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Tab Gilles : 3/10/2005 11:49:45 PM

Market rotation out of oil into tech perhaps??? Link

Tab Gilles : 3/10/2005 11:45:24 PM

All day Thursday, I heard on CNBC and other news channels..."If oil prices have peaked, where will investor put money?"

Good question? Perhaps technology after the Intel report? Keep an eye on INTC & CSCO hitting resistance. Sector rotation? Link Link Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/10/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 7:09:23 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) ... last tick was $16.98.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 7:08:39 PM

QQQQ ... last tick was $37.63.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 7:07:33 PM

Intel (INTC) all over the map in extended session. Last tick at $25.28 with after-hours high/low of $25.50-$24.79. Volume in extended was rather light at just 9.45 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 6:42:54 PM

Closing Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 6:27:22 PM

Here... have 500 INTC of mine from $25.02. Selling 500 long at $25.25

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 6:21:05 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 5:51:24 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 5:09:12 PM

Sears (S) $53.36 +0.13% ... higher at $55.23. (merging with KMRT end of March)

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 5:05:10 PM

KMart (KMRT) $112.11 +0.40% ... surged to $119.00 in extended session after UBS upgrade and price target of $160! KMRT is a NDX/QQQQ component.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 5:01:17 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity .... We were bullish swing trade stopped out in the remaining 1/2 Stillwater Mining (SWC) at $11.85. ($+0.84, or +7.63%) Day trade shorted a full position in the underlying QQQQ at $37.59 and achieved target at $37.41. ($+0.18, or +0.48%) Swing traded long a full position in the underlying QQQQ at $37.40, but was stopped for a loss at $37.35. ($-0.15, or -0.40%). Swing traded long 1/2 position in the underlying QQQQ at $37.51, stop is now at $37.35, with target of $37.96.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:35:39 PM

Bullish swing trade raise bullish stop alert ... will raise the bullish stop for the 1/2 QQQQ position to $37.35.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:28:55 PM

QQQQ $37.69 here

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:27:57 PM

Intel (INTC) extended session high so far has been $25.49 (penny shy of WKLY R2). I'm sticking in a bid of $25.02 for my personal account.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:19:21 PM

QQQQ $37.52 ... higher at $37.67

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:18:55 PM

Intel (INTC) $24.85 ... surging at $25.42

Jim Brown : 3/10/2005 4:16:46 PM

Alert - INTEL Update - , Revenue $9.2-9.4B 57% margins +/- 1 point. All other guidance is unchanged.

Consensus estimates were EPS +28 cents, revenue $9.1B

Whisper numbers were +30 cents, $9.45B revenue

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:15:35 PM

Didn't get a single buy/sell program premium today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:14:19 PM

Intel (INTC) went out at $24.85 ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $23.45, $24.05, Piv= $24.46, $25.06, $25.47. Tomorrow's DAILY PIVOT Levels will be $24.16, $24.50, $24.74, $25.08, $25.32.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:09:10 PM

QQQQ went out at $37.53. If looking to trade tonight's extended sessioin then tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels are ... $36.83, $37.18, Piv= $37.42, $37.77, $38.01.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:02:59 PM

My MM Profile Portfolio tracker had a "bug" in it today. I'll rebuild and try to post prior to when IT Dept. Archives the MM.

Tab Gilles : 3/10/2005 4:02:08 PM

$WTIC closed at $53.54. Is this the beginning of a large decline or just profit taking? Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 4:01:09 PM

Swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 bullish position in the QQQQ $37.51 here, stop $36.90, target $37.96. Stop and Target are for regular session only.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 3:52:25 PM

Earlier today, I commented that I'd guess that the BIX would spend today consolidating near its 200-sma and -ema's. That's about what it's done, and it will be touch and go as to whether it ends up above, at, or slightly below its 200-sma. It's a little more than $0.50 above that MA as I type, having left a long upper shadow topping a small-bodied candle today as it attempted to punch higher. The BIX steadied, certainly, but did nothing to inspire bullish confidence just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 3:42:48 PM

BIG round of profit taking in energy stocks. Up big for the quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 3:41:36 PM

I'm seeing quite a bit of "round number" type of trading, and with today being futures rollover, I get the feeling there's some quarterly expiration action kicking in. Yesterday's higher volume and today's steady volume also has me thinking quarterly expiration action being found.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 3:39:08 PM

I have no convictions for a trade (long/short or put/call) at this point. I've been sniffing around at just about everything/anything I can find and if anything... slightly more bearish looking.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 3:37:00 PM

It will be time soon to make up your mind about whether to hold overnight or not, perhaps a particularly difficult decision for bears sitting on gains. Tomorrow morning sees the January trade balance released. If you're not the kind of person who wants to take chances over economic releases, start looking for an appropriate exit point.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 3:34:20 PM

Just checked the OEX's nested Keltner channels on a 30-minute chart, and noted that the mid-channel level there corresponds fairly well to the 38.2% retracement of this plummet. Resistance lines converge there, from 579.05-579.66 (on 30-minute closes). This chart suggests that the resistance may be relatively firm and may require something stronger than the back-and-forth climb we've been seeing to push through that resistance. Support near 576.40 is relatively firm, too, but not as firm-looking as that resistance, just yet. The OEX may be poised to challenge that resistance tomorrow morning or to test the support, with the nature of the test perhaps determined by the reaction to the January Trade Balance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 3:22:26 PM

SOX.X 438.19 +0.9% ... INTC $24.76 -0.32%, AMAT $16.79 +0.72%, NVLS $28.57 +1.67%, KLAC $48.71 +1.43%

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 3:17:57 PM

The OEX is trying to steady at the appropriate right-shoulder level for an inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart. I still consider any bounce a countertrend one now, until proven otherwise, so we shouldn't necessarily count on the upside target being met if that formation is confirmed, but watching whether it confirms or not tells us about bullish strength over the very short term.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 3:09:38 PM

The Russell 2000 is below the 50-sma, but still testing it as well as the bottom support of its rising regression channel. Bulls want this support to hold.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 3:07:41 PM

The OEX tests the appropriate right-shoulder level for the inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, at the bottom of its decline. Bulls don't want to see the OEX fall too much more, while bears do, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 3:05:21 PM

I need to step away for the remainder of the session.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 3:03:30 PM

For those of you wondering what might happen on the Nikkei tonight, I wanted to mention that the Japanese GDP is to be released on Monday, I believe. A couple of numbers this month have surprised to the downside, with one at least likely to impact the GDP. Evidence is mixed, however. The end of the fiscal year is the end of this month, too, and if too big a rout should begin, those sitting on big profits might sell.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 3:03:00 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 3:01:00 PM

The OEX turns down from the right-shoulder-forming curve that was displayed in the chart linked to my 2:57 post.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 2:58:32 PM

The ten year treasury bond is powering to a strong close, but needs to close south of 4.44% to complete a key outside reversal candle. Currently TNX is down 5.9 bps at 4.455%, a -1.31% move today: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 2:57:46 PM

A potential inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 2:51:32 PM

Watch your VIX.X and TRIN in their pivots here!

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 2:50:25 PM

QQQQ took its time bouncing from 37.40 support but is now heading back for a retest of 37.60 resistance. The 30 and 60 min channels are lined up at that level, where the previous rise topped.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 2:56:59 PM

The OEX may be coming up for another test of the 38.2% retracement of the plummet from this week, with that level at 579.47.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 2:40:02 PM

The TRAN trades fairly well in accordance with its 15-minute chart, and has turned down from the mid-channel area. It pierced it on an intra-period basis, but did not close above it. It created an evening-star pattern on its 15-minute chart and is now seeing some follow-through, but has next Keltner support at 3811.19. If there's a bounce from that support, bears want to see only a brief bounce that finds resistance again near 3821.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 2:33:24 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles ... MMM $86.54 +0.48%, CD $21.93 +0.04%, EXTR $6.80 -0.65%, GLW $11.37 +0.17%, ALTI $4.24 +4.17%, FRX $40.96 -1.93%, EBAY $38.96 -2.38%, PSS $14.87 +0.13%, HPC $15.05 -1.24%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 2:28:21 PM

The CRB cracked 315 today, with FCOJ, Coffee and Cotton futures leading the charge. Currently, the CRB Index is up 1.14 at 314.84.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 2:25:29 PM

Bears should note that there's a potential inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, with the current pullback perhaps part of the right-shoulder-building exercise. Bulls don't want to see the OEX fall too much lower than 576.70, the likely right-shoulder area.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 2:23:47 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 2:15:53 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 2:11:33 PM

So far, no OEX push above the 38.2% retracement, but I'm just on a wait-and-see mode, watching the shape of the climb (somewhat troubling for bears) and the level to which the OEX climbs. I had expected that once the climb began, it might occur over a several-hour period. It began about 11:00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 2:04:03 PM

02:00 Watch at this Link Just noting "bad tick" to the upside in the XCI.X from earlier this morning. That's the "test for strength" on a daily basis in my opinion. Especially after that pop from morning test of yesterday's downside "bad tick."

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 2:01:21 PM

Headline:

1:59pm U.S. FEB BUDGET DEFICIT $113.9 BLN VS $96.7 BLN YR AGO

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 1:57:52 PM

The OEX approaches the 38.2% retracement of the plummet, with that level at just under 579.50. The 50% retracement is at just under 580.90. The OEX's climb doesn't look like a bear flag any longer, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 1:57:30 PM

QQQQ pulls back from 37.60 resistance, where it tested the upper rising 30 min channel. That channel should remain bullish above 37.40 support. The cross above that 37.40 kicked off a bullish divergent 30 min cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 1:56:00 PM

The BIX tested mid-channel resistance on its 15-minute chart. For now, that resistance near 364 has held.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 1:53:58 PM

VIX.X 12.52 -1.41% ... just moved to session low and edges under DAILY Pivot. Traders might want to check most actives for the indices they're trading.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 1:52:59 PM

SPY $121.45 +0.40% ... reclaimes its DAILY Pivot. "drop and pop, drop and pop"

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 1:48:37 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 363.44 +0.74% ... back above its DAILY Pivot and testing DAILY R1 here. While there isn't a bank in the bunch, bodes well for the QQQQ $37.54 -0.10% to reclaim its DAILY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 1:44:12 PM

The BIX has just about met the upside target predicted by the breakout above the consolidation pattern at the bottom of the range, so we'll se if that's all there is to the rise or if there's more. Mid-channel resistance on the 15-minute Keltner chart lies near 364, with the BIX now at 363.32.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 1:43:26 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 1:36:39 PM

The Russell 2000 currently balances right on its 50-sma. Today, it tested bottom support of the rising regression channel in which it's been climbing since mid-January. The 30-sma is just above the RUT's day's high, however. It would not be a good thing for the RUT to tumble out of that formation, with bottom support roughly congruent to the 100-sma, currently at 622.39. The RUT is at 628.19 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 1:33:52 PM

The BIX has broken above the consolidation pattern at the bottom of its decline, and is now above its 200-sma and -ema. Bulls want it to stay above those levels. I'm thinking potential consolidation near them.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 1:30:03 PM

Session high for ten year treasuries here at 109 15/64, TNX diving to a 4.9 bp loss at 4.465%. QQQQ just broke 37.40 resistance, the 30 min cycle now in an upphase and the 60 min channel being pressed higher.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 1:26:08 PM

The TRAN's climb also looks corrective. Since the TRAN has produced a valid reversal signal on the daily chart, I do consider its bounce a countertrend one, and that's corroborated by the shape of the bounce so far. The TRAN can really zoom around when it gets going, however, and is subject to overrunning support or resistance, much like the SOX used to do. Market bears would like to see the TRAN turn down before retracing much higher than 3830.40, the 50% retracement of the decline off the last 15-minute high.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 1:12:00 PM

Stepping away for ten minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 1:09:52 PM

The OEX has produced a 15-minute close above the Keltner resistance that had been holding it back. Initially, its rise does look corrective, so unless that changes, bears will be looking for a rise that eventually breaks lower as a bounce-and-rollover new entry and the bounce might be considered a countertrend one. The 38.2% retracement of the steep decline lies just below 579.50 and the 50%, just below 580.90. Bears want to see a breakdown before the OEX retraces higher than 581, then.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 1:04:20 PM

TNX is currently down 2.5 bps at 4.489%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 1:03:40 PM

Headlines re: the 9B treasury auction:

1:02pm $TNX TREASURY SELLS ADDITIONAL 10-YEAR NOTES AT 4.504% YIELD

1:02pm $TNX U.S. 10-YEAR NOTE AUCTION BID-TO-COVER AT 2.35

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 1:02:29 PM

QQQQ breaks 37.30 on a surge of volume here. 37.25-.30 is now support.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 1:00:03 PM

The BIX rises slightly above its 200-sma and -ema, but stays within range that it could be considered as still testing those levels. The rise off yesterday's BIX low (no new low for the BIX today) still looks like a potential bear flag, though. That failure to create a new low today looks short-term bullish; the formation in which it's rising does not.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 12:57:47 PM

The OEX still tests that Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, with resistance lines separating more widely above that level if the OEX could only break through. There's the 10-minute 21-ema at 576.81 to watch, too, as this average has been providing resistance since yesterday morning. About to be tested, it appears.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 12:56:03 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 12:43:51 PM

Back to find the OEX still testing the 15-minute Keltner line currently at 576.46, to see if it will hold as resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 12:42:14 PM

Ten year bonds are back to positive territory as the treasury auctions continues, TNX down 1.0 bps at 4.495%. QQQQ remains parked just below 37.30, while gold ticks positive. HUI and XAU have recovered part of their losses, down 1.21% at 222.01 and -1.08% at 101.72 respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 12:30:34 PM

QQQQ update at this Link . Channel support has lined up at 37.08, resistance at 37.40. The trending 30 min cycle is due for an upphase, but the failure below 37.30 bodes ill. The short cycle upphase appears to be ending early, and if so, it will be likely to retest the session lows. QQQQ is surging upward as I type, retesting 37.30 now from below.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 12:24:21 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 12:23:54 PM

The OEX tests 15-minute Keltner resistance at 576.60. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes below this resistance, but should still have those profit-protecting plans in place.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 12:10:25 PM

The TRAN punched below 3800 and now tests that level again, at 3803.34 as I type. I've turned from the 10-minute to the five-minute 21-ema on the TRAN's chart, since the TRAN's drop was so steep. That average is currently at 3806.82.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 12:07:11 PM

Volume has dried up with QQQQ holding on the 7200 tick SMA, the 30 min cycle channel flattening. Bonds have ticked back to fractional gains. Looks like the lunchtime lull came early.

Tab Gilles : 3/10/2005 12:25:42 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Took profits on remaining 1/2 position on Murphy Oil. Trailing stop 10-ema $99.50. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 11:59:29 AM

Fifteen-minute OEX Keltner resistance holds so far. Since there has yet been no bullish price/MACD divergence on that 15-minute chart, I'm wondering if bulls don't need to see a higher low or something.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 11:53:44 AM

The OEX is rising toward the 10-minute 21-ema, currently at 577.14, with tests of this average sending the OEX lower since yesterday morning. Bears want to see it hold as resistance again. Bulls don't. Having hit the downside target predicted by the 15-minute Keltner chart, the OEX may have more impetus to bounce, but I'd still watch the shape of any bounce, if so, to see whether it's a corrective movement. I'm guessing it will be, perhaps after an initial spurt higher. Actually, I'm not yet guessing there will be a bounce at all, until we see this test of the 10-minute 21-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 11:52:08 AM

QQQQ update at this Link . The spike to 36.95 was a bad tick. Upper 30 min channel resistance being tested now.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 11:44:40 AM

The OEX's 10-minute 21-ema, serving as resistance since yesterday morning, is now at 577.12.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 11:33:10 AM

QQQQ is testing 37.20 resistance from below, just above which is the declining 7200 tick SMA at 37.26. A break above that will stop the 30 min cycle's downside trending move, and above 37.30 it will begin to tick up.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 11:30:43 AM

The OEX did bounce from the downside target on the 15-minute Keltner chart, up toward 15-minute reistance, with the nearest reasonably firm resistance at 576.86. If the OEX is going to begin a corrective move that is retracement the full plummet this week, the 38.2% retracement of that plummet is just under 579.50 and the 50%, at about 580.87. It's yet to be proven whether the OEX has halted long enough to form a corrective move, however. If so, it could take a while--several hours' worth of 15-minute candles--to complete such a formation. Bears need to continue with their profit-protecting plans. Bulls, I still consider the bounce now to be short-term countertrend, so a bullish play doesn't seem a high-odds one on index options.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 11:31:43 AM

I have to leave for an appointment, but hope to be back by 01:00 PM EST. I was hoping to get established in a QQQQ swing trade long where profiled and be leaving with QQQQ back above DAILY Pivot. Not the case at this point, but I'm looking for the Q's to close closer to $38 than $37.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 11:30:21 AM

The TNX has just flipped back to positive, now up .2 bps at 4.516% after a shallow retrace of yesterday's tall upside candle. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 11:18:44 AM

Ten year treasuries have weakened during the equity decline, TNX up to a -.7 bp loss at 4.507%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 11:17:11 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 11:17:00 AM

Computer Tech Index (XCI.X) 691.04 -0.55% ... yesterday's "bad tick" here. QQQQ $37.14 SPY $120.58 DIA $107.89

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 11:16:23 AM

The OEX hits the downside target of the 15-minute Keltner charts. Next resistance is near 575.48, according to that chart, with resistance near 576.80 looking a bit stronger. Above that, Keltner lines space out on this chart. This is a potential bounce point, so bears want to see this resistance hold if the OEX bounces.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 11:15:23 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 11:10:33 AM

Daily rising trendline support is at 37.00, followed by the daily channel trendline that has supported the lows since the January low at 36.70. The 30 min chart's rising trendline support is now broken.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 11:07:38 AM

QQQQ comes in for a test of 37.18-.20 support, a confluence level and current descending 30 min channel support. The 7200 tick SMA is down to 37.40, below which the 30 min cycle trending move continues.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 11:05:25 AM

The OEX is breaking minimally through yesterday's low, perhaps headed down toward the 15-minute Keltner downside target, now at 574.98. Bears should continue to follow the OEX lower with their stops. The 30-dma is at 374.33, with some stocks or indices having found support lately on their 30-dma's, so that's a next place below that downside target to suspect a possible steadying or bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 11:05:05 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 11:03:36 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for the QQQQ $37.25

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 10:58:43 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 10:57:57 AM

The BIX hasn't budged far today. It's still testing its 200-sma.

Tab Gilles : 3/10/2005 10:57:19 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Finding resistance at descending trend line. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 10:48:28 AM

The TRAN continues lower, testing 3800 now.

Tab Gilles : 3/10/2005 10:47:28 AM

I've been pointing out on the $SOX & SMH Bearish Divergences, INTC seems to be lagging a few days behind the indexes.

SOX.X Link Link Link Link

INTC Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:45:28 AM

SPY $121.01 +0.03% ... no bad ticks here. Morning resistance has been DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:44:02 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) 108.25 +0.22% ... I see a "bad tick" to $107.73. Could be in play unless we ramp back up through the DAILY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 10:40:50 AM

The OEX attempts to steady ahead of yesterday's low. Until it produces sustained 15-minute moves above the Keltner line currently at 577.74, it remains vulnerable to that low and then to the lower Keltner channel target.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 10:38:53 AM

The Fed followed up the 12B 14-day repo with a whopping 10B overnight repo, which results in a net add of 6B for the day. I believe that the amount is this high because of the ten year treasury auction, the results of which come out at 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:38:49 AM

Computer Tech Index (XCI.X) 693.76 -0.16% ... not even close to yesterday's "bad tick" of 691.20 at this point. It's RED #6 is 690.76 today. QQQQ $37.32 did trade its RED #6 at $37.30

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 10:34:12 AM

Session low for crude oil here at 54.075, bouncing as I type to 54.20.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 10:32:28 AM

GE pushing minimally above the 50-dma again.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 10:32:38 AM

QQQQ tests descending 30 min channel support here at 37.32. Broken trendline resistance is now 37.40, below which QQQQ is bearish. The 30 min downphase, which represents a trending move, remains bearish below the 7200 tick SMA at 37.52. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 10:30:35 AM

Treasury Secretary Snow speaks out again in favor of the strong dollar, while also showing a laissez faire attitude toward foreign sales of dollar-backed assets, which certainly isn't going to do much to shore up the dollar. IMO.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:28:07 AM

Swing trade long alert ... let's go long the QQQQ $37.40 here, stop $37.25 to begin, target $37.90.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 10:25:46 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner charts still maintain an outlook that keeps the 575.12 (new) downside target as a possibility. Bears should keep their profit-protecting plans in effect as the OEX turns toward a retest of the day's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 10:23:23 AM

Bonds have weakened again, TNX up a to 2.9 bps loss at 4.485%. Gold is sliding sideways down 1.20 at 441.70, crude oil down .375 at 54.40, and QQQQ chopping along the lows.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:23:05 AM

Bearish day trade target alert .... QQQQ $37.41

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:22:41 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 10:15:37 AM

This move keeps alive the potential downside target of 575.17 (new) as shown on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart. The OEX still appears to be trying to steady in a corrective move, however, perhaps a bear flag, so that it's possible that it could continue to rise within that corrective formation. Bears need to keep those profit-protecting measures in mind, according to the individual plans already devised. Bulls, I just don't see an opportunity here yet except for adept scalpers who don't need my advice. The OEX could shoot higher as it's done so many times in the past in a rejection of bearish setups, but I wouldn't want to base a bullish OEX options play on that possibility just now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:14:55 AM

Watch your VIX.X .... nice setup coming I think.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:14:34 AM

Dang that was close .... I still think we'll get QQQQ $37.41. Then get ready for a long.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:10:45 AM

VIX.X 12.61 -0.70% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.01, 12.35, Piv= 12.53, 12.87, 13.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 10:10:28 AM

The break of yesterday's QQQQ low has stopped the daily cycle upphase, which is now stalled on a bearish kiss. The rising support line on the 30 min chart cracked as well, but price bounced immediately higher. Nevertheless, the oscillators have taken another downtick in their trending move, with price continuing yesterday's sideways drift lower. Channel support is down to 37.40, resistance at 37.70. Below 37.60, QQQQ is bearish.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 10:09:22 AM

So far, the Keltner move above resistance is not holding, and the OEX's 10-minute 21-ema is holding as resistance. That formation still looks as if it might be a bear flag in the making, so I'm reserving judgment as of yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 10:04:18 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 10:03:51 AM

The OEX has produced a first 15-minute close above the Keltner line that's been holding it back as it tumbled. It's now testing the ten-minute 21-ema, with that another source of resistance, with that -ema at 578.64. Bears would like to see continued 10-minute closes beneath this level, but it may be time for a bigger retracement than we've had so far. It's too early to tell with just this minor retracement so far, but if that's a bear flag the OEX is forming, it's a wider one that it's been forming so far in its tumble lower this week, and that could mean a bigger retracement in the making. Until proven otherwise, it's a countertrend move, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 10:01:05 AM

Headlines:

9:59am U.S. DEC. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UNREVISED AT 0.4%

9:59am U.S. JAN. WHOLESALE INVENTORY-SALES RATIO RISES TO 1.15

9:59am U.S. JAN. WHOLESALE SALES UP 0.5%, 7-MONTH LOW

9:59am U.S. JAN WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 1.1% VS 0.6% EXPECTED

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:57:11 AM

The BIX continues to test the 200-sma, with the BIX off the day's high.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:56:09 AM

The TRAN has erased all of Monday's and Tuesday's gains and now test the 12/30 high or 3823.96, with the TRAN at 3824.71 as I type. Market bulls of any stripe want to see that breakout level hold as support now for the TRAN.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 9:54:01 AM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for the QQQQ $37.48 ... to $37.62.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 9:50:44 AM

The upward move in ten year notes continues, with ZN bonds down to 108 9/64 and TNX down 3.4 bps at 4.48%, a .75% move so far. QQQQ has reversed, breaking to a new low as I type with 10 minutes to go until the Wholesale Inventories data.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 9:49:12 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for Stillwater Mining (SWC) $11.85 -1.33%

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:48:07 AM

GE is slightly below its 50-sma as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:47:09 AM

Something to keep in mind today, at least for our multinationals, is news out of China last night that an economic number far exceeded expectations, alarming some who had hoped that China might have succeeded in achieving a soft landing. Talk about new rate hikes in China, meant to slow the economy, now arise again. The fear, of course, is that a hard landing might hurt global demand. See my first morning post for information on the economic number.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:42:12 AM

So far, first 15-minute Keltner resistance holds on the OEX, with that resistance at a Keltner line currently at 578.29. Bears want to see this first 15-minute close remain below this level, keeping alive the potential of a decline toward the next Keltner target at 575.40. Bears should continue to protect profits as that target is approached, if it is.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 9:39:56 AM

Day trade short alert .... short the QQQQ $37.59 here, stop $37.69, target $37.41.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:37:33 AM

The RLX climbs from 30-sma support, but remains below 50-sma resistance.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:36:40 AM

The TRAN completed a candlestick reversal signal known as an evening star yesterday. Today it continues lower from yesterday's close.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 9:36:30 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link with a short cycle upphase underway.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:35:04 AM

The BIX rises to test its 200-sma at 361.60, with the BIX currently at 361.67. Important test.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:31:54 AM

First Keltner resistance for the OEX is at 578.23, with the ten-minute 21-ema just above that, at 578.76. Bears would like each of those to hold on the appropriate time-period closes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 9:28:41 AM

Pre-market most actives .... ESLR $6.70 (unch), MCEL $2.95 +2.84%, DISH $28.40 -7.1%, ELN $8.29 +5.2%, MATK $58.10 -10.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2005 9:22:14 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.68 and set for program selling at $+3.08. (Today is rollover and all prices are based on the June contract)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 9:13:23 AM

Today's 9B treasury auction is the smallest of the week, following the 15B of 5-year notes auctioned yesterday and Tuesday's 24B in 4-week t-bills. Nonetheless, 48B is a lot of liquidity for the market to provide, which could continue to pressure yields higher and equities lower. Currently, however, ten year treasuries are hitting a session high with TNX down 2.3 bps at 4.491%.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 9:06:33 AM

The OEX ended yesterday by having touched the downside target originally set by its first 15-minute close. That first 15-minute close confirmed a downside breakout on the 15-minute Keltner charts. The Keltner chart has now reset that downside target to 575.54, but the OEX sometimes meets only the original target. Bears must be aware of the possibility that it might be time for a bounce, while bulls should remain aware of a potential continued slide down toward 575.50 before a bounce attempt might occur. Snapping a Fib retracement bracket on that new downside target shows that the Fib levels actually fit that that level better.

The drop has been a straight-down one, so it may be time soon for that retracement, either beginning near Wednesday's close or nearer that 575.50-ish level. Overnight futures activity (no diving as foreign bourses did) point to the possibility that indices might attempt to steady if not to bounce. The 15-minute Keltner chart shows first resistance near 578.40, next resistance from 580.83-581.15. Bears don't want to see the OEX climb much higher than 581.15-581.70.

The OEX's daily RSI and CCI have committed to a downward turn, although MACD has not yet, leaving open the possibility that this candlestick reversal completed this week might not carry too far. The OEX looks vulnerable to the 50-sma, a possibility echoed by a potential target not yet set up on the 30-minute nested Keltner charts, but those looking for a bounce-and-rollover entry certainly want bearish corroboration from some of the indicator indices as well as from internals. The BIX is one of the indicator indices to be watched. It closed below both the 200-sma and -ema after spending about nine days back above those averages. A strong bounce from those averages Thursday morning might prompt a bounce in other indices, perhaps offering a bounce-and-rollover bearish entry if conditions are right. A plunge beneath those averages might prompt more declines in the OEX and other indices.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 8:58:41 AM

Session high for June ZN bond futures at 108 9/16, with TNX going negative at 4.513%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 8:56:50 AM

The Fed has 7B in overnight repos and 9B in 14 day repos expiring today. The open market desk has just announced a 12B 14-day repo, leaving 4B to be dealt with in the short-term 10AM announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 8:49:41 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle oscillators were edging higher in either a weak corrective upphase or a bullish divergence. This ambiguity won't be resolved until a decisive high-volume move out of this range, but in the meantime, the rising support on the 30 min chart Link is holding this morning. A break below the 37.45 level would likely be the move QQQQ bears need to resolve the 30 min cycle to the downside. The last trendline support is at 37.28, but I'm guessing that the break of 37.45 would be a big blow for the bulls. To the upside, a break above keltner resistance at 37.75 will resolve the cycle upward. A move above yesterday's 37.90 high will get the next leg higher in the daily cycle upphase (which remains on a buy signal) underway.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 8:33:15 AM

QQQQ's up to a session high of 37.54 on the data, TNX up another 1.6 bps at 4.53%. April gold is up to a90 cent loss at 442, bouncing from a low of 440.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 8:31:15 AM

Headlines:

[08:30] U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 17,000 TO 327,000

[08:30] U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE JAN. 8

[08:30] U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 5,750 TO 312,500

[08:30] U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 39,000 TO 2.70 MLN.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/10/2005 7:19:59 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1210.5, NQ 1532, YM 10825 and QQQQ -.05 at 37.52. Gold is down 1.30 at 441.60, silver -.028 at 7.612, ten years notes -.125 at 108 51/64 and crude oil is lower by .375 at 54.40.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 310K, followed by wholesale inventories, est. .6% and at 2PM, the treasury budget, est. -98.5B.

Linda Piazza : 3/10/2005 7:20:42 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei gapped lower, attempted to regain the flat-line level, but fell heavily in the afternoon after a disappointing economic release. European markets started out weak, and currently trade in the red, too. Our futures flat-lined, attempted a bounce near the European open, but now trade back near the flat-line. As of 6:33 EST, gold was $441.60, and crude was $54.42, down from the $54.75 close. Forex markets have been active as the dollar weakened overnight against many currencies amid renewed speculation about forex reserve diversification in Japan and other countries, a weakness the dollar strives to undo this morning. Japan's Koizumi reportedly made some comments to the parliament about studying potential forex reserve diversification, comments which have since been qualified but which some speculate might have been deliberately floated to gauge the effect. Some also believe that South Korea might have been active in forex markets, acting to weaken the won against the dollar, muddling dollar action. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Thursday morning, the Bank of Japan released January's input/output price indices. Input prices decreased 0.3% over the previous month's, but rose 4.6% over the previous year's. Output prices dropped 0.3% over the previous month's, but increased 2.6% over the previous year's. The trade condition index fell 0.1%. The Nikkei gapped lower, with exporters and blue chips falling at least in part due to a rise in crude prices. The release of information from the Beige Book added to concerns about inflation that the rise in crude prices produced. Goldman Sachs raised its rating on the insurance industry to attractive, leading to gains in insurance stocks.

Near the end of the morning session and again at the beginning of the afternoon session, the Nikkei moved nearly to the flat-line level, but then it fell heavily late in the afternoon after the Cabinet Office released figures showing that January's core machinery orders dropped a seasonally adjusted 2.2% from the previous month's. Expectations had been for a rise of 3.0%. The Nikkei closed lower by 101.78 points or 0.85%, at 11,864.91.

Other Asian markets turned lower, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.33%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 1.00%. South Korea's central bank left its rates unchanged, with the central bank governor noting that the economy was in a gradual recovery, but that higher crude and other costs and a stronger currency could hurt the recovery. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.65%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.61%. China's export growth rose 37% in the last reporting period, with imports rising only 8.3%, creating a trade surplus for the period. This will fuel cries for the Chinese government to allow for a free-floating currencies, and speculation arises that the government will raise rates again. The Shanghai Composite dropped a hefty 2.32%.

European markets turned lower, too, hurt by yesterday's U.S. declines higher crude costs, fears of more rate hikes and dollar weakness. In London, miners turned lower. On continental Europe, auto manufacturers were among the exporters hurt. Retailer Carrefour disappointed, as did peer Delhaize Group, with both dropping. In other stock-specific news, Vivendi announced a dividend that investors found disappointing and slipped slightly lower in early trading. During a week in which one analyst firm touted luxury goods makers, French luxury group LVMH did not meet EBIT expectations, according to one firm, and was the subject of a harassing and anti-competitive practices complaint put before the Japanese Trade Commission by another luxury goods maker. Brokers were active in speaking about other European stocks, sometimes with mixed results. French bank Agricole received a downgrade from Morgan Stanley and an upgrade from JP Morgan. Lehman Brothers upgraded French hotels group Accor.

As of 6:41 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 25.40 points or 0.51%, to 4,970.70. The CAC 40 had fallen 21.26 points or 0.52%, to 4,045.43. The DAX had fallen 26.98 points or 0.62%, to 4,348.62.

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