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Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:25:43 AM

NDX Stocks that were sold the most during Wednesday by program trading firms were PETM, TEVA, AMZN, ERICY, FLEX, DELL, JNPR, FAST, ESRX, IACI, ATYT, CHKP, LBTYA, CTSH, BRCM, MSFT, LRCX, MRVL, NTAP, GRMN, MCHP, XRAY, XLNX and INTC.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:23:42 AM

OEX Stocks that were sold the most during Wednesday by program trading firms were GM, DELL, SLE, BAX, DOW, F, WY, VZ, BAC, MSFT, PEP, EK, TXN, INTC, MO, T, SBC, AIG, BDK, CI, MRK, CSCO, AVP, DD and FDX.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:11:40 AM

Merck (MRK) $31.70 ... fell to $31.33 in extended session. FDA approved Fujisawa Pharmaceutical's anti-fungal product Mycamine, which will reportedly compete with Merck's Cancidas drug in the U.S.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:07:30 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.54 and set for program selling at $+3.27. When the S&P Index Futures premium over "Cash" gets too high, I sell the future and buy the stocks. If the premium disappears, well, buy the future and sell the stocks. -- Neil Elliot (Fahnestock)

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:03:08 AM

Ameritrade accounts ... just got off the phone with an Ameritrade representative asking her what was going on with reported option trades I made in my account today. If you're seeing a bunch of buy/sell cancellations, what apparently took place is their earlier than planned display that option commissions were reduced to $0.75 per contract, down from the normal $1.50 commission schedule. As such, they had honored the earlier than planned reduction, and traders should receive the $0.75 per contract. I'll check my account more closely tomorrow, but you should do the same if your broker is Ameritrade.

Tab Gilles : 3/17/2005 12:11:35 AM

Gold World Spot- 11:30PM Bid $443.20/ Ask $443.70 , up from NY close +0.10 +0.02%

Bureau of Economic Analysis Link

The dollar slid against the euro Wednesday on data that showed the U.S. current account deficit soaring more than expected in the fourth quarter and far exceeding its previous record for the full year. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the deficit in the U.S. current account increased by 25.5 per cent last year to a record $665.9 billion US. Forecasters said the 2005 deficit could be $100 billion higher than that as the United States continues to buy record levels of foreign consumer goods and oil. In recent weeks, a South Korean official and the Japanese prime minister suggested that their countries may want to diversify their foreign holdings into currencies other than the dollar. For 2004, the current account deficit reflected a shortfall of $665.5 billion in goods, compared with a goods deficit of $547.6 billion in 2003. The surplus in services shrank to $48.4 billion.

$GOX Link

EUR/USD hourly Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 10:30:28 PM

Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/16/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 5:52:20 PM

OI subscriber faded his bullish Adelphia call too. I'll never forget the day of their conference call when the stock was bidding against us, then suddenly, the stock tanked (intra-day during the conference call) after it was disclosed that huge loans had been given to major shareholders. Went bankrupt pretty quick too. :) As noted in the past... sometime I'll agree with his thoughts/comments, sometimes I won't. I've told the story too how I had a bunch of clients in a bullish position in WAVO from $6.00 and we were targeting $25. We got the news that we had hoped for when MSFT licences their software. I had my sell tickets all ready to go as the stock bid to $22 in pre-market. Then, Mr. Cramer (was hosting the morning show on CNBC) started yelling and screaming that the stock was a short, way overpriced, but he couldn't find a share to short. I was angry, ran to our trading desk and told him to block it out at the open and get rid of it! I knew there was a long way to go for their broadcast technology. Mr. Cramer was right on that one and they're on the pink sheets today. Haven't heard much from PointCast in a long time either. Remember when Wall Street was beating on them to come public? They didn't as they had all the "angel capital" they could handle. They're probably wishing they had come public.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/16/2005 5:30:06 PM

Cramer's calls on market direction are quite good. He warned many last week about what wa coming. He has been an energy bull for a long time. He's on top of it (except for his love of LU).

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 5:33:44 PM

I like it. Even though he won't be right 100% of the time, it is refreshing to see a trader/investor showing conviction and enthusiasm! I like his sound cards that he has with the bull and bear graphics that flash on the screen. I'll miss Mr. Cramer's program tonight as I hopefully have my LAST MEETING with the tax accountant tonight. I'll be glad when this is over.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 5:12:12 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/16/2005 4:51:20 PM

Thanks Jeff!!! Nice work on your end too!

Have you been watching Cramer's new CNBC program? Love or hate'em...he's a character...very entertaining :)

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 4:39:54 PM

Excellent observation Tab! Here's another sign that industrials were under pressure today. Here's the price-weighted Dow components with today's net% change, 5-day%, 20-day% and 52-week%. Link

Tab Gilles : 3/16/2005 4:26:59 PM

XLB Material Select Sector reflecting industirals selling, today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 4:15:00 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's list of CLOSED trades that I've profiled in the past at this Link Today's opening trade activity ... Sold three (3) out the money Merck MRK Apr. $30 Put (MRK-PF) at the bid of $0.30. This is a covered put against yesterday's swing trade short in the undelying shares of MRK.

Tab Gilles : 3/16/2005 4:10:46 PM

$NASI & $COMPQ One of my key indicators has been the Summation Index, confiramtion on the MACD and SAR of $COMPQ decline. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:59:10 PM

Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 852.15 -0.01% ... slip back to unchanged. Goldbugs ($HUI.X) 220.41 +0.78% ... percentage gainer despite U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) $81.61 -0.62% trading weak today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:56:48 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.40 -1.09% ... one has to wonder if that volume spike noted yesterday wasn't from "smart money" that may have gotten wind of GM's warning.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:52:48 PM

It's soon going to be time to make a decision about whether to hold overnight or not. I wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation tomorrow at these potential support levels: Link Those in front-month (March) puts should give special consideration as to whether they want to risk a day of consolidation while their time premium leaks away. If you exit, you're risking a further drop without your participation tomorrow, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see that choppy consolidation or even a bounce tomorrow.

Tab Gilles : 3/16/2005 3:49:38 PM

Semiconductor Holders More downside ahead. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:45:52 PM

Now the OEX faces 15-minute Keltner resistance massed from 567.38-568.39.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:43:32 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $79.30 +18% ... softening up a bit as we near the close. Buyer have defende this level since 01:00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:40:09 PM

General Motors (GM) $29.09 -13.76% ... comes back to test morning low! According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, "Market much luckier day before St. Patrick's Day!" Luck must be on the bear's side today!

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:39:19 PM

The OEX is tentatively breaking above a descending trendline off the 1:00 high.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:38:20 PM

Advdec line continues dropping, approaching a somewhat excessive -3,000 issues.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 3:38:48 PM

With key support for the ES futures at 1189-90 currently in play and a slight bullish macd divergence in QQQQ's short cycle, the 36.46-.50 level should provide stronger support than we've see so far today. Of course, QQQQ is a falling knife below the 7200 tick SMA, now down to 36.70. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:33:21 PM

VIX.X $13.57 +3.19% ... quick little drop from session high of $13.81 last 5-minutes.

Tab Gilles : 3/16/2005 3:33:01 PM

EUR/USD In reference to this mornings post at 6:48:45 AM. A bullish divergence signaled a higher EUR/USD and Gold went up today. However, keep an eye in coming days for a possible retest of the 1.3477 level, we may get a nearterm top on gold there. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:31:29 PM

I'm watching three-minute Keltner channels now for the OEX. Resistance still looks stronger than support, but the OEX resists falling too steeply, trying to find support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:26:41 PM

IBM (IBM) $90.50 -0.96% ... sets up for test of its rising 200-day SMA ($90.19). Has now retraced 50% of its monsterous August-January rise.

Tab Gilles : 3/16/2005 3:25:06 PM

$INDU Key supports being tested today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:24:37 PM

Swing trade sell puts alert ... sell three (3) covered Merck MRK April $30 puts (MRK-PF) at the bid of $0.30. MRK $31.54 -1.43% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 3:24:12 PM

New QQQQ lows, with 7200 tick SMA resistance down to 36.71. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:23:06 PM

Aggressive bearish traders who did not elect to take at least partial profits earlier should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 564-565, if touched.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:21:59 PM

LOD being retested . . . and broken through as I type.

Tab Gilles : 3/16/2005 3:14:46 PM

$NDX As I indicated in my 12:04AM post, watch the 200-ema for support. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:14:00 PM

Elan Corp. (ELN) $7.34 +1.80% ... it's been a wild intra-day swing fro this biotech. Low=$7.02 and High = $7.80.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:13:36 PM

Correction to my 3:12 post: those averages are the daily 100/130-ema's, not the 60-minute. The post has already been corrected.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:12:48 PM

Here's the OEX in relationship to its daily 100/130-ema's and to the 2/22 low: Link I think I'd be likely to take at least partial profits soon, realizing the possibility that the OEX could fall down toward 564-566 by the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 3:11:22 PM

Sharp upside move for QQQQ to upper descending wedge resistance off the triple touch of 36.60 support. That line coincides with the 7200 tick SMA at 36.74. The short cycle is oversold and looking for an upside break- but the move has to break 36.74.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:10:45 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $80.26 +19.66% ... continues to hold bulk of session's gains. Most active options are Mar $80 Call 24,283:12,052, Mar. $75 Put 17,343:6,962, Mar $80 Put 14,956:3,910, Mar $75 Call 11,406:13,511.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:08:55 PM

Careful, bears, the OEX's daily 100/130-ema's are just below, at 565.90 and 562.89, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:08:05 PM

The OEX is just inching down after breaking below 567. It's not really plummeting toward its next 60-minute target. That's because it's also sitting on 30-minute support. I usually find the OEX's 15- and 60-minute charts to have more relevance than the 30-minute ones, but it's showing some relevance now. Bears, continue to follow the OEX lower with your stops.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 3:05:39 PM

Earlier today, I mentioned that the Dow usually conforms fairly well to its 15-minute Keltner charts, and that it had already this morning initiated a breakout signal. At the time, the 60-minute chart set a downside target at 10,571.04. That 60-minute target has now moved down to 10,561.63, and remains a possible target as long as the Dow does not show 60-minute closes above 10,690.35.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 3:02:05 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 2:59:31 PM

QQQQ update at this Link . If the intraday double bottom lets go, next support comes at 36.50 for the 30 min cycle channel.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 2:53:59 PM

OEX now just below the 2/22 and 2/23 lows after inching just below them earlier. It may be trying to steady here, a natural place for it to attempt a steadying. Bears need to continue moving their stops lower as the OEX edges lower, in case of a bounce. Vulnerability to 564 still exists.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 2:43:28 PM

ES and OEX are retesting the lows, while QQQQ holds 4 cents above the 36.60 low in a small bear wedge that is creaking lower as I type. Channel support has descended another few cents, and the 30 and 60 min channels are still trending their way lower. Volume is up to 130M QQQQ shares here, but QQQQ will remain bearish below the 7200 tick SMA in even the shortest timeframes, which is down to 36.75 here.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 2:42:18 PM

The OEX now tests that continuation-form H&S's neckline.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 2:41:52 PM

OEX 567 being tested again.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 2:40:47 PM

There's a potential continuation-form H&S-ish formation on the OEX's five-minute chart. The neckline would be just below 567.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 2:36:20 PM

OEX 567 still holding as support; Keltner resistance now from 568.13-569.26 still holding on 15-minute closes, too.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 2:24:18 PM

So far, OEX 567 holds as support, as I was afraid (for the sake of bears) that it might. So far, 15-minute Keltner resistance at 568.23-569.44 also holds. A standoff.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 2:23:56 PM

No reaction in the crude oil futures to the Alaskan oil exploration news, with crude oil holding a 2.18% gain at 56.25.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 2:21:45 PM

FDA Halts Clinical Trials of Experimental Multiple Sclerosis Drug ... GlaxoSmithKline saying FDA halted trial on company's experimental multiple sclerosis drug, in part due to recent death of one patient in Tysabri study.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 2:20:37 PM

QQQQ update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 2:15:17 PM

The OEX attempts a bounce again. Bears want to see continued 15-minute closes below the Keltner resistance now from 568.29-569.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 2:14:13 PM

From Marketwatch:

In a legislative victory for President Bush, the Senate voted 51-49 Wednesday to keep language in the fiscal 2006 budget plan that would streamline future legislation to open Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, or ANWR, to oil and gas exploration.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 2:10:23 PM

Biogen Idec (BIIB)

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 2:04:58 PM

Here's a look at the OEX's 60-minute Keltner chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 2:03:43 PM

QQQQ's breaking the prior low here. 30 and 60 min channel support are lined up at 36.60, but unless price bounces immediately, look for those channels to reverse downward in a renewed trending move.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 1:55:17 PM

Homebuilders +1.12% and Gold Bugs +0.93% are sector winners, while Software -1.19%, Networking -1.25%, North American Telecom -1.01%, Retail -1.17%, Health Care Insurers -1.13%, Transports -1.34% are sector losers.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 1:53:21 PM

Still iffy, but I'm still not sure that the OEX is violating that bear flag. I'm looking at a five-minute Keltner chart now, and supporting lines mass just below the OEX's position. The OEX is pushing that support lower, but not violating it, making me wonder whether we might not see the OEX form a higher or equal low or else just broaden out its flag shape.

When I take a look at the 60-minute chart, though, I see the OEX appearing to turn down from the breakdown level, keeping alive that potential 564.25 downside target. So, I guess I'll have to go with the breakdown of the flag after all. Needs confirmation by a new LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 1:51:56 PM

No weakness for the CRB, up another 2.40 to 322.90 on strength in cocoa, lean hog and heating oil futures.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 1:46:49 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 1:38:29 PM

The OEX falls below 568.50, but I'm not sure I believe yet that it's falling out of the bear flag. Keltner three-minute support just below.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 1:34:08 PM

QQQQ is testing declining 7200 tick SMA support now from above after a listless bounce. There's no strength in the market today, though the huge volume (now 115M vs. 93M average) should otherwise be supportive.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 1:32:53 PM

Bottom support of the OEX's just-barely-established bear flag is being tested now, near 568.50.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 1:30:32 PM

Most Actives .... QQQQ $36.84 -0.53%, RIMM $80.22 +19.52%, GM $29.40 -12.84%, JDSU $1.81 -2.68%, SPY $119.50 -0.53%, MSFT $24.77 -0.6%, INTC $23.68 -0.83%, LU $2.82 -3.09%

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 1:25:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 1:24:08 PM

We can begin to draw a flag now for the OEX's climb as it moves up toward this morning's gap. Note that the gap is near the 38.2% retracement of the OEX's drop off the week's high. New bears wanting an entry want to see the bounce continue to look flag-ish and want to see a breakdown before a 50% retracement: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 1:21:04 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 1:15:01 PM

Ten year treasuries remain strong today, ZN futures up .4688 at 109 3/16, with TNX down 6 bps at 4.482%, 4.2 bps above the 4.44% gap support: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 1:11:39 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 1:06:08 PM

QQQQ has cleared the 7200 tick SMA and is now testing 36.90. Volume is lighter than before but is starting to pick up, with the 30 min channel showing its first uptick since the the cash open. QQQQ should be bullish on this basis above 36.80, if the bulls can hold it. OEX and ES futures are picking up as well.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 1:02:48 PM

Stepping away to hunt for Advil.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 1:02:30 PM

QQQQ update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 1:01:37 PM

Now looking for a potential zig-zagging climb on the OEX, potentially up to 571.45 or perhaps 572.70.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 1:00:14 PM

The OEX made it past the first level of 15-minute KEltner resistance, and is now challenging the second.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 12:53:45 PM

We also now have a corrective-looking bounce on the OEX's 15-minute chart. The OEX currently faces Keltner resistance near 568.91 (15-minute closing basis), with other Keltner lines arranged up to 569.90. Then those Keltner lines space out more, so that it might be easier for the OEX to rise if it can make it through the first two resistance levels. A new Fib bracket off the decline off the week's high to the week's low shows a 38.2% retracement at the 571.45 level and a 50% retracement at the 572.69 level. I'm not sure that the OEX can make it to either of those, but a nice bounce up to one and then a breakdown would be helpful to those wanting new bearish entries.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 12:49:20 PM

Is there such a thing as an advdec line's bounce looking corrective? If there is, that's how it looks.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 12:42:21 PM

QQQQ is retesting 36.80 again from a slightly higher low. The 7200 tick SMA is just above it at 36.84, with the 30 min cycle channels starting to flatten from their downslope, and a break above 36.84 should begin to generate upticks. A move above 36.90 would start a new upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 12:41:01 PM

Most Actives .... QQQQ $36.80 -0.64%, RIMM $79.33 +18.19%, JDSU $1.82 -2.15%, GM $29.12 -13.61%, SPY $119.48 -0.54%, MSFT $24.74 -0.68%, INTC $23.75 -0.58%

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 12:31:46 PM

Bears win again. Despite the inverse H&S confirmation, bears pushed the OEX back below the neckline of that inverse H&S before prices got anywhere near the 570-ish upside target. Bears should still be taking action to protect profits, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 12:20:20 PM

QQQQ is breaking the neckline and now testing 36.80 resistance, with OEX and ES breaking their previous highs on the 100 tick charts. There was huge volume on this QQQQ move, but 36.80 has yet to break. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 12:21:10 PM

The OEX confirmed a miniature inverse H&S on its one-minute chart, upside target about 570. Upside targets sometimes aren't met if they're countertrend moves, but bulls at least marshaled enough strength to confirm the formation. Neckline is at about 568.70.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 12:18:21 PM

Since about 11:25, the advdec line has been climbing. This is sometimes an important sign to watch, even if the number itself remains bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 12:17:10 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 12:06:07 PM

QQQQ's just exceeded yesterday's total volume on the last sell program of 1.3M+ shares within 100 ticks. 95.4M shares have traded so far.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 12:02:45 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 12:02:43 PM

Crude currently at $56.00, down from the $56.35 record high.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 12:01:07 PM

Darn it if the TRAN's pullback doesn't still look like a potential bull flag on the daily chart. Lots of reasons to believe that's not what it is, but it still looks like one. If that's what it is, it should be finding support soon, above 3750, and rising back through the flag-like shape again.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 11:55:57 AM

A higher low for QQQQ within the small short cycle upphase, which results ina small reverse h&s below 36.77, which could have an implied target as high as 36.90 if it can clear 36.80 resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 11:49:22 AM

SOX still sinking toward that 200-sma. Note, however, that it's still remaining at the appropriate right-shoulder level for a potential inverse H&S on its daily chart. With that potential bullish formation and the approach of the 200-sma, it may be particularly troublesome that the SOX could not hold onto earlier gains, though. These levels should have been good for a one-day bounce at least, I would have thought, even if the bounce was a tepid one. It may still come, but bulls need to mount that bounce quickly. Very quickly.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 11:47:39 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 11:40:31 AM

VIX.X 13.44 +2.2% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 11:39:53 AM

Gold is holding most of its gains, with the April contract up 2 at 443.40, 1.3 off the high, HUI +.56% at 219.92 and XAU +.77% at 101.39.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 11:38:41 AM

The VIX is at its highest level since late January.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 11:36:29 AM

The SOX remains poised just above its linked 50- and 200-sma's, less than three points below the SOX's current 419.18 level.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 11:36:14 AM

Bullish swing trade close out call alert ... closing out the two (2) eBay (EBAY April $45 Calls (XBA-DI) at the bid of $0.15.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 11:31:45 AM

The OEX is trying to steady again. The 15-minute Keltner chart now shows resistance gathering near 569.16-569.31 and then again near 570.13-570.55. Current bears would like to see continued 15-minute closes beneath one of those levels, but would be most pleased by 15-minute closes beneath the lowest of those.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 11:29:00 AM

The advdec line still declines.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 11:27:45 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 11:23:28 AM

The 30 min and 60 min channels have rolled over in trending moves, with the 7200 tick SMA resistance line declining to 36.85. The broken double bottom at 36.80 should remain immediate resistance, and the downphases will continue to trend below 36.85. New lows printing as I type. QQQQ is bearish below 36.80. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 11:20:29 AM

Bullish call option closed alert filled on the three (3) Payless Shoe PSS April $15 Calls (PSS-DC) at the bid of $0.75.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 11:20:23 AM

The Dow usually conforms fairly well to the 15-minute Keltner charts. This morning, it created a downside breakout signal on this chart, and will continue the downside breakout as long as it continues 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner lines currently at 10,682-10,685. The 30-minute Keltner chart shows the Dow resting on potential Keltner support, at 10,646, suggesting a potential steadying or bounce, but a downside breakout below that line on a 30-minute basis would have us turning to the 60-minute chart for a new downside target. That 60-minute chart has already set a potential downside target of 10,571.04, as long as the Dow continues 60-minute closes below the line currently at 10,709 and especially the one at 10,746.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 11:12:14 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 11:12:03 AM

The API confirms the DOE's rise in crude and decrease in gasoline inventories.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 11:07:29 AM

The OEX attempts to rise again. The 15-minute chart shows first resistance just above the OEX's current 568.38 position, with next resistance at 569.98-570.50, and resistance above that at 571.46. Current bears hoping to see that 565-565 downside target want to see the OEX produce 15-minute closes beneath 569.35 or at least below 569.98-570.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 11:03:34 AM

36.80 fell and is now resistance. Note the large volume today, with 66.7M QQQQ shares traded so far compared with yesterday's total volume of 93.9M.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 11:02:38 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:59:33 AM

The SOX is currently only three points above its 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:57:52 AM

The TRAN dropped below the 3/10 low, and is now bouncing back strongly to retest that level.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:55:49 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link . 36.80 has held, but the bulls need to back away from the edge now.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:55:45 AM

Sigh. The breakdown came out of a consolidation pattern, but one of such short duration that it would have required an automatic entry at the test of the 50-dma from the underside to have caught it. This obviously would have been an okay day to enter at the open, but with the SOX attempting a bounce, the Dow approaching a key level, and the OEX itself attempting to firm up, there was hope of that bounce, too. I mentioned in my first OEX-related post this morning that the bounce might not be offered and it wasn't or at least not in a way that gave a high enough bounce. Current OEX bears should be following the OEX lower with their stops. Sixty-minute Keltner channels have now reset that downside target, at an even lower level than earlier noted, at 564.51, but I'd be particularly careful in the 567-568 level, as that was one of some historical S/R over recent months.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 10:48:04 AM

Bearish covered call close out alert ... Closing out the two (2) 3M MMM Apr. $90 Calls (MNZ-DR) and buying them back at $0.50.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 10:46:39 AM

Bullish LEAP Call close out alert ... closing out the one (1) 3M MMM Jan 06 $85 Call (WMU-AQ) at the bid of $7.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:45:34 AM


10:45am CRUDE AT ALL-TIME HIGH OF $56.10, $1.20

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:43:43 AM

QQQQ update at this Link . Bulls can tolerate a successful retest of the premarket low, which would confirm a 60 min cycle bottom. If that level doesn't hold, however, then we'll be looking at a very bearish oversold trending move for the intraday cycles. A corrective bounce is more likely from these levels because of the oversold intraday levels, but 36.80 has to hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:38:37 AM

Session high for Nymex crude, +.82% at 55.5.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 10:38:14 AM

Sell Program Premium

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:37:37 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:36:50 AM

Session high for ten year bonds, TNX down 4.4 bps to 4.498%.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:35:22 AM

So far, the OEX is not making much headway in rising, but I'm still watching, hoping that it will either set up a flag-like climb or else form some kind of consolidation pattern at the bottom of the drop that can be watched for a clear break. So far, we have neither.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:35:12 AM

Crude inventories rose 2.6M barrels vs. 2M exp. Gasoline fell 2.9M barrels vs. 1M drop exp.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:33:40 AM

I'm now reading rumors that the ECB is denying that it will gradually raise rates.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:28:57 AM

Today's downside break violates rising support in place for the past 5 months on the Dow and SPX: Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:25:14 AM

Need I say that the Keltner-style bullish divergences that I was seeing on the OEX's and some other indices' 15-minute Keltner charts has been erased? The 15-minute MACD has also this morning broken through its trendline of higher lows, corroborating the bearishness.

OEX still trying to stead and form up a bounce. I'm still hoping to see a flag-like shape form, climbing toward 571-572 and then breaking down. Not sure that opportunity for a new entry will be afforded. Continue to watch the shape of any climb as well as its height.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:25:03 AM

QQQQ update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:17:57 AM

The advdec line turns up, too.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:17:00 AM

The OEX did bounce and now it's testing the 50-dma from the underside. It's really a bit too early to tell the form of the bounce, as it's a bit too disorganized as yet to characterize it, at least as seen on a three-minute chart. I would like to see a nice and orderly formation that's clearly corrective.

Three-minute Keltner resistance that looks firm now being tested, with that resistance just under the 50-dma.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 10:14:26 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:12:45 AM

Nymex crude is down .20 at 54.85. OPEC has stated that it will increase production by 500,000 bpd with a possible additional 500,000 to follow. If memory serves, however, I believe that OPEC was already pumping above capacity, and so I don't know how much this latest announcement will actually affect supply.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:10:15 AM

SOX is bouncing from above its linked 50- and 200-sma's. Hmm. Careful, bears. This looks like a bounce into a possible right shoulder on the daily chart, so bulls should make strong assumptions of too bullish a behavior here, but the bounce is strong so far.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 10:08:49 AM

VIX.X 13.27 +0.91% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.05, 12.60, Piv= 12.89, 13.44, 13.73.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 10:07:21 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has kicked off a new upphase from oversold territory, leading the 60 min cycle. Yesterday's range top at 37.15 is the number to beat to set up this bounce as more than just a dead cat. Volume is running high, with 29.5M QQQQs already traded. I believe it's going to hinge on the Dow and SPX, however, with both still flopping sideways in a weak bear flag.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 10:04:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 10:03:30 AM

The BIX dropped heavily this morning, heading down toward the February 23 low of 355.42, with the BIX LOD 357.10 so far. The BIX is just above that, and I imagine that a mighty effort will be made to draw the BIX up ahead of that February 23 low. A break through that level would look even worse for market bulls, but this downturn back through the 200-sma and -ema doesn't look too good already.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:57:28 AM

The OEX is still trying to steady, but it still remains unclear as to whether it can even mount a bounce attempt, much less get a real bounce underway. We have to watch for potential gap resistance at this morning's gap lower, with 571.93, a level within the gap, representing the 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's last three-minute high. The 38.2% retracement lies at about 571.31. New want-to-be bears do want to see a bounce and do want it to be corrective and do want it to break down before retracing much higher than 571.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 9:56:46 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just announced a 7.25B overnight repo, for a net drain of 2.25B against the expiring 9.5B from yesterday.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 9:53:45 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 9:51:27 AM

The Fed has yesterday's 9.5B overnight repo expiring today- awaiting the 10AM annoucement. Ten year bonds are back up, with TNX down 3.3 bps at 4.509% here.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:46:55 AM

It's possible the OEX is headed down toward that 566.55 downside target tentatively set by the 60-minute chart. Sadly, for new want-to-be bears, no bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:45:19 AM

Percentage Losers ... TPC $2.06 -27.46%, WAVX $0.90 -16.66%, MSTR $61.40 -13.34%, GM $29.95 -11.15%, TIVO $6.03 -10%.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:45:46 AM

The drop this morning has been precipitous enough that Keltner resistance lines are somewhat skewed. They haven't had an opportunity to catch up with the decline. That suggests that if a strong bounce gets started, it could continue, but here are some resistance levels to watch in case it's corrective as new want-to-be bears hope: first 15-minute resistance is at 571.84, next at 572.82, near historical resistance, and then near 575.40 and 576.07-577.09. So far, I'm a little ahead of myself to even talk in terms of a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:43:48 AM

Percentage Gainers ... OPNT $8.90 +24.3%, RIMM +79.76 +18.9% , SIGM $11.14 +19.24%, KERX $12.86 +13.8%, SNIC $14.87 +10.63%

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:41:11 AM

Now OEX does try to bounce from 15-minute Keltner support, but I'm not sure how successful the attempt will be. I believe a bounce will be a countertrend bounce, and the OEX did get lower than I expected it to fall this morning, but one scenario that held me back from suggesting new bearish entries was the possibility of a bounce from this Keltner support. Now, want-to-be new bears want to see it continue a bit, but look corrective.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:38:37 AM

Bearish NAKED call closed out alert in the three (3) Dow Diamonds DIA Mar. $108 Calls (DIA-CD) at $0.10.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:38:10 AM

TRAN turns lower again, soon to test the 3800 level, at 3860.59 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 9:37:51 AM

QQQQ is looking considerably perkier than its peers, with the OEX hanging near its lows and the ES futures ticking up slightly. QQQQ is persisting just below yesterday's low, ticking above it now as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:37:32 AM

Not much of a bounce yet.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:35:38 AM

The OEX has reached the Keltner support level from which it bounced Friday. It's breached that line by a little, but it did last Friday, too. Before we believe too strongly in a bounce attempt for this morning, too, need to see a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 570.14. The 50-dma is at 570.91 and those hoping for a bounce this morning--either bulls or perhaps bears wanting a bounce-and-rollover new entry--want to see the OEX above that, too.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:35:16 AM

Swing trade bullish stop alert for Hercules (HPC) $14.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 9:34:31 AM

Ten year notes have weakened from their highs, TNX now up to a 1.8 bp loss at 4.524%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 9:32:47 AM

QQQQ's continuing its bounce from the lows and now testing the large overhang at 37.00. A break above 37.03 would stall the 30 min downphase: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:32:12 AM

TRAN already trying to bounce. Amazing. It's just a tiny attempt so far, but . . . Yesterday, the TRAN broke below the rising regression channel rising from its March 10 low, retested the channel and then fell away.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:30:39 AM

The OEX opens juuust above the 50-dma.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:28:09 AM

Daimler Chrysler (DCX) indicated $45.20-$45.27 on Instinet. DXC finished yesterday's session at $46.11.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:26:27 AM

Ford (F) $11.50 -5.98% ... in sympathy with GM.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:24:25 AM

Sanmina-SCI Corp. (SANM) $5.44 ... moves up to #6 on most active after a large block of 1.149 million shares changes hands at $5.44. SANM finished yesterday's trade at $5.44.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:23:00 AM

Novell (NOVL) $5.28 .... jumps to #5 on this morning's pre-market most active after a large block of 1.276 million shares crosses the wire at $5.28. NOVL finished yesterday's trade at $5.28.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:21:04 AM

Brocade Communications (BRCD) moves to #3 on most active as large block of 1.788 crosses the wire at $5.85. Shares of BRCD finished yesterday's trade at $5.85. Note: There has been speculation that Cisco Systems (CSCO) will make a large acquisition in 2005, with BRCD being named as a possible target.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 9:18:12 AM






Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 9:17:10 AM

The OEX is definitely in a sell-the-rallies mode. Is a rally likely to give bears a new entry? The OEX finished on the day's low, and sometimes there's follow-through to the downside after such a finish, a conclusion backed up by the current level of the futures, but the OEX did end the day on both 15-minute and 60-minute potential Keltner support near 572. It actually ended the day just below a breakdown level on the 15-minute chart, resetting a potential downside target of 570.44, suggesting that test of the 50-dma near 571 might be in the works. This is one of those make-it-or-break-it points for the OEX, but it's possible that last-minute selling pressure just overran the downside target. A 60-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 572.07 resets a new potential downside target of 565.

Something else did get confirmed Tuesday, however. Link Whether or not any downside target set as a result could ever be met probably has a lot to do with what happens with other indices, such as the SOX's upcoming test of its 200-sma at 417.37. One scenario that I could see unfolding this morning would be a decline to the 570-571 level, a bounce back up to 573.50-575 and then a rollover from there. Current bears should follow the OEX lower with stops this morning, and be prepared to protect profits in that 570-571 area, if touched. Ahead of a look at the internals this morning and just ahead of a test of 570-571, it's going to be difficult to suggest new bearish entries at the open, however, even with that H&S neckline break shown above. I'd rather wait for a retest of the neckline and see how matters are looking then, but traders should realize that retest might not be offered.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:16:47 AM

General Motors (GM) $29.34 -12.98% ... marked lower after warning that it will most likely lose $1.50 a share (ex-items) and lowered full year guidance to a profit of $1 to $2 per share from $4 to $5 per share. GM cited lower production volumes as well as a poor sales mix for its outlook.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:12:57 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $81.47 +21.4% ... called higher after agreeing to pay $450 million to end litigation that had threatened its ability to produce the BlackBerry communicator. Under the settlement pact with NTP Inc., RIM received the "unfettered right" to develop, sell and sublicense the wireless technology.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:08:56 AM

Pre-market most actives ... RIMM $81.08 +20.8%, QQQQ $36.83 -0.56%, MCIP $24.00 -0.12%, GM $29.41 -12.7%, SPY $119.63 -0.42%, TIVO $6.35 -5.22%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 9:08:09 AM

QQQQ has broken through all lower intraday channels, from short cycle to 60 min, currently printing a low to 36.80. It was based on a large sell program of nearly 1.4M shares within 100 ticks- at least some support should kick in here based on the keltner breach.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:03:04 AM

NDX stocks that were sold the most during sell programs on Tuesday were AMZN, DELL, FLEX, CECO, LVLT, JNPR, FAST, ESRX, CHKP, TEVA, ATYT, BRCM, NTAP, MSFT, NVLS, LRCX, GRMN, INTC, KLAC, MCHP and XRAY.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 9:00:37 AM

OEX stocks that were sold the most during sell programs on Tuesday were GM, BAX, WMT, KO, DELL, BMY, AIG, VZ, MSFT, TXN, PEP, TYC, INTC, BAC, SLB and SBC.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 8:57:12 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.86 and set for program selling at $+3.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 8:55:03 AM

The current account data was not good- the Q4 number was a new record, the Q4 debt-to-GDP ratio was a new record, the 2004 debt-to-GDP ratio was a new record, and the 2004 current account deficit was a new record. And, it hit as traders were still digesting the GM warning.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 8:53:01 AM

QQQQ's finally broken 37.00, springing down to a 36.93 low. The 30 and 60 min channels are only beginning to downtick on the light premarket volume, with support still in the 36.90 area- the 30 min channel has edged down to 36.88.

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 8:48:21 AM

Swing trade bullish call close out alert ... I will be looking to close out the three (3) Payless Shoe PSS April $15 Calls (PSS-DC)

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2005 8:45:09 AM

Swing trade naked call close out alert ... I will be looking to close out the three (3) Dow Diamond DIA Mar. $108 Calls (DIA-CD) naked calls. DIA $107.27 pre-market.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 8:35:25 AM

And a session high for euro futrues at 1.343.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 8:33:54 AM

Ten year bonds are up, TNX down 4 bps to 4.502%, with April gold up 1.90 at 443.30. Equities are hitting new lows across the board, ES testing 1200, NQ 1511.5, QQQQ 37.02.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 8:31:05 AM










Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 8:24:48 AM



GM has cut its EPS target for the quarter from flat-to-positive to a -$1.50 loss, and for the year from $4-$5 per share to $1-$2 per share. The company revised its expected cashflow from +$2B for the year to -$2B.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/16/2005 7:49:14 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 120.1.75, NQ 1514, YM 10762 and QQQQ +.03 at 37.07. Gold is up 1.80 ato 443.20, silver +.083 to 7.484, ten year notes up .0156 at 108 47/64, and crude oil is down .30 at 54.75.

We await the 8:30 release of the Q4 current account, est. -183.B, Housing starts and building permits for February, est. 2.03M and 2.07M respectively, then at 9:15, Industrial production and capacity utilization, est. .4% and 79.2%.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2005 7:19:22 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei started out weak but recovered in the mid-afternoon, with techs remaining weak. Other Asian markets were mixed, but China's Shanghai Composite dropped after yet another report showing that the superheated economy isn't cooling fast enough. European markets started out weak and remain weak, while our futures are modestly higher. To those watching the dollar, the Ukraine did confirm that it will no longer peg its currency to the dollar, a development that had been rumored yesterday. This is seen as favoring the euro over the dollar. As of 7:14 EST, gold had climbed $1.30, and crude had fallen $0.39 to $54.66. During the overnight session, Kuwait reportedly confirmed that OPEC would increase production by 500,000 barrels. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Bank of Japan's Fukui gave a cautiously upbeat overview of the economy. Although he feels that the economy might currently be plateauing and that oil prices should be watched, he believes that generally good January data and the economic mechanisms in place will promote recovery.

Techs drove the Nikkei lower during the morning and early part of the afternoon session. By mid-afternoon, the Nikkei had turned positive again, and it closed higher by 52.09 points or 0.44%, at 11,873.18. Merrill Lynch reported that chipmakers were too expensive, contributing to that tech weakness, but the addition of Yahoo Japan to the Nikkei 225 this month benefited that stock and other telecommunications stocks during early trading. Other early influences included a plan by Fuji Television network to increase its dividend by more than four times, benefiting that stock. Although I could not locate an accurate time stamp for Fukui's discussion, it appeared to come during the afternoon, making it possible that his update helped sentiment, as some equities improved about that time. Also, in a government upgrading of its view on the economy, the government raised its view for industrial production but did downgrade its view on corporate profits and capital expenditures, CNBC Europe reported this morning.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more closing higher than lower. The Taiwan Weighted closed higher by 0.15%, and South Korea's Kospi closed flat. Singapore's Straits Times gained 0.26%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.11%. An economic release in China showed that in January, investments in China's fixed assets such as factories and roads increased 24.5% over the year-ago level. Yesterday, Premier Wen Jiabao warned that the government must remain vigilant to curb industrial expansion. Later in the night last night, China increased the down payment ratio for mortgage loans to 30% from the previous 20%, and also reduced the interest rate for bank reserves. The interest-rate reduction was a surprise, but the increase in the down payment ratio should reduce bad loans. Some measuring the impact of both changes say that the intention is to slow down the housing market and thus produce a slowing of the economy through the back door, according to one source. Interesting tactic, if it works. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.07%.

European markets showed weakness at the open, with eight ex-dividend stocks weighing on the FTSE 100. The eurozone's final February CPI number was revised up to 2.1% year over year from the initial 2.0% figure. Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the core inflation rate declined to 1.4% from the previous 1.6% year-over-year gain. This again breaches the Stability Pact's target. The ECB's Trichet noted today, too, that internal demand picks up. Other economic developments include an ACEA trade association release that noted that Western European auto sales declined 3.1% in February. BMW exacerbated the dour sentiment by cautioning that currency issues could negatively impact its earnings. I'm also reading reports I haven't yet been able to confirm that the ECB has reported that it feels gradual rate hikes are needed, depending on future data releases, and that rates are currently below a level that would be considered neutral.

In stock-specific news, Roche received two upgrades, from CSFB and Smith Barney, after yesterday's cheering news about Phase II trials in one of its drugs, and it stayed steady, outperforming other stocks on the Swiss bourse. Schering wasn't so lucky, however, declining after speculation that a generic replacement for one of its drugs had begun the process for approval when its manufacturer filed an application with the FDA.

As of 7:04 EST, the FTSE 100 has fallen 35 points or 0.70%, to 4,965.20. The CAC 40 had fallen 16.17 points or 0.40%, to 4,061.57. The DAX had fallen 15.18 points or 0.35%, to 4,372.51.

Tab Gilles : 3/16/2005 6:48:45 AM

World Spot Gold 06:42AM Bid$441.20/ Ask $ 441.90, +1.20, +0.27% EUR/USD hourly chart showing bullish divergence. Link

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