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  OI Technical Staff   12/28/20,  6:56:00 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  5:29:42 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  5:10:31 PM
2 Big blocks of 20,000 each in the Retail HOLDRs (RTH) $98.43 +0.90% Link at the close.

Might be a "love struck bull" making a play into Valentine's Day, which tend to be an ending seasonal run for the retailers. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  4:08:25 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Yesterday's activity ....

Was stopped out of the swing trade long in the QQQQ at $39.50. ($-0.24, or -0.60%)

Today's activity ....

Sold two (2) SNDK Apr. $22.50 calls (SWQ-DX) at the bid of $4.00. ($0.70, or $140.00). These two (2) were profiled bullish on 12/02/04 when SNDK was trading $22.98.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  4:06:39 PM
Happy vacation from me, too, Jonathan.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/28/20,  4:01:35 PM
Happy New Year Jonathan.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  4:00:37 PM
I will be away from the Monitor starting tomorrow until Monday. I'll be posting my short and mid-term thoughts in tonight's Futures Wrap. In the meantime, I'll wish you all a safe and happy New Year.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  3:57:39 PM
Bullish swing trade close out alert ... let's sell two (2) of the SNDK April $22.50 calls (SWQ-DX) at the bid of $4.00

SNDK $24.85 -1.85% ....

Will continue to hold one (1)

Smith Barney reiterated "cautious" stance today, thinking that there may still be some pricing risk in Q4. Firm says that Q4 industry revenues are tracking 7% below norm, with SNDK 2% below normalized Q4 growth. For SNDK, firm says QTD bit growth and ASP/MB analysis highlight pricing risks in Q4, and says that from Oct and Nov NPD actuals, it seems reasonable that SNDK's price/MB could decline 42-50%, versus company's prior guidance of -30%, while bit growth could range from 60-80%, vs co guidance of 90%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  3:50:29 PM
The TRAN again approaches the 12/22 high of 3803.75, with the TRAN at 3803.44 as I type. Note: exceeded it as I typed.

I mentioned earlier today that the TRAN has shown this pattern of climb, three or four days of consolidation, climb many times. Each time, it seems that it needs a deeper pullback before it climbs again, but it just keeps climbing. Despite how I feel about the heaviness of the markets, the OEX's clinging to its five-minute 100/130-ema's longer than it did before, and other such signs, calling a top has been a dangerous exercise for a while and may continue to be so.

I don't like the SOX's trouble with its 200-ema, the GSO's lingering around a right-shoulder level for a potential H&S on the daily chart (although the GSO, too, tries to rise), and the former lead index GHA's failure to lead higher, but the TRAN and RUT keep reaching new highs, and the BIX and RLX near potential breakouts of their own. If they should break to the upside, too, the OEX may be carried higher, too, rather than break down out of the potential broadening formation on its 60-minute chart. Anyone trading in 2003, as most of us were, knows that you follow the trend until the trend breaks. It hasn't yet. I'm still sure I'm going to be the last chump mentioning the trend and I still feel that the markets are heavy, so I continue to suggest that you take profits readily and adhere to any stops if bullish. But until you at least have internals on your side, it continues to be dangerous to anticipate the top.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  3:47:08 PM
Bidder up ... for the Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $67.67 +1.75%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  3:39:46 PM
Volume is rising along with strength as QQQQ breaks the previous high of 39.96, trying for 40.00 resistance here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  3:28:31 PM
QQQQ is parked at 39.92, now back above the 7200-tick SMA line. The 30 min and 60 min cycle channels are virtually superimposed now and appear to be cresting at the top of day-long upphases. The sideways chop for the past 2 hours would mesh well with a topping sequence for these long intraday cycles, and if so, a move below 39.70 support should be enough to kick off the next multi-hour downphase. Above 40 and the upward momentum from this morning should reassert itself. I personally expect the former to occur, but the price will tell us which way it wants to go.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  3:23:16 PM
What do Keltner charts suggest about the OEX? Over the very near term, they suggest that support near 576.40 and slightly above looks stronger than nearby resistance, but that picture could change when the OEX runs up toward 577-577.40 (if it does), where resistance could thicken again. Too close to call when trying to weight resistance and support and figure out which is stronger.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  3:15:52 PM
The OEX attempts another bounce from the five-minute 100/130-ema's. Bulls want to see a new five-minute high, with the previous one at 577.08.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  3:15:17 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  3:07:26 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/28/20,  3:04:37 PM
At 3:42 a.m. on July 28, 1976, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake hit the sleeping city of Tangshan, in northeastern China. The very large earthquake, striking an area where it was totally unexpected, obliterated the city of Tangshan and killed over 240,000 people - making it the deadliest earthquake of the twentieth century.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  3:03:57 PM
For those not following the Futures Monitor, Mark and Jane have posted about previous earthquakes that caused casualties in the hundreds of thousands. Thanks for the correction to my 16:56.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  3:03:37 PM
The OEX again slips just below the five-minute 100/130-ema's, but not yet to a new low. It's now clinging to the underside of those averages, as reluctant to break lower as it has been to break higher.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  3:01:39 PM
I wonder how many days in a row the SOX can complete a small-bodied candle marching sideways, between 50-sma support and 200-ema resistance? It's been about seven so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  2:59:51 PM
Treasuries reversing losses to their close. 10-year ($TNX.X) unchanged at 4.291%.

Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 793.47 +2.88% , Pulte Home (PHM) $63.18 +3.13% just off session high of $63.48.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:59:45 PM
It seems odd, doesn't it, Jonathan, to be sitting in our offices discussing markets, with that going on. I feel as if I should be digging through rubble, helping. Jane mentioned concern about the death tolls this morning, too, in an email. Yesterday, Mark offered concern and condolences to our readers in countries impacted by this natural disaster, and I certainly add mine as I'm sure we all do.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  2:56:40 PM
I'm seeing reports now placing the death toll from the tsunamis at 50000, the worst natural disaster in recorded history.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:54:28 PM
The TRAN is back below 3800. That's not a big fall--just a few points--but watch for a decline below 3790.81, as that's the confirmation level for a double-top formation on the intraday chart. The TRAN has become more volatile again over the last couple of days, zooming down yesterday and up today and may be getting ready for a breakout one direction or the other.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  2:54:03 PM
Jeff, I enjoy your articles and analysis. I currently hold Jan. calls on PD and DNA. DNA has broken out today and I am hopeful that PD will soon break 100. What is your view on these? DNA apperas to have an inverse H&S with the head low ocuring in late Oct. Is this a valid H&S and is my projection of $60 reasonable?

Here's a chart of DNA I put together today. Making some tie with BTK.X action. Link

DNA does have a "reverse head/shoulder" looking pattern (head $41.00, neckline $51.40-$51.70), which might hint at $60. Never know for sure, but $60 by January expire might be stretching it a bit, unless major announcement coming?

Made quick note of Jan. "Max Pain" so take into consideration. Stock has been "pegged" for better part of session at $55 and bull might be willing to lock in gains on further strength to upper $57 area, protect current position on slip much under $54.40.

WEEKLY Pivot levels for DNA are ... $49.80, $51.83, Piv = $52.93, $54.95, $56.06.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:52:18 PM
Every time I look at TRIN, I expect to see it rising because I keep feeling that the markets are feeling heavy, but it's not.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  2:50:40 PM
QQQQ's just dipped below the 7200-tick SMA support line at 39.91, which could be the start of something- but then, it wasn't when it last occurred an hour and a half ago. The 30 min cycle channel has stalled and is now pointed sideways, with the 60 min cycle losing its uptilt as well.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:44:40 PM
And the OEX comes right back down to that descending trendline it just broke above and to the five-minute 100/130-ema's. This just isn't acting right. It doesn't feel right for an upside breakout. Maybe the OEX just needs to pull back and rev up a little more before rising again, but I just don't like the way it can't get too far away from those five-minute 100/130-ema's this afternoon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:41:14 PM
So far, the RLX has not broken above the descending trendline off the November high, although it's still within striking distance. The TRAN has not broken above yesterday's high and the top of the recent consolidation pattern. The SOX has not broken above the 200-ema. One recent leader, the GHA, is far from breaking above recent highs or any trendline and closer to breaking down below one. The Russell 2000 has broken just above yesterday's high. It may be trying to lead the way, but it's going to need the cooperation of at least some of these recent "leading" indices.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  2:39:49 PM
QQQQ is hanging within a 3 cent range and has done so for the past hour. A break above 40 or below 39.84 should be directional, but short of that, we're stuck within a low volume, low volatility chopzone.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/28/20,  2:32:00 PM
Linda funny you should say that (14:21 post) because I feel the same way. There is just not a bullish feeling about this market despite the price action and the TRIN.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  2:23:08 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:21:54 PM
Today is a day that I'd have to describe myself as sort of dragged kicking and screaming into the bullish side. I don't see anything particular to make me feel that way, but can't shake the skepticism. That doesn't mean I'd ignore what I see on the charts, though. I'd just be ready to take profits quickly and prepared to adhere to stops.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:20:21 PM
The OEX moves above the descending trendline off the day's high, but there has not yet been a five-minute close above that level, confirming the breakout . . . just was one.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:18:39 PM
The Russell 2000 inches above yesterday's 651.72 high, with the Russell 2000 currently at 652.04.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  2:17:26 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   12/28/20,  2:14:58 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:13:51 PM
The OEX tests the descending trendline off the day's high, at 576.70. Wait for a five-minute close above that trendline, at least, before you decide it's been broached. Currently, the OEX pulls back from the test, toward the five-minute 100/130-ema's. Wait for a five-minute close beneath the 130-ema at 576.24 and a move below the last five-minute low at 576.06 before you consider those averages broached to the downside.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  2:11:26 PM
QQQQ took an upside spike to 40 that blew off in a doji shadow, still trading sideways above 39.90. This is either a brilliant distribution zone or it's building cause for a break above 40.00. A move below 39.84 will most likely confirm the bearish interpretation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:06:36 PM
The OEX keeps hovering near the five-minute 100/130-ema's rather than bouncing strongly from them. It's coming back now to retest them.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  2:04:52 PM
Today, the RLX tests the descending trendline off its November high. The formation below that trendline could be variously described as a continuation-form H&S, a bull flag or even a potential bearish right triangle with a horizontal supporting line. Whatever it is, an upside breakout would be bullish. That upside break looks as if it would occur with a close above 459 today, with the RLX currently at 457.86. Daily candles have begun to leave upper shadows, however, usually a sign that the RLX will continue to consolidate or else retreat. It's far from certain, then, that a breakout will occur or be sustained if it does. The intraday patterns of the RLX and OEX have mimicked each other lately, with some OEX gains attributable to the retailers it shares with the RLX, so watching the RLX for clues to OEX behavior seems wise. We would want to see the two corroborate each other if breaking out to the upside, not diverge.

 
 
  Jane Fox   12/28/20,  1:55:23 PM
Linda I use the 405 minute for the Globex daily charts without the overnight session. That would correlate with your 390 minute chart because the GLobex markets are open for an addition 15 minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:53:50 PM
After Jonathan asked yesterday for information on obtaining currency quotes on QCharts, a reader sent the following information: Qcharts has a table of root symbols for currencies futures traded on the CME. I believe these are the values that Jonathan follows. Euro is EC, Pound is BP, etc. Syntax follows that of other futures contracts. Delayed quotes unless you have full CME subs. In past when I have checked, amounts closely mirror my actual Fx charts. Thanks, A.W.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:53:07 PM
QQQQ is back above the prior two highs and rising 7200 tick support. Key resistance remains 40.00 where the 30 min and 60 min channel tops intersect.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:51:23 PM
The OEX is attempting another bounce from the five-minute 100/130-ema's. Its decline off the day's high could be termed a possible bull flag, so watch what happens as the flag's resistance at about 576.80 is hit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:49:17 PM
Keene, I used to substitute the 720-minute chart for the daily, but after a reader questioned that choice, I switched to the 390-minute as a substitute because I'm mostly discussing the OEX and the cash market is open 390 minutes. Anyone have a definitive right-or-wrong here?

 
 
  Keene Little   12/28/20,  1:45:11 PM
Linda, whenever I have trouble with daily charts on QCharts (a not infrequent occurence) such as with the US dollar, I use 720 minutes, even with All Sessions to get full day price action.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:43:15 PM
10-year bonds broke yesterday's lows as well, with ZN futures down .109 to 111.4062 here and TNX up 1.5 bps to 4.306%. Next significant resistance is in the 4.40%-4.44% zone, with support now at 4.26%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:42:01 PM
The USD Index continues to chop along near yesterday's lows (30 min refreshable delayed chart at this Link ), and both euro and CAD futures are reflecting its consolidation at the lows, with CAD +.17% today at .8212 and euros -.1% at 1.3614. Gold is up to a 1 point loss at 445.20, silver up .054 at 7.06 and HUI -1.02% at 216.83.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:34:23 PM
QQQQ has fallen below the 72 period SMA and is now testing it from below at 39.87. A failure here will confirm the 30 min channel rollover.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:33:26 PM
QQQQ updated 2-day chart at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   12/28/20,  1:32:59 PM
Amazon.com (AMZN) is also building on yesterday's gains. AMZN is up another 5.3% to $44.50 on strong volume. Yesterday the company said this was their best Christmas season yet and today Bear Stearns upgraded the stock.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:32:32 PM
Thanks, Keene, for the information on the SOX's 200-ema (and -sma). I'm resorting to 390-minute charts. The averages are close to daily ones, but not exact, so I wasn't sure. I see the SOX is still below that 200-ema, but still challenging it.

 
 
  James Brown   12/28/20,  1:30:03 PM
Taylor Devices (TAYD) is up another 16% following yesterday's 172% move. The company makes earthquake protection devices that help buildings absorb the shock of a tremor.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:29:54 PM
We'll see whether the TRIN's current non-bearish level or traditional technical analysis holds most true, because the OEX is now falling back instead of reaching toward the top of its broadening formation on intraday charts. It hasn't fallen back below an appropriate right-shoulder level for the potential continuation-form inverse H&S. Keltner support and resistance still ring it in such a way that it's difficult to give more weight to one or the other. I still think it possible the OEX may make its way down toward the midline of its rising regression channel, now just above 572, but that may depend on the TRAN and SOX and whether they see breakouts or rollovers from these latest tests of important resistance levels. That may also depend on the RLX, higher today, but perhaps in the process of making a lower 15-minute high.

 
 
  James Brown   12/28/20,  1:27:02 PM
BlockBuster Inc (BBI) has reversed an earlier gain of 3.3% into a 1.1% loss. BBI said they will make a hostile bid for Hollywood Entertainment (HLYW) if HLWY's management doesn't deal. The total deal is expected to be about $1 billion.

 
 
  Keene Little   12/28/20,  1:26:37 PM
Linda, on my chart the 200-sma for the SOX is currently at 431.91 (200-ema is at 426.88), so with SOX currently printing 425.98 and a high of 427.48, it has not yet been able to get above its 200-dma.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:26:22 PM
The failure of the bounce to reverse the short cycle downphase has QQQQ back into its descending channel from the 11AM high, and the 30 min cycle channel has ticked lower against the still rising 60 min channel. Any further weakness from here should be enough to start the 30 min downphase. Currently, both 30 and 60 min Keltner resistance is at 40.00, while 30 min support is at 39.74 and 60 min support 39.63.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:24:25 PM
The TRAN's rally today has matched yesterday's decline just about point for point, but the TRAN hasn't yet broken above the 12/22 high of 3803.75, much less sustained values above that level. The TRAN's pattern is one that it's repeated many times over the last months, and although it seems impossible each time that it will continue climbing after such a brief pullback, that's always exactly what it does. The only divergence that I've noted is that the last few breakouts carry the TRAN a smaller distance before it stops again for another consolidation. A sign of weakening? Should be, but I've thought the TRAN should pull back deeper to reestablish support since 3500, and it's challenging 3800.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:24:01 PM
NYSE volume is particularly bleak at 526M here.

 
 
  James Brown   12/28/20,  1:22:14 PM
Uh-oh! XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) is down 2.49% and cracking support at the bottom of its narrow rising channel. Its MACD is in a new sell signal.

BAC trying to defend the stock by reiterating their "buy" rating for XMSR.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:15:07 PM
Since I can't get daily charts, I can't tell whether the SOX has yet broken through the 200-ema, but to the best of my memory, the SOX's current 426.32 level is a level that's testing that moving average but still just testing without a clear breakout.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:14:55 PM
QQQQ's 300 minute stochastics are running behind the price on the 30 min chart, which will be a bearish divergence if the price breaks below the 39.70 level from here. The double top at 40.00 will be a problem for bulls if it holds, and a launchpad if it breaks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:12:01 PM
Those watching 15-minute OEX charts might have noted the potential for a continuation-form inverse H&S on that chart. Here's the problem: there's also a potential for an expanding or broadening formation at the top of the climb off the 12/20 low. We know those have tended to break to the upside lately, but we also know that traditionally, they're bearish and never see a third touch of the top trendline, and that top trendline comes near the confirmation level for the inverse H&S. That top trendline is at about 578.70 currently, but is still climbing. The TRIN suggests that the top trendline will be hit again. Traditional technical analysis suggests that it won't.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:08:31 PM
The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 576.31 and 576.21, respectively, and their support is bouncing the OEX back above the neckline area of its just-barely-confirmed H&S formation. That bounce also comes just above the 38.2% retracement of the rally off this morning's open. TRIN is 0.61, so far supporting the bullish more than the bearish side with the advdec line currently flattish but with its number leaning toward the bullish side, too. Keltners aren't giving many clues, with the OEX between support and resistance, with support perhaps slightly stronger than resistance, but only perhaps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:08:30 PM
Volume has picked up slightly on the upswing in the last few minutes, which came on a successful test of 7200-tick SMA support on the intraday chart. The pattern is stretching the bull flag to the upside and otherwise behaving like an impending cup and handle breakout. A high volume blast above 40.00 QQQQ would likely be the real deal and pave the way to a rapid test of 40.12 and 40.20 resistance.

 
 
  James Brown   12/28/20,  1:06:59 PM
OI call play COF is hitting new all-time highs with a 1.6% gain.

 
 
  James Brown   12/28/20,  1:05:17 PM
OI call play BBOX is up 1.8% and bouncing from the $46.00 level.

 
 
  James Brown   12/28/20,  1:04:52 PM
OI call play BDKis up 1.86% and cracking the $87 level again....

 
 
  James Brown   12/28/20,  1:04:16 PM
OI call play BIIB is up 3.6% to $67.97 and breaking out from its two-week trading range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:04:11 PM
Unfortunately, I'm having QCharts issues that started about an hour ago. I've been on the phone with tech support and have gotten some charts back, but not all. I'm limping along, and will provide all the information I can gather. Basically, I can get intraday charts of the OEX, but not much else.

 
 
  James Brown   12/28/20,  1:03:47 PM
Stocks are definitely on the upswing... the XAL airline index and the XAU Gold index are the only sector indices in the red and only fractionally so.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:03:00 PM
Volume is light so far today, with 37.6M QQQQ shares so far vs. yesterday's 67.3M QQQQ shares and the average of 91.24M.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   12/28/20,  1:02:24 PM
The upside surprise in the 10:00 numbers, noted by Jeff in his Intraday Update, prompted an intraday rally, but as I noted last night, the OEX had already ended the day at a potential bounce point, and bounce it did. Markets have been led higher by the TRAN, zooming up to challenge the December and multi-year highs. The TRAN climbed to within a few cents of its 12/22 high of 3303.75, but it's fallen back below that since then. The SOX, too, mustered enough strength to mount another challenge of its 200-sma. The OEX zoomed higher, too, but unlike the TRAN did not approach recent highs. A few minutes ago, it confirmed a H&S on the five-minute chart, but immediately hit the five-minute 100/130-ema's and has begun a bounce from them.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  1:00:15 PM
While we saw equities, treasuries and the dollar down together yesterday, today has equities up, bonds down and the dollar chopping sideways near yesterday's lows- but not making any new lower lows either. Gold is down, with YG futures -1.20 at 445 on light volume of 506 contracts. Note that crude oil is up for a change, +.55 at 41.875.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   12/28/20,  12:58:01 PM
QQQQ is up solidly on a 30 minute cycle upphase that has been either cresting for the past hour or pausing in a bull flag. This bull flag has been a weak short cycle downphase- a break below 39.78 for 10 minutes will roll over the 30 min cycle and target key support at 39.69, while a break above 39.95 would likely kick off the next stage of the ongoing-but-pausing 30 min upphase. The bullish scenario would be confirmed with an upside break of the 40.00 level.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   12/27/20,  9:18:55 PM
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