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OI Technical Staff : 2/4/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 8:49:07 PM

Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link Dow Diamonds (DIA) with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link I need to think about the lack of overhead supply this weekend. Remember all those warnings in December about the rally on light volume? 28 of the 30 INDU/DIA components are NYSE listed.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 6:13:28 PM

What a week! Iraq elections, economy generated 146,000 new jobs in January and the Fed raised rates 25 bp to 2.5%! Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link Closing Internals at this Link has the NYSE reporting the largest number of new highs since 12/03/04 (495). NASDAQ's NH/NL reading has NH matching that of 01/03/05 (158), but NLs of 35 larger than 01/03/05 (9).

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 5:26:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's activity .... Closed out the five (5) long DIA Feb. $105 puts (DIA-NA) at the bid of $0.45. ($-0.25, or -35.71) Swing trade bullish call and one (1) of the EBAY Apr $80 Calls (XBA-DP) at the offer of $3.80. Swing trade sold NAKED five (5) of the DIA Feb $108 calls (DIA-BD) at the bid of $0.30. I would strongly urge any trader doing so to either have bullish gains built in the DIA, or have a bullish position in a larger-weighted component (similar perhaps to MMM) Weekly trade blotter of closed trades that I've profiled (opened then closed) at this Link

Tab Gilles : 2/4/2005 4:42:23 PM

Greenspan helps dollar today. Links... Link Link

chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 5:28:14 PM

Mark : DIA at $109 on February expiration. With 3M (MMM) $84.08 +0.88% stuck here. But a bear's "Dear John" letter may have been delivered today by a rather hunchbacked postal worker. Link Only a clever girl named "Jane" could have written a "Dear John" letter like this Link

Mark Davis : 2/4/2005 4:09:40 PM

Jeff, if you were a bear, what would be the Valentine's Day equivalent of a lump of coal in your Christmas stocking? A "Dear John" letter? A maintenance call?

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 4:07:22 PM

QQQQ will have correlative pivot matrix resistance at $38.00 (DAILY R1) and $38.05 (WEEKLY R1) on Monday. Also note MONTHLY Pivot $38.05. A gap above, could have bull's in love. Monday, 02/14/05 is Valentine's Day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 4:01:53 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $120.23 , DIA $106.99

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:59:41 PM

I noted yesterday that after the VIX hit its low in December, markets actually moved up to a new price high before turning down again. Could happen again and we don't even know if this is the VIX low yet.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:58:05 PM

OEX upside target now 577.56. Think it can make it in two minutes? Probably not.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:57:20 PM

They've got their hands pushed up almost over their heads right now, Jeff, but maybe still rubbing them in glee. (See Jeff's 3:51 post.)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 3:55:48 PM

QQQQ 100-tick 2-day chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:53:38 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the 1/2 bullish QQQQ $37.81 +1.76% to $37.70

Jane Fox : 2/4/2005 3:51:26 PM

Linda the VIX's previous 9 year low was 11.14 made in December. Today's low is 10.90. You have to go back to December 1995 to find a low lower.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:51:31 PM

Contrarians might be a little busy at those right shoulders/ears Linda.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:49:22 PM

VIX below 11, advdec above 3100. A contrarian would be rubbing his/her hands in glee right now.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 3:48:52 PM

10.87 for the VXO here Linda. These are 9 or 10 year lows, but my charts don't go back that far.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:48:45 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 375 +0.89% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:48:04 PM

VIX below 11!

If the OEX makes it up to that 577-578 level by the close or does on follow-through Monday morning, the OEX will be in double-top territory on the daily chart and it will be getting there with the VIX dangerously low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:47:30 PM

Indices erupting now

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:45:21 PM

Here come those Internets (INX.X) 190.73 -0.67% ... can bulls get'm even by the close?

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:44:14 PM

TRIN plunging 0.95

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:43:54 PM

The OEX charges up toward that now 577.43 upside target. Took long enough, didn't it? Hope those of you who might have tried hitting the 571 zone with a bearish play adhered to the advice to set tight stops and be willing to jump back out.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:40:29 PM

March Crude (cl05h) settled up $0.03, or 0.06% at $46.48. March Unleaded (hu05h) settled down $0.008, or -0.62% at $1.2605.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 3:40:13 PM

QQQQ has just broken above the upper rising wedge resistance line, with 30 min channel resistance now up to 37.80 and still rising. QQQQQ is bullish above 37.60, the current level of the 7200 tick SMA.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 3:37:03 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:34:01 PM

The TRAN is a laggard. It hasn't made it up to 3600.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:33:29 PM

SPX 1200.49. Better hold.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:32:48 PM

Finally a breakout on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, too. The 577.35 upside target looks possible, but certainly not guaranteed. We should get MOC orders in a few minutes and if big funds are in a profit-taking mood after the week's gains, that target might be gone so quickly, it's not funny.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:31:38 PM

QQQQ gets $37.72 +1.52% and the DIA $106.88 +0.92% is look'n great.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 3:30:32 PM

Upper wedge resistance lines up with both 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 37.74 QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:29:39 PM

I'm reading that the IMF's Managing Director pegs the fund's prediction for world growth at near 4% this year. He reportedly sees some risks, mentioning actions needed to correct current account imbalances as one risk.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 3:28:34 PM

New session high for QQQQ at 37.69.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:27:52 PM

Decide ahead of time if you're going to be holding over the weekend. Risks include the G7 meeting this weekend and gyrations that might cause in the currency markets, with the effect perhaps filtering down into equity markets. All kinds of positioning is going on in concurrence with that meeting, with most feeling that statement will read much as it did at the last meeting, but it's difficult to know how the dollar will be impacted.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 3:25:18 PM

100-tick QQQQ chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:24:16 PM

The OEX still butts up underneath the 15-minute Keltner resistance while climbing strongly on the 60-minute. (See charts linked to my 2:02 and 2:07 posts, although Keltner lines have changed values a little since.) That lack of a real breakout on the 15-minute one makes me wonder still about the viability of the now-577.34 upside target predicted by the 60-minute channel, so just don't count too strongly on it being reached. So far, it's still climbing, though.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:24:04 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA $106.81 +0.84% ... early look at next week's WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $103.68, $105.24, Piv= $106.03, $107.59, $108.38 While February expiration is not until 02/18/05, if selling $108 calls naked for $0.30, then $108 + $0.30 = $108.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 3:16:49 PM

Ten year treasury yields finished the session down 2.16% or 9 bps at 4.073%.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:09:14 PM

The TRAN has been trudging up toward 3600. I would guess that markets need a TRAN breakout, too, to sustain gains. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance is now at 3598.28, so the TRAN would need a 15-minute close above that level to set up a breakout situation there, setting a potential 3618.47 upside target.

By the way, TRIN is testing the ascending trendline that had sustained it all day.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 3:06:34 PM

The 300 min stochastic on the 30 minute chart is showing its first downtick from overbought territory. The Macd has not yet rolled over, but that stochastic setup matches the slow roll that the 30 min channel is showing over the past hour. Once again, a move below 37.37-.40 is needed to start the next downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:03:25 PM

Intel (INTC) 50-day SMA alert $22.88 +2.23%

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 3:14:03 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 3:00:04 PM

TRIN still trending up. Will it matter? It hasn't yet, but be warned to watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 2:57:14 PM

QQQQ continues to chop sideways, net unchanged for the past 4+ hours Link But the 60 min cycle channel (Keltner90 in light grey) has been flattening from its former upphase, and it will take a strong move above the session high to resume its morning climb. Below 37.37, that and the 30 min cycles will assume a bearish bias.

James Brown : 2/4/2005 2:49:01 PM

I had American Power Conversion (APCC) on my personal watch list for a breakout from its trading range over the $22.00 level. Shares are doing just that right now but I wouldn't chase it. The stock is up over 18.5% and still soaring after reporting positive upside earnings results this morning.

James Brown : 2/4/2005 2:45:07 PM

Insurance stock Hartford Financial Services (HIG) is up 2.3% and breaking out over major resistance at the $70 level to hit new three-year highs.

The move produces a new triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart with a $102 target.

James Brown : 2/4/2005 2:39:38 PM

The DDX disk drive index is breaking out over resistance near 122.00 to hit new one-year highs todya.

James Brown : 2/4/2005 2:38:49 PM

Target achieved! OI call play Goldman Sachs (GS) is up 1.37% and breaking out over the $110 level. Our short-term target was a move into the $110-115 range.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 2:37:21 PM

QQQQ breaks below the 7200 tick SMA, stalling the 30 min channel upphase. A break below 37.50 for 5-10 minutes should be enough to turn it down, but the key will be a test of 37.37, if the bears get there.

James Brown : 2/4/2005 2:36:31 PM

Target achieved! OI call play KB Home (KBH) is up 4% to $116.59, which is within our $115-120 target range.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 2:36:31 PM

I'm seeing some hunchbacks

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 2:31:08 PM

QQQQ has just bounced off rising 7200 tick SMA support at 37.56.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 2:23:31 PM

2 day 50-tick chart of ZN ten year treasury futures at this Link . Unfortunately, my fibonacci grid maxxes out at 200%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 2:24:24 PM

Altria (MO) $66.36 +4.09% ... jumped from $64.50 in last 30-minutes. Bulk of reason for DIA's jump. Reuters... A U.S. appeals court on Friday rejected the government's bid to force cigarette makers to pay billions of dollars in past profits as part of its racketeering case against the industry. The Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled that federal law does not provide for the $280 billion penalty the government is seeking as part of the racketeering case that went to trial in September.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 2:22:14 PM

Jane may have commented already that the TRIN has been treding up since 10:30.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 2:19:11 PM

Swing trade sell naked calls alert ... with the DIA $106.71 +0.74% here, let's sell five (5) of the DIA Feb. $108 calls (DIA-BD) at the bid of $0.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 2:13:38 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 2:07:23 PM

30 min channel resistance rises to 37.70 QQQQ here, and should continue to rise so long as QQQQ holds above 7200 tick SMA support, currently at 37.55.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 2:07:15 PM

A look at the view from an OEX 60-minute chart, with the 577.27 potential upside: Link More than ever, bulls need to keep those profit-protecting plans in place, however.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 2:02:29 PM

A look at the 15-minute Keltner resistance the OEX faces: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 2:14:36 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 2/4/2005 1:57:55 PM

WATCH 414/415 $SOX level. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 1:55:18 PM

QQQQ dips back below 37.60 here after banging its head on the now-rising 30 min channel resistance line. QQQQ is now testing 7200-tick SMA support at 37.57, below which the 30 min channel upphase should stall. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 1:49:30 PM

Sorry, Tab. I missed your 1:23 post. My MM wasn't updated and I didn't realize it. By the time I backtracked and read the prior posts, some time had elapsed.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 1:47:06 PM

The SOX is leading and the OEX is following. Needs to hold this 60-minute breakout. Dialing down to the 15-minute chart, I see some doubt about that, as it's dealing with the same Keltner resistance that's been turning it back the last couple of days.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 1:43:51 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,198.02, QQQQ $37.66, DIA $106.58

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 1:43:12 PM

QQQQ go'n $37.72

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 1:41:49 PM

SOX.X 412.45 +2.93% ... session highs

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 1:42:47 PM

Session highs across the board. 37.60 is new support. Above 37.65, next strong resistance is in the 38.00 area for QQQQ, but note that the previous intraday low never got below yesterday's high.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 1:38:42 PM

The OEX, however, still hasn't convincingly broken out. With the SOX now attempting to lead the way, it may try, but it's sat still so long that Keltner 60-minute resistance has snaked above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 1:37:52 PM

QQQQ update at this Link . QQQQ is 3 cents away from another retest of the session high, bouncing from a higher low above the previous 37.45 low. The 30 min cycle has whipsawed back to flat.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 1:37:33 PM

New high on the SOX.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 1:36:41 PM

Is that $37.72 calling?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 1:25:49 PM

Session low for Nymex crude here at 46.225, with euro futures also at session's low, 1.2874.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 1:23:59 PM

The USD Index has made a decisive move above 84.0 resistance today: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 1:23:58 PM

The SOX's breakout above the neckline still isn't convincing.

Tab Gilles : 2/4/2005 1:23:11 PM

Linda, I would say that with the $NASI reading having signals, a more cautious position on shorting the Nasdaq. I'd have to reamin short-term bullish on the over sold semi sector. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 1:13:49 PM

Another indicator index I watch, the TRAN, isn't showing any strength.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 1:13:10 PM

Despite a buy program for QQQQ just off the 37.60 high, QQQQ is rolling lower after putting in a nominally lower high. A break below 37.46 targets the 37.40 support level. Below 37.37, the bears should be in business for the remainder of the day as the 60 min cycle will have turned down as well.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 1:11:56 PM

The SOX attempts another upside push. Needs to break above the day's high and stay there before it's a convincing break: Link

Tab Gilles : 2/4/2005 1:08:55 PM

$NASI/$COMPQ Nasdaq still rallying after reversal signal on $NASI.(see 2/1/05 10:53AM post) Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 1:12:19 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 12:55:15 PM

QQQQ is breaking above the upper flag resistance line and has just come within 3 cents of the 37.60 intraday high. That was a very weak corrective pullback for QQQQ, but until the daily high fails, we won't know if it's merely a bearish retest of the 30 min cycle high.

Tab Gilles : 2/4/2005 12:54:08 PM

$TRAN A look at the Transport chart. Can the $TRAN continue to rally from 19.1% bounce or is the more downside? Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 12:53:15 PM

A quiet day for crude oil, continuing to edge lower from its morning pop, currently up .225 at 46.675. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 12:51:42 PM

Ten year treasuries continue to hold their impressive gains, ten year yields (TNX) -10.4 bps at 4.059%, a 2.52% drop for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 12:50:41 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 2:42:43 PM

Bullish swing trade bullish call option alert for eBay (EBAY) $76.03 -1.54% and bying one (1) of the EBAY Apr. $80 calls (XBA-DP) at the offer of $3.80. Target a bounce back toward $94.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 12:49:16 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes. Maybe that will get the markets moving.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 12:46:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 12:42:36 PM

Still no clear breakout on either the OEX (above 60-minute resistance, to set up a 577 upside target) or the SOX (above the neckline of its inverse H&S and top trendline of its descending regression channel). The TRAN rises in a possible bear flag, but it's got a potential big inverse H&S on its 60-minute chart, too. Somebody just has to find the courage to take a stand to get these moving either direction, and that somebody has to be bigger than any of us. Waiting it out.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 12:38:20 PM

Temple Inland (TIN) $75.00 +15.24% Link ... huge move higher on reports that Carl Icahn requested antitrust clearance to acquire between $200 million and $1 billion in the packaging and building products company.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 12:37:25 PM

QQQQ now finds resistance at former intraday support of 37.50. Any higher and the head and shoulders pattern described earlier will be invalidated.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 12:33:15 PM

There goes the VIX again, dropping lower. Remember: not a market-timing tool.

Tab Gilles : 2/4/2005 12:31:00 PM

A look at the $USD and EUR/USD. It appears that the dollar is ready to rally here. The dollar is so important here because equities will get hurt on an upside dollar breakout. It's only fair to also point out that a decline for the dollar could spark that breakout over SPX 1200. The equity market needs that currency re-adjustment factor to get over these major upside levels, at least it's been so for the last couple of years. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 12:32:03 PM

QQQQ traders that are shorting Jonathan's notes, might want to look at the DIA and SPY intra-day chart too.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 12:24:24 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 12:19:39 PM

Barring a strong thrust downward the next 12 minutes or so, the OEX has avoided confirming an evening-star pattern on its 60-minute chart. It still hasn't convincingly broken out on the 60-minute Keltner chart. It needs to maintain 60-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 571.25 to keep the breakout possibility looking more possible.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 12:18:32 PM

There's a small head and shoulders emerging above a neckline at yesterday's high here- if so, then this bounce is printing a right shoulder, and a break below 37.40 will have an implied target of 37.20 QQQQ: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 12:17:14 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 2/4/2005 12:01:01 PM

Ain't it da truth, Jeff!

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 12:05:55 PM

Tab: It's always up to the U.S. isn't it? Should the U.S. Government privatize Exxon/Mobil? Similar to what Russia has done with Yukos? That would be an aggressive way to pursue and help secure our own energy needs.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 11:59:30 AM

Compared with the rise that preceded it, the current pullback is corrective and hesitant, despite its impact on the now-declining 30 min cycle channel. 37.37 QQQQ support has yet to be tested, and QQQQ is still above yesterday's high, and so the bias remains to the upside. Like yesterday's decline, the bears need more to overcome the overriding bullish bias from the daily cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 11:57:59 AM

The TRAN's 30-minute chart: Link

Tab Gilles : 2/4/2005 11:59:13 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) continues to rally. After it reports record earnings more than doubled.

2 year chart Link

This week I've brought up China's role in the oil market and wonder what impact China's oil deals are at keeping prices high? We know how strong their demand has been. China and other nations in international oil deals could keep prices high for the foreseeable future and require more involvement by the US to secure our own needs.The U.S. Senate Energy Committee has brought up this same topic. It's time for the U.S. to take note and aggressively pursue and secure our own energy needs for now and for the future. Oil demand grows and supplies are declining. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 11:57:16 AM

I couldn't agree more Linda (11:51:37) ... especially after looking at the DIA (11:53:07) and all those head/shoulder tops traders have been alerted to! New bear entries have tight stop, lower risk. It's those that shorted at the necklines, combined with current shorts that build the squeeze higher if right shoulders are taken out.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 11:53:07 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.29 +0.34% ... big decision point for bears is now at hand. DIA with conventional (BLUE) and bearish fitted 38.2% (PINK) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 11:51:37 AM

All who care about the markets are watching the same levels we're watching. Those who think this is worth a try at a short position are trying them: hence, the small pullback. Those who think this is a good position to signal a breakout are probably feeling hesitant and waiting for someone else to take the first step. This didn't feel like a stop-running push soon slapped back to me. It just felt like some tentativeness. I don't see anything that's compelling either direction. It's still a level that might be worth a nibble on a bearish position for those who like to try out positions in that manner and who really can adhere to close stops. It also is still a level that might lead to another breakout. You really do not want to ride the OEX up to 577 if it's going to break out on the 60-minute chart and set up that upside target. Right now, it looks more in danger of completing an evening-star pattern this 60-minute period than it does of breaking out, but that remains to be seen.

I've been warning this so long that the warning sounds tired, but those low VIX levels really are warning bulls to enjoy the party but be ready to exit quickly if someone yells "Fire!"

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 11:42:13 AM

March Crude (cl05h) $47.00 +1.18% ... updated 30-minute interval chart with conventional (BLUE) and bearish fitted 38.2% (PINK) at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 11:40:47 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link. If a full-fledged 30 min cycle downphase launches here on a break below 37.37, then bulls will want to see a higher low above yesterday's 37.00 print to confirm the daily cycle upphase within which all this is occurring.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 11:34:55 AM

Here's a SOX chart I showed earlier and the reason why I don't believe this breakout has proven itself just yet: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 11:32:40 AM

Nymex crude is currently +.65% at 46.75, off a low of 46.425.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 11:29:50 AM

TRIN 1.00 .... QQQQ $37.48 , DIA $106.30

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 11:28:45 AM

The current drop has just broken rising 7200 tick SMA support at 37.50 QQQQ, and the 30 min cycle upphase has just stalled. Channel support is currently 37.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 11:24:11 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link I had some computer memory problems which locked up my QCharts for an 11:00 AM Market Watch.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 11:21:52 AM

The OEX just isn't doing a good job of convincing me that it's broken out on the 60-minute channel, setting up the next upside target, at 577.16 in this case. It may happen, but it just hasn't convincingly set up that breakout.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 11:19:39 AM

Session high for ten year notes here at 112 45/64, with TNX down 9.1 bps at 4.072%.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 11:23:06 AM

It looks to me as if the SOX tests of the neckline of its inverse H&S and the top of the descending regression channel are not yet concluded.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 11:12:52 AM

QQQQ has backed away from the upside break and has returned to the flag channel. Trendline support is down to confluence support at 37.50.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 11:09:25 AM

The OEX faces Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. Want to see this breakout hold on the 60-minute one to preserve the possible upside target of 577.17. There was a 60-minute close above the needed Keltner line, but only barely. The breakout remains iffy on that chart, so bulls don't want to see a quick pullback just now.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 11:07:19 AM

The SOX is pushing above/testing the neckline of that inverse H&S on its daily chart, depending on where you draw the neckline and how many shadows you include or don't include.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 11:05:58 AM

Bull flag resistance for QQQQ cracking now: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 11:01:28 AM

The TRAN dropped back to its open. It's trying to bounce again.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 11:00:13 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 11:00:40 AM

March Crude (cl05h) $47.11 +1.40% (30-min. delayed) ... sticks its head above the $47.10 level.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 11:01:55 AM

QQQQ $37.53 +1.01% ... session high as described by the pivot matrix has been $37.60. QQQQ most active options with the VXN.X 16.79 -3.28% are the Mar. $38 puts $1.05 (34,650:57,934), Feb $38 puts $0.70 (13,025:153,941), Feb $37 puts $0.25 (15.525:184:252). Just a little put selling don't you think? I bold the Feb puts and begin to think an important level of near-term support at $37.25-$37.30.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 10:50:07 AM

It's difficult to characterize the OEX's pullback just yet, as seen on a five-minute chart. It looks a little bull flag-ish, but there's potential for a drop to 570 and then a rise toward 570.70 and a deeper pullback. Bulls would rather the nearest five-minute Keltner support at 570.61 held on a five-minute closing basis and the OEX bounced from there.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 10:49:18 AM

QQQQ is printing a flag atop the sharp flagpole this morning, holding steadily at the 127.2% retracement above yesterday's range. A continuation pattern in the form of a pennant, flag or rectangle from here should resolve to the upside, which would be commensurate with the currently synchronized 30 min, 60 min and daily cycles. This is prime time for the bulls, and the bias remains bullish above 37.40. First sign of trouble will be a break below 37.50, which is first confluence support.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 10:40:43 AM

QQQQ has strong resistance on the 30 min chart at 37.60-.65, above which 38.0 resistance comes into view. The 30 min cycle is pointed straight up, and will remain bullish above 37.37-.40.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 10:35:38 AM

The TRAN did finally join the party today. It has currently pulled back after testing 3590 and is trapped between 3584-ish Keltner support and 3590.40-ish resistance on the five-minute chart. It's pullback currently looks more bearish right triangle shaped than anything else, but those can broaden into bull flags or pinch into bullish falling wedges.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 10:33:18 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 10:30:56 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 10:25:09 AM

The SOX tests the top of that descending regression channel and approaches the inverse H&S neckline, between 511-512, depending on how it's drawn.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 10:20:41 AM

The OEX tests the double-top level. There's no sign yet of a pullback in progress, but if you're the kind of trader who likes to hit a certain pre-ordained area with a trial play, this would be the correct place to put a bet on the bearish side. The danger is that the 60-minute chart shows that a breakout above the current Keltner resistance (570.67) on a 60-minute close sets up a potential 577.08 upside target. The VIX is beginning to do more than whisper a warning, perhaps moan one, although it tends to start its moaning and whining ahead of time while all goes on as before for a while. You're risking another upside breakout just after your entry. Not entering risks not catching the top. Depends on your trading style and account size, but you would certainly need a close stop in case there's that breakout, and an account that's big enough to allow you to daytrade in and out. I tend to want a little more confirmation than we're getting just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 10:20:39 AM

QQQQ $37.57 ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 10:20:15 AM

QQQQ $37.44 +0.78% ... intra-day traders may want to be alert should QQQQ trade $37.57. Noted a large block trade of 1.2 million shares crossed in Wednesday's extended session (following day was down in QQQQ). Correlative today at DAILY R2.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 10:14:44 AM

Here's where the SOX is with respect to the descending regression channel on its daily chart: Link If you look closely, you can see the inverse H&S at the bottom of that, so that a move through the neckline would also break the SOX out of the descending regression channel. Note that the SOX has a tendency to spike out of that channel and then pull back by the day's end, though. It's done it each time it hit the top of the channel. The regular H&S is there, too, although harder to see.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 10:09:47 AM

The OEX is nearing potential double-top territory. Bulls want to see something clearly bullish happen here--perhaps a halt just below or just above and a nicely formed bull flag pullback and then a volume-backed push higher or something like that. They don't want to see a spike higher that's slammed back, leaving a long tail behind, and then more follow-through to the downside.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 10:06:49 AM

The VIX 12/23 low was 11.14 (at the close). The VIX is getting into dangerous territory here. As was proven in late December, though, this is not a good market-timing tool. The OEX, in particular, went on to consolidate for five more days before spiking to a new high on the sixth and then beginning a precipitous fall. Bulls, enjoy the fun while it's going on, but be chary of new entries except for scalping-type ones and be quick to protect profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 10:06:26 AM

QQQQ bounced from 37.37 and has rocketed higher. This is the action that bears needed to see yesterday and on Wednesday. The impulsive upside following the corrective 30 min downphase yesterday confirms the daily cycle upphase. QQQQ is bullish above 37.37.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 10:17:16 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link Recent trade and current action would have the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio reversing up 3 boxes to 64.0%. Will not chart until the close, but shorter-term (5-day) and intermediate-term (10-day) bullish leadership looks to be resuming.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 10:02:56 AM

Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $65.50 +0.92% ... ramping

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 10:01:34 AM

The Fed announces a small 3.5B 6-day repo to replace the 7.75B expiring for a net drain of 4.25B. There's still time left for an overnight repo to supplement it, but for the time being it looks like the Fed, in addition to its 25 bp hike, intends to place its 22 primary dealers on a more austere diet.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 10:01:23 AM

The SOX has not yet invalidated that potential regular H&S on its 60-minute chart, but it's come close. Should flatten now or even begin rolling down if it's going to have a chance at confirming the regular H&S. Should move up or perhaps consolidate and then move up if it's going to confirm the bigger inverse H&S.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 9:59:48 AM

QQQQ has just cranked vertically to a spike high of 37.44, settling back to 37.42, right on the steeply rising 30 min cycle channel top. That was a band violation that should see a corrective reversal from here- if not, it's signalling the start of a strong upside trending move that bears won't want to argue with, especially given the wimpiness of the 30 min cycle downphase that preceded it. If QQQQ holds above 37.37 for another 5 minutes, that bullish scenario will start to look like the more likely of the two. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 10:27:11 AM

Bearish day trade put close out alert ... let's close out the five (5) DIA $105 puts (DIA-NA) at the bid of $0.45. DIA $106.10

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 9:57:10 AM

Dec. 31 alert ... Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 121.60 +1.8% ... reclaims its Dec. 31 close.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:56:54 AM

VIX absolutely diving.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 9:56:26 AM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,193.53, QQQQ $37.38, DIA $106.18

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:56:01 AM

Breakout mode on the OEX's three-minute Keltner chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 9:55:22 AM

QQQQ breaks above the top of the intraday bear wedge here, with 30 min channel resistance rising to 37.40. QQQQ needs to hold north of 37.25 to avoid a possible whipsaw back through the rising wedge apex.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 9:52:51 AM

Headline:

9:48am UMICH JAN. SENTIMENT BELOW 97.1 IN DEC.

9:48am UMICH JAN. CONSUMER SENTIMENT REVISED TO 95.5 VS 95.8

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 9:52:35 AM

Could be a small intraday bear wedge shaping up here for QQQQ. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:50:28 AM

This morning I mentioned that if the OEX could break above the resistance near yesterday's close, that Keltner lines thinned above and the OEX would be able to climb. The OEX has now climbed into that zone where resistance thins. Next 15-minute Keltner resistance is just above, however, at 569.82 with further resistance above that, at 571.47. It may be time for a small pullback. As long as the OEX maintains 15-minute closes above the Keltner line at 568.13, it preserves the possibility of keeping its smaller Keltner channel pointed higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 9:47:57 AM

VIX.X 11.64 -1.27% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 11.56, 11.66, Piv= 11.83, 11.93, 12.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 9:47:21 AM

Bonds continue to hold their gains, with the ten year note yield (TNX) down 7.8 bps at 4.085% here. 4.1% should now act as resistance.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:47:18 AM

See this potential H&S, with that being the right shoulder of a potential inverse H&S? Link One is going to win out, invalidating the other . . . unless we get sideways trade.

Jane Fox : 2/4/2005 9:46:01 AM

The bulls have control this morning with the AD line well above its previous day range, the TRIN neutral and the VIX falling.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:43:17 AM

Following up on that 9:39 post (didn't want to get too long-winded in one post), the SOX of course has a potential inverse H&S on its daily chart, so that the 60-minute regular one and the bigger potential inverse one are battling each other. Bulls do want to see the 60-minute one invalidated and the daily one confirmed by a push over 411-412, depending on how the neckline is drawn. I hate it when I see well-formed battling formations like these because they signal that bears are putting on a good struggle in the 60-minute time frame within a context of the bulls making a good push over a longer time frame. Who's going to win? Certainly should be watched.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 9:40:59 AM

QQQQ has broken yesterday's afternoon range high, and the 30 min cycle channel will remain bullish so long as price holds above the 7200 tick SMA at 37.15 currently.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:40:01 AM

SOX still steaming ahead, at 405.17 as I type. Semi bulls do not want to see it halted near here and then drop down below 397 again as that confirms a H&S on its 60-minute chart. Market bulls of any stripe don't want to see that happen, as a SOX push is probably a needed component to extended gains, as Jim has been pointing out.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:37:52 AM

The RLX also isn't moving much, suggesting that whatever pushes the OEX slightly higher this morning might not be coming from the retailers that are common components of both indices . . . RLX beginning to inch higher as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:35:39 AM

Unlike the SOX, another indicator index I like to watch, the TRAN, isn't moving much.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:33:41 AM

Semi-related stocks performed well in Europe during the early part of the European session at least, and the SOX is climbing now, at 402.62.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 9:32:47 AM

The OEX opens near the flat-line level, giving as few clues as possible as to early direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 9:31:06 AM

QQQQ is holding within yesterday's range despite the strong gyrations in the premarket. Current 30 and 60 min channel support remain at the 37 level, resistance up to 37.31-.36. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 9:27:07 AM

I can't remember a morning when the iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) was among the morning's most active.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 9:26:13 AM

Pre-market Most Actives ... QQQQ $37.11 -0.1%, SPY $118.93 -0.2%, TLT $92.34 +1.05%, SNDA $37.45 +8.17%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/4/2005 9:11:23 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $1.45 and set for selling at $-0.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 9:06:21 AM

Headline just out:

9:04am CORRECT: U.S. PAYROLLS UP 119,000 IN BUSH'S FIRST TERM

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:59:03 AM

Big upside reversal in the US Dollar Index at this Link .

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 8:56:32 AM

Much of the early and immediate move in the currency market has been erased. Will our markets gyrate like this, too, or will the impact have been settled by the cash open? The OEX ended the day yesterday just below the midpoint of the day's range. It sprang up from the converging 30- and 50-sma's. The close nevertheless reversed all but two cents off Wednesday's climb, so I didn't view that as positive a close as some might have. The two candles blended together would have created a long-legged doji, a technique that Steve Nison of candlestick fame sometimes mentions. That's indicative of indecision as I mentioned near our close yesterday. That's also a potential reversal signal at the top of a climb.

Indecision isn't always resolved by a decline, however. During the rally off the late summer/early fall lows, we saw many indices produce potential reversal signals, open in accordance with a possible fulfillment of the reversal signal (at or below the doji close and then dropping from there), only to bounce up by the end of the day. We shouldn't count on a reversal signal being produced, but should be aware of the possibility of its happening. What bulls don't want to see is a gap-lower open below the 50-sma at 566.90 and then to see those converging 30- and 50-sma's serve as resistance in any early rebound attempt. What bears don't want to see is an open at or just above those averages and an immediate strong bounce. The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart showed that resistance thinned overhead above 568.50. Today's opening is likely to skew those Keltner lines for a while, but that's what was showing up yesterday.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:51:51 AM

Session low for euros here as well at 1.2914, gold down to 415.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:49:16 AM

Session low for gold here at 416.5.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:46:46 AM

Headlines:

8:45am GREENSPAN: NO HISTORICAL PRECEDENT FOR TRADE FLOWS

8:45am GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. ECONOMY CAN HANDLE TRADE ADJUSTMENT

8:45am GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT CAN'T WIDEN FOREVER

8:45am GREENSPAN SEES MORE SUPPORT OF FISCAL RESTRAINT IN U.S.

8:45am GREENSPAN: CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT MAY FALL IN LONG RUN

8:45am GREENSPAN SEES U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT STABILIZING

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:39:50 AM

Note the steep dive in the USD Index. Link This chart is supposed to be 30 minutes delayed, but the sharp drop coincides with the spike in currency futures and metals that I observed at 8:30. You can refresh this chart by hitting F5 in your browser.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:34:44 AM

Ten year yields continue to dive, TNX now down 7.5 bps to 4.088%, a 1.8% decline this AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:32:05 AM

Equities have stabilized, while bonds are holding their gains, rising now with TNX down a whopping 6.2 bps to 4.101%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:30:59 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. JAN. RETAIL JOBS UP 19,000

8:30am U.S. PAYROLLS UP 185,000 IN BUSH'S FIRST TERM

8:30am U.S. DEC. PAYROLL GAIN REVISED TO 133,000 VS. 157,000

8:30am U.S. JAN. SERVICES PAYROLLS UP 177,000

8:30am U.S. JAN. MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS FALL 25,000

8:30am U.S. JAN. AVERAGE WORKWEEK FALLS TO 33.7 HOURS

8:30am U.S. JAN. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 0.1%

8:30am U.S. PAYROLL BENCHMARK REVISIONS ADD 203,000 PAYROLLS

8:30am U.S. JAN. PAYROLLS EXCEED FEB. 2001 PEAK FOR 1ST TIME

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:30:26 AM

Equities diving, bonds and gold jumping. Here's the report.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/4/2005 8:21:06 AM

Recovering from a system crash here, apparently successfully. Equities are higher, ES trading 1192, NQ 1516, YM 10602 and QQQQ +.12 at 37.27. Gold is down .6 to 417.9, silver -.021 to 6.66, ten year notes +.0312 at 112 1/16. Crude oil is up .55 at 47.

We await the jobs report at 8:30, nonfarm payrolls est. 200K, unemployment rate est. 5.4%, hourly earnings .2% and average workweek est. 33.8. At 9:45, we get Michigan Sentiment, est. 96.

Linda Piazza : 2/4/2005 7:01:55 AM

Good morning. Although the Nikkei closed lower, dragged down by the banking sector, most other Asian markets posted gains. Most European markets currently post gains, too. Our futures are modestly higher, but off their post-European-open highs. As of 6:47 EST, gold was down $0.30 and crude, up $0.43. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

As it's often done lately, the Nikkei dove in early trading. As it's also often done lately, it saw late-day buying that moved it off its low of the day. The Nikkei still closed lower by 28.95 points or 0.25%, at 11,360.40. Banks led the declines again, with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group leading the banks+ again after continued speculation about the impact of bad loans on their earnings report. In addition, the abandonment of Sumitomo Mitsui's bid for UFJ Holdings has led to the stepping down of its president, one newspaper reported. Other banks declined. Toyota announced that it might not meet cost-cutting targets it had set, and the stock declined. The same action that boosted steelmakers yesterday hurt Toyota because the company blamed the rising costs of steel plates on its possible inability to meet cost-cutting goals. Many other exporters fell. Trend Micro performed well, however, after the Internet security company reported earnings.

Many other Asian markets turned in positive closes, however. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.26%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.51%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.26%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.52%. China's Shanghai Composite leaped another 2.15%, climbing off recently hit multi-year lows.

Most European markets trade in the green, too. Some chip-related stocks were gaining in early trading. Retailers were in the news, too, with Royal Ahold rising after detailing its efforts to return to a better financial position, and French retailer Carrefour gained after detailing changes in its executive lineup. Pharmaceuticals and chemical companies attracted attention, with Akzo Nobel disappointing and falling and Novartis announcing a share repurchase program and rising. Morgan Stanley upgraded Deutsche Bank to an overweight rating, and Deutsche Bank raised Epcos to a hold rating from its previous sell rating, helping these German stocks to post gains.

As of 6:48 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 22.60 points or 0.46%, at 4,930.90. The CAC 40 was higher by 14.69 points or 0.37%, at 3,943.63. The DAX was higher by 31.11 points or 0.73%, at 4,312.75.

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