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  OI Technical Staff   1/5/2005,  7:33:15 PM

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  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  5:28:47 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ...

Day traded short the QQQQ at $38.63, but was stopped for a loss at $38.80. ($-0.17, or -0.44%)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  4:57:10 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/5/2005,  4:31:17 PM
CNBC just broke into their broadcast to alert views AEOS had raised their estimates. Readers here heard it 30 min earlier.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  4:05:02 PM
No bounce into the close. In my 9:24 post this morning, I said that I "was looking for some possible choppy action today with moves both directions being aborted, perhaps creating a long-legged, small-bodied candle of some sort on the daily chart." The OEX did do that, but I really believed it would have legs or shadows on both sides of the small body. Today's action produced a type of candle that's a potential reversal signal when it comes at the bottom of a decline. We had a potential reversal signal Monday, too, with the bullish mat hold, one that seemed to be fulfilling before the sudden reversal, so "potential" means just that: potential. With downside toward 560.50-561 also being a potential consideration, tomorrow's action may see one potential development or another not met.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/5/2005,  4:02:50 PM
SBUX - reporting same store sales +8% in Q4

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  4:01:21 PM
Back to the lows at the cash close- today's 30 minute cycle upphase has been dismal to say the least.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/5/2005,  4:00:49 PM
AEOS - Raising guidance. Sales up +32%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  3:57:04 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X 1,184.50 -0.29% ... session low and gets the trade at MONTHLY S1.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  3:49:54 PM
The 2-day QQQQ could be printing the right shoulder of a broad 2-day h&s bottom since yesterday afternoon- but 38.50 needs to hold no matter what. It's a sloppy pattern after today's chop, but if QQQQ bulls can clear the 38.95-39.00 neckline, the implied target will be in the 39.45-.50 zone. The short cycle oscillators are oversold, but the 30 min oscillators are not- that's the greatest danger for bulls here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  3:48:50 PM
Here's a 60-minute OEX Keltner chart, with annotations: Link Note that not all developments have to take place today, of course.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  3:44:08 PM
I've been expecting a downside shadow to go with the upside one on the OEX, and a small-bodied candle. If so, that will mean a punch down (happening now) but a quick move up toward the flat-line level, too, by the end of the day. Kinda thought it might happen in a different time frame than it has, so I'm not sure we can count on that long lower shadow, too. Not sure we'll see the bounce after whatever decline we get.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  3:38:24 PM
At a drop below 566.48, the OEX will have confirmed the double-top formation on its five-minute chart. Of course, that wasn't much of a "top," since it occurred after only the briefest of climbs. I'm not certain the downside target would hold, but in any case, this isn't a good development.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  3:29:04 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,187.59 , QQQQ $38.71

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  3:27:53 PM
Today's OEX trading pattern has looked to me as if it's been widening the bear flag it began forming yesterday. If a widening is what's been happening, then it's likely forming as a retracement of the drop off the 1/03 high and not just off yesterday's last drop, so let's look at some Fib levels off the total range from the 1/03 early morning high until yesterday's low. A 38.2% retracement lies at 570.72 and a 50% retracement at about 572.32. The 15-minute mid-channel Keltner level is currently between the two, and I suspect, will have sunk closer to 570.72 when that level is tested. It might add its resistance to that of the Fib level. So, if I were a bear who waited for a potential rollover spot, I think I'd look for it first there. I'd want internals to be making me think it was a good time to be looking as well as a good place to be looking.

At yesterday's close, I believed today would be a consolidate-the-losses day, and that's what it's been so far. That could change in the last twenty minutes of trading.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  3:24:16 PM
The current bounce from a higher low has just failed from a lower high of 38.85 QQQQ, but the short cycle oscillators are trying to turn up and the pullback is on declining volume. This zone between 38.5 and 39.0 remains a blender. Volume is set up to be lighter than yesterday's big 136.8M QQQQ shares, but is still heavy and above average at 113.7M so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  3:21:18 PM
Jane, I heard that part of the interview, too, about healthcare in the eurozone. (See Jane's 14:32 post.) I sure don't want to get into a discussion of the pros and cons of the eurozone's healthcare policies, as I'm certain I'd probably step on someone's toes and maybe on the toes on both sides of the aisle, but I did listen with particular interest. In our family, my youngest granddaughter was born with a rare metabolic disorder that caused neurological damage. As of this month, her physical therapy sessions have been upped to five a week, and there are numerous doctor visits, many out of town as this is a rare disease, and finely tuned management of her diet and injections. She has insurance or could get it through CHIPS, but the problem is with my daughter's insurance. Managing the care of her infant required resigning from her position and losing her own healthcare insurance. In our family, we can pay for private insurance, a plus for us when you consider that some families can't do that. Only, my daughter also happens to have a probable diagnosis of epilepsy. Try finding private insurance when you have a "probable" diagnosis of anything! I don't know what the solution is and am glad I'm not in the decision-making process, but there has to be some kind of solution short of our entire family transplanting to the eurozone. Or Canada?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  3:17:17 PM
Thanks, Jim, for the further information on KMRT. I certainly couldn't find any information, and knew you had more resources than I did. I even tried a few blogs and message boards to see if I could find anything. I figured you'd reply to the readers writing to you, but the ones writing to me were going to go without since I couldn't find anything! Thanks again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  3:14:13 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  3:09:20 PM
Now the OEX's Keltner lines have scattered, not offering predictions about likely direction. The OEX still coils.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  3:04:58 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/5/2005,  3:02:00 PM
KMRT - I heard that blurb on KMRT on a streaming audio news source and they said the rumor on the floor (NYSE) was Spitzer was going after them on some shareholder violation. There were other things going on in my office at the time and I only caught the tail end of the sound bite. I have not seen or heard any further news. Again, it is just a rumor on the floor of the NYSE. Obviously somebody believes it. KMRT -3.45. I had already replied to the reader but thought others needed to hear it as well.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  2:59:56 PM
TRIN 1.15 ... rises to high of session.

SPX.X 1,187.71 -0.02% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  2:57:00 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 374.21 -0.07% ... retreats to unchanged.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  2:52:07 PM
Medtronic (MDT) $48.86 -0.52% ... moves to session low. Sees fiscal 2005 sales at low end of 12-14% range with fiscal 2005 EPS in 14-16% range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  2:51:27 PM
Jim, a reader wanted to know if you'd heard anything more about the KMRT rumor or had other details. (See Jim's 12:56 post.)

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/5/2005,  2:50:45 PM
MCRS splitting 2:1

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  2:49:08 PM
Ten year bonds have pulled back, with TNX up to a .6 bp loss at 4.277% approaching the cash close. 4.26% support has held for the time being. QQQQ continues to chop net sideways, and while the 30 min cycle oscillators have yet to top from the upphase that kicked off this morning, the setup continues to suggest that the next downphase could be a real doozy. Currently, the 30 and 60 min cycle channels are drifting sideways, support at 38.55, resistance 38.94.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  2:48:59 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $41.86 +0.64% ... company saying it is "comfortable" with Q4 EPS and production views.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  2:38:43 PM
The OEX continues coiling at the bottom of its range. Depending on one's bias, it's possible to see that coiling process as a now-widened bear flag or perhaps as a bullish right triangle--flat top near 569.50, rising bottom along a series of higher lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  2:34:12 PM
QQQQ has dipped below 7200-tick SMA resistance gain, stalling the 30 minute cycle upphase and bringing QQQQ back to its 9:30AM levels. Unless 39.00 breaks, this will prove to have been an entirely corrective day.

 
 
  Jane Fox   1/5/2005,  2:32:38 PM
Linda I also heard a program on NPR (great minds listen to NPR? LOL) about the book, "United States of Europe." This fellow traveled from the Artic to the Mediterranean and never once encountered a border crossing and was able to use only one currency. The European Union is a welfare state and proud of it. Their medicine and schooling - including secondary schools - are all paid for. They give more aid to the world than the US and have more monetary reserves because they do not have a military to support. Many think the EU will be the next world leader.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  2:31:34 PM
Per Linda's 02:24:07 ... It would be interesting Linda to read that book. I wonder how many people are migrating into the Eurozone compared to how many migrate to the U.S. each year?

What currency did Saddam have in his pockets when they found the rat in the hole?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  2:24:07 PM
While I was out this morning doing my initial footwork toward getting a new laptop, I listened to an NPR program interviewing a man who wrote the new book, The United States of Europe. He proposes that Americans underestimate the impact of the eurozone uniting behind a common currency, with a common passport, a constitution, and other shared goals and new traditions. He talked particularly about the impact on our dollar. We will no longer have the only trusted currency in the world, and Russia and other countries have already begun to switch toward the euro and away from a dependency on the dollar. You've heard similar concerns voiced on these pages. He went on to dicuss something else heard on these pages: that interest rates might need to rise to entice investors into U.S. bonds. Disclaimer: I haven't read the book and have no idea if this guy's ideas have merit or not, are supported or not, or whether I'd agree or not. I'm merely reporting the content of the interview.

President Bush talks now about our support of tsunami survivors and the interviewee also addressed the reasons behind the initial scoffing at the U.S.'s contributions. Apparently Sweden, a much smaller country, committed much more on the first day than we did. Even Ireland committed more. That's why our initial commitment was viewed with such scorn.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  2:16:25 PM
The OEX tests first potential support on the 15-minute Keltner charts, the support that bulls would most like to see hold on a 15-minute closing basis. It looks as if the OEX might barely have squeaked by in the just-closed 15-minute session, producing a close slightly above that Keltner line at 568.45.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  2:10:49 PM
02:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  2:06:32 PM
Resistance at the five-minute 100/130-ema's holds the OEX back. Support has held earlier and resistance has held now, at least temporarily, and I don't see a clear direction as yet. Support is now thinning below the OEX on the Keltner charts. Those hoping to see a continued climb want to see continued 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 568.49.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  2:03:21 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  2:00:27 PM
SPY 118.98 +0.12% ... just off session high of 119.25 with DAILY Pivot at 119.27.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  1:59:58 PM
After failing at a nominally lower high for the day, QQQQ is now testing 38.80 from above. The short cycle oscillators are overbought and just starting to roll over. A move below 38.70 will confirm a new downphase, targeting 60 min channel support at 38.52 currently. More chop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  1:58:20 PM
HMO's, insurance and banks all extend above morning highs.

BIX.X 375.18 +0.18% ... yet to trade DAILY Pivot (375.92) and WEEKLY S2 (376.57) at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  1:52:37 PM
The OEX still tests the five-minute 100/130-ema's, currently being above the 100-ema and below the 130-ema, sandwiched between the two.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  1:47:42 PM
The OEX's advance stalls at the five-minute 100/130-ema's, at 569 and 569.56 respectively. This is also potential equal-top territory for the OEX for today's trading pattern. The OEX also faces a combination of 15-minute Keltner lines that stopped its advances yesterday morning. Shorter-term charts show Keltner support trying to gather under the OEX again, though, with that support down to 568.30. It looks possible for the OEX to thrust up toward 570-571 on those shorter-term charts, less likely on the 15-minute one. Mixed evidence, but it suggests the possibility that a supposed breakout could head up another point or so and then be stopped again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  1:39:26 PM
Done. Current updated intraday 100-tick QQQQ chart at this Link . 30 min channel resistance, still rising, is up to 38.94.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  1:38:59 PM
Continuation-form H&S's sometimes don't meet their downside targets, as I mentioned in my 12:41 post, and the OEX did not meet the downside target for its continuation-form H&S before it moved higher again. If this bounce holds, I'll have to change my opinion for today's trading pattern, won't I, but I expected some zooming around both to the upside and the downside. We haven't seen much downside yet. The OEX currently tests the five-minute 100/130-ema's and the outcome of that test may tell the tale.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  1:36:01 PM
The bad ticks printing here have scattered my intraday keltner bands. Resistance at the previous high to 39.00 is the next key line in the sand. Trying to edit the charts to remove those bad ticks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  1:33:00 PM
The SOX breaks free of converged Keltner resistance and heads toward the next level, at 409.35-411.04. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move up toward 412-414 and then retreat, though.

 
 
  Jane Fox   1/5/2005,  1:31:27 PM
Interesting comment from the WSJ: Stocks are high because of strong earnings, but roughly 40% of corporate earnings come from the financial sector. Those earnings have been aided by the low-rate environment.

Then in the same article I find this: Never in the course of human events (OK, the past couple of years) have so many predicted something so often for so long and been so wrong. But -- and you heard it here last -- interest rates are going up.

Scary isn’t it to think if interest rates start to rise that 40% of corporate earnings are in jeopardy - just from the financial sector.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  1:23:01 PM
Bearish day trade stop alert for the QQQQ at $38.80

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  1:22:28 PM
38.80 is next QQQQ resistance currently in the crosshairs. The 30 min cycle channel has now turned up, resistance at 38.80, while the 60 min channel is still down but flattening out. Resistance for the 60 min is also at 38.80. 7200-tick SMA support at 38.63 should provide support within the ongoing short cycle upphase. The whole day indicates corrective action on what should have been a bounce, and below 39.00 the outlook is bearish- just a matter of seeing how long this intraday correction lasts.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  1:14:07 PM
The SOX did begin a bounce up out of that bullish falling wedge, within a few minutes of my 12:56 post, but it's not getting far. It's had a couple of five-minute closes just above 405, but it's immediately turning down from that area and had tugged the resistance higher, too, when it moved higher. It hasn't really had a breakout above Keltner resistance. Not yet. Support still tries to firm.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  1:11:48 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  1:04:21 PM
The GSO has reached double-bottom territory on an intraday basis (yesterday's low and today's) and is attempting to bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  1:04:18 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  1:00:28 PM
QQQQ fell far enought to run the stops, with a spike to 38.47, and is currently testing declining 7200 tick SMA resistance at 39.61. 5 minutes' worth of prints above this level will stall the 30 min channel downphase, with 30 min channel resistance right overhead at 39.70.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  12:58:23 PM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $43.96 -0.54% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  12:57:51 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 373.85 -0.17% .... moving off session low of 372.93.

MONTHLY S1 is 372.73.

Similar trade to SPX.X at this point.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/5/2005,  12:56:32 PM
KMRT - down hard on rumors Spitzer is about to launch an investigation on them.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  12:56:28 PM
The shape of the SOX's decline may be one of the strongest arguments for a short-term bounce. That decline today is like an arrow pointing straight down into 400-404 support, an arrow in the shape of a bullish falling wedge. Keltner channels suggest there's still significant resistance just overhead, but if the SOX should burst through that 405-ish resistance on a five-minute closing basis, resistance thins above that. Unless we're going to see another cascading fall in the SOX, it may well be ready for a bounce attempt soon. This isn't a suggestion for a long play on semis, although one could be profitable, because I consider such to be a countertrend play now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  12:55:03 PM
Feb. Unleaded Gas (hu05g) $1.1700 -0.17% ... little-moved relative to heating oil and crude.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  12:53:18 PM
SPX.X 1,186.67 -0.11% ... session low so far has been 1,185.22.

MONTHLY S1 just under at 1,184.68.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  12:45:56 PM
The RLX has continued lower today, too, although it's currently off its low of the day. It's spent the day testing its 50-dma, just above round-number 450 support. Below this, next support for the RLX lies at the 447.92 confirmation level for its double-top formation on the daily chart. The RLX is at 452.12 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  12:42:02 PM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 618.26 -1.63% .... approaching DAILY S2 of 617.86.

QQQQ $38.51 -0.71% ... still well off DAILY S1/MONTHLY S2 correlation of $38.30-$38.31.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  12:41:41 PM
Maybe the start of that shadow to the downside for the OEX? A deeper study of the coiling pattern that developed while I was gone reveals a H&S formation on the five-minute chart with the neckline just broken. This is a continuation-form one and so not one I trust to necessarily reach its downside target and that downside target is not so far away, anyway. It's at about 564.75, but that's going to be deep enough, if approached, to create a downside shadow, too. (See my 12:29 and 9:21 posts.) The OEX is already trying to draw itself up ahead of a touch of yesterday's low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  12:37:31 PM
Volume has popped as support breaks on QQQQ. 38.55-.60 is new resistance as the 30 and 60 min channels roll back to the downside.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  12:34:35 PM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 751.59 -1% ... session low despite reversal lower in Treasury yields.

Suggests negative broader market tone, or defensive.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  12:29:55 PM
I return to see the that the OEX has been coiling beneath its five-minute 100/130-ema's. The daily candle is so far a small-bodied one with at least one long shadow--an upper one. Not a big surprise for me to see that candle. I wouldn't be surprised to see another shadow added, either, this one to the downside. However, while the coiling pattern suggests an eventual breakout, it doesn't go anywhere near suggesting which direction. The 15-minute chart suggests that support is stronger than resistance and that the direction will be up: the 60-minute suggests the opposite.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  12:26:18 PM
Day trade short alert for the QQQQ $38.63 -0.39% here, stop $38.80, target $38.31.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  12:15:10 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  12:05:35 PM
The volume drop Jim has noted is particularly pronounced on QQQQ here, and there are bullish divergences showing on the short cycle oscillators. It's not yet apparent that QQQQ is going to plunge directly from here, and it won't be until 38.50 fails for starters. The immediate range to watch for nearterm direction is 38.60-.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  12:05:26 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  11:59:06 AM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 621.98 -1.04% ... action here would still suggest to me that "tax gain" sellers aren't through.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  11:45:47 AM
Bonds have firmed up, with TNX now down 2 bps to 4.263%, testing 4.26% support. Note that this is occurring as QQQQ bounces again from 38.60- bonds and equities are rising together here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  11:37:23 AM
The 30 and 60 minute cycle channel have rolled over. Channel support now lines up at 38.50 QQQQ. A break above 38.80 will arrest the slide, but below that, the cycles appear to be resuming their southbound run.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  11:17:10 AM
Immunomedics (IMMU) $3.27 +6.51% ... company announces that it has received notice from FDA granting epratuzumab Fast Track Product designation for the treatment of patients with moderate to severe systemic lupus erythematosus.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  11:13:14 AM
More sideways chop as 38.60 has yet to break for QQQQ. This corrective action is taking place in the context of 30 and 60 min cycle upphases, and suggests that the next downphase will be a doozy. A break above 39.00 could change that, while a move below 38.50 should see a resumption of yesterday's decline. Bonds remain in light positive territory, TNX -.8 bps at 4.275%, gold in light negative, -.5 at 428.7.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  11:11:57 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  11:04:08 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  11:02:47 AM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,188.26 , QQQQ $38.66

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  10:46:25 AM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 53.72 -4.32% ... only sector in market watch that is changed more than +/- 1% at this point.

Sector lower after Delta Air Lines (DAL) $6.86 -6.15% slashes fares up to 50%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  10:44:42 AM
I have to be away for a couple of hours in the interest of better serving you, since it becomes apparent that I may need to be shopping for a laptop to augment my main computer, for those times when I'm traveling. My laptop decided to quit and even when working from home, I don't like to be without that backup. It's been needed more than once.

I ended yesterday expecting a choppy day today and I wouldn't be surprised if that's not exactly what we get, with strange moves one direction and another. Be protective of your accounts. I'll be back as soon as possible.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  10:44:26 AM
Another test of 38.60 support, QQQQ currently bouncing. 38.80 is now resistance, with the 30 and 60 min cycle upphases currently stalled. Below 38.50, the intraday bulls will be in trouble as the current bounce becomes a bear flag at the bottom of yesterday's decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  10:38:18 AM
The OEX is now testing the bottom support of that bear-flag-ish formation, I think. I'm not trying to be cute, but it's a rough formation. Did the OEX break out to the upside? Did it just widen it? Tough to tell, but I'm still thinking that it looks corrective and that a test of yesterday's low or even a move toward the 60-minute target down toward 562 is still possible. So is a slightly higher bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  10:37:51 AM
Big sell program underway

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  10:37:31 AM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,188.61 , QQQQ $38.63

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  10:32:54 AM
Sell Program Premium SPX 1,189.30 , QQQQ $38.75

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/5/2005,  10:30:29 AM
Crude oil -3.3 MB

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  10:29:14 AM
30 and 60 min channel resistance now line up at 39.00-39.05 QQQQ. The channels still have an upward bias, but it's weak and corrective so far within the ongoing daily cycle downphase. A move below 38.60 will stop those upphases, and below 38.50, the bulls will have dropped the ball very early in their intraday upphase.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  10:24:36 AM
The OEX moves up toward its five-minute 100/130-ema's, but the move still has a corrective look to it, to borrow a term of Keene's. It's not quite a bear flag, not quite a rising wedge, but it still has that measured back-and-forth-in-a-tight-pattern look that suggests it's part of a measured distribution pattern. We'll see, as the inventories numbers could change the entire shape, but since I'm expecting a choppy day that might produce moves both to the upside and downside, I'm abstaining from making too many pronouncements about likely direction today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  10:20:34 AM
Pulte Home (PHM) $61.59 +1.23% ...

DJUSHB 765.23 +0.78% .... U.S. Market Watch not correct for homebuilders.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  10:16:39 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  10:09:18 AM
A reminder that the OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 570.27 and 570.96, respectively.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/5/2005,  10:03:58 AM
SYMC guiding inline for 2006

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  10:03:44 AM
Bonds have just entered positive territory, TNX now -.4 bps at 4.279%. Look for support at our long-running 4.26% confluence level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  10:03:40 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  10:02:48 AM
Not much reaction to the ISM yet. The OEX did move back below the 50% retracement of yesterday's last decline, questioning whether that was really an upside break out of the bear flag or not.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/5/2005,  10:00:17 AM
ISM Non-Mfg = 63.1 , (est 61.0, last 61.3)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  9:57:45 AM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,189.94 , QQQQ $38.80

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  9:55:53 AM
A 3.5B 5-day repo has just been announced with no expiries today, for a net add in that amount from the Fed's open market desk.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  9:55:48 AM
VIX.X 13.86 -0.85% .... Daily Pivot Levels ... 13.62, 13.82, 14.13, 14.33, 14.64.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  9:53:43 AM
Keltner support firmed up beneath the OEX on the five- and seven-minute chart. As I was typing that first statement, the OEX began breaking above what had appeared to be a likely a bear flag, secure with that Keltner support firmed up below it. Someone is front-running the ISM number here. To pump and dump? Or to get in ahead of the crowd? We'll soon see. So far, the OEX isn't getting knocked back too much, but that 563.53 level is significant because it's a 50% retracement of the last decline yesterday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  9:52:54 AM
ISM data due in 8 minutes, est. 61.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  9:51:13 AM
Big buy program underway.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  9:50:00 AM
QQQQ continues higher, now breaking the morning high. 38.90 is first resistance, but the key level will be 39.00, current confluence and 60 min channel resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  9:49:15 AM
Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,190.38 , QQQQ $38.87

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  9:48:11 AM
The OEX continues moving within a formation that is likely a bear flag. It hasn't broken down below it. It hasn't risen far enough or rapidly enough to invalidate the formation, either.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  9:46:56 AM
The TRAN continues lower today, approaching its 50-dma. The TRAN's performance might be particularly important to watch today as crude inventories are released. I was listening to NPR's report this morning, balancing the likely buildup in inventories in the next quarter when the winter's demand slackens and before tourists gear up for travel in the summer against Saudi Arabia's announced trimming of its production today. The gist appeared to be that OPEC countries were scrambling to keep prices from going too low next quarter, but what happens if OPEC countries do like those higher prices and decide that global economies can bear them? Strange to have these matters affecting our economy in the hands of others outside our economy.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  9:41:22 AM
Both the 30 and 60 min cycle channels are showing upticks on the failure of QQQQ to make a new low this morning. Given the oversold 30 and 60 min cycle oscillator readings, the intraday bias shifts to the upside and stays there above 38.55. Bulls need to regain 39.00 to even suggest that the bounce will be anything more than corrective.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/5/2005,  9:39:33 AM
Genentech (DNA) $52.68 +1.77% ... stock was downgraded yesterday to "hold" from "buy" at Deutsche Bank. Today, UBS upgrades to "buy" from "neutral."

Stock looks pinned between $51.50 and $54.50 through January expiration. PnF chart bullish, with vertical count now established to $70. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  9:38:57 AM
The SOX is below yesterday's close, above yesterday's low. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dip down into the 400-404 zone and wouldn't be surprised to see a climb as high as 412-414, and wouldn't be surprised to see both happen, either, on this index.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  9:34:26 AM
Although the OEX opened just below the bear flag's support, it did generally hold within the flag's shape and is now rising within that flag. The five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 570.55 and 571.25, respectively, and might be expected to provide resistance if the OEX rises that far. The 567.85 range, now being tested and 568.50-ish range also might be resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  9:24:41 AM
Futures turn lower this morning, suggesting a test of yesterday's close or perhaps yesterday's low. As I noted in my 20:49 post last night, I think the OEX is vulnerable both to a test of the 561.80-ish level and to a bounce, but I'm not certain of the order in which those might occur. The OEX appeared to be rising in a bear flag formation and the order somewhat depended on whether the OEX kept climbing within that formation this morning or broke down immediately. I'm looking for some possible choppy action today with moves both directions being aborted, perhaps creating a long-legged, small-bodied candle of some sort on the daily chart. We'll see if internals give us a better outlook for a directional instead of choppy move, but we've got lots of information to potentially move the markets mid-morning today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  9:17:04 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity declined 10.6 percent to 605.7 in the week ended Dec. 31, after falling 1.7 percent in the MBA's prior week survey. The MBA's purchase index, a gauge of loan requests for home purchases, decreased 13.7 percent last week to 417.3, more than offsetting a 2.7 percent gain the previous week.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  9:00:08 AM
QQQQ is back to the low range from yesterday, with prints at 38.60 currently. The 30 min cycle oscillators were showing an oversold uptick yesterday at the close, and unless QQQQ plunges through the mid .50's with authority at the cash open, the greater likelihood will be for a 30 minute cycle upphase to begin building. I expect it to be entirely corrective, given the bearish daily cycle oscillators and support breaks. 30 min channel support is currenltly 38.60, 60 min support just below at 38.57.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/5/2005,  7:49:18 AM
Equities are lower across the board, ES trading a session low of 1189.75, NQ 1576.5, YM 10642 and QQQQ is -.1 to 38.68. Feb. gold is down 1.2 to 428, silver up .035 to 6.491, ten year notes -.046 to 111.359 and crude oil is -.425 to a session low of 43.475.

We await the 10AM release of ISM services for Dec., est. 61.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/5/2005,  7:10:09 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei lost 0.70% last night. Throughout Asia, semi-related stocks tended to perform poorly due to the slide in the SOX yesterday, but inflation and interest rate concerns also figured in the declines. Other Asian markets were mixed, but most European markets turn lower this morning. Across the globe, automakers have reacted to U.S. sales figures released yesterday, with most Japanese automakers closing higher but most European turning lower this morning. Our futures have steadied, but have not yet shown any signs of rebounding after yesterday's decline. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped lower Tuesday night. Climbing oil prices, declining U.S. markets, and inflation and interest rate concerns hit equities. The diving SOX hit semi-related stocks throughout Asia. The Fed minutes prompted the inflation concerns. Banking shares turned lower. The rest of the session, the Nikkei undulated near the opening level, closing down 80.23 points or 0.70%, at 11,437.52. Carmakers gained in early trading after reporting sales figures for last month and after the dollar gained against the yen, and most closed in positive territory. Toyota did not, closing down 1.2%.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.19%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.19%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.12%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 2.00%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.74%.

Most European markets trade in the red this morning. A warning from British retailer Next helped send U.K.'s stocks lower. Unlike their Japanese counterparts, European carmakers have mostly traded lower after U.S. sales figures were released yesterday. Royal Ahold still struggles with court decisions that make it more difficult to rid itself of some units, and the stock moved lower in early trading.

As of 7:07 EST, the FTSE 100 has lost 36 points or 0.74%, to trade at 4,811.00. The CAC 40 has lost 23.92 points or 0.62%, to trade at 3,839.38. The DAX had lost 33.27 points or 0.78%, to trade at 4,257.23.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/4/2005,  12:30:55 AM
3M (MMM) $81.73 ... announced today that it will donate $1.5 million to help with relief efforts to help Southern Asian countries devastated by the recent earthquake and tsunamis. The donation includes a $500,000 grant to match employee contributions. 3M also said it will donate $1 million in products needed by relief organizations.

In a separate note, the company confirmed that it will hold its Q4 conference call starting at 09:00 AM EST on January 18, 2005. Earnings scheduled to be released before the opening bell on Jan. 18. Consensus is for MMM to earn $0.90 per share versus year-ago $0.77 per share.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/4/2005,  10:58:50 PM
March-May 2004 MONTHLY Pivot Matrix at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/4/2005,  10:44:37 PM
12/27/04-projected next week pivot matrix at this Link

The 01/07/05 Close is tonight's close (01/04/05) and is used to envision possible WEEKLY Levels, current point and % change for this week.

The lower WEEKLY pivot matrix would represent what NEXT WEEK's pivot matrix would look like, if tonight's close were that found on Friday (I doubt it) and "assumes" this week's highs/lows already established.

I make note that for the week of 03/15/04-03/19/04, the equity indices followed in the pivot matrix trade up to, or near that week's Pivot, but then faltered.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/4/2005,  9:57:06 PM
03/08/2004-04/02/2004 .... WEEKLY Pivot Matrix at this Link and as much as I can fit horizontally on my screen.

Quick observations would be that after all equity-based indices did trade WEEKLY S2 on week of 03/08-03/12, it took 3 weeks to reclaim them and a WEEKLY R2.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/4/2005,  8:49:28 PM
Tuesday was a bad day on the markets, and the OEX was badly affected, too, dropping 5.56 points. By the end of the day, the OEX had violated the bottom support of the rising regression channel in which it had traveled for two months. Or did it? While the QCharts-drawn rising regression channel's support was clearly violated, a hand-drawn rising trendline off the December 1 high shows that the OEX paused at or just under the last month's support, anyway: Link

What happens next? The 60-minute Keltner chart shows the OEX vulnerable to 561.80, the location of the 50-dma on the daily chart and just above the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline. The OEX was attempting to bounce at Tuesday's close, but that bounce looked like a likely bear flag rising into resistance. Charts sometimes don't tell the whole story, but the story they're telling tonight for the OEX is continued vulnerability toward 561-563, perhaps after a continued bear-flag climb into resistance, with the possibility that tomorrow could present a choppy trading day in which neither bulls nor bears know what should occur next. Some sort of long-legged, small-bodied candle might not be surprising for tomorrow.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   1/4/2005,  8:34:33 PM
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