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  OI Technical Staff   1/11/200,  8:19:17 PM

Only 4 days left. Lock in your subscription rate NOW!: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  5:37:48 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/11/200,  4:44:40 PM
With UPS warning that package volumes were less than expected in December this would be economically negative. If Intel's guidance is just average or cautious this ballon could quickly deflate even further.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:43:52 PM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $16.15 -0.12% ... $16.62 in extended session. (Looks just like INTC in extended session, almost like computers managing things)

January "Max Pain" theory at $17.50 ($2.50 increments).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:37:52 PM
Adv. Micro (AMD) ... went out at $14.86 -26.17% ... $14.97 after Intel. (no help for SMH, but provided plenty of damage)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:33:50 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Day trade long in shares of Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) at the offer of $42.65, close out prior to market close at the bid of $42.55 ($-0.10, or -0.23%).

Swing trade NAKED call for the Dow Diamonds (DIA) and sold two (2) of the DIA Feb $104 calls (DIA-BZ) at the bid of $2.75. DIA was trading $105.51 at the time of profile. Targeting $104 into Iraq elections.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/11/200,  4:31:25 PM
Alert - UPS - Warning earnings well below estimates

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:19:39 PM
Semi HOLDRs (SMH) went out at $30.76 -2.10% .... $31.25 on INTC headline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:18:53 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) went out at $23.99 -2.44% .... $24.25 on INTC headline

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:15:59 PM
And they're off.... INTC $22.81

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/11/200,  4:15:12 PM
Alert - INTC earnings = +0.33, $9.6Bil rev,
Guiding margins down slightly.
CapEx above estimates for Q1
Guiding revenue to $8.8B - $9.4B for Q1,
consensus was $8.94B.
Q4 earnings est was +0.31, rev est +$9.42B,

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:07:45 PM
Sell Program Premium .... DIA $105.51 , SPY $118.19

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:06:32 PM
Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.50 , SPY $118.19.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:05:55 PM
Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) ... goes out at $30.76 -2.10% .... WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $30.67, $31.10, Piv= $31.54, $31.96, $32.41.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  4:04:22 PM
Intel (INTC) goes out at $22.54 -1.48% .... WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $21.52, $22.15, Piv = $22.97, $23.59, $24.41.

January "Max Pain" theory at $22.50 ($2.50 increments)

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  3:59:19 PM
After a brief runup on the INTC 1-min chart in the last hour, Intel longs are bailing ahead of the CC. I would consider this to be another sign pointing to a potentially disappoint CC. If the last two days of selling in INTC have been an orchestrated sandbagging campaign then it deserves an Oscar... we will find out soon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  3:56:21 PM
It will be touch-and-go as to whether the OEX ends the day above its 50-sma or not.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  3:54:02 PM
Unless the OEX pulls up soon and bounces hard, it will have negated the potential inverse H&S on its five-minute chart, displayed on the chart linked to my 15:21 post.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  3:53:35 PM
Bullish day trade close out alert ... for Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) at the bid of $42.55.

Got enough "silicon" in the MM profiles at this point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  3:52:35 PM
DIA 105.63 -0.53% ...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  3:52:01 PM
Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,183.48 , QQQQ $38.25

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  3:48:47 PM
The OEX's 30-minute chart shows small-bodied candles lined up along a Keltner line currently at 565.61, like birds perched on a telephone wire. They're not flying off anywhere just yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  3:41:27 PM
03:15 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  3:38:52 PM
The OEX has turned around to retest the right shoulder level for the inverse H&S depicted in my 15:21 post. Hasn't yet fallen beneath that right-shoulder level, but neither has it confirmed the inverse H&S.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  3:34:52 PM
Drilling down to the 1-min INTC chart for a hint of pre-CC sentiment... the pre-CC buyers are beginning to lose their nerve... Link
The 5-min chart shows steady selling over the last two days. I still want to watch the last 30 minutes of trading but if I had to guess at this point I would say expectations for the CC are not that bullish, however the last 30 minutes can be very revealing. We will see what happens in that period of time.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  3:21:12 PM
Important formation to watch on the OEX's five-minute chart, for either confirmation or rejection: Link A rejection would occur on a move below the right-shoulder level.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/11/200,  3:20:14 PM
It makes our network problems over the last week rather insignificant. Also shows you how quickly your life can be over. 30 seconds from driving down the road listing to tunes to being an organ donor. Kiss your wife, hug your kids, work less, enjoy life more.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  3:16:47 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  3:16:22 PM
Amazing, Jim. Puts our day in perspective.

 
 
  Jane Fox   1/11/200,  3:16:05 PM
My goodness Jim - a few minor cuts is unbelievable.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/11/200,  3:14:34 PM
My brother in law and friend since high school was driving home from work yesterday when a woman crossed the median and clipped his car causing him to lose control and flip twice at 60mph before crashing upside down into a concrete bridge abutment. He had to be cut our of the car. He was treated and released for a couple minor cuts. Thank God for seatbelts and airbags. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  3:08:02 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Benchmarked some 50-day SMA observations (SPX, OEX, BIX.X and XBD.X)

SIVB's intra-day low came right at its rising 50-day SMA.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  3:07:29 PM
In case anyone wants to listen in on the Intel Q4 Conference Call here's the URL... Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  3:06:55 PM
So far, the OEX turns down at first 60-minute Keltner resistance, at the Keltner line currently at 566.08. Sixty-minute Keltner support at 563.57 looks firmer than it did earlier, however. Neither the resistance nor the support looks strong enough to withstand a strong pre-Intel thrust either direction. From here on out, emotion might govern the trading patterns.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/11/200,  3:06:17 PM
ELN - Elan Corp LEAP breakout entry was just triggered at $28.50 was just triggered. The 2006 $30 LEAP Call WTB-AF is currently $5.30

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  2:58:43 PM
QQQQ is coming in for a retest of 38.20 support. That level is confluence as well as flattening 30 min channel support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  2:55:08 PM
The TRAN perhaps forms an inverse H&S at the bottom of its steep decline. It's at the right shoulder area now. The neckline would be at about 3682-3683. The upside target would be about 3735-3736, which would bring the index up for a test of the 30-sma at 3729.02. The TRAN's trading pattern has shown some relevance to the 30-sma. Of course, it has to make it through the 50-sma at 3671.06 before it can cross that neckline or rise toward the upside target, and it's done none of that yet. A fall below or to yesterday's low would negate the formation.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/11/200,  2:50:05 PM
Just last week analysts were saying they expected Intel to beat estimates based on a stronger than expected Q4 PC sales. After the AMD warning I doubt they are quite as positive today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  2:48:55 PM
Decent looking bidder for SIVB at this $42.60 area. See him/her on working level II.

Bond market closes in about 10-minutes, and SIVB bull would like to see buyer round out to the close. $43.50 would be nice.

RED #4 and WEEKLY S1 at $42.78 have capped afternoon comeback.

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/11/200,  2:45:35 PM
Earnings after the close
INTC est +0.31, rev est +$9.42B
CAMP est +0.08, rev est +$53.9M

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/11/200,  2:43:11 PM
Recently we have seen short covering ahead of Intel releases but with the AMD warning this morning and the negative HPQ news we may see more covering long positions tonight rather than covering shorts. Either way it is a tossup.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  2:40:44 PM
I think Marc Eckelberry's comment on the Futures side re: the market not tanking or rallying much ahead of Intel could very well be a strong influencing factor today. Intel is notorious for really being a market mover and nobody wants to get caught on the wrong side of a trade going into the release.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  2:36:54 PM
Crude oil closed higher by .375 at 45.70 on the Nymex.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  2:36:06 PM
Not yet Linda... maybe one of our readers has the answer. I suspect it is the 50sma but am really not sure.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  2:34:28 PM
Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 116.11 -0.37% ... fades a bit

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  2:33:57 PM
Mark, did you ever get an answer as to whether funds use the 50-sma or -ema? Just interested.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  2:32:41 PM
The OEX is pausing at the next Keltner resistance. So far, it looks like just that--a pause. One thing about broadening formations that makes them especially difficult to trade is that as they widen, price movements get increasingly volatile, zipping from one side of the formation to the other, breaking out minimally only to reverse and head back again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  2:32:05 PM
QQQ is pulling back from 39.45 and needs to break 38.29, followed by 38.20 to invalidate the bullish tilt to the 30 minute cycle channel. Once again, this has that op-ex feel to it, with QQQQ net unchanged from its opening levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  2:29:56 PM
Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $42.68 -1.49% ... may have one-too-many letters in the symbol at this point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  2:28:50 PM
OEX.XLink from earlier this morning.

Yep! BIX.X 372.77 +0.14% will be key.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  2:28:00 PM
SPX pauses at the 38.2% retrace off yesterday's 1195 HOD... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  2:18:38 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $24.25 -1.38% ....

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  2:17:36 PM
SPX is experiencing an impulsive looking spike to the upside but on the 30-min chart still hasn't even made it back to the middle Bollinger band and faces strong congestion resistance in the 1190 area. A lot of technical damage has been done in the last 7 trading days and I doubt it will be easily reversed. The longer-term trend remains down and I still believe SPX to be vulnerable to 1150 or lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  2:17:16 PM
Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 116.56 (unch) .... first among "tech" to show some muster.

WEEKLY Pivot 117.71

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  2:14:55 PM
3M (MMM) $84.92 +1.16% ... trying to lead a Dow comeback.

DIA $105.82 -0.36% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  2:11:21 PM
The OEX is back above the 50-sma, back within that rectangular trading range it established. That range is part of a larger H&S, the right shoulder of that formation. All morning, I've been noting that the former rectangular consolidation is now taking on a bit of a broadening shape. Broadening shapes are indicative of emotion-based trading and are more typical of market tops than of bottoms, so it's a bit unusual to find one after a drop. What it means, however, is that every breakout from that former rectangular formation is a trap, with the index then reversing. Currently, it looks as if it would require a break above 570.45 or so to break out of that formation to the topside, but be careful, as these are notoriously difficult to trade.

Bears who entered a bearish play on a rollover beneath 570.75 yesterday had ample opportunities to formulate plans about dealing with the test of the lower support and have hopefully put those plans into effect. Don't let a winning play turn into a losing one, hoping all the time that the index will turn around.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  2:09:34 PM
QQQQ is now up to combined 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 38.41. Unless price falls back almost immediately, however, the 30 min channel will continue rising toward the implied reverse h&s target of 38.53.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  2:07:37 PM
Bullish day trade long alert ... for Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $42.65 here, stop $42.45, target $43.40 by the close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  2:04:10 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  2:00:09 PM
Stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  1:59:30 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 372.23 (unch) ... back to test morning high.

OEX.X 565.51 -0.48% ...

QQQQ $38.30 -0.60%

DIA $105.66 -0.51%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  1:59:19 PM
A new short cycle upphase is underway for QQQQ, provided that support holds for any retest of 38.20.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  1:55:25 PM
SPX appears to be breaking out of a bull wedge on the 5-min chart and breaking the short-term downtrend line from yesterday at the same time, all from the edge of the cliff... Link
Once again the edge of the cliff proves to be a high odds long play, even when TRIN is printing 2.03 and even if only for a scalp.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  1:53:30 PM
01:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  1:45:10 PM
The OEX is bouncing right back above one version of the neckline of that large H&S visible on the 60-minute chart. This is not what bears want to see, as I warned earlier, but we're in stop-running time when any move is suspect. Let's look at what Keltner charts suggest: Both 15-minute and 60-minute chart show Keltner support trying to firm up near 563.80. On the 60-minute chart, it looks firm enough to prompt a bounce, not quite as firm on the 15-minute one. Next important Keltner resistance is near 565.60-566.65, with firmer resistance just above 568. Don't forget the 50-sma just ahead, though, as the OEX's ability or inability to get above that benchmark average may tell the tale as regard short-term strength or weakness.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  1:44:34 PM
QQQQ rolled over again beneath 38.30-.33 resistance, but bears will want to see at least a retest of the 38.07 low. A higher low on this pullback would look like a small intraday reverse head and shoulders pattern below a 38.30 neckline, projecting roughly to 38.53 QQQQ.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  1:44:03 PM
It is amazing to look at the different perspectives the ES and SPX 60-min charts present. ES is making a series of higher highs and SPX is making a series of lower lows. Looking at a shorter timeframe, the ES 5-min chart is showing a potential inverse H&S pattern and the SPX 5-min chart is rising to challenge the short-term downtrend line.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  1:26:21 PM
I believe the current spike we are seeing is the stop-running push... now we wait to see if it holds or fails.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  1:24:14 PM
All-time high alert ... for the HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,260.14 +0.19% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  1:24:12 PM
For some reason, over the last year OEX 562-563 has served as stronger S/R than 561.23, the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline. The OEX decline may slow as that level is approached. Bears don't want it to slow, as it's been doing. That's troubling, as a break through the neckline of a H&S that took a month to build should see an acceleration in declines and not a slowing. That presents the specter of a bear trap having been perpetrated. Of course, I mentioned earlier this morning that it's difficult to ascertain the exact neckline since there's a ragged series of candle shadows over the last week. It could be that the actual neckline break was closer to 566, and that this morning's acceleration in declines came on that break.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  1:23:52 PM
Nymex crude is holding up, currently +.61% at 45.60. QQQQ is breaking back above 38.20, taking another run at 38.30-.33. That level now lines up with the 30 min cycle channel as well. Another 10 minutes above 38.20 and the channel should begin to flatten from its steep downward tilt.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  1:20:16 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

NH/NL indications have the inchworm slipping lower again today.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  1:20:11 PM
Open question... does anyone know if funds use the 50sma or 50ema as a buy/sell trigger? I know they use the 50 but I don't know if it is the sma or ema
SPX 50sma = 1185
SPX 50ema = 1181

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  1:13:57 PM
Stepping away for a few minutes...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  1:09:30 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

OEX trades MONTHLY S1

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  1:08:20 PM
Here's the 60-minute OEX chart from this morning, depicting the H&S, with this morning's annotations still on the chart: Link If there's no quick (well, quick as it relates to a 60-minute chart, so within a couple of hours, perhaps) spring back above that neckline, then the potential downside target set is about 552.50. A spring back above that neckline will make the move look like a bear trap.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  1:02:46 PM
SPX just made a minor new LOD @ 1181.81 but until it breaks the 1182 triple bottom convincingly the jury is still out. Even then we need to break 1180 IMO to trigger any real selling. Having said that, we ARE close and bulls must be getting more nervous by the minute. Anyone who went long anytime today is underwater. The stop-running push should be interesting... oops! Dropping quickly as I type. Watch SPX 1180 for the next support area.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  1:01:44 PM
That OEX 15-minute Keltner support was not successful in trying to flatten and firm. I wasn't sure that it would be, as the effort looked iffy. The OEX still slides lower along that "support," as the support keeps turning lower, too. Keltner support has not been violated yet on that chart, so we can't really use that chart, anyway to set a new downside target. It would be 562 if that support had been violated. What has been violated is the neckline of the big H&S on the 60-minute chart. If the violation is going to hold, we should see losses accelerate now. Bears don't want to see a quick pause and immediate bounce back above the 564-ish neckline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  12:59:49 PM
Look for QQQQ 38.20 to act as new light resistance below the heavier 38.30-.33 line. We now have a synchronous 30 and 60 min cycle downphase, channel support 38.08.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  12:56:54 PM
NP Linda... I'll send you an invoice (grin)

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  12:55:38 PM
TRIN is currently 1.84... it's hard to put a positive spin on that number. Granted, it can change quickly but it's been high all day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:52:55 PM
Thanks, Mark, for the link in your 12:40 post. My MM hadn't updated and I didn't realize that it hadn't until I posted myself. I knew that Snow had been speaking to Reuters (see my 7:03 post) and anticipated that there were would be slide in the dollar today, but I was surprised at the magnitude of the slide against the yen versus the euro. That article you sent also included information about Germany's ZEW Index, important information that had not been included in my research materials this morning when researching European markets. Thanks again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  12:52:01 PM
Session high for ten year notes here, TNX -3.4 bps at 4.244%, now below 4.26% confluence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:47:12 PM
Slip-sliding away . . . The OEX hasn't violated the next 15-minute Keltner support. It just keeps sliding down it as support lines turn lower. Those support lines are trying to flatten and provide real support now, though. Not sure if the support is strong enough, but there's a visible attempt to firm. If it does, I'd look for resistance again near 566.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  12:44:56 PM
QQQQ failed below 38.30-.33 resistance (former support), and now appears to be contemplating the view at the edge of 38.20 support as the 30 min and 60 min cycle channels begin to edge lower. 30 min support has declined to 38.10. 37.90 is next confluence support on the daily chart.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  12:40:43 PM
I have an idea about Secretary Snow Linda... I wonder how many people even listen to him anymore. He's all sizzle and no steak... Link
The devaluation of the dollar is in direct proportion to the devaluation of Sec. Snow's own word.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:40:09 PM
Benchmark .... DIA $105.51 , OEX 564.79, QQQQ $38.27, VIX.X 13.26

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:34:59 PM
The OEX skates lower along the sinking-lower Keltner support on the 15-minute chart. That support is now at 564.30-564.42. Bears want to see a 15-minute close below those Keltner lines to perhaps get a bigger drop started, perhaps at least to 562.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:34:00 PM
Treasuries find strong buying ... 5-year down 1.6 bp, 30-year down 3.7 bp.

Cruve flattens and begins to feel like a python around an equity bull's neck.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  12:31:44 PM
SPX is only .14 points from LOD... if there is going to be a bounce or failure it should happen right about here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:31:11 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $26.08 -1.36% ... looks to challenge $26.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:30:20 PM
I'm trying to figure out the implications of a move I've been watching in the currency markets. During this last 30-minute decline in our equities or shortly preceding it, the dollar dove against the yen. There was not a move of similar magnitude against the euro, though. If the Japanese government were intervening, the dollar/yen move would likely have been in the opposite direction, so I'm stumped. Has Snow been saying something again? Any ideas, Jonathan or anyone else, about what could be happening and how it might affect our equities?

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  12:29:12 PM
Here comes SPX 1182 again... triple bottom or further sign of weakness? I frame that as a question because I really don't know. I am leaning toward a breakdown but balancing that with the edge of the cliff theory. Whatever happens today I still think SPX looks like it is vulnerable to 1150 or possibly even a test of the 200sma, currently sitting at 1131. That's thinking way ahead, although it could happen very quickly if the bottom drops out.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:26:31 PM
Sell Program Premiums three (3) so far today. Last one came about 20-minutes ago.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:24:55 PM
The OEX pauses at the equal-low level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:23:47 PM
Mark, on a second look, the OEX's bear flag had flattened a little and could also have been termed a rising wedge. (See Mark's 12:13 post.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  12:23:39 PM
I stepped away just long enough to miss the rectangle break and the initial test of 38.20 QQQQ support. 38.30-.33 should now act as upside resistance after the failure of what proved to be a pathetic short cycle upphase. The 30 min cycle channel needs to dip lower than its current 38.25 if this drop is to gather momentum- but below 38.30, the intraday bias has moved back to bearish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:21:18 PM
This morning, we saw the expected rise when the OEX hit the neckline of the big H&S on the 60-minute chart. Will it bounce again from the test taking place as I type? The VIX rose again, although not near the day's high, TRIN rose, and the advdec line sort of rolled down although it has not violated the LOD. I see some potential weakening again, but nothing that is definitive yet. The OEX is below the 50-sma, at 564-ish neckline for its big H&S on the 60-minute chart, so we just have to wait to see what happens next. From this point on, I kind of think it's going to be fear of INTC or optimism about INTC that drives trading patterns to some degree, and that's emotion-based trading that's not amenable to technical analysis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:20:08 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $24.27 -1.30% ... just saw a couple of pretty good size blocks get traded at this level.

Most likely at the bid as QQQQ takes out the lows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:17:35 PM
VIX.X 13.22 -0.07% .... with DIA $105.56 (profile benchmark was $105.51, and the DIA-BZ bid $2.55 now.

VIX.X was higher at time of sell naked call profile.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:15:09 PM
The advdec line breaks through its rising trendline off the LOD.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:15:04 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  12:13:36 PM
Linda I am watching a similar pattern on SPX that looks more like an ascending triangle. Whatever it is, SPX has broken out of the bottom of it... Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:13:25 PM
The OEX is back below the 50-sma again. Couldn't hold above it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:09:49 PM
The OEX moves back toward a retest of the 50-sma, at 564.93, with the OEX at 565.16 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:06:59 PM
If that was a bear flag the OEX had formed when climbing off the day's low, it's now broken below it. It has not yet fallen to a new LOD, confirming that break, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:06:51 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Oil moving higher

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:02:08 PM
Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 146.15 -1.44% ... session low and breaking below its rising 50-day SMA (146.88).

I thought bullish implications back in August when above, so more bearish here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  12:01:34 PM
The OEX possibly attempts another three-minute H&S, with a right-shoulder still to be formed by a rise up to just below 566 or so and a rounding over from there. Watching whether this formation completes and the confirms gives us some feedback as to whether bulls or bears still hold the reins.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  11:58:30 AM
SPX is back above the 50sma again, barely, but at least it has picked itself up off the floor. Volume is light so far but TRIN is improving. They have used every little rally since the January 3rd top to sell into and I am wondering if this will be more of the same or if we have now put in a short-term bottom at 1182. I believe the market is still running more on sentiment than technicals and that is always dangerous. Today is a very tough day to trade unless you were brave enough to buy at the edge of the cliff, SPX 1182, and can now set your stop to break even. SPX is stalling at the 38.2% fib retrace of the drop from yesterday's close. A minimal retracement of the most recent decline is not encouraging to bulls when you consider all the declines that we have experienced since January 3rd. It is also interesting that this year's high came on the first trading day of the year and it has been all downhill since. I believe that is the most important factor affecting market sentiment. This is normally a period when money is supposed to be pouring into the market as the market rallies with the influx of new cash. This is not happening yet and I am beginning to wonder if the trend of moving the "January effect" further and further back has set a new record this year, with the January effect starting in early December.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  11:54:54 AM
All about Intel? QQQQ $38.40 -0.33% ... session low a penny above MONTHLY S2.

SOX.X 397.17 -2.23% ... session low just above MONTHLY S2 (394.45)

OEX 565.64 -0.46% ... session low just fractions above its MONTHLY S1.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  11:54:31 AM
Session high for gold here at 435.50 on light volume of 454 contracts so far today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  11:51:50 AM
The SOX remains below 400. The TRAN, another indicator index often watched, has been rising off its low, but remains below the open and the 50-sma, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  11:51:14 AM
VIX.X 13.22 -0.07% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  11:49:00 AM
QQQQ is hanging at 38.44, TNX hanging at 4.267%. My feed is still online, but I made sure just in case a moment ago.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  11:46:56 AM
Adobe Systems (ADBE) $58.89 +0.10% ... bids green.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  11:42:44 AM
The VIX fell through the neckline of its three-minute H&S formation: the OEX did not. For now, an equity bounce gets the nod. However, the OEX's pattern may be resolving into a bear flag rising into resistance. The 15-minute Keltner chart shows it facing first resistance now, at a Keltner line currently at 565.95, so bulls first want to see a 15-minute close above that line. Stronger resistance shows up near 567.18-567.40 and then again a bit higher. Bears most want to see a rollover beneath 567.40, with that level also representing a 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's high and also representing the violated rising trendline off the 1/7 low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  11:41:39 AM
3M (MMM) $84.68 +0.88% Link ... percentage gainer for Dow Indu, where breadth is negative at 25 to 5. Standard & Poors Equity Research raised price target to $86 from $80 on thoughts 3M experiencing broad-based strength across many of its markets.

Relative strength chart did give a "buy signal" versus the INDU yesterday, and has MMM looking to regain some favor. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  11:40:38 AM
Session high for silver here at 6.672, +3.41% for the day. Euro and CAD futures remain steady, however, holding at their earlier levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  11:36:55 AM
11:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  11:34:03 AM
Volume is light so far, with my tick chart hanging. The short cycle upphase is still in the early-going, but it's been entirely corrective so far.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  11:21:04 AM
Yet more extension to this 20 cent rectangle between 38.30 and 38.50 QQQQ. Bonds have strengthened slightly, with TNX -1.1 bps at 4.267% and gold has weakened slightly, currently up 2.7 at 422.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  11:20:03 AM
Stepping away for a few minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  11:12:11 AM
The NWX, the Networking Index, declines today. The 200-sma and -ema, 100-ema and 200-week sma are all clumped above the NWX's recent consolidation zone, with the resistance near 235-237.25 looking massive. Late last week, the NWX confirmed a H&S. It now has a downside target near 228.33-231.38, depending on whether candle shadows were included in the calculation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  11:10:12 AM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 51.19 +0.01% ... bids green

$HUI.X +0.63% , DJUSHB +0.32%, XNG.X +0.01% only other gainers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  11:05:05 AM
11:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  11:01:39 AM
QQQQ's coming in for another test of 38.50 resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  11:00:50 AM
There's a H&S on the VIX's chart, too, neckline at about 13.27 with the VIX at 13.28 as I type. Might be interesting to see how this plays out. As I type, the VIX appears to be attempting to reject the formation, jumping up to 13.37 before this post could be completed. It hasn't rejected it yet, as it's still at appropriate right-shoulder height.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  10:57:17 AM
Drilling down to the SPX 1-min chart there is a shallow uptrend line since LOD that currently sits at 1183.25 and rising slowly. I would watch this number for the first signs of weakness, then the 1182 LOD double bottom, then 1180 as last ditch support. Below 1180 we could see acceleration to the downside. Also keep in mind this is the edge of a large cliff. I hate to keep harping on that point but past history tells us it is a high odds long play. Having said that, once in a while we do drop off the cliff (we have dropped off several recently) so if it fails things could get very ugly. Bulls would like to see SPX close above the 50sma @ 1185.07 but that seems like a tall order right now... well, maybe I should qualify that. 1185 is only 1 point above so maybe it isn't such a tall order but TRIN and a host of other indicators need to turn around or the market will advance with difficulty.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  10:55:16 AM
The 30 min min cycles has steadied into a directionless sideways drift, as has the short cycle following its upturn on the initial break past 38.44 to 38.50 resistance. A QQQQ buy program has just hit, but price remains firmly within the morning's range. This feels like an op-ex week so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:54:41 AM
There's a miniature continuation-form H&S on the OEX's three-minute chart. The neckline is perhaps at about 564.90, although the location is debatable. That's just below the 50-sma, so has significance from a different viewpoint. A move above 566 would negate the formation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  10:46:02 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 565.23 -0.53% Link ... session low has been 564.36 and still refuses to trade its MONTHLY S1 (564.06).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:44:31 AM
The OEX is trying to regain its footings by standing on sinking sands. The 15-minute Keltner support turns lower while the OEX tries to spring higher from that support. The support is from 564.62-564.88.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  10:44:03 AM
DR Horton (DHI) $39.18 +0.66% ... largest homebuilder in U.S. said Q1 2005 sales rose 31% to $2.66 billion. Sold 9,901 homes, compared to $2.03 billion, or 8,234 homes in the same period last year.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  10:43:15 AM
SPX trying to make a double bottom @ 1182... that has become the new line in the sand.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:35:45 AM
The TRAN remains below its 50-sma, but within yesterday's range. Not much to be determined there that will guide us as to market direction today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  10:35:16 AM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:33:27 AM
The SOX turns down below 400 again, at 397.83 as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  10:32:53 AM
SPX rises to test the 50sma (1185.07) from below, currently printing 1184.73. We are about to find out if bulls can hold the line or if the funds are going to just let the wheels fall off... they are getting wobbly as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  10:29:28 AM
SpectraLink (SLNK) $16.10 +18.2% ... outside of AMD, this Boulder, CO-base company ranks among the most inconsistent stocks regarding quarterly earnings, guidance, etc.

SLNK warning that it now expects to report revenues of $27.5 million, and earnings of $0.20 per share as demand for its telephony products remains strong, with gross margins expected to be about 63%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  10:29:21 AM
Here's the short cycle upphase now, with volume rising along with price for QQQQ. 38.40-.44 should act as support, with next confluence at 38.55 and channel resistance lined up at 38.60. If QQQQ can get above 38.50 for 10 minutes, the 30 min channel will begin to rise.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:25:39 AM
The SOX retests 400, from underneath, being at 399.45 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:25:03 AM
For reference, the OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 567.79 and 567.86, respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:24:00 AM
Several Keltner charts, up to the 15-minute chart, show resistance thinning, allowing the OEX to rise. First resistance is near 566.70, near the trendline off the 1/7 low, with firmer resistance perhaps from 567.84-568.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:22:09 AM
The OEX again tests its 50-sma, again inching back above it . . . stronger push now as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:19:41 AM
The OEX did close the last 15-minute period beneath the Keltner line that was necessary to keep open the possibility of a decline toward 562.42, but just barely. I'm not really sure that I'd consider it tugging free of that potential support just yet, although technically, the OEX is just below that support. We should see soon, as the OEX declines again. The problem is that there's weak 60-minute support just below, at 563.97 currently. If you're still in a bearish play from a rollover near the top of the recent trading range, you've likely chosen the "follow the OEX lower with stops" route, and need to continue to do so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  10:19:23 AM
VIX.X 13.53 +2.26% .... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.46, 12.89, Piv=13.36, 13.79, 14.26.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  10:17:41 AM
Here's a H&S pattern on the SPX 60-min chart that bulls do not want to confirm... Link
Neckline is just above 1181 and downside target is SPX 1143. You can bet there are a lot of very concerned bulls right now. Watch the SPX 1180 area carefully today. If it gives way not only will the H&S pattern confirm but also the 50sma will be breached by more than 5 points.
Having said that keep in mind this is a very important edge of the cliff and could be a good long play. Personally I don't think this level will hold. It may not give way today but I believe it will eventually fail sending SPX to 1150 or lower, and by eventually I mean sooner rather than later.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  10:17:41 AM
QQQQ is all set for its short cycle upphase, but failed at the 38.44 resistance line. Look for a directional move on a break of either 38.30 below or 38.44 above. Confirmation will come on a break of 38.55 above / 38.20 below.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  10:15:26 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:10:59 AM
If the OEX should close the current 15-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 565.19, the 15-minute chart suggests a move down to 562.44. The 60-minute chart gives slightly differing information, though, suggesting that there's support, albeit perhaps weak support, currently at 563.97. Those in bearish positions should have put their plans into effect as the bottom of the OEX's recent trading range, the 50-sma, and the neckline of that big H&S were approached. Some would have preferred to take partial or full profits, standing aside and watching the expected volatility as the OEX decided whether it was going to confirm that big formation or not, hoping they could get back in if the OEX did push below the neckline. Others might have chosen to set stops at breakeven points and just wait out the volatility. Others might have different plans, perhaps staying in but hedging by buying calls on a stronger index, if one can be found. As I said earlier, there's no one right or wrong answer.

As I type, the 50-sma is being retested. Bears of course want to see the OEX roll down from this test.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  10:06:20 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  10:03:52 AM
Coming in for a test of the lows here for QQQQ. Below 38.30, 38.20 is channel support while a bounce from or above 38.30 should kick off a new short cycle upphase on a break above 38.44.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:02:48 AM
The OEX has slipped below the 50-sma.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  10:01:37 AM
This is hardly an inspiring bounce but so far the 50sma is holding... unless bulls step in pretty quick the 50sma could fail, triggering a flood of sell orders. Very critical support is being tested here and right now it looks like it just may fail.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  9:59:24 AM
3M (MMM) $84.13 +0.22% ....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  9:58:23 AM
There are positive divergences in the short cycle oscillators, with the 30 min cycle channel twitching upward from a 38.20 channel low. A failure to break 38.30 on the next dip, if it occurs, should result in a new short cycle upphase. Next resistance is 38.50 to the upside.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  9:57:13 AM
The fed's open market desk has announced a 4.75B overnight repo against 7.25B expiring- net drain, 2.5B for the day.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   1/11/200,  9:55:34 AM
$SOX; appears to be heading for its 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level (390.50). Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) said fourth-quarter revenue would fall short of consensus expectations because of what the company called a challenging environment. European chipmaker STMicro (STM)also stated that gross margins were being pressured by the weak dollar.

Chart from 1/6; 2:04 MM post- Link

Today's SOX chart- Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  9:53:20 AM
The OEX tests the 50-sma at 564.93.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  9:52:34 AM
Friday's LOD for SPX was 1182.11, today's LOD so far is 1182.90 and current print is 1183.42. Bulls need to hold the line here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  9:50:54 AM
Do-or-die time for the OEX's big H&S on the 60-minute chart: Link I wouldn't be surprised to see a reflexive bounce here. Bears don't want to see it go far before rolling down again; bulls want to see a move above the right-shoulder level. I warned this morning and yesterday to make plans ahead of time how to handle this level if in bearish positions, so now is the time to put those plans, whatever they were, into effect.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  9:48:10 AM
Swing trade sell naked call alert .... Selling two (2) of the Dow Diamonds DIA Feb. $104 calls (DIA-BZ) at the bid of $2.75. Will follow with a stop at $3.75 to begin (approx. $107.75 for the DIA) and target $104.

DIA $105.51 -0.65% here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  9:46:42 AM
The TRAN remains within its most recent consolidation band, but turns down below its 50-sma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  9:46:02 AM
Unlike the SOX, the GHA still attempts to cling to its 50-sma, with the GHA at 303.13 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  9:45:10 AM
The SOX has broken below its recent consolidation band and below 400, and is at 397.45 as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  9:44:45 AM
The short-term downtrend off Friday's LOD has already been broken on the SPX cash index but ES is trying to hold the same downtrend line, it is being challenged as I type.

 
 
  Mark Davis   1/11/200,  9:41:35 AM
SPX drops to challenge the 50sma (1185.09)... Is this another edge of the cliff long play or will it drop off? History says it is a high odds long play but who knows how far it will go even if it bounces? Recent market psychology is getting more negative by the day as the January effect fails to appear. If 1185 breaks it could get ugly... but that is still a big "if".

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  9:40:46 AM
I've mentioned a big H&S on the OEX's 60-minute chart. So where's the neckline for that formation? One version of the neckline would be at 564. Another best-fit version would be nearer 564.68, just below the current level of the 50-sma. Still another version is higher. The problem is that there are a lot of ragged edges to that neckline during the current consolidation period--a lot of candle shadows that spike down to various levels--so that the lowest version does not cut off any candle shadows, the middle one seems a best fit, cutting off only a few, etc. One version, cutting off most candle shadows and a couple of aberrant candle bodies, is even being tested now, at 566.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  9:38:07 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $16.85 -16% ... sharply lower for a third-straight session after company says SEC inquiries may not be resolved quickly. Added that it could see delays in orders during first half of 2005 as agencies test and evaluate competitors products.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  9:37:36 AM
Session high for QQQQ at 38.40, trying for a gap fill now. 30 min channel support is down to 38.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  9:34:25 AM
Gold and foreign currencies are up, with Feb. gold futures +3.3 at 423, March euros +.56% at 1.3172 and March CAD +.46% at .8222.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  9:33:03 AM
Bonds are extending yesterday's positive drift, with TNX currently down .7 bps at 4.271%. We're still waiting for a break of the 4.26%-4.295% range.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  9:32:07 AM
QQQQ has bounced a few cents off its earlier lows, but remains just above lower 30 min channel support. The oscillators continue to point south, but the pre-market dip got slightly ahead of the broader channel- that should result in some kind of bounce or consolidation, such as we're seeing so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  9:32:01 AM
The OEX opens and heads down toward 60-minute Keltner support, between 564.28 and 565.40 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  9:26:27 AM
Sector Bullish % status changes ... recent sector bullish % changes from Dorsey/Wright and associates have the Aerospace/Airline reversing lower to "bear alert" status at 66%. Electronics reversing back lower to "bear confirmed" status at 54%, Protection/Safety Equip reversing lower to "bear alert" at 68%, and Semiconductors reversing lower to "bull correction" at 36%.

Sector Bell Curve from 12/31/2004 to 01/10/2005 at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  9:19:02 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  9:01:49 AM
Futures are lower this morning. If cash markets open in accordance with futures action, the OEX is likely to open nearer the bottom of its roughly rectangular four-point trading range than the top. Those who might have entered bearish positions yesterday on a rollover from the top of that range or under 60-minute Keltner resistance near 570.75 will then have a decision to make. Should profits be taken automatically on thoughts the OEX might bounce again from the bottom of the range? Should partial profits be taken, leaving a partial position open (with a breakeven stop) in case the OEX breaks through that range to the bottom? Should stops just be snugged down? There's no one right or wrong answer that covers all accounts and position sizes. The most conservative traders should probably take full or partial profits unless the OEX crashes immediately and strongly through the bottom of the range, and wait to see what happens next, hoping they can re-enter if the OEX does break through to the bottom.

The 60-minute Keltner channels show possible support between 564.42 and 565.71, with the 50-dma at 564.99 coming inside that range, corroborating its importance. I think we should expect at least a tepid bounce from that level, but ahead of the cash open and a look at internals, it's impossible to predict how high that bounce might go. Emotion-based trading might prevail today ahead of Intel's after-the-close earnings, and trading within a consolidation range produces mixed-up indicators that don't give many clues as to direction. Last night, Asian semi-related companies tended to gain ahead of Intel's earnings; this morning, European ones tend to drop, so even global responses are mixed. That's at least partially due to Europe's STMicroelectronic's warning.

Sometimes cash markets do not open in accordance with pre-market trading, so the possibility that the OEX might open and climb immediately must be examined. Sixty-minute Keltner resistance still looks firm near and just under 570.75, with perhaps lighter Keltner resistance at 568.22 and 569.61. These numbers are all on a 60-minute closing basis.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  8:54:28 AM
Session lows here for ES and YM futures, with QQQ down .21 at 38.32 and testing lower declining 30 min cycle channel support. If this gap lower doesn't reverse in the first minutes of the cash session after 9:30, then we'll be looking at a strong downside trending move. The greater likelihood is for some kind of bounce or sideways consolidation, given the lower Keltner breach.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/11/200,  7:25:28 AM
Equities are lower, with ES trading 1189. NQ 1563.5, YM 10603 ane QQQQ -.17 to 38.36. Gold is up 3.10 to 422.8, silver +.116 to 6.568, ten year notes +.046 to 111.4375 and crude oil up .025 to 45.35.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  7:03:23 AM
Good morning. Treasury Secretary Snow was interviewed on Reuters Television and said that he believes that market forces should govern exchange rates. The dollar did not crater on this seeming return to a laissez faire attitude after last week's more supportive statements, but did ease against the yen and euro. Building on strength among automakers and techs ahead of Intel's report, the Nikkei closed at a six-month high. Other Asian markets were mixed, with more closing higher than lower. European markets show the opposite effect, with most turning lower as overnight news weighs on chip-related stocks. Our futures eased at the European open. As of 6:21 EST, gold was up $3.00, and crude, up $0.19. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

In its first trading day this week, the Nikkei opened above 11,500, based above that level through the morning and early afternoon session, and then climbed higher. It closed up 106.75 points or 0.93%, at 11,539.99, a six-month closing high. Gains in automakers led equities to higher levels in early trading. Toyota Motor Corp and Nissan Motor Co. both helped, with Toyota noting record European sales and Nissan forecasting record profit for the year. Mitsubishi Motors closed higher by 4.7% after an unverified report that it would supply vehicles to Nissan Motor and Peugeot. Small-caps gained. In early trading, semi-related stocks rose ahead of Intel's earnings. Tokyo Electron closed higher by 2.2%. NEC Electronics posted an even-more impressive 3.7% gain despite Friday's revelation that 14% slower sales sent the last quarter's net profit 98.9% lower than the previous quarter's. Banks mostly traded higher.

Other Asian markets were mixed, with more gaining than losing. The Taiwan Weighted gained 32.81%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.16%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.12%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.16%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.40%.

Most European markets turn lower after warnings from STMicroelectronics and AMD sent European chip-related stocks lower. STM blamed the falling dollar, pricing pressures, and other factors. Smith Barney upgraded ASML, mitigating its losses as compared to other chip-related stocks. Also in the tech arena, Nokia lost ground, dropping after it announced plans to reduce R&D expenditures, including cutting jobs. Banks were in the news. ABN Amro's CEO derided rumors that the company will be acquired by Royal Bank of Scotland, sending ABN Amro's stock lower. Merrill Lynch raised HVB's rating to a buy rating. Also receiving an upgrade was insurer Swiss Re, to a buy rating from Deutsche Bank. The stock gained in early trading. Also gaining was Sanofi-Aventis after the European Commission approved two uses for its breast cancer drug.

In the U.K., the British Retail Consortium released figures showing that December's like-for-like sales fell 0.4% from the year-ago level. Total sales rose 2.5% from the previous year's level. Miner Rio Tinto was upgraded by JP Morgan. Cairn Energy announced a new gas discovery in India. Both stocks traded higher.

As of 6:21 EST, the FTSE 100 had lost 16.60 points or 0.34%, to trade at 4,824.10. The CAC 40 had lost 22.99 points or 0.59%, to trade at 3,854.83. The DAX had declined 39.84 points or 0.92%, to trade at 4,267.53.

 
 
  Tab Gilles   1/10/200,  1:23:38 AM
$SPX, $VIX...a 1 point drop over the last few days for the $VIX. Yet, very little movement by the $SPX? Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   1/10/200,  9:22:09 PM
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