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OI Technical Staff : 2/18/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 5:43:22 PM

Look at those 30,000; 30,000; 25,000 blocks of QQQQ at $37.36 going by. 05:28:17-05:28:56. Getting long before the ECN shuts down? Tuesday's DAILY Pivot levels ... $37.08, $37.22, Piv=$37.39, $37.53, $37.70. Next WEEK's Pivot levels ... $36.48, $36.91, Piv= $37.70, $38.13, $38.92.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 5:15:31 PM

Excellent discussion on "Junk Bonds" on CNBC and how they can act. Discussion included inflation, but also growth of economy that brings inflation and benefit to "Junk Bonds."

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 5:10:34 PM

When my QCharts data feed went down, maybe they were fixing the decimalization problems for some of the option chains! Everything looks fine (bids) for my currently profiled option trades.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 5:35:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Expired options are noted and these losses/gains will be tabulated in my trade blotter as closed out. Today's Activity .... Swing trade bearish puts for two (2) of the Dow Diamonds DIA April $106 Puts (DIA-PB) at $1.15. Swing trade bullish calls for two (2) Forest Labs FRX May $45 Calls (FHA-EI) at $1.55. Day trade bullish the underlying shares of Forest Labs (FRX) at $42.10. Stop has been raised to $42.10, target will be initial profile of $42.80. This trade is carried over as FRX didn't trade $42.50 prior to close. Swing trade long the QQQQ at $37.31 in extended session (third-time another charm?), stop $37.20, targeting $37.65. On Thursday, I was looking long the QQQQ $37.05-$37.25 and today's low of $37.26 (see 12:12:59) has me thinking a bid for Monday and some post-expiration relief. Today's high of $37.57 also notable, and test for Monday. Weekly trade blotter at this Link This weekend's Ask the Analyst column, I also use the discussion of buy/sell program premius, to tie in the day trade longs from Alcan (AL) and Ipsco (IPS) as a way traders can look around for trades.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 4:30:36 PM

Bullish swing trade 1/2 bullish/long alert ... for the QQQQ $37.31, stop $37.20, then target a pop to $37.65.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 4:03:35 PM

I've lost my data feed. If FRX trades $42.50, then day traders will close out. CNBC reported that MRK was exploding to the upside. IF FRX doesn't trade $42.50, then DAY TRADERS will want to hold over the weekend. Should get further upside action Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:46:35 PM

FRX whips back higher $42.34 and session high. PACX might have gotten caught short.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 3:45:36 PM

QQQQ has flipped back to the pennant apex but failed to clear it, printing another lower high. The picture remains bearish below 37.57, bullish above. Because the 30 and 60 min cycle upphases have gone nowhere, I expect the next downphase to be a doozy. Today's low volume is a wildcard, however- if the bounce is merely delayed, then any strength above 37.57 should have followthrough on Tuesday. Failing that, however, the bias will remain bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:45:18 PM

FRX $42.20 +1.27% .... action at $42.30-.31 (DAILY R2 $42.28) has me thinking the BEST a day trader will do into the close would be $42.50 and BLUE #6

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:38:58 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert for Forest Labs (FRX) to break even.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:35:38 PM

FRX plenty of action at the offer... bidder up at $42.30

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:32:22 PM

FRX Specialist offers stock at $42.30 and bids $42.29

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:29:40 PM


Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:28:28 PM

3M (MMM) $85.71 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:24:43 PM

FRX $42.21 +1.27% ... session high

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:25:53 PM

eBay (EBAY) $42.34 -0.91% ... not budging near session low. WEEKLY R1 here at $42.27.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:22:38 PM

QQQQ $37.40 ... what do you think Jonathan?

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:21:48 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.68 -0.03% ... session high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:21:17 PM

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) 311.54 +1.37% ... moves above WEEKLY R1 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 3:17:02 PM

QQQQ is breaking rising support off the intraday low. Next support is at the session low of 37.26: Link . Without volume, however, the breakdown is less reliable- akin to a trendline break afterhours. If the session low is reached and does not hold, then next support is 37.05-.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:15:51 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:05:04 PM

VIX.X 11.35 -3.56% ... just ticked a session low of 11.32. TRIN 0.59 -50.83%

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 3:03:23 PM

Earlier this morning I flashed that June Gold (gc05m) had traded above the $433.30 level. That was a "bad tick." Session high has been 432.00. Traders that are benchmarking or trading off of the April contract that Jonathan watches, might be seeing similar trade.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 2:56:29 PM

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this link Link Maybe a trade in here Jonathan? How do those Keltners work for picking up on divergence?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 2:54:57 PM

Daily chart of April gold at this Link . This week represented the first break of the descending resistance line off the December high. A break either below 424 or above 430 should be directional, though the daily cycle favors the upside here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 2:49:13 PM

QQQQ's respected a 5 cent range for the past hour. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 2:43:03 PM

Sina Corp. (SINA) $26.29 +13.45% ... bugger moved off that $25.00 didn't it?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 2:36:04 PM

QQQQ has yet to reach the halfway mark to yesterday's volume, with just over 1 3/4 hours left of today's session. A bounce is trying to build here, with price testing the upper descending expanding wedge resistance, but without volume, I'm not hopeful for a break past 37.57 even if the 37.42 line gets cleared. Still bullish potential in the 30/60 min upphases, but it's been a terrible showing so far today. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 2:16:43 PM

Looking over the intraday charts, the 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are both in gear to the upside and, despite the persistent weakness, have yet to reverse lower. If the low pre-holiday volume today is responsible for dragging out this upturn, then we should see a strong upside blast through 37.57 on Tuesday morning. So far, with QQQQ languishing in the low 37.40's, the day highs still feel like they're far overhead.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 2:14:06 PM

I've been called away and will likely be away for the rest of the afternoon. The OEX is now rising to test the five/minute 100/130-ema's, up to 575.03, also the level of the 38.2% retracement of the drop.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 2:05:32 PM

If you're not reading both sides of the Monitor, you should know that Futures writers are warning of the low TRIN level. Bears should take note and have their profit-protecting plans in place just in case.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 2:16:35 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 2:00:49 PM

Volume continues to trail lower for QQQQ, even as it prints above the 7200 tick SMA line. The descending expanding wedge should be bullish, but it's a rare pattern with which I have little experience. Other than for scalps within this range, it still looks like noise to me below 37.57. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 2:00:15 PM

The TRAN hasn't gone much of anywhere this week, with a perfect doji so far for this week. No wonder: it's trapped between the 50-dma's resistance, combined with the 25% envelope surrounding the weekly 200-sma, representing an overbought condition, and the support of the converging 30- and 100-sma's. The 30-sma was an important average as the TRAN climbed last fall into the late-December high. With important support just underneath and important resistance just above, both bulls and bears in transportation stocks have something to applaud and something to fear.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 1:55:45 PM

Bullish day trade entry point alert ... for Forest Labs (FRX) $42.10 +1.03%

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 1:51:33 PM

Indicative of the afternoon's trading? The SOX did not break out of the symmetrical triangle at the bottom of its range in any direction. Instead, it's trading straight out sideways, following the flattening five-minute 21-ema, now at 427.81 with the SOX at 427.79.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 1:48:19 PM

I've redrawn the Fib bracket I'm watching on the OEX to encompass the lower low seen while I was gone this morning, and also to start it earlier, at yesterday's high rather than the last five-minute high. The 38.2% retracement of that wider stop is at 574.93 and the 50% at 575.77. Bears would like to see the OEX break down before retracing higher than 575.77. The 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX will be facing Keltner resistance at each of those two levels, but also suggests that bears would really rather not see 15-minute closes above 575.08.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 1:58:40 PM

Swing trade bullish call option alert taking two (2) of the Forest Labs FRX May $45 Calls (FHA-EI) at the offer of $1.55. Targeting $52.00 FRX $42.02 +0.83% here. Here's bar chart of FRX with bullishly fitted 38.2% and conventional (BLUE) retracement. PnF observations also added. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 1:44:56 PM

ECbot and Nymex have closed for the holiday weekend, crude oil at 48.35 and April gold at 429.10. Ten year treasuries are closed as well, with TNX going out higher by 7.5 bps at 4.26%,, right on the line. Volume is light for QQQQ at 37.53, and I don't expect it pick up much as the session wears on. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 1:39:26 PM

The Nasdaq tests the bottom support of a flag-like shape on its daily chart. If you dial down to a 60- or 120-minute chart, that same shape looks a bit like a continuation-form H&S. Flag or H&S, I wouldn't consider it confirmed until a break of the 100-ema at 2051.21 or maybe even until a break below last week's low. The Nasdaq has already been testing the 100-sma, a bit higher at 2055.60.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 1:36:27 PM

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) 309.95 +0.85% ... fitted retracement chart that I've shown in the past from FRX bullish profiles. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 1:32:11 PM

Crude currently higher by $0.91.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 1:28:00 PM

Depending on how you draw the top trendline of the SOX's symmetrical triangle at the bottom of its drop on the intraday charts, it has either minimally broken over that trendline and now hugs it, or else it's just testing it, sending candle shadows up to pierce it, but not maintaining values above it. In either case, it's not shooting up higher just yet, but this should be watched. Any upside break could be just an attempt to form a rising flag shape, so watch the shape of any rise, too.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 1:20:23 PM

The advdec line still drops. That's what bears want to see.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 1:19:10 PM

TRIN 0.59 -50.83% ... sombody's buying the heck out of things... DIA $107.43 -0.26% .... but it isn't having much impact at this point.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 1:11:11 PM

The OEX is coming back again to test its five-minute 21-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 1:12:40 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 1:02:20 PM

48.40-.425 is shaping up as important resistance for Nymex crude- looking bullish here: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 12:55:53 PM

The OEX has an inverse H&S at the bottom of its range on the five-minute chart, with the OEX now at the 574.50-ish neckline. Note that the five-minute 100/130-ema's are just above, however, at 574.90 and 575.23, respectively, and that a neckline test does not necessarily guarantee a confirmation. Still, this signifies that bulls are gathering their forces, making an attempt. Watch.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:55:40 PM

Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $64.90 -0.19% ... March quarterly expiration "Max Pain" theory is currently calculated at $63.00. (So I develope a slightly bearish bias perhaps) Hmmm.... $63.00 is down at that next zone of support from $62.52-$62.95. Hey... the IWO more volatile than the DIA. If DIA gets down to its "zone of support" some of these observations may become important.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 12:53:55 PM

Amazing lack of action in ten year note yields (TNX) below the 4.26% resistance line- TNX barely budging from 4.256%.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 12:53:06 PM

The SOX now attempts an upside break through the symmetrical triangle at the bottom of its range. Stop-running time approaches, so be careful.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:52:17 PM

Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $64.83 -0.30% ... see that 26,000 share trade? Right in the "zone of support" from $64.78-$65.00. February "Max Pain" is $65.00 ($1 increments)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 12:48:55 PM

QQQQ is holding on the descending 7200 tick SMA, the latest bounce failing from a lower high. This is premature failure for the 30 min cycle upphase is verging on a trending move, and is very bearish in the context of the daily cycle downturn. While we can expect corrective bounces over the next 2 weeks, the daily cycle downphase should remain the dominant theme. QQQQ remains bearish below 37.57. Link

Tab Gilles : 2/18/2005 12:43:47 PM

$SOX chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:40:55 PM

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) 310.06 +0.89% ... WEEKLY Pivot 307.44, WEEKLY R1 at 310.99, WEEKLY R2 313.22.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 12:39:50 PM

So far, the SOX has resisted breaking through bottom support on the symmetrical triangle at the bottom of its range.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:39:05 PM

Bullish update cancel part of order alert ... let's cancel the FRX buy pullback $41.75 entry point. My thinking is that if we're in a pinned option expiration trade, then why enter in middle of morning range? For day trade, would rather try and play upside momentum. Go LONG, but only on trade at $42.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:34:25 PM

Freddia Mac (FRE) $62.60 -2.03% Link and Fannie Mae (FNM) $58.85 -2.93% Link ... likely bringing weakness to banks today. Concern over Mr. Greenspan urging curbs to slow growth. Note: that's a 52-weeker for FNM and FRE looking very vulnerable on triple bottom sell, break of bullish support trend.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 12:31:45 PM

The SOX coils at the bottom of its move, threatening ever so slightly to break below the bottom support of that symmetrical triangle as I type. Would need to see a new LOD to confirm a downside break, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 12:31:36 PM

TNX is back to a 7 bp gain, hanging at 4.255% and just below the 4.26% line. Despite the Fed's large repo drain today, the weakness in bonds isn't sufficient to clear that important confluence zone. However, with the daily cycle upphase just getting started, there's potential upside as high as 4.32% resistance on this run if 4.2% support holds.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 12:27:54 PM

The TRAN was climbing when I left, heading up toward a test of yesterday's high and the 50-sma. It never made it up to yesterday's high, coming up about four points sort, and now is off the day's high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:27:19 PM

Pfizer (PFE) $25.65 +2.31% ... I would be going crazy with March $25 strikes

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 12:26:49 PM

Back to find that the OEX did dip toward 572, and now climbs in another attempted "V" shape recovery. It's maintaining values above its five-minute 21-ema, now at 573.74, and attempts a move up toward the 100/130-ema's, now at 575. and 575.35. So far, however, it has not yet produced a higher five-minute high. It is, however, easing as I type down toward a retest of the 21-ema, now at 573.72, to see if that holds as support. Bears do not want it to hold. Bulls do.

Tab Gilles : 2/18/2005 12:27:07 PM

PFE Pfizer and the drug sector on the issue of COX sector, the FDA basically gave these drugs the same rulling as cigarettes. Yes you can sell them...BUT, you have to give a strict warning to as what the risks are. You can expect litigation lawyers to work into numerous lawsuits for sure! Now, does this mean that the stock market has factored all this into the price? Just take a look at Altria (MO) chart and how it is at decade highs. Link So is PFE a longterm buy here? Could be! Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:21:14 PM

TRIN 0.68 -43%

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:18:40 PM

Bullish day trade long setup alert .... for Forest Labs (FRX) $41.96 +0.69%. Go long on a pullback trade at $41.75, or a break to session high at $42.10. Stop goes at $41.40 to begin with target of $42.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:14:33 PM

Pfizer (PFE) $25.70 +2.55% ... surging

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:14:04 PM

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) 310.55 +1.05% .. rocketing higher in last 10-minues.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:12:59 PM

QQQQ $37.43 -0.10% .. nice bounce from $37.26.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 12:11:37 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link QQQQ bounced from the lower 30/60 min channels, 3 cents south of the 37.29 support I noted, but it's all noise below 37.57. If QQQQ can't clear that level today, then Tuesday's session will be set up for a more serious decline. With the daily cycle rolling over this week, 37.05-.10 support should come easily into view if the bulls can't retake 37.57 today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 12:11:44 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:58:39 AM

VIX.X 11.67 -0.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:58:21 AM

TRIN ... 0.72 -40% ... isn't budging.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:56:03 AM

CBOE Internet (INX.X) 185.63 +0.40% ... was strong early, but giving back some gains here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:55:11 AM

Jonathan ... will you be trading the QQQQ today? Any trade plans set up? QQQQ $37.30 -0.45%

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:53:38 AM

I don't know about "Pfizer" suddenly being the problem. Brokers (XBD.X) 146.95 -1.80% ... session low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:52:31 AM

Pfizer (PFE) $24.80 -1.03% ... FDA Panel saying it has determined Celebrex significantly increases the risk of cardiovascular risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:50:57 AM

Pfizer (PFE) $24.82 -0.95% ... quick reversal lower. May be reason for that "sell program premium"

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 11:46:52 AM

Current 30 min and 60 min channel supports are lined up at 37.29. If that doesn't hold, then 37.05-37.10 will begin to look much more likely on this run, and the daily cycle downphase that kicked off yesterday will be off to an auspicious start.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:47:09 AM

Swing trade bearish put alert ... taking two (2) of the DIA April $106 Puts (DIA-PB) at the offer of $1.15. ($0.95 x $1.15) DIA $107.30 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 11:44:34 AM

The weak short cycle upphase has degenerated into a sideways chop, with the 30 and 60 min channels also drifting sideways. If this is the bounce expected from those cycles, then it bodes very ill for bulls when the next downphase kicks in. It's too early to rule out a bounce/upphase on these longer cycles, but from here it's nothing more than a pause in yesterday's selling. QQQQ is bearish below 37.57.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:43:17 AM

Sell Program Premium

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:41:12 AM

Sina Corp. (SINA) $24.97 +7.72% ... most active options ... Mar $25 calls (3,831:8,937), Feb $25 Calls (1,321:8,568), Mar $22.50 Calls (1,044:3,955)

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:38:48 AM

Sina Corp. (SINA) $24.98 +7.72% Link ... chatter that company might be in play as takeover candidate. Hmmm... spec longs can buy it (18 O candidate). If in play, then near-term $25 calls might be worth a shot.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 11:30:10 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link . Very weak corrective short cycle upphase so far.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:29:05 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 11:13:48 AM

Crude oil is strong today, March crude currently +1.42% at 48.225, current high 48.5.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:06:30 AM

BIX.X getting whacked again today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 11:05:38 AM

Bonds have pulled up off their lows as 4.26% resistance held on the TNX, TNX currently +6.3 bps at 4.248%. April gold is up off its 427.1 low at 428.40, -.3, with HUI and XAU now fractionally negative.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:19:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/18/2005 11:03:20 AM

TRIN is falling below the neutral band and printing a daily low at 0.69

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:01:44 AM

Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 11.81 +0.33% ... 60-minute interval chart of VIX.X with similiar time coverage as I show for the DIA. Link In early February, I thought I saw a comparison chart of SPX/VIX, which to me (Jeff Bailey) suggested a BEARISH move taking place in the SPX.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 10:43:30 AM

The last dip bounced from the 7200 tick support line for QQQQ, but the price continues to struggle with the 37.57 line. The higher bounce suggests a rising triangle, which should be bullish, but the short cycle upphase is so far behaving correctively. The 30 min channel is trying to turn up, but it won't be able to breathe if price can't clear 37.57 soon. So far, this morning's action is looking more bearish than bullish to me, because a bounce was due. Volume has been declining on the bounce- also bearish. Bulls need to clear 37.57. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 10:31:26 AM

Getting ready to leave. It looks to me as if the OEX is trying to form into a wider bear flag--perhaps almost too wide, as it's not narrow in relationship to the decline that immediately preceded it. However, I've snapped a Fib bracket on that last decline, off yesterday's last five-minute high and last test of the five-minute 100/130-ema's. The 38.2% retracement level is now at 574.83, tested this morning, and the 50% level at 575.28. Bears would prefer that the flag, if that's what it is, break down before that 50% level, but certainly at the 61.8% level, even now with the 100/130-ema's at 575.72 and 575.99.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 10:37:15 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.44 -0.24% ... here's a 60-minute interval chart with my conventiional (BLUE) and bearish fitted 38.2% (PINK) that I've shown before, and I've overlaid the QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels. Link I'll show this chart again with past trade profiles overlaid. Get an idea of what was profitable, what wasn't, and try to figure out WHY? $106 isn't going to be a cakewalk for bears. Remember all those failed head/shoulder tops, where the "right shoulders" were violated?

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 10:22:10 AM

So far, the OEX is turning down below the five-minute 21-ema, and now bears want to see the OEX reaching a new LOD. They also want to see some TRAN weakness. Otherwise, short-term bearish plays may be living on borrowed time.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 10:17:41 AM

QQQQ is grinding its way higher above the 7200 tick SMA, currently up .05 at 37.52. The short cycle oscillators are no longer oversold and have ticked up, kicking off an upphase as I type. A break above 37.57 will confirm strength here, and the 30 min cycle upphase should kick off 5 minutes after that break if it occurs from here. The 30 min cycle downphase is currently stalled with price above the 7200 tick SMA, currrently at 37.48.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 10:15:32 AM

I'll be leaving for a couple of hours this morning, leaving in about twenty minutes. I'll keep posting until then.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 10:15:01 AM

The OEX is now minimally above its five-minute 21-ema, perhaps headed up toward the five-minute 100/130-'s at 575.86-576.12 or perhaps just having just overshot that resistance a bit. Bears want to see this charge higher slow down and do some backing and filling. It's looking a bit too strong, too "V" shaped for great comfort, but no real damage has been done. . . pulling back some as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 10:07:10 AM

The TRAN's strength should be bothering bears, but keep a watch as/if it tests yesterday's 3640-ish high and the 50-sma at 3647.17. If the TRAN should roll down again, that would be more reassuring.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 10:04:58 AM

Here's what I'm watching on the OEX this morning: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 11:10:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 10:00:45 AM

Ipsco (IPS) $49.09 +1.95% ... steel stocks may be warming early.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:59:52 AM

The OEX rises to test Keltner resistance and the five-minute 21-ema, with that average at 574.54 and Keltner resistance a little lower.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:57:30 AM

The RLX, the retail index, still tries to steady on its 30-sma. The RLX is pulling back after a test this week of its 50-sma and the top of the gap down from January.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:55:59 AM

The TRAN is less than 10 points below yesterday's high, still moving higher as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:55:28 AM

VIX.X 11.55 -1.86% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.94, 11.38, Piv= 11.64, 12.08, 12.34

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:54:53 AM

The OEX 7-minute Keltner channel chart shows firs resistance at 574.20, a little lower than the five-minute 21-ema. By one neckline version, yesterday's late-day H&S confirmation (continuation-form, five-minute chart) shows a downside target near 573.35, so the OEX has already approached that downside target and is trying to firm up near it.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 9:54:06 AM

The Fed has replaced yesterday's big 8B overnight repo with a 3B 5-day repo, for a net drain of 5B today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 9:52:47 AM

Michigan sentiment 94.2 vs. exp. 95.5, prior 95.5.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:52:42 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,199.66, DIA $107.34

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 9:51:20 AM

Still awaiting the UMich Sentiment reading.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:49:07 AM

February Expiration Reminder alert just a reminder to check your accounts for any options that may be expiring today. Don't want any surprises on Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:47:48 AM

DIA 107.48 -0.22%

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:47:12 AM

TRIN 0.96 -20.00% ... below DAILY Pivot and 1.00

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:46:58 AM

The OEX's five-minute 21-ema has now dropped to 574.69. Bears want continued five-minute closes below or at that averages.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:46:22 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.44 -0.24% ... pricing out the DIA Apr. $106 puts (DIA-PB) and looking for an entry point on a pop to $107.79-$107.90.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:45:12 AM

The OEX is still falling toward the 571.80-572 level that's now predicted by the 15- and 60-minute Keltner charts. Bears, have profit-protecting plans in place, though, preparing for a possible strong bounce, tepid bounce, or even a straight-down plunge through that level. Know what you'll do in each case.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 9:43:31 AM

April gold failed again at the 429 level, currently down .60 at 428.10 on light contract volume of 289 contracts, with HUI down .44% at 210.04 and XAU -.48% at 95.98. Ten year notes remain weak, TNX up 7.3 bps at 4.258%. Bond bears want to see TNX close today north of the 4.26% resistance line.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:39:59 AM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,199.98, DIA $107.37

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:39:26 AM

Bifurcation again. The TRAN moves higher, charging up toward its 50-dma at 3647.79, as well as other resistance there. Strange, since the TRAN looks so overbought on both the weekly and monthly charts by some measures.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:37:51 AM

NASDAQ-100 Index stocks that were sold the most during yesterday's sell programs were CECO, APCC, TEVA, CHKP, ATYT, CSCO, CTAS, DISH, DLTR, QCOM, GENZ, JNPR, LLTC, MSFT, SPLS, ERICY, MOLXE. (Source: HL Camp & Company)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 9:36:12 AM

QQQQ is retesting the premarket low at 37.39, with the TRINQ up 1.64 and the short and 30 min cycle oscillators oversold. The 30 min cycle channel is still falling, with support down to the 127% fib line at 37.23 currently. I'm still expecting a corrective bounce from current levels, but with Michigan sentiment due in 12 minutes, it's far from a done deal below 37.50.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:35:42 AM

The OEX's five-minute 21-ema is now at 575.00, and bears want to see the first retracement of the day stopped at that level, continuing a pattern from yesterday afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:36:08 AM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) stocks that were sold the most during yesterday's sell program ... HON, CSC, CSCO, MWD, EK, HIT, HNZ, PEP, JNJ, TYC, LEH, WFC, MO, MRK, MSFT, RSH, BDK, MER, JPM, CL, ORCL, HD, VZ, AIG. (Source: HL Camp & Company)

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:32:05 AM

SOX headed lower this morning.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:31:33 AM

No gap down. Waiting for what happens next.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:30:05 AM

Lehman 20-year iShares (AMEX:TLT) also among this morning's most active. $90.50 -1.28%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 9:27:38 AM

No reprieve for treasuries, with front month ZN bonds down .51 to a session low of 111 31/64 and TNX up 8.1 bps to 4.266%, a 1.94% gain this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:28:53 AM

Pre-market most actives ... MCIP $21.57 +4.04%, NVDA $27.65 +8.38%, SYNC $3.02 +19.8%, SIRI $6.01 +0.33%, AKAM $11.93 +10.8%

Jeff Bailey : 2/18/2005 9:23:18 AM

June Gold (gc05m) $33.30 +0.53% ... edging above $432-$432.35 zone of resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 9:18:03 AM

Session high for April gold here at 429.20, +.50.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:16:49 AM

Forgot to mention a couple of points I'd meant to mention: There's that pesky opex Friday tendency to pin indices by mid-morning, a long weekend ahead of us, increasing geopolitical risks, and potential paralyzed inaction as bulls eye new highs oh-so-close and bears think "double-top."

However, if as one of the futures writers mentioned, markets gap lower and plunge, that plunge I referred to in my 9:10 post, that we would not get the often-seen opex Friday action.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 9:15:26 AM

Several spikes to the 37.40 level, but each has dojied back up with QQQQ currently unchanged at 37.47. Because the 30 min cycle is bottomy, the odds don't favor an extended decline to first support in the 37.05-.10 area from here- such would require a downside trending move, which is certainly possible but less likely. Intraday bulls need to see price break and hold above 37.50 at a bare minimum for at least 10 minutes past the cash open. If that fails to occur, 1st channel support below 37.40 is at 37.29.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 9:10:52 AM

The OEX closed at its low of the day yesterday, with the five-minute 21-ema providing resistance on each bounce. That average is now at 575.14, with the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 576.22 and 576.43, respectively. As long as that continues, the bears are in charge. The 60-minute Keltner chart shows that the OEX is vulnerable down to 572-572.75 until and unless it starts showing 60-minute closes above the Keltner lines currently just above 576. Even that 60-minute close only stabilizes the OEX. Sixty-minute closes above 578 are needed to turn the smallest Keltner channel higher again.

Bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 572. The 60-minute chart shows that a plunge through that level and 60-minute close below the Keltner lines currently there will set up a much lower downside target-to 562-but there's a strong likelihood of a steadying or bounce attempt from 570-572, especially if the SOX is hitting its 200-sma/-ema's at the same time, and if other indices are hitting potential support levels. Bears would then hope to see a rollover from somewhere below 576-577 for a new entry, perhaps sometime next week, but they would need to see corroborating evidence that such a play was a decent-odds play, since no real damage will have been done if the OEX bounces from 570-572. If there's a straight-down plunge through 570-572, then 572-574 might become resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 8:38:31 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 8:32:14 AM

Bonds have plunged on the news, TNX up 5.8 bps to 4.243%, clearing 4.2% resistance. QQQQ is down to a 2 cent gain at 37.49, with euro and CAD futures dropping. Session lows for ES and YM futures as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 8:31:17 AM



8:30am U.S. CORE PPI UP 2.7% Y-O-Y, 9-YEAR HIGH




8:30am U.S. JAN CORE PPI UP 0.8% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. JAN. PPI UP 0.3% AS EXPECTED

Jonathan Levinson : 2/18/2005 7:28:23 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1203.5, NQ 1527, YM 10779 and QQQQ +.11 at 37.58 off a low of 37.43. Gold is down 1 to 427.7, silver down .037 to a session low of 7.321, ten year notes down .125 to 112 7/8, and crude oil is up .275 to 47.825.

We await the 8:30 release of the PPI, est. .3%, core PPI, est. .2%, and at 9:45, Michigan sentiment, est. 95.5.

Linda Piazza : 2/18/2005 7:02:57 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei gained despite early tech weakness after the U.S.'s book-to-bill number. Other Asian markets were mixed, although more traded higher than lower. European markets currently move higher, with reassuring economic news helping to overcome tech weakness in early trading. As of 6:27 EST, gold was down $1.10, and crude, up $0.22. Our futures are higher. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei climbed throughout the Friday session, closing higher by 77.40 points or 0.67%, at 11,660.12. Overnight the chief economist for the OECD characterized Japan's economy as in a period of stagnation rather than recession. With January's U.S. book-to-bill number declining to a disturbing 0.80, semi-related stocks headed lower in early trading. Some retailers gained, however, ameliorating index losses. Retailer Ito-Yokado Co. revealed plans to form a new company to overhaul its clothing business. By the end of the day, TDK, Toyota, and other large exporters were higher. It was a day when merger news dominated, with Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings settling on their stock exchange ratios for the new bank that will be created by their October merger. In addition, venture capital firms Daiwa Securities Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group announced that they may merge in October.

Other Asian bourses were mixed, but with more climbing than declining. The Taiwan Weighted closed higher by 0.71%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.19%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.22%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.86%. China's industrial output for January rose 8.9%, termed its slowest growth rate in three years. Unadjusted, production rose 20.9%. The Shanghai Composite closed lower by 1.35%.

European markets are mixed, but the three watched most commonly in this report all trade higher despite a weak start due to tech weakness. The FTSE 100 appears weaker than the other three despite having only one tech stock, but weakness in BP and drugmakers hold the FTSE 100 back. CSFB downgraded BP to a hold rating. In addition, the U.K.'s Council of Mortgage Lending reported that January's lending for home purchases declined 29% month-over-month and 30% year-over-year. Banks involved in mortgage lending dropped in early trading, but home builders were mixed.

Figures released today shows that the eurozone's December Industrial Production expanded 0.5% over the previous month's and 1.0% over the previous year's. Production of intermediate goods, non-durable and durable consumer goods rose, but production of capital goods fell. The capital goods component disappointed, as did the overall contraction during the quarter, but much of the news making up this number was already known and it wasn't considered market moving. In Germany, January's CPI fell 0.4% as had been expected, reassuring that inflation was under control. In France, preliminary Q4 GDP rose 0.8% over the previous quarter's, revised higher from the previous 0.7-0.8% estimate. One source terms this the strongest performance since early 2001. This data and the breakdown of component gains pegged France as a strong performer among eurozone countries. Also of interest, the French treasury announced that it would, as rumored, offer a 50-year bond. Other than some early tech weakness, stocks appeared to be reacting to individual news, such as Euro Disney's soaring gain after announcing that its euro offer from January was oversubscribed and Danone's more modest increase after being raised to a buy rating by Merrill Lynch.

As of 6:43 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 4.50 points or 0.09%, at 5,061.90. The CAC 40 had gained 23.99 points or 0.60%, to trade at 4,029.49. The DAX had climbed 14.96 points or 0.34%, to trade at 4,384.64.

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