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Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 11:53:52 PM

Overstock.com (OSTK) $53.94 +0.09% ... top executives bought $2 million worth of company's shares last week. Reuters story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 10:19:47 PM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $1.35 and set for program selling at $-0.48.

OI Technical Staff : 2/7/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 9:42:21 PM

Cendant (CD) $22.97 +2.45% ... reported quarterly net income of $357 million, or $0.33 per share, which was up a healthy 30% from the same period a year ago and inline with consensus estimates for $0.33 per share. Revenue was up 13% to $4.90 billion and topped consensus estimates of $4.60 billion. Shares of CD last ticked down $0.02 at $22.95 in extended session trade.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 5:45:13 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 4:30:12 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's activity .... Closed out the swing trade long for the QQQQ at $37.80. ($+0.62, or 1.67%) Day trade long (carried overnight) for Nortel Networks (NT) at $3.10, stop raised to $3.09, targeting $3.20.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 4:12:49 PM

DIA $107.04 +0.03% ... SPY $120.16 -0.05%

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 4:08:08 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.04, SPY $120.14

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 4:09:47 PM

Nortel (NT) $3.13 -1.26%... for MM profiles, not sure that trader would have been filled (exiting day trade bull) at $3.15, though offer size was reduced. Will hold trade overnight. Cisco (CSCO) $18.16 +1.45% and Lucent (LU) $3.29 +2.17% both went out at/near session highs, thought we'd get some $3.15 takers for NT at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 3:56:46 PM

Lucent (LU) 3.29 +2.17% ... session high

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:56:11 PM

The TRAN just above 3600 (depending on the close), the SPX near 1200, the SOX just under the converging 200-ema and -sma, the RLX just testing a big gap from last month: need I go on? Lots of indices closing today near breakout or breakdown points. Tomorrow may be important.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 3:54:05 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert ... for Nortel Networks (NT) at the OFFER of $3.15.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:49:07 PM

During the rally off the summer lows, I seem to remember some times when we saw a big-range day followed by what appeared to be setting up as a doji the following day, only to see a late-day push transform that doji into a much stronger candle. Will that happen today? The OEX better hurry, if so, but it's within the realm of possibility. If a bull, I wouldn't like to see that doji left behind. Sometimes, the OEX does nothing more than consolidate another day or so after such a candle the day after a strong climb. Sometimes it falls. Bulls would rather not see that doji, though. On the SPX, they don't want to see a decline and close below 1200.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 3:48:41 PM

Very light volume today- QQQQ's traded 64M shares so far, NYSE 1.12B, Nasdaq 1.47B. This isn't what bears were hoping to see for synchronized 30 min and 60 min downphases during most of the day.

James Brown : 2/7/2005 3:47:15 PM

ScanSource (SCSC) is up 1.77 percent and breaking out over resistance at the $66.00 level. This looks like a bullish entry point given the double-bottom near $60 and its exponential 200-dma last month. We would target the $70 level although the early December highs near $68 might poise a challenge.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:43:56 PM

If the OEX doesn't manage that push up toward 577-578 this afternoon, it looks as if it might need to retreat again toward 574.30 or maybe even a bit lower to regroup before trying again.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 3:38:39 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:38:13 PM

This continuation-form inverse H&S is sort of falling apart now and looking a big more ragged than it did earlier, but here's what I'm watching on the three-minute chart: Link The OEX is having trouble staying above that neckline.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 3:36:44 PM

Travelzoo (TZOO) $58.74 +2.54% ... finds a bid from $56.00

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 3:30:45 PM

QQQQ is running more steeply higher here as the 30 min channel turns up within the now-flat 60 min channel. Both have upper resistance coinciding at 37.75. The intraday bias is bullish above 37.61.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:29:43 PM

Still not enough follow-through on the OEX after it bounced climbed above the descending trendline off the day's high, presumably the top trendline of a bull flag. This continues to be a bit worrisome for short-term bulls, but there's a possibility that the OEX's stunted right shoulder for the continuation-form inverse H&S wasn't a shoulder at all. The OEX might still need to form a new one. This action, however, was one I worried about when I returned and saw the advdec line's trajectory. At about the time of my return this afternoon, the advdec line began moving up again, and it's still is generally moving higher, so hope remains. . . . and, as I type, the OEX, TRAN and SOX make another attempt to move higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 3:29:24 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,202.01 , QQQQ $37.69, DIA $107.16

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:38:34 PM

The RLX has climbed back inside that huge gap down from the 1/19 close to the 1/20 open. Gap resistance can occur anywhere within a gap, but are perhaps most likely to occur at the top, bottom and midpoint. The RLX's gains may slow until it's above the 30-sma again, with that average proving important for the RLX's trading pattern during the last few months. That average is at 443.52 with the RLX currently at 439.39.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:18:25 PM

The OEX poked above the neckline of that continuation-form inverse H&S visible on the three-minute chart, but couldn't stay there. Only the candle shadow pierces the neckline now. The OEX needs to sustain values above that neckline at about 575.27 before it drops to a new LOD, or it will have invalidated the formation.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:16:49 PM

TRAN trying to break higher. Its formation is a bit bear-flag-like, but if it can continue climbing, it will change the look . . . still climbing as I type. Be wary of a break back below 3600, though. The TRAN is at 3604.97 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:13:13 PM

The OEX just isn't seeing a lot of follow-through after breaking above the trendline off the day's high, which is a bit worrisome. I'm keeping an eye on a possible inverse H&S on the three-minute chart. It's roughly formed, but as long as it's still there, neckline at about 575.27, head at today's low, we can at least see the bulls still at work.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 3:06:04 PM

The previously reported record low of -8.7B for November's consumer credit was revised to a 2B gain.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 3:03:38 PM

The OEX is trying to climb through that Keltner resistance on the seven-mminute chart, with that resistance up to 575.42. So far, that 577-578 upside target first set up Friday still remains possible according to the 60-minute chart, but bulls want to see continued 60-minute closes above 574.00, if possible, and at least above 572.54.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 3:08:05 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 3:01:07 PM

Headlines:

3:00pm U.S. NOV CONSUMER CREDIT UP REV 1.1% VS FALL 5% PREV

3:00pm U.S. DEC CONSUMER CREDIT UP 1.8%, OR $3.1 BLN

Estimates were for 8.0B.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 2:56:20 PM

The OEX is up against Keltner resistance now on the seven-minute chart. Needs to break out again or that resistance will firm. The SOX keeps looking as if it's trying to break out, too, but it's going to need a strong impetus to break over those 200-ema's and -sma's. Market bulls would certain like to see it produce something other than a doji under those averages.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 2:54:40 PM

Cisco (CSCO) $18.10 +1.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 2:54:20 PM

Lucent (LU) $3.25 +0.93% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 2:53:45 PM

QQQQ's just popped back above upper descending wedge resistance, but remains quite light here and light overall, with just 54M QQQQ's traded so far today. Nonetheless, the 30 min cycle downphase has stalled, with resistance at 37.70. It should begin to turn up over the next 5-10 minues if the price holds above 37.60.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 2:53:36 PM

Nortel (NT) $3.15 -0.63% ... trying to make its move.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 2:45:39 PM

The OEX's Keltner picture is mixed. The OEX is facing Keltner resistance up to 575.30 or so but support is trying to firm underneath the OEX, too.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 2:43:08 PM

JP Morgan (JPM) $38.02 +0.87% ... while volume is relatively light, stock challenging its still trending lower 200-day SMA ($37.97) today. Stock has been either side for past several months.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 2:42:49 PM

So far, the OEX's five-minute 21-ema holds as support.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 2:39:25 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 2:36:28 PM

The OEX broke above the descending trendline off today's high and bounced while I was studying chart and preparing that last entry. Bulls want to see a new high and don't want to see an immediate drop back below the five-minute 21-ema at 574.68 because that suggests a potential stop-running move.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 2:34:21 PM

Lettuce not forget the 3PM release of Consumer Credit for December, est. 8B, prior -8.7B.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 2:32:42 PM

TRIN 1.11 +14.25% ... back to test DAILY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 2:30:53 PM

I'm back. I see that the SOX did test the converging 200-sma and -ema's and pulled back from them. On a 60-minute chart, today's pullback looks like a bull flag pullback, but it doesn't look so pleasant on the daily chart. I think bulls would like to see the SOX drive higher into the close and erase some of that gravestone doji look of today's chart. I also note that the TRAN prints a doji, with Friday's failure to participate in the rally perhaps foretelling this hesitancy. The TRAN balances right on 3600.

I see that the OEX's five-minute 21-ema, currently at 574.58, has not been supporting the OEX today and may be resistance now. The OEX is headed down toward the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 573.75 and 573.22, respectively, and bulls want to see those averages provide a bounce. Watch for a bounce off those averages and a break above the descending trendline off the day's high as a sign that the OEX might eventually reach toward 577-578, but the TRAN is showing few signs of bouncing from its 100/130-ema's, so I don't know that I'd assume that bounce is going to come. Even if the OEX does bounce, I also don't know that I'd suggest new entries as long as the advdec line was doing that sinking-lower number it's been doing today. Might be better to let the rest of the day go and see how markets shake out at the end of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 2:30:29 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) 18.14 +1.39% ... looks to challenge session high of $18.20. Lucent (LU) $3.25 +0.93% ... still off session high of $3.28. Nortel (NT) $3.13 -1.26% ... edging off of multiple re-tests of $3.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 2:21:44 PM

Metrologic Instruments (MTLG) $19.16 -6.3% ... weighed lower after an arbitrator in New York City issued a ruling in an intellectual property licencing agreement betweek MTLG and Symbol Tech (SBL) $18.80 -0.31%. The arbitrator ruled that certain MTLG handheld bar code scanning products are covered by a SBL licence and, therefore, MTLG must pay SBL royalties, plus interest, for sales of those products.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 2:18:54 PM

QQQQ is back above the descending wedge support line after printing a low a 37.52. A failure to return to and break the low within the next 10-15 minutes should see a short cycle upphase kick off from its current oversold condition. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 37.64.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 2:15:25 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Nortel Networks (NT) $3.12 -1.54% ... to $3.09 ... post profile high has been $3.14.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 2:05:06 PM

Session high for 10 year notes just now, with TNX currently down 2.8 bps to 4.045%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 2:07:55 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 1:57:52 PM

QQQQ has just kissed lower 30 min channel support, but the first test to 37.52 dojied back up. 37.57-.60 is now resistance above which the 30 min channel downphase should stall.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 1:50:40 PM

QQQQ $37.56 -0.50% ... slips below DAILY Pivot for first time today. Bigger test of support is WEEKLY Pivot ($37.52).

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 1:50:20 PM

QQQQ is testing the water below the lower descending wedge support line Link but the lower 30 min channel support hasn't budged from 37.52.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 1:41:56 PM

Those that may have purchased a home last spring or this summer... you might want to give your mortgage lender a call, check into a refinance. Last May, the 30-year yield ($TYX.X) was up at 5.5%, now at 4.429%. Might be able to save 1% on a 30-year. Depending on where you live, your home may have appreciated in value, now an opportunity to "sell high" and "borrow low." Some investors will park the funds in a state/federal tax exempt muni bond fund.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 1:31:15 PM

Session low for Nymex crude here at 45.125, -2.9%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 1:31:07 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 1:29:10 PM

QQQQ is bouncing from the lower wedge support line. If it breaks, current 30 min channel support is at 37.52.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 1:21:37 PM

Nominally lower low for QQQQ here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 1:19:52 PM

Cendant (CD) $22.95 +2.31% ... strong move ahead of tonight's earnings.

James Brown : 2/7/2005 1:18:00 PM

I'm not sure if Cypress Semiconductor (CY) is a good short-term long here but the stock has put in what looks like a significant bottom over the last seven months. Shares recently won the battle with its simple and exponential 200-dma's and broke through resistance at the $12.00 mark on Friday. Today Piper Jaffray upgraded CY to an out perform.

James Brown : 2/7/2005 1:15:15 PM

This morning before the opening bell Merrill Lynch downgraded the financial sector to an "under weight".

James Brown : 2/7/2005 1:13:15 PM

Google (GOOG) is trading back under the $200.00 mark down 2.37% to $199.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 1:10:58 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle downphase continues to disappoint, just as the previous one did last week prior to Friday's strong upward surge. While the current downphase has yet to abort, there's a bullish divergence in the short cycle TRIX and the 7200-tick SMA is very close overhead. A move above the 37.70 level for 5 minutes or better should be enough to stall the current 30 min cycle decline. Link

James Brown : 2/7/2005 1:08:15 PM

Engineered Support (EASI) is breaking out over major round-number resistance at the $60.00 mark and is passing its all-time highs from December 2003. Shares are up 3.47% to $62.01. Momentum traders can use today's move as a potential entry point just be aware of its earnings expected in late February.

James Brown : 2/7/2005 1:05:26 PM

Shareholders have approved the 3-for-1 stock split for high-flying Beazer Homes (BZH). The split will be payable on March 22nd, 2005 to shareholders of record on March 10th. The stock is not moving much on the news down 35 cents to $162.74.

James Brown : 2/7/2005 12:59:32 PM

Banking stock PNC continues to rebound from its trendline of higher lows and shares are up 1.38 percent on strong volume today. The company has turned away from its Riggs National (RIGS) merger deal. The MACD is strengthening its new buy signal. The top of PNC's rising channel appears to be the $58-60 range.

Tab Gilles : 2/7/2005 1:05:40 PM

With $USD hitting my 85 target, question remains...is this resistance or a breakout? Same holds for the gold sector as I noted earlier on several charts. These are key pivotal points being tested this week, one should watch carefully. Last week's gold sell-off was sparked by the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which lifted the dollar, as well as the IMF-related concerns. Many of the macro or hedge funds have liquidated their positions in gold, and so you are sitting here with a lot of them not holding any positions. I'm looking at $411/$412 on the 200/300 ma's as nearterm support for $GOLD.

Link Link

James Brown : 2/7/2005 12:53:15 PM

General Dynamics (GD) is breaking out over its 50-dma and looks ready to breakout from its two-week trading range. The stock was upgraded to an "out perform" from Goldman Sachs this morning.

Today's move breaks the two-month trend of lower highs. Bulls might consider bullish positions over $105.50 and target the $110 level for a short-term move.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 12:45:26 PM

Moby (on CNBC) getting crushed on his euro long. U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.15 +0.90% (30-min delayed) ... headed toward WEEKLY R2 (85.21)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 12:39:00 PM

Could be a bull wedge printing here for QQQQ, with upper descending resistance at 37.65-.66: Link . It's too early for a new 30 min cycle upphase, with the oscillators not yet oversold. But a strong upside break from here on expanding volume will have a potential implied target at 37.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 12:20:02 PM

The 30 min and 60 min channels have finally gotten in gear to the downside, making this prime time for bears. The intraday bias should be bearish so long as QQQQ holds below the 7200 tick SMA, currently at 37.73. However, the decline has so far been gradual and uncertain- because the daily cycle is still pointed north, this weak intraday downside suggests that the decline is merely corrective. A strong break south taking out 37.37 would change this so-far bullish picture.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 12:07:16 PM

Nortel Networks (NT) bullish entry point alert ... sitting a bid here at $3.10 and session low. Benchmarking Lucent (LU) $3.24 +0.62%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 12:06:10 PM

QQQQ breaks its previous low, printing 37.60 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 12:05:16 PM

New high for the USD Index as well above 85. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 12:04:34 PM

Session high for 10 year notes here, with TNX now negative, down .5 bps at 4.068%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 12:11:53 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 12:01:59 PM

Downside pennant break for QQQQ's just printed. 30 min channel support is below at 37.57, with the 7200 tick SMA above at 37.76. The 30 min cycle bias remains to the downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 11:51:06 AM

Back from a freeze and reboot to find QQQQ still coiling within the pennant noted earlier. The apex has narrowed to 37.68-37.73.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 11:37:31 AM

Bullish day trade long setup alert ... for Nortel Networks (NT) $3.13 -1.26%. Will be looking long with a trade at $3.10, stop $3.07, target a rebound to $3.20. NT either "cheap" or Lucent (LU) $3.25 +0.93% "expensive."

Tab Gilles : 2/7/2005 11:34:03 AM

$GOX weekly Additional chart to 10:54:37 AM post. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 11:25:49 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles I've made at this Link The DIA Feb. $108 calls (DIA-BD) are bid $0.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 11:15:03 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link The pennant I've identified could be the right side of a 2-day hunchback head and shoulders pattern. If so, then 37.82 should not be exceeded on this bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 11:08:55 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 10:55:43 AM

QQQQ is challenging declining 7200-tick SMA resistance right here.

Tab Gilles : 2/7/2005 10:54:37 AM

Lately, I've been looking at the gold sector. Specifically the $DJUSPM and $GOX. With the U.S. Dollar finding strength lately and the EUR/USD declining, this may present a buying opportunity. For several weeks now, I have been targeting 85 on the $USD. Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 10:50:30 AM

Look for resistance at 37.75 QQQQ on this bounce as the 60 min cycle upphase stalls out. The 30 min cycle remains bearish below 37.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 10:42:15 AM

New 30 min cycle downphase for QQQQ, with resistance declining to 37.90 as the channel rolls over. Bonds have pulled up, with TNX down to unchanged at 4.073%. Gold is holding an 80 gain, with HUI -.93% at 195.89 and XAU -1.54% at 89.71.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 10:37:09 AM

March Unleaded (hu05h) $1.2255 -2.77% ... some relief at the pump for consumers as unleaded falls below $1.25. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 10:32:53 AM

QQQQ update at this Link has QQQQ just failing on a bounce back to 7200-tick SMA resistance. Below 37.81, the 30 min cycle channel should continue to roll over, while below 37.70-.72, we should see a new downphase kick in.

Tab Gilles : 2/7/2005 10:27:15 AM

$GSO Computer Software Index; Bullish chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 10:27:12 AM

10:25 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 2/7/2005 10:24:27 AM

$WTIC continues to sell off and Murphy Oil appears to be topping out. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 10:16:16 AM

Nymex crude has pulled back further, -1.45% at 45.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 10:17:16 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for the QQQQ at $37.80. ($0.62, or +1.67%).

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 10:14:28 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 10:14:20 AM

QQQQ is pulling back to test rising 7200 tick SMA support at 37.81 currently. The bottom of the rising 30 min channel is currently 37.75. Link

Tab Gilles : 2/7/2005 10:17:58 AM

$SOX Friday I posted this chart Link with the 420 target. *Note the 200-ema? Link MACD suggests $SOX may test next Fibonacci level of 426.90 or even the January high. $SOX has broken out of descending channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 10:12:03 AM

The Fed has announced a 5B overnight repo with no expiries for a net add in that amount.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 10:05:54 AM

QQQQ $37.90 +0.41% ... edging higher into the "eBay gap"

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 10:03:49 AM

Bullish swing trade adjustments for the QQQQ $37.88 +0.35%. Raise bullish stop to $37.80, raise target to $38.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 10:02:23 AM

eBay (EBAY) $76.25 +0.48% ... on Sunday, the online auctioneer said it will lower the fees it charges to list items for sale. Also announced other changes in pricing and customer service policies in response to user feedback. Legg Mason calling the recent pullback in eBay as one of the most compelling opportunities in the market. Compares it to Dell following the Dell laptop manufacturing problems in the mid-1990s.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 9:52:08 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the QQQQ $37.85 +0.26% to $37.75

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 9:50:52 AM

QQQQ is back to 37.86 here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 9:48:10 AM

VIX.X 11.51 +2.67% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 10.38, 10.70, Piv= 11.22, 11.54, 12.06.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 9:45:06 AM

7200 tick SMA support has risen to 37.74 here. 30 min channel resistance has risen to 37.90. A failure to break 37.86 (the premarket high) should see that upper band begin to tick down.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 9:40:29 AM

QQQQ tests uppoer wedge support here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 9:39:49 AM

Swift Transportation (SWFT) $22.77 +0.65% ... notches a new 52-week high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 9:37:14 AM

QQQQ $37.78 +0.09% ... tight opening 5-minute range of $37.83-$37.78. Currently have a swing trade bullish stop at $37.70 and holding out for target of $37.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 9:22:25 AM

QQQQ has pushed higher this AM, nominally exceeding Friday's high and holding the 30 min cycle channel in its bullish posture. 37.70 is the current 7200 tick SMA support level above which this bullish bias will continue, but the cycle was overbought as of Friday's close. Any weakness this morning would have the potential to kick off a 30 min cycle downphase to last for several hours.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2005 9:16:53 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $1.35 and set for program selling at $-0.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 8:54:07 AM

Ten year treasuries are down slightly, TNX up .6 bps at 4.079% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 8:32:09 AM

Chinese internet SOHU is getting smoked, down 11% at 15.32 after meeting expectations with a decline in Q4 from 28 cents EPS to 17 cents, revenue declining from 11.6M to 6.5M.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2005 7:45:17 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1203, NQ at a session high of 1539, YM 10708 and QQQQ up 8 cents to 37.83. Gold is up 20 cents to 416.10, silver -.03 to 6.61, ten year notes -.078 to 112 37/64 and crude oil -.325 to 46.15.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for this morning as we await the 3PM release of Dec. consumer credit, est. 8B.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 6:55:31 AM

I'll be away from the MM this morning.

Late Friday morning, the OEX began producing 60-minute closes over a Keltner line that set an upside target near 577, but that upside target looked to be questionable because the OEX couldn't build on the supposed breakout signal. Finally, Friday afternoon, the OEX did begin moving up, not quite making it up to that upside target, now at 577.56.

For now, the OEX has extended its climb much further away from its five-minute 21/100/130-ema's than it usually extends. It may soon be time for it to pull back at least to the 21-ema at 573.46 if not the 100/130-ema's, at 571.26 and 570.78, respectively. Those wanting new bullish entries should watch for such a pullback and for a bounce from those averages. Friday afternoon, the OEX was using the 21-ema as a springboard.

If you're angling for a new pullback-and-bounce bullish entry, there are a few matters to keep on your radar screen. The SOX led the way Friday, with several OIN writers, me included, noting the SOX breakout. Now the SOX is just a couple of points away from its joined 200-sma and 200-ema's, at 420.79 and 421.37, respectively. Keep a watch on the SOX with relationship to these averages. The TRAN, also often a leading index, did not participate in the rally to the same degree as did some other indices. It produced an inside-day trade and closed below 3600, at 3597.81. Bulls don't want a downside trigger on that inside-day on the TRAN. The VIX's level of course remains concerning, but as I mentioned all last week, this can not be used as a market-timing tool. We don't know how much lower the VIX will go before turning around, and, as I also pointed out last week, the markets hit new highs in late December after the VIX hit its December low and started higher again.

Back when the OEX started higher, I mentioned that it would be a while before we knew whether the OEX would invalidate the potential H&S or would round down into another right shoulder. We know now, and my multiple warnings to bulls to protect profits now sound hollow. However, I'm still going to give those warnings. Buy those bounces as long as doing so continues to work, but pay special attention to likely resistance from 577.50 up to the years highs, especially as the SOX is testing its 200-sma and -ema. You want participation from the TRAN, too.

Linda Piazza : 2/7/2005 6:33:42 AM

Good morning. As had been anticipated, this weekend's G-7 meeting of finance ministers concluded without any material changes to the joint statement. The ministers "affirmed that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals" and deplored "[e]xcess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates" as undesirable. Some reporters believed that China affirmed its intention to take steps to move toward a flexible yuan. Others believe that not much is likely to change.

The Nikkei posted a strong gain, but couldn't quite close above 11,500. Other Asian markets gained, too, as do European markets. Our futures turned higher, with the NQ appearing to hold overnight gains better than the YM or ES contracts. As of 6:21 EST, gold was up $0.40, and crude, down $0.23. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei coiled in a tight range for the first hour of trade and then zoomed higher Monday morning. By the late afternoon, it had climbed above 11,500, but couldn't maintain that level and closed just below it, at 11,499.86. It still closed higher by 139.46 points or 1.23%. Exporters performed well in Japan and throughout most of Asia. Those included chip-related stocks.

Most other Asian markets climbed, too. The Taiwan Weighted was closed, but South Korea's Kospi soared 1.68%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.21%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.54%. China's Shanghai Composite was also closed.

Most European markets climb, too, despite an earlier hostage situation at the Spanish Consulate in Berne. That situation now seems to have been resolved, according to several news reports, with all personnel in the consulate safe. Oil prices weakened, too, and the dollar firmed against the euro. The decline in crude prices, helped along by a Kuwaiti official who deemed there to be little reason for an interim meeting by OPEC, benefited airlines and car manufacturers. Chip-related stocks gain in Europe, as they did in Asia.

German insurer Allianz profited from an upgrade to an overweight rating by Morgan Stanley, and Credit Suisse Group benefited from one by J.P. Morgan. Zurich Financial rose after it detailed the cost of the tsunami claims but reassured investors that the company's financial strength will not be strongly impacted. This weekend, Jim's Wrap commented on the upside given to U.S. tobacco companies due to a U.S. appeals court ruling, and British tobacco companies benefited, too. A sales warning from EMI damaged sentiment in the U.K., however.

As of 6:22 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 31.60 points or 0.64%, to trade at 4,973.10. The CAC 40 gained 17.17 points or 0.43%, to trade at 3,975.18. The DAX had gained 32.37 points or 0.75%, at 4,371.65.

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