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Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 10:44:22 PM

Crude oil prices are likely to remain in the high to mid-$40s through 2005 and 2006, the U.S. Energy Department said Tuesday. A month ago, the department estimated that crude oil prices would be in the low to mid-$40s through 2006. In its monthly short-term energy outlook released Tuesday, the government agency said crude oil prices would likely average $48.70 per barrel in the first quarter, up $13 from a year ago and $2 more than estimated a month ago. Global oil demand is expected to rise 2.5 percent annually this year and next, up from a 2.4 percent growth estimate a month ago. Link Link

Investors are now awaiting the latest weekly industry supply level data from the U.S. Energy Department and the American Petroleum, due for release tomorrow. If we get another set of bullish numbers this could be the fuel to drive crude to a new all time high setting up for a test of $60 bbl. Economists anticipate a decline of 1.5 million barrels for distillate. News reports have acting OPEC Secretary-General Adnan Shihab-Eldin calling for the possibility of oil prices rising to $80 a barrel over the next two years as highly unlikely, but he couldn't rule out the chances of such a steep spike. Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/8/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 8:06:54 PM

June Palladium futures (pa05m) $211.00 gaining $1.30 and edging above that fitted 38.2% retracement.

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 5:39:47 PM

$USD Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 5:03:09 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jim Brown : 3/8/2005 4:42:45 PM

There have not been any major oil discoveries since the 1970s. The volume of discoveries has been trending steadily down since 1980 despite increased exploration activity. There are over 40,000 oil deposits globally but nearly 50% of our oil comes from just 40 of them. All the big fields have already been found and are approaching depletion levels. Oil ONLY occurs in certain geologic formations and once this was known it took very little time to locate ALL of them in the 50s and 60s. The facts are in plain view for anybody that cares to research it. The reason you are not hearing this from the mainstream media is that there is no future in painting a bleak future when so called experts pop up almost daily saying "no problem". The media would rather worry about Intel's update this week than $100 oil in 2008 (or sooner).

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 4:38:24 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 4:32:06 PM

Listen to Jim Rodgers...he'll tell you the facts on oil and commodities. Keeps it simple, demand is rising and there hasn't been any significant oil field discovery.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 4:31:26 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jim Brown : 3/8/2005 4:29:10 PM

XOM said last month that they finished 2004 with fewer reserves than 2003 and new discoveries were slowing. Considering they are the largest company this is confirmation that tough times are ahead.

Jim Brown : 3/8/2005 4:27:25 PM

Tab, I can't wait to see how they spin it. The answer is YES but I guarantee that is not what they will say.

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 4:21:39 PM

Jim...not sure if your watching CNBC. Those interested might want to check on a report w/i next half hour. Is Saudi Arabia running out of oil?... will be the topic.

Jim Brown : 3/8/2005 4:44:13 PM

Alert - XLNX mid quarter update - raising guidance to +5% to +8% revenue growth, up from +1% to +5%.

Reminder, ALTR update on Wed, INTC update is Thursday

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 4:20:11 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... Bearish swing trade short the underlying shares of the QQQQ at $37.92. Post-close adjustments have stop at $38.10 and targeting $37.51.

Jim Brown : 3/8/2005 4:15:54 PM

Alert - ORCL making a $9 offer for RETK

Jim Brown : 3/8/2005 4:13:28 PM

EBAY saying they have launched online classified ads for select U.S. markets to capture business on articles too bulky to ship. This is expected to catch fire quickly and increase Ebay profits. This is an area not previously tapped by Ebay or anybody else.

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 4:08:08 PM

Don't forget EIA report tomorrow. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 4:08:04 PM

Bearish swing trade adjustment alert for the QQQQ. Lower downside target to $37.51, adjust stop higher from $38.05 to $38.10.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 4:08:37 PM

QQQQ goes out at $37.68 -0.99% ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow are... $37.29, $37.48, Piv = $37.85, $38.04, $38.41. Note correlative DAILY S1/WEEKLY Pivot support and DAILY R1/WEEKLY R1 Pivot resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 4:03:32 PM

QQQQ's sideways-downphase continues Link with the 30 min cycle now trending in oversold as the 60 min cycle downphase continues. Yesterday's low was never tested, with today's low print reaching within a dime of it. The daily cycle remains in an early upphase, with today's session technically an inside day within yesterday's range. That should prove bullish, but a break below the 37.55 level from here would change that. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 4:00:34 PM

April Crude Oil Futures (cl05j) ... didn't get above Thursday's highs today. RISK averse BEARS in the QQQQ may want to close out, or cut back if OVERLY SHORT.

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 4:00:15 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 3:50:32 PM

QQQQ $37.74 -0.81% ... session low so far has been DAILY S1 of $37.65. (close but no cigar at this point for swing trade bear).

Jim Brown : 3/8/2005 3:49:26 PM

The big drop 10 min ago was on a trading floor rumor of a large explosion in New York City. There has been no confirmation and it is now being called a hoax.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 3:42:01 PM

Big volume sell spike with over 1.2M QQQQ shares within a 100 tick bar: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 3:39:57 PM

QQQQ $37.65 -1.07% ... testing DAILY S1 here. Session low!

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 3:36:01 PM

Crude oil reopens lower, down .05 at 54.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 3:34:46 PM

Nominal new low from QQQQ at 37.73, with NQ printing a new low. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 3:33:22 PM

Heating oil, cotton, sugar and coffee led the CRB higher a new 25+ year high, +3.32 to 312.69. USD Index chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 3:33:43 PM

GOLDThe World Spot Price - Asia/Europe/NY markets 3:22PM Bid 440.50 /Ask 441.20 Change from NY Close +0.50 +0.11% Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 3:20:24 PM

The tick chart's moving very slowly on the light volume, but trend continues sideways-down for QQQQ. Link Despite the 5 cent drop in the past 20 minutes, the 30 and 60 min channel bottoms continue to hold at 37.70. The current low is 37.74. A failure to tag it on this decline should see an uptick in the short cycle oscillators, but as far the bulls are concerned, it will be noise below the 37.95 level. A move above that will turn the 30 min cycle decisively up, and would likely challenge the 60 min downphase as well.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 3:20:28 PM

I've returned for a few minutes before taking off for the day, to find that the OEX is just about where it was when I left, with Keltner charts in just about the same configuration. The potential for a H&S on that 15-minute chart still exists, with the right shoulder now forming a H&S of its own. As I type, the OEX remains vulnerable to Keltner support near 581.75-582.05, but it's been vulnerable to that mid-channel level most of the day without falling to it yet. Bears hope that it will, breaking below that mid-channel level and setting it up as potential support.

Bears should have profit-protecting plans if the OEX should fall to 582, with bears prefering to see a quick plunge through that level.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 3:12:46 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 3:06:31 PM

Ten year treasuries are closed for the cash session, TNX +7.1 bps at 4.375%. The daily cycle has ticked up within its downphase, but has yet to print a bullish kiss. Yield bulls need to see TNX break 4.4% tomorrow to reverse the downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 3:04:02 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 2:51:49 PM

June Palladium (pa05m) $209.70 (unch) .... Stillwater Mining (SWC) $12.25 +2.25% ... North American Palladium (PAL) $8.72 +3.07% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 2:49:20 PM

QQQQ is backing off after lower high within the short cycle upphase. The 30 min cycle has turned up from oversold while the 60 min cycle continues to point south, with QQQQ back to the 11AM lows. Volume is still light, now at 64.7M with an hour and a half to go. Channel support lines up at 37.70 if 37.80 breaks, resistance 37.95. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 2:36:17 PM

SOX.X 437.39 -0.93% ... juuuuust under its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 2:28:59 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) 109.38 +0.04% ... this is gonn'a keep psychology rather positive.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 2:27:20 PM

TRIN 1.37 +75.64% .... QQQQ $37.88 -0.47%

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 2:26:30 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 2:21:10 PM

Crude oil's dropped back to 54.80 after tagging a high at 53.30. Bonds have firmed off their lows, with TNX up 7.1 bps at 4.375% here. Gold remains at the high of the day at 441.60 on high volume of 1240 contracts.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 2:09:15 PM

Cendant (CD) $22.26 -0.17% ... company said its board approved the raising of its quarterly cash dividend by 22% to $0.11 per share from $0.09 per share.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 2:09:07 PM


1:59 Bernanke: rate hike pace sensitive to unexpected events

1:59 Bernanke: measured pace is forecast, not commitment

1:59 Bernanke: core inflation will remain in comfort zone

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 2:07:32 PM

QQQQ breaks want to see the pennant apex hold. Because the 30 min cycle is so bottomy, a new upphase from here within the upturned daily cycle will have the potential to meet or exceed yesterday's high- particularly if we put in a higher low today. Link The 30 min cycle will turn up on a 5 min break above the 7200 tick SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 2:07:22 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $109.33 (unch) ... AIG $66.87 +1.59% and UTX $102.84 +1.49% percentage winners and offset losses in MCD $33.18 -3.01%, DIS $28.57 -1.34% and SBC $24.17 -1.06%. VIX.X 12.34 +0.65%

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 1:58:00 PM

QQQQ $37.78 -0.73% ... seller were waiting on the re-test of the DAILY Pivot weren't they? We'll see what happens if/when the QQQQ slips back to $37.57. Yesterday morning's action sure looked like somebody (large block?) turned to a buyer at that level with some ferocity.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 1:53:28 PM

Previous low breaking on a surge in volume for QQQQ, 37.75 support being tested now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 1:53:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 1:51:44 PM

Crude oil breaks the high here, up to 55.125.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 1:50:20 PM

One last post: The OEX is now below the 15-minute Keltner S/R levels we've watched all day. Bears want to see it maintain 15-minute closes below 583.62-583.88. Watch for potential support near the day's low and then again near 581.85-582. Bears should have profit-protecting plans in place for 582, in case of a strong bounce from that area, back across a H&S neckline that would have been violated just above that. A 15-minute close and strong punch through 581.85 sets up a potential downside target of 576.61, but I'd certainly be cautious about bearish positions, being willing to take profits and get out if dip-buyers step in too strongly.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 1:47:57 PM

QQQQ has dropped back to the pennant apex after breaking north. The short cycle upphase has stalled on the break back below 7200 tick SMA support. Key support for the 30 and 60 min cycles is at 37.75-.80, which has so far supported the day lows. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 1:47:33 PM

I'm leaving now and will try to check back in, in about an hour or a little longer.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 1:46:33 PM

The BIX bounces without yet having touched its 200-sma and -ema, both converging just above 361. It's spring up into a test of its 30-sma at 367.31, with the 50-sma above that, at 369.50. The BIX, unlike some other indices, has not been able to push above its 50-sma.

The RLX tests its 50-dma with the 100-sma at 443.38 having provided resistance on daily closes since 2/18. Yesterday and several days last week, the RLX pushed above this average on intraday pushes but couldn't maintain it.

These two indices are important to the OEX, too, and might be watched for clues. Bullish or bearish, OEX traders want corroboration from these indices, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 1:46:23 PM

Crude oil is back to the highs, +1.9% at 54.925. Session high remains 55.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 1:40:11 PM

Session high for April gold here at 441.40, bring gold back to levels not seen since December. HUI is up 3.42% at 223.03, XAU +3.29 at 102.22. Gold bulls want to see the April contract hold north of 440 to abort the so-far corrective daily cycle downphase that kicked off at the end of last month.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 1:31:47 PM

The OEX tests former Keltner resistance from 583.70-583.88 on the 15-minute chart, to see if it now holds as support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 1:25:04 PM

Swing trade short alert ... for the QQQQ $37.92 here, stop $38.05, target $37.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 1:18:47 PM

The 24B 4-week t-bill auction generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.23 at a rate of 2.56%, with indirect bidders taking 4.8B of the total. Ten year bonds remain weak, with TNX holding a 7.7 bp gain at 4.381%.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 1:18:33 PM

The OEX had bounced up from the potential neckline area of a H&S, and now it's testing the right-shoulder level again, perhaps just a little above it. The 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that the OEX needs to maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner lines currently from 583.71-583.90 to preserve the possibility of climbing higher today.

Keep in mind that this zoom higher occurs just a little ahead of a typical stop-running time of day. Bulls do not want to see 15-minute closes below those 15-minute lines mentioned above, or the possibility of a drop toward 582 is renewed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 1:16:58 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 1:14:51 PM

The TRAN has not moved to a new high, but it has moved high enough to invalidate the H&S on its 15-minute chart. If the TRAN should zoom right down, it might leave only a shadow above the appropriate right shoulder level, but that's stretching it a bit to keep watching the H&S under that bearish hope.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 1:10:35 PM

For the first time today, the OEX is breaking momentarily . . . well, I was going to type that it was breaking momentarily above the ten-minute 21-ema, but it pushed far above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 1:10:33 PM

Nymex crude is up 1.39% here at 54.65. The session high is 55.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 1:04:43 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 1:04:38 PM

The SOX remains below the 200-week sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 1:04:27 PM

Volume has shrunk in the past hour and is running very low for QQQQ, which appears to be coiling into a pennant. The short cycle upphase has been very weak, complicating the choppy picture even further- a corrective short cycle upphase within a corrective 30 and 60 min downphase? The pennant is usually a continuation pattern, and in this case the lower support is 4 cents off the session low. A break above 3788 targets 37.92 resistance, below 37.83 targets 37.80 support. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 1:03:37 PM

I'm going to have to leave in 20-30 minutes, and will be gone most of the afternoon. I hope to check in again before I leave for good, however.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 1:02:00 PM

China Nat. Resources (CHNR) $5.55 +41.22% ... surging higher in last hour. Looks like a holding company of various natural resource businesses. Company profile at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 12:50:23 PM

The TRAN is heading up again, but has a potential H&S on the 15-minute chart, and heads into the right-shoulder level.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 12:43:02 PM

The OEX is still caught between that resistance and support noted in my 12:30 post.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 12:38:22 PM

Forest Labs (FRX) $42.57 -2.45% ... stock defensive from the opening tick. I've been unable to uncover any news to explain today's action.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 12:34:38 PM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.72 +0.61% ... "soft-shoes" higher on very light volume.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 12:30:32 PM

The OEX is caught between this support and resistance: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 12:27:10 PM

There's now potential for an intraday double-bottom formation on the OEX, to be confirmed by a move above 583.99, the peak between the two troughs. The OEX appears to be having some trouble with the ten-minute 21-ema, however, with that average at 583.71.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 12:23:03 PM

Today, GE remains above its converging 30- and 50-sma, but has not moved above its right-shoulder area near 36.60. Like many other stocks and indices, GE produced a doji yesterday and then opened lowered today, presenting the possibility of an evening-star formation being produced today, but GE climbed off that opening low rather than fell from it.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 12:19:57 PM

The 30 min cycle oscillators for QQQQ are oversold and trying to tick up, while the 60 min cycle is in a downphase just approaching the midpoint of its range. In light of the daily cycle upphase that kicked off recently, this corrective 30 min cycle downphase will be bullish so long as Friday's high holds- in the 37.75-.80 zone. My guess is that more sideways drift will see the 30 min cycle turn up to oppose the 60 min cycle downphase. Volume remains light at 43.7M shares now, and unless the bears drill the price lower quickly from here, the session should remain quiet as the intraday correction runs its course.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 12:13:10 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 12:10:48 PM

There has been neither a plummet nor a pop above the Keltner line that has been stopping the OEX on the 15-minute chart, but that resistance line at 583.59 continues to hold on 15-minute closes. This keeps alive the possibility of a downturn toward 582, but first bears need to drive the OEX to a new LOD. All who have traded a while can remember days when perfect bearish setups worked perfectly and others when they just preceded another trip higher.

As others have noted with respect to other indices, there's a potential H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart. Although the neckline is probably at about 582.50, I wouldn't consider it confirmed until the OEX is below the 15-minute mid-channel level at 581.72, since that's a strong potential bounce point.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 12:10:28 PM

More weakness for ten year bonds despite the dollar trying to firm, with TNX up to an 8.3 bp gain now at 4.387% (+1.93% today). I suspect that the huge 24B 4-week t-bill auction starting soon is a contributing factor. We'll know the results of that auction just after 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 12:05:44 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 12:01:22 PM

QQQQ update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 11:55:32 AM

United Tech (UTX) $102.83 +1.51% ... session high from a DIA price heavyweight.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 11:54:47 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $109.34 +0.01% ... inching green. VIX.X 12.04 -1.79% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 11:52:41 AM

The OEX is still being pressured lower by a 15-minute Keltner line currently at 583.67, but it's not dropping away from that line. Under these conditions, the OEX is primed for either a pop up through that seeming resistance or for a plummet, depending on who capitulates first.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 11:48:47 AM

The US Dollar Index broke 82 and printed a doji low to 81.95, bouncing now to test 82 from below. Gold has pulled back to 439.80, but bond yields are barely moving, TNX still up 7 bps at 4.374% here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 11:47:08 AM

Elan (ELN) $7.16 +11.18% ... tried a day trade short in my own account, but no stock for loan from Ameritrade. Was going to short $7.25, stop above $7.31 and target back toward $7.07. I would NOT hold a short overnight here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 11:45:21 AM

Gurunet (AMEX:GRU) $23.50 +30.48% ... moves atop percentage gainers.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 11:37:22 AM

The CRB continues to run higher, now up 3.21 at 312.58, with coffee taking the lead for a second day in a row, up 3.69%, followed by natgas and heating oil futures. Crude is now up 1.21% at 54.55.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 11:30:59 AM

The OEX is turning down from the 15-minute Keltner resistance I've been mentioning, but it's turning down within a potential bear flag. The testing of that Keltner resistance, being done form within a bear-flag rise, may not yet be concluded, although the OEX tests the bear flag support as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 11:28:20 AM

Ten year notes have stabilized near the lows, with TNX up 7.1 bps here at 4.375%. This is within Friday's wide range but above today's opening gap. The daily cycle sell signal that printed Friday has yet to undraw itself, but a close above 4.4%, 2.5 bps north of current levels, would likely change that. Note the similarities with April gold, which is breaking 440 resistance here- there are potential bear traps set up for both the ten year yield and April gold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 11:21:02 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 82.03 -0.83% ... slips below its WEEKLY S1. AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 222.91 +3.36% ... strong move today and trades just above its WEEKLY R2 (222.34)

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 11:14:26 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 11:13:55 AM

So far, the OEX's potential downside target (Keltner-based) of 581.60-581.91 remains a possibility based on resistance at 583.85-584.05 holding on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 11:06:04 AM

QQQQ failed at 37.95 resistance is back to the low, breaking below 37.86 as I type. A break below 37.80 would give the 60 min cycle bears a chance to get something going, but the decline continues to appear corrective within the new daily cycle upphase. Yesterday morning's upside move was a lot more persuasive than the decline from yesterday afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 11:05:48 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 11:03:21 AM

News from the forex markets: T. Italia has issued corporate 50-year bonds, with those bonds seeing strong demand from pension funds based in the U.K. and Switzerland. This makes T. Italia the first corporation in the eurozone to issue 50-year bonds.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 10:57:24 AM

So far, 15-minute Keltner resistance holds.

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 10:57:11 AM

INTC Watch $25.45 level. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 10:51:00 AM

Keltner resistance on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart has lowered to 583.94-584.08. Bears want to see this hold on 15-minute closes. It's being tested now.

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 10:49:46 AM

SMH Semi Holders Link Link

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 10:43:42 AM

$USD down ECB may raise rates. Gold 10:40 AM Bid 438.00/Ask 438.50 +3.60 +0.83% Low 435.30/ High 439.40

Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 10:42:09 AM

QQQQ is below yesterday's afternoon and afterhours support with the short cycle downphase speeding lower. Yesterday's morning rise paused at 37.78, which now lines up with descending 30 and 60 min channel support. QQQQ needs to hold below 37.90 to give bears a chance at synchronized 30/60 min cycle downphases to challenge yesterday's opening lows. If not, the daily cycle upphase will remain in place, and this decline will remain merely corrective.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 10:41:52 AM

The BIX is dropping heavily, back toward its linked 200-ema and -sma's, at 360.99 and 361.38, respectively. Bears should watch this test, to see if there's a bounce from these averages or a plummet through them.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 10:40:10 AM

McDonalds (MCD) $33.31 -2.63% Link ... session low and morning drag on the Dow Diamonds (DIA) $109.16 -0.16% Link McDonalds (MCD) saying same store sales rose 1.6% in February as increase in US (+4.6%) helped offset weakness in Europe (-3.4%). In February of last year, same store sales surged 13.9%

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 10:35:41 AM

SOX dropping below the 10-minute 100/130-ema's, and is also obviously back below the 200-week sma. Now bears just have to do something about the TRAN. Honestly, it's seemed to me for a time that there's nothing but air below the TRAN for a distance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 10:33:57 AM

Excel Maritime (AMEX:EXM) $23.99 -15.73% ... plunging after issuing prospectus supplement covering the proposed sale of up to 5,899,000 shares.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 10:33:39 AM

April gold is up 4.10 at 439.90 here, challenging 440 resistance now. If the contract closes at this level, the daily cycle downphase should at least stall.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 10:31:48 AM

Volume is lighter than yesterday, with 25.7M QQQQ shares traded so far. Yesterday's total volume was 94.9M, below the average of 101.3M.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 10:26:26 AM

Session low for QQQQ below 37.95 and now testing the 37.90 level, which acted as support following the afterhours TXN spike yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 10:31:57 AM

Elan (ELN) $7.13 +10.71% ... stock moves atop percentage gainers list. Positive mention in Forbes that Tysabri taken by itself was not responsible for patient death.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 10:23:04 AM

The TRAN did tumble off its high of the day, but it's still maintain support at its 10-minute 21-ema, as it has been since Friday. That MA is beginning to slowly flatten, however. It's not much flattening yet, but something to watch. So far, no weakness in the TRAN, but these are some signs to watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 10:22:43 AM

The CRB has broken last week's high and is now up 1.26 at 310.63, led by silver, sugar, copper and coffee futures. Crude oil is currently down a nickel at 53.85, while gold is at a session high of 438.80.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 10:18:25 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 10:16:21 AM

In addition to 15-minute Keltner resistance from the 584.20-584.50-ish region, the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's are also ranged from 584.18-584.56. Bears want this to hold if the OEX reaches that high.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 10:13:28 AM

The OEX's three-minute Keltner chart suggests it might now be time for a bounce. If so, bears want 15-minute Keltner resistance converging near 584.18-584.47 to hold on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 10:12:37 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 10:08:14 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows: The OEX continues to show 15-minute closes beneath Keltner lines currently at 584.19 and 584.51, preserving the possibility of dropping toward 581.49-582.10. Bears should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of that level, in case bulls should step in to buy the dips. Keep a watch on the TRAN, too, as well as the SOX. Steep drops in those indices would help the bearish sentiment in the markets while continued gains should make bears wary.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 10:08:12 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 10:04:29 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 10:02:35 AM

The Fed has announced an 8B overnight to replace the 8.75B expiring, for a minor net drain of 750M. Bonds made new lows on the announcement however, with TNX now up 6.8 bps at 4.372% for a 1.58% decline today.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 9:55:55 AM

QQQQ tests the broken descending trendline from above here, which now coincides with the 7200 tick SMA as well. A break below 37.07 should kick off a new short cycle upphase and stall the 30 min cycle uptick before it it blooms into a full upphase. The downphase that preceded it lasted for all of yesterday afternoon with minimum price losses.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:55:51 AM

The SOX is now off its high of the day, but not sinking too far yet. The TRAN isn't much off its high of the day at all. Bears are going to have hard going until these indices give up along with others.

The TRAN amazes me. Both crude sensitive and economy sensitive, the TRAN continues higher into very overbought territory on both weekly and daily charts with crude on an upward track lately and with some signs of a global . . . let's see if I can use Fedspeak here . . . de-acceleration of growth acceleration.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 9:51:50 AM

VIX.X 12.00 -1.95% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.80, 12.06, Piv= 12.30, 12.57, 12.82

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:50:55 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows: The OEX currently does battle with Keltner support, slightly below that support at 584.23, but perhaps still challenging that support, with bears not completely in the clear. Bears want to see a 15-minute close beneath that level. However, as long as the OEX does not produce 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 584.78, the OEX continues the possibility of moving down toward 581.45-582.15. The possibility will look stronger if the OEX continues those 15-minute closes beneath that Keltner line currently at 584.78. Although yesterday's confirmed H&S has a lower downside target, if in bearish positions, I'd certainly have profit-protecting plans in mind for that 582-ish area.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 9:48:32 AM

April gold futures are down 1.1 off the high at 437.50, with HUI up 2.07% and XAU up 1.7%. The 439-440 level continues to hold, but the daily cycle has been in a downphase for a week now with no net decline in price. If that downphase is as corrective as it appears, then a close above 440 could set up the test of 430 support as a bear trap and kick off a premature upphase from here. In either case, a break of 440 or 430 on a closing basis should be directional.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 9:46:09 AM

Percentage Gainers ... ADLR $10.52 +19%, FUEL $3.55 +14.51%, IIG $10.65 +9.6%, IDOC $5.44 +7.5%, ABRX $22.64 +7.6%, DOC $5.40 +6.71%. Percentage Losers ... PRFT $8.31 -11.97%, WRES $11.55 -8.7%, MUSA $23.25 -6.31%, PWER $5.45 -5.55%, OMNI $2.27 -6.19%

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:45:28 AM

So far, the OEX's five-minute 21/100/130-ema's still hold as resistance, but they're still being tested.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:44:15 AM

The SOX is climbing, which must encourage some to believe that all the bad news is priced in, with that news including the downgrading of a couple of European semi stocks yesterday due to likely decreased prices on DRAM.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:42:46 AM

The OEX still tests the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's, but has now risen within the converging averages.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:41:19 AM

The TRAN still climbs.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 9:40:41 AM

QQQQ update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:40:09 AM

The OEX has been engaged in a test of the five-minute 100/130-ema's, so far remaining below them on five-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:37:47 AM

The OEX, RLX, and BIX all open and trade in accordance with the possibility of creating evening-star patterns on their daily charts. We've seen this happen before, so early trading does not guarantee that the evening-star formation will be confirmed today. Don't get married to a bearish position with bullish fervor still not dampened. I'm not in a buy-the-dip mood myself, but some might be.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:34:20 AM

The OEX did open below the five-minute 100/130-ema's. It bounces back, but bears want to see those averages hold as resistance now, with those averages currently at 584.74 and 584.30, respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 9:33:16 AM

The cycle picture has advanced from yesterday's close, with the 30 min cycle downphase passing the midpoint of its range as the 60 min cycle continues to hold on a bearish kiss- still no confirming cross there. So far, this downphase is generating poor traction price-wise, and suggests that the pullback yesterday afternoon is not a rounded top but actually a bull flag. Even a break below 37.88 could invalidate that if the 60 min cycle gets into gear. But for now, it looks like the bears are running out of time on this 30 min downphase.

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2005 9:33:49 AM

GOLD 09:31AM Bid/Ask 437.00/ 437.50 +2.60 +0.60% Low/435.30, High/437.90

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 9:30:24 AM

Adolor (ADLR) $10.56 +19.72% ... higher after company said its experimental treatment Entereg, which it is developing with GlaxoSmithKline, helped reduce opioid-induced bowel dysfunction in Phase II tests.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 9:25:59 AM

Pre-Market Most Actives ... MSFT $25.42 -0.19%, ADLR $10.40 +17.9%, AAPL $41.77 -2.29%, CTIC $5.61 +6.85%, CSCO $18.21 -0.16%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 9:21:31 AM

Session low for 10-year bonds here at 110 13/16, TNX +4.9 bps at 4.353%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 9:20:24 AM

June Palladium futures (pa05m) $209.00 -0.38% .... updated chart with conventional (BLUE) and fitted 38.2% (PINK) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 9:18:54 AM

Scanning charts this morning, I note that the OEX settled right on its five-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages now at 584.75 and 584.30, respectively. Bears would prefer for the OEX to open below those averages and then to see them serve as resistance. Bulls would prefer the opposite.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 9:17:03 AM

The US Dollar Index is dropping Link with April gold up 2.50 to 438.30 here, silver up .165. to 7.56. The Bank for Internation Settlements' quarterly report is out, and reports that Indian and Chinese central and commercial banks reduced their percentage holdings of US dollars from 81% in Q3 2001 to 67% in Sept. 2004.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 8:40:12 AM

The OEX ended the day having printed a gravestone doji at the top of a climb. That's not something bulls want to see. They certainly don't want to see it followed by a gap lower this morning and then a move down from there. That looked like a possibility earlier this morning with futures down, but they're now coming off their early morning lows, so it's difficult to know how much further they'll climb.

The OEX wasn't the only index to create such a candle, with the RLX and BIX, two indices important to the OEX, also producing such candles. It may be time for indices to consolidate or even to pull back. Perhaps interesting to those mulling over the Dow's approach to 11,000 and wondering if there will be a concerted push to this level might be the Nikkei's equally closely watched approach to 12,000. Monday, the Nikkei reached an intraday high of 11,975.00 on a day when it completed the eighth day of a winning streak. Tuesday, traders took profits without the Nikkei hitting that 12,000 mark, although the decline was not steep.

The OEX ended the day on 15-minute Keltner support, having minimally confirmed a H&S with a downside target at about 562.40. Bulls want to see the OEX open and charge right back across that neckline, at about 584.50, while bears want to see a gap down below the Keltner support at yesterday's closing level. Bears want to see the OEX maintain 15-minute closes beneath that Keltner support near 584.24, and then see the OEX drop toward the next 581.36-582.14 downside target.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 8:35:56 AM

Gold and silver are up to session highs here, gold +1.40 at 437.2, silver +.185 or 2.54% to 7.58. Ten year bonds continue lower, with TNX up 3.6 bps to 4.34%.

QQQQ is up to a 4 cent loss at 38.02. There's trendline resistance at 38.10 from yesterday's afternoon decline, above which the declining 30 min cycle channel top is at 38.20.

Jane Fox : 3/8/2005 8:25:19 AM

Date line WSJ Though the surging price of oil is nearing a recent high and analysts foresee more increases ahead, greater energy efficiency and a streamlined manufacturing sector are giving the U.S. economy surprising resiliency.

The economy's solid 3.8% growth in the fourth quarter underscores how the U.S. has retooled itself since the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s helped induce recessions. Petroleum-intensive industries like chemicals and steelmaking have grown more efficient -- in part by moving more jobs offshore, to places where oil and natural gas are cheaper. They also make up a shrinking part of the economy, while sectors that are less energy-intensive like software or financial services play a growing role.

As a result, the amount of oil and gas needed to produce a dollar of economic growth dropped by 55% between 1973 and 2003, according to the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. Moreover, U.S. energy expenditures have declined to about 7% of gross domestic product from nearly 14% in 1981, the agency says

Jonathan Levinson : 3/8/2005 7:50:46 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1223.75, NQ 1542.5, YM 10925 and QQQQ -.06 at 38. Gold is up 80 cents at 436.60, silver up .035 at 7.43, ten year notes down .1094 at 111 3/64, and cryde oil is down .525 at 53.375.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 3/8/2005 7:15:14 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei broke its winning streak last night as investors rethought yesterday's lower capital spending number and its impact on the GDP number to be released next week. European markets turn lower, weighed down by declines in semi-related stocks. Our futures are modestly lower, too. As of 6:26 EST, gold was up $0.70, crude, down $0.54. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei broke its winning streak without yet hitting 12,000. Monday's 11,975 high has been its closest approach. The Nikkei opened in the green, but didn't stay that way long, with some investors electing to take profits after an eight-day winning streak, the longest in more than five years. Yesterday's much-lower-than-expected capital spending number may finally have hit traders, too, with that number perhaps impacting the GDP number due next Monday. Domestic-demand-related issues dropped. The Nikkei closed lower by 38.45 points or 0.32%, at 11,886.91.

January's employment figures proved encouraging, with temporary and full-time staff both rising and with total compensation rising 0.4% year-over-year. Overtime pay rose again, as it has been doing for thirty months. An economy watchers survey improved, with the improvement at least partly due to the improving jobs situation.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.76%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.72%. South Korea's Hynix Semiconductor dropped as creditors revealed revised plans for disposing of a 24% stake in the company. Singapore's Straits Times eased 0.25%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.80%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.90%. One article reports that Merrill Lynch increased China's weighting to 8% from its former 4% in Merrill's asset allocation model for Asia excluding Japan.

Many European markets turn lower, with chip-related issues weighing the indices down after TXN's report. ASML also received a downgrade from UBS. In addition, Volkswagen cautioned that Q1 operating profit might not meet expectations. Two European chemical companies missed forecasts, with one blaming higher materials costs and a weaker dollar for its difficulties. Action in telecoms was mixed, as J.P. Morgan upgraded KPN and CSFB downgraded competitor Belgacom.

Also in Europe, an ECB member said in an interview that the eurozone's economic slowdown is temporary, but that Germany must see improvement before the eurozone's economy booms. Although the inflationary outlook remains stable for now, he sees the possibility of inflation ahead that would be addressed or headed off by rate hikes. For now, the economic situation stays the hands of ECB members in raising rates, but a time will come when they will need to remove some liquidity from the system.

As of 7:06 EST, the FTSE 100 was down 9.00 points or 0.18%, to 5,018.20. The CAC 40 was lower by 8.78 points or 0.21%, to 4,099.22, obviously having broken below 5,000. The DAX was lower by 11.95 points or 0.27%, to 4,416.14.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2005 3:48:09 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.40 and set for program selling at $-0.70.

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