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Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 10:04:26 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.22 and set for program selling at $-0.80.

OI Technical Staff : 2/1/2005 10:00:00 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 9:02:08 PM

March Crude Oil (cl05h) ... getting some action at the bid of $46.97 and session low. Down $0.15, or -0.31%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 8:34:53 PM

Adobe Systems (ADBE) $57.90 +1.75% ... last tick at $59.45 after guiding Feb. quarter higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 6:20:36 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Microsoft (MSFT) at the offer of $26.41, stop $26.30, target $26.80. Looks like the QQQQ may want to fill that 01/19/05 gap to $38.06. MONTHLY Pivot at $38.05.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 5:58:15 PM

QQQQ $37.52 +0.32% ... higher at $37.69.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 5:57:36 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $34.75 -1.30% ... higher at $35.33

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 5:57:05 PM

Google (GOOG) $191.90 -1.90% .... nice pop to $209.19 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 5:40:00 PM

Closing Market Watch at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link Volume builds at the big board as does the shorter-term 5-day NH/NL ratio as bullish leadership returns with a vengance. Within the Pivot Matrix, the BIX.X Link is "screaming" for a steepening yield curve, where flattening/steepening may well be marked with tomorrow's correlations for the 10-year yield ($TNX.X). FOMC tomorrow, with decision on rates in the afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 4:42:58 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles I've made at this Link Today's activity ... Day trade long Intel (INTC) at $22.47, stopped $22.57 as session high of $22.75 didn't quite achieve target of $22.81. ($0.10, or 0.45%)

Marc Eckelberry : 2/1/2005 4:33:28 PM

EBAY was not able to hold onto 80. Note that I mentioned last week the failure of a bounce to stay above 83 would lead to a break of 80 eventually and a test of 71/72 area, which is now looking more and more real. If you want to chase this rally, I would not do it with EBAY, at least not until it tests the low 70"s.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 4:11:20 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.35 ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 4:09:24 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.46 ... might be some options market makers still trying to get long after all the put selling and call buying today. VIX.X 12.05 -6.0%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 4:02:30 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.35, SPY $118.80

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 4:00:59 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.38 +0.50% ... holding DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 4:00:22 PM

Not a single buy/sell program premium today. Not yet at least.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 4:11:49 PM

Western Digital (WDC) $11.30 +4.82% ... nice break above 2-month resistance of $11.00 today. The previously noted reverse head/shoulder objective at approx. $12.60.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:55:52 PM

Was this just a gap test on the Nasdaq? To be answered tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:54:15 PM

TXN appears to be closing right at its linked 50-sma and 200-ema after punching above them today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 3:53:32 PM

QQQQ's retesting 37.55 resistance here. 37.60 is current upper 30 min channel resistance.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:53:14 PM

The TRAN isn't bouncing along with other indices or at least not to the same degree.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:51:46 PM

Will they or won't they hold the OEX above the converging 30- and 50-dma's into the close? I still believe there will be an attempt to do so and to hold the OEX near this level into the FOMC meeting conclusion tomorrow. By the way, remember this chart from this morning? Link See where the OEX bounced? Bears know what their first task will be--breaking that steeply ascending trendline and then the horizontal one just under 564. If the OEX should retreat to that horizontal trendline (not likely today), however, I'd expect at least a bounce attempt, perhaps back up to 566.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 3:49:49 PM

The 30 min cycle downphase has kicked off for QQQQ, complete with bearish divergences. Still waiting for that retest of 37.37, however, to rule out a purely sideways/corrective downphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:37:50 PM

The TRAN is at 3599.63, approaching possible Keltner support at 3597.51.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 3:30:01 PM

The failure below 37.55 bodes ill for the 30 min cycle, which is beginning to keel over. The last low missed the 37.36-.38 by a nickel. The short cycle is still pointing south, and the lower high beneath 37.55 suggests that there's more downside yet to come.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:29:27 PM

I know the OEX has climbed today and I know that I've said this before, but take a look at these 60-minute candles. That just is not the picture of strength: Link Perhaps it predicts only a pullback to 566 or perhaps only to 564-565 where the 21-ema, and 100/130-ema's converge, but it sure looks like it predicts a pullback somewhere, sometime. Maybe into the close or maybe tomorrow. Bulls, have your profit-protecting plans in mind.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:24:37 PM

Still watching a potential H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:21:27 PM

The VIX is getting so low. At 12.08, it's back to levels not seen since late December. Again, this isn't a market-timing tool, especially as the VIX moved lower than 12.00 during that late December period, but still a bit scary for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 3:21:13 PM

March Crude Oil futures (cl05h) settled down $1.08, or 2.24% at ..... $47.12. Just on top of the $46.20-$47.10 "zone of support". $47.10 is 50% of 08/30/04 low to contract high of $54.00 found on 10/27/04.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:18:01 PM

Potential H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart. Neckline at about 567.50. Downside target about 566.00 if confirmed.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 3:16:00 PM

QQQQ broke the previous low and is bouncing from 30 min channel support at 37.44. A failure to regain 37.55 will see this channel keel over within 10 minutes, setting up the long awaited retest of the session low. Volume is still dismal, however, at 61.6M QQQQs here.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:12:33 PM

The TRAN rounds down toward 3600, at 3602.88 as I type. Support gathers from 3597.05-3600.93.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:10:46 PM

And here's the decline the Keltner channels suggested. Resistance builds from 568.05-568.44. Support is thinner, but exists from 566.12-566.81.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 3:08:51 PM

QQQQ intraday chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:06:51 PM

I would imagine there's going to be a push to hold the OEX above its 50-sma into the close. Just a guess, but there seems to have been an impetus to get it there today, despite all those bearish divergences, etc. If it can't be held there into the close, that perhaps says something about bullish strength or lack of bullish strength.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 3:06:03 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for Intel (INTC) $22.57. ($0.10, or +0.45%)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 3:03:47 PM

QQQQ is coming in for a test of the 12:45AM low at 37.47. A break below that level tarets the 37.36-.38 confluence, with 30 min channel support currently above it at 37.45. QQQQ is unchanged from its opening levels today- feels like opex week again.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 3:13:05 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 3:01:44 PM

The OEX is beginning to round down under Keltner resistance that's now the firmest it's looked all day on the five-minute chart. The OEX needs a strong push now or else that resistance will firm more. A strong push is not impossible, of course. For now, resistance looks much stronger than support, so that it looks less likely that the OEX will climb much higher than 568.71 than that it will decline over the short term. OEX 566.06-566.83 look possible.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 2:55:25 PM

The TRAN dropped, too, but of course those drops look exaggerated on the one-minute chart. Some indices are beginning to take on a rounding-top look on 15-minute charts, however, and bulls would probably rather a bull-flag pullback to a gradual rounding over. On the five-minute chart, the TRAN's upper Keltner resistance still rises, so it's possible that the TRAN can rise, too, but there's that pesky (today it's pesky because it's not predictive of behavior) Keltner-style bearish divergence showing up on that chart.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 2:49:39 PM

Knocked offline for a while and I come back just in time to see the OEX near to confirmation of a double-top on the one-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 2:43:42 PM

30-year yield ($TYX.X) back to unchanged. Intra-day yield curve still flat as 5-year unchanged.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 2:41:28 PM

VIX.X 12.02 -6.24% ... another plunge ... session lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 2:40:11 PM

54.4M QQQQ shares' volume traded so far today, compared with yeterday's 89.4M shares total and an average daily volume of 96.1M shares.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 2:28:25 PM

Keltner support looks strong at 560.09-568.30 for the OEX. Bulls want to see that hold, although nothing has stopped the OEX so far today. So much for my supposition that the OEX might see choppy trading conditions today. That's not what the intraday charts show. You do need some kind of bias going into the day, but when the OEX moved easily above the 50-dma early this morning, that bias was put into question. The 570-571 upside target for the inverse H&S shown on an earlier chart became a possibility although 566-568 had looked stronger than it's turned out to be. We still have to see what happens on the close today, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 2:24:49 PM

The 30 min chart shows a bearish divergence developing, with today's higher price high so far matched by a lower stochastic high. A break below 37.38 for 10 mins or better should be enough to kick off that bearish divergence 30 min cycle downphase- until that occurs, it's only a potential divergence, however, with the intraday trend still up.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 2:16:13 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.57 +0.73% ... session high. Pricing out some NAKED Feb. $107 calls.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 2:14:46 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 83.47 -0.14% (30-minute delayed) ... follows crude oil lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 2:14:08 PM

QQQQ is retesting the session highs at 37.65 here, back into the rising wedge apex. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 2:10:17 PM

Nymex crude has widened its loss, currently down 1.76% at 47.35 but finding support at the 50% retracement of yesterday's rise: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 2:04:44 PM

New high for the OEX, and it's slightly above the 566-568 S/R zone. The Keltner channels had suggested that the OEX would break either to the upside or the downside, but this push higher hasn't been particularly spectacular yet. (Bulls gleefully counting gains today won't necessarily agree.) Bulls do not want to see a strong push to the downside erasing these gains, particularly if it pushes the OeX below 567.50 and holds it there.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 2:03:31 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert for Intel (INTC) $22.70 +1.11% to $22.57.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 2:13:46 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 1:59:02 PM

Volume remains postively dismal at 48.1M QQQQ shares, with QQQQ still hugging the lower rising bear wedge line. The 30 min cycle band shows signs of a rollover, but we need to see a break below 37.55 to get the ball rolling.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 1:57:29 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 373.63 +1.05% ... powering higher still. Session highs. Making way above correlative MONTHLY Pivot/WEEKLY R2 "resistance."

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 1:47:24 PM

Keltner channel lines squeeze around the OEX. It will soon be time for a breakout or breakdown, they suggest, right on time for the usual stop-running time of day.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 1:36:10 PM

AET is extending its gains now up more than 3% to $131.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 1:34:52 PM

QQQQ is hugging the bottom of the rising wedge now- this is the same setup that broke to the downside yesterday. If not for the daily cycle upphase, I'd be more confident of a repeat of that outcome.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 1:29:08 PM

The shipping/oil tanker industry is still showing strength today.

FRO is up 1.8% and breaking out over its 50-dma with a potential short-term bottom in place over the last month.

TK is up 3% and breaking out over resistance at $45.00 and its 50 & 100-dma's.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 1:29:27 PM

On this chart, the question mark is the same place it's been for a week. Link It's not a surprise that the OEX got here, so why does it feel so different (so much more bullish) once it did? It's just human nature, but the truth is that this remains a potential right-shoulder level, that we don't know whether the formation will be confirmed or invalidated, both possibilities, or even whether the OEX could be parked here for another few days at least before we know, also a possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 1:28:21 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Intel (INTC) $22.60 +0.66% to break even.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 1:26:46 PM

30-year yield ($TYX.X) down 1.0 bp at 4.580%. Found some selling this morning on undercutting of DAILY S1 (4.577%).

James Brown : 2/1/2005 1:25:59 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) is enjoying another 6.5% rally on top of yesterday's breakout.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 1:20:48 PM

Hmm. Missed this, but the OEX also had a one-minute H&S, confirmed, 567-ish downside target not yet met. I missed it because the right shoulder was equal to the head because the neckline slanted strongly upward.

It may be dangerous to micro-manage today with the potential for the OEX to stall near here, but maybe not pull back all that much ahead of the FOMC meeting conclusion tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 1:17:50 PM

The TRAN has now exceeded its downside target for the H&S on its one-minute chart, but it remains above 3600.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 1:13:05 PM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 1:14:23 PM

Intel (INTC) $22.52 +0.31% ... best levels of session. WEEKLY R1 ahead at $22.59. SOX.X 408.60 +1.14% ... already tested its WEEKLY R1, gets an intra-day bounce from 407.87

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 1:12:10 PM

VIX.X alert! 12.48 -2.58% ... session low and approaches WEEKLY S1 here. SPX 1,187.64, OEX 567.69, QQQQ $37.56, DIA $105.38

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 1:07:16 PM

Volume remains very low, with just 44.3M QQQQs traded so far today.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 1:04:14 PM

Two thirty-minute OEX candles with upper shadows. Time to pull back to test that broken resistance to see if it holds as support? Watch the 50 and 30-sma's on any pullback, with the 50-sma at 566.55 and the 30-sma at 567.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 1:08:51 PM

01:00 Market Watch Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 3:39:34 PM

Resource Connections (RECN) $46.05 -9.54% ... trouble fining bid today. Stock lower in sympathy with Manpower (MAN) $43.35 -10.9%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 12:55:26 PM

QQQQ's retesting 37.55 from below here.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 12:50:29 PM

The TRAN confirmed a H&S on its one-minute chart and has already just about hit its 3607.70-ish downside target, coming within about $0.60 of that target. It's at 3609.02 now. The TRAN sometimes overruns targets, but market bulls want it to stay above 3600. I'm watching the TRAN as a first indicator of how other markets might react. So far, even with this little pullback, it maintains breakout status on the five-minute Keltner chart, but I'm watching for a change in that.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 12:48:07 PM

QQQQ has broken below the wedge apex on a surge in volume but bounced the prior low at 37.46. Look for resistance at 37.55 to set up a more aggressive retest of that prior low.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 12:44:08 PM

QQQQ is testing lower wedge support here and rising 7200 tick SMA support at 37.55.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 12:39:35 PM

Yield curve now flattened. 5-year (unch) and 30-year (unch)

BIX.X 372.76 , SPX.X 1,187.94

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 12:36:24 PM

Jonathan mentioned the QQQ's gap test earlier today. The Nasdaq, of course, also tests its gap, with the top of that gap at 2073.59 (close on 1/19) or 2072.20 (intraday low), and the Nasdaq now at 2070.78.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 12:32:12 PM

By the way, that Keltner-style bearish divergence on intraday OEX charts has now been erased. Not price/MACD divergence, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 12:31:45 PM

Nymex crude is down .50 to 47.70 here. 2 day 100-tick chart at this Link shows a so-far corrective/sideways short cycle downphase within the rising 30 minute cycle channel.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 12:31:23 PM

Gannett Co Inc (GCI) continues to look like a bearish candidate given its five-month trend of lower highs and the lack of participation in the market bounce. A drop under $78.50 could be used as a trigger.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 12:25:15 PM

Current OPEN MM profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 12:27:18 PM

The more I look, the more I see reasons to return to/stick to my thinking that 566-568 (on closes, perhaps?) might be tough resistance for the OEX, perhaps with spikes up higher to 570-571. I keep looking for signs that the OEX will invalidate the H&S on its daily chart and instead find signs that it might at least pause at the right shoulder level, perhaps extending that level up to 570-571. One sign is to be found with an examination of the RLX: Link I'm trying to convince myself to believe otherwise, but just haven't convinced myself.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 12:23:11 PM

Royal Caribbean (RCL) is down 5.3% on massive volume after the company reported earnings and guided lower for Q1. The stock has broken its six-month rising channel and its 50-dma.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 12:22:55 PM

Note the very light volume overall for QQQQ, just 39.9M shares so far. Hopefully interest won't remain this light until the 2:15 Fed announcement tomorrow.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 12:19:44 PM

If the options weren't so expensive one could try a straddle on shares of Google (GOOG) before its earnings report today after the bell. Odds are good it will see a big move one way or the other.

Currently it would cost about $20.00 to buy a straddle at $195 and that seems too expensive.

You could cut that cost in half and buy a $210 call for close to $4.00 and a $180 put for about $4.50 but only if you think GOOG will move more than $15 by the February option expiration.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 12:19:35 PM

QQQQ dips back into the apex of the rising wedge despite the volume surge on the initial breakout. Current apex support is 37.52 QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 12:18:36 PM

Cendant (CD) $22.77 +0.32% ... accounting for spin off. The CD May $25 Calls (CD-EE) bid/offer $0.50 x $0.70. QCharts should have these corrected by tomorrow.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 12:15:46 PM

Masco (MAS) is breaking out over resistance at the $37.00 level. The stock is somewhat of a slow mover but it might make a decent covered call candidate.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 12:14:59 PM

Yesterday, I speculated that the BIX might be drawn up toward 373. It was: Link Like the OEX and some other indices, it's reaching an appropriate right-shoulder area, although in the BIX's case a rise up to 375 wouldn't undo that possible H&S, either.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 12:14:25 PM

Shares of EBAY continue to wither under the short-term trend of lower highs. The stock is not participating in the market's bounce and shares are on the verge of breaking round-number support at the $80.00 level. There are only 11 trading days left before its 2:1 split.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 12:12:34 PM

TXN pushed rather handily above the linked 50-sma and 200-ema. I was wrong about the difficulty. TXN bulls want to see that push higher maintained into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 12:11:33 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 373.11 +0.91% ... challenging its 50-day SMA here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 12:10:55 PM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ breaking above upper rising bear wedge resistance at 37.60, which should now act as support.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 12:10:34 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 409.70 +1.40% ... trades WEEKLY R1 for first time this week.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 12:10:09 PM

Don't forget that we want to close the OI call play in PHM either tonight or tomorrow afternoon before PHM's Wednesday evening earnings report.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 12:08:53 PM

The big inverse H&S depicted on the chart linked to my 10:38 post has an upside target of 570-570.70, depending on whether an aberrant spike lower as the head was formed is included or not in the calculations. I expected gains to slow as this 566-568 zone was hit, but the spike above the 50-sma seems to have re-energized bulls. Might see that upside target. Bulls, keep your profit-protecting plans in place as the OEX heads higher.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 12:08:21 PM

Technical traders may want to check out Ball Corp (BLL). The stock is bouncing from its rising 100-dma for the sixth time in the last seven months. News today of a $125 million (over 2% of the float) stock buy back program is helping lift the stock, which is currently breaking out over its 50-dma. The MACD is producing a new buy signal today. BLL hasn't been a big mover lately but it might make a decent covered call candidate.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 12:06:35 PM

3M (MMM) $84.55 +0.22% ... edges above yesterday's high.

Tab Gilles : 2/1/2005 12:06:32 PM

SMH Semi Holders testing retracement and 50 ema. Link

James Brown : 2/1/2005 12:04:14 PM

Last week shareholders for Canada's Molson beer approved the merger with Colorado's Coors. Today shareholders for Coors (RKY) have voted overwhelmingly in favor of the deal. The stock (RKY) is apparently unchanged at $74.60.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 12:14:38 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 12:01:53 PM

QQQQ bear wedge update at this Link . A break below 37.50 would imply a target as low as 37.25. However, rising 7200-tick SMA support is at 37.52 currently. The 30 min cycle bias remains to the upside until it breaks.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 12:00:26 PM

OI call play KBH is outpacing the rally in the DJUSHB home construction index. Shares of KBH are up 2.4% and hitting new highs near $112.00. Remember that our target was the $115-120 range.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 11:58:50 AM

OI call play AET is up 2.2% and challenging resistance at the $130.00 level. Short-term technical oscillators are bullish and its MACD is nearing a new buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 11:56:58 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 372.67 +0.80% ... nice move from the banks. They like a steepening yield curve.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 11:56:53 AM

Tab has certainly chosen the right sector on which to focus lately, hasn't he? See his 11:36 post.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 11:56:48 AM

Oil stock Apache Corp (APA) is also breaking out with a 2% gain pushing through the $55.00 level. The stock is hitting new all-time highs following four months of consolidation between $47.50 and $55.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 11:56:35 AM

Ten year treasury yields are up .8 bps to 4.14% here, still unable to crack former support at 4.14%-4.16%.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 11:55:25 AM

Homebuilder Beazer Homes USA (BZH) is also breaking out with a 3% rally through the $150-151 resistance region to hit new all-time highs. This is a new double-top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart that currently points to a $180 target.

James Brown : 2/1/2005 11:54:00 AM

Jeff mentioned Dow-component Exxon Mobile (XOM) and its upgrade this morning. I see that shares are breaking out over resistance at $50.00 to hit new all-time highs. Today's rally also breaks a three-month trading range. The median analyst price target on XOM is $60.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 11:53:30 AM

March Crude (cl05h) 47.60 -1.24% (30-min delayed) ... session low and has been finding sellers at WEEKLY Pivot ($47.88). U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 83.74 +0.16% (30-minute delayed)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 11:51:15 AM

Corrected updated QQQQ chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 11:50:20 AM

The OEX is now past the 50-dma and challenging the 30-dma, still within the 566-568 potential resistance zone. Bulls want to see the OEX hold this level, but I counsel bulls to keep their profit-protecting plans in place. As I mentioned this morning, we could see some wild spikes higher now (because of what happened in this same region in November and early December), but with those possibly soon reversed (because of what happened then), so keep those plans in place.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 11:49:20 AM

Whoops- my apologies for the overscaling on the QQQQ. Will reset and correct.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 11:48:16 AM

OEX breakout on the three-minute Keltner chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 11:47:06 AM

New highs for QQQQ. Here's a potentially bearish 2-day setup getting challenged now: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 11:43:40 AM

QQQQ is ping-ponging between 37.47 and 37.57 within a nested 30 and 60 min channel upphase. The bias will remain to the upside sol long as QQQQ holds above 37.47, with the 7200 tick SMA rising to 37.48 here. Current 30 and 60 min channel tops line up at 37.64 currently, but are still rising.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 11:36:54 AM

So far, the OEX has not been able to close a 30-minute period above the rising red trendline on the chart linked to my 11:26 post. It also hasn't been able to close above the rising regression channel depicted on the chart linked to my 9:58 post. It has pierced both and it's now trying to break above the top of the rising regression channel again. Here's what the three-minute Keltner chart shows: The top resistance is at 566.66 (three-minute closing basis), but still rising so that the OEX could rise, too, along the underside. However, if the OEX falters, resistance lines look ready to snake above it again and firm. There's still Keltner-style bearish divergence on that chart. So far, the OEX still climbs.

Tab Gilles : 2/1/2005 11:36:44 AM

XLE XOI Making new highs. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 11:26:59 AM

Here's where the OEX is with regard to that 30-minute chart I posted earlier, with the annotations those that were included earlier: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 11:19:09 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 11:15:46 AM

We're still seeing Keltner-style bearish divergences on the OEX's three-minute chart. As I mentioned earlier, that doesn't mean that prices can't go higher--they've certainly been doing so--but it offers a warning to those in bullish positions to protect their profits. The OEX is now at three-minute Keltner resistance, which coincides fairly well with the 50-sma on the daily chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 11:04:43 AM

On the 30 min chart, QQQQ has next strong resistance above the session high at 37.75-80, which represents gap resistance from a week ago Thursday. A successful break into that gap will target 38.00 resistance next. With this morning's bullish action and the preliminary buy signals in the daily cycle oscillators, the cycles have an upside bias. A return to the 38 level would result in all sellers of the past week and a half being trapped in an island bottom, completed by this AM's gap up open.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 11:05:00 AM

The OEX approaches the 50-sma at 566.52. I would expect gains to slow as the 566-568 zone is entered.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 11:13:39 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 2/1/2005 10:53:47 AM

$NASI/$COMPQ Finally after 4 weeks of decline a reversal? Could be a buy signal, however my take is that one should lighten up on any short positions on the COMPQ. Link

$SPX/$VIX 60 minute VIX is indicating a reversal with bullish divergence. Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Raising stop on remaining 1/2 position on MUR to $87 from $85. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 10:47:42 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Intel (INTC) $22.47 here, stop $22.35, target $22.81.

Jane Fox : 2/1/2005 10:44:39 AM

AD line is talking now with new daily highs and just like yesterday and Friday is been confirmed by a falling VIX. The odd man out again is the TRIN which is climbing albeit still within its neutral band.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 11:32:30 AM

The OEX is at the top of the rising regression channel (60-minute chart) depicted on the chart linked to my 9:58 post. Time for a downturn, a stall at the top line, or else a breakout above it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 10:42:58 AM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,518 +0.26% ... gets trade at WEEKLY R1 for first time this week. Looking 10,600 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 10:39:48 AM

QQQQ is testing 60 min channel resistance nowat 37.55. The short cycle upphase is back in effect, with the 30 min channel back to the upside as well. 7200-tick SMA support is up to 37.45, and the outlook is bullish above 37.50. This early abort to yesterday's 30 min downphase and this morning's strength has all the hallmarks of a new daily cycle upphase- bullish above 37.50.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 10:38:06 AM

The OEX's daily chart may support a potentially bearish outcome. This particular 30-minute chart suggests a more bullish one. Link Which are you going to believe? I don't know, and many others might not, either, as it requires just deciding which interpretation you're going to give more weight. (There's even a smaller inverse H&S I didn't note at the very top of the climb.) With this mixture, there may be choppiness, and you'd better have something other than your bias on your side such as internals.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 10:36:26 AM

Yield curve steepening here ... 5-year unchanged, 30-year up 1.4 bp. SPX 1,183.39 +0.17% ... bears should be pressed.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 10:27:38 AM

QQQQ's back to 37.50, the cash session high. A break above this level targets 37.55, current 60 min channel resistance, with the 30 min channel top 2 cents above it.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 10:24:38 AM

TXN is up slightly after an open right on its 200-sma, perhaps benefiting from CSFB's preference for it and Taiwan Semiconductor over European semi-related companies. However, it soon faces the linked 50-sma and 200-ema just above $23.50. I sometimes find that stocks or indices get trapped between their 200-sma's and 200-ema's for a while before they decide which way they're going to go. For example, through early November, TXN settled into a triangle shape between the converging averages. If I were an investor, it would be difficult to figure out whether the 50-sma/200-ema resistance was going to be more important than the 30-sma/200-sma support. Perfect conditions for some choppy behavior.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 10:22:49 AM

QQQQ's just failed at 37.50, which is a lower high. That should be the confirmation of the 30 min and 60 min rollovers after this morning's pop, but only if the decline takes out the previous low at 37.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 10:15:46 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced a 4.75B overnight repo to replace the 8.25B expiring, for a net drain of 3.5B today.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 10:06:50 AM

The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart shows nearest resistance being challenged now, with other nearby resistance at about 565.42 and then 566.06, with nearest support at 564.55 and then ranging down to 563.71. Nearest resistance and support look about equally weighted right now, so it's difficult to tell which will prevail.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 10:03:47 AM

Advdec line continuing lower. My bias for a choppy trading day may get in my way today, keeping me from believing too strongly in follow-through on downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 10:02:57 AM

QQQQ's breaking below 7200 tick SMA support now, current low 37.37.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 10:09:45 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 10:02:28 AM

Construction spending 1.1% vs. .5% expected.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 10:01:22 AM




Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 10:00:24 AM

VIX.X 12.95 +1.01% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.36, 12.58, Piv= 13.01 13.23, 13.66

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 9:58:32 AM

Current session low 37.39, QQQQ back to 37.43 off the low. 2 minutes until the ISM and Construction Spending data.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 9:58:21 AM

Here's an OEX 60-minute chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 9:54:42 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 839.37 +2.56% ... sector winner early.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 9:59:30 AM

Jane wrote a great Traders' Corner article last night. I know: writing a trading plan is boring. It's also so important. I particularly liked Jane's suggestion that we all ought to have a disaster plan in place. What happens if your computer connection goes down? Or, as sometimes happens in my case due to a family illness, you're suddenly called away from your computer screen in the midst of a trade? Do you have a way to track your trade/close it out via telephone or some other device? I've been in a car, using my Palm to follow trades or calling my broker and getting quotes. Know how you'll do that, if necessary.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 9:51:20 AM

There's confluence support for QQQQ starting at 37.41, continuing to flattened 7200-tick SMA support at 37.38. This will be the Mason-Dixon line between bull/bear country. Below that level, the 30 min cycle downphase should resume.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 9:52:33 AM

Cendant (CD) $22.67 -3.73% ... late yesterday company said it expects to take a $500-$650 million noncash after-tax Q1 charge for the spinoff of its PHH Corp. mortgage and fleet businesses unit after Monday's spin off of PHH to shareholders. In addition, CD saying it plans to spin off its ownership stake in Wright Express through an IPO in February. The offering should generate approximately $1 billion in cash. The sale of Wright Express will provide a gain of $300 million, or $0.19-$0.28 cents a share in the first quarter.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 9:45:01 AM

Here's that old tried-but-true OEX daily chart, showing where the OEX trades with respect to a potential right shoulder and to the converging 30- and 50-sma's: Link A strong break above 570 and perhaps 571 would be needed to invalidate that H&S, a possibility that exists, of course. For now, the symmetry of the formation gives favor to the bearish interpretation.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 9:43:33 AM

Despite the weakness in gold this morning, the miners are fractionally higher, HUI +.65 at 202.22 and XAU +.17 at 91.56. Ten year treasuries have recovered back to unchanged at 4.132% currently.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 9:41:22 AM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $52.10 +0.96% ... Bear Stearns upgrading to "outperform" from "peer perform." Firm saying XOM's earnings from its chemicals and refining/marketing business have consistently outpaced their estimates due to company specific advantages and company's financial position is exraordinarily strong.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 9:39:54 AM

For reference, the OEX's 30- and 50-sma's are at 567.31 and 566.50 this morning.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 9:38:42 AM

The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart shows support trying to firm near 564 and then again at 564.67. It's not clear yet whether the OEX might first push up toward next resistance at 565.89 or fall down toward support, but it looks as if that 564-ish support is firm enough to at least pause any decline if not provide a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 9:37:28 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN)

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 9:36:01 AM

So far at least, we're continuing to see some Keltner-style bearish divergence on the OEX's three-minute chart, with that bearish divergence showing up all day yesterday. Obviously, such divergence does not mean an immediate downturn, but it suggests caution for any in bullish positions.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 9:32:27 AM

ADVDEC is way down below yesterday's. I'm always concerned when the advdec line reaches such extremes (+3000) as it did yesterday because that says to me that most everybody that wanted to buy, did. While that doesn't necessarily mean that we will see declines today, it might well mean that indices just sit where they were. Be careful. Like all indicators, this isn't necessarily a good market-timing sign but it is a warning perhaps.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 9:31:20 AM

The persistence of QQQQ above the gap has the 30 min channel turning up, with resistance now lined up with the 60 min channel top at 37.55. A move below 37.38 is necessary to stall this upphase- bulls need to hold above the gap for the next 10-15 minutes to successfully hold this early abort to yesterday's closing downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 9:29:01 AM

American Express (AXP) $53.35 ... higher at $55.24 after Dow component said it would spin off its Financial Advisors unit in a tax-free distribution to shareholders as the company focuses on it credit-card and travel businesses.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2005 9:26:30 AM

Ariba (ARBA) $13.88 ... lower at $10.30 after the e-commerce software company reported quarterly EPS and revenue below analysts' expectations.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 9:12:14 AM

According to one report, Germany's EU-harmonized CPI figures showed a decline this morning, easing worries about inflation. There's been much disharmony in the eurozone over the last year about countries such as Germany with inflation rates higher than the cap the eurozone ministers wanted.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 9:06:58 AM

Slight weakness in ten year treasuries, with TNX up .6 bps at 4.136%. 4.14%-4.16% is now confluence resistance just overhead.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 9:02:46 AM

So what's up with the OEX? It certainly moved above the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that had served as resistance for a week. I had expected it to then pop rather quickly up to 566-568, but it couldn't quite make it up that high yesterday. It closed off its high of the day, below that resistance zone and below the converging 30- and 50-sma's, with those averages at 567.38 and 566.51, respectively. The formation could still be part of a right-shoulder-building exercise, one I've been noting as a possibility for quite a while. And now that the OEX has finally reached up toward the 566-568 right-shoulder level, it could sit there at least a day or two consolidating before it decides to either round down or head up. Noting the activity as the left shoulder was produced, it could send some wild spikes up higher only to see them reversed, too, so that it's going to be difficult to trust an upside breakthrough.

I note that futures are up now as I type, with the Dow futures above 10,500, but challenging an inverse H&S neckline, without proof that it can remain above that neckline. If the cash open is consistent with the futures action, the OEX may yet see 566-568. What then? I'm cautious ahead of the FOMC conclusion tomorrow and I bet others are, too, so a choppy consolidation at the top of a possible right-shoulder level fits perfectly with that scenario, including those soon-to-be-reversed-trial-spikes, too. I'd urge caution about entering new positions today. If you're already in a bullish position, I've already suggested that you have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 566-568, with possibilities including everything from liquidating positions and waiting out the test to taking partial profits to raising stops to creating some kind of spread to lock in partial profit. McMillan's Options as a Strategic Investment is a great resource for studying such tactics, if you don't yet know how to go about developing a profit-protecting plan that fits the particular trade as well as your trading style. If you're bearish and thinking the OEX approaches a level from which it should turn down, certainly a possibility but not a proven outlook yet, you'll be looking for signs that such a rollover might be beginning. Such signs proved to be false yesterday and could well remain so ahead of tomorrow's rate-hike decision. We'll watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 8:36:44 AM

A new 30 min cycle downphase had kicked off for QQQQ as of yesterday's close, with 30 min cycle channel resistance at 37.47. QQQQ is currently above that level but just beneath the descending 60 min channel top at 37.53. This is a good setup for a gap & crap open, but with the daily cycle oscillators flashing preliminary buy signals, this would be a likely place for a bullish trending move/breakaway gap. A break above 37.55 would suggest the latter, while a failure from here than breaks below 37.37 (current 7200 tick SMA) will suggest the former.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2005 7:46:05 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1181.75, NQ 1525, YM 10485 and QQQQ +.07 to 37.47. Gold is down 1 to 421, silver -.039 to 6.71, ten year notes flat at 112 17/64 and crude oil -.325 at 47.875.

We await the 10AM release of the ISM Index, est. 57, and Construction Spending, est. .5%.

Linda Piazza : 2/1/2005 7:09:40 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei closed near the flat-line level, climbing strongly off its low into the close. Many other Asian markets closed lower, but European markets turn higher this morning. Our futures dipped at the European open, but have recovered to flat-line levels as this report was prepared. As of 6:11 EST, gold was down $1.00, and crude, down $0.35 to $47.85. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei dipped in early trading. Early weakness was influenced at least in part by a report of Mitsubishi Tokyo Finance Group's offering of 0.60 share for each share of UFJ Holdings in their merger. Pioneer also contributed, saying that the stronger yen and competition caused a loss for the full year rather than the predicted profit. In the afternoon session, the Nikkei dipped to its low of the day, but then climbed into the close. It closed more than 50 points off its low of the day, down only 3.19 points or 0.03%, at 11,384.40. At the end of the day, techs were mixed as were the major banking stocks. Three of the major banks had been able to reduce bad-loan ratios, they reported. Mitsubishi Motors continued recent declines.

Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances, but the bourses commonly watched on these pages all turned lower. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.21%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.97%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.08%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.05%. China's Shanghai Composite added to recent losses, declining 0.24%.

Most European markets turn higher this morning after a brief dip into negative territory near the open. However, airline companies weren't sharing in early gains.

The eurozone's January manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9, a higher rise than expected. Employment fell, but new orders and output components rose. Some interpreted the spectrum of numbers to mean that although there are yet few signs of recovery, the slowing has likely ended. CSFB upgraded the European chip sector to a market-weight rating although it still likes Texas Instruments and Taiwan Semiconductor better. European chip stocks showed mixed performances in early trading. DaimlerChrysler received an upgrade, too, from J.P. Morgan, and was rising in early trading. A more negative outlook arrived via Switzerland's Ciba Specialty Chemicals, noting rising materials costs, currency issues, and competition as being responsible for a loss that surprised. Vivendi Universal reportedly takes a stand, saying that its Universal Music Group will require licensing agreements with Internet sites or cable outlets rather than offering free or low-cost music videos and that it will no longer advertise with sites that don't sign such licensing agreements. In the continuing M&S saga related to the London Stock Exchange, new permutations are introduced almost daily, with today's sending hopeful acquirer Euronext lower.

In the U.K., January manufacturing PMI showed weakening in all components except output prices. FTSE 100 component BOC Group, a chemicals and gases company, helped promote gains in that bourse as it rose after its earnings report. That report did mention the impact of the weak dollar, however.

As of 6:54 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 20.90 points or 0.43%, to 4,873.20. The CAC 40 had climbed 10.34 points or 0.26%, to 3,924.03. The DAX had risen 13.80 points or 0.32%, to 4,268.65.

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