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  Tab Gilles   1/19/200,  10:08:48 PM
Agree Mark...Great Job Linda on MW!

I was just going over today's charts and basically concluded that oil is within the confines of a $40/$50 range nearterm. Just last week Crude inventories fell -3M bbls now they're up +3.4M (DOE). So, are we going to look at crude inventories week by week, or on a long term outlook. I agree with Jim that global demand will outstrip supply in the coming years. So, ecpect fluctuation on a shorter term time frame. As James Brown oil traders will be focused on the upcoming OPEC meeting and how any violence surrounding the Iraqi elections could pressure supplies. Just last week I posted a chart looking for $47.5 as a significant level to be tested, here's an updated chart.



As I do every week I check in on the (VIX/NYSI/SPX/USD) weekly chart. Link

Another sector I follow closely is the $GSO. One stock specifically Citrix Systems (CTXS) Link Link

As for the Nasdaq, the $NASI, continues to decline. This trend hasn't reverse as of yet, thus I'm still short the $COMPQ. Link

  Mark Davis   1/19/200,  9:41:20 PM
Linda... Great market wrap!

  Marc Eckelberry   1/19/200,  8:08:09 PM
LU is stopped out at 3.39 after-hours (-.05), the actual low, now closed at 3.42. The stop was very tight, but I did not want to take any chance. The stock is back above 50% retrace and if it holds above 3.40 tomorrow, it has room to 3.52.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  7:10:19 PM
When seen on a daily chart, it appears that the OEX decided to do away with all that chopping around within the right-shoulder formation for a H&S now visible on its daily chart. It just headed down. The daily candle looks as if the OEX descended all day, but the OEX did spend a good part of the day chopping around on either side of its five-minute 100/130-ema's before plunging near the bond market close.

Now the OEX approaches the neckline at about 561.60, with multiple types of potential support near that level. A gap down below that neckline tomorrow morning--a possibility with after-hours trading patterns but perhaps not a probability--it might be vulnerable at least to 557-557.30, based on this chart: Link What if the OEX instead opens near the close and retreats toward the neckline? Bears should protect profits if that happens as there's a potential for a bounce at that neckline.

If a bounce does occur, should you consider long plays? Perhaps not. As I mentioned in tonight's Wrap, options traders, paying spreads and facing decay in the likely case of falling volatility indices if equity indices bounce, may not be able to capitalize on a choppy upward move within a potential right-shoulder formation. Tomorrow, ahead of the inauguration and the Semi Book-to-Bill number, for that matter, may not be the right day to make a bet on a long position from the neckline area of a potential H&S formation, betting against the chart formation being confirmed. Shorts could be surprised by such a bounce and the markets could run away to the upside, but the wiser choice may be passing up any such potential play if it occurs tomorrow.

Symmetry suggests that the OEX could also chop around for another day or two before it decides on final direction, perhaps chopping around within the right-shoulder level, so this all remains suspect until the neckline is broken or the formation invalidated by a climb above the appropriate right-shoulder level.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  6:48:51 PM
Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  6:40:12 PM
Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  5:38:36 PM
March Crude Oil Futures (cl05h) $47.10 -1.58% (30-minute delayed) ... rings the downside bell at 50% conventional retracement.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  5:33:29 PM
March Crude Oil futures (cl05h) $47.24 -1.29% ... plunges below its WEEKLY Pivot of $47.50.

Weekly Pivot levels ... $43.90, $46.19, Piv = $47.50, $49.80, $51.10.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  5:28:23 PM
Closing Internals at this Link

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:59:59 PM
Alert - API Oil Inventories
Crude = +6.0 mb, est +1.5 mb
Distillates = -450kb, est +750Kb
Gasoline = +5.4 mb, est +1.0 mb

DOE numbers
Crude = +3.4 mb,
Distillates = +880kb,
Gasoline +1.7MB

  James Brown   1/19/200,  4:47:18 PM
With the -10 dollar drop in EBAY after hours looks like EBAY "could" hold technical support at its 200-dma near $92.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:43:53 PM
EBAY on the conference call says it is investing more in expanding its business in China. $300 million instead of the $200 million previously planned. This additional investment is the reason EBAY guided slightly lower on profits for the next three quarters. This should be seen as a positive per my earlier play suggestion. I mentioned then that EBAY expects China to produce more income than the U.S. once the investment is completed. This is a positive for me. Despite the drop, actually more so because of the drop I would still be a strong buyer of EBAY at these levels. Rest assured there will be some strong volatility at the open tomorrow when the general public gets to react to the news. I would look for support to appear and invest for the rebound.

  James Brown   1/19/200,  4:33:44 PM
The reaction in shares of EBAY tonight is a great example of why we almost always avoid holding over an earnings report. In hindsight a neutral play like a straddle or something similar may have worked.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:31:30 PM
Alert - QLGC earnings = +0.48, est +0.47
Revenue higher

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:30:36 PM
SWKS earnings = +0.13, est +0.13
Rev slightly lower, guiding lower

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:26:57 PM
Stop losses getting blown out across the board on EBAY with the stock now down to $93. Going to be a lot of pain tomorrow as the sector reacts to the EBAY drop.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:23:22 PM
EBAY finding support at $95.00. I would be a strong buyer here on the post earnings play I outlined earlier today.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:19:48 PM
EBAY trading down at $95.00 and trades are blowing through the after hours market.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  4:19:30 PM
I sure won't Tab! After that "doji" day yesterday and a bearish-looking settlement below $47.61 for February Crude.

The median estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg has crude inventories forecasted to rise by 1 million barrels and distillate stockpiles to rise 500,000; the median estimate was revised upward overnight.

One important note is that the Feb crude futures contract will be expiring on Jan 20.

March Crude Oil Futures (cl05h) daily interval bar chart, with fitted 38.2% (PINK) and conventional (BLUE) retracement at this Link

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:17:24 PM
Alert - EBAY earnings = +0.33, est +0.34
Revenue slightly above estimates
2:1 STOCK SPLIT, guiding slightly lower
Remember, I mentioned earlier that EBAY is normally cautious on guidance.

  Tab Gilles   1/19/200,  4:13:33 PM
Don't forget EAI reports at 5 PM. Link

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:13:17 PM
PCXM earnings +0.24, est +0.25
revenue light

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:11:57 PM
EBAY trading well off the highs of the day and nearing the $102 level I mentioned earlier as a potential post earnings entry point. Currently $103.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  4:10:50 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Closed out at bearish target the two (2) TASR Feb. $20 puts (QUR-ND) at the offer of $2.75. ($0.95, or 34.55%)

Day trade short AMR Corp. (AMR) at $8.81, closed at target of $8.65. ($0.16, or 1.85%)

Day trade short Nortel (NT) at $3.17, closed at target of $3.11. ($0.06, or 1.93%).

Bearish swing trade put for Extreme Networks and five (5) of the EXTR Mar. $5 puts (EXJ-OA) at the offer of $0.25.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  4:10:09 PM
QQQQ's testing 37.90 support now, current low 37.937.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:07:51 PM
EXTR earnings = +0.08, est +0.04
Big Beat, revenue higher, Guiding slightly higher

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:06:26 PM
Alert - SYMC earnings = +0.25, est +0.22
Beat est, Guiding higher

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:05:56 PM
DSS earnings = +0.05, est +0.00

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:05:37 PM
FFIV earnings = +0.26, est +0.21

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:04:00 PM
Alert - COF earnings = +0.77, est +0.99
Bad miss, guiding inline

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:02:58 PM
Alert - QCOM earnings = +0.28 , est +0.27
Revenue inline, guiding inline

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:02:18 PM
PLNR earnings = +0.00, est +0.03
Earnings miss - Warning on 2005

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  4:01:36 PM
WSTL earnings = +0.05 , est +0.08
Guiding higher after items

  Tab Gilles   1/19/200,  4:00:44 PM
$VIX/$SPX ...Back on 1/14 I highlighted the 60 minute VIX chart and it's MACD. Looks as if the volatility is now picking up.


  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  3:55:52 PM
Here's where the OEX is with respect to the latest H&S, now visible on its daily chart: Link As you can see, it's approaching the neckline, with that neckline at about 561.60. What does a bear with a profitable position do ahead of that neckline test? Choices include selling partial positions and setting the rest of the position to breakeven.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  3:55:51 PM
Important Earnings after the close

WM est +0.76
COF est +0.99
DSS est +0.00
RDN est +1.21
EBAY est +0.34
EXTR est +0.04
FFIV est +0.21
MACR est +0.21
PLNR est +0.03
QLGC est +0.47
QCOM est +0.27
SWKS est +0.13
SYMCest +0.22
WSTL est +0.08

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  3:53:13 PM
Looks like today's 9.5B net repo drain from the Fed's open market desk had some teeth after all.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  3:53:08 PM
Swing trade bearish put entry alert for Extreme Networks (EXTR) and five (5) of the EXTR March $5 puts (EXJ-OA)) at the offer of $0.25.

EXTR $5.80 -1.86% here.

Earnings after the close.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  3:45:04 PM
After confirming an inverse H&S, the TRAN loitered above the confirmation level, reluctant to move higher. I mentioned that it was not showing a strong push toward its upside target, a danger sign to bulls, and noted that it was headed down to retest that neckline. Over the last 40 minute, the TRAN has fallen almost 60 points, now off its low. Not a picture of strength, to say the least. Does someone know something about that inventories number?

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  3:41:38 PM
The SOX is below 400.

  Tab Gilles   1/19/200,  3:41:35 PM
PFE ...could Pfizer be setting up a double bottom? Recall I mentioned on 1/10 12:00PM post, that James Stack of InvesTech, while on CNBC, was calling PFE undervalued at only a 15 p/e.


  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  3:37:20 PM
February Crude Oil futures (cl05g) settled down $0.83, or -1.72% at $47.55.

February Heating Oil (ho05g) settled down $0.001, or -0.09% at $1.3426

February Unleaded Gas (hu05g) settled up $0.0013, or 0.10% at $1.2632.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  3:33:34 PM
Just about the time I noted how stuck the OEX looked, Keltner-wise, it breaks. The break is to the downside, in keeping with the possible H&S building since November. The neckline is about 561.80, so that's again a potential bounce point.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  3:25:43 PM
Session lows across the board. QQQQ is bearish below 38.30.-38.35.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  3:15:11 PM
Bearish day trade target alert .... for Nortel Networks (NT) $3.11 -4.01%

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  3:14:29 PM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.78 -0.34% ...

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  3:14:00 PM
Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,189.06 , QQQQ $38.30

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  3:12:17 PM
QQQQ has rolled over and is coming in for a retest of the lows, with 30 and 60 min channel support still lined up at 38.30-.32. This is a do or doo-doo level for QQQQ bulls.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  3:11:26 PM
03:00 Internals at this Link

  Tab Gilles   1/19/200,  3:10:47 PM
I took a look at the EUR/USD chart over the past year and ran it up against the $SPX. If the Dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro could this mean a lower market? Warren Buffet today on CNBC however, stated that if US trade policy remains "as is" then the Dollar will continue it's downtrend. And that he's finding few stocks to buy.


  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  3:08:58 PM
The Beige Book said that inflationary costs were held in check. Something is holding the markets in check, too. Can't seem to move. I just checked Keltner charts from the 3-minute interval to the 60-minute, and they all show the OEX settling into dreaded equilibrium positions, in which the OEX chops back and forth within a narrowing channel. Support looks slightly stronger than resistance on the 15-minute chart: the opposite is true on the 60-minute one. The OEX is like a bumper car surrounded by concentric circles of other bumper cars. It's got to accelerate first one direction and then the reverse until it finally breaks through one direction or the other. Either that, it sits in one position until the other bumper car drivers get bored and drift off somewhere else, leaving a space for the OEX to move through.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  3:02:43 PM
03:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  2:55:45 PM
Today is on track to be a very low volume session for QQQQ at 64.9M shares traded so far, well below the average daily volume of 92.1M. Because most of today has been a 30 minute cycle downphase, the low volume reinforces the interpretation of that downphase as being corrective.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  2:49:26 PM
The OEX has twined itself around the five-minue 100/130-ema's for most of the day, since its early decline. Those averages are now at the center of the OEX's rectangular range for the last few hours.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  2:49:24 PM
VMC - Vulcan Materials, is leading the materials group higher as prices and demand for construction materials continues to climb. Earnings are Jan-31st and short covering and expectations appear to be threatening to push VMC to a breakout over $55 resistance. Commodities, materials and steel should continue to rise as global demand increases. I would hesitate to enter VMC before earnings have passed but a breakout over $55 resistance could accelerate short covering. The May $55 call VMC-EK is very cheap at $2.45 considering it is already at the money. I would personally take a chance here considering the strong bounce from the 2005 profit taking. A stop at $54 should protect you from disaster. Link

  James Brown   1/19/200,  2:40:44 PM
Convergys (CVG) is bucking the weakness in the NWX Networking index (-2.6%) after reporting earnings and beating estimates by 3 cents per share. CVG is up 4.7% and breaking out over resistance near $15.40.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  2:39:49 PM
Tab, thanks for the link to the Beige Book.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  2:39:03 PM
The TRAN has confirmed an inverse H&S on its five-minute chart, upside target about 3597.60. If that target is met, TRAN investors will have parked the TRAN under next strong resistance ahead of the after-hours release of inventories. So far, the TRAN isn't exactly taking off. It's at 3580.56 as I type, looking ready to backtrace and retest that neckline, now near 3578.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  2:34:02 PM
Juniper Networks (JNPR) $26.13 -1.24% ... sudden comeback from lows of $25.22.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  2:31:02 PM
Session low for Nymex crude here at the close, -1.6% at 47.60.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  2:29:39 PM
The OEX moves up through the range it has traded within during the middle of the day, with the top of that range at about 567.71. The OEX came close to producing a double-bottom formation, and so a push out of the top of that rectangular formation would also constitute a confirmation of the double-bottom formation. Doesn't matter what we call it because a confirmation of the double-bottom formation or an upside break out of the rectangular range would each have the same upside target, at about 569.20, near yesterday's high. That break hasn't happened yet, however.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  2:29:00 PM
HRS - Harris Corp - Despite multiple upgrades and almost daily news releases HRS continues to fall. The drop today broke support at $57 and could be the leading indicator of a stronger drop ahead. The peak came in November and traders have been dumping stock ever since. I would look at the May $55 put HRS-QK currently only $2.95. If the drop picks up speed on the broken support we could easily see $50. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  2:28:19 PM
The lack of a retest of the 38.33 low for the past 2 hours suggests that this sideways chop is just consolidation as the 60 min channel catches up to the upticking 30 min cycle channel. If so, then 38.33 could prove to be the higher low-retest within the daily cycle, which itself appears to be trying to take the first steps of its daily cycle upphase.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  2:22:31 PM
Adobe Systems (ADBE) $58.88 +0.85% ... finds a bid above Tuesday's high ($58.55)

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  2:18:51 PM
Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... for Nortel (NT) $3.13 -3.39% ... to break even.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  2:12:38 PM
Nortel (NT) $3.14 -3.08% ... probes yesterday's low

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  2:12:38 PM
ADBE - Adobe has pulled back to $58.75 and just over the 100 day average at $55.50 and appears to have found support at the $58 level. Earnings were in December and removes some of the risk for an entry at the current level. I would look to enter at the current level and use a break below the 100 day average as a stop loss. The April $60 call AEQ-DL is currently $2.75. Link

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  2:11:59 PM
The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart did prove right. The OEX did fall toward 566.40 (exceeding that predicted decline now) but not before rising toward 567. See my 13:38 post. So what does that chart show now? It shows the OEX testing three-minute Keltner support and perhaps ready for another bounce(started as I typed), but that resistance near 567 and perhaps as low as 566.63 looks relatively firm, too. The OEX may be settling into a rectangular trading range from about 566.20-567.70.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  2:06:34 PM
Session low for euros here, dipping under 1.3 at 1.2989 currently.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  2:06:15 PM
Stepping away for 5 minutes.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  2:03:01 PM
02:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Tab Gilles   1/19/200,  2:02:03 PM

"Inflationary pressures remained largely in check in December and early January. While many manufacturers and builders continued to report small increases in input costs, price increases for final goods and services were generally modest."-Federal Reserve

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  2:01:07 PM
EBAY has a history of dipping with earnings as traders typically want more aggressive guidance than EBAY normally gives. EBAY beats estimates and guides cautiously. Their earnings are tonight after the close and they are expected to beat once again. The CEO said last quarter that China was growing extremely fast and would eventually account for more revenue than the U.S. EBAY has already pulled back to the 100 day average on 2005 profit taking and could drop back to that average at $102 again after tonights earnings. I believe this is a buying opportunity for the Internet stock with the most growth potential. With EBAY currently at $105.33 I would look at the April $110 calls XBA-DB currently at $6.00 or if we do get the dip back to $102 I would look at the April $105 calls XBA-DA when they pullback from their current $8.30. Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  2:00:05 PM
Bearish day trade target alert ... for AMR Corp. (AMR) $8.65 -2.40%.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  1:48:30 PM
WLP continues to edge higher and is currently wedging up to resistance at $125 and a breakout there could be very strong. After the spike higher back on the 10th WLP has held 120 support with barely a blink as the markets continued to be weak. I like WLP and it appears the market likes it after the recent merger. I would look at the March $125 calls WLP-CE currently $4.80 for a potential breakout move. Link

  James Brown   1/19/200,  1:47:03 PM
Rambus Inc (RMBS) is down 11.7% to $18.81 and testing technical support at the 200-dma after reporting earnings last night and missing estimates by 2 cents per share.

  James Brown   1/19/200,  1:45:47 PM
Marvel Enterprises (MVL) is down 4.4% and testing support at the 200-dma after losing a lawsuit from Spider-man creator Stan Lee. The courts ruled that Stan is entitled to 10 percent of the profits from films and television shows using the Marvel characters.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  1:43:51 PM
I need to step away for about 15-minutes

  James Brown   1/19/200,  1:39:19 PM
Ouch! Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) is down 6.8% and breaking support at the $6.00 level today.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  1:38:54 PM
Now resistance looks firmer than support on the OEX's three-minute chart. It may decline again toward 566.40, but perhaps not before it retests the 567-567.30 level.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  1:38:51 PM
VIX.X and SPX.X ... both sitting right on their respective DAILY Pivots.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  1:37:57 PM
SFA has a nice looking chart with a recent bounce off the 50 day average for the second time since October. Currently at $31.50 it appears to have a good chance of returning to its January, pre profit taking high around $34 with a good chance it could reach resistance at $36 if earnings are positive. The March $30 call SFA-CF is currently $2.80 and already $1.50 in the money. Earnings are tomorrow and I would hesitate on an entry until after they are announced and you get confirmation that the trend will continue. Link

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  1:37:45 PM
AMR (AMR) $8.75 -1.35% ... testing session low found at 12:00

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  1:37:17 PM
The 30 and 60 min cycle channels are now flat, with QQQQ returning to the 7200-tick SMA after its 3rd upside break of the day. The current channel is from 38.30-38.55, and while the bears are starting to look tired on a 30-min (and daily) cycle basis, bulls need to see QQQQ hold above the 7200-tick SMA.

  James Brown   1/19/200,  1:37:00 PM
ImClone Systems (IMCL) continues to sink, down 2.5% and breaking round-number, psychological support at the $40.00 mark today.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  1:35:50 PM
Nortel (NT) gets 60,000 at the bid of $3.16.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  1:23:11 PM
On the 100-tick QQQQ chart, this spike actually gapped the bid higher despite relatively low volume. Looks like the sellers just disappeared for a couple of seconds. In any event, upper 30 min channel resistance just got hit as the 30 and 60 min cycle bands begin to tick up together. The outlook is bullish above 38.45.

  Jim Brown   1/19/200,  1:19:07 PM
Speech by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Productivity Link

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  1:18:44 PM
The SOX is at 501.61 as I type, moving down toward a retest of the 400 level. Like many other indices, the SOX shows a potential inverse H&S on its 60-minute chart, and it would currently take a move above 407.45 to confirm it. I'd certainly wait until a move above yesterday's high, however, before I considered it confirmed. This potential bullish formation competes with more bearish chart characteristics, of course. That's an outgrowth of the uncertainty: both bulls and bears push their cases and competing formations set up. Whatcha gonna trust? Either wait for more clarity when trading in the semis or trade your convictions with appropriate stops and a readiness to take profits quickly. And perhaps a willingness to be whipsawed out of some positions.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  1:13:57 PM
01:00 Internals at this Link

TRIN daily pivot 0.96

VIX.X daily pivot 12.58

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  1:03:12 PM
We're moving closer to the time for a stop-running push, although still perhaps 30 to 45 minutes away. The OEX's fifteen-minute chart shows support trying to firm beneath the OEX, down to about 566.27, with resistance perhaps thinning out. The smallest channel turns down, however, and the OEX needs to maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 567.03 to have any hope of turning it higher again. Despite that firming support, the OEX remains vulnerable to a decline unless that channel turns up again.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  1:02:34 PM
01:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  12:52:29 PM
Here's the test of 38.45 resistance, with the short cycle oscillators again turning up.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  12:50:49 PM
HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $2.30 and set for program selling at $0.20.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  12:48:35 PM
The OEX rises from the 50-sma, tests the five-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages now at 567.07 and 566.85, respectively. Still chop.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  12:39:26 PM
QQQQ dipped as lows as 38.33 before doji-ing back up, but the lack of range on the bounce has caused the 30 and 60 min channels to begin ticking down in unison. 30 min support is now down to 38.30, 60 min support 38.33. Bulls need to break 38.45 to stall these downphases.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  12:36:19 PM
Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  12:33:53 PM
The OEX just doesn't want to slip far below the 50-sma. I still don't see definitive evidence that the OEX is ready to move out of the choppy trading behavior. It needs a strong downthrust through that 50-sma before any real declines could get started, I think.

  James Brown   1/19/200,  12:30:39 PM
The March 2005 Copper contracts are inching higher again, currently in a two-week bounce from its rising, technical support at the 100-dma. The MACD is nearing a new buy signal.

  James Brown   1/19/200,  12:29:20 PM
The NWX Networking index is today's big loser down 3.24% and falling through the bottom of its short-term, week-long trading range.

  James Brown   1/19/200,  12:28:10 PM
The two-week trend in the DRG drug index continues to look bearish with today's failed rally at the 40 & 50-dma's.

  James Brown   1/19/200,  12:25:42 PM
Warren Buffet, on CNBC, talking about the big increase in raw material costs for his businesses and how he still expects an increase in inflation.

  James Brown   1/19/200,  12:24:42 PM
The OSX oil services index is up 0.95% and nearing new all-time highs/resistance near the 128-129 region.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  12:23:54 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $24.11 -4.17% .... renewed concern over competition in "flash"

  James Brown   1/19/200,  12:23:20 PM
The IUX Insurance index broke out over resistance yesterday to hit new three-month highs. Now that rally is rolling over after testing September resistance near the 324-325 level.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  12:22:18 PM
Pfizer (PFE) $24.97 -1.30% .... cracks $25.00

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  12:21:48 PM
The advdec line invalidated its potential inverse H&S by falling to an equal low, but now there's a potential double-bottom formation.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  12:21:04 PM
Not much of a bounce here on the OEX. It's facing Keltner resistance on the three-minute chart. If it can't soon move above the 566.55 level on a three-minute closing basis, it looks vulnerable down toward 565.57.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  12:19:56 PM
Stepping away for 15 minutes.

  James Brown   1/19/200,  12:17:05 PM
OI call play Aetna (AET) is outperforming the market and the IUX insurance index with a 1.75% gain to $128.75. Both CSFB and Morgan Stanley reiterated their "out perform" and "overweight" ratings, respectively, on the stock this morning.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  12:15:10 PM
12:00 Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  12:06:36 PM
The OEX stubbornly clings to its five-minute 100/130-ema's. If it's going to follow the TRAN, as it sometimes does, it will head lower below those averages. However, the OEX is sitting on its 50-dma and the TRAN did not have that support just beneath its five-minute 100/130-ema's. It does have this approaching 3560-ish historical support as well as 60-minute Keltner support in the same area. There's bounce potential here for both indices, although the TRIN's and advdec's level doesn't yet support a bounce. Note, though, the potential H&S in the TRIN and inverse H&S in the advdec line. Watch those for clues.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  12:06:11 PM
New lows breaking here, QQQQ back to 38.39, but the Keltner channels are still holding 38.35 for both the 30 and 60 min cycles.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  12:05:23 PM
12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Networkers and Airlines pace decline

Oil Service and Homebuilders show relative strength.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  12:02:38 PM
The TRAN continues declining, approaching Fiday's 3560-ish support. It's at 3565.96 as I type.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  11:58:11 AM
Reader Question: CMC volume since 12/20 has been very high. What are your thoughts concerning the volume and what might happen to the stock?

Response: Not only has volume been high, but OBV, on-balance volume, has been rising steeply, too. Those owning stocks that are climbing want to see the climb mirrored in the OBV indicator, as it is with CMC.

Next, as to the reasons behind the climb, I'm a technical rather than a fundamental trader, and trade indices more than individual stocks, so my guesses as to the reasons would be the same anyone would find through a search of recent news articles regarding CMC. CMC reported earnings on 12/20, so it would be my guess that the earnings and outlook were well-received, a guess that anyone might make. The company beat expectations, as this reader probably already knew. I've been reading that in Asia at least companies have been raising steel prices, and presumably CMC benefits from such strength. Then there was the run-up into the split. I notice a number of insiders selling this morning, but since I'm unfamiliar with the pattern here, I'm not certain if the selling is out of the normal or if it might be compulsory.

The P&F chart shows an ascending triple-top breakout in late November, with the $25.00 upside objective already met. Is CMC's rally living on borrowed time? It's certainly far outstripped its important moving averages, a situation that I usually find dangerous. The longer-term out you go looking at CMC's chart, the more extended the rally looks. A yearly chart, for example, shows a few years of basing and then an extended climb for several years with tall white candles shooting up into the stratosphere.

Looks dangerous, as I said. However, it's also dangerous to step in front of a rally reinforced by improving OBV, and so far, that's what's happening. Let's take a look at the chart: Link As can be seen from that chart, CMC based for a month between $23.75-$26.00 before gapping up again the moving higher. Have there been enough gaps to consider that a possible exhaustion gap? Perhaps, especially given the shape of the candles since the gap higher, but then there's that strong base to consider, too. If MACD and OBV come down and test their rising trendlines and bounce at the same time that CMC comes down to test its own rising trendline, another bounce might be more likely. I don't think I'd be a willing new bull on any such bounce, however, as it's still too far above those important moving averages for my liking.

I don't know that I'd be much more willing on the bearish side, however. No matter what I think about how extended it looks and about how much it needs to retest the 30-sma and maybe even the 50-sma, it's climbing and has supporting chart characteristics. I think it needs to retrace. I think it eventually will, just as I thought TASR and KKD eventually would, too. They did, but long after I thought they should.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  11:57:00 AM
Day trade short alert ... for Nortel (NT) $3.17 here, stop $3.21, target $3.11.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  11:54:20 AM
QQQQ has just retested the low after unceremoniously falling back below 7200 tick SMA support, now resistance at 38.47. The 30 and 60 min cycle channels have flattened out, however, and support is lined up for both at 38.35. QQQQ needs to clear 38.55 to the upside to confirm any bullishness.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  11:34:37 AM
11:00 Internals at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  11:33:44 AM
QQQQ's just broken 38.50 resistance with a tall candle, and the 30 min cycle channel is showing its first uptick of the morning. Resistance is 38.57, but that level will rise if QQQQ holds north of 38.50.

  Marc Eckelberry   1/19/200,  11:26:02 AM
Long LU 3.44, stop 3.39.

  Marc Eckelberry   1/19/200,  11:25:31 AM
LU has a double bottom at 3.43, which is 50% retrace off aug lows. I think it is a buy here, even though they missed a bit, revenues are good.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  11:24:49 AM
QQQQ's just bounced above its previous high. 7200 tick SMA resistance is at 38.50, above which the 30 min cycle downphase will stall.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  11:21:26 AM
Session low for ten year notes, TNX currently up 1.3 bps at 4.208%.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  11:13:09 AM
The OEX is back above the five-minute 100/130-ema's, but bulls need to see it above the five-minute 21-ema at 567.68 on a five-minute closing basis before they believe in a change in trend. (OEX turning down a little as I type.) The TRAN remains below all.

To reiterate, my belief is that the OEX is going to chop around for a while, with uncertainty as to how long "a while" might be. Symmetry on the 120-minute charts suggest that it might spend a few days chopping around before either bulls or bears win out. For now, for this snapshot in time, internals suggest to me that entering bearish positions on rollovers beneath the 30-sma are better bets than entering breakouts above that average, but that's within the context of possible continuing choppy conditions. That can change. For now, that's what I see, however, but I'd be quick to protect profits. We have chart evidence (see my 11:05 post) that bulls are still trying and we have evidence among our own staff that some see this as a buying rather than a selling opportunity. Trade carefully.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  11:10:43 AM
Bearish day trade short alert for AMR Corp. (AMR) at the bid of $8.81, stop $8.91, target $8.65.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  11:08:01 AM
AMR Corp. (AMR) $8.83 -0.45% ... reports quarterly EPS loss of $2.94, which was narrower than the $-3.12 consensus. Revenues rose 3.4% year-over-year.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  11:05:49 AM
Fodder for bullish hopes? Here are two possible inverse H&S's on the OEX's 60-minute chart, here in a line drawing so it's easier to pick them out (I hope): Link These, of course, combat the potential regular H&S's, and they're more evidence that bulls and bears might not yet have settled which group has supremacy. The portion of the chart shown here is the right shoulder for that larger regular H&S.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  11:01:27 AM
Yesterday's strong runup coincided with a large net add from the Fed's open market desk. That runup started 15-20 minutes after the Fed announcement. Today, the Fed announced a large net drain, and 38.57 support broke 15-20 minutes thereafter. If only it could be that simple! But so far, QQQQ remains weak.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  10:56:42 AM
The 30 min cycle downphase has steepened, with 30 min support down to 38.35. The persistence down here near the session lows makes it more difficult to rule this downphase "corrective", as it appeared to be earlier when 38.60 was acting as magnet. The bears are doing a good job so far chipping away at yesterday's gains.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:56:31 AM
Have bears already exhausted willing bulls' interest in buying dips ahead of the earnings season? Somehow, I don't quite think so yet. That means that bears need to be prepared to protect those profits when offered.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:54:55 AM
The OEX is below the five-minute 100/130-ema's, currently testing the 50-sma. Bears should have profit-protecting plans in place for this test. On any bounce, bears would most like to see the OEX stopped again at those five-minute 100/130-ema's.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  10:50:42 AM
A wavelet upphase has just launched. Look for the short cycle to follow suit on a move above 38.55 QQQQ. Below 38.42, the wavelet oscillator should whipsaw back down.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  10:46:38 AM
Bearish swing trade target alert for Taser Intl. TASR $17.85 -9.5% and the two (2) TASR Feb. $20 puts (QUR-ND) at the bid of $3.70.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  10:42:38 AM
Snapshot of pre-market earnings at this Link

Upside responses >+2% ... APH $36.89 +5.06%, CVG $15.10 +2.23%, LLTC $37.83 +2.10%

Downside responses >-2% ... BK $31.20 -5.0%, CIT $42.17 -3.83%, ETH $36.40 -4.21%, FAST $60.31 -3.33%, LU $3.47 -5.98%, NTRS $45.98 -2.25%, NWAC $8.11 -3.56%, SLM $52.65 -3%, LUV $14.50 -3.33%

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:42:23 AM
No, other sources now confirm the delay in the release of crude futures until 5:00 EST this afternoon.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:40:42 AM
The OEX is testing its five-minute 100/130-ema's, below the 100-ema at 567.22, but bouncing from the 130-ema at 566.85.

If the TRAN is leading the way, it's leading down from these averages. After bouncing above them for a short period, it came back and now drops, now at the low of the day. Were those inventories released after all? Checking.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:39:01 AM
Reader A.W. says his news source also suggests a 5:00 release for crude inventories.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  10:37:38 AM
QQQQ just printed a low at 38.45 and is now trying to bounce, currently up 3 cents to 38.48. The 30 min channel support has declined to 38.41.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:32:51 AM
Laughing, Keene. (See Keene's 10:27 post.) If I only could control the markets!

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:31:30 AM
The OEX is now less than a point away from its 50-sma at 566.70, and bears need to have a plan in mind for that test. The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 566.84 and 567.22, so that plan might need to be enacted ahead of the 50-sma. Yesterday, the OEX's five-minute candles gapped first below and then above those averages, showing their importance over the short-term. This would be an appropriate point for a bounce, but bears want to see that bounce look corrective and want five-minute closes beneath the five-minute 21-ema at 568.30 if the OEX does bounce. My greatest expectation is still for chop until the bulls and bears sort out which is strongest, but I'm not yet seeing any strength in the advdec line's direction that would alert us as yet that a strong bounce was imminent. Might be famous last words . . .

  Keene Little   1/19/200,  10:27:40 AM
Linda, you called it first (a choppy rangebound market for today), so this lack of movement and boring morning thus far is your fault.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  10:23:57 AM
So far, QQQQ's decline is slow and tenuous, definitely corrective. Considering that the 30 min cycle oscillators were as overbought yesterday as they've been in a month, today's mild decline looks extremely bullish to me. Bears still have time today to change the tone of this decline, but if they don't, the next upphase should be a doozy and will likely kick off the impending daily cycle upphase.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  10:21:15 AM
10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:19:55 AM
Despite the possibility that the OEX is trying to base at the 60-minute mid-channel level, there's Keltner resistance just overhead at 571.33. With the TRIN where it is, I'd be more likely to be making bets on the bearish side than the bullish, if I felt inclined to trade today while the OEX was still within that broadening formation displayed in my 9:47 post. Timewise, it's still within a zone in which it might need to chop around a bit more at the top of a right shoulder before either rejecting it or confirming it. At this snapshot in time, though, entering bearish positions on rollovers beneath the 30-sma look like a better bet than buying breakouts above it. The OEX will soon hit the 50-sma at 566.71 if it keeps declining, and matters might change then. Those who might have already entered bearish plays need to be watchful as that average is tested.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  10:17:23 AM
30 minute channel support is holding steady at 38.45, resistance at 38.77 QQQQ. It will take a move below 38.55 to set up a test of that channel/confluence support and turn the 30 min channel more decisively down.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:11:11 AM
Since late yesterday morning, the OEX has been doing battle with the mid-channel resistance on the 60-minute chart. It still is. It has shown some 60-minute closes above that mid-channel level, currently at 568.24, but hasn't really been able to break away. Still, if it can continue to maintain 60-minute closes above that level--questionable at the current time--it could be building a base in preparation for a move higher.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:07:58 AM
Doing a check, I notice that the OEX's 9-period daily RSI has not broken above the descending trendline that began forming in mid-November. In fact, it hooks down below that trendline, but an OEX climb today could turn it higher again. The RSI is a bit fickle, but trendline breaks are sometimes meaningful, either leading or corroborating a move in the prices. So far, the RSI action remains consistent with the formation of a H&S. So far.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  10:07:01 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $25.30 (unch) ... after jumping to $25.72 at the open.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  10:06:13 AM
Bonds are backing off their earlier gains, TNX up to a 1 bp loss at 4.185%. The 4.14%-4.16% confluence support has held for its first test.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  10:05:33 AM
Weekly EIA inventory data will be released later this evening at 05:00 PM EST.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  10:05:07 AM
QQQQ is currently testing former support at 38.65 and is backing down as I type.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  10:04:33 AM
10:00 Market Watch at this Link

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:04:09 AM
The OEX remains below the 30-sma.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  10:02:08 AM
The TRAN is back above its five-minute 100/130-ema's, still hovering near them.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  9:59:02 AM
The Fed's open market desk has announced a 5.5B overnight repo against expirations of 15B, for a large net drain of 9.5B for the day.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  9:58:06 AM
VIX.X 12.45 -0.16% .... Daily Pivot Levels ... 11.84, 12.13, Piv = 12.58, 12.87, 13.32

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  9:52:52 AM
One note of particular interest. While I'm not sure it's correct, I show the crude inventories number's release being delayed until 5:00 this afternoon this week. Anyone know if that's correct?

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  9:52:14 AM
Pulte Home (PHM) $67.35 +2.02%

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  9:52:03 AM
The SOX is lower this morning, but not below 400. Early in the day, the TRAN fell below the five-minute 100/130-ema's and hovers just below those averages as I type. The BIX tumbles, but so far has retraced less than 38.2% of yesterday's range, so the retracement is minimal so far.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  9:50:03 AM
Homebuilders (DJUSHB) sector winner after stronger than expected starts and permits.

December starts 2004K versus consensus 1905K and November's upwardly revised 1870K (prior 1771K)

Building permits 2021K versus consensus 1985K and November's upwardly revised 2028K (prior 1988K)

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  9:47:39 AM
This is the formation that OEX traders are watching on their daily charts. Bears are worried that it will be invalidated; bulls, that it will be confirmed. Link Until bulls and bears figure out which is stronger, the OEX is going to chop around. Will that decision be made in minutes or days? I'm not certain, and the presence of a broadening formation on intraday charts reiterates my concern that trading could remain choppy and unpredictable for a few days. The fact is that the mixed-up indicators might lead to a missed trade. So be it.

Those who have to trade today could use the 30-sma as a benchmark--bearish on rollovers below, bullish on pushes above--as it's been showing some relevance to OEX trading this month, but be aware that the OEX has in fact chopped above that average a few times in intraday trading only to fall back by the close. I don't see strong evidence as to timing or final direction. Bears can say that one H&S formation after another keeps trying to set up, this latest one forming since November, so that it has more importance. That's true. Bulls can say that one H&S formation after another sets up, with either no confirmation or no follow-through after confirmation. That's true, too. If you're bearish and feel that markets will decline and don't mind the lack of confirmation, you can be making bets based on that 30-sma, currently at 569.59, and those bullish can be making bets based on pushes above it, too, but both should sure want as much confirmation as possible from internals. Watch Jane's posts.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  9:46:53 AM
A short cycle downphase is currently in progress, with channel support declining to 38.56 as I type, resistance now at 38.66 QQQQ. A break below 38.60 should see the young downphase steepen, and that lower support level should continue to decline. Next confluence support below 38.60 would be at 38.45.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  9:37:09 AM
The advdec number is lower this morning, but not as low as yesterday's. First three-minute Keltner support is so far holding on the OEX. Keltner resistance at 569.40 looks strong, but it's rising, so that the OEX could perhaps be able to climb the underside without ever truly breaking over that resistance. As of yesterday, the OEX was showing Keltner-style bearish divergence. If that's to continue, the OEX won't break out, but may nudge the Keltner resistance higher. If it's truly to follow through, the OEX will roll lower before it climbs too much higher. Bearish divergence offers a warning only, and it's a warning that prices don't always heed.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  9:33:38 AM
Taser Intl. (TASR) $18.63 -5.81% ... Use of tasers approved by Ontario police forces.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  9:33:15 AM
QQQQ continues to float between the 38.60-38.80 range from yesterday afternoon.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  9:33:10 AM
Three-minute OEX Keltner support being tested at 568.50, with firmer support near 567.50.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  9:31:32 AM
Correction to my 9:28 post. I'd accidentally put the wrong symbol into the three-minute Keltner chart. Resistance looked equally as strong.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  9:28:53 AM
As Keene mentioned, I'm worried that the markets could chop around a day or two while they decide whether to head higher or lower. Specifically on the OEX, it's at or nearing the top of an appropriate right-shoulder level for another potential H&S, with the formation included in last night's OEX update, which I'll post again below. With the OEX, that could even include moving a little higher, perhaps to 570-571 or even to 572 before we know whether it will round down or invalidate the potential formation. Those movements would still keep it within a broadening formation on the intraday charts, with that formation also shown in last night's post. As yesterday closed, the three-minute Keltner chart showed near-term support near 568.45 but stronger near 567.50. Let's see if it holds.

Last night's post for those who didn't see it: Tuesday, the OEX looked weak in earliest trading, but not weak enough. I worried that it might be preparing for a climb into a right shoulder for this formation: Link I had been warning of that possibility since Thursday evening, and it came to pass Tuesday. About mid-morning, the OEX gapped above the five-minute 100/130-ema's. It crossed the 50-dma and headed up toward the 30-dma, where it was finally stopped, at least temporarily. Symmetry suggests that the OEX might now chop around for a day or two at the top of the shoulder before bulls or bears win supremacy and either invalidate the formation or confirm it.

The H&S formation that was confirmed last week has disintegrated a bit, or at least the neckline has, suggesting that bears haven't yet exhausted willing buyers. I began warning that this failure of bears to follow through was troublesome. Tuesday's move brought the OEX back into the broadening formation it's been forming throughout most of January, questioning whether the downside breakout was a trap: Link You know what trading it like inside a broadening formation. It's usually choppy and unpredictable. While the OEX's candles are inside that formation, the possibility still exists that the OEX forms a right shoulder for the bigger H&S that's been forming since early December. On a breakout above the top trendline of the broadening formation, we can consider that right-shoulder scenario undermined. I'm watching daily 9-period RSI for clues. Since the middle of November, while that larger H&S was perhaps forming, the RSI has begun forming a descending trendline off lower highs. If the RSI leads by punching up through that trendline or punches through it at the same time that the OEX punches through the upper boundary of the formation, the breakout appears more valid.

For now, I'm worried about the possibility of another day or two of choppy trading conditions before bulls and bears finally sort it all out. We'll look at what develops overnight.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  9:27:28 AM
The 30 min cycle downphase is still in progress for QQQQ, but it's so far proving itself to be entirely corrective. Because of the impending daily cycle upturn, any failure to run QQQQ down hard this morning should see a new daily cycle upphase kick off. A move above 39.00-39.05 QQQQ should confirm it.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  9:26:15 AM
Pfizer (PFE) $25.30 .... higher at $25.66 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.58, which was a penny below consensus. Revenues were up 6.7% vs. same quarter a year ago.

  Jeff Bailey   1/19/200,  9:14:39 AM
Pre-market Most Actives .... ASTM +9.5% (Stem cells higher on possible state funding), YHOO +2.4% (earnings), LU -4.3% (earnings), SIRI -1.12%, STEM +3.33% (possible state funding for research)

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  8:40:21 AM
Session high for gold at 426.6.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  8:39:08 AM
Session high for QQQQ here at 38.77, along with a session high for 10 year treasuries, TNX -3.6 bps at 4.159%, just testing the top of 4.14%-4.16% confluence.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  8:33:18 AM
Building permits down .3% to 2.021M

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  8:32:19 AM
Housing starts +0.9% to 2.004M

Initial claims down 48K to 319K

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  8:31:10 AM
QQQQ up to unchanged on the news, TNX -2.3 bps to 4.172%.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  8:30:34 AM
CPI -.1%, core CPI +.2%

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  8:29:46 AM
My newsfeed is offline this AM. I'll be able to track down the data, but it won't be instantaneous as I usually try to do.

  Jonathan Levinson   1/19/200,  7:53:15 AM
Equities are lower, ES trading 1194, NQ 1573.5, YM 10608 and QQQQ -.05 at 38.67. Gold is up 1.90 at 425.40, silver +.075 to a session high of 6.733, ten year notes +9/64 to 112 3/64 and crude oil is down .275 to a session low of 48.10.

We await the 8:30 release of the Dec. CPI and core CPI, est. 0% and 0.2% respectively, initial claims, est. 345K, housing starts and building permits, est. 1.771M and 2.028M respectively, and at 2PM, the Fed Beige Book.

  Linda Piazza   1/19/200,  7:28:32 AM
Good morning. Asian techs could not hold onto early gains, and neither could the Nikkei. It closed lower, as did most other Asian markets. European markets almost all traded in positive territory as this report was begun, but many had turned negative by the time the report had concluded. Our futures have drifted sideways to slightly lower all night. As of 6:55 EST, gold was up $2.10, and crude, down $0.20. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Wednesday, the Nikkei gapped higher, buoyed by tech stocks after reports by U.S. tech companies. In early trading, Yahoo Japan gained after Yahoo’s Q4 profit beat expectations. Immediately, however, the Nikkei began coiling, breaking out of that coil to the downside during the afternoon session. The Nikkei closed down 17.92 points or 0.16%, at 11,405.34.

Tech and Internet-related stocks relinquished early gains. Yahoo Japan closed lower by 0.4% and Softbank Corp. lost 1%. Of importance to those watching the currency markets was an avowal by Bank of Japan's Governor Fukui that during next month's G-7 meeting, Japan will oppose any wording of the joint statement that suggests that Europe has unfairly absorbed dollar weakness and that Asian countries should absorb more. The yen fell against the dollar afterwards although much of that movement has been undone.

Other Asian markets were mixed, with more closing lower than higher. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.64%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.47%, with Samsung Electronics declining 1.2%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed, however, by 0.63%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng also gained, by 0.55%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.60%, closing less than two points above Monday's more-than-five-year low.

Although almost all European markets traded in the green as this report was begun, many had drifted into the red by the time the report was concluded. Techs had followed the early Asian pattern and gained after earnings from U.S. techs. ASML has not been joining in those gains, however, with the company suggesting that H1's gross margins might decline although Q4 profit and sales beat expectations. Auto manufacturers and airlines benefited from the easing of crude prices. A couple of European insurers garnered downgrades and fell, with those being German insurer Allianz and French insurer AGF. Downgrades were to hold ratings by Deutsche Bank and SG Securities, respectively. Telecoms were also in the news, with Deutsche Telekom the DAX's biggest gainer in early trading after a magazine speculated on its earnings and a separate report that it is probably not a bidder for Turk Telekom. France Telecom erased early losses to climb after it denied a newspaper report speculating on the company's readiness to bid for an Italian company. SAP was a company that went through with an acquisition, however, buying TomorrowNow. SAP eased. In other company-specific news, Credit Suisse First Boston upgraded staffing firm Adecco to an outperform rating and the stock was gaining.

As of 7:21 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 6.30 points or 0.13%, to trade at 4,830.20. The CAC 40 had lost 3.55 points or 0.09%, to trade at 3,871.47. The DAX had lost 6.51 points or 0.15%, to trade at 4,244.20.

  Tab Gilles   1/18/200,  1:16:57 AM
MUR-Murphy Oil ...On Tuesday I set an $81 stop as I became concerned with the 30 and 60 minute charts, although I'm still looking for $85 price objective. Jeff, also presented a swing trade with Feb $80 puts. Lets see how the earnings news after the close will affect trading for Wednesday.


I took some profits on the WHAAI (XLE LEAPS).

Here are some charts on MUR.



  OI Technical Staff   1/18/200,  10:41:30 PM
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