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  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:27:37 PM
Beetle's Benchmark ... top is running total since 12/26/03, while bottom is current quarter.

QQQQ not acting all that strong, with DIA/SPY stronger.

Some end of year rebalancing? Link

 
 
  Tab Gilles   12/22/20,  10:15:19 PM
Per Linda's 3:09:07 PM posting on the $GHA, I agree that this sector has been weak of late. There was a bearish MACD divergence earlier this month. I'm using the 10/20-emas crossovers along with other technicals. $NASI has been declining. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:04:01 PM
Various energy futures with 5 and 20-day net % changes at this Link

Weekly inventory figures would suggest that refiners turned on the spigots for distillates. Note futures foward month prices compared to near-month.

Summer driving season still reflected in unleaded gas, which takes more refining.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:57:22 PM
The OEX achieved a new daily closing high for the year today. The daily candle was a sturdy-bodied candle sitting on top of the former broadening formation. I like the look of the candle. I just don't like what's underneath it: former leading indices that hint at developing weakness. The SOX, of course, is one, not participating in the day's gains and printing a doji beneath its 200-ema. Another was the GHA, a former high-flying index that shows a small loss. The GSO rebounded, but only to a possible right-shoulder level for a H&S on its daily chart. The networkers were positive, too, but also moved up only to a possible right-shoulder level on the daily chart, with the NWX perhaps needing a deeper fall before it completes a bigger right shoulder for an inverse H&S.

The OEX gained on the backs of its retailers and some other selected stocks, such as PFE and MO. PFE was rebounding from its recent pounding, but now moves into a gap zone, so might find resistance stiffer. It stands to reason, then, that OEX traders want to follow the RLX, too. The RLX is in a formation that could be variously described as a possible bull flag/inverse H&S or bearish right triangle. An upside break above 460, the bull flag's resistance, confirmed by a move above the 12/15 high of 460.63, would be bullish for the OEX, too, in all likelihood. A drop below 547.92, confirmed by a later drop below the 50-dma, would signal that the OEX had lost its support from the retailers. A retracement bracket fitted from the August low to the November high shows strong correlation with the RLX's consolidation zones, so it may be that the RLX is temporarily topping out, but we'll have to watch those levels to be sure.

The TRAN printed a doji at the top of its climb, usually a fair sign that it will retreat or consolidate sideways a day or two, so the TRAN may not be much help to general market strength. Market bulls need to see the TRAN and RLX at least continue to hold their own, while the tech-related indices gather strength and break out of various consolidation patterns. The GSO, NWX and SOX need to rise high enough to negate their potential H&S's on their daily charts. Until those things happen, the rise remains somewhat suspect.

Suspect or not, the OEX has risen, and nothing in today's internals suggested that it was time to begin picking a top, as I mentioned a couple of times on the Monitor. Bulls want to see it stay above 573.50-574 to avoid confirming a H&S on its 15-minute chart. A fall below that level would also constitute a break below the five-minute 100/130-ema's, often important support for the OEX as it's been climbing. Bulls want to see a rise to a new high.

Depending on how other indices behave tomorrow, dips to those five-minute 100/130-ema's might be bought, but if all the underpinnings of the market and the internals are less than bullish, buying the dips might best be avoided.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  9:48:36 PM
February Crude Oil futures (cl05g) $44.23 ... down a penny.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  9:35:03 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/22/20,  6:05:28 PM
Alert - YUKOS takeover by Russia is complete

(CBS.MW) Rosneft, Russia's state-owned gas company, said Wednesday it has acquired BaikalFinance, the obscure holding company that won the bidding for Yukos, according to wire service reports. Terms of the deal weren't disclosed, Dow Jones reported. BaikalFinance's emergence as the auction winner prompted critics to suspect that the Russian state was orchestrating a takeover of Yukos

In the past several months, the Russian government has announced it would fold Rosneft into the oil assets of the natural gas giant, Gazprom, and form a new company. Now with Rosneft acquiring the YUKOS asset the deal will be complete and the Russian government will now be in control of all three wrapped into one. That company, will be called Gazpromneft

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  5:28:13 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

Counted the number of buy program premiums that too place up to each hour. Still investigating, but might be some end of year rebalancing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  4:14:00 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Swing trade long full position in the underlying QQQQ at $39.74, stop $39.50, initial upside target is $40.25.

Swing trade long full position in the underlying shares of SBC Communications (SBC) at $26.04, stop $25.50, target $27.00.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/22/20,  4:09:45 PM
No holiday from economics tomorrow:

Tomorrows economic reports:
08:30 Jobless Claims (est 335,000, last 317,000)
08:30 Durable Goods (est +0.7%, last -0.4%)
08:30 Personal Income (est +0.2%, last +0.6%)
09:45 Consumer Sentiment (est 95.7, last 95.7)
10:00 New Home Sales (est 1.2M, last 1.226M)
10:00 Monthly Mass Layoffs (last 1,241)
10:30 ECRI Weekly Leading Index (last 133.6)
10:30 Weekly Nat Gas Storage Report (last 3,150)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  4:01:34 PM
The 30 min channel has tilted up for QQQQ, with support up to 39.60 and resistance 39.84. The zombie 30 min cycle oscillators, still in their all-day downphase, continue to point south, obviously corrective. If this is the downphase, the next up should be a doozy. A move above yesterday's 39.93 high should do it, but the Qs need to break 39.75 first, resistance since 11AM.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:58:23 PM
QQQQ ... you've probably already noticed this, but mid-point of today's high/low would be $39.71.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:56:05 PM
QQQQ $39.74 .... quick... slap some mud up there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  3:54:41 PM
Depending on what happens into the last few minutes of trading, the OEX might manage better than a doji or near doji sitting on top of the former broadening channel. It might manage a study little candle with small shadows to the top and bottom. So far, however, anyone buying this morning's breakout to a new recent high is underwater, although admittedly not by much. Spreads and commissions will probably still make such a position a losing one into the close. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow, but no breakout plays have worked on a daily basis since early November, with the OEX always reversing after each breakout. This one looks different in form, but anyone making a decision to hold overnight should be aware of this development since early November and make the decision with that knowledge in mind.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:54:15 PM
QQQQ $39.77 +0.20% .... crack in the spillway?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:53:24 PM
ImmuCell (ICCC) $9.45 +122.35% ... looks to close at session high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:51:20 PM
Those offers are "granite-like!" QQQQ $39.74

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:49:19 PM
C'mon bulls ... pound those offers to the close! QQQQ $39.74

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  3:42:21 PM
The SOX remains below its 200-ema.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  3:39:25 PM
Watch 574 on the OEX, as a drop below that level confirms a H&S on the 15-minute chart. We've seen a lot of these set up and confirm today, but few (if any) that have met downside targets. So far, bulls are still able to absorb whatever stock is thrown at them.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  3:35:50 PM
This week, the intraday charts of the RLX and OEX show remarkable similarities in shape, hinting that we should be paying attention to the RLX, too. Of the 34 companies that comprise the $RLX, the OEX shares only seven, with those being HD, LTD, MAY, RSH, S, TOY and WMT.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  3:29:22 PM
QQQQ us yo ti 39.74 here, back to its 12PM levels and reversing most of the minor damage caused by the 30 min cycle downphase so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:28:37 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,209.36 , QQQQ $39.74

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:26:39 PM
Deleted IWO comments regarding WEEKLY Levels.

Correct WEEKLY Pivot levels are ... $64.05, $65.11, Piv = $66.18, $67.24, $68.31.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  3:23:56 PM
Volume continues to thin, with just 63.9M QQQQ shares traded so far, compared with yesterday's 83.2M and the ADV of 93.9M.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  3:14:21 PM
I was just about to type a note about the conditions needed for the OEX to continue to show vulnerability to a decline toward 573 when it shot up and was knocked back down, unless that last five-minute spike represented a bad tick. The move skewed the Keltner channels, so we'll have to wait a few more minutes to get those numbers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:13:25 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  3:09:42 PM
Retests of 39.70-.72 QQQQ here as the short cycle upphase strengthens. 30 and 60 min channel resistance are lined up at 39.81, but a move above 39.72 will stop the weak 30 min downphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  3:09:07 PM
I'm still watching the GSO and GHA in addition to the SOX, looking for signs that these three indices might be showing signs of particular strength and am not seeing them yet. (Note: the SOX did break higher, toward another test of its 200-ema, as I typed.) The GHA may be trying to round into a saucer-bottom shape on its five-minute chart, but it's nearer the bottom of its day's range than the top. On the five-minute chart, the GSO pulls back in what had looked like a possible bull flag, but that flag is extending way past what it should, timewise.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:06:42 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  3:03:09 PM
As was true earlier today, the TRIN hasn't really been supporting a pick-the-top exercise. The advdec line has been easing lower since about 11:00, but on a light-volume day, that can be changed quite readily.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  3:02:18 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,208.33 , QQQQ $39.69

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  2:54:38 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,207.34 , QQQQ $39.65

.... scratch, scratch, scratch

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  2:53:31 PM
QQQQ is continuing its downward drift as the short cycle begins to uptick. A break of either 39.60 or the 39.70-.72 zone should hopefully see some followthrough, and while the 30 and 60 min cycles still favor a move to the downside, they've been crying wolf all day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  2:52:45 PM
The OEX's 7-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX is vulnerable down to 573.84-573.21.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  2:45:31 PM
Buy Program premium ... SPX 1,207.57 , QQQQ $39.65

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  2:43:50 PM
The TRAN isn't giving many clues as to immediate direction. Five-minute MACD flattens and candles appear between Keltner resistance and support on that chart, with both looking about equally weighted.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  2:40:37 PM
Jonathan notes QQQQ resistance at $39.70 and $39.72.

On 60-minute interval chart, these also mark two hourly "dojis".

Seems like a lot of buy program premiums, which now look to have had no impact, were also found around QQQQ $39.70.

I set an alert about 30-minutes ago at $39.77, with though if we see trade there, then QQQQ should be free to run.

Bulls have some work to do.

SOX.X 423.26 -0.27% and Biotech Index (BTK.X) 532.35 -0.04% not helping much.

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  2:38:28 PM
Reader Robert notes the lack of traction today. I agree, and note that volume is very light at 58M QQQQ shares so far. The fact that this is occurring during a synchronous 30 and 60 min cycle downphase is again good news for the bulls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  2:36:59 PM
Scanning a list of sectors, I see that in addition to the RLX, the NWX (the networking index) and $DJUSHB (the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index) are two indices performing well. The XAL, the Airline Index, outdoes all of those, however, up 2.30% as I type. The DRG also gains.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  2:36:51 PM
Continuous Oil ($WTIC) chart and $0.25 box at this Link

I have a session low of $43.50 for my Feb. futures trade, so unless we were to see a trade at $46.25 before the close, should see new column of "O" to at least $43.75.

$0.50 box chart at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  2:29:15 PM
Back from dodjing a Montreal hail storm to find almost nothing changed on QQQQ. The price remains uncertainly below declining 7200 period SMA resistance, but the 30 and 60 min cycle downphases have been very weak and clearly corrective. In the wake of yesterday's strong upphases, that's a very good sign for bulls. Key resistance is at 39.70-.72, while 30 min channel support is at 39.55.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  2:26:00 PM
The SOX has confirmed a two-headed H&S formation on its five-minute chart, and is now retesting the neckline area at about 423.50. The SOX is at 423.03 as I type. A break to a new LOD would further confirm that neckline break, but follow-through on these confirmed H&S's has been difficult to find on indices today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  2:21:28 PM
Today's bond market yield trade and impact it has had on the 5-day net basis point and 20-day net basis point at this Link

Steepening over last 5-days

more flat, bell curve-like over 20-days.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  2:20:34 PM
A reminder: the Nikkei will be closed tonight for a one-day holiday, so we won't have the Nikkei's trading behavior against which to measure the behavior of our futures.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  2:14:08 PM
OEX 574.75 held as resistance on this first test. If the OEX rolls down, watch for possible support at the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 573.56 and 573.10, respectively. I do note that the advdec line confirmed its H&S on its five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  2:14:02 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  2:02:44 PM
Bouncing from just above its five-minute 100/130-ema's, the OEX heads straight up to retest 574.75 S/R, currently at 574.67.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  2:02:27 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  1:59:58 PM
The SOX turned down with other indices. Watch the converging 100-ema and 50-sma, with the lowest of those at 418.80. Tech bulls want that support to hold. The SOX is at 422.64 as I type, just above the day's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  1:48:36 PM
The OEX today is in a doji region (an invented term). Every time the OEX breaks above the rising trendline that had marked its broadening formation and prints a candle above it, the daily candle printed is a doji or near-doji, an indication of indecision. Will today be the third day?

 
 
  James Brown   12/22/20,  1:41:56 PM
QCOM is having a decent session up 1.45% to $44.62. Yesterday after the closing bell the company raised its Q1 guidance and this morning BAC reiterated its buy rating on the stock. I would still wait for shares to clear round-number resistance at $45.00 before considering new long positions.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  1:38:33 PM
The RLX, a strong gainer today, has been finding resistance at its 30-sma, with that average currently at 455.74 and the RLX at 454.67. The RLX has neither broken above a potential bull flag (bullish view of the formation) nor fallen below the support of a potential bearish right triangle (bearish view of the formation).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  1:31:50 PM
Buy Program Premium SPX 1,209.07 , QQQQ $39.72

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  1:31:18 PM
Citigroup (NYSE:C) $47.99 +1.69% ... big move from one of the worlds largest banks.

Outside of MMM, C perhaps my second-most "key stock" for market's direction.

 
 
  James Brown   12/22/20,  1:29:09 PM
For the TASR fans out there...the company announced its largest "research" contract in the company's history of $515,000 for the Dept. of Defense (NAVY) to produce a shoulder-fired weapon. TASR is calling it the new XREP or Extended Range Electronic Projectile.

 
 
  Mark Davis   12/22/20,  1:24:51 PM
Linda I'm on my knees right now praying this is the stop-running push to the downside (that holds) and we won't head any lower.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  1:22:57 PM
The TRAN's 15-minute chart shows the TRAN holding near the day's high all the while that the 15-minute MACD cycles lower. If the TRAN can keep that up, that's a bullish development. We used to hear a lot about bifurcated markets, though, and in techland, the underpinnings do not look as bullish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  1:16:33 PM
Since late Monday, the GHA has been climbing in a rising regression channel off Monday's low, a likely bear flag. The 50% retracement of the decline off Monday's high lies at about 316, with the GHA currently at 315.05, still within the flag. Tech bears want to see the GHA break down out of that flag before retracing more than 50% of the decline. Tech bulls want to see it climb above that level and maintain levels above it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  1:13:28 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  1:06:26 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Think about today's yield curve steepening and recent narrowing, and trade in oil, then implications for economy (expansion, steady growth).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  1:00:47 PM
Neither the GSO, GHA nor SOX has made a definitive move either to the downside or upside. Only the GSO participates to any degree in these intraday rallies, and it does so within the context of a potential right-shoulder-building exercise for a formation spotted on its daily chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  12:56:23 PM
The OEX has been maintaining 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 574.23, and even 15-minute closes above a higher one, currently at 574.92, just as bulls would hope. It needs to move to a new daily high, perhaps toward 576.52 upper Keltner resistance on that chart, to maintain upward momentum.

 
 
  James Brown   12/22/20,  12:52:17 PM
OI call play ZBRA is up 2.9% and breaking through resistance at $56.00 and its simple 100-dma. The stock has also broken into its gap from October.

 
 
  James Brown   12/22/20,  12:50:09 PM
MGIC Investment (MTG) is breaking out over strong resistance at its simple 200-dma near $69.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  12:49:36 PM
The TRAN still hovers near the supposed neckline for a H&S on top of its 15-minute chart. It just won't break down. Soon, if bears can't break the transports, bulls make take over and sent them higher, but currently, the TRAN looks vulnerable down to 3785.88 at least.

 
 
  James Brown   12/22/20,  12:48:22 PM
AutoZone (AZO) is up about 1% and breaking out over round-number, psychological resistance at the $90.00 level for the first time in months. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $120 target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  12:44:28 PM
The advdec line tests the neckline of its potential H&S. Interesting to watch to see if it follows traditional technical analysis. I'm always skeptical of volume patterns during the lunchtime lull, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  12:40:30 PM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,208.90 , QQQQ $39.70

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  12:37:26 PM
Several of us have mentioned the SOX's 200-ema overhead at 426.44. We should also mention others average on the SOX's chart, the converging 100-ema at 418.81 and 50-sma at 419.13. Tech bulls do not want to see the SOX fall below and maintain levels below those averages.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  12:28:29 PM
Swing trade long alert ... for SBC Communications (SBC) $26.04 here, stop $25.50, target $27.00.

See last night's Index Trader Wrap at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  12:24:29 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  12:23:26 PM
There's a H&S-ish formation on the advdec line. There's always a question as to whether these indicators adhere to expectations presented from chart formations, MA's, or trendlines, but they sometimes do. Therefore, market bulls don't want to see the advdec line drop below the +1000 level, the likely neckline area.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  12:17:15 PM
I'm still watching GHA, GSO and SOX for any sign of strength other than expected rebounds to resistance. Haven't seen the GHA break to the upside out of a potential bull flag on the daily chart or the SOX or GSO push above the potential right-shoulder level for possible H&S's on their daily charts. Haven't seen the SOX maintain levels about its 200-ema. This is akin to a new house rising from pillars that aren't set right. Support for the rising structure is tenuous, but it's still gonna rise until it falls. Someone needs to shore up those pillars if it's going to hold up, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  12:12:32 PM
Buy program premium SPX 1,209.56 , QQQQ $39.74

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  12:11:58 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  12:11:03 PM
Stepping away for my appointment- back later this afternoon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  12:10:29 PM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,209.74 , QQQQ $39.72

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  12:07:08 PM
Volume for QQQQ has dried up on the move below the 7200-tick SMA (currently at 39.77. The short cycles are a choppy mess but are trying to turn up. QQQQ hasn't been able to crack 39.65 yet, despite the new 30 min cycle downphase, and so far the sellers have been lot weaker than the buyers, even on the Qs. Currently 30 min channel support is at 39.60, with 60 min support below at 39.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  12:02:56 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  12:01:57 PM
The TRAN isn't exactly plummeting here, still holding slightly above the neckline for its latest H&S on the 15-minute chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  11:58:22 AM
The OEX wasn't through testing that Keltner support, as I speculated that it might not be. Support thins out below the OEX's current position, but the 15-minute chart suggests that it was trying to converge near 574.25 before the OEX began declining. As long as there's a 15-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 573.56, the OEX preserves a short-term bullish outlook, but bulls should have been following the OEX higher with their stops and know where they are for their own trading styles.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  11:50:39 AM
QQQQ $39.73 +0.13% ... with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  11:42:38 AM
The GHA never did reach a new day's high. It's pulled back now, perhaps into a bull flag on the three-minute chart. Tech bulls need to see the GHA, whose component stocks are important in NDX performance, break above that bull flag and move to a new high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  11:41:45 AM
39.70 broke briefly and the bounce has just failed at 39.75 QQQQ. A short cycle downphase is still in effect and the volume on the bounce was light.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  11:38:39 AM
The OEX did find five-minute support where bulls would hope it would, perserving breakout status on the five-minute chart (and on the seven-minute one). Some chart characteristics suggest it may not be through testing that support, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  11:32:09 AM
The TRAN is hanging in near the high of the day, but now creates another potential H&S at the top of its climb, neckline currently about 3790, downside target about 3774, the same as the earlier downside target, never met. As I type, the TRAN is at 3795.74.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  11:28:05 AM
The OEX sinks down to test Keltner support. On the seven-minute chart, usually more reliable than the five-minute, that support looks more tenuous than on the five-minute, where it looks nearly rock-solid from about 574.54-574.79. Bulls would really like to see a five-minute close above that support, or that throws the breakout scenario into question.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  11:27:51 AM
QQQQ's testing 39.70 support now, a key confluence and coincidentally also 7200-tick SMA support. The 30 min channel has stalled in its upphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  11:13:44 AM
As just mentioned in my previous post, the RLX has been a big gainer today. It's trading in a possible bull flag pulling back from resistance, with the OEX's pattern within that flag a potential inverse H&S. I don't trust those forms as much as bottoming inverse H&S, but this one has a neckline at the RLX's bull-flag upper resistance. A RLX move above 460 would constitute an upside break of the flag and inverse H&S neckline, to be confirmed by a move above the 12/15 high of 460.63.

That's the bullish view, but there's always a bearish one, too, isn't there? When viewed differently, that pattern could be a bearish right triangle, a series of lower highs and a horizontal bottom support. A decline below 447.92 would tend to confirm that more bearish interpretation.

As I type, the RLX is at 455.77, between the two trendlines.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  11:10:23 AM
11:07 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  11:07:19 AM
The RLX has been a big leader to the upside today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  11:06:39 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  11:04:40 AM
The OEX looks poised to retreat or consolidate sideways. Keltner support is attempting to firm up near 574.71-574.80, and bulls would like to see that hold.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  11:02:17 AM
30 min channel support is up to 39.60 QQQQ, resistance now 39.93. A failure straight from here would close a bearish divergence in the 30 min cycle, but it will have to get and stay below 39.70 for at least 10 minutes to do so. Bonds are at a session low, TNX +4.1 bps at 4.209%. Crude oil is very weak, down 3.39% at 44.20 after touching a low of 43.65.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  11:01:57 AM
The GSO is pausing at the right-shoulder level for a potential H&S on its daily chart. The behavior of the GSO (potential H&S), the GHA (potential bear flag after a fall from the 12/14 high, within the context of a larger potential bull flag pullback off the early December highs), and the SOX (currently again challenging its 200-ema but not yet able to maintain levels above it) bear watching, as there's some underlying weakness in techland, and that weakness needs to be overcome. It can happen, but watch.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:57:23 AM
The GHA, an index with components important to NDX performance, is trying to recover off the lows and move to a new high of the day, but hasn't made it there yet. The GHA broke down this morning below a bear flag established after the steep fall from the 12/14 high. It's possible that the GHA has just been in the process of widening its bear flag, so this index's behavior bears watching as it approaches 316.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:57:12 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $24.41 +1.62% ... back above its 200-day SMA ($24.17)

Hammered by upside alerts after the oil numbers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:55:27 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,819 +0.55% ... DAILY R2

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:53:42 AM
QQQQ $39.88 +0.5% ... WEEKLY Pivot here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:53:38 AM
I'm still seeing bearish divergence, Keltner style, on the OEX's 15-minute chart, but I'm also noting a TRIN that suggests that it's not time to try to pick a top just yet. As Keene said a few minutes ago on the Futures side, if you're already in a bullish play, enjoy the ride, but keeps these factors in mind. Under these conditions, buying breakout plays seems iffy, but that's not what TRIN says and not what the 5-minute OEX Keltner chart suggests. There's been a breakout on that chart, with the Keltners designed specifically to identify breakout plays. That shorter-term chart suggests that as long as the OEX shows five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 574.26, but preferably above the lines currently at 575.20 and 574.57, it's in breakout mode. If you did enter on a breakout to a new high, then continue to follow the OEX higher with your stops.

Note, as I typed, the OEX moved higher and so did those appropriate Keltner levels, by a few cents in each case.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:50:44 AM
Whole Foods Market (WFMI) $96.85 +2.35% ... bullish "cup and handle"

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/22/20,  10:50:06 AM
Jeff we have an all time high on the NYA also, 7190. Previous high was 7164 made back in July 2000.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:47:16 AM
All-time high alert ... Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 649.11 +0.45%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:45:34 AM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,210.21 , QQQQ $39.84

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:43:10 AM
The GSO has been a strong gainer all morning, rebounding from yesterday's low, but it's rebounding into the right shoulder level for a potential H&S at the top of its months-long climb. Watch the GSO for further clues as to market direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:41:41 AM
The OEX shows potential Keltner style bearish divergence on the 15-minute chart. Those who might be in bullish plays should keep this in mind. That bearish divergence can be erased but currently doesn't inspire great confidence in entering new breakout plays.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:38:43 AM
The TRAN pierced 3800 and is at 3800.77 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:37:36 AM
The GHA saw a big climb, but a climb from the day's low, the bottom of a presumed bear flag after the tumble from the 12/14 high. The GHA remains within that newly broadened bear flag formation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  10:37:22 AM
QQQQ has hit upper 30 and 60 min Keltner resistance at 39.77. The bears are pushing back as I type, but the bias will remain to the upside above prior resistance of 39.65.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:36:12 AM
The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart suggests next upside target (and resistance) at 576.12 if the OEX maintains a 15-minute close above the line currently at 574.52.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:35:15 AM
Swing trade long alert ... for the QQQQ at $39.74, stop $39.50, target $40.25 (target may be raised as trade progresses).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  10:34:48 AM
Session high for QQQQ at 39.74, low for gold and silver at 441.80/6.875 respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:34:22 AM
The OEX breaks above yesterday's high, heading up toward a test of the 12/16 high of 575.26, presumed next resistance. The daily Keltner chart suggests that the OEX currently faces Keltner resistance on a closing (daily) basis at 574.17 and 576.82.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:33:53 AM
Huuuuuuuuuuge buy program underway

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:33:18 AM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,208.00 , QQQQ $39.70

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:32:41 AM
Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,207.84 , QQQQ $39.68

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:32:34 AM
Advdec line climbing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:31:40 AM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,207.26 , QQQQ $39.63

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  10:30:56 AM
Session low for Nymex crude at 45.25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  10:30:26 AM
The short cycle downphase for QQQQ is so far just a choppy drift, and the 30 min cycle downphase is more of a downtick in the Keltner channels, with 30 and 60 min support holding firm at 39.40. 7200-tick SMA resistance is currently at 39.59 as QQQQ continues to dance around it. There was a nominally lower low on the last dip to 39.48, but 39.40 is also a strong confluence support in addition to the keltner support. Traders seeking to spare themselves potential hours of guesswork in the current blender can wait for a break of 39.40 or 39.72.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/22/20,  10:30:19 AM
Oil Inventories
Crude = +2.1MB
Distillate = +600KB
Gas = +1.8MB

API numbers
Crude +2.8MB
Distillate +315,000
Gas +4.0MB

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:29:52 AM
Two buy program premiums early at 09:50 and 10:00 AM from SPX 1,205

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:29:48 AM
The BIX has broken out to the upside already today, at 379.94 as I type. It needs other indices to follow along.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:27:08 AM
Like the OEX today, the TRAN is refusing to fall toward its downside targets. It's currently clinging to the neckline of its H&S. Although bulls don't like to see bearish formations set up and then be confirmed, bears don't like to see prices refuse to meet downside targets. All in all, I'd interpret this as bears selling into the highs, but bulls so far standing their ground, able to absorb the supply.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:24:56 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:20:51 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:13:29 AM
The TRAN reached a higher high than that May 1999 high, but is now below it again, showing a perhaps-confirmed H&S at the top of its climb on the five-minute chart. The potential H&S shows bearish intentions, selling at the top, but we have to see whether the downside target is met to determine whether bears can deliver on those intentions. That downside target is about 3774, with the TRAN currently at 3788.52.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  10:12:28 AM
Session low for gold here at 442.30. Nymex crude is up .05 to 45.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:07:55 AM
On the 15-minute Keltner chart, nearby overhead resistance looks stronger than nearby support, just as it did on the three-minute chart. That suggests some downward pressure on the OEX and perhaps a need to at least consolidate sideways if not pullback to somewhere between 570.50-571.70. The OEX has perhaps exhibited some signs of downward pressure, but also a reluctance to give in to that pressure.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  10:07:52 AM
QQQQ's 30 min channel lines up with 60 min channel support at 39.40. The slower 60 min channel has flattened from its previous uptrend, and a move below 39.45 for 10 minutes should be sufficient to kick off the 60 min downphase as well.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  10:03:37 AM
I suspect that the slow drift lower is the interplay of the 30 minute cycle rollover against the 60 min cycle upphase not yet ended. We've seen these intraday cycle tops result in hours of chop before the price trend reverses- hopefully that won't be the case today.

I have to leave for a lunch appointment at noon that should be over before 2PM, and will be back shortly thereafter.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  10:02:22 AM
10:00 Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  10:02:02 AM
The OEX refuses to fall after breaking through that trendline. Still some underlying bullishness showing up here as every trendline break is met with buying or at least with not-further-selling in this instance. Be careful trying to pick a top in that kind of environment.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  10:01:23 AM
The Fed has announced a 3.25B 13-day repo with no expiries, for a net add of 3.25B for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:59:47 AM
The OEX again falls through the ascending trendline off Monday afternoon's last three-minute low. It fell through that same trendline earlier this morning and bounced strongly back above it before the completion of the three-minute candle that had pierced it. It's not bouncing back so strongly currently, but does still challenge that trendline, at about 572.70 now. I'm looking forward to reading Jane's updates on internals, but right now, TRIN's number and the advdec absence of pattern aren't giving me any clues, either.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:54:58 AM
The SOX hasn't been able to make it above the 200-ema yet this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:53:23 AM
Keltner lines are still scattered on the OEX, but here's what shows up so far, at least on the three-minute chart. Keltner resistance is beginning to firm near 573.40-573.60, but there's intervening, lighter resistance at 572.89, too. Support is trying to firm between 572.36-572.62, but doesn't yet look quite as strong as that resistance. Firmer support is near 571.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  9:47:24 AM
QQQQ is back below the 7200-tick SMA line, with a rejection at the highs to go along with a rejection at the lows. Volume is stronger than it feels, with 7.6M QQQQ shares traded so far. A move below the 39.52 low should give QQQQ some downside followthrough.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:43:22 AM
As I type, the SOX challenges its 200-ema.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:42:34 AM
The TRAN hovers near yesterday's high but hasn't yet (as this was prepared) made a run for the May,1999 high of 3797.05. The TRAN is at 3793.20 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/22/20,  9:41:40 AM
I'm up and running, but running late.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  9:41:03 AM
The 30 min cycle channel support has decline to 39.40 based on the pre-open weakness, but the upper band has risen to 39.80 on the opening bounce, with price ticking back above 7200-tick resistance as I type. Direction is still up for grabs, but the 30 min cycle oscillators are overbought and should be running on fumes here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:39:00 AM
Keltner charts give few clues as to ultimate direction this morning, at least the short-term intraday charts. The OEX's strong move down and then strong bounce scattered the lines, so that it's difficult to judge whether support or resistance is stronger.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  9:37:18 AM
Gold is down .1 at 443, withs euro and CAD futures lightly negative as well. HUI is down .18% at 215.86, XAU -.25% at 99.71.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:35:45 AM
Strong OEX bounce after confirming the double-top formation. No new high yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:32:33 AM
Downside target for the OEX's double-top formation on the three-minute chart is about 570.85. Bulls would like to see that target not met, while bears want to see it exceeded.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:30:53 AM
The OEX just confirmed a double-top formation on its three-minute chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  9:30:50 AM
QQQQ continues to hold below the 7200 tick SMA resistance line at 39.62, trading a low of 39.54 and retesting yesterday's 3:35PM low. If QQQQ holds below the 7200-tick SMA following the cash open, the 30 min cycle downphase should kick off from yesterday's closing overbought levels. Current channel support remains 39.45, but should continue to drop once the volume picks up after 9:30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  9:23:31 AM
Session high for 10-year notes here, TNX down to unchanged at 4.168%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  9:23:23 AM
Futures aren't telling us much this morning, except that NQ futures did confirm the H&S at the top of the overnight high and then fall to meet their downside target. We'll have to look at how internals set up this morning for guidance. Not having watched the ebb and flow of the markets yesterday and being not quite up to speed mentally after yesterday's trip, I'm going to be tentative about making suggestions this morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  8:45:38 AM
Session lows for QQQQ and NQ, QQQQ -.12 to 39.56. The 30 min cycle channel is rolling over, with support currently down to 39.45.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  8:36:34 AM
Equities are lower following the 8:30 data, with QQQQ now -.07 at 39.61, a session low. Ten year notes remain weak, TNX +1.6 bps at 4.186%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  8:35:36 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. Q3 CORE PCE UP 0.9% VS 0.7% PREV EST.

8:30am U.S. Q3 GROWTH LED BY CONSUMER SPENDING

8:30am U.S. Q3 REVISIONS DUE TO LOWER IMPORTS

8:30am U.S. Q3 GDP ABOVE CONSENSUS 3.9% GAIN

8:30am U.S. Q3 GDP UP 4.0% VS 3.9% PREV EST.

The Chain Deflator came in at 1.4% vs. 1.3% exp.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  7:39:12 AM
We await the 8:30 release of the Q3 GDP (final), est. 3.9%, and the Chain deflator, est. 1.3%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/22/20,  7:38:13 AM
The markets appear to be ignoring the latest chapter in the FNM saga, as the company's board accepted CEO Franklin Raines' and CFO J.T. Howard's resignations last night. ES is currently up .5 to 1208.5, NQ +2 to 1618, YM +2 to 10765 and QQQQ -.2 to 39.66. Gold is up 80 cents to 443.90, silver flat at 6.93, ten year notes down .09 to 112.1094 and crude oil -.175 to 45.575.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/22/20,  6:51:21 AM
Good morning. Boosted by Intel's upgrade, most Asian and European chip-related issues have gained overnight, boosting most bourses. The Nikkei was one, closing above 11,200. This morning, news hits that an EU court has upheld sanctions against Microsoft. Our futures held steady while Asian markets traded, then climbed as European markets did. As this report was prepared, NQ futures showed a potential H&S at the top of the overnight climb, however. As of 6:30 EST, gold was up $0.60 and crude, down $0.22. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

In Japan, November's exports increased 13.4%. Higher crude prices also drove up imports by 28%, but investors were cheered by stronger exports of Japanese autos and steel. Lehman Brothers' upgrade of Intel also helped chip-related issues, in Japan and throughout Asia. With investors also cheered by gains on U.S. markets, the Nikkei opened above 11,200 and coiled above that level all day Wednesday except for one brief dip below it. The Nikkei closed higher by 83.52 points or 0.75%, at 11,209.44. Tomorrow, the Nikkei will be closed for a one-day holiday.

In stock-specific news, Toyota released its estimate of group global sales for 2005, an estimate that anticipates 7% growth from this year's number. The stock ended higher by 0.5%. Sanyo Electronics quantified the hit it would take due to a series of earthquakes earlier this year, saying it would see a net loss, and the stock dropped 4%. NTT DoCoMo fell after revealing a planned $3 million investment in Linux software developer Monta Vista Software.

Most other Asian markets gained, too, with commodities performing well and chip-related issues helping boost Asian bourses. One chip-related stock not seeing gains was Samsung Electronics, slipping after market researcher Gartner Inc. affirmed the company's second-place standing in global semiconductor sales for 2004. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.23%. South Korea's SK Corp gained after Moody's Investors Service upped the outlook on its ratings to a positive outlook rather than the previous stable outlook. In other news in Korea, joint-venture LG Philips lowered guidance and fell. The Kospi gained, but only a modest 0.06%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.38%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng also declined, by 0.21%. China's Q3 GDP increased 13.9% in November and retail sales rose by a near-record 13.9%. The Shanghai Composite climbed 2.54%.

Most European markets currently gain, too, with chip-related issues performing well. German chip manufacturer Infineon is listed as a volume leader in a Marketwatch.com article. Big news has been the EU court's upholding of antitrust sanctions imposed against Microsoft. In other news, Swiss pharmaceutical Roche announced that Swiss regulatory authorities conveyed marketing authorization for the company's treatment for chronic hepatitis B. Also, EADS shares rose after the company announced that it did not foresee a merger between two satellite units, as the consolidation would not benefit shareholders in the current climate.

As of 6:42 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 35.90 points or 0.76%, at 4,768.90. The CAC 40 was higher by 35.15 points or 0.93%, at 3,805.18. The DAX had climbed 29.55 points or 0.70%, to 4,243.94.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/21/20,  10:41:05 PM
In my last post last night before leaving for an out-of-town appointment today, I noted that the OEX had ended the day Monday at the midline of a rising regression channel. If the OEX was weak, I noted, it would be likely to roll down through the bottom of the channel, but if it was strong, it would likely find support at the midline and climb through to the top. I thought it possible that the OEX might test 566.85 before a final determination as to strength or weakness was made.

The OEX obviously chose strength, with at least some internals supporting that strength. I wasn't surprised, when I looked, to see that the TRAN had led the way again, with that index printing a new multi-year high. I also wasn't particularly surprised, though, to see the SOX below both its 200-ema and 200-sma.

The TRAN ended less than five points below the 3797.05 swing high from May, 1999, the last high before the TRAN began falling into the bear market low. The Nasdaq ended the day just below the year's high. The Dow ended the day about 6 points above its January high, breaking out to a new high. The OEX ended at a level that has been resistance on a daily closing basis since January. Obviously the day ended at an important level across many indices. Narrowing back to the OEX, this level does not look like the obvious breakout level for a cup-and-handle formation. Just under 600 looks more appropriate, but the shape of the OEX's movement is that of a potential cup-and-handle, with breakouts to a new year's highs suggesting a confirmation of a cup-and-handle formation.

Breakout plays have not been particularly successful since early November. Since then, each upside breakout was soon met with selling and a reversal. Breakout plays accrue extra risk, then, particularly in a light-volume environment on a holiday week. If you're inclined to trade that late volume and to risk breakout plays, make sure first that internals support the play and then be prepared to bail quickly if the bottom should fall out. Bears might watch for rollovers from these important resistance levels, but they'll need even more confirmation from internals before risking a bearish entry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/21/20,  9:09:20 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/21/20,  8:43:29 PM
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