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  OI Technical Staff   12/27/20,  9:15:42 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  8:35:07 PM
For two months, the OEX has climbed within a rising regression channel. Thursday and today, it hit the top of that channel and then today started rolling down. If the OEX is strong, it will find support at or above the midline of that channel, now at about 572. If it's weaker, it will retrace to the bottom of the channel, now at about 565-566, or even break below it.

First, though, the OEX hit Keltner support at the close today. We'll see how futures behave overnight. They had appeared to begin a small bounce in after hours. If futures hold up well, the OEX might attempt a bounce and we'll look for another rollover point. If futures don't hold up well and there is no bounce at the cash open, want-to-be bears have a quandary because of that potential support near 572. A move up through 579-580 that is sustained would appear to break the OEX out of that rising regression channel to the upside, at least if the break occurs early in the morning. Because the channel rises, that breakout level will rise, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  5:47:36 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Unable to verify actual intra-day highs and lows at this point. Will hopefully have QCharts issue fixed by tomorrow, Thursday at the latest.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  4:45:15 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  4:02:38 PM
The DOW did hit the level the Keltner channels suggested would be hit (15:05 post), as did the OEX. There wasn't time for a bounce in the cash markets before the close, so we weren't able to see what would happen.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  3:57:17 PM
The OEX and Dow both drift closer to the levels that Keltner channels suggested they would reach. These are both potential bounce points, and the height of that bounce will tell us what to expect next. While I consider the OEX's chart anything but bullish, the OEX hasn't sunk even to the midpoint of its 60-minute rising regression channel yet, much less broken down out of that channel. Nothing all too bearish has happened yet. If there is a bounce, I'd still be more likely to look for a rollover point to enter a new bearish position, with a downside target near 572 (midpoint of the channel), than I would to go long, however. I might change my mind after hours when I can study charts out of the line of fire, but that's what I see now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  3:47:30 PM
The advdec line did fall beneath its bear flag support about the same time this last job down began. See my 14:18 post.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  3:47:07 PM
The bounce from 39.60 was from 7200-tick SMA support at that level. The 30 min cycle channel should be bullish with QQQQ above that level, bearish below. All things being equal, however, this bounce from the 11:30 low has been very gradual and civilized compared to the sharp, rapid drop that preceded it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  3:45:07 PM
And the OEX approaches the 574.15-574.40 level that Keltner charts suggested would be hit. (See my 14:50 post.) The Keltners also suggested that the Dow would drop below 10,800, but it hasn't hit the 10,786 level suggested. Yet. Remember that these could also represent support levels from which these indices might attempt bounces.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  3:41:44 PM
Thanks, Linda.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  3:41:07 PM
Jonathan, I don't have those symbols for QCharts. I haven't been able to find them in the past. I follow the foreign markets through a combination of stockcharts.com and Link with those links requiring manual refreshing. Currencies can be found here: Link If a reader is following this for guidance as to how other markets might behave, this site might be sufficient, although not for trading purposes, of course. I've double-checked it a few times with my currency feeds, and it seems fairly up-to-date, but I couldn't verify that it's always accurate.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  3:26:52 PM
The OEX remains within the level needed to complete an advance block bearish formation today, a formation that resulted in the 12/17 decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  3:18:15 PM
The TRAN coils at the bottom of the day's range, the former possible bear flag resolving into a symmetrical triangle.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  3:12:25 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  3:09:23 PM
I agree, Jonathan. (See Jonathan's 15:08 post.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  3:08:34 PM
Euros and CAD futures continue to drift lower of their highs, CAD now +1.09% at .8197 and euros +1.02% at 1.3631. Gold has pulled back to 445.70 and silver to 6.997. The USD's bounce has coincided with the bounce in equities and bonds as well this afternoon, but all have a corrective feel after this morning's sharp/impulsive declines.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  3:05:42 PM
I've been looking at the whole Dow 10,800 issue on Keltner charts. What do they say? The 15-minute chart shows potential support at about 10,801.60 (on a 15-minute closing basis), but suggests that the Dow may actually work its way down to 10,785 or so, perhaps after a bounce from near 10,801. If the Dow could maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 10,821.23, something it hasn't been able to do since mid-morning today, that drift down toward 10,785 would become less likely. I'm not accustomed to watching the Dow on Keltner charts, so can't vouch for the reliability of this forecast.

For those not familiar with Keltner channel lines, those lines are dynamic and shift as the OEX does. Therefore, although the OEX might have had 15-minute closes above 10,821.23 since mid-morning--I haven't verified that, one way or the other--it hasn't closed above the Keltner line that's currently drifted down to that level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  2:57:19 PM
QQQQ has broken the previous high by a penny and is now challenging Thursday's endless 39.72-.74 confluence zone from below. Channel resistance remains just overhead at 39.82.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  2:50:43 PM
The OEX's five- and seven-minute charts now show the OEX crammed between Keltner support and Keltner resistance, with channels narrowing. A breakout should occur, but not necessarily before the end of the day. When the OEX settles into an equilibrium position in this manner, few clues are given as to which direction the breakout will occur, but we can see that the OEX has settled into a narrow channel with support near 575 and resistance near 576.20. The OEX appears to be testing that support as I type. The 15-minute chart suggests that the OEX will likely make its way down toward 574.15-574.40, but that it might attempt a bounce or at least sideways consolidation from that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  2:43:20 PM
The OEX threatens to break down out of its potential bear flag, but the RLX hasn't done so yet. The RLX's pattern is beginning to take on a little of a bearish right triangle (flat bottom and descending top) look, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  2:41:27 PM
If this small pennant proves to be a bull flag, we should see a relatively quick move to test upper 60 min resistance at 39.84 currently. Volume remains very thin, however, with 54M QQQQ shares traded- heavier so far than Thursday at 45M shares, but still well below the 91.8M share ADV.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  2:31:23 PM
And the OEX again resists falling to a new LOD. I've turned to the TRAN's chart to see how it's behaving. It, too, has refused to fall to a new LOD, but its pattern has settled into a likely bear flag climb off that LOD, a wide enough one that it might be retracing Fib levels struck off the entire range for the day and not just off the decline off the mid-morning consolidation. There's one thing that bothers me about that, though. That mid-morning consolidation occurred just about halfway between the day's high and the day's low, and that could mean that the day's low completed the short-term drop. Sometimes consolidation patterns form about halfway through a movement. Market bears don't want to see the TRAN retrace higher than 3776 or so before breaking down out of that bear flag, then, and would like to see it break down sooner, perhaps before rising higher than a 38.2% retracement of the day's range, with that number at about 3770.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  2:19:14 PM
The OEX turned down with other indices and now reaches toward that LOD. Not quite there yet. Watch for double-bottom potential.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  2:18:16 PM
The advdec line has had a little bear flag going, too, so I'm watching that to see if the advdec line breaks below the bear flag support, at about -1137. I've watched this before, and such a break did appear to have some relevance, but I sure don't have any scientific studies to show that it does. Purely anecdotal.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  2:15:08 PM
Bears weren't able to deliver on potential bearish setups and now bulls are going to give it a try, it seems. The failure of the OEX to confirm a rollover beneath the five-minute 100/130-ema's by reaching a new LOD was telling and now bulls are trying again to push the OEX over those averages. They haven't been able to do so yet, so bullish strength remains in question, too. Actually, a close here or near here would complete that bearish advance block scenario that I talked about on the daily chart, so holding here, near the five-minute 100/130-ema's, wouldn't be a bullish development.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  2:13:24 PM
This upward spike in QQQQ, coinciding with the downward spike in oil, has drilled the price up above 7200 tick SMA resistance and has caused an uptick in the 30 min Keltner channel, resistance currently rising to 39.74. Support remains flat at 39.44, however. 7200-tick SMA support is now 39.60, and an upward intraday bias will remain until the price gets back below it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  2:13:07 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  2:02:03 PM
During that bounce, the OEX and RLX both headed straight up to test their five-minute 100/130-ema's. Both were stopped there, at least temporarily.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:59:53 PM
The OEX did confirm that continuation-form H&S, but now heads right back up above the neckline. By the time this is uploaded, it may be above the head level, negating the formation. Remember that we're in the stop-running time of day. That doesn't mean that you should ignore stops if in bearish positions, but it might mean that you're wary of entering new positions based on this move.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  1:56:59 PM
QQQQ continues to tread water at 39.57. Euro and gold futures have met at a 1.11% gain for the day here, CAD well off its spike high to a nearly 1.6% gain. Crude oil is holding its losses, currently down 5.77% at 41.625.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:53:39 PM
The TRAN slips down toward the day's low again, but isn't quite there yet. Beware of a possible double-bottom formation near 3750. The TRAn is at 3756.33 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:41:26 PM
There's a continuation-form H&S on the OEX, neckline at about 575.50, downside target about 574.37. These often aren't reliable, but sometimes are.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:37:01 PM
Like the OEX, the TRAN resists setting a new LOD. It rounded down where it should--at the 50% retracement of the last decline off a five-minute high but resists falling to that new low of the day. If in bearish OEX positions, I'd keep a close watch on the TRAN for the this reason and the RLX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:34:08 PM
The SOX remains above its 50-sma, below its 200-ema.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  1:33:08 PM
QQQQ bounced from short cycle channel support at 39.53, currently back to its 39.57 range, going on 2.5 hours in this zone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:32:11 PM
Although not at the high of the day, the VXO still generally climbs. It's climbing in what appears to be a rising wedge, however, with a rising wedge having bearish connotations when found on an equity chart and not a VXO chart. We'll see how it behaves here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:26:11 PM
The RLX broke back below its five-minute 100/130-ema's, which should help OEX bears feel a little better, but the OEX resists falling to a new low and sure looks as if it wants to head back up and retest those averages again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:20:51 PM
If you don't usually read both sides of the MM, you might turn to the Futures side and read the article Marc linked to the site. See Marc's 13:11 post. This discusses the dollar's weakness, and some of the causes and concerns related to that weakness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  1:12:54 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  1:11:25 PM
QQQQ is curling slowly back down below declining 7200 tick SMA resistance. A break below 39.52, current short cycle support, should re-energize the bears after their 1.5 hour rest.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:09:39 PM
The OEX appears to be turning down from its five-minute 100/130-ema's, but at a shallow angle that I distrust. Need to see a new LOD before I trust it too much.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  1:00:58 PM
The death tolls from the tsunami have been climbing all day, with estimates now at 23,700 in nine counties, according to one article.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  12:55:02 PM
Session low for crude oil, -5.94% at 41.55.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  12:52:31 PM
IB reports the VXO at 11.97 as equities hold just off their lows and foreign currencies just off their highs. QQV is up 10.01% at 16.71.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  12:51:01 PM
The TRAN's bounce did not look corrective, but it was stopped at the 50% retracement of the decline off the last five-minute high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  12:47:36 PM
The RLX turns down toward its five-minute 100/130-ema's again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  12:45:47 PM
Euros have crept higher to a 1.12% gain for the session, CAD holding at a 1.42% gain and gold barely budging with its 3.7 or .84% at 446.50. QQQQ continues its net sideways trade on light volume, with bonds holding at the lows, TNX +8.7 bps a 4.305%. Volume has come to a screeching halt here, and there seems to be no impetus for any of these markets to move for the moment.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  12:43:19 PM
I've lost my QCharts connection. Will be back once I can get connection reestablished.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  12:39:57 PM
Is the RLX going to lead the way for the OEX? The RLX is back above its five-minute 100/130-ema's as the OEX heads back up to retest them.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  12:37:36 PM
Crude oil is back to the lows, currently trading 41.75, -5.49%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  12:31:03 PM
I mentioned the importance of the RLX's performance to the OEX's lately, and the RLX has come back up to challenge its 30-sma. This average had provided support for many months, but the OEX fell below it in mid-December and it's been resistance on a closing basis since then. That average is at 455.88, with the RLX at 455.83 as I type. Just overhead, at just under 560, is the descending trendline off the November high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  12:28:01 PM
QQQQ's bounce continues to hold up. While there's been no progress in the past 10 minutes, volume has dried up as well, so the pattern on the tick-driven chart remains one of a steady bounce off the 39.40 low. A short cycle upphase is trying to kick off, but the true test will come at 7200-tick SMA resistance of 39.69, with steeply declining 30 min cycle channel resistance a mere 4 cents above that.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  12:27:04 PM
I often use the OEX's 7-minute chart when viewing the Keltner lines because the OEX has tended to show more congruence with the lines there than with those on the five-minute. Over the last week, that's been shifting a bit, and now, this morning, they give different outlooks. The OEX appears trapped below strong resistance just overhead on the five-minute chart but possibly supported by similar Keltner levels on the seven-minute. The seven-minute support doesn't look quite as strong as the five-minute resistance, but it's almost a toss-up. That resistance lies just overhead, up to 576.47 and would be important to watch on a five-minute closing basis.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  12:17:24 PM
The TRAN is bouncing from just above 3750, and this time its bounce doesn't look as corrective as did the earlier one. Keep a watch on this, bears.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  12:13:54 PM
The OEX has come up to retest its five-minute 100/130-ema's, from the underside this time. Those averages are at 576.12 and 576.38, respectively. If the SOX would drop below its 50-sma concurrently, something that it doesn't look as if it's going to do, at least concurrently, a rollover from here would be appropriate for new bearish entries, but only for those willing to trade light-volume environments with all the dangers that entails. $TRIN still isn't giving bears a warm, fuzzy feeling.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  12:13:50 PM
QQQQ $39.62 -0.34% ... daily interval bar chart with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  12:08:53 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  12:06:14 PM
Last night, I mentioned that the OEX was setting up a pattern that was reminiscent of a bearish advance block pattern. In order to complete that pattern, today's candle would have a smaller real body than Thursday's and the candle would have a long upper shadow. So far, the OEX is fitting that parameter, but the day is far from over.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  12:02:37 PM
Stepping away for a few minutes here. 7200-tick SMA resistance is down to 39.72, and the 30 min cycle bearish-divergent downphase will remain in progress so long as QQQQ holds below it. Current channel support has now dropped below 39.40 to 39.37 currently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  12:02:06 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  11:59:35 AM
QQQQ $39.56 -0.48% ... session low of $39.40 comes just at the WEEKLY 61.8% pivot retracement of $39.39.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:51:00 AM
The GSO still hesitates at the appropriate right-shoulder level for a H&S on its daily chart, but it's not dropping, just forming a doji. The GHA does drop toward the bottom of the recent consolidation pattern, perhaps a bearish right triangle. A drop below the 12/09 low of 311.67 would appear to confirm that bearish formtion, but the 30-sma sits just below the confirmation level, at 309.46, and that's been strong support over many months. As I type, the GHA is at 313.17.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  11:48:00 AM
10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 8.5 bp at 4.305% ... big move here too (outside of dollar weakness).

Dollar weakness and Treasury weakness has equity bulls spooked.

SPX.X 1,206.44 -0.3%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  11:46:15 AM
CAD futures are up 1.52%, while euro futures are up 1.05%. These are mammoth intraday moves for the currency markets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:46:00 AM
The SOX approaches its 50-dma, a powerful support for the SOX since mid-October. The SOX has touched that average several times during December, but has bounced each time. That average is at 420.65 and the SOX as 422.54 as I type. A fall below the 50-dma and 100-ema (at 419.05) roughly marks a fall out of the SOX's rising regression channel in place since September, too. Bears should protect profits in case of a SOX bounce leading other indices higher, but market internals are beginning to line up more in favor of bears than bulls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:42:37 AM
The advdec line has continued dropping, supporting bearish hopes.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  11:41:37 AM
Current session low 39.40 QQQQ.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:40:35 AM
The OEX has dropped well below the five-minute 100/130-ema's. They should be at least light resistance now, with those averages at 576.46 and 576.16, respectively.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  11:36:46 AM
Ten year notes continue lower, TNX up 2.04% or 8.6 bps to 4.304%. 4.26% is now support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  11:35:50 AM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,206.43 , QQQQ $39.48

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  11:34:53 AM
30-min delayed refreshable USD Index chart at this Link . We have bonds, the USD and equities declining together, with foreign currencies and metals rising.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:32:05 AM
The OEX did turn down from the top of that ascending regression channel. Logic suggests that it should then test at least the midline of that channel, but that depends on what happens at the current 576-ish level. There's a potential H&S neckline, Keltner support, and the five-minute 100/130-ema's all in this area, all potential support. It looks to me as if the OEX is falling below that support, confirming the H&S, but the break is tentative just yet. The midline of that channel is just below 572, but the downside target of the H&S is higher, near 573.10.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  11:31:14 AM
Volume continues to rise for gold, now up 3.80 to 446.6 on 697 contracts' worth. This is higher than Thursday's light volume, but I don't have Thursday's number handy.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  11:27:21 AM
The selling so far hasn't let up- new lows across the board as QQQQ challenges the 39.40-.50 support zone. If this fails, next support is at 39.25 and 39.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:26:06 AM
The TRAN did drop to a new LOD. The TRAN's precipitous drop earlier this morning was a warning to bulls in the S&P's and Dow.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:25:11 AM
The OEX is bouncing back above the five-minute 130-ema, between that and the 100-ema as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  11:24:35 AM
QQQQ has just plunged through lower 30 and 60 min channel support. Confluence support in in play from 39.40-.50, and only the strongest trending move will have price plunge through that level from gere. More likely will be a bounce to the 39.65 or .72 resistance level to allow QQQQ to consolidate the drop.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:23:50 AM
The RLX and OEX have both confirmed their double-top formations. The OEX has tentatively dropped below the five-minute 100/130-ema's, although there has not yet been a five-minute close beneath these averages.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  11:23:41 AM
Bullish swing trade stop alert for the QQQQ $39.50

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:22:56 AM
The OEX tests the five-minute 100/130-ema's.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:20:42 AM
The OEX heads down now toward a confirmation of the double-top formation (which is itself a right shoulder for a potential H&S), but I wouldn't consider either confirmed until the OEX is below the five-minute 100/130-ema's, at 576.55 and 576.20, respectively. Remember that all this week, we can expect light volume and easily manipulated markets, and technical analysis is of limited use in that kind of environment. This is almost "I believe" type of trading conditions, where you decide what you believe, enter at the appropriate point, set appropriate stops, and hope your bias is correct. Not exactly the greatest trading conditions.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:16:09 AM
The OEX and RLX still maintain intraday trading patterns that resemble each others' patterns. The RLX also has a potential double-top formation, but also trades somewhat sideways instead of confirming or negating that double-top formation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:14:52 AM
The TRAN tentatively breaks down out of the bear flag it may have been forming, although it has not hit a new LOD yet. It could still reform into another type of distribution pattern, but the TRAN often leads as does the SOX, so TRAN weakness should make one suspect rallies.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:12:11 AM
The GHA is in the process of closing this morning's gap higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  11:10:43 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  11:06:39 AM
The price action in gold is confirming the break now, with Feb. gold up 3.50 to 446.30, with volume now 450 contracts. 445 should now act as support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  11:03:26 AM
QQQQ failed a couple of cents below the previous high and is now retesting 7200-tick SMA support at 39.83.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  11:03:10 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  11:02:36 AM
About 45 minutes ago, the TRAN completed a dive that took it to a new low of the day. It's been climbing since, but in a formation that may be setting up into a bear-flag shape.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  10:57:23 AM
ML Macadamia Orchards (NUT) $5.76 +4.91% ... pretty good buyer at the offer today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  10:53:16 AM
The OEX is of course now in potential double-top territory on intraday charts, with a confirmation of the double-top formation coming at a move below 576.70, the trough between the two peaks. I wouldn't count on that formation being confirmed until a move below the five-minute 100/130-ema's, however, with those averages at 576.56 and 576.10, respectively. The 100-ema runs congruently with the neckline of the potential H&S I mentioned earlier, too. A move to a new high would of course undo the potential double-top formation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  10:47:16 AM
Here's the rising regression channel to which I've been referring, as seen on the OEX's 60-minute chart: Link As I noted earlier, this would be the perfect place from which to expect a downturn, but internals aren't giving a clear signal of one in the making just yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  10:44:59 AM
Feb. Crude Oil (cl05g) $42.20 -3.38% ... updated conventional (blue) and fitted 38.2 (pink) retracement chart at this Link

$0.25 box chart at this Link where today's action, to $42.00, would have bearish vertical count column growing to $37.75.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:43:43 AM
Feb. gold futures have just cleared 445 resistance at last, currently printing 445.20. Volume is far too light to confirm this as the significant break it might otherwise be, with only 280 e-mini contracts traded today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:41:47 AM
Bonds continue to weaken as QQQQ bounces, now back above 7200-tick SMA resistance and trying again for the 39.94-.95 resistance line that stopped its last intraday bounce. Should it succeed, next resistance is at the 30/60 min channel resistance lines at 40.02, coincidentally the high of the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  10:38:52 AM
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $40.10 +0.45% Link .... surpassed its own target of 3.1 million subscribers by year's end.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  10:37:14 AM
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $8.34 +4.9% Link ... surpasses the 1 million subscriber mark.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  10:37:09 AM
This time, the OEX bounced from just above five-minute 100/130-ema's and now tests the day's high. TRIN turns back down; the advdec line turns back up. The TRAN doesn't bounce, but the SOX makes another assault on the 200-ema. Mixed-up action.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  10:29:23 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:28:33 AM
New low for crude oil here, -5.38% at 41.80. Euros and CAD futures are at a session high along with silver. Gold continues to shy away from that key 445 resistance line, currently up 1.60 at 444.4. Volume is very light across the board.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:25:44 AM
Other than a number of doji spikes on the 100 tick candles, 39.75 QQQQ held as support above the 30 and 60 min cycle channels. QQQQ is bouncing to test 7200-tick SMA resistance now at the cycle channel drifts sideways.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  10:24:38 AM
The SOX turns down from the 200-ema. It has a couple of times pierced the ascending trendline off the 12/21 low, but has bounced back above it each time.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  10:22:00 AM
The OEX presents a possible H&S on its 15-minute chart, complete with bearish price/MACD divergence. The neckline is now at about 576.25 and still rising.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  10:19:49 AM
The advdec line continues lower, offering a warning to bulls. At 10:11 on the Futures side, Jane commented on the internals, so you might check that post, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:17:14 AM
Crude has reached a low of 41.875 so far, down over 5%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:15:13 AM
From USA Today:

Announcing a buyback has never been a guarantee a company would actually do it. Even when a company does buy back stock, the benefit is often mitigated by other things it does. A USA TODAY analysis of data from The Buyback Letter found that during the fourth quarter of 2003, 94 companies announced stock buybacks. But as of the third quarter this year, on average, the number of shares outstanding remained almost exactly the same.

It's been the same story among companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 this year. So far, 205 have announced buybacks and released updated share counts. But among these companies, the share counts rose 0.5%, according to S&P. Share counts rise even after buyback announcements because of...

Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  10:13:44 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Thursday's internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:12:33 AM
Session high for silver here at 7.012, challenging former support from below. Crude oil continues to slip lower, now -4.81% at 42.05.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:10:56 AM
That 30 min cycle rollover will result in another 30 min cycle bearish divergence, the 2nd since Wednesday, but unless it breaks the 39.25 support line, it will just be more intraday noise within the attempted daily cycle upturn.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  10:10:53 AM
The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 576.25 and 575.90, respectively.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:09:16 AM
7200-tick support has broken. Look for next support at combined 30 and 60 min support at 39.65. Within 10 minutes below the 7200-tick line, the 30 min channel will roll over.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:08:21 AM
Bonds have continued to weaken, with the TNX now down 4.7 bps at 4.265%, breaking 4.26% resistance with barely a pause. ZN bond futures are down .312 to 111.6719.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  10:07:09 AM
A 4B 8-day repo from the Fed results in a small 500M net drain for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  10:04:58 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  10:02:31 AM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,211.59 , QQQQ $39.85

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  10:00:51 AM
ML Macadamia Orchard LP (NYSE:NUT) $5.53 +0.72% .... had mentioned this one in the 11/23/04 (06:38:53 PM) Market Monitor, and after a nice 30% gain, I've been taking some profits and would suggest others that might have played long also pick the tree.

Thinly traded, so try selling just a little at a time (no more than 1,000 shares)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  9:58:09 AM
The Fed has 4.5B in expiring repos today, with no announcement yet from the open market desk as to the morning's operations.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:56:06 AM
The OEX breaks higher out of that coil and heads up to test the day's high, the top of its rising regression channel, and Keltner resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  9:54:27 AM
The 30 min cycle turned up for QQQQ, responding now to the opening strength. 7200-tick SMA support at 39.82 hasn't yet been tested, with the bounce coming from a session low of 39.84. This confirms the 30 min cycle strength, and while bears can expect resistance at 39.95 now (former opening support), it will take a drive below the 7200-tick SMA line to arrest the 30 min cycle's upphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:52:13 AM
The OEX coils on its three-minute chart, coiling beneath the top of its ascending regression channel (and the day's high, of course).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:50:55 AM
My 9:43 post was in error on one point: as other writers have noted, the VIX heads higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  9:48:12 AM
VIX.X 11.96 +6.5% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 10.86, 11.00, Piv= 11.27 11.41, 11.68.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:46:32 AM
Time to scan other indices: The TRAN is trading near the flat-line level, trying a tepid rise this morning and then falling back. The SOX currently challenges its 200-ema. The RLX climbs, like the OEX, but hasn't broken above the descending trendline off its November high. The GSO is higher, but hasn't broken above the appropriate right-shoulder level on its daily chart. The GHA is higher, but still within a congestion zone. No clear evidence either way can be found here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:43:19 AM
The advdec line drops fast, but TRIN's not climbing fast and volatility indices head lower. I'm past suggesting that that's a contrarian signal.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  9:42:21 AM
7200 tick SMA support is at 39.81, the line in the sand for 30 min cycle bulls.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  9:41:08 AM
A quick clothesline drop has just given back all of QQQQ's gains from the past 2 hours, testing support at 39.85 currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:40:55 AM
The OEX pulls back into its ascending regression channel again. This is the ideal place for a pullback, even for a strongly performing index, perhaps to the midline of the ascending regression channel. Sure wish the internals supported the idea that there would be that pullback, but they just don't.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:37:27 AM
As I typed, the OEX began pushing above the ascending regression channel that's been in place since early November. It did this early Thursday morning, too, but the push didn't hold. I'm anxious to see what internals do after the first volatility this morning, but so far, they sure don't advise bears to jump on this just yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  9:36:03 AM
The picture is complicated by the light volume, with 3M QQQQ shares traded so far today- normal levels would be closer to the 6-7M mark by now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:35:36 AM
The OEX pushes above 577.40, but remember that when we're talking about Keltner lines, we're talking about closes, so we're looking to see whether the OEX closes above or below that Keltner resistance on a 60-minute basis. The top of the OEX's two-months-in-the-making ascending regression channel is just ahead, with further Keltner resistance just above 580, up to 581.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  9:35:03 AM
QQQQ is holding above 30 min channel resistance just below confluence at 40.00. It will take nothing less than a strong trending move to plow higher from here, but even short cycle bears should forget above downside so long as QQQQ holds above the 39.94 line.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:32:12 AM
The OEX opens at the five-minute 100/130-ema's and bounces, now nearing the likely resistance at the 577.40-ish level. We'll see if it holds.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/27/20,  9:28:55 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) using 81.28 as Friday's close...

WEEKLY Pivot levels .... 80.74, 81.01, Piv = 81.57, 81.84, 82.40.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  9:21:17 AM
NQ has aborted its 30 min cycle downphase based on the overnight data, while QQQQ has yet to do so. If bulls can just hold these levels past the cash open at 9:30, the 30 min cycle oscillators for QQQQ should turn back up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  9:19:33 AM
Session high for QQQQ here at 39.97, +.22, and ES at 1216.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  9:04:54 AM
With futures higher this morning, it's possible that the OEX could head straight up to test that 577.40 level shown as resistance on the OEX's 60-minute Keltner chart. As the charts are configured now, that resistance looks strong, but a gap above it this morning would turn it into strong likely support. Let's see what happens as markets open, as it's not always possible to translate SPX futures activity pre-cash-open into OEX activity at the cash open. The OEX has been climbing in an ascending regression channel on its 60-minute chart throughout November and December, having touched the top of that channel last Thursday, so that adds to the impression that the OEX might be facing strong resistance. The top of that QCharts-drawn regression channel is now at about 578.20, the midline at about 571.70, and the lowest line at about 565.40. Staying anywhere within that ascending regression channel is bullish, but the OEX will be maintaining its sign of strength if it retreats only to the midline and then rises from there . . . or if it doesn't retreat at all, of course.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  8:59:27 AM
Crude oil is down 3.68% to 42.55 currently, -1.625 for the day, while gold has inched higher to 444.50, off a high of key 445 resistance. QQQQ is now up 14 cents to 39.90 and testing 30 min channel resistance at that level, just below the 60 min channel top at 39.96.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  8:21:56 AM
Bonds continue lower, with TNX quoted at 4.248%, +3 bps. Next resistance is at the 4.26% line.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  8:12:10 AM
Session low for bonds here, with ZN futures going negative, -.046 to 111.9375.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  7:30:08 AM
ES has joined the R2K futures at a low-volume session high, currently up 3.25 at 1215.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/27/20,  7:09:25 AM
QQQQ has just opened in the green, catching up to the futures, +.08 at 39.84. ES is trading 1214.5, NQ 1625, YM 10856 and the R2K is up 2 to 653.3, a session high. Gold is up 1.2 to 444, silver .064 to 6.984, also a session high. Oil is down -2.21% or 97.5 cents a barrel to 43.20.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/27/20,  6:19:07 AM
Good morning. The strongest earthquake in 40 years hit Sumatra yesterday, with the earthquake and resultant tsunami killing 14,000-20,000 people, depending on the estimate. Entire seaside villages in several countries were washed out to sea. India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand were among countries reporting massive numbers of deaths. Deaths were reported as far away as Somalia, one report noted, with Somalia 3,000 miles away from the origin of the tsunami.

While we feel great sorrow for the suffering across the world, our task on these pages is to discuss financial impacts. Asian and European markets traded cautiously as the financial impact was assessed. Because the impact was on the tourist industry rather than other industries, some theorized that the world economy would not see a significant impact, but the effect on the insurers must be included. It's the insurers that keep gains modest in Europe this morning. Our futures kept to the straight-line until the European open and then climbed. As of 6:01 EST, gold was up $0.80 and crude, down $1.03. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After soaring Friday, the Nikkei opened near the flat-line level Monday and then sank. The Nikkei spent the rest of the morning session and early afternoon session climbing to its day's high, then oscillating around the flat-line level. It closed down 3.13 points or 0.03%, at 11,362.35. Throughout Asia, travel-related and technology issues declined in early trading. In Japan, a report speculating that NEC Corp's chip unit would see operating profit lower by almost 50% from the year-ago period sent that company's stock lower. Banks tended to trade higher, though.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but ones most commonly watched in this report traded lower. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.56%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.33%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.22%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.28%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.37%.

European markets also turn in mixed performances today in trading characterized as thin. The FTSE 100 remains closed through tomorrow. Airliners and insurers were hit by worries over the effect of the tsunami. Most insurers and reinsurers say they cannot yet determine the ultimate impact due to the tsunami. Speculation still surrounds exchange Euronext and whether it will make a bid for the London Stock Exchange. Euronext traded lower, but the exchange is not a CAC 40 component.

As of 6:01 EST, the CAC 40 had gained 5.75 points or 0.15%, to trade at 3,828.51. The DAX had gained 7.45 points or 0.18%, to trade at 4,259.07.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/26/20,  8:41:32 PM
The OEX closed last week with a weekly closing high not seen since March 2002. The weekly candle was a strong one, although Thursday's daily one did not appear so strong, leaving behind a long upper shadow. The last three days' trading pattern is reminiscent of an advance block bearish pattern, a pattern that sees three white-candle days, with each day's close higher than the previous one, but each candle body smaller than the previous one. Just a week ago, the OEX printed such a pattern and then saw the strong decline of 12/17, so we know it can be susceptible to this pattern. So that's a bull's first concern.

The second concern relates to some of the indicator indices I've been watching. The TRAN did not follow through with the gains seen on some indices, printing a red doji at the top of its climb after printing a doji the day before. The TRAN, an index that often leads the S&P's and Dow, looks as if it might need to retreat or move sideways. The TRAN, however, does not always follow through with such a retreat or pullback after giving such a signal. Sometimes it does; sometimes it doesn't. The intraday charts of the RLX and OEX have looked remarkably similar in shape over the previous week, and some of the OEX's gains have been made on the backs of its retailers, but the RLX did not inspire bullish hopes, either. It's finding resistance at its 30-sma, an average that provided support for the previous two weeks. Some other recent leading indices--the SOX, GHA and GSO--also failed to inspire bullish hopes Thursday. The SOX closed a cent below its 200-ema, failing once again to move above it and preserving the possibility of a right-shoulder formation, as did the GSO. The GHA consolidated near a recent pattern's low.

I'm not even going to mention the volatility indices, as it should be clear by now that they're not good market-timing tools. Well, maybe I will mention them a little--at levels in the 11's, the VIX and VXO show little fear in the markets.

So, the trend is up, but underpinnings perhaps remain shaky. It's dangerous to try to pick a top, and I'm not going to do that unless there are signs that internals are on the side of a bearish play, but bulls should be protecting profits, too. OEX bulls in particular need to see the RLX and TRAN hold up and tech-related indices play a little catch-up. The OEX's 60-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX might find significant resistance now in the 577.40-ish level. That chart appears to show nearby resistance stronger than nearby support. That suggests that the OEX might find it easier to fall than to climb much past that 577.40-ish level, but perhaps not fall until that level is retested. Unless the OEX can gap above that level Monday or push above it in early going, it might firm up and the OEX might be vulnerable to 572.70 or even 568.50. OEX bulls want to see the OEX maintain 60-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 575.96 to avoid that possibility. That Keltner line is near the five-minute 100/130-ema's from which the OEX has been bouncing lately, with those averages at 576.00 and 575.66. So, a drop below those averages, especially for an hour, would suggest that the OEX can no longer bounce so readily from those averages. If internals are strong, bounces from those averages could be attempted, but only with full knowledge of possible 60-minute Keltner resistance at 577.40 or so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/26/20,  7:48:17 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) with WEEKLY Pivot Matrix at this Link

Point and figure chart at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/26/20,  7:48:02 PM
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