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Tab Gilles : 3/9/2005 11:06:06 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Came close to a sell on my trailing stop using the 10-ema. Let's see what happens Thursday. Link

Longterm oil will probably go higher, but I think some sort of pullback is needed. Agree with tonight's New Option Play on OIH reasoning. Link

Murphy Oil pullback towards 100 or 150 ema. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:31:12 PM

Wednesday's Closing Internals at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/9/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 6:09:18 PM

Cancel order alert for QQQQ ... canceling any open orders for QQQQ at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 6:07:58 PM

Computer Technology Index (XCI.X) 694.91 -0.28% ... see that "bad tick" to 691.35 (12:30-12:35)? If I punch in today's h/l/c I would get a DAILY S1 of 691.89. (Hmmm.... drop and a pop?)

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 5:57:20 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link ... looks a bit like a possible "drop then pop" for tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 5:15:14 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 5:01:27 PM

I was more focused on trading the QQQQ yesterday and today, but bulk of today's weakness in the DIA/INDU latter-half of session was sharp decline in Exxon/Mobil (XOM) from $64-$61. XOM went out at $60.79 -3.66%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 4:25:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity .... Bearish swing trade closed out QQQQ at $37.70 (09:38:53) with result of ($+0.22, or +0.58%) Bullish swing trade long 1/2 position in shares of Hercules (HPC) at $15.41, stop $14.40, targeting $20.00. Bearish swing trade short the QQQQ at $37.89 and like clockwork achieved bearish target of $37.51 with result of ($+0.38, or +1.01%) Bullish day trade long shares of Elan (ELN) at $7.60, but closed out shy of target at $7.80. ($+0.20, or +2.63%). Adjusted Stops for both FRX calls (see 1:34:50) and SWC stock (see 09:46:48).

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 4:03:35 PM

QQQQ ... goes out at $37.57 (big block level) ... Will be looking BULLISH tomorrow on STENGTH at $37.67 (regular session only). DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow are $37.20, $37.38, Piv= $37.66, $37.84, $38.12.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:59:34 PM

QQQQ $37.57 ... if the Qs close here, tomorrow's DAILY Pivot would be $37.66.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:58:11 PM

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,524.02 -0.3% ... it DID NOT trade WEEKLY Pivot. QQQQ may have been overdone.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 3:55:40 PM

The 15-minute Keltner channel's downside target has now drifted down to 575.54. The original downside target when the breakout signal was created was 576.63, and I've noticed that sometimes, the original target is met rather than the amended one as prices moved toward the sinking-lower target. The LOD has been just a few cents below that original target. Bears, continue to protect profits.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:53:04 PM

QQQQ probably closes at $37.68.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 3:51:19 PM

Session lows breaking here on big volume- 30 and 60 min channel support being tested at 37.45 QQQQ. If that level lets go, the rising uptrend on the 30 min chart as well as the daily cycle upphase will be in jeopardy.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 3:51:03 PM

The Nikkei closed about 26 points below 12,000 last night. January's machinery orders number will be released tonight, with expectations for a month-over-month increase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:51:02 PM

Jonathan .... are your Keltner indications still bullish?

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:50:39 PM

QQQQ $37.48 -0.55% ... gets the correlative support trade.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 3:47:00 PM

The BIX's decline suggested the OEX might fall, too, but bears need to make a decision as to whether they're going to hold overnight or not as the OEX draws nearer the next Keltner support. The BIX fell, but it's still just testing these averages, perhaps primed to bounce from them tomorrow morning or perhaps to plunge beneath them.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 3:43:26 PM

QQQQ testing lower rising support again. A bounce from here will target the 37.71 line, while a break south targets the session lows. Possible rising triangle resistance ast 37.71, but the line has to hold here: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 3:42:00 PM

The BIX is below the 200-sma, testing the 200-ema, near its LOD.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:40:28 PM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.95 +2.18% ... session high! BIIIIIIG test still ahead at $15.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:38:20 PM

Nothing like a tight pair of shoes to make a bear's foot hurt!

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:32:30 PM

Bullish day trade stopped alert ... for Elan (ELN) $7.80

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 3:29:45 PM

The OEX threatens to bounce back into that consolidation formation after having broken minimally lower. This is a potential warning sign of a fake-out move, trapping bears. So far, the OEX still maintains a configuration that points its smallest Keltner channel down toward 575.78.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:26:22 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert to $7.80 for Elan (ELN)

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:25:47 PM

Elan (ELN) $7.92 and BLUE #5.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:22:49 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... in Elan (ELN) $7.83 +9.81% ... to $7.74.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 3:20:52 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link . Lower rising support held again.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 3:20:40 PM

Minimal OEX break out of the consolidation zone that's been building all day, but unless bears get some downside movement going, this risks being a fake-out move.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:19:13 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 3:14:53 PM

The Dow and the OEX are being pressured by an exactly congruent configuration of Keltner lines. The DOW is seeing continued 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 10,845.85, a needed development to keep alive the potential target of 10,781.09. Like the OEX, the Dow stays within the consolidation formation it has set up all afternoon, with a single light level of support forming now near the bottom of that level. That supporting line, at 10,822.95, is about to be tested. Bears want to see 15-minute closes beneath this line.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:09:03 PM

Elan (ELN) $7.76 +9.97% ... here we go! BLUE #4

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 3:07:36 PM

Session low for ZN bonds at 108 57/64, on an amazing 1.134M June contracts. TNX is now up 13.9 bps at 4.514%, a 3.18% gain from yesterday's close.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 3:05:11 PM

The OEX continues to produce 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 579.32, preserving the possibility of a move toward a Keltner line that has now drifted down to 575.94, but it has not yet broken beneath a consolidation formation at the bottom of today's range. Keltner support is trying to form near the bottom of that zone, at 578.17, but it appears light so far. Still, it echoes the support being seen in that area all afternoon, so the bears' first test is to break through that level. Bears should have profit-protecting plans in place, especially as the day draws to a close. Those on the futures side have been mentioning expectations for INTC tomorrow, so that some bears might want to take profits by the close. Watch for that possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 3:02:13 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 2:59:30 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link . Volume is light again today after a heavy morning- currently running 79.2M shares so far compared with 89.6M for the entire day yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 2:57:34 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert .... for Elan (ELN) $7.67 +7.57% ... to $7.58. Really "shouldn't" come back under the $7.63 level.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 2:46:43 PM

The TRAN has been trading straight out sideways for a couple of hours, with neither the usually helpful 15-minute nested Keltner charts nor the MACD giving any clues now as to next direction.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 2:44:52 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Elan (ELN) $7.72 +8.13% ... to $7.52.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 2:41:18 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,212.77, DIA $108.54, QQQQ $37.68.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 2:40:51 PM

Today, the Russell 2000 continued its downturn through the ascending regression channel on its daily chart, with that channel forming the beginning of this year. The RUT bounced off the 30-sma, with today appearing to be a day when the 30-sma is important to several indices. The 50-sma lies below for the RUT, coinciding roughly with the bottom-of-the-channel support, both just under 628.45. The RUT is at 634.64 as I type. A move down to the bottom of the channel looks possible for the RUT, although perhaps not today if that 30-sma continues to hold up as support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 2:40:21 PM

Elan (ELN) $7.67 +7.71% ... day trader's chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 2:39:52 PM

The big upside move for treasuries continues, TNX now up 12.8 bps at 4.503%, a 2.93% gain today. Bollinger resistance on the daily chart is at 4.514%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 2:38:11 PM

Elan (ELN) $7.67 +7.43% ... DAILY R2 here. WEEKLY R1 higher at $8.39. Day trader's chart coming.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 2:37:17 PM

GE is back minimally below its 50-sma.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 2:33:14 PM

The OEX is producing 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner lines needed to preserve the possibility of a push down toward 576. The OEX did punch above the Keltner line currently at 579.34, but didn't close above it. So far, the breakout level is preserved with a target to the next channel line, but the OEX still forms a consolidation pattern at the bottom of today's descent, with the breakout direction from that consolidation not yet known. The financials in the BIX may be at least partly responsible for that final direction, with those stocks either bouncing from the current test of the converging 200-sma and -ema's or falling below those MA's.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 2:29:50 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for shares of Elan (ELN) $7.60 here, stop $7.45, target $8.00 by the close. Yesterday I noted that I tried to short the stock, but Ameritrade had no stock to loan. Has me thinking there's no stock to short and shorts are a covering!

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 2:27:45 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link . The 30 min cycle is chopped up, with the oscillator stalled at a higher low and the 60 min trying to turn up in oversold territory.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 2:25:49 PM

Fed's Beige Book at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 2:25:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 2:21:14 PM

Chicago Fed President Moskow speaks, somewhat refuting the Beige Book information I just mentioned, at least on first reading. He's saying that there might still be some slack in the labor market, with economic growth moderately below potential. He believes it appropriate to keep the "measured" pace of rate hikes. He believes inflation to be in check over the long term.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 2:18:52 PM

Beige book release reveals these details: expansion of the economy continues at a moderate pace and wage gains are moderate, too, in most areas. Some districts report larger wage gains, and some report more ability to pass on higher costs to consumers. Manufacturing expansions, acceptable inventories reports by retailers, and a generally optimistic outlook are reported. Consumer spending may be somewhat sluggish in some areas, although it is characterized as steady or moderately higher.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/9/2005 2:18:30 PM

I exited earlier the DIA April 109 puts for break-even. The reason being that I'm now thinking new highs after INTC update and would rather be in on the 110 puts, same price. It might be premature to think that way, but I don't think bulls are done quite yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 2:15:59 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 2:12:24 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 2:07:24 PM

The RLX turned lower this morning, but so far finds support on the 30-sma. OEX bears want to see the RLX drop below the 30-sma at 437.31, with the RLX currently at 439.13.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 2:04:10 PM

Careful, OEX bulls and bears. The BIX again tests the converging 200-ema's and -sma's at 361.02 and 361.51, respectively, with the BIX at 361.72. The BIX punched through these averages earlier, but now sits just above them. A sustained move below these averages would be bad for OEX bulls, but a strong bounce produced by these averages would be equally bad for bears. Keep a watch on this.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 2:03:20 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 2:01:36 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link . Ten year bonds are weakening again, TNX up 9.7 bps to 4.472% now, a 2.26% gain for the day.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 1:59:32 PM

Just can't squash the TRAN, can you? It's well off its LOD. Usually the TRAN trades fairly well in accordance with the 15-minute nested Keltner charts according to the settings I use (as does the Dow, by the way), but right now, that chart isn't giving much information about the TRAN. Both resistance and support lines are widely scattered on that chart. I do note that there had been a potential H&S on the TRAN's chart with a descending neckline, with the TRAN now doing its best not to round down into a right shoulder for that formation. It hasn't quite undone the formation, but it's doing its best.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 1:57:26 PM

QQQQ $37.65 -0.10% ... bouncing here, but for SWING TRADE BULLISH setup, I have not gotten a test/trade at $37.48 yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 1:53:09 PM

April Crude Oil futures (cl05j) $55.45 +1.57% (30-minute delayed) ... broke to new contract highs at 12:15-12:20 and ran to WEEKLY R1 of $55.73.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 1:47:57 PM

Back unexpectedly to finish the day. I note that the OEX did close the first 15-minute period below the Keltner line then at 582.06, setting up a much lower downside target. (See my 7:05 post from this morning for an explanation.) I'm just getting up to speed here, but here's what I see on the 15-minute Keltner chart: The OEX appears to be rising in a potential bear flag, doing so from one of the potential support levels spaced about two-points apart as the OEX declines. As long as 15-minute closes continue to be below 579.68, Keltners suggest a potential downside of 576.22. A 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 581.84 undoes that potenial downside target. Things are iffy with closes between those two levels. As I suggested yesterday and again this morning, bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 1:42:47 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 1:34:50 PM

Bullish swing trade call option raise place stop alert ... for Forest Labs' Link two (2) FRX May $45 Calls (FHA-EI) and a stop should the underlying stock trade $40.50.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 1:23:50 PM

QQQQ updated 5-minute chart with QCharts' WEEKLY and DAILY Pivot levels. Along with analysis at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 1:23:52 PM

The 30 and 60 min channels are in sync to the downside as the oscillators stall stall early in their upphases, the 30 min ticking down. The lows printed for QQQQ and NQ are testing a rising support line on the 30 min charts connecting the lows since mid-February. A failure below these lows would be a disaster for bulls, and abort the daily cycle upphase less than a week after it began. Volume is so far timid on the bounce, with previous 37.55-.60 resistance now being tested.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 1:18:43 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 1:08:14 PM

The 15B treasury auction generated a bid to cover ratio of 2.58 at a rate of 4.08%. TNX is down to 4.453% here, +7.8 bps.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 1:05:56 PM

Bullish swing trade setup alert ... for the QQQQ $37.55 -0.34% ... let's turn and go long the QQQQ should it TRADE $37.48 and then take the BULLISH ENTRY HIGHER at $37.65, stop $37.40, target $38.00. In essence ... let the QQQQ trade the support correlation, then look for strength to $37.65 to play the upside move.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 1:02:37 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 12:58:32 PM

Bearish swing trade target alert for the QQQQ $37.51.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 12:54:41 PM

QQQQ $37.60 .... "pound, pound, pound, pound." Bugger won't break.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 12:52:52 PM

Sell Program Premium .... SPX 1,212.66, DIA $108.43, QQQQ $37.57

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 12:52:51 PM

Big volume spike here on the drop, nearly 1.4M QQQQ shares in 100 ticks, retesting the session low- a very bearish development.

Tab Gilles : 3/9/2005 12:50:27 PM

EUR/USD Selling of the dollar and buying safety of gold. Link

Gold 12:48PM Bid/442.00; Ask/442.50 +2.00 +0.45% Low/439.10; High/442.80

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 12:46:50 PM

Session highs for CAD and Euro futures, with gold now hitting a new high at 443.50. The decline in the USD here is doing little for equities or treasuries, however.

Tab Gilles : 3/9/2005 12:41:04 PM

GOLD 12:38PM Bid/441.70; Ask/442.20; +1.70 +0.39% Low/439.10 High/442.30

GLD Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 12:53:34 PM

QQQQ $37.69 +0.02% ... "bad tick" to $37.00. Session low has been $37.57. Session high has been $37.93. Hmmmm.... $37.57. I wonder where that comes from? (grin) (I'm thinking 02/02/05 and 08:18:23 MM post)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 12:37:32 PM

Session high for silver here, +1.7% at 7.668, gold 10 cents away at 442.90. Nymex crude is up 1.56% at 55.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 12:27:54 PM

So much for the right shoulder, which has extended too far here. Last ditch for the bulls is at the session lows, below which the 30 and 60 min cycle upphases will be in jeopardy several hours too soon.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 12:17:10 PM

The 30 min cycle upphase staled on the drop, and the short cycle downphase continues, not yet oversold. If price can hold a higher low, then this drop might comprise the right shoulder of a reverse h&s on the 2 day chart. A break south to the session low will invalidate that, while a break above 37.90, 37.96 max, would be a neckline break- a surge in volume on the break will confirm.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 12:11:53 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/9/2005 12:10:29 PM

GOLD 12:08 PM Bid/440.60; Ask/441.10 +0.60 +0.14% Low/439.10 High/441.90 Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 12:04:08 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 12:01:57 PM

7200 tick SMA break here, 37.75 being tested now.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 12:01:08 PM

Ten year treasury yields continue to hang at the highs, while gold creeps higher and QQQQ hangs above the rising 7200 tick SMA, also off its highs.

If this morning's drop was caused by the spike in yields, then this could be a distribution spike for QQQQ and gold (and, perhaps, the CRB). However, because of yesterday's higher low and the daily cycle upphase, the benefit of the doubt goes to the cycles. QQQQ's short cycle downphase is so far corrective. Provided that price holds above the 37.75 line on this downphase, the next up should break the 37.90 resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 12:00:31 PM

April Crude Oil (cl05j) ... 30-minute interval chart at this Link ... just remember though... it's PRICE that matters most.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:56:32 AM

MASSIVE bearish divergence found in the April Crude Oil futures on 30-minute time interval from MACD. Crude $54.80 +0.38% (30-minute delayed)

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:49:15 AM

SOX.X 440.09 +1.06% ... challenges morning high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:44:39 AM

QQQQ $37.80 +0.31% ... its 11:15-11:20 low was $37.76

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:43:38 AM

DIA $108.96 -0.18% ... its 11:15-11:20 trade was a low of $108.90.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:42:40 AM

Buy/Sell Program Premiums ... one buy and 5 sell so far this morning. Last sell was at 11:15-11.20 AM EST.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 11:39:32 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/9/2005 11:32:26 AM

Cisco (CSCO) Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:24:01 AM

QQQQ alert ... we should should be swing trade short in my current OPEN MM profiles at $38.89, stop $38.10, target $37.51.

Tab Gilles : 3/9/2005 11:20:48 AM

Jonathan....I was just annotating a $TNX chart. I noticed that gap also. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:20:24 AM

Juniper Networks (JNPR) $23.62 +4.65% ... (see 11:19:15)

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:19:15 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.48 +1.98% ... Chambers saying company may break from recent trend and make large-scale acquisition in 2005.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 11:19:04 AM

The pattern inside the 37.75-37.90 has morphed from a bull wedge to a rising triangle to a pure mess at this point, with QQQQ hanging below 37.90 resistance but above the 7200 tick SMA. The short cycle delivered its upphase and is trying to pull back, which is now opposed to the 30 and 60 min channel upphases. Unless 37.90 breaks from here, the price should pull back to a higher low, base and rise for a retest of the 37.90 line, which should break. Because the daily cycle remains bullish, the 30 and 60 min upphases should remain strong today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:17:08 AM

Altair Nanothech (ALTI) $4.28 +10.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:14:59 AM

Jonathan .... what are those 5-different indicators on your QQQQ chart saying?

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:10:17 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 11:04:56 AM

One year daily TNX chart at this Link . Squint and you can see today's breakaway gap up.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 11:03:28 AM

No reprieve for ten year treasuries, with TNX back up to an 8.6 bp gain at 4.461%, a 1.97% increase today. Chart to follow.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 11:01:40 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 10:56:36 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:54:42 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,218.18, DIA $109.12, QQQQ $37.87

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:49:22 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... taking 1/2 bullish position in Hercules (NYSE:HPC) $15.41 +4.82% here, stop $14.40, target $20.00.

Tab Gilles : 3/9/2005 10:49:42 AM

This week marks the 5 year "Bubble Mania" anniversary for the markets. Here are 2 charts, $VIX, $WTIC, $SPX and $USD, one chart is 5 year the other from the bottom and the current 2 year rally. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:47:08 AM

Hercules (HPC) $15.37 +4.48% Link ... nice move above 4-month resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 10:44:16 AM

Volume is declining again on the pullback off the inventory spike high. A break above 37.85 should target the 37.90 resistance level next. The 30 min cycle has turned up, and a break of that level will confirm 30 and 60 min upphases underway.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:44:07 AM

Market Guage at this Link (stick this one in your browswer "favorites") There's North American Palladium (PAL) ... see it?

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:41:14 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 10:34:58 AM

QQQQ chart update: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:32:40 AM

QQQQ $37.86

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:32:12 AM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,217, DIA $109.02, QQQQ $37.83

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:31:37 AM

QQQQ $37.80

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 10:33:43 AM

Session low for Nymex crude, diving to 54.225 here- still don't have the data- here it is: Crude oil inventories rose 3.2M barrels, vs. 1.7M barrel rise, gasoline inventories fell 200K barrels vs. 125K exp. decline, distillates fell 800K barrels vs. -1.8M exp.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:31:19 AM

QQQQ $37.78

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:31:01 AM

QQQQ $37.75

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:30:25 AM

QQQQ $37.71 ....

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 10:26:41 AM

QQQQ continues to struggle with 7200 tick SMA resistance here, with the inventory data due in the next few minutes: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:22:24 AM

QQQQ $37.64 ... intra-day chart with upper (blue) and lower (red) 5-mrt as well as QCharts' daily pivot levels. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:14:55 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 10:08:03 AM

QQQQ is holding the previous low, going net nowhere. The 30 min cycle is still dead without a twitch at the oversold bottom, while the SOX's 30 min cycle oscillators are printing buy signals and trying for an upphase. The narrow range has the 30 min cycle bands for QQQQ tightening, support rising to 37.50. If QQQQ bounces from here, that bounce should be good for a nested 30/60 min upphase to last the rest of the day- but a failure here would be a tending move verging on a "crash" in the 30 min and possibly 60 min timeframes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:06:47 AM

VIX.X 12.39 -0.08% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.82, 12.15, Piv = 12.32, 12.65, 12.81

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 10:03:04 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 9:59:07 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just added 7B to replace the 8B overnight repo expiring today, for a net drain of 1B.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:57:15 AM

June Palladium (pa05m) 202.10 -3.62% ... updated chart with SWC price correlations at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 9:53:32 AM

QQQQ revisits the low here- do or doodoo time for the bulls on the double bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:46:48 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... let's raise a bullish stop in remaining 1/2 bullish position in shares of Stillwater Mining (SWC) $12.13 +0.08% to $11.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 9:45:34 AM

QQQQ's pulling back off 37.76. If it bounces above the premarket low, a short cycle upphase should kick off, confirmed by a break above 37.77. Volume is declining on the pullback so far.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:44:24 AM

June Palladium (pa05m) 204.80 -2.33% ... Stillwater Mining (SWC) $12.18 +0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:40:50 AM

Bearish swing trade setup alert ... for the QQQQ .... look to go short again at $38.89, stop $38.10, target $37.51.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 9:40:21 AM

Gold sold off slightly with equities this morning, but held a low of 439.80 on the April contract, currently bouncing to 441.30, with HUI and XAU both up fractionally. Crude oil held a high of 55 this morning, while TNX remains above 4.4%, which should now act as downside support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:38:53 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert for the QQQQ $37.70 +0.08% here. Looking $37.85 minimum.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/9/2005 9:36:20 AM

Exit April 109 puts now at 1.50, break-even.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:35:40 AM

SOX.X 438.59 +0.72% ... ramps to DAILY Pivot early.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:34:17 AM

QQQQ $37.67 -0.06%

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:33:53 AM

VIX.X 12.25 -1.2%

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:33:26 AM

TRIN 0.72 -44.18%

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:31:46 AM

QQQQ $37.67 ... just noting that this morning's pre-market high was $37.85 (DAILY Pivot)

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:29:21 AM

Futures Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 9:26:11 AM

QQQQ broke yesterday's low and is now trading a range between 37.60 and 37.70. The 30 min cycle oscillators are trending in oversold as the 60 min cycle downphase reaches oversold following yesterday's decline. If the premarket lows do not hold, the declining channel bands indicate support down at 37.45. Throughout, the daily cycle remains in an upphase, and despite yesterday's bearishness the Monday low was never broken, with a higher low printed for the day. 30 and 60 minute support should therefore hold if support if tested- a failure to do so would be very bearish, and suggest a daily cycle whipsaw/trap of the same order as that seen in the TNX this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:23:10 AM

QQQQ $37.65 ... evident in my opinion that computer have the Qs parked to lower end of $37.48-$38.04 range. This may make some sense to reduce risk into today's EIA report. While June Crude Oil futures (cl05j) $54.77 +0.32% haven't violated last Thursday's floor trade of $55.20, both the Unleaded Gas and Heating Oil contracts have, thus some suggesting of further bullish bias to oil. While we've "lost" the higher oil and lower broader market correlation of late, we have seen more of a drag on tech-related stocks. QQQQ $37.65 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 9:20:59 AM

Bonds continue to hold their morning losses while rising off the lows, with TNX pulling down to 4.448%, a 7.3 bp or 1.67% gain this morning. These are highs not seen since July 2004. From Reuters:

...Traders could offer no single reason for the move, just as on Tuesday when prices fell sharply, but the uncertainty itself was bearish. Much of the selling came from leveraged speculators seeking to break technical triggers and some dealers also heard talk of sales from Asian central banks.

Lurking in the background were worries about incipient inflation given sky high commodity prices, rising oil, a falling dollar, a tightening labor market and a U.S. economy growing above trend.

"This is looking like a watershed for the market here," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer. "The clear break of the range augers much higher yields and could well force convexity hedging from the mortgage guys."

...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2005 9:15:38 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+1.48 and set for program selling at $-0.58.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 8:22:31 AM

The cash bond market has just opened, with TNX up a whopping 9.4 bps at 4.469%, which is a breakout and completes the upside whipsaw for the daily cycle.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 8:20:04 AM

I'm coming up dry so far with market-external news. Bonds remain very weak, with ZN futures now down .5781 to 109 11/64. This steep drop represents a break above yesterday's TNX high. A breakout for yields, the TNX above 4.4%, should pressure equities. QQQQ is back to unchanged at 37.68. Still, the drop was sudden, which would indicate a piece of news or a rumor.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 8:10:02 AM

The futures have whipsawed strongly and suddenly south, all indices now red at session lows. Looking for news now, but nothing so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 8:05:02 AM

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that the Mortgage Index declined .7% to 704.8, following the prior week's 2.4% decline. The Refi Index fell 4.6% to 2176.8 following a 9.9% drop the previous week. The Purchase Index rose 2.7% to 451.7 following the previous week's 5.3% gain.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/9/2005 7:44:36 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1225.25, NQ 1538, YM 10929 and QQQQ +.21 at 37.89. Gold is up .70 at 441.80, silver +.06 at 7.60, ten year notes down .4844 at 109 17/64 and crude oil is up .175 at 54.775.

We await the 2PM release of the Fed Beige Book. As well, the weekly mortgage data and the oil inventory data are scheduled to be released today.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 7:05:40 AM

I will not be on the MM today, as I'm traveling.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 7:05:12 AM

By Tuesday's close, the OEX had finally headed down into the 581.90-582 level that the 15-minute Keltner chart had suggested as a potential downside target all day. It took a steep fall in the next-to-last 15-minute period to meet that downside target, however.

That downside target was at Keltner mid-channel support. As I'd mentioned the potential downside target yesterday, I'd also mentioned that bears might have profit-protecting plans in place for this test, as it might produce a bounce attempt. A confirmed H&S on the 15-minute chart has a much lower downside target, but these have a nasty habit lately of confirming minimally late one trading day, with prices zooming back across the neckline the next day on their way to new highs.

The 15-minute Keltner chart's configuration and the OEX's close do not give many clues as yet as to whether the OEX will break back through that neckline on its way to a bounce or whether it will plunge lower. Here's what the chart does suggest: The OEX sits on strong enough support that without a gap-lower open, it's likely to produce a bounce attempt. That doesn't mean that the OEX might not drop slightly Wednesday morning--it might slip somewhat further before bouncing, but if the first 15-minute close is above the Keltner line currently at 582.06, the OEX might attempt a bounce, where it will face first Keltner resistance at 582.92 and then next resistance soon afterwards, at 583.58-583.99. If the first 15-minute Keltner close is below the line currently at 582.06, Keltner charts set up the possibility of a dip toward 576.70. However, both 580 and 578 are likely to provide support, too, so bears should be careful to continue to protect profits.

The BIX climbed off its LOD yesterday, and the RLX, also important to the OEX's behavior, didn't dip far, so OEX bears would like to see greater participation in the downside by these indices tomorrow. The TRAN closed near the flat-line level, moving to a minimal new high but then producing a doji at the top of its climb. While the TRAN doesn't always fall after producing a doji, it usually produces another if it does not decline the next day. That's not always true, of course, with the doji of 9/30 followed by a strong climb, for example, but most likely, the TRAN will not be providing upward market momentum tomorrow, whether or not it actually declines.

Linda Piazza : 3/9/2005 7:04:00 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei climbed in overnight trading, although it couldn't quite touch 12,000. Other Asian markets mostly gained, too, as do European markets currently. As of 7:00 EST, gold was up $1.30, and crude, up $0.11. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei climbed in early trading, within mining companies leading the early gainers. By the early afternoon, it was trying a move toward 12,000 again. It did not make that level in Wednesday's trading, but did move higher again in a burst near the close, closing at the high of the day, up 79.78 points or 0.67%, at 11,966.69. This makes its close higher than Monday's, but the intraday high lower than Monday's.

Tuesday, a Reuters-CRB Index of 17 commodities climbed to its highest level in more than 14 years, with copper and crude increases responsible for the majority of the gain. That sent the miners higher. In other stock-specific news, Renault sold its position in Nissan Diesel to JP Morgan Securities Inc. Nissan Diesel declined steeply in early trading. Both Friday and Monday, market-moving events may occur in Japan. Friday's version is the special-quotation fixing day or settlement day for March stock-index futures and options, a day that usually sees soaring volume and volatility related to distorted supply and demand conditions. With this looming on Friday, investors tended to focus on domestic-demand related issues. One such issue was retailer Aeon, gaining after a report that it might buy eight of Carrefour's stores, with the French retailer planning on pulling out of Japan. According to one newspaper, Nikon saw strong domestic and foreign sales of some cameras and semiconductor equipment and expects group operating profit for its next fiscal year to exceed earlier predictions. Nikon gained, although it closed off its intraday high.

Most Asian markets closed higher, despite some nervousness in the region over China's new statement about Taiwan's succession. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.65%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.85%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 1.10%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.43%. China's Shanghai Composite closed lower by 0.11%.

Most European markets trade higher. As happened in Japan, oil and miners led early morning U.K. gains. In continental Europe, profit updates from Adidas-Salomon and chemicals company BASF helped, as does the strong performance of a German IPO. This IPO is Premier AG, Germany's only pay-TV broadcaster. BASF's update goes counter to the trend among other chemicals company, with two missing forecasts this week. In addition, EADS also raised forecasts, but declined instead of gained. In other stock-specific news, software developer SAP declined after Oracle last night indicated that it would trump SAP's offer for Retek.

As of 7:02 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 26.30 points or 0.52%, to 5,037.20. The CAC 40 had climbed 18.50 points or 0.45%, to 4,103.88. The DAX had climbed 29.28 points or 0.67%, to 29.28.

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