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Jeff Bailey : 3/4/2005 2:41:56 AM

Bullish day trade adjustment alert ... for Stillwater Mining (SWC) ... let's make a couple of adjustments to Thursday's bullish profile. To compensate for any potential FOMC weakness, lets give a little more room to our stop with a stop at $10.50 (I'll keep an eye on palladium futures), but let's also raise our target to at least $12.11 to sell 1/2 of the position (get a little gain under our belt) and then let's see if SWC follows the path of palladium and its retracement levels. I don't want to get greedy, but SWC might be destined for at least $12.91-$13.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/4/2005 2:37:23 AM

June Palladium (pa05m) $208.50 +4.32% ... chart with conventional retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/4/2005 2:13:23 AM

Stillwater Option Chain (SWC) at this Link not much volume or open interest. Wondering what that 100 contracts are doing in the July $10 puts for $0.75? $10 + $0.75 = $10.75 (note today's low if this was a seller). Then 40 contracts in the Oct. $10 Calls ... $10 + $2.35 = $12.35. $12.35?

Jeff Bailey : 3/4/2005 1:57:51 AM

Taxes aren't done, but I'm going to bed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/4/2005 1:56:48 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) ... here's the same chart I was using late last year. Based on today's Palladium futures trade (may be roll over related) I've added a RED retracement to try and get feel/observation of range between Palladium and SWC. You'll note how similar both charts look. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/4/2005 1:43:47 AM

March Palladium ... upside alert I had set here at $203.80. This is 50% retracement of 10/07/04 contract high of $237.00 to recent contract low of $170.60 on 12/20/04. Here's a bar chart of March Palladium where I've placed POTENTIAL Stillwater Mining (SWC) price correlations based on range of retracement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/4/2005 1:43:24 AM

March Palladium ... upside alert I had set here at $203.80. This is 50% retracement of 10/07/04 contract high of $237.00 to recent contract low of $170.60 on 12/20/04. Here's a bar chart of March Palladium where I've placed POTENTIAL Stillwater Mining (SWC) price correlations based on range of retracement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 11:09:40 PM

March Palladium (pa05h) upside alert I had set here at $200.00. Up $2.15, or 1.08%

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:54:12 PM

To find short interest on a stock, go to this Link and type in the symbol of the stock you're interested in. Once you've done that, "click" the flash quotes button. A new window will appear. See the scrolling tool bar "FlashQuotes"? Use that button to scroll down until you see "short interest" among the various menu items.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:32:13 PM

Well... I've got to spend some time on my taxes, then get some rest. I think I'll need it for tomorrow. Have a good evening. e-mini S&P (es05h) 1,211.00 up 1.00. (time 22:22:01)

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:29:51 PM

It might make sense that a short/bear may have had a stop set at $190. Here's a PnF chart from Dorsey/Wright and Associates. Link Palladium had achieved its bearish vertical count of $184 (that column of O from 224-206) and has been basing at $178 support. Might have triggered some additional stops today at $196.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:18:21 PM

Palladium ... seeing news that today's action in Palladium was thought to be program trades set at $190. Chrome hit levels not seen since April 1998, supported by demand for super-alloys in aerospace engines, land-based turbines and turbo-chargers. Chinese low nitrogen chrome was indicated at $6,700 a tonne, up $600.00. Chrome was trading $5,000.00 at the end of 2004.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:11:54 PM

Investment firm and sports advisory company reportedly made a joint proposal to buy all 30 NHL teams for as much as $3.5 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:10:34 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $40.00 ... ticked higher to $40.24 after the computer maker said it authorized a plan to buy back an additional $10 billion in stock. Also raised the number of shares eligible for buyback by 250 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:03:15 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.44 and set for program selling at $-0.66.

OI Technical Staff : 3/3/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:54:57 PM

Doesn't look like anyone's home in the futures monitor tonight.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:54:34 PM

e-mini S&P (es05h) 1,211.25 ... up 1.25 (time 21:44:26)

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:53:35 PM

Could be Linda... I'm watching CNBC and didn't catch it all, but Dennis Miller had somebody on and they were talking about bin Laden too. Not sure if he's dead or alive.... something like that. Was trying to cook dinner ...

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:47:34 PM

I agree, Jeff, about futures' non-reaction to a supposed bin Laden capture. I'm wondering if someone didn't just pick up on Bush's comments about his capture being a prime concern today and run with that.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:44:10 PM

April Crude (cl05j) ... 30-minute interval chart with newly established retracement. Volume turned on is interesting to see where there was interest. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:32:16 PM

I can't say as I see much in the futures markets that would show a "bin Laden" reaction. April Crude Oil (cl05j) is off 26 cents at $53.31. (time 21:00:08)

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:28:56 PM

Jeff, not palladium, and the only thing about auto sales was yesterday's reports of mixed performances among car manufacturers, reacting variously to U.S. auto sales figures that had been released. I'd made a brief mention of it in yesterday's early morning update, but I haven't started my Asia/Europe research tonight. Still trying to track down that bin Laden thing.

I'm still not able to find anything about the bin Laden rumor, except that there is such a rumor.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:14:32 PM

Linda... did you see anything out of China/Asia regarding palladium or auto sales the past couple of days?

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:15:12 PM

e-mini S&P (es05h) 1,210.50 ... are rather quiet. Up 0.50 point. (time 20:57:40)

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:08:46 PM

This is just a rumor and one I have no way of corroborating just now, but forex markets are noting a report that bin Laden may have been captured. Remember that this is an event that may move markets, but not substantially impact underlying market realities.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:03:51 PM

In mid-February, the TLT was up over 4% (in price). That seemed a little too much to me and when I thought home owners should be calling their mortgage lenders if they were looking to refinance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:01:08 PM

Beetle's Balanced Benchmark at tonight's closing values. Link (Note: Basis is from the 12/30/04 close)

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 8:54:50 PM

Beetle's Balanced Benchmark from 02/02/05 after FOMC raised rates 25 basis points at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 8:40:58 PM

Notable quote for March 8 in the Stock Trader's Almanac. "The commodity futures game is a money game - not a game involving the supply-demand of the actual commodity as commonly depicted." - R. Early Hadady

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 8:34:42 PM

Continuous Oil ($WTIC) ... conventional $0.25 box at this Link $0.50 box at this Link $1.00 box at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 8:26:20 PM

April Crude Oil (cl05j) ... with a bullish fit of 38.2% (pink) and pure guess at conventional (blue), which gives us some overlapping levels of SUPPORT. This contract SHOULD NOT fall back below $49.80-$49.77. Traders should also be working on forward month contracts when April expires. April contract at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 7:55:35 PM

April Crude Oil (cl05j) chart I have been folowing with conventional (blue) and bearishly fit 38.2%. Now have some work to do. Link ... quick check of Dorsey's PnF chart shows "bull trap" type of trade at $50.75 and quick reversal back higher with triple top buy signal at $52.25 where current column of "X" builds bullish vertical count to $63.75.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 7:37:16 PM

Closing Market Watch at this Link April Crude Oil Futures (cl05j) traded a high of $55.20 today and all-time contract high. April Unleaded Gas (hu05j) traded as high as $1.545 and also traded above its 10/22/04 contract high of $1.512.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 7:04:50 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 6:56:26 PM

06:49:49 Continued... , and it was brisk compared to yesterday. What's that May $108 Put (DIA-QD) doing? A BUYER has to be thinking $108 - $2.13 = $105.87, while a SELLER has to be thinking $108 + 2.13 = $110.13. I marked yesterday's four most actives with what would have been Tuesday's open interest (pink) where black figures would represent Wednesday's opening interest. All contracts noted would have seen net opening of interest. Do YOU sense the pressure here? Watch that VIX.X tomorrow as the pressure will undoubtedly be released! I added the VIX.X to the MONTHLY Pivot Matrix just in case. Analysis: If the DIA's going back to $106 or lower, it has to break below the WEEKLY Pivot. That's for starters, and if that happens, then there's probably nothing until MONTHLY Pivot. Upside is unknown, thus the pressure. BEARS have rising energy prices on their side and they've got to be wondering "what in the heck is holding things up?"

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 6:49:49 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.25 +0.16% ... here's today's option chain at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 5:53:29 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link I feel/observe a great deal of "pressure" building in the Pivot Matrix and the tone will be set early tomorrow with nonfarm payroll (consensus +225K). Bearish looking closes for NDX/QQQQ (dashed pink) below their MONTHLY Pivots, and WEEKLY R1s for both become important. NDX/QQQQ a little more volatile, and that's where OEX WEEKLY pivot becomes equally important. I focus a bit more on these support levels and VIX.X indications are providing some BEARISH divergence that has yet to unravel. Thus some of the pressure I'm feeling.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 5:28:34 PM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.00 +0.79% Link ... I really thought we might have some short squeeze action this morning (see 09:47:22), but didn't unfold to this point. Stocks with a "shoe theme" are GCO, KSWS, NKE, RBK. I can't fully explain "why" I think PSS is a short squeeze candidate, but this one feels/looks very similar to Children's Place (PLCE) Link , which has been a consistent favorite for bears to have success, then pain in.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 4:41:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... Swing trade long shares of Alcoa (AA) at $31.45, stop is $30.90 with target of $33.00. Day trade long shares of Stillwater Mining (SWC) at $11.01. Adjusted stop lower to $10.70, with target of $11.36. I feel this trade is suitable for a swing trade long from current levels based on recent basing and nice move higher in palladium prices today. However, I will keep in list only if SWC can hold above $10.70. This stock tends to trade choppy, but when it moves, it can move quickly.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 4:07:33 PM

Sell Program Premium DIA $108.27, SPY $121.29.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 4:02:06 PM

The day ended before we were able to see whether that Keltner mid-channel support would hold for the Dow.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 3:59:43 PM

North American Palladium (PAL) $8.00 +6.10% ... had a stronger daily session than SWC did today. Usually the other way around.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 3:58:42 PM

Day trade carry over alert ... will carry the bullish day trade in Stillwater Mining (SWC) $10.86 -0.45% overnight.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 3:55:33 PM

The Dow is moving down toward converging 10-minute Keltner support from 10,815.82-10,825.93. The Dow appears to be trying to settle into an equilibrium condition on this Keltner chart, though, and when a stock or index does that, it tends to move rather more easily than you'd expect through mid-channel S/R, which this is. It tends to bounce from one side to another of a narrowing congestion zone prior to a breakout one direction or another. So, I'm not certain whether we can expect this potential support to hold or to see the Dow move down toward the next Keltner support at a line currently at 10,788.15.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 3:46:41 PM

I'm noticing a lot of potential H&S formations on 30-minute charts for tech-related indices: SOX, Nasdaq, NDX, GHA and GSO (although it's rougher). The DDX is coming close to invalidating its version, proving what we already know: these don't have to confirm. Still, this bears watching.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 3:42:14 PM

The break below yesterday's low and inability to punch back above it has restored the daily cycle downphase for QQQQ, but the bounce off the 37.02 low has succeeded in juxtaposing the 30 and 60 min cycles almost perfectly, with the 30 min cycle oscillator pointed north and the 60 min still pointed south. I believe that this opposition is responsible for the low volume sideways chop below 37.40. The 10 cent 37.30-.40 range remains, and the direction of the break should provide guidance as to which will prevail. Below 37.20 the 30 min cycle will whipsaw back down, while the 60 min cycle should turn up on a break above 37.45.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 3:39:07 PM

For those not reading both sides of the MM, the OEX's pattern is beginning to resemble a cup-and-handle formation, a valid continuation formation. As I mentioned in a post on the Futures side, I don't like the spiky candles on the daily chart nor did I like the way the early rise this morning was not supported by sector action, but perhaps the move in the scattered big caps was presaging a market move. That will need to determined, but as I've been saying, we can use that red resistance zone I've shown several times as a benchmark, as long as moves above are sustained. I may have to widen it up to 580.50, though, because the OEX has this week been falling back from that level.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 3:37:03 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 363.41 -0.21% Link ... fell below their 200-day SMA last week. It (200-day) and WEEKLY Pivot found some buyers today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 3:30:37 PM

Forest Labs (FRX) $43.90 +1.26% Link ... today's trade at $44.00 gets an X on the PnF chart, but still a lot of work for bulls to do.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 3:27:55 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 3:17:04 PM

I have noticed that the Dow has been showing Keltner-style bearish divergence on the 10- and 15-minute charts on each swing high. If that's to continue, the Dow will not show 10-minute closes much above a Keltner line currently at 10,863.33, and might not even do more than barely touch or approach that line on the current swing high.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 3:14:03 PM

QQQQ is doing its best to go nowhere here, and volume has dried up considerably. Price is stuck between the 7200 tick SMA at 37.30 and prior confluence at 37.40- a break of either should be directional. Interestingly, the short cycle downphase is even weaker than the upphase that preceded it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 3:10:14 PM

Alcan (AL) $39.35 +0.58% ... just edged above morning high. Alcoa (AA) $31.20 -0.31% ... still well off morning high of $31.72 and lackluster.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 3:04:25 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 3:00:34 PM

Here's what the OEX's ten-minute Keltner chart shows (I vary the time interval charts I watch according to the speed with which the OEX is moving): The OEX is moving down toward Keltner support that's trying to firm up from 577.34-578.40. Without a sell program or something to push the OEX down strongly, it looks as if that support should hold. If not, the supporting line that's been prompting bounces all week is now at 575.88. A ten-minute close below that line would represent a change in trend.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 2:58:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 2:58:04 PM

The CRB continues its advance, up 1.25 here to 307.90 on strength in FCOJ, Crude oil and Live cattle futures.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 2:51:06 PM

GE falling back toward yesterday's close again.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 2:40:58 PM

The OEX is now at the midline of its rising regression channel and also at possibly light ten-minute Keltner resistance. If the OEX should retreat, as it looks as if it might do, bulls want to see the OEX continue with 10-minute closes above the Keltner line now at 577.95 or at least above the one at 576.76.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 2:40:12 PM

Despite some high volume spikes on the way up, QQQQ feels heavy and is advancing reluctantly, failing at 37.40 on this bounce. The short cycle has topped out despite the 30 min channel upphase. That upphase will persist so long as QQQQ holds above the 7200 tick SMA at 37.28 currently, but it looks like the bulls don't have enough in the tank to force the short cycle to trend in overbought territory. A break below 37.20 for 5 minutes or more should be enough to whipsaw the 30 min cycle back down.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 2:35:55 PM

The advdec line has been climbing since about 12:30.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 2:35:01 PM

Currently, the OEX has a small-bodied, long-legged candle with the body right in that red resistance zone on my chart. The SOX is bouncing off its LOD, but still well below its 200-week sma, the RLX is printing a doji under the 50-sma, and the BIX bounced strongly, but remains below 365. Mixed evidence.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 2:26:36 PM

Bullish day trade carry over alert ... IF Stillwater Mining (SWC) $10.91 (unch) can't make the break above $11.10 before today's close, I would carry this trade overnight. I may also decide to carry this one as a swing trade long over the next several sessions.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 2:23:39 PM

The Russell 2000 has risen to retest the neckline of the H&S that formed within its rising regression channel: Link Bears want to see the RUT fail here while bulls want it to continue rising through this channel.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 2:20:57 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 2:15:58 PM

The OEX is back inside the ascending regression channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 2:14:54 PM

QQQQ breaks 37.35 resistance on a burst of volume. The 30 min cycle is bullish above 37.30-.35.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 2:13:44 PM

Back. The BIX has continued bouncing, but remains between the support of the 200-sma and -ema's just below 361 and the resistance at the converging 30-sma and 100-ema at just above 367. The BIX is at 363.55 as I type, pretty much squarely in the middle of the two, so there's not much yet to be known for sure from the BIX's chart.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 2:11:03 PM

SPY $121.43 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 2:10:48 PM

TRIN 0.97 +6.59% ... back below DAILY Pivot at 1.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 2:03:03 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 2:01:22 PM

Session low for ten year treasuries at 110 21/32, with TNX up 1 bps to 4.389%. To invalidate that toppy daily cycle, the TNX needs to punch strongly through 4.4%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 1:56:56 PM

SPY 121.33 +0.13% ... edges back above DAILY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 1:55:32 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 1:55:22 PM

Earlier today, I noted that it was scattered big caps that seemed to be supporting the OEX. Scanning other indices, I just noticed that the Russell 2000 confirmed a H&S today on its 15-minute chart, and that the current rise is a rise up to retest the neckline. Note, however, that the H&S was formed within a rising regression channel, and the bounce also began at the bottom supporting line. The RUT has not fallen out of that channel yet. (I used a line chart to make it easier to see.) Link Mixed evidence here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 1:51:05 PM

SPY $121.12 -0.04% ... showing "bad tick" and what a trader might do at this Link Could well be a sell program setting up just at DAILY Pivot. Trader might short, tight stop, with downside to the "bad tick" or DAILY S1/WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 1:50:00 PM

QQQQ is testing 7200 tick SMA support here at 37.18, with the pullback taking place on very light volume. A bounce from here would be bullish and suggest a renewed attempt on the 37.30-.35 confluence. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 1:40:36 PM

The "point" of conversation surrounding bad ticks is to use those observations when contemplating a trade entry or exit point. This goes for STOCKS as well as trackers like the QQQQ and SPY. Sometimes we'll see a stock, or tracker being set up for a program sell/buy if the bad tick doesn't make sense as a keypunch error.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 1:35:47 PM

SPY $121.17 (unch) ... "bad tick" just now to $120.80. Now this one is a "bad tick" to be cognizant of.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 1:33:03 PM

QQQQ $37.22 -1.03% ... "bad tick" to $38.22. This week a trader asked me a question about "bad ticks." This one is obvious keypunch error. ($38.22 and $37.22).

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 1:30:42 PM

BA is still climbing. Here's hoping that some of our readers happened to catch the breakout this morning (I didn't, until it was well underway) and are having fun (while making plans to protect profits)!

I don't always run through individual components of the OEX the way I did today. I do always run through sectors important to the OEX because they share components, and there I'll hope to see sector behavior in accordance to what's happening with the OEX. I didn't today. That's divergence, and was the reason that I was saying I wouldn't trust a breakout if one occurred this morning. We were seeing strong gains from stocks scattered across many sectors rather than sector strength supporting the gain. Many of those strong gainers were facing resistance or looked unsupported. Since then, the RLX has turned down from the 50-sma, the BIX dropped back to test its 200-sma and -ema, and the SOX dropped heavily. Some of those sectors are trying to bounce off their lows, so we'll watch. I also noted that I wasn't sure that losses would be deep and warned short-term OEX traders to have profit-protecting plans near what's turned out to be today's low.

I don't know what will happen next, as I believe that depends on the quality of any bounce (corrective, etc.) and whether there's sector support for a move up or a move down.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 1:19:23 PM

The BIX has continued its bounce off its 200-sma and -ema. I consider the bounce automatic, and the BIX has to continue that bounce if bulls are to be satisfied. Still iffy here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 1:16:02 PM

Alcoa (AA) $31.28 -0.06% 3M (MMM) $84.07 -0.56%

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 1:15:14 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.20 +0.12% ... nice little comeback after kissing DAILY S1.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 1:14:52 PM

The OEX is testing the former support of its ascending regression channel, now at about 577.26. It punched above it, but hasn't closed a 10-minute period above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 1:13:03 PM

QQQQ is up against 30 min channel resistance at 37.27, but because the cycle was oversold at the lows, any failure to immediately reverse suggests a new upphase kicking in- to be confirmed by a break above 37.35. If it cannot do so, then we'll be looking at a weak corrective sideways-up phase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 1:11:50 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 1:03:19 PM

The OEX finally rises from the ten-minute Keltner line that had been prompting other rises up through the ascending regression channel from this week. Only now the OEX has fallen out of that channel, and Keltner resistance gathers near the bottom supporting trendline, at about 577.35-577.80.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 1:02:58 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 1:02:03 PM

QQQQ challenges the declining 7200 tick SMA at 37.19, rising on relatively light volume. First sign of trouble for the 30 min cycle bears will be a break and hold above 37.20, with the key confluence remaining at 37.30-.35. The bulls will need more volume if the bounce is to gain momentum.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 12:56:23 PM

Some information on other major OEX components: WMT is off its high of the day, although still above the open and this morning's gap. The resistance I pointed out in an earlier post has held so far, and prices have fallen back below the 50-sma. C not only closed its morning gap, but has erased almost all of yesterday's gains. MER has closed the gap, still holding at bottom-gap support. MDT has dropped almost $0.80 off its high of the day. GE dropped back out of that "gappy" zone I've been pointing out, not able to maintain the day's highs.

I mentioned this morning that we weren't seeing sector support for the OEX, with the exception of the WMT-induced RLX gain, perhaps, but seeing individual stocks gapping up into resistance zones, something that didn't engender a lot of confidence in the upside. Now, we're seeing an important sector test. The BIX has fallen back to retest its converging 200-sma and -ema's, with those averages at 360.92 and 360.81, respectively, and the BIX currently at 361.59, having bounced tepidly off an earlier test of those averages. A drop back through those averages and then 360 would not be a good sign for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 12:51:05 PM

Most Actives ... ELN $7.03 -11.58%, QQQQ $37.14 -1.24%, INTC $24.29 -0.93%, SPY $120.91 -0.21%, AAPL $41.82 -5.21%, SIRI $5.81 -1.85%, MSFT $25.16 -0.43% ... Looks like Jonathan's group gets all the bulk of today's attention.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 12:50:42 PM

Nymex crude is up 1.60 here, +3.02% at 54.65 off a high of 55.10.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 12:45:22 PM

While some other OEX components responsible for today's OEX gains might have been fallen off, BA hasn't. BA represents 0.75% of the OEX, and is currently higher by 3.50%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 12:43:16 PM

Session low for 10 year bonds hrere at 110 45/64, with TNX up .6 bps at 4.385%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 12:36:31 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 12:34:23 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,206.09, DIA $107.79

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 12:33:32 PM

Gold has bounced from a low of 430.20, currently up to 431.90 with HUI -1.13% at 210.82 and XAU -.83% at 97.31. QQQQ broke the previous low after failing below 37.20 and is trying to find support at the 150% retracement below yesterday's range. The 30 min cycle should begin to firm down here, above 36.96 support. A break through that level would be a trending move for the 30 min cycle.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 12:28:52 PM

So far, the OEX is not doing a particularly great job of firming up at the ten-minute Keltner line now at 575.88. Candles are slipping a little lower. If the OEX lingers here too long, resistance at 577.27-578.23 will converge and firm up. Already, it's firm enough that there's a slight possibility that it could back advances. If the OEX punches lower, closing 10-minute periods below that 575.88 level, there's some danger of a decline toward 572.40, according to that chart. I'd certainly keep that 574-ish support in mind, too, though.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 12:23:31 PM

I didn't have to change the annotation on this daily OEX chart before I posted it. So far today, it still fits: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 12:15:01 PM

GE closed the gap, but doesn't go too far below it yet. Still in "testing gap" range.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 12:14:31 PM

Advdec line trying to bounce off its LOD, but tentatively.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 12:12:34 PM

QQQQ is testing 37.20 from below, with the bounce taking place on declining volume. The 37.30-.35 confluence continues to appear as key overhead resistance for the 30 min cycle- it will take a break above it to suggest anything more than a deadcat bounce.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 12:29:09 PM

The slight bullish divergence on the OEX's ten-minute Keltner chart has been erased, but the OEX currently tests the Keltner support that has supported it over this week, with bulls needing to see ten-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 575.98. As I mentioned earlier today, shortly after 11:00, this is a place to have profit-protecting plans in place if you're a short-term trader, just scalping a few points or a conservative trader afraid of a bounce. The OEX may not be bounce, of course, and may now find resistance near 577.50-578.25 if it does, but that's not proven.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 12:00:24 PM

Impressive divergence between QQQQ (-1.3%) and the SPX (-.32%). The Dow is down just .25%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 11:59:13 AM

On the 30 min chart, QQQQ has support at 37.05 and at 36.96. Price is leading the cycle channels lower in what is verging on a trending move, with the 30 min stochastic entering oversold territory.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:51:00 AM

The OEX tests the levels I'd noted in my 11:13 post. Short-term bearish traders had a few minutes to prepare their plans for how they'd handle this possible support. A break below 577 is a break below a trendline supporting the OEX since Monday afternoon, but the OEX has also this week been bouncing from a Keltner line currently at 576.16.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 11:50:00 AM

Bullish day trade adjust stop alert on Stillwater Mining (SWC) $10.83 -0.73% ... to $10.60 for next 30-minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 11:48:26 AM

QQQQ 37.20 being tested now. While we should see some support here, QQQQ is a falling knife below 37.35 at minimum, as the daily cycle downphase is back in gear with the break of yesterday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 11:45:23 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/3/2005 11:47:30 AM

With gold dominated by fluctuations in the Dollar, expect jittery market until the release of the non-farm payrolls report tomorrow morning. With trade expectations hovering around a 220,000 increase, a number significantly below that could trigger dollar selling and therefore support gold.Today's ISM Report exception was the employment index, which soared to a new record high. This has caused a selloff on gold today. Watch the $430 level, or $43 GLD. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:41:00 AM

I wanted to note that sometime soon, within the next two or three weeks, I'm likely to disappear rather suddenly from the MM, but this time for a happy reason. I will become a grandmother for the fourth time (in less than four years!) sometime soon. When I disappear, know that I'll be back on board as soon as possible.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 11:39:45 AM

Stepping away for 30-minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 11:38:44 AM

No sign of support holding yet for QQQQ, with gold and silver also breaking to new lows. Next channel support that lines up with confluence is at 37.20 QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 11:36:30 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:34:08 AM

C, with a 4.09% weighting in the OEX, has closed this morning's gap, testing lower gap support as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:32:26 AM

The TRAN approaches Keltner support from 3738.83-3740.79 that should be firm support (on 10-minute closes). If not, the TRAN is looking weaker than it did. The TRAN has been showing Keltner-style bearish divergence on 10-60-minute charts for days now, although yesterday had reversed the bearish divergence on the five- and seven-minute charts, so we may have an opportunity to see if that matters.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:28:27 AM

GE trying to firm at about the midpoint of the morning's gap range. Not conclusive yet as to whether it will be able to do so.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 11:27:40 AM

Seeing a lot of industrial metal stocks pulling back into DAILY Pivots, firming, then edging back higher. Be alert if they ramp back above session highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 11:26:00 AM

Bonds are slighly lower, with TNX up to a 1.4 bp loss at 4.365%. Crude oil is down a dime from its high at 53.525, +.9% here with the CRB green on strength in coffee, lean hogs and live cattle futures. Gold is down 2.30 at 431.50, 50 cents off its current low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 11:24:15 AM

DIA $108.24 +0.15% SPX 1,210.76 +0.05%

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 11:23:46 AM

VIX.X 12.74 +1.92% ... testing WEEKLY R1 again.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:23:37 AM

CSCO, with a 1.91% weighting in the OEX, retains most of its gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 11:22:28 AM

Back, minus a couple of minutes of data. QQQQ is still holding the 37.40 level, just breaking below as I type. On my chart, 37.50 was never broken, but I'm missing a few minutes there that I can't backfill. The 30 min cycle channel is down to 37.25, with yesterday's low breaking as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:21:59 AM

WMT still going strong, however. MER, another earlier OEX gainer, also drops down to test its morning gap. MDT, a big gainer this morning, is way off its HOD, dropping back toward its opening level, below the October and November swing highs, and currently sporting a long-legged doji.

Tab Gilles : 3/3/2005 11:16:28 AM

$SOX.X I've been highlighting the possibility of a bearish divergence on the SOX for a few weeks and how a retest of 450 would set up a double top. Here are several past chart along with today's. Link Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:16:26 AM

GE dipping down to test this morning's gap.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:13:56 AM

The alignment of 15-minute and 60-minute Keltner channels aren't giving many clues as to next direction for the OEX. Yesterday, the OEX kept testing and then bouncing from a 10-minute Keltner line that's currently at 576.27, so those who might be scalping points today and who might have entered a bearish position this morning need to have a plan in mind for how that level would be handled. There's been a slight suggestion of Keltner-style bullish divergence on that chart, and if it's to continue, the OEX might find support a bit higher, perhaps at the Keltner lines currently at 577.46-577.79 (on ten-minute closes). That's all supposing that the established pattern will continue, which it may not, but it gives scalpers or daytraders some levels to consider for their profit-protecting plans. I'm not at all confident of the upside today, although also not convinced of how much downside there might be, so I'm not advising going long on touches of that 576.27 level, if it should be hit. There's just something funny about markets today.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 11:09:42 AM

Technical problems here- rebooting.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 11:01:09 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 11:00:45 AM

Filled 1,000 at $11.01 in SWC

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 11:00:41 AM

At about 3755 is the 80.9% retracement of the TRAN's drop from its multi-year high to its January low. For the last three days, the TRAN has had some difficulty with that level, climbing above it, but dropping down near or below it. As I type, the TRAN is at 3751.12, off its high of the day.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:59:05 AM

I'm not trying to suggest with all my posts about OEX components that the OEX can't climb, can't break out. But this morning as I was checking sectors, I didn't find particular sector strength other than perhaps the RLX (which also does battle with its 50-sma) upon which to base a belief in the sustainability of a climb. I still don't and that worries me.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:58:53 AM

Bidding 1,000 SWC at $11.01

Tab Gilles : 3/3/2005 11:00:01 AM

MUR came close to a sell on the trailing stop 10-ema. The rise in oil and the UCL news is helping. However, lets see if $100 is a resistance barrier or even a possible double top? Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:56:02 AM

GE, with a 6.13% weighting in the OEX, is also responsible for part of the OEX gains, with GE gapping higher today. Again, though, is this the picture upon which you want to base bullish OEX plays? Link GE could continue to climb, but that's unproven yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:53:53 AM

Bullish day trade long alert .... for Stillwater Mining (SWC) $10.99 +0.73% here to $11.05, stop $10.80, target $11.36 and WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:51:29 AM

North American Palladium (PAL) $7.89 +4.64% Link ... another palladium producer.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:50:35 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $10.99 +0.73% Link ... North America's largest producer of palladium.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:49:04 AM

March Palladium (pa05h) $197.00 +4.89% ... big move here for this industrial metal. Gets a double top buy signal at $190, bearish resistance trend at $200.00. Initial bullish vertical count builds to $234. Trade at $196 is spread triple top buy signal.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 10:47:58 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from a low of 37.36, 1 cent above yesterday's low and the descending 30 and 60 min channel supports. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 37.55- 1st sign of trouble for bears will be a break above 37.50.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:47:46 AM

With WMT's 3.63% weighting in the OEX, its current 2% gain certainly helps sustain the OEX today. But is this the picture upon which you want to trust that OEX gains are sustainable? Link It may be that gains will continue (in WMT and in the OEX), but bulls might be nervously eyeing that gap and that resistance being tested.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:41:16 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 10:40:27 AM

Bonds remain firm, TNX -2.2 bps at 4.357%. Recall that the daily cycle oscillators are very toppy, and rising trendline support on the daily chart is in the 4.34%-4.35% area.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:33:29 AM

The TRAN drops back toward a test of its 10-minute 100/130-ema's, at 3748.99 and 3741.20, with those averages having supported it yesterday and prompted a bounce. Will they today?

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:32:45 AM

Big drop in the SOX on the ten-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:30:38 AM

Aha. The reason for the RLX rise and at least partially (3.63% of the OEX) for the OEX's: WMT.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 10:30:32 AM

QQQQ has broken south from the 7200 tick SMA tractor beam, with the short, 30 min and 60 min cycles now in gear to the downside. To re-validate the stalled daily cycle downphase, QQQQ needs to break yesterday's low, now under 15 cents away.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:37:03 AM

Swing trade long entry point alert ... for Alcoa (AA) $31.45. Trader could round to 300 shares, just less than the full position of $10,000.00 I use as a benchmark.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:26:05 AM

TRIN and VIX both climbing, advdec line dropping, strange non-sector participation in OEX gains: so far, I think I'd be more inclined to trust the downside than the upside until some of these change.

Tab Gilles : 3/3/2005 10:25:05 AM

ISM Report Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:24:35 AM

Lower high on the advdec line.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:25:28 AM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.26 +13.03% Link ... awarded European patent for design, development, and production of titanium oxide structures customized for titanium metal production. Story at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:23:55 AM

Bulls invalidated the potential evening-star formation on the OEX, sending it higher again, toward that next 580.86 Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. It's also sending the OEX toward the top of its ascending regression channel, an area from which we should normally expect a downturn back through the channel again, even if the OEX is going to keep climbing.

Honestly, something is happening here that I don't understand, and so I don't trust what I'm seeing either direction. So far, all I can find is that scattered big caps are gaining, pushing the OEX higher, but that there's no particular sector strength doing it. And so although I started the day prepared to acknowledge an upside breakout if it occurred, I just can't find anything yet that encourages me to trust it if it does. The OEX is not yet over the 580.50 high from yesterday, so no breakout yet anyway.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:19:16 AM

SLB represents 0.72% of the OEX and gains strongly. I'm just not seeing a settled pattern of what's promoting the gains, though, with a lot of stocks higher, but down off their highs already and gains looking tentative.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:17:09 AM

MER is higher, and represents 0.92% of the OEX, but are we sure the OEX is really climbing? Smile. I'm down through the M's and not finding a lot except GE, MDT and BA that would be causing the OEX to move higher. And the search goes on.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 10:15:50 AM

QQQQ took a big move on light volume back up tot the 7200 tick SMA, which stopped the advance to within 2 cents. The 30 min cycle downphase remains intact, but direction is unclear because price is sticking to the midpoint of the intraday channels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:21:48 AM

Altair (ALTI) $4.18 +11.17% .... near-term resistance looks to be $4.39-$4.40. Yesterday we were stopped on 200 shares below the psychological $4.00 level. Bullish fitted 38.2% from the 08/12/04 close to the $3.10 close on 12/13/04 might have the resulting 50% ($3.75) marking yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:12:19 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:11:28 AM

GE still climbing inside that gappy zone, currently facing the 30-dma, to face the 50-dma at $35.97, near the top of that gappy zone. GE is higher, but not in a place that allows bulls to breathe easier just yet.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:10:21 AM

SOX below yesterday's low.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:03:44 AM

Potential for an evening-star reversal pattern (but from within a rising regression channel) on the OEX's 15-minute chart, due to the doji formed the last 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 10:02:30 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 10:02:54 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute chart shows. The OEX faces Keltner resistance at 579.88, on a 15-minute closing basis, but it's a single line and may not be strong resistance. Yet, the OEX's previous and current 15-minute candles are as of now showing small upper shadows that demonstrate failed attempts to break through that resistance as of now. OEX 580.68 looks like stronger resistance, should the OEX rise. The OEX is in the upper, bullish half of the 15-minute nested Keltner channels, traveling higher within an ascending regression channel. Bulls do not want to see the OEX show 15-minute closes beneath 576.60, however, and would prefer them not to be below the line currently at 578.72.

I'm still looking for what's driving the gains, however, still wondering how sustainable it might be despite my willingness to consider a breakout a breakout, if one should occur. I just don't like the SOX and BIX action as yet, and consider them as offering a stern warning to bulls, until and unless they perk up.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 10:01:48 AM

The total put to call ratio came in at .45 for the first half hour- an extremely low reading.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 10:00:54 AM

ISM services 59.8 vs. 60 exp.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:59:38 AM

VIX.X 12.50 (unch) ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 11.84, 12.16, Piv = 12.53, 12.85, 13.22.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 9:57:24 AM

QQQQ is breaking 36.60 here as MSFT prints a session low in negative territory. ISM data due in 3 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:57:12 AM

MDT, a 1.04% component of the OEX, gains strongly today, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 9:54:57 AM

The Fed has just ponied up the full 9.25B remaining to refund the expiring repos, for a net wash for the day. 15.25B expiring, 15.25B added.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 9:54:01 AM

QQQQ update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:53:00 AM

SOX now approaching/testing yesterday's low, but still within the recent consolidation pattern. I'm frankly kind of amazed that the OEX is holding gains with the SOX and BIX not doing much or anything to help, but I do note that the RLX has decided to rise and is currently testing yesterday's high and the 50-dma. I've said before that the shared OEX/RLX components have sometimes been instrumental in market moves, and that may be happening today, but it's certainly worth noting that the RLX is moving higher through a major gap zone from January, and there could be resistance anywhere through here, added to the 50-dma's possible resistance. A strong burst higher by the RLX will help the OEX, but I just worry about the healthiness of the rise without some of these other sectors participating more strongly.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:49:27 AM

Here's what I've found so far in my tedious, alphabetical search of OEX components, as to the reason for its climb: BA is 0.75% of the OEX, and has leaped higher this morning. GE is 6.13% of the OEX and it gapped higher this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 9:49:22 AM

ISM services for February due in 11 minutes, est. 60, prior 59.2.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:48:39 AM

Federated Dept. Stores (FD) $61.03 -0.79% Link ... sames store sales +1.8%

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:47:22 AM

Short squeeze alert .... for Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.20 +2.59% ... 5-minute chart showed one of those "micro h/s patterns." DAILY R2 of $14.81 would mark Tuesday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:45:32 AM

PETsMART (PETM) $28.96 -5.01% ... Legg Mason reiterates "buy" after confusing quarterly earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:43:40 AM

Target (TGT) $52.89 +1.98% Link ... same store sales +9%

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:42:19 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.14 +1.79% Link ... Feb. same store sales +13.5%.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:41:58 AM

The OEX heads higher again, up toward a test of 580 and yesterday's 580.50 high.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 9:40:19 AM

Gold is holding its losses, down 1.80 at 432 while HUI and XAU hold respective .49% and .40% losses. Crude oil closed the morning session +.10 at 53.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 9:39:15 AM

QQQQ is back to and just breaking below 37.65 as bonds make new highs. The 30/60 min cycle bias remains down, but direction is anything but clear following the positive open. QQQQ should remain bearish below 37.65, while bulls will want to see a break above 37.77 at minimum before calling the intraday downphases into doubt.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:38:26 AM

Fred's, Inc. (FRED) $18.70 +4.0% Link ... same store sales +4.1%.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:37:20 AM

RLX isn't gaining much. Looking for the sector responsible for the OEX's gains, and haven't found it yet, except possibly in stocks shared by the OEX and TRAN.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:36:17 AM

The SOX is back below its 200-week sma. It could not hold onto early gains. So far, this isn't encouraging shorts to cover, is it?

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:39:02 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for Alcoa (AA) $31.64 +1.08% Link ... look for bullish entry on slight pullback to $31.45, stop $30.90, target $33.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:35:45 AM

Hmm. The BIX isn't participating in the gains yet today.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:35:01 AM

GE gapped up into that "gappy" zone I've been mentioning.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:33:18 AM

For the last couple of days, the SOX's 10-minute 21/100/130-ema's have looked important as support, and they may now be as resistance. They're at 442.77, 442.33 and 441.48, with the SOX retreating from its first early morning test of those averages. Market bears want that resistance to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:33:33 AM

Alcoa (AA) $31.62 +1.02% ... opens "hot." CIBC upgrading Alcoa (AA) and Alcan (AL) this morning.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:31:14 AM

The OEX climbs into a test of that inverse H&S neckline, pushing through it as I type. Hasn't been a five-minute close above it yet.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:30:39 AM

SOX opens near the flat-line level, as indices are wont to do, and now climbs slightly, but it's early in the day yet.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:29:33 AM

We will open on the OEX with another potential inverse H&S on the five-minute chart, neckline at 578.59.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:27:42 AM

Express Scripts (ESRX) higher at $81.56 +5.6% Link and should generate a triple top buy signal at the open. Strong earnings and upping of guidance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 9:24:33 AM

The Fed has 15.25B in combined 14 day, 3 day and overnight repos expiring today. So far, the 6B 14-day repo has been replaced with a new 6B 14-day repo, leaving 9.25B left to be accounted for with the 10AM announcement.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:23:27 AM

Traders in tech-related indices should note the poor performance of semi-related stocks in the overnight sessions. See my 7:08 post for information on a disappointing earnings report by Hynix Semiconductor and a trimming of growth estimates in an industry report. If there's no downside follow-through this morning on semi weakness in Asia and Europe, we could have some shorts scrambling to cover, so these developments could work both ways. As Keene noted and I had earlier, our futures' reaction to European weakness early in the session bears watching. A wise former writer for OIN used to caution that we should not only watch what happened in Asia and Europe but how our futures reacted. European bourses have improved since my early report.

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:29:07 AM

Pre-market most actives ... TASR $14.85 +10% (Kerchoff lawsuit against company dismissed), SIRI $6.03 +1.85%, ASTM $3.01 -2.5%, SANM $5.65 +7.6% (Upgraded at Wells Fargo), BIIB $41.25 +0.85%

Jeff Bailey : 3/3/2005 9:18:48 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.66 and set for program selling at $-0.46.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 9:16:00 AM

The OEX attempted an upside breakout above the neckline of an inverse H&S seen on its 60-minute chart, but it couldn't maintain the breakout level. It has, however, maintained an ascending trendline off the 1/22 high: Link The day ended with some indecision, however, with the OEX forming a long-legged doji right at the red resistance band that represents long-term resistance: Link One of the reasons that I like candlesticks so much is that they're a visual representation of the psychology of the markets, and a long-legged doji is the visual depiction of indecision. The fact that the OEX opened and closed within that red resistance band also depicts the indecision.

Like many others, I can tick off dozens of reasons why markets should not go higher, including but not limited to some lowering of GDP estimates across the globe, higher crude prices, recently hit multi-year lows on the VIX and the TRAN's overbought status on weekly and monthly charts. However, many of us were ticking off reasons why the indices should not go higher in the spring of 2003, too, and they did. They could now, too, whether or not those other signs worry me and others.

We can use that resistance zone as a benchmark for bullish above and bearish below. (One note: I'm not a particular fan of breakout moves on the OEX, although they tend to be good plays on other markets, such as currencies.) Both bulls and bears should remain ready to jump out again as many bullish traders probably did yesterday when bulls could not follow through on initial gains. Both should be always being willing to take quick profits. Watch the Nasdaq with relationship to its 50-dma, the SOX with relationship to its 200-week sma below and 200-week ema above, the BIX with relationship to its 200-sma and -ema's, and the TRAN's actions to help gauge market strength or weakness. Watching GE might not hurt, either, to see if it either confirms or invalidates the H&S on its daily chart. If markets are going to climb or decline, you want all cylinders firing at the same time and all vehicles pointed the same direction, or you're going to have this same recent game of bumper cars with little progress made in either direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 9:05:52 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle downphase is still in progress, but that will change is the price can hold above the 37.65 line for 10 minutes past the 9:30 open. Upper descending 30 and 60 min channel resistance currently overlap at 37.82, while channel support is at 37.52 (30 min) and 37.48 (60 min).

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 8:40:15 AM

The ECB met today, and, as expected, left rates unchanged. ECB President Trichet has begun his press conference, noting a disappointing result in flash Q4 GDP, leading to a disappointing H2 result. He believes that domestic demand may be firming, however, and that it's possible that the disappointing result was transitory.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 8:32:40 AM

TNX is now down 1.2 bps at 4.367%, not a huge move so far, and QQQQ is up .07 at 37.68. Gold is down .60 at a session low of 433.20. So far a minor reaction to the data.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 8:31:21 AM

Session low for gold, bonds and CAD futures. Looks like good numbers. Here are the headlines:





8:29am U.S. Q4 UNIT LABOR COSTS REVISED TO 1.3% VS. 2.3%

8:29am U.S. Q4 PRODUCTIVITY REVISED TO 2.1% VS. 0.8%

8:29am U.S. 4-WK AVERAGE INITIAL CLAIMS OFF 1,500 TO 307,000


Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 8:26:48 AM

Treasuries are unchanged approaching the 8:30 AM data, TNX down 0.2 bps at 4.377%. Gold has gone negative, down .20 at 433.60 and QQQQ is up 4 cents at 37.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/3/2005 7:46:19 AM

Equities are higher, with ES trading 1212, NQ 1530, YM 10834 and QQQQ +.04 at 37.65. Gold is up .5 at 454.3 and silver is up .005 at 7.35, with ten year notes +.0625 at 110 13/16. Crude oil is lower by a nickel at 53.00.

We await the 8:30 release of Initial Claims, est. 310K, Q4 Productivity, est. 1.5%, and at 10AM ISM Services, est. 60.

Linda Piazza : 3/3/2005 7:08:37 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted its sixth straight gain last night, with most other Asian markets gaining, too. The semi sector was hit by a disappointment by Korea's Hynix Semiconductor, however, and European semis were also to be impacted by an industry report projecting lower sales growth for this year. European markets are currently mixed. Despite the mixed performances in Europe, our futures began climbing as European markets opened and currently show gains. As of 6:56 EST, gold was unchanged, and crude, down $0.08. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei coiled around the flat-line level during the morning session, but broke to the upside in the afternoon, climbing sharply in the last few minutes of trading. The Nikkei closed higher by 42.75 points or 0.36%, at 11,856.46, in what has been its longest winning streak since January 2001, according to several sources. A strengthening dollar helped exporters. Oil-related companies performed well with crude closing above $53.00 a barrel. Nippon Steel was to release earnings later in the day. Merrill Lynch raised its price target for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, helping that company's stock to post a 1.5% gain. Reports showed that foreign investors turned into net sellers of Japanese bonds, with the JGB auction during the overnight session also seeing the lowest demand since May.

Most other Asian markets posted gains, but the Taiwan Weighted was an exception, closing down by 0.37%. South Korea's February business confidence index jumped to a three-year-high, to a reading above the benchmark 100. Industrial production increased by 3.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Hynix Semiconductor fell heavily, however, after the company missed estimates due to provisions set aside to deal with a U.S. probe into price fixing. A Merrill Lynch analyst lowered the company's rating to a neutral rating from its previous buy rating. The Kospi climbed 0.34%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.15%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.30%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.54%.

European markets are mixed. The eurozone's February PMI fell to 53.0 from the previous 53.4, with the prices charged level rising to 51.6, deemed its highest level since April 2002, raising some inflation concerns. The components measuring manufacturing languished, while those measuring the service sector dipped. Germany's Services PMI fell more than expected as did Italy's, but France's came in stronger than expected. The Gartner Group suggested that sales growth in the semiconductor sector will slow to 3.4% this year, sending that sector lower. Insurer Aegon fell after its earnings report. A Goldman Sachs upgrade of German banks Commerzbank and HVB helped Germany banks.

As of 6:56 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 22.70 points or 0.45%, to trade above 5,000, at 5,015.50. The CAC 40 had lost 1.16 points or 0.03%, to trade at 4,061.56. The DAX had lost 4.05 points or 0.09%, to trade at 4,389.38.

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