Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Tab Gilles : 2/11/2005 1:27:27 AM

On Thursday, the dollar had hit a three-month high of 106.86 against the yen after North Korea pulled out of multilateral talks with the United States, Japan, China and South Korea and said it possessed nuclear weapons. On a short-term basis, the euro and the yen were pretty oversold. I'd mentioned that the US Dollar would likely run upto the 85/86 level and then hit resistance and decline causing the gold sector to rise inversely.Bottomline for the currency markets, the dollar dropped as caution put out early enthusiasm provoked by a report showing the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in December. There were too many dollar bulls have been chasing the same trade, so investors chose to take profits. Several gold and dollar charts.... Link Link Link Link Link

Dell's report after the close (down in after hours trading), will most likely put downward presuure on the $SOX. Link

I didn't report on Wednesday that the $NASI had gone negative for the day and also for Thursday. Does that mean a decline for the $COMPQ? Not really, it's only a couple of days and the MACD hasn't given any confirmation on a reversal. But keep an eye on it. Link

Oil prices steadied around $47 a barrel after jumping 4 percent in New York when the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth this year, revised upwards estimates of demand and predicted a sharp fall in stocks. Murphy Oil came close to my stop, which is the 10-ema, currently at $90. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:01:02 AM

March Crude Oil (cl05h) down $0.09, or -0.19% at $47.01. e-mini S&P (es05h) up 1.50, or 0.12% at 1,198.00. Chart with previously shown conventional (BLUE) and bullishly fitted 38.2% (PINK) at this Link e-mini NASDAQ (nq05h) up 2.0, or 0.13% at 1,508.50. Chart with previously shown conventional (BLUE) and bullishly fitted 38.2% (PINK) at this Link Humph! Note tomorrow's DAILY R1 for the NDX.X. Bugger looks correlative with conventional 50% in the futures. That's QQQQ $37.35. See conventional 38.2%? No way we get to WEEKLY R1 tomorrow. Is there? Bulls will be "BANKING" on the banks to trade strong.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 11:32:51 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.52 and set for program selling at $-0.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 11:31:26 PM

QQQQ some late night observations and analyis has me believing that in tomorrow's session, $37.35 is a formidable level of resistance. Using this week's current h/l and Thursday evenings close would have NEXT WEEK's WEEKLY Pivot at $37.35. That would be correlative with THIS WEEK's 61.8% weekly pivot retracement of $37.33.

OI Technical Staff : 2/10/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 9:52:48 PM

QQQQ $37.15 +0.10% ... last tick in extended session was $37.02. Here's updated 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Note a bullish trade profile I made. A short that I didn't, and now long at the close and targeting $37.50. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 9:29:04 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link I lost track of the BIX.X today, and shouldn't have. While there isn't a bank in the bunch (QQQQ), both the BIX.X and QQQQ have been tracking, so I'm thinking I need some selling in bonds again tomorrow (free up some cash) and get a bounce going for both the BIX.X and QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 5:53:21 PM

I have a meeting that I've got to get ready for. I'll post the Market Watch, Internals and Pivot Matrix when I get back later tonight. QQQQ is $37.01 in extended session and has been sitting on its 80.9% weekly Pivot Matrix since DELL earnings. Tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels are $36.68, $36.93, Piv=$37.12, $37.37, $37.56.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 5:57:36 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.50 +0.71% ... here's a quick shot of the 30 components as well as some Feb. "Max Pain" levels. Link Since my MM focus is the INDU/DIA (Linda=OEX, Jonathan=QQQQ), I was rather hesitant to hold the DIA Naked $108 calls. With 6 of the top 10 most heavily weighted all above their "Max Pain" and AIG exploding today, I thought it best to error on side of caution. With some re-steepening of yield curve last couple of session, if institutions try and start saving posititions, then best to keep NAKED calls losses small.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 5:10:33 PM

Thanks Marc .... I don't think eBay is going to shoot straight up to my target in the next week, but similar to your observations regarding Dell, there was a lot of $80 call action in eBay yesterday (I think some covered call, maybe naked selling) and once stock got above there today, $80 was a rock level of support. I've got a chart with three different retracement on them, and it is bullish to see eBay closing above $78.18-$80.42 zone. Since stock didn't trade $82.00 today (I was actually hoping it wouldn't) then this morning's $77 gets charted on the PnF Link . Now a trade at $82 would get eBay back on a PnF buy signal. If so, then initial bullish vertical count would hint at $91.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/10/2005 4:48:59 PM

The DELL 40 strike has a 1.47 pc ratio and that could be supportive. However, the 50 day ema is at 40.62 and unless the stock gets it back, it will be tough to rally. Don't rule anything out, though.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/10/2005 4:46:21 PM

Nice trade on EBAY, Jeff. Stock is finding support above 80 after hours now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 5:23:31 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... (deep breath).... Was stopped out of the bearish day trade c/o short in Blue Nile (NILE) at $28.30 ($-0.08, or -0.28%) Swing trade short shares of SBC Communications (SBC) $24.31, stop $24.45, targeting $23.05. Swing trade bearish put and bought three (3) more of the GLW Aug. $10 Puts (GLW-TB) for $0.40. Swing trade long 300 shares of Altair Nanotech (ALTI) at $2.72, stop $1.75, target revised higher to $10.50 (see PnF Chart) Swing trade sold 100 shares (1/3 of position) of Altair Nanotech (ALTI) at $4.65 ($+1.93, or 70.96%) Brings net long to 200 shares. Swing trade close out NAKED calls and bought back the five (5) DIA Feb. $108 Calls (DIA-BD) at $0.40 ($-0.10, or -33.33%). Swing trade long the QQQQ at $37.16, stop $36.90, targeting $37.50.

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:31:09 PM

Alert - EBAY reaffirming full year guidance

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:15:44 PM

Alert - PIXR earnings = +0.91, est +0.77

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 4:14:47 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.50 , SPY $119.71

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:12:28 PM

BRO earnings = +0.43, est = +0.41

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 4:12:11 PM

DIA $107.52 ... SPY $119.79

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:10:36 PM

AH earnings = + 0.74, est = +0.72 Guiding below consensus estimates

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:09:00 PM

Alert - Dell guiding up a penny for the current quarter but light on revenues. DELL down -$1.40 on the news.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 4:07:29 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $107.60 , SPY $119.85

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:07:28 PM

Alert - Dell earnings = +0.37, est +0.36, rev est +$13.5B

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:06:46 PM

SNWL earnings = +0.03, est = +0.02

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:06:18 PM

EYE earnings = +0.11, est = +0.18

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:01:51 PM

CSTR earnings = +0.26, est +0.26

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 4:01:12 PM

ADI earnings +0.28, est +0.29

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 4:01:02 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for the QQQQ $37.16 at the close! Stop $36.90, target $37.50. I don't mean to step on Jonathan's toes, but looks like a long here.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 3:58:08 PM

A new view of the OEX on a 15-minute chart: Link (Note: I do know the difference in "it's" and "its," despite the wrong usage in the annotations.)

Keene Little : 2/10/2005 3:55:28 PM

Jonathan, make snow angels for us too.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 3:46:35 PM

Stepping away for the day to dive into a snowstorm that appears to be shutting down the city core.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 3:46:23 PM

If you were to take the SOX's last four daily candles (including the current one, at the current level) and blend them into one candle, a legitimate tactic according to some, you would get a candle that looked much like today's except with longer legs. Essentially, you're creating a so-far-this-week weekly candle. It would be a small-bodied candle with a long upper shadow at the top of a climb. That would be indicative of indecision, part of a possible reversal signal, but still lacking confirmation by a strong decline to match the previous week's strong climb. It would warn traders to be on the watch for that confirming candle, but it's not ultimate proof that it will arrive. It's certainly not a sign of strength.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 3:56:42 PM

Bullish swing trade sell 1/3 position alert ... Selling 100 shares (or 1/3) of Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) at the bid of $4.65. Will also raise bullish target to the growing bullish vertical count of .... $10.50 If you bought 1,000, then sell 300-400. Pay yourself. With Valentine's Day just ahead remember that these micro-caps are like a box full of chocolates.....

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 3:40:50 PM

It's not threatening: the OEX is rolling down beneath that Keltner line that had been supporting it on the breakout. Next support is near 574.42, according to the three-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 3:39:59 PM

On this breakout, the OEX has been climbing a three-minute Keltner channel line currently at 575.00. The OEX threatens to roll beneath that Keltner line now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 3:36:37 PM

All time high alert/spread triple top alert ... for Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $4.53 +117.78% ... overhead supply should be limited.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 3:35:09 PM

Bearish swing trade naked call close out alert ... closing out the five (5) NAKED! DIA Feb. $108 Calls (DIA-BD) at the offer of $0.40. DIA $107.63 here

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 3:31:35 PM

I don't know if Comcast is having issues today, but I'm just booting up again after losing broadband service. The OEX pushed higher out of that consolidation above the inverse H&S neckline and now heads toward next Keltner resistance, from about 575.60-575.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 3:30:06 PM

QQQQ ticks above 7200 tick SMA resistance here, 30 min channel downphase stalls.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 3:32:57 PM

Here's the daily view of the Nasdaq. Note the bearish stochastic kiss and building Macd rollover below the zero line: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 3:25:38 PM

Pretty impressive divergence between the Dow futures and the Nasdaq today. The Dow has been marching steadily higher, QQQQ flopping net sideways with a lower low and lower high.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 3:22:49 PM

do you see the qqqq's putting a possible inverse H & S with head at 38.88 today & yesterday low of 37.07 being the left shoulder, and today 1:08pm low as being the right shoulder. with oversold conditions does this warrant being long the qqqq's. thank you in advance.

That's the scenario I described at the close yesterday, and which I was expecting for much of today. But, the 30 min and 60 min cycles were due for an upphase as of the open today, and after many hours, QQQQ's added all of 4 cents. That suggests corrective/sideways slop where there should have been a stronger bounce, and because the daily cycle is toppy and starting to tick lower, there's a good chance that the next 30 min cycle downphase will be impulsive. I see the inverse h&s off the 36.88 low, and if there's a powerful break above the 37.34ish neckline on expanding volume, then it will be in play. But on a cycle basis, I'm growing increasingly skeptical of a bullish move as the day wears on.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 3:16:23 PM

Price is so far holding below the 7200 tick SMA at 37.19 QQQQ- that's what's holding down the 30 min cycle here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 3:11:20 PM

QQQQ's bouncing from above the 37.00 line, but given that it's been prime time for the bulls for the past 3 hours, it's going to take a lot more than that to make a success out of this so-far corrective 30/60 min upphase.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 3:10:50 PM

The SOX is back below the 200-ema, testing the 200-sma. It's so far not putting on a convincing show of maintaining these averages. The TRAN dropped below the bottom of its recent consolidation band, but bounced up (and then fell again) and sits near the bottom of that range now. The Russell 2000 did spring up from the 30-dma and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the high on the daily chart, but it has not moved up to a challenge of the 50-dma and 50% retracement, much less moved above them. Not convincing yet.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 3:17:00 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 3:10:10 PM

An OEX climb up to the 576.60-ish upside target for its confirmed inverse H&S remains possible. Studying the 7-minute Keltner channel, it still looks possible. However, there's just something strange looking about the OEX's consolidation above the neckline. It's too volatile in relationship to the size of the formation that preceded it, at least in my opinion, and the OEX isn't really building on the breakout. The volatility after a breakout is a sign I was taught that made the breakout questionable, and so I'm keeping that in mind as I watch. Keltner-wise, all looks in order. Just feels iffy.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 2:57:55 PM

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $4.06 +95% ... 34.19 million shares so far. Almost a turn of its public float today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 2:56:32 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 2:55:37 PM

Those in any position, bullish or bearish, should remember Dell's report tonight. In his 11:32 post on the Futures side, Marc commented on the pessimism in Dell option sentiment, a sometimes contrarian indicator. As you're making your decisions about holding over tonight, factor that into your decision.

The Nikkei will not be open tonight, so it's possible that overnight trading, at least in the early part of the night, could be somewhat aimless. Tomorrow morning sees Germany's January Wholesale Price Index y/y and the eurozone December OECD Leading Indicators. I'm not certain whether those will be market-moving or not. Today, the FTSE 100 closed right at 5,000, a number the FTSE 100 hasn't seen since mid 2002. Above 5000, it enters a congestion zone that lasted for most of a year, so gains might slow, or the FTSE might pull back.

What I'm suggesting is that we might not have a lot to measure futures action against overnight. Are European markets zooming, but our futures not zooming along with them? Is the Nikkei diving but our futures holding up relatively well? We perhaps won't have that kind of information against which to measure any post-Dell reaction.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 2:55:17 PM

Nymex crude closed with a 3.58% gain at 47.075. Bonds are heading into the cash close near their lows, TNX +9 bps at 4.067% for a 2.26% gain on the day.

Jim Brown : 2/10/2005 2:51:37 PM

Fed governor Stern saying that inflation is still tame despite recent reports showing an accelerated rate of growth.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 2:49:19 PM

Back from a phone call as I watched the 30 min cycle roll over on the break back below 7200 tick SMA support. Below 37.18, the channel should remain negative, and the failure just north of 37.30 qualifies as a much lower high. Absent a decisive break higher from here- of roughly 75 points- QQQQ will put in a lower high and lower low for the day. This fits in perfectly with the bearish stance on the overbought daily cycle.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 2:42:24 PM

The OEX came back to test 574, the neckline of the inverse H&S. As I said earlier, this all felt iffy to me.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 2:43:24 PM

Jane mentioned that she would be doing an article on wedges for Monday's Traders Corner. Here's a rising bearish wedge that I'd noted last week, with the TRAN traveling in a descending regression channel after the breakdown. Trouble is, that looks a little like a bull flag pullback: Link Bears want to see a breakdown out of that channel. The TRAN looks as if it's doing its best.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 2:30:33 PM

We've had a week of battling inverse and regular H&S's again. Late yesterday, the OEX confirmed a H&S visible on its 15-minute chart, but never made it anywhere near the downside target. Today, it reformed itself into an inverse H&S, with yesterday's drop through the confirmation level forming the head for the new inverse formation. Now it's confirmed the inverse formation. Will the OEX get any further away from that confirmation level to the upside than it did yesterday's to the downside?

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 2:23:34 PM

The OEX hasn't made it down to 574 and may not. It's instead finding support on a five-minute Keltner line currently at 574.49 (on a five-minute closing basis) and using that as a springboard. Bulls want to see it continue to produce five-minute closes above that Keltner line. Still looking a little iffy to me.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 2:17:24 PM

QQQQ's chopping its way sideways, still grinding out higher highs and higher lows with little conviction: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 2:10:02 PM

The OEX's battle with that last Keltner resistance was not successful and it may be headed back to the neckline again to test that, at about 574.04.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 2:07:54 PM

Lost my broadband connection for a few minutes. I'm calling up all my programs again, but it looks as if the OEX is battling the last Keltner resistance on the 7-minute chart beofre the 576.60-ish upside target of its inverse H&S. The SOX has inched above the 200-ema, but only a few cents and the Russell is moving higher, too. Anyone in bullish trades need to watch that Russell 2000 test of its 50-dma and 50% retracement of the decline off the high, at 630.64 and 630.08, respectively. The Russell 2000 is at 627.91 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 2:15:35 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 2:01:36 PM

QQQQ is now testing upper 30 min channel resistance at 37.30, back to yesterday's confluence zone. Look for the heavier resistance to assert itself at 37.40.

Compared with yesterday's decline, this rise is looking corrective so far, and as I noted yesterday, it should fail below yesterday's high to confirm the daily cycle downphase just getting started. A break above 37.80 would negate that "bullish 30 min cycle within bearish daily cycle" outlook.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 1:54:54 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 1:47:59 PM

Neckline still holding, but the OEX is essentially testing it, not springing from it yet. The OEX has that 574.50-ish resistance to get through first.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 1:45:30 PM

The 30 min cycle should remain bullish above the rising 7200 tick SMA at 37.12 QQQQ. Channel support is up to 37.00, resistance now 37.30.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 1:41:25 PM

So far, the OEX move above the neckline of its inverse H&S is holding, but the OEX isn't able to build on gains. The upside target would be near 576.60, near the upper Keltner resistance on the seven-minute OEX chart. That chart suggests that the OEX is going to have to face down 574.50-ish resistance before it can really move much higher, though. Based on this chart's evidence, the confirmation is still iffy and the time of day at which it occurred makes it more so. Bulls want to see that neckline level hold.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 1:38:44 PM

There's a reason I refrain from guessing which direction a stop-running push will come. They're unpredictable. You'd think I'd at least get it right 50% of the time. The OEX leaped right over the three-minute 100/130-ema's, proving their relevance while it climbed. The OEX is right at the neckline for that potential inverse H&S visible on its 15-minute chart, still testing it. The SOX has bounced back above its 200-sma and -ema, and the Russell has bounced some, too, looking as if it may have just confirmed that inverse H&S visible on its five-minute chart. It hasn't yet tested key levels on the daily chart, however. They're still ahead.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 1:35:19 PM

Session low for 10 year notes here, TNX now up 10.4 bps at 4.081%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 1:30:49 PM

The bid to cover on the 14B 10 yr note auction was a mediocre 2.05 at a 4.049% yield.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 1:29:42 PM

A big downside move in bonds here, with TNX up 2.11% or 8.4 bps at 4.061%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 1:28:52 PM

QQQQ's bounced sharply and is testing the previous bull flag high, now at 37.20. First resistance above that comes at 37.29, the current rising 30 min channel top.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 1:42:28 PM

Good Gravy Alert! ... for Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $3.35 +61.05% Link ... if we were to get a $3.25 print tomorrow, that would be a reversing higher point and figure buy signal with initial bullish vertical count to $6.00! Stock did trade $2.00 this morning so can't chart X's today.

Jane Fox : 2/10/2005 1:27:17 PM

Dateline WSJ In an effort to garner the international respect due a nuclear power, North Korea publicly announced for the first time that it has nuclear weapons and plans to keep them, saying it will pull out of six-nation disarmament talks. It may not do the already-isolated nation much good, however, and could create huge headaches for its neighbors and the U.S.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 1:26:21 PM

eBay (EBAY) $80.38 +1.75% ... presses best levels of the session and stock has been all over the map today. It's "Analyst Day" for eBay! Late last night I was looking at bar chart of eBay. After sharp selloffs in the past, it has been a positive sign of a "bottom" if the stock can close up for three sessions in a row.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 2:26:13 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles I've made at this Link Note: Still having problems with decimalization. Have removed p/l column for now. I'm going to reinstall QCharts and see if that fixes things. Too much good trading today to shut down though.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 1:24:12 PM

Laughing. So much for my guess. The OEX rises toward the three-minute 100/130-ema's at 573.15 and 573.29, respectively. I'd still be okay with my just-uttered guess, I suppose, if the OEX were to find resistance there and drop toward 571.80 or so, but that doesn't mean that will happen.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 1:22:00 PM

On the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, there is the slightest hint--just a hint--that resistance is beginning to firm up more than support. If I had to guess, then, I'd guess that the OEX would find it easier to decline toward 571.84 than to rise to 573.61, but that's nothing but a guess that's a product of my having too much time to sit and stare at charts. Based on this, I'd guess that a stop-running push, if it were to occur over the next few minutes, would likely be to the downside. Keltner lines might align themselves differently after the next few minutes, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 1:11:16 PM

QQQQ has now violated bull flag support and is testing 7200 tick SMA support. I'm still expecting a 30 and 60 min cycle upphase to kick in, but that expectation is waning as the day progresses. The bulls should have been up and running by now.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 1:07:30 PM

The OEX has certainly settled into an equilibrium position with regard to its Keltner channels, traveling in an even tight range than I had envisioned. We just have to wait for a breakout now to know what happens next. Be careful. Such a breakout might come during the stop-running time of day. If it does and the breakout holds, then market might move further in the direction of the breakout. If it does and it gets slapped back immediately, expect a test of the other side of the range, watching to see how that test progresses.

Tab Gilles : 2/10/2005 1:05:51 PM

$GOX Followup to last several posts on gold and the dollar...nice move up! Link Have to step out for the afternoon, will go into detail tonight.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 1:12:43 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 2/10/2005 1:02:20 PM

$SOX weekly Link

daily Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 12:56:48 PM

Still no strength from the TRAN and the RUT, both failing to climb much after stabilizing. I am watching a potential inverse H&S on the RUT's five-minute chart, although it still lacks a right shoulder and so it's difficult to determine yet where the neckline would be when crossed. The SOX, on the other hand, has a rudimentary potential H&S on its five-minute chart, also still lacking a right shoulder.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 12:54:38 PM

Note that volume has declined considerably on the pullback off 37.20 QQQQ. This looks like a small bull flag to me, but to qualify it will have to hold 37.08-.10, and will ultimately need to break above 37.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 12:50:54 PM

Nymex crude is holding the bulk of its gains, up 1.2 or 2.64% at 46.65 here. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 12:46:50 PM

In addition to watching the SOX, TRAN, and RUT today, we ought to add the SPX. It's been balancing on its 50-dma at 1191.54, as futures writers have been noting. Bulls want to see it continue to do so, but they would need to see a breakout above the SPX's recent range to really feel any level of comfort.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 12:41:30 PM

That push didn't go anywhere, did it? The OEX still prints 15-minute candles strung out in a straight line along the mid-channel S/R. Shorter-term Keltner charts, such as the three-, five-, and seven-minute charts don't clarify direction, either. They give conflicting information or no information, with lines strung out everywhere.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 12:32:04 PM

QQQQ has run up to the combined 30 and 60 min channel tops Link but given how oversold the 30 min and 60 min cycles had become, any pullback that bounces above the session lows should confirm the upphases in these cycles now kicking off. 37.05-37.09 is confluence support.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 12:34:45 PM

Swing trade long alert ... taking 300 shares of Altair Nanotech (ALTI) Link at the offer of $2.72. Stop $1.75 and target $6.00 to begin. Wonder if Energizer Holdings (ENR) $58.92 +0.13% Link has heard of these guys?

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 12:27:31 PM

Note that there's a potential inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, head at yesterday's low, neckline at about 574.15.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 12:26:28 PM

Next 15-minute Keltner resistance for the OEX is at 573.83.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 12:38:25 PM

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $2.69 +28.8% Link ... never heard of them, but top of today's percentage gainer list on BIG volume of 7 million shares (39.9 million float). Company announced breakthrough in lithium battery electrode materials, which will enable a new generation of rechargeable battery to be introduced into marketplace. New materials will allow rechargeable batteries to be manufactured that have three times the power of existing lithium ion batteries at the same price and with recharge times measured in just a few minutes rather than hours!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 12:24:16 PM

QQQQ is breaking back above yesterday's low, with the 30 min cycle channel now in an upphase. 7200 tick SMA support is holding at 36.98. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 12:17:58 PM

I didn't know what I was saying earlier when I said that the OEX would probably travel in a range. I thought a one-point range either side of 573.15 was likely, not this fraction-of-a-point either side.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 12:17:44 PM

Ten year treasuries remain weak with March ZN futures testing the 113 level as TNX breaks above 4.04%, currently +6.7 bps at 4.044%, a 1.68% gain for the day.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 12:07:47 PM

The advdec line is rising again. The SOX balances between its 200-sma and 200-ema. The OEX balances at mid-channel S/R on the 15-minute chart. But neither the TRAN nor the RUT have been able to muster any strength at all. There's some small hope for the RUT, in that it appears to be trying to find support on its 30-sma and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the high. If it can bounce from there, it's still got the 50-sma to face, but at least it's a start and might relieve some pressure on the markets. However, if it drops below that 38.2% retracement level, currently at just under 624, and maintains values under that level, that questions whether the RUT might not be headed toward 612-613 or maybe even 604-605.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 12:03:55 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 12:09:36 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 11:58:13 AM

30 min cycle upphase starting to tick up here for QQQQ Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 11:56:58 AM

I said earlier today that I wondered if the OEX was trying to settle into an equilibrium position in which it traded about a point either side of 573.15, and it does appear to be trying to do so. Above the current central Keltner channel level, sometimes S/R, too, the next resistance is at about 573.82, lower than it was earlier. That coincides roughly with the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 573.64 and 573.84. So, the presumption might be that the OEX is likely to remain range-bound for a while . . . until it breaks out of that range.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 11:54:17 AM

Trade target correction alert! Swing trade bearish target for SBC Communications (SBC) is $23.05 ... not $24.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 11:50:38 AM

QQQQ is breaking above 7200 tick SMA resistance here, chellenging upper descending 30 min channel and confluence resistance at 37.05.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 11:46:42 AM

Right now, the OEX does battle with the five-minute 21-ema at 572.93.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 11:46:53 AM

Bearish swing trade put round to full position alert ... taking three (3) more of the GLW Aug. $10 Puts (GLWTB) at the offer of $0.40. Corning (GLW) $11.46 -1.88% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 11:39:06 AM

QQQQ is trading 36.94 here, with the 7200 tick SMA down to 37.00. The 30 min cycle will continue to trend in oversold so long as price stays below this level.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 11:35:21 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Note: QCharts still having some decimalization problems with MMM, GLW, DIA options.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/10/2005 11:32:40 AM

There is a lot of pessimism in the DELL option sentiment. Overall PC ratio is 1.09. The 42.5 strike has a 2 ratio. Hmm. This could be a gangbuster of a long for tomorrow for DELL.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 11:30:49 AM

The OEX did find support at the 572-572.20 region, and may indeed be settling into an equilibrium position on the 15-minute chart.

Jane Fox : 2/10/2005 11:28:33 AM

I have also noticed the TICKs have not made a +1000 reading since Tuesday.

Jane Fox : 2/10/2005 11:25:27 AM

TRIN is still within its neutral band but has been rising all day matching a falling AD line. It has been a while since I have seen these two confirm each other. VIX is also rising.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 11:23:19 AM

Session low for 10 year bonds here, -.3281 at 113 3/64, with TNX +5.6 bps at 4.029%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 11:20:44 AM

Session high for April gold futures here, +4.90 at 419.40. HUI and XAU are both up 3.59% here.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 11:17:15 AM

Advdec line still dropping. The OEX come down to test the 572-572.15 level shown as support on the 15-minute Keltner chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 11:16:58 AM

Next confluence support is at 36.80 QQQQ. The 30 min cycle is now trending in oversold territory, with the 60 min cycle also oversold but not yet trending. A break below 36.80 would do it on that longer cycle, but again, the odds would favor a bounce first.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 11:10:19 AM

The Fed added another 8.25B in 6 day repos, bringing the day's total net add to 9.75B.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 11:08:49 AM

Internals are now trending in directions that support the idea of continued weakness, even if the TRIN's level is more neutral than bearish. The OEX's 15-minute chart looks more neutral than bearish, too, though. It looks as if the OEX is trying to settle into an equilibrium position on that chart, perhaps to trade in an about one-point range either side of the central channel level at 573.15. I'm watching for a test of 572-572.15 to see if that still seems likely or if the OEX breaks through that 15-minute support, thereby changing the picture.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 11:08:27 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 11:12:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:57:13 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:54:49 AM

The SOX balances on the 200-sma and -ema.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:52:59 AM

Turning to the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, the OEX looks vulnerable to 572.20 unless the OEX can maintain 15-minute closes above 573.26.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 10:48:10 AM

The 30 min cycle channel is rolling over here, with price plunging through the 30 and 60 min cycle bottom. QQQQ is bearish below 37.05, with the key 30 min cycle now oversold and trending. 36.95 is being tested now- do or doodoo time for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 11:53:31 AM

Swing trade short alert for SBC Communications (SBC) $24.31 here, stop $24.45, target $23.05. North Amer. Telecom Index (XTC.X) 699.05 -0.52% Link looks to be failing from "right shoulder" of h/s top.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:46:18 AM

Here's what the OEX's three-minute Keltner chart shows now. The OEX is trying to balance on thin Keltner support now and perhaps to rise to retest resistance. It doesn't so far look as if it would be successful in breaking above that resistance gathering overhead, and may not even be able to balance on this thin support. It looks vulnerable to 572.60, either after or without a test of 573.75-ish resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 10:39:14 AM

Yesterday's low is cracking here, with 30 and 60 min channel support falling to 37.00 QQQQ. A nominally lower low could be a terminal dip in the 60 min cycle downphase from yesterday, but below 36.95, the bulls will have a problem as the 30 min cycle begins to trend.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 10:38:30 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.08 +0.59% ... challenging its November highs here. On January 18, this closed-end junk bond fund declared a regular monthly dividend of $0.075.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:31:34 AM

The Russell 2000 can't make any headway today. The SOX has come back, though, to retest its 200-ema at 421.36 and 200-sma at 419.66, with the SOX currently at 420.90. If the SOX can hold here and bounce again, that might help sentiment. Otherwise, it looks like a failed attempt to get back over those averages this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 11:16:14 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 421.25 +0.78% ... sellers were steady on revisit of WEEKLY R1. Session high has been 425.25.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:29:06 AM

So far, the OEX has been unable to build on gains. It's testing those three-minute 21/100/130-ema's again, threatening to fall below them all as I type, with the lowest at 573.62.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 10:24:25 AM

Bonds continue to firm, TNX +3.4 bps now at 4.012%, as gold and silver remain strong, with gold up 2.30 to 416.80 and silver +2.78%. HUI is up 1.93% at 199.33 and XAU is +1.72% at 91.19.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 10:40:50 AM

3M (MMM) $83.78 +0.51% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 10:26:36 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.22 +0.44% ... Percentage Gainers AIG $71.36 +2.95% Link HON $38.24 +2.27%http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=hon&N=A&C=2, CAT $91.42 +0.86% Link ... Percentage Losers PFE $24.74 -1.35% Link HPQ $21.27 -1.20% Link KO $42.54 -0.51% Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 10:21:33 AM

QQQQ has yet to touch yesterday's low, and this continues to feel like a broad 60 min channel bottom trying to form, with the 30 min cycle channel chopping sideways within it. A break above the session high of 37.28 will be necessary to confirm it, and the current session low will need to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 10:17:12 AM

Level 3 Communications (LVLT) $2.09 -7.52% Link ... moves to top of today's most active. Operator of fiber-optic telecom network reported narrower Q4 loss.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:13:21 AM

And now the advdec line pulls back a little again, although still in the upper half of its day's range. We saw the USD spike up into the release of the crude numbers and then soar afterwards, but then quickly retrace all those gains (at least against the yen and some other currencies), and I was hoping that we'd see more clarity in the equities this morning than we did there. I'm just not yet seeing any clarity in a mixture of behaviors across indices.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:09:19 AM

The OEX takes the side of the SOX and climbs. It's popped above the three-minute 100/130-ema's at 573.59 and 573.80. It also popped above the five-minute versions and now heads back down to test them. Bulls want to see 573.60 hold as support, and preferably 574. With the Russell 2000 not confirming strength in other indices, and the TRAN not, either, anyone considering a bullish play on a successful retest of these averages and a bounce from there should consider such a trade high risk and should do as Jane mentioned earlier--practice good account-management practices and honor your stops. I don't trust the climb yet without that confirmation, so I'm not suggesting going long.

Jane Fox : 2/10/2005 10:06:28 AM

Linda and along with a falling VIX and TRIN.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 10:06:49 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:05:43 AM

Advdec line is climbing again.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:04:35 AM

SOX still climbing, though. Frankly, I don't see any clarity this morning. The SOX is performing as bulls need to see it perform, but the Russell 2000 isn't, and the TRAN isn't. The advdec line's trajectory isn't. The SOX is just soaring, though. Either it's going to tug other indices higher or they're going to tug it lower.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:02:33 AM

The Russell 2000 drops to test this morning's gap. No strength yet in the Russell, but we'll watch this test, too.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 10:13:08 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 10:01:41 AM

Jane may have already noted it on the Futures side, but the advdec line drops. TRIN isn't climbing, however, and neither is VIX.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 9:58:57 AM

The OEX now tests the three-minute 21-ema at 573.08. Bulls want to see that support hold, and then a push through the 100/130-ema's, seen on the chart linked to my 9:57 post.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 9:57:50 AM

QQQQ drops below 7200 tick SMA support, stalling the upticking 30 min cycle channel. As long as yesterday's low holds, there's the chance that this is a mere retest to confirm the channel bottom at 37.06. If that level breaks, next support is just below at 36.95, but it will need to hold in order to avoid a rare and very bearish oversold trending move for the 30 min cycle.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 9:57:21 AM

I've decided to dial down to a three-minute chart to watch the 100/130-ema's. Here's why: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 9:52:31 AM

VIX.X 11.86 -1.16% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.20, 11.60, Piv= 11.81, 12.21, 12.42

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 9:50:18 AM

The OEX coils under the five-minute 100/130-ema's. No appreciable fall-off yet in the advdec line to signal a turnaround in progress. The TRIN drops. Still, let's watch what this test tell us, as well as watching the SOX, TRAN, and RUT. The SOX is above its 200-sma and -ema now, and bulls want to see it stay firmly above them. The RUT, however, is not above its 50-dma or the 50% retracement of the decline off the high, so this climb still remains questionable. I want to see both the RUT and the SOX look stronger. The TRAN, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 9:48:41 AM

The Fed has so far added 12B in 14-day repos to replace 10.5B in 6- and 14-day repos for a net 1.5B net add so far. We await the 10AM announcement for the short term repos to be added for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 9:45:25 AM

QQQQ is testing 7200 tick SMA support here at 37.15.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 9:38:13 AM

The TRAN lingers near the bottom of its recent trading range.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 9:36:05 AM

No great strength being shown on the Russell just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 9:35:45 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 9:34:03 AM

The OEX pushes past the five-minute 21-ema, still headed toward the 100/130-ema's.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 9:33:51 AM

Not a boring morning. Crude oil rose 1.71% to close the early AM session at 46.225. Session highs for gold, QQQQ and NQ futures as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 9:32:51 AM

The SOX tests its 200-sma and -ema, with the SOX slightly above the -sma and slightly below the -ema. The SOX is at 421.06. Important test. Bulls do not want to see a rollover here or a failure to sustain a move above these.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 9:32:13 AM

Bonds have recovered part of their earlier losses, as are gold and silver. TNX is currently up 4.4 bps at 4.021%, a 1.11% gain this AM. Gold is up 2.1 at 416.60, off a post-8:30AM low of 413.40.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 9:31:23 AM

The OEX climbs toward the five-minute 21-ema at 572.82. Next are the 100/130-ema's at 574.03 and 574.21.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 9:38:26 AM

Bearish day trade stop alert for Blue Nile (NILE) $28.30

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 9:27:36 AM

Lots of gyrations in the currency markets this morning. Hope that's not indicative of what we'll see on the equities, too.

Market bulls should remain aware that crude is up sharply this morning, higher by $0.77 as I type. Unless equities get a head of steam going, higher crude could weigh against sentiment. Part of that narrowing of the trade balance was due to weaker crude prices.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2005 9:40:18 AM

Pre-market most actives ... ATVI $21.00 -12% Link (insider selling of more than 7 million shares questioned), ERICY $28.99 -7.6% Link (earnings, margin erosion), SHPGY $32.45 -8.9% Link , SIRI $6.04 +0.83% Link ISON $5.28 +14% Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 9:16:27 AM

QQQQ has broken back above the 37.20 confluence and is pressing the 30 min channel resistance higher, currently up to 37.29. If these premarket gains can hold for the first 10 minutes of the cash session, then the 30 min cycle upphase I discussed at yesterday's close will confirm with a 30 min channel upphase. The bullish bias will persist above the 7200 tick SMA, currently at 37.15.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 8:51:16 AM

Early Wednesday morning, the OEX confirmed a H&S on its five-minute chart, oscillated on either side of that confirmation level and the five-minute 100/130-ema's, and then dove almost all the way down to the target predicted by that H&S. There was nothing bull-flag-ish about the drop, setting the tone for the day. By the end of the day, the OEX had printed the tall red candle that those hoping for an evening-star pattern had wanted to see Tuesday. The OEX ended the day just above the midpoint of last Friday's tall white candle, at least holding above that potential support level.

The Russell 2000 and SOX did not hold above important support, however, with the RUT closing the day below the 50-sma and the 50% retracement of the decline off the recent high. The SOX plowed below its 200-sma and 200-ema again, following a months-long pattern of popping above the 200-sma only to drop back again. The TRAN fell away from the 25% envelope surrounding its 200-week sma, an envelope level that usually marks market tops for the TRAN.

There's hope. The RUT and SOX sometimes overshoot targets, so it's possible that scared bulls were just rushing for the exits Wednesday afternoon, but will be ready to venture back Thursday morning. Futures reaction post-trade-balance indicate that they'll try, if that action carries through to the cash open. Also, the TRAN dropped but not below the rectangular consolidation zone it's been building on its daily chart. Bulls need to see the RUT safely and strongly back above its 50-sma, the SOX back above its 200-sma and -ema, and the TRAN moving up and perhaps breaking above the 3630-3640 level that marks resistance.

If the SOX and TRAN and RUT bounce, only to roll over beneath those resistance levels again, though, it might be time to change tactic and sell bounces, at least over the short term. For OEX traders, that will mean looking for bounces to and rollovers from the five-minute 21-ema or 100/130-ema's, currently at 572.83, and 574.06 and 574.23, respectively. If the SOX and TRAN and RUT do bounce and maintain those levels and if internals cooperate, OEX traders will be looking first for a climb above those averages and then bounces from them.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 8:35:06 AM

While QQQQ advances, up .13 to 37.24.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 8:34:35 AM

Yesterday's gains in bonds are being reversed, TNX up 5.2 bps to 4.029%, a 1.31% gain this AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 8:31:09 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 47,000 TO 2.74 MLN

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG INITIAL CLAIMS OFF 16,000 TO 315,500

8:30am U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL TO 4-YEAR LOW

8:30am U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 13,000 TO 303,000

8:30am U.S. DEC TRADE GAP WITH CHINA $14.3 BLN; '04 $162 BLN

8:30am U.S. 2004 TRADE GAP RECORD $617.7 BLN OR 5.3% OF GDP

8:30am U.S. NOV. TRADE GAP REV $59.3 BLN VS $60.3 PREV EST

8:30am U.S. DEC. TRADE GAP NEAR CONSENSUS OF $56.9 BLN

8:30am U.S. DEC. TRADE GAP NARROWS 4.9% TO $56.4 BLN

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 8:09:26 AM

Good news off the wire:

8:08am PFE , MSFT PFIZER, MICROSOFT SUE TO HALT GENERIC VIAGRA SPAMMERS

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2005 7:57:44 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1195, NQ 1513, YM 10689 and QQQQ +.09 at 37.20. Gold is up 50 cents to 415, silver +.015 to 6.602, ten year notes down .1094 to 113 17/64, and crude oil +.625 to 46.075.

We await the 8:30 releases of the Dec. trade balance, est. -57B, initial claims, est. 325K, and at 2PM, the Treasury Budget for January, est. 8.6B.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 7:36:01 AM

The Bank of England left rates unchanged, as expected.

Linda Piazza : 2/10/2005 7:18:31 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei finally closed above 11,500, with a sharp end-of-day rise prompted by the government's raising of its outlook for core machinery orders to "improving." This occurred despite a decline in December's number. The Nikkei will be closed tomorrow, and other Asian markets remained closed overnight for the Lunar New Year. European markets trade cautiously ahead of the Bank of England's rate-hike decision and the U.S. trade balance numbers. Our futures are modestly higher, having slowly climbed all night. As of 6:56 EST, gold was up $0.30, and crude, up $0.83. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

January's Japanese wholesale prices climbed for the 11th month in a row, rising 1.3% above the year-ago levels, below expectations for a 1.7% gain. Companies have not been able to pass increasing costs on to consumers, squeezing profits. The Nikkei tried again for 11,500 in early trading, but soon fell away, with machinery makers declining in early trading ahead of December's machinery orders. A report that Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Daiwa Securities Group might be planning a merger sent brokerages higher, although trading in those two was suspended until 30 minutes after the two companies could confirm or deny the report. Both companies denied the report, but both shot higher on enthusiasm that mergers might be afoot in the sector when they were released for trade, and other brokerages also benefited.

When the machinery orders number was finally released an hour before the close, it prompted a sharp rise in the Nikkei. Core orders fell 8.8% over November's, meeting expectations, but the government upgraded the outlook for machinery orders to "improving" instead of the former "weakening," due to a 6% increase in the quarter and an improving outlook for the current quarter. The Nikkei was to see that close above 11,500 after all, with the last thirty minutes of buying sending the Nikkei to its 11,553.56 close, up 80.21 points or 0.70%.

Other Asian markets remained closed for the Lunar New Year. Tomorrow, the Nikkei will be closed for a holiday. During the overnight session, North Korea announced that it has produced nuclear weapons and that it won't continue talks with five other countries that have been aimed at getting North Korea to stop developing such weapons. It's possible that announcement could worry investors in Asian companies.

Most European markets trade cautiously ahead of the U.S. trade balance, but disappointing earnings reports from Ericsson, France Telecom and DaimlerChrysler also weigh again positive sentiment. Ericsson's gross margins disappointed, France Telecom's fiscal 2004 net income fell below expectations, and DaimlerChrysler's profit missed. In the U.K., trading was also cautious ahead of an interest-rate decision from the Bank of England. No change is expected. A number of other companies in the U.K. and continental Europe either rose or declined due to reactions to their earnings report, with FTSE-100 component ICI jumping after its earnings report and bank Barclays falling after it reported rising costs and falling provisions and noted the possibility of slowing global economic growth in the coming year. Unilever climbed after reporting earnings and a change in executive structure. The rise in crude sent airliners lower.

As of 6:56 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 4 points or 0.08%, to 4,994.40. The CAC 40 had climbed 7.65 points or 0.19%, to 3,977.27. The DAX had climbed 4.99 points or 0.11%, to 4,358.14.

Market Monitor Archives