Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Tab Gilles : 1/30/2005 11:25:25 PM

Early futures trading has oil down, U.S. Dollar up, gold down S&P/NDX futures up.

Symbol Bid Ask Last Change Chg%

Crude Oil Fut 46.55 46.59 46.55 -0.61 -1.31

Gold (Spot) 423.57 423.82 423.57 -2.56 -0.60

S&P 500 Future 1179.88 1180.38 1180.13 5.25 0.44

Nasdaq100 Fut 1520.88 1521.63 1520.88 12.50 0.82

$USD US Dollar March 83.60 0.07 83.68 83.71 83.55

On the oil markets... Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez is not attending a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries because of a visit in Caracas by Chinese Vice President Zeng Qinghong, an official statement released here said

The minister "will not attend the OPEC meeting to be held on January 30 since he was committed to very important issues related to the visit of the vice president of China, who is now in Caracas to sign economic and energy cooperation agreements," the statement said

Ramirez also heads the state oil company PDVSA.

OI Technical Staff : 1/30/2005 10:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

OI Technical Staff : 1/30/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Tab Gilles : 1/30/2005 3:27:41 PM

Two factors influencing the markets Monday morning will be the Iraqi election and OPEC. The election so far has gone very well and a positive for the Bush administration. I would say this is a positive and bullish factor for the equity markets. As for OPEC's warning that oil prices will stay high, that could be taken as a negative.West Texas Intermediate should continue to bounce between tighter periods in the upper $40s and soft periods in the low $40s. Strong Chinese demand growth, slower Russian supply growth and refining bottlenecks will combine to keep the demand for OPEC oil high and spare capacity low. Oil prices could repeat the pattern of 2004, with periods of temporary weakness being followed by sudden price spikes. It sounds like another year of periodic oil price spikes to over $50/bbl. WTIC Link Link Link

MURPHY OIL (MUR) One reason I took some profits on MUR was an expectation that $WTIC might pullback after this weekends events. Of course it gaped up Friday on a Congo oil discovery. Still we may see some profit taking there this week, and I have set my stop. (see post 1/28/05 12:18:59) Link

Other news this weekend that has me concerned is that of Bill Gates, whose net worth of $46.6 billion makes him the world's richest person, is betting against the U.S. dollar. "I'm short the dollar," Gates, chairman of Microsoft Corp., told Charlie Rose in an interview late yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down." Link

However, the charts indicate that the EUR:USD could decline a bit more from here. Yes, the trend since 2002 has been up and it could continue to rise, but resistance on the yearly charts will be hard to break over. Near term 1.35 resistance & 1.25 support...longer term 1.45 resistance. Link Link

On the Indicies...

$COMPQ I still see further risks to the downside, but we maybe coming close to a buy point. As I've presented numerous times on MM I use the $NASI, along with other indicators on buy sell points on $COMPQ as well as the $NDX. Link

The $NASI is still in decline and no reversal as of yet. Link Link

Friday afternoon I last posted a 60 minute chart of the $SPX/$VIX which appeared to indicate a rise in near term volatility and more downside for the $SPX. Two charts from Friday afternoon and after the close. Link Link

One final note, on some candle formations. The $COMPQ formed a Bearish Engulfing signal on Friday and the $INDU sold off after a Hanging Man/Harami signal. Not very good news, putting the current market trend into question and signals weakness ahead.

Market Monitor Archives