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Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 2:00:35 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.86 and set for program selling at $-0.16. I've had a couple of questions from some traders regarding "what is this?" I'll write an Ask the Analyst column regarding these buy/sell programs premiums this weekend, and add a couple of new ideas/observations that traders might want to be aware of. When we get the old "Bailey's Basics" and "Ask the Analyst" archive moved over to the new servers, I will also post some of the other columns that I've written regarding how to use the Pivot Matrix as well as buy/sell program premiums in your intra-day trading. Here's a 3-chart montage (futures, cash, premium) where trader can better understand how the arbitrage between futures and cash, generated the BUY program premium on Wednesday from 10:15-10:30. Link Hopefully you say "that buy program premium" was meaningless. If so... then this weekend's Ask the Analyst column might be of interest.

OI Technical Staff : 2/16/2005 9:59:45 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 5:45:15 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Closing Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 5:19:34 PM

Good Gravy! Phelps Dodge (PD) $97.04 +2.68% ... looked at this one for the "copper hoppers" earlier this morning at $94.50, but thought stock would stay pegged near $95.00. Did see some action in the Feb. $95 calls at $0.60 when I was looking at open interest, but despite the Dollar Index falling after test of WEEKLY S1 (session high came at 10:35 AM EST), just didn't have the guts to profile a speculative trade in those calls.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 4:32:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's activity ... Bullish day trade carryover stopped in shares of Western Digital (WDC) at $11.10. ($-0.16, or 1.42%) Bullish day trade long in shares of Alcan (AL) at $36.51, sold at target of $37.00. ($+0.49, or +1.34%) Bullish day trade long in shares of Ipsco (IPS) at $47.75, sold at $48.80 when target of $48.90 was achieved. ($+1.05, or +2.20%)

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 4:03:31 PM

DIA $108.43 , SPY $121.17

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 4:02:22 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.40, SPY $121.15.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 4:01:45 PM

SPY $121.12 ... tomorrow morning... look for a "pop and drop"

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 3:58:42 PM

30 min candle view of QQQQ at this Link . In this timeframe, the rising trend won't be broken until the lower broadening wedge support line is broken at 37.08-.10. A break above 38.65 would invalidate this broadening pattern.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:56:00 PM

The OEX is perhaps again closing just beneath January's intraday high, but again above any closing high from December and January. The OEX dropped just below a rising regression channel off the 1/24 low, but popped back inside that channel by the close, where it again resides on channel support, poised to either rise through the channel again or drop through support. In my first OEX-related post this morning, I noted that if bearish Keltner-style divergence were to continue, the OEX would not show 15-minute closes much above 579.60, and it didn't. The OEX tested the Keltner line in question in this afternoon's punch higher, but retreated, continuing that Keltner-style bearish divergence.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 3:50:24 PM

Nymex crude has resumed for the evening session and is up .15 at 48.475 here. QQQQ has yet to break below 37.92 and has not let go of the oscillator upphase that kicked off on the afternoon bounce. The channels are only beginning to roll over- bears need a break back below 37.92 at the very least.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 4:10:26 PM

Ipsco (IPS) $48.81 +3.63% ... here's an intra-day chart of IPS. Just has IPS looked ready to dart to $49.06-$49.21, I see a trader slap 2,000 shares of stock on PACX at $48.90. I think NYSE specialist sees it too, and suddenly he/she firms up an offer (he was backing off with light bid up to then). Link Now... IPS was trading some good steady volume earlier in the session. And while IPS won't trade volume liquidity like an X, AKS, or NUE, the eventual lighter volumes later in the session on IPS makes it important that a trader not show his/her hand early. Level II observation during the session had PACX a buyer up the scale. NYSE is your primary exchange. The 2,000 shares "suddenly" showed up on the PACX as ISP popped above $48.47. I can't be sure that a "day trader" was lining up a sale at my pre-determined target of $48.90. At 02:47:18, trader removed the offer at $48.90 on the PACX (good job... keep'em guessing), left it off, and then IPS worked on higher. Keep those specialists guessing if you can. Don't let them know where you're at, what you're doing. Surprise em!

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:49:37 PM

Potential big H&S on the SOX's 15-minute chart, neckline at about 433. SOX at 435.22.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:45:39 PM

In addition to other concerns, WMT's anticipated (feared?) earnings release comes tomorrow morning before the open.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:44:06 PM

The OEX's action is still consistent with a potential H&S, but if so, there might be as much as another day of chopping around at the right-shoulder level before a go-higher or drop-lower decision is really made. Sigh.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 3:41:47 PM

If QQQQ were to close at current levels, the 10-day stochastic would go out on another bearish kiss, the second of the current daily cycle upphase: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 3:38:14 PM

Updated shot of today's QQQQ blender at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 3:34:39 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert ... for Ipsco (IPS) $48.90 +3.82% ...limit $48.80

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 3:30:46 PM

The failure at 38.15 QQQQ looks like a short squeeze that flamed out early. The short cycles are rolling over here, and a break below 7200 tick SMA support at 38.02 will confirm it. After another 10 minutes, the 30 min channels will follow from the last hour's rise. A break below 37.92-.95 confluence should restore the early afternoon's bearishness.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:30:23 PM

Here's a RUT chart you'll see in tonight's Wrap: Link Of course, who knows where the RUT will be by the close? Smile.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:28:27 PM

And there's a TRAN reversal back through the neckline. The RUT is producing a strong evening-star pattern. As I mentioned in an earlier post, we had the stop-run and then bulls needed to see it hold, but it's not.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:22:29 PM

TRAN coming down to retest the neckline of its inverse H&S on the 60-minute chart, with that neckline at about 3623.40. Bulls want to see that hold. Bears want a quick retreat, to show that the move higher was likely just a stop-run, quickly reversed.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:20:55 PM

Potential for an evening-star pattern on the OEX's 15-minute chart, but that requires a 15-minute close below 578.50, the midpoint of the tall white candle in the 15-minute period before last.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:15:13 PM

I've mentioned several times that the TRAN is looking overbought on a weekly basis. Here's a monthly chart, with a 30% envelope surrounding the TRAN's 200-month sma: Link

Jane Fox : 2/16/2005 3:09:06 PM

Linda unfortunately it isn't just the Semi traders that are getting their necks snapped (3:03 post). Over in the futures side we are also.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 3:08:51 PM

QQQQ failed below 37.15 and is now testing 38.05 from above.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:05:46 PM

The OEX has not yet invalidated its potential regular H&S on its 15-minute chart, although the RUT did just that.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:03:51 PM

Traders in semi-related stocks have had their necks snapped every which way today. Up and down and now up again. There's a slight suggestion of a triangle trying to form on the SOX's 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 3:20:04 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:02:25 PM

Nasdaq moving back toward yesterday's high, the 50-dma and 2100 resistance, with the Nasdaq at 2092.98 as I type. Important test for the Nasdaq, too. We have a strong stop-run going, but bulls absolutely need to see it hold.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 3:00:41 PM

The TRAN also moves above a continuation-form inverse H&S neckline, visible on its 60-minute chart. The TRAN is soon going to slam into resistance, however, near 3650-5680, that could be significant.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 2:59:17 PM

As I noted earlier, the Russell 2000 has already invalidated the regular H&S that had been visible on its 15-minute chart, perhaps leading the way for other indices. The Russell 2000 tests or perhaps moves slightly above the neckline for a continuation-form inverse H&S on its 60-minute chart, but we of course have to wait for a 60-minute close to be sure whether it stays above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 2:57:50 PM

QQQQ's just squeezed above the pennant apex- kicking off a bullish trending move in overbought for the short cycle oscillators. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 2:56:54 PM

As follow-up to my 2:55 post, bulls should however note a potential H&S on the OEX's 60-minute chart. A move above Tuesday's high of course invalidates it.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 2:55:13 PM

If that bullish falling wedge interpretation I mentioned earlier was correct, the OEX has now definitely popped up out of that formation, performing bullishly as would be expected. It's also moved back into the rising regression channel off the 1/24 low.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 2:50:17 PM

QQQQ continues to slide sideways, holding below 38.05. 38.10 was never touched, let alone broken, and the short cycle upphase has indeed fizzled, with the oscillators now looking toppy in overbought territory. A break below 37.96 should restore the 30 min cycle downphase, but at this point it all looks like chop to me. A break below 37.80 or above 38.15 should be enough to generate a directional move- lettuce hope.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 2:50:09 PM

At 638.24, the RUT isn't far off its HOD, having earlier today rejected a H&S that had been forming on its 15-minute chart. It now rises to test a neckline for a continuation-form inverse H&S, seen on its 60-minute chart. I hate these battling bearish and bullish formations because it indicates that bulls and bears are still battling it out, too, and sometimes guarantees choppy behavior.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 2:47:18 PM

Good job... keep'em guessing.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 2:49:54 PM

Day trader's rule: Don't show your hand if you don't have to.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 2:43:30 PM

Here's the corresponding intraday move in the US Dollar Index: Link.

Daily chart of the March DX futures at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 2:40:37 PM

Gold is down .60 at 426.80, but HUI and XAU have recovered from their 1%+ declines, HUI currently up .22% at 298.6 and XAU +.46% at 95.3. March silver is up to a 1.15% loss atr 7.281, up off its 7.13 low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 2:36:12 PM

March Crude (cl05h) $48.60 +2.83% (30-minute delayed) ... just got an upside alert at that $48.73 level.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 2:33:59 PM

The OEX is now testing the underside of the rising regression channel off the 1/24 low. I mentioned earlier that this sideways trade out of the channel might mean that the OEX would try to climb the underside of this channel.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 2:34:22 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL ratio PnF chart of 5-day and 10-day at this Link Five day trying to curl back up at important level of "support," and needs to do it quit so 10-day can continue to chug higher. The five day gave that "buy signal" on February 2nd.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 2:31:33 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link .

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 2:30:13 PM

Nymex crude is high-rolling into the close, up 2.22% at 48.30.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 2:27:46 PM

Ipsco (IPS) $48.50 +2.97% ... 2-cents off session high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 2:27:12 PM

Dow Jones Steel Index (DJUSST) 178.05 +4.88% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY R2.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 2:21:58 PM

The OEX did finally punch back above the 10-minute 21/100/130-ema's, but not far above, and it's come right back down to test them. It's essentially been testing them all day, either gathering strength for a move up again or else as recent losses are distributed prior to another move lower. We just have to see what price action eventually shows us. Market participants have much to mull over today, and it may take some time to make decisions.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 2:19:50 PM

Upside breakouts aren't going anywhere, at least not so far. Tests of support don't go anywhere, either. We've seen days recently when the OEX and other indices zoomed up toward their day's high early in the session and then were parked there the rest of the day, and that's happened in reverse today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 2:18:12 PM

No reprieve for treasuries here, with TNX up 6.2 bps at 4.16% resistance. If this level fails to hold back the advance, there's light resistance at 4.18%, followed by the stronger line at 4.2%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 2:16:14 PM

The 7200 tick SMA is stalled at 37.96 QQQQ, and the 30 and 60 min cycles are stalled along with it. A short cycle upphase has kicked off, but it should fizzle out early if 38.10 can't be broken.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 2:07:26 PM

The more I stare at the OEX's decline off yesterday's high, the more it begins to look like a bullish falling wedge to me. That interpretation, though, changes when I study the decline on a 15-minute chart rather than a 10-minute one, because of the positioning of lower candle shadows. On the 15-minute chart, the decline still looks like a bearish right triangle with only candle shadows punching below the horizontal base line. This decline has reformed itself several times, but I'd be watchful for a possible pop higher. Keltner charts currently suggest that any "pop" shouldn't be too much higher, to 577.65. Above that on a 15-minute close, and the pop could move faster, the channels currently suggest.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 2:09:53 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 2:02:02 PM

QQQQ is back above 7200 tick SMA resistance, stalling the 30 min channel downphase. There's no followthrough yet. This chopzone is looking directionless here with the 30 min cycle opposed to the short cycle.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 1:59:46 PM

The OEX tests those 10-minute 21/100/130-ema's again. The OEX is beginning to show some minimal 10-minute closes above the 21-ema at 577.09, but not yet above the 100-ema at 577.33.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 1:50:49 PM

QQQQ is bouncing back to the 37.92-37.95 confluence. The short cycle oscillators are oversold, but so far the bounce is only registering as a wavelet bounce that should be done within 2-3 minutes. The 7200 tick SMA is down to 37.96, and the bearish 30 min channels will stay that way as long as price respects the 37.95 confluence top.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 1:49:28 PM

My charts show that the OEX has fallen out of the rising regression channel in which it had traveled since the move off the 1/24 low. Perhaps "fallen" is a misnomer, however, as the OEX has essentially traded sideways out of that rising regression channel. That's sometimes a danger sign to bears, so stay aware of the possibility of a push higher. If nothing else, this sometimes portends an effort to climb the underside of the supporting trendline for a while. Bears need to see a strong push down, but even then need to have profit-protecting plans in about two-point increments, at 574 and 572, for example.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 1:48:06 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert on Ipsco (IPS) $48.49 +2.95% ... to $48.00

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 1:41:18 PM

The SOX heads down toward its day's low again. Market watchers want to see how it behaves at that day's low, at 432.90, but investors in semi-related stocks must be getting whiplash by now.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 1:38:34 PM

30 min channel support is down to 37.80 with the 7200 tick SMA rolling over below 38. QQQQ is bearish below 37.92-.95.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 1:38:08 PM

Steel/Iron Stocks .. from QChart's sector lists.... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 1:33:01 PM

Session high for gold here at 427.60 as QQQQ breaks to a new session low.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 1:31:02 PM

Crude is back up above $48.00, at $48.20 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 1:27:33 PM

Neckline retest on the Nasdaq? Link

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 1:22:11 PM

The OEX's 10-minute 21-ema holds again as resistance, at least for now.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 1:22:32 PM

Big sell candle printing here for QQQQ, fresh attack on 37.92 support. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 1:15:18 PM

The OEX currently faces the 10-minute 21/100/130-ema's, influential in the OEX's trading patterns this week. Those averages are at 577.17, 577.37 and 577.14, respectively. So far today, the 21-ema, currently at 577.17 has been providing resistance on a ten-minute closing basis.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 1:12:00 PM

Good Gravy! Alcan (AL) $37.60 +3.46% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 1:10:48 PM

Ipsco (IPS) $48.14 +2.20% ... keeps bumping that little intra-day zone doesn't it?

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 1:06:10 PM

After trying a break through the topside of the potential bearish right triangle, the OEX heads toward support again . . . and bounces again. I've drawn a new descending regression channel off the OEX's move this week, and the bottom of that triangle now crosses near 575.30. However, the OEX has not yet breached the 576.40-ish downside support, also the site of Keltner support on the 15-minute chart. The top of that descending regression channel is at about 577.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 1:05:54 PM

Ten year treasuries remain weak Link , with TNX now up 5.8 bps at 4.156%, a 1.39% gain for the day. The key 4.16% resistance level is just ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 1:08:58 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 12:53:45 PM

Updated 100 tick QQQQ chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 2/16/2005 12:49:18 PM

SMH chart Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 12:49:15 PM

Gold has receovered roughly half its loss for the day, back to 425.70, with crude oil back up to unchanged at 47.25. QQQQ is holding at 38 after clearing the lower pennant resistance line but failing at the 7200 tick SMA at 38.04.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 12:49:14 PM

A trap? Possibly. Right after breaking above the descending trendline off Tuesday's high, the OEX reverses and comes back down to the trendline again. Doesn't look like a normal retest--the reversal was too quick. The OEX never made it above the last three-minute high, produced near 11:30.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 12:45:45 PM

The climb so far looks bear flag-ish, but bears would prefer that the OEX stop here, at the descending trendline off yesterday's high, preserving that bearish-right-triangle look to the last two days' activity. The OEX may be breaking above that descending trendline as I type, though.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 12:40:20 PM

The OEX presses lower into Keltner support. I've dialed down to a three-minute chart to watch. There's still a potential bearish right triangle visible on that chart, but the Keltner lines themselves don't give many clues as to next direction over the very near term. Except for the support on which the OEX sits, closest support is from 576.50-576.60. Closest resistance is 576.89-577.03. Overall, the channels point lower, but there's a pulling up of the lower channel lines on the intermediate-term of the three-channels I watch, suggesting an attempt to firm support. That's really micro-analyzing, though, and doing so in the face of an ongoing Q&A session that might produce market-moving statements at any time.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 12:42:49 PM

Ipsco (IPS) $47.92 +1.74% ... bullish day trader's chart at this Link WEEKLY Pivot $47.62, R1 $50.25. No options ... might be a "plus" ahead of an expiration Friday.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 12:37:03 PM

QQQQ is now testing the intraday pennant apex from below: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 12:29:41 PM

The OEX still hasn't been able to mount much of a bounce as Greenspan's Q&A session continues. It may not be until after that session ends that the markets head any direction.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 12:26:05 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Ipsco (IPS) $47.75 +1.38% here, stop $47.30 to begin, target $48.90. This is a "steel stock"

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 12:22:47 PM

Back. QQQQ has broken below the lower pennant support line, but is bouncing above the 37.92 fib line. 30 min channel support has declined to 37.90 and will continue to do so as long as QQQQ holds below the 38.04 level. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 12:21:06 PM

Steel stocks are hot today ... X +6.83%, WPSC +5.36%, SIM +5.19%, AKS +4.91%, STLD +4.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 12:17:36 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 12:07:17 PM

The OEX enters a zone of relatively firm but slipping lower Keltner support, with that support down to 575.79.

Tab Gilles : 2/16/2005 12:02:11 PM

Not sure if anyone mentioned the interview yesterday of oil legend T. Boone Pickens on CNBC. To recap, he stated that we're likely to see $60 oil before $40 for 2005. Reasoning...OPEC & Russia want oil at $50 bbl. XLE Link MUR Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 11:58:40 AM

Stepping away for 15 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 11:52:10 AM

SOX headed down again.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 11:52:07 AM

Alcan (AL) $37.09 +2.06%

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 11:51:29 AM

Bullish day trade exit alert ... for Alcan (AL) $37.00 +1.55% bid here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 11:51:28 AM

QQQQ is coiling into a neutral pennant between 37.98 and 38.12: Link

Tab Gilles : 2/16/2005 12:20:49 PM

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony today and tomorrow will most likely boost the Dollar and US economic scenario and a slide in gold. But, will it be sustainable? I've annotated 3 comparative charts of the $GOX/$USD on a 60 minute, daily and weekly time frame. Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 11:50:09 AM

Here's one interpretation of the OEX's action since yesterday morning, a bearish right triangle: Link As always, however, the breakout/breakdown should not be anticipated, and traders should allow for a possible fake-out move. This is particularly important since it's also possible to define the action since Tuesday morning as falling within a descending regression channel--take another look at that chart to find it--so that a break of the supposed bearish right triangle could soon see prices hit the bottom of the descending regression channel and head up through that channel again. Depends on your interpretation as to whether you see a bearish right triangle or a descending regression channel that could be a bull flag. Whatever it is, bears do not want that top trendline of the triangle/descending regression channel to be broken.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 11:40:32 AM



I agree- this coincides with the higher than usual frequency of repo drains I've been following in the morning announcements.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 11:40:18 AM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert on Alcan (AL) $36.85 +1.40% ... to breakeven. Here's my day trader's chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 11:30:22 AM

The GHA, GSO, DDX, SOX and NWX show mixed performances today. It will be difficult for the Nasdaq to get much of anywhere, either to the upside or the downside, until most of those yoke themselves together and head the same direction.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 11:25:35 AM

March Unleaded (hu05h) $1.230 -2.38% (30-minute delayed) ... cracks the $1.250 level after inventory data. WEEKLY Pivot = $1.26, S1= $1.22, S2= $1.17.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 11:17:49 AM

QQQQ bounced from a higher intraday low at 37.95. If it can make it past 38.17, the 30 min channel should turn up. The 30 and 60 min channel resistance bands currently overlap at 38.20.

Jane Fox : 2/16/2005 11:17:33 AM

The TRIN is neutral at 0.98 but the AD line is bearish. Since the VIX is not helping much at all I will have to defer to the AD line and say the internals are neutral to bearish.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 11:16:19 AM

The SOX climbs, and is above yesterday's closing level again. Only barely above it, though.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 11:09:33 AM

Keltner evidence on the 15-minute chart continues to suggest that the OEX's near-term support is strong enough to hold the OEX, but that Keltner support does drift slightly lower. For the moment, it looks as if it would take a sell program to plunge the OEX through that support, something that could happen if Greenspan says the wrong thing, but something that's impossible to anticipate at this moment. For now, I lean slightly toward a lower high if there is a bounce, but only slightly. I hesitate to look too far out on these charts because a reaction to something Greenspan says could change the 60-minute chart, for example. That 60-minute chart currently suggests that the OEX's smallest Keltner channel is on the verge of tipping over, setting a possible downside target of 571.80-572, but if the OEX should get bumped up above 579.70 or so, that outlook would change. Hence the hesitancy.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 11:09:39 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:57:33 AM

QQQQ has retraced the bulk of this morning's upside spike, breaking back below the 7200 tick SMA in the past few minutes. But the decline has been more gradual than the spike that preceded it, and it will look corrective to me until the previous low at 37.87 has been taken out. Current 30 min channel support is at 37.90, while 60 min channel support is 37.79.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 10:55:24 AM

The TRAN's 60-minute chart shows a potential inverse H&S, continuation form, with a neckline at about 3622. As I've been mentioning, though, at 3647.78, the TRAN will have moved 25% away from its 200-week sma. It already broke through that 25% envelope late last year, the only time it's ever done so since the middle of 1997, as far back as Q-charts offers data. That envelope line slopes up, as does the 200-week MA, but the TRAN remains overbought on a weekly basis. That may be capping some moves in the TRAN.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 10:54:37 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Alcan (AL) $36.51 +0.48% here, stop $36.30, target $37.06.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:51:55 AM

Nymex crude is now down .125 at 47.125, off a session high of 48.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:51:21 AM




Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 10:50:17 AM

Alcoa (AA) $30.37 +1.87% ... beautiful bullish move from opening tick. BLUE #5 here, so stock has probably made bulk of intra-day bullish move.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:49:30 AM

The big downside move in CAD futures is getting bigger, with the loonie now down 1.1% at .8033.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 10:45:24 AM

Resistance has held, and now the OEX has come back for another test of support. Keltner support is below from 575.82-576.58.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:44:33 AM

Correction: I mistakenly had Monday's 3.5B overnight repo as expiring today. It expired unrefunded yesterday, bringing today's net drain to 5.75B for the day. I apologize for the error.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 10:38:49 AM

The central tendencies portion of Greenspan's address appears to have surprised to the upside when including a prediction for real GDP for 2005. Some economists had thought there might be a trimming of estimates, perhaps as low as 3.25%, but the 4-4.75% estimate is higher than last July's.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 10:36:41 AM

The OEX's 10-minute 21-ema is at 577.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:36:00 AM

Big upside spike in the US Dollar Index: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:33:44 AM




Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 10:30:01 AM

Addressing the expectation that the U.S. can weather uncertainties with only small declines in GDP, Greenspan adds, "Yet history cautions that people experiencing long periods of relative stability are prone to excess. We must thus remain vigilant against complacency, especially since several important economic challenges confront policymakers in the years ahead." Hmm. Doesn't sound too positive, does it?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:27:14 AM

Nymex crude is up .625 at 47.875. CAD futures are down .53% to a session low of .8078.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 10:27:10 AM

Resistance at 578-578.50 holds, so far. More bombs could be delivered, to either bullish or bearish plays.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:25:58 AM

QQQQ failed below 30 min channel resistance and is pulling back now. 7200 tick SMA support is at 37.97.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 10:25:46 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 10:23:12 AM

Western Digital (WDC) $11.36 +0.97% ... has "rocketed" back higher after morning low of $10.75

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 10:23:08 AM

Stronger bounce than bears would like. Watching the 578-578.50 level now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 10:21:21 AM

SPY $121.06 .... session high ticked to $121.13.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 10:20:12 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,208.94, DIA $108.40

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:19:54 AM

QQQQ's filling the opening gap now on a strong rise in volume. Testing 30 min channel resistance right here at 38.17. 60 min resistance is above at 38.23.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 10:14:07 AM

Still not much to be said other than that the OEX is trying to cling to its last level of support before falling out of its rising regression channel, in place since the climb off the 1/24 low. If it does climb now, bears want to see a rollover from a lower high. It's perhaps now establishing a descending regression channel off yesterday's high, with the top of that channel now at about 578.50, but descending. Bears want to see the OEX roll down beneath that level, at least, but Keltner charts suggest that the OEX might encounter tough resistance before that, perhaps from 577.75-578.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:12:28 AM

Greenspan's prepared remarks at this Link .

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:11:00 AM

The VXO is down to 11.69 here, QQV +4.32% to 16.9.

Jane Fox : 2/16/2005 10:07:38 AM

AD line is falling but so is the TRIN. The TRIN has returned to its neutral band and is no longer bearish.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 10:06:16 AM

The OEX still tries to steady at the various types of support near 576-577. Not looking strong yet, though.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 10:15:57 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 10:02:11 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,205.19, DIA $108.11

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:02:10 AM

TNX has spiked to 4.145%, now up 4.7 bps as noted by Keene.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 10:01:33 AM











Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 9:59:29 AM

The Fed has announced a 2.5B overnight repo to replace a total of 11.75B expiring, comprised of yesterday's 3.5B overnight and last Thursday's 6-day 8.25B repo, for a large net drain today of 9.25B. The Fed's open market desk remains tight. Currently, TNX is up 1.7 bps to 4.115%.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:58:41 AM

Here's my conclusion: we're parked at support and will be until the markets think they have more information. I have no idea what will be said at that testimony this morning, but markets want to hear what Greenspan has to say about the new GDP, inflation and employment estimates for 2005, part of the central tendencies testimony he will give. They'll want to know if he believes that low interest rates have produced a housing bubble and what will happen to that bubble. They'll want to know that and more.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 9:57:51 AM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.36 +3.8% Link ... session low has been $4.02, not quite $4.00 for another "O." A trade at $3.75 would be a "high pole warning." BIIIIIG column of X though. Explosive looking.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:56:05 AM

The RLX turns back from its 50-dma, although its drop has been minimal so far.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:55:31 AM

The SOX has erased all of yesterday's gains.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:54:26 AM

The TRAN has been testing 3600 again today, still within its recent consolidation band.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 9:51:17 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 370.46 -0.48% ... session low here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 9:49:26 AM

QQQQ put in a double bottom at 37.87, but the bounce failed at 37.95. The 30 min cycle channel is declining, with the bottom dropping to 37.73. Bonds are weakening, TNX up 1.2 bps to 4.11% here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 9:48:25 AM

VIX.X 11.44 +1.50% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.81, 11.13, Piv= 11.44, 11.76, 12.07

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:47:54 AM

Here's where the OEX is with respect to the 10-minute 100/130-ema's, the rising regression channel off the 1/24 low, and the descending trendline off Friday's high. I couldn't include Keltner channel lines on this chart as it would have become impossibly messy, but there's Keltner support just below, too, down to about 576. Link

A bounce could be expected here, and now bears want to see it turned back, perhaps at the 21-ema if not lower. Bulls want to see it pushed higher. We may see none of that for a while as it gets parked just above this support, waiting for Greenspan's testimony.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 9:45:35 AM

eBay (EBAY) $85.57 +0.22% ... inches green.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 9:38:49 AM

QQQQ is down to a regular session low of 37.91 after dipping to 37.87 in the premarket. The short cycle is in a downphase with the oscillators only now approaching oversold territory. 30 min channel support has declined to 37.78, and should maintain a bearish bias below 7200 tick SMA resistance at 38.07.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:47:18 AM

Potential double-bottom bounce on the OEX, but this drop was precipitous. Without an equally quick bounce that makes it all just look like a lot of volatility still settling out, the drop looks important.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:34:01 AM

The OEX now sits on the bottom support for its rising regression channel, in place since the climb off the 1/24 low--bouncing just a bit as I type. There are several sources of potential support in the 576-577 zone.

Mark Davis : 2/16/2005 9:34:14 AM

ES Trade - Entry Point Alert -
Go short ES now... 1207.75, stop 1209.75

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 9:32:17 AM

Bullish day trade stop alert .... for Western Digital (WDC) $11.10 -1.24%

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:32:09 AM

The OEX is headed down toward the 10-minute 100/130-ema's at 577.54 and 577.18. All week, these have been bouncing the OEX, so unless there's just a quick plunge through them, we should expect at least a steadying, if not a bounce attempt. Bears then want the 21-ema at 578.35 to stop any advances. OEX still dropping through these averages as I type.

Mark Davis : 2/16/2005 9:32:39 AM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert -
Exit long play now... 1207.50, +3.5

Mark Davis : 2/16/2005 9:29:59 AM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert -
Long at 1204, stop 1204
Feel free to take profits on this play any time you want. I don't like the way the sudden spike flamed out leaving a long wick but I do like the tweezer bottom. ES is bouncing again and I want to see what happens at the opening bell... Link

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:26:54 AM

The blast in Iran and the rapidly developing situation in Iran and Syria point to once source of possible blasts to our markets today. The heightened interest in crude will make inventories another when released at 10:30. Greenspan's address might also deliver bombs of its own or blasts that accelerate climbs. There are many sources of upsets today that might overwhelm any technical setup you'd thought you'd seen developing. Be aware of those risks as if you decide whether to be in the market today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2005 9:28:25 AM

Pre-market most actives ... INTC $24.39 -0.32%, SUNW $4.25 -0.46%, AMCC $3.74 (unch), PMCS $10.76 -0.73%, ADBL $18.38 -31%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 9:18:27 AM

Ten year note yields continue to hang at unchanged, TNX currently flat at 4.098%. Gold is down 2.10 at 425.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 9:15:49 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 9:15:31 AM

2 upside 100-tick spikes dojied back from 38.10 resistance. That's the beginning of the opening gap down from 38.16 QQQQ.

Mark Davis : 2/16/2005 9:10:11 AM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1204, raise stop to 1204

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 9:04:45 AM

Tuesday, the OEX exceeded the January 3 high, closing back below that intraday high. The close was nevertheless a new recent closing high, leaving both bulls and bears with some questions.

What about other indices? The Nasdaq broke above the neckline of an inverse H&S, hit the 50-sma and then fell back . . . but not below the neckline of the inverse H&S. The SOX climbed higher, exceeding the upside target for the inverse H&S on its daily chart, charging up above the 200-week sma. However, it could not hold onto that average into the close, and fell back, leaving a long upper shadow behind. Marc has pointed out how important this average has been for the SOX. The week isn't over, but it will be important to see how the SOX performs in relationship with this average. That long upper shadow left behind Tuesday remains troublesome, however, particularly as it's been the SOX leading the indices higher. The TRAN has not been carrying its usual share of the leadership duties. While the TRAN gained today, it did not break out of its recent consolidation pattern. The TRAN is within a few points of a 25% move above its 200-week sma, with the TRAN rarely moving higher than that 25% level. The RLX has been a leadership index lately, too, both to the downside and upside, and it rose up to challenge the 50-sma. Wal-Mart reports this week, and there might be some strong moves in the RLX, either direction, ahead of and after that report.

Bears want to see the OEX round into a lower high, and there's some slight evidence that could happen. The 15-minute chart shows Keltner-style bearish divergence. If that is to continue, the OEX will not show 15-minute closes much above 579.62. That would preserve bearish divergence of a different type, too. As the OEX has risen through an ascending regression channel on its 15-minute chart, the last few swing highs have stopped further and further away from the top of that rising channel. So far, new bears who entered near yesterday's high on a try-it-and-see-if-it-works basis are still safe, but don't want to see a new high.

If the OEX instead breaks above yesterday's high, Keltner channels suggest a rise toward 582, with the top of that rising regression channel higher, at just over 584 currently.

Mark Davis : 2/16/2005 9:02:58 AM

That sudden dip was caused by something happening in Iran. Details are still very sketchy but they are saying an unknown aircraft launched a missle and it hit somewhere near a nuclear power plant. As soon as I can find something solid I will post it. Fox is also announcing Iran and Syria are forming a "common front" against perceived threats. Obviously neither one of these incidents, one short-term and one long-term, are good for the market.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 8:59:18 AM

Reports of a blast in Iran, along with statements about possible production cuts at the next OPEC meeting have supported crude prices this morning, heading into today's crude inventories numbers.

Mark Davis : 2/16/2005 8:47:34 AM

ES Trade - Entry Point Alert -
Go long ES now... 1204, stop 1201
Unless we are about to crash, 1204 should give us a bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 8:44:37 AM

Session high for Nymex crude at 48.10, +1.8% as QQQQ prints a new low at 37.90 and TNX flips negative at 4.096%, with ten year treasury futures hitting a new high.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 8:40:34 AM

Gold has plunged to a session low of 424.20 as I typed, with silver doing a u-turn back below 7.20 to 7.158 currently. The US Dollar Index is making some sharp moves: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 8:39:11 AM

37.93 QQQQ is the current 30 min channel bottom, but that level will descend so long as prce holds below the 38.10 level. Look for 37.95-38.00 to act as resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 8:37:46 AM

Session lows across the board for equities, QQQQ down 19 cents to 37.93. Gold has advanced to a 1.8 loss at 425.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 8:35:16 AM

QQQQ continues lower, trading 37.99 here with ES down to 1207 and TNX currently up .3 bps at 4.101%. Crude oil is up 1.01% here at 47.725.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 8:33:41 AM

Housing starts 2.159M, building permits 2.105M, both beating expectations.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2005 8:14:59 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1208.25, NQ 1547, YM 10822 and QQQQ -.06 at 38.06. Gold is down 2.1 to 425.3, silver 0.167 to 7.199 and crude oil +.15 to 47.40. Ten year notes are up .06 to 112 5/8.

We await the 8:30 release of housing starts and building permits, est. 1.925M and 2M respectively, and 9:15, industrial production and capacity utilization, est. .3% and 79.3% respectively.

Linda Piazza : 2/16/2005 7:03:15 AM

Good morning. With Japan's real GDP showing yet-another contraction, the Nikkei traded lower despite strength in chip-related stocks. Other Asian markets were mixed, but most European markets turn in negative performances. Our futures traded sideways to sideways-down off the AMAT-induced pop in after-hours trading until the European open and then bumped lower. NQ futures held up better than ES and YM. As of 6:55 EST, gold was down $2.10, and crude, up $0.36. Crude prices are offered support by a statement from the OPEC's acting secretary general that OPEC members lean toward a production cut at the March meeting. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, Japan's government reported that Q4 real GDP shrank 0.1% from the previous quarter and 0.5% annually. The government also revised down previous quarters. Private-sector consumption fell. Housing investment and corporate capex climbed. Without a 2.1% growth in the current quarter, the Cabinet Office fears that the economy will not meet the projected FY2004 2.1% growth. Some headlines term Japan's economy as recessionary, while others don't believe that Japan is yet in a recession. Worries about deflation continue.

Chip-related stocks gained, but were unable to keep the Nikkei in positive territory. The Nikkei traded in positive territory much of the morning session, but had begun heading down by the close of that morning session. It finished lower by 44.81 points or 0.38%, at 11,601.68.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.34%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.28%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.38%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.14%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.78%.

Most European markets turn lower. In the U.K., the big news has been the Bank of England Inflation Report, with the BoE speculating that the CPI will rise to the 2% target during 2006 and perhaps above that target in a little more than two years. The BoE speculated that GDP growth would be 3.00% in two years, but considered risks to be to the downside, brought about by changes in consumption and export outlooks. The Bank of England's Governor King commented that the inflation report remains fundamentally the same as November's, but some interpret it as more hawkish in tenor than previous reports. Another economic report came in from Germany with the DIHK survey of 25,000 German companies showing investment, employment expectations, current business conditions and business expectations edging higher. Business expectations saw a decline in both pessimists and optimists, however. Some did not view the report with optimism, interpreting it to mean that growth is not yet strong enough to change Germany's weak employment situation.

Western European car sales also declined 0.2%, sending that sector lower. Some technology stocks also weakened. Broker upgrades to Munich Re and German retailer Metro AG helped those stocks buck the negative sentiment.

As of 6:55 EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 11 points or 0.22%, to 5,047.90. The CAC 40 had fallen 20.60 points or 0.51%, to 4,009.85. The DAX had declined 24.74 points or 0.56%, to 4,377.29.

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