Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 3/17/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 8:55:32 PM

Just noting that February's SEMI book-to-bill number was 0.78. Yikes. Same as January's. Here's the link: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 7:31:03 PM

Today I did notice a slight bid to the AUG $10 Puts, even though the stock was rising. Here's the option chain sorted by today's volume. Not a lot of activity, and everything evenly matched. I do wonder though if the $7.5 Put was selling, with a May $5 put hedge? That doesn't really make sense considering time span. Could be quarterly related, but again... not a lot of volume. Directional play should the reverse h/s fail? Adelphia cratered on my birthday. Maybe GLW will too! Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 7:03:38 PM

Pressure cooker chart of the week.... at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 6:37:06 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 6:06:31 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 5:54:52 PM

Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 5:44:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... no trades were profiled today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 5:20:46 PM

Barn burner in Tucson, Arizona. Utep 54, Utah 54. After-hours trade should be thin as traders rush home to catch the NCAA first round. May have been thin today because of tournament play.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 4:54:46 PM

Levell II ... what to watch out for. Now... one "trick," and a dirty one at that that a trader will always want to be alert to is this. I do it from time to time in my own trading to try and INFLUENCE another trader to help me out. One thing a day trader needs to be cognizant of is this. While I saw CINN show a BIG bid as USEG pulled back to $4.80 (at around 12:20 PM EST), sometimes that BID will be a fake out. He/she may be trying to INFLUENCE other retail traders like you and I to scramble and start taking offers with the thought of "oooo, big buyer at the bid." It is often a bullish trader's "best guess" that he/she is a buyer at the bid. You know you've been TRICKED when the bid suddenly goes away and the stock starts falling as momentum buyers turn to sellers when the "big bid" they thought they were front running goes away. That's why it can be VERY HELPFUL to study your Level II and trade light when first getting in a trade. Once you THINK you've got the other guy figured out and the stock acts like you think it would, when you get more aggressive. Hopefully you got a little "Shamrock green" in your account today. Happy St. Patrick's Day!

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 4:34:26 PM

Levell II ... here an Ameritrade's NASDAQ Level II capture of USEG. These are the guys/gals/computers that provide bulk of liquidity to you and I. If I'm a Schwab client, I'm probably getting my order routed through them (Schwab Capital Markets). Link Once you start monitoring your stock and trying to figure out who is doing what (are they a buyer, a seller, or really not serious about anything, just providing liquidity) you looking at where stock is trading. For instance, the above link would have Archipelago "saying" he is a buyer for 100 shares at the bid of $5.08. Now... you don't need to be a brain surgeon to begin to think he/she is a bigger buyer if you start seeing 1,000 shares lots hitting his bid, but he sits there and takes in 10 lots even though he says he is only good for 100 shares. See him showing 300 shares on the offer at $5.10. Sometimes I'll hit his offer at $5.10 to get a feel for "how good are you" and "what are you doing?" If he disappears on 300 shares, then I get the feeling he's and eager buyer, perhaps trying to scare some retail traders into selling to his bid at $5.08. (I was this with CINN today). OK... so once you start getting a feel for things, flip over to another Level II and Instinet. Here's the Ameritrade Level II of Instinet. This is where "standing orders" will show up, and where traders can unknowingly "tip their hand" if they aren't careful. Link What I like to do is flip back and forth from NASDAQ Level II to Instinet. It's the CHANGES on Instinet that will often be a tip as to what another RETAIL trader like you and I are planning on doing. If you and I were playing a game of chess, I and I told you what my next 5 moves were going to be, do you think I could beat you in a game of chess? Heck no! It was perhaps here that our SCHB friend tipped his hand today and let us know he/she was a short. Maybe he/she was thinking... "doji" after a 20% gain. Surely I can short 5,000 shares and get it back down to $4.60. What I thought I saw today was SCHB shorting at $5.00-$4.95. The reason I thought this was that it wasn't until USEG traded back below $4.87 that suddenly there was 5,000 shares suddenly appear at $5.01 on INET. Hmmmm..... ya-think a buch of up-ticks at $5.00 down to $4.90 with a sudden $5.01 appearing on INET might not be a retail short setting his/her stop? Watch CINN too as a lot of retail trade goes through that ECN. Day trading is very much like a game of chess. You're trying to figure out what you opponent is doing, what his/her position is (are they attacking, playing defensive, are they a bull, or a bear, where will they turn from attack to defense, or defense to attack?). Once you THINK you know what their position is, especially if they've tipped their hand, thats when you want to attack their strategy, get them to capitulate. Inflict as much pain on them as you can. It is a wonderful feeling when YOU'RE RIGHT and THEY'RE WRONG and you get them to admit it right at YOUR TARGET.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 4:02:39 PM

According to UCLA's annual Anderson Forecast, the U.S. could see a recession as early as next year, a release earlier in the week noted. What will prevent that happening? Only a dramatic rise in capital spending or exports. The group did note the recent uptick in exports and found that development at least hopeful. The housing sector could be the first to weaken, perhaps as early as the second half of this year. This was reported on one forex news site.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 3:55:59 PM

I've been scanning for economic releases in the overnight session. So far, I see February's Public Sector Net Borrowing, M4 Money Supply, and M4 Sterling Lending numbers for the U.K. and not much else.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 3:51:17 PM

Personal Intra-day trade blotter of trades I ran in my personal account. USEG trades might help a trader. I used Level II to try and sniff out who was a buyer/sell and their position intra-day too, but trader can perhaps see how you can use your 5-MRT technique to devise your strategy. Blotter at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 3:45:32 PM

QQQQ is set up with a stalling 30 min cycle within a rising 60 min cycle, all of which is occurring within a daily cycle downphase. Despite several tests since yesterday, 36.88 resistance has not broken, and in fact entire zone to 37.00 looks like one big confluence zone. A high volume break above the session high would suggest an implied reverse h&s target as high as 37.30, but today's bounce has been weak compared with yesterday's high volume drop. There remains more gas in the 60 min cycle upphase, but bulls will need to hold above the 37.60 level, below which it would reverse early.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 3:47:41 PM

The TRAN couldn't manage the breakout. Not good news, but how much is weakness at not being able to confirm the formations, how much is strength in even trying to set them up, and how much is related to the pin-them-to-the-numbers activities of an opex Thursday? Doesn't it seem strange that so many indices are showing the same patterns? That probably means that whatever is being done today or not quite accomplished today, it's likely being done with baskets of stocks.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 3:38:12 PM

The TRAN inches just above the neckline for its inverse H&S, but it's really just testing it now. Midchannel 15-minute Keltner resistance is just above 3800, so the TRAN is going to slam into that soon after breaking above the neckline. The TRAN is at 3791.07 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 3:27:29 PM

The TRAN still appears to be leading the way into a test of the neckline for the various indices, and it's still testing. Hasn't broken above it yet. I still see Keltner resistance for the TRAN just above 3800 even if it does break above the neckline, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 3:21:25 PM

The cash bond market has closed, with TNX down 4.8 bps at 4.47%, a 1.06% decline for the day. QQQQ continues to struggle below the 36.85-.85 confluence/neckline, with 7200 tick SMA support up to 36.80. The 30 min channel is flat within the rising 60 min cycle.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 3:21:22 PM

TRAN testing the neckline of its inverse H&S again.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 3:17:17 PM

OEX falling back into the gap.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 3:15:33 PM

RIMM $81.00 +2.6% and BLUE #4 ($80.86).

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 3:13:30 PM

As it did once earlier today, the OEX just jumped above the five-minute 100/130-ema's. The previous time, it was not able to sustain the breakout. Not sure whether it will this time or not. Those averages are currently at 568.78 and 569.10, respectively. They were higher earlier today when the OEX gapped higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 3:11:48 PM

QQQQ intraday chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 3:11:53 PM

You little bugger .... RIMM $80.45 after "pullback" to $80.00

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 3:10:57 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 3:06:12 PM

I lied. I said earlier today that I expected a push up toward 570-571, then altered that to 569.80, which did almost get hit. Then I said I expected a drop back to the 567-568 zone, which did happen. But then I said that was when we would figure out what was likely to happen next, when we saw whether the OEX fell back through the support or climbed from it. Well, the OEX did all that I thought and now we don't know anything. The 15-minute Keltner chart doesn't clarify things, either, as its evidence is ambiguous. I did say that I didn't consider this a tradable day for OEX options traders, and I didn't lie about that.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 3:02:16 PM

03:00 Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 2:59:33 PM

Research in Motion $80.34 +1.74% ... I'm looking at some Apr. $80 Calls on a pullback near $79.77. Might get $81.73 by today's close. I traded the Apr. $80 Puts rather actively yesterday (5-10 contracts for $0.20 scalps) with mixed results. $80.00 seemed like a peg point. If RIMM can break above $81.00 today, could be a mover to the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 2:55:00 PM

IB reports QQQQ volume at 83.5M shares so far, a little over half of yesterday's 159.8M shares and approaching the ADV of 92.9M. Large volume tends to be supportive, and while the indices haven't dropped today, the bounce so far is corrective and uninspiring. If this is the best the bulls can do, the next 30 and 60 min downphases could be doozies.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 2:52:48 PM

So far, not seeing any of the indices I'm watching pushing above the necklines of their inverse H&S's. Out of the SPX, Dow, OEX, SOX, BIX, RLX and TRAN, the TRAN is the closest. The BIX's and RLX's versions require a lot of imagination to even call them potential inverse H&S's. Bulls need to get this done.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 2:44:35 PM

TRAN just below the neckline level for its inverse H&S.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 2:32:16 PM

Hmmmm.... Link why would anyone in their right mind be selling Mar $37 puts?

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 2:31:09 PM

Gap support held again, with TNX up to a 6.2 bp loss at 4.456%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 2:33:45 PM

QQQQ intraday update at this Link . The 36.85-.88 is looking increasingly like a reverse h&s neckline.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 2:24:15 PM

VXN.X 18.45 -2.94% ....

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 2:23:48 PM

QQQQ most actives ... Mar $37 Put 87,004:278,071 , Apr $36 Put 39,279:127,912 , Mar $37 Call 30,762:116,536.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 2:21:06 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 2:20:10 PM

No surprise: the TRAN is also at the appropriate right-shoulder level, pausing there. No strong evidence of continued support at that level, though, so the TRAN is going to have to steady off without a lot of Keltner-style support beneath it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 2:21:17 PM

Jonathan ... you seeing any selling of $37 puts today? QQQQ $36.74 here.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 2:17:47 PM

The OEX is now at the appropriate right-shoulder level. Still.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 2:14:32 PM

The 30 min cycle looks to be rolling over early from its upphase, opposed to the 60 min cycle upphase which is still trying to get started. A break through the session lows would set up today's bounce as a weak bear flag and bode very ill for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 2:13:45 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 2:10:45 PM

If the OEX drops much further, it will invalidate the potential inverse H&S, but watch for a potential double-bottom formation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 2:03:29 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 2:02:58 PM

TNX is sitting on gap support here at 4.44% Link , ticking below it as I type, TNX -8 bps at 4.438%. I'm surprised that equities aren't firmer here with yields dropping. QQQQ is testing 36.70 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 2:04:43 PM

USEG session high has been $5.54.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:54:06 PM

Day Trader's Chart of USEG at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:52:21 PM

Dump some here at $5.48

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 1:46:36 PM

QQQQ's losing the 7200 tick SMA here, with the 30 min cycle channel ticking down. Bears need to see a break of 36.65 to kick off a new downphase.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 1:43:52 PM

The TRAN is moving up to test its neckline for its version of the inverse H&S that are being seen now on many indices' 15-minute charts. The TRAN's neckline looks to be at about 3789, but the TRAN will then soon fact mid-channel Keltner resistance at 3804-3805, also near expected round number S/R. Lots of signs that some of these inverse H&S's might have difficulty meeting their upside targets, if they do manage to confirm, so there's still a lot of uncertainty about bounce-ability today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:35:37 PM

USEG $5.19 BLUE #8

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 1:35:04 PM

The OEX is dropping back toward 568 now, having dipped to 568.27 during the last 15-minute period. Here's where we see whether the bulls are able to pull it all together to produce and confirm that potential inverse H&S or perhaps an equal or higher low. Looking at the 15-minute chart, the supporting lines don't yet converge enough that it's possible to point to one level or the other and say that's going to be strong support. So, it's all a bit iffy as to whether support will hold or not. Remember that I'm not suggesting upside plays today, or any plays, as it's been my expectation that we'd see either a countertrend bounce or else consolidation that could take the form of a quickly reversed dip and/or quickly reversed rise in choppy patterns.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 1:33:38 PM

The agriculturals are dragging on the CRB for a change, with cotton, soybeans and corn futures the bottom 3 in the index, CRB -2.36 at 320.06.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:27:11 PM

01:25 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:24:05 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 1:20:56 PM

Potential inverse H&S's showing up now on many indices' 15-minute charts. Now we get to see whether the bulls can carry through their intentions and send the indices first through their necklines and then toward their upside targets. I wouldn't count on those upside targets being met even if the formations are confirmed. May be, and might even be exceeded, but these are countertrend plays.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 1:19:17 PM

QQQQ intraday chart update at this Link with QQQQ breaking below 7200 tick SMA support for the first time since 10AM.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 1:17:44 PM

Because the Dow often adheres quite well to the 15-minute nested Keltner chart's S/R, I thought I'd take a look. This won't be a big surprise because it's happening as I type, but that chart showed it likely that the Dow would retreat to 10,619.34-10,625.24. Support is trying to firm there. It looks as if it could hold the Dow, but it's not firm enough to say for sure.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 1:16:05 PM

On the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, supporting lines are beginning to fan out somewhat, which sometimes happens as support softens.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:09:43 PM

Cincinnati looks a little short himself. Showed up at $4.82 and has been rather eager buyer last 30-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:08:17 PM

USEG $5.01 ... bidding $5.03

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 1:07:18 PM

Nymex crude is up .375 here at 56.825. April gold is back down to 438.70, HUI -.48% at 219.15, XAU -.25% at 101.2.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:06:09 PM

Swchwab ... you're done/short at $4.90 and I think I see your stop at $5.01.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 1:03:32 PM

Jonathan, I will also have a Traders Corner article for this weekend's newsletter, describing how I use Keltner channels to set upside or downside targets. When our archived materials are available again, an article from last year described nested Keltner channels and some of their uses. (See Jonathan's 12:52 post.)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 1:02:48 PM

QQQQ update at this Link coming in for a retest of 7200 tick SMA support at 36.77.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 1:03:26 PM

GeoResources (GEOI) $10.50 +16.40% ... showing up as a percentage gainer again today. BIG 5-mrt today with some volume above BLUE #1 ($10.13)

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 12:56:06 PM

The OEX is still finding support on 15-minute closes at a Keltner line currently at 568.88, but now tests 15-minute Keltner resistance. The gap higher did not hold. That 15-minute resistance lies from 569.46-569.64 and the OEX has been trying to nudge it higher without really being able to break through it. If it can't break through, it will eventually pull back to regroup, perhaps to the 567-568 level that I've anticipated might be hit again.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 12:52:21 PM

I really appreciate the chart info you give. I want to learn them so I can spot changes etc. I would like more info about the keltner the wave and anything else you think would help us learn more. You folks are great.

Thanks, Regan. Jane Fox has written an article on this subject at this Link and I highly recommend it. I use a combination of oscillators in the NQ futures and QQQQ 30 minute charts to gauge the overbought/oversold status of the 30 min cycle, and the keltner channels on my intraday tick charts to determine the overbought/oversold levels within that cycle. Generally, the direction of the 7200 tick SMA confirms the direction of the 30 min cycle.

Keltner bands are an convenient way to approximate J.M. Hurst's method of cycle timing. By tracking simultaneous cycles of different lengths, we can generate "nested" channels (ie the short cycle within the 30 min cycle within the 60 min cycle on my intraday charts). An analogy I use is of a small narrow pipe (short cycle) within a wider one (30 min cycle) within the widest (60 min channel).

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 12:44:45 PM

Not sure the attempted breakout will hold today. I suspect the words "not sure" might be used a lot today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 12:44:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 12:38:16 PM

QQQQ intraday chart update at this Link shows another failed attempt to clear upside confluence. Despite the 30 and 60 min channel upphases, the move is on lighter volume than yesterday and is so far corrective. 36.95-37.00 is next resistance if the bulls can clear 37.88, but they're advancing slowly and in small moves, with the 30 min cycle upphase now past the half-way point in its range.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 12:36:23 PM

Maybe the OEX will reach that 570-571 level after all? It's gapped on the five-minute charts, testing historical and Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 12:31:26 PM

Seabulk Intl. (SBLK) $21.00 +25.52% ... marine transporter being bought by Seacor in $1 billion deal.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 12:28:25 PM

Most actives ... QQQQ $36.82 +0.54%, JDSU $1.77 -0.56%, EGY $4.09 -4.21%, TOY $26.06 +5.2%, SPY $119.51 +0.32%, INTC $23.44 -0.38%, LU $2.89 +2.84%

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 12:27:47 PM

So far, the OEX still doesn't fall back far, and a look at 3-, 5- and 7-minute nested Keltner channel charts give conflicting information. A climb looks most likely over the very short term on the 3- and 7-minute charts, an almost certain decline on the 5-minute. This mixture of outlooks is just more evidence of what a difficult day it might be to trade OEX options.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 12:19:48 PM

Okay, so here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart currently shows: The OEX has now erased its breakdown signal on that chart, but hasn't yet tested the former resistance to see if it holds as support. That former resistance/possible support now gathers from 567.01-567.85, so this would be an appropriate level to which the OEX might now pull back, a la the scenario that I've been proposing this morning. The OEX currently faces 15-minute Keltner resistance from 569.33-569.46, a little lower than I expected the OEX to encounter that resistance. I don't think we'll know what's what for the day until we see that retest of the former resistance . . . or perhaps a zoom higher. Either could happen in this day I've always thought would be difficult if not impossible to trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 12:16:55 PM

QQQQ update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 12:14:32 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 12:10:25 PM

Ten year treasuries are up following the Philly Fed, TNX testing 4.44% support again.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 12:10:07 PM

Not much of a pullback just yet. Evidence that all sellers have sold? I wouldn't go that far yet, but I'm surprised that there's not more of a reaction.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 12:06:19 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/17/2005 12:05:38 PM

TWX chart Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 12:04:25 PM

The OEX has been flattening a little lower than I expected it to flatten. I had thought it might run up to 569.80-571 (see my 11:18 and previous posts) before flattening and rolling down. I'd thought it then might roll down toward 567.80-568.00 before we figured out what the real tenor for the day would be. The Philly Fed number may have provided the impetus to push it back toward 568.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 12:02:12 PM

Thanks, Jonathan, for the Philly Fed information.

Tab Gilles : 3/17/2005 12:06:02 PM

TWX TIME WARNER Both the Viacom news and Tuesday, Ted Leonsis, vice chairman of AOL, announced that the company is likely to exceed the 20% to 25% growth that most analysts expect for the U.S. online ad industry, are boosting TWX stock. Nice GAP up today.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 12:02:34 PM

Headlines:

12:00pm U.S. MARCH PHILLY FED 11.4 VS. 23.9 IN FEB.

12:00pm U.S. MARCH PHILLY FED AT 20-MONTH LOW

12:01pm U.S. MARCH PHILLY FED NEW ORDERS 13.2 VS. 11.7

12:02pm U.S. MARCH PHILLY FED EMPLOYMENT 10.1 VS. 12.3

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 12:01:24 PM

Philly Fed 11.4 vs. 20 exp.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 12:00:11 PM

Jonathan usually receives the economic numbers before the rest of us, but we may know whether that number is a disappointment or upside surprise by market reaction, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 11:56:26 AM

TNX tested gap support at 4.44% this AM, currently down 5.4 bps at 4.464%. I doubt if the Philly Fed could be bullish enough to drill the TNX down through 4.44% from here, but we'll find out in the coming minutes. Yield bulls/bond bears need a break back above 4.48% resistance. Link

Tab Gilles : 3/17/2005 11:54:04 AM

$NDX Finding support at 200-ma. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 11:53:17 AM

Philly Fed data in a few minutes, at noon.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 11:46:20 AM

QQQQ intraday chart updated at this Link with QQQQ returning to retest the 37.85-.88 from a higher low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 11:36:55 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 11:35:32 AM

GE hasn't turned positive today. It has bounced off its low, but it's still off its own HOD and below yesterday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 11:31:02 AM

Crude Oil $56.65 +0.33% (30-minute interval) ... reversing lower

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 11:29:40 AM

Check this out, maybe it happens today. Pull up your chart of Altair Nanotech (ALTI) and take a "fitted" 38.2% retracement from that 02/10/05 daily high low. Stock hit 61.8% retracement the following day and so far, that's been "the high." Now do the same with USEG, but from that VERY SIMILAR 02/25/05 day range. 61.8% result is $6.25. Never know for sure, but something I'm looking at.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 11:25:35 AM

QQQQ has stalled at the 36.85-.88 level, colliding with the upturning channel bands. This is also a confluence zone, and a possible reverse h&s neckline. QQQQ is bullish on an intraday cycle basis above 36.70, while the first sign of trouble for bulls will be a break of 36.77 support, which would violate the short cycle upphase: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 11:23:42 AM

Many indices attempt a bounce from the 2/22 and 2/23 lows, and the RLX is one of those. I'm wondering if the RLX won't eventually be drawn back into a retest of its 200-sma and -ema's, at 420.86 and 423.54, but for now, it's producing a tepid bounce. This is an index that needs to hold gains if the OEX is to hold its gains.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 11:21:36 AM

U.S. Energy Systems (USEY) $1.14 +2.70% ... haven't figured this one out though. Sympathy with USEG? Not sure.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 11:22:09 AM

Bidder up! in USEG $5.10 +24.69% ... Got a "lucky" St. Patricks fill at $4.80.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 11:19:52 AM

Bidder up! in PHF at $9.16. (Disclosure: I currently own a bullish position in PHF)

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 11:18:05 AM

Still watching for a climb to the 570-571 level, but perhaps only to 569.80 and then a potential pullback, perhaps to 568 or so, before we know what's really going to happen.

Tab Gilles : 3/17/2005 11:11:15 AM

Linda...in reference to your 11:06 AM post. Here's a link, Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 11:09:04 AM

QQQQ intraday chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 11:06:38 AM

Not sure whether someone has already mentioned this or not, but traders should be aware that the March Philadelphia Fed number will be released at noon, I believe.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 11:04:29 AM

Advdec line still climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 11:04:29 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 11:00:04 AM

The OEX is rising to test 60-minute Keltner resistance, at 568.80-569.00. Those hoping for a bounce want to see the OEX produce 60-minute closes above this resistance. I'm wondering about that earlier scenario--a push up to 570-571 and slight pullback from there, perhaps to the 568 level, before the morning's direction is finally determined.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:59:53 AM

Nymex crude is down to 56.65, +.20 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:57:29 AM

QQQQ's bouncing from the 7200 tick SMA, printing a session high as I type. Next ressitance is at the 36.85 channel tops, but those levels should rise as price holds above the 36.65 SMA line.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 11:00:02 AM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $4.69 +14.66% ... uranium miner is what I think brings speculators to table in recent months.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 10:51:44 AM

Toys R Us (TOY) $26.10 +5.36% ... confirms today that it has agreed to by acquired for about $5.75 billion by Bain Capital LLC, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Company, and Vornado Realty Trust. The deal values TOY at $26.75 a share.

Tab Gilles : 3/17/2005 10:48:49 AM

$GOX, $USD Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 10:47:31 AM

I'm still not seeing anything that convinces me that today will be a great day for trading OEX options. It may turn out to be for adept scalpers, but the action is just the kind I thought it would be: looking bullish one moment, bearish the next, and markets not really moving the way you'd expect in response. Difficult to make money in that kind of market. So far, the OEX still holds above 567, but it's certainly not doing much climbing and the climbing it's doing is beginning to look like just another bear flag. Those still in bearish plays want to see 60-minute closes below the Keltner lines currently at 568.74-569.00 to keep alive the potential downside target, now at 563.71. That target becomes more questionable on 60-minute closes above that next 60-minute resistance zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:44:11 AM

QQQQ has rolled back to the 36.70 resistance-turned-support, but the bounce is looking and feeling very corrective so far. Not a lot of conviction from the bulls so far off these oversold intraday cycles: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 10:35:38 AM

The advdec line is climbing now. The BIX is bouncing back to 2/22 and 2/23 lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:34:53 AM

QQQQ chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 10:33:17 AM

Nipping away at some "junk bonds" from the long side in my IRA today. PHF $9.16 -0.10% declared $0.075 monthly dividend for the month ending March 31. Dividend payable on April 11 to shareholders of record on March 31. Ex-date is March 29.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:27:11 AM

TNX has firmed from the lows, currently down 5.4 bps at 4.464%, ditto gold at 438.90, off a low of 437.70.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 10:26:54 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 10:26:02 AM

BIX trying to bounce back above the 2/22 and 2/23 lows.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 10:25:22 AM

OEX still holding above 567.

Tab Gilles : 3/17/2005 10:24:42 AM

GOLD 10:19AM Bid $437.90/ Ask $438.40, -5.20, -1.17%, Low $436.60/ High $ 442.60

$GOX; EUR/USD hourly Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:23:38 AM

Session highs for QQQQ at 36.74 and NQ at 1500, breaking previous highs. Look for 36.70 support holding to confirm a new 30 min channel upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 10:21:06 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 10:18:25 AM

Just noticed that the BIX has dropped below its 2/22 2/23 levels. Not good news for bulls. It hasn't dropped far below, but the 350 zone looks like next strong support. It's at 354.61 as I type. Would be better for those hoping for at least a countertrend bounce in the markets today for the BIX to pull up again.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 10:15:36 AM

OEX investors still trying desperately to hold it above that 567 historical support/resistance level.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 10:12:13 AM

VIX.X 13.34 -0.18% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.89, 13.22, Piv= 13.52, 13.85, 14.14.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:08:50 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 10:05:48 AM

Leading indicators didn't send the OEX any higher, for sure. This is maintaining the OEX's 15-minute breakdown signal, so that I'm turning to the 60-minute chart again to look at targets. The 60-minute downside target of 563.75 is still potentially possible, but remember that the OEX is currently testing 2/22 and daily 100/130-ema support, so it's possible that the target won't be met. I thought it possible that we could see consolidation today that consisted of a push lower and a push higher, but just thought that the first push might be to the upside. I still don't see this as a great trading day. If you carried a bearish play overnight, you don't have strong reason to exit just yet, but I'd still be very cautious and protective of my profits. Watch the advdec line's trajectory today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 10:04:45 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 10:03:13 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,186.91, DIA $106.10, QQQQ $36.56

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:01:47 AM

Headlines:

10:00am U.S. FEB 5 OF 10 LEADING INDICATORS POSITIVE

10:00am U.S. FEB. COINCIDENT INDICATORS UP 0.4%

10:00am U.S. FEB. LEADING INDICATORS UP 0.1% AS EXPECTED

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 10:01:19 AM

General Motors (GM) $28.09 -3.13% ... now takes over top spot of percentage losers as fallout from yesterday's lower of guidance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:00:53 AM

30 and 60 min channel support currently line up at QQQQ 36.45: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 10:00:17 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $61.58 -2.09% ... percentage loser among Dow Industrials components. Company confirming it will delay 10-K filing for at least 15 days past the due date. The move was expected after long-time CEO Hank Greenberg was ousted from his position earlier this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 10:00:11 AM

Session low for OEX and ES futures, joining the Dow. QQQQ didn't match its premarket low but is a few cents away.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 9:59:28 AM

The OEX was not able to produce that 15-minute close above the massed Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, but rather closed at that resistance. During this 15-minute period, it's clinging to it again. The bulls had better get a bounce mounted soon, as Leading Indicators are released, or bears will be emboldened.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 9:57:23 AM

Central Freight Lines (CENF) $4.96 -27% ... downgraded at Bear Stearns and Legg Mason after weak Q4 results.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 9:55:53 AM

Digital River (DRIV) $34.90 +15.21% ... boosting Q1 outlook.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 9:54:19 AM

All the writers do this from time to time, but I'm going to remind you once again: Remember to have hard stops on all your plays, unless they're options plays that you intended to let run, knowing that you've invested only what you intended to risk for the play. Electricity does go off; sites go down. Switching from one computer to the other when my electricity went off was made much less frantic by knowing that I had stops in place.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 9:53:56 AM

A 7.5B overnight repo just announced from the Fed results in a net 750M drain for the day.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 9:50:27 AM

Electricity off here. I'm working from my laptop now, but since I worked from it for several hours starting in the wee hours of the morning this morning, I'm not sure how much battery life it has left.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 9:48:06 AM

Sector Strength Natural Gas +1.45%, Oil +1.22%. Sector Weakness Gold Bugs -1.39%, Airline -1.29%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 9:47:34 AM

QQQQ failed at 36.70 and has been edging lower along the 7200 tick SMA. The 30 min cycle is still showing an uptick, but the price needs to clear that 36.70-.75 confluence to kick off a new upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 9:45:06 AM

Merck (MRK) $31.57 -0.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 9:44:33 AM

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) 313.03 -0.39% ... testing its trending lower 200-day SMA here.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 9:44:16 AM

As this 15-minute period draws to a close, the OEX is holding above the massed resistance mentioned early, but just barely.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 9:43:37 AM

April gold is bouncing from a session low of 438, currently down 5.40 at 438.80. Should 438 fail, next support is at the 435-6 confluence. Currently, HUI is down 1.27% at 217.41, XAU -1.03% at 100.4.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 9:42:26 AM

Shoe Pavilion (SHOE) $4.80 +11.62% ... surging to new highs. Company reported net income of $1.0 million, or $0.14 per fully diluted share compared to a loss of $60,000, or $-0.01 per share in the same period a year ago.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 9:38:54 AM

The OEX is pushing higher, as I thought it might do, although we don't yet have a 15-minute close. Remember that I'm expecting either a countertrend bounce or a consolidation day that perhaps sends the OEX both higher and lower. I'm not thinking that it's going to be a great trading day, although watchful for that condition to change. I do think it possible that even if the OEX heads higher in early trading, that it might pull back from somewhere between 570-571, perhaps back to 568 or so before it decides on the tenor for this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 3/17/2005 9:36:44 AM

Vaalco Energy (AMEX:EGY) $4.15 -2.10% ... surge in volume. Company said that the 1818 Fund II, L.P. sold 35,898,695 shares of EGY in a series of block trades. EGY will now have approximately 56.2 million shares of common stock, approximately 5.3 million employee employee options to purchase shares of common stock.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 9:36:05 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute nested Keltner channel shows: The OEX is striving mightily to pull free of Keltner resistance massed at 567.59 and slightly lower. It's above that level, but not on a 15-minute closing basis, so it's not really free of that resistance just yet. I wouldn't be surprised if it did pull free and head up toward 570, perhaps pulling back somewhere near there before deciding on a further thrust higher, toward 572.60-573.30 or not. Too early to tell yet, although I do see it pushing higher as I complete this post.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 9:31:30 AM

SOX trying to rise from its 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 9:26:58 AM

QQQQ's nose-to-nose with declining 7200 tick SMA resistnace at 36.67 and the 30 min channel already beginning to edge up. Immediate upside confluence is at 36.70-.75, above which we should have another 30 min cycle upphase attempting to get underway. The 30 and 60 min cycles are deeply oversold, and provided that the 36.53 low holds for any retest, the next major intraday move should be to the upside. That upside move will be corrective within the declining daily cycle, and should fail below yesterday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 9:21:53 AM

Session high for 10 year bonds here at 109 23/64, with TNX down 6 bps at 4.458%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 9:21:03 AM

The Fed has 13.25B in various expiring repos today, and has so far announced a 5B 14-day repo, leaving 8.25B with which to be dealt in the 10AM announcement.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 9:11:35 AM

Today may well be a stand-aside-and-watch day on the OEX. Here's why: Link There could be a bounce-it's about time for one and futures are currently modestly higher despite new records in crude costs-but, if so, it's likely to be a countertrend bounce. Those can be sharp and fast, and the reversals just as sharp and fast and can come an unpredictable times.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 8:35:24 AM

Session low for gold and silver here at 441.80 nd 7.396. Euro futures are printing a low of 1.3384 as I type. USD Index chart at this Link testing yesterday's 7AM high.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 8:31:47 AM

Ten year yields are down to a 5 bp loss at 4.468%, ES holding a fractional gain with NQ, YM and QQQQ flat, QQQQ at 36.62 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 8:30:38 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. 4-WK.AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS AT 6-WEEK HIGH

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS OFF 48,000 TO 2.65 MLN

8:30am U.S. 4-WK.AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 3,750 TO 316,500

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 10,000 TO 318,000

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 8:23:07 AM

Bonds are higher this morning, with ten year yields down 4.4 bps at 4.474% at the cash open. Equities have edged slightly higher, with only ES ticking positive here as we await the initial claims data.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/17/2005 7:45:20 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1191.5, NQ 1492.5, YM 10650 and QQQQ -.08 to 36.54. Gold is down .60 to 443.60, silver -.03 to 7.42, ten year notes -.3125 to 109 1/4, and crude oil +.85 to 57.30.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 315K, followed by Leading indicators at 10, est. +.1%.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 7:35:55 AM

I'm not seeing anything else anywhere about that Heathrow rumor. Must have been just that--a rumor. There's been time for it to appear on regular news sources.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 7:24:53 AM

Forex markets reporting a rumor that Heathrow Airport in the U.K. is being evacuated, but the same source reports that no information on this shows up on the newswires. These forex sources are like your quickest chart indicator--the first to signal news, but often just wrong--so take this information with a grain of salt.

Linda Piazza : 3/17/2005 7:17:02 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei dropped nearly 100 points at the open and closed nearly 100 points lower, too. Other Asian markets suffered from weakness, too. European markets have been trading tentatively either side of the flat-line as this report was prepared, hurt today by oil moving to a new record high. Our futures have shown increasing volatility since the European open, having dropped off the most recent five-minute high. As of 6:27 EST, gold was lower by $1.00, and crude, higher by $0.76 to $57.22. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Despite the latest Ministry of Finance information showing continued inflows into Japan, the Nikkei gapped lower by almost 100 points Thursday morning and spent the rest of the day oscillating near that level. It closed lower by 97.68 points or 0.82%, at 11,775.50, with losses characterized as being broad. With higher crude costs likely to trim demand, exporters dropped. However, during early trading at least, Fuji TV continued gains made since announcing that it was quadrupling its dividend. Also during early trading, Mitsubishi benefited from an announcement that it was increasing its dividend, and there's some speculation that NTT DoCoMo may also do so. KDDI has already announced its intention to return money to shareholders.

Other Asian markets turned lower, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.66%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.32%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.45%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.11%. Despite contradicting information from other news sources yesterday, saying at that time that China had raised the down payment for mortgages to 30% but lowered the interest rate in a back-door way of cutting demand, another news source this morning claims that China has given lenders permission to raise interest rates. The mentioned interest rate cut referred to excess reserves. China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.96%.

European markets are mixed this morning, many trading tentatively either side of the flat-line level. February's retail sales for the U.K. rose 0.2% over the previous month's, in line with expectations. A three-month to three-month comparison fell -0.6%. The deflator increased from the previous -1.5% year-over-year to -1.2%. Evidence gleaned from these numbers suggests a possible moderation in household spending, according to one report. The eurozone's industrial production for January rose by a less-than-expected 0.5%. Hope had been for a 1% increase. Digging into the various components resulted in a conclusion by one source that the numbers supported the idea of stronger GDP growth in the first quarter of this fiscal year, but didn't clarify the outlook for the medium term.

A warning by supermarket operator William Morrison hurt sentiment in the U.K. In Germany, Chancellor Schroeder called for a tax cut, perhaps to be at least partly financed by an increase in taxes on dividends, but other concerns weighed on investors in Germany and throughout Europe. Airliners turned lower due to energy costs. Germany's Allianz turned cautious about earnings for the year. The insurers were further hit by a statement from reinsurer Swiss Re's CFO saying that the company did not anticipate a stock buyback program for the foreseeable future. Another insurer, Aegon, was hit by speculation that it might have misled investors.

As of 7:02 EST, the FTSE 100 had declined 13.20 points or 0.27%, to 4,924.40. The CAC 40 had climbed 4.35 points or 0.11%, to 4,023.75. The DAX had fallen 4.58 points or 0.11%, to 4,304.53.

Market Monitor Archives