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Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 12:00:27 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.55 and set for program selling at $-0.65. OEX stocks that were bought the most during Thursday's buy programs were (NSM, MAY, HNZ, TXN, VZ, BMY, DOW, TOY, BA, SLB, XOM, HAL) NDX stocks that were bought the most during Thursday's buy programs were (DLTR, ERICY, MCIP, TEVA, SNDK, ALTR, MXIM, LLTC)

OI Technical Staff : 2/24/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 8:49:24 PM

Horton hears a Hoo? ... vertical count is $53, and that's enough room to $52. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 8:40:05 PM

Good Gravy! ... Pulte Home (PHM) $73.45 +8.91% Link I looked at it last night as it appeared it was going to pull back into that $65.19-$66.37 zone.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 7:49:19 PM

eBay (EBAY) $42.37 +1.26% ... 30-minute chart inverval with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels at this Link . Also placed recent profile entry/exit points on chart.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 7:36:37 PM

Intuit (INTU) $40.85 +0.64% ... Instinet offer is $41.70 and that's too much to pay right now. Wouldn't have gotten filled at $40.90. Will keep an eye on INTU tomorrow for entry. Tomorrow's DAILY Pivot levels should be $39.56, $40.21, Piv= $40.57 $41.22, $41.58. WEEKLY Pivot is at $40.53. I'll be looking long at WP/DP correlation.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 7:23:14 PM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $30.15 -2.36% ... last tick in extended session was 125 shares at $29.85. Never could dig up any explanation for today's weakness. Some chatter of block trade at the open, but Bear Stearns defended late morning. Some renewed chatter of possible SIRI buyout, but SIRI $5.58 -0.71% not looking as if it responded to these continued rumors.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 7:07:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 6:18:44 PM

Closing Internals at this Link Updated NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link and it would currently take an 88% reading for the 10-day NH/NL ratio to see a 3-box reversal lower.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 5:57:51 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link I make a note (PINK) for the SOX.X, and for my previously bearish profiled trade in the SMH, the SOX.X shouldn't have been able to recapture its WEEKLY Pivot. For my Newmont (NEM) long, I would think I want the Dollar Index (dx00y) to stay below 83.07-83.10 correlation.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 5:21:30 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 bullish position in Intuit (INTU) $40.90 Link extended session, stop goes $39.60, target $43.90.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 4:54:20 PM

HR Block (HRB) $47.03 -1.23% .... surges in extended session to $50.50. (earnings)

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 4:52:24 PM

MCI, Inc. (MCIP) $23.21 +1.13% ... lower at $22.67 ... Qwest (Q) $4.20 +3.7% revises offer (more cash/less stock, but still $24.60 a share). Seeks immediate discussion with MCIP executives. Qwest saying offer is 20% higher than Verizon's (VZ) $35.50 -0.14% and has "collar" against stock decline.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 4:35:22 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity .... Bearish day trade short a full position in shares of XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) at $30.25. One-half of this position was closed out at $30.05. ($+0.20, or 0.66%. The other 1/2 bearish is still open. Stop adjusted to $30.65, targeting $28.30. Lowered stop and was stopped out of the 1/2 bearish short in the underlying Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) at $33.75. ($-0.25, or -0.75%) Got back on board eBay with a swing trade bullish call trade and two (2) of the EBAY April $45 Calls (XBA-DI) at the offer of $1.30. Placed a standing order to BUY BACK the two (2) MMM April $90 Calls (MNZ-DR) for $0.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:57:23 PM

Swing trade bullish call option alert .... taking two (2) of the eBay EBAY April $45 Calls (XBA-DI) at the offer of $1.30. EBAY $42.46 +1.48% here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:50:50 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.70 +1.93% ... I don't get the sense of "euphoria" from buyers at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:48:26 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,199.70 +0.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:47:45 PM

VIX.X 11.56 -6.69% ... continues to decline. Looks WEEKLY Pivot now.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 3:45:06 PM

QQQQ update at this Link . If that's a bear wedge, then 37.45 should cap any bounce in the coming minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:42:28 PM

3M (MMM) $84.11 +0.22% ... was $83.20 at 01:23:46.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:38:27 PM

Bearish swing trade close out 1/2 bearish position in today's trading in XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) here at $30.05.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:36:52 PM

SOX.X 433.45 +2.22%

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:36:09 PM

Bearish swing trade short stop alert ... stopped on the 1/2 bearish position in the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) here at $33.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 3:33:49 PM

30 min channel support is up to 37.20 currently, with the 7200 tick SMA support at 37.29. The 30 min cycle will remain bullish so long as QQQQ holds above the SMA- while a break below will need to cross 37.20 for at least 5 minutes to turn it down.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:27:26 PM

I have to step out for about 10-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:25:35 PM

Forest labs (FRX) $42.71 +0.09% ... just edged back positive.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:25:06 PM

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) 314.94 -0.04% ... strong pop just after 02:00 PM EST. Pfizer (PFE) $26.26 -0.19% looks the same.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:22:27 PM

SOX.X 432.70 +2.04% ... sooooo close to its WEEKLY Pivot (432.91). SMH $33.70 +1.93% ... session high has been $33.74. (penny shy of my revised lower swing trade bearish stop)

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:15:57 PM

Tell them Maria.... "I know what happened..." tell me what you think I should be doing today!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 3:14:08 PM

QQQQ update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 3:05:55 PM

QQQQ is breaking above its bull flag/pennant resistance here, testing the session high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 3:09:51 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:58:21 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 2:50:42 PM

Updated QQQQ trendlines here, Link , with price holding above the 2-day rising channel. A break above the 37.33 high should see a quick run to the 37.40-.45 confluence. A break lower will have the previous 37.12-.14 support to contend with, and with the 30/60 min cycles finally generating some tractions, 30 min cycle bears will want to see QQQQ below 37.05 before trusting any weakness from here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:51:18 PM

Morg. Stanley Health Provider (RXH.X) 414.00 +1.05% Link ... challenge 52-week high.

Jane Fox : 2/24/2005 2:48:22 PM

Dateline CNN Doctors treating Pope John Paul II considering performing tracheotomy on 84-year-old pontiff

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:53:25 PM

QQQ $37.24 ... can feel/observe some pressure building. Every short and his/her brother/sister will be hitting it short here with tight stops

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 2:47:00 PM

Gold is holding at a 70 cent loss here, 435.20 with HUI down 1.26% and XAU -1.12%, while QQQQ bounces from a higher low above 37.20 Link . Ten year notes remain soft, with ZN printing a session low of 111 9/32 and TNX +1.6 bps at 4.284%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:46:23 PM

SOX.X 432.06 +1.89% ... just shy of its WEEKLY Pivot (432.91). Bulls love to see an index trade WEEKLY S1, then ramp and reverse back above the PIVOT.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:44:45 PM

Semi Holdrs (SMH) $33.71

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:44:12 PM

CBOE Internet (INX.X) 180.47 -0.58% ... has erased nearly all of earlier session losses.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:43:35 PM

Treasury selliing, dollar buying, lots of green in the U.S. Market Watch ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:39:55 PM

QQQQ bears face is red, their trying to hold 'em back. $37.26

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:39:06 PM

Semi HOLDRs (SMH) $33.59 +1.60% ... hasn't been able to push above its WEEKLY Pivot $33.66 at this point. Sitting in that little intra-day "zone of resistance."

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:37:45 PM

XM Sat. Radio (XMSR) $28.89 -3.17% ... updated day trader's chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:32:00 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.62 +1.69% ... 5-minute interval chart with WEEKLY and DAILY Pivot levels. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 2:30:57 PM

Nymex crude looks to be settling at 51.40, +.225 for the session.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 2:24:21 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link . The red dots indicate 30 min Keltner violations, and the failure to reverse back down indicates a trending/impulsive move. 37.12-.14 is now support for any pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:24:54 PM

3M (MMM) $83.63 -0.38% ... thinking to myself ... "bears are going to hate me for trying to close out those calls." (see 01:23:46)

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:21:07 PM

I agree Jonathan... DAILY R2 is last chance at $37.27.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:18:58 PM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... on the 1/2 bearish position in the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.57 +1.54% ... to $33.75. Trading DAILY R1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:15:18 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.09 +0.24% ... bears pressured here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 2:15:03 PM

Keltner resistance was just exceeded on the last surge, indicating again that this is where the short cycle bears should be pushing back. If 37.12 holds as support, then that will indicate that the 30 min cycle upphase is dominant, suggesting further strength to the 37.28, .40 and .57-.60 resistance levels. If it fails, then QQQQ should return back to the middle of the prior range below 37.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:12:23 PM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $43.16 +1.62% ... spring to life from $42.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 2:11:38 PM

Session high being exceeded now. Bulls want to see 37.12 hold as support if tested.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:10:29 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,194.30, DIA $106.91

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 2:09:33 PM

30 min channel resistance has now risen to 37.14 from its prior 37.09 level, with QQQQ holding above 37.00 on the last pullback. Volume has picked up. A break of either 37.12 or 37.00 should provide direction- with the short cycle upphase starting to max out in overbought territory, it's time for the 30 minute cycle bulls to step up to the plate.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 2:14:29 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link 02:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:58:54 PM

XMSR $29.91 -3.23% ... might be making its bearish move here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:58:23 PM

VIX.X 11.96 -3.47% ... did juuuust undercut morning low reading of 11.90 in last 10-minutes. Remember today's DAILY S2 11.91.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:55:20 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.42 +1.08% ... session high was $33.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:54:35 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 622.94 +0.38% .. first major to make a new session high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:53:38 PM

Get'n green in the U.S. Market Watch as majors press morning highs. ... TRIN 1.05 +40%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 1:54:49 PM

QQQQ is surging up through 37.05 resistance, taking another run at the session highs. While the short cycle upphase has more room to run, price is colliding with 30 and 60 min channel resistance intersecting at 37.09. If price doesn't drop back below 37.00 within the coming minutes, expect those channel limits to rise. Currently, key confluence resistance remains at 37.12. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:48:25 PM

Ipsco (IPS) $49.65 +3.02% ... presses session high and spring from DAILY R2 $49.11. WEEKLY R1 higher at $51.28.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:47:08 PM

XMSR ... wondering what the market maker that bought from session low might be doing with options as a hedge? ... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 1:44:33 PM

Session low for ten year treasuries here with yields ticking back positive, currently +.9 bps at 4.279%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:39:57 PM

XM Sat. Radio (XMSR) $30.22 -2.13% .. updated day trader's chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:37:28 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,192.22, DIA $106.77

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:23:46 PM

Swing trade place close out option alert ... Let's place an order to buy back those two (2) 3M MMM April $90 Calls (MNZ-DR) for $0.10. These are currently $0.15 x $0.20.

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 1:22:16 PM

I have to leave again and may be gone for the rest of the afternoon. I'll return if I can. I had hoped there would be a break one direction or the other before I left, but no going. The typical stop-running time of day approaches (at about 1:35-1:55), so be wary of a quick move that sees no follow-through and then a quick reversal. If the OEX should break to the downside, bears should know how they'll handle a test of Tuesday's low, and of a potential double-bottom level. The 60-minute Keltner chart shows a potential for downside to 561.63, but only if the OEX plunges through and maintains levels below Tuesday's low. On an upside breakout above 572.75-573, that same 60-minute chart shows the next upside target at 577, but don't get married to any of these potential targets. Be willing to take small profits if offered.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:19:32 PM

DROOY $1.06 -28.85% Link ... getting closer to its bearish vertical count ($0.00). How did you see that one Jonathan?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 1:17:37 PM

Volume for QQQQ was below the 101.3M average yesterday, and is on track today to come in light again at 54.9M so far. Unless this range breaks soon, it will most likely be another weak volume day. Updated chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 1:17:33 PM

What can be seen on an OEX three-minute Keltner chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 1:10:50 PM

A look at the OEX's 60-minute Keltner chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 1:12:21 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link 01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 12:59:13 PM

The OEX still trades sideways out of that formation on the OEX's ten-minute chart, and that symmetrical triangle that had seemed such a hopeful predictor of next direction fizzles in that role. It's a dangerous sign to bears when a formation breaks to the downside and then has no follow-through, so bears need to be guarding profits in case bulls try to spike markets higher instead. Watch those ten-minute 100/130-ema's at 570.87 and 571.38 for clues. Remember that you're watching for ten-minute closes above/below these lines and not just intra-10-minute moves. The 50% retracement of the decline off Tuesday's late-day high is at 571.69 and bears would really prefer that the OEX not show ten-minute closes above that level, but certainly not above 572.69.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 12:59:11 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.70 -0.06% ... battles back near unchanged. $HUI.X 214.24 -1.16%

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 12:57:30 PM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $30.15 -2.36% ... here's bar chart with conventional (BLUE) and bearish fitted 38.2% (PINK) at this Link (see 12:51:47)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 12:52:19 PM

QQQQ's intraday oscillators have flatlined here, with the 600 minute stochastic showing a bearish kiss early in its weak upphase. That could easily "undraw" on a sudden surge in price, but it will take a sustained break above the session high. So far, the range since Tuesday is behaving like a corrective "b" distribution below last week's decline- a break below 36.60-.66 should trigger a resumption of that decline, while the upside break above 37.12 would be the first step toward reversing it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 12:51:47 PM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) trade update alert $30.05 -2.68% Link ... I'm noting today's daily interval bar chart, where XMSR challenges its 200-day SM. MACD indications are further negative. Change of plans.... IF XMSR hits my bearish day trade target of $29.53, lets cover just 1/2 of the position, then let the other 1/2 become a SWING TRADE SHORT, adjust stop to $30.65 and target $28.30.

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 12:38:02 PM

Once again, the SOX has pulled way back from its HOD, but it still remains above the 200-ema and 200-sma. A host of other averages cycles up to join those, too. Marc has mentioned the importance of the 200-week sma, currently at 441.38, so that it's possible to see a standoff for a period as the SOX ping-pongs between this long-term resistance and this seemingly strong support.

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 12:34:40 PM

Still watching the OEX, which still trades sideways after breaking out of the symmetrical triangle by that sideways trade out of the supporting trendline. Bulls are showing some stamina, keeping the OEX from falling, but it does remain below the ten-minute 21/100/130-ema's and isn't rising up to test them, either. Mixed evidence.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 12:33:46 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 82.88 +0.24% (30-minute delayed) ... just now noting today's high of 83.08 was right at WEEKLY S1. $HUI.X) did violated its WEEKLY R1 (212.90) to 211.49, but bulls snapped them up and trade 213.80 -1.37% now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 12:27:31 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 12:26:51 PM

TRAN weekly chart: Link

Tab Gilles : 2/24/2005 12:26:42 PM

Daily and weekly view of $GOX. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 12:22:52 PM

Sideways trade out of that symmetrical triangle on the OEX's 10-minute chart. This is always a sign for bears not to jump on the bearish bandwagon too heavily . . . and the OEX rises as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 12:35:00 PM

April Crude Oil (cl05j) $51.00 -0.13% ... traders will note that session low has been $50.46. This makes sense and would depict that there are some shorts still, or bulls still eager to get things square after Tuesday's move. (see 10:30:52)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 12:15:57 PM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 12:14:54 PM

The OEX is minimally breaking down below that neutral triangle on its 10-minute chart, but only minimally and the breakdown has not been corroborated by a similar breakdown by the advdec line. Not sure what to make of it yet, then. I'm a little distrustful, but . . .

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 12:14:15 PM

Ipsco (IPS) $49.35 +2.40% Link ... challenges 6-session high range. 52-weeker just ahead.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 12:05:39 PM

Ten year treasuries have weakened, with TNX now down 1 bp at 4.258%, taking a run at 4.26% resistance. The Fed's 3.75B net add has so far yielded little net strength across the markets, with equities virtually unchanged from their opening levels, ditto bonds. Commodities are down as well, with the CRB -1.17 at 297.99, with heating oil, silver and copper futures leading to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 12:13:02 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 2/24/2005 12:01:47 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 11:59:43 AM

TRIN 1.21 +60% ... presses morning high.

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 11:59:39 AM

Just happened to notice that the advdec line is coiling just like the OEX. Watching it might give us advance warning or at least corroboration of a break in the OEX's symmetrical triangle. Remember, though, that a brief buy or sell program can break the advdec line (and the indices) out of their coiling formations without seeing any follow-through. Still, it's one clue to help traders.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 11:57:56 AM

XMSR $30.11 -2.46% ... updated day trader's chart at this Link Bear need some weakness back below DAILY S2 from here.

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 11:50:58 AM

Taking a look at the OEX on a 15-minute Keltner chart offers absolutely no clues as to next direction. Both resistance and support lines are fairly widely spaced, so that it's difficult to judge which is strongest. This corroborates the consolidation pattern in the form of a symmetrical triangle.

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 11:48:26 AM

The RLX shows no particular strength just yet, looking as if it may be trying to form a "b" distribution pattern at the bottom of its recent decline.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 11:45:14 AM

Nymex crude is dipping back below the 51 level, down 20 cents here at 50.975.

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 11:45:10 AM

Here's where the TRAN is with respect to that broadening formation on the daily chart, the 50-sma, and the 50% retracement of the rally off the August low: Link Watch for a breakout here or another rollover.

Tab Gilles : 2/24/2005 11:43:28 AM

GOLD

$GOX Link

Newmont Mining (NEM) Link

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 11:37:52 AM

The OEX remains within the symmetrical triangle established beginning late yesterday. The top trendline is now at 571.56 and the bottom now at about 570.

Tab Gilles : 2/24/2005 11:32:24 AM

$SOX Semiconductor Index appears to be rallying off 420/425 level I highlighted last Friday. Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 11:24:46 AM

I'm returning, possibly for only a couple of hours. However, I see that the OEX is coiling beneath the 10-minute 100/130-ema's and the 50% retracement of the decline that immediately preceded the climb off Tuesday's late-day low. It looks as if the OEX might be forming a symmetrical triangle at the top of that climb, so we'll be able to watch for a breakout one direction or the other. Be careful of a potential fake-out move, however. On any breakout, be watchful for a quick reversal back inside the formation. Link

I note that the TRAN remains within its broadening formation, currently challenging the 50-dm and 50% retracement of the rally off the August low. I note that the SOX remains above its 200-ema and -sma. I note that GE hovers just above the neckline of its big H&S on the daily chart. Lots to watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 11:21:19 AM

DROOY has issued a profit warning, highlighting cashflow problems: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 11:20:35 AM

XM Satellite (XMSR) $30.44 -1.42% ... day trader's chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 11:20:17 AM

I see that Durban Roodeport Deep (DROOY) is getting creamed here, down 40.94% at .88. Looking for news now.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 11:16:59 AM

Both the price and the intraday cycle setup are nearly unchanged for the QQQQ since this AM. The doji spike to the session high following the Energy Dept's oil inventory data reinforces the 37.12 resistance level and suggests again that the lack of a drop yesterday and today is the result of a weak corrective upphase in the 30 and 60 min cycles. The failure at 37.12 is the first step- confirmation will come on a break below yesterday's low and through the 36.60 support line from earlier this month. In the meantime, this midrange is behaving as a directionless chopzone, as the daily cycle bears fight it out with the 30 and 60 min cycle bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 11:14:14 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 11:02:36 AM

Bearish day trade short alert .... let's short XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $30.25 -2.04% here, stop $30.55, target $29.53.

Tab Gilles : 2/24/2005 11:05:51 AM

The IMF rationalizing the Dollars decline by suggesting that the weakness is focusing attention to the US current account deficit problem, the Dollar could easily restart its downside slide and in turn spark renewed buying of gold. Link EUR/USD finding nearterm support... Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:58:35 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,190.97, DIA $106.63 (Hmmmm... DAILY Pivot) ... Oil has been firm since EIA data.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:56:37 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 82.87 +0.22% (30-minute delayed) ... bumping against DAILY R1. $HUI.X) 212.86 -1.80% ... testing yesterday's low and WEEKLY R1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:53:50 AM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $30.25 -2.04% ... earlier this morning, stock saw rather sharp decline to $29.00, then BIG volume spike at that level lifted the stock back to current levels. Sirius (SIRI) $5.64 +0.35% ... has been steady all morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 10:51:07 AM

QQQQ update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 10:49:12 AM

Headlines:

10:46am API: CRUDE SUPPLIES DOWN 3.4 MLN BARRELS

10:46am API: DISTILLATE SUPPLIES UP 1.5 MILLION BARRELS

10:47am API: GASOLINE SUPPLIES RISE 5.7 MILLION BARRELS

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:48:00 AM

TRIN 0.93 +24% ... sessiion low has been 0.86. Not much of a BULLISH violation below the DAILY Pivot at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:46:40 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.86 +0.02% ... 5-minute chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot levels. Breaks either side of DAILY S1/R1 will be important. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:41:02 AM

SOX.X 427.76 +0.87% ... tentative after test of DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:39:56 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 359.28 +0.22% ... challenge yesterday's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:34:32 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,104.09, DIA $106.99

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 10:34:42 AM

QQQQ is cracking 37.12 resistance here on a sharp move, breaking above the 30 and 60 min channel resistance lines. The bears should be pushing back right here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:33:29 AM

Buy Program Premium SPX 1,193.33 , DIA $106.93

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 10:35:05 AM

Headlines:

10:32am ENERGY DEPT.: CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 600,000 BARRELS

10:33am ENERGY DEPT.: GASOLINE STOCKS UP 1.8 MLN BARRELS

10:33am ENERGY DEPT.: DISTILLATE SUPPLIES FALL 700,000 BARRELS

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:32:24 AM

Buy Program Premium SPX 1,191.82, DIA $106.84

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 10:32:03 AM

Session low for Nymex crude here at 51.175.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:31:53 AM

VIX.X 12.14 -2.01% ... has come back under its WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:30:52 AM

April Crude Oil futures (cl04j) $51.75 +1.13% ... updated conventional (BLUE) and bearish fitted 38.2% (PINK) at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 10:28:54 AM

Session low for gold here at 433.70, -2.2. Bonds have weakened as well, with TNX up to a 1.6 bp loss at 4.252%. Crude oil is up .375 at 51.55.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:23:53 AM

Joy Global (JOYG) $33.87 +14.61% Link ... manufacturer of servicer of high-productivity mining equipment for the extraction of coal and other mineral ores higher after strong earnings.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 10:16:26 AM

QQQQ just poked its head above the prior high at 37.00. The 30 and 60 min cycle channels are net flat from this morning's gyrations. Immediate resistance is 37.05, followed by the key 37.12 level for the 30 and 60 min cycles.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:16:17 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.64 -0.17% ... session low pegged the DAILY S1. This becomes my key intra-day level of support for the major indices.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:14:35 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 10:10:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 10:02:17 AM

The Fed has just announced a 6.75B 6-day repo, for a net add of 3.75B today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 10:01:11 AM

Headline:

10:00am U.S. JAN. HELP-WANTED INDEX 41 VS. 38 IN DEC.

Expectations were for 38.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:58:31 AM

VIX.X 12.31 -0.64% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.91, 12.16, Piv= 12.54, 12.79, 13.17.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 9:57:46 AM

No word from the Fed yet as to any overnight repos, and if nothing is done there will be a modest 3B net drain for the day. 2 minutes until the release of the Help Wanted Index.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 9:51:11 AM

QQQQ update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:49:25 AM

Sector Bellcurve from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:43:18 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 357.84 -0.17% .... slip to DAILY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 9:38:11 AM

QQQQ crosses the 7200 tick SMA here as the 30 min cycle downturn pauses.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:36:52 AM

FindWhat.com (FWHT) $10.29 -23.42% Link ... percentage loser.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 9:35:32 AM

QQQQ is rising to challenge both the 7200 tick SMA and the descending short cycle channel top, both at 36.95.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:36:30 AM

Millennium Cell (MCEL) $1.84 +48.41% Link ... percentage gainer.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:34:34 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 426.70 +0.63% ... climbs from opening tick, recaptures DAILY Pivot. SMH $33.30 +0.75%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 9:31:02 AM

Session high for Nymex crude, +1.32% at 51.85.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:29:22 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.73 Link ... ticking higher at $44.95 after reporting quarterly net income of $181.6 million, or $0.41 per share. Analysts were looking for $0.32 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:26:16 AM

Ask Jeeves (ASKJ) $23.25 ... lower at $21.74 (see 09:24:20)

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:24:20 AM

Google Inc. (GOOG) Lower at $182.73 (-$10.81) after RBC Capital Markets downgraded stock to "sector perform" due to concerns about the pricing environment for online advertising. RBC also downgraded Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO), which is lower at $30.55. Both stocks are among this morning's most active. RBC also citing America Online's announced launch of a local search service as reasons for their downgrade.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2005 9:16:34 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.45 and set for selling at $-0.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 9:08:31 AM

The Fed has 12B in 14 day repos expiring today, and has just added a 9B 14-day repo to replace it for a net drain of 3B in that timeframe. We await the 10AM announcement with respect to any shorter term money from the Fed's open market desk.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 9:16:00 AM

QQQQ has 30 min channel support at 36.85. The 30 min cycle oscillators spent yesterday bumping and grinding their way higher as the price held net flat, the essence of a corrective upphase. The 60 min cycle oscillator, however, is only now turning up. It's the 60 min cycle that has the most bullish potential, but all this is occurring within a strong daily cycle downphase that started last week. If QQQQ can break 37.12, then that cycle should be able to deliver upside to the 37.57 area. However, yesterday's very weak corrective upphase was a poor showing for the bulls. Below 37.05, the site of yesterday's post-11AM double top, QQQQ looks entirely bearish on the 30 min, 60 min and daily cycles.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 8:49:32 AM

Bonds have firmed further now, with TNX down 3.1 bps to 4.237%. The daily cycle upphase for TNX is still in progress, but it's entered overbought territory. If Tuesday's doji spike to the 4.3% level isn't exceeded, we will most likely have seen the daily cycle top for the ten year note yield- or if 4.2% is broken on a closing basis.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 8:32:54 AM

Equities haven't budged on the news, QQQQ down .08 at 36.86 here, while bonds have weakened fractionally with TNX pulling up to 4.258% here, -1 bp. Gold is holding its gain, +1.1 at 437 on volume of 218 emini contracts.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 8:31:23 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 62,000 TO 2.65 MLN

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 3,250 TO 308,750

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 9,000 TO 312,000

8:30am U.S. DEC. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED UP 1.4% VS. 1.1%

8:30am U.S. JAN. CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS RISE 2.9%

8:30am U.S. JAN. DURABLE GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.9%

8:30am U.S. JAN. DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS UP 1.5%

8:30am U.S. JAN. DURABLE GOODS EX-TRANSPORTATION UP 0.8%

8:30am U.S. JAN. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FALL 0.9% VS 0% EXPECTED

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 8:01:52 AM

Due to a family medical emergency, I will be away for the market open and am not sure when or if I will be able to return today. However, I will get back as soon as it's possible to do so.

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 8:01:40 AM

Wednesday, the OEX climbed, closing just above the 50-dma. It did not, however, close above a 50% retracement of Tuesday's big range, and so remained in the bearish half of that day's range. Given this information and the shape of the rise, the most likely interpretation agrees with Keene's estimate in last night's Wrap--we were most likely seeing an oversold bounce--but these oversold bounces have caught fire before and can today, too.

Seen on a 10-minute chart, the gain looks like a possible bear flag, stopping Wednesday at the important 10-minute 100/130-ema's and the 50% retracement of the decline that preceded its formation: Link Bears will be watching for a breakdown out of that flag confirmed by a new low, and bulls for a push above the 10-minute 100/130-ema's, confirmed by a new move above 573.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/24/2005 7:44:41 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1191.25, NQ 1498.5, YM 10677 and QQQQ -.06 at 36.88. Gold is up 1.50 to 437.40, silver +.049 at 7.492, ten year bonds +.1406 at 111 9/16, and crude oil +.40 to 51.575.

We await the 8:30 releases of Durable Orders for January, est. .1%, initial claims for the week of Feb 19th, est. 308K, and at 10AM, the Help Wanted Index for January, est. 38.

Linda Piazza : 2/24/2005 6:35:17 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei closed higher, helped by its exporters. Many other Asian markets closed higher, too, despite rising crude costs, with crude to eventually hit a four-month high during the overnight session. European markets are mixed, but the ones most commonly watched on these pages trade lower, hurt by those crude costs. Our futures are modestly lower, drifting off the post-cash-market-close high all night. As of 5:58 EST, gold was up $0.60, and crude, up $0.34. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After two days of losses, the Nikkei traded modestly higher Thursday morning, moving into the gap from Wednesday. It climbed higher into that gap in the afternoon, but closed off its high of the day. It closed higher by 30.97 points or 0.27%, at 11,531.15. On hopes that the U.S.'s CPI numbers would lessen the chances of a speed-up in interest-rate hikes, exporters rose. A firming of the dollar also helped. Steelmakers rose after a report that Rio Tinto was raising the price of iron ore sold to Nippon Steel, on the thought that steelmakers might be able to pass on cost increases to consumers.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but the ones commonly watched in this report all gained. Reportedly, Taiwan may allow mainland Chinese financial institutions to open representative offices on Taiwan. The converse has already been allowed, with seven Taiwan banks with offices on the mainland, with those representative offices not allowed to lend money or take deposits. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.11%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.93%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.76%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.74%. China's January PPI increased 5.8%, down from December's 7.1% increase. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.04%.

European markets also are mixed, but the ones commonly watched on this page trade lower or near the flat-line level. Germany's January Import Prices rose a slightly-less-than-feared 0.8% month over month, but only 0.3% excluding oil and mineral oil products. Germany's Brandenburg February CPI increased a stronger-than-expected 0.5% month-over-month. It was up 2.2% year-over-year, with the January year-over-year figure at 2.00%. Higher energy costs were cited as the reason for the increase, with today's higher crude costs not helping sentiment after that number. Brandenburg is only one of six German states, but this number does pinpoint the effect higher crude costs is having.

Deutsche Bank upgraded European chip manufacturer Infineon Technologies to a buy rating, with that stock rising in early trading. Swiss food and beverage manufacturer Nestle rose despite a 1.4% decline in sales for 2004, gaining because of an announced plan to return cash to shareholders. Nestle cited higher materials costs, poor weather conditions and the Western European business environment as reasons for the poor showing. That poor weather may be one of the reasons for declines in Europe today, with a cold snap described as "Siberian" hitting Western Europe on the same day that crude climbs to a four-month high.

As of 6:09 EST, the FTSE 100 was down 1.70 points or 0.03%, at 4,986.80. The CAC 40 was down 7.53 points or 0.19%, at 3,969.66. The DAX had fallen 17.97 points or 0.42%, at 4,292.69. The DAX has been dancing around the 4,300 level for a couple of days now.

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