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OI Technical Staff : 1/26/2005 8:41:32 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived.. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

OI Technical Staff : 1/25/2005 10:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 7:49:08 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) alert $22.50 -0.53% Link ... hit lower to $21.00 in extended hours after .... Lexar Media (LEXR) $6.37 +5.28% Link , which fell to $4.37 in extended hours guided Q4 below consensus estimates.

SanDisk set to report after the close on Thursday (01/27/05). Consensus is $0.28 per share.

M-Systems Flash (FLSH) $20.11 +0.85% Link also down in sympathy at $19.35. On 01/13/05, company guided Q4 (December) higher and above $0.20, versus then consensus of $0.17.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 7:45:06 PM

Silicon Image (SIMG) $12.26 -13.29% Link ... stock got hammered to $10.63 earlier in session. May have been attributed to error in major newswire that initially reported "GAAP net loss was $324,000 million." The company reported a loss of $324,000.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 7:39:49 PM

The OEX closed Tuesday at the midpoint of its 6.5-point range. That's an equivocal ending. An ambiguous one. An unclear one. Add to that the fact that the OEX trades within a broadening formation visible on the 15-minute chart, testing the top trendline several times today before falling away, and within yet-another potential right-shoulder level for yet-another H&S on the daily chart, and the ambiguity grows. About all we can say about Tuesday's trading is that 557-ish support held and 563-ish resistance did, too. Actually on a daily closing basis, the 560.80-561.60 resistance held.

As I said near the close of the trading day Tuesday, nothing has been decided, in my opinion. The 15-minute Keltner chart shows that unless the OEX can maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 560.74 and preferably above the one currently at 561.76, it looks vulnerable down to 558.29, and perhaps even to 555.31, where Keltner support coincides with the support of the broadening formation. Fifteen-minute closes above 561.76 suggest that a higher target, 563.19-564.00 might be reached. Today, the OEX came within $0.21 of the Keltner upper target on this chart, so the Keltner lines here are showing some relevance.

Tomorrow might be particularly difficult to trade. I think we may have just had an oversold bounce today, one that met with selling when the institutional players came into the market near the close. That action reinforced my distrust of long plays right now while the OEX could just be building another right shoulder. I think the time is approaching when long plays will be right, but I'm just not sure that now is that time. I'm not sure that there's not a lower low in the making for the OEX, a low near 550-552. I'll watch carefully for the possibility that continued pushes up toward 562-563 might be opportunities for new bearish plays, but even here I'll be careful and may miss a play setup. Players need as much confirmation as possible while the OEX remains within that broadening formation. The very nature of that formation shows that stops keep getting run only to see the index immediately reverse. I wouldn't want to have just suggested entering a new bearish play when a new stop-run ensued. Breakouts above the 563-ish resistance might send the OEX all the way up toward 567-568, one appropriate level for the top of a right shoulder.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 6:58:08 PM

Energizer Holdings (ENR) $55.20 +14.76% Link ... it keeps going and going....

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 6:44:02 PM

DOV earnings = +0.48, est +0.52 miss

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 6:42:57 PM

Good Gosh! .... Oshkosh Truck (OSK) $70.41 +15.50% Link had a big day today after Q1 earnings surged 37%.

Yellow Roadway (YELL) $52.40 +2.72% Link looks cheap again. Reports earnings Thursday (01/27/05) after the close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 6:20:12 PM

March Crude futures (cl05h) $49.54 -0.20% ... updated conventional (BLUE) and bearish fitted 38.2% (PINK) at this Link

After tomorrow's EIA data, WEEKLY Pivot could well be the level of influence for broader equity market strength/weakness.

But today's culprit (in my opinion and early alert) was March Unleaded Gas (hu05h) $1.3547 -0.34% Link

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:59:47 PM

EXC earnings = +0.58, est +0.64

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:43:59 PM

Alert - GLW earnings = +0.12, est +0.12

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 4:42:42 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Closing Internals at this Link . Can note the reversal in the CRB Index (Oil as a component) and stalling of gains for equities.

Pivot Matrix at this Link

INDU/DIA and OEX get trade at WEEKLY Pivots, but rise in unleaded gas/oil caps gains. BIX.X still pinned around WEEKLY Pivot too, but if it can break free and higher, should unleash further buying, with INDU/DIA leading strength above DAILY R1/WEEKLY R1 correlations.

Support correlations at NDX/QQQQ Daily S2/WEEKLY S1 are observation of weakness, that could lead to further weakness if broken lower.

SPX WEEKLY S1/MONTHLY S2 provides the "balance" for support.

For the OEX it is "bull's will thrive above 555, but below 553 they're week in the knee.

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:34:53 PM

INSP up +5.25 in after hours after earnings

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:33:45 PM

PLXT earnings = -0.01, est -0.01

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:31:56 PM

SMDI earnings = +0.05, est +0.05

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:30:41 PM

Alert - TXN earnings = +0.28 , est +0.26 guiding inline

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:30:32 PM

PLXS earnings = +0.09, est +0.10

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:29:24 PM

PCLE earnings = +0.06, est +0.05

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:28:24 PM

ISSI earnings = -0.37, est -0.18 with charges

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:26:06 PM

INFA earnings = +0.06, est +0.04

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:24:40 PM

HYSL earnings = +0.50, est +0.42

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:20:45 PM

Alert - MCHP earnings = +0.25, est +0.25 raising dividend, guiding inline

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:18:12 PM

INSP guiding lower

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:17:23 PM

INSP earnings = +0.50, est +0.40 9 cent item drops it back to 41.

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:15:36 PM

CPWR earnings = +0.11 , est +0.06

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:15:28 PM

VTSS earnings = -0.04, est -0.04

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:15:09 PM

MTSC earnings = +0.40 , est +0.33

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:14:53 PM

COHR earnings = +0.17 , est +0.22 miss

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:14:38 PM

Alert - RFMD earnings = +0.02, est +0.01

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:14:20 PM

CTX earnings = +1.91 , est +1.88

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:14:06 PM

CA earnings = +0.19 , est +0.19

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:13:47 PM

Alert - FLEX earnings = +0.20, est +0.19

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:13:33 PM

NTIQ earnings = +0.08 , est +0.03

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:13:17 PM

CA guiding inline

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:12:54 PM

NTIQ guiding higher

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:12:40 PM

CYMI earnings = +0.22, est +0.10

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:12:25 PM

Alert - ERTS earnings = +1.23 , est +1.18

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:12:09 PM

Alert - KFT earnings = +0.49 , est +0.49

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:11:52 PM

SMTL earnings = +0.17 , est +0.16

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:11:34 PM

ERTS guiding inline

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:11:11 PM

Alert - STK earnings = +0.64, est +0.67

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 4:10:41 PM

SSNC earnings = +0.25, est +0.22

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 4:09:55 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ....

Early this morning closed out the three (3) long PFE March $25 puts (PFE-OE) at the bid of $1.15. ($+0.15, or 15%)

Later in the session closed out the three (3) short (bought them back) PFE Feb. $25 puts (PFE-NE) at the offer of $0.90. ($-0.30, or -33.33%).

Closed out the bearish swing trade puts for Adobe Systems and the two (2) ADBE Apr $55 puts (AEQ-PK) at the bid of $2.40. ($+0.60, or +33.33%)

Day traded long shares of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) at the offer of $6.29, but was stopped out at $6.29 after aggressive raising of stop as unleaded gas futures and oil found further bid. ($0.00, or 0.00%)

Day traded short shares of Southwest Air (LUV) at the bid of $14.33, stop $14.45, current target $14.11. Carried this trade overnight into tomorrow's weekly EIA data.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 4:03:24 PM

The OEX closed the day right at the midpoint of the day's range. How much more equivocal can you get than that?

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 4:00:55 PM

The 30 minute cycle for QQQQ upphase failed before reaching overbought territory and the downphase that launched this afternoon has yet to reach the midpoint of its run. This should provide a negative bias into tomorrow morning for QQQQ, provided that the price remains below 36.90. The key test from here will be the 36.45 level, with intervening support at 36.55. The daily cycle downphase remains in its trending, oversold move.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 3:51:37 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.55 +0.79% ... just off that $104.40 level.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 3:50:37 PM

The TRAN is at the neckline for the H&S on its 10-minute chart (see my 3:13 post for a chart), but hasn't yet broken through that neckline. It's trying to curl up instead, not too successfully as yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 3:49:22 PM

Bearish day trade update alert ... for Southwest Air (LUV) $14.24 +3.26% ... if stock doesn't hit bearish target of $14.11 before the close, will hold overnight.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 3:44:24 PM

New session low from QQQQ here below 36.70. The 30 min cycle upphase failed from a lower high, and the key on a daily cycle basis will be whether the downphase now in progress matches or exceeds the prior low at 36.45.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 3:41:49 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,168.03, QQQQ $36.70

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 3:41:30 PM

OEX still looking vulnerable to 558.39 unless there's a 15-minute close above 560.97, with that looking less likely as I type.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 3:36:14 PM

What's happened today. What should you do if you're in an OEX play? I wanted to post this early enough so that OEX traders could think through their end-of-day strategies.

I personally don't think anything has been decided. I think the OEX has zoomed around a bit within a broadening formation (see my 10:13 post for today's first look at this formation), with such formations known for their erratic trading behaviors; between support and resistance of a consolidation-type zone in place for a long time (see the chart linked to my 9:56 post); and between the support and resistance pointed out on the daily chart linked to my 9:46 post. Support hit yesterday held and produced the expected technical or oversold bounce. Resistance held, too. To me, the presence of that broadening formation signals danger, especially as it broadens further, and I'd personally be quick to take profits when offered. In any direction.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 3:33:38 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $41.67 -1.25% ... most active options are the Feb. $42.50 calls (NEM-BV) $0.75 (3,730:7,087) and Feb. $40 puts (NEM-NH) $0.40 (1,144:5,523).

Selling the calls and buying the puts?

June $40 puts (NEM-RH) $2.00 third-most active at (740:5,325)

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 3:30:22 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 201.31 -3.16% ... once again set up for test of psychological 200.00. The bugs look set to get flushed to 194.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 3:27:37 PM

Here's that broadening formation or a portion of it, with the Fib levels off today's range, showing how much importance those Fib levels have had today. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 3:23:55 PM

Crude oil has reopened for the evening session and is trading higher by 5 cents at 49.70.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 3:23:04 PM

Unless the OEX can get back above the Keltner line currently at 561.18 on 15-minute closes, it looks vulnerable to 558.38 and perhaps even to 555.36.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 3:22:51 PM

QQQQ is retesting confluence at 36.70, with a nominally lower low (by 1 cent) at 36.71. If this level breaks, there's light support at 36.55, followed by yesterday's low above 36.45.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 3:22:30 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/25/2005 3:20:16 PM

Now we have AD line making new daily lows, TRIN making new daily highs and the VIX is making higher highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 3:14:55 PM

Looks like a failure at 36.90 followed by a clothesline drop back to 36.80. The 7200 tick SMA held back the advance.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 3:13:32 PM

Potential H&S on the TRAN's 10-minute line chart: Link Note: By the time I got this chart uploaded, there was no apparent inclination of the MACD to flatten and turn up again.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 3:12:56 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

A/D lines did soften after crude energy prices moved higher.

Jim Brown : 1/25/2005 3:10:58 PM

Some of the earnings tonight
CA . est +0.19 - HYSL est +0.42 ET . est +0.22 - INFA est +0.04 CTX. est +1.88 - INSP est +0.40 DOV. est +0.52 - ISSI est -0.18 DST. est +0.65 - MCHP est +0.25 EXC. est +0.64 - MTSC est +0.33 FMC. est +0.83 - NTIQ est +0.03 GLW. est +0.12 - PCLE est +0.05 KFT. est +0.49 - PLXS est +0.10 STK. est +0.67 - PLXT est -0.01 TXN. est +0.26 - RFMD est +0.01 COHR est +0.22 - SMTL est +0.16 CPWR est +0.06 - SMDI est +0.05 CYMI est +0.10 - SSNC est +0.22 ERTS est +1.18 - VTSS est -0.04 FLEX est +0.19

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 3:10:29 PM

Ten year yields are closed for the day at 4.189%, +6.7 bps in a 1.63% move for the day. This poor showing for the ten year note fits well with the 8B 20 year TIPS auction, which generated a very weak 1.51 bid-to-cover ratio at a 2% yield (whcih represents a premium to the inflation-adjustment built into the bond). 3B of the 8B auctioned went to indirect bidders (ie foreign central banks).

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 3:09:11 PM

Running through some P&F charts, I note that the Nikkei has a downside target of 10,950. Ouch. The Nikkei closed at 11,276.91 last night. It's down sharply from its January 11 intraday high of 11,580.69. Just January 17, it saw an intraday high of 11,535.86. Its highest recent close was on January 11, when it closed at 11,539.99. The DAX, CAC and FTSE all are still on buy signals.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 3:03:29 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

It's a "tougher trade" after seeing oil on the rise. Will that be the negative to offset today's yield curve steepening?

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 3:01:39 PM

What's happening overnight that might impact our markets tomorrow? Last night, Germany's government lowered expectations for 2005's growth, the third time in nine months, I believe I read. The DAX bounced today, ending up 32.06 points or 0.76%, at 4,233.95. According to Stockcharts.com, that brought the DAX just a few points above its 50-dma after it closed below it Monday night. Tonight, Germany's IFO expectations will be released and the next day, Germany's Consumer Confidence number will be released. I'm wondering if there might be some nervousness ahead of that Consumer Confidence number. The DAX looks to be at an iffy spot, too, having bounced Monday from a rising trendline off the August low and essentially ending up last night sitting on the 50-dma, but still below the support of a bear flag that it broke below last Friday. In Japan, December's large retailers' sales will be released tonight, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 3:01:35 PM

Still no break of the 7200 tick SMA resistance, but the short cycle is ticking up from oversold. A break above 36.87 is the first sign of trouble for 30 min cycle bears, above which 36.90 is the number to beat.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 2:52:47 PM

Swing trade NAKED put close out alert ... I had "hoped" for a little stronger bounce in Pfizer (PFE) $24.67 +1.69% today so that I could close out the now naked PFE Feb. $25 puts (PFE-NE) at break even, get a little profit after closing out the long calls earlier this morning.

Let's CLOSE OUT/buy back these three (3) PFE Feb. $25 Puts (PFE-NE) at the offer of $0.90.

I'm still looking to re-establish new bearish position in PFE, but not willing to hold naked puts on this stock. Way too much FDA risk in my opinion.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:48:48 PM

In the chart linked to my 9:56 post, two horizontal blue lines marked a zone I characterized as a kind of consolidation zone. I noted that the OEX had tended to have erratic trading patterns within that zone. That chart was first annotated in November but I've had those lines on my chart forever, it seems. Can't even remember when I first put them there or exactly why. Today, the OEX spanned almost the entire distance of the zone between those two lines. It stopped its ascent right at the top line. Big investors have long memories and sometimes bands of S/R from years ago are a factor in the day-to-day trading. Zoom out sometimes for a long-term look.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 2:43:06 PM

Day trade stopped alert ... should be stopped out at breakeven ($6.29) on Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.27 +2.95%.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:35:34 PM

The OEX paused on the 38.2% retracement of today's range.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 2:35:26 PM

QQQQ is bouncing from just above the 36.70 confluence zone, current low 36.72. This bounce needs to clear 36.90 in order to qualify as anything more than corrective noise within the new 30 min cycle downphase.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:32:51 PM

A first fifteen-minute OEX close below 560.80, but Keltner support did slip lower, too, so that the OEX has not yet quite breached that support. It's at any iffy,iffy point. This is an appropriate right-shoulder level for the inverse H&S, but a true breach of that Keltner support shows the next support at 558.36 and the next support below that at 555.37, the exact site of the lower trendline for the broadening formation. Strange congruences occurring today.

James Brown : 1/25/2005 2:32:03 PM

Imperial Oil (IMO) just broke out over resistance at the $60.00 mark in the last few minutes. Volume appears to be above average on the rally.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 2:31:26 PM

My Charts are locked up, follow stops as outlined.

Pfizer (PFE) was starting to fade last I saw.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 2:30:10 PM

QQQQ is back to testing 4.195% resistance, currently up 7.2 bps at 4.194%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 2:29:30 PM

36.70 QQQQ is important support- here comes the test of the young 30 min cycle downphase.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 2:25:51 PM

Crude oil has marched higher here, up 1.64% at 49.60 now, 20 cents off the new high.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 2:24:29 PM

This dip has just cracked the noontime low of 36.82, now testing it from below. 30 min resistance is down to 37.05, support down to 36.77.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 2:23:07 PM

Bearish day trade short alert for Southwest Air (LUV) $14.33 at the bid, stop $14.45, target $14.11.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:22:09 PM

OEX 560.80 or so is an appropriate right-shoulder level for the inverse H&S the OEX is building, but bulls don't want fifteen-minute closes below that.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:21:09 PM

Next 15-minute Keltner support trying to firm near 560.80.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:20:39 PM

The OEX gaps below the support of its rising regression channel.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2005 2:19:42 PM

The TRIN has been slowly but steadily moving up albeit still within its neutral band. And just about the time the TRIN started moving up was when the AD line started another leg down.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:19:32 PM

The OEX slipped just a little below the support of its rising regression channel (see my 1:41 post), but it's popped back inside that channel again. Bulls want to see it stay there, or at least above 560.80 on a 15-minute closing basis. Below that, support thins dramatically on the 15-minute Keltner chart. All day today, that broadening formation has scared me on behalf of those in bullish positions. I said earlier today that I wouldn't be recommending those positions and I didn't, but I also noted at one point that if I had been in a bullish position, I would now be following the OEX higher and would have had profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 563-563.50. The OEX has so far stopped $0.21 shy of that profit-protecting level I mentioned. Because broadening formations are notoriously difficult to trade and because price movement often becomes more volatile and erratic just before the breakout, be particularly careful in bullish positions. It's not impossible that the OEX could zoom all the way down the way it came. Keltner charts don't yet suggest that as the strongest possibility, but they suggest that matters look a lot different with the OEX below 560.80 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 2:18:41 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.31 +3.61% ... to break even $6.29.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 2:17:11 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 2:16:47 PM

If bears can avoid a tick back above 39.91 for another 5-10 minutes, the 30 min cycle channel will roll over. To the downside, the prior low at 36.82 QQQQ is the 1st support to be broken.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:11:55 PM

News sources are reporting lots of comments about production quotas being maintained by OPEC members ahead of the OPEC meeting. With that OPEC meeting, Iraqi elections, and last week's cold snap in the Northeast, tomorrow's crude inventories might assume exaggerated importance. European and Asian markets have been reacting to jots up and down in the crude futures over the last couple of nights even if our markets sometimes seem immune to those movements. As I type, crude futures are at $49.48, and bulls need to factor the specter of $50.00 prices into their scenarios as they decide whether to hold overnight or not.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 2:10:42 PM

Alert - March Crude (cl05h) $49.30 +1% (30-minuted delayed) ... high of day/week.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 2:10:19 PM

Crude oil is up 1.33% to 49.45 here, off a high of 49.55. Gold is down 5 at 422.10 on strong volume of 1717 e-mini contracts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 2:06:52 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:04:45 PM

Here's what the OEX's fifteen-minute Keltner chart suggests. It shows support near 561.75 (on a fifteen-minute closing basis), with more support beneath that and cycling up to join that. Resistance is strongest near 563.25, also near the top of the broadening formation. For now, support looks strong enough to send the OEX back for a test of that resistance again, although it doesn't promise that it can break through that resistance. If the OEX were to show 15-minute closes below 560.80, however, that outlook changes drastically. Again, Keltner lines are lining up along the S/R zone that was already visible last night, lending that 560.80-561.60 zone more importance.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 2:03:50 PM

Alert - March Unleaded Gas (hu05h) 1.342 +1.79% (30-min delayed) ... high of day/week/month.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 2:03:33 PM

The net sideways drift of the past hour has QQQQ's 30 and 60 min channels flattened, also drifting sideways, with support 36.80 and resistance 37.10 for both cycles. QQQQ is huggin the 7200 tick SMA at 36.92, and the cycles will follow the break, either higher or lower, provided that it can hold for 10-20 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 2:01:07 PM

So far, nothing terrible has happened in this decline, as the OEX is just cycling down through its rising regression channel, but that regression channel support is at about 561.60 and bulls want to see that hold. Interesting that's also near the top of the 560.80-561.60 zone that I had identified today as potential resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 1:53:56 PM

QQQQ $36.94 +1.13% ... finds a lot of attention at this level today.

Just noting that this was WEEKLY S2 for week of 01/10-01/14.

Looking back at March 2004 bounce for any correlation/similarity in the WEEKLY Pivot Matrix.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 1:51:49 PM

That advdec line is strange today, and I bet Jane would agree. Dropping steeply off its high of the day, it then began rising about noon and has generally risen since then. If this were an equity, though, that rise would certainly look bear-flag-ish to me.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 1:41:45 PM

The OEX again pulls back from the top trendline of the broadening formation, this time without quite touching it. It's now formed a fairly regular rising regression channel today as it's been rising along the underside of that channel. Bulls don't want to see the OEX drop out of that regression channel. Here's the broadening formation and rising regression channel as seen on a five-minute rather than a 15-minute chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 1:38:00 PM

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,500.00 +1.30% ... not a bank in the bunch, but it and BIX.X right at DAILY R1s.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 1:35:09 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 367.64 +0.47% ... just challenged morning high of 368.06, but fades a bit.

5 to 30-year spread +0.02

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 1:31:46 PM

Adobe Systems (ADBE) $56.20 +1.46% ... session high has been $56.85. Not as strong as I would have thought earlier this morning.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 1:28:54 PM

Here's another look at a Keltner chart with the broadening formation superimposed: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 1:24:23 PM

Pogo Producing (PPP) $44.52 -5.27% Link ... oil/gas producer reported Q4 net income of $47.27 million, or $0.74 per share, compared to $55.09 million, or $0.87 in year-ago quarter.

Analysts were looking for company to earn $1.21 per share.

Company postponing the drilling of about 210 wells in 2005. Retained Goldman Sachs to advise on a possible sale or swap of its license holdings in Thailand and Hungary.

James Brown : 1/25/2005 1:23:58 PM

After 3 1/2 weeks of steady declines airline AAI is rebounding sharply up 12% to $8.41 following a better than expected earnings report. AAI's short-interest is about 13% of the float so it could see a short-term squeeze if bears panick.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 1:16:27 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.34 +4.0%(BLUE #2) to .... $6.23.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 1:16:27 PM

The new high of the day invalidates the potential H&S that had been setting up on the OEX's 10-minute chart, a possibility that was presented when the OEX refused to confirm that formation. However, it's rising again toward the top of the broadening formation. Bulls want to see that resistance cleared, too, to get the OEX out of that formation. Link Note that this top trendline is also the neckline for a potential inverse H&S. As we approach the stop-running time of day, be aware of the possibility of a candle shadow piercing that trendline in a stop-running move, only to see the candle fall back into the formation by the close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 1:12:46 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

James Brown : 1/25/2005 1:11:34 PM

Wow! Railroad NSC produced a big breakdown yesterday but shares are rebounding with a 5.5% bounce almost completely erasing Monday's decline. Shares are getting a boost from UBS who upgraded the stock to a "buy" this morning.

James Brown : 1/25/2005 1:10:01 PM

After a week of consolidating sideways near the $70 mark shares of Apple computer (AAPL) is springing higher with a 2.1% gain. Aggressive players might want to consider bullish positions with a stop loss under $69.00. The bullish P&F chart points to an $87 target.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 1:04:40 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

5 and 30-year YIELDS just about even now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 12:58:27 PM

Merck (MRK) $31.00 +3.82% ... high of day.

Pfizer (PFE) $24.65 +1.60% .... still off morning high of $24.72. Eat that premium in those Feb. $25 puts (PFE-NE). Do it fast!

James Brown : 1/25/2005 12:57:37 PM

KMRT is producing a sharp 3.4% rebound following yesterday's sharp decline/breakdown under support. Watch to see if KMRT produces a failed rally at the $90.00 mark.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:56:49 PM

The top, rising trendline of the OEX's broadening formation, perhaps best seen on its fifteen-minute chart, rises to meet 563.13 Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. The OEX needs to break above that Keltner resistance and that trendline, and not just touch them or pierce them and fall back, before it sets a new potential upside target, perhaps as high as 568.30. If it can't break out, though, it risks falling back through the broadening formation. As you know, that broadening formation scares me on behalf of the bulls. This is not a sign of stability and is notoriously difficult to trade while prices remain within the formation, as they are now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 12:56:36 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.80 +1.01% ... Dow quite strong today. Quick check of option chain has the Feb. $105 calls (DIA-BA) $1.25 most active (802:4,348). $105 + $1.25 = $106.25 is just about equivalent to its rounding lower 21-day SMA.

James Brown : 1/25/2005 12:56:01 PM

Jeff mentioned the bounce in ADBE earlier today. Fortunately the bounce is already fading from its highs of the session. We're still planning to exit at $55.00 although readers may want to jump out early if we get under $55.50 again.

James Brown : 1/25/2005 12:52:49 PM

Google (GOOG) is also under performing with a 1.5% decline and a breakdown under the $180.00 mark.

In the headlines GOOG announced plans today to allow users to use their search technology to find information and images from their television. GOOG began storing information last month from channels like ABC, PBS, Fox News and C-SPAN. (source: AP)

James Brown : 1/25/2005 12:49:21 PM

It's interesting to note that EBAY is not participating in today's market bounce. Shares are down another 1.8% to hit a new five-month low.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:48:54 PM

A new high of the day will of course invalidate the potential H&S at the top of the OEX's climb, something bulls would like to see happen. (The invalidation, that is.)

James Brown : 1/25/2005 12:46:44 PM

Phelps Dodge (PD) is bouncing sharply today with a 3.58% rally back above the $100.00 mark. Don't forget that earnings are expected on Thursday morning before the opening bell and we plan to close the play on Wednesday.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:43:42 PM

The OEX has flat-lined. The five-minute Keltner chart shows five-minute candles forming along the basis line for its central channel, with support and resistance looking equally weighted--an equilibrium state that will eventually be broken.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2005 12:42:29 PM

The TRIN is now making new daily highs but at 0.74 you can hardly call that bearish just less bullish than earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 12:37:35 PM

QQQQ is bouncing from declining 30 min channel support. 37.00 and 37.10 remain the levels to beat in order to restore the upphases on the intraday cycles.

I have to step away for an hour for an appointment.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:33:35 PM

The OEX is resisting confirming its H&S. So is the Dow.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 12:33:14 PM

Crude oil is up .075 at 48.875, off a high of 49.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 12:32:02 PM

Gold has also found support at 420.90, currently up to a 4.7 loss at 422.40. HUI is down 2.44% at 202.82, while silver is off its lows, -1.92% at 6.726.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 12:30:35 PM

Ten year treasuries are easing off a low of 112 23/64, with TNX currently up 6.3 bps at 4.185%. Look for intraday support at 4.18%, followed by 4.16%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 12:26:50 PM

Stepping out for about 15 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 12:25:20 PM

QQQQ is bouncing from channel support, but needs to clear the 36.98-37 confluence for at least 10 minutes in order to revive the 30 and 60 min channel upphases. Failing that, a new 30 min cycle downphase is in progress and the 60 min channel is rolling over. Upper 60 min channel resistance is at 37.10, while lower 30 min channel support (still declining) is currently at 36.77.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:22:37 PM

The SPX, TRAN and Nasdaq long ago confirmed similar H&S's (to the one displayed in my 12:18 post) and headed lower, but the OEX and Dow have resisted so far. We've seen some divergent behavior in the indices the last couple of days, as if new bulls were choosing OEX and Dow big caps for their buy-the-dips picks. If the OEX is going to maintain strength, however, it needs the cooperation of these other indices, too.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:18:09 PM

I switched to a 10-minute line chart so you could more easily see the potential H&S that's now building on top of the OEX's climb. Link As you can see, it's small in comparison to the size of the climb. Bulls would still rather not see it confirmed. Confirmation would come on a move below about 561.35.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 12:10:20 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:09:07 PM

The OEX has now entered the 560.80-561.60 level that I had identified as potential resistance and that might now serve as support. The five-minute Keltner chart shows the OEX now closing below the five-minute line that had formerly supported it, so that the outlook has changed somewhat. The OEX appears to be drifting down toward 560.72 or even 560.26, and will maintain that outlook until it begins showing five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 561.43.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:05:04 PM

The OEX's five-minute 21-ema is at 561.33. If the OEX closes the current five-minute period below that average, it will be the first close below it all day.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:04:13 PM

The TRAN so far finds resistance at its five-minute 21-ema, with that average at 3526.44.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2005 12:04:04 PM

I have never seen the AD line as bearish as it is and the TRIN just not reacting to it. AD line continues to plummet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 12:03:12 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/25/2005 12:00:49 PM

It doesn't matter how bearish the AD line gets if the TRIN doesn't participate then the markets will not make a big move. We need all three (AD line, TRIN and VIX) on board before we get the big moves.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 12:00:27 PM

The TRAN steadied ahead of 3500 and now rises to test the five-minute 21-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:59:33 AM

60 min channel support for QQQQ is at 36.84, but if QQQQ can't clear 37.00 within the next 10-15 minutes, that level (as well as the 36.88 30 min channel support level) will drop. A new downphase from here would stand a good chance of retesting yesterday's low, given the persistence of the trending daily cycle downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 11:59:02 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 366.87 +0.26% ... still pinned under its WEEKLY Pivot (367.65). I would think broader market equity bulls want to see the banks show some intra-day life above there. Looks well positioned for strength/bounce though.

Tab Gilles : 1/25/2005 11:56:26 AM

$USD/$EUR relation correlating closely with the $SPX... Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:55:54 AM

The ten year note yield is now testing 4.195% resistance, TNX + 7.2 bps at 4.194% currently.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 11:52:24 AM

Strong gains for dollar and Treasury selling. Supply/demand looks to have a lot of cash finding its way toward equities.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:50:35 AM

QQQQ is testing 36.88 support here, with the 30 min cycle channel just starting to roll over, channel support lined up with confluence at 36.88.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:44:53 AM

New session low for gold at 421.90, -5.2.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 11:44:34 AM

Always a sensitive indicator, the TRAN has decided to mimic the advdec line. It's beginning to break out of that flag-like formation and just plummet. This is a potential warning sign to bulls. It's still above the 38.2% retracement of today's climb and so hasn't done anything too bearish by levels alone, just by shape of the decline.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2005 11:44:26 AM

Trin is bullish but the AD line is plummeting.

Tab Gilles : 1/25/2005 11:44:22 AM

$SPX Link $VIX Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 11:42:24 AM

As Jane mentioned earlier on the Futures side, the advdec line's current direction is anything but reassuring to bulls. It's diving.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:40:29 AM

Here's the first break below the 7200 tick SMA line for QQQQ (currently 37.00) all day.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 11:40:12 AM

The OEX has resisted confirming the miniature H&S at the top of its climb today--a point in bulls' favor. It's climbed, which might look like another point in bulls' favor. It certainly does those long positions some good, although perhaps not too much if options values were pumped up too much at the open. However, it's climbing along the underside of the top trendline of the broadening formation, so this climb isn't as reassuring as it might be if the OEX had actually broken out of that formation to the topside. Bulls should continue efforts to protect profits.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 11:40:03 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:32:40 AM

The trending oversold daily cycle has not turned up despite the strength in QQQQ today. My estimation is that it will take a close above the 37.40 level to begin generating even preliminary buy signals in this daily cycle (2-3 week) timeframe.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2005 11:28:52 AM

Here is the comment from the STock Trader's Almanac about the December Low Indicator. Another negative indication has been added to the missing Santa Claus Rally and a down First Five Days. On Friday the Dow closed at 10392.99, below its December closing low of 10440.58, triggering the December Low Indicator. After breaching this low 26 times since 1950 the Dow has rallied 20 times, averaging 4.7%, before making a new low. Of these 26 occurrences the Dow dropped 10.7% on average and only once, in 1996, did it fail to drop further. The final arbiter will be our January Barometer which will likely finish on the downside. The S&P 500 is off 4.0% so far this January and market action shows no sign of improving. The Dow is down 3.8% and NASDAQ has fallen 7.7%.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 11:28:20 AM

The TRAN has begun a corrective-looking pullback from the day's high, a possible bull flag. Market bulls in the Dow and two S&P's want to see the TRAN hold above a 38.2% retracement off yesterday's low, at 3509.53 (very near the 100-ema on the daily chart) or at least above the 50% retracement at 3499.13 (a few points above the 38.2% retracement of the TRAN's climb off the August low). The want to see the TRAN pullback to continue in the shape of a flag rather than a steep plunge, and they want to see the TRAN break out of that flag to the upside before that 3499.13 mark.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:27:00 AM

Session low for ten year notes here at 112 23/64, TNX +5.4 bps at 4.176%. There's resistance at 4.18%, following which 4.195% and the big 4.2% line.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:24:40 AM

Ten year treasuries are holding their losses, barely budging at 4.169% (+4.7 bps), while QQQQ holds the 37.0 level, currently +1.34% at 37.02.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 11:22:06 AM

Bullish day trade entry point alert for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.29, stop $6.20, targeting $6.40-$6.44.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 11:17:20 AM

Stock Trader's Almanac note for Monday 01/31/2005. January 31 is historically one of two (July 14) best/bullish trading days of the year.

Iraq's elections still scheduled to be held on Sunday 01/30/2005.

March Crude Oil (cl05h) $48.55 -0.63% (30-min delayed)

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 11:13:28 AM

I mentioned last night and earlier this morning that if the OEX zoomed up, that potential long play was going to be a train leaving the station without my recommendation to jump on board. But what if I had jumped on board? Some of you did. What would I be doing now? I'd be following the OEX higher with my stops. The OEX is near one important resistance zone I had identified: 560.80-561.60. It's actually a little above that, but perhaps that zone can be stretched higher a little. Currently, the five-minute Keltner chart suggests a possible upside target of 563.55, but that's dependent on the OEX maintaining five-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 561.45 and or perhaps at least above the one at 560.87. With five-minute closes lower that that, the outlook might change. I'd have profit-protecting plans in place for 562.75-563.50, however, as I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX pierce the top broadening formation trendline to zoom up there, but then show a 15-minute close back below that trendline. Just guesswork. As I said earlier, I expect a hovering near this level and perhaps a flag-like climb along the bottom of that trendline, but I'm not certain what to expect after that. I'm afraid (for the sake of current bulls) that there might be a plunge at least partially down through that broadening formation again, but I don't have evidence to support that fear. It's just a fear based on the presence of that broadening formation. So far, Keltner evidence preserves the possibility of a climb toward 563.53.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 11:13:00 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:10:59 AM

The 30 min cycle oscillators for QQQQ continue north, only now clearing the midpoint of their range and suggesting an upward bias for the afternoon. This lines up with the ongoing uptick in the 30 min cycle channel with price bouncing from rising 7200-tick support. The 30 min cycle upphase launced fron a bullish divergent oscillator setup, and while resistance is strong from 37.10-.20, but the 30 min cycle bulls are well-positioned to challenge it.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 11:04:59 AM

I forgot to mention part of the "conflicting information" alluded to in the annotations on my chart linked to my 11:02 post. One of Jane's posts reminded me. There's a miniature potential H&S forming at the top of the climb, just under the top trendline of that broadening formation.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 11:03:01 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 11:02:59 AM

OEX five-minute Keltner chart, with the broadening formation superimposed: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 11:00:36 AM

Session low for gold here at 423.20, -.91% on volume of 687 emini contracts.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 10:56:59 AM

The OEX broadening formation I showed earlier: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 10:54:05 AM

QQQQ pulled back from 37.10 confluence resistance but is finding support at the 7200-tick SMA at 36.98. Bears need to see QQQQ below 36.88 before trusting a pullback.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 10:49:03 AM

So far this morning, the OEX has been finding support on pullbacks to a Keltner line on the five-minute chart, with that line currently at 561.40. Bulls want to see the OEX continue to show five-minute closes above that Keltner line.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 10:45:39 AM

Bullish day trade setup alert ... for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.26 +2.80%.

Go long with a trade at $6.29 (high of day), stop $6.20, target $6.40-$6.44.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 10:44:34 AM

The OEX is reaching, reaching toward the top of that broadening formation. Depending on how the top trendline is drawn and whether it lops off the candle shadow from yesterday's high (15-minute chart) or includes it, the OEX has either pierced that trendline and fallen back or else touched it and fallen back. To be safe, I'm going with the latter interpretation.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 10:39:55 AM

Bonds have gotten slammed as equities rose, with TNX up 4.7 bps at 4.149% currently, a 1.09% move for the day. The 4.14%-4.16% confluence is getting a lot of mileage this week. Gold has been hit as well, at a session low of 423.5, with HUI -1.55% at 204.66.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 10:38:43 AM

I know others have warned of this before, but I want to add my warnings. Always have hard stops set, even if they're set far away as "just in case" type stops. I've lost my trading platform this morning--not IB--and would be in a panic without those stops.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2005 10:35:19 AM

Internals are supporting this move higher. TRIN is in the range where you can look at the absolute number to take a reading and at 0.63 it is bullish. VIX is falling and AD line climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 10:32:10 AM

QQQQ has broken 37 resistance and is now testing the 37.10-.12 confluence, with channel resistance rising as I type, currently 37.13. 37.00 should now act as support, and the oversold 30 min cycle downphase has plenty of room to run from here. The bias is bullish above 37.00.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 10:28:28 AM

Adobe Systems (ADBE) $56.52 +2.04% ... updated chart with previously shown conventional and fitted retracement at this Link BLUE was a bullish fitted 38.2%, RED was a conventional, and PINK was a bearish fitted 38.2%.

Stock juuuust edged into first "zone of support" yesterday. Initial target was $55.00 for the previously profiled trade and wanted to see some follow through to downside today.

However... I've got a feeling that the "rally into Iraq elections" may be in initial stages.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 10:27:13 AM

That chart I posted at 10:13 scares me. Bulls need to see a real breakout above that top trendline of the broadening formation or risk a move down through the whole thing again. I'm not predicting that's what will happen, certainly not sure enough of it to suggest new bearish entries at this point, but only saying that the chart shows that the OEX is still just caught within an increasingly volatile chart pattern, with "breakouts" either direction not to be trusted until those trendlines are broken. The upper one is being tested as I type. I'm just cautioning that bulls not let winning positions turn into losing ones.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 10:26:26 AM

30 min channel resistance has advanced to 37.12 with QQQQ persisting just below 37.00. A break above 37.00 should target that upper band in short order. The short cycle oscillators are overbought and just starting to trend bullishly. Any weakness will have to break 36.88 as a minimum to rule out the potential for whipsaw.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 10:24:35 AM

Swing trade close out bearish put alert .... Adobe Systems (ADBE) $56.50 +1.95% ... Closing out the two (2) ADBE Apr $55 puts (AEQ-PG) at the bid of $2.40. ($+0.60, or +33.33%)

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 10:20:05 AM

Bulls, be sure you've made plans to protect profits this morning. We've now seen two 15-minute candles that are doji, the last a gravestone doji. This is occurring at the top of the rise, just below the upper trendline of a broadening formation, at Keltner and historical resistance. What I think may be happening is that the OEX is just going to consolidate near the top of the rise for a while, with Keltner charts suggesting that it might finish testing the 561.70 level after a while and eventually pull back toward 559.76 or so to recoup strength. There's the possibility of a piercing of that resistance, a move up to 563, too, with some difficulty in deciphering whether the pullback or the piercing would likely occur first. Bulls want that 559.50-560 level to hold as support. OEX 563 looks as if it's going to be tough to get past, though.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 10:15:04 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 10:14:10 AM

Phone call- back in 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 10:13:02 AM

The OEX is now facing 15-minute Keltner resistance in the same spot where historical resistance also shows up, a natural place for a pause in the advance. Something a bit more worrisome for bulls is occurring, however. It's also pausing near the top line of the possible broadening formation on its 15-minute chart. These are usually topping and not bottoming formation, although they occasionally serve that purpose, too, but they're always indicative of emotion-based trading. So, was this morning's move a real breakout or not? Link I'm not sure, and have posted several charts to show why I'm not sure. That's why I was willing to let this train pass by without recommending a long play for options traders. Volatility was going to be high this morning on entry and would quickly decay if the OEX paused at the top of its climb, and then there were spreads to consider . . .

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 10:11:26 AM

Bearish swing trade put place stop alert ... place a stop on the two (2) ADBE Apr. $55 puts (AEQ-PK) to close them out if the underlying shares of ADBE $56.12 +1.31% trade $56.50.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 10:07:19 AM

The TRAN is well above the 38.2% retracement of its rally off the August low, 3500 round-number resistance and the 100-ema. Market bulls want to see it sustain those levels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 10:06:23 AM

VIX.X 14.22 -2.93% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 13.98, 14.34, Piv= 14.53, 14.89, 15.08

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 10:04:03 AM


10:01am U.S. 2004 EXISTING HOME SALES UP 9.4% TO RECORD 6.675M

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 10:01:49 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 10:01:26 AM

Existing home sales 6.69M vs. 6.8M exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 10:00:57 AM

Con-con 103.4 vs. est. 101.3.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 9:56:45 AM

4 minutes to the New homes and consumer confidence data.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 9:56:38 AM

This is a chart you've seen before, too, and its markings were one of the reasons that I had been warning that 557 might be support. It's also one of the reasons that I feel that 562-562.75 might be next strongest resistance after 560.80-561.60. Note that the OEX has moved back into the zone marked out by the two horizontal blue lines. I consider that zone a sort of consolidation zone, between support and resistance, a zone in which trading might be difficult to gauge. When viewing the chart, note that the blue annotations were first made in November; the red, about two weeks ago: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 9:56:16 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced a 5.5B overnight repo to replace the 4B expiring from yesterday, for a net 1.5B add.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 9:46:57 AM

A daily chart you've been seeing, now pointing out some potential resistance levels to watch. Bulls should have profit protecting plans in place in the current zone, up to 562. Link (Note: Of course, it was yesterday, not "today" that the 557 support failed.)

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 9:46:07 AM

New session highs for QQQQ at 36.97 here- 30 min channel support is rising very steeply, up to 36.68 here. Look for 1st intraday support at 36.88, being the level of the last wavelet trending bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 9:45:48 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Close out the PFE Mar $25 Puts (PFE-OE) for $1.25. Then place intra-day protective stop on the PFE Feb. $25 Puts (PFE-NE) and will look for a PFE bounce

on Merck's (MRK) $30.59 +2.47% to eat away some PFE premiums, and then re-establish long put.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2005 9:42:28 AM

AD line is quite bullish this morning well above its previous day range. TRIN is below its neutral range so it is supporting the bullish AD line. VIX is falling supporting the other two.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 9:40:58 AM

QQQQ is behaving very bullishly here- looks and feels like an upside trending move above the 30 and 60 min cycle channels. The 37.00 test is just a nickel away here.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 9:39:13 AM

I don't know how many people are glued to their monitors in the evenings, and so how many might view the evening summary on the OEX, but I wanted to include two of the (too many?) paragraphs from last night's summary for those who might not have seen it. Obviously, this rise is of the explosive variety.

A warning to bears: Daily 9-period RSI measures 32.80, approaching but not yet in the sub-30 level that often marks swing lows for this oscillator. A warning to bulls: the RSI sometimes hits its swing low and starts higher again ahead of the OEX hitting its swing low. It leads, offering a warning, perhaps only that a period of consolidation is about to ensue, perhaps to be followed by one more dip lower before the actual rise. So bears should always be protecting profits but that doesn't mean that bulls should be assured that there's not a lower low in the making.

What if there's a bounce? We'll look at how the bounce proceeds--strong V-shaped recovery or corrective, zig-zagging bounce--and how internals look, watching the potential resistance levels above. We'll be watching for a potential rollover. If that relief rally explodes, however, bears don't want to get in the way. If the OEX had dropped to 550-552, I might feel more comfortable about a possible nibble at a long position, depending on how internals looked, but I still don't quite feel comfortable with one just yet. The train might get away from the station without me, but that's okay. Others will come by.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 9:36:30 AM

Bearish swing trade close out alert close out/sell the three (3) long PFE Mar $25 Puts (PFE-OE) at the bid of $1.25. ($+0.25, or +25%)

Then place a stop on the three (3) short PFE Feb $25 Puts at $1.25.

Pfizer (PFE) $24.42 +0.70%.

Note: I would NOT want to be NAKED put on Pfizer overnight, and will look to re-establish a covered put position prior to today's close.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 9:35:22 AM

The TRAN climbs today, too, soon to be facing the 3492.37 level that's the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the August low and the 100-ema at 3509. The TRAN is at 3487.41 as I type. If a rally is going to carry far, the TRAN has to be able to get past that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 9:33:33 AM

The OEX is charging right up to the five-minute 100/130-ema's, at 559.25 and 559.59. No sign yet of a corrective move.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 9:33:28 AM

QQQQ is pushing above upper 30 and 60 min Keltner channel resistance, the first sign of a trending move. The bulls need to just hold this ground for another few minutes- confirmation of the new upphase will come on a break of 37.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 9:29:51 AM

Futures are higher this morning, so I'll be watching internals and also to see how the bounce looks--explosive or corrective--to determine whether it's best to look for a possible rollover point or just stand aside while aggressive bulls enjoy a move that might be a countertrend one.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 9:24:08 AM

The bounce has QQQQ holding right on upper 30 min channel resistance. This would be a perfect gap n crap setup except that the 30 min cycle is oversold. If bulls can hold at or above current levels for the first 10 minutes of the cash session, the 30 min cycle upphase will kick off. If not, look for support at yesterday's 36.70 resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 9:22:34 AM

Pre-market most actives .... ASTM $3.59 +11%, SIRI $6.23 +2%, CSCO $17.91 +1%, NFLX $12.90 +13%, EMC $12.36 -4%

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2005 9:15:52 AM

Buy/Sell Program Premium Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.80 and set for program selling at $-0.32.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 8:46:48 AM

Ten year bonds, CAD futures and gold continue lower as QQQQ holds its gains, now up .29 at 36.82. It appears that the dollar is trading against bonds and with equities this morning. Please note, once again, that equities are oversold on all timeframes out to daily, and that a corrective bounce is overdue.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2005 7:46:40 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1170.75, NQ 1498.5, YM 10420 and QQQQ +.28 at 36.81. Gold is down to a session low of 425.60, crude oil is flat at 48.80 and ten year notes are down .0781 to 112 9/32.

We await the 10AM releases of existing home sales, est. 6.8M, and consumer confidence, est. 101.3.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2005 7:05:16 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei declined Tuesday, but did close well off its low of the day. Other Asian markets were mixed, but European markets turn higher this morning. The German government has lowered estimates for 2005's economic growth, and China last night reported 2004 growth that was higher than expected. Our futures traded in a straight line from the close until near the European open, when they turned higher. As of 6:39 EST, gold was down $0.50, and crude, down $0.10 to $48.71. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped lower Tuesday morning and had soon moved down toward Monday's low, erasing the hard-won gains from Monday. Chip-related stocks turned lower in Japan, as they did across Asia. NEC's and Hitachi's joint venture Elpida Memory trimmed both sales and profit forecasts for the year. Tokyo Electron and Advantest were among the declining stocks. The Nikkei climbed through most of the afternoon, however, and managed a close only 12.58 points or 0.11% lower, at 11,276.91.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.20%, but South Korea's Kospi lost 0.87%. In South Korea, LG. Philips LCD plummeted 6.3% after Monday's report of Q4 net income lower than the year-ago level. The company cited declining prices for LCD panels. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.41%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.47%. China's GDP grew 9.5% in 2004, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced last night. That's the fastest growth since 1996, according to a Bloomberg article, beating expectations and thereby disappointing. Hopes had been that the government's efforts to cool the sizzling economy would have cooled it a little more than that. The government's goal this year is to slow that growth to 8%. The Shanghai Composite dropped 0.12%, well off the day's low, however.

Most European markets turn higher after several days of losses. This happens despite the German government's lowering of estimates for that country's 2005 economic growth. Exports did not increase as much as expected. This is the third time those estimates have been lowered.

The easing in oil prices allowed car makers and airlines to drift higher, but chipmakers have been as weak in Europe as they had been in Asia. Drug makers are mixed, reacting to news and ahead of earnings. Schering and Novartis will co-promote a new oncology drug, Danish company Novo-Nordisk was upgraded, and Sanofi-Aventis will report earnings later in the day but has already announced that another company has challenged one of its patents. The FTSE benefited from a rise in insurer Aviva after its earnings report. Also in the U.K., Cable & Wireless reported that its drop in revenue was not as big a drop as expected. Homebuilders suffered from Bank of England member Barker's pronouncements on the housing industry yesterday.

As of 6:39 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 11.70 points or 0.24%, to 4,824.20. The CAC 40 was higher by 15.04 points or 0.39%, at 3,863.75. The DAX had climbed 7.81 points or 0.19%, to 4,209.70.

OI Technical Staff : 1/25/2005 3:37:22 AM

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