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OI Technical Staff : 1/28/2005 10:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

OI Technical Staff : 1/28/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 5:50:53 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 4:38:12 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's activity (PINK Dates) as well as this week's trade blotter at this Link Just noting that those SanDisk Apr. $22.50 calls (SWQ-DX) traded a morning high of $4.10.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 4:12:18 PM

Ring that bell .... DIA $104.40

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 4:08:50 PM

Buy program premium ... DIA $104.23, SPY $117.27

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 3:57:34 PM

Looks as if the OEX is going to end the day right on/right above that 30-minute 21-ema at 560.56. Maybe I can take credit back for saying I expected a test of the level.

Have a great weekend, everyone.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:56:27 PM

March Crude Oil (cl05h) settled down $1.66, or -3.4% to finish at $47.18. March Unleaded Gas (hu05h) settled down $0.0419, or 3.07% to finish at $1.3221. March Heating Oil (ho05h) settled down $0.0559, or 4.26% at $1.3272.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:49:07 PM

VIX.X 13.18 -0.45% ... juuuust about unchanged.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 3:47:48 PM

Remember that when we're looking at whether key levels are breached on a 30-minute chart, we're looking at 30-minute closes. The OEX is falling back toward the 30-minute 21-ema.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 3:46:56 PM

And there's the test of the 30-minute 21-ema. So far, the OEX pushes straight through it, so although I get a little credit for thinking the OEX would head up to that average, I don't think I get credit for calling it a "test." The 30-minute 100/130-ema's are ahead at 561.97 and 562.58, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:46:35 PM

QQQQ $36.90 -0.45% ... needs to gain another 13 cents to finish even for the week.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:44:19 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.19 -0.37% ... little pop to best levels of the afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:43:30 PM

3M (MMM) $83.40 +0.61% ... nice move to session high here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:41:59 PM

Yellow Corp. (YELL) $55.50 +4.32% ... going to give it a run for the money toward the close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:40:26 PM

Will have to remember to buy puts on Merck (MRK) $27.77 -10.93% when I profile a bullish trade for the Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.00 -0.55%. On Sept. 29 I profiled a profitable long call for the DIA. On Sept. 30, MRK tanked from $45.07 to $33.40.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 3:38:47 PM

Still looking for a possible test of the OEX's 30-minute 21-ema, now at 560.47.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 3:30:05 PM

Think they can hold them into the close? That would be the real anticlimactic ending, wouldn't it?

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 3:22:02 PM

The OEX is still going nowhere. The SOX just moved up for another test of 400 a few minutes ago, but it's so far bogged down at the converging 21-ema and 100/130-ema's, all just below 400.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:34:18 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 3:07:07 PM

Not much happening. The 30-minute chart shows the OEX consolidating at the bottom of a steep drop--looking like a bearish "b" distribution pattern. As I said earlier, though, I wouldn't be surprised to see a push up toward the 30-minute 21-ema at 560.57 before final direction today is decided. A failure there may qualify such a move as a throw-over move and success at getting over that average might result in a late-afternoon push toward the 100/130-ema's.

Bears and bulls alike need to decide if they want to hold over this weekend and make appropriate exit plans.

James Brown : 1/28/2005 3:04:03 PM

HSIC may have put in a double top between December and January. Watch for a drop under support at the $65.00 level and its 200-dma's.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:30:35 PM

Bullish swing trad exit alert ... let's sell the three YELL Feb. $55 Calls (YUX-BK) at the bid of $1.65. ($+0.55, or +52.38%) YELL $55.40 +4.15% At these same levels of trade, the YUX-BK's fetched $2.00 at the open. Not seeing enough selling in Treasuries toward their 03:00 close and not sure if bids will just evaporate. YELL did what I thought it would on earnings, but broader MARKET not cooperating.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 2:55:09 PM

I need to leave at 3PM today and will have to miss the resolution to this afternoon's range. The current setup has the 30 minute cycle oscillators still heading south and only now approaching oversold territory, while the daily cycle remains oversold and is trying to turn up. A bouce from above Monday's low (ie if 36.62 QQQQ holds as the low) would be a good candidate for a confirmation of the daily cycle bottom- but we'll only know for certain if 37.30-.40 gets broken next week. If 36.62 lets go, we watch 36.45 for a potential double bottom. Below that, the daily cycle will resume its trending downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 3:29:48 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for Swift Transport (SWFT) $22.20. ($-0.20, or -0.89%)

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 2:49:08 PM

QQQQ's testing 36.78 QQQQ from above now. A bounce from here will confirm the upside break, while a break below will restore the previous range, minus whatever stops got triggered in the meantime.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 2:44:01 PM

I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX push up toward its 30-minute 21-ema, with that average at 560.71, but as Keltner charts are configured now, I would expect the OEX to have some difficulty with that level, at least pausing there if not getting turned back again.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 2:42:05 PM

The OEX tests the confirmation level for the inverse H&S on its five-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 2:41:44 PM

Upside rectangle break printing here. Look for a move above 36.84 to confirm, followed by channel resistance at 36.88 QQQQ. So far it's only by 3 cents- too close to call with volume still light.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 2:37:19 PM

The OEX now tests five-minute Keltner resistance just under 560. We have the historical (over the last 20 five-minute periods, anyway) resistance at 560, too, and a neckline for a potential inverse H&S. Bulls need to marshal forces here and push the OEX above that 560 level and sustain prices above that. Next Keltner resistance on that chart is at 560.75-561.00. Bears need to be watching closely, their exit plans in mind in case a bounce goes too far.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 2:27:14 PM

QQQQ updated chart with trendlines at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 2:27:14 PM

The twenty-period high on the OEX's five-minute chart is at 560.04 (courtesy of Donchian charts), so that should be resistance. That's also a likely neckline area for a potential inverse H&S trying to confirm on that chart.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/28/2005 2:22:41 PM

For the intrepid ones, the March QQQQ 36.62 calls are trading at 1.10. with a 1.6 ratio. It's a decent odds play for a one week swing trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 2:18:51 PM

Another low at 36.62 QQQQ just printed. What's notable is that yesterday's low hasn't even been touched since it broke at 11AM, but after the extended ranges of the past month, I'm disinclined to automatically assume that this current rectangle is going to break lower.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 2:18:04 PM

Here's what the OEX's five-minute chart suggests: the OEX has support near 558.75, but it the OEX cannot produce five-minute closes above the line currently at 559.22, it's more likely to keep bumping against that support, testing it.

Now that I've re-read that, it sound simplistic, but that's the if/then statement we can get out of the chart now, without much other information.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 2:14:16 PM

Testing equal low level on the OEX (from one-minute chart).

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 2:08:52 PM

QQQQ's heading for a retest of the rectangle low, with the previous low just breaking as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 2:34:25 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 1:53:44 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Swift Transport (SWFT) $22.40 here, stop $22.20, target $22.99

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 1:51:06 PM

Here's the test of 38.78 from a higher low, with the short cycles pointing up in a new upphase. If QQQQ fails to break 38.80, then this upphase will have been corrective/bearish, while a break north from here could turn the 30 min cycle channel back up. Look for a break above 36.88 to confirm any bullishness.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 1:50:06 PM

If equities are going to get any type of bid going, need to see sellers step into bonds pretty quick, prefer the longer-dated maturities.

10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 7.1 bp at 4.136%.

DIA $104.00, SPY $116.93, QQQQ $36.77

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 1:47:21 PM

The OEX came back down and hit the Keltner lines that had been holding the OEX back earlier, establishing them now as support. However, I think the OEX may just be attempting to reform into a bear flag. Keep a watch on the Fib levels off today's drop, though, with the 38.2% level at 560.38 and the 50% at 560.92, where Keltner resistance now gathers. Bulls want to get the OEX back above 561, and bears want to see a rollover from that point or lower.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 1:41:00 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,167.17 , QQQQ $36.69, DIA $103.88

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 1:37:41 PM

Here's that tired old chart I've been showing. Last week I was showing it to demonstrate where support might lie; this week, to show resistance. Now I'm back to showing it to show where support might lie: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 1:36:42 PM

This third failure below 36.78 QQQQ makes this range into a rectangle between 36.60 and 36.78. A failure to reach the low end of the range here will strengthen what looks to be a bullish short cycle divergence shaping up on the oscillators.

James Brown : 1/28/2005 1:31:07 PM

Microstrategy (MSTR) has given up over half of its 20% gain this morning. The stock is up just 9% to $70.83.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 1:29:46 PM

Here's that OEX run to the upside that I suggested might happen in my 1:14 post. It's a little early for a stop-running push, although some Keltner chart configurations were suggesting it might be imminent. The five-minute chart shows resistance thinning overhead, so bears who have had warning since 560.50 to protect profits should have already had a plan in place and know how they'll handle this spring higher. If this is nothing more than a stop-running push, it's a test. If it holds, then bulls are cheered, and, if it doesn't, bears are. The 38.2% retracement of the move off the day's high is now at 560.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 1:29:11 PM

QQQQ is testing the former bounce high at 36.78. A break above that level will target 1st resistance at 36.84, followed by the current 30 min channel top at 36.88.

James Brown : 1/28/2005 1:28:28 PM

Heads up! Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs (GS) has reversed its recent dip and is now breaking out through the top of its six-week trading range. We've highlighted GS on the watch list before and the move over resistance at $106.00 looks like a potential bullish entry point.

James Brown : 1/28/2005 1:25:29 PM

Drug maker Eli Lilly (LLY) has broken down from a bullish triangle pattern. The stock could not break out above its long-term trendline of lower highs dating back to June 2004. This looks like a bearish entry point.

James Brown : 1/28/2005 1:23:12 PM

Check out the weekly chart of BEC. Shares are failing at that trendline. Would you short it/buy puts here? Chart: Link

James Brown : 1/28/2005 1:18:29 PM

ADBE finally worked out. I'd like to see KBH take off again.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 1:15:50 PM

Sounds as if you have a couple of successful OI plays, James. Congratulations.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 1:14:18 PM

Crude oil is holding a 3.02% loss here at 47.375, off a session low of 46.975.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 1:14:11 PM

The OEX produced only a minimal close below the 15-minute Keltner channel line needed to suggest setting a downside target near 556. The gradual creep lower now bumps that Keltner support lower, too. The OEX does slide lower below five-minute Keltner resistance, toward that 558.24 target suggested on that chart. It's gotten fairly close already, so watch for the possibility that there could be a run to the upside, to test that five-minute Keltner resistance near 559.08 (on a five-minute closing basis).

James Brown : 1/28/2005 1:13:24 PM

Dow-component Boeing (BA) has been sliding under a trend of lower highs since the small double-top in November-December. Today shares are erasing yesterday's bounce in what looks like a clear reversal. The stock is already under its 200-dma but shares are finding support near $49.50 and its exponential 200-dma. Traders could use a drop under $49.50 as a bearish entry point but we'd wait until after the February 2nd earnings report before initiating any positions.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 1:10:40 PM

QQQQ is grinding sideways at 36.68 currently. If this is a deadcat bounce, it should fail soon, confirmed by a break below 36.60. Next support is at 36.45. A break above 36.78 will be the first sign of trouble for the bulls.

James Brown : 1/28/2005 1:04:18 PM

Exit Alert! OI put play Adobe Systems (ADBE) has broken down from its three-day trading range and finally hit our profit target at $55.00. We'll be closing the play. If you think ADBE has more to run consider tightening the stop above today's high or the 10-dma.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 1:12:55 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

James Brown : 1/28/2005 1:02:11 PM

The homebuilders are one of two sectors currently trading in the green today. The DJUSHB index is up 1.9%. Meanwhile OI call play KBH is up 2.4% and breaking out above the $108 level.

Tab Gilles : 1/28/2005 12:56:48 PM

SPX/VIX 60 minute chart Here we go again, chart appears to be setting up for a rise on the VIX and further declines on the SPX. If markets close down today that will be 4 weeks in a row. Not Bullish at all! Link

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 12:44:58 PM

Waiting for a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 559.09, which may have happened by the time this is posted. That would suggest that bearish players look for a downside target near 556. The five-minute chart already shows a likelihood that the OEX will fall toward 558.42.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 12:43:16 PM

QQQQ updated chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 12:39:18 PM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX.X 1,167.12, QQQQ $36.68, DIA $103.87

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 12:36:55 PM

Bonds have pulled back off their highs, with the ten year note yield (TNX) currently testing 4.14% resistance (former support) from below. TNX is dwon 6.7 bps at 4.14% currently.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 12:31:28 PM

I'm looking at a monthly chart of the SPX. It's not pretty. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 12:29:33 PM

QQQQ's breaking down out of the flag now. Next support is at the 36.62 low, with new resistance 36.78.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 12:28:23 PM

Merck (MRK) $28.46 -8.69% ... stock getting hammered ... Company saying SEC regulators have upgraded their probe of the company's handling of its withdrawn arthritis drug Vioxx into a formal investigation, meaning they can issue subpoenas.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 12:24:28 PM

Corning (GLW) $10.68 -0.65% .... slips to low of session and "zone of support" from $10.55-$10.69.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 12:23:31 PM

VIX.X 13.40 +1.20% ... session high has been 13.56. Just under WEEKLY Pivot of 13.67. Thoughts here are that bulls need to see VIX.X hold under WEEKLY Pivot. Otherwise, equity indices in the DAILY Pivot matrix could be further vulnerable below DAILY S2.

Tab Gilles : 1/28/2005 12:18:59 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Murphy's Law...! Yesterday I posted to take some money off the table (1/2 position) after MUR hit my $85 price objective. Today it has gapped up...go figure??? Just when you think it's gone as high as you think, it goes higher! Well one reason I held onto the other 1/2 position and raised the stop to $82. I'm now raising my P/O to $95 and raising the stop to $85 on the remaining 1/2 position.

Today's move is due to a Congo oil discovery. Even with crude oil down $1.60 or so. Link Link

MUR Link Link

PnF chart target $119.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 12:09:11 PM

The clothesline drop to 36.62 turned the 30 min oscillators down in an early downphase that is still in progress and has room to run. 30 min channel support is currently at 36.58. Resistance is currently at 36.87.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 12:08:37 PM

Bounce still looking corrective on the OEX, although the central fact so far is that the 30-minute 100/130-ema's continue to hold as resistance. The SOX remains below 400. The TRAN is trying to bounce, however, and it's bounce isn't taking quite the same shape as the OEX's. In fact, I'm not sure what shape to call it. It's kind of V-shaped, but the candles were middle-sized instead of the usual tall white candles you'd expect. It paused at the 38.2% retracement of the decline, but it may be garnering strength now as it moves up toward the 50% retracement. Keltner charts show that it will encounter significant resistance there, though, at about 3538-3540. Strange day.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 12:11:48 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 11:58:55 AM

As Keene said on the Futures side, this climb is looking corrective. Because the plummet was so quick, Keltner lines haven't had an opportunity to converge and show where strongest resistance might be, so I'm turning to Fib targets. The 38.2% retracement of the plummet off the equal high is at 560.72, where the OEX displayed a small gap as it moved down, and the 50% retracement is at 561.20. Bears want to see this flag break down before the OEX retraces more than 50% of the plummet and then see it quickly hit a new low.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 11:55:27 AM

QQQQ's bouncing from a low of 36.62. The bounce is sideways and flaggy, with rising support currently at 36.70 off the low. 36.80 and 36.84 are first resistance.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 11:54:04 AM

Hmm. I'm noting Marc's 11:21 post on the Futures side that QCharts had frozen just at the time that mine froze and I lost broadband connection. Caused by a QCharts glitch, I'm wondering now?

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 11:45:41 AM

I'm back after losing my broadband connection for a few minutes. The OEX still sits where it was when I lost that connection: at 15-minute Keltner support. Bears want to see a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 559.34, and bulls want to see the OEX bounce from that potential support.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 11:41:21 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,167.85, QQQQ $36.75, DIA $104.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 11:27:46 AM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,167, QQQQ $36.69, DIA $103.93

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 11:22:02 AM

VIX.X 13.39 +1.13%

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 11:21:23 AM

Bid for stocks has evaporated, while bid for Treasuries has benchmark 10-year yield ($TNX.X) plunging 7.7 bp at 4.130%.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 11:20:27 AM

The OEX is below 560.50, at the very bottom of the channel range established this week. Bears who entered positions on rollovers beneath the 30-minute 100/130-ema's should have their profit-protecting plans in place. The OEX's 15-minute chart shows potential support near 559.50. That's about to be tested. If that fails (15-minute closing basis), that chart suggests setting a potential downside target near 556.00.

Mark Davis : 1/28/2005 11:20:17 AM

As you can see we have been soundly rejected from the 1175.75 neckline (blue line) of the confirmed daily H&S pattern. Unless we can claw our way back up above the neckline the downside target remains in the 1120 area. If this is a headfake to the downside it is a good one... Link
I'll check in later this evening. Don't have too much fun without me (grin)

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 11:10:58 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 11:10:56 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 11:08:09 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,170.77, QQQQ $36.78, DIA $104.24

Mark Davis : 1/28/2005 11:08:21 AM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert - Short @ 1176.50, stop 1178.50
I have to leave for the day but in the light of my previous post I don't want to get too close to the action in case this turns out to be a trade we can ride for a big gain

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 11:07:13 AM

The break of support has both the 30 and 60 min channels in sharp and probably trending downphases. A break below 36.80 QQQQ will confirm a trending move and set up a retest of 36.65 support. 36.95 and 37.05 QQQQ are now resistance, with a bearish bias below that confluence zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 11:02:51 AM

TNX breaking 4.14% support, currently down 6.9 bps at 4.138%.

Mark Davis : 1/28/2005 11:03:31 AM

We are in danger of a serious break if ES continues much lower. Here's a 60-min chart showing a longer-term view of the important inflection points and downside targets should we fail... Link

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 11:02:28 AM

SOX at 401.08 as I type. Time for a bounce into a right shoulder for the possible H&S at the top of its rise off the 1/24 low?

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 11:00:34 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link .

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 11:00:03 AM

Big drop in the SOX, but it's so far still above 400.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:57:46 AM

QQQQ cracked the previous low and is now testing lower 30 and 60 min channel support at 36.95.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 10:53:50 AM

TRIN 1.36 +46.23% ... well above its DAILY R2.

Jane Fox : 1/28/2005 10:53:36 AM

We now have the TRIN and VIX rising as the AD line is falling. Internals are bearish - finally.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:52:31 AM

QQQQ's just tested the previous 37.04 low here. Bonds remain firm, TNX -6.1 bps at 4.146%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 10:52:30 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,172.30, QQQQ $37.08, DIA $104.42

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 10:52:12 AM

TRIN rose as the OEX did, too, to test the upper channel line (not quite touching it) of the channel displayed in my 10:35 post, the neckline for the inverse H&S (not quite touching that, either) and the thirty-minute 100/130-ema's. Resistance still holds and there's slowly more evidence to support the rollover theory than the breakout one. So far, selling resistance still works, but again bears need to decide ahead of time what they'll do near 560.50 if it's tested.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 10:51:05 AM

March Crude Oil (cl05h) $47.80 -2.12% ... moves to lows of the week. Looking $47.10-$46.20 here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 10:46:00 AM

Need to shut down for a minute...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:42:59 AM

QQQQ has moved back above 7200-tick reisstance at 37.14. The 30 and 60 min cycle channels are opposed but basically trendless here, and this 36.90-37.30 range continues to act as a washing machine, choppy and directionless.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 10:41:23 AM

Cendant (CD) $23.00 +0.61% Link ... looks to extend gains after recent move back above its rounding lower 200-day SMA. MACD moving above zero and bullish implications. Bulls would like to see a 7.5 million volume day come above the 200-day SMA in my opinion. Show some conviction among buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 10:42:16 AM

Yellow Roadway (YELL) $55.01 +3.40% Link .... Bulls should also be monitoring OSK Link and SWFT Link after their earnings. Overhead supply should be limited.... will bulls continue to press higher?

Jane Fox : 1/28/2005 10:39:02 AM

The VIX is falling and not supporting the rising TRIN but, like yesterday, it is supporting the rising AD line. Man I wish these could get together.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 10:35:32 AM

Here's the channel that has been forming on the OEX's 15-minute chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 10:33:38 AM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 616.43 -0.07% Link ... making notes and setting upside alert at 621. Only major equity index in the U.S. Market Watch to come very close to testing its trending lower 21-day SMA (620.67).

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:31:01 AM

Session low for Nymex crude here, down 1.45 or 2.97% at 47.40.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 10:29:52 AM

The OEX tests the 30-minute 100/130-ema's again, with those averages at 562.49 and 563.07, respectively. Bulls want to see 30-minute closes above these averages and especially above the inverse H&S neckline at 563.55, with bears wanting to see another rollover beneath those averages.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:27:23 AM

Session high for ten year treasuries, TNX -5.6 bps at 4.151%.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 10:25:03 AM

Can't trust anything today, even less than you've been able to trust (not much) movements the last few days. The OEX did not touch the downside target for the H&S before heading up again. Bears, be careful now in case that was a throwover beneath support and now the OEX tries a stop-run to the upside. If so, and if it catches, the OEX could then see a pop higher toward 566-568. Just not sure an upside move would have any more sustainability than the downside ones.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 10:24:52 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've profiled at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:21:54 AM

30 min delayed, refreshable view of the USD Index, 10 min candles, at this Link .

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:16:36 AM

Session high for ten year treasuries here at 112 9/64, wit TNX -5.4 bps zt 4.153%. Gold, euros and CAD are at session lows. The USD is rallying with bonds, but equities have yet to choose a direction.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 10:13:23 AM

Here's what's happening today on the daily chart with respect to those same chart formations you've been seeing for a while: Link

Mark Davis : 1/28/2005 10:12:13 AM

Here's an updated version of the QM chart I mentioned in my previous post... Link

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 10:10:56 AM

The advdec line still moves lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:10:44 AM

Session lows for gold here, -.7 at 425.70.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 10:09:07 AM

The downside target for the OEX's H&S on its three-minute chart is only 561.40, so be watchful in that area, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:08:57 AM

A 6.25B overnight repo from the Fed replaces the maturing 5.25B for a net 1B add for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:06:52 AM

Lower 30 min channel support is down to 36.97, 60 min support at 36.94 QQQQ.

Mark Davis : 1/28/2005 10:06:49 AM

I have to admit I am surprised we are not rallying this morning. Several times during the overnight session I came close to setting the stop on our short play to break even (1176.50). I kept thinking about all the good tech earnings, especially MSFT, and thinking we would charge out of the gates today. Oil is also down almost a dollar. I'm glad now I didn't change the stop because it would have resulted in being stopped out by one tick (and you know how much I love it when it does that). As Linda stated earlier on the Monitor side, this negative action has to be weighing on beleagured bulls, who will throw in the towel at some point if this continues. We still may not have a big down day but at least we can relax a little. Oil just hit the $48 level. If you remember a couple of days ago I posted a chart showing strong buying coming into QM at that level. It will be interesting to see if they appear again today and run QM up. If they do it will probably kill any hope of a rally today in equities.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 10:16:40 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 10:04:05 AM

OEX H&S confirmed on the three-minute chart. Thirty-minute 21-ema just below. Bears who might have entered a bearish play on this rollover need to decide right away how they'll handle the 560.50 level, if hit. Automatic exit or not?

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 10:03:48 AM

QQQQ is retesting the former low of 37.08. A new short cycle downphase has commenced, and the 30 min cycle channel is rolling over as well.

Jane Fox : 1/28/2005 10:03:44 AM

TRIN is probing the upper range of the neutral band 1.20 and has been rising all morning and the AD line is supporting the TRIN making new daily lows.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 10:00:02 AM

The OEX turns down again from the likely right-shoulder level for the H&S on its three-minute chart. The three-minute chart shows some support building near the neckline area, though, so I don't see strong evidence that the OEX is going to confirm that formation. The rate things are going this morning, the picture may have completely changed by the time this post appears.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:58:02 AM

So far, the OEX still can't get above the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. Bulls are going to tire of the effort eventually. They need to push the OEX above that level and keep it above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 9:55:53 AM

The Fed has 5.25B in overnight repos expiring today. Awaiting the announcement from the open market desk.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:55:41 AM

I mentioned a couple of days ago that a respected market advisor had said Wednesday morning that he was advising cash positions until Monday. Recent action explains why. Chart characteristics have been displaying reasons to expect choppy trading conditions, too.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:54:10 AM

Neckline rejected this time. (See my 9:52 and 9:49 posts.)

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:52:53 AM

OEX testing the neckline of that H&S on the three-minute chart, noted in my 9:49 post.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 9:52:25 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,173.85, QQQQ $37.15, DIA $104.53.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 9:51:49 AM

VIX.X 13.06 -1.35% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.72, 12.97, Piv = 13.21, 13.46, 13.70.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:49:59 AM

Potential H&S on the OEX's three-minute chart, head at today's high, shoulders at about 562.80, neckline at about 562.25. May be invalidated by the time this post is uploaded.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 9:49:04 AM

As yesterday, a break below 36.90 or 37.30 should provide a welcome and hopefully directional range break.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 9:48:34 AM

I didn't have time to enter the last post below QQQQ whipsawed back up within the flattening 30 min channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 9:48:06 AM

QQQQ has just broken below the 7200-tick SMA support, stalling the 30 min cycle upphase. A move below 37.00 for 5-10 minutes should be sufficient to kick off a new 30 min downphase, from a lower price and oscillator high.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:44:29 AM

Careful, bulls. Advdec line falling sharply.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:47:51 AM

The OEX still tests the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. The 21-ema on that chart is at 561.96, but yesterday, that average stopped being a barrier in either direction. Still, it might help serve as a marker to confirm a rollover beneath the 100/130-ema's, if that should happen. Remember that the inverse H&S's neckline is at about 563.55. The OEX is close to both a rollover point and a breakout point. If you have a strong bias and are determined to trade today, here might be a point to do it. I don't see strong confirming evidence (other than recent history, which suggests another rollover toward 560.50) of a move either direction. Because of daily chart developments, I'd be more comfortable with the bearish bias, but that doesn't mean that it's the correct one.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 9:42:02 AM

The 30 min cycle oscillators are on an uptick, confirming the shape of the cycle channel for QQQQ. Also bullish is the drop in the ten year yield (TNX), which is now down 5.1 bps at 4.156%, dipping back into the 4.14%-4.16% confluence.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 9:37:16 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.51 -0.05% ... PG $52.57 -5% provides early drag. Breadth positive at 18 to 12.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:35:59 AM

Some volatility this morning. Be careful.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:35:18 AM

The TRAN opened and dropped immediately.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 9:34:58 AM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $42.89 +2.82% ... strong move out of the gate. (earnings)

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 9:31:59 AM

The OEX opens slightly above yesterday's close and heads back up toward the 100/130-ema's, but the climb is tentative, to say the least.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 9:31:52 AM

QQQQ spiked a high to 37.28 earlier and is currently back to 37.21. 30 min channel resistance is up to 37.33, support 37.00, with 7200 tick SMA support at 37.09. The 30 min cycle has a bullish bias above 37.09, bearish below.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 9:28:12 AM

Strong bid in Treasuries .... 5-year yield ($FVX.X) down 3.8 bp at 3.703%, 10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 4.6 bp at 4.161% and 30-year yield ($TYX.X) down 4.7 bp at 4.625%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2005 9:25:32 AM

Procter & Gamble (PG) $55.32 ... lower at $53.15 after reaching a deal to buy Gillette (G) $45.85 in a deal valued at $57 billion. Gillette gaining $4.43, or 9.6%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 9:02:29 AM

If the weaker than expected GDP can't generate more of a bid in treasuries, then I'd take that as a confirmation of a preliminary trend change for the yield. TNX is down all of 3.8 bps here at 4.169%, and the well-worn 4.14%-4.16% confluence zone has yet to be tested. Bond bulls want to see 4.14% broken today.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 8:59:57 AM

Futures have lost most/all of their post-MSFT gains, depending on the moment when you glance at futures value and the contract being viewed. If the OEX opens flat, it will open just beneath the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, but you can't always count on an accord with futures activities and the cash open. The OEX continues to find resistance at its 30-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages at 562.48 and 563.08, respectively. It also finds resistance at a rising trendline off the 11/11/04, 12/01/04 and 1/14/05 lows, piercing the trendline during the day but falling back below it by the close. The inevitable conclusion: for the OEX, at least, resistance continues to hold. I can't help thinking that bulls better push through that resistance soon or bulls are going to give up and retreat.

Bulls have reason to keep trying. On the OEX, an inverse H&S neckline crosses at about 563.55, and a push above that might move the OEX up toward 566-568. Gotta get through that other resistance first, though, and so far, the OEX continues to roll down toward 560.50 after each test of those 30-minute averages. Profiting from such moves has required traders to automatically exit as that lower level is hit, however, as the OEX promptly rises again. Sometime or another, that range is going to break, perhaps with a throw-over the wrong direction first.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 8:39:34 AM

Q4 GDP was 3.1% vs. 3.5% expected. The chain deflator was 2% vs. 2.1% exp., and the ECI was .7% vs. .8% expected.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 8:34:30 AM

Equities have pulled back further, YM going negative, while gold ans silver are at session highs while bonds continue to rise, TNX down 3.7 bps to 4.171%. Gold is testing 428, up 1.2 to 427.60 currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 8:33:06 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. Q4 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX UP 0.7% VS 0.9% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. Q4 TRADE SUBTRACTS 1.7 PERCENTAGE POINTS FROM GDP

8:30am U.S. Q4 FINAL DOMESTIC SALES UP 4.3% VS. 4.9% Q3

8:30am U.S. Q4 PCE CORE PRICE INDEX UP 1.6%

8:30am U.S. GDP SLOWDOWN DUE TO TRADE, DURABLES

8:30am U.S. Q4 BUSINESS INVESTMENT UP 10.3% VS. 13% Q3

8:30am U.S. Q4 CONSUMER SPENDING UP 4.6% VS. 5.1% Q3

8:30am U.S. 2004 GDP UP 4.4%, BEST SINCE 1999

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 8:27:21 AM

Equities have pulled back slightly as bonds, gold and silver tick up ahead of the 8:30 GDP and PCE data.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/28/2005 7:45:17 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1176, NQ 1514, YM 10469 and QQQ +.12 to 37.22. Gold is down .50 cents to 425.90, silver down .009 to 6.81, ten year notes up .045 to 111 13/16 and crude oil down .50 cents to 48.35. We await the 8:30 release of Q4 GDP, est. 3.5%, including the chain deflator, est. 2.1% and the ECI, est. .8%.

Linda Piazza : 1/28/2005 6:57:59 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell again, although a late-day surge took it 100 points off its low of the day. Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, as do European markets as they coil ahead of the U.S. economic numbers. The PG intention to buy G has boosted European consumer products companies, and some techs benefited from MSFT's report, but reaction to earnings seems to be one driving force. Our futures are off their post-MSFT highs, but so far holding steady through the overnight session. As of 6:40 EST, gold was down $0.50, and crude, down $0.42. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei declined again Friday after December's industrial production and household spending numbers fell 1.2% and 3.8%, respectively. The industrial production decline was expected, but the household spending number showed a greater-than-expected decline. Unemployment fell to 4.4%, down from November's 4.5%. The Bank of Japan's Governor Fukui also addressed the budget committee for the lower house, affirming the intention to maintain the current easy monetary policy.

The Nikkei declined after a spate of earnings disappointments and ahead of earnings reports by other companies. Seiko Epson's operating profit fell from the year-before level, and Kyocera cited lower demand in mobile phones and digital electronics products as responsible for its lowered full-year outlook. Mitsubishi announced a new restructuring plan that lowered its goal for global sales in fiscal 2007. By mid-afternoon, the Nikkei had fallen to its low of the day, but then buying took over and the Nikkei closed more than 100 points off that low of the day, down only a more modest 20.73 points or 0.18%, closing at 11,320.58. At the close, techs and exporters had shown a mixed performance, but Sony and NEC Corp had gained.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.64%, but South Korea's Kospi fell 0.35%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.79%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.16%. China's Shanghai Composite declined again, down 1.00%. The overnight session saw a spate of conflicting announcements about China's policy on the yuan.

European markets also turn in mixed performances, coiling ahead of the release of U.S. economic numbers, with peers or suppliers of MSFT tending to benefit from MSFT's report in early trading. Procter and Gamble's (PG) decision to buy Gillette (G) buoyed consumer goods companies such as BIC, Henkel and Unilever. Nokia built on yesterday's gains. Some pharmaceuticals were in the news, with Sanofi-Aventis dropping after speculation that Kuwait Petroleum Corporation may be selling its stake in the company. Novo Nordisk rose after reporting earnings. Several car makers declined.

In the U.K., the number of mortgage approvals dropped in December. As had happened in continental Europe, consumer products companies climbed. Goldman Sachs lowered its rating on Virgin Mobile, sending that stock lower in early trading.

As of 6:40 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 7.00 points or 0.14%, at 4,846.40. The CAC 40 was higher by 0.25 points or 0.01%, at 3,891.65. The DAX was higher by 10.06 points or 0.24%, at 4,226.47.

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