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  OI Technical Staff   1/12/200,  7:42:37 PM

Only 3 days left. Lock in your subscription rate NOW!: Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  6:56:57 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Mark Davis   1/12/200,  6:18:20 PM
I was away from the Monitor for a lunch appointment but it looks like the little inverse H&S pattern on ES that I showed earlier as a potential formation did confirm. Upside target is 1194... Link
... and judging from the size of the 5-min candle as it sliced through the neckline I would say there were a few other traders watching the pattern also.
Tomorrow is another day... see you then

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  5:50:20 PM
MDC earnings = +3.17, (est +$2.82, rev est +1.26B), Highest year-end backlog ever with 6,505 homes valued at $1.92B. Anticipates record revenues, closings and income in 2005.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  5:36:30 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  5:31:25 PM
Taser Intl (TASR) Going to suggest any shorts from earlier post look to close out here at $16.60 (I am). I've got to get started on the Wrap.

Some decent action in tonights extended session though.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  5:27:42 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $16.50 with Cincinnati now playing both sides of things.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  5:25:02 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $26.03 -0.45% ... marked lower at $25.88 after FDA warns company that television and print advertisements for its painkillers Celebrex and Bextra mislead consumers.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  5:09:42 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $16.65 ... offer builds in Cincinnati.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  5:07:46 PM
eBay (EBAY) $107.25 +2.29% .... extends late session rally from $104 on reports it will raise prices from some of its auctions.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  5:06:30 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $24.49 +2.08% ... ticks softly higher at $24.73.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  5:04:23 PM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $17.01 +20.63% .... gets some action on current CNBC interview that company may have issued stock options to police officers testing their equipment. Slips to $16.91.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  4:55:46 PM
Bulish day trade long alert for the QQQQ $38.67 here, stop $38.48, target $38.90.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  4:52:34 PM
Apple Computer (AAPL) $65.46 +1.39% ... released for trade and surging to $73.33.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  4:49:09 PM
Apple Computer (AAPL) $65.46 +1.39% ... remains halted

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  4:47:01 PM
IPOD related stocks are up sharply after the AAPL earnings. ADBL, SYNA, PLAY, SGTL are all up over a point.

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  4:37:12 PM
BGP raising estimates.

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  4:36:34 PM
ABMD Warning

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  4:30:16 PM
Alert - AAPL earnings = +0.70 headline,
clean number = +0.53 (4 cent beat) rev $3.49B

est +0.49, rev est +$3.19B
Guiding 40 cents for Q2, 33 cents was consensus.

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  4:15:55 PM
CYN earnings = +1.06, rev $187M, est +1.06, rev est +$191M

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  4:14:34 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ...

Raised a bullish stop for the SNDK Apr. $22.50 calls (SWQ-DX) to sell if the underlying shares of SanDisk (SNDK) $24.49 +2.08% trade lower at $23.90.

For the SMH Jan $32.50 Calls (SMH-AZ) see bottom of Market Monitor and 01/11/2005 01:08:35 AM post.

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  4:05:31 PM
TSCM has hired a consultant to seek out some strategic options. Buyout? Merger?

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  4:04:22 PM
MCK taking a $2.70 per share charge for legal expenses related to class action suit.

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  4:01:38 PM
TSA warning

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  3:52:39 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,614 +0.54% ... 30-minute interval chart with our WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Others may have already noted the reverse h/s pattern, but ties together. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  3:45:35 PM
Yesterday's high is cracking here for QQQQ, with the 30 min channel turning now to the upside.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  3:29:58 PM
QQQQ just poked its head above the previous high at 38.40, with the short cycle upphase strengthening. Key ressitance at yesterday's highs at 38.50 and 38.57 is in view above 38.40.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  3:18:04 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  3:16:06 PM
Earnings after the close
AAPL est +0.49, rev est +$3.19B
CYN est +1.06, rev est +$191M
MDC est +$2.82, rev est +1.26B

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  3:07:15 PM
Stepping away for a few minutes to nurse a headache.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  3:06:00 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  2:57:48 PM
QQQQ bounces back above 38.30 here after a dip to test 38.20, which held as support.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  2:57:04 PM
TNX has given back part of its drop but is still heading for a negative cash close, currently -.8 bps at 4.238%. 4.26% was never broken and should now act as resistance, bullish for bonds.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  2:52:13 PM
February Crude (cl05g) $46.30 +1.35% (30-minute delayed) ... back higher now.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  2:45:14 PM
Dow Diamond (DIA) notes ... made note in my Stock Trader's Alamanac that at 12:12 PM EST, a rather large trade of 300 contracts in the DIA Feb. $104 calls took place at $2.60.

Add $2.60 to $104, and you get $106.40. A conventional retracement from the October lows to recent December highs has 19.1% at $106.48. (also note both WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivots)

Subtract $2.50 from $104 and you get $101.40, which would be just under the conventional 61.8% of $101.60.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  2:45:03 PM
Hmm... there is an interesting (bearish) divergence between the uptrend in shares of ExxonMobil (XOM) and its MACD indicator over the last few months.

The same can be said for ConocoPhillips (COP).

  James Brown   1/12/200,  2:41:23 PM
Semiconductor maker QLGC has been upgraded to a "buy" this morning but the stock is only up +0.9% to $36.75 and still suffering under its five-week trend of lower highs.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  2:39:49 PM
Dreamworks Animation (DWA) is up 8.7% to $36.94 after being upgraded to a "buy" this morning.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  2:37:15 PM
Hmm... Goldman Sachs (GS) is breaking down, not out, from its four-week trading range.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  2:34:39 PM
TASR producing a sharp 19.5% oversold bounce today.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  2:32:55 PM
Genzyme (GENZ) is up 4% today on above average volume and hitting what appears to be new three-year highs. Bulls may want to watch for a breakout over the $60 level or the $61 level (which was resistance back in late 2001).

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  2:29:56 PM
We had a really fun morning as you can imagine with the lengthy monitor outage. We seem to be operating under a cloud the last two weeks. I don't know what else can go wrong but I am sure we will find out if this trend continues. We have had hardware failures on multiple devices, T1 failures, a denial of service attack, etc. Just about everything that could happen has happened. We are switching to a completely new server farm this weekend so any lingering problems will be avoided and replaced with integration into the new servers. The software has been rewritten and should also be more stable. Please bear with us while we work through these challenges.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  2:28:38 PM
QQQQ is now testing 38.30 from above and so far holding it.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  2:25:20 PM
Swing trade bullish call raise stop alert ... Placing a stop loss order to sell the remaining one (1) SanDisk $24.25 +1.16% SNDK April $22.50 call (SWQ-DX) should the stock trade $23.90.

SWQ-DX bid $3.50 as SNDK trades $24.25.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  2:21:41 PM
QQQQ just cleared the previous high of 38.30. A new short cycle upphase is launching. Look for support at 38.30 and 38.22, above which that upphase will persist. Next 30 min channel resistance is 38.40.

  Tab Gilles   1/12/200,  2:19:14 PM
Oil continues to rise with the XLE and MUR performing well today.(some of these charts are a few hours behind since MM was down) XLE 30 minute Link


As for the SPX and VIX some divergence there, not much concern as stocks decline? hmmm....


Semi sector bouncing on INTC news, however, how long will that continue with AMD news. Jeff brought up some good points earlier. I mentioned yesterday that 390.50 was a downside possibility on the $SOX.

  Jane Fox   1/12/200,  2:10:30 PM
Linda has an appointment today and will not be in the monitor.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  2:04:54 PM
30 min and 60 min channel support are now intersecting at 38.10, with the short cycle downphase still in progress. However, there's a wavelet bullish divergence, and the price needs to get back below 38.20 to prevent the short cycle downphase from stalling within the next 5-10 minutes.

  Jim Brown   1/12/200,  2:00:19 PM
Treasury Budget = -$3.44B , (last -$57 billion)

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  1:52:57 PM
A break below 38.18 should yield a quick test of 38.10, which is current 30 min channel support as well as confluence support.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  1:50:57 PM
Dow-component UTX is rebounding from the $99 level and has now broken its two-week trend of lower highs. Shares are up +1.2% to $101.37. Short-term oscillators like the RSI and stochastics suggest this could be a bullish entry point but I'd be careful with the Dow still retreating.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  1:48:45 PM
It is interesting to see EBAY bouncing from a test of its 100-dma near $101.80 this morning.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  1:47:50 PM
Thanks, Marc. I don't follow Dow Theory, as I believe it's become dated with the proliferation of newer, higher beta markets. But a key support break on a key index component, particularly in the wake of yesterday's support breaks for the Dow and NQ, certainly bodes ill.

  Marc Eckelberry   1/12/200,  1:45:29 PM
Jonathan, I think Linda would have been all over the TRAN this morning. I can't tell you how important the 3558/3560 area is with bounces on: 11/05,11/08,11/19, 11/22 and today. Longs better pray it holds, because you can kiss DOW 10500 good bye if we move below. Right now, looking reasonably good, with solid support. But scary, no doubt.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  1:45:01 PM
The bond market has done a crazy Ivan, now in positive territory off the 9:30AM low, with TNX currently down 1.4 bps at 4.23%. 4.26% support is now resistance. Gold has given back part of its gains, currently up 4.3 at 426.8, despite the miners dipping into the red in the past few minutes. The biggest move was in the USD Index following the (im)balance of trade data: Link

  James Brown   1/12/200,  1:40:37 PM
Our new put NTES is down another 2% following yesterday's break under the $50.00 mark. Shares are under performing the minor bounce in the INX Internet index.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  1:39:25 PM
As expected the UPS warning last night has pulled FDX lower today although shares are trading higher than where they were after hours yesterday. Our target is the 100-dma near $91.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  1:37:26 PM
OI put play CAI (-2.3%) has broken through the $60 level and its 100-dma on above average volume but shares are trying to bounce. A failed rally under $60 would be good news for the bears.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  1:37:25 PM
Linda is absent from the Monitor this afternoon.

  Mark Davis   1/12/200,  1:35:35 PM
Hey, we're up! Here's a potential inverse H&S I've been watching on the ES 5-min chart. Neckline @ 1186, upside target if confirmed is 1194. Be aware the neckline could also be a rollover point... Link
If we're going to bounce it should happen pretty soon. If ES drops much below the left shoulder then we've already topped.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/12/200,  1:34:57 PM
The 30 min cycle remains out of sync with QQQQ's price action- either printing a large bullish divergence or a very, very weak upphase. Bulls need to break 38.40, confirmed with a move above 39.50-.55 to reestablish the upphase, while a break below 38.00, confirmed by a break of 37.90 should get the ball rolling for a confirmation of yesterday's support break.

  James Brown   1/12/200,  1:32:28 PM
CNBC is talking about how the massive rains and mudslides could affect homebuilders in the California area.

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  1:15:23 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/12/200,  1:03:51 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  1:36:54 AM
Flash memory ... some of the late color from Intel's call was company saying pricing in the broad market segment was a bit more "brutal" than in the cellular market.

With AMD also making some negative comments regardng flash memory prices, I'll want to keep a close eye on SanDisk (SNDK) $23.99, which last ticked in after-hours at $24.13.

Brokers have been mixed on SNDK with some upgrades and downgrades. My gut feel based on AMD/INTC is that "flash" still seeing some pressure this quarter.

After having sold 2 of the SNDK April $22.50 calls on December 28 for a gain at $4.00 (from $3.30 entry on 12/01/04), I'm feeling 50/50 at this point.

  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  1:08:35 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) with WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $30.76 ... WEEKLY Pivot levels are $29.48, $30.50, Piv = $32.13, $33.15, $34.78.

With Monday being a holiday (no equity trading), I'm thinking that the SMH trades $33.00 at most into next Friday's expiration.

If the SMH were to trade $33.00, then the currently profiled SMH Jan $32.50 Calls (SMH-AZ) would be worth $0.50 maximum at expiration (assuming $33.00 SMH at expiration).

As such, I would be looking to close out these options, consign the loss, on any trade between $0.45 and $0.70.

  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  12:16:28 AM
FedEx (FDX) Link reaffirms Q3 guidance of $0.90-$1.00. Consensus is $0.97.

Company said it experienced a "strong holiday season... We continue to see favorable U.S. and global economic conditions and demand for all of our transportation services is strong."

  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  10:15:51 PM
Today I was puzzled when the dollar suddenly dropped against the yen, but didn't show a move of the same magnitude against the euro. Our equities dropped about the same time. Why would the dollar drop against the yen but not the euro, or at least not by the same magnitude? If Japan were intervening, the movement would likely have been in the opposite direction, I thought, as intervention by the Bank of Japan is usually to keep the dollar strong against the yen in order to help Japanese exporters. Japanese markets weren't open, so it didn't seem likely that an economic report or other development in Japan could have prompted the move. I think I might have found the reason tonight buried in a Bloomberg report. Inside this report, there's a notation that the ECB's Chief Economist warned Asian countries that they needed to allow their currencies to firm against the dollar to help the U.S. reduce its record trade deficit. I bet speculators helped firm those currencies against the dollar, in a hurry, leading to a sudden drop against the yen.

  Jeff Bailey   1/11/200,  10:09:30 PM
February Crude Oil futures (cl05g) $45.79 +0.24% ... updated 30-minute interval chart with my conventional (blue) and fitted bearish 38.2% retracement at this Link

Little head/should top with neckline at $45 would give downside objective to $43.21-$43.89, but break above trend and recent bid along that trend, and a bullish trade reaction to tomorrow's inventor numbers could have oil jumping to $49.29-$50.27.

  Linda Piazza   1/11/200,  9:05:09 PM
Ahead of Intel's report, the OEX ended Tuesday a few cents below its 50-sma. The SPX also closed below its 50-sma. For both indices, it was the first close below that average since October.

The OEX has spent the last five trading sessions consolidating after the quick plunge off the January high, and it's done so in a formation that's gradually been broadening. Broadening formations are more typical of market tops than of bottoms, but they're always indicative of emotion-based trading and always difficult to trade. By the nature of the broadening shape, breakouts in either direction are quickly reversed. Both bulls and bears playing breakouts are seduced into entering plays that are soon losing plays.

The OEX's broadening formation appears to be the right shoulder of a large H&S that's been forming over the last month, visible on the 60- and 120-minute charts. The neckline appears to be at about 564, or one version anyway. Today, that neckline was violated, but the OEX immediately bounced right back above it. Those were brave bulls or foolish bulls buying the OEX just after it had fallen below the 50-sma and a H&S neckline. Tomorrow, we'll find out which.

The OEX also ended the day with a potential inverse H&S on its five-minute chart. That formation was almost negated by late-day selling, but maybe not quite. A move through the 567.15-ish neckline would set up an upside target somewhere near the 570.15 level, the top of the right shoulder for the OEX's big H&S. With a confirmed evening-star pattern on the weekly chart, that big H&S clearly visible on the 60-minute chart, and the right shoulder taking the form of a broadening formation, I'd be wary of trading the upside. A breakout above the right-shoulder level could occur, but if the OEX is going to reject that formation, you're going to have plenty of opportunities to play the upside anyway. A breakdown below yesterday's low should confirm the breakdown below the big H&S neckline on the 60-minute formation, but "should" is the operative word since playing breakdowns out of a broadening formation is as dangerous as playing upside breakouts. We'll take a look tomorrow morning at how futures have reacted to INTC's conference call and overnight developments in the global markets. So far, futures post gains.

  OI Technical Staff   1/11/200,  8:22:10 PM
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