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OI Technical Staff : 2/23/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 5:57:54 PM

Closing Internals at this Link Updated NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 5:19:26 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link Closing Internals at this

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 5:47:06 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Acitivity .... Day traded long shares of Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) at $43.04, never saw much of a bid from there, and was stopped out at $42.65. I liked what I saw from Newmont Mining (NEM) today regarding its relative strength vs. the $HUI.X. All we have to be careful of, and monitor, is that these gold stocks don't trade WEAK vs. the U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) like we saw in November. We also want the STOCKS to lead the commodity (gold) higher, not the other way around.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 4:02:35 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.73 , SPY $119.38

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 4:00:59 PM

The OEX and Dow closed above their 50-sma's, but the SPX came up and tested it, and fell back into the close.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 3:59:32 PM

That was one bad tick showing up on the SPX's daily chart on Q-Charts! It shows a spike down to 1113.39!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 3:50:35 PM

QQQQ 100-tick update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 3:50:04 PM

Altair (ALTI) $4.94 +16.23% Link ... can it get a close at $4.96, its highest close since launch date? Bulls would like to see a trade at $5.00, get that 3-box reversal going. Maybe some slingshot action. WEEKLY Pivot levels... $3.20, $3.69, Piv= $4.51, $5.01, $5.83.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 3:44:49 PM

The OEX turns down through the rising regression channel, a possible bear flag. It has not quite reversed through all the previous resistance on the 7-minute Keltner chart, but is perhaps on the verge of doing so--with this being something that bulls did not want to see, as I mentioned earlier. Still watching, but as I mentioned earlier today, it's my assumption that we're probably seeing consolidation setting up or just a run-of-the-mill oversold bounce. Here's my Nasdaq chart from last week's Wrap (last week's annotations), and the situation couldn't look much clearer or uglier: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 3:43:15 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $119.40 +0.67% ... churning just over 60 million and #4 on most active. Traded a heavy 80 million yesterday, its heaviest volume since May of last year.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 3:38:09 PM

Here's where the OEX is with respect to its 10-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that have been important lately as can be seen by Friday's and Tuesday's tests of the averages: Link The OEX has also moved to the top if its rising regression channel, likely a bear flag. I did not include the Fib bracket on that chart above, but the 50% retracement of the last decline is also being tested. Bulls can't breathe easily yet, certainly. The OEX needs to break down soon, however, or the flag will have climbed too high to be a flag. Above 573, we have to consider that something else might be going on.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 3:32:26 PM

7200 tick support has risen to 36.89 QQQQ. The upmove has stalled at the upper keltner resistance lines which overlap at 37.04, but so long as price holds above the SMA, that ceiling should rise. The key test for these intraday upphases should take place at 37.12 resistance.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 3:23:40 PM

GE has risen to test the 100-ema, the average that stopped it earlier today.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 3:22:25 PM

OEX breaking above that gathered Keltner resistance, testing the 50% retracement level of the last decline. Bulls do not want to see a quick reversal now, as that would hint at a possible stop-run. If this breakout can be maintained, the seven-minute chart suggests an upside target of 574.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 3:23:46 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.78 +12.47% ... here's a press release from today's year-end update. Link The stock caught investor's interest on February 10, when company announced possible Lithioum Ion Battery breakthrough.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 3:19:35 PM

QQQQ's just crossed 36.96, with volume picking up.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 3:14:33 PM

QQQQ is pushing the 30 and 60 min channels higher here with the 7200 tick SMA turning up, currently at 36.84. Those intraday cycles will have a bullish bias so long as price holds above it. The trouble here is that volume is trailing off as the price inches higher- and the last upward spike failed again at 36.96.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 3:12:30 PM

The OEX is still bunching up under seven-minute Keltner resistance. As of this writing, that resistance looks strong enough that it's going to take a buy program to push through it or continued consolidation and small upward tests long enough to allow the lines to separate. Famous last words? Perhaps. The OEX is making one of those small pushes as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 3:08:38 PM

Ten year notes recovered from their post-FOMC lows, but TNX closed above the 4.26% line at 4.268%, -1.7 bps for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 3:13:04 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 3:03:48 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.74 +11.52% .... 2.5 million last 10-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:57:53 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 359.14 +1.04% ... back to challenge morning high. Just not seeing the "unmph" a broader market bull needs though.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:56:05 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 82.63 +0.27% (30-minute delayed) ... has slipped back to its 09:05 opening tick. Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 215.41 -1.07% Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.44 -0.13%.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 2:56:02 PM

As Jeff just mentioned, the SOX fell through the 200-ema to test the 200-sma. There was the to-be-expected automatic bounce from that MA, but now bulls need it to hold.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 2:52:50 PM

The OEX tests the top of the flag. It looks as if it might be trying to break to the upside, above 571. If it can, it might make a run for the 571.71 level that's the 50% retracement of the previous decline, but it's facing Keltner resistance and so the upside breakout is not a given.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:51:48 PM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $42.68 +0.16% ... just sitting here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:50:42 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 423.84 -0.45% ... found some life after testing WEEKLY S1. Also correlative with its 200-day SMA.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 2:47:23 PM

QQQQ's put in a triple bottom above 36.70 today, with the 2PM FOMC spike bringing in a burst of volume on the bounce. The 30 and 60 min oscillators remain bottomy, and while they're looking for a move up, it should ideally have occurred this morning. The longer that bounce takes to materialize, the more it looks like this pathetic flatline is the bounce. A break of 36.70 should panic the longs who have been buying the horizontal line, while a break above 36.96 will have to clear 37.12 to get the 30 and 60 min cycle upphases finally in gear.

Mark Davis : 2/23/2005 2:43:56 PM

Same same on ES Linda

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 2:42:45 PM

The OEX pierced the 38.2% retracement of the last drop (Friday's last five-minute high to yesterday's last five-minute low) but hasn't so far been able to maintain that 570.69 level.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:41:13 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.58 +7.52% ... gets a little volume last 15-20 minutes. $4.76 looks to be a key level of near-term resitance.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:37:42 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:32:17 PM

She's up HUUUUUGE! (grin) I think Fleck has been on at the troughs.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 2:28:37 PM

A friend just sent me this incredible chart correlating Abbey J-C's CNBC appearances with the SPX. I can't vouch for those dates because I haven't tracked them, but... well, it speaks for itself. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:27:04 PM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,189.74, DIA $106.58

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:25:40 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.51 +0.01% ... bids green.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 2:23:07 PM

All day, the OEX has been challenging the 50-sma at 569.78, and it's doing so now.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 2:19:21 PM

The OEX still attempts to climb in a bear flag, although it's not making much progress just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:19:03 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 419.65 -1.41% ... slips under its WEEKLY S1.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 2:18:46 PM



I think I had heard some talk that Bernanke was on the short list for that position. Apparently not.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:09:02 PM

American Express (AXP) $53.89 +0.14% ... see that? Not overly sure AXP is on today's "buy program list" though. That buy program at 12:25:55 didn't find a "pop" like this little one here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 2:06:46 PM

Ten year notes have extended their decline, and the yield is now positive, with TNX +.6 bps at 4.291%. Next daily cycle resistance is in the 4.31%-4.32% zone.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:05:47 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,189.01, DIA $106.56

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 2:13:36 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 2:01:35 PM

The Fed minutes are coming out now. Headlines :







Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 1:57:24 PM

So far, the BIX has not been able to climb back above its 200-ema and -sma, each either side of the 360 S/R level and both just beneath the neckline for a confirmed H&S on the daily chart.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 1:56:15 PM

GE still holds onto that neckline level on the H&S displayed earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 1:47:02 PM

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $5.61 +0.89% ... updated chart I've shown before. Darned close to a "doji" yesterday. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 1:44:31 PM

Careful, bulls and bears both. We're approaching/entering the typical stop-running time of day. The OEX is over the last few minutes beginning to show some slightly weakness on a Keltner basis. On the seven-minute chart, this shows up as the OEX's smallest Keltner channel turns lower again. The rolling over is not so far advanced that the OEX can't find support again, with that support appearing from 567.75-568.18.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 1:37:55 PM

Taiwan Semi (TSM) $8.89 +0.33% ... BIIIG volume spikde of 1.17 million $8.98-$8.95 just before 01:00 PM ESt.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 1:34:59 PM

Current 30 and 60 min channel support overlap at 36.75 QQQQ. A break below that level should end the opposition between the two cycles and resume yesterday's drop. The 30 min upphase has so far been very weak, but if the day lows hold, there will still be a chance that this last dip is the 60 min cycle bottom following that of the 30 earlier. Think reverse head and shoulders-type action- but the lows have to hold.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 1:29:45 PM

The SOX is below its 200-ema again, but still within "just testing" range. The 200-ema is below at 418.88, with the SOX at 421.53 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 1:49:22 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) 15.51 -3.48% .... after a 40-year plus hold, my father tells me he has finally sold the BOOM from my Great Grandmother's trust. This day I will remember for the rest of my life. That's what you call a long-term hold. My Great Grandfather supposedly did some work for them way back when (Explosive Fabricators) and thought they'd be a good investment.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 1:25:07 PM

Here's one of Mark's famous edge-of-the-cliff plays. Will GE or won't GE drop? Link Won't be good for market sentiment if it does.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 1:17:30 PM

The form the OEX takes off yesterday's late-day low still looks like a possible bear flag. If so, bears still hope to see it break to the downside before retracing much higher than 570.69 or 571.72. Right now, the OEX tests that bear flag's support.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 1:15:35 PM

The 4 week bill auction generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.95 at a rate of 2.42%, with indirect bidders (foreign central banks) taking a mere 2.8B of the 24B auctioned.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 1:14:39 PM

Sirius Satellite (SIRI)

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 1:13:33 PM

Brokers (XBD.X) 1448.84 (unch) ... session lows. BIX.X 357.85 +0.68%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 1:12:48 PM

QQQQ continues its sideways chop, a bounce attempt just rejected at the 36.96 line and settling back to challenge the prior low at 36.85. If the 30 and 60 min cycle bulls can't do more than drift sideways/lower during an upphase, then the next down will do more damage.

Bonds are back to yesterday's range with the TNX holding a 2.3 bp loss. Given the large repo drain today, however, the light gains in ten year treasuries and in the Dow/SPX are impressive. Going to check the results of today's treasury auction, which should be posted any minute.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 1:12:38 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert for Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $42.67 at the bid.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 1:11:03 PM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $42.75 ... testing DAILY Pivot here. Bulls need a buyer pretty quick.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 1:19:24 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2005 1:00:04 PM

Thanks Linda for your perspective on the TRAN. Makes sense. Good luck with your family emergency.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 12:53:31 PM

Keene, I'm sorry that I missed your 10:27 post on the TRAN--dealing with a family medical emergency today so that I feel like Jim's famous one-armed wallpaper hanger. On a technical side, I often see stocks or indices start zooming around when a broadening formation begins widening, as emotion-based trading takes over. However, I note that the biggest TRAN gainers today are CSX (3.24%), NSC (3.11%), YELL (5.56%) and USFC, gaining a hefty 11.51%. Today, USFC and YELL gain on reports that they might merge, so that probably drove up the TRAN.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:52:02 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.30 -0.44% ... battles back. Bugger might just make it to unchanged. $HUI.X 215.06 -1.23%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 12:51:20 PM

The CRB is higher again today, up .71 at 298.37 on strength in coffee, which is up 6% at 122. For perspective, here's an 18+ year chart of the CRB: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 12:48:14 PM

Jeff has been mentioning the BIX today, and I agree that it's important to watch. Today the BIX has climbed up to retest its 200-sma from the underside, with the 200-ema just above that. There's also a H&S neckline being tested from the underside on any climb. Here's a BIX chart I first posted in early February--note the question mark at the potential right-shoulder level. Link That right shoulder did form and yesterday's drop confirmed the H&S. Bulls want to see this now-powerful resistance broken to the upside while bears want to see it hold.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:38:08 PM

After opening marginally higher, just seeing TiVo (TIVO) 4.33 +17.29% has busted a move from 11:00 AM EST.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 12:37:26 PM

The SOX hasn't completely invalidated its potential inverse H&S, but that right shoulder is beginning to extend out in time a bit too long, in comparison to the left shoulder, at least. SOX bulls aren't yet able to follow-through on the short-term strength that began setting up this formation. The best I can tell, the neckline is just a touch over 426 now.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 12:36:29 PM

Bonds continue to decline from the early morning highs, with TNX now up 2.3 bps and just crossing 4.26% as I type, currently at 4.262%. Awaiting the 4-week bill auction results at 1PM and the FOMC minutes to be released at 2PM.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:32:53 PM

American Express (AXP) $53.88 +0.18% ... will have to put this one on my bullish watch list. Earlier this month, stock gapped from $53.40 to above $55.00. Yesterday and today's lows find some buyers at the low end of that gap. Here's a 60-minute interval chart of AXP with WEEKLY Pivot levels turned on. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:27:05 PM

Dow Industrials ... percentage gainer list ... PG +1.91%, BA +1.70%, AIG +1.44%, MO +1.29%, AA +1.26%

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:25:55 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,113.39, DIA $106.62

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 12:20:59 PM

With QQQQ resting on the 7200 tick SMA and below the 36.96 level after breaking above it for only a few minutes, this is a less than impressive 30 min cycle upphase. That's to be expected given the strong daily cycle down, but not the extent we're seeing here. If this is the best that the 30 min cycle bulls can do despite the bullish 300-min stochastic divergence, then the next downphase could get very ugly indeed. Bulls need a break north of 37.12 and for the current levels to hold- bears need a break back below 36.80, which would set up a retest of the session lows with a good chance of breaking them.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:15:31 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 12:15:16 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 12:15:01 PM

All eyes on the SOX as it heads down again toward the 200-ema and the 200-sma, with the 200-sma at 418.88. Lots of potential MA support coming together from about 415-422, but bears will be eyeing the potential that the SOX formed a lower high on the daily chart in February.

Tab Gilles : 2/23/2005 12:12:25 PM

CPI put the brakes on Gold($GOX) today, as inflationary concerns were calmed down. This could just be a consolidation pause in an uptrend, as we had last June '04. see charts... Link Link

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 12:04:16 PM

Potential inverse H&S on the SOX's five-minute chart, neckline at about 425.93 currently but still rising. If the SOX drops much below 422.70, the formation will be invalidated. The bounce came this morning as the SOX pierced the 200-ema at 422.14. The formation shows that bulls are trying, but doesn't promise they'll be successful.

Tab Gilles : 2/23/2005 12:03:50 PM

$SOX.X testing 420 level...will there be a reversal? I posted this chart Friday... Link

currently... Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 12:10:54 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 11:52:10 AM

CNBC Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers (TOL) $83.30 +2.78% Link just warned shorts they were going to get crushed. "GOING to get crushed?"

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 11:47:58 AM

QQQQ is back to the 36.96 line, riding a wavelet downphase lower. That shortest of intraday cycles is now bottoming within the short cycle upphase, which itself is within a young 30 min cycle upphase. The 7200 tick SMA has risen to 36.90, and the 30 min cycle upphase should continue to advance so long as price holds above it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 11:44:50 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.09 -0.92% ... some relative strength from the sector bellwether. $HUI.X 213.73 -1.84%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 11:42:45 AM

Yeah... it'd be tough to be trading the QQQQ long under its DAILY Pivot with EXTR -0.33% and SMH -0.90%.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 11:42:35 AM

The TRAN is attempting an upside breakout of the bull flag pullback. Whew. Complicated enough? It still, however, just zooms around within a broadening formation on the daily chart. These broadening formations lead to price movements that are notoriously difficult to predict, so we should watch the breakout points. As mentioned earlier, the 50-dma at 3642 is one point to watch for a potential upside breakout, but the upper trendline is actually a little higher, at about 3651, if I'm drawing the trendline correctly. A TRAN breakout that is sustained might be a sign that markets are marshaling more strength than bears hope to see. Hasn't happened yet, though.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 11:40:02 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.63 +0.58% .... edges above its DAILY Pivot. Did this yesterday for about 20-minutes then got whacked. Looks at least DAILY R1 today though.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 11:34:32 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 359.36 +1.10% ... they've gotten above DAILY R1. QQQQ $37.02 +0.32% .... Jonathan?

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 11:44:48 AM

Back for at least a few minutes. The OEX still looks to be forming a potential bear flag on its 30-minute chart. Time to snap a Fib bracket on the latest decline, from Friday's late-day high to yesterday's late-day low. A 32.8% retracement is at about 570.68 and a 50% retracement is at about 571.69. Bears want to see the OEX's flag break down before it retraces more than that 50% level.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 11:26:43 AM

And breaking above, currently 37.01. A new short cycle upphase is in progress with the 30 min cycle turning up. Next test is 37.12, but QQQQ is looking bullish on an intraday basis above 36.96.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 11:49:25 AM

Bullish day trade long alert .... for Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $43.04 +1% here, stop $42.70, target $43.80. DAILY Pivot levels ... Piv=$42.75, $43.25, $43.90.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 11:25:15 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 359.03 +1.01% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 11:23:51 AM

QQQQ now testing 36.96 resistance as R2K futures print a new high.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 11:11:08 AM

QQQQ's advanced another 10 cents, which has been enough to pull the buried short cycle oscillators up into a preliminary uptick. If QQQQ can clear 36.96, an upphase should kick off, targeting the 37.12 resistance level.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 11:08:32 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 11:02:56 AM

It's still my impression that the OEX is striving mightily to steady and form some sort of structure in which it might climb, with the supposition now being that such a structure would be a distribution formation such as a bear flag. Weakness in the Nasdaq is causing that intense struggle, however, as it's doing anything but steadying. The Nasdaq is, however, at the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the summer's low, so it's possible that dip-buyers could try to take a stand at that 2023.67-ish level. The 200-ema and 200-sma's below at 2007.41 and 1982.81 might be presumed to be both price magnets and potential support, if hit. So, right now, whether or not the OEX can steady may be dependent somewhat on what the Nasdaq does.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 11:11:21 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:59:17 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.60 +0.53% ... might be a day trade short today. Kind'a looking around for a trade. I don't think SIRI going anywhere big today, but keeping an eye on. Might be able to scalp 2% out of it.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 10:57:50 AM

They're trying for the double bottom intraday bounce off the 36.72 QQQQ level, but they need to clear 36.96 to trigger the likely buy-'bot attack. That level, 20 cents north of the current print, looks a long way away.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 10:55:34 AM

Today's 37.72 QQQQ low is being tested here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 10:53:17 AM

Session high for Nymex crude oil at 51.525, +.10.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 10:51:05 AM

Dialing down to a 7-minute Keltner chart, here's what I see for the OEX. Support is firming up from just underneath the OEX down to 567.97. This looks firm enough that it's obvious that the OEX may be attempting to form a bear flag and climb. Nearest resistance gives the OEX trouble, however, and there's further resistance at 569.51-569.74 and again at 571.38-571.92.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:50:51 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X)

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:55:51 AM

Novell Inc. (NOVL) $5.69 -7.02% ... nasty little gap lower after showing some relative strength yesterday. Software maker reported Q1 earnings of $392 million, or $0.90 per share, on revenue of $290 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 10:47:22 AM

Huge decline in CAD futures today, currently down 1.53% to .8041.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:46:14 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 357.07 +0.46% ... session high just under its DAILY R1. QQQQ $36.80 -0.24% ... session high came a penny shy of its DAILY Pivot. Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.34 +0.30% ... session high has been 6-cents shy of its DAILY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 10:43:52 AM

Despite the bounce off a nominal new low, still in range for a double bottom against yesterday's low on the oversold 30 min cycle, the bounce failed at 36.96 QQQQ resistance. A higher low above 36.72 should confirm the new 30 min upphase, but obviously that upphase needs to clear at least 36.96 in order to breathe. The top of the 30 min channel is currently up at 37.12.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 10:39:14 AM

So far, the OEX's 30-minute closes have been below the Keltner resistance that bears want to see holding, with that resistance currently at 569.40-569.54. That keeps alive the possibility of a downturn to 566.35, but there's also possible support a little higher, at 567.67. These are all on a 30-minute closing basis.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:33:44 AM

Lamar Advertising (LAMR) $39.22 -2.72% Link ... "first test of bullish support can be painful for a bear," but LAMR testing a strong level of support above $38.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:31:41 AM

Major Market Indices Market Carpet at this Link I see Lamar (LAMR) is weak. That was one of the stocks HL Camp & Company had listed as being on the "sell program list" yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:27:49 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 114.24 -1.23% ... lows of the session.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 10:25:57 AM

The RLX is modestly higher today after yesterday's big drop, but this morning's first 15-minute zoom higher has since been followed by a confirmed evening-star pattern on the 15-minute chart. Despite that reversal pattern, but RLX may be just trying to form up a flag or other pattern to climb to test resistance, but the daily chart shows that such a climb would be likely to be a climb up to test the broken support of the bear flag broken through yesterday. That support is roughly even with the 100-ema, now at 436.62, and the 30-sma, now at 437.62. The RLX's rallies and declines have been important to the OEX, too, either as leading indicators or corroborations of strength or weakness, so watch the RLX. A climb today is not out of the question, but neither is a keeling over into a decline down to retest the 200-ema and -sma. My best guess, and it's a guess only, is that the RLX will at least make an attempt to climb or stabilize today. Whether or not the RLX gets overwhelmed at some point, I'm not certain.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:23:30 AM

Semoconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) $33.05 -0.75% ... components sorted by percentage loss at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 10:23:02 AM

April gold is down 2.30 at 433.60 as the USD continues its bounce. Ten year bonds have eased off their highs, with TNX currently down 4.5 bps at 4.24%. Nymex crude is currently trading -.45 at 50.975.

Keene Little : 2/23/2005 10:27:28 AM

Linda, have you heard any specifics on what's causing TRAN's huge spike up this morning? My 60-min chart shows one very long green bar that basically retraced yesterday's decline. One thing that's interesting though is that it's finding resistance at the broken uptrend line from Jan 24th. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:16:45 AM

Market Internals recent session's trade and current intra-day NH/NL indications at the NASDAQ would have the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio seeing a 3-box reversal lower. More defensive and lack of bullish leadership among 4 and 5-lettered stocks.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 10:14:15 AM

Here we go again. The TRAN is off its high, perhaps drifting back toward 3600. It has not yet retraced more than 32.8% of the day's range, but the shape of the drop off the high doesn't look like a bullish shape, as in a bull flag. While the TRAN remains trapped in that broadening formation, we can't really determine much about the zooming around from one side to the other, but now must wait for a definitive breakout or breakdown. That's going to be difficult to define since the shape is broadening, but we'll keep watching.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 10:11:19 AM

Careful, OEX traders and Q-Charts users. Some servers are not giving up-to-date data.

So far, the OEX continues to show that 30-minute Keltner resistance at 569.47-569.71 still holds the OEX back.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:07:10 AM

VIX.X 12.85 -2.20% ... Daily Pivot Levels... 11.73, 12.44, Piv= 12.80, 13.51, 13.87

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 10:06:28 AM

Thanks, Linda. Yesterday's 36.78 low sets up 1st support here, and given that the 30 min cycle is in a zone where it should be looking for a bottom, this support zone is a decent candidate for a corrective upphase within the daily cycle downphase that kicked off last week. If this support fails, next support is in the 36.60-.66 area discussed at yesterday's close.

I'm flying semi-blind waiting for my tick-driven chart to rack up enough data to generate my intraday SMA's and keltner bands- should take about 30 minutes or so, depending on the volume.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 10:02:33 AM

Glad you're back, Jonathan, and I'm sure readers would rather have your input on the QQQQ's than mine.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 10:13:50 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 10:01:13 AM

I'm not familiar with watching the QQQQ's, as Jonathan obviously is, but here's what I see on a 30-minute Keltner chart. The smallest channel turns lower, keeping alive the possibility of a move down toward 36.49, but the QQQQ's scramble (sorry about the anthropomophism) to hold onto support from 36.80-36.94. Bears want to see the QQQQ's continue to show 30-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 37.03 while bulls want to see 30-minute closes above that line to stabilize the QQQQ's and then above 37.26-37.54 to turn the lower channel up again and undo that vulnerability.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 9:58:04 AM

Back on my backup machine to see QQQQ back to unchanged. I'm missing the last 45 minutes' data and am playing catchup here. Meanwhile, I see that the Fed's added a 7.25B 2-day repo to replace the 14.5B expiring today, for a large 7.25B net drain.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:57:44 AM

The OEX's 30-minute Keltner resistance still holds, with that resistance just under 570. Bears want to see it hold on 30-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:57:03 AM

Careful, bears. The TRAN is zooming up through the megaphone-shaped broadening formation on its daily chart. This zooming from one side to the other is typical of behavior as such formations broaden more, and it could just as easily zoom right back down again, but watch. The 50-dma is at 3642.34, so that might be one benchmark to watch for an upside breakout, but I'm not predicting a breakout, just watching for one. The TRAN is at 3621.65 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 9:55:23 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:52:14 AM

Mixed signals. On the OEX's two-minute chart, the pullback is taking the form of a bull flag, and it's pulling back into the rising two-minute 21-ema, perhaps finding support there and attempting an upside breakout as I type. The OEX remains below the two-minute 100/130-ema's, however.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 9:49:49 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,617.25 +2.17% ... strong gains out of the gate. The Wall Street Journal reporting that Yellow Roadway (YELL) $58.10 +4.91% Link is in talks to buy USF Corp. (USFC) $37.99 +13.87% Link in a deal that could be valued at more than $1 billion.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:49:06 AM

The OEX closed the first 15-minute period between one potential S/R level and the next highest. Turning to the 30-minute chart shows that the OEX is so far being turned back at next 30-minute Keltner resistance at 569.71-569.91. This morning's spike higher certainly did not take the shape of a bearish formation, but so far, the resistance that needs to hold to keep that 566.54 downside target a possibility still holds.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:46:27 AM

The OEX just sent a long spike down to the two-minute 21-ema, bouncing from it exactly, showing that it still continues to be important to the OEX's behavior. The OEX is now testing the two-minute 100/130-ema's at 569.45 and 569.91, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 9:45:40 AM

3M (MMM) $83.62 -0.02% Link ... Smith Barney downgrades to "hold" from "buy" based on stock's recent trade at $86 price target.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:45:07 AM

The SOX is modestly positive today, but already off its HOD in the first retracement of the day today.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:35:13 AM

Big surge in the OEX to match the big surge in the advdec line. The OEX is now at the two-minute 100/130-ema's. The big surge is going to disrupt Keltner lines on the short-term charts for a little while, but the OEX climbed right up into potential Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, breaking through the first level of resistance. Bears don't want to see a 15-minute close above 570.18 and would prefer not to see one above 568.74.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:32:29 AM

Jump in the advdec line this morning.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:31:49 AM

The OEX is immediately coming up to test the two-minute 21-ema at 567.94. This average was capping gains since about mid-morning yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 9:28:37 AM

Jonathan is having technical difficulties, and will post as soon as possible.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2005 9:28:41 AM

Pre-market most actives ... CIEN $2.78 +1.09%, ACDO $40.98 +35% (Medco Health to buy company in $2.2 billion cash/stock deal), MSFT $25.27 +0.15%, SIRI $5.69 +2.3%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 8:58:46 AM

A potential bullish divergent uptick in the 30 min cycle oscillators this morning for QQQQ on the CPI bounce should bloom into a full-fledged upphase if QQQQ can clear the 37.20 from here. A reversal back below 36.96 could set up a spike as low as 36.60-.66 support, but that would most likely be an exhaustion spike to terminate the 30 min cycle downphase from yesterday. A 30 min cycle upphase is due, and the question is whether there will be a final dip to complete yesterday's downphase, or whether the CPI spike at 8:30 kicked it off. If 36.96 holds, then it should be the latter.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 8:48:05 AM

Despite the pullback off the highs in equities, bonds continue to rise, with TNX now down 5.5 bps (a 1.28% decline) to 4.23%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 8:44:57 AM

QQQQ is now up .23 at 37.12, ES up 4 at 1188.75 and testing 1189 resistance, ten year notes up .265 at 111 5/8 with TNX down 3.7 bps at 4.248%, back below 4.26% support and reversing yesterday's gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 8:31:02 AM

Bonds and equities gapping higher to new highs.






8:29am U.S. CPI UP 3% IN PAST YEAR; CORE CPI UP 2.3%



8:29am U.S. JAN. CPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 8:28:55 AM

Session high for QQQQ and gold as we await the CPI data in 2 minuts, both up a dime at 36.99 and 436 respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 8:13:55 AM

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that the Mortgage Index declined .6% in the week ended Feb 18th, to 727.9. The Refi Index rose .1% to 2532, while the Purchase Index declined 1.3% to 417.8.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 7:22:22 AM

Session low for April gold here at 434.40, -1.5. Daily chart of gold at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 7:16:44 AM

6-month daily chart of the USD Index (March DX future) at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/23/2005 7:09:57 AM

Equities are lower, with ES trading 1184, NQ 1498, YM 10614 and QQQQ down 2 cents to 36.87. Despite a gap down in the US Dollar Index at 6PM yesterday, Link , the drift higher overnight has gold down 1.10 to 434.80 and silver down 7 cents to 7.44. Nymex crude is down .25 to 51.175, while ten year bonds are up .031 to 111 25/64.

The CPI and core CPI are scheduled for 8:30, est. .2% for both.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 7:01:36 AM

I would like to wait until after the 8:30 release of CPI numbers today to post this, to see how the markets react to that number, but as of this writing, I'm not sure that I'll be on the Monitor today due to a worsening in the condition of a family member in the hospital.

The OEX plummeted Tuesday, ending the day below both the 50-sma and 30-sma, with the 30-sma playing an important part in the OEX's behavior over the last few months: Link The advdec level yesterday showed markets to be short-term oversold, but when reaching similar numbers January 3, the markets still had another couple of days before the selling stopped. This number offers a warning, but isn't any more absolute a market-timing tool than is the VIX. Therefore, bears should be warned that selling is reaching a crescendo and to be on the lookout for dip-buying to begin, and should continue to follow the OEX down with their stops, but that doesn't necessarily mean that today will mark a good point for options players to try buying the dip. That remains to be seen.

Breakdown signals have been created on both the 30- and 60-minute OEX Keltner charts. The 30-minute breakdown set a potential downside target of 566.74, near historical horizontal S/R on the daily chart, so on any follow-through in the selling, bears might look for potential first support at that area. The 60-minute breakdown set a much lower potential downside target, at 562.11. Any bounce attempt from 566-566.75 should tell us much about whether that 561.11 target is likely to be seen, with bears wanting a measured, distribution-type bounce, such as a bear flag, and bulls wanting to see a strong volume-packed V-shaped recovery. The 60-minute chart suggests that the OEX would likely find resistance firming up near 572.70-573.40 by the time the OEX could rise that high, with other resistance below that also possibly strong enough to stop the OEX.

A test of 572.70-573.40 would constitute a retest of the neckline of a H&S on the 60-minute chart as well as the 60-minute 100/130-ema's. Depending on the shape of any recovery, the volume behind it, and the behavior of other indices, a test of that level and rollover from it might make a good new bearish entry.

Linda Piazza : 2/23/2005 6:56:56 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell, but managed to hold onto 11,500, but European bourses are losing important round-number levels this morning. Depending on the contract, our futures had been flat-lined or had crept slightly higher into the European open, but dropped to modest losses after the European markets declined, too. As of 5:47 EST, gold was down $1.30, and crude, down $0.21, to $51.21. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After Japan's January trade surplus data showed a drop of 59.9% from the same month last year, so much worse than expected that I doubted that I was reading the number correctly, the Nikkei dropped down to 11,500 near the open Wednesday and fell from there. It did make a mighty effort to steady and to close off its low of the day, down 97.53 or 0.84%, at 11,500.18.

Both exports and imports hit record highs, with exports helped by strong demand for steel and processed metals. Sentiment wasn't helped with crude futures above $51.00, exacerbating the news from the trade surplus. Import costs had been driven up in part by crude costs. Dollar weakness as the markets opened didn't help, either, since dollar weakness hurts Japanese exporters. Headlines worried over the impact of higher materials costs. The Bank of Japan's Governor Fukui reassured market watchers that the central bank would maintain its easy money policy through early March. Another number, the January Service Price Index, declined 0.9% over the previous month's, and 0.5% year over year. The rate of annual decline is increasing.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.23%, but South Korea's Kospi fell 0.96%. South Korea's central bank reassured forex markets that its plan for diversification, causing upheavals in the forex market this week, was not a new plan and did not signal more selling of the U.S. dollar, as many had interpreted it to mean. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.48%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 0.94%. China's Shanghai Composite was flat, up 0.02%.

Most European markets turn lower, with the FTSE 100 and DAX having lost important round-number support, following the CAC's example from yesterday. The head of the IFO Institute claimed that Germany's long-term trend growth will sink to just 1%, disputing any possibility that Germany will be able to maintain a deficit to GDP ratio of 3%, as needed according to the eurozone's stability pact. When released, the IFO for February had dropped to a worse-than-expected 95.5. As happened in Japan, the negative sentiment engendered by the number was exacerbated by higher crude costs. In Italy, February's Business Confidence declined to 86.8, with the decline in the orders component being pegged as the reason behind the decline. One bit of good news, however, even if it was old news, was the jump in the eurozone Industrial Orders for December, with a strong increase in orders for transport equipment sending the number higher. The good news was tempered by the fact that those orders were mostly for several Airbus airplanes and that these orders won't immediately go into production. In the U.K., the CBI Industrial Trades Survey for February showed a rise from -13 to -10 in the Industrial Trends Order Book.

As of 6:54 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 57.60 points or 1.14%, to 4,975.30, dropping below 5,000. The CAC 40 had dropped 48.41 points or 1.21%, to 3,953.92, having lost 4,000 yesterday. The DAX had fallen 40.99 points or 0.95%, dropping below 4,300.00.

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