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Tab Gilles : 2/15/2005 12:33:34 AM

$GOLD from yesterday's close; Bid/$423.60 ; Ask/$424.10 -2.20 -0.52%

$USD down $0.05 to $83.95. Let's see what effect Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's congressional testimony will have on the markets. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 10:14:38 PM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $1.77 and set for program selling at $-0.26.

OI Technical Staff : 2/14/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 6:22:09 PM

3M (MMM) $84.61 +0.67% Link ... higher in after-hours trade at $84.92 after company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share, a 16.7% increase over the quarterly dividend paid in 2004. Dividend is payable on March 12 to shareholders of record as of Feb. 25.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 5:42:53 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 4:27:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... stopped out of the bearish swing trade short in shares of SBC Communications (SBC) at $24.45. ($-0.14, or -0.58%) Swing trade long/bullish an additional 200 shares of Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) at $4.87. Raised stops to $2.60, targeting $14.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 4:09:05 PM

All-time closing high for the NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 7,280.37 +0.25% (see chart 12:36:22)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 4:05:52 PM

QQQQ and NQ are looking like the big winners today, QQQQ up .58% here at 37.92. The 30 min cycle is no longer overbought, and it looks like bulls are not yet done with the 38.00 resistance level.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 4:00:05 PM

Tomorrow is another day. This market stagnation has to end, and maybe tomorrow will be the day.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 3:54:05 PM

In my 12:59 post, I linked a chart that showed a long-term horizontal red trendline representing a zone on the monthly chart that I've carried over for years. Today, the OEX is so far printing a doji just under that line, so that I continue to believe it has some significance. In late December and January, it tested this line/zone but could not close above it and now it tests it again, but so far again hasn't closed above it. The OEX hasn't broken out yet, but neither has it even begun to round down into a double-top formation. We have to wait another day to see which it's going to be.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 3:56:33 PM

March Crude (cl05h) ... settled up $0.28, or 0.59% at $47.44. March Unleaded (Hu05h) ... settled down $0.006, or -0.44% at $1.2780.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 3:48:31 PM

That TRAN envelope that's 25% either side of the 200-week MA is now at 3647.59. Other than late last year, the TRAN has not closed outside that upper envelope line in the seven and a half years that Q-Charts has data for the TRAN. In the spring of 1998, it was testing that line, climbing its underside, but didn't close above it, with that touch preceding a steep fall into the early fall of that year. In May of 1999, the TRAN was to approach that upper envelope line for the last time before falling to its bear-market low. The TRAN trades in congruence with the lower 25% envelope, too, but did close below it September, 2001. Perhaps the TRAN is going to keep rising as the upper envelope line does, but this test of that upper envelope line shows it to be overbought by this measure.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 3:45:00 PM

eBay (EBAY) $84.11 +2.49% ... trade at $84 has bullish vertical count growing to $99. Here's PnF chart with bullish channel technique at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 3:38:34 PM

I was half-hoping that my stepping away might provided the needed directional push to break the current gridlock, but no such luck. QQQQ is still well within the moiddle of the range, but if it can clear 37.9, the short cycle will likely turn up for a renewed charge against the session highs and the 38.00 level. The 30 and 60 min channels continue to line up at 38 resistance, support slightly higher to 37.65-.69.

While I remain bearish on a daily cycle basis below 38.00, today's lack of decline is clearly a bullish victory on the intraday cycles. All intraday cycles were overbought and the short cycles were already declining on Friday's close. Despite that, QQQQ has spent the entire day in the green. If they can't run em down, the next 30 min cycle upphase could be a doozy.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 3:31:06 PM

Just below OEX 578 is the descending trendline off Friday's high. Bulls want to see that broken. As a reminder, bulls want to know in advance how they'll handle a test of 581-582.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2005 3:28:39 PM

Jeff, it will be interesting to see what EBAY does with that big gap and the 200 DMA smack dab in the middle.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 3:26:38 PM

The SOX is sort of moving up, as Keltner channels suggested it would, but I wouldn't call this a bounce. It's creeping up so slowly that Keltner resistance is gathering overhead near that 436.70.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 3:26:16 PM

eBay (EBAY) $83.90 +2.25% ... challenging its trending lower 21-day SMA ($84.00). Feb. $85 Calls (XBA-BQ) $0.80 are most active at 8,546 with open interest of 32,325. Feb. $80 C $4.10(7,384:22,625) and Feb. $80 Puts $0.20(4,262:15,365) also seeing some action.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2005 3:23:34 PM

That's it? Ths is like watching the life of the silkworm and its habitat on PBS.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2005 3:20:43 PM

SOX is green.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 3:14:33 PM

Stepping away for 20 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 3:12:06 PM

If the OEX keeps trading sideways, it's going to eventually hit the bottom of that rising regression channel, rising off the January 24 low. One version of that channel crosses now at about 575.40.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2005 3:09:27 PM

Keep an eye on INTC.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 3:04:15 PM

43.7M QQQQ shares so far. This feels like a holiday session.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2005 3:04:17 PM

LU, a stock I accumulate on dips, is showing nice potential, closing the January gap. This is no Nortel and a real company that has buyout potential.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 3:08:45 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 2:58:30 PM

Ten year treasuries are holding their gains heading into the cash close, with TNX -2.3 bps at 4.072%.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 2:54:51 PM

No change anywhere yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 2:45:01 PM

The light volume and tight range isn't surprising given how busy the newsweek's going to get. And, Greenspan will be testifying Wednesday and Friday. Looks like someone pulled the plug on the trading 'bots.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 2:44:16 PM

SOX coming down to test that gathering support. See my 2:31 post for information, but those supporting lines have softened a little.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 2:41:46 PM

In the kind of bifurcated market we've had lately, a TRAN bounce doesn't look nearly as likely as a SOX one did on a Keltner chart basis. By the way, the SOX hasn't bounced yet, despite what the Keltner chart suggested might happen. Support still looks firmer than nearby resistance, however. (See my 2:31 post.)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 2:37:39 PM

QQQQ's just rounded the 40M share mark, less than halfway to its average daily volume with a little more than an hour and a half to go. This is one the lightest volume days I've seen in a long time. It's not just for QQQQ- the NYSE has yet to hit the 1B mark, and the futures contracts look very thin today as well.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 2:36:17 PM

MSFT $25.99 +0.07%, CSCO $17.89 +1.07% and INTC $24.15 -0.08% are the top 3 most active, but session is very very quiet.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 2:31:32 PM

The SOX's three- and five-minute Keltner charts look as if it's primed for another push higher, but perhaps not until it's dropped down a little to retest support and drive those Keltner lines closer together, firming up the support. That support is down to 433 or so but begins at 434.75. If the SOX should be driven down by a sell program, that lineup could change, but that's what it shows now.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 2:22:27 PM

Nothing moving in the OEX. It's marching straight across the chart. MACD has flat-lined on the 15-minute down through to the three-minute.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 2:11:32 PM

QQQQ has lost the 7200 tick SMA line again, with the 30 min channel bottom close below at 37.68. Until 37.60 is broken, however, I see no reason to expect anything other than the low volume slop that QQQQ's been printing since noon on Friday.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 2:11:31 PM

The TRAN was not successful in creating a higher low. It's just now off its new LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 2:04:01 PM

Another whipsaw for crude oil, this time to the upside with March crude now +.85% at 47.55.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 2:09:41 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 2:00:28 PM

The OEX still hasn't been able to close 15-minute periods above the Keltner line that's now at 576.68, despite many tries. It's squeezed so tightly now between that resistance and next Keltner support at 576.54 (on closes) that it's got to break through one or the other or just print doji in a straight line. On an upside breakout, a test of 578.24 looks possible. On a downside one, a test of 574.84-575.20 still looks possible.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 1:55:10 PM

Session high for March gold here, up 5 to 427. QQQQ is holding at 37.80, up a dime on very light volume of 36.2M shares today.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 1:52:40 PM

The TRAN is trying to form a high low on its 15-minute chart. That hasn't been confirmed yet.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 1:51:16 PM

The OEX is moving toward the top of the range in which it's traded most of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 1:42:25 PM

Freddie Mac (FRE) $67.12 +4.28% ... strong bounce today after Citigroup (C) $49.22 -0.36% disclosed it has 6.3% stake.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 1:32:10 PM

Sovereign Bancorp (SOV) $23.41 -0.59% ... decent spike of 227,000 shares to upside last 5 minutes. BIX.X 372.00 +0.46% ... best levels of session.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 1:24:59 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 1:20:08 PM

This rising trendline appears to have had some impact on the SPX's trading pattern. Link There could be a continuation-form inverse H&S on that daily chart. I don't trust these continuation-form inverse H&S's, but I am watching it. The SPX would not even begin to confirm that formation until it climbed above that rising red trendline. I can't feel too bullish until the SPX pushes above that trendline.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 1:20:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 1:15:27 PM

QQQQ has been drifting higher, currently up to 37.84 and back above the 7200-tick SMA. Volume remains very slim at 33.9M QQQQ shares traded- on my tick-driven chart, there's precious little data to drive any of the intraday indicators. 30 min and 60 min channel support continue to hold between 37.60-.65, with upper channel resitance lined up at 38.00.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 1:10:11 PM

The OEX's five-minute Keltner lines have clamped down around the OEX as it trades sideways in a straight line. This portends a breakdown, but doesn't say which direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 1:09:06 PM

The 3 month and 6 month note auctions were well-received, generating bid to cover ratios of 2.19 and 2.3 respectively. Ten year treasuries continue to advance, TNX up 2.4 bps to 4.071%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 1:11:00 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 1:01:10 PM

A comment on my OEX daily chart: Link Notice, however, the tentative MACD break up through a descending trendline. While there's bearish price/MACD divergence on this last swing higher, that trendline break offers a little hope if it continues.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 12:49:02 PM

So far, the TRAN has not sustained numbers above 3600, but it hasn't confirmed a failure by dropping to a new LOD, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 12:37:01 PM

Session high for ten year treasuries with TNX -1.9 bps at 4.08%. I guess the note auction is going well- awaiting the 1PM results.

Tab Gilles : 2/14/2005 12:32:20 PM

MURPHY OIL chart (MUR) Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 12:32:05 PM

Updated QQQQ chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 12:36:22 PM

NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 7,276.63 +0.20% ... best levels of session and set to challenge its all-time high of 7,273.18 from 12/31/04. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 12:30:10 PM

The OEX is attempting a push higher. Bulls first want to see that 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 576.80, something that appears doable, and then a fifteen-minute close above the one currently at 577.42. A break above the descending trendline off Friday's high is the next task, but first let's see if any of these others is accomplished.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 12:29:15 PM

A big intraday whipsaw has March crude oil down 1.01% to 46.675 here, 10 cents above the current low.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 12:19:49 PM

Tab, that chart linked to your 12:06 post looks like a possible track for the correlative fan theory that Pring espouses in one of his technical analysis books. You may be familiar with it, but for the benefit of new readers, it's a sort of a three-strikes-and-you're-out theory, only it's a three-broken-trendlines-and-the-trend-is-over one. There's a first sharply rising (or falling, if the trend is down) trendline that's broken; a second, more sustainable one that is also broken, and then a third. When it's broken, the trend is over, according to this theory.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 12:10:58 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart updated at this Link. Note how light the volume remains, with only 28.8M shares traded today.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 12:06:29 PM

The OEX just isn't budging far from its five-minute 21/100/130-ema's, all now between 576.73 and 576.51, with the OEX currently at 576.31.

Tab Gilles : 2/14/2005 12:06:01 PM

$TRAN 1 year Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 12:10:23 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 11:59:56 AM

Session high for silver futures here at 7.325, +1.79%, extending its big gains from last week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 11:56:50 AM

eBay (EBAY) $83.09 +1.24% ... here's chart I've been working with prior to bullish profile. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 11:55:43 AM

The TRAN has so far been unsuccessful in breaking back above 3600. The 15-minute Keltner chart gives no prognosis as to whether it's most likely to break above that level or sink below Keltner support to a new LOD. Both support and resistance seem about equally balanced, with other lines thinning above resistance and below support. It looks as if the TRAN has about equal chances of traveling down to 3580-3581 or up to 3615.

Tab Gilles : 2/14/2005 11:53:52 AM

GOLD continues it's uptrend as dollar declines. Link Link Link Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 11:46:25 AM

Market bulls want to see a 15-minute OEX close above the Keltner line currently at 576.89, if not above the one at 577.50. Bears want the opposite.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 11:46:11 AM

While QQQQ is no longer pressing the highs, I think it's safe to say that there's been no breakdown either. While the 30 min cycle oscillators are rolling over, the cycle channel on the tick-driven chart has barely stopped rising yet, with price now at the lower end but still within its rising trend from Friday morning. A break below 37.60 will be required to break the ascent.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 11:43:31 AM

Crude oil is firm, up .25 at 47.40 here with gold and silver holding the bulk of their gains as well. The miners have pulled back, however, with HUI up .61% at 210.08 and XAU +.12% at 95.01.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 11:42:32 AM

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $5.06 +14.7% ... early Friday I showed "fitted 38.2%" (PINK) and ALTI pegged the resulting 100%. Today I add another retracement with 100% at current bullish vertical count of $15.75. Link Note key overlaps at $3.75 and nice "zone" from $6.47-$6.60. BLUE was conventional from 01/28/04 high of $4.40

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 11:38:17 AM

The TRAN has risen to test its five-minute 21/100/130-ema's and the 3600 level from the underside. The TRAN is at 3595.54 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 11:36:01 AM

Reports say that the Kansas City Fed Factory survey for January saw an increase to 18 from December's 1, with shipments, orders and prices-paid components all rising, but with the employment component falling to -4 from the previous 5.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 11:32:34 AM

The OEX remains stuck at the five-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 11:24:45 AM

I'm still puzzling over my 11:03 post, and I bet you are, too. LEH is of course not a homebuilder. I was going through that list of components the first time and saw no homebuilders, so composed a post about how the OEX wasn't impacted by the drop in the homebuilders except peripherally through stocks such as HD. Then I went through the list one more time and though, uh-oh, there's one after all: LEH. Don't know what I was thinking at the time, except scrambling to get the post written.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 11:21:01 AM

Despite the weakness off the 37.94 high, the 30 min cycle channel has not rolled over and is only now beginning to flatten. I remain dubious of QQQQ's upside prospects from here because of the toppy 30, 60 and daily cycle oscillators, the strength of 38.00 confluence, and the so far light QQQQ volume today, only 23.5M shares traded so far.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 11:18:11 AM

The OEX threatens to fall beneath the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's, with those averages at 576.87, 576.76, and 576.49, respectively. Watch the 50% retracement of Friday's range for possible support, with that midpoint at about 575.77.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 11:21:18 AM

Bullish swing trade add to position alert ... adding back an additional 200 shares of Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $4.87 +10.68% Link here. Will raise stop an entire position (400 shares) to $2.60. Targeting mid-teens.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 11:03:09 AM

AIG is one drag on the OEX today, of course, as is BMY, turning lower beneath its 200-sma but still in a triangular consolidation pattern. MEDI also turns lower beneath its 200-sma, but is in a possible inverse H&S, with the right shoulder being tested as I type. The OEX doesn't appear to be impacted by weakness in the DJUSHB, home builders, with few home builders, unless I've missed some other than LEH. LEH pulls back only slightly.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 11:10:08 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 10:59:45 AM

NetWolves (WOLV) $1.24 +14.8% Link ... breaks back above 50-day SMA ($1.073)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 10:55:41 AM

QQQQ is pulling back from a nominally higher high of 37.94, down to 37.85 here. 7200 tick SMA support is now being tested, and if 37.84 fails, look for the 30 min cycle upphase to stall. It will take a move to the 37.60 level for at least 5 minutes to begin generating long-overdue downticks in the 30 min cycle.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:52:35 AM

So far, the OEX has been producing fifteen-minute closes below first Keltner resistance, as bears might hope, but it's not dropping any further, and that's not what bears had hoped to see. Unlike the TRAN, it has so far been finding support on its five-minute 100/130-ema's, currently at 576.80 and 576.49, respectively. OEX traders need to keep the TRAN's example in mind, however. With the techs, RLX, and BIX performing relatively well, however, it may be hard to drive the OEX too low.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 10:49:47 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:46:12 AM

The TRAN is dropping now through its recent consolidation zone, with the 30-sma just below its current position. That average is at 3589.52 and the TRAN at 3594.60. That recent consolidation pattern is beginning to take on a bit of a broadening pattern look, a megaphone shape. Traditionally these have been bearish when they come at the top of a climb, but don't tell that to traders watching upside breakouts lately.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 10:39:27 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.02 -0.06% ... updated daily interval bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link Overlapping WEEKLY Pivot and MONTHLY R1 become near-term support, while three levels of resistance $108.74-$108.78 may well be Feb. expiration resistance.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:39:05 AM

The TRAN is dropping below the five-minute 100/130-ema's. Below this is the 38.2% retracement of the TRAN's decline off the late December high, with that 38.2% Fib level at about 3596.23. The TRAN is at 3597.68 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 10:38:20 AM

New high for QQQQ here at 37.93. 30 min channel resistance is up to 38.00. 60 min resistance is at 37.97.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:35:03 AM

Potential H&S on the SOX's 15-minute chart, testing the right-shoulder level now. A rise much above the current 437 level will invalidate it . . . heading up as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 10:34:55 AM

March crude opens lower, down .025 at 47.125.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:34:02 AM

TRAN inching below 3600, but still testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's. This is not what market bulls want to see, however.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:26:31 AM

On any OEX bounce, bears want to see 15-minute closes remain below the Keltner line currently at 577.34, or at least below the line currently at 578.61. Bulls want the opposite.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 10:23:04 AM

QQQQ continues to press Friday's high, holding above 37.84 here but below 37.90. The 60 min cycle channel is holding at 37.92, while the 30 min top has risen to 37.99. This is verging on an upside trending move for the overbought 30 min cycle, which has been due for a downphase since the last hour of Friday's session.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 10:21:46 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:16:22 AM

Testing, testing, testing. This should be a prime point for an OEX bounce this morning, but the OEX isn't yet showing much inclination to bounce. The TRAN is doing some testing of its own--of the 3600 level, and its own five-minute 100/130-ema's. Those are at 3602.38 and 3599.35, respectively, for the TRAN, and it's currently at 3601.24. Keep an eye on the TRAN. Market bulls don't want to see the TRAN plummeting below 3600.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:10:17 AM

Addendum to my 10:08 post: Whether or not the OEX descending through that channel depends much on how it behaves with respect to the current test of its five-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:09:30 AM

Here's where the OEX is with respect to a rising regression channel that it began forming as it climbed off the 1/24 low. Link The OEX looks vulnerable to the bottom of that rising regression channel, at least, but a decline that stopped there and bounced back up through the channel wouldn't be bearish, certainly. Have to see what happens at that 574 level, if it's hit.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 10:03:53 AM

Unless the OEX gets hit with a sell program, it appears that 576.20-576.40-ish support might be enough to prompt at least a small bounce. I would be a bit worried if it didn't, if I were in bullish positions.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 10:10:37 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link Friday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 10:02:05 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 37.84 here, with the upper 30 and 60 min channels creeping up to 37.92. While I still see potential upside to 38.00, the combination of confluence resistance at that level with the toppy 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators suggests that bulls are going to have a very tough time surpassing that level from here. Combined with the toppy daily cycle oscillators, there's the possibility that a spike to that level would be the daily cycle high as well.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 9:59:27 AM

OEX tests the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 576.78 and 576.42, respectively. At the same time, it's testing the 38.2% retracement of Friday's range, at 576.55, with the 50% retracement at 575.77. Bulls don't want to see the OEX drop below that 50% retracement level.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 9:59:50 AM

VIX.X 11.75 +2.79% ... spike up from 11.19. SPX.X 1,204.69 SPX most active options... Feb 1,180 put $0.50 (1,440:9,659), Feb 1,210 call $3.20 (1,388:17,030)

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 9:57:01 AM

I'm getting different short-term downside targets for the OEX, depending on the time interval I view. On the three-minute, usually useful for the first few minutes of trading, Keltner support is trying to firm up just underneath the OEX, but resistance near 577.25-577.30 looks just as firm. The downside target of 575.18 still looks doable. On the 15-minute, support looks possible near 576.39.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 9:54:52 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just announced a 3.5B overnight repo with nothing maturing today, for a net add in that amount.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 9:54:47 AM

There goes the TRAN, just confirming Friday's intraday double-top formation.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 9:49:43 AM

VIX.X 11.22 -1.83% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.93, 11.18, Piv= 11.50, 11.75, 12.07

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 9:46:03 AM

I'm studying the TRAN. It's holding near Friday's double-top level, but on the 15-minute chart, support is thinning beneath its current level. If it doesn't hold on and soon bounce above Keltner resistance overhead from 3616.60-3620.60, holding those levels on 15-minute closes, then it looks vulnerable to a decline.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 9:44:07 AM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,205.60, DIA $108.02, QQQQ $37.81

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 9:44:04 AM

The OEX's five-minute 21-ema is at 577.83 and that's been providing resistance this morning, with the 100/130-ema's below providing support.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 9:40:27 AM

The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 576.76 and 576.38, respectively, and they've been providing some support this morning.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 9:39:11 AM

Potential for that OEX 575.25-ish downside target to be reinstated now, with that target suggested by the three-minute Keltner charts.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 10:11:54 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert for SBC Communications (SBC) $24.45 +0.74% ($-0.14, or -0.58%)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 9:35:36 AM

Bonds have reversed their earlier losses, now in the green with TNX down .9 bps at 4.086%. Gold and silver are holding their gains, with HUI up 1.02% at 210.93 and XAU +.84% at 95.7.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 9:35:19 AM

And there was the big bounce, erasing that suggested downside target on the OEX's three-minute Kelnter chart. Bulls need to see a brak above 578.56 as a start and then a break above Friday's high, having plans in place for 581-582. Neither bulls nor bears is particularly happy at this point.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 9:30:59 AM

The OEX opens at or just below the mid-channel support on the three-minute Keltner channel, suggesting a dip down toward 575.34 unless it can quickly bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 9:29:19 AM

QQQQ is holding within Friday's range within what appears to be slowly cresting 30 and 60 min cycle channels. Channel resistance is above at 37.90, support below at 37.50-.55. A test of either of these levels will target the key 38.00 level to the upside and the 36.92-37.08 confluence below.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 10:16:30 AM

Pre-market most actives ... MCIP $19.55 -5.7% (board approves merger with VZ in deal valued at $6.75 billion, or $20.75 per share), ENCY $12.14 +15.6% (positive topline trial results for its pulmonary arterial hypertension drug), DSCO $6.89 +18.99, ALTI $4.50 +2.27%, ARBA $9.38 +13.4%

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2005 9:15:32 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.58 and set for program selling at $-0.59.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 9:09:46 AM

Japan's upside surprise in the current account surplus as reported earlier this AM is being credited with the decline in the USD Index and the resulting strength in gold, silver and other commodities. So far equities are weak, but only fractionally so.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 8:52:59 AM

Session high for gold and silver futures here, up 4.1 to 426.10 and +.103 at 7.299. Look for resistance at 428 and 433 for gold.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 8:51:29 AM

Friday, the OEX reached within three cents of the January 3 intraday high of 579.11, but fell back the rest of the day in a decline that looks like a potential bull flag on the 60-minute chart. Despite that decline off the day's high Friday, the OEX still managed to hold onto a weekly closing high not seen since March, 2002. Bulls hoping for an upside breakout will be looking for a break first over the descending trendline off Friday's high, with that descending trendline at about 578.50-578.60, depending on how it's drawn and when it's hit, to be confirmed by a breakout to a new high. The top of an ascending regression channel that the OEX began forming as it climbed off the 1/24 low is now at about 581.60, so anyone in long positions should know ahead of time how they'll handle that level.

I can't keep the TRAN's level out of my mind, however. According to its typical percentage distance from its weekly 200-sma, the TRAN remains extremely overbought. Over the last six years, it's been more overbought by this measure only once and that was when it hit recent highs. In this weekend's Wrap, Jim commented on how far the SPX usually travels from its daily 100/130-ema's, and how it was looking extended by that measure, too. So, we also have to look at the possibility that the OEX has seen or is approaching at least a short-term high.

Despite the potential bull-flag-ish shape of that pullback, Keltner charts showed a stronger possibility that the OEX could actually drop below the flag's support, at least to 576.45-576.76 or possibly lower, toward 574.14-574.85. A drop much below that would drop the OEX out of that ascending regression channel off the 1/24 low, and might suggest an even deeper pullback, to 569.37-570.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 8:45:22 AM

Discovery Labs (DSCO) is up 20.90% at 7.00 here on news that the FDA has issued an approval letter for its Surfaxin drug for the prevention of respiratory distress in infants.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 8:35:58 AM

Ten year notes are holding their losses earlier losses, with TNX currently up .3 bps at 4.098%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2005 7:48:31 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1207.5, NQ 1535, YM 10808 and QQQQ +.076 at 37.76. The US Dollar Index back below 84, and the metals are higher as well, gold up 1.9 to 423.90, silver +.064 to 7.26. Crude oil is up .225 to 47.375, with ten year notes down .093 to 112.5.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 2/14/2005 6:45:16 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted strong gains on the back of its semi-related stocks and after encouraging news about its current-account surplus, with the Nikkei climbing into levels not seen since this summer. Other Asian markets posted gains, too, but European markets aren't faring so well this morning, trading modestly lower. Our futures trade modestly lower, too, off their overnight highs. As of 6:12 EST, gold was higher by $1.80, and crude, up $0.19. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher by more than 90 points Monday morning. It oscillated just above 11,650 all day, but lost that level in a sudden bout of selling at the close. It nevertheless closed higher by 78.64 points or 0.68%, at 11,632.20. That gain happened despite a strengthening of the yen when, against expectations, the government released figures showing that December's current-account surplus had expanded by 28%. It rose 35.1%, year over year. Exports were strong. The government also revised higher December's industrial output to a seasonally adjusted 0.8% decline month-over-month, instead of the previously noted 1.2% decline.

In early trading, semi-related stocks led gains, prompted by the SOX's strong performance Friday, Tokyo Electron's increasing of dividends and CSFB's raising of Novellus System's rating. Tokyo Electron closed higher by 3.3%. Also gaining more than 3% was Mizuho Financial Group, soaring 3.8% after a GS upgrade to an outperform rating. GS also added the banking group's stock to its current investment list.

Most other Asian markets gained, too. The Taiwan Weighted climbed 1.29%, with Taiwan Semiconductor noting a 4.6% rise in monthly sales, and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.85%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.71%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.24%. China's Shanghai Composite remained closed.

European markets are mostly modestly lower this morning, but the FTSE 100 held onto positive territory until a few minutes before this report was completed, with the U.K.'s PPI, CPI and housing price data to be released beginning today. January's input prices rose much more than expected while output prices declined. The building inflationary pressures are not yet being passed onto the consumer, the numbers suggest. A GS upgrade of BT Group to an in-line rating also helped sentiment. This is an important week in Europe for economic releases, with Germany's February ZEW Economic Survey results due tomorrow. In continental Europe, however, France's central bank trimmed its estimates for Q1 French growth. European semi-related stocks climb this morning. Some brokers and exchange-related stocks were under pressure due to news-related developments or earnings releases, but Euronext rose slightly.

As of 6:12 EST, the FTSE 100 had lost earlier gains and had fallen 1 point or 0.02%, to 5,043.20. The CAC 40 was down 11.63 points or 0.29%, to 4,005.12. The DAX had fallen 7.26 points or 0.17%, to 4,380.54.

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