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Tab Gilles : 3/16/2005 12:04:08 AM

$NDX Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/15/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 6:25:18 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 6:08:18 PM

I like your thinking James Cramer .... JPM $36.74 (Ebber's decision boding well for JPM and lawsuit against company that it pumped WCOM stock to its clients).

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 5:52:52 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 4:47:53 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity .... Day traded long shares of Genentech (DNA) at $58.13, but was stopped at $57.00. ($-1.13, or -1.94%) Swing traded long the QQQQ at $37.18, but was stopped at $37.05. ($-0.13, or -0.35%) Swing trade short shares of Merck (MRK) at $38.00, stop $32.60, targeting $29.20. (May look to sell puts against this position in future sessions).

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 4:37:56 PM

Swing trade NAKED Call lower stop alert ... will lower stop for the three (3) Dow Diamonds DIA Mar. $108 Calls (DIA-CD) to $0.70 from $1.10.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 4:05:30 PM

Most actives may be telling .... QQQQ $37.03 -0.83% which has been little-changed week-to-week (decent intra-day swings), then the smaller, more speculative names where percentage moves may be found have CMGI $2.26 +24.86%, TIVO $6.70 +74.93%, JDSU $1.86 -2.61% among the top 5. MSFT $24.91 -0.79% was #2.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 3:58:19 PM

It's about the time of day to decide whether to hold overnight or not. The most conservative short-term OEX bears might have already exited at least partial positions, as I suggested doing early. The OEX looks to be finishing the day at or near the LOD, depending on what happens in the last few minutes, but it's settling right on 15-minute Keltner support, too. Without a plunge through that support in the last few minutes, the OEX might try to bounce tomorrow. Some elements of Keltner-style bullish divergence continue. On both the 15-minute and 60-minute Keltner channels, however, the OEX's smallest channel remains pointed downward, without the channels yet producing a breakdown signal and resetting the downside target. The OEX is ending the day near Friday's low, too, another reason that a bounce might be attempted tomorrow morning. If the OEX plunges in the last few minutes, the bounce might be up to test the 572 level. If not, the bounce might be up to 573.44 or perhaps even 574.54, next levels of resistance on the 15-minute chart, or even 576.38-576.71, next resistance on the 60-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 3:57:29 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.60 -0.49% ... Most active March options to the close are... Mar $109 C (1,429:9,218), Mar $108 P (677:17,273), Mar $108 C (582:10,979). I'd have thought the $108 calls see a lot more action than this with DIA back below $108, if thinking from the retail long side.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 3:53:08 PM

QQQQ update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 3:49:23 PM

New lows for ES and YM futures, with QQQQ stalled at 37.03.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 3:42:10 PM

The 30 and 60 min cycle downphases in progress since this morning continue for QQQQ, and have turned the daily cycle down as well. The daily cycle remains ambiguous in the middle of its range, but for now it points south, as do the 30 and 60 min oscillators. Unfortunately for bears, much of this downphase has been sideways and on light volume, and the inability of bears to break the 37.00 level is a bullish sign. Currently, 30 and 60 min channel support is down at 36.90, resistance also overlapping at 37.20. A break of either level should prove directional, and the middle of the range should continue to be choppy and directionless.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 3:38:16 PM

The daily 100/130-ema's are coming into play for several indices lately. Here's the RLX: Link Note the way the CCI has begun chopping back and forth across the zero line? That's typical of choppy trading pattern and the zero line crosses have less relevance in this kind of trading pattern. The RLX appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle, and perhaps that's what should be watched. The retailers are sometimes important to market sentiment and market health and should probably be included in your routine scans of the markets.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 3:34:07 PM

The advdec line still continues lower, but it's not plunging as it did earlier. Small comfort for bulls just yet.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 3:31:36 PM

The SOX still balances on its daily 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 3:26:31 PM

Fifteen-minute Keltner support is still trying to firm at 572.40, but it's still unclear if it will hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 3:25:32 PM

QQQQ continues its sideways drift, with yesterday's light volume of 71.6M shares already exceeded at 78.2M shares, but the average of 92.8M still looks like a long way away. QQQQ is net unchanged and in a 15 cent range since 11:45AM. This is directionless, op-ex tractor beam trading. A break of the upper or lower band should provide direction, but the upside maximum pain targets add another layer of complexity.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 3:15:23 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 3:13:35 PM

CMGI (CMGI) $2.22 +22.65% ... presses high of the sessioin. Some pickup in volume here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 3:10:43 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 3:07:49 PM

The cash bond market is closed, TNX +2.6 bps at 4.542%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 3:02:19 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 3:00:58 PM

The little breakdown bounced at 37 QQQQ, then the little breakout failed at 37.12. The old 37.00-37.15 rectangle continues to apply. This has the unreal feeling of op-ex week action. While it feels very bearish to me, the proximity of the upside maximum pain levels for QQQQ and OEX might bave something to do with the persistence of support here.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 3:00:39 PM

The OEX is pushing up through that Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart before it has converged and firmed. However, the OEX appears to be struggling with the first single line of Keltner resistance it's facing, at 574.15 (15-minute closing basis). This happens when markets are weak and is what bears would like to see. Support also trying to firm near 572.50, but it's unclear yet whether it can hold. Bears should be protecting profits, however.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 2:58:28 PM

The advdec line has been telling the tale all day today, plunging, steadying and attempting a climb, and plunging again. It's attempting a climb right now.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 2:53:04 PM

Art Cashin sounds somewhat somber, doesn't he?

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 2:50:33 PM

The SOX with relationship to the daily 100/130-ema's: Link Note the potential inverse H&S with shoulders on this average, but note also that the CCI does not show the least propensity to turn higher again as yet. Mixed evidence, except to show that the SOX is at an important level.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 2:46:31 PM

A slow-motion break of the rising support line for QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 2:45:47 PM

Crude still at $55.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 2:43:43 PM



Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 2:43:21 PM

If Keltner style bullish divergence is going to continue on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, it will not drop much lower than 572.64. There's some doubt as to whether it will continue, as the Keltner line in question, at 572.64, now turns lower. The same is true of the Dow's Keltner style bullish divergence, mentioned at 2:00. The Dow has already begun bouncing from above that Keltner line, as I had suggested it might do in that post if bullish divergence were to continue, but the Keltner line in question turns lower on the Dow, too. The MACD has not broken below its trendline of higher lows. So, bullish divergence has not yet been undone, but its continuation is looking a bit more iffy than it did earlier, already iffy then.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 2:41:28 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 2:33:32 PM

New session low for Ten year treasuries, with TNX up to a 3.5 bp gain at 4.551%. Yields and the CRB remain high, both of which should continue to pressure equities.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 2:31:38 PM

Swing trade short alert ... for Merck (MRK) $32.00 -0.89% here, stop $32.60, target $29.20.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 2:30:44 PM

The OEX is dropping straight to that H&S neckline that I mentioned in my 2:13 post. Remember that necklines also serve as bounce points, so the OEX might bounce from that 573-573.20 area. If not, the neckline for the larger H&S, the one to which this one serves as a right shoulder, is at about 572.28. This is also the 100-ema on the 240-minute chart, a chart I sometimes watch. Keep your profit-protecting plans in place, with aggressive traders perhaps holding onto a portion of their positions in case the OEX does break through all that potential support. It does already appear to have broken below the ascending trendline off the January 24 low, but it has been trading sideways since, a troublesome development for bears who hope to see a plunge after a break from a rising wedge and not this sideways trading. No bear should let a winning trade turn into a losing one, however. The OEX might have broken that trendline, but it's still printing a series of higher highs and has not seen a lower low on the daily chart as yet. Caution is needed still.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 2:26:48 PM

Intl. Game Tech (IGT) $28.02 -0.98% Link .... slot machine, gaming device maker not looking all that hot.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 2:25:53 PM

3rd test of the rising intraday support line for QQQQ: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 2:24:31 PM

Good Gravy! ... Station Casinos (STN) $69.02 _12.13% Link ... still some room to its PnF chart's bullish vertical count of $84.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 2:21:22 PM

Advdec line still dropping.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 2:16:34 PM

Nymex crude is up .68% here at 55.325. Gold is down .07% at 441.40, HUI -.25% at 218.18.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 2:13:39 PM

In my 1:42 post, I mentioned the possibility of 15-minute support holding and the need for profit-protecting plans being in effect, and now the OEX does bounce. It's facing first 15-minute resistance, punching up to it and now dropping back a little. That resistance is at 574.55, with other resistance lines arrayed above at fairly small intervals. As was the case with the Dow (2:00 post), those resistance lines are thicker than supporting lines, but haven't yet converged into firm resistance, so it's difficult to judge which might stop the OEX. A buy program might be able to bounce through them just now. Note that there's a potential continuation-form H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart with a neckline at about 573.20. I don't trust these formations usually, but I do note that this one is actually the right shoulder of a larger formation on a 240-minute chart, so perhaps it does bear watching. For now, the OEX is probably in a right-shoulder building (for the smaller formation) exercise and we may be in for some choppy trading between 573 and 576.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 2:11:57 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 2:08:43 PM

QQQQ's broken north of the 7200 tick SMA again and is pulling back for a retest. A bounce from 37.07 would be the first successful test of the SMA line from above, and suggest a more aggressive test of 37.15-.17 resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 2:03:15 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 2:00:00 PM

The Dow usually conforms fairly well to its 15-minute Keltner channels, so I took a look at it to see what I could see. I do note that each 15-minute low has been showing Keltner-style bullish divergence since Thursday afternoon. In these divergences, the Dow might even make a lower low but each approach to a lower channel line would show less weakness--it might pierce the channel deeply on first approach, less deeply on next, only touch it on the next, etc. This has been happening on the Dow with respect to a Keltner line currently at 10,753.91. If that bullish divergence is to be continued, this time, the Dow might not even quite touch that Keltner line. So, the $64,000 question is whether the bullish divergence will continue. MACD evidence first: Since Thursday afternoon, the MACD has been making a series of higher lows, so draw a trendline off those higher lows. Bears want to see that trendline broken; bulls want to see it continue to support the MACD. Keltner evidence next: right now, resistance on that 15-minute chart looks stronger than support, but that's based merely on the fact that more resistance lines lie above the Dow than support lines below it. The resistance lines aren't yet firmed up into converging masses of resistance. Currently, closest resistance (on 15-minute closes) is at 10,787.83, with resistance just above that from 10,796.57-10,805.41, and then just above that at 10,818.20. There's opportunity here for that resistance to firm up so much that it's tough to break through, but it's not quite there just yet. Much depends on what happens over the next few 15-minute periods, I think. So, although the 15-minute Keltner channels give us some if/then kind of information, they don't give a strong prediction just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 1:59:43 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.82 -0.29% ... option chain screen capture sorted by March Open Interest at this Link Those traders NAKED the March $108 calls need to keep eye on the $108 puts. Those are now "in the money" for retail, but market maker that may have SOLD them may be seeing a loss. If so, he/she may be set on getting them profitable before Friday.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 1:58:44 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 1:45:57 PM

The CRB is up again, +2.35 to 319.59 on strength in agriculturals- soybeans, wheat and corn futures.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 1:42:40 PM

The 60-minute Keltner chart for the OEX shows Keltner support trying to firm between 572.26-572.97, so this is another point at which bears should have profit-protecting plans in place. The most conservative traders might have already exited full or partial plays, but, if not, that Keltner level should be watched, with protecting profits in mind. If the OEX should break through the Keltner line currently at 572.24 on a 60-minute close, soundly breaking through it, then a downside target of 565.11 is suggested by the 60-minute chart. That target has not yet been set, and we should expect at least a bounce attempt from somewhere between the current level and 572.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 1:41:51 PM

QQQQ bounced from a higher low, contrary to the OEX and ES. 37.00 continues to hold as support, with 30 min channel support now down to 36.97 and 60 min channel support at 36.95. QQQQ is bearish below 37.15. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 1:39:04 PM

The advdec line still drops.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 1:32:38 PM

Session low for Ten year bonds here, with TNX up 2.4 bps at 4.54%. This move seems to coincide with the auction results coming out in the past few minutes in the mainstream press. Like yesterday, the bid-to-cover ration represented a low for the year and was below average for the past 5 years.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 1:25:44 PM

New LOD on the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 1:22:48 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 1:20:07 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 1:18:41 PM

The 4-week t-bill auction generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.75, at a high rate of 2.645% and indirect bidders taking 4.53B of the 24B auctioned. Ten year notes remain negative, TNX up 1.2 bps at 4.528% here.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 1:13:07 PM

OEX breaking lower again. Bears want to see a new LOD, but should be careful of a potential bounce from that LOD.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 1:10:40 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.99 -0.16% ... pretty good downward price VOLUME SPIKE of 400,000 shares from $108.15-$107.95 (11:40-11:45 AM EST)

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 1:06:59 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 1:05:23 PM

The Chicago Fed's Midwest Manufacturing Index for January was unchanged from December's revised slightly lower 118.4. Regional auto production dropped but steel and machinery production increased. Since this is a January number, it may not have much impact.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 1:04:38 PM

TRIN 1.15 ... intra-day chart with QCharts' daily pivot levels and 1.00 line of neutrality at this Link with QQQQ observations.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 1:03:43 PM

The lack of pullback has the short cycle oscillators in an upphase, but the persistence of resistance here is making it look corrective so far. The price pattern is looking like a flag so far, and volume is declining on the rise. 37.15-.17 remains upside resistance to break, 37.00 confluence support with flag support first at 37.08.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 12:52:47 PM

$RLX dropping below the 50- and 30-sma. SOX punched down to the 100-sma and is trying to bounce, testing the 200-ema as I type. Neither the GSO and GHA is showing strength. The BIX balances just above its 200-sma, but has fallen steeply off the day's high. TRAN is near the flat-line level, but at the bottom of the rising regression channel established off last week's low. This is a slightly weaker picture than earlier, but still some mixture of signs.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 12:52:11 PM

Genentech (DNA) $56.00 +1.81% ... Trade observation is that DNA pulled right back to where I had purchased the stock yesterday $54.50, and now in middle of day's range. "Max Pain" for March is $45.00 ($5.00 increment) and while I don't think this would now be in play, I would look for CALL entries back near $52.00.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 12:47:58 PM

The most conservative OEX short-term bears should probably already have taken partial or full profit as the OEX pauses at the midline of its descending regression channel. Keltner resistance still looks stronger than support and the OEX could keel over, but . . . it could not, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 12:46:40 PM

Volume has fallen off sharply here for QQQQ, which is chopping along below 37.10. The 7200 tick SMA has descended to 37.13, and the 30 min cycle downphase is beginning to flatten within the declining 60 min cycle channel. With QQQQ and OEX maximum pain levels slightly above current levels (37.625 and 575 respectively), op-ex week appears to be working fine, if on the early side, with 3 days left to go.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 12:40:21 PM

Shutting down for a minute. Computer memory allocation problems.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 12:39:53 PM

A look at the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 12:44:46 PM

They're comparing Ebbers to Lay now and their comparable defenses. From what I've been hearing from my brother, a former VP with an Enron subsidiary, Lay's management style was much different from that they've talked about with Ebbers. Lay was a delegating type of leader, and I can't imagine him watching employees on their breaks, as CNBC commentators mentioned Ebbers as having done. FWIW, my brother feels that it's possible that Lay didn't know a lot of what was going on. (Note: my brother was gone before the Enron excesses, and, as many employees did, believed strongly in the company's prospects. Many did, up until the end.) This is NOT a defense of Lay. My brother lost much with Enron's collapse, as did many, and whatever Lay's management style, he should have known what was going on.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 12:33:08 PM

Session low for ZN bond futures, with the TNX now up 1.2 bps at 4.528%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 12:28:12 PM

As I recalibrate my fib grid on the 2 day 100 tick chart, it's worth noting that the break to a new high followed by a reversal and break of the previous low is a key outside reversal if it occurs on a daily closing basis. A close below 37.03 would be a very bearish print for the day. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 12:26:31 PM

The TRAN declined heavily along with other indices, falling toward the bottom of its ascending regression channel. Watch for a steadying here or for a break through the channel line, just below 3840. Link Market bulls want a TRAN bounce--although I'm very skeptical of further TRAN gains now--and bears want a breakdown below this channel.

Tab Gilles : 3/15/2005 12:25:32 PM

Bernie Ebbers found guilty... convicted securities fraud.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 12:21:52 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.95 -0.17% ... DAILY Pivot here. Option expiration "manipulation?"

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 12:20:59 PM

QQQQ $37.08 -0.69% ... I thought certain in last night's MM that DAILY S1 would be a strong support level, where early in the session, TRIN would rise to its DAILY R2, then we would see a reversal higher for the QQQQ and falling TRIN back toward its DAILY Pivot. While still early in the session, have to re-think things a bit, but downside risk for the QQQQ now at DAILY S2.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 12:18:43 PM

Since we don't have the archived articles from last year, I'm doing a new Traders Corner article on nested Keltner channels for this weekend's newsletter. It will specifically watch last week's behavior, showing how I use those channels to set targets on breakouts.

For now, here's what the 15-minute Keltner channels show. The OEX is attempting to balance on nearby Keltner support at 574.62 (15-minute closing level) and bounce from that, but the support looks somewhat tepid and resistance is trying to firm near 575.44-575.72 and again at 576.80 and then 577.81. If the OEX doesn't zoom higher on a strong buy program, that resistance is looking stronger than the support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 12:16:47 PM

QQQQ bounces from 37 support but has yet to even turn the short cycle channel, which continues to point sideways-down. 37.15-.17 continues to apear the key resistance here for both the short and 30 min cycles- confluence, 7200-tick SMA and trendline resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 12:15:12 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 12:14:45 PM

Yes, I've just stopped watching the TRIN, Mark, except for glancing at it now and then. Strange. I can remember a time when the TRIN was the breadth indicator I watched most often.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 12:11:06 PM

Ten year treasuries have flipped to negative here as Greenspan completes his testimony. I believe that the 24B treasury auction has kicked off as well. TNX is up to a .6 bp gain at 4.522%. However, the downside move broke yesterday's and Friday's lows: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 12:09:24 PM

The OEX has moved into a zone that might offer historical support, although the 60-minute chart now shows a downside target near 572.36-573.08. When I look at the formation on the 15-minute chart, I note yet another potential inverse H&S with the right shoulder level at that 574-ish zone. I warned earlier that bears might put profit-protecting plans into effect in this zone, and so now those plans should guide further actions. The most conservative bearish traders might want to take partial or full profit. The midline of the descending regression channel is being tested.

Mark Davis : 3/15/2005 12:07:42 PM

Linda the A/D line has been trumping the TRIN for some time now. I still don't know why TRIN doesn't get on board but that's the way it is for now.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 12:06:21 PM

The advdec line continues lower. It's been a good indicator to watch today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 12:02:27 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/15/2005 12:15:26 PM

Yesterday I noted (12:50PM) that $44 on the GLD chart was near term support. Too keep an eye on the EUR/USD 1.3330 level and Fib retracements. Here's todays charts. Link Link

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan told a Senate committee that efforts to forecast the path of the dollar in foreign exchange markets are "no better than chance." Asked whether seniors spooked by a falling dollar should buy foreign-denominated certificates of deposit, Greenspan said such a move would be "rank speculation." Greenspan, however, said efforts to boost national savings in order to help pay for the retirement of Baby Boomers would go a "long way in creating balance in our international accounts and would be a significant factor in the reduction of our current account balance."

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 11:57:41 AM

The 30 and 60 min cycles are now in gear to the downside with support running lower, currently down to confluence at 37.00. These cycles will remain bearish with QQQQ below the 37.15 line, and because the 60 min channel takes so long to turn, that bias looks likely to continue. 36.96-37.00 is confluence in both directions, and bearish traders will want to see price break 36.96 to kick off the next leg of the decline, if such is to occur. A break north of 37.15 will be the first sign of trouble for bears, and would stall the downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:55:42 AM

VIX.X ... 12.68 +2.34% ... back above WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:54:54 AM

TRIN 1.16 +136.7% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:53:37 AM

Would be helpful to see what other traders in the MM are doing. If anything.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 11:52:53 AM

The OEX is resting on Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, although it's not clear whether that support just above 575 is strong enough to support the OEX . . . dropping just through it as I type. Support thins below this on the 15-minute chart, but is next found at 573.09. Remember historical support at 574, near the midline of the descending regression channel through which the OEX turns. If in bearish positions on a downturn through this channel, have profit-protecting measures in place for 574-574.80.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:53:14 AM

IBM $91.77 -0.14% .. right where I we day trade shorted yesterday. Should I short this market here? I don't think so. Still, I've tried to buy it twice (DNA, QQQQ) and not gain.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:50:49 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for the QQQQ $37.05

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:49:48 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.05 -0.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:49:02 AM

QQQQ $37.11 ... session low has been $37.07.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:47:13 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $15.62 +1.75% Link ... X gets the square at $15.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 11:43:33 AM

1st support here is at 37.07, being the overlapping 30 and 60 min channel bottoms for QQQQ. However, because this is a relatively young downphase for the 60 min cycle, a failure to break back above 37.17 should see that support continue to descend. Until the 30 and 60 min cyles are oversold, the tests of channel support should be treated with caution. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 11:42:00 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:38:39 AM

QQQQ $37.11 -0.58% ... session low

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:37:34 AM

SOX.X 422.74 -1.74% ... just sitting here, but not looking very bullish, or looking like it wants to bounce from a WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:35:23 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.24 +0.09% ... session high has been $108.48. The NAKED calls I've profiled have traded a high of $0.60. $108 + $0.60 = $108.60. May still be seeing some call selling against DAILY R2/WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:32:27 AM

TRIN 1.03 +110% ... since 10:00 AM EST has not been able to come back under the 1.00 level. QQQQ $37.17 -0.45% ... since 10:00 AM EST has not been able to get above $37.29. Have seen two (2) five-minute bar closes above DAILY Pivot, but has found resistance there.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 11:31:34 AM

Advdec line still generally headed lower off the day's high.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 11:30:58 AM

The OEX is approaching three-minute Keltner support mentioned earlier, currently at 576.59. If the OEX violates that, a downturn toward 575.65-575.84 looks possible. Support being tested as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:26:00 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 11:24:43 AM

We will have a few minutes left in this 60-minute period, but it looks as if we might have another 60-minute period that leaves a long upper shadow behind, a shadow that tried to pierce Keltner resistance and the 60-minute 100-ema. Not compelling evidence for bullish trades, but still the OEX refuses to even retest that minimal gap from this morning. The mixture of behavior among the various indices is showing up here by a mixture of evidence.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 11:21:29 AM

ES and OEX ran out of gas at a lower high, and QQQQ failed at the 7200 ticks SMA. However, the pullbacks are very shallow here, and the short cycle upphase remains intact. Until QQQQ breaks back below 37.15, the short cycle will continue to point up- while the bulls need to see 37.29, the current 7200 tick SMA resistance, broken to the upside.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 11:13:01 AM

RLX challenging the 50-sma now. With a one-day exception earlier in the month, this MA has been holding back the RLX since the beginning of the year. May do so again. Watch the test and then 444.50 if the RLX gets past the 50-sma at 439.40, with the RLX currently at 439.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:12:07 AM

Blue Nile (NILE) $31.44 +4.14% ... busting a move above 4-month resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 11:10:40 AM

QQQQ $37.23 -0.29% ... 5-minute chart with QCharts' DAILY Pivot levels at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 11:09:01 AM

Turning to the OEX three-minute Keltner chart to get a closer-in view, I see that there's currently Keltner-style bearish divergence on that chart. That can be reversed if the OEX breaks higher and carries the smallest Keltner channel higher along with it, but it exists just now. The OEX is facing three-minute Keltner resistance, turning down from it as I type, but three-minute support lies just below to 577.21 and then again at just under 577 and just under 576.50. Either some indices are going to have to give up their gains or some are going to have to bounce before there can be much movement any direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 11:08:49 AM

IB is back up over here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 11:04:30 AM

IB's east coast server has just gone down over here for all feeds and markets- ECBOT just flickered, but the rest remain blank.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 11:01:41 AM

The TRAN is still climbing, the BIX still strong, but tech-related indices such as the SOX, GSO and GHA remain weak although trying to bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 11:00:29 AM

OEX and the ES futures are within spitting distance of their morning highs. NQ and QQQQ are relatively farther away and remain down .26% and .27% respectively. A break to new highs for the OEX/ES futures should give QQQQ a lift.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:58:54 AM

OEX rising to test that 15-minute and 60-minute Keltner resistance again. Bulls want to see a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 577.68 to set up a new breakout signal, or at least to maintain 15-minute closes above a supporting Keltner line currently at 576.38, to keep the smallest channel pointed higher.

Tab Gilles : 3/15/2005 10:56:33 AM

Semiconductor Holders (SMH) Link ...One week later... Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:56:19 AM

QQQQ $27.24 -0.26% ... back to DAILY Pivot. TRIN 1.08

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 10:56:08 AM

QQQQ update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:55:30 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:55:49 AM

The SOX has dropped below the 200-ema. This average does not appear to have as much relevance to the SOX's trading pattern as does the 200-sma, but that's not all that far below, either, at 417.07. Bears should watch for a potential bounce from the 417-420 area, especially as it's also near the 2/23 low of 419.57. A failure to bounce won't look good for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:47:01 AM

SOX.X 422.99 -1.66% ... just above WEEKLY S1. Thinking ... we're at quite a few support levels in the matrix, just need some computer buying to kick in.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:45:40 AM

No filling of this morning's small gap yet on the OEX. BIX strength works against tech weakness, making it difficult to feel much confidence in either direction. Don't marry positions in either direction in this kind of environment.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:44:21 AM

TRIN 1.09 +122% QQQQ $37.17 -0.45% DIA $108.23 +0.08%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 10:43:34 AM

QQQQ is testing lower 60 min channel support as the 30 min cycle downphases gets underway: Link . The 7200 tick SMA has rolled over and is now hugging the descending flag resistance line at 37.31. While bears can accept a bounce to retest the prior high as a double top to exhaust the 60 min cycle upphase, it needs to start soon in order to prevent the 60 min cycle from joining in. The short cycle is oversold and looking for a bounce here.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:40:26 AM

The OEX is below 15-minute and 60-minute mid-channel S/R after having punched above both, which is in the bears' favor, but it's just not falling yet, which is in the bulls'. TRIN and VIX aren't much help. The trend of the advdec line is still down, but it looks as if it's trying to steady and the value is still positive.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:39:40 AM

Swing trade cancel order to go long at higher entry of $37.30 (but still look for confirmation of strength there). (see 10:16:03)

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:38:07 AM

Swing trade long alert for the QQQQ $37.18 here, stop $37.05, target $37.57.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:38:03 AM

The BIX has been bouncing today and is now above Friday's high. Just barely. If the BIX continues rising today, watch the converging 30- and 50-dma's at 366.48-367.68 for potential resistance. A continued BIX climb is in the bulls' favor; a downturn, in the bears' favor.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:37:24 AM

TRIN 1.13 +130% ... did "pop" to 1.22. QQQQ $37.18.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 10:37:04 AM

The Fed's big repo this morning seems to be helping treasuries today ahead of the big 24B 4-week t-bill auction. We'll have those results at 1PM. TNX is currently down 3.4 bps at 4.482%. Gap support is at 4.44%, with stronger confluence at the bottom of the gap at 4.4%: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:34:30 AM

QQQQ $37.17 -0.45% ... the intra-day "moment of truth" quickly approaching.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:29:57 AM

Advdec line dropping. Still positive, but at less than 50% of high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:27:27 AM

TRIN 1.05 +114.28 ... session high has been 1.15.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:30:22 AM

QQQQ $37.18 -0.4% ... today's action very similar to that of Friday. BULLS and BEARS now al_rt and look for DIVERGENCE to pattern within the matrix with additional information from yesterday's large block trade.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:25:07 AM

The conclusion of the current 15-minute period is important in determining an outlook for the OEX, at least according to Keltner evidence. As I've been mentioning all morning, the 15-minute breakout has not yet been convincing and the downturn that created an evening-star reversal signal made it even less so. Now, the current 15-minute period will also conclude the first 60 minutes of trading. Barring a strong surge higher in the last five minutes of this period, the OEX looks likely to have pierced the 60-minute resistance and then fallen back below it, creating a gravestone doji. It has not yet fallen back into this morning's gap, a plus for bulls, but this isn't convincing bullish evidence just yet. I'd be careful.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:24:15 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link (These are today's 10:00 internals, I'll change date at 11:00 readings)

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:19:32 AM

VIX.X 12.54 +1.29% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.10, 12.28, Piv= 12.64, 12.81, 13.17.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:18:12 AM

The OEX is turning down at the top of its descending trendline, from Keltner resistance on the 15-minute and 60-minute nested Keltner charts. There's potential for a pop-and-drop day here, but the OEX clings to last 15-minute Keltner support. Internals don't yet support a bearish play, but the Keltners suggest that the OEX might be turning down toward 574.00-575.20.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:16:03 AM

Bullish swing trade setup alert for the QQQQ $37.22 -0.32% ... look to go long on strength back above the DAILY Pivot at $37.30, stop $37.05, minimum target $37.57. Session low so far has been $37.18.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 10:12:56 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link with session lows printing as I type. Look for first support at 37.16, being 60 min channel support but so long as price holds below 37.35, the intraday bias will be bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:08:26 AM

TRIN 1.03 +110%

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:08:01 AM

QQQQ $37.25 -0.24%

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:07:56 AM

Careful, OEX bulls. Potential for an evening-star formation on the 15-minute chart, with the OEX now testing 15-minute Keltner support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:06:55 AM

Jonathan ... will you be profiling a trade in the QQQQ today? This week?

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 10:06:04 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 10:04:11 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 10:03:08 AM

Another 15-minute close above the Keltner S/R just below, down to 576.90, but the OEX struggles with the 60-minute resistance, which extends just a little higher, up to 577.41, currently. I'm not entirely convinced about that 582.30-582.60 upside target. I'm not entirely convinced the breakout will stick.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 10:02:13 AM






Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 10:01:14 AM




10:00am U.S. JAN. BUSINESS SALES UP 0.8%


Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 9:54:22 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just released a huge 9.5B overnight repo to replace the 8B expiring for a net add of 1.5B.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 9:51:08 AM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... DNA $57.00

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 9:49:41 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute nested Keltner chart shows: There's been a breakout above a channel line on that chart, but only minutely. The OEX is coming down now to retest that resistance it just broke through on this chart with the first 15-minute close. Bulls want to see the OEX close the current just-begun 15-minute period above that massing Keltner S/R, at a Keltner line currently at 576.83 and certainly above the Keltner lines currently at 575.04-575.55. Otherwise, that sets up the possibility of a pop-and-drop day. If the Keltner support is maintained and the 60-minute resistance is surmounted, an upside target of 582.55 is set. Remember that this might well be a countertrend play and upside target might not be met, and the target is erased if the OEX can't maintain that support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 9:47:52 AM

We await the 10AM release of Business Inventories, as well as the disposition of the Fed's expiring 8B overnight repo expiring today.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 9:47:00 AM

The downward zigzag off the 37.48 high looks like a bull flag for QQQQ, with upper trendline resistance at 37.44-.45 currently. Volume is declining as price drops here, with lower flag support currently at 37.34. A high volume break above the upper descending resistance line would target upper keltner resistance at 37.56.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 9:45:29 AM

Before I look at a shorter-term chart, I wanted to look at the RLX after this morning's report. Shared components of the RLX and OEX are sometimes important to the OEX's performance. The RLX rises tepidly, but only to challenge the converging 30- and 50-sma's, not above either as yet.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 9:43:48 AM

In addition to the Keltner resistance being tested, the OEX also tests the 60-minute 100-ema at 577.34, just above that as I type. Remember that it's 60-minute closes that count. Going to take a look at a shorter-term chart now.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 9:39:53 AM

Advdec line shooting higher.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 9:40:16 AM

Day trade long alert .... for Genentech (DNA) $58.13 +5.49% here, stop $57.00, target $61.00. (Disclosure: I currently own bullish position in DNA, stop $57.00)

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 9:38:50 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 427.89 -0.54% ... QQQQ $37.42 +0.21%

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 9:37:59 AM

DNA $57.50 +4.54% ... first 5-minute bar for you day trader's was from $57.20-$58.00. This would have BLUE #6 up at $61.41.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 9:37:59 AM

TRAN moving up this morning toward the 3/08 high of 3889.84, with the TRAN at 3864.96 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 9:37:38 AM

TRAN moving up this morning toward the 3/08 high of 3889.84, with the TRAN at 3864.96 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 9:36:57 AM

QQQQ is in a bullish divergent 30 min cycle upphase, with today's opening pullback bouncing above 7200 tick SMA support at 37.38. Above that level, the channel will continue rising, with the current top at 37.51. The premarket high of 37.48 just held for a retest as I typed, with a large 1M+ shares traded within a 100 tick bar.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 9:33:00 AM

Crude currently up $0.52 to $54.95. Perhaps someone else has mentioned it, but Saudi is trying a "verbal intervention" this morning to keep prices in check. Doesn't appear to be working, does it?

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 9:31:44 AM

The OEX is moving straight up into the 60-minute Keltner resistance, right up to the top of its descending regression channel. We'll get the test early this morning. Bears want to see a first-hour close beneath a Keltner line curently at 577.43.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 9:30:12 AM

Genentech (DNA) ... chart we drew up based on trader's question at this Link BLUE is conventional from high to low while PINK is conventional from high close to low close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 9:23:34 AM

Genentech (DNA) $55.00 ... higher at $58.75 in pre-market. I bought some yesterday and am placing a stop at $57.00 on 1/2 of the position. From previously shown charts I've got a "zone of support" from $54.54-$54.62, then $57.16-$57.84 and a "zone of resistance" from $61.57-$63.05.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2005 9:11:36 AM

Pre-market most actives ... CMGI $2.03 +12%, SONS $4.57 +4.8%, TIVO $6.25 +63%, QQQQ $37.43 +0.24%, PDLI $17.45 +6.3%, DNA $58.25 +8.5%.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 9:09:31 AM

Monday, the OEX ended the day by inching just above a 50% retracement of Friday's range. Maybe. QCharts shows a discrepancy, with the intraday chart showing a lower closing level than the daily chart. There's a chance that the OEX has been forming a descending regression channel since about last Wednesday, with the top of that channel now at about 576.70, with 15-minute and 60-minute Keltner resistance looking strong at that level, too. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance lies at just over 577, with 60-minute resistance ranging up to 577.46. Bears can look for a rollover from that 577-577.50 level, although this morning's foreign inflows numbers questions whether that will occur. A breakout much over that level suggests that bears should stand back and watch, although I'm still leery of new bullish entries. I cautioned yesterday that new bullish entries could be highly profitable, but that they're just too iffy and the ending level too difficult to predict to suggest them as purely directional options plays. On a new bearish entry, protect profits at Friday's low down to 571.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 9:05:13 AM



8:59am U.S. JAN. CAPITAL FLOWS $91.5 BLN VS. REV. $60.7 BLN DEC

Bonds have firmed, with TNX back to a 3.2 bp loss at 4.484%. Gold is down to a 1.2 gain at 442.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 8:48:42 AM

Bonds are pulling back, TNX up a 1.7 bp loss at 4.499%. QQQQ is still holding at 37.43, ES at 1214.25. The earlier spike collided with the upper rising 30 min keltner channels, but the pullback is shallow. Generally, that would be a bullish setup, with the price holding near the highs as the channels climb higher. However, in the low-volume premarket, the timing is different, and bullish traders will want to see these gains hold past the cash open- otherwise, it looks like a good candidate for a pop n drop. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 8:37:46 AM

Refreshable US Dollar Index chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 8:33:10 AM



Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 8:32:52 AM

Bonds eased off slightly, but TNX is still down 4.2 bps to 4.474%, a .93% decline. Gold is up 2.5 to a session high of 444.2, ES to 1215, QQQQ trading 37.43.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 8:31:37 AM



Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 8:30:57 AM










Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 8:07:29 AM

Ten year bonds have risen to session highs at 109 7.64, followed by CAD futures, followed by equities across the board with ES +2 to 1214, NQ +3 to 1528, and QQQQ breaking yesterday's high, now trading 37.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/15/2005 7:46:33 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1212.75, NQ 1525, YM 10842 and QQQQ flat at 37.34. Gold is up 1.40 at 443.10, silver +.062 at 7.469, ten year notes +.2031 at 109 1/32, and Nymex crude flat at 54.95.

We await the 8:30 release of the Empire State Index, est. 19.9, retail sales for February, est. +.6%, and retail sales ex-auto, est. .8%. At 10AM, we get Business inventories for January, est. .9%.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2005 7:22:34 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei started out with gains, but erased those gains by early afternoon and closed lower amid continued tech weakness. European markets trade higher with mostly encouraging news from the ZEW sentiment numbers. Our futures trade near the flat-line levels, all off the overnight lows reached near the European open. As of 6:41 EST, gold was up $1.60, and crude, down $0.10 to $54.85. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, Japan's Minister of Finance Tanigaki claimed that the ministry would act to stop excessive movements in the forex markets. He warned that the Bank of Japan should still be on guard against inflation. One positive influence on early trading was a newspaper report that electronics makers Hitachi and Toshiba would pay higher dividends and Nippon Steel and JFE Holdings would raise prices to customers. That positive influence was to be outweighed by continued tech weakness and declines in companies such as auto manufacturers who use steel, however. The Nikkei opened near 11,900 and turned higher during earliest trading but soon dropped, falling below the flat-line level by early in the afternoon session. The Nikkei closed lower by 29.16 points or 0.25%, at 11,821.09.

Most other Asian markets turned lower, some falling heavily amid that continued tech weakness and continued political rhetoric concerning Taiwan. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.50%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 2.60%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.23%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.65%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.88%. Reports of strong inflation and IP data from China renewed fears that the government's efforts to produce that soft landing have not been as effective as had been thought earlier. Some speculate that rate hikes will have to be put into effect.

European markets trade in positive territory this morning, with ZEW Sentiment Index numbers having been released. One source terms the release a "mixed read." March's expectations rose for both Germany and the eurozone. In Germany, the number was a stronger-than-expected 36.3, up from February's 35.9, with expectations having been for a drop to 33.2. The eurozone's number rose to 37.3 from February's 36. These improvements came despite the firmer euro and higher crude prices. However, Germany's current conditions component fell heavily.

In the U.K., bourses are sent higher by oil and drug-related companies. On CNBC Europe, much talk centers around a drug company, Roche, leading gainers today after the lung cancer drug it jointly developed with Genentech prolonged life in a Phase II trial. Many other drug companies producing competing drugs moved higher, too, but pharmaceutical Bayer dropped after it gave a dour outlook for demand in Eastern Europe and Germany. In other stock-specific news, tire manufacturer Michelin dropped after missing forecasts and reinsurer Munich Re inched higher after forecasting group premiums for 2005 ahead of expectations.

As of 7:12 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 13 points or 0.26%, to 4,988.00. The CAC 40 was higher by 26.92 points or 0.66%, to 4,075.47. The DAX was higher by 10.60 points or 0.24%, to 4,377.90.

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