Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 1:19:59 AM

March Crude (cl05h) down $0.12 at $48.72.
e-mini S&P (es05h) up $1.50 at 1,176.25.
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) up 0.20 at 83.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 11:12:34 PM

Program trading levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.05 and set for program selling at $-0.40.

OI Technical Staff : 1/27/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 7:49:10 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link SOX.X first equity-based sector to get a trade at WEEKLY R1. Bears likely doing the bulk of the buying at this point after test of WEEKLY S1, then violation back up through WEEKLY Pivot. For the SPX high note tomorrow's DAILY R2, only because of 12:49:53 post from earlier today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 5:55:09 PM

Broadcom (BRCM) $32.37 ... slipped to $31.35.

might have had some short-term bulls in Extreme (EXTR) $6.37 +0.63% ... letting some stock go at $6.32.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 5:58:03 PM

SNDK ... dipped to $24.49 on Jim's 05:25:31, then bids back to $25.62.

If I still were long the Apr. $22.50 call, I'd be shorting 100 shares in extended session (get trader neutral, use your call as an overnight hedge on short), then wait for tomorrow's opening response, using your trade observation of EXTR as tomorrow's guide. Should get some jacked up call premiums at the open.

There are a lot of bears wondering how things were so positive at the bottom line.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 5:25:31 PM

SNDK guiding lower on sales for current quarter

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 5:12:50 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $84.50 +0.21% ... jumping to $86.68 in extended session. Hits a deepwater well off the shores of Republic of Congo, which the company said could contain more than 100 million barrels of oil. Murphy has an 85% working interest.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 5:06:48 PM

MSTR earnings = +1.43, est +0.88 huge beat if clean number

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 5:02:10 PM

SWK earnings = +0.77, est +0.72 revenue light, guiding lower

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 5:01:25 PM

CHRT earnings = -0.11, esst -0.19

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 5:00:02 PM

BRCM guiding flat

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:56:55 PM

MSFT corrected earnings after all charges for compensation is now +0.36 compared to estimates of +0.33. It was a BEAT after all.

Keene Little : 1/27/2005 5:01:11 PM

I know you don't follow the Qs per se, but I have 2,000 shares that I write calls on every month..sort of my supplement to retirement. What do you see as the bottom? Most significantly, if you owned the shares..what would you do?

As you know we can't offer personal investment advice since we're an educational site, but I can offer my view of the market. Since I don't follow the Q's I can offer a longer term view on the NDX chart. I prefer an Elliott Wave perspective and the labels on this daily chart reflect my best guess as to where we are. Most importantly though will be to see how well the NDX is supported by its 200-dma's and the downtrend line from the January 2004 high. These coincide around 1475 which would equate to about 36.00 on the Q's.

From an EW standpoint I would want to see that 1475 level hold in order to maintain the possibility that the January pullback will lead to a rally to a new annual high. If it breaks below 1474.36 is raises the probability that the January 3rd high will mark the high for the year. At the very least though I would expect this 1475 area to provide support to a much larger rally to correct the January decline. The form of the rally (impulsive or corrective) will then give me some clues as to whether we have a decent chance at a new high, or just a 38-62% retracement before it heads lower again.

So the bottom line for me, if I owned the shares, is that I'd hold but have my stop just below 36.00. And then on the next bounce I'd look to lighten up my position, go to all cash, sell calls and use some of the premium to buy some insurance (puts), or a combination of all the above. I think this year is going to be a risky year to be long the stock market. JMHO. Link

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:54:07 PM

Alert - GTW earnings = +023. , est +0.03 After charges a loss of -0.02. Very confusing release. Guiding lower

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:51:19 PM

Alert - NVLS guiding strongly higher on conference call.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:46:16 PM

Alert - PG earnings = +0.74, est +0.72 Was supposed to report tomorrow

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:39:51 PM

ADPT earnings = +0.17, est +0.17 inline

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:39:18 PM

SNDK up +4 after earnings

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:38:58 PM

STXN earnings = -0.08 , est -0.07

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:38:23 PM

SLNK earnings = +0.20, est +0.18

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 4:37:46 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) ... higher now at $26.30.

Dow Diamonds (DIA) printing $104.70 after 04:15 close of $104.57.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:37:45 PM

PKTR earnings = +0.14, est +0.11

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:37:02 PM

Alert - NVLS earnings = +0.27, est +0.24

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:36:29 PM

NEWP earnings = +0.09 , est +0.09

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:35:33 PM

MSCC earnings = +0.14, est +0.14

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:34:42 PM

MENT earnings = +0.39, est +0.38

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:33:23 PM

LOOK earnings = -0.01, est -0.01

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:31:40 PM

PWAV earnings = +0.07, est +0.07

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:30:53 PM

IRF earnings = +0.62 , est +0.58 revenue light

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:30:21 PM

LTBG earnings = -0.34, est -0.05 includes charges

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 5:01:50 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $22.25 +3.72% .... surging to $26.20 in extended session.

BIG Beat ... $0.42 vs. consensus of $0.27.

Trader's note: I closed out the remaining 1 long call in SNDK today. But, traders that will remember last Thursday's trade action in EXTR (simply from response to BIG Beat) should have at least one good test for tomorrow's action.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:29:07 PM

OSTK down -7 after earnings

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:28:40 PM

KRON earnings = +0.33, est +0.28

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:27:50 PM

NSIT earnings = +0.62, est +0.31

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:26:57 PM

GILD earnings = +0.24, est +0.23

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:26:32 PM

Alert - SEBL earnings = +0.10, est +0.08

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 4:25:51 PM

Yellow Roadway (YELL) $53.19 +2.24% ... higher at $54.50 after reporting Q4 profit of $1.24 per share.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:25:41 PM

VSEA earnings = +0.30, est +0.36 MISS

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:25:06 PM

Alert - FDRY earnings = +0.12 , est +0.12

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:24:46 PM

VRTS earnings = +0.30, est +0.25 guiding higher

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:23:24 PM

ASPT earnings = +0.19, est +0.13

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 4:22:42 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.11 +0.38% ... $26.00 in after-hours.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:22:19 PM

MCK earnings = +0.49, est +0.45

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:17:41 PM

Alert - MSFT guiding 27-28 cents, est was for 32 cents for Q1. Unclear if it is clean guidance

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:13:58 PM

IWOV earnings = +0.07, est +0.05

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 4:12:22 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $117.41, DIA $104.55

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:12:21 PM

Alert - MSFT earnings = +0.32 headline, est +0.33 MISS Checking for items

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:10:46 PM

GYI earnings = +0.46, est +0.43

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 4:24:10 PM

Naked Put option fill alert for the DIA Feb. $103 puts (DIA-NY) .... seeing trades at $0.65, so filled at $0.60.

DIA $104.60

Will add/update 04:21:32 post in a minute.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 4:56:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's activity ....

Closed out the one (1) long call and the SNDK Apr. $22.50 call (SWQ-DX) at the bid of $2.35. ($-1.85, or -44.05%).

Bearish swing trade put Corning (GLW) and bought 1/2 bearish, five (5) of the GLW Aug. $10 puts (GLW-TB) at the offer of $0.60.

Bullish swing trade NAKED PUT for the Dow Diamonds (DIA) and sold five (5) of the out the money DIA Feb. $103 puts (DIA-NY) at $0.60.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:08:43 PM

RHI earnings = +0.28 , est +0.26

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:08:23 PM

Alert - SANM earnings = +0.09, est +0.10 guiding lower

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:07:42 PM

Alert - PXLW earnings = +0.09, est +0.06

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:07:00 PM

Alert - OPWV earnings = +0.07, est +0.04

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:06:25 PM

Alert - BRCM earnings = +0.23 , est +0.22

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:06:20 PM

Alert - OSTK earnings = +0.12 , est +0.08

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:05:59 PM

CTXS earnings = +0.29, est +0.27


Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:05:32 PM

Alert - PMCS earnings = +0.01, est +0.01

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:04:18 PM

CLS earnings = +0.19, est +0.15

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:03:18 PM

Alert - SNDK earnings = +0.42 , est +0.27

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 4:02:57 PM

RHI earnings = +0.28 , est +0.26

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 4:01:17 PM

30 min channel support is up to 37.00 here, with QQQQ now back to 37.10. This 36.90-37.30 range has been a blender today.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:59:41 PM

Note the OEX chart linked to my 1:14 post. The OEX still ends the day with the candle body below that rising trendline, that likely resistance. Today's candle was a long-legged doji or near-doji. Again, sure the OEX is still climbing, but it's still finding resistance at the same line. I acknowledge the possibility that it can continue to move higher, but nothing has shown me that this isn't a technical or oversold bounce, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:58:08 PM

Completely off topic: remember that old commerical that our Fed chairman did for Apple? A blast from the past (Realvideo) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:57:37 PM

some selling of the DIA Feb. $103 puts at bids of $0.55 (10) and $0.50 (25).

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:54:41 PM

Remember that we have advance Q4 GDP, Employment Cost Index and Chain Deflator tomorrow morning at 8:30.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:51:33 PM

Yellow Roadway (YELL) $53.35 +2.55% ... earnings after the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:50:39 PM

VIX.X 13.10

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:50:30 PM

Make a decision soon as to whether you'll hold overnight with MSFT earnings after the close. If I were long, I think I'd book at least partial profits, but then you know how skeptical I've been of this bounce. Temper this advice with that knowledge. I fully acknowledge the possibility that a confirmation of the inverse H&S on the OEX's 30-minute chart and sustained prices above the 30-minute 100/130-ema's could see a move up to 566-568, but I can tell you that I'm not going to trust this bounce until it's violated the appropriate right-shoulder level for the bigger H&S I've been pinpointing on the daily chart. This could be the beginning of a big move, but if it is, there's plenty of time to jump on board after it's proven itself.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:50:03 PM

TRIN 0.90

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:49:04 PM

Sorry everyone for my futures postings on the regular monitor. I'm not going to change it, as it would time stamp it differently. Some postings were relevant, like EBAY and MSFT, which is why I got my posting mixed up in the heat of the battle.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:46:50 PM

QQQQ's 30 min channel resistance line has risen back to 37.23. The 30 min cycle oscillators are whipsawing up on a premature end to the downphase that kicked off at noon. This is a strange move, cyclewise, coming as it did on a support break (both on the intraday and on the 30 min chart), and aborting the young 30 min cycle downphase- one which had launched from a clean bearish divergence to boot. Bulls need a break above 39.29 to firm up the reversal, and above 37.40, look for daily cycle buy signals as well.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:44:34 PM

Bid comes up to $0.55 on the DIA Feb. $103 puts.

DIA $104.60

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:42:35 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $22.40 +4.42% ... little bugger got wild today. Dipped to $21.91 into 02:00, then swing back to a session high of $22.71 by 02:20 PM ESt.

Don't have a clue as to response to earnings. Maybe why stock jumped back to $22.50.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:41:43 PM

It's a little out of prportion, but the Nasdaq's 30-minute chart shows a potential H&S forming just at/under the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, head at the day's high, neckline at about 2036.80. A new high of the day would invalidate it.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:40:05 PM

I am, Linda. Very.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:39:57 PM

EBAY has fallen back below 82.77, the 38%. Looks like it has more downside.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:38:17 PM

Anybody getting dizzy?

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:37:49 PM

I realize I posted my futures trades on the wrong side. Adjusting.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:35:51 PM

COMP 2050 locking things.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:35:18 PM

The lack of significant pullback has the 30 min and 60 min channels both turning back up, again. Price is sitting right on resistance. Bulls want to see a break above 37.29 to rule out the possibility that this is yet another whipsaw.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:37:07 PM

Swing trade sell naked puts alert ... for the Dow Diamonds and five (5) of the DIA Feb. $103 puts (DIA-NY) at $0.60 LIMIT.

DIA $104.70 here, probably need $104.50-0.40 to get a fill.

I've got bid/ask at $0.50 x $0.65.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:33:54 PM

The Nasdaq is back at its 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 2050.20 and 2056.62, respectively.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:32:42 PM

Jeff, looks like YM still has steam. 10566 is key.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:31:54 PM

Here we go again: for reference, the OEX's 30-minute 100/130-ema's are located at 562.48 and 563.09, and the neckline for its inverse H&S is at about 563.54 or so.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2005 3:31:05 PM

TRIN made a 5 minute triple top at 1.10 and each top was made at the same time as VIX's triple tops at 13.40.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:29:50 PM

If YM breaks 10466, I will wish I didn't bail early. MSFT above 26.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:26:34 PM

QQQQ is lurching higher, currently exceeding both 30 and 60 min upper channel resistance. Volume is running higher, but without any sharp spikes- this is a relatively light volume move compared to the buy programs QQQQ has been seeing throughout the day.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:26:17 PM

Kind'a with you Marc, but looking at those DIA Feb. $103 puts as a naked seller.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:30:18 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.45 -0.32% ... snaps back from $104.21.
Most actives DIA Feb. 106 calls $0.50 (566:7,080), Feb. 104 puts $1.05 (470:8,293), Feb. 105 puts $1.60 (424:7,288)

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:24:24 PM

YM Trade Entry Point Alert -
Long 10450, stop 10439.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:23:14 PM

As I mentioned in my 2:57 post, the OEX turned down again today from its 30-minute 100/130-ema's, but it would have been difficult to profit from an options play unless one was disciplined enough to cash out at the bottom of the range the OEX has been establishing intraday (roughly 560.30-563.60).

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:22:05 PM

TRIN 0.99 -11.60% .... won't come back under DAILY Pivot at this point

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:22:02 PM

If MSFT releases between 4:15 and 4:30, just when NQ and ES are closed, you might want to be in YM, which closes at 5.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:21:33 PM

VIX.X alert 13.23 -1.56% ... quick reversal lower

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:20:29 PM

Shorts are now going to get a little worried. Oversold and MSFT coming up.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:19:09 PM

They scared me out of the NQ long, but I took a YM at that 20 weekly and so far so good.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:16:35 PM

Amazing downside headfake followed by an upside bottle rocket on so-far light volume, testing 37.05 resistance now.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:16:27 PM

YOu took a long at DOW 10435, you are cranking. That was key support and they bought it.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:13:50 PM

Bouncing back above the line here. 37.00 is the immediate upside resistance for bulls to break.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:13:58 PM

DOW is resting on 20 weekly EMA (10435). Looks like that is supporting the entire stock market right now.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:12:26 PM

QQQQ cracked the rising support line, bounced back to the line and has stopped dead at 36.92. Time for Mohammed Ali to glare at it and watch it fall?

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:12:24 PM

Either someone knows something (MSFT) or we are going to get some type of short covering ahead of the earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:10:33 PM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX.X 1,170.17, QQQQ $36.91, DIA $104.23

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:09:00 PM

Now there's a new low of the day on the OEX, although only minimally. Watch for a bounce from a potential double-bottom level . . . nope, dropping deeper as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:07:45 PM

Here's another test of the trendline after a failure from a lower bounce below 37.00 QQQQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 3:06:21 PM

There are just no buyers. It's all short covering on the upside ticks.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 3:13:18 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 3:02:50 PM

Another bounce off the rising trendline: Link

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:01:27 PM

SOX still above 400.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 3:01:03 PM

ETP announcing a 2:1 stock spit

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 3:00:22 PM

Oops. That wasn't a new LOD. Forgot about the first low, a few minutes after the open. The OEX came within 7 cents of that 560.31 LOD.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 2:59:54 PM

March Crude (cl05h) settled up $0.06 at $48.84.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 2:59:24 PM

DOW testing 20 weekly ma again. Critical.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 2:59:23 PM

New LOD for the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 2:55:14 PM

QQQQ's coming in for another test of trendline support here. 30 min channel support is down at 36.85, 2 cents below the session low. The 60 min cycle channel is in sync to the downside for a change- maybe we'll even get a range break.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 2:54:59 PM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX.X 1,171.51, QQQQ $36.97, DIA $104.27

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 2:57:12 PM

The OEX broke down out of the latest bear flag, but hasn't yet confirmed by moving to a new low of the day. Once again, selling tests of the 30-minute 100/130-ema would have resulted in a move in the right direction, but how profitable would it have been? Unless one had been absolutely committed to exiting the play at the bottom of the intraday trading range, perhaps that play would not have been very profitable, depending on what happens next. And when the OEX dived right to the bottom of that range, who isn't going to think that they'll hold on just a little bit longer and see what happens? It's just too tempting for all but the most disciplined. Jane maybe could do it. What I would have done is reset my stop to breakeven while I watched, only to be most likely stopped at breakeven instead of for a profit.

OEX testing the day's low again.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 2:44:36 PM

Over 70 companies report earnings tonight. I tried to restrict this list to only the ones that could impact the market. Semiconductors are out in force today.
CLS. est +0.15 - MENT est +0.38 CTS. est +0.16 - MSCC est +0.14 FMC. est +0.83 - MSFT est +0.33 GTW. est +0.03 - MSTR est +0.88 IRF. est +0.58 - NEWP est +0.09 MCK. est +0.45 - NVLS est +0.24 RHI. est +0.26 - OPWV est +0.04 SWK. est +0.72 - OSIS est +0.19 ASPT est +0.13 - OSTK est +0.08 BRCM est +0.22 - PKTR est +0.11 CHRT est -0.19 - PSEM est -0.01 CTXS est +0.27 - PXLW est +0.06 FISV est +0.49 - PMCS est +0.01 FDRY est +0.12 - PWAV est +0.07 GILD est +0.23 - SNDK est +0.27 NSIT est +0.31 - SANM est +0.10 IWOV est +0.05 - SEBL est +0.08 KRON est +0.28 - SLNK est +0.18 LTBG est -0.05 - STXN est -0.07 LOOK est -0.01 - VSEA est +0.36

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 2:42:33 PM

QQQQ update at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 2:41:45 PM

NQ Trade Exit Point Alert -
Exit now, 1505 +0.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 2:39:51 PM

The current OEX rise looks a lot like a potential bear flag rising into resistance. Watch the 38.2% retracement of the steep decline off the last two-minute high and the 50% retracement, at 561.59 and 561.94, respectively, for potential resistance.

James Brown : 1/27/2005 2:39:31 PM

Dow-component UTX is bucking the downtrend in the index with a 1.65% gain. Shares are nearing resistance at $102.50 and look ready to breakout from its two-week trading range. The MACD indicator is nearing a new buy signal.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 2:36:55 PM

QQQQ is bouncing from rising trendline support connecting the lows of the past 2 days. 30 min channel resistance is at 37.10, but the first hurdle for bulls will be the 7200-tick SMA at 37.03. A failure there will strength the ongoing intraday downphases.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 2:34:47 PM

One little push above NQ 1507 and shorts will scamper.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 2:32:17 PM

TRIN.NQ is dropping. Stealth rally coming. (I hope).

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 2:30:23 PM

Nymex closed. Let's see what bulls have.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 2:29:42 PM

The OEX appears to have confirmed an inverse H&S on the two-minute chart a little less than ten minutes ago. It's not really zooming up after the upside breakout, though, making the break above the neckline suspect . . . there it goes, back to the neckline to test it again.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 2:28:00 PM

Disappointing earnings from NEC and more bad news from SONY and Phillips have not had much impact on tech stocks today. NEC saw profits fall -39% for the quarter and cut profit forecasts for the second time this year. NEC joined the ranks of the distressed after Phillips saw a -94% drop in profits for the quarter and Sony cut its profit targets for the year by -31% and saw profits drop -13% for the quarter. NEC SVP said a sharp deterioration in mobile phone business and semiconductors caused the drop. NEC said a semiconductor recovery was now likely around the middle of 2005 instead of the beginning as previously predicted. Sony also saw a -36.8% drop in profits from video games saying Play Station 2 sales were dropping despite a price cut.

James Brown : 1/27/2005 2:27:09 PM

Investors are not happy with UPS. The company reported inline this morning and shares have fallen another 3% to breakdown from its recent two-week trading range. This morning the stock fell to $72.00, which happened to be the 84.1% Fibonnaci retracement of its August-December rally. Currently, UPS is bouncing from is lows and is trading above the simple 200-dma. Volume is more than three times the norm on today's decline.

Jim Brown : 1/27/2005 2:23:44 PM

VRSN - Forbes is recommending a buy today on VRSN saying the drop is over done. They claim the earning were very good despite a slightl miss on the revenue side by the Jamba unit. VRSN earned +43 cents a share compared to a loss of -13 cents in the same quarter last year.

James Brown : 1/27/2005 2:22:16 PM

Uranium-miner Cameco (CCJ) is down 2.3% after reporting earnings of 21 cents per share and being downgraded to sector perform by CIBC this morning. Yet the stock is bouncing significantly from its lows of the session off consistent, rising support at its 50-dma.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 2:21:30 PM

March Crude (cl05h) $49.15 +0.75% (30-min delayed) ... just noting its DAILY Pivot at $48.79.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 2:20:42 PM

VIX.X 13.33 -0.81% ... just tested DAILY Pivot from underneath.

You can feel/observe the tension in the pivot matrix.

James Brown : 1/27/2005 2:17:39 PM

Ouch! Sierra Wireless (SWIR) is down 37% to $9.07 after reporting earnings last night that missed by a penny and guiding lower for Q1. A number of brokers downgraded the stock today. The P&F chart points to a $6.00 target but I would wait to see if there is any sort of dead-cat bounce tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 2:17:08 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,171.45, QQQQ $36.95, DIA $104.30

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 2:13:51 PM

The OEX's Keltner chart shows it in an equilibrium position, trading mostly within a channel that currently spans from 560.90 to 563.35. I see Keltner resistance just ahead, but as I mentioned yesterday, when channels settle into an equilibrium position, the OEX often moves easily across converging lines at the central channel level. It just bumps from one side another of the mid-sized channel.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 2:10:10 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.31 -0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 2:09:24 PM

TRIN 0.96 -14.28% ... back below 1.0. Don't remember it doing this yesterday after rising above 1.0.

Got an aler set back lower at DAILY Pivot

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 2:08:08 PM

NDX 1500. Last stand.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 2:06:45 PM

DOW held, QM dropping, I have to take it.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2005 2:06:25 PM

The TRIN is now in an uptrend and making new daily highs but that new daily high was only 1.10 - that is not bearish! But to support the bearish picture the VIX has bottomed and is climbing also while the AD line is falling. Internals are more bearish than they were this morning but still not too bad.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 2:06:01 PM

NQ Trade Entry Point Alert -
Long 1505, stop 1502.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 2:16:14 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

02:00 Internals at this Link

James Brown : 1/27/2005 2:01:16 PM

After three months of rocky gains shares of Build-A-Bear (BBW) are shooting lower (-12.8%) in a high-volume breakdown. The company issued a 2005 profit warning this morning.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:59:30 PM

DOW must hold above 10434 (20 weekly ema).

James Brown : 1/27/2005 1:57:59 PM

I'm surprised with how steady the selling has been in shares of JDSU throughout the month of January. The stock is hitting new two-year lows. The next level of potential support is the $2.00 mark from October 2002 and beyond that is the all-time low near $1.60 from early October 2002.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:53:33 PM

DOW has fallen belwo 20 weekly MA and that is bearish to say the least.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 1:53:03 PM

The SOX is still above 400.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 1:52:35 PM

Jeff, I'm long past the time when I automatically believe that a H&S is going to confirm. (See Jeff's 1:26 post.) For that matter, I no longer assume that rising or falling wedges will behave as expected, or any other chart formation. I remember reading in one of Pring's books that H&S's are so reliable that you can enter short/bearish when the right shoulder begins flattening and rounding down. That must have been a looong time ago. Still, noting such formations gives us insight into market psychology and short-term bullish or bearish strength. If prices are inside a lightly right-shoulder formation, I find that trading patterns are often erratic, so I want to know when one is forming.

We certainly have seen a lot of these set up, minimally confirm, and then rise again, perhaps into another H&S formation, haven't we? Not even neckline breaks are reliable in this climate. Still, so far I see nothing that dissuades me that this could be a possible right shoulder . . . just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 1:51:14 PM

Stepping away for half an hour here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:50:31 PM

TRIN 1.06 -6.25% ... pops above 1.0 and session high.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 1:50:44 PM

Updated QQQQ chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:48:48 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,171.83, QQQQ $36.94, DIA $104.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 1:48:55 PM

Session low for Dow futures here at 10431, losing 10440 support. QQQQ is testing 36.95 as I type.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:48:48 PM

NQ Trade Exit Point Alert -
Exit long now 1505, +0.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 1:47:59 PM

QQQQ is now trading both sides of 37.00. The 30 min channel is in a new downphase, support currently 36.95, resistance 37.15 as the 60 min channels begins to tick lower, support 37.00, resistance 37.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:46:24 PM

NQ Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long 1505, raise stop to 1504. We have quad bottom at 1504.50 and that is a must hold.

James Brown : 1/27/2005 1:40:58 PM

VeriSign (VRSN) is down 13.3% to $25.36 after reporting earnings last night that beat estimates by a penny. The company guided inline. Merrill upgraded VRSN to a buy rating today, Wedbush Morgan reiterated their "buy", and Legg Mason suggested buying on weakness. Meanwhile Smith Barney downgrades to "hold". The stock has hit or surpassed the 50% retracement of its Q4 rally.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 1:40:50 PM

Nymex crude is ticking back above 49 here after touching an intraday low of 48.60. Currently +.25 at 49.025.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:40:36 PM

If we can move above the pivot, NQ should be in the clear. Right now, very tense.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:39:50 PM

5 to 30-year spread -0.20

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:39:24 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 366.89 -0.32% ....

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:39:02 PM

VIX.X 13.15 -2.15%

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:38:32 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.40 -0.37% ... back to test DAILY S2 ($104.34) and this $104.40 level.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:34:40 PM

NQ Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long 1505, raise stop to 1503.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 1:34:28 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:33:23 PM

Qmnow belwo 49 and I think we should start moving back up. NQ hit ex gap support.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:31:38 PM

NQ Trade Entry Point Alert -
Long 1505, stop 1501

James Brown : 1/27/2005 1:31:33 PM

Canadian Natl Resources (CNQ) is breaking out. Shares are up 1.96% and breaking above what appears to be the neckline of an inverse (bullish) Head-and-shoulders pattern. Readers might want to consider bullish positions on a move over the $45.00 level. The H&S pattern points to a $52.50 target.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 1:31:06 PM

The OEX is again dropping below its 30-minute 21-ema.

James Brown : 1/27/2005 1:29:51 PM

The Gap (GPS) is performing well today with a 3.5% rally through resistance at $21.50 and its 200-dma. After weeks of consolidating under the 200-dma this might be a bullish entry point but trade cautiously. The rally is fading as the major indices trend lower. Watch for a bounce from the $21.50 level.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:29:07 PM

NQ Trade Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out -1.5.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 1:27:40 PM

The 30 min cycle channel has rolled over here, with QQQQ testing combined 30 and 60 min channel support at 37.00. The 7200-tick SMA resistance line is currently at 37.15, below which we should see the intraday cycles continue to unfold bearish- however, QQQQ has yet to test yesterday's low, which bears need to see at a minimum to suggest a change in the upward trend since Monday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:26:46 PM

Great observation Linda (01:14:34) ... the test will be, as it was for the other "head and shoulder tops" is for your rising trend to serve the bullish resistance, and get the failure at your neckline. (my thoughts anyway... based on past observations)

All these sell program premiums the past two days has me thinking somebody's trying to sell that trend.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:23:13 PM

Triple bottom NQ 1506.50. Better hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:16:40 PM

NQ Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long 1507, lower stop to 1505.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:14:56 PM

March Crude (cl05h) alert $48.72 -0.15% (30-min delayed) ... session low and conventioinal 38.2% retracement.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 1:14:34 PM

Here's my problem with the action the last few days. Sure, the OEX is rising each day, but it's finding resistance at the same line each day, too (annotations several days old now): Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:13:51 PM

NQ Trade Exit Point Alert -
Long 1507, raise stop to 1506.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 1:12:45 PM

NQ Trade Entry Point Alert -
Long 1507, stop 1504.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 1:12:05 PM

The current 37.05 QQQQ was the site of multiple intraday pullbacks on the way up and is now acting as support. A break below this level will have light intraday support at 37.00 on the way to more significant support (both intraday and on the 30 min chart) at 36.95.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 1:10:48 PM

Now the OEX tests the 30-minute 21-ema at 562.18, so far still not able to sustain values above its 30-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:37:17 PM

Bullish swing trade call exit alert ... Let's sell the one (1) SNDK Apr. $22.50 Call (SWQ-DX) at $2.35 bid. ($-1.85, or -44.05%)

SNDK $22.60 +5.36% here.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 1:09:04 PM

The advdec line confirmed that H&S I mentioned earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 1:06:59 PM

Factoring out the big volume candles (500K QQQQ shares within 100 ticks and more), there's actually relatively little going on- this looks like an attack of the trading 'bots taking place today. Volume is running higher than yesterday as well, 62.85M QQQQs total so far.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:07:31 PM

VIX.X 13.11 -2.45% ... little pop higher here.

Intra-day 5-minute looks similar to yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:06:30 PM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX.X 1,174.69, QQQQ $37.09, DIA $104.57.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 1:20:44 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 12:59:56 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 367.92 -0.04% ... doing nothing. Probably looking ahead to Tuesday/Wednesday FOMC.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:59:00 PM

VIX below 13. As Marc said earlier today, there's no fear in the markets today. He was referencing volatility measures showing up in MSFT options ahead of earnings, but it's true of the broader markets, too.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:57:26 PM

Here we go. Let's hope for a move down to 1507.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 12:57:14 PM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX.X 1,175.87, QQQQ $37.13, DIA $104.64.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:56:06 PM

I'm watching a potential H&S on the advdec line, with those sometimes being meaningful, if they're either rejected or confirmed. This one has a declining neckline that's now at about 650-680, depending on when that neckline would be hit.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:55:46 PM

If Qm can get above 49 again, we should start seeing the 30mn oscillators turn down and get us into a better long position. However, if we take off from here before 10:30, I would be inclined to scalp short.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:49:14 PM

It would be nice to get the 30mn oscillators down a bit more before going long into the close (if one is to believe the stop run push ahead of MSFT). NQ 1506/1507 would be a good entry (pivot).

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:47:00 PM

Typical low volume scalp moves. I hate the lunch hour for trading, it is usually a waste of energy.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:44:40 PM

Qm keeps dropping, but where is the rally?

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:41:24 PM

QM belwo 49. If we don't bounce from here, it would be short term bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 12:49:53 PM

VIX.X 13.01 -3.19% .... did see trade at WEEKLY S1 of 12.99.

SPX most active options are Jun06 850 put $9.30 (14,600:22,313), Jun05 1,200 put $46.50 (11,500:24,984), Jun06 700 put $3.50 (10,100:51,976), Jun05 900 put $1.75 (5,070:53,828), Feb 1,150 call $31.00 (4,256:5,317)

With VIX.X lower, and puts holding most active, only one explanation for that. Put selling.

Take that obscure call and 1,150 + $31.00 = 1,180.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:40:55 PM

The current pullback on the OEX (30-minute chart) looks like a possible bull flag pullback. That's what bulls want it to be, with the OEX finding support somewhere between the 100-ema at 5612.61 and the 21-ema on that chart at 562.17.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:40:13 PM

bounce off NQ support is weak so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 12:39:48 PM

Zooming out on the chop, QQQQ is showing a broad rising wedge off the Monday low. Note that rising support here is in the 36.95 area. The bearish stochastic divergence has yet to reverse as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 12:34:42 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 12:30:48 PM

The 30 min channel has support at 37.05 currently. The market is whippy today, but a break below the 37.12 level, occurring as I type, should see a 30 min cycle rollover after 5-10 minutes provided that 37.12 holds. The trouble is that the zigzag of the past 2 days has proliferated the confluence supports and resistances in this zone. Traders seeking to avoid this chop will look for a downside directional break below 36.80 or above 37.30.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:29:21 PM

A note to readers: I'm still receiving only scattered emails. If you've emailed me, I'm not ignoring your requests, but have just not received them. I'll reply as soon as they're sent my way as new systems are put in place this week.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:27:57 PM

Test of NDX 1508.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 12:26:15 PM

37.17 QQQQ just cracked. Next support is at the rising 7200 tick SMA at 37.12.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:26:14 PM

Here's why I'm watching those 30-minute 100/130-ema's on several charts. Note how the SPX behaved when it hit the (blue) 100-ema. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:26:26 PM

Agreed Jane. CAT is holding the DOW down, but techs are alive.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:24:13 PM

The OEX is breaking down out of that coiling pattern on the two-minute chart that I just mentioned.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:23:52 PM

NDX 1508.20 key support (38%).

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:23:21 PM

I don't note any bearish divergence on the OEX's 30-minute chart as it hit that equal (to yesterday's) high. There's nothing much to guide us as to expectations for the afternoon except the pattern of closing off the highs for the last four trading days and an inability so far to sustain values above the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. That's not much to go on just yet. On shorter-term charts, such as the two-minute, the OEX coils.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:21:31 PM

The optimism surrounding MSFT makes me still believe we will see a push to the upside into the close.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:19:55 PM

Ym breaks belwo 10468 support.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 12:19:09 PM

Despite a large 1.5M share surge in the previous 100 tick candle, QQQQ isn't budging here. The short cycles are starting to look toppy- a break below 37.10 will kick off a new short downphase, while a move above 37.29 will start it trending in overbought.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:17:29 PM

The OEX still can't stay above those 30-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2005 12:08:54 PM

I have had a request for the Tradestation symbol for the AD line. Can anyone help me here?

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:07:05 PM

The SOX is back above 400, of course. Bulls want it to stay there. The SOX's five-minute pattern needs to broaden a bit, as its five-minute pattern looks a little rising wedge-shaped.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 12:06:46 PM

Nymex crude is currently +.375 or .77% t 49.15, off a low of 48.775.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 12:12:00 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 12:01:21 PM

The OEX punched above that neckline and promptly dropped right back to the 130-ema. Bulls don't want to see the OEX now roll down below its thirty-minute 100-ema at 562.61 and especially not below the 21-ema at 562.10 (on a thirty-minute closing basis).

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 12:01:14 PM

Look for support at QQQQ 37.16 on this pullback.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2005 12:00:50 PM

VIX continues to fall, the AD line continues to climb and the TRIN continues to be flat and neutral.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 12:00:30 PM

QM holding strong above 49 now and that is going to temper this rally.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 11:57:20 AM

NQ 1525 is an instant short entry if they give it to us. 10 day ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 11:55:59 AM

Higher high for QQQQ here at 37.26.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 11:55:56 AM

The OEX is going to draw it out, isn't it? It's just above the 130-ema, just below the neckline for that inverse H&S, with the neckline at about yesterday's high of 563.54, if I've drawn it correctly.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 11:55:46 AM

VIX below 13. There is NO FEAR ahead of the weekend. If MSFT does not deliver, watch for some major selling tomorrow ahead of the Iraq elections. I would love a nice push up today to enter and hold a short.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 11:53:11 AM

EBAY has moved above 82.78 (38.2%). If it can stay above that, things would be looking better for that stock and an attack on the gap is not unlikely. Otherwise, look for a test of 71/72 (50%).

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 11:53:04 AM

The bounce from former confluence support at 37.10 QQQQ is now stalling below the 37.20 high. The 60 min channel is starting to turn back up in yet another whipsaw. A narrow range coiling near the highs of the day would have a bull flag/ cup and handle feel to it after the bounce from above yesterday's low. A break above yesterday's 37.29 high should add some much needed clarity to the issue- in this case, on the bullish side of the ledger.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 11:58:58 AM

Sharp intra-day reveral lower in energy futures. Crude oil moved under $49.00 with unleaded and heating oil soft.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 11:46:43 AM

Yellow Roadway (YELL) $53.51 +2.86% Link ... bullish technicals here (21-day/50-day SMA). Similar perhaps to May.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 11:39:02 AM

The TRAN now tries to push above the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. Unlike the OEX, it's already above yesterday's high.

Tab Gilles : 1/27/2005 11:33:00 AM

$SPX:$TNX/$SPX Update on a chart presented back on December 15, 2004. Interesting... Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 11:33:40 AM

Corning (GLW) ... chart Link I put together late last night. Conventional is BLUE, and bearish fitted 38.2% is PINK.

PnF chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 11:31:18 AM

The chart linked to my 11:21 post makes it clear that the OEX is at a key level for direction over the near-term. Remember, though, the scenario I presented last Friday and earlier, that the OEX might rise for several days from the 557 level, then level off near 566-568 into a right-shoulder and perhaps flatten there a number of days before it decided whether to rise high enough to negate the big since-November potential H&S or roll down and confirm it.

Depending on what happens with the ongoing test of the neckline and the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, the OEX could either roll down or thrust higher and confirm that inverse H&S. Bears don't want to hang on for a test of 566-568, I don't think, but bulls better know what they're going to do if that level is tested. (This level, too, for that matter.) Make up your mind now in case the OEX should shoot up there quickly.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 11:29:33 AM

The Fed's open market desk announced 12.25B in various term repos to replace the 15.25B expiring, for a net drain today of 3.25B. This is the first drain we've seen from the Fed this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 11:27:43 AM

QQQQ rolled over from a lower high at 37.20, but that upward surge has the 7200 tick SMA rising again, now up to 37.04.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 11:21:34 AM

Here's the test of the OEX's 30-minute 100/130-ema's, just below the location for a neckline for a potential inverse H&S: Link

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 11:13:40 AM

The Nasdaq also tests its 30-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 11:13:18 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 37.20 here. Bonds have firmed slightly, with TNX pulling back another .2 bps to 4.212% here. Crude oil is up .67% at 49.10 currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 11:10:28 AM

The 30 min channel is ticking up now for QQQQ, though the 30 min cycle oscillators are still on the verge of the bearish divergent downphase I discussed earlier. Yesterday's high at 37.29 is the key to this conundrum- any bounce that fails at or below that level would be compatible with a slow 60 min cycle rollover. If QQQQ doesn't fail at or before 37.29, however, then we will look for a break of 37.40 to kick off what I expect to be the new daily cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 11:10:19 AM

The OEX still tests the 30-minute 100/130-ema's.

Tab Gilles : 1/27/2005 11:07:27 AM

MURPHY OIL (MUR) Has hit my Price Objective of $85. Taking 1/2 off the table and raising stop on remaining upto $82. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 11:13:48 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 11:00:03 AM

Bonds have recovered somewhat but continue to hold their losses, TNX currently +2.2 bps at 4.214%. 4.2% support could continue to exert a magnetic pull, however, and yield bulls will want to see 4.26% violated before looking for an upside breakout.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:59:02 AM

The TRAN has also moved up for a test of its 30-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages at 3538.69 and 3551.72, respectively. The TRAN is at 3537.35 as I type, forming its second doji along the 100-ema.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:57:25 AM

SOX moving up for another test of 400.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:56:31 AM

As Jane had noted earlier, the TRIN hasn't given us much direction today, but the short-term directions of the advdec line (up) and VIX (down) certainly have.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 10:56:00 AM

QQQQ's bouncing from a higher low at the 7200-tick SMA- yet another intraday whipsaw, this time to the upside, now challenging the upper 30 min channel resistance at 37.10.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:55:17 AM

The OEX is at its 30-minute 100-ema. The Nasdaq isn't quite there yet.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:53:41 AM

The OEX has traded sideways long enough that it's perhaps invalidating that diamond shape that had been forming at the top of its climb.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 10:52:22 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $22.00 +2.50% ... challenges yesterday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 10:50:22 AM

The bounce failed again at 37.05 QQQQ for an intraday double top at that level. Current 30 min channel support is down to 36.80, coinciding with the bottom of the now-declining 60 min channel at 36.81.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:42:50 AM

I was just typing that the OEX was resisting confirming that H&S on its 1- and 2-minute charts, never a sign that bears want to see, when the OEX zoomed up again, negating the formation. I'll still be watching the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, at 562.57 and 563.25, respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 10:40:24 AM

QQQQ is surging on light volume back above 37.00, coming in for a retest of the previous high at 37.05. The 30 min channel rollover has stalled on the burst back above the 36.95 7200-tick SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 10:42:10 AM

Swing trade bearish put alert ... for Corning, Inc. (GLW) $10.99 +0.36% Link .... taking 1/2 bearish position, or five (5) of the GLW Aug. $10 puts (GLW-TB) at the offer of $0.60. Target $6.00

Tab Gilles : 1/27/2005 10:38:21 AM

$COMPQ Link

$COMPQ/$BPCOMPQ/$NASI Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 10:55:06 AM

Fiber looks terrible ... JDSU $2.27 -7.06% ... has been getting crushed. Should have turned and shorted the living optics out of it when stopped bullish at $2.90.

Sanders Morris Harris downgrades to "hold" from "buy"

UBS initiates coverage with "reduce" target of $2-2.25.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 10:27:09 AM

Daily Pivot Matrix observations ... in early going, DIA session low has been DAILY S2, while QQQQ low has been DAILY S1.

Bulls will want these to hold, then a ramp above DAILY Pivots.

Tough at this point with oil above $49.00

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:25:14 AM

You have to look at the OEX's 1- or 2-minute chart to see it, but there's a possible H&S at the top of the climb today, neckline descending but currently at about 560.98. The downside target, if confirmed, would bring the OEX down to just below 560. A move to a new high would negate it, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 10:23:29 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 10:22:46 AM

QQQQ's pulling back from lower resistance at 36.95. Current session low 36.88.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 10:18:03 AM

Session low for QQQQ here at 36.88.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 10:18:36 AM

The 27.5 strike on MSFT sports a .23 pc ratio, an insurmontable obstacle. The 25 strike is even at 1. As I mentioned, overall ratio is at .33 and with lousy technicals, such optimism is not warranted thus I would not enter a new long into the earnings.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:17:12 AM

The OEX closed the last 30-minute period below the 30-minute 21-ema, despite that big spring up from 560-ish support. We still have fifteen minutes to go in this 30-minute period, but the OEX is currently below that average at 561.66. So far, pushes up toward the 30-minute 100/130-ema's are still proving to be followed by pullbacks. Yesterday's pullback wouldn't have been far enough for options traders to benefit, so make decisions accordingly.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 10:16:40 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 10:16:40 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,172.73, QQQQ $36.90, DIA $104.52

Jane Fox : 1/27/2005 10:16:24 AM

Can't seem to get the Futures monitor today. Weird!

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 10:14:42 AM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX.X 1,173.13, QQQQ $36.95, DIA $104.53

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:13:54 AM

The SOX pulls back under 400 this morning, coiling now just under that level.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:10:57 AM

The Nasdaq did again find support on its 30-minute 21-ema, as it did all day yesterday. It now rises toward the 100/130-ema's, at 2051.35 and 2058.75.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 10:10:37 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/27/2005 10:08:57 AM

AD line is climbing, VIX is falling and the TRIN is flat so we have to call the internals bullish.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:07:55 AM

No rollover yet. The OEX's 30-minute 100/130-ema's are currently at 562.59 and 563.28, respectively. The OEX is above first Keltner resistance on the three-minute chart, looking as if a push toward 562.80 might be possible.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 10:06:46 AM

Another big surge of volume came in on the initial failure at 37.00, and so the break above that level was significant for QQQQ. Declining 7200 tick resistance is at 37.09 now, and that's where the bulls and bears should lock horns. The 30 min cycle channel continues to point south, with the 60 min channel stalled but not yet rolling over.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 10:02:57 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 10:01:04 AM

The advdec line moved up along with the rise in the indices. The OEX spiked up out of the bear flag that had looked to be forming on the three-minute chart, but it may have difficulty with the 30-minute 21-ema at 561.66 or with the Keltner resistance just above that, nearer 562. TRIN coils, so if you're going to make a decision to enter bearish positions on rollovers beneath those 30-minute 100/130-ema's and Keltner resistance, you're going to have to do it without the corroboration of the internals. Tough decision. Be aware of what you're risking and be willing to be wrong and get out.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 9:55:41 AM

VIX.X 13.39 -0.37% .... Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.78, 13.09, Piv= 13.37, 13.69, 13.97

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 9:54:29 AM

Testing the previous channel bottom/confluence at 37.00 QQQQ here. Below 7200 tick SMA resistance at 37.10, QQQQ maintains a bearish intraday bias.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 9:53:53 AM

SPY $117.31 +0.06% ... edges green.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 9:51:18 AM

QQQQ $36.96 -0.48% ... big test as it relates to past comments regarding March Pivot Matrix similarities is for the QQQQ to hold $36.88.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 9:50:33 AM

The advdec line hasn't really been able to pick itself off the floor yet. It's trying.

All day yesterday, the 30-minute 21-ema supported the Nasdaq on 30-minute closes. That average is at 2034.65, so watch to see if the Nasdaq finds support there again.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 9:46:48 AM

The OEX's rise isn't looking strong yet during this first retracement of the day. Everyone has to be confused. So far, the rise looks corrective, but TRIN can't decide what direction it wants to go.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 9:46:42 AM

The 36.85 support level mentioned earlier starts at 36.88. Yesterday's low at 36.83 is followed by the 36.65 level. Unless the bulls can bounce QQQQ back above the 7200 tick SMA (down to 37.13 here), the 30 min cycle will have rolled over from a bearish divergent top, with the 60 min cycle following above 15 minutes behind it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 9:43:53 AM

AT&T (T) $19.79 +7.2% Link ... higher on reports company is in merger talks with Bell South (BLS) $26.27 -1.12% Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 9:41:18 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $21.10 -1.63% Link .... reports quarterly earnings after today's closing bell. Consensus is $0.28 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 9:39:16 AM

Yellow Roadway (YELL) $52.40 +0.73% Link ... reports quarterly earnings after today's closing bell. Consensus is for $1.22 EPS

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 9:38:15 AM

Bonds are holding their losses, TNX up 3.4 bps at 4.226%. Next resistance is 4.26%, with 4.2% former resistance turned support.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 9:38:03 AM

The three-minute Keltner chart shows the OEX approaching support at 560, so that might be an appropriate place from which the first retracement of the day might begin. Both that chart and the 15-minute one show that the 562 zone might be difficult resistance. However, I don't trust much in this environment. That (firm resistance near 562) still looks like the highest-odds prediction so far.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 9:36:50 AM

Swift Transport (SWFT) $21.90 +5.18% Link ... strong quarterly earnings and outlook from trucker.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 9:36:39 AM

The current break is on a big surge in volume, nearly 1.5M QQQQ shares within a mere 100 ticks.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 9:33:46 AM

OEX rollover? Perhaps. The OEX is below the trendline off Monday's afternoon low, but there's just not enough information about internals yet to trust the rollover scenario. Might work; might not.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 9:31:58 AM

Looks like I was too generous in my reading of the oscillators- the QQQQ 30 min channel is rolling over now with support already down to 37.00. The 60 min channel is still flat however, and looks to be running about 10-15 minutes behind the 30. It too has current channel support at 37.00.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 9:31:47 AM

Both the Nasdaq and OEX pull back from their 30-minute 100/130-ema's this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2005 9:35:41 AM

Travelzoo (TZOO) $55.25 -12% Link ... SEC declares effective the company's registration of 750,000 shares of its stock available for secondary offering as of 05:30 PM EST yesterday.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 9:25:58 AM

QQQQ broke lower 30 min channel support at the 37.04 low, and is currently hanging just above that channel low. The 7200 tick SMA is at 37.15, and if bears can keep the price below it for approx. 10-15 minutes past the 9:30 bell, the 30 min cycle should commence a new downphase. Below 37.05, there's support at 37.00, followed by 36.95 and 36.85.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 9:24:05 AM

The current levels of the OEX's 30-minute 100/130-ema's are 562.62 and 563.32.

By the way, the Nasdaq also was stopped at these averages at its late-afternoon rally yesterday (not the SOX, though). The Nasdaq's 30-minute 100/130-ema's are at 2051.74 and 2059.27.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/27/2005 9:22:37 AM

Linda. re Yen and Chinese. This is a move many were worried about when central banks started talking about hedging the falling dollar with more euros. China is watching carefully. They are one of the main supporters of our deficit along with Japan and if they start dumping dollars it would mean that they will slow their purchases of US treasuries. This is bad news. It might also be a bluff move since there is a proposal circulating in congress to slap 27% tariffs on chinese imports in order to force them to stop manipulating the yen and make it a floating currency like the rest of us. It is calculated that they hold a 27% advantage with these manipulations of the Yen, hurting US manufacturers who could otherwise compete. The Bush administration has been unwilling to move down on the Chinese in exchange for their support on the war on terror, but many in congress are fed up and want to pressure them into floating the yen. Ths is a fully bi-partisan proposal.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 9:12:57 AM

Interesting, Tab. (See Tab's 8:41 post.) If that had been a goal, it doesn't appear to have worked.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 9:03:40 AM

YM futures dipped but ES and NQ futures stayed steady after a little volatility. I'll be watching how the OEX behaves this morning with respect with the 30-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2005 8:57:46 AM

Is anyone else having "issues" with IB? I have just lost all my settings and back to the pre-upgrade workspace. Unbelievable!

Tab Gilles : 1/27/2005 8:41:41 AM

Linda...some have said that the Iraq war was done as a currency war, with the administration's goal of preventing further Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, we needed to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 8:32:55 AM

Equities are fractionally lower, gold and silver lower, and bonds are lower, but overall there's little reaction to the news so far. TNX is up 3.6 bps to 4.228%, a big move there but little changed since 8:30AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 8:31:21 AM

Headlines: 8:30am U.S. DEC. AIRCRAFT ORDERS DOWN 16.7% 8:30am U.S. DEC. COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT ORDERS UP 17.8% 8:30am U.S. NOV. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED TO 1.8% VS. 1.4% 8:30am U.S. DEC. DURABLE GOODS UNFILLED ORDERS UP 0.5% 8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 142,000 TO 2.84 MLN 8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 1,000 TO 341,750 8:30am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS BELOW CONSENSUS 333,000 8:30am U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 7,000 TO 325,000 8:30am U.S. DEC. DURABLE GOODS INVENTORIES DOWN FRACTIONALLY

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 7:58:17 AM

I'm reading this morning that a Chinese economist is noting that China wants to broaden its reserves to include the euro and yen, with its faith in the dollar waning.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2005 7:51:43 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1173.75, NQ 1509.5, YM 10490 and QQQ -.05 at 37.10. Bonds are down .2 to 111 43/64, silver -.018 at 6.79 and gold -1.1 at 425.90. Crude oil is up .6 at 49.375 off a high of 49.425. We await the 8:30 release of Durable orders for Dec., est. .7%, initial claims, est. 330K and at 10AM, the Help wanted index, est. 37.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2005 7:55:47 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell, but other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. European markets are under some pressure this morning, with the three most commonly watched in this report lower as this report was prepared. Our futures currently trade near their levels at yesterday's close. They took a hit a couple of hours ago, but have recovered. As of 6:26 EST, gold was down $0.50, and crude was higher, at $49.15. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Early Thursday, the Nikkei opened near the flat-line level and then began dropping. It managed to close a little more than twenty points off its low of the day, closing down 35.26 points or 0.31%, at 11,341.31. Exporters led the way down with the dollar erasing the previous day's gains against the yen. Companies mention the impact the weaker dollar has on their earnings, with Nintendo being one of those companies warning that the weaker dollar would cut into its net profit. Toyota has previously cited the weakening dollar as impacting its profit. A Bloomberg article also mentions companies such as Sony, Kyocera Corp. and Advantest Corp. as possibly suffering from a weaker dollar when they report earnings. Advantest Corp. reported during the day, declining 0.08%, and Sony and Kyocera were to report after the close.

One exporter bucking the trend was Mitsubishi Motors. That company's stock surged 6.3% after a newspaper report that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries would spend about 50 billion yen to acquire Mitsubishi Motors ordinary shares.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.13%, but South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.23%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.66%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.04%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.29%.

In Europe, Germany's February Consumer Confidence climbed due to increasing willingness to spend, but rising crude prices and earnings reports created some hesitancy. Nokia reported Q4 profit that declined as the company took steps, including cutting prices, to recapture market share, and AstraZeneca reported that Nexium and Crestor sales drove its quarterly profit 52% higher. In addition, Philips Electronics climbed after its loss was narrower than expected and the company announced a share buyback program, but STMicroelectronics fell after warning that Q1 revenue would decline. Adidas-Saloman fell after reporting net income at the bottom of the expected range. Siemens' net income beat expectations but sales disappointed. In its long-awaited offer for the London Stock Exchange, the Deutsche Boerse appeared to be offering a price less than the current share price, with Deutsche Boerse officials refusing to comment on how much they would move above their "at least" offer. L'Oreal climbed after reporting earnings and including an upbeat outlook. Deutsche Telekom noted that it had added 9.1 million mobile subscribers, but was hit with profit-taking after an overnight climb.

In the U.K., subscriber data from mobile operator MmO2 disappointed, and the rise in crude worried investors. Miners rose, helping to stem losses in U.K. bourses.

As of 6:26 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 4.70 points or 0.10%, to 4,842.40. The CAC 40 had fallen 14.01 points or 0.36%, to 3,865.81. The DAX had fallen 18.09 points or 0.43%, to 4,196.03.

Market Monitor Archives