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OI Technical Staff : 2/25/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 6:23:58 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... adjusted some stops on XMSR and ALTI, but nothing more. My plate is getting pretty full at this this point. If there were ANY points I'd take home with me this weekend, it was my comment last week (even after I profiled the DIA Apr. $106 puts) that DIA $106.00 was NOT going to be a cake walk for BEARS. This week's low was $105.99. Second point is that it couldn't have been MINUTES after I thought it a good time to try and BUY BACK those previously sold MMM April $90 Calls that the rebound for the major indices really seemed to take hold. This week's trade blotter of CLOSED trades at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 5:17:21 PM

Subscriber Question I received .... "Does anybody know which data provider has streaming quote bid and ask for S&P future options?"

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 4:41:55 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... I want to raise a stop on 200 shares of the Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $4.33 -4.20% that was profiled on 02/10/2005 to $3.85.

Tab Gilles : 2/25/2005 4:11:35 PM

Major indicies over the past 2 months. Link

Tab Gilles : 2/25/2005 4:02:36 PM

IJK Mid Cap 400 Growth ETF. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 4:00:04 PM

The BIX is pulling back into the close, but looks as if it will likely hold above the 200-sma and -ema.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 4:00:55 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 637.07 +1.51% Link ... strong too Tab. Encouraging for the small caps to see such a move back above the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA's. Very bullish implications from this type of MACD setup.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 3:59:15 PM

The daily QQQQ continues to hug the 22 day EMA and looks to head out not on daily cycle buy signals, but with the daily cycle downphase stalled just the same. Like the 4.26% level for the TNX, the 37.57-.60 level acted like a magnet today. Link

Keene Little : 2/25/2005 3:57:10 PM

LOL Linda, when the TRAN hits 3800, then 3900, then... we'll be saying "I'm sure it will roll over from here now."

Tab Gilles : 2/25/2005 3:56:08 PM

$MID SP 400 Mid Cap Index making new highs. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:55:39 PM

It looks as if GE might eke out a modest gain, perhaps in the ten-cent range, but it hasn't been able to break above that gap resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 3:55:12 PM

Siebel Systems (SEBL) $8.70 +0.23% ... at Goldman Sachs presentation in Arizon, company saying it can't be as effective as it could be, if it were larger and company continues to seek more acquisitions in order to supplement its products and generate additional growth. One could take SEBL's comments as the company saying it doesn't see a lot of organic (within) growth at this point.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:52:30 PM

Keene, the TRAN is a lot like the SOX in that it sometimes overshoots targets, isn't it? I always think of the TRAN as a stodgy old index, but it doesn't move like one when it gets going, as indicated by its current ATR (Average True Range) of 51.96! However, I also note that there was an inverse H&S on the TRAN's 60-minute chart, but one that formed sort of within a congestion zone. It's just now meeting its upside target of about 3718. Maybe now it's time for a rollover? Laughing.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:48:13 PM

The TRAN is not near a weekly closing high. It's got 80 points to go. Its sister index, the Dow, is aiming for its December closing high of 10,827.12, with the Dow above that now at 10,842.94. The two need to corroborate each other with closing highs within a relatively short period of time or there's bearish divergence according to Dow theory, although every time I read about Dow theory there's a new wrinkle I didn't find in the last resource I had read, so that I find myself misquoting.

Keene Little : 2/25/2005 3:46:13 PM

Linda, referring to that pattern on your daily chart of the TRAN (3:38), a typical projection out of those is the same distance that price rose into the start of the pattern is the distance it will go from the last low. This projects to 3703.56 which has been exceeded. With that price objective having been met, it could/should reverse back down at any time.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:44:39 PM

The SPX is aiming for its late-December weekly closing high of 1211.92, with the SPX at 1211.70 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:42:37 PM

The OEX is trying for a new weekly closing high, with the 2/06 close at 577.18. Will it make it?

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:38:03 PM

Daily chart of the TRAN: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 3:35:08 PM

XM Sat. Radio (XMSR) $28.85 -4.31% ... it's not on the "buy list" today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 3:33:01 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,211.68, DIA $108.38

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:26:57 PM

Some indices hitting new daily highs. The SOX and BIX aren't. Yet. The TRAN is making up for them, however, zooming higher.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:23:15 PM

GE still hasn't been able to build on yesterday's gains, still stumped by that gap zone on its daily chart.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 3:22:11 PM

Here comes eBay $42.32 -0.07% ... hasn't been able to get above $42.40 since 11:00 AM EST.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:15:45 PM

New push up in the SOX, above the 200-week sma. Not sure if it will hold, but I've thought all day that there would be an attempt to close the SOX above that average. Just wasn't sure and am still not sure, if it will be successful. Keltner lines still separate below the 439.50-441 level, so that a fall could gain momentum if the SOX were to break below that zone.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 3:15:28 PM

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,525.68 +0.60% ... only equity based index to not achieve its WEEKLY Pivot (1,529.77) at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 3:15:40 PM

Volume remains very light, with 65M QQQQs traded so far- 2/3rds of yesterday's lighter-than-average volume. With the daily cycle downphase in jeopardy from the QQQQ bounce, it looks like the market's unwilling to bet on the outcome of this relatively light volume 2-day pop. As noted this morning, a close north of the 37.57-.60 zone would likely be enough to generate an premature preliminary daily cycle buy signal, while below that, the downphase should remain. Unless volume picks up and/or price moves significantly from here, we'll likely be left holding a question mark in that key timeframe.

In the shorter timeframes, the 30 min cycle is trying to start its downphase from overbought territory, while the 60 min is just approaching the top of its range. Any surge from here should have trouble at 37.70, and should not surpass 37.80-.82.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:13:44 PM

The advdec line attempts to break out to a new high. No weakness there yet.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 3:08:41 PM

The ten-minute 21-ema is still holding as support for the OEX, SOX (although being tested currently), RLX, and TRAN.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 3:11:32 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link 03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 3:21:52 PM

By no means are my XMSR and Bear Stearns comments a backhanded slap on Bear Stearns. They've been one of the better shops of late on their market/stock calls. Everyone will be "wrong" once in awhile (some more than others) and it can be a trader's strategy to try and inflict as much pain on the guy that's wrong, until he/she can prove themselves correct.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 2:51:29 PM

Careful, bulls. The SOX is back below its 200-sma, and, like the BIX, supporting Keltner trendlines on the 15-minute chart are beginning to be strung out widely, indicating that if a drop got started, some momentum might gather here, too. It hasn't, and there's no guarantee that it will. A strongly performing stock or index will find support on a single Keltner channel line and doesn't require a converging of support, but watch. The advdec line is still strong.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 3:03:55 PM

XM Sat. Radio (XMSR) ... earlier today I mentioned Bear Stearns had defended the stock yesterday. Here's a Level II capture taken minutes ago. Sometimes it is "fun" and informative to see what a broker is actually doing, or where they're at after an upgrade/downgrade, or making comments about a stock. Helps put you the trader in the Market Maker's shoes. Link Level II source: Ameritrade

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 2:46:36 PM

Lower high on the SOX's 15-minute chart? Maybe. Needs to be confirmed by a drop below 438.77, with the SOX at 439.88 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 2:43:50 PM

Just took a look at the BIX's 15-minute Keltner chart. The BIX is having slight difficulty with 15-minute Keltner resistance near 364.89. Nothing terrible just yet, but supporting trendlines are beginning to be strung out a bit below it, so that there's danger that a drop, once started, could gain some momentum. Bulls want to see 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 363.53, or at least above 362.67.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 2:44:50 PM

The CRB is north of 300 for the first time in approx. 28 years- my charts don't go back that far. +2.08 at 300.12, led by soybeans, cotton and corn, +5.23%, 4% and 3.98% respectively. 18 year quarterly candle chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 2:41:12 PM

The BIX has posted a strong climb so far after breaking back above its 200-sma and -ema's, also climbing back above the neckline of its H&S. A H&S failure? Could be. Bulls don't want to see a long shadow left behind or a close below those 200-sma and -ema's, but there's no sign yet that such a thing would occur.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 2:40:18 PM

XM Sat. Radio (XMSR) intra-day chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 2:38:53 PM

I like seeing others' charts of different indices, to get a different perspective on what's happening. Here's one interpretation of the Nasdaq's action, with the rise the last couple of days bringing it back up to retest a broken trendline and moving averages. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 2:35:47 PM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert .... let's lower our stop on XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $29.12 -3.38% ... to $29.40. Has recouped its DAILY S1 and RED #3.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 2:31:55 PM

The OEX is back at an important resistance zone, but one from which a breakout would be important, too: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 2:30:57 PM

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $5.17 -7.16% ....

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 2:29:54 PM

XM Satellire Radio (XMSR) $29.12 -3.41% ... didn't get "spectacular" volume build on that low. Has me thinking stock's a little "oversold" at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 2:27:41 PM

Major indices sure look like they're going to close at their highs of the session.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 2:24:51 PM

If you're already in a bullish position, there's nothing to do but ride the OEX higher, following it higher with your stops, too. The OEX is again testing 60-minute Keltner resistance, for the time being still showing Keltner-style bearish divergence as it does. However, that can be erased, and the OEX is trying its best to do so. The 15-minute chart has been fairly predictive of action today, setting a 576-578 target for today, and the OEX is now also approaching the current 578.67 upside resistance on that chart. I'm not sure how strong that resistance is, since the channel line turns higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 2:23:52 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 2:20:44 PM

QQQQ's testing 37.60 here as the short cycle begins to turn up. Bulls want to hold north of 37.57 to reignite the 30 and 60 min channel upphases: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 2:16:56 PM

Ten year treasuries are testing the rising support line that coincides with the now-toppy daily cycle upphase. Link While the move is minimal today, with TNX -.5 bps at 4.276% here, any closing weakness in the yield will be building cause for the reversal suggested by the 10-day stochastic. A close above 4.3% could deliver the trending move for which bond bears are hoping, but the more likely outcome will be a downphase from here- kicked off on a close south of 4.24% and confirmed 4 bps below that on a break of 4.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 2:12:58 PM

XM Sat. Radio (XMSR) ... screen capture of option chain as yesterday's low violated. Link Option chain I showed yesterday .... Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 2:07:54 PM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $28.95 -4.0% ... that was a "bad tick" to $28.00, but be ready as we lose yesterday's low!

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 1:58:20 PM

Now that the OEX has slowed its ascent and has spent some time consolidating, I'm switching back to watching the 10-minute 21/100/130-ema's. The OEX just found support at that average about 30 minutes ago. It's at 576.31 as I type. The TRAN bounced off the same average, now at 3695.35.

Tab Gilles : 2/25/2005 2:00:12 PM

EUR/USD & GLD Can the EUR/USD continue to rise? Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 1:53:03 PM

EBAY $42.19 -0.42% .... Jonathan... what are you "key stocks" right now for analyzing the QQQQ's direction?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 1:49:19 PM

The short cycle downphase that has been in progress for the past 2 hours is getting oversold, not yet maxxed out but getting close. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 37.40, and it should take a short cycle trending move to get through that level. In other words, the decline so far looks corrective, generating poor downside price traction. Unless the 30 min cycle bears pick up the ball, this decline could reverse - marked by a break back above 37.60. A break above 37.60 or below 37.40 should set the direction for the 30 and 60 min cycles. The middle of that range remains choppy in the meantime- and volume is still very light.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 1:44:37 PM

Intuit (INTU) $41.55 +1.71% ... H&R Block (HRB) $50.30 +6.93% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 1:40:48 PM

GE has not been able to push above that gap zone I noted in my 12:18 post, and now sports a doji under that zone. The day is far from over, however.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 1:39:39 PM

TRAN and OEX bouncing from the two-minute 100/130-ema's: SOX not quite. The OEX may be finding the two-minute 21-ema now to be resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 1:30:50 PM

I really thought EBAY could make a run at its WEEKLY R1 ($43.78) today, but as the session progresses and I see the QQQQ having had some trouble at WEEKLY Pivot, I'm starting to doubt that.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 1:28:40 PM

SOX testing the two-minute 100/130-ema's now, leading the pack down. The OEX isn't quite there. The TRAN isn't, either, but closer than the OEX, with the TRAN's two-minute 100/130-ema's at 3694.16 and 3690.30.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 1:26:30 PM

The TRAN hovers just under 3700, at 3697.38 as I type. The SOX has dropped back below the 200-week sma. Bulls do not want to see it end the day below that average after having pierced it. It's still within striking distance, and this may be a real fightout. For the record, though, I won't particularly trust a tentative, just-barely-at-the-last-minute push to close the SOX above that average today, if that's what happens. When I was first studying technical analysis, I was struck by Pring's assertion that a breakout needed to be confirmed by a period of time in which it was maintained or by a certain percentage move above the breakout level, depending on the underlying being studied. At that time, I was scalping 40 or 50 options contracts, in and out several times a day, and the idea of waiting for that confirmation just seemed foolhardy to me. Of course you can't do that when scalping--the move would be over by the time you decided you had enough confirmation--but we're talking about confirmation of whole-market strength or weakness being predicted by a SOX move above a long-term resistance level, with the SOX being noted for overrunning resistance or support. While you can go with the flow, you can also be aware that the tap might be turned off any moment and not plan on watering your whole investment lawn with a new and unproven well.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 1:24:50 PM

QQQQ failed on its last bounce attempt off 37.50, just below the 7200 tick SMA. That failure has the 30 min channel rolling over now, but price needs to break and stay south of 37.50 for 5 minutes minimum to start a new 30 min cycle downphase. 37.55 must hold as resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 1:26:20 PM

QQQQ $37.51 +0.26% .... WEEKLY Pivot $37.70 marks session high. EBAY) $42.20 -0.40% .... stock has been either side of its WEEKLY Pivot $42.14. This week, EBAY didn't quite trade its WEEKLY S1, while the QQQQ did. Within the pivot matrix, EBAY become a "key" stock for indications of strength for the QQQQ in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 1:20:01 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link Look at the number of new highs on the NYSE! "There's two markets.... NYSE and NASDAQ." The new highs on the NYSE aren't just energy-related stocks either. Homebuilder, steel, industrial metals, chemicals also paving the way. I must say that I'm VERY SURPRISED at what a quick turn toward new highs we've seen.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 1:15:45 PM

I didn't want to crowd too many ideas into one chart, but if you've looked at the Keltner chart linked to my 1:10 post, take a look at it again and note the phalanx of channel lines coming together near 572.17-573.22. This suggests that this zone might be strong support on a pullback. That configuration can change by the time a pullback occurred, but I wanted you to note the current existence of such support.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 1:10:45 PM

For those unfamiliar with nested Keltner charts, it can be difficult to decipher much information from the squiggle of lines, but bear with the explanation of current bearish divergence shown here (OEX, 60-minute) and you'll figure it out: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 1:08:44 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link just noting today's QQQQ high. Smack on its WEEKLY Pivot. That might have been correlative with that little "pop" in the VIX.X from WEEKLY S1.

Tab Gilles : 2/25/2005 1:08:23 PM

Weekly $GOLD/$USD Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 1:06:37 PM

Volume is running lighter than yesterday for QQQQ, with 45.8M shares traded so far. Volume is weak on this decline from the highs, with 37.50 holding as support so far. The 30 min cycle upphase is stalling, but the 60 min contines to point higher- a good recipe for continuing chop.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 1:04:51 PM

The OEX, TRAN, and SOX are now below their two-minute 21-ema's, headed up to see if that average is now resistance. If it holds as resistance in each case, the 100/130-ema's may then be tested. They're at 575.98 and 575.48 in the OEX's case.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 12:57:20 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 1:02:23 PM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... Let's lower the stop on XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $29.23 -3.05% to $30.05 from $30.65.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 12:47:14 PM

Many indices now testing their two-minute 21-ema's: OEX, TRAN, SOX, with the SOX, at least, easing just below that average.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 12:45:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 12:44:30 PM

A caveat to my 12:41 post agreeing that bearish divergence might not be particularly important on a two-minute chart: we're talking about options trades here. For futures traders, that might very well be important.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 12:41:35 PM

Back to find QQQQ chopping sideways at the highs, bouncing from 37.57 on the last dip. The 7200 tick SMA is up to 37.53, and the morning highs are at 37.50. A break below 37.50 should be enough to arrest the 30 min cycle upphase, and after 5 minutes should kick off a new downphase. Until that occurs, however, the bias remains bullish based on the break of 37.60.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 12:41:35 PM

Reader Question: Quick question regarding the two minute OEX chart you posted at 9:14 showing the touches on the 21 period ema...

I see the MACD in a distinct downtrend while the OEX goes higher. This would be considered a bearish divergence, would it not? Is this sort of divergence, on this kind of short-period time frame, generally significant?

Response: Great question, P. That would be considered bearish divergence, and I almost mentioned that when posting the chart, except that it was just a two-minute chart. As you surmised, bearish divergence showing up on a two-minute chart would not be as important as bearish divergence on a longer-term chart. On any chart, however, such bearish price/MACD divergence remains a warning only that the movement might not be as strong as it appears, and to be watchful for a price reversal. We can see such bearish divergence continue for a long while before prices actually reverse, and such bearish divergence can sometimes be undone. For the record, the OEX's push higher at noon also produced bearish price/MACD divergence.

A perhaps more important bearish price/MACD divergence can be seen on the OEX's daily chart, offering a warning to bullish traders, but not yet proving that the OEX is going to turn down again. Link Note, however, that MACD tries to curl up again. If it's successful in doing so, and especially if it can break up through that descending trendline before the OEX retreats to a low lower than January's, the divergence will have been erased. Note, too, another configuration on that same chart: a potential continuation-form inverse H&S. I don't trust these continuation-form inverse (or regular) H&S's as far as I can throw them, but still they should be watched.

Compliments to this new reader for spotting that divergence. Keep watching.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 12:37:10 PM

DIA Option Chain at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 12:27:07 PM

The SOX, too, has mostly been bouncing from its two-minute 21-ema, and is currently testing that average at 442.33, with the SOX at 442.31 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 12:25:13 PM

VIX.X 11.29 -2.42% .... 5-minute bar chart with my QCharts' DAILY and WEEKLY Pivot levels turned on. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 12:22:55 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 12:19:46 PM

OEX two-minute 21-ema at 577.11.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 12:18:41 PM

Some notes on GE's daily chart: Link

Tab Gilles : 2/25/2005 12:16:45 PM

$SOX.X December 450 high re-test more likely. Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 12:15:41 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link 12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 12:04:32 PM

Ten year treasuries are having a choppy session, back to positive territory with the TNX down 1.1 bps at 4.27%, still holding onto that 4.26% level.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 12:01:08 PM

OEX's two-minute 21-ema now at 576.64.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 12:02:35 PM

eBay (EBAY) $42.26 -0.21% ... has been holding its DAILY Pivot all morning. 5-minute bar chart has MACD below zero, but just crossing back above its signal. Gooood look'n day trade long with target to $43.30. (Disclosure: I currently own a bullish position in eBay)

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:58:14 AM

And the OEX has met the upside target predicted by the 15-minute Keltner channels. This is potential resistance, too, so bulls don't want to see a quick reversal here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 11:56:38 AM

There goes 37.60 after a brief pullback to 37.55. If the bulls can hold above that level, the daily cycle bears will have fumbled.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:56:40 AM

Last weekend, my Traders Corner article talked about H&S failures, among other topics. There's certainly been one on the SOX's 60-minute chart, with the SOX minimally confirming a H&S early this week, only to shoot back above the neckline and straight up. Now, though, the bulls need to maintain this morning's breakout as the SOX approaches the 2/15 high of 445.14.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 11:55:07 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.09 +0.64% ... strong move through/above DAILY R1/WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 11:54:36 AM

QQQQ challenging 37.60 QQQQ here at a new session high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 11:53:14 AM

3M (MMM) $84.60 +0.39% ... high of session. I think that was a bad tick at $84.89.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 11:51:31 AM

XM Sat. Radio (XMSR) $29.30 -2.81% ... updated day trader's chart with lower 5-MRT and DAILY Pivot levels at this Link Bear Stearns' Market Maker ID is BEST for those of you with Level II

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:44:36 AM

New SOX HOD, challenging that 200-week sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 11:42:42 AM

QQQQ's trying to bounce from a higher low above 37.40, but volume is declining with the rise in price. If QQQQ can't break the prior high of 37.55 on this attempt, the short cycle downphase should kick in, confirmed with a break below 37.40. A break above the high will need to clear 37.60, above which next resistance will be at 37.80-.82.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 11:39:15 AM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $29.30 -2.81% ... Yesterday we looked at the option chain of XMSR. Today I'm seeing less $32.50 action. March $30 call/put and now some March $27.50 call/put action.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:34:44 AM

TRAN at 3696.08, just below the next round-number resistance at 3700.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 11:34:30 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.29 -5.19% ... I day trade shorted some SIRI this morning in my personal account and I'm looking to cover here.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:30:18 AM

The BIX drops back slightly from the 361.50 level, but not far yet.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:29:40 AM

The OEX's two-minute 21-ema has now risen to 576.62.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 11:26:57 AM

Gold is back to negative territory here, down .60 at 435.20, with silver holding an 11.7 cent loss at 7.26. But HUI has just ticked fractionally positive, up .19 at 214.81, XAU back to unchanged at 98.53. Nymex crude is down .025 at 51.35 here.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:19:22 AM

OEX's two-minute 21-ema now at 575.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 11:18:32 AM

The VOX is down 17.84% or 2.37 to 11.03 according to my IB feed.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:18:33 AM

The SOX's 200-week sma is at 441.46, with the SOX at 440.61 as I type. Be wary of a small throw-over, but otherwise watch for either a downturn or a strong thrust through it. I would imagine that there will be a push to maintain that average into this week's close, with the ability to do so still uncertain. Wouldn't that make a good headline for market bulls? The first weekly close above the 200-week sma since March, 2002? Note, however, that the 200-week ema is just overhead, too, at 454.48, and that does sometimes play a part in S/R, although not as clearly as has the -sma.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 11:16:50 AM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert -
Short @ 1200.50, stop 1200.50
Cancel the short trigger. I like the impulsive look of this move so maybe we can ride this one for a few days. If you are inclined to take profits and reverse short I would watch the Dow 10800 level closely for signs of a rollover and interpolate 10800 with whatever level ES is printing at the time. If ES is printing 1209.50 that could be a good area to go short.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 11:14:31 AM

QQQQ update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:13:15 AM

The TRAN still lingers at the potential double-top level, not yet following the BIX into a refutation of the double-top formation. It may be trying as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 11:11:26 AM

Buy Program Premium SPX 1,206.75, DIA $107.88

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:11:04 AM

The OEX's two-minute 21-ema is at 575.03. Bulls want to see the OEX continue to bounce from that average on any pullbacks.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:10:24 AM

BIX at a new HOD, undoing the double-top theory on its chart unless there's an immediate reversal back through 361, leaving only a candle shadow behind.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:09:25 AM

RLX lagging a bit. It hasn't approached this morning's high yet, but is trying as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 11:09:19 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 37.55 here, now testing key daily cycle confluence resistance to 37.60.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:08:01 AM

Potential double-top on the BIX's chart, too, with the two tops being yesterday's late-day high and the just-reached one. Market bulls want to see the BIX reach a new HOD and charge past 361.50, then holding that level.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 11:16:23 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link 11:00 Internals at this Link

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 11:07:31 AM

I have to leave for the day. Look to other writers for direction and use your own judgement as to when to close the long play and/or get short. I will leave the official profit target/short trigger at 1209.50

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:06:15 AM

Potential double-top on the TRAN's intraday chart today. TRAN turning down slightly from that double-top level. Watch for a breakout above 3700 as an invalidation of the double-top or a downturn through 3677.58 as confirmation of it.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 11:05:31 AM

ES Trade - Entry Point Alert -
Go short with a touch of 1209.50, stop 1211.50

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 11:03:52 AM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1200.50, raise stop to 1200.50
Set an upside target for this play @ 1209.50

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 11:04:01 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows an attempted breakout now. We'll have to see what the just-begun 15-minute period shows by the close to be sure. Bulls want to see a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 575.26. Trouble is, if shorts pile on, the OEX may already have reached the upside target of 577.87 before the 15-minute period concludes!

Bulls should continue to follow the OEX higher with their stops. A SOX test of its 200-week sma is not far ahead, so be watchful, and say thanks to Marc for reminding us a couple of weeks ago to watch that average.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 11:03:08 AM

QQQQ chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 11:00:17 AM

QQQQ's breaking the morning's downtrend, coming in for a retest of the session high. 30 and 60 min channel resistance are at 37.52 and 37.55 respectively, just below they key confluence resistance for the daily cycle. The head and shoulders pattern is invalidated by this surge.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 11:00:26 AM

Conservative traders can take +4 right now... make that +5

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:59:56 AM

I mentioned the OEX would be maintaining yesterday's afternoon trend as long as it kept bouncing from the two-minute 21-ema, as it had begun doing yesterday afternoon. It's still bouncing from that average, seen here in red, despite a couple of minor violations: Link Note: After I had already begun uploading this chart, the OEX shot higher. This move higher may turn the 21-ema higher again, too, if it's maintained, but that 21-ema had begun to flatten just the slightest amount, and I was watching that.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:58:46 AM

ES is breaking out... maybe we will see some of those traders who shorted the top start to cover, or as Keene said, maybe we will get a small throwover before reversing.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 10:58:37 AM

Buy Program Premium SPX 1,203.68, DIA $107.60

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 10:55:08 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $17.96 +19.01% ... steady accumulation from $15.40 this morning.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:55:48 AM

The one thing I do like about today's action is that the Russell and the SOX are leading the charge... AB (ER) is +0.3% and SOX is +0.7%. Having said that, volume has really trailed off as we near the highs.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:50:59 AM

On the OEX's 15-minute chart, the OEX scrambles to maintain its breakout status. So far, it's maintaining support (on 15-minute closes) above a Keltner line currently at 573.85 and certainly above the 572.28 level, so it's maintaining the closest support as bulls would wish. However, it still has not broken completely free of next Keltner resistance, at 574.75 currently. It may climb laboriously all the way toward 576-578 dragging the resistance line higher along with it, but as long as it's there, the OEX remains vulnerable to a pullback of some sort.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 10:49:09 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:48:10 AM

The BIX has inched above the 200-sma, heading toward the 200-ema at 360.67 and the neckline of its H&S, somewhere near the current price to 361.50, depending on how the neckline is drawn. The BIX is now at 360.43.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:45:32 AM

It's not just U.S. equity indices that don't quite know where to go today. Some currency pairs involving the US dollar are kind of waffling around within consolidation zones, too.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:45:18 AM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1200.50, stop 1199.50
Conservative traders can take +2.5 right now if they think we are not going to break out

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:42:55 AM

A/D lines have improved considerably with NYSE @ +622 and Nasdaq now only -40

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:41:28 AM

Great chart, Keene, on the TRAN. (See Keene's 10:14 post.)

For those who are newbies, you might be wondering why you see so many comments on the TRAN in the MM. That has to do with Dow theory, and the TRAN's importance in Dow theory. The TRAN reaching a major swing high and starting down again would have implications for the Dow and also for general market health, although there would need to be corroboration by the Dow (and the utilities). The TRAN often leads the Dow the way that the SOX often leads the Nasdaq. The TRAN is also sensitive to changes in the economy.

Conversely, a new TRAN breakout would also have implications for the markets and would also need corroboration according to Dow theory.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 10:36:00 AM

QQQQ 37.27 is starting to look like a head and shoulders neckline as well, with an implied target around 37.04: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:34:58 AM

Mark, I, too, am getting far fewer emails. I think the problem may be that readers can no longer send emails individually from the "Contact Us" portion of the MM. However, if you address an email to one of us individually and send it via "Support," it will be forwarded to us. We cannot post our individual OIN email addresses here in the MM, as they would be picked up by hackers and used against the site. However, do write with any questions. One of OIN's great strengths is that the writers are willing to answer questions, no matter whether from newbies or readers more experienced than the particular writer being addressed!

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:33:47 AM

Shorts were indeed waiting at the highs and the 15-min chart looks like a bear flag at the top. The 10-min chart is trying to print a tweezer top.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 10:33:13 AM

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) 5.41 -3.04% ... lows of session. XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $29.37 -2.65% ... has been weak from opening tick.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 10:31:03 AM

QQQQ $37.36 -0.13% .... yesterday at $37.26, I thought every bear and his/her brother/sister would be shorting at that level with a tight stop. I'd be watching that level and DAILY Pivot to provide early support. Especially with the SOX.X 437.10 +0.67% holding above its WEEKLY Pivot.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:29:28 AM

ES challenging HOD... let's see if the shorts are waiting

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:25:06 AM

A/D lines and TRIN are improving slightly. If we can just get above 1202.50 we may see some acceleration to the upside, although I think there are probably more than a few shorts waiting at the highs.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:22:58 AM

Here'a another question... What happened to all the emails I used to get? Are you readers mad at me? I've taken to crying myself to sleep lately. (grin... JUST kidding). Seriously though, I've only received about 2 emails in the last 2 weeks and I think other writers are experiencing the same shutdown in communication. Don't be afraid to write... we're still here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 10:20:30 AM

QQQQ update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:19:20 AM

The BIX is still challenging the 200-sma, with the 200-ema just above that. The BIX isn't making much headway yet, but shows a tentative inverse H&S on its two-minute chart, neckline at about 360.15, just below the 360.30 level of the 200-sma on the daily chart. I sure wouldn't count on that upside target being met if the neckline is crossed, but would count on it signaling another test of the 200-sma.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:18:55 AM

Since there is nothing to do but sit here and sweat I'll pose a question I've been thinking about lately. What is the average "sweat time" that a futures trader will endure before bailing on a trade that just isn't going anywhere? Anybody have any ideas? I'd say about 2 hours but then I'm a heavy sweater (not to be confused with clothing).

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 10:18:04 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:17:07 AM

GE slightly lower.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:15:53 AM

Bad sign for OEX bears, on a short-term basis. After minimally confirming a H&S on the two-minute chart, simultaneously breaking through the two-minute 21-ema. Then instead of falling to meet what was after all a rather minimal downside target, it gapped higher and began climbing. Not the behavior that a bear wants to see. Bulls should be encouraged over the very short term, but don't want to see a quick reversal, as that would be equally bad news for the bulls. Keep a close watch as the gain already stalls. Know ahead of time how you'll handle that 576-578 level, if approached.

Keene Little : 2/25/2005 10:14:15 AM

Linda, adding to your very long term view of the TRAN (10:00), this much shorter term view, using a 60-min chart, shows how price has so far stopped at the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since the Jan 24th low. It's also finding resistance at the 62% retracement (3683) of the January decline. It's so far sporting a nice shooting star doji. This may consolidate and pullback a little before stair stepping higher to minor new highs (no negative divergences on the charts yet) but I think it's close to topping out (if not here), which is supported by your monthly chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 10:12:47 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link 10:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:03:59 AM

Jane's 9:57 post points to the inconclusiveness of internals, and Mark mentions the advdec line, too. My study of various indices important to the OEX's behavior shows some inconclusiveness, too. Don't get married to either side. I lean more toward the stalemate-to-decline side, but wouldn't even begin to rule out an OEX push toward 576-578 just yet.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:03:46 AM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert -
Long @ 1200.50, raise stop to 1199.50

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 10:03:09 AM

QQQQ reached a new low on the news at 37.30, just atop the 37.27 confluence. The 7200 tick SMA is overhead at 37.40, and the 30 min cycle channel is only beginning to tick down against the still-rising 60 min channel. This is a good recipe for chop- but if 37.27 lets go, a break below 37.20 should kick off a new 30 and 60 min cycle downphase.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 10:02:09 AM

Bad home sales number just released.... (less than expected). I could have told you that from the real estate market around here. It is in the process of topping out with everyone trying to get in under the wire while interest rates are still affordable.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 10:01:36 AM




Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 10:00:58 AM

Here's a monthly chart of the TRAN: Link The TRAN's behavior today and Monday will be important to watch, this chart suggests.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 9:58:56 AM

The A/D lines aren't exactly inspining today. If you subtract the Nasdaq from the NYSE you come out at just about zero.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 9:57:50 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just announced a 4 day repo in the amount of 3B with 7.25B in 2-day repos expiring, for a net drain of 4.25B.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:54:01 AM

GE slightly negative; BIX slightly negative, turning down below the 200-sma but off its LOD; TRAN higher, but pausing below 3700; SOX well off its HOD after punching up toward the 200-week sma. This isn't inspiring a lot of confidence in suggesting new bullish entries, certainly. For those already in OEX bullish plays, the OEX teeters on the neckline of a H&S on the two-minute chart, suggesting a likely pullback to 572.58 or so, the location of the two-minute 100-ema. Bulls do not want to see 15-minute closes beneath 572.10, however, as that would undo the potential setting of a 576-578 upside Keltner target.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 9:53:29 AM

VIX.X 11.78 +1.81% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 10.89, 11.22, Piv= 11.80, 12.13, 12.71

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 9:52:52 AM

Ten year treasuries are negative ahead of the Existing Home Sales data due in 7 minutes, with TNX up 1 bp at 4.291%.

Mark Davis : 2/25/2005 9:51:39 AM

ES Trade - Entry Point Alert -
Go long ES now... 1200.50, stop 1198.50

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 9:47:04 AM

April gold has made it to 436, now 20 cents in the green, with HUI up .35% at 215.37 and XAU +.38% at 98.9.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 9:46:58 AM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) $62.36 +2.01% ... Prudential raised it rating on the oil/gas sector to "favorable" from "neutral" and upgraded XOM to "overweight."

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 9:41:20 AM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $29.67 -1.59%.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:42:46 AM

SOX moving ever closer to its 200-week sma. As Marc has pointed out, this has been long-term resistance for the SOX. The TRAN moves higher still. However, the BIX and RLX don't appear to be participating to the same degree, and GE struggles to stay steady.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 9:39:59 AM

Intuit (INTU) $40.95 +0.31% .... April and July expirations in the option chain. Not the best if trying to play May earnings.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:39:10 AM

RLX gains modestly, but moves up to face broken bear-flag support and the linked 100-ema and 30-sma, all between 435-440.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:38:16 AM

GE still not making much of a gain.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:37:51 AM

The OEX bounces again from the two-minute 21-ema, but bulls want to see it above yesterday's high rather than turning down from the 574 level. (Climbing as I type.) If it does turn down, there's the potential for a H&S on the two-minute chart, which, if confirmed, would send the OEX below the 21-ema, perhaps down to retest the two-minute 100/130-ema's at 572.35 and 572.03, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 9:37:41 AM

HR Block (HRB) $49.40 +5.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 9:37:01 AM

Intuit (INTU) $40.89 +0.07% .... company's earnings aren't slated for release until May 19. Looking at an option chain.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:35:38 AM

I'm looking at the OEX's 15-minute chart, and the OEX is still not pulling completely free of that last 15-minute resistance, not quite convincing in its setting of a 576-578 upside target.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:34:49 AM

The first two-minute period ended with the OEX balanced on the two-minute 21-ema, the average that had supported it from about 1:15 yesterday afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:34:11 AM

Following strength in semi-related stocks in Asia and Europe last night, which had followed SOX strength yesterday, the SOX posts a small gain today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 9:32:53 AM

Hot Topic (HOTT) $22.23 +5.8% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:32:39 AM

TRAN moves higher. Still mixed signals.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:32:23 AM

BIX turns slightly lower, nothing big, but it's doing so right at the 200-sma. See my 9:04 post for a chart of the BIX.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:31:48 AM

GE opens near yesterday's close, well above the neckline for its H&S on the daily chart, but moving into an area that tends to show gaps, so that gap resistance could soon come into play.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 9:30:58 AM

QQQQ breaks below 37.40 support. Next confluence is at 37.28, which currently lines up with 30 min channel support as well, below which is the 60 min channel bottom.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:30:54 AM

The OEX moves down toward the two-minute 21-ema at 573.48.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 9:25:57 AM

Yesterday's break through 37.12 QQQQ was the move that the 30 and 60 min cycles had been waiting for, and QQQQ closed with synchronous 30 and 60 min cycle upphases. Those upphases are taking place within the context of the broader daily cycle downphase that kicked off last week, and that downphase is still in progress. However, with 37.57-.60 just overhead, a strong continuation of yesterday's move could see that downphase reverse. A close above 37.60 QQQQ today should be enough to abort the daily cycle downphase, targeting daily cycle resistance at 38.15 and potentially as high as 38.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/25/2005 9:29:21 AM

Synaptics (SYNA) $21.01 Link ... jumping $4.00 to $25.01 after regulatory filing showed company's products will still be used in the new versions of Apple's iPod.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 9:14:32 AM

When I left early Thursday afternoon, I was warning that the OEX's breakdown out of its symmetrical triangle was a sideways break and that the OEX had traded sideways ever since. That's never something that bears want to see. Later in the afternoon, that caution about believing too much in the downside proved merited. The OEX broke above the 10-minute 100/130-ema's and moved up, hitting upside Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart. After the tall five-minute candle produced shortly after 2:00, each small pullback was immediately met with buying. Dialing back down to the two-minute chart, it's apparent that buying came on each touch of the two-minute 21-ema: Link As long as that action persists, the short-term uptrend remains intact.

The OEX's climb was accompanied by a strong surge in the SOX, with Thursday's close being on the high of the day, not leaving behind the long upper shadow seen on the last two days. I've also been watching GE's approach to the neckline of a well-formed H&S on its daily chart, and GE saw a strong climb, too, but perhaps into a level of resistance. Most striking to me, the TRAN broke out of the broadening formation on its daily chart, also closing on its high of the day, just below a 61.8% retracement of its recent decline. The RLX, an index I've been watching lately, too, did not look quite as strong, closing below its 30-sma but still springing up from support and making a modest gain.

But it's the BIX's action that most interests me, as those hoping to see more follow-through on the OEX's gain need to see BIX participation. This week, the BIX broke through the neckline of a well-formed H&S formation on its daily chart, also breaking through the 200-sma and -ema. Wednesday's and Thursday's climbs have only served to bring the BIX back up to test that just-broken-through resistance: Link

The TRAN's breakout seems a leading indicator of more bullish good times to come, although the TRAN's climb is testing the upper envelope on a weekly chart, with that upper envelope line usually marking turning points for the TRAN. Today's end-of-week close will be important to see on the TRAN. Market bulls don't want to see a retreat. The SOX posted a strong gain, and seems to be wholeheartedly joining the party, although Marc might argue (don't want to put words in his mouth) that until there's a weekly close above the 200-week sma, now at 441.43, and maybe more than one, it's not certain that the SOX has even been invited to the party. The RLX and BIX show more uncertainty, and the component stocks shared by the OEX and these indices are important to the OEX's performance. It's likely no coincidence that the SPX ended the day's charge by edging just above 1200, either, with that being a price magnet and also an area where new bears might try their hands. As I type, the ES is at 1201, so we'll have to see if this strength carries through to the cash markets, something that doesn't always happen.

The OEX's 15-minute chart shows a potential for the OEX to climb to 577.60, but to hold onto that potential, the OEX should not show 15-minute closes below 571.08 in early trading, and preferably not below 572.72. Bulls don't want to see the OEX break back into that flag it had been building off the Tuesday low. They most definitely don't want to see it break below 570, confirming a bear flag breakdown after trying for an upside breakout.

The upshot of all this is that I see a mixture of signs from different indices, some showing breakouts, others only moves up to next resistance. As long as the OEX keeps following that two-minute 21-ema higher, bulls should keep following it higher with their stops, too, but while seeing the potential for a move to 576-577, I'm just frankly not certain as to whether that potential will be fulfilled.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 8:58:11 AM

Equities have pulled back here, with QQQQ now unchanged at 37.41. Ten year treasuries have weakened, with TNX now down just .3 bps at 4.278%, while gold is up to unchanged at 435.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 8:39:34 AM

Chain Deflator 2.1% vs. 2.0% exp., prior 2.0%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 8:34:43 AM

Ten year treasuries have dropped 1.9 bps to 4.262%, while equities are mostly unchanged in positive territory, QQQQ +.09 at 37.50 here. Gold is up to a 50 cent loss at 435.30, with crude oil down to 51.025.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 8:33:23 AM

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- Iraqi forces captured the leader of an al-Qaida-affiliated terrorist cell allegedly responsible for carrying out a string of beheadings in Iraq, the government said, and 30 people were killed in a string of bloody attacks, among them three American soldiers.

...The government identified the captured cell leader as Mohamed Najam Ibrahim. It said he was arrested in Baqouba, 35 miles northeast of Baghdad, but gave no date for the arrest.


Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 8:30:38 AM





8:30am U.S. Q4 GDP REVISED TO UP 3.8% VS 3.1% PREV EST.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/25/2005 7:56:22 AM

Equities are higher, with ES trading 1202.25, NQ 1522.5, YM 10766 and QQQQ +.05 at 37.46. Gold is down 2.10 at 433.70, silver -.132 at 7.245, ten year notes are up .0625 at 111 3/8 and crude oil is down .30 at 51.10.

We await the 8:30AM GDP data, est. 3.7%, with the Chain Deflator estimated at 2.0%. At 10AM, we get Existing Home Sales, est. 6.7M.

Linda Piazza : 2/25/2005 7:00:58 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei climbed strongly and most other Asian markets gained, too. European markets gain this morning. Our futures are modestly higher. As of 6:47 EST, gold was down $3.20, and crude, down $0.39. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Japan's January Core Consumer Prices, excluding fresh food, fell 0.3, meeting expectations that the number would show increased deflation. Despite this not being good news except for those who want the government's easy monetary policy continued, the Nikkei gapped higher by more than 50 points Friday morning. It charged higher into the afternoon sessions, then flat-lined near the eventual closing level at 11,658.25, up 127.10 points or 1.10%. Early in the session, attention had already turned to hopes for the U.S.'s Q4 GDP. With the dollar also firmer in early trading, exporters rose, with Thursday's SOX gains also helping chip-related exporters in Japan and across Asia. Car manufacturers tended to gain. So did oil-related companies after crude's rise on Thursday.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more gaining than declining. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.30%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.00%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.81%, however, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.68%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.19%.

In Europe, economic numbers proved mixed. January's French unemployment rose to a five-year high despite the expectation that unemployment would not climb. January's French PPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and a less-than-expected 2.8% year-over-year. February's German unemployment rose, but at least rose at a slower rate than had January's. Some also attribute the rise to a difference in the way the number is computed. German states have continued to turn in CPI figures, with some computing that the pan-German number would now likely see an increase of 0.4% month-over-month and an 1.8% increase year-over-year. This is above January's year-over-year figure, but still below the figure sought by the ECB. A research institute reported a rise in February's German consumer climate index. In the U.K., Q4 GDP growth remained unrevised at 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, but was revised higher to 29.9% year-over-year.

All European markets show gains, with techs helping to lead the indices. Fidelity Investments spoke out overnight against the Deutsche Boerse's bid for the London Stock Exchange, and Deutsche Boerse gained as it was hoped that the unpopular bid would be dropped. The FTSE 100, with only one tech stock, gained after favorable earnings reports by U.K. companies. Most banks gained across Europe.

As of 6:47 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 28.70 points or 0.58%, at 5,000.80, trying to reclaim that round-number level. The CAC 40 had climbed 41.69 points or 1.05%, at 4,019.36, also reclaiming a round-number level. The DAX had gained 41.79 points or 0.97%, at 4,346.08.

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