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OI Technical Staff : 2/11/2005 10:00:00 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 6:56:06 PM

Closing Market Watch at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 5:49:45 PM

Traders might want to take note of that little VIX.X pop to the close. My thoughts are that some NAKED calls sellers showed up in the last 30-minutes of trade. Trying to get 2-days of premium erosion. Perhaps some naked in the money put sellers closing out some profits. Will it pay off at Monday's open? Will take some time later to see if we can sniff out the WRONG SIDE of the trade, maybe take advantage of it early next week.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 4:33:56 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ..... Closed out the swing trade long in the QQQQ at target of $37.50 ($+0.34, or +0.91%) Day traded short shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) at $35.85, but closed out at $35.71 based on Level II action and QQQQ holding $37.71. This week's trade blotter of CLOSED trades at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 4:14:51 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $108.08 , SPY $120.80

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 4:06:45 PM

Cancel bullish order alert for 100 shares of Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.40 -7.75%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 4:02:31 PM

QQQQ is dipping below the 7200 tick SMA here for the first time since 10:30AM. Confirmation of the new 30 min channel downphase (and possibly 60 min as well) will come with a break below 37.60 support. A move above 37.80 will invalidate this short term bearish view however, setting up a test of 38.00 resistance.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:59:05 PM

The OEX is now only 1.25 points above its highest recent weekly close, dipping further. Is it going to hold above 576.06?

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:58:12 PM

TRAN rolling down from the double-top level, but hasn't yet confirmed the double top.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:56:51 PM

Looks as if there's a chance OEX may be held to that highest weekly closing high since March, 2002 if it can close above 576.06 today. It's dipping as I type, but time's running out, too. May be touch and go, but I'd guess we'll see the new weekly closing high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 3:57:10 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.47 -6.49% .. stock has turned an incredible 100.2 million shares. Take that QQQQ! A heavy 102.8 million on a pre-expiration Friday.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 3:56:15 PM

No breadown yet for QQQQ approaching the cash close, drifting through the rising support line on the 100 tick chart by a penny but holding above the 7200 tick SMA.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 3:53:08 PM

The wire and Marketwatch reports show that Bernanke made no comments about domestic monetary policy, speaking instead about Latin America.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:52:36 PM

Remember that chart of the DJUSHB I posted this morning and the cautions I mentioned about assuming that the homebuilders were going to tumble too far? Here's the chart with original annotations, but look at the big lower shadow being left behind as the DJUSHB sprang up: Link When I studied physics in high school and college, I learned that gravity eventually asserts itself. When I traded through 2003, I learned that sometimes it doesn't for a long, long time, way beyond the time that it should have done so.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 3:51:35 PM

Cancel trade order for 500 shares of ALTI Replace with just 100 shares to go long with trade at $4.65.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:44:25 PM

As you're making hold-over-or-not decisions this afternoon, remember that Greenspan speaks next week. That's not until Wednesday, I believe, but it's beginning to be talked about. Europe and Japan see several important economic reports and events earlier in the week.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 3:41:40 PM

QQQQ is challenging trendline support here, with 7200-tick SMA support 2 cents below the 37.73 line.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 3:43:46 PM

Bullish day trade long setup alert ... go long 500 shares of Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.54 -4.82% ... on a trade at $4.65. Stop $4.40, target a run to $4.90 with a closing print of $5.00. On trade POTENTIAL TRADE of $4.90, then sell just 400 shares. Will keep the additional 100 shares back in the MM profiles.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:39:05 PM

Big bearish price/MACD divergence on the TRAN as it tested/tests the intraday double-top level, five-minute chart. These divergences serve as warnings only, as price can continue to climb while these divergences persist. Still, be watchful.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:38:01 PM

Big bearish price/MACD divergence on the TRAN's test of the intraday double-top level, five-minute chart. This serves as a warning only as these divergences can persist a long time while prices climb higher.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:35:14 PM

The OEX has formed a triangle at the top of its range, top at about 578.50, bottom at about 577.94. The downside break would be problematic, as the triangle could just be reforming into a flag. Watch for potential support if a real decline should start at the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 576.62 and 576.22, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 6:23:04 PM

March Crude (cl05h) $47.16 settled up $0.06, or 0.13% at the NYMEX. That's a bullish close above the $46.20-$47.10 zone. March Unleaded (hu05h) $1.2837 settled down $0.011, or 0.86%. Just bearish in a very tight range of trade below $1.288

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 3:29:32 PM

QQQQ's 300 min stochastic is beginning to max out in overbought territory as the 60 min approaches overbought territory. Provided that 38.69, the current 7200 tick SMA, doesn't break as support here, there remains the possibility of a push to 38. But with these key intraday cycles due to run out of racetrack over the next 1-2 market hours, it's looking increasingly unlikely that 38 will be exceeded if it does get hit.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 3:29:25 PM

QQQQ's 300 min stochastic is beginning to max out in overbought territory as the 60 min approaches overbought territory. Provided that 38.69, the current 7200 tick SMA, doesn't break as support here, there remains the possibility of a push to 38. But with these key intraday cycles due to run out of racetrack over the next 1-2 market hours, it's looking increasingly unlikely that 38 will be exceeded if it does get hit.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 3:25:33 PM

Crude oil finished higher by a dime at 47.20: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:23:38 PM

Ouch. Some bears in semi-stock are hurting this afternoon. The five-minute pullback looks as if it could be a bull flag, too, but that perhaps depends in part on how the SOX handles its current test of the five-minute 21-ema, at 435.98. The last four five-minute candles saw the first five-minute closes beneath this average since the SOX broke out this morning. Like some other indices, the SOX is far extended above its five-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 430.37 and 428.93, and looks as if it needs a pullback or sideways consolidation until they catch up. May not happen today, though, with any remaining bears trying to cover each time the SOX dips a little.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 3:20:35 PM

Ten year treasuries wnet out in negative territory, with TNX closed at 4.095%, +2.2 bps for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 3:19:58 PM

52-week high alert ....Swift Transport (SWFT) $23.05 +4.06%

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 3:19:16 PM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX.X 1,206.90, DIA $108.18, QQQQ $37.73, AMZN $35.68

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 3:16:57 PM

Bearish day trade close out alert ... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $35.71 here. Seeing sudden crossing of bid up to the offer with some size.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 3:10:01 PM

Here's a weekly chart that could have bears' knees knocking: Link However, the confirmation hasn't yet come and the OEX deals with a 577-578-ish resistance zone from the monthly chart. The month isn't over yet and neither is this test.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 3:07:24 PM

The rising 7200 tick SMA continues to coincide with the rising linear trendline beneath the rising triangle, currently at 37.69 QQQQ and being tested as I type. 30 min channel support is below at 37.55, 60 min support at 37.49. If 37.69 lets go, the 30 min channel upphase will stall.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 3:10:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link A lot of cash comes out of bonds, and it looks to have stayed here with the dollar flat. 03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 2:59:33 PM

If the OEX should close at or above 576.06, that would be the highest weekly close since March 2002, I believe. I would think there would be some drive to keep it above that level. We'll see if it works.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:52:35 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... let's lower the bearish stop on Amazon.com (AMZN) $35.65 -0.36% .... to breakeven QQQQ $37.75. Updated AMZN at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:58:44 PM

Biggest surprise for me (outside of SOX.X) is 3M (MMM) $84.20 +0.35% having not traded $85.00 today. Still 75-minutes left. Session high of $84.52 found selling at DAILY R2. DIA $108.23.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 2:46:36 PM

I've been looking at some weekly charts. Some look a lot like their charts looked about this time last year. Link Think markets could be setting up for another bull flag decline into the summer lows?

James Brown : 2/11/2005 2:45:11 PM

Dow-component Intel (INTC) is up 2.76% and breaking out over the $24.00 level and its simple and exponential 200-dma's.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:45:05 PM

KMart (KMRT) $102.82 +3.10% ... hmmmm Feb. 100 puts (1,367:2,562) are most active and offset by Feb. $105 calls (961:3,179).

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 2:41:14 PM

QQQQ's upper 30 min channel is up to 37.90, and the 60 min cycle is still rising. Despite the overbought 30 min oscillators, a terminal upward spike from either the 30 or 60 min cycle is certainly possible, if not likely. I doubt that 38.00 resistance will get broken on this set of upphases, particularly given the toppy daily cycle. But another push to 38.00 is looking pretty doable from here.

James Brown : 2/11/2005 2:40:52 PM

Dow-component Caterpillar (CAT) is breaking out over the $93.00 level and its simple 50-dma in the last couple of minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:41:40 PM

AMZN $35.62 .... QQQQ $37.72. AMZN $35.40-47 certainly in play to the close. QQQQ $37.77 is the question. Will traders not want to be short into the weekend? What would be the impact of a change in North Korean government?

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 2:35:35 PM

OEX two-minute 100/130-ema's now at 577.49 and 577.16, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 2:34:09 PM

I haven't heard of any comments from Bernanke and Yellen, and I'm not sure when the Q&A session begins, but remember as we head into the last 90 minutes that some were speculating that there could be market-moving statements out of that Q&A session toward the end of the cash market session.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:34:05 PM

KMart (KMRT) $102.55 +2.83% Link ... starting to grab my bullish interest. Nice little bullish vertical count to $143 has been built.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:31:24 PM

You think the QQQQ can make it to $38.00 Jonathan?

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:30:52 PM

SOX.X 426.45 +3.80% ... MONTHLY R1? You gott'a be kidding me.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 2:29:59 PM

The RLX has charged up right into that big gap from January. It's been a big gainer today, but it hasn't closed that gap. Last week, when I couldn't sleep and listened to CNBC Europe most of one night, U.S. retailers were a major topic of discussion. The gist was that some big retailers were going to be reporting this week and next, the caboose to the earnings-season train, and that there was some fear the retailers wouldn't deliver. WMT would be one of the last. That leaves the RLX in a vulnerable spot headed into WMT's report. I see that WMT reports next Thursday, but didn't find mention of many other retailers, so perhaps most retailers have reported by the end of this week.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:22:58 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.78 +0.20% ... edges back green

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 2:19:23 PM

The 30 min cycle downphase has sputtered several times today and yesterday, but the oscillators are now in overbought territory. I'm surprised to see this much resilience after yesterday's chop, but the fact remains tha the Tuesday high has yet to be broken. On that basis, the conditions for a daily cycle top are still present, provided that 38 QQQQ doesn't get broken by more than 10 or 20 cents or so.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:18:58 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.62 -3.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:17:59 PM

Isn't this the volatility/gyrations everyone's been waiting for Linda?

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 2:10:28 PM

TRAN falling again. I'm getting dizzy.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 2:09:13 PM

An elongated H&S on the OEX's two-minute chart would be confirmed on a fall beneath the 100/130-ema's on that chart, at 577.35 and 576.98. Of course, that confirmation would also just about meet its downside target.

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart gives a grimmer picture for bulls. That tentative 15-minute support does not appear to be holding and support lines thin out underneath, as I mentioned earlier. Unless the OEX can pull itself up quickly and close the current 15-minute period above that support near 577.80-578, it's vulnerable to more of a pullback. It's difficult to tell which line might hold it because they're so scattered. The OEX is trying to pull itself back up during this 15-minute period, so we'll watch.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:05:02 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $35.60 -0.50% ... pulls on the QQQQ a bit at $37.72

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:12:49 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 2:01:25 PM

QQQQ is up against upper 30 min channel resistance here, currently rising to 37.90. Note that price has held above 7200 tick SMA support since 10:30AM, currently up to rising triangle support at 37.65.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 2:00:38 PM

Hold in there AMZN $35.68 -0.30% .... QQQQ $37.77

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 1:58:06 PM

TRAN also again approaches its day's high after rejecting 3000. This one moves around a bit, doesn't it? The TRAN always surprises me because I expect it to be a stodgy old slow-moving index.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 1:57:09 PM

Russell 2000 now joyously joining the party, at its day's high, approaching this week's resistance.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 1:50:36 PM

Suspended animation. The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows support gathering near 577.80, with that support looking minimally stronger than next overhead resistance. That's iffy, though, and subject to change if the resistance is allowed to firm. If that support should fail, however, support thins afterwards, with only single support lines and not converging zones.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 1:49:51 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.19 -12.15% Link ... would be looking new bullish entries just under $4.00. DAILY Pivot is $3.83.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 1:45:48 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert for Amazon.com (AMZN) $35.69 -0.25% ... to $35.90. QQQQ $37.75 ... stronger than I would have thought today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 1:44:44 PM

If this is a rising intraday triangle, then the bears will be in for more pain on a break above 37.77 QQQQ: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 1:39:32 PM

Crude oil has returned to unchagned here at 47.10, off a high of 47.55 and .37 from the low.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 1:38:41 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

James Brown : 2/11/2005 1:38:33 PM

Dow-component Home Depot (HD) is breaking out through its three-month trendline of lower highs near the $42.50-43.00 level. The bullish P&F chart points to a $61 target.

James Brown : 2/11/2005 1:36:45 PM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) is a semiconductor stock breaking out over major round-number resistance at the $50.00 level.

The rally is also pushing KLAC through P&F resistance.

James Brown : 2/11/2005 1:35:06 PM

I'm seeing a number of bullish breakouts today.

Total Sa (TOT), an overseas oil company, is breaking out through the top of its trend of lower highs. The P&F chart points to a $141 target.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 1:36:57 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $35.66 -0.33% ... day trader's chart at this Link Making some ties to QQQQ observations.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 2:09:47 PM

I was looking at the TRIN, seeing if its current sub-50 level could be considered a contrarian sign. I don't see strong correlation right now. Although sub-50 levels tended to occur nearer short-term tops than not, it often preceded them by a day or two. Jane or Jonathan might have a better take on this.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 1:26:44 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,206.89, DIA $108.14, QQQQ $37.69, AMZN $35.66

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 1:20:44 PM

The SOX holds up, and the Russell 2000 does, too, although it's extending in a flat triangle. The TRAN eases closer to the 3600 test.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 1:19:03 PM

The OEX coils on the two-minute chart, but it's coiling beneath the two-minute 21-ema. Difficult to tell which way it would break, but a pullback to the 100/130-ema's at 576.87 and 576.45 would not be unexpected, or particularly bearish, if the pullback stops there. The formation that had looked like a bull flag looks less so now, because it's pattern isn't tight with respect to the climb that preceded it and it's extending so long, time wise. Those 100/130-ema's are rising rapidly to meet it, though, and so the OEX might soon test those averages as it trades sideways and they rise.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 1:09:32 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,206.60, DIA $108.10, QQQQ $37.66, AMZN $35.70

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 1:07:30 PM

QQQQ is retreating again within the rectangle that has formed between 37.57 and 37.77. The 7200 tick SMA has made it to 37.60, and the 30 min channel has already stalled. Below 37.57, there's relative clear air to 1st resistance at 37.45, with stronger support at 37.33.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 1:06:33 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,205.55, DIA $108.02, QQQQ $37.64, AMZN $35.70

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 1:06:17 PM

As it often does, the TRAN acts first. It's falling to test the 3600 level, at 3605.42 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 1:04:04 PM

Session low for ten year treasury futures here at 112 21/32, -.15% while TNX is up .8 bps at 4.081%, +.2% for the day. Looks like the yields and front month futures are getting back in sync after this morning's divergences.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 1:03:40 PM

The OEX's two-minute 100/130-ema's have risen now to 576.72 and 576.29, respectively. The OEX is threatening to fall below the flattening 21-ema, currently at 578.23.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 1:16:05 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:59:16 PM

That was a "billed out" traded of 44,000 at $35.50 for AMZN

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 12:55:30 PM

The OEX has so far come within three cents of its 579.11 high from 1/03. It's above a long, long-term horizontal trendline I've had on my charts, carried over from monthly charts, that's in the 577.80-ish region, although I consider that more a zone near that number than a specific number. There were a number of monthly closes near 577-579 several years ago. Back in January, the OEX kept punching through that horizontal line, or up into the zone, but always closed below it. Will it repeat that pattern today or manage a close above that zone?

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:56:08 PM

Bearish day trade short alert for Amazon.com (AMZN) $35.85 here, stop $36.05, target $35.20. Benchmark the QQQQ $37.68

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 12:53:43 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 12:45:38 PM

The OEX's 15-minute candles are showing some upper shadows. That's not always a sign that the OEX will retreat, but it often is. The retreat doesn't have to be a big one.

Tab Gilles : 2/11/2005 12:43:53 PM

Looking at the longterm weekly chart of $DJUSPM I presneted 2/7 10:54AM. Link Link

Tab Gilles : 2/11/2005 12:36:46 PM

$SOX Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:40:58 PM

North Korea ... CNBC reported that there were RUMORS earlier this morning that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il had been overthrown. White House said it had heard of nothing to substantiate that talk.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 12:29:53 PM

OEX breakout above the flag-like formation on its two-minute chart, but the OEX hasn't confirmed by printing a new HOD. It's headed back down to retest the two-minute 21-ema at 578.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 12:28:53 PM

A sharp rise is printing for QQQQ on the move above 37.62. A break of the session highs here would suggest that the decline for the past hour is a bull flag. Resistance at the 200% fib retracement is at 37.76, followed by confluence and 30 min channel resistance at 37.80. Support at the previous low is at 37.57, with 30 min channel support below at 37.45.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:25:57 PM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 442.07 +1.14% ... making a bullish move here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:24:15 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,207.15, DIA $108.19, QQQQ $37.64

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 12:22:30 PM

Here's the OEX's two-minute 21/100/130-ema's: Link

Tab Gilles : 2/11/2005 12:20:39 PM

I'll have to research that Jonathan...thanks.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 12:14:45 PM

RUT coming back to test the 50-sma and 50% retracement of the decline off the late December high.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 12:12:48 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 12:12:18 PM

Tab, with respect to your 12:05, I once read a very convincing argument asserting that the legendary silver shorts that many silverbugs claim as proof for the manipulation of the silver markets are actually central banks. While western central banks are and have always been gold-centric, China in particular is reputed to have massive reserves of silver. The argument I read suggested that these "paper shorts" would actually be China hedging or lightening part of its massive position. I don't have a copy of this long paper, but if it's ringing bells for anyone here, please let me know.

Tab Gilles : 2/11/2005 12:08:01 PM

MURPHY OIL (MUR) continues to rise with $WTIC. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:07:14 PM

eBay (EBAY) alert $82.00 +0.96% Link ... trade at $82.00 gets stock back on a buy signal. Bullish vertical count column now under construction and hints at $93.

Tab Gilles : 2/11/2005 12:05:40 PM

$GOX Gold continues to rise, but take a look at the silver market...playing catchup? Maybe, a technical break to the upside in silver, because traders don't see the central bank selling in the silver market?

$SILVER Link $GOX Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:03:49 PM

Buy Program Premium SPX.X 1,206.25, DIA $108.18, QQQQ $37.63

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:14:32 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 12:00:32 PM

8 buy program premiums had been generated since that first one at 10:35-10:40 AM

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:57:47 AM

I'm dialing down to a two-minute chart to watch the OEX's performance with relationship to 21/100/130-ema's. This is because when the OEX trends strongly, it often bounces off the one-, two- or three-minute 21-ema rather than the five-minute one. The two-minute 21-ema is now at 577.49, with the OEX bouncing from it now. Even on the two-minute chart, however, the OEX looks far extended above its 100/130-ema's and may need a pullback. They're at 575.33 and 575.03.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:57:30 AM

QQQQ $37.62 +1.26% .... holding above that $37.57. I've got session high as $37.72. Bad tick at $37.92 though.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 11:54:58 AM

QQQQ drops below 37.60 here as TNX declines to unchanged at 4.073%, with ten year notes catching a small bid.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:53:00 AM

May be short-term, perhaps just a testing of support, but the USD is strengthening against some currencies again. We've had that bifurcated USD/equities trading pattern today that Jonathan sometimes mentioned.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:52:27 AM

Looking for a 4-lettered day trade short

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:50:16 AM

There has been Keltner-style bearish divergence as the OEX climbed.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:49:25 AM

SBC Communications (SBC) $24.28 +0.74% ... after trading a session low of $23.95, did come withing a frog's hair of bearish swing trader's stop of $24.45 with a trade at $24.37. Trending lower 21-day SMA ($24.36) provides some resistance. DIA $108.17 +0.62%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 11:44:50 AM

37.60-.62 QQQQ has just been tested and held for the first probe.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:41:53 AM

This move higher in equities was accompanied by a sudden weakening in the dollar. Currency markets usually get news before we do, but I'm not able to find anything in the news I check to explain the sudden move.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:39:59 AM

TRAN sneaking above the 30-sma, RUT above 50-sma, and SOX ... well, all that's stopped the SOX so far is the 19.1% retracement of the rally off the September low. The TRAN and RUT need to hold their current levels of course. The SOX has some room to retreat and still look bullish.

The OEX . . . well, the OEX has traveled so far away from its five-minute 21/100/130-ema's that it looks due for a pullback to those averages. Dangerous territory now for short-term bulls. Protect profits and congratulations if you saw this coming. I thought declines might be muted, but I didn't see this until the SOX began moving up.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:45:36 AM

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) $48.66 +4.55% Link .... upgraded to "buy" at Sun Trust Ruby Tuesday (RI) $24.51 +0.86% Link is a name/technicals I'm warming up to. 1/2 bullish positions in here, would actually like to see the stock trade $24, then ramp back with a buy signal at $28 to round to full. Trying to talk my accountant into letting me write off dinners at RI as a "research expense" for investment. She's not willing to sign off on that.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 11:38:31 AM

Today's QQQQ high stopped just below the 200% retracement of yesterday's range: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 11:33:14 AM

Strong trending move in progress for QQQQ. Next resistance above 37.60-.62 is at 37.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:31:12 AM

Get the feel some shorts are on the run? Bounce seemed to start just as Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.75 +0.96% traded that 52-week low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:28:54 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.00 +0.45% ... watch out here! DIA most actives ... Feb. $108 C (1,020:6,648), Mar $107 C (626:12,128), Jun $104 C (160:1,539) Exactly what I was "cautious" about yesterday. Looking $108.74-$108.96 here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:24:58 AM

QQQQ $37.57 ... hmmmmm

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 11:24:53 AM

QQQQ printed a high of 37.62 and is down to 37.59. The bulk of this squeeze has coincided with overbought and trending short cycle oscillators, and the 30 min cycle oscillators are finally approaching overbought territory. First support is at 37.45.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:24:49 AM

The TRAN has climbed toward the top of its recent consolidation range, currently testing the 30-dma. This average has been important for the TRAN, roughly following its rising regression channel all through 2004's climb. This week's testing of that average is the first since the TRAN fell through it in early January. The 30-dma is the black MA in the chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:24:34 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 432.62 +2.87% ... gets a trade at WEEKLY R2!

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:21:38 AM

SOX still charging higher; RUT still testing the 50-dma.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:22:01 AM

Look at 'em sell those bonds. Did you call your mortgage broker? 30-year up just 1.2 bp now at 4.476%. Cruve is flat on the day.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:17:59 AM

RUT at the 50-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 11:17:07 AM

Session high for gold at 422.60, euro and CAD futures here.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:16:46 AM

The OEX now faces 60-minute Keltner resistance, up to 577.12. That resistance now turns higher, but it could be enough to at least slow the OEX if not turn it back. Bulls do not want to see indices quickly slapped back now as they approach this week's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:18:43 AM

Russell 2000 Growth iShare (IWO) $65.06 +0.86% ... back above that $64.78-$65.00 "zone." Support at $63.87 never tested on recent decline.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 11:12:54 AM

37.33-.40 QQQQ is now support. The 7200 tick SMA has turned up and is currently at 37.15. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:12:19 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 369.64 +0.18% ... bidding green

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:12:35 AM

Move past the double-top level on the OEX's intraday chart. OEX 577.12 is a possibility now, according to the Keltner chart. Watch the SPX and RUT tests, though, because this climb could fall apart as quickly as the decline did.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/11/2005 11:11:25 AM

Well done Jeff.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 11:11:10 AM

Back to find QQQQ chopping away at the rising 30 minute candle trendline that broke on yesterday's decline. That rising line is being tested now, and will be broken if bulls can hold the price above 37.45. 37.40 had been significant confluence support and resistance during recent weeks. The current rise is pulling the 60 min channel back up, finally, as the 30 min begins to advance vertically. Next resistance is at 37.60.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:11:41 AM

Swing trade bullish target/exit alert ... for the QQQQ $37.50 +0.94% Might get some squeeze action to $37.71, but would follow any further bullish with a rather tight stop.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 11:10:52 AM

And there's the five-minute close above this morning's gap, with the OEX now testing the double-top level. The RUT has climbed above yesterday's high and now charges up toward the 50-sma and 50% retracement of the decline off the late December high, both near 530. The RUT is at 628.65. Bulls need confirmation from the RUT. The SPX still just tests 1200, and hasn't approached the trendline at about 1207 that held it back this week. Bulls need confirmation here, too.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 11:10:32 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 11:01:51 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:59:46 AM

The OEX is trying to punch back into the ascending regression channel that it began forming in the climb off Wednesday's low. It hasn't been entirely successful yet, still dealing with 574-ish resistance, but it has been successful in climbing above the five-minute 100/130-ema's, now just below it. That's another danger sign for bears. This could be just a bounce from support up to test this morning's gap, but bears definitely don't want to see the OEX above the top of that gap. They want to see it roll back down below 574.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 10:49:39 AM

The 30 min channel has turned up here, but the 60 min has yet to do so. 37.40 is going to be stiff resistance for QQQQ, and the fact remains that both the 30 min and daily cycle oscillators are near relative tops, not bottoms. The going should get tough to the upside from here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 10:45:52 AM

QQQQ updated trendlines at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:42:57 AM

I think the SOX climb should be watched and offers a warning, but I, too, agree that the SOX can't do it alone, and needs the cooperation of the Russell 2000 at the very least, with the Russell 2000 not yet showing great strength. I also think the TRAN needs to confirm strength. Either the SOX is going to pull everything up or everything else is going to pull the SOX down.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 10:43:04 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 426.68 +1.46% ... busted a move back above 425 and WEEKLY R1 of 425.24. February "Max Pain" theory down at 410 (5-point increments)

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 10:39:27 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,196.79, QQQQ $37.25, DIA $107.38.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:37:19 AM

Careful, bears. SOX is shooting up toward this week's highs.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:36:41 AM

OEX 574-ish resistance still holding. Tentative, but holding.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:34:14 AM

OEX 574 holding so far.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 10:31:35 AM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $5.08 +6.70% ... looks like the MARKET is trading the fitted 38.2% (PINK) retracement doesn't it? Session high has been $6.52.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:29:58 AM

That is not a bear flag climb and not what OEX bears want to see. They do want to see that 573.80-574 next Keltner resistance hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 10:28:51 AM

QQQQ has cleared the 7200 tick SMA, stalling the 30 min channel downphase and running here to the upper descending channel resistance at 37.20. This is also confluence resistance. If the bulls can clear it, next stop is in the 37.35-.40 area of the rising trendline that was broken yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:27:07 AM

The OEX shows tentative signs of trying to form a flag and rise off the LOD. Tentative so far. Bears would like to see it rollover again beneath 573.55-574. Be careful here, as plenty of buy-the-dip sentiment survives and could send the OEX more sharply higher than bears want.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:24:54 AM

The Russell 2000 has slid down along the 30-sma. It's below the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the late December high. It's definitely not confirming any bullish hopes and doing a good job so far of confirming bearish ones. It's near potential historical horizontal support, so if it does bounce soon, bears of any type want to see a tepid, measured-distribution type bounce.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:22:46 AM

The OEX sinks closer to potential 572 support. Make that 572-572.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 10:21:20 AM

QQQQ bounced sharply off the low and is testing declining 7200 tick SMA resistance here at 37.08. The 30 min channel downphase is not yet stalling on the return to the SMA line.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 10:20:47 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 10:11:24 AM

New lows for QQQQ here at 36.92, with the 30 min channel support dropping to 36.82. Support is now being tested to yesterday's low within the declining 30 min cycle channel, with 7200 tick SMA resistance down to 37.07.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 10:11:31 AM

52-week low alert for Cisco Systems (CSCO) 17.38 -1.08% EXTR $6.03 -1.30% , GLW $11.65 -0.93%

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:12:02 AM

It was Smith Barney that downgraded U.S. homebuilders to hold, the first downgrade of homebuilders in three years, a Smith Barney analyst noted. He cut the rating for Beazer, Toll Brothers, Hovnanian, KB Home, Pulte and Ryland. Here are some observations on the DJUSHB's daily chart, however: Link I haven't looked at charts of the six individual stocks listed above. Those stocks might be showing more weakness or more obvious technical signs that the climb is over. I think the climb should be over. So does most everyone else, but so did they in early January when the DJUSHB plummeted toward bottom support.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 10:07:56 AM



Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 10:06:29 AM

Crude oil is lower, down .225 to 46.875 as gold prints a session high at 421.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 10:06:00 AM

Sell Program Premium SPX.X 1,193.98, QQQQ $36.96, DIA $107.20

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 10:05:20 AM

VIX.X 11.64 +1.12% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 11.02, 11.24, Piv= 11.61, 11.83, 12.20

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 10:02:38 AM

Here's the OEX chart I posted late yesterday and early this morning (original annotations): Link The OEX has obviously broken down below the channel--bear flag? What isn't as obvious is whether the OEX will see much downside as a result. Technical analysis suggests it should. Recent experience suggests the downside objectives might be difficult to achieve. Bears want to see that drop beneath 571.94, perhaps after a retest of the broken support.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 10:14:56 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 10:00:44 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:58:41 AM

I'm reading that a major analyst firm has put the home-building sector on hold, citing valuations, but I'm not sure yet which firm that might be.

Jonathan may have mentioned this already, but both Bernanke and Yellen will be speaking this afternoon, at a conference at Stanford, if my memory serves me correctly. I believe that there will be a Q&A session, too, so there's opportunity for Fedspeak to impact late-day trading.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 9:57:12 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced that it's taking no action today, with no expiries. The Fed's dealers are on their own for a change.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:55:23 AM

Here's what the OEX's five-minute Keltner chart shows. Support is near 572.98, with the OEX trying over the last two five-minute bars to bounce from that support. Resistance looks firm toward 573.83-574.34.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 9:53:47 AM

QQQQ opening 5-minute bar for 5-MRT was $37.09-$37.02. This would have Red #3 matching today's DAILY R1 at $36.91.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:53:24 AM

SOX below both 200-sma and -ema, but above an important Fib level just above 418.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:52:09 AM

The TRAN has a continuation-form H&S on its five-minute chart, rising neckline at about 3567, with the TRAN currently at 3574.10. The TRAN is fighting hard not to confirm that H&S. The right shoulder level is approximately at the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 3574.26 and 3575.84, respectively, so bulls want to see five-minute closes above those averages as a start. Bears want the opposite.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 9:51:50 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 850.05 -4.14% ... notably weak early.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 9:51:09 AM

30 min channel support declines to 36.88 QQQQ here.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:47:42 AM

That double-bottom level near OEX 572 or slightly below might be strong support for the OEX. Unless there's a strong downward thrust, I think a bounce attempt might be expected there, at the least. Checking other charts, I see that the 60-minute 21-ema is at 574, and this morning's gap lower was also a gap beneath that average, so that reinforces the perception that bears want the OEX to round down at or below 574 on any bounce. The 60-minute 100/130-ema's are at 569.88 and 569.20, so bears should know ahead of time how they'll handle a test of that zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 9:45:10 AM

Having added no overnight repos yesterday and with no other timeframes maturing today, the Fed's Open Market Desk has no money coming due from its primary dealers. Any repos announced at 10AM will be net additions to its dealers' reserves, available to the markets. Awaiting the 10AM announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 9:45:02 AM

yield curve steepening early 5-year up 0.5 bp at 3.651%, 10-year up 1.8 bp at 4.091% and 30-year up 4.3 bp at 4.508%

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 9:43:35 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 368.41 -0.15% ... not a lot of help for bulls in the early going.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:41:46 AM

For those who might be using the downturn from the five-minute 100/130-ema's as benchmarks, the OEX now tests the bottom support of its (bear flag?) rising regression channel. You want to see a confirming fall through that channel's support and then a confirming drop below the 50% retracement of the rally off the February 3 low, with that 50% level at just under 572. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce soon, however, from the current 573.41 level down to 573.25 or so. Bears want to see a rollover again beneath 574.60 or so, if there is a bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 9:41:18 AM

QQQQ is testing 37.00 support here after failing on its bounce attempt to 37.10. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 37.15, while 30 min channel support is down to 36.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 9:39:43 AM

Gold has pulled back to 420.30, up 1.60 here with HUI +.64% at 205.31 and XAU +.33% at 93.46. Crude oil closed the early morning session -.15 at 46.95.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:39:29 AM

Advdec line drops.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:39:10 AM

This gap test may tell bulls and bears much. Here's what's going on with relationship to the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's: Link Oops. What gap test? The OEX turns lower from the five-minute 100/130-ema's as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:36:24 AM

The Russell 2000 opens and turns slightly lower, so far still above the 624-ish 38.2% retracement of the decline off the December high and still above the sinking-lower 30-sma. No clarity from this index yet.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:35:10 AM

SOX opens at its 200-sma again, still not sure if it wants to climb above the converging 200-sma and -ema or roll down beneath them.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 9:32:39 AM

QQQQ drops to a fresh low of 37.03. The 30 min channel is rolling over and should remain bearish below 37.16, the current level of the 7200 tick SMA.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 9:32:25 AM

Gap lower on the OEX. It's not out of the rising regression channel I showed earlier, but did gap down just below the three-minute 100/130-ema's, both near 574. It's testing them now from the underside.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 9:28:56 AM

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) chart I put together yesterday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2005 9:22:46 AM

Pre-market most actives .... ALTI $5.74 +20%, DELL $39.87 -4.1%, AAPL $79.83 +1.8%, VECO $17.07 -9.4%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 9:22:04 AM

Session high for March silver, up another 3.34% to 7.20, also a high for gold at 421.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 9:17:39 AM

Yesterday's failure below rising support on the 30 min QQQQ chart likely signaled the first serious break in the daily cycle upphase: Link While the 30 min oscillators are still pointed north, it will take a break north of the 37.37-.40 resistance, just above yesterday's high, to avoid what appears to be an inevitable rollover. Link Any weakness below 37.00 will need to break 36.87-.90 to confirm a new 30 min cycle downphase.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 9:13:16 AM

Front month crude oil is down .15 to 46.95 here, ten year treasury futures going positive while the yield holds positive as well, +1 bp at 4.083%.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 8:51:17 AM

Here's where the OEX ended the day yesterday: Link Obviously, those with bearish hopes want to see the OEX break down out of that rising regression channel and then fall below the 50% retracement level of that rally off the early February low. They also want corroboration from the SOX, TRAN, and RUT. That would include a SOX rollover down below the 50-dma, confirming the breakdown below the 200-sma and -ema. It would include a continued downturn in the TRAN, pushing it toward 3500-3524. They want a RUT downturn or a rollover from below the 50-dma and 50% retracement of the decline off the year's high.

Special attention should be paid to the SPX, too, as it again approached 1200 yesterday. Bears want to see it roll down below 1200-1206.75 (location of a steep ascending trendline that has been stopping the SPX's advances).

Bulls want to see the opposite: a SOX push up through its 200-sma and -ema, a TRAN move higher, a RUT push up through its 50-dma and an SPX push through 1200 and eventually through 1206.75, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 8:41:51 AM

Ten year treasury futures have recovered to unchanged at 112 53/64, while TNX is up .8 bps at 4.081%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 8:35:04 AM

NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks were net sellers of U.S. Treasuries for the third week in a row in the latest week, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday. The amounts sold so far have been minor compared with their massive holdings, but could still heighten recent concerns that foreign central banks were losing their appetite for buying ever more U.S. debt. The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency debt kept for overseas central banks fell by $4.98 billion in the week ending Feb. 9, to stand at $1.339 trillion.


Jonathan Levinson : 2/11/2005 7:43:16 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1197.5, NQ 1509.5, YM 10747 and QQQQ -.03 at 37.12. Gold is up .80 at 419.5, silver +.093 at 7.06 and ten year notes -.078 at 112 3/4. Crude oil is up .125 at 47.225.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

Linda Piazza : 2/11/2005 7:11:18 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei was closed last night, as were most other Asian markets except for South Korea's and Singapore's. European markets post gains this morning, with the FTSE 100 holding onto yesterday's closing high of 5,000. Our futures are mostly higher. As of 7:01 EST, gold was down $0.20, and crude, up $0.07. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei was closed last night, as were most other Asian bourses. South Korea and Singapore traded, with South Korea's Kospi closing down 1.96 points or 0.21% and Singapore's Straits Times closing up by 9.44 points or 0.44%. Tensions rise in the region as North Korea first declared itself a nuclear power and then demanded bilateral talks with the U.S., but some felt that North Korea only confirms what was already known.

Most European markets turn in positive performances this morning. Many had thought that the French GDP number released today would be the most important economic release in Europe, and that number showed an above-consensus rise. Strong end-of-year results from manufacturers was cited as a reason for the above-consensus rise. Much attention had focused on the FTSE 100, too, closing right at 5,000 Thursday, with many wondering if that number would be held today and finding encouragement when it has been. Miners have helped the FTSE 100 hold those gains. Germany had less reason to cheer, with an International Monetary Fund's spokesperson stating in an interview that German growth might slow from 1.7 to 1.5% this year.

Techs gained after earnings from Dell that European watchers deemed better-than-expected. A Germany biotech IPO performs well, but only after the offering price was cut to the low end of the projected range. This IPO has been closely watched because of the troubled state of the German and European biotechs, and its performance has generated some hope for that sector. In stock-specific news, hotels group Accor gained after news that it was renegotiating the terms of lease contracts, talking with institutional investors, and that it had received an upgrade to a neutral rating by Credit Suisse First Boston. That firm felt that the renegotiations might help the company take advantage of the current low interest rate environment. French dairy group Danone rose after beating estimates, not including a charge.

As of 6:45 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 20.00 points or 0.40%, to trade at 5,020.00. The CAC 40 had gained 22.87 points or 0.58%, to trade at 3,993.24. The DAX had gained 24.86 points or 0.57%, to trade at 4,366.87.

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