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  OI Technical Staff   1/2/2005,  4:58:29 PM

Click here for bonus info: Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  10:08:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ...

Day traded long Ameritrade (AMTD) at the offer of $14.21. Was stopped at $14.19.

Closed out one (1) of the Russell 2000 Growth iShares IWO May $63 calls (IWO-EK) at the bid of $6.40.

Monthly/Quarterly Trade Blotter at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  9:46:11 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  9:27:15 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Note: New MONTHLY pivot levels.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  4:05:05 PM
SPY ... 120.92

  Jane Fox   12/31/20,  4:02:45 PM
Happy New Year Linda and see you on Monday.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  4:02:22 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,211.97 -0.12%

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  4:00:08 PM
It looks as if the SOX will close above its 200-sma for the first time since early December, an effort I expected to be made today. That 200-sma will serve as a benchmark Monday, too, so we'll see if the close holds then.

Happy New Year, everyone.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  3:53:53 PM
Surprisingly, the OEX's candlestick pattern on the daily chart--Tuesday's tall white candle, followed by the three sinking-lower small-bodied candles--could be part of a bullish candlestick pattern known as a mat hold. The three small-bodied candles must stay within the range of the first day that produced the tall white candle, and that's happened. This is a continuation pattern as investors consolidate recent gains, and it's completed by a tall white candle the fifth day--Monday, in this case--that breaks to a new high. As with all candlestick patterns, you can't assume it's going to be confirmed before it is, but what looks bearish and feels bearish sometimes isn't all that bearish.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  3:49:48 PM
Swing trade sell 1 bullish call alert .... let's sell one (1) of the IWO May $63 Calls (IWO-EK) at the bid of $6.40.

IWO $67.50.

  Marc Eckelberry   12/31/20,  3:46:20 PM
QQQQ Feb 40 put, profiled a few days ago as a buy, is now at 1.05. We bought at 1, but I consider this still a buy. Holding over into next week. Stop is .50.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  3:46:09 PM
At about 575.27, the OEX faces the ascending trendline off the 12/9 low.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  3:43:56 PM
Unless the OEX bounces strongly during this five-minute period, leaving only a candle shadow down at the current level, it has now negated the potential inverse H&S. That spike higher earlier came as there were some shenanigans going on in the currency markets, shenanigans that have now settled down, perhaps allowing the indices to go the way they were headed earlier.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  3:42:47 PM
Bullish day trade stop alert ... for Ameritrade (AMTD) $14.19 -0.07

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  3:41:05 PM
And there goes the OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's again.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  3:40:01 PM
The OEX's pullback could be into a right shoulder for the potential inverse H&S on the five-minute chart. Much depends on whether the 576.50 support holds.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  3:35:51 PM
Bullish day trade raise stop alert .... for Ameritrade (AMTD) $14.24 +0.28% .... to $14.19.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  3:28:55 PM
I guess the rising advdec line all day told the tale. That's why we all watch it.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  3:25:33 PM
Despite lots of trying over the last couple of days, the RLX has so far not been able to push above the November high. That still looks like a possible up shape, perhaps one that needs a pullback into a handle, with a cup-and-handle formation being a continuation formation. A deeper pullback would hint at another formation that's not a continuation formation but a reversal one--a double-top formation.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  3:15:18 PM
The SOX remains above its 200-sma and I would bet there's an effort to keep it there into the year's close this afternoon. I thought there would be yesterday, too, and that effort wasn't successful, but the SOX isn't the only tech-related index that's posting gains today, no matter how tepid some are. The DDX has even broken out to a new high. The GSO and GHA haven't, but do post gains as I type.

  James Brown   12/31/20,  3:03:55 PM
OI call play BBOX is up 1.88% and clearing minor resistance at the $48 level.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  3:03:43 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  3:03:14 PM
Reader Question: Has there been any dissussion in the Monitor or in OI about the new trading regulations that go into effect on Monday? I don't fully understand the implications of these new "locate and delivery regulations". Do they affect options as well as stocks?

Response: While we on OIN are not attorneys (well, most of us aren't) and so can't give advice as to meeting trading regulations, we can serve as a good resource. Does anyone have a source for clarifications for new rules to go into effect Monday?

  James Brown   12/31/20,  3:02:02 PM
Potential entry point - PACCAR Inc (PCAR) is up 1.13% to $80.82 and breaking out over resistance at the $80 level. There was a spike back to $81.42 in early December so some traders may want to wait for PCAR to clear that high.

  James Brown   12/31/20,  2:59:52 PM
Exit Alert! OI call play GOOG has hit our profit/exit range in the $199-200 region. We are closing the play and suggest readers consider doing the same. We added GOOG to the list at $183 on Dec. 20th.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:52:47 PM
The OEX has so far been stopped by the red horizontal resistance depicted on the chart linked to my 10:21 post. The pattern beneath that resistance is beginning to look like a bullish right triangle now, with a horizontal top and ascending bottom trendline, but the pattern keeps morphing. A push above the 12/27 high of 578.12 should be more upside going, but how much more? The OEX would then soon meet the top of its ascending regression channel at about 579.60, currently. A rollover and drop below 575.30 gets that whole mid-channel level in play again.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:45:57 PM
Currency markets are starting to do some jumping around, too.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:39:48 PM
So far, the TRAN has another doji on the daily chart, to follow yesterday's and the day before's. This is an expected pattern for the TRAN. I expected it to produced either some kind of small-bodied candle or an actual red candle today. I wouldn't expect it to make spectacular gains, but with this kind of action this afternoon, anything can happen.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:36:48 PM
The DRG still can't get over its 200-sma. It is participating in the rally, however.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  2:35:24 PM
I said.... "All-time high al_rt...." .... Ameritrade (AMTD) $14.20 (unch)

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:34:19 PM
Well, I guess we can say the OEX is over the five-minute 100/130-ema's now, right? It doesn't look inclined to honor potential 577 resistance, either.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  2:34:04 PM
All-time high alert XBD.X 153.28 +0.56% ....

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:30:39 PM
The OEX closed that last five-minute period above its five-minute 100/130-ema's, but only barely, leaving a long upper shadow behind on that five-minute candle. It's apparently leaving one above the current five-minute candle, too, not closing above those averages, but at them. It's not assured yet that the OEX can actually push through those averages. If it does, watch 577 resistance, as that might be a point from which the OEX would pull back, perhaps into a right shoulder for a larger inverse H&S. We're battling formations today, though, because this bounce came as the OEX rejected the neckline of a regular H&S at the LOD.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:25:06 PM
About thirty minutes ago, the TRAN climbed above the descending trendline off this morning's HOD, achieved in the first fifteen minutes of trading.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  2:24:10 PM
Wilshire 5000 12,012.67 +0.2%

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:22:07 PM
All day today, the OEX has traded beneath its five-minute 100/130-ema's, coming up to test them near 11:00 and then falling back again. It's currently moving toward them, at 576.54 and 576.58, respectively. . . . just shot above them as I typed. A five-minute close above them, which seems likely but isn't a given, would then show a change in trend.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  2:18:04 PM
It's gett'n green....

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:12:39 PM
The OEX approaches possible resistance from 576.25-576.33.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  2:11:29 PM
Wilshire 5000 1,2001.45 ... making its move here. :)

1,2004 just ahead.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  2:04:39 PM
02:00:04 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:03:36 PM
Stepping away for a few minutes.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  2:01:10 PM
OEX 576.24-576.34 may be next resistance.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  1:59:22 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Jane Fox   12/31/20,  1:51:49 PM
Linda have you not found the AD line to be a better market internal than the TRIN of late?

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  1:49:53 PM
The advdec line continues rising, as it has since about 9:30, but so does the TRIN.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  1:35:39 PM
The SOX is currently above yesterday's HOD.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  1:29:40 PM
The TRAN is bouncing again from just below 3800, facing Keltner and historical resistance near 3803.85.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  1:24:25 PM
The SOX is showing some Keltner style bearish divergence with each approach to a certain Keltner line. That line is now at 433.96. If the bearish divergence continues true to course, the SOX might punch above that level, but wouldn't show a 15-minute close much above it on the current swing higher.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  1:11:37 PM
The OEX looks as if it's attempting to form an inverse H&S on its two-minute chart, although it still lacks a right shoulder and is rudimentary so far. If that formation confirms, the upside target won't be big, perhaps enough to bring it up to retest this morning's opening level.

This is forming right at the neckline of a much bigger regular H&S on the five-minute chart, one that the OEX appears to be trying mightily to avoid confirming. That neckline is now at just above 575.50.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  1:06:52 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Noting today's high for the Wishire 5000.

That's about as round as one can get

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  12:57:03 PM
SOX, GSO and GHA all remain positive. Bears want to see that changed.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  12:55:30 PM
The TRAN just inched below 3800. Let's see if it holds.

  Tab Gilles   12/31/20,  12:53:31 PM
Going into '05 I'm still bullish on semi's SMH, INTC and Profund SMPIX. Link I also agree with Jim on the energy/oil sector, I'm bullish using the XLE (see 12/29 12:04 MM post) and MUR Murphy Oil, as well as the pharmas, PFE & PPH/$DRG. Those 3 sectors will be the ones to watch in the coming year.

Wishing everyone a Happy and Healthy New Year.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  12:53:12 PM
Google (GOOG) $196.00 -0.79% ... almost got $200.00 this morning but just shy at $199.88.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  12:37:12 PM
The TRAN has not yet slipped beneath 3800, something that market bears want to see, especially if bearish in the S&P's and Dow, since the TRAN sometimes leads these indices. Neither has the SOX dipped back below the 200-sma, something tech bears want to see. Dangerous to make too many assumptions without that corroboration.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  12:35:22 PM
Dialysis Corp. (DCAI) $25.58 +33.9% ... pressing on volume.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  12:34:01 PM
I return in time to find the OEX slipping to a new LOD, the bears' first wish after the rollover beneath the five-minute 100/130-ema's. Next, bears want to see a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 575.77. That sets up a potential retest of the midline of the OEX's rising regression channel on the 60-minute chart.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  12:23:58 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  12:09:30 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  12:02:23 PM
Chuck (SCH) $12.11 +2.62% ... XBD.X challenges 52-week highs.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  12:01:37 PM
Day trade long alert ... for Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) $14.21 (unch) here, stop $14.14, target $14.40 by the close.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  11:58:44 AM
Horizon Offshore (HOFF) $2.16 +88% ... must be a decent sized contract eh?

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  11:49:32 AM
Ugh! ... Jupiter Media (JUPM) $23.85 -0.58% Link ...

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  11:33:24 AM
On the futures side, Keene has mentioned some rising wedges. I'm scanning charts so I can find the definitive thing to tell you about the markets today (can't find a thing, surprise, surprise) and those daily charts sure to look wedgy this month. That's not usually indicative of a healthy climb.

Speaking of "not healthy," I've been trying to hang in here until something happened on the markets, but need to rest my fevered brain an hour or so. Bears want to see a new OEX LOD and want to see the TRAN below 3800 and the SOX below its 200-sma while they're asking. I'll be back as soon as the medication kicks in and the fever goes down a little.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  11:21:17 AM
And the OEX did roll over beneath the five-minute 100/130-ema's, as it looked as if it might. (See my 9:51 post.) Bears hoping to see the midline of the OEX's rising regression channel, near 573, of course first need to see a new LOD.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  11:14:03 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  11:07:59 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:58:48 AM
This morning, the RLX dipped deeper than it usually does, dipping below the three-minute 100/130-ema's, all the way to the five-minute versions. It's bouncing from them now, not yet confirming by a new HOD.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:57:33 AM
The TRAN trails along just above 3800. Unlike the OEX, it has not been mounting a retest of the five-minute 100/130-ema's from the underside.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  10:54:55 AM
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $7.67 +2.43% ... updated chart I have been following since I first started trading the stock on 11/18/04. Link

Another trader just joining Market Monitor holds some calls around the same time and was wondering what to do with them. Primary reason I exited remaining calls on 12/08/04 was that stock achieved PnF chart's bullish vertical count, after "inside day" on 12/03/04, stock climbed to peak, then violated prior day's low (12/07/04).

As I review past trade, can't say I'm unhappy that we sold calls on 12/08/04.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:54:40 AM
I was just taking a look at the OEX's weekly chart. So far, the OEX's weekly candle is a doji at the top of its climb. If this week ends up producing a doji after all, it looks like the first one since the climb off October's low although the OEX did produce another type of potential reversal signal a couple of weeks ago. Sometimes the OEX turns down after a weekly doji and sometimes it prints a series of other small-bodied candles in a row for a few weeks.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:44:28 AM
The OEX is still testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's but still not able (as I type) to push above them.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:30:10 AM
The OEX continues coiling beneath it five-minute 100/130-ema's. Either the pattern is resolving into a bullish right triangle beneath that resistance or the OEX is just coming up to retest them, having already broken through the former symmetrical triangle. The advdec remains pitiful.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  10:26:34 AM
Toll Brothers (TOL) $68.45 +1.33% Link ... Destiny calls a new all-time high. Set to test its bullish vertical count of $69.00.

Should Tol announce a 2:1 split, this is what the supply/demand chart would look like. Link

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  10:24:30 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:21:14 AM
Reader Question: Can you elaborate a little on oex resistance between here and 586, please?

Response: Certainly. The five-minute 100/130-ema's near horizontal resistance near 577 remains the prime nearby resistance. Here are some other notations on this chart: Link Notice the continuation-form potential inverse H&S there, but the OEX has not yet been able to confirm it and instead turns back into a second right shoulder. I don't trust these formations particularly, but wanted to note its presence. Jeff might have other ideas, too, as I know he looks at other indicators.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  10:16:05 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:10:31 AM
The advdec line drops, but so does TRIN. VIX climbs. So far, the OEX has difficulty getting above its five-minute 100/130-ema's. With TRIN at the current level, it would certainly be difficult to believe too heartily in rollover potential. As long as the SOX remains above its 200-sma, bulls might be cheered, too. Still, I'd bet on static, caught-between-resistance-and-support trading for the OEX or for a shallow rollover if I had to bet. I don't think I'd advise readers to bet anything today other than lotto money, however.

I'm battling the flu or some other illness this week. I've been trying to hold up while Jonathan is out, but I'm going to have to take some breaks today. I'll try to stick around until we see what's developing before I take one this morning, however.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:05:21 AM
Thanks, subscribers Michael and Team, for the New Year's greetings to us all.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  10:03:46 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Give or take 0.05%, don't be surprised if this isn't what we're looking at by 04:00 PM EST.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:03:38 AM
The SOX is back above its 200-sma. The DRG is not.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  10:00:59 AM
The OEX is going to make another run for the five-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages at 577.05 and 576.96, respectively. It's bouncing between those averages and the Keltner support.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  9:55:43 AM
QQQQ $40.06 +0.18% .... remember my notes from several weeks ago regarding some of those very large after-the-close block trades?

For the most part, that has been a pinning level for the QQQQ the entire month.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  9:52:52 AM
TRIN 0.80 -33.61% .... Daily Pivot Levels ... 0.56, 0.87, Piv = 1.04, 1.35, 1.52.

It doesn't look like I updated yesterday's Pivot Matrix for the TRIN.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  9:51:17 AM
Neither the TRAN nor the OEX has been able to make it above their five-minute 100/130-ema's, rolling over now as I type, but neither at a new LOD. Sure looks like a rollover in progress. Sure wish internals supported it, but in truth, it doesn't matter what supports certain actions in a light-volume day. Indices are going to go or not go where those skeleton crews on Wall Street want them to go or not go, unless something gets away from them. The OEX is back at mid-channel Keltner support, building what looks like a possible "b" distribution pattern. In the past, those have been been considered bearish developments although they do sometimes break to the upside in a strongly trending market. That Keltner support could hold the OEX up, but any other day, I'd say that a rollover down toward 572.75-573 looks more likely.

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  9:48:32 AM
VIX.X 12.71 +1.19% .... Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.10, 12.29, Piv = 12.38, 12.57, 12.66

  Jeff Bailey   12/31/20,  9:46:49 AM
VIX.X alert 12.71 +1.19% ... WEEKLY R2 here.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  9:42:55 AM
The TRAN also comes up to test its five-minute 100/130-ema's, having again tested the 3800 level this morning.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  9:39:10 AM
OEX coming up to test the five-minute 100/130-ema's from the underside. TRIN sure isn't supporting a rollover bearish entry, though, if the OEX should roll over. Neither is the advdec level supporting a bullish one on a push through those averages. No resolution yet.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  9:36:08 AM
Waiting until the early volatility subsides and Jane gives us her take on the internals. TRIN doesn't support any bearish theories as yet, but the advdec line isn't great shakes, either.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  9:34:32 AM
As soon as I uploaded that last post, the SOX charged up to test its 200-sma, and is just above it now.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  9:32:29 AM
Scanning lots of indices, I see many opening near the flat-line level, not moving much. The SOX is moving below its 200-sma, however, but only minimally so far.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  9:30:37 AM
The OEX opens at mid-channel Keltner support and already attempts a bounce. Too early to tell much.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  8:53:47 AM
I don't see any economic releases scheduled today. GE is reaffirming Q4 earnings growth estimates of 13%-20% this morning as well as 2004's profit estimate of $1.57-1.60. I don't have previous estimates in front of me. I see a report that Eli Lilly (LLY) was falling in Instinet pre-market trading, with notes that a study linked the company's Prozac to violent behavior.

A warning: across the globe, volumes have been light. We're one of the few major bourses open or trading a full schedule today and even here, we won't have crude or gold to trade against.

Here's my post from last night for those who didn't have a chance to view it before the MM was archived: A strong end-of-day sell-off plunged the OEX below its five-minute 100/130-ema's, all the way to mid-channel support on the 15-minute Keltner channels. That plunge also sent the OEX back to retest a descending trendline off the 11/27 high, a trendline it had broken through early in the morning. Near mid-morning, I questioned whether indices might not be near their high of the day, and they were. We saw the chop I expected to see the rest of the day until that last 15 minutes. The downdraft brought the SOX back below its 200-sma after punching through it earlier in the day, a pattern that was seen earlier in December, too. The TRAN, as expected, printed another doji after yesterday's. Other indices mustered a little more strength, such as the GHA, GSO, and RLX, although they, too, face resistance of their own and aren't yet in the clear.

Now what? That mid-channel Keltner level might provide a bounce tomorrow if the OEX opens above it. If the OEX should gap below it, say below 575.80, it then looks vulnerable to the midline of its rising regression channel, at about 573 currently. If the OEX bounces, we'll look at possibilities for rollovers, but any plays remains risky this week in the low-volume environment.

Futures have moved up, but modestly, not giving much guidance.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  8:43:46 AM
I am much relieved to hear from my friend and subscriber P. this morning. He has family still in Sri Lanka and visits there often, having just returned from a trip early in December. He relates that his family members have been among the lucky ones although he knows many who were there on vacation and lost their lives. Our sympathy goes out to him for the losses of his friends, and we are so grateful that he and his family survived.

  Linda Piazza   12/31/20,  5:51:45 AM
Good morning and Happy New Year. Of particular interest when talking about Asian and European markets is the expiration at midnight tonight of import quotas into the U.S. of manufactured textiles. Across the globe, many bourses were closed or trading on shortened schedules. The Nikkei and DAX were closed. Other markets were mixed, but more traded down than up. Our futures were steady, recovering slightly from the late-afternoon sell-off. Gold and crude finished the year's trading yesterday. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei will remain closed until January 4, and some other Asian bourses were closed as well. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.64%. South Korea's Kospi was closed as were Singapore's Straits Times and Hong Kong's Hang Seng. Big news in Asia occurred when China's Angang New Steel conceded to buying assets from state-owned Anshan Iron & Steel Group, its parent company. Demand for metals and the government's intention to craft fewer but more competitive producers prompted this move. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.57%.

Many European markets are closed or operating under shortened schedules, and the thin trading produces the kind of aimless pattern that might be expected. In France, November's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 9.9%, the same level as October's. A report suggests that France Telecom will consider raising its subscription rate. More discussion centered around Deutsche Boerse's interest in the London Stock Exchange, with the heads of the two institutions scheduled to meet in early January. U.S. investment firm ACON Investments will buy Royal Ahold's Brazillian retail chain, and Credit Agricole will buy French luxury goods maker Pinault-Printemps-Redoute's remaining stake in a financial services company.

As of 5:49 EST, the FTSE 100 was down 11.10 points or 0.23%, at 4,809.00. The CAC 40 had declined 14.18 points or 0.37%, to 3,813.77.

  OI Technical Staff   12/30/20,  11:51:54 PM
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