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OI Technical Staff : 3/11/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 7:57:31 PM

Last Three Weeks Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 7:45:33 PM

Pivot Matrix for Monday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 6:47:01 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 6:38:02 PM

Closing Internals at this Link . At today's close the NYSE 10-day NH/NL ratio has reversed lower by 3-boxes and would suggest a lack of bullish leadership on both the short (5-day) and intermediate-term (10-day).

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 5:12:54 PM

QCharts users: Please note that the MMM April 90 Call symbol is indeed MNZ-DR. Even though it will show it as being the MO April 90 Call. This is same type of problem I was having yesterday on a grander scale. I "edited" this in the 04:55:39 MM Profile portfolio.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 4:55:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... Stopped out of the two (2) bullish swing trade calls in Forest Labs May $45 Calls (FHA-EI) at the bid of $0.45. ($-0.85, or -65.38%) Stopped out of the 1/2 bullish long in the QQQQ at $37.35. ($-0.16, or -0.43%). Tried to get short the QQQQ at $37.45, but didn't get the bounce. That order has been canceled. Bearish swing trade sold three (3) NAKED CALLS in the Dow Diamonds and the DIA March $108 Call (DIA-CD) at the bid of $0.75. Stop at $1.10, target is $0.10, or poof! This Week's Trade Blotter of CLOSED trades at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 4:01:51 PM

In the last few minutes, the OEX attempted an upside breakout above the 15-minute Keltner line that had been holding it back for days, but it could not maintain that upside breakout. Dialing to the 30-minute chart, I see that the 30-minute close also maintained a breakdown level, keeping alive the possibility of an eventual drop to 569.73. We'll see what happens Monday.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 3:51:41 PM

That dumping of big caps, mentioned by Marc in his 3:46 post on the Futures side, has been happening in Japan some over the last month, too, at least by domestic investors. In late February, though, I was reading that foreign investors were stepping and and taking up the slack. It will be interesting to see what happens with the GDP next week and with the Nikkei oh-so-close to 12,000. That number will be released Sunday night.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 3:47:02 PM

The BIX remains below its 200-sma and -ema as the close draws nearer. It's close enough to hit those averages again before the close, but the bulls need to get started soon.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 4:00:07 PM

As I look at preliminary WEEKLY Pivot levels, last weeks mentioning of buying DIA April $109 puts (DIA-PE) at $1.45 by Marc Eckelberry (3/04/05) with a target of $107 can be tied to next week's WEEKLY S1/MONTHLY Correlation. My profile of selling NAKED March $108 naked calls at $0.75, with STOP at $1.10 ($108 +1.10 = $109.10) might be just enough room to WEEKLY R1.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 3:43:48 PM

Those bears who want to exit by the close might opt to take their profits soon or else just ratchet down their stops closer and closer to the OEX's position. It's possible that the OEX will fall further after testing the 574-ish resistance just ahead, but certainly don't let a profit become considerably less profitable.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 3:41:23 PM

Depending on what happens in the last few minutes of trading, the TRAN may well end the week having printed a doji directly beneath the 38.2% envelope level displayed in my 11:10 post. The TRAN doesn't always follow a weekly doji with a reversal, of course. It didn't three and four weeks ago, when the TRAN was also printing doji on the weekly chart. Still, we've got an upper envelope level that usually marks a swing high, incipient bearish price/RSI divergence, and other such signs that point to the fact that the TRAN may well be near a major swing high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 3:38:34 PM

DIA $107.73 -0.68% ... should the DIA close at $107.67 next week's Pivot levels would be ... $106.23, $106.99, Piv = $108.41, $109.17, $110.59.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 3:37:51 PM

Volume remains relatively heavy with QQQQ still advancing off the low. Link Even without the close below 37.08, QQQQ's daily cycle is back on a sell signal after spending a week in a corrective upphase. The 30 min cycle is as ovesold as it's been in two weeks, but shows no sign of turning up- it will take a move back above 37.27 to generate an uptick in the 30 min channel, still pointed south.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 3:24:46 PM

KMart (KMRT) $128.06 +14% ... got close to BLUE #6 ($129.37). Still 26 minutes left in trade.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 3:24:36 PM

A thirty-minute close is coming up soon and it looks as if the OEX may maintain the breakout signal on the 30-minute chart, maintaining that potential 569.86 downside target. The OEX needs to maintain a 30-minute close beneath the Keltner lines currently at 574.22-575.00 to keep that potential target in mind. From this point on in the day, however, it's going to be more about who wants out the most, however: bulls or bears.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 3:18:28 PM

Bearish swing trade short cancel alert ... canceling order to short the QQQQ at $37.55 from 11:03:52. QQQQ $37.10 and just off session low of $37.02.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 3:15:03 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 3:08:00 PM

A close below yesterday's 37.08 QQQQ low after breaking yesterday's high this morning would result in a bearish engulfing / key outside reversal to finish the week. Volume has picked up on the test of 37 support.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 3:05:35 PM

The TRAN still won't give up. It's off its high of the day, of course, but hasn't breached yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 3:04:29 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 3:04:24 PM

Potential downside breakout on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart. I'm dialing up to the 30-minute now to watch for a new potential downside target. That 30-minute chart suggests a new downside target of 569.86 unless there's a 30-minute close above 574.21-574.97.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 3:02:27 PM

QQQQ update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 2:59:48 PM

Unless there's a new breakout on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channels, which obviously can and does happen, the OEX is approaching a possible bounce point. Keep in mind, too, that the 50-sma is at 571.00, so anywhere within the 571-573 zone might be the one point from which the OEX attempts a bounce. I said earlier in the week that the OEX looked vulnerable to the 50-sma, but if I'm thinking that the 50-sma might provide a bounce, so are others, and dip-buyers might take courage at and slightly ahead of that level. Continue your plans to protect bearish profits and be thinking about whether you want to carry those options positions over the weekend with opex next week. If you don't want to carry them over the weekend, then you might ratchet your stops down differently than you would if you want to stay in.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 2:54:37 PM

The OEX's downside target set by the 15-minute Keltner channel is at 572.88 now, but would be undone if the OEX began producing 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 575.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 2:54:33 PM

Volume and price are rising, QQQQ retesting the prior high on a sharp move off the lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 2:52:55 PM

QQQQ returns to the lows just above yesterday's lows after failing from 37.25, a lower high: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 2:48:33 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.56 -2.44% ... I sold ramaining position from May's bullish entry today. Will miss the monthly dividends at this point, but now look for entries near $9.00 and better "yields." Key indicators will be "banks crumble, Fed out of touch, etc. etc."

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 2:39:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 2:38:45 PM

So far, and I've been typing this for days now with a couple of brief exceptions, the first 15-minute Keltner resistance now at 575.25 continues to hold on 15-minute closes. The OEX produced a tweezer-bottom reversal signal, but bulls have not been able to deliver on the upside so far, which will embolden bears again soon. Bulls need to bounce it if it's going to bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 2:38:18 PM

No reprieve for ten year bonds heading into the cash close in 25 minutes, TNX up 7.6 bps at 4.535%, a 1.7% gain today. Link TNX looks to go out at the high for the week and an 8 month high.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 2:32:11 PM

The TRAN has still not confirmed its H&S on its daily chart, but it's hung around the right-shoulder level so long that I think we can consider the formation invalidated.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 2:23:41 PM

First failure below the prior range support for QQQQ Link . A higher low above the session low will kick off a new short cycle upphase trying to form.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 2:39:13 PM

The OEX's 30-dma has been providing support today. That's at 574.82, with the OEX currently at 574.90. I commented a few days ago that this average has had some relevance to the OEX's behavior over the last couple of months, so that this could be a bounce zone. So far, it's been only a steadying one. Daily CCI makes a tentative move through the zero line, MACD makes a tentative bearish cross from above signal. These are tentative enough as yet that they can be erased, so bulls need to make a concerted effort to do so, bouncing the OEX from this average.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 2:12:08 PM

The 15-minute Keltner resistance line that has been turning the OEX lower today is currently at 575.51. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath that line. The current 15-minute period may be printing a tweezer-bottom reversal signal, though, so bears should be careful. Continue with prepared plans to protect profits.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 2:12:07 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.06 -0.37% ... componets sorted by price snapshot at this Link where traders can compare to our "Max Pain" benchmark from 03/02/05 at this Link and begin analysis/observation of how stocks are acting relative to March "Max Pain" levels.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 2:08:08 PM

The CRB is now up 2.96 to 318.11, crude oil +1.26% at 54.225, gold up .68% at 446.40 and TNX +7.9 bps at 4.538%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 2:05:34 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 2:03:56 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:57:51 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $19.98 -3.05% ... least-weighted stock, but percentage loser in the DIA/INDU.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 1:56:42 PM

Session low for ten year bonds at 108 11/16, TNX now up 7.8 bps at 4.357%, a 1.84% gain today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:56:37 PM

3M (MMM) $85.94 -0.81% ... fourth-most heavily weighted stock in the INDU/DIA.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 1:56:20 PM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel now sets up a potential downside target of 573.23, if the current 15-minute period closes below the Keltner line currently at 574.96.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 1:55:55 PM

Yesterday's low just held for QQQQ. But it's going to take real buying to break back above the overhang at 37.27. Volume is thinning on the bounce off the lows.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:55:53 PM

IBM (IBM) $91.38 -1.11% ... third-most heavily weighted stock in the INDU/DIA

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:54:09 PM

DIA $108.05 ... another test of WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:53:32 PM

VIX.X 12.62 +1.04% ... session high. Back above WEEKLY Pivot and challenging DAILY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 1:51:52 PM

BIX did move below 360, is slightly above it as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 1:49:00 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 1:46:21 PM

Support at 37.15 is next, but the short cycle has rolled over from its weak upphase, and a failure to bounce immediately will mean a 30 min channel rollover as well- stronger support is at 36.95-37.00 QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 1:45:58 PM

The OEX presses deeper in to 15-minute Keltner support. If it can't break through (attempting as I type), then this could springboard it higher.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:44:04 PM

Should be filled at $0.80 on the three NAKED DIA $108 Calls (DIA-CD). I'm still showing bid of $0.75 though, so will reflect that as entry in my MM profiles.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 1:38:27 PM

The BIX still isn't back above the 200-sma and -ema, but still challenges them. I've got an alarm set for BIX 359.99 to let me know if the BIX starts dropping below the week's low and the round-number support, confirming the drop below the 200-sma and -ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:36:31 PM

MCI Inc. (MCIP) $23.93 +0.84% ... NASDAQ-100 component jumping after Qwest (Q) $3.93 +2.34% sweetens its bid.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 1:29:57 PM

The distance between Keltner support and Keltner resistance narrows on the OEX's 15-minute chart. Time for a breakout soon? If so, it will be coming near or during one prime stop-running time of day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:29:45 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:24:26 PM

Bearish swing trade sell naked call alert ... Selling three (3) of the Dow Diamonds DIA Mar $108 Calls (DIA-CD) at the bid of $0.75. Stop goes at $1.10. DIA $108.25 here.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 1:20:12 PM

On the five-minute chart, that TRAN potential H&S doesn't look as if it's been invalidated yet. Looks a little more distorted on the 15-minute chart, which is the opposite of the way these usually work out. It looks as if bulls tried running it up beyond the right-shoulder level, but couldn't follow through. It needs to round down soon or else it's going to look invalidated not on the basis of the height to which the TRAN rose but on the length of time it takes the shoulder to form.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 1:15:37 PM

Very weak short cycle upphase so far for QQQQ. Price is net unchanged for the past 2 hours+. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 1:06:35 PM

The CRB is now up 2.31 to 317.46, with cocoa, soybeans and heating oil futures in the top 3. Crude is up 1.49% at 54.35. It's been an amazing move for the CRB above 290. 18 year monthly chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 1:04:22 PM

So far, the OEX 15-minute Keltner resistance at a line currently at 576.39 continues to hold on 15-minute closes. The support that had been trying to firm now shows the slightest signs of softening. That support now ranges from 575.24-575.59.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 1:03:48 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 12:59:29 PM

Bonds remain weak, with virtually no change for ten year yields, TNX up 6.2 bps at 4.521%. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 12:53:29 PM

QQQQ rises here to test the 37.38-.40 line again. The short cycle is in an upphase here, so far entirely sideways and corrective. A break above 37.40 will be the first step toward changing that. 30 min resistance remains 37.45, and a break above that is necessary to turn the 30 min cycle up. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 12:52:16 PM

VIX.X 12.37 -0.96% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:51:02 PM

The BIX rises to test its 200-sma again, and is just below it as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:50:10 PM

The TRAN moved a little higher than the ideal right-shoulder level for its H&S and may be headed higher still. This thing just won't give up.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 12:51:36 PM

IBM (IBM) $91.60 -0.87% Link ... softening up at important horizontal support. Oct. $90 Put (IBM-VR) $2.95 is active at 3,000:413.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:45:44 PM

This morning on CNBC, a discussion of the volatility indices reminded me of something that Jeff said either toward the end of last year or the beginning of this year. A host and commentator on CNBC were discussing the complacency apparently indicated by the low levels in the volatility indices, but the guest was making the point that this appended to the indices only, that some individual stocks had been big movers in both directions and that traders certainly had not displayed complacency in those moves. Sometime either late last year or early this year, Jeff had commented--hope I'm getting this right as I don't want to put words in anyone's mouth--that it might be a time to be looking at individual stock plays rather than index plays because there might be some choppiness in indices but more trending moves in individual stocks. Seems Jeff's comment was prophetic, although we have seen a fun move or two on the indices along the way. Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 12:34:38 PM

QQQQ $37.34 -0.47% ....

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:33:34 PM

Is the OEX just widening its bear flag, preparing for a higher climb? That's a possibility that should be kept in mind. So far, first 15-minute Keltner resistance holds, but it's being tested as I type, with perhaps stronger resistance just above that, at 577.44-577.75. Those Fib levels to keep in mind are the 38.2% retracement of this week's plummet at 579.45 and the 50% at 580.87.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 12:32:53 PM

KMart (KMRT) $123.00 +9.72% .. presses highs of the session.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 12:31:09 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 12:22:43 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:21:54 PM

On the 15-minute Keltner chart for the OEX, nearest Keltner support is just below the OEX, down to 575.31, while nearest resistance is just above, too, at 576.55. Resistance that looks a bit firmer gathers from 577.46-577.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 12:20:08 PM

The short cycle is ticking up as QQQQ drifts sideways above horizontal support. The declining 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 37.33, but the stall in the 30 min channel downphase is just that- a stall. QQQQ neds to break 37.45 to turn it up and kick off an upphase, and so far the bounces have been failing below 37.40.

Tab Gilles : 3/11/2005 12:15:43 PM

$GOX, NEM, FCX Link Link Link Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:15:26 PM

The Russell 2000 tries to steady at the 50-dma after failing to push above the 30-dma. The 50 is at 627.30 with the RUT at 626.98 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:13:26 PM

The BIX attempts to steady just above the 360 level, ahead of a confirmation of a new H&S on its 60-minute chart, with a neckline at about 360.40. I'd certainly wait for a move below 360 before I considered it confirmed and then those using the BIX as a gauge for market strength or weakness will want to watch the late-February 355.41 low for a potential BIX bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 12:13:04 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:10:15 PM

The TRAN flattens in the appropriate right-shoulder area, but doesn't really turn down. It's got potential Keltner support on the 15-minute chart just below its current 3831.77 level.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 12:08:01 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:01:06 PM

Next week, important economic events outside the U.S. include, among others, Japan's flash GDP on Monday and the OPEC meeting on Wednesday.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 12:01:00 PM

Nymex crude is up 1.03% here at 54.10, off a low of 52.50. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 12:00:13 PM

I'm not familiar with the ECRI U.S. weekly economic gauge, but one source reports a rise of 0.2% for the week ending March 4 with a smoothed annualized gain of 3.00%, the sixth straight week of smoothed gains. The director of research believes that the index reveals a gradually improving economic outlook for the U.S., with the U.S. likely to sustain its ability to support global growth.

Jane Fox : 3/11/2005 11:53:57 AM

Looking forward to the article Linda (11:50 post). That is a subject not many address.

Mark Davis : 3/11/2005 11:53:21 AM

That's OK Linda... our high opinion of you was not "effected" one bit (grin)

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 11:53:04 AM

The TRAN is now at a right-shoulder area for a H&S on its 15-minute chart. A move much above 3842 will invalidate the formation unless the move is quickly slapped down. The TRAN is at 3836.40 and moving higher as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 11:56:57 AM

Laughing. Maybe I'd better not be writing articles if I'm referring to a newsletter "addition" rather than "edition." Blame it on several eight-hour driving days and very little sleep. My previous post has been corrected.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 11:50:39 AM

My Traders Corner article for this weekend's newsletter edition deals with arithmetic versus semi-log charts. Take a look at the article for a new perspective on the TRAN's climb and the homebuilders. Those look completely different on a semi-log chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 11:42:17 AM

Volume is running heavier today, with 50.3M QQQQs traded so far, but has dropped sharply on the retest of the session low. If that breaks, 37.15 will be trendline, confluence and channel support. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/11/2005 11:41:59 AM

Jeff, DOW chemical up, commodities up, yields up: bad news.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 11:40:31 AM

So far, nearest 15-minute Keltner resistance, now near 576.92, continues to hold on 15-minute closes. So does the support from 575.37-575.68, and that support may be firming up just a bit. It's a standoff for now.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 11:38:40 AM

Bonds continue to chop sideways, just off the lows with ZN futures down .39 at 108 53/64. TNX is up 5.6 bps at 4.515%. Yesterday's high was tested this morning but held. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 11:37:56 AM

Dow Chemical (DOW) $55.00 +0.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 11:37:11 AM

Hercules (HPC) $14.82 -1.65% ... has pulled right back to where it erupted to the upside from on Wednesday. Stock has been less than "herculean" since 1/2 bullish profile on Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 11:33:28 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 421.94 -1.92% ... testing yesterday's low for second time intra-day.

Tab Gilles : 3/11/2005 11:32:04 AM

NY Spot GOLD 11:28AM BID/445.80. ASK/ 446.30, +3.70 +0.84%, Low/440.40, High/447.30

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 11:26:46 AM

The BIX is currently below both the 200-sma and 200-ema on its daily chart, trying to bounce from a descending supporting trendline that had been the neckline for its H&S. The BIX broke through that neckline late last month and then bounced back above it into another right shoulder. Bears want to see follow-through to the downside; bulls, another bounce here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 11:22:54 AM

Gold and silver have been rising, with April gold up to a 3.5 gain at 446.90, silver +.062 at 7.59 and HUI up 1.38 to 224.04. Crude oil is up .51% to 53.825.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 11:20:12 AM

7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 37.45, with the declining upper channel band down to 37.55 QQQQ. 37.37-.40 is confluence. The short cycle bulls need to clear .40 in order to kick off the overdue short cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 11:17:57 AM

The OEX is still trying to steady at 15-minute Keltner support. Bears want a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 577.03 or at least below the ones converging near 578.28.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 11:16:33 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/11/2005 11:15:28 AM

GLD Link EUR/USD Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 11:10:32 AM

The TRAN's weekly chart with a 38.2% envelope surrounding the 200-week ema: Link By both weekly and monthly measures, the TRAN is overbought. I've been saying this for several weeks now, so this is absolutely not a market-timing tool, but certainly something that should be watched.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 11:07:12 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 11:06:16 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 11:03:52 AM

Bearish swing trade short alert setup ... for the QQQQ ... go short on a bounce back to/near $37.55, stop $38.05, target $37.01

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 11:02:01 AM

The OEX pauses just above next Keltner support on the 15-minute chart with that support at 575.49 and the OEX punching down to 595.78 before pausing. Resistance lines have thinned out now, but bears would most like to maintain 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 577.28.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 11:01:00 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for the QQQQ $37.35.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 11:00:00 AM

Next 15-minute Keltner support is at 575.49, but slopes downward, so the OEX can slide along it. Next support below that is 573.53.

Darn. Wish internals had given traders more corroboration this morning. The setup was classic, with a move up to the 38.2% retracement with strong Keltner resistance there, but the move up was not so clearly corrective as to ignore the internals or the then-climbing TRAN. There will always be another play, however, and I hope some of you jumped on despite my hesitation about the internals. Watch those support levels below, having profit-protecting plans in mind.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:57:09 AM

Big move up in the VIX. Watch to see if it's sustained.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:52:51 AM

QQQQ has returned to the session lows and undow the bullish divergences. The short cycle oscillators remain deeply oversold, but failing a bounce immediately, they will begin a trending move as the 30 min cycle works its way lower. Channel support is down to 37.38 here.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:50:27 AM

As others have commented today and as I have earlier, the lack of SOX follow-through on Asian and European overnight strength is disturbing to bullish hopes. The SOX has a prolonged consolidation zone, so today's downturn just takes it back into that zone again, but it's disturbing nonetheless. Just wish internals were giving a clearer sign. They're more in tune with the idea of consolidation than of a strong move one direction or the other, aren't they? I just have the feeling today that equity movements might move the internals rather than the other way around, but I'm certainly keeping an eye on the direction of the advdec line.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:49:29 AM

On a phone call- back shortly.

Tab Gilles : 3/11/2005 10:46:33 AM

Just to reiterate the potential for energy price driven inflation, and the forecast from the IEA, who predicted that Chinese demand for oil was set to rise by 22% in the coming year. While the IEA Chinese oil demand growth rate, falls short of the 33% Chinese demand growth rate predicted by the US EIA, it is clear that oil supplies are set to remain tight for at least the coming 9 months and that should keep the cost push inflation issue in position. The International Energy Agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report that estimated demand growth this year has been revised up by 290,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.81 million bpd, taking annual global consumption to 84.3 million bpd.The IEA has revised its estimate for 2005 world demand growth up by 500,000 bpd in the last three months, as synchronous growth in the Chinese and U.S. economies proves more resilient than expected to the impact of higher energy costs. OPEC oil producers are keeping a close watch over rising stocks in developed countries ahead of the usual second-quarter slowdown, when temperatures warm up. OPEC is keen to prevent a rise in world stocks. Link... Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 10:43:32 AM

Genesco (GCO) $29.86 +0.50%

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 10:43:09 AM

Nike (NKE) $87.27 +0.66% ....

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:43:05 AM

No, the OEX did bounce from its neckline area into a possible right shoulder, despite the lack of 15-minute Keltner support just there. The right shoulder area is about about 578.50-579, with the OEX facing Keltner resistance on a 15-minute closing basis at both 577.86 and 578.37. Remember that H&S's can be and are rejected.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 10:42:10 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.73 -0.27% ... still under $15.00

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:41:06 AM

100 tick QQQQ chart at this Link . While the 30 min channel has turned down, volume is lighter than it was during the first hour, and there are small bullish divergences in the oversold short cycle oscillators.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 10:41:33 AM

Reebok (RBK) $46.08 +1.94% ... making its move. New 52-weeker.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:38:42 AM

The OEX is now at the neckline area for a potential H&S on its 15-minute chart, with a right-shoulder still to be formed. I don't see 15-minute Keltner support just here, though, so it's possible that the OEX could drift lower, down to 575.75-576.45, before attempting a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:37:29 AM

The TRAN tests a descending trendline off yesterday's low, with that descending trendline at about 3820.00 and the TRAN now at 3822.88.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:34:55 AM

Bonds remain weak, TNX up 5.6 bps here at 4.515%, a 1.26% increase today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 10:33:21 AM

QQQQ $37.62 +0.26% ... updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:33:09 AM

Potential H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, with the neckline at about 577.00, with a right shoulder still to be formed.

Tab Gilles : 3/11/2005 10:28:40 AM

GOLD 10:26AM, BID/443.80, ASK/444.30, +1.70 +0.38%, Low/440.40, High/445.20

Tab Gilles : 3/11/2005 10:25:13 AM

Sears (S) 3 year chart. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:22:42 AM

Volume surged on the drop and is declining on the bounce. The rising trendline broke for about 1 minute but it looks like just a throwunder. The bounce needs to clear 37.65 here to rule out the "deadcat" interpretation.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:21:24 AM

No follow-through yet on the downside bear flag break on the OEX. I'm uncertain about the downside, although the breakdown looked classic, due to the internals, although the advdec line has turned down, too. So has the TRAN.

Jane Fox : 3/11/2005 10:19:16 AM

Dateline CNN Manhunt on for gunman after shootings at county courthouse in Atlanta, Georgia, police say.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:18:43 AM

Breakdown out of what looks like a bear flag on the OEX, from the 38.2% retracement. Fifteen-minute Keltner support at 575.74 and then 573.75.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 10:18:08 AM

QQQQ $37.55 +0.07% ... DAILY R1 has been formidable resistance and now setting up for a test of DAILY Pivot. It will take EVERY ounce of buying in early light volume to get my bullish target.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:16:13 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 10:14:53 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:13:11 AM

QQQQ is testing the rising 7200 tick SMA again, now at 37.63. The 30 and 60 min channels still point north, with 30 min channel resistance now up to 37.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:12:11 AM

Another big day for the agriculturals, which are drilling the CRB up to new multidecade highs, currently +.74 at 315.89. Cocoa, sugar, cotton, corn and soybeans are leading the charge. US Dollar Index chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:09:50 AM

The OEX also tests the 10-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages at 579.54 and 579.13. I wish internals were more bearish, because a test of the 38.2% retracement of the decline with firm-looking Keltner resistance just ahead would look like a possible area to wait for an OEX rollover for a new bearish entry, but those internals are not bearish and the TRAN still climbs. So far. There's just not enough corroboration for me to feel good about recommending that someone jump in on the hopes of a rollover at a technically important area.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 10:05:39 AM

VIX.X 12.18 -2.4% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.09, 12.31, Piv= 12.64, 12.86, 13.19.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:04:30 AM

This morning's OEX move to the HOD perhaps confirmed or else tested the neckline of the inverse H&S seen on its 15-minute chart, depending on how you draw that neckline. Whatever it was, the OEX immediately dropped back. OEX bulls are perhaps going to try again, but Keltners suggest that investors better put their shoulders behind the test, because there's firm Keltner-based resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:04:17 AM

Despite the surge in old, up .38% at 445.10 here from a morning low of 441.60, HUI is up just 6 cents at 222.72. Nymex crude is holding a .98% loss at 53.025.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 10:02:24 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 10:01:23 AM

Here's what the 30-minute Keltner charts suggest about the current OEX test of resistance: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 10:00:08 AM

A 7B overnight repo has just been announced by the Fed's Open Market Desk, to replace the 10B expiring from yesterday, for a net drain of 3B.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 9:56:05 AM

Like Keene on the Futures side, I'm having difficulties with QCharts this morning. Changing servers isn't helping so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 9:55:04 AM

Session high for gold, QQQQ and equity futures across the board. 30 min cycle resistance is up to 37.80 and being tested as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 9:48:23 AM

Swing trade bullish call stop alert on the two (2) Forest Labs FRX May $45 Calls (FHA-EI) at the bid of $0.45. FRX $40.21

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 9:46:25 AM

The TRAN is pushing higher this morning, at 3842.58 as I type. Market bears don't want to see it break out above the Tuesday intraday high of 3889.84.

Jeff Bailey : 3/11/2005 9:46:20 AM

Program Tradeing Levels for Friday .... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $5.90 and set for program selling at $3.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 9:45:44 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 9:43:22 AM

Dialing down to a three-minute nested Keltner chart for the OEX, a time frame that often works well in early trading, I see that this chart shows the channels aligned around the central average, in an equilibrium position. These are sometimes formed prior to a breakout one direction or the other, and produce either a tight rectangular trading range or else a narrowing, triangular range. Right now, the range looks to be from about 576.87 to 578.56, with the understanding that these lines are dynamic and will shift a little with each jot up and down by prices.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 9:39:13 AM

You've seen this monthly chart of the TRAN before, with a 38.2% envelope surrounding the monthly 200-ema, and with that envelope usually marking major swing highs and lows in the TRAN. Bearing in mind that the month is far from finished, here's the monthly chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 9:37:28 AM

QQQQ breaks neckline support here, at a session low of 37.55 and targeting the rising 7200 tick SMA at 37.50 below which the 30 min cycle upphase will stall.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 9:36:56 AM

The RLX turns down slightly below its 50-sma. The RLX has spent the last week trying to maintain closes above this MA, without much success.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 9:36:14 AM

The BIX is slightly positive, but not yet above yesterday's HOD.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 9:34:50 AM

Despite the climbs in Asian and European semi-related socks, the SOX isn't making much headway, already slightly off its HOD, which wasn't yet much of a HOD itself.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 9:32:53 AM

No OEX push above the 38.2% retracement of the decline yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 9:28:19 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link . Bears want to see 37.59 broken for starters, and below 37.50, the 30 min cycle will turn down. Until then, however, both the 30 and 60 min channels continue to point north. QQQQ is holding a 15 cent gain here at 37.67.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 8:56:13 AM

Session lows across the board for equities, bonds and CAD futures. QQQQ is down to a 7 cent gain at 37.59, testing yesterday's reverse h&s neckline from above.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 8:52:55 AM

Ten year treasuries are back to the lows, June ZN futures -.37% to 108 13/16, with TNX up 6.5 bps to 4.524%. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 8:52:26 AM

Thursday, the OEX fell to the downside target suggested by the 15-minute nested Keltner channels, with that target also offering support. That support was backed by the 30-dma's support, and the OEX did bounce. Market bulls and bears alike were studying both the shape of the bounce and the height of the bounce to see if it qualified as a distribution form such as a bear flag. Height is easy to address: So far, the OEX has retraced less than 38.2% of the plummet off Monday's high. The 38.2% retracement is at about 579.45 and the 50% retracement is at about 580.87. Bears want the OEX to turn down again before retracing much higher than 580.80-581.00.

The shape is a little more difficult. At first flag-like, the OEX then rose higher and dropped into a potential right shoulder for an inverse H&S formation. That formation has not been confirmed, but if it is, it would have an upside target somewhere near 582.75. Because it may be a countertrend movement, bulls should be willing to take profit earlier than that upside target in case of a downturn that comes sooner, but I think bulls are on risky ground anyway. Despite that potential inverse H&S and upside target, I wouldn't recommend a bullish play because of the steepness of the descent this week and because the play is possibly a countertrend one. Countertrend rallies can be sudden and can carry far, but they're unpredictable. Those not already in bearish positions should probably stand aside, too, until a new entry offers itself. A bounce and rollover from one of those Fib levels mentioned above would be ideal, and the 30-minute Keltner chart certainly suggests that the 38.2% level may be strong enough to stop OEX advances, at least as they're configured now. Three channel lines converge around that 38.2% level. Those already in bearish positions had lots of warning to make profit-protecting plans for the area of yesterday's low, as Keltners gave warning of where that support might be, so adhere to those plans if already in bearish plays.

Nearest support is at 576.25. On 30-minute closes beneath that level, the OEX sets up a potential downside target of 570.76. On 30-minute closes above 579.66, the OEX sets up a potential upside target of 583.20, just above that predicted by the inverse H&S. Watch internals. Watch some of the indicator indices such as the TRAN (having confirmed a bearish reversal signal on its daily chart), the BIX (bouncing slightly from its converging 200-sma and -ema's) and the SOX (bouncing more strongly than some other indices to close about $0.90 above its 200-week sma).

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 8:45:22 AM

Euros broke 1.35 briefly but have pulled back to 1.3496. The US Dollar Index got sold to the 81.25 level and is trying to bounce from there: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 8:37:05 AM

Euro futures are up .17% 1.3489, CAD futrues lower by .08% to .831. Gold and silver have edged fractionally green, April gold rising to a session high at 444.80 from a higher low of 441.60. Overall, however, the markets are greeting the trade data with a yawn. TNX has pulled back to its opening levels, +3.6 bps at 4.493% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 8:31:43 AM

Ten year notes are weak, giving back yesterday's gains with the yield (TNX) up 4.5 bps to 4.503%. QQQQ is down to a 17 cent gain at 37.69.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 8:30:50 AM

Headlines:

8:29am U.S. JAN CAPITAL GOODS EXPORTS FALL 0.7%

8:29am U.S. JAN. CAPITAL GOODS IMPORTS UP 1.7%

8:29am U.S. JAN. CONSUMER GOODS IMPORTS UP 6%

8:29am U.S. IMPORTS FROM CHINA UP 27% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:29am U.S. JAN. EXPORTS UP 0.4% TO RECORD $100.8B

8:29am U.S. JAN. IMPORTS UP 1.9% TO RECORD $159.1B

8:29am U.S. JAN. TRADE GAP EXCEEDS $56.5B EXPECTATIONS

8:29am U.S. JAN. TRADE GAP WIDENS 4.5% TO $58.3B

Jonathan Levinson : 3/11/2005 7:45:16 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1216.5, NQ 1543, YM 10894 and QQQQ +.22 at 37.74. April gold is down .90 at 442.50, May silver -.066 at 7.462, ten year notes down .1094 at 109 7/64 and crude oil is down .55 at 53.

We await the 8:30 release of the January trade balance, est. -56.8B.

Linda Piazza : 3/11/2005 7:11:12 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted a gain Friday morning. Most other Asian markets climbed, and most European markets currently trade in the green. Our futures did some zigging and zagging during the overnight session, but currently show gains. As of 7:00 EST, gold was down $1.00, and crude, down $0.54.

Part of the reason for the zig-zagging movements of futures overnight might have been due to developments in the forex markets. Just about all big-wigs on the global economic scene have jumped into the fray created Wednesday night when Japan's Prime Minister Koizumi suggested that Japan study diversification of its currency reserves. Last night's developments included Greenspan speaking about the deficit, among other things, saying that dollar weakness would help correct the external imbalance. The Fed's Bernanke echoed that sentiment saying that the dollar's decline ameliorated the impact of the trade gap. An Indian official jumped into the fray, saying that India, with the world's sixth largest reserves, would discuss diversification of their forex reserves.

Also of interest this morning across the globe is the OECD's Leading Indicator for January and for the more reliable six-month rate of change. That indicator improved from January's number, with the U.S. indicator climbing to 103.2 from the previous 102.6, but with the eurozone and U.K. dropping and Japan steadying. Within the eurozone, Germany stabilized. The six-month figure showed improvement in the U.S., with the pattern of gains and losses the same as in the January number. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei charged back above 11,950 in early trading Friday morning, with techs helped by Intel's forecast. Chip-related stocks such as Advantest gained. The Nikkei flat-lined near the day's high the rest of the day, but in the last few minutes, a bout of selling took it below the most-of-the-day range. The Nikkei still closed higher by 58.98 points or 0.50%, at 11,923.89, still short of the illusive 12,000. Oil-related issues declined. The February Consumption Tendency Survey showed a 2.0% rise month-over-month to 47.6. Improvements appeared in employment and living style components. This number was deemed a disappointment.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but most of the ones typically watched in this report climbed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.19%, and South Korea's Kospi soared 2.42% higher with Samsung Electronics and Hynix Semiconductor gaining 3.9% and 3.7%, respectively. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.04%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.25%. According to Lehman Brothers, last year China reportedly diversified its currency reserves, trimming its holdings of dollars in favor of euros. The Shanghai Composite climbed 0.29%.

Most European markets climb, with gains in chip-related stocks responsible for some of the gains on continental Europe. A pullback in crude prices also helped carmakers and airliners. In the U.K., speculation that Whitbread might sell the U.K. Marriott's sent that stock sharply higher in early trading. In France, the trade deficit declined. Germany's final CPI for February verified the 0.4% increase month-over-month and 1.8% increase year-over-year, pegging the increase mostly on seasonal factors. Those included energy costs with heating oil having increased. The head of the influential IFO said that Germany's growth will place it in the bottom tier among eurozone countries. The IFO did not lower its previous 1.2% estimate for growth although some other institutions are doing so.

In stock-specific news, GS sent Air France's stock lower after early gains, downgrading the stock to an under-perform rating. Retailer Carrefour received upgrades from Merrill Lynch and J.P. Morgan, with the retailer also benefiting from its decision to pull out of Japan. French defense group Thales SA declined when its earnings report disappointed. The company also announced plans to protect itself from currency fluctuations, particularly dollar weakness.

As of 7:08 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 25.80 points or 0.52%, to 4,987.90. The CAC 40 had climbed 23.94 points or 0.59%, to 4,062.15. The DAX had gained 31.21 points or 0.72%, to trade at 4,368.89.

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