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OI Technical Staff : 3/7/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 5:25:20 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 4:54:05 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 4:34:23 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 4:08:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity .... Stopped out of the swing trade long for shares of Alcoa (AA) at $31.45. ($0.00, or 0.00%).

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 3:56:22 PM

The OEX may be dropping into a gravestone doji of its own to close the day. Gains were relatively limited, although the OEX did climb about $0.75 higher than I thought it would. Declines were limited, of course, too, to a decline off the day's high. The shape of the daily candle is not one that bulls want to see, of course, so bulls do not want to see a gap lower tomorrow and a move lower from there.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 3:53:35 PM

The Nasdaq drops back toward its 50-dma, with the Nasdaq at 2088.01 and the 50-dma at 2081.30.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 3:51:39 PM

The Russell 2000 may close the day negative, having produced a gravestone doji.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 3:49:19 PM

If the SOX falls too much farther, that won't look like a bull flag any longer, but the 200-week sma that Marc pointed out to us several weeks ago waits below.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 3:47:34 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has started its downphase while the 60 min is topped out and waiting for a downside break to kick off its own downphase. Both these are now opposed to the young daily cycle upturn. 38.03 is still looking like key support- and the neckline of a symmetrical intraday head and shoulders to boot: Link . A break of that level with volume implies a target at Friday's highs.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 3:44:37 PM

The SOX is pulling back, but the pullback takes the form of a possible bull flag, so there's mixed evidence.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 3:41:22 PM

Volume must be picking up. QCharts is refusing to give me all the charts I want.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 3:38:29 PM

QQQQ $38.06 +1.43% ... tests WEEKLY R1. Over 2.5 million shares changed hands on that 5-minute decline from $38.16 to WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 3:35:48 PM

eBay (EBAY) $41.81 +0.14% ... hit back lower to test previously broken downward trend.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 3:33:36 PM

Here's the test of 38.03 QQQQ on a high volume spike lower.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 3:32:22 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,225.38, DIA $109.42.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 3:29:09 PM

QQQQ's finally kicked off its new short cycle upphase off the 38.05 low, but it's as feeble as the downphase that preceded it. A break above 38.20-.22 should spook the shorts sufficiently to generate some followthrough, but in the meantime this feels like another footnote to this morning's big rise.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 3:26:09 PM

Earlier today, I showed a daily Keltner chart of the OEX, showing that the OEX was facing that resistance on a daily basis. I noted that we wouldn't know until the close whether the OEX was maintaining a breakout on a daily closing basis. We're still not at the close, but here's how it looks now: Link This is the basis upon which I noted that I expected gains to slow.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 3:18:06 PM

eBay (EBAY) $42.08 +0.79% ... edges to session high. Making a move above WEEKLY Pivot here. Breaking above short-term downward trend from March relative high.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 3:16:43 PM

The OEX is facing nearest Keltner resistance, but above that, next 15-minute Keltner resistance is from 586.15-586.68. Next support is from 584.21-584.81.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 3:09:11 PM

Now there's a potential H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, neckline at about 584.55, or perhaps slightly lower.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 3:08:58 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 3:01:51 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 3:01:29 PM

Ten year bond went out positive, TNX closing the cash session -.6 bps at 4.304%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 3:00:36 PM

Headlines:

2:59pm U.S. DEC CONSUMER CREDIT UP REV 5.0% VS RISE 1.8% PREV

2:59pm U.S. JAN.CONSUMER CREDIT UP 6.6%, OR $11.5 BLN

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:54:48 PM

ES Trade - Entry Point Alert -
Go long ES with a touch of 1226... if the play is not triggered, too bad. I'm not willing to expose us to any more whipsawing

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 2:54:22 PM

6 minutes to Consumer Credit, est. 4.8B.

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:53:26 PM

Nasdaq has made quite a turnaround today on the A/D line. It was +600 and is now printing a measly +46... fear of TXN?

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 2:52:31 PM

So far, first 15-minute Keltner resistance is holding. While I was surprised to see the OEX move as high above 586 as it did, I also wasn't sure we should expect deep declines today, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 2:52:11 PM

A big sell spike on QQQQ just now of nearly 1.5M shares within 100 ticks, just below the 7200 tick SMA at 38.15. Price dropped lest than 5 cents however- that bottomy short cycle is providing more support than bears want to see- even a bullish stochastic divergence here so long as 38.05 holds.

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:50:15 PM

I'd like to get long at 1226 but I'm not sure we will have the chance... stand by

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 2:48:08 PM

Despite the daily cycle sell signal from overbought territory and the strong response to today's 38B worth of treasury auctions, TNX is hold a measly 1 bp loss at 4.3%.

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:49:18 PM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert -
Exit short play now... 1227.25, -1.25
We are going to have to pick a direction going into the close and I'm thinking 1225 was it for the decline. Stand by for a long entry which will be the last play of the day.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 2:43:32 PM

The OEX is coming up to test first resistance on the 15-minute chart, with bears wanting to see this 585.59 resistance hold on 15-minute closes.

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:38:28 PM

I should have had a long trigger at 1225 like I originally planned this morning. We are being whipsawed around which tells me something big could be right around the corner

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:36:37 PM

ES Trade - Entry Point Alert -
Go short ES now... 1226, stop 1228
The wheels are falling off the Nasdaq

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 2:35:02 PM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows. The OEX now looks vulnerable to 584.01 and perhaps even to 581.03-581.93, but may bounce first up to test resistance at 585.49. Today has surprised me more than once, however, with the OEX climbing a little further than I had thought it would today. I had thought it would probably top out nearer 585.50-586 than it did, so that I'm not certain of the downside.

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:34:57 PM

Look at it go up now... dang!

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:34:29 PM

ES Trade - Exit Point Alert -
Stopped out of long play @ 1225.25, -2
They aren't going to make this one easy for us but I still think it's possible to make new highs, maybe not today, but tomorrow, which would fit in with Keene's EW time and price forecasts

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 2:32:29 PM

If 38.03 is a head and shoulders neckline, then the drop through it would have an implied target around 38.78. Volume is finally picking up again for QQQQ, but 38.03 has yet to be touched.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 2:30:37 PM

Impulsive drop in the TRAN over the last 15-minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 2:26:45 PM

The advdec line did confirm the H&S on its five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 2:26:03 PM

This time, the OEX broke below the 10-minute 21-ema, but it approaches potential support near 584.60. Next support below that lies near the 100/130-ema's at 582.87 and 582.04. (This is not Keltner support.)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 2:24:08 PM

Session high for crude oil here at 35.825, just ticking positive while QQQQ tests 38.10-.12 support.

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:22:01 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes... I don't want to watch this

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:20:05 PM

Oy vey! Sudden downturn happened in about 2 seconds

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 2:20:00 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,226.51, DIA $109.59.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 2:18:39 PM

Doesn't matter anyway, Mark. Smile. (In reference to my mention of a potential H&S on the advdec line's five-minute chart.) We've been seeing these kinds of signs for a week without indices moving down.

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:17:49 PM

The steep uptrend line now roughly coincides with ES HOD. It will be very difficult for ES to break out above 1230... Link

Mark Davis : 3/7/2005 2:15:55 PM

Stop that Linda!

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 2:14:58 PM

Potential H&S on the advdec line's five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 2:13:48 PM

The OEX has difficulty rising from its 10-minute 21-ema. By contract, the TRAN, an index that had also been moving in accordance with this average, bounced before touching the average and has now reached a minimal new high. There's price/CCI bearish divergence on the TRAN, but that doesn't appear to matter on the TRAN for many days now.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 2:12:05 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 2:11:30 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 2:10:12 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 2:06:01 PM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $45.70 +0.86% ... new 52-weeker here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 2:02:18 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 1:56:21 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 1:53:58 PM

This low volume bounce off the 200% fib retracement from Friday's range below the 7200 tick SMA looks quite bearish pricewise, as does the stall at Nasdaq 2100. The trouble is that a short cycle downphase has been in progress since this morning as has been extremely weak. Bears need to be attentive to a break back above 38.20, which would kick off a new short cycle upphase. Failing that, the oscillators should begin to trend in oversold territory.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 1:53:37 PM

The OEX isn't breaking as cleanly back above the 10-minute 21-ema as it did earlier. CCI is also not breaking back above the zero line.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 1:53:22 PM

Somebody on the PACX looking for stock Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.55 +2.89% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 1:46:53 PM

The CRB is lower by 11 cents at 309.05 after last week's big gains. Coffee, FCOJ and cocoa futures are leading to the upside, with coffee up 5.08% at 130.35.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 1:37:50 PM

The OEX is attempting to push up from the 10-minute 21-ema, the CCI attempting to turn up again after moving down through the zero line. Neither has yet been accomplished.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 1:35:59 PM

The 20B 3-month T-Bill auction generated a respectable 2.67 bid-to-cover ratio at a yield of 2.71%- lower yield and higher b-to-c ratio than in the past several auctions and very respectable demand. The 6 month T-Bill auction generated a bid-to-cover of 2.33 at a yield of 2.935%, with 18B worth of debt auctioned off. Currently, TNX remains lower by 1 bp at 4.3%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 1:30:04 PM

Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $66.10 -0.04% ... slips red.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 1:29:07 PM

Although both the OEX and the TRAN have been bouncing from their 10-minute 21-ema's, only the OEX has dropped down to test its 21-ema currently. The TRAN is dropping, but hasn't yet touched that average at 3861.43, with the TRAN at 3867.59.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 1:26:21 PM

Back to see QQQQ breaking below 7200 tick SMA support for the first time today but on light volume and currently finding support at 38.12. But the 30 min cycle upphase is over and the channel is downticking as I type. Below 38.12, next support is at 38.03. The TRINQ is still extremely low at .30- selling pressure is almost nonexistent.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 1:24:34 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.32 +1.55% ... slipping lower on volume.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 1:24:04 PM

The OEX now tests its 10-minute 21-ema, with bounces from this average sending the OEX higher since Thursday morning. We've been watching for a change in that trend to show even momentary weakness. The OEX has violated that average for a few minutes during these tests since Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 1:17:50 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX.X 1,227.02, DIA $109.64

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 1:16:02 PM

Steppping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 1:12:21 PM

The OEX is trading sideways down into its next test of the 10-minute 21-ema, with that average at 585.66.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 1:11:29 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 1:06:50 PM

QQQQ is challenging the 7200 tick SMA here at 38.18 after a failed bounce attempt. A move below the previous 38.12 low would confirm a break in the intraday rising trend.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 1:02:10 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 1:01:56 PM

The TRAN, too, has been bouncing off its 10-minute 21-ema, with that average at 3859.63 and the TRAN now at 3870.03.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 12:58:23 PM

This morning, when the OEX was hitting 585-586 levels, I thought the upside was limited, based on technical considerations. The OEX has since hit a high of 586.81, not so very much higher, but still a bit higher than I anticipated. I find I don't have a good feel for the market today. As I think about the comments made about Dow 11,000 and think also about the Nikkei's relentless push up toward 12,000, as if it's not going to pause for breath until it hits 12,000, I think the Dow's approach to 11,000 may have a profound impact on the markets today. I can't say that markets aren't amenable to technical analysis today because there're the OEX bounces from the 10-minute 21-ema with CCI zero line rejections as corroboration, evidence that technical analysis is working, but I just don't think it's giving the best signals at all times. I think that push may have more to do with market behavior than what technicals say. So far, the OEX remains above that 10-minute 21-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 12:49:44 PM

EBAY Weekly Pivot levels ... $39.63, $40.72, Piv= $42.01, $43.10, $44.39. (Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in EBAY)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 12:49:22 PM

Big volume for QQQQ today at 59.6M shares traded so far, compared with 86.6M shares traded during the entire session on Friday.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 12:48:05 PM

The OEX's 10-minute 21-ema is at 585.52. Since Thursday evening, the OEX has been bouncing from this average, with minor violations, with the bounce corroborated by a CCI zero line rejection. This is an attempted or minor CCI move down through the zero line and then an upturn back through it or above it again. That pattern would have to change before we could say that there was a change in trend.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 12:48:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link eBay (EBAY) $41.88 +0.31% .... looks "cheap" and should be closer to $43.00 relative to QQQQ in my opinion.

Tab Gilles : 3/7/2005 12:45:24 PM

INTC Testing Fibonacci Retracement levels. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 12:43:39 PM

Last week, I mentioned that the OEX had broken through the lip of a cup-and-handle formation. So far, it's more than maintained the breakout level, with that level being about 580.08. That would be a first place to expect strong support on a pullback. If there ever is one.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 12:30:12 PM

The TRAN still climbs. It's at 3875.73, just off the high of the day.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 12:29:05 PM

I wrongly mentioned the OEX's bounces from its two-minute 21-ema in my 12:07 post. That should have been the ten-minute 21-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 12:22:26 PM

Most Actives .... QQQQ $38.22 +1.86%, CSCO $18.42 +2.10%, INTC $25.39 +2.83%, MSFT $25.67 +2.02%, JDSU $1.96 +5.37%, ORCL $13.72 +3.31%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 12:19:50 PM

Extreme readings from the TRINQ at .3 here as QQQQ pulls back from the upper rising expanding triangle resistance line, now at 38.27. Barring a complete meltup from here, that low a TRINQ reading should make the trendline a very difficult resistance to break.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 12:18:04 PM

Alcoa (AA) $31.69 -0.34% ... comes back after we were stopped at raised bullish stop of $31.45.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 12:17:45 PM

The OEX is attempting a breakout above the daily chart's next Keltner resistance, with the ability to do so not confirmed until today's close.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 12:16:20 PM

Session high for ten year bonds, TNX -1 bp at 4.3% here. QQQQ tagged a high of 38.26.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 12:13:37 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link Friday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 12:12:14 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 12:04:38 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 12:03:00 PM

The OEX has been trending higher since Thursday afternoon. Since then, it's been bouncing off the two-minute 21-ema, currently at 585.15, with a minor violation this morning. In order for the trend to even begin to be reversed, the OEX must change that pattern.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 11:57:52 AM

QQQQ is challenging 7200 tick SMA support at 38.13. The last such test bounced from 38.07. Another bounce should target 38.25 resistance as the top of the expanding triangle and the current 60 min channel top.

Tab Gilles : 3/7/2005 11:50:12 AM

GOLD 11:47 Bid/Ask 434.40 / 434.90 +0.80 +0.18%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 11:50:00 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 11:48:07 AM

While the ECbot's feed is still down for gold and silver, I see HUI and XAU flipping positive here along with CAD futures. HUI is currently +.31% a 217.22. USD Index chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 11:41:13 AM

QQQQ $38.15 +1.67% ... sees selling at MONTHLY R1. I'm exiting a day trade long from my personal account here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 11:39:30 AM

QQQQ $38.20 +1.81% ... just traded MONTHLY R1.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 11:40:04 AM

The advdec line has been testing the day's high. Sometimes patterns and movements in the advdec line corroborate or even lead those in the equities, so this is sometimes good to watch.

I do note that while some equities were breaking to new highs, the advdec isn't.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 11:38:14 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $109.80 +0.23% ... best levels of the session here. VIX.X 12.09 +1.25% ... session lows!

Tab Gilles : 3/7/2005 11:38:04 AM

What's the best way to make money in current markets? According to one of the world's most famed investors, the strategy is simple -- bet against the dollar. Berkshire Hathaway, the investment and insurance firm run by billionaire Warren Buffet, reported that Q4 profits soared 40 percent, or $21.4 billion, on investments in a dozen currencies other than the greenback. "The evidence grows that our trade policies will put unremitting pressure on the dollar for many years to come," Buffett said in his annual letter to shareholders. The forecast seemed dead-on as a Bloomberg survey of economists showed that January's trade deficit was probably the second largest on record at $56.5 billion. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 11:33:33 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 11:29:54 AM

Nymex crude is down .70 here, -1.35%. Link Once again, QQQQ and the Nasdaq are responding the way the more "industrial" SPX and Dow normally would. We noted this divergence last week as well, when only the Nasdaq really responded to the strength in crude oil.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 11:23:30 AM

The OEX is still against daily Keltner resistance, as well as against 15-minute Keltner resistance. The 15-minute Keltner resistance turns higher, however.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 11:19:01 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert .... for Alcoa (AA) $31.45 -1.13%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 11:18:10 AM

QQQQ bulls need to at least hold that 38.03 level, but preferably break the 38.20 top to the expanding triangle. This level conveniently lines up with the 60 min cycle top. Note that a short cycle downphase has been in progress off the 10:15AM high, and so far has been corrective and weak.

Tab Gilles : 3/7/2005 11:16:54 AM

INTC OVER $25...will it hold??? Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 11:16:01 AM

This climb converts the TRAN's lower high on the five-minute chart to a potential bull flag.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 11:14:34 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 11:09:41 AM

QQQQ edges down to test the 7200 tick SMA here at 38.06. A break below 38.03 would violate the prior low and expanding triangle support, setting up a test of combined channel support at 37.93. The 30 min cycle upphase has yet to stall, but a break below that triangle support should do it. Meanwhile, the daily cycle has printed a confirming Macd bullish cross on the move above Friday's high.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 11:09:27 AM

Below the nearest Keltner support, listed in my 11:07 post, the OEX's support thins, so that it would be easier to decline once below that support. However, this configuration has existed since early Friday morning, without the OEX collapsing. The danger remains, but it has not yet been realized.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 11:07:35 AM

Nearest OEX 15-minute Keltner support is just below the current OEX position, down to 584.69, and nearest resistance is from 585.53-585.68.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 11:05:24 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 11:02:32 AM

QQQQ $38.08 +1.51% ... I'm going to snug a day trader's stop under the QQQQ at $37.90 and daily R2 after bull entry above the DAILY Pivot earlier this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 10:57:41 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:57:28 AM

The SOX currently is above the 200-week sma at 439.57, with the SOX at 441.07. Bulls absolutely need to see this hold.

Tab Gilles : 3/7/2005 10:54:52 AM

EUR/USD Link $USD 60 minute chart Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:53:50 AM

On GE's five-minute chart, there's a potential H&S to go with the big H&S on the daily chart. The five-minute version still lacks a right shoulder, however, so it's possible that GE might bounce from the current 36-ish level up toward $36.20.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:51:31 AM

A move under 3846.32 will confirm a lower high on the TRAN's five-minute chart, still only a sign of very short-term weakness.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 10:48:49 AM

Bonds continue to rise, TNX now down 1.6 bps at 4.294%, -.37% today. QQQQ is way out ahead of its peers, up 1.71% compared with gains of .16% for the SPX futures and the Dow +.1%. QQQQ is playing catchup from last week, but has a long way to go to revisit the year highs.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:39:19 AM

Looking for a lower high or any other sign of even short-term weakness on the TRAN. Earlier, there was a confirmed H&S on the five-minute chart, with the downside target just about met, but then the TRAN broke higher again. All day higher we had been seeing bearish price/MACD divergence on the TRAN, but today the MACD broke above a descending trendline of lower highs. So, although the current MACD level is below that seen early Friday and price is higher, that trendline break somewhat obviates the bearishness.

Tab Gilles : 3/7/2005 10:37:48 AM

$WTIC Oil is down today, take a look at a longterm weekly chart...interesting. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 10:40:28 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.45 +2.27% Link ... presses to highs of the session. Gapped above trending lower 50-day SMA. New Linksys Wireless router packed with features for home and mobile users. Story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 10:35:18 AM

Streicher Mobile Fueling (FUEL) $3.23 +52.35% ... percentage gainer at the NASDAQ. Announces completion of Houston-based Shank Services for $7.7 million (transaction closed Feb. 18).

Tab Gilles : 3/7/2005 10:34:53 AM

INTC Intel hitting resistance @ $25 once again.Can it cross over? Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:33:10 AM

The OEX's daily Keltner chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 10:29:12 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $109.56 +0.01% ... daily interval bar chart with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 10:28:54 AM

So far, the only cycle to register the drop off the high is the short cycle for QQQQ, just beginning to downtick now within the bullish 30 min, 60 min and daily cycles. The 7200 tick SMA is up to 37.92 and rising. The longer intraday cycles will remain bullish above that level.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:22:25 AM

I'm getting mixed evidence from various time frames on the OEX's Keltner charts, but the weight of the evidence still remains that gains should slow, as I mentioned at 9:55. Of course, the OEX has gained since that post.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 10:18:50 AM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $45.36 +0.11% Link .... challenging for new highs.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 10:16:58 AM

Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) $66.36 +0.34% ... back above their 80.9% "Nov-May" bullish retracement ($66.26).

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:16:28 AM

The Nasdaq moves up toward a challenge of 2100 and then the 2/15 high of 2103.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 10:16:11 AM

QQQQ's banging into the 200% retracement of Friday's range: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:13:55 AM

The SOX challenges Friday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 10:13:45 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/7/2005 10:12:38 AM

On a recent post (3/2/2005 3:57:40 PM) I brought up the chart of Cisco (CSCO). Here are a couple of updated charts. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:11:00 AM

The OEX's Keltner chart shows that the OEX has broken out on the 60-minute chart. If it maintains 60-minute closes above the Keltner lne currently at 583.98, it sets a potential upside target of 587.76. This goes somewhat counter to 15-minute, daily and weekly charts, however, that show that the OEX is already moving into resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 10:08:42 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:06:31 AM

The advdec line climbs.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 10:04:23 AM

Crude oil remains weak, down .55 at 53.225, a 1.02% loss this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 10:02:38 AM

QQQQ has key resistance at 38.00-38.02 on the daily chart, but if the daily cycle is indeed turning bullish (prematurely and from a higher low), then that level should break and set up a retest of 38.20 and 38.50 resistance. The pullback off the initial high bounced from 37.75, and the 30 and 60 min cycles are now in gear to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 10:02:27 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 10:01:36 AM

As Marc also noted on the Futures side, the Nasdaq is above the 50-dma.

The OEX now challenges 15-minute and daily Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 9:59:41 AM

The TRAN breaks out again.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 9:57:58 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.71 +4.03% ... edges above its 03/01/05 relative high.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 9:55:24 AM

The OEX did reach up toward next Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, and also into Keltner resistance on the daily chart. Gains might slow or the OEX could even pull back.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 9:53:02 AM

The Fed announces an 8.75B overnight repo to replace the 2.75B expiring, for a net add of 6B for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 9:48:23 AM

VIX.X 12.51 +4.77% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 11.61, 11.81, Piv= 12.15, 12.35, 12.69.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 9:47:56 AM

QQQQ has broken Friday's high and continues to drill the channel bands higher. This confirms the uptick in the daily cycle and suggests intraday cycles trending higher under its influence. QQQQ is bullish above 37.75.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 9:48:11 AM

If you're not reading both sides of the Monitor, click over and read Jane's 9:40 post, and then decide if you want to be married to either a bullish or a bearish outlook this morning. Keene's suggestion Friday evening of a possible choppy consolidation day might be on target. If not an entire day of choppy consolidation, we might get at least a few hours of that until direction is decided.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 9:45:28 AM

Still doing checks of various indicator stocks and indices, I note that GE remains above its 50-sma. It's also challenging Friday's high, but is not yet above the appropriate right-shoulder level for the H&S on its daily chart. It hasn't invalidated that formation yet, although that right shoulder extends so far in time now that the formation might soon lose importance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 9:44:27 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.37 +1.62% Link ... Breaks to upside of three-day congestion. Ssssqueeeze. Big test for strength is a break above its bearish resistance trend on PnF chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 9:42:39 AM

The BIX is above the 30-sma, still below the 50, currently challenging Friday's high. Friday's high was 367.81, with the BIX currently at 367.73.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 9:42:30 AM

Session low for ten year bonds as TNX edges fractionally positive, +.2 bps to 4.312%. April gold remains negative, down 1.10 at 434, HUI and XAU down .51% and .56% respectively, and QQQQ is stretching higher, surpassing the 30 and 60 min channel resistance lines in what looks like the start of a trending move here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 9:41:13 AM

June Palladium (pa05m) $208.00 -0.97% ... just below its 61.8% retracement ($209.14).

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 9:39:49 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $12.30 +2.58% Link ... early morning high has been $12.50. That would be enough to get stock back on a PnF "buy signal" with initial bullish vertical count hinting at $16.50.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 9:38:58 AM

SOX charges higher, sentiment apparently not yet affected by European Infineon's downgrade by two firms this morning, based on an expectation for lower DRAM prices. It hasn't breached the last 15-minute high at 439.87, however, so hasn't confirmed this move higher. It's at 438.12 as I type, still charging higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 9:38:24 AM

Barely a pause at the 30 min channel resistance, with the 60 min channel top now being hit at 37.74. If this doesn't reverse immediately (within the next 2 minutes), we will see the 30 min cycle whip to the upside in a trending move that should persist above 37.65.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 9:35:33 AM

Friday, the TRAN broke out above 15-minute Keltner channels, creating a breakout signal, and stayed there most of the day. From 3824.39-3828.55, the TRAN will test the breakout level. Currently, the TRAN appears to be bouncing from that breakout level, but it hasn't confirmed by reaching a new high. The TRAN is particularly important to watch today, having reached a new high Friday. Bulls don't want to see it collapse today, because that new high was only a minimal new one, and sets up a potential double-top formation on the daily chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 9:35:09 AM

Bonds continue to hold fractional gains in positive territory, TNX -.2 bps at 4.308%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 9:34:34 AM

QQQQ is breaking to a new high here on a burst of volume, targeting 30 min channel resistance at 37.69.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 9:32:26 AM

The OEX opens and immediately challenges next 15-minute Keltner resistance, turning down from it on the first test. The OEX needs to produce 15-minute closes above that resistance, up to 583.74, to look as if it might be able to climb toward next Keltner resistance from 584.40-584.90.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 9:31:09 AM

Celgene Corp. (CELG) $28.68 Link ... second-most active and jumping to $33.67. Company announced REVLIMID Pivotal Phase III Multiple Myeloma Trials both exceeded pre-specified interim efficacy endpoints. Celgene has now initiated discussions with the FDA and international regulatory authorities regarding the submission of this data for potential approval.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 9:24:32 AM

Cell Therapeutics (CTIC) $10.00 Link ... stock hit lower to $4.70 and most active in this morning's pre-market trade. Company said a late-stage trial of its experimental lung cancer drug did not meet its main goal of showing it worked better than standard chemotherapy.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2005 9:19:56 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.46 and set for program selling at $-0.48.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 9:03:18 AM

The choppy cycle picture from Friday's close has only become moreso in the overnight gyrations in the NQ futures. The daily cycle has given a preliminary buy signal, the first bullish stochastic cross since the last upphase at the end of January. The 30 min cycle continues to point south, while the upphase in the 60 min cycle has pulled down to a bearish kiss.

When cycles in different timeframes oppose each other, the result is rangebound chop. On the daily chart, that range is wide, from 37-38 QQQQ. Dialing down to the shorter timeframes, QQQQ needs to break 37.40 or 37.75 to generate an intraday directional move. As we saw on Friday, there's a small rising trendline with preliminary support at 37.50, a break below which would be the first sign of trouble for bulls.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 8:36:30 AM

Friday, the OEX broke out above long-term resistance near 580 and headed higher. It headed into Keltner resistance on the daily chart, with that resistance at 584.65-585.59, so that it's possible that gains might slow. The fifteen-minute upside Keltner target had been met, and had held as resistance. At Friday's close, the OEX appeared vulnerable to a pullback to 581.48 and perhaps 579.29 unless it could achieve and maintain 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 583.64. The 30-minute chart gave somewhat contradictory evidence, showing that if the OEX maintained 30-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 583.20, it had the chance if not yet the probability of reaching toward 586.00. Either way, the picture is one of possible limited gains and possible limited declines unless early morning developments begin showing a differing picture.

If the OEX should decline, bears should watch as the SOX heads down into an area where moving-average support merges with historical support from 418-423. A SOX bounce might prompt a market bounce. If markets gain, traders should watch as the Nasdaq tests the 50-sma. It's difficult to believe in the sustainability of general market climbs with the Nasdaq not able to break out, too.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 8:29:18 AM

ECB Trichet President speaks after a G-10 central bank meeting. He believes that global growth rates may not reflect all risks, but notes that global economies have absorbed higher crude prices more easily than they did in the past and that inflationary expectations are well managed. He does term global fiscal positions as "deteriorating," but the overall tenor was cautiously optimistic.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/7/2005 7:57:27 AM

Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1224.25, NQ 1526, YM 10950, ER 645 and QQQQ up .06 at 37.58. Gold is down 30 cents at 434.80, silver -.013 at 7.375, ten year notes are up .0781 at 111 11/64 and crude oil is down 45 cents at 53.325.

The lone economic report scheduled for today is consumer credit at 3PM, est. 4.8B, prior 3.1B.

Linda Piazza : 3/7/2005 7:17:23 AM

Good morning. Today, the IMF cautioned that global economic health is too dependent on the U.S. and Chinese economies, adding that further dollar weakness or higher interest rates in the U.S. could hinder global economic growth. Despite a much-lower-than-expected capital spending number, the Nikkei extended its gains another day. Most other Asian markets gained, with South Korea's an exception amid a brewing scandal possibly involving the finance minister. Despite disappointing retails sales figures, many European markets post gains with the U.K.'s an exception. Our futures trade near the flat-line, not having reacted much to the European open for once, and having drifted slowly down from the overnight highs reached Sunday evening. As of 6:34 EST, gold was $435.00, and crude was $53.40. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

With 12,000 in sight, the Nikkei gapped higher by more than 60 points Monday morning and soon climbed to a high of 11,975.45. The Nikkei could not hold onto all those gains, however, and slipped lower all afternoon, still closing higher by 52.31 points or 0.44%, at 11,925.36. It extended by another day its winning streak. Gains were led by exporters after Friday's gains in U.S. bourses, prompted by a favorable U.S. jobs report. Sony was helped by speculation that it would name replacements for its two top executives Monday. As was widely rumored would happen, Howard Stringer, head of Sony's American unit, was named as replacement for the chairman and chief executive. Banks gained as did many stocks related to domestic demand. One of the top four banks, Sumitomo Trust & Banking, will seek compensation from UFJ over their proposed merger, a merger that UFJ backed away from in favor of one with Mitsubishi Tokyo.

Before the market had opened, the Ministry of Finance survey revealed that in the October-December quarter, capital spending rose 3.5% from the year-ago level, far below the 10.8% expected, making the Nikkei gains somewhat surprising. The Bank of Japan's Governor Fukui announced that he did not intend to initiate changes to his current monetary plan. He also does not plan to change the current cash to assets balance.

Most other Asian markets closed higher, too, with South Korea's the exception. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.43%, but South Korea's Kospi dipped 0.54% as it was reported that the country's finance minister will resign after alleged involvement in real-estate speculation was discovered. Semi-related stocks were somewhat weak in South Korea, too, although Hynix Semiconductor closed flat. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.54%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.30%. China's Central Bank affirmed an intention to keep monetary policy stable while moving forward with reforms of banks and financial institutions. Other plans include encouraging banks to make loans to smaller companies. China's forex chief expressed his belief that an appreciation in the yuan would not benefit either China or the global economy, but that as soon as conditions would allow, the yuan would be untethered from the dollar and allowed to be free floating. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.47%.

Most European markets gain, too, but the FTSE 100 is one of two exceptions to that trend. The European gains occur despite a report that February's eurozone retail sales fell to a seasonally adjusted 47.3, to the lowest figure in nine months. January's number had been 49.9, with both below the benchmark contraction-or-expansion 50 number. Germany's number fell to 48.4; Italy's, to 44.4; and France's, to 48.3. Worries about higher crude prices and increasing unemployment were tagged as the reasons behind the drops.

Reportedly, the Deutsche Boerse has withdrawn its takeover bid for the London Stock Exchange, and a drop in LSE helps lead U.K. bourses lower. Miners and insurers had posted gains in early trading. On continental Europe, BMW's CEO said that he expected strong growth in Asia and the U.S. to help the company produce 6-9% higher sales in 2005. His statement resonates eerily with the IMF's warning of the too-strong-dependence on U.S. and Chinese growth, but BMW was seeing slight gains in early trading. Upgrades by J.P. Morgan of Alcatel and Morgan Stanley of the luxury sector helped selected stocks post gains. J.P. Morgan and CSFB both downgraded chip manufacturer Infineon, both basing the downgrade on an expectation for lower DRAM prices.

As of 7:07 EST, the FTSE 100 was down 9.70 points or 0.19%, to 5,026.60. The CAC 40 was higher by 12.12 points or 0.30%, to 4,103.70. The DAX was higher by 4.98 points or 0.11%, to 4,428.50.

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