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Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 12:59:06 AM

Stock Trader's Almanac notes for Friday is that the Dow Industrials have traded down 11 of last 13 years on day before President's Day weekend. S&P and NASDAQ have traded down 12 of 13. When an option expiration day, Dow down "big" 4 of last 5.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 12:25:18 AM

Swing trade bullish call raise stop alert ... I want to raise the bullish stop on the one (1) eBay EBAY Apr. $80 Call (XBA-DP) to $7.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 12:25:28 AM

Swing trade bullish call raise stop alert ... I want to raise the bullish stop on the one (1) 3M MMM Jan06 85 Call (WMU-AQ) to $3.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 12:21:55 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.82 and set for program selling at $-0.26.

OI Technical Staff : 2/15/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Tab Gilles : 2/15/2005 7:33:12 PM

AMAT Applied Materials meets Q1 estimates Results in-line with Street view; Q2 forecast above target

After Hours (RT-ECN): 17.72 +0.23 (1.32%)

INTC Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 6:05:12 PM

Big Block alert ... 400,000 shares billed out in the SPY $121.13 +0.37% at $121.13 (05:27:18) That's 5-cents above tomorrow's DAILY Pivot. 3-cents below MONTHLY R1. Last tick in extended session on the SPY has been $121.24.

Jim Brown : 2/15/2005 5:45:47 PM

The Pacific Exchange said there were 900,000 QQQQ option contracts traded in error and they are busing trades in all series, all strikes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 6:01:05 PM

Thanks Jim ... looking at intra-day charts of the major indices (INDU/SPX/OEX/NDX) it looks like it could have been all of them. QQQQ most actives looked evenly paired with Feb $38 C (67,815:175,462) and Feb. $38 P (64,223:165,908) Quickly looked at other option chaines (DIA/DJX, SPX, SPY, OEX, NDX) and don't see anything too unusual. Most actives all pretty much evenly matched.

Jim Brown : 2/15/2005 5:35:54 PM

Jeff, those busted trades are reportedly in the QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 5:35:18 PM

Option Trader's Alert ... traders should check their accounts later this evening as there was reportedly a major option-related trade error intra-day, possibly on the Pacific/Archipelago exchange. I don't have firm details at this point, but reports of trades being busted (cancelled) that may have been stopped out, or triggered during the trade error period.

Jim Brown : 2/15/2005 4:52:32 PM

AMAT Guiding higher for the current quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 6:15:24 PM

Closing Market Watch at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 4:33:21 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at at this Link Today's activity .... Bullish day trade long for shares of Western Digital (WDC) at $11.26, stop $11.17, targeting $11.48-$11.55. Carried this trade overnight.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 4:21:01 PM

Back. QQQQ continued lower and made good on the bearish divergence setup this morning in the 30 min cycle. The drop broke through 37.95-38 confluence but the short cycle bounce that followed has restored it. QQQQ is set to close still within that 30 min cycle downphase. The daily cycle upphase, however, was restored by the steep squeeze this morning and is no longer looking as bearish as it did with QQQQ below 38. Therefore, the cycle picture is mixed- bearish on a 30 min basis Link, bullish on the daily. Link

There was huge volume today, nearly triple yesterday's pathetic 55M shares. The spike high to 38.50 blew off. This is a gravestone doji, with a break to a new high reversed intraday on big volume. Bears need to see a close below 37.95, and, for confirmation below 37.60 to set up a new daily cycle downphase. Today's blowoff to 38.50 may well have been the doji top to the daily cycle upphase, but we won't know until we see some lower daily closes to generate the requisite sell signals. In the meantime, on an intraday basis, QQQQ is bullish above 37.95-38, bearish below 37.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 4:14:04 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.49 +2.10% ... $17.44 in extended session after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.17 (consensus lowered to $0.16). Revenues came in at $1.78 billion, up from $1.56 billion in same period last year.

Tab Gilles : 2/15/2005 4:01:07 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) chart Link

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 3:57:01 PM

Those making the decision as to whether to hold overnight or not should remember that tomorrow includes Greenspan's testimony as well as January's Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production. Long-term OEX bears and bulls have a difficult decision because the OEX is not leaving them much cushion. I had mentioned early today that profit-protecting plans needed to be in place today for new bears for a test of 577 and presumably daytraders or scalpers exited there. There was a minimal breakout above the 1/03 high, but the midline of the rising regression channel off the 1/24 low held as resistance. The OEX leaves another upper shadow behind, but may be hitting a new recent daily closing high. The SOX broke out, but leaves an even longer upper shadow. The TRAN never did break out, although it's perhaps closing near its high of the day. Its formation on the daily chart looks a bit like a broadening or megaphone formation now, and I wouldn't consider an upside breakout confirmed until a move above the 500-dma.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 3:53:35 PM

Bullish day trade carryover alert ... for Western Digital (WDC) $11.25 +0.35% ... will carry this trade overnight. Stop still $11.17, target $11.48-$11.55.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 3:49:29 PM

Just checking. I thought the SEMI book-to-bill number was this week, and it is. It's Thursday, to be released as usual after the market close, at 3:00 Pacific Time.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 3:43:32 PM

The midpoint of the SOX's range today is 439.83, a level that's being tested now. Bulls in semi-related stocks would like to see it close above that midpoint while bears want a close below it. Really, though, bulls need to see a weekly close this week above the 200-week MA. Thanks to Marc for pointing out the importance of that average in the SOX's behavior. Still lots of week left, but from the look of the weekly chart, I'd say this test is even more important than the test of the 200-day sma was.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 3:38:41 PM

March Crude (cl05h) settled down $0.18, or -0.38% at $47.26. March Unleaded (hu05h) settled down $0.022, or -1.69% at $1.2564.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 3:31:02 PM

The TRAN approaches its HOD, but also moves into a potential resistance zone. I mentioned another inverse H&S earlier, but the TRAN also has a large continuation-form one that's been setting up throughout February, with the neckline now at about 3620. The upside target, if confirmed, would be at about 3675.60, but before the TRAN hits that, it would hit the 25% envelope line above the 200-week-ema (I mistakenly typed -sma in an earlier post). That's at 3647.84 currently, and other than late last year, the TRAN has not had a weekly close above that envelope at least since mid-1997, the earliest that Q-Charts provides data for the TRAN. Maybe that breakout late last year suggests that the TRAN is setting up a new envelope level for upside turnaround points, but historically, it's extremely overbought right now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 3:33:51 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.22 -14.94% ... announced $4.05 private placement of 5 million shares. (see 09:33:01 note)

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 3:23:29 PM

FedEx (FDX) $97.11 +0.82% ... finds bid late in session.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 3:14:10 PM

The OEX has been showing Keltner-style bearish divergence on its 15-minute chart. If that's to continue, the OEX will likely not produce 15-minute closes much above 579.56. Big "if."

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 3:12:13 PM

3M (MMM) $85.92 +1.54% ... bulls could run the table to the close. Session high here.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 3:12:06 PM

If that was a bear flag on the OEX's five-minute chart, it nevertheless broke to the upside. The OEX has just pushed above a 50% retracement of the day's range and heads toward the next Fib level, at 578.88.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 3:06:57 PM

I'm watching the SOX. It may have just made a lower high within its potential bear flag. That would need to be confirmed by a breakdown below the flag's support and then bears would like to see this afternoon's 436-ish low breached to the downside. This is truly micro-analyzing, though. Take it with a grain of salt.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 3:08:59 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 3:02:21 PM

Here's what's on schedule on the economic front in Japan and the U.K. tonight: The Bank of Japan begins a meeting that I believe lasts two days. December's Leading Economic Index will be released, as will December's Coincident Index. I'm not familiar with the Coincident Index, so am not sure how the markets will react to that release or even whether it tends to react. The UK has several important releases, including January's Unemployment rate and the Bank of England's Quarterly Inflation Report. One source dubs that last one the most important in the U.K. tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:55:42 PM

Time will tell, but the OEX's climb off the afternoon low looks a bit bear flag-ish.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:51:15 PM

The TRAN tests 3600. I wonder how many more times I'll have to type that before the TRAN finally moves away from this number, one direction or the other?

Jim Brown : 2/15/2005 2:50:43 PM

Reuters reporting an earthquake in Tokyo.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:43:54 PM

On the OEX's three-minute chart, the OEX faces firm resistance.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:39:28 PM

TRAN attempting a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 2:41:00 PM

United Parcel Service (UPS) $76.51 +2% Link ... session high ... bold move above rising 200-day SMA.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:35:40 PM

Here's what the TRAN's 15-minute Keltner chart suggests. The TRAN has been testing the mid-channel level on that chart over the last hour and 15 minutes, with that level at 3494.27. This should be a bounce point for the TRAN, but it's not bouncing, at least not yet. It's smallest channel is beginning to sink beneath that support. Resistance gathers at 3597.87.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 2:35:36 PM

March Unleaded (hu05h) $1.25 -2.34% (30-minute delayed) ... session low and testing overlapping support here.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:25:18 PM

Jonathan missed all the fun this afternoon. He's here through hour after hour of no movement and then misses this afternoon's move.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 2:23:17 PM

BIX.X 371.72 -0.04% ... TNX.X up 3.0 bp at 4.103%

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:22:26 PM

SOX needs to pull itself together and climb. That's a long, long upper shadow it's leaving behind.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 2:22:18 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,207.64, DIA $108.28, QQQQ $38.00

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:13:33 PM

Here's how the SPX is behaving with respect to a steeply rising trendline on my daily chart: Link Note that it's possible to consider that rising trendline congruent with a steeply ascending neckline for an inverse H&S formation, too. Whether that's valid or not, the SPX so far can't maintain values above that trendline.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:10:03 PM

Here's a daily chart of the OEX with annotations I added yesterday. Link It's going to be touch-and-go as to whether the OEX closes above that line today, but remember that I consider this more a zone than a specific line.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 2:11:06 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 2:01:37 PM

So far, the TRAN is not above 3600, the OEX, not above the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's, although it keeps attempting.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 2:00:43 PM

BIX.X 371.41 -0.12% ... not responding to 10-year at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 2:00:12 PM

SPX.X 1,207.58, DIA $108.26, QQQQ $38.01

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:59:38 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 3.5 bp at 4.108% ... matching session high.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:56:30 PM

The OEX tests its five-minute 100/130-ema's, this time from the underside. As it did yesterday, however, it bounced from the 10-minute versions. The 10-minute's are at 577.32 and 576.93, respectively. Bears want to see the OEX below those averages. The 15-minute and 30-minute charts show the potential for a H&S, however, with the right shoulder yet to be formed. This would be an ideal place from which the OEX might bounce into that right shoulder. New bears don't want to see a new HOD, if that happens.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:46:45 PM

Western Digital (WDC) $11.24 +0.26% ... hanging tough so far.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:46:12 PM

Sovereign Bancorp (SOV) $23.46 -0.25% ... so far has refused to give up that $23.41 level where we noted volume spike to upside yesterday. BIX.X 371.45 -0.11% saved at WEEKLY Pivot on the buy program premium.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:44:38 PM

The TRAN's 15-minute chart is interesting. The TRAN has been setting up a potential inverse H&S (reversal form) at the bottom of the decline this week. It came right up to the neckline of that inverse H&S about an hour ago and then began dropping. It looks as if it's dropped below the appropriate right-shoulder level, rejecting that formation, but a quick and hard bounce could leave only a candle shadow behind below the right-shoulder level, appropriately enough at 3600-3605 or so. This is one reason that I like to watch the TRAN, because it sometimes leads or corroborates what's happening with other indices.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:41:54 PM

TRAN rising to test 3600, at 3595.77 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:38:55 PM

The TRAN is below 3600 again, at 3593.81 as I type.

Jim Brown : 2/15/2005 1:35:39 PM

Stocks splitting this week:

Wed HAFC 2:1
Wed INT 2:1
Thr EBAY 2:1
Fri TALX 3:2

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:33:50 PM

The bottom of the OEX's ascending regression channel off the 1/24 low is just under 576.50. There should be at least a tepid bounce attempt from that level, if not before. Bears don't want the bounce attempt to get too far. Here comes the bounce attempt from 577. Bears want to see 578-578.40 hold as resistance. It's kind of wild and wooly, though.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:32:58 PM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX.X 1,207.34 +0.09%, DIA $108.19, QQQQ $37.98

Jim Brown : 2/15/2005 1:32:55 PM

DHI just announced a 4:3 stock split

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:32:25 PM

TRIN 0.95 -7.76% ... just traded session high of 1.03.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:30:45 PM

Big drop. Congratulations, new OEX bears who might have tested a play at the day's top. Now you need to know what to do as 577 is tested, with that being the site of the descending trendline off Friday's high, the breakout point today. What you do depends on whether you were in a scalping play or meant it as a long-term play.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:30:42 PM

Wrong way! ... BIX.X 371.22 -0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:29:41 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,208.15, DIA $108.25, QQQQ $38.08

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:28:07 PM

C'mon banks.... BIX.X 372.13 +0.06% ... cut loose with one of those 5-minute gappers to the upside. 10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 3.4 bp at 4.107%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:26:03 PM

eBay (EBAY) $84.95 +0.74% ... wondering if this isn't a Feb. pin level? Bull would be happier with $87.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:24:59 PM

3M (MMM) $8.85 +1.45% ... edges to session high here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:24:10 PM

Networking Index (NWX.X) 221.35 -0.02% ... slips red. WEEKLY Pivot at 220.23.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:23:34 PM

Marc has been noting the worry some investors in semi-related stocks might be feeling ahead of AMAT. Good point, Marc.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:20:47 PM

At about 578.40-578.60, the OEX may have reached a bounce point, but it looks as if 578.90-579.10 may possibly be strong enough resistance to at least pause the OEX, if it does bounce from that support. That resistance doesn't look rock-solid, so its holding ability is not proven.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:20:35 PM

QQQQ $38.21 +0.89% ... back to test WEEKLY R1 here.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:12:33 PM

The OEX has now produced a five-minute close beneath its five-minute 21-ema and is now testing the 10-minute version. Over this week's trading, the 10-minute versions have seemed more important. A break through and 10-minute close below the 10-minute 21-ema at 578.84 would suggest a decline down toward 577.30-578.00 at least, but new bears need to know how they'll handle such a test if it occurs.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:09:55 PM

As Marc noted earlier on the Futures side, the SOX is now below the 200-week sma. The SOX is now testing the 50% retracement of the day's range. This is no bull flag pullback to that 50% Fib level, at about 439.94, but still, bulls want to see that level hold.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:06:30 PM

Advdec line dropping.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 1:06:01 PM

The TRAN remains above 3600. It's been bouncing from its five-minute 21-ema today, with that average now at 3605.43. A sustained decline below that should send it down to test the 100/130-ema's, down just below 3600.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:12:08 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 1:04:27 PM

Bullish day trade long alert .... for Western Digitial (WDC) $11.26 here, stop $11.17, target $11.48-$11.55.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 12:58:49 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 372.26 +0.10% ... edge to best levels of session. DIA $108.50, SPX.X 1,211.40, OEX.X 579.41, QQQQ $38.32

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 12:52:07 PM

Bulls and bears have a quandary when they study the OEX's five-minute chart with 21/100/130-ema's. First, the OEX has extended far above those 100/130-ema's, and it may soon be time to retreat to test them or at least to consolidate sideways a while longer while those averages catch up. The OEX pulled back exactly from the midline of its rising regression channel, with that midline showing that it is serving as resistance, at least at first test. Yet the retreat looks a bit like a bull flag retreat, and the OEX is trying its hardest to steady above Friday's intraday high. I would imagine, however, that the OEX is going to need to make contact with those averages sometime today, either after it's tried another bounce, consolidated sideways while those averages climbed, or either on a pullback. I'm not certain what to expect first, although Keltners lean ever so slightly toward a bounce attempt first--maybe beginning as I type. I wouldn't even begin to be thinking too bearishly, however, as long as the 100/130-ema's (five-minute) hold up. Today's high was a good place to test a bearish play, just as a throw-it-out-and-see-if-it-works kind of play, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a trial bounce sometime along through here, too, and that should tell us something.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 12:51:56 PM

Six Flags (PKS) $4.27 +0.70% ... little change on Jane's 12:46:32 post.

Jane Fox : 2/15/2005 12:46:32 PM

Dateline CNN Michael Jackson admitted to hospital in Santa Maria, California, after being taken to emergency room on way to trial.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 12:49:28 PM

VIX.X 11.60 +0.69% ... similar action to yesterday morning Linda (12:42:51). SPX.X 1,210.84 +0.39% ... most active options here are Dec. 1,100 P (14,206:29,630), Mar 950 P (6,800:19,728), Jun06 850 P (5,000:100,683)

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 12:43:46 PM

$TRIN coils, and the advdec line turns slightly lower from its low of the day, but only slightly. It's moving sideways to sideways/down.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 12:42:51 PM

The VIX has been heading straight up over the last 15 or twenty minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 12:37:16 PM

Mamma.com (MAMA) $5.52 +19.48% ... jumped from $4.80 at 12:00 PM EST .... no news that I can find at this point.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 12:34:23 PM

The OEX is testing Friday's intraday high, to see if that level now holds as support. Some Keltner charts suggest that it's unlikely to hold other than over the very short term and that the OEX might need to retreat toward 578.20-578.60 to regroup. The five-minute 21/100/130-ema's suggest that unless the OEX can maintain five-minute closes above 579.16, it will possibly need to retreat further, to 577.66-577.93.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 12:20:58 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 372.02 +0.03% ... rather quiet. Tech-lead session at this point, but thinking SPX/OEX needs the financials to bust the move above WEEKLY R1's. Bullish leadership is at the NH/NL steady, but bulls need the banks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 12:18:56 PM

Most actives .... INTC $24.44 +0.53%, MSFT $25.98 +0.19%, JDSU $2.04 +3.05%, CSCO $18.05 +0.44%, AMAT $17.46 +1.92%, MCIP $20.51 +2.91%

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 12:16:42 PM

The SOX's three-minute chart shows a confirmed H&S, with the downside target nearly met already. The SOX declines toward its 200-week sma, an important average as noted by Marc earlier on the Futures side.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 12:15:15 PM

TRAN at 3601.77 as I type, testing 3600.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 12:11:32 PM

The OEX is at Keltner support, roughly coinciding with its Friday high. It needs to find support here quickly and rise up through 579.60-579.80 resistance, or that resistance is going to firm.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 12:10:06 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 12:00:39 PM

Sorry, I just realized that I've been posting on the Futures side since I included a post for Jane. My posts are there, but here's the latest: So far, the midline resistance of the OEX's rising regression channel has held. Here's a chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 12:16:30 PM

eBay (EBAY) $85.75 +1.69% ... at 11:25:47, 415 contracts were traded at the bid of $2.20 in the March $90 calls. $90 + $2.20 = $92.20. Getting close to April bullish target of $94 that I had. I was looking into the possibility of selling a covered call with March expiration.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 11:23:03 AM

The 30 min cycle remains in gear to the upside, but price has gotten far ahead of the oscillators. If the price breaks down from here sufficiently to abort and reverse this upphase, the resulting downphase from a lower oscillator high will result in a bearish divergence. Pricewise, that will take a break straight through 38.25, confirmed with a move below 38.17 support. The 37.95-38.00 confluence is stronger support below that, but a bearish divergent downphase from here should be able to slice through it. Above 38.25, however, the 30 min cycle will remain bullish and the intraday trend to the upside.

I have to leave for my appointment. See you at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 11:16:27 AM

Bullish day trade setup cancel alert ... cancel bullish entry for Network Appliance (NTAP) $34.94 +2.67% ... (from 10:33:21)

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 11:13:40 AM

Not a single buy/sell program premium to this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 11:09:44 AM

Current session high 38.50 QQQQ. 7200 tick SMA support has advanced to 38.20.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 11:58:50 AM

Friday's intraday high was 579.08. Bulls would really prefer to see the OEX hold above that level on any pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 11:10:14 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 11:02:48 AM

38.40-.50 is confluence going back to late January- QQQQ should encounter resistance in this zone. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 11:01:12 AM

Big volume just came in- over 3M QQQQ shares within 200 ticks. That's the largest volume surge of the day, and it was to the upside. 1st confluence support advances to 38.24.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 11:00:06 AM

52-week high alert ... Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.60 +0.57%

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:58:37 AM

The TRAN finally decided to move higher. It's inched above 3600, at 3602.70 as I type, testing Keltner resistance. If it can break through, not yet known, next Keltner resistance shows up from 3610-3613. The 15-minute chart shows support near 3592-3595 looking a bit stronger than the resistance the TRAN faces now, but that doesn't mean that it won't pull back to test that support before continuing higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 10:58:19 AM

TRIN 0.73 -29.12% ... DAILY S2 here. DIA $108.49 +0.47% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:55:42 AM

The OEX still tests the midline of its rising regression channel, in place since 1/24.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 10:55:19 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:54:27 AM

The current dip has rolled the overbought short cycle channel over. Look for confluence support at 38.17. Rising 7200 tick SMA support has made it to 38.10.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:45:41 AM

SOX above the 200-week sma, as Marc may have already pointed out on the Futures side, but dropping back off the just-reached HOD, perhaps to test that breakout point. The 200-week sma is at 442.55 according to Q-charts, with the SOX currently at 443.42. Bulls want to see it hold that 200-week sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:45:28 AM

No shortage of action in the US Dollar Index Link , with 84.00 resistance still holding.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 10:48:16 AM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,210.83 +0.38% ... did kiss MONTHLY R1 (1,211.45) for first time in February. Session high 1,211.51 just shy of WEEKLY R1 (1,211.94)

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:41:36 AM

Friday's OEX high has been breached now, so bulls are safely past that hurdle, but the OEX is again at potential Keltner resistance as well as at the midpoint of its rising regression channel, established as the OEX climbed off the 1/24 low. The 60-minute Keltner channels show a potential upside of 581.54, however, with the top of that rising regression channel now at about 583.30. On its last approach toward the top of that channel, the OEX stopped short of touching the channel top, a bearish divergence from the previous rise. Bulls want to see the OEX get closer to the top of that channel and not continue that form of bearish divergence. That's why the test of the midline of that rising regression channel is so dangerous. Bulls should have profit-protecting plans in place from here on through the top of the channel. Bulls would really rather not see the OEX drop back below Friday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 10:39:14 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.49 +0.47% ... looking higher to overlap of $108.74-$108.78 here. Daily R2 ($108.26) gone, done, finished. 3M (MMM) $85.47 +1.01% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:36:23 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link . Those red paintballs represent the upper 30 min channel violations, and the lack of a pullback suggests a strong trending move.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 10:33:21 AM

Bullish day trade setup alert ... for Network Appliance (NTAP) $34.35 +1.0% ... looking for bullish entry on intra-day pullback to $34.00, stop $33.65, target $34.86.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:29:41 AM

All of the intraday indicators and channels point north here. 30 min resistance is up to 38.20, with the 7200 tick SMA up to 37.95. The danger here is the ongoing upside 60 min channel violation and the short 30 min channel breaks as well. It's at these levels that the bears should push back, but until price gets back below the 7200 tick SMA, the bias will remain bullish.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:27:51 AM

The OEX's 15-minute chart shows the OEX hitting Keltner resistance at 578.54. That resistance turns higher, so it's possible that the OEX can climb it from the underside without having to punch through it. However, this is a channel line that often contains the OEX, so bulls certainly want to see that climb along the underside, keeping that channel line pointed higher, if not a punch through that resistance. They don't want to see the OEX pull back and allow that channel line to turn down and converge with other resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:25:47 AM

Bonds have firmed slightly, TNX now up 2.3 bps at 4.096%. Metals remain weak, gold down 2.3 at 425 and silver -.111 at 7.223. Crude oil is up .15 at 47.60, off a high of 47.85.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:24:19 AM

If you're not reading both sides of the Monitor, you might have missed Marc's 10:16 post noting that the SOX was challenging its 200-week dma at 442.45. He notes that this has served as resistance since 2002. Great observation, Marc. Thanks for pointing it out, particularly as some other indices are not following the SOX's lead just yet. It will be important to see how the SOX behaves at this test.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 10:23:25 AM

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,547.90 +0.62% ... getting upside alert from e-mini NASDAQ futures (nq05h) (30-minute delayed) at 1,545.23. Close above here would have bullish futures bias to 1,593.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:21:23 AM

The current move above 38 resistance reestablishes the daily cycle upphase from its previous stall, and sets up the 37.90-38.00 area as confluence support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 10:21:10 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $79.00 +2.41% Link ... bold move here and a spread triple top buy signal!

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:20:22 AM

The RLX moves ever closer to 446-447.85 upside resistance, with the 50-dma at 445.96. The RLX's climb off the January low has a bit of a look of a bearish rising wedge, however, narrowing to its apex in that resistance range. By the way, did you see Jane's excellent Traders Corner article on wedges last night? I hope this one meets all the parameters and I'm not misnaming it!

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 10:18:30 AM

QQQQ $38.05 +0.50% ... gets trade at MONTHLY Pivot for first time in February.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:16:58 AM

SOX is leading the charge again, but again we've got some degree of bifurcation, because if another indicator index, the TRAN, is leading anywhere, it's not up.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:14:56 AM

The OEX has so far not been able to maintain levels above the 19.1% retracement of Friday's range. Earlier I said that was a 19.1% retracement off Friday's high, which was wrongly stated.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:13:53 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:13:38 AM

Careful, bulls. The TRAN is certainly not coinfirming any strength.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:13:01 AM

30 min channel resistance is at 38.06 currently, but will rise so long as QQQQ holds above the 7200 tick SMA at 37.88.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:12:00 AM

QQQQ 38 being tested now. And breaking as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:11:55 AM

OEX again attempting a push above the descending trendline off Friday's high, again appearing to struggle to sustain values above that trendline. If it should be more successful during the current five-minute period, confirming by a move above the 19.1% retracement off Friday's high at about 577.80, bulls can begin to take cheer. Bulls should certainly have profit-protecting plans in place as Friday's high is approached, however, as well as at 581-582, if that should be approached. Be willing to be wrong and jump out of any plays if there should be a quick reversal.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:09:16 AM

QQQQ is walking up the 7200 tick SMA. A break of 38.00 is required to confirm any bullishness, but the early abort to the 30 min cycle downphase is a very bullish development this AM. The 30 min cycle bias remains to the upside with QQQQ above 37.87.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 10:10:19 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:02:48 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:02:00 AM

The Fed's open market desk is taking no action today, allowing the 3.5B overnight repo to expire unrefunded for a net drain of 3.5B.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 10:00:43 AM


10:00am U.S. 2004 BUSINESS SALES RISE RECORD 10.6%




Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 10:00:18 AM

The OEX punches above that descending trendline off Friday's high and then comes right back to the trendline. No five-minute close above it just yet.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 9:57:02 AM

As we head into the 10:00 release, the OEX is parked at the descending trendline off Friday's high, ready to zoom higher or turn lower. Be wary if the first reaction after the release is quickly reversed.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 9:54:38 AM

Session low for March silver futures here, -.122 or 1.66% at 7.212.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 9:53:48 AM

The TRAN shows little strength this morning, clinging to the support of the 30-dma at 3583.51, with the TRAN at 3591.85. With the TRAN's ATR at 34.65 points, an 8-point distance above a support level isn't so very far.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 9:51:16 AM

VIX.X 11.55 +0.26% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.86, 11.21, Piv= 11.54, 11.89, 12.21

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 9:50:34 AM

The OEX found support at its 10-minute 21-ema and moves up to challenge the descending trendline off Friday's high again. It has not yet formed a right shoulder to go with a potential inverse H&S, which perhaps makes a sustained punch up through the descending trendline a little doubtful as yet. Let's see, though. Prices will tell us.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 9:48:10 AM

Don't forget the December Business Inventories data due at 10AM. Also, just before 10AM, we'll find out if the Fed is going to provide the markets with a net add or net drain against the 3.5B overnight repo expiring today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 9:46:15 AM

Updated 100-tick QQQQ chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 9:43:21 AM

The OEX's ten-minute chart shows a potential continuation-form inverse H&S with the right shoulder yet to be formed. If the OEX should pull back to the 10-minute 100/130-ema's but find support there, it might be in the right-shoulder-forming process. The neckline looks as if it would be congruent with the descending trendline off Friday's high. A drop below those 10-minute 100/130-ema's at 576.35 and 576.04, particularly if confirmed by a drop below the 50% retracement of Friday's range, with that level at about 575.77, would mark a rejection of the formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 9:41:14 AM

Weakness continues in 10 year treasuries, with the TNX up 2.7 bps to 4.1%. Gold and silver are back to negative territory, with HUI -.55% at 209.18 and XAU -.39% at 94.97.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 9:39:19 AM

The OEX tests the 10-minute 21-ema. Bulls want to see this hold.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 9:41:33 AM

Nike Inc. (NKE) $85.00 -0.24% ... Berkshire Hathaway reduced its state in the shoe maker. Stake dropped to 2.5 million from 6 million.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 9:41:07 AM

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) $31.91 +1.91% Link ... Berkshire Hathaway doubled its stake in cable TV operator during Q4. Now owns 10 million shares, up from Q3's 5 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 9:37:55 AM

QQQQ bounced from a low of 37.85, 1 cent above the 7200 tick SMA. Upside resistance is at 37.94, being short cycle channel resistance, followed by the 60 min channel at 37.98 and the 30 min channel top 2 cents above that.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 9:34:32 AM

SOX headed up, not yet at yesterday's or Friday's high, with Friday's high at 438.83 and the SOX curently at 437.34. Market bulls need to see the SOX punch higher.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 9:33:18 AM

The descending trendline off Friday's high is now at about 577.55. The ten-minute 21/100/130-ema's are at 576.97, 576.34, and 576.02, respectively. A test of the descending trendline or of those ten-minute averages should be watched.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 9:33:08 AM

The descending trendline off Friday's high is now at about 577.55. The ten-minute 21/100/130-ema's are at 576.97, 576.34, and 576.02, respectively. A test of the descending trendline or of those ten-minute averages should be watched.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2005 9:33:01 AM

Pre-market most actives ... MSFT $26.02 +0.03%, TEVA $28.30 -6.8% (earnings/guidance), ALTI $4.83 -2.4% (8-K filing engagement of Maxim Group as advisor on proposed offering of 5 million shares), AAPL $86.62 +2.35% (Merrill ups target to $102), CC $17.23 +21% (receives $17.00/share cash acquisition proposal from Highfields Capital Mgmt.)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 9:22:19 AM

I have an appointment that will require me to be absent from the monitor from 11:30AM today. I hope to be able to be back before the end of the session.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 9:09:16 AM

The 30 min cycle channels are ticking up based on the premarket strength and the persistence of QQQQ above the 7200 tick SMA at 37.84. The 30 min cycle oscillator downphase that kicked off yesterday is stalling here, and will reverse if QQQQ doesn't drop back below the 37.84 within the first 10 minutes of the cash session.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 9:04:06 AM

The OEX closed in potential double-top territory, also in potential breakout territory. We're still on standby, waiting to see which it will be.

The OEX did find support at its five-minute 100/130-ema's, but it took most of a day's consolidation at those averages before it finally moved off them late in the afternoon. The 10-minute versions provided a clearer test, because only the OEX shadows reached down to test those averages, about mid-afternoon, before the OEX climbed again. The OEX moved up to test the descending trendline off Friday's high, at about 577.60, and then down from that level just before the close. It's poised to test it or fall away from it this morning. If it climbs and punches through that trendline, watch for first resistance at Friday's high and then the 581-582 level. If the OEX declines, watch for first support at the 10-minute 100/130-ema's at 576.32 and 576.00, and then 574-574.66.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 8:34:48 AM

Session highs for gold, silver and ten year treasuries here at 428.5, 7.37 and 112 47/64, with TNX now down to a .6 bp gain.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 8:31:51 AM

QQQQ dropped 1 cent to 37.92 on the news, ten year treasury yields rose 0.1 b ps to 4.084%, gold has added a dime. So far, the markets are greeting the data with a yawn.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 8:30:51 AM





8:30am U.S. JAN. AUTO SALES FALL 3.3%


8:30am U.S. DEC. RETAIL SALES REVISED TO 1.1% VS. 1.2%

8:30am U.S. JAN. EX-AUTO SALES UP 0.6% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED


Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 8:27:31 AM

The US Dollar Index has been dropping since 8AM, Link , with gold back to unchanged and silver up to a .013 loss at 7.321. CAD futures are up .49% to a session high as well. Ten year treasuries are holding their light losses, TNX up 1 bp to 4.083% as we await the 8:30 data.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2005 7:53:53 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1208, NQ 1542, YM 10807 and QQQQ +.05 at 37.92. Gold is down 1.30 to 426, silver -.069 at 7.265, ten year notes down -.0781 at 112 41/64 and crude oil is up .10 at 47.55.

We await the 8:30 release of the Empire State Index, est. 20, retail sales for January, est. 0.5%, retail sales ex-auto, est. +.4%, and at 10AM, business inventories for December, est. .2%.

Linda Piazza : 2/15/2005 7:21:22 AM

Good morning. Awaiting a Bank of Japan rate decision later in the week and tomorrow's GDP, the Nikkei coiled Tuesday, posting a small gain. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets mostly trade higher, digesting a number of important economic releases including a disappointing eurozone GDP, an encouraging ZEW Index number for Germany, and another fall in U.K. housing prices. Our futures flat-lined until the European open and have shown modest gains since. As of 7:07 EST, gold was down $1.80, and crude, up $0.21. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei spent Tuesday coiling, closing toward the middle of that coil, up 14.29 points or 0.12%, at 11,646.49. In the U.S., we await Greenspan's testimony, but in Japan, it was Bank of Japan's Governor Fukui whose testimony was awaited, along with a Bank of Japan rate decision later this week and tomorrow's GDP. The governor spoke before the Lower House budget committee, saying that the bank still believed that core CPI should show stable gains before the Bank of Japan changed its easing policy. He hinted that the right environment for ending the BoJ's easy policy might be coming to fruition soon. Numbers released today showed that bankruptcy cases fell 13.8% year-over-year, but bankruptcy dept rose 32%.

Major banks declined. Some autos and techs gained, with Honda and Elpida Memory being among the gainers. Elpida Memory's chief executive boasted of the company's plan to double the company's DRAM global market share the next fiscal year.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.16%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.42%. South Korea's central bank left rates unchanged, as was expected, although the central bank governor did express hope that the worst appears to have passed. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.07%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.15%. China's Shanghai Composite was closed.

Most European markets trade higher amid a number of economic releases. The eurozone Q4 GDP rose a weaker-than-expected 0.2% over the previous quarter's number, with Germany and Italy reporting disappointing GDP numbers. Germany's GDP fell 0.2% against expectations of a 0.2% rise. However, Germany's ZEW survey rose to a much-higher-than-expected 35.9, with the ZEW index considered more forward-looking than the GDP number. Demand for capital goods was credited with the higher ZEW index number, but expectations rose, too. ZEW has also begun formulating a pan-European number, and that rose, too. In the U.K., the CPI remained below the targeted 2.0% level, at 1.6% year over year. December's house prices fell again, but the decline was less steep than reported in the previous month.

European chemicals stocks tended to trade lower, with the marked exception of French chemicals group Rhodia, soaring after announcing Q4 sales. European insurers and reinsurers reacted to news or earnings. CSFB urged that investors buy insurer Zurich Financial Services ahead of Thursday's earnings. In stock-specific news, Electrolux soared after detailing plans for exporting production to countries with cheaper labor and for spinning off its outdoor products division.

As of 7:07 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 13 points or 0.26%, to 5,054.80. The CAC 40 had climbed 8.68 points or 0.22%, to 4,020.79. The DAX had climbed 10.33 points or 0.24%, at 4,396.73.

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