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Tab Gilles : 2/18/2005 1:53:27 AM

$GOLD/EUR;USD Jeff brought a good point yesterday on MM (2/17/2005 12:51:06 PM), on a pullback for the EUR/USD and $GOLD to form a reverse H&S pattern. Could very well be possible and that would setup a potentially rewarding rally. Link

Looking at the $SPX in relation to it's $VIX. $SPX/$VIX Topping of the SPX nearterm? Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:35:17 AM

June e-mini S&P (es05m) up 0.75 at 1,206.00. Ready for futures quarterly rollover (as in roll from March to June contract)? Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:10:12 AM

June Gold (gc05m) down $0.50, or 0.11% at $430.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:23:02 AM

March Crude Oil (cl05h) up $0.16, or 0.33% at $47.70

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:35:50 AM

e-mini S&P (es05h) up 0.75 at 1,201.75. Bulls may not have given up as they hold a settlement above 1,200.75. Link e-mini NASDAQ (nq05h) up 2.50 at 1,526.50 Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 10:24:22 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $1.72 and set for selling at $-0.42.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:18:00 PM

Today's "pop and drop" as alerted to last night. Here's the QQQQ with DAILY Pivot levels, and today's S&P 500 Premium (buy/sell levels) montage. Link That was a doozy of a sell program 10-minutes (2 bars) after the QQQQ broke below daily pivot wasn't it? So much for today's "whopping" $8B repo and steepening yield curve. Sounds like option expiration!

OI Technical Staff : 2/17/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 9:31:55 PM

Today's "pop and drop" as alerted to last night. Here's the QQQQ with DAILY Pivot levels, and today's S&P 500 Premium (buy/sell levels) montage. Link That was a doozy of a sell program 10-minutes (2 bars) after the QQQQ broke below daily pivot wasn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 7:53:21 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) quick look forward at next week's Pivot levels. If using current week's H/L/C (108.68, 107.69, 107.72) next week's Pivot Levels would be ... $107.04, $107.38, Piv= $108.03, $108.37, $109.02. Option traders can expect me to profile naked calls, or long puts, or combination of both in coming sessions. See that WEEKLY R1 of $108.37? That preliminary WEEKLY R1 sticks in my mind as it relates to the five (5) NAKED $108 Calls I had profiled (sell $0.30), but then closed out for a loss (buy $0.40) just before DIA continued its recent move to $108.68. $108 + $0.30--$0.40 = $108.35. The first trade I would be looking at is a LONG put at the $106 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 5:53:58 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link Closing Internals at this Link Closing Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 7:06:43 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.72 -0.67% ... capture of March options open interest at this Link I will most likely refer to this tomorrow, or early next week. Today the Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 11.77 +6.03% traded its WEEKLY R1 (put buying/call selling) Capture of today's most active DIA options at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 4:41:02 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity .... Sold long one (1) of the EBAY April $40 Calls (XBA-DH) at the bid of $4.60. ($+2.70, or +142.11%) Day traded short shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) at $35.41, but was stopped out at $35.65. ($-0.24, or -0.68%) Swing trade bullish call and bought two (2) of the Newmont Mining NEM June $45 Calls (NEM-FI) at $1.60. As you can see, QCharts' option quotes still showing decimalization problems with some options.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 4:59:28 PM

Very bearish close for the majors, and not just because they're closing at the lows of the session. Action today within the Pivot Matrix was bearish. (i.e. BIX.X falling from the opening tick and the "pop and drop" in the QQQQ)

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 3:58:35 PM

The Russell 2000 and many other indices are headed to closes near their LOD's. Not quite the TRAN. It's printing a small-bodied candle with small upper and lower shadows.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 3:55:47 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,201.62, DIA $107.79, QQQQ $37.51

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 3:53:48 PM

QQQQ is looking at a 30 min cycle downphase that appears to be trending lower beneath the fresh daily cycle sell signal: 30 min at Link , daily at Link . The intraday action has been respecting a steep descending trendline, currently at 37.57. Link . With the 30 min cycle approaching oversold territory but not quite there yet, there's room for more downside into tomorrow morning. But with the channel bottoms lining up at 37.40, bears will need a concerted effort to plow through that level before a corrective bounce. Either way, today's high should not be revisited, and I'd expect to see any 30 min bounce fail at lower resistance. Candidates include 37.73, 37.82, or (less likely) as high as 38-38.05. Because of the daily cycle bearishness starting here, any such bounce should be entirely corrective.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 3:49:48 PM

The OEX rises in what still looks like a bear flag. The five-minute 21-ema still appears to be holding as resistance on five-minute closes, with that average now at 575.33.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 3:46:27 PM

It's going to be QQQQ $37.57 or $37.81. TRIN 1.07 has reversed course.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 3:38:41 PM

QQQQ is testing the previous lows, which currently lines up with 7200 tick SMA resistance. QQQQ remains bearish below 37.57. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 3:36:32 PM

You know how deadly dull an opex Friday can be, so make your decisions soon about whether you want to hold overnight. There is sometimes movement near the open, with indices pinned to certain numbers by midmorning. This has been a strange week and might continue to be so tomorrow, bucking recent trends for calm ends-of-the-week on opex weeks. I took a look at the OEX's 60-minute Keltner chart to see what it showed. It shows that the smallest Keltner channel is aimed down toward 572.20-572.76, but that if the OEX can produce 60-minute closes above the Keltner resistance now at about 576.11, it can stabilize and if it can close above 577.73, it can turn that smallest Keltner channel higher again. Sixty-minute closes above 579.97 look as if they'd be hard to produce, however, even if there were a bump higher. A sixty-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 572.20 sets up a much lower downside target, a kind of edge-of-the-cliff play that rarely happens.

This means that bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 572-572.75. Depending on one's entry, personality, account-management style and a million other factors, some might choose to keep a small portion of a position in case that edge-of-the-cliff play comes true, but without a real plunge, it seems that a bounce would at least be attempted from 572-572.75, if not earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 3:35:48 PM

Bullish day trade cancel order alert cancel the bullish order for the QQQQ $37.25-05

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 3:33:53 PM

If a bounce is going to take place to the close, it should be at approximately 03:40 PM EST. QQQQ $37.51 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 3:26:22 PM

Preliminary daily cycle sell signal for QQQQ. Link Tuesday's high volume gravestone doji is looking like the daily cycle high.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 3:24:38 PM

RUT just off its LOD. The 50-dma is just below at 630.29, but prices have actually shown a stronger relationship to its 30-dma at 622.74, so a break of the 50-dma may not be particularly troublesome if the 30-dma holds.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 3:21:16 PM

Not sure which of these two lower trendlines is most valid, but what is clear is that, unsuccessful at punching through the upper trendline, the Nasdaq turns down to test the lower one: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 3:20:26 PM

TNX settled higher by 2.7 bps at 4.185%, but never revisited the morning lows in the 4.2% area. 4.16% is downside support, 4.2% upside resistance.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/17/2005 3:19:49 PM

QQQQ max pain is 38, so I do not discount them closing it right there tomorrow. Not an overnight trade, but maybe worth a play at the open. It has not been a very reliable indicator, but if the bottom doesn't collpase at the close today, that could be an AM play.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 3:17:05 PM

March Crude Oil (cl05h) settled down $0.79, or -1.63% at $47.54. March Unleaded (hu05h) settled down $0.046, or -3.61% at $1.2365.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 3:17:14 PM

Data just in shows that the port of Long Beach saw imports rise twice as fast as exports, at 25.4% year over year versus 12%. Not great news if you're focusing on narrowing trade gaps.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 3:07:40 PM

Look for first resistance at the previous QQQQ double bottom: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 3:07:16 PM

The TRAN has now eased just below the 50% retracement of the day's range. It's been up, down, up and now at the midpoint again of a more-than-50-point range. That's a big range for the TRAN, and this kind of behavior is typical of emotion-based trading. Yesterday it was the SOX behaving this way.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 3:04:37 PM

VIX Alert 11.90 +7% ... QQQQ $37.50

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 3:03:15 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 3:00:06 PM

The OEX still hasn't broken through next Keltner support on its 15-minute chart--it just keeps pushing that Keltner support lower. That means, however, that the OEX remains vulnerable to a bounce. The OEX is attempting a downside break now, but that will require a 15-minute close below a Keltner lne currently at 574.84 and no quick bounce afterwards, as the next 15-minute period begins. May be happening as I type, but it's iffy.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 3:00:00 PM

TRIN Alert 1.25 ... session high and DAILY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 2:58:56 PM

Sell Program Premium QQQQ $37.44

Marc Eckelberry : 2/17/2005 2:57:42 PM

DIA max pain is 107.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 3:03:49 PM

Bullish day trade long setup alert for the QQQQ I'll be looking day trade long should the QQQQ $37.48 -1.31% trade $37.25-$37.05, with late rally back to $37.82. Can watch it or trade it.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/17/2005 2:54:55 PM

INTC knicked 23.71 and bounced. If you can call it a bounce, but it is a positive move for 200 ema to hold. I was off by one penny, but it did the tag.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/17/2005 2:50:51 PM

Linda, not to be cynical, but Art Cashin does not work for the general public.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 2:50:44 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,202.51, DIA $107.90, QQQQ $37.54

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 2:50:42 PM

Updated QQQQ chart at this Link .

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 2:49:22 PM

TRAN turning lightly negative again.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 2:48:11 PM

Cocktail-napkin technicians (a la Art Cashin). Kind of makes you wince, doesn't it?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 2:46:38 PM

QQQQ failed at 37.62, a lower high. If the low breaks, next short term support is 37.48 QQQQ, current 30 min channel support.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 2:40:31 PM

So far, the Nasdaq has not been able to sustain values on a daily closing basis above the 50% retracement of the decline off the early January high. Each attempt to bump above the top trendline of a symmetrical triangle on that daily chart has been met with selling. It's still possible to view that triangle as a potential inverse H&S and the top trendline at that formation's neckline. The bottom trendline is now at about 2051-2052. Still waiting for a sustained breakout either direction.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/17/2005 2:37:36 PM

INTC could not break out in any convincing manner. I expect a test of 23.70 soon.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 2:35:15 PM

That double bottom at 37.56 will set up either a "W" reversal if QQQQ can clear the prior 37.80 high, with the first sign of trouble for bears coming on a break above 37.73. A failure below 37.80 would set up a descending triangle intraday, and suggest a downside break. With this week's gravestone doji on high volume, the toppy daily cycle oscillator and today's break below range support, the bias remains to the downside.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 2:31:12 PM

The SOX's decline is beginning to look a little like a bullish falling wedge. If the SOX should break to the upside, however, watch for potential resistance at 533.60-534.20. If that resistance should hold, the 15-minute Keltner charts suggested that the SOX could eventually retest the 200-ema or possibly the -sma. That's just a hypothetical scenario for now. The SOX hasn't broken to the upside, hasn't retested that potential resistance, hasn't . . . well, you get the picture.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 2:22:58 PM

The TRAN is one index to watch today, its exaggerated moves leading/corroborating moves in other indices. It's been zooming from one side of its widest Keltner channel on the five-minute chart to the other.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 2:18:16 PM

The OEX moves up to test the five-minute 21-ema at 576.02.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/17/2005 2:15:29 PM

Daytraders might want to nab a dip of INTC to 23.70. It has dual 200 ema and 10 ema support there. Nimble traders only, because if it gives way it would not be pretty.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 2:12:40 PM

QQQQ just tested lower channel support. Link . The bear flag failure suggests that the lows will break. The first daily cycle objective remains well below in the 37.05-.10 area if QQQQ can print that close below 37.60.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 2:08:19 PM

OEX tests the double-bottom level, trying to pull up and bounce. The five-minute 21-ema is at 576.10.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/17/2005 2:08:05 PM

Exit that INTC trade at 23.77. Too dangeorus.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/17/2005 2:07:17 PM

INTC bulls can consider buying this dip to the 50% multi year. Tight stops. 23.77, stop 23.67. 200 ema at 2370 and 10 ema also.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 2:18:06 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link Just noticing today's high in the VIX.X (WEEKLY R1) 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 2:03:10 PM

Bonds are weakening again, TNX up 2.7 bps at 4.185% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 1:58:13 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link . The current bounce is coming from 37.62 support with 30 and 60 min channel support lining up at 37.57, but that will descend so long as QQQQ holds below the 7200 tick SMA.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 1:55:32 PM

The OEX turns lower again after retesting the flag's support, and with that former support now holding as resistance. The five-minute 21-ema is also serving as resistance this afternoon, with that average now at 576.24. Bears now want to see a new LOD.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 1:52:04 PM

Look what broke above years-long resistance at $50.00 and set up a new P&F upside target of $66.00, at least: Link As a conservative trader, I always prefer to wait for a pullback and successful retest of former resistance to see if it holds as support. DD may not offer that pullback. This is typically a rather slow-moving stock, though, one that makes it difficult to benefit from options plays, especially near-month options. Another good reason to wait for a pullback, risking no pullback, is that sedate old DD's options may have inflated prices after the breakout. There's certainly a clear-cut get-out point here, though.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 1:53:05 PM

Swing trade bullish call option alert ... taking two (2) of the Newmong Mining NEM June $45 Calls (NEM-FI) at the offer of $1.60. Newmont Mining (NEM) $42.70 +0.37% Link here. For pure stock traders, would only be looking 1/2 position at this point, stop $41.50. Trade at $47 would get stock back on a "buy signal" with bullish vertical count to $59.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 1:42:33 PM

Back to see QQQQ having drifted through rising flag support. So far, the short cycle downphase is looking more corrective than a bear would like to see. A break below 37.61 would change that, however. The 30 min cycle is drifting sideways for now, with price hugging the 7200 tick SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 1:41:12 PM

June Gold (gc05m) an not-so-squished bar chart with conventional/fitted 38.2% retracement at this Link Isn't a "doji" a reversal pattern?

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 1:35:06 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,204.75, DIA $108.00, QQQQ $37.70

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 1:32:58 PM

I was perhaps right to distrust that classic setup on the OEX. The OEX's break below the flag isn't holding any better than the attempted upside break did. The OEX rises immediately to retest the flag's support, at about 576.50. The OEX is at 576.40 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 1:31:52 PM

June Gold (gc05m) ... here's conventional (BLUE) and bearishly fitted 38.2% (PINK) chart at this Link I "squished" the chart, only to tie in likely rally to at least 439.39. Best entry point for bulls would be the pullback to 422.45-425.30. Is "fitted 38.2% retracement been in play? See how nicely that "overlap" at $432 would tie in with the Point and Figure Chart? (see 12:47:48) Then Tab is also looking at euro/dollar chart (12:46:41) Keep this in mind as we build toward the equity side of things. Get a feel for the commodity, then the stocks. I always like trading the bellwether and Newmont Mining (NEM)

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 1:22:15 PM

This looks so classic that I mistrust it. Smile. The OEX rose in a bear flag, shot higher to test the 50% retracement of the day's range, was slapped back and now breaks below the flag's support. Bears want to see a new LOD to confirm.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 1:21:33 PM

Stepping away for 15 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 1:20:42 PM

The OEX's attempted upside breakout does not work, and the OEX drops back toward the flag's support.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 1:17:49 PM

The downturn in crude, among other influences, helps the TRAN. Its 50-dma is at 3649.72, near other important resistance, and the TRAN is charging toward it, currently at 3637.98. Bears want another downturn below it: bulls, a bump above it.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 1:09:55 PM

The RUT is moving up toward the neckline of that inverse H&S again, but bulls want to see the Russell above yesterday's high and not just above that neckline. Yesterday's high was 640.59. Bears, of course, want the RUT to roll down again, this time breaking below the 632-ish right-shoulder level.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 1:06:21 PM

Session high for April gold here at 429.10, +1.90, with HUI +1.32% at 210.49 and XAU +1.48% at 96.36.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 1:11:07 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 1:00:41 PM

The RLX has today spanned the distance from its 30-sma to its 50-dma, finding resistance at one and support at the other. WMT's earnings report is not helping the RLX to push over the top of the January gap. It's lower today, but still within the ascending regression channel that may or may not be a bear flag. Bulls want to see the RLX cooperate in any gains and bears want the RLX's cooperation, too. Mixed evidence so far, but certainly not any particular strength.

Tab Gilles : 2/17/2005 12:55:05 PM

Hmmm....have to study that, Jeff?

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:54:32 PM

The OEX's two-minute 100/130-ema's have been important over the last couple of days. Here's a chart showing where the OEX is with respect to them now: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 12:52:07 PM

QQQQ is printing the first downticks in the toppy short cycle here, trading lower toward bear flag support at 37.72. A break below that level, which now overlaps with 7200 tick SMA support, should roll the 30 min cycle channel over as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 12:51:06 PM

Hey Tab! Are you thinking pullback in the euro? Maybe 129? Get a reverse head/shoulder pattern going? That might have June gold pulling back, maybe $420? Get a reverse head/shoulder pattern going?

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:49:55 PM

Hold onto your reins. Greenspan testimony ending. Or is that wishful thinking?

Tab Gilles : 2/17/2005 12:49:01 PM

GOX 85.26 +0.89

USD 83.50 -0.22

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 12:48:28 PM

Ten year treasuries continue to rise, with TNX now down to a 1 bp gain at 4.168%. 4.16% is significant support- the key range here is 6 bp wide, from 4.16%-4.2%.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:47:55 PM

I was talking to my mother-in-law today. That "conundrum" that Greenspan mentioned yesterday, the continued low interest rates in the face of the Fed raising rates, hits people like her hard. She needs higher returns on investments to augment her Social Security and retirement fund withdrawals. She was once reaping 10-11% returns, something that she'll likely never see again, but now mentions 1-1/2% returns.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 12:47:48 PM

June Gold futures (gc05m) $431.40 +0.48% (30-minute delayed) ... was looking at various commodities last night. Here's PnF chart of June Gold. Note "low pole warning" after coming very close to its bearish vertical count price objective of $410. Link

Tab Gilles : 2/17/2005 12:46:41 PM

EUR/USD chart Fibonacci Retracements. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:43:10 PM

Lots of resistance coming together near 577 for the OEX. That includes the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 577.05 and 577.15, respectively. Bears want to see these hold on five-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 12:34:30 PM

Laughing.... I wonder if Alan Greenspan doesn't look forward to retirement during days like today.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:31:46 PM

Note that the advdec line has been climbing since about 10:30, but is still very negative. What matters most here, the climb or the negative number? I don't know, but whatever it is, it matters to the RUT. The RUT's shape and the advdec line's today are nearly identical.

Tab Gilles : 2/17/2005 12:31:30 PM

XLE & MUR charts Link Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:30:17 PM

The OEX now tests the H&S neckline that it broke through earlier today. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance is present from the current 576.50-ish OEX level, up to 577.23, and bears want to see continued 15-minute closes below those levels.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:27:06 PM

This bifurcation in the markets makes trading particularly difficult. The TRAN shoots higher, but the SOX doesn't. The RUT climbs, but is nowhere near its day's high. That bifurcation makes the OEX's action choppy.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 12:26:38 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:24:39 PM

The TRAN is shooting higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 12:19:43 PM

I'm thinking QQQQ closes out at $37.81 today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 12:17:55 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:13:53 PM

The OEX's bear flag it looking a little less flag-like, trying to break to the upside. The SOX, meanwhile, is hanging on for dear life to the lower trendline of the bearish right triangle that I displayed earlier today, having actually broken below that support earlier only to bounce higher again. Still nothing definitive either direction.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 12:11:20 PM

Forex markets are noting that Bush's tough talk to Syria has been responsible for a weakening of the dollar over the last thirty minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 12:04:39 PM

Bearish swing trade stop alert for Amazon.com (AMZN) $35.65

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 12:01:39 PM


12:00pm U.S. FEB. PHILLY FED INDEX 23.9 VS. 13.2 JAN.

Expectations had been for 17.5.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 12:04:01 PM

There's a buyer at $35.35 (DAILY S1) in AMZN isn't there? A lot of action in the Feb $35 Calls (ZQN-BG) $0.60 (1,138:8,183) and the Mar $35 Puts (ZQN-OG) $1.05 (1,081:22,081)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 12:00:31 PM

Looks like a bear flag for QQQQ: Link . The short cycle oscillators are getting up there, and 37.82 is still looking like a likely candidate to cap this rise off the lows.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:51:29 AM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,205.08, DIA $108.07, QQQQ $37.75

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 11:51:34 AM

This feels slower than yesterday at this time. We just have to wait for price patterns to play out. For OEX traders, that means waiting for the OEX to either break down out of its potential bear flag or else break to the upside and zoom past the right-shoulder level for the already-confirmed H&S, invalidating it after all.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:57:37 AM

Pep Boys- Manny Moe & Jack (PBY) $17.48 +1.98% Link ... supply/demand charts sure show a theme don't they?

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:43:01 AM

Can't remember stock symbol for PepBoys

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 11:41:24 AM

The 30 min channel has turned up here within the still-descending 60 min channel for QQQQ, with price now breaking 37.75 resistance and holding above the flattened 7200 tick SMA. Next resistance is at yesterday's low, which lines up with 30 min channel resistance. I believe this bounce to be corrective and should fail at a lower high, even for the 30 min cycle- hopefully this bounce won't drag us back into yesterday's range. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 11:37:53 AM

The OEX's 15-minute chart shows the OEX balancing on tentative support near 575.30, with resistance trying to firm up near 576.50-577.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:38:37 AM

QQQQ $37.72 -0.68% ... session low has been $37.56. Pretty close to that large block noted several sessions ago of $37.57 and "easy" day trade bear target, along with DAILY S2 after DAILY Pivot failed to hold support after morning pop. Large block observations in SPY $120.68 -0.43% at $121.12 may well give expiration resistance (SPY) and support (QQQQ).

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:31:17 AM

Autozone (AZO) $96.78 +1.78% Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:30:08 AM

Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) $50.78 +14.08% Link ... strong Q4 earnings, raised Q1 guidance.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 11:27:58 AM

Here we are again in consolidation, nothing much moving. The OEX looks as if it's trying to form up into a wider formation, most likely a wider bear flag meant to send it a little higher. Still watching the 38.2 and 50% retracements of the day's ranges, at 576.63 and 577.08, respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 11:25:23 AM

QQQQ testing 37.75 here on a surge in volume. Look for the 30 min channel to tick up if it breaks, targeting resistance at 37.82 next.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:24:36 AM

Bearish swing trade short alert for Amazon.com (AMZN) $35.41 -0.84% here, stop $35.65, target $34.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 11:17:49 AM

April gold is up 1.40 at 428.60 here. 429 is immediate resistance, followed by key resistance at 433.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:15:05 AM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,203.89, DIA $107.98, QQQQ $37.68

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 11:08:21 AM

Today the TRAN reached up to test the upper 25% envelope surrounding the 200-ema before falling back, corroborating that level as resistance. I've mentioned that other than late last year, the TRAN has not had a weekly close above that envelope level for as long as Q-charts has data. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:12:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 11:03:35 AM

QQQQ is approaching the 37.73-.75 resistance line, which now also lines up with declining 7200 tick SMA resistance. Volume has remained relatively lighjt for the bounce, but a break above 37.75 should change that if the bulls can do it. If this is just a flag, as the shape and volume suggest, then a failure to crack 37.75 should set up a retest of the low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 11:03:04 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,204.09, DIA $107.98, QQQQ $37.70

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 11:03:48 AM

The OEX's climb looks bear-flag-ish. A 38% retracement of today's range is at 576.63 and the 50% retracement is at 577.08, and bears want to see a breakdown before the OEX retraces more than 50% of the day's range.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 10:57:35 AM

Six (6) sell program premiums since firs one noted. QQQQ $37.68 -0.78% here

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:53:31 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:45:25 AM

TNX is holding below its highs in the 4.2% area, up 2.7 bps at 4.185% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:42:19 AM

Volume is declining on the bounce so far. The short cycle will remain bearish within the bearish 30 and 60 min channels so long as price holds below the 37.73-.75 QQQQ resistance line: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:41:47 AM

The TRAN has dropped back below 3600, but remains above the 30-sma, an average that appears to have been supporting it over the last three trading days.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:34:51 AM

Advdec line continues lower. So does the OEX, having now confirmed the H&S on its 15-minute chart, setting up a 572.50-ish downside target. There's a hurdle, though, and it comes in the form of potential Keltner support at the OEX's current 575.50-ish level. Bears want to see the OEX plunge below that level, or at least turn down again on any bounce before it reaches higher that 577.35-577.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:33:54 AM

37.60 QQQQ support being tested here, current low 37.57. QQQQ is bearish below 37.75. The daily cycle will be printing sell signals on a close at or below these levels, targeting the 37.05-.10 level for starters.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 10:31:30 AM

TRIN 1.02 -8.10 .... QQQQ $37.71 -0.71%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:30:01 AM

Leading economic indicators -.3% vs. -.2% expected. Prior revised up from +.2% to +.3%.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:22:58 AM

Earlier today, the TRAN pushed right up to the 50% retracement of its decline off the late-December high, and then promptly fell back, slightly negative now and just above 3600. It's being supported by that 3600 level and also by the 38.2% retracement of that same decline, down at 3596.23. It's spanned the two today.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:20:25 AM

The OEX tests the neckline for its H&S on its 15-minute chart, too. If confirmed, that H&S sets a downside target of 572.50, a target that's close to the 572.25 one set by the Keltner channels if 575.61 is breached on a 15-minute closing basis. The neckline for the OEX's H&S is at the 576.35-ish level. The advdec line is diving, too, giving some slight support to the bearishness on price behavior, but we still have to wait for confirmation and be willing to be wrong. Those who entered try-it-and-see-if-works bearish plays Tuesday near the high got a scare yesterday as the OEX tried for a new high, but didn't quite make it. Remember, though, that nothing drastic has happened and that declines might be minimal with bulls salivating over fresh new highs oh-so-close. This H&S could be soundly rejected, as the RUT yesterday rejected a regular H&S on its 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:20:16 AM

The slice through confluence and lower channel supports tagets 37.73 support, which is 127% below yesterday's range, bouncing as I type. With the 30 min cycle oscillators rolling over from a lower high, anything less than a break back above 37.87 should see the decline continue. On the 30 min chart, 37.60 QQQQ is next support below which the daily cycle sell signal will at last issue. A break below 37.60 targets 37.05-.10 support on the daily chart.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 10:15:07 AM

Jonathan .... will you be profiling a trade in the QQQQ today?

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 10:14:38 AM

"Pop and drop" ... more evident in the QQQQ.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:14:34 AM

QQQQ is testing yesterday's low with a downside violation of the 30 and 60 min channel supports- this is where the bulls should be trying to push back.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:14:23 AM

The Russell 2000 closed its morning gap and heads lower, back below the neckline of its inverse H&S.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:12:29 AM

SOX coming down to test the neckline of its H&S on the 15-minute chart, at about 432.85.

Jane Fox : 2/17/2005 10:23:14 AM

The Ad line is making new daily lows as the VIX makes new daily highs. The TRIN is just lolly-gagging in its neutral band although is moving up slightly.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:11:27 AM

First Keltner support is not holding for the OEX. Next Keltner support is near 577, of course, and then at 577.76.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 10:10:55 AM

VIX.X 11.41 +2.79% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.75, 10.91, Piv= 11.18, 11.34, 11.61

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:10:00 AM

There have been days lately, Mark, when I would give anything to see a stop-running push at the expected time, and then we have days like yesterday when they come out of nowhere.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:09:39 AM

Nymex crude is up .125 at 48.45 here, TNX lower still to 4.183%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:08:50 AM

37.92 support is being cracked here, next support 37.87 QQQQ. This is the larget intraday sell candle since yesterday's open.

Jane Fox : 2/17/2005 10:08:30 AM

Linda lately I have noticed the VIX and the AD line support each others' moves in that the VIX falls as the AD line climbs. These two have been leaving the TRIN out of the picture particularly when it is in its neutral band.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:07:11 AM

The Nasdaq is again attempting to push above up out of the symmetrical triangle (inverse H&S?) on its daily chart, and is again not quite successful. TRIN is certainly not encouraging bearish hopes, though. I'm not as accustomed to watching TRIN.NQ as Jonathan is, but it is headed higher, although still considerably below yesterday's level.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:07:00 AM

QQQQ chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 10:06:40 AM

Ten year yields are dropping, down to a 3 bp gain at 4.188%. QQQQ is down as well, now flat at 37.98 and breaking the rising trendline off the 1:30 PM low yesterday.

Mark Davis : 2/17/2005 10:06:29 AM

I was just thinking the same thing Linda. Say, we've totally forgotten about your stop-running push lately, haven't we?

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 10:05:47 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,209.76, DIA $108.42, QQQQ $38.01

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 10:04:28 AM

VIX is climbing; TRIN is diving. Hmm. Maybe Jane will shed some light on this.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 10:22:08 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 9:59:02 AM

Some much for being stingy: The Fed has just followed up with a whopping 8B overnight repo, for a net 7.5B gain on the day. That money could reinforce 4.2% resistance on the TNX, or range support for equities, or some combination thereof.

Jane Fox : 2/17/2005 9:57:14 AM

Leading Indicators at 10:00.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:57:06 AM

The OEX's three-minute chart suggests that nearest support is just below, from 577.85-578.26. A fall below that support confirms the lower high on the five-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 9:56:46 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Note: EBAY sale of one (1) and stop adjustment on other to $3.00.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:54:34 AM

RUT is in double-top territory on the intraday charts, with yesterday's late-day high at 640.59. Bulls want to see a quick and sustained push over yesterday's late-day high. Bears want to see a rollover now or at least see any pop quickly reversed.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 9:52:22 AM

Swing trade sell bullish call alert ... selling one (1) of the two (2) EBAY April $40 Calls (XBA-DH) at the bid of $4.60.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:47:53 AM

RUT hasn't topped yesterday's high, but certainly is close. Bears want a quick pullback; bulls, a sustained push above yesterday's late-day 640.59 high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 9:46:27 AM

eBay (EBAY) $43.34 +0.67% Link .... on a post-split basis, bulls no longer have the stock's PnF chart showing a "buy signal". I'm going to follow with some trade instruction, but will sell one (1) of the Apr $40 Calls (XBA-DH), then hold the other one (1) with target of $47.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 9:45:01 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:44:35 AM

It's possible to see this SOX formation as either a potential H&S or a bearish right triangle. Link Cut off some of those lower shadows and you can even redraw it as a possible neutral triangle. Whatever it is, the SOX is trying to break to the upside, possibly challenging the appropriate 440 right-shoulder level if that's a H&S. Bears want to see a rounding down somewhere near 440; bulls want to see a push back above the 200-week sma, with that push sustained.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 9:43:01 AM

Ten year treasury yields have backed away from 4.2% resistance, TNX currently up 3.5 bps at 4.193%. Session highs printing in equities as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:40:11 AM

RUT has not yet topped yesterday's high.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:39:08 AM

The TRAN again tests the neckline of its inverse H&S on the 60-minute chart. This is a not-quite-as-trusted continuation form, of course. The TRAN has not broken out, but is only testing. A confirming move above yesterday's 3631.98 high would be needed, but as I've been detailing lately, the TRAN has significant overhead resistance from 3650-3700, depending on whether you're looking at a 25% envelope above the weekly 200-ema or a 30% envelope above the monthly, both of which appears to be the points of major swing highs for the TRAN, highs from which steep descents have been seen over the last six or so years. The TRAN can always break out of its pattern, but historically, it's overbought on both a weekly and monthly basis.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 9:37:42 AM

QQQQ has flipped back below the 7200 tick SMA support line, arresting the upticks in the 30 min and short cycle channels. This remains a chopzone betweem 37.92-38.15.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:34:59 AM

The Nasdaq tests the top of its symmetrical triangle on its daily chart. No breakout yet, and certainly no confirming move above Tuesday's high. Bears want a rollover here or at least below the 50-dma.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:33:52 AM

The Russell 2000 has gapped back above the neckline of an inverse H&S on its 60-minute chart. Bulls do not want to see the Russell 2000 back below that gap level; bears do.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:32:43 AM

Now the expected OEX bounce from that Fib level and 10-minute 21-ema. Bears want to see a lower high, bulls a higher one.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:31:53 AM

The OEX heads back toward the 10-minute 21-ema at 577.92, with the 50% retracement of the last swoop higher yesterday afternoon at just below that level, at 577.84.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 9:30:27 AM

ebay (EBAY) $43.30 +0.58%% ... 2:1 split this morning. Option adjustment information at this Link (Adobe .pdf format)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 9:26:22 AM

Refreshable US Dollar Index chart at this Link to add to your bookmarks.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 9:24:18 AM

The Fed has a relatively modest 4B in 14-day repos and 2.5B in overnight repos expiring today, more evidence of the more stringent open market activity I've been mentioning. 6B in new 14 day repos has just been announced, leaving 500M in left unaccounted for. I await the 10AM announcement for the remaining shorter term repos for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2005 9:24:48 AM

Pre-market most actives ... DNDN $8.63 +7.45% (positive study for its prostate cancer vaccine), SEPR $65.53 +11.73% (hires investment banker to review options), ASTM $3.10 +8.01% (expands bone graft clinical trial), GNTA $1.56 +15.56% (earnings)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 9:15:17 AM

QQQQ is holding above the midpoint of the 30 min cycle channel, with 7200 tick SMA support at 38.03. The short cycle is on the verge of a new upphase, and any strength at current levels that persists for 10 minutes into the cash session will see both it and the 30 min channels turn up. Currently, channel support lines up at 37.87, resistance first at 38.15 then at 38.20.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:15:12 AM

Crude prices may be particularly important today in light of the import prices data. The January rise was about double the expected rise, but if crude is factored out, import prices rose only 0.2%, with food prices falling. However, it's difficult to factor out those crude prices, particularly with crude higher today. They key may be whether there are signs that crude prices might be topping again (recent rhetoric from OPEC and other oil-producing countries doesn't support that idea) or headed higher. Just my opinion.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 9:04:03 AM

Wednesday, the OEX fell to support, pushed up, but was knocked back from its late-day stop-running move. Its 15-minute chart shows a potential H&S, but one that might take up to a day to finish forming a right shoulder before traders know whether it will be rejected or confirmed. For clues, watch the SOX, sporting a H&S of its own, with the SOX confirmation level at about 431.90 or perhaps slightly above. You'll want to see whether the SOX confirms or rejects its similar formation, either leading or corroborating a move in other indices. Also watch the RUT, breaking through a neckline for an inverse H&S (60-minute chart) on Wednesday before falling back to the neckline, leaving a long upper shadow behind. Similarly, the Nasdaq broke to the upside out of a large symmetrical triangle on its daily chart only to fall back inside. Bears want to see a confirmation of the SOX's H&S on the 15-minute chart and RUT and COMP rollovers. Bulls want to see the SOX sustain values above the 200-week sma at 442.51, and see the Nasdaq sustain values above its 50-sma.

With WMT having reported before the open (trading higher in pre-market) and with the RLX having moved up to test the top of the gap from January, watch the RLX, too. And, as if all that isn't enough, watch crude, with some rhetoric this morning supporting prices.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 8:33:02 AM

Bonds have declined on the news, with TNX up 3.6 bps, clearing 4.8% resistance and heading for the 4.2% line at 4.195% currently. QQQQ is up .09 to 38.07, while gold is down .50 to 426.7.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 8:31:03 AM





8:30am U.S. JAN. EXPORT PRICES UP 0.7%




8:30am U.S. 4-WK INITIAL CLAIMS OFF 4,000 TO 311,750


Jonathan Levinson : 2/17/2005 8:01:23 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1211.25, NQ 1546, YM flat at 10837 and QQQQ +.07 at 38.05. Ten year treasuries are down .109 to 112, gold is up .80 to 428, and crude oil is up .225 to 48.55. Silver is up .057 to 7.31.

We await the 8:30 releases of export prices ex-ag, prior .1%, import prices ex-oil, prior .5%, initial claims, est. 315K, and at noon the Philly Fed, est. 17.5.

Linda Piazza : 2/17/2005 6:47:57 AM

Good morning. Overnight, the OECD released growth forecasts for countries around the globe. For 2004, the OECD kept US and eurozone forecasts steady, but revised Japan's drastically lower, from the former 4.0% down to 2.6%. Forecasts for Germany and the U.K. were eased lower. The OECD sees German growth recovering from last year's Q4, gaining 0.5% in both Q1 and Q2. U.S. growth is seen at 1.0% and 0.7% in Q1 and Q2.

With the Bank of Japan keeping rates steady as expected and investors still mulling the impact of the worse-than-expected GDP, the Nikkei eased Thursday. Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. European markets climb, with many stocks moving on stock-specific news. Our futures have flat-lined overnight. As of 6:39 EST, gold was up $1.30, and crude, up $0.24. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

On the heels of a weaker-than-expected GDP, indicating a technical recession, Japan's banking and property stocks weakened. A report Wednesday had shown that condominium supply might exceed demand, and higher crude prices are also of concern. Rising crude costs sent oil company stocks higher, however. Tech stocks trimmed early gains by the close. Also Thursday, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady.

Beginning Wednesday, the Nikkei had dropped back into the gap from last Thursday's close to last Friday's open, testing that gap. It opened lower within that gap, rose to test the top and dropped back again. It closed lower by 18.96 points or 0.16%, at 11,582.72.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted declined 1.16%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.10%. Singapore's economy grew a faster-than-anticipated 7.9% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. The government's tax breaks to drug manufacturers prompted a surge in production of drugs, helping to create that faster-than-anticipated growth. The Straits Times climbed 0.42%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.34%, and China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.21%.

Most European markets climb. In the U.K., January's retail sales rose a slightly better-than-expected 0.9% month over month, although December's had been revised slightly downward. Year-over-year, sales rose 3.9% from December's 3.2% rise. On continental Europe, earnings and announced share buyback plans from Credit Suisse and ING sent those companies higher and improved sentiment. Oil refiner Total, pharmaceuticals company Merck KGaA, insurer Zurich Financial and German truck and printing machinery manufacturer Man all benefited from their earnings reports, while engineering group ABB and Air France-KLM eased after theirs. Lehman Brothers raised its 2006 earnings estimate for Commerzbank, sending that company's stock higher, but Morgan Stanley cut its rating of France Telecom, sending that company's stock lower.

As of 6:39 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 16.40 points or 0.32%, to 5,069.60. The CAC 40 had climbed 6.84 points or 0.17%, to 4,015.86. The DAX had climbed 4.25 points or 0.10%, to 4,373.02.

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