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Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 1:55:03 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.15 and set for program selling at $-0.90. OEX stocks that were sold the most during Tuesday's sell programs executed by program trading firms were (VIA, AMGN, BDK, BUD, JPM, CSC, USB, UTX, MSFT, WFC, SBC, CSCO, VZ, HD, WMT, GM) NDX stocks that were sold the most during Tuesday's sell programs executed by program trading firms were (VRTS, CECO, AMGN, APOL, GRMN, BBBY, NTLI, RIMM, FAST, YHOO, GENZ, JNPR, LAMR)

Tab Gilles : 2/23/2005 1:20:59 AM

On Friday I posted this chart indicating selling on the $SPX ... Link

$BIX chart breaking down, bearish. Link

$NASI/$COMPQ Those that follow my charts and indicators know that I use the $NASI. Just reversed the other day. Link

Newmont Mining (NEM) Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:19:48 AM

April Crude Oil (cl05j) is down 8 cents, or -0.15% at $51.34.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:19:06 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05h) is down 2.50, or 0.16% at 1,499.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:18:34 AM

e-mini S&P (es05h) is up 0.50, or 0.04% at 1,185.25.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:17:55 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) trades 82.60, up 0.19 points from its 03:00 PM EST mark.

OI Technical Staff : 2/22/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 5:51:16 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link Official March Crude Oil (cl05h) settlement was $51.15, up $2.80, or 5.79%. I've rolled over to April contracts for Crude Oil, Unleaded and Heating Oil. Closing Internals at this Link Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link Special Note: I don't have an intra-day chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) for today. I know (from time/sales) what the 09:05-03:00 low and close was, but I do not know what the intra-day high was. Considering golds strong gains earlier this morning, I'm certain the 83.57 trade was on Sunday, or very early Monday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 4:36:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's activity ..... deep breath... Swing trade bullish stopped out of 1/2 bullish position in the QQQQ at $37.00 ($-0.31, or -0.83%) Day trade carry over sold the bullish position in the underlying shares of Forest Labs (FRX) at target of $42.80. ($+0.70, or +1.66%) Swing trade stopped on the remaining one (1) bullish call in eBay EBAY Arpil $40 Calls (XBA-DH) at $3.00. ($+1.10, or +57.89%) Swing trade sold two (2) of the 3M MMM April $90 Calls (MNZ-DR) at $0.70. Stop goes at $1.15. Swing trade short 1/2 bearish position in the Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) at $33.50, stop $34.40, targeting $31.75.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 4:34:57 PM

3M (MMM) $84.06 -1.74% ... 139 contracts in those MMM April $90 Calls (MNZ-DR) crossed the wire at 15:34:06 for $0.40. Remember this should we get a chance to buy these calls back at $0.05-$0.10. At 15:34, shares of MMM were trading $84.35 ($84.35 + $0.40 = $84.75)

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 4:00:35 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $118.61, DIA $106.06

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:58:50 PM

What do you do if you're in a bearish position as the close approaches? As always, much depends on a trader's entry, emotional bearing, and trading style. I'm watching the SOX having left a long, long upper shadow today, which is never a bullish event, but the SOX has so far held above its 200-ema and -sma. I'm watching the TRAN having traded straight down to the bottom of its broadening formation on its daily chart, threatening to break to the downside through that bearish formation, but sitting just above its 100-ema. The advdec number has been so low and the declines so steep that it might be time for at least consolidation if not a small bounce, but perhaps consolidation that first sees some continuation of today's decline. I think I'd take partial profits if I wanted to keep a toe in the water and full profits if I were the type who liked to stand aside at key levels and see what happened next, hoping I could get back in.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 3:58:08 PM

The 30 min, 60 min and daily cycles remain in gear to the downside for QQQQ, with the 30 min oscillators only now approaching oversold territory. With current daily bollinger support at 36.66 and next confluence support at 36.60, the descending 30 min cycle oscillators, that area's looking like the most logical place to expect a 30 min cycle bottom. Since the decline began this morning, the price has not managed to exceed the 7200 tick SMA resistance for longer than 2 minutes. That level is currently at 36.92, and QQQQ will remain bearish below it.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:51:44 PM

I think it's actually the two-minute 21-ema rather than the three-minute that's capping the OEX's climbs now. That average is at 568.12.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:45:36 PM

The OEX's three-minute chart has been showing bullish divergence since about 12:30, not that it yet has shown any benefit to bulls.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:42:20 PM

Other than the just-overhead resistance, the 15-minute Keltner chart shows the next firm resistance at 569.10 and 570.08.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:41:12 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 82.43 -1.34% ... I'm showing the 03:00 tick at 82.41, with 09:05-03:00 session low of 82.40.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:39:31 PM

The OEX is rising to test the three-minute 21-ema at 568.44.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 3:38:53 PM

QQQQ failed at 36.88 on the weak bounce attempt and is testing 36.80 as I type. The 7200 tick SMA is down to 36.95, with the afternoon's descending intraday trendline also at 36.95. QQQQ remains bearish beneath that level. The Nasdaq TRINQ has risen to mere neutral territory at .80 here, and like the 30 min cycle oscillators, has more room to run.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:31:40 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.18 -1.51% ... all components now negative. HD $40.27 -4.16%, MRK $31.54 -3.25%, MO $63.32 -2.43%, PG $52.38 -2.09% .... MMM $84.30 -1.44%

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:45:18 PM

A lot of sell program premiums today ... program trading curbs kick in (today)if the Dow Industials (INDU) 10,628 -1.45% were to trade down 200 points at 10,585.22. Should trading curbs ever be put in place, this does NOT mean we won't get buy/sell premiums, but institutional program trading would be halted. Program trading curbs are put in place to allow HUMAN intervention/reasoning/emotion to then have greater impact on trade. Remember, computer trade levels and sell without reason/emotion.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:26:23 PM

The OEX's three-minute 21-ema is at 568.71, and so far that average still caps bounces. Wouldn't be surprised to see a late-day short-covering bounce send the OEX above that average, but neither would I be surprised to see the OEX just fall into the close, as Keltner 30- and 60-minute charts suggest it might do. Depends on who is most fearful into the close, ahead of tomorrow's economic reports.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:24:04 PM

The OEX sits on the 19.1% retracement of the rally off the August low. This Fib level has had some resonance in the OEX's trading, as has the nearby 30-sma. So far, the OEX has not been bouncing from these levels, but it is attempting to hold steady there. Not successfully attempting that steadying just yet, but attempting nonetheless.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:22:16 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,185.51, DIA $106.20

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:21:43 PM

Extreme Networks (EXTR) $5.91 -3.42% ... cracks $6.00 support.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 3:20:21 PM

Daily chart of April gold testing former support going back to December from below: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 3:15:36 PM

QQQQ's testing the 36.88 support level from a week ago Friday. The 30 min and 60 min cycles continue to point south, and if this level doesn't hold, 36.65 support should come quickly into view. The short cycle is oversold, and the bearish Keltner break should bring in some kind of support here, but if QQQQ can't regain 36.96 rather quickly, the QQQQ should continue lower all the way to the close.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:15:05 PM

The OEX is headed down toward the 566.89 downside target predicted by the 30-minute Keltner chart, with that also being possible next support from which the OEX might attempt a bounce. Bears, be wary of a potential bounce at the end of the day if other bears decide to take profits.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:13:26 PM

QQQQ $36.87 -1.31% ... darts below WEEKLY S1. Session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:12:13 PM

Networking Index (NWX.X) 213.58 -0.11% ... edges red.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:11:33 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 427.26 -0.10% ... edges red.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:07:25 PM

The OEX's three-minute 21-ema is now at 569.21. The OEX has been following that lower since about 11:00 today. Bulls need to see a change in that trend before there's any hope of a stronger bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:07:11 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,187.60, DIA $106.35

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 3:10:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 3:01:22 PM

The OEX is below the 50-sma by about a point, currently testing the 30-dma. The 30-dma has had some resonance for the OEX, so again, it's at a prime bounce point. Just no bounce. The 60-minute Keltner chart still shows potential vulnerability to 562.25, but the 30-minute chart shows that 567 will be next test of support.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 2:57:45 PM

The advdec line still continues lower, at -3313 as I type. That's getting to be an extreme level, heading into the range last seen on January 3, 4 and 5. It's not a contrarian sign in the sense that we options traders can necessarily say, it's hitting these levels and so the selling is overdone and we should be going long. Someone going long the OEX on January 3, when the advdec line was also approaching -3300 issues, wouldn't have been a good idea. However, it is a sign that bears should be following the OEX lower with their stops if not taking partial profits on the way down.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 2:51:20 PM

March Crude (cl05h) $51.25 +5.89% (30-minute delayed) ... just received upside al_rt at conventional 80.9% retracement of $51.30.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 2:59:39 PM

Swing trade short 1/2 position alert ... selling short 1/2 bearish position in the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.51 +0.47% here, stop $34.40, target $31.75. WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $32.22, $32.78, Piv= $33.66, $34.22, $35.10. SOX.X 429.25 +0.35% here.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 2:43:26 PM

The OEX did not bounce strongly before the close of the last 60-minute period, so that it did create a new breakdown signal, but only by a slight bit. The breakdown was a significant confirmation of that new 562.29 downside target. This 60-minute chart suggests that 569.68-570.25 will be closest resistance, and the OEX needs to pull itself back above that level on 60-minute closes to undo the new breakdown signal that was created. The OEX needs to show 60-minute closes above 572-572.81 before it halts its smallest Keltner channel's descent and above 574.68 before it begins to turn that smallest channel higher again. It looks easier to fall than to break through all that resistance, but we just have to see what develops next.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 2:36:01 PM

QQQQ broke back to the morning's 36.96 low and is bouncing. So far, this is only a short cycle bounce within the ongoing 30 and 60 min cycle downphases. The intraday descending trendline has resistance at 37.15, with the 30 min cycle top at 37.22. Any failure at or below 37.15 will confirm the intraday trend, while a break above it will set up a test of the 37.20-.22 level, above which bulls will have another shot at a more meaningful bounce. But with resistance very strong at 37.57-.60 and the daily cycle downphase so far solid, the bias remains in the bears' favor.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 2:27:20 PM

My early thoughts that the OEX might consolidate for a while near 575 today before deciding which direction to head were based on a possible H&S showing up on its 60-minute chart, neckline roughly congruent to the 60-minute 100/130-ema's. I had thought that the OEX might consolidate for a while at the right-shoulder level, but instead, it built a stunted right shoulder and then headed right down. That's a change in trend, because lately, as we've all seen these potential H&S's build, bulls have been able to drive the indices up above the right shoulder level and negate them, or else bounce the indices immediately after confirmation and invalidate them then. That's not happening today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 2:29:37 PM

Bullish call stop alert for eBay, Inc. and the one (1) remaining EBAY April $40 Call (XBA-DH) at $3.00. ($+1.10, or +57.89%) EBAY $41.32 -2.73% here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 2:23:35 PM

Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $63.87 -1.60% ... session low here. Bearish if it should close below this level.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 2:22:26 PM

The OEX break of its 60-minute 100/130-ema's turned out to be prophetic today. The OEX needs a strong bounce soon to avoid setting up that 562.24 downside target.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 2:19:06 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.50 -1.21% ... sitting on WEEKLY S2 here. Should go MONTHLY Pivot before any resumption of meaningul strength.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 2:12:21 PM

The OEX's 15-minute chart was right when it predicted vulnerability to lower values for the OEX, but the OEX moved even lower than that chart suggested it would. (See my 1:44 post.) The OEX teeters on the edge of confirming another breakdown signal, setting up a much lower downside target, to about 562.26, but it hasn't done it yet. Those in bearish positions should be at the least following the OEX lower with their stops, and some more conservative traders might want to begin stepping out of positions, taking partial profits as the OEX heads lower. From this vantage point, it looks likely that the OEX would now find the 572-573 level to be firm resistance, but we just never can tell what will happen as traders position themselves ahead of tomorrow's numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 2:17:30 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 2:06:39 PM

Session high for gold here at 436.30, HUI +3.11%. Nymex crude is just off its higher high, currently +4.85% at 51.375. I find the persistence of QQQQ above the morning lows despite the steady march higher in oil to be impressive. Note that the "techy" QQQQ and Nasdaq aren't getting slammed as hard as the more industrial Dow and SPX- I believe that the rally in oil today is why.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 2:01:11 PM

QQQQ failing below descending 7200 tick SMA resistance: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 1:57:08 PM

Minor new low for the OEX. I dialed down to the three-minute chart to watch the OEX's behavior with respect to the 21-ema. The OEX has been turning down at that average, currently at 570.92.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 1:55:01 PM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,191.40, DIA $106.67

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 1:53:57 PM

Remember the weekly TRAN chart I posted beginning two or three weeks ago, showing the one instance since mid-1997 when the TRAN broke above a 25% envelope surrounding the 200-week ema? Every other time, the TRAN hit a major turning point at the top or bottom of that 25% envelope surrounding that average, and about three weeks ago, it began approaching that upper envelope again, looking overbought on a weekly basis. (By the way, it's also overbought on a monthly basis by means of a 30% envelope surrounding the 200-month ema.) Here's the chart with the envelope, showing what's happening: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 1:49:12 PM

Session high for euros here at 1.3254, +1.36%.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 1:44:08 PM

Here's what 15-minute Keltner charts show about the OEX: long-legged candles corroborate the effort the OEX makes to rise from the 570 level, but the OEX still looks vulnerable down to 569.89 unless it can break above (on a fifteen-minute closing basis) the trying-to-firm resistance at 571.43-571.77.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 1:42:19 PM

Slightly higher low on the OEX's five-minute chart, with the OEX still rising up toward the 571.50 level of the five-minute 21-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 1:41:22 PM

Perot Systems (PER) $12.86 -14.38% Link ... hit lower after company said Harvard Pilgrim decided to switch to a new processing platform as part of a marketing alliance it formed in August with United Health Group (UNH) $86.82 -2.5% Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 1:35:58 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,191.28, DIA $106.72

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 1:29:35 PM

No pullback for gold or silver, with April gold up 7.5 at 435.90, HUI +3.03% at 216.24 and XAU +2.94% at 99.13. Crude oil also remains firm, +4.39% at 51.15, just off its intraday highs.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 1:26:15 PM

The OEX's five-minute 21-ema has now dived down to 571.79, and that's where bears would like to see the OEX find first resistance, but with the 60-minute 100/130-ema's proving their importance over the last week, the OEX might rise all the way up to test those, with those at 573.58 and 572.71, respectively. A move much above that questions the whole H&S scenario, however, perhaps invalidating that formation that the OEX confirmed this morning, depending on just how much higher the OEX might travel.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 1:25:49 PM

Back in time to see QQQQ bouncing from a nominally higher low at 37.01 and now challenging the declining 7200 tick SMA resistance at 37.17. A failure to break above it here will suggest a more aggressive test of the lows on the next decline, while a break above will meet with more serious resistance at 37.27.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 1:22:22 PM

The OEX's current rise does look like a potential bear flag rise, but we had one of those surprise us this morning with the volatility surrounding the 10:00 numbers. I'm still watching the SOX, too, bouncing as I expected from above that neckline of its potential H&S visible on the 60-minute chart. There's a hint of a symmetrical triangle forming on the SOX's 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 1:14:49 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 1:01:23 PM

The OEX is trying to steady at 570. I would expect some sort of distribution pattern to form as the OEX attempts to climb off this level, but the possibility of a continuation form or reversal form can't be ruled out, either, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 12:56:00 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.77 -0.95% ... 60-minute chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 12:40:59 PM

The SOX is now presenting the possibility of a sharp-right-shouldered H&S formation on its 60-minute chart, with the neckline at about its 60-minute 100/130-ema's, too, with those at 424.60 and 422.20. There's a problem with this scenario for the SOX, however, and that's the presence of the 200-sma and -ema at 419.08 and 422.17. Just below is the 50-sma. I would expect at least a bounce attempt from that neckline area for the SOX. If not . . . well, then things don't look too pretty, do they?

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 12:38:54 PM

The OEX 570 level is a potential bounce point for the OEX, of course, although that level extends down to about 569.50, I believe. A bounce from that level is likely to find resistance at those 60-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 12:38:15 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,191.20, DIA $106.65

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 12:31:20 PM

No sooner did I type that last entry about the TRAN than it started dropping, along with other indices. The OEX obviously did not continue the Keltner-style bullish divergence that it had been showing and did drop below the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages now likely to provide resistance. As I mentioned earlier today, the OEX had since the morning of 2/17 been trading between the support of those 60-minute averages, now at 573.62 and 572.72, and the resistance of the 21-ema, now at 575.00. Sooner or later, either the resistance or the support was going to break. I had expected it to take several more hours at least, possibly through the rest of the trading day, for one to break, but the break occurred sooner than I expected. The OEX has now confirmed a H&S on that 60-minute chart, and without a quick (on a 60-minute basis) bounce back above those averages, things are looking too healthy for the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 12:31:08 PM

Stepping away for 45 minutes here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 12:25:29 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,192.36, DIA $106.76

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 12:20:58 PM

Session lows for Dow and SPX futures as QQQQ breaks below 37.27. Current 30 and 60 min channel support are at 37.17, but those levels should continue lower toward the session lows as the 30 and 60 min cycles resolve their differences to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 12:20:20 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,195.73, DIA $106.92

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 12:18:14 PM

Bonds remain weak negative with TNX holding above 4.26%, currently +1.4 bps at 4.274%. Gold is holdings gains, up 1.56% at 435.10 with HUI +3% at 216.19 and XAU +3.15% at 99.32. April crude is up 4.34% here at 51.125, current session high 51.175.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 12:16:40 PM

Sell Program Premium .. SPX 1,196.39, DIA $107.14

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 12:15:23 PM

The TRAN still isn't doing much of anything, still trapped inside a broadening formation on its daily chart, with that formation's boundaries now roughly bound by the 100-ema at the bottom and the 50-sma at the top: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 12:05:14 PM

On the OEX's five-minute Keltner chart, the OEX has been showing Keltner-style bullish divergence each time it hits a swing low since Friday morning. If that's to continue, the OEX might not show five-minute closes much below 573.06 on this currently swing low. Unfortunately for those trying to predict next direction, it also showed Keltner-style bearish divergence on this morning's swing high. If that's to continue, a bounce might not see five-minute closes much higher than 575.30. One or the other of those is eventually going to be invalidated, but no clue yet as to which it will be.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 12:00:32 PM

The RLX dropped heavily today, breaking below the support of the bear flag in which it had been climbing, but it's currently trying to bounce back above that flag's support, roughly congruent with the daily 100-ema at 435.81. The RLX is at 434.81 as I type. The RLX's behavior has been important in both OEX declines and rallies lately, so that OEX bulls or bears want confirming strength or weakness in the RLX.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 11:56:57 AM

The SOX tests the five-minute 21-ema at 433.70, finding support at that level, so far at least. Bulls want to see that support continue to hold. On the 60-minute chart, the SOX has completed two candles of a potential evening-star formation, so that bulls do not want the current 60-minute period's close to be below the midpoint of the first hours' range, with that midpoint at 430.37.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 11:52:34 AM

The OEX still tests the 60-minute 100/130-ema's. Bulls don't want to see a drop to a new LOD and especially not a drop below Friday's 572.23 low, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 11:50:55 AM

Despite the flaggy rise off the 37.27 line for QQQQ, the TRINQ at .39 suggests very strong buying pressure at these levels. The 30 min channel has rolled over and is in a so-far weak downphase opposed to the ongoing 60 min channel upphase. If the price can get back above the 37.40 level, I expect that the 30 min cycle will whipsaw back up and line up a retest of 37.57-.60. If it fails, or if it breaks below 37.27, then the 60 min channel will stall out, suggesting a move lower and retest of session lows. This mid-level is a chopzone, and with a weak short cycle upphase opposed to a 30 min downphase opposed to a 60 min upphase, the signal-to-noise ratio is currently very low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 11:50:05 AM

Forest Labs (FRX) $43.21 +2.12% Link ... one of five stocks highlighted as "cheap blue chip" in Forbes. (BMC, BSX, CSCO, UVN)

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 11:43:07 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 11:45:32 AM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.52 +7.14% .. sudden reversal back higher from $4.10. Reminder: Company to hold its Q4 and end of year financial results for fiscal 2004 on Thursday at 11:00 AM EST. Details at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 11:35:44 AM

National Semiconductor (NSM) $19.70 +4.06% ... higher on chatter company set to guide higher on quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 11:34:00 AM

CNBC confirming data feed problems for the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) ...

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 11:33:54 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes again.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 11:33:05 AM

The OEX is right back to the 60-minute 100/130-ema's now, with those averages at 573.68 and 572.76. Since the morning of 2/17, the OEX has been bouncing between the support of these averages and the resistance (all on a 60-minute closing basis) of the 60-minute 21-ema, currently at 575.40. That needs to change before the OEX can truly break out one direction or the other. I've kind of had a bounce-around thesis for today, but wouldn't be greatly surprised if the bouncing around didn't take the OEX higher than it's actually traded so far today. I see this as a choppy kind of trading period, though, so I'm not certain that buying a test of the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, with that test currently occurring, would be a great idea. So far, that 21-ema is holding as resistance, so there's not a lot of upside to be gained if it continues to do so.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 11:25:36 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $16.22 +15.96% ... just got off the phone with my father. He's placing a stop at $15.50 and targeting $20.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 11:18:00 AM

A 38.2% retracement of the SOX's rally off the day's low is at about 432.45 and a 50% retracement is at about 430.75. Bulls want to see the SOX hold above that 50% retracement level, while bears want the opposite. The SOX's decline, while not as steep as the rise, nevertheless does not look flag-ish yet, but perhaps more bearish in shape. It's still got time to reform into something that looks more like a bull flag pullback or a coiling or something different in shape, though.

Tab Gilles : 2/22/2005 11:40:07 AM

"GLOBAL SELLING OF DOLLAR"

South Korea's central bank said on Monday it planned to diversify its currency reserves, which are the world's fourth largest, into a greater variety of currencies.

I entered 2005 bullish on 3 sectors SMH, XLE & PPH. I added GOLD in the last month as the charts pointed to a lower dollar.

On Friday 12:43 post I presented this chart of the $SOX. Link Let's see if the SOX continues to rally. Link

Oil continues to rally as $50 BBL is being tested. I had mentioned that oil legend T. Boone Pickens had mentioned on CNBC that he expected oil to see $60 before $40 in '05. Guess he's correct so far. Murphy Oil continues its climb and I'm holding to that 10-ema stop. Link Link

GOLD is testing Fib at $433. Link Several gold and dollar charts annotated. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 11:16:48 AM

Nymex crude is up 1.85 here, +3.78% at 50.85. Gold is up 7 at 435.40, silver +.093 at 7.51, XAU +2.88% at 99.06 and HUI +2.66% at 215.48.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 11:15:09 AM

The 3610-3612 level is now looking like resistance for the TRAN, but the 3585-ish level has been strong support for a week, too. The TRAN is now at 3592.65, perhaps headed down for another test of that support.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 11:12:59 AM

Back in time to see QQQQ having broken 37.40 and testing the rising 7200 tick SMA here at 37.30. The 30 min cycle upphase is stalled after peaking early. It will take a break below 37.22 to turn the channel down, which, if such occurs, will target the 37.12 level, followed by the session lows. Current 60 min channel support is 37.12.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 11:06:11 AM

The OEX is breaking through support shown on the five-minute charts, both Keltner and 100/130-ema's, but I'm still worried that this is just part of an oscillation near the current level and slightly higher while the OEX sorts out direction.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 11:04:28 AM

Here's the Keltner outlook for the OEX. I see the trapped between mid-channel resistance on the 15-minute chart and mid-channel support on the five-minute chart, although that support may be weakening as I type. These also roughly ring this morning's gap, lending importance to the top and bottom of the gap level as possible resistance and support now. The OEX's 60-minute Keltner chart suggests that bulls want to see 60-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 574.81 and preferably above the one currently at 575.55 as a start, while bears would like to see 60-minute closes below 574.81 and preferably lower. There's fairly strong 60-minute support from 571.42-572.70, however, and without a strong sell program to get the OEX below that support, it may be slow going and tough to break through it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 11:11:19 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 11:32:26 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... let's sell two (2) of the 3M April $90 calls (MNZ-DR) at the bid of $0.70. One is covered by the LEAPs long, while the other is NAKED. 3M (MMM) $85.65 +0.11% here. VIX.X 12.14 +8.58% (sell some inflated premium)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 10:59:45 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 10:58:57 AM

So far, the neckline of the inverse H&S and the 15-minute 100/130-ema's are holding as resistance for the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:54:05 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) 107.59 -0.18% ... with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 10:53:17 AM

Potential inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, with the neckline roughly congruent with the 15-minute 100/130-ema's: Link Earlier today, I said that if the OEX bounced, I wouldn't be surprised to see it spend some time at the now-current level before it decided on next direction, but this setup may change things. I'm just returning to the screen after having stepped away for a few minutes, and will turn next to look at the Keltner charts and see what they suggest.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 10:44:23 AM

The short cycle oscillators are maxxed out here for QQQQ, while the 30 min oscillators are still rising. 37.57-.60 resistance stopped this latest blast, but if price doesn't break hard below 37.40 for starters, this pause should remain just that- not a reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:36:21 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) 107.37 -0.4% Link ... did get test of WEEKLY R1 at the open. HD $40.70 -3.16% Link MRK $31.90 -2.17% Link provide early drag. SBC $24.41 +0.05% Link INTC $24.21 +0.79% Link early strength

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 10:30:12 AM

QQQQ finds first ressitance at 37.41. 37.27 is short cycle confluence and should act as support now. If 37.41 breaks, look for next resistance at 37.57-.60, with stiff resistance above at 37.82. That 37.82 should not get broken given the daily cycle downphase in progress since last week.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 10:28:50 AM

Before I step away, I wanted to note that the OEX's climb no longer looks like a bear flag in shape, and that it's now testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 574.57 and 574.78. Bears want the OEX to roll over here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:27:38 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 436.54 +2.06% ... blasting above WEEKLY Pivot as if not there.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 10:27:22 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:34:12 AM

Dow Jones US Steel Index (DJUSST) 181.02 +3.65% Link ... on fire.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:33:31 AM

Helen of Troy (HELE) $26.21 -16.47% Link ... maker of consumer hair/skin care plunges after lowering Q4 expectations. Forecasting sales of approximately $120 million. Company had previously forecasted sales between $136-$146 million.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 10:22:32 AM

SOX charging higher again. Bears don't want to see this continue, especially since the SOX came down far enough that its dip might have been considered a retest of the 200-ema this morning. I imagine some bought the dip for that reason. Those dip-buyers and scared shorts have propelled the SOX higher, but now stronger hands need to continue the bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:21:49 AM

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) ... not sure if my QCharts are correct, but there looks to be a standing bid at 1,500.00 all morning. (5-minute chart intervals)

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 10:20:29 AM

TRAN coming up to test 3600 again.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 10:17:01 AM

The OEX still looks as if it's forming a potential bear flag, although it's just now trying to break through that to the upside. A 574.50 test looks possible.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:33:04 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $17.30 +23.83% Link ...

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 10:14:27 AM

QQQQ is breaking 37.12 resistance, breaking the prior 37.14 high as I type. The 30 min channel is in its upphase- now bulls have to hold it. Look for resistance in the 37.40 area. 37.10-.12 should now act as support.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:13:05 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 429.88 +0.50% ... bids green. WEEKLY Pivot most likely resistance after QQQQ traded DAILY S2.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 10:07:55 AM

The OEX looks as if it's trying to form a bear flag to rise and test resistance, although it's not entirely clear yet that the OEX will be successful. I've snapped a Fib bracket from Friday's last five-minute high to today's low, with the 38.2% retracement at about 573.99 and the 50% at 574.38. Bears want to see that flag break down before it retraces much higher than 574.38.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 10:06:05 AM

Advdec line still dropping.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:03:24 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,196.81, DIA $107.23

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 10:11:28 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 10:01:10 AM

Headlines:

10:00am U.S. FEB. PRESENT SITUATION 116.4 VS. 112.1

10:00am U.S. FEB. CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS 95.7 VS. 100.4

10:00am U.S. FEB. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO 104.0 VS. 105.1

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 9:58:26 AM

VIX.X 12.30 +10.01% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.76, 11.00, Piv= 11.43, 11.67, 12.10.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 9:55:25 AM

The advdec line isn't looking good this morning, so that those already in bearish positions are feeling pretty good about its levels, but let's see what happens as a result of the number about to be released.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 9:54:03 AM

The Fed has just announced a massive 11.5B overnight repo for a net add in that amount.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 9:52:00 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 9:52:30 AM

QQQQ has just broken 37.05, testing 37.10-.12 resistance now.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 9:51:30 AM

The Fed's last open market operation was Friday's 5 day repo expiring tomorrow. With no repos maturing today, any fresh repos announced in the next few minutes will be net adds. Awaiting the 10AM announcement.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 9:51:11 AM

The OEX attempts to steady, if not exactly bounce yet. First resistance just overhead near 573.60, next from 574.15-574.55, near the bottom of this morning's gap.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 9:50:05 AM

Gold and silver are holding their gains, with April gold up 5.80 here at 434.20. HUI is up 3.07% at 216.33, finally clearing the 212 level, while XAU is up 3.06% at 99.24.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 9:45:16 AM

Bullish DAY TRADE Exit alert ... for Forest Labs (FRX) $42.97 +1.55% ... as it exceeds my day trade target of $42.80. Note: This is for the DAY TRADE.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 9:42:17 AM

The TRAN is below 3600, but not below the 30-sma at 3577.93. The TRAN is still mired in a consolidation zone and isn't telling us much by these movements above and below the 3600 level, except that it's consolidating near it. We already knew that.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 9:40:24 AM

The SOX dropped oh-so-close to the 200-ema this morning before bouncing back to the opening level, with a low of 423.71 and the 200-ema at 422.13. The 200-sma is at 419.06. The SOX at least is seeing a bounce attempt, but let's see if it holds or not.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 9:39:29 AM

Ten year treasuries have recovered off their earlier lows, with TNX pulling back, currently up .6 bps at 4.264%.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 9:38:37 AM

Several sources of potential support come together for the OEX in this 571.60-573 region. This should be good enough for at least a bounce attempt, but it hasn't come yet.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 9:38:05 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $43.80 +3.13% ... nice jump early.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 9:36:10 AM

The OEX's 60-minute 100/130-ema's are at 573.65 and 572.73, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 9:37:16 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert stopped on the 1/2 bullish position in the QQQQ $37.00. ($-0.35, or -0.83%)

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 9:33:53 AM

The OEX did open below the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's, one possibility mentioned in my early morning update. As mentioned then, those averages should now again be considered potential resistance. Bears should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of Friday's low, with bears hoping to see a strong zoom below that level. As mentioned in that first update, however, Friday's low constituted a test of the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, so we might expect at least a bounce attempt from that level unless there is that strong zoom lower. I do expect some volatility this morning with post opex settlement and repositioning ahead of the Consumer Confidence number.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 9:25:47 AM

Swing trade long adjust stop alert ... with the QQQQ $37.04 pre-market, will lower swing trade bullish stop to $37.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2005 9:23:45 AM

Program Trading Execution Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.62 and set for program selling at $-0.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 9:19:28 AM

The drop in equities this morning has QQQQ down to the 37.05-.10 confluence zone, currently trading under it at 37.02 with IB reporting a premarket low of 36.963. This open should complete the bearish move that confirmed with the break of 37.60 support last week. The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are oversold (within the daily cycle downphase that was only starting as of last week) and the 37.05 level is major rising trendline support. Oversold oscillators on trendline support are the best candidates for a bounce in those timeframes, and that's what should occur here. A failure to bounce would constitute a trending move akin to a "crash" in the 30 min cycle. That can occur, but the bounce is more likely.

To the downside, next support is at 36.88, with lighter support at 36.95. If that 36.88 level breaks from here, then the bearish scenario is unfolding and 37.05 will become resistance. Otherwise, look for the 30 min cycle bounce to a lower high within the daily cycle downphase - my guess would be 37.40, and in any case no higher than 37.82. A break above 37.12 should kick off that bullish scenario.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 9:02:57 AM

Ten year treasuries have cleared the key 4.26% resistance level, currently trading higher by 2.3 bps at 4.283%. Bond bears want to see a TNX close north of that 4.26% level.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 8:54:19 AM

This morning's move in gold is on high volume, with Friday's volume for the front-month April contract already exceeded. The current high of 434.80 is not particularly significant, with the more important level at 436. The daily cycle upphase has room to run, but bullish traders will want to see 428-429 support hold. A break below that level would be the first sign of trouble, while a close below 424 would signal a new daily cycle downphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 8:31:47 AM

Due to a serious illness in the family, I may disappear from time to time from the Monitor early this week. I should be here early this morning, however.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 8:29:41 AM

As Friday ended, the OEX had scrambled back above the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's at 575.11, 574.86 and 575.04, respectively. One or the other of those averages had been capping gains since Thursday morning. The OEX had also just confirmed an inverse H&S seen on the five-minute chart, setting an upside target near 577.60. The climb had also looked as if it was a likely bear flag rise, and one that was just then testing a 50% retracement of the decline that immediately preceded it, so that chart evidence was somewhat mixed.

Today, futures are lower. If cash markets open in accordance with current futures levels, it's possible that the OEX could open at or below those five-minute averages and perhaps even at or below the 574.90-ish neckline for that inverse H&S. Doing so risks invalidating the inverse H&S and the short-term bullishness of the late-day push above those averages. It would also drop the OEX below the ascending trendline that had begun forming off the Friday morning low, with that trendline toughly congruent with those averages.

As Keltner charts are configured as of Friday's close, however, the 574.76-574.89 zone looks like fairly firm short-term support, so it will take a strong push to break through it. A gap below it is a different matter entirely, and will transform that potential support area into one of potential resistance. If it does hold as support in early trading, however, the OEX remains trapped below strong potential resistance on the 15-minute Keltner chart, with that resistance at 575.77-575.87 on a 15-minute closing basis and would need to break through that before heading higher. Short-term bulls should have profit-protecting plans in mind for the 576.60-577 zone, and again at 577.60-578. If the OEX can break above those possible resistance zones, it might rise again toward lat week's high, at which profit-protecting plans might again be needed. If the OEX instead rolls over, either from Friday's closing level or from one of those other resistance levels, profit-protecting plans need to be in place at the 60-minute 100/130-ema's at 573.67 and 572.72, with those averages having stopped the OEX's decline on Friday.

I would not be surprised to see an early test of support, of course. After that, any bounce might tell us much about what to expect next, and the lack of a bounce certainly would tell us much. If there is any type of bounce at all, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see some time spent between 575-577.50 before the OEX sorts out its next direction. I'm not certain that bulls and bears have yet sorted out which is stronger, and so could envision a stalemate going on a bit longer if the bulls manage to bounce the indices a bit after testing support in early going. Globally, we've gotten some reassuring economic numbers, but crude above $50.00 would throw a pall over all that. Crude is currently below $50.00. The weak dollar that's causing problems in Asian and European trading might help our exporters.

Remember that we've got some post-expiration settlement volatility to expect in early trading, as well as potential volatility before and after the Consumer Confidence number at 10:00. I'd caution that only aggressive traders consider new positions before that Consumer Confidence number and a settling afterwards, and that those already in positions consider whether they have enough cushion and enough faith in their positions to weather some volatility.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/22/2005 7:51:52 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1196.75, NQ 1504.5, YM 10743 and QQQQ -.31 to 37.04. April gold is up 5 to 433.4, silver +.129 to 7.546, ten year notes down .0625 to 111 27/64 and crude oil up .80 to 48.35.

We await Consumer Confidence for February at 10AM, est. 103.5.

Linda Piazza : 2/22/2005 6:33:40 AM

Good morning. Although our markets were closed Monday, many markets across the globe did trade. In China, January's producer prices climbed 5.8%, the smallest increase in nine months. Tuesday, CPI rose a slower-than-the-previous-month's 1.9%, with both numbers being good news to those who hope the government's efforts to slow the economy are working. Tuesday, the Nikkei dropped, as did many other Asian markets. European markets currently turn lower, too, hurt by dollar weakness and crude increases. Our futures are lower. As of 5:12 EST, gold was up $3.80, and crude, up $1.09, to $50.10. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

In Monday's trading, drug manufacturers led Japanese stocks higher in early trading after a report that Sankyo Co. and Daiichi Pharmaceutical would merge in October and speculation that other drug manufacturers would merge. The Nikkei turned lower Monday afternoon, however, closing modestly lower.

Early Tuesday, earnings reports soured sentiment, but some attribute recent weakness to end-of-fiscal-year domestic selling, too, a trend that night continue into next month. Trust banks have been net sellers for six weeks, with that trend having accelerated in the February 7-10 week. Other data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange show that while Japanese trust banks sold stocks, foreign investors bought them during a nine-week period. Late in the morning Tuesday, the Nikkei touched the flat-line level, but then dropped the rest of the day, closing lower by 53.31 points or 0.46%, at 11,597.71. Some techs gained, but in general, big caps declined.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but more lost than gained. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.58%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.10%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.91%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.15%. Signs this week that China has been successful in cooling down its overheated economy have led some to speculate that the government will ease credit controls, something that the central bank deputy governor has suggested should happen. Tuesday, the government did lay down rules under which the government will cede commercial lenders the right to go into the fund management business. China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.93%.

Most European markets turn lower this morning, with the weaker dollar hitting exporters. Some car manufacturers turned lower. Earnings reports have been mixed, too, as have economic numbers. Germany's Henkel, manufacturer of Dial soap, dropped heavily after its earnings report, making its ability to meet goals somewhat dependent on currency issues. Germany's 0.2% decrease in 4Q GDP was pegged a transitory weakness. The country's 2004 deficit/GDP ratio, was revised down to 3.7% from the previous 3.9%, with that revision being good news, but still keeping Germany above the 3% deficit limit expected by the eurozone's Stability and Growth Pact, a pact that may have grown somewhat weaker recently. France's CPI fell 0.5% month-over-month, with the number lower than expectations, and also reported consumer spending increasing 1.5% month-over-month, both good news. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 declined as bank and oil stocks turned lower.

As of 6:25 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 39.90 points or 0.79%, to 5,020.90. The CAC 40 had fallen 35.54 points or 0.88%, to 3,987.08, falling back below the 4,000 mark after first closing above it again February 11. The DAX had fallen 41.94 points or 0.96%, to 4,311.40.

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