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Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 10:34:01 PM

Tuesday's program trading levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $1.30 and set for program selling at $-0.85.

OI Technical Staff : 1/31/2005 10:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

OI Technical Staff : 1/31/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 7:36:57 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot retracement at this Link near-term support $104.43, intermediate-term support at $103.41. Near-term resistance $105.45 and intermediate-term resistance at $106.08. DIA $104.85 in extended session. Current February "Max Pain" theory value is $107.00 ($1.00 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 5:31:02 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link (20-day Net% equivalent to month of January) Closing Internals at this Link .. will note heavy volume at the NYSE with NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio giving a "buy signal." Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 4:33:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's activity.... Swing trade sell naked puts and another five (5) of the DIA Feb. $103 Puts (DIA-NY) at the bid of $0.40. MONTHLY trade blotter of closed January 2005 trades at this Link

Mark Davis : 1/31/2005 4:02:26 PM

Linda isn't that the way it always works? They leave you guessing at the end of the day. It's never obvious what to do until you see it in the rear view mirror. Drat!

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:58:47 PM

Will the OEX hit 566-568 before the close? It's doing its best. This is what I feared all day. If the OEX does end near 566-568, it will have been parked just below the 30- and 50-sma's, still within a potential right-shoulder level for the large H&S on the daily chart. Difficult decision for both bulls and bears as to whether to hold overnight.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 3:57:59 PM

QQQQ's just cleared descending 7200-tick SMA resistance, stalling the 30 min channel downphase with resistance currently at 37.45. QQQQ is net unchanged from its opening levels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 4:23:47 PM

3M (MMM) $84.27 +1.22% ... if triple-M can hold it here, MACD should give bullish move above Signal, above zero. Looking $87.04-$87.26 here.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:51:09 PM

The OEX popped above that descending trendline off the day's high as I uploaded that last post. That's brought it up to retest the 60-minute 130-ema.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:49:56 PM

The OEX is pausing at that descending trendline off the day's high, but it hasn't turned back yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 3:49:30 PM

Cendant (CD) $23.56 +2.21% ... threatens to close at a 7-month high.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:43:13 PM

The OEX is now at the descending trendline off the day's high. If it's going to be turned back, this is one place where it might happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 3:43:07 PM

Steep bounce off that 37.26 low. Bulls have to clear 37.39 7200-tick SMA resistance in order to stall teh 30 min channel downphase for QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 3:42:23 PM

Financials move to best levels of the session.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:41:54 PM

There was a strong surge and the OEX did get past the next Keltner resistance, but now it faces more, at 564. If it can get past that, as it's trying to do as I type, resistance lines thin and it's much more likely to head toward 565.85 or even 565.68, according to the three-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 3:34:28 PM

We have 30 and 60 min channel downphases now in progress, with the 30 min channel support (see Keltner35 channel on previous chart) down to 37.20. The morning low has just been briefly cracked, with a bounce from 37.26 currently lifting QQQQ back above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 3:33:27 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 3:31:11 PM

TRIN 1.10

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:22:45 PM

The OEX heads down toward the 561 level suggested as the next downside target by the three-minute Keltner chart, but it's not there yet. It may rise again, attempting a bounce first, with Keltner resistance trying to converge near 563.60-564.20. It looks strong enough to hold it back, if so, unless a strong surge sends those lines into disarray.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 3:16:15 PM

March Crude Oil futures (cl05h) settled up $1.02, or 2.16% at $48.20. WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $44.78, $45.96, Piv= $47.88, $49.06, $50.98.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:14:42 PM

Without a strong surge up that can break through massing resistance near 564-564.50, the OEX looks vulnerable to 562.09 according to the three-minute Keltner chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 3:13:03 PM

37.33 is cracking now, with 30 min channel support descending to just above the 37.28 session low for QQQQ. Below that, next support is at 37.20.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:09:39 PM

Potential inverse H&S now visible on the OEX's three-minute chart. . . but the OEX is invalidating it even as I type this.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:08:29 PM

The OEX did roll down below 565-565.30 as bears would have liked, but they need to see a new five-minute low to confirm that rollover, which hasn't yet occurred.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 3:07:14 PM

One factor that might give OEX bears a pause is the BIX's behavior. The BIX's daily chart shows a strong tall white candle so far today, and the BIX has not yet risen to challenge the converging 30- and 50-sma's. They're still overhead in the 373 level while the BIX is at 569.32. The BIX's daily pattern shows the same possibility for a H&S (this one with a descending neckline) as do some other charts, but it's possible that the BIX will be drawn up toward that 373 level before rounding down. Link The BIX may be impacted by the FOMC meeting this week, however, so could see some unpredictable behaviors.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 3:06:08 PM

QQQQ has broken the intraday rising trendline for the first time, testing 37.38 once again and finding support as I type. Lower 30 and 60 min channel support are at 37.33 currently. Volume is very light overall at 68.4M QQQQ shares so far today, but volume has picked up on the most recent drop off 37.47.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 3:09:35 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 2:52:45 PM

Talbots (TLB) $27.03 +4.52% ... gets mid-session lift from $26.40 with Sanders Morris upgrading to "buy" from "hold"

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 2:44:47 PM

Again, OEX bears want to see rollovers beneath 565 or maybe 565.30 and bulls want to see a push up toward 566-568.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 2:43:32 PM

The TRAN challenges 3600 again, at 3597.90 as I type. Three-minute MACD has absolutely flat-lined since about 11:00 this morning. We're not going to get many clues from indicators.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 2:38:47 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,597.19 +1.44% ... session high and challenges trending lower 21-day SMA (3,597.04)

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 2:37:20 PM

Yellow Corp. (YELL) $56.88 +2.28% ... new 52-weeker.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 2:36:54 PM

QQQQ intraday update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 2:35:21 PM

Crude oil looks to have settled above 48 at 48.15, possibly a key reversal above Friday's high. Bloomberg is attributing the end of session surge in crude oil prices to the Statistics Canada story, resulting in the possibility that the US Q4 GDP was in fact .2% higher than previously thought at 3.3%.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 2:31:23 PM

Minimal break of the OEX's H&S neckline here. Bears, watch out for a stop-running move that's quickly reversed. Bulls, keep your profit-protecting plan in place.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 2:26:28 PM

Session high for Nymex crude here at 48.10, +1.96%.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 2:27:15 PM

Okay, here's what I see: the OEX zoomed up but pauses beneath the converging 30- and 50-sma's, with those averages converging within the 566-568 S/R zone. The OEX's climb over the last week still looks like a potential bear flag. Nothing yet precludes that. The VIX dips dangerously low, perhaps, remembering that this is an unreliable market-timing tool. The advdec line is sky high, but is it high enough to be a contrarian measure? There's a potential H&S at the top of the OEX's climb.

Aggressive traders might be interested in a trial bearish play, but those interested in entering a bearish play now or on a break of that H&S neckline need to factor in the possibility of that gotta-do-it push up toward 566-568, that last gesture perhaps. Those in long plays should have profit-protecting plans in place already since the OEX has already come within cents of 566.

As I mentioned early this morning, I'm not good at picking tops, and that knowledge sometimes leads me to look for them too assiduously. If you're a bull, you're looking at that going-lower VIX and that strong advdec line and thinking more upside. Could happen.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 2:20:31 PM

Canadia Pacific Railway (CP) $33.85 +2.17% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 2:20:04 PM

QQQQ has bounced back, again, to 7200 tick SMA resistance at 37.45, currently trading 1 cent above it. The short cycle oscillators have just stalled in their downphase, with QQQQ returning to its 9:30AM levels. Still no direction, with both the 30 min and 60 min channels sliding sideways.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 2:16:11 PM

VIX.X 12.89 -2.64% ... quick move lower to session low.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 2:16:14 PM

The TRAN is at 3597.85, just below its high of the day. It hasn't given up yet. Watching this test of 3600.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 2:12:36 PM

Careful, bulls. Friday's VIX dip to this level was hit nearly concurrently with Friday's high of the day.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 2:10:54 PM

VIX heads to its LOD.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 2:09:09 PM

See the potential H&S here, complete with bearish divergence as the head was formed? Link It's still lacking a right shoulder, so watch for a potential move up toward 565, and then a roll down into a right shoulder and a confirming move through the neckline or else a rise up to 566-568 and an invalidation of the formation.

Of course, it's also possible to see this as only a rectangular consolidation pattern, with a break below 563.90 likely to send the OEX down another couple of points, toward 562.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 2:07:45 PM

The 30 min cycle channel is doing a slow roll, with price holding below 7200-tick SMA resistance at 37.45. Price has to break 37.38 in order to start the channel rolling more decisively.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 2:10:17 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link NYSE posting its largest number of NH this month (180 on 01/03/05)

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 2:01:19 PM

Maybe others are beginning to hear those clanking cow bells, too, Jeff. Smile. I'm just afraid we'll see another push up toward 566-568, but I would consider that part of a likely reversal-in-progress development. I'm seeing some Keltner-style bearish divergences beginning to show up with each swing high. I've been pretty vocal about the possibility that the OEX could still be forming a right shoulder, and that a push up toward 566-568 didn't preclude that, but that we could then see a couple of days of flat trading as the right shoulder was formed. This stubborn necessity of mine to see evidence before suggesting such a rollover is in progress keeps me from catching some tops, as I mentioned this morning.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 1:55:37 PM

The OEX attempts a bounce from within that 563.65-564.16 zone I mentioned in previous posts. It's the shape, duration, and height of this bounce that will tell us more of what we need to know. Bears want to see a rollover beneath 565, bulls want to see a push above that, up to 566-568, but if that push does occur, bulls need to have a profit-protecting plan in place, as I mentioned earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 1:55:05 PM

QQQQ intraday chart and trendline update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 1:50:54 PM

Session high for crude oil here at 47.35, up 17.5 cents and just going green.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 1:49:30 PM

I don't know about "screaming" Linda, but the XBD.X 150.00 +1.95% is at its best levels of the session. (see 11:40:45) Mabye the clanking of some cow bells.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 1:44:55 PM

I'm still not seeing anything that screams "reversal in progress" for the OEX. I see a potential for a drop to just below 562, but it doesn't yet look like a probable drop. Just a possible one. It looks likely that we may see a bounce from 563.65-564.16, as I just mentioned in a previous post, and it may be the height of and behavior of that bounce, if it occurs, that tells the tale. I keep expecting a last push up toward 566-568, at least, but then also remember that every single candle over the previous six trading sessions has left an upper shadow as the OEX closed off its high of the day.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 1:40:54 PM

The OEX is drifting down toward that Keltner support mentioned in earlier posts. How strong is that support? Lines are not converging, so that it's not certain how strong that support might be. It certainly looks possible for the OEX to drift as low at 563.62 (on a three-minute closing basis) or even lower, toward 561.87, although I can't yet say that either is probable. I do think it's probable that we'll see an at-least-temporary bounce from somewhere between 563.62-564.15, but the speed of that bounce and other factors will impact how Keltner lines arrange themselves afterwards, and whether the bounce continues or the OEX rolls down again toward the 561.90 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 1:37:24 PM

QQQQ is back within this morning's flat rectangle, with 7200-tick SMA support now breached on the move below 37.47. 1st support is 37.38, below which the 37.33 rectangle support comes back into play.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 1:29:19 PM

The TRAN still rises, perhaps drawn toward 3600.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 1:27:15 PM

Possible upward revision of U.S. GDP ... U.S. Commerce official saying errors "appear likely" in GDP due to possible errors by the Canadian reporting agency. Statscan (Statistics Canada) has said it underreported imports from the U.S.. Early estimates are showing fixing of errors may add 0.5% to U.S. Q4 GDP.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 1:21:21 PM

The TRAN is still rising, but that rise doesn't look healthy so far. It rises in a thin twig-like climb that looks as if it could be easily snapped.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 1:20:15 PM

The Dow falls out of that rising regression channel mentioned in my 1:17 post.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 1:17:10 PM

Watch this rising regression channel on the Dow, to see if it continues hammering at 10,500 from within the channel or breaks support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 1:16:30 PM

Headlines:

1:15pm HILLARY CLINTON COLLAPSES DURING BUFFALO, NY SPEECH -AP

1:15pm HILLARY CLINTON TAKEN TO HOSPITAL AFTER COLLAPSING - AP

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 1:14:47 PM

Wilshire 5000 ($DWC.X) 11,628.50 +0.84% Link ... challenges trending lower 21-day SMA (11,637.88) in today's session, but unable to get above at this point. Closes above this short-term SMA have seen meaningful short and longer-term building of gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 1:05:39 PM

Volume has fallen off sharply with price stalling above 37.47 QQQQ. The ten year note yield has moved back up off its lows, +1.7 bps at 4.155%, with 4.14% support so far holding.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 1:03:02 PM

Here's the decline that the three-minute Keltner channels predicted for the OEX (see my 12:52 post). Potential support is now at 564.68-564.84 and again at 563.36-564.01.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 1:09:45 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 12:52:38 PM

Without a strong surge higher, the OEX again looks vulnerable to a decline toward 564.61 or 563.27-563.96 before it gets much higher than 565.38, at least according to the three-minute Keltner charts.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 12:50:48 PM

I don't know about the other writers, but I'm still receiving only scattered emails, and apologize if you've sent me an email and have not received a reply.

Tab Gilles : 1/31/2005 12:50:06 PM

Light Crude is testing Friday's lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 12:46:37 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.93 +0.46% .... April $105 Calls (DIA-DA) getting some action (753:128) with Avg. h/l/c $2.22. The out-the-money Feb. $107 calls (DIA-BC) are crossed at $0.25 and second-most active at 234:9,723.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 12:42:22 PM

QQQQ held above 37.47, and is retesting the highs. The 30 min channel has perked up again, with channel resistance rising to 37.57 and support rising to 37.35.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 12:38:11 PM

The Nasdaq is once again at its 60-minute 100-ema, an average that's been topping out its 60-minute candles on 60-minute closes all day. That average is now at 2062.72 and the Nasdaq is now at 2061.85. It needs to follow some other indices over the 60-minute 100/130-ema's.

The TRAN still tests its 60-minute 100/130-ema's, and the OEX has produced a couple of 60-minute closes above them, although it perhaps heads back to retest them now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 12:35:44 PM

SPX 1,181.55 +0.86% ... those Feb 1,150 calls (SPT-BJ) bidding $32.90 x $34.90. (see 01/27/05 12:49:53) as SPX.X achieves the objective.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 12:33:13 PM

The OEX has achieved a new day's high in a sort of test of 566-568. As I mentioned earlier (11:17 post), I thought it likely there might be a test of that zone, now that the OEX was so close, but I don't feel so confident of what might happen after this current test. Some indices are at higher highs (two S&P's), some are at equal highs (TRAN), some at lower highs (Dow and Nasdaq, so far). All show potential bearish price/MACD divergence.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 12:28:34 PM

QQQQ has broken the upper rectangle resistance, breaking to a nominal new high at 37.53 QQQQ. 37.47 should now act as support.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 12:58:54 PM

Swing trade sell naked put alert ... sell five (5) more of the DIA Feb. $103 Puts (DIA-NY) at the bid of $0.40.

DIA $104.93 +0.45% here.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 12:24:09 PM

The Nasdaq is trying another upside breakout now, beginning just about the time I posted the 12:22 post that it hadn't been able to stay above the previous triangle's resistance. Smile. That's the kind of day it is.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 12:23:57 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,180.50 +0.78%, QQQQ $37.45 +1.45%, DIA $104.89 +0.44%

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 12:23:10 PM

Feb. Fed Funds futures (ff05g) 94.495 ... forecasting 100% probability of 25 basis point rate hike at conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 12:22:50 PM

The Nasdaq couldn't stay above the triangle resistance I pointed out in my 11:36 post, instead just reforming another triangle.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 12:18:30 PM

The rollover from 37.47 targets rectangle support at 37.33. The short cycle channel has rolled over, again, but within this 14 cent range for the past 2 hours, the oscillators are simply sliding sideways.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 12:15:49 PM

Session high for Nymex crude here at 47.125, still negative but only by a nickel.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 12:14:58 PM

Even one-minute candles are so miniscule that it's difficult to see them.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 12:11:56 PM

For reference, the OEX's 50-dma is at 566.51 and the 30-dma is at 567.27, both within the 566-568 S/R zone.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 12:11:53 PM

TRIN 0.89 -32.57% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 12:10:04 PM

The three-minute Keltner chart continues to show short-term resistance looking stronger than short-term support for the OEX, predicting the current rounding over. Next support is at the OEX's current 564.50-ish level, then at 564.17 and 562.79-563.53.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 12:10:51 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 11:59:47 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.81 +0.35% ... Daily interval bar chart with updated MONTHLY/WEEKLY pivot retracement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 11:58:25 AM

QQQQ intraday chart with rectangle trendlines at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 11:54:42 AM

After bouncing from the 50% retracement of the day's range, the TRAN climbs again into the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, testing them as I type. The day's high has been 3590.51 and the TRAN is currently at 3578.41. Watching the equal high level.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 11:46:40 AM

The Nasdaq broke minimally over the top of that formation depicted in my 11:36 post, then traded sideways, a warning sign that the upside break might not hold. However, it's now trying to rise, but the emphasis has to be on "trying."

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 11:46:31 AM

QQQQ is testing upper intraday rectangle resistance right here at 37.47. 30 min and 60 min channel resistance at flat at 37.55, if this resistance level breaks.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 11:44:30 AM

The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart now suggests that without a strong upward surge soon, resistance is going to prove stronger than nearby support over the short-term, and the OEX is vulnerable to a decline, perhaps only to 564.42 but perhaps to 563.93 or even 562.48-563.18.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 11:50:43 AM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 619.23 +1.01% ... challenges its trending lower 21-day SMA (618.29) again today. Looks at least 630-ish doesn't it. RUT.X with previously shown Nov-May seasonal bullish gain retracement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 11:40:45 AM

TRIN 0.99

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 11:37:52 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 149.15 +1.37% ... testing upper end of a "zone of resistance" as MACD crosses above signal, but still just under zero. Link Bullish implications above 150.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 11:36:49 AM

The Nasdaq's pattern at the top of its climb is a little clearer than that on some other indices: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 11:33:52 AM

Nymex crude is up to a .675 or 1.43% loss at 46.50, off its low of 46.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 11:30:54 AM

Another failure for QQQQ below the 37.47 line, resulting in an intraday rectangle between 37.33 and 37.47.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 11:18:09 AM

The strength in bonds/decline in yields has gold, QQQQ and foreign currencies bouncing from their most recent lows. QQQQ is coming in for a test of short cycle channel resistance at 37.44.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 11:17:13 AM

I don't know about you, but I'd consider that H&S on the OEX's three-minute chart invalidated now. There's the possibility that there's a bearish right triangle forming with support near 563.90, but there's also the possibility that what we're seeing now is a bull flag. Depends on your bias as to how you interpret what you're seeing. The advdec line has been generally sloping lower off the day's high (but bull flag there, too?), with VIX and TRIN coiling.

Since I've had the feeling that the OEX might need to test 566-568 and get that out of the way, I guess I'd have to reluctantly weigh in on the bull-flag camp, but I'm not so sure how much more upside there is. Bulls should be following the OEX higher with their stops.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 11:14:16 AM

Session high for ten year treasuries here, TNX +.6 bps at 4.144%.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 11:08:32 AM

Barely got that last post uploaded before the OEX did start moving down toward the neckline of that H&S on the three-minute chart before heading up again. That neckline is now at about 563.60. Keltners suggest a retest of 564.39 before we know whether the OEX will indeed test the neckline.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 11:06:01 AM

Has the OEX's H&S on the three-minute chart been invalidated? I'll let you look at a line chart and judge for yourselves: Link Maybe it's not quite invalidated, but that right shoulder is certainly extending out to the side more than bears would like. It's close to being invalidated, but Keltners now suggest a possibility that the neckline will be tested after all.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 11:11:37 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 11:01:48 AM

The TRAN has now retraced almost 50% of its day's range. This should be a potential bounce point, but so far, the bounces have looked corrective while the declines off the high have not. Not a great sign for market bulls unless the TRAN can marshal some strength here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 10:58:29 AM

Despite the steep bounce off 37.35, QQQQ sputtered out at a lower high, never revisiting 37.50. That lower high has the 30 min cycle channel showing a downtick, no longer rising. A break below 37.35 would be the next step in setting up a new 30 min cycle downphase, but given the large gains already today, bears will want to see 37.20 broken before trusting any selling. The Fed's 2B net add is another bullish factor to consider.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:53:38 AM

TRAN still dropping. If it's leading the Dow and two S&P's, as it sometimes does, it's leading them down.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:52:04 AM

If the OEX doesn't round down soon and confirm that H&S on the three-minute chart, the formation will likely be invalidated. For now, it looks as if the Keltner support I mentioned in the 10:36 post is winning out over the bears' resolve. Still have a couple of three-minute candles but beyond that, I'd likely consider the formation invalidated. Neckline now at about 563.76, so dropping ever close to the 563.55 level.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:43:40 AM

This morning, I'm dialing up from an examination of the indices with respect to their 30-minute 21/100/130-ema's to their behavior with respect to the 60-minute versions (21-ema in red, 100-ema in blue, 130-ema in green). Here's the TRAN: Link Here's the OEX, with the red horizontal trendline at 563.55: Link And here's the Dow: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 10:41:18 AM

30-year reverses losses with yield ($TYX.X) now down 1.0 bp at 4.599%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 10:40:31 AM

Oil Service (OSX.X) $127.75 +0.12% ... bids back green.

Homebuilders 807 -1.38% and Gold Bugs 200.47 -0.76% sector weakness.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:36:52 AM

The OEX's formation is still within keeping for a potential H&S--still in the right-shoulder area (three-minute chart). However, Keltner support absolutely masses at the neckline area on the three-minute chart. Bears wanna send it down; bulls marshal forces. No idea which will win. The neckline has now dropped to 563.89. Remember the 563.55 potential support.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:34:32 AM

The TRAN is now almost 17 points off its high of the day, approaching potential Keltner support near 3567-3572, with the TRAN at 3574.01 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:32:55 AM

The OEX bounces from the Keltner support outlined earlier (three-minute chart), but there's the potential now for a H&S on that chart, neckline currently at about 563.97. There's lots of potential support in that 563.55 level. The OEX spent a week trying to break above that level, so if you're feeling bearish and acting on that feeling, be careful of support there. Not a lot of support for the idea of a rollover just yet, so if you've entered a bearish play, you're likely confident of a pop-and-drop play. I'm watchful for that possibility but far from confident. Sentiment-wise, I wouldn't be surprised to see a push up toward 566-568, the zone that also includes the 30 and 50-sma's on the daily chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 10:31:06 AM

A break above the 37.50 high targets current 30 min channel resistance at 37.57 QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 10:27:06 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 10:24:22 AM

And just broke it.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 10:23:54 AM

QQQQ is testing 37.37 support within the rising 30 min channel.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:22:09 AM

Thanks, Jonathan, for the info in the 10:16 post. I knew that anything above the 50% level indicated expansion, of course, but hoped that the number would provide enough of a nudge one direction or the other to stop the breath-holding at the top of the range.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:19:38 AM

The OEX still resists confirming that double-top formation, one that would set a downside target at about 563.35 . . . there goes the confirmation as I type, and the OEX heads to the level suggested by the three-minute Keltner channel and noted in my 10:17 post. Potential support nearing. Bulls want it to hold and want to see the OEX hold above 563.55.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 10:18:18 AM

Sirva (SIR) $8.90 -38% ... plunges after the global relocation services provider said it will not meet its previously issued earnings guidance for Q4 2004 due to certain unanticipated charges. Now sees a net loss per fully diluted share from continuing operations of between $0.16-$0.20 versus previous guidance for a gain of between $0.16-$0.17 per share. For full year 2004, SIR expects earnings of $0.49-$0.53 per share.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:17:07 AM

On the three-minute Keltner chart, the OEX looks vulnerable to a pullback to 563.60-564.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 10:16:09 AM

Linda, remember that the Chicago PMI is a diffusion index- anything over 50% is supposed to indicate expansion. It's been over 50% for roughly 2 years now. Either way, I don't think that this one's a major report/market mover.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:14:27 AM

I'm reading something I hadn't realized or had forgotten: there's an early, private release of the PMI data. We should remember that for the next release. However, after a surprise-to-the-upside 62.9 number that nevertheless was the lowest in four months, there's no building on early gains. The OEX is testing the confirmation level of a double-top on the three-minute chart, with that confirmation on a move below 564.38.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:07:30 AM

The TRAN has been climbing, reaching a high of 3590.51 so far. It's at 3587.58 as I type. There's resistance at 3590-3595.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 10:07:48 AM

Cendant (CD) $23.42 +1.60% ... challenging formidable resistance at the $23.50 level (Dec/Jan highs).

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 10:06:32 AM

Bonds are holding their losses, TNX +2.1 bps at 4.159%. Crude oil has reopened and is higher, now down 92.5 or 1.96% at 46.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 10:03:47 AM

Session high for QQQQ, reaching for current 30 min channel resistance of 37.51. QQQQ is bullish above 37.37-.40. A move below 37.27 would stall the ongoing 30 min cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 10:13:20 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link Friday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 10:02:37 AM

Potential double top on the OEX's one-minute chart . . . should have either confirmation or rejection momentarily.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 10:01:55 AM

Chicago PMI 62.4 vs. 59 expected.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 10:01:21 AM

Headlines:

10:00am U.S. NOV. NEW HOME SALES REVISED LOWER TO 1.097M

10:00am U.S. DEC. MEDIAN HOME SALES PRICE UP 13.2% TO $222,000

10:00am U.S. DEC. NEW HOME INVENTORY AT 31-YEAR HIGH OF 432,000

10:00am U.S. 2004 NEW HOME SALES UP 9% TO RECORD 1.086 MILLION

10:00am U.S. DEC NEW HOME SALES FLAT AT 1.098M V 1.18M EXPECTED

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 9:58:45 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,179.33, QQQQ $37.40, DIA $104.89

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 9:56:31 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced an 8.25B overnight repo against 6.25B expiring, for a net add of 2B. The 10AM Chicago PMI and New Home Sales data are due in 3 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 9:53:33 AM

VIX.X 13.21 -0.22% .... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.48, 12.86, Piv = 13.21, 13.59, 13.94

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 9:53:17 AM

I'm not good at trading pop-and-drop days. I'm a trader who wants some evidence supporting a play, so I'm not the kind to just hit a certain level with a trade. I miss a lot of them because I don't get the confirmation I want. I don't get a second test of a high with bearish divergence or a coiling into a symmetrical triangle that breaks to the downside or any of the other innumerable signs that can occur but often don't. So, take that into mind when reading my commentary today. Each of us has strong points and weak points as traders and I have no trouble admitting that's a weak point for me.

That's not advice to jump in with a bearish play. I'm not saying that I think it's likely that we'll have one. I consider it a possibility and I'm watching for signs, but so far not seeing any confirmation other than a jump in the VIX (soon erased) and the direction of TRIN. Taken ahead of an economic release, however, that's unfortunately not enough confirmation for me.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 9:50:07 AM

Noven Pharmaceuticals (NOVN) $18.18 +18.05% ... upgraded to "outperform" from "sector perform" at RBC with bullish target of $24. RBC's upgrad comes following the FDA's decision to reject the citizen petitiions seeking to delay and/or block the approval of ANDA's filing for the approval of generic Duragesic, which also resulted in the final approval of Myland's ANDA. In RBC's view, there should now be little doubt that the timing of approval for the other generic filers is application specific.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 9:45:40 AM

QQQQ continues to hold 37.30 support, with only quick doji spikes below. Current short cycle support is at 37.27. Any short cycle weakness should be corrective within the rising 30 min channel- a move below 37.20 would stall that upphase.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 9:44:51 AM

A 38.2% retracement of the OEX's day's range so far would be just below 564 and a 50% retracement would be at that old familiar (from last week) 563.55. Bulls want to see any pullback look corrective and stay above that 563.55 level.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 9:43:33 AM

March Crude Oil (cl05h) $46.15 -2.18% (30-minute delayed) ... lower without further pipeline sabotage or disruption of oil supplies after Iraq elections, where nearly 60% of eligible votors turned out. OPEC agreed to keep output quotas at 27 million barrels per day and may raise production in the second quarter.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 9:53:45 AM

Careful, bulls, of a possible pop-and-drop day. Keep a watch on the internals and on Jane's commentary on the Futures side about internals. She graphs them carefully with respect to previous days' ranges. Here's what I notice, though: the VIX is attempting, with emphasis on "attempting" to climb off the first low; TRIN is so far climbing, although I think Jane would might consider this still too soon to consider its early volatility over; and the advdec level is so high that we're either going to have a blow-out upside day or this is a contrarian measure. That would be true if everyone who might be remotely interested in buying is doing it right this moment, as represented by the current +3200 level in the advdec line.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 9:40:49 AM

Sessionlow for gold here, -4.4 at 421.50 with HUI down .53% at 200.92. Crude oil closed the morning down 2.33% at 46.075.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 9:38:20 AM

Oshkosh Truck (OSK) $73.45 +2.22% ... 52-weeker

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 9:37:14 AM

SOX hasn't made it above Friday's high yet. It's close, but not there yet.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 9:35:15 AM

BIIG move past the OEX's 30-minute 100/130-ema's, past what would have been the neckline for an inverse H&S if it hadn't been invalidated last week by a too-prolonged sideways trading. Bulls want to see 563.55 hold on pullbacks. For new bulls' sakes, I hope this isn't a day when we just saw most of the move and then prices drift either sideways or sideways to slightly up the rest of the day. Or worse . . . crater. Watch 566-568 for next resistance. Bulls should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of that zone in case that's it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 9:34:12 AM

SBC Communications (SBC) $23.55 -0.29% to buy AT&T $18.67 -5.27% in a stock and cash deal valued at $16 billion.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 9:30:03 AM

The 30 min cycle is trying to turn up for QQQQ, with a bullish Macd divergence. It is already underway for the NQ futures based on the overnight strength. With the daily cycle oversold and trying to turn up, strength this morning should not be ignored- if the bulls can hold a close above 37.40, then the new daily cycle upphase will kick off.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2005 9:23:09 AM

Monday's program trading levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $1.35 and set for program selling at $-0.85.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 8:55:56 AM

The OEX still looks as if it's rounding over beneath 564, but this week should tell us whether that rounding-over process will continue or the OEX will break higher. If it does break higher, 566-568 looks like firm resistance, and if it rounds down, 557 may be first potential support. All week last week, the OEX produced 30-minute closes beneath the 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 561.96 and 562.58, although they were pierced during various 30-minute periods and tested often through the middle of the week. It appears important to watch the OEX's behavior with regard to those benchmarks, then, and that's what we'll do this morning. Thirty-minute closes above those averages will be a change in trend, and might suggest a climb up toward 566-568, with the emphasis on "might," with the 564 level looking important on some Keltner charts, too. We have a week replete with potential economic fireworks, including a G-7 meeting, the FOMC meeting beginning tomorrow, and various economic releases here and abroad, so there's lots of opportunity for strange market behavior. Those looking for bearish positions could again watch for rollovers beneath the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. Those considering either position want to have as much corroborating evidence as possible (divergences, internals, chart developments) and even then must face the possibility of continued choppy behavior.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 8:33:29 AM

The markets are greeting the data with a yawn, equities slightly lower with QQQQ up .38 at 37.30 here. Bonds have strengthened slightly, TNX +1.5 bps at 4.135%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 8:31:45 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. DEC. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE 3.4%

8:30am U.S. DEC. WAGES, SALARIES UP 0.4%

8:30am U.S. DEC. PCE PRICE INDEX FALLS 0.1%

8:30am U.S. DEC. PCE CORE PRICE INDEX FLAT

8:30am U.S. DEC. CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.8% AS EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. DEC. INCOMES EX-GATES UP 3.3%

8:30am U.S. DEC. INCOMES EX-MICROSOFT UP 0.6%

8:30am U.S. DEC. INCOMES BOOSTED BY MICROSOFT DIVIDEND

8:30am U.S. DEC. PERSONAL INCOMES RISE RECORD 3.7%

Jonathan Levinson : 1/31/2005 7:49:45 AM

Equities are broadly higher, ES 1179.75, NQ 1519.5, YM 10491 and QQQQ +.42 at 37.34. Gold is down 1.5 to 424.4, silver -.027 to 6.76, ten year notes down .1719 to 112 5/64 and crude oil down 1.75% to 46.35.

We await the 8:30 release of personal income, est. 3.4%, and personal spending, est. 0.8%.

Linda Piazza : 1/31/2005 7:00:07 AM

Good morning. Much occurred this weekend, including Iraqi elections and an OPEC meeting. Rhetoric about currencies heats up ahead of this week's G-7 economic meeting in London. Much happens this week, including that G-7 meeting and an FOMC meeting. In the overnight session, however, relief over the conclusion of the Iraqi elections and the easing in crude prices cheered investors. The Nikkei posted a 0.59% gain, and most other Asian markets gained. China's Shanghai Composite closed lower by 1.80%, perhaps affected by building European and U.S. pressure to uncouple its yuan from the dollar. European markets mostly turn higher. Our futures are higher, drifting sideways to slightly lower through the night. As of 6:12 EST, gold was down $1.80, and crude, down $1.03 to $46.18. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Despite an early test of the flat-line level, the Nikkei could not maintain positive values in early trading Monday, but the afternoon presented a different picture. The Nikkei soared as the afternoon session opened, but then rolled gently down, still closing higher by 67.01 points or 0.59%, at 11,387.59. In the morning session, several factors impacted trading. Fujitsu trimmed its earnings forecast for the full year, and NTT had reported Friday that Q4 operating profits declined 19%. Toshiba dropped ahead of it earnings report later in the day and closed lower by 1.2%. Honda and Canon, however, benefited from their earnings report, with both predicting record profits for 2005. By the close of the day, many auto makers had risen. As often happens, Mitsubishi Motors did not participate in those gains, falling 4.7% as new details were released about its restructuring.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but most markets commonly watched in this report gained as oil dropped and the Iraqi elections concluded. Many Asian techs gained. The Taiwan Weighted closed higher by 1.94%, and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.21%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.33%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.52%. China's Shanghai Composite continues to turn lower, dropping 1.80% and closing below 1,200 at 1,191.823.

Most European markets turn higher this morning, also benefiting from the conclusion of the Iraqi elections and the OPEC meeting and the resultant dip in crude. Automakers and airlines tend to climb. DaimlerChrysler outperformed after the government of Kuwait took another $1 billion stake. Low-cost airline Ryanair soared after earnings that weren't as bad as many had feared. In other sectors, some stocks reacted to specific news. Exchange Euronext climbed after speculation that the French government is trying to force the exchange to walk away from its bid to acquire the London Stock Exchange. Pharmaceutical group Bayer spun off a chemicals unit and was the biggest loser on the DAX early in the morning. EADS was the first recipient of a commitment by a Chinese carrier to buy A380s and gained as a result.

As of 6:34 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 31.40 points or 0.65%, to 4,864.20. The CAC 40 had gained 33.11 points or 0.86%, to 3,903.46. The DAX had gained 48.49 points or 1.15%, to 4,250.30.

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