Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  OI Technical Staff   12/23/20,  11:44:49 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  11:34:35 PM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  11:16:20 PM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) with updated WEEKLY pivot matrix at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:53:11 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

I'll update the Dollar Index (dx00y) WEEKLY Close this weekend when the dollar closes on Friday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:06:42 PM
Clausing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  4:43:04 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Bought three (3) Pfizer PFE March $25 puts (PFE-OE) at the offer of $1.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  4:05:06 PM
Second that, Linda. Have a happy and safe Christmas, all.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  4:03:33 PM
A clothesline drop back below the 7200 SMA has QQQQ back to sub-39.75 territory. Volume is so far less than half of the ADV, just 45.1M shares so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  4:02:37 PM
iShares Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) $67.25 +0.44% ... matches prior 52-weeker at the close!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  4:01:21 PM
Whether you're celebrating a religious holiday or just the three-day weekend, peace and joy to all.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  3:57:44 PM
Pulte Home (PHM) alert $62.99 -0.83% ... looks to close back in that "blue zone of support." Good enough for this bull and will continue to hold.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  3:50:23 PM
Still sideways to slightly down on the OEX. Bulls couldn't deliver on the late-day attempt to push the OEX higher, at least not yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  3:39:05 PM
Despite what charts said, despite resistance holding and the OEX heading lower, it now turns higher. As I type, seven-minute Keltner signals no longer give any preference to down versus up, or vice versa.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  3:30:11 PM
QQQQ's still in never-never land, while euro futures brak to a new high, +.92% at 1.3528. Gold, silver, oil and bond are currently closed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  3:29:21 PM
The OEX resistance is holding, and the OEX still looks vulnerable down to 575.14-575.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  3:26:51 PM
If the OEX were to end the day near its current level, the weekly candle would be a strong one--a tall white candle with only a small upper shadow. The weekly close would be the highest close since March, 2002. This higher close would bring the OEX into the 575-595 S/R zone from several periods in 2001 and 2002, however. As I mentioned earlier in the week, the lip of a rounding bottom formation looks to me as if it should be up near 600 rather than at the current level, so the OEX might slow its ascent as it moves into this S/R zone ahead of 600.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  3:08:35 PM
Here's the OEX test of resistance that I mentioned in my 15:01 post.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   12/23/20,  3:05:29 PM
Further observations: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  3:03:25 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  3:01:47 PM
The OEX now looks vulnerable to 575-575.50, although perhaps not before a retest of resistance. Take these chart updates with a grain of salt today, however, as the low volume can lead to some moves not predicted by the charts.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  3:00:10 PM
The drift through 39.75 support, violating an intraday triple bottom, has at last pulled the 30 and 60 min cycles into hesitant downphases. The volume is so light that these signals could whipsaw with even 5 minutes' worth of normal volume, but it's unlikely that we'll see that today. 39.75 should now act as resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  2:57:25 PM
Hmmm. Charts were telling the truth. Sideways-to-slight-down it is. (See my 14:15 post for a description of how charts appeared to suggest this movement, as well as my doubts.) I'm so surprised that chart characteristics are seeing follow-through that now I'm wondering if the dam is about to give way.

 
 
  Jim Brown   12/23/20,  2:56:28 PM
I don't know how much attention everyone is paying to the oil situation with changes in Russia, China and Canada but we are very close to the start of what I am calling the "oil wars". As we rush ever closer to the point in time where global oil production will peak and begin a permanent decline until gone we are going to see an increasing amount of positioning for the end game.

Countries are aware of the coming events and they are starting to take steps to protect their dwindling oil supplies for as long as possible. Oil is currently projected to begin that decline in production in 2007-2008 and the Russia nationalism of Yukos and rationalizing it in full view of the world is confirmation the end is near. Putin would not have taken this drastic a step if he did not believed time was running out.

I speculate on the coming real "oil wars" in my Oil Crisis report that comes with the end of year renewal special. I strongly believe these will deteriorate into shooting wars by 2010. I know this sounds crazy or futuristic but I believe we can count on it by 2010. Read my report and I believe you will agree. I have spent several hundred hours researching this over the last three months.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  2:50:26 PM
Pulte Home (PHM) $62.77 -1.19% ... see 02:27:00

 
 
  Tab Gilles   12/23/20,  2:43:35 PM
Attached are several charts with annotated observations: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  2:39:21 PM
The OEX dipped its toe (a little anthropomorphism again) down to the confirmation level for the small H&S at the top of its five-minute chart and jerked the foot back out of the water. There's still enough bullish sentiment to prevent a confirmation. Bears, beware.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  2:27:00 PM
Swing trade bullish call update alert .... for the two (2) PHM Apr. $65 calls (PHM-DM) ... bid $4.10 with the stock bid $62.57.

IF PHM can't get a close back above that $62.77 level by today's close (say 03:55 PM EST), then I'm going to close both of these calls options out.

Previously shown chart from 12/16/04 at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  2:15:03 PM
The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart shows the OEX currently sandwiched between resistance near 577 and support near 576.20. Support may look slightly stronger than resistance, but only slightly and only after a judgment call. There's really nothing on that chart to say definitely that the OEX will go one direction or the other. The fact that it's resisting a confirmation of that small H&S shows that there is still enough bullish sentiment to prop up the index, so would-be bears should be forewarned of that. However, there has not yet been enough strength to definitely negate the formation by rising to a new high, either, with the OEX just trailing out sideways. To me, this chart configuration and that on the 7-minute chart suggest that we might get more sideways-to-slightly-down action into the close, but I really don't think that charts are going to reflect what might happen as we head into the three-day holiday. That underlying bullish bias might send indices higher regardless of what charts say.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  2:13:55 PM
NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  2:12:18 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  2:11:23 PM
Strangely enough, the 30 min cycle oscillators haven't given up their upphase, in progress without interruption all day on the 30 min candle chart. On the more sensitive tick-driven chart, the cycle channel has been in a downward drift that has stalled out as QQQQ remains pegged to the 7200-tick SMA at 39.80. With price hovering perfectly at the midpoint between both the 30 and 60 min channel bands, there are simply no imbalances to provide directional bias- just a choppy drift on light volume.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  2:02:43 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  1:59:59 PM
The RLX's 30-sma is still proving to be tough resistance, preventing the RLX from rising to break through the topside of its possible bull flag. This should be somewhat troubling to bulls in retail stocks as the 30-sma provided support all through the first half of December. Three days over the last five trading sessions, the RLX has retested that average and has not yet been able to maintain levels above it. It's at 455.91 with the RLX currently at 454.88.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  1:48:36 PM
The advdec line has begun climbing . . . since right about the time of my post noting that it had been falling since about mid-morning. Good timing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  1:46:05 PM
The SOX again challenges its 200-ema. The SOX just hasn't been able to maintain levels above that average, currently at 426.44 with the SOX at 425.90, but neither has the SOX fallen below the 50-dma. It's stuck between support and resistance and one is going to break sooner or later.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  1:45:46 PM
QQQQ stayed below the 7200 tick SMA long enough to turn down the 30 min cycle channel and to run roughly 75% of the short cycle downphase before popping back above the 39.80 level. The 60 min channel is stalled in its rollover, just drifting sideways, and volume has trailed off, with only 3M shares traded in the past 45 minutes or so. Bonds and metals have closed for an early session here, and my charts are growing quiet. Feels like an afterhours session watching QQQQ tick by.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  1:40:02 PM
VIX and VXO both in the 11's. That old 20-50 range is long gone, isn't it?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  1:28:08 PM
The TRAN moved above the descending trendline off the Wednesday high, moving toward the 3797 upside target from the inverse H&S on its five-minute chart. It's at 3793.20 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  1:22:09 PM
Swing trade bearish put alert .... taking three (3) of the Pfizer PFE March $25 puts (PFE-OE) at the offer of $1.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  1:21:07 PM
Stepping away for 15 minutes here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  1:20:32 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $26.13 +0.65% ... reversing gains after Bloomberg reports FDA recommends limited use of Celebrex and Bextra. FDA issues interim guidelines until February meeting.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  1:15:44 PM
The TRAN currently challenges a descending trendline off the Wednesday morning high. That trendline is at about 3792, with the TRAN working toward a 3797-ish upside target from its confirmed inverse H&S this morning. The TRAN is at 3791.20 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  1:13:27 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  1:11:58 PM
TRIN still ambles along in a straight line, but the advdec line has been declining since about 11:10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  1:09:18 PM
The OEX attempts a bounce from just above the neckline for its small H&S on the five-minute chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  1:05:37 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  1:03:09 PM
The 30 min cycle channel has begun to tick lower but it's early to call it a new downphase. Below 39.75, that should change. 30 min channel support is now 39.69, 60 min support is at 39.65, and yesterday's downside doji's spiked to 39.60 with a single low of 39.55. Below that series of 5 cent increments, next significant confluence support comes at 39.40. Volume is very light, only 30M shares traded so far, and our chances of seeing a significant move today are waning by the minute.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  12:57:40 PM
The OEX comes down to test the neckline of the smaller H&S that forms the head of the larger one.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  12:44:45 PM
Gold has edged back up as the miners have edged back down, Feb gold futures currently up 1.40 at 442.90 on light volume of 453 contracts so far, while HUI is up .96% at 216.71 and XAU is up .65% at 99.76. Crude oil has recovered from a low of 43.775 to its current 44.25, unchanged for the day here.

 
 
  James Brown   12/23/20,  12:44:38 PM
American Greetings (AM) is down 8.4% to $25.56 on big volume and breaking several levels of support. The move follows the company's earnings report this morning and a disappointing conference calls.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  12:42:30 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  12:42:13 PM
I mentioned the OEX's potential H&S with a test of the 574-574.50 area and a bounce into a right shoulder, if that should all come to pass. Now, however, the "head" formation for that H&S is forming a H&S of its own. That sometimes happens. It would be confirmed with a decline below 574.93 (or perhaps even 576.23, depending on how the neckline is drawn) and would then suggest a decline down toward 574. I don't think that we can count on all targets to be met from this time on, however. The market can be pushed around more easily in a light-volume environment, and powers-that-be might want markets to be propped up into the holiday.

 
 
  James Brown   12/23/20,  12:42:08 PM
Apparel retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is showing strength today with a 3.16% rally after CSFB upgraded the stock to an "out perform" this morning. Watch for ANF to clear resistance near $47.

 
 
  James Brown   12/23/20,  12:38:29 PM
Correction: S&P just upgraded Dow-component Disney (DIS) to a "buy".

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  12:36:09 PM
The 30 min cycle upphase has so far proven almost as uninspiring as yesterday's downphase. QQQQ continues to hug the 7200-tick SMA line at 39.80. The 60 min cycle upphase has now stalled as well, but neither it nor the 30 min channel have rolled over. A move below 39.75 for 5 minutes should be enough to do it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  12:32:12 PM
Steroid alert for the QQQQ ... Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 541.61 +1.55% Link has some momentum as it looks to re-challenge that neckline of the reverse head/should bottom.

Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) $151.71 +1.51% are stronger as they clear the 150 level of resistance. Link I noted a lot of call buying in the BBH earlier this month

A little different compositions and weighting, but notice has been served.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  12:30:24 PM
SPX.X Daily interval bar chart with corrected WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  12:26:06 PM
The RLX has been dropping quickly from the day's high. Like the OEX, it has the potential to form a H&S on its 15-minute chart, with a drop to the 454-ish zone, and a rise from there into a right shoulder. The RLX is at 454.92 as I type, and I'm following it because I noted that its intraday trading patterns and the OEX's looked remarkably similar. A search of shared components showed that some of the OEX's gain was coming on the backs of its retailers. I then wanted to know if the RLX was going to crater or continue higher, if the OEX was somewhat dependent on those retailers for its strength.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  12:24:05 PM
30 min channel resistance has come down to 39.95 as the upphase stalls out on the break below 7200-tick SMA support at 39.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  12:21:30 PM
The OEX now drifts toward next Keltner support, with that support attempting to firm near 576.07-576.29.

 
 
  James Brown   12/23/20,  12:13:34 PM
Earlier Jeff mentioned the strength in MMM. The stock is breaking through its simple 200-dma and resistance at the $82.00 level although shares are still under the November highs at $83 resistance.

Shares seem to be getting a boost from Goldman Sachs(GS) who came out with positive comments on the stock this morning. The company reiterated its "out perform" rating and a Forbes article quotes GS as saying MMM is their "best idea", which we assume means their best idea for the coming year.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  12:09:44 PM
Some of have mentioned the lunchtime lull. I think today we might need to extend that to a "rest of the day" lull. People are likely to be taking off for the holidays and light volume is likely to become even lighter. That means technical analysis is likely to be less helpful than usual.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  12:06:23 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  12:00:01 PM
As I type, Keltner channels suggest that 577-577.20 is solid resistance, and the OEX will find it easier over the short term to fall than to rise much above that level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  11:57:47 AM
SPX.X alert ... Daily Pivot Levels correction .... today's Daily Pivot levels should be 1,200.66, 1,205.11, 1,208.27 1,212.72, 1,215.88

WEEKLY Pivot levels (used incorrect low from last week) .... 1,179.25, 1,186.72, 1,197.35 1,204.82, 1,215.45.

Thanks Carol!

Note that this moves support and resistance levels HIGHER. Note WEEKLY R2 and DAILY R2 correlations.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  11:55:07 AM
The short cycle downphase rolled over after trending briefly in overbought territory, currently testing 7200-tick SMA support now at 39.78. Until that 39.75-.78 level breaks, the 30 and 60 min cycle bias should remain to the upside. Volume is light at 27.4M, but not as light as one might expect ahead of the long weekend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  11:52:40 AM
Instead of moving higher after confirming an inverse H&S, the TRAN fell after the confirmation and now has broken below the bear flag it had been building. We'll see if the TRAN follows through any more on this formation break than it did on the bullish one, but market bulls did not want to see the TRAN fail to show that followthrough.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  11:41:06 AM
About 30 minutes ago, the TRAN confirmed an inverse H&S on its three-minute chart, upside target near 3797. The TRAN hasn't been able to make much progress so far, coming right back down to retest the neckline. A move above the last three-minute high at 3789.47 should perhaps get the TRAN moving toward that upside target, but the three-minute 100/130-ema's intervene. These averages appear more important to the TRAN's trading pattern than do the five-minute counterparts, with multiple support or resistance points along them. They're currently at 3788.62 and 3788.61, respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  11:34:58 AM
This morning, the GHA tested Friday's low but didn't break below it. That 312.66-ish level has been support for the GHA all week, but a break below that level would have to be confirmed by a break below the 12/09 low of 311.67. The top of the recent consolidation zone is at 325.17, although most trading has occurred below 323.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  11:23:39 AM
Nymex crude is still weak, down .68% at 43.95 here. Gold has given up most of its gains, up .50 at 442 despite a 1.2% gain in the HUI at 217.22 and +.88% for the XAU at 99.99.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  11:22:38 AM
Checking other indices, I note that the GSO lingers in the appropriate right-shoulder area for a H&S on its daily chart, with this formation at the top of an extended climb, showing bearish price/oscillator divergence as the head was formed. In strong rallies, we've seen such formations negated, even with such bearish divergence, but so far, this leans toward a diagnosis of a possible H&S in the making.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  11:20:38 AM
There's been no TRAN breakdown out of the possible bear flag.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  11:13:59 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  11:05:05 AM
The bounce from the retest of 39.75 QQQQ as support took place on the largest buy program of the last 2 days, but the move since then is listless and weak. 39.80 is asserting itself as higher support now, but volume has trailed back off to previous levels. A short cycle upphase is in effect and is only now approaching overbought, but as long as 39.75 holds, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls- particularly so after yesterday's abysmal 30 min and 60 min cycle downphases.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  11:04:42 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  11:00:08 AM
The TRAN's rise off the day's low is taking the form of a bear flag. I'm watching for a potential breakdown out of that bear flag. Most market rallies have been led or accompanied by TRAN rallies lately, so bulls would want to know if the TRAN were signaling a retreat. A drop below the day's low of 3778.34 would confirm that breakdown. The TRAN's five-minute chart shows a big rounding-top type formation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  10:55:16 AM
QQQQ is drifting higher above 39.75, with 30 and 60 min channels pointed north, resistance currently lined up at 39.92. 7200-tick SMA support is at 39.73, and the channels will continue their upphases with price above the line.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  10:54:04 AM
The OEX did manage a 15-minute close above the breakout level on the Keltner chart, but barely did so. The OEX retreats now to retest the breakout level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  10:45:36 AM
The RLX did follow through with a new high of its own.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:43:02 AM
Citigroup (C) $48.90 +1.24% Link ... nice follow through from very BULLISH move yesterday.

BULLISH market implications here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:41:12 AM
SOX.X 425.03 +0.23% ... just above MONTHLY Piv, but still under WEEKLY Piv.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:40:22 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,860 +0.4% ... leading above its WEEKLY R2 (10,831)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  10:39:08 AM
A 15-minute OEX close above the Keltner line currently at 577.38 will show a breakout on the 15-minute chart. That line is dynamic, so will inch up if the OEX moves higher. A close below that Keltner line suggests that it held as resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:39:08 AM
SPX.X 1,213.17 +0.29% .... right at its WEEKLY R2

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:37:42 AM
QQQQ $39.86 ... testing WEEKLY Pivot. Was a point of contention yesterday on first test of the week.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  10:34:43 AM
39.75 QQQQ is now being tested from above. If it holds, the bulls should should be back in business for a 30 min cycle upphase.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  10:33:15 AM
Headlines:

10:31am U.S. NATGAS STKS DOWN 123 BLN CUBIC FT: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am JAN NATGAS UP 4C AT $6.86/MLN BTUS

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  10:28:29 AM
Stuck on a call, watching the breakout above 39.77 QQQQ- the 30 min cycle has turned up.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:28:01 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  10:27:31 AM
The GSO heads up toward a test of the descending trendline off yesterday's high, with that trendline at about 172.90. The GSO is at 172.70. A break through that trendline to the upside would suggest that it was a bull flag. A fall to a new day's low would suggest otherwise.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  10:23:59 AM
The GHA gapped lower this morning and now coils below that gap. The GHA's component stocks are more important to the NDX than are the SOX's, as Tab has taught us, although perhaps not more important to market sentiment.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:22:45 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  10:21:38 AM
Another reason to be skeptical of gains today? The TRAN has dropped since about 10:45 yesterday, although it's attempting a bounce now from just above the 3774 downside target of the H&S that was confirmed yesterday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  10:20:08 AM
Not much of a retreat, was that? That's what I mean about this not being a good pick-the-top time and about low-volume days meaning that the OEX might not retreat to levels suggested by technical analysis. The OEX is now touching the 15-minute Keltner upside target, also upside resistance. That resistance turns higher, so it's not certain whether it will stop the OEX. The RLX and OEX have had intraday patterns much alike over this week and the OEX's gains have been produced in large part by gains in the retailers. The RLX has not yet broken to a new day's high, however, but it is climbing. I'm watching the RLX to help gauge whether it will continue to contribute to OEX gains.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:17:38 AM
SOX.X $425.28 +0.29% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:17:09 AM
QQQQ $39.80 +0.15% ... making its move here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  10:12:32 AM
QQQQ is hovering around the now-flat 7200 tick SMA at 39.70. The TRINQ is neutral-bullish at .65, while the QQV is down .08 to 15.41. The same 39.60-39.75- make it 39.77- range is in effect.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:12:19 AM
VIX.X 11.48 +0.26% .... Daily Pivot Levels ... 11.16, 11.27, Piv= 11.48, 11.59, 11.80

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  10:06:23 AM
I'm just noticing that if the OEX does pull back to those five-minute 100/130-ema's and then bounce, there's danger of a H&S building on the 15-minute chart, with this morning's high the top of the head. In that circumstance, any bounce could be a bounce into a possible right shoulder. More reason to be cautious about breakout plays. I'm just seeing too many danger signals today to recommend a type of play that has not been successful, anyway, for a couple of months.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  10:04:04 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  10:02:47 AM
The OEX's 15-minute candles keep printing long upper shadows, a sign that the OEX likely needs to pull back to support before continuing higher. (Started as I typed.) The five-minute 100/130-ema's are currently at 574.23 and 573.80. The 15-minute Keltner channels show support higher than that, near 575.50-575.75, but then again near the five-minute 100/130-ema's. It looks possible for the OEX to dip to those averages, but not necessarily probable at this time, particularly given the relative ease with which prices can be pushed around on a light-volume day. Have to watch further.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  10:00:36 AM
Headline:

10:00am U.S. NOV. NEW HOME SALES DOWN 12% TO 1.125 MLN UNITS

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  10:00:01 AM
The Fed has added a total of 14.5B in various repos against 16.75B expiring, for a net drain of 2.25B today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  9:54:21 AM
QQQQ's nose-to-nose with 39.75, but has yet to break it. Upper 30 min channel resistance is 39.88, and the 7200-tick SMA is below at 39.69. The 30 min channel downphase is stalled with price above the SMA.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  9:54:08 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $24.76 +2.31% .... Jan. $25 calls (SWQ-AE) have been active early. Merrill initiated coverage with a "buy" rating on Tuesday.

Same day, Forbes called the stock "inexpensive"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  9:53:11 AM
Headline:

9:47am UMICH DEC. CONSUMER SENTIMENT REVISED TO 97.1 VS 95.7

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  9:48:24 AM
The advdec line is nothing to praise this morning, but TRIN still isn't supporting a pick-the-top attempt. The RLX does battle with its 30-dma, and is within formation that is either a bull flag that's trying to round up or a bearish right triangle. The SOX isn't giving many clues, and neither are the GHA and GSO. One thing that can be said, though, is that they're also not participating in gains today, and so that still makes me skeptical of this breakout. Nevertheless, the OEX climbs, but it may be climbing on a shaky ladder.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  9:43:13 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 576.34 +0.17% ... "Drake, you'd better move out from under my chair."

12/15/04 Index Trader Wrap chart at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  9:40:51 AM
3M (MMM) $82.00 +0.62% Link ... trade at $82.00 sees a 3-box reversal back higher.

Testing its flat 200-day SMA ($82.15)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  9:38:24 AM
Another breakout on the OEX. The 15-minute chart shows a potential upside target of 577.02 with that also being potential resistance, but that resistance line turns up now, so it's uncertain if it would hold if touched.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  9:37:43 AM
Network Appliance (NTAP) $31.31 -5.41% Link ... sharply lower after RBC downgraded to "sector perform" from "outperform"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  9:35:54 AM
QQQQ continues a sideways drift within the middle of yesterday's range. Somehow, that wimpy 30 min cycle downphase from yesterday is still in effect, with channel support at 39.55. Above 39.75, the bulls should be able to put the bears out of their misery, while below 39.60, we might actually see some selling.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  9:33:13 AM
The SOX opens near the flat-line level. Watching to see what effect Micron's revenue miss might have. Has it been sell-the-rumor and will it now be buy-the-fact? Or more selling?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  9:32:09 AM
Gains in the futures do not follow through at the open on the OEX, as it opens slightly lower and then climbs as other component stocks open.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  9:30:21 AM
Red Hat (RHAT) $15.07 Link .... lower at $13.88 after posting a quarterly profit of $10.8 million, or $0.06 per share on revenue of $50.9 million. The EPS figure matched Wall Street's expectations, but revenue fell shy of the $52 million forecast.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  9:29:31 AM
As I mentioned earlier, futures bounced off the overnight lows near the European open. If the OEX follows through with gains this morning, there won't be an opportunity to go long on a bounce from the five-minute 100/130-ema's. That will at least give traders an opportunity to evaluate internals and the behaviors of some of those other key indices before there might be such a bounce. What to do about a possible breakout entry, though? That's problematic. As I mentioned last night, they haven't been profitable since early November, and today is likely to be a low-volume day with moves that defy traditional technical analysis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/23/20,  9:24:56 AM
Adalor Corp. (ADLR) $16.19 Link ... plunges to $8.90 pre-market and is atop the most active list after saying its experimental treatment for post-operative bowel obstruction, Alvimopan, did not confer a significant benefit in a late-stage clinical trial in Europe.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  9:04:00 AM
Bonds have recovered part of their losses and equities have strengthened as well, QQQQ now down 4 cents at 39.69.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  8:35:40 AM
Session low for treasuries here, with TNX up 2.2 bps to 4.223%. So far, the post-data reaction has the dollar and bonds weaker, equities unchanged.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  8:33:25 AM
Gold and silver are at nominal new highs following the data, equities are unchanged with QQQQ -.11 and the futures fractionally positive, while bonds are fractionally positive. TNX is up .9 bps at 4.21% currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  8:30:59 AM
Headlines:

8:30am U.S. NOV. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.3%

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 9,000 TO 2.72 MLN

8:30am U.S. NOV. CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.2%

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 2,250 TO 340,000

8:30am U.S. NOV. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 1.6%

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 17,000 TO 333,000

8:30am U.S. OCT. DURABLE GOODS REVISED DOWN 0.9%

8:30am U.S. NOV. DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION DOWN 0.8%

8:30am U.S. NOV. DURABLES EX-DEFENSE UP 3.7%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/23/20,  7:54:28 AM
Futures are higher while QQQQ is lower, ES trading 1211.75, NQ 1617, YM 10827 and QQQQ -.08 at 39.65. Gold is up 1.80 to 443, silver +.068 to 6.90, ten year notes +.015 to 112.0469 and crude oil -.40 to 43.85.

We await the 8:30 release of durable orders for Nov., est. .7%; personal income, est. .2%; initial claims, est. 335K. At 9:45, we get Michigan sentiment, est. 95.7 and at 10AM, New Home Sales, est. 1.2M.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/23/20,  7:15:15 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei was closed overnight for a one-day holiday, with many other Asian markets posting small losses. European markets trade near the flat-line, with modest gains as this report was prepared. Techs were under pressure due to Micron Technologies' revenue disappointment. In Russia, speculation that the Russian government had used a shell company to buy profitable Yukos unit Yuganskneftegaz was confirmed. Rosneft bought all shares of that shell company after it purchased Yukos this weekend. Rosneft will then be folded into state-owned Gazprom. Yuganskneftegaz's selling price was reportedly only half the company's value. According to some, this week's moves support Yukos' owner's claim that the actions against Yukos, including a tax bill he calls inflated, have been politically motivated. As of 4:30 EST, our futures bounced off their overnight lows and are now slightly higher. As of 7:01 EST, gold was up $2.10 and crude, down $0.23. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei was closed for a one-day holiday, the Emperor's Birthday, on Thursday, but other Asian bourses traded. Taiwan's Chunghwa Picture Tubes trimmed its 2004 profit forecast by a hefty percentage, citing a decline in LCD panel prices. South Korea's LG. Philips LCD was hit by that guidance, and led South Korean stocks lower in early trading. In Japan, the big drugmakers are in the process of setting up marketing teams that will be disease specific. In other news, Mitsubishi Heavy gained a contract to supply steam generators to a U.S. nuclear plant, beef restaurants reportedly suffer after the ban against U.S. imports extends, and Sumitomo Trust will take a 59.1% position in Matsushita Leasing.

Many Asian markets turned lower. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.06%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.74%. Singapore's Straits Times was flat, down 0.01%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was one bourse that climbed, by 0.60%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.90%.

Many European markets claim small gains, with techs pressured by Micron Technologies' miss of revenue expectations. In early trading, rival Infineon and other chipmakers ASML and STMicroelectronics declined. France's INSEE released December's business confidence number with that number showing a decline. In the U.K., minutes of a Bank of England meeting suggested a possibility that interest rates might be lowered next year, with that report sending banks higher.

In stock-specific news, embattled Royal Ahold showed strong gains after it agreed to sell two units, BI-LO and Bruno's, ridding Royal Ahold of most debt obligations and liabilities related to them. Royal Ahold will retain responsibility for a portion of the lease obligations. Novartis gained after it announced FDA approval for a drug that will treat overactive bladders.

As of 6:56 EST, the FTSE 100 was flat, at 4,777.40. The CAC 40 had gained 8.51 points or 0.22%, to trade at 3,814.66. The DAX gained 3.67 points or 0.09%, to trade at 4,244.95.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/22/20,  12:50:55 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives