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OI Technical Staff : 3/18/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 6:37:26 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 6:09:24 PM

Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 4:38:26 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 4:16:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... I did not profile any trades today. Weekly Trade Blotter at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 3:53:08 PM

QQQQ is kicking off a new 30 min cycle upphase, which should continue so long as QQQQ holds north of 37.50. The 60 min cycle takes longer to turn- its upphase should start with a break of 36.65.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 3:53:01 PM

The OEX is erasing the 60-minute downside Keltner target, although it's difficult to trust what's happening in these last few minutes of trading. Looking back to the first target set on the breakdown on March 16--564.71--it's clear that the OEX did meet that original downside target. As I'll explain in a Traders Corner article this weekend on setting targets by using Keltner channels, the original upside or downside target is sometimes the only one that's met, so it makes a good exit for the most conservative of traders.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 3:48:50 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 115.33 +0.29% ... best levels of the session.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 3:47:45 PM

TRIN 0.85 -12.37% ... plunging

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 3:46:33 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) 106.06 -0.18% ... late charge higher. XOM +2.13%, UTX +1.39%, PG +1.02% leading the comeback. Breadth even at 15:15.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 3:45:12 PM

Another test of 36.52 resistance for QQQQ, with the oversold 30 min cycle trying to turn up. A break above 36.55 for 5 minutes or longer should confirm a new 30 min cycle upphase, with that level being tested as I type: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 3:45:11 PM

The OEX currently tests the 60-minute Keltner resistance that marks the breakdown-or-not level. A 60-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 566.74 would throw the 562.30-ish downside target into doubt . . . but the day will be over before the next 60-minute period is completed. Bears should be careful now, having their exit plans in place if they intend to exit. Exiting at least partial positions if not full ones might be a good idea, waiting to see what happens Monday morning. The OEX is sitting on potential support from several sources, and while I expect any bounce, if it materializes, to be a countertrend bounce, some might prefer to take profits and see what develops Monday.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 3:30:44 PM

The OEX tries again to stabilize. From here on out, I don't think it's going to be about what's on the chart, which is why I warned that those contemplating an exit consider making exit decisions earlier than usual today.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 3:28:33 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link complete with bad tick just printed to 36.675. The current pattern is a sloppy expanding wedge at the lows- bulls still need that break above 36.52-.55.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 3:24:17 PM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $6.38 +22% ... session highs. Volume building.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 3:21:36 PM

The advdec line really isn't doing anything either, is it? It's trying to stabilize, but really just squiggling around.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 3:19:49 PM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $6.20 +18.16% ... selling long 1,000 on this re-test of $6.26.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 3:12:09 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 3:10:06 PM

As that immediate move back below the channel line needed to stabilize the OEX's smallest Keltner channel predicted, the OEX still shows some weakness. It has several Keltner lines beneath it, but they're not flattening to provide support, but rather turning lower. It's difficult to say whether the OEX will find support here or just slide down those descending lines. Glad I had decided early on that the possible bullish tenor wasn't playing out! (See my 9:39 post.)

However, remember that the OEX is approaching daily Keltner support in a configuration that did support it in January and that all this action over the last couple of days consists only of a test of the daily 100/130-ema's. Remain aware of the possibility of a bounce. Because of the changes in the SPX today at the close, be making your exit plans early today if you plan to exit.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 3:03:15 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 114.86 -0.11% ... inches back red.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 3:02:45 PM

Recovering from a power brownout just now.

The put to call ratio is running consistently above 1.3. Combined with the lower VXO and QQV, this would ordinarily indicate a predominance of puts being sold at decreasing premium/ being dumped. However, it's common to see these numbers skewed as op-ex Friday progresses, and so I believe that these figures should taken with a grain of salt.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 2:53:34 PM

A failure here targets combined channel support at 36.35 QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 2:52:29 PM

The TRAN is also having difficulty with the 15-minute channel line that it needs to stay above to stabilize the smallest Keltner channel. However, support is trying to firm for the TRAN near 3637.00. The resistance just above the TRAN's current 3742 level looks about as strong as that support, so it's difficult to predict what will happen next. For now, the TRAN's stabilization looks tentative at best.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 2:48:44 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.78 -0.48% ... breadth negative at 22 to 8. Percentage gainer is XOM $62.65 +1.90%. Percentage losers include AIG $59.19 -2.64%, C $46.36 -1.88%, DIS $27.93 -1.51%, PFE $25.71 -1.15%.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 2:48:57 PM

As it did earlier today, the OEX closed minimally above the 15-minute Keltner line needed to stabilize the smallest Keltner channel, but now turns right back down to that line. Still testing it.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 2:41:17 PM

The OEX finally managed that 15-minute close that at least stabilized its smallest Keltner channel. It needs a 15-minute close above the Keltner channel line currently at 567.46 to begin turning that channel higher again. It needs a 60-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 566.98 on the 60-minute chart to erase the 562.45 downside target.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 2:40:14 PM

QQQQ failed at 36.52, pulling back now. Bulls want to see a higher low to confirm the new short cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 2:38:13 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 115.01 +0.01% ... bids green.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 2:32:54 PM

5-year yield (FVX.X) up 2.5 bp at 4.161% ... March "Max Pain" was 3.75%, June "Max Pain" tabulated at 3.75%

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 2:29:34 PM

The OEX needs to produce a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 565.85 to stabilize the smallest Keltner channel and keep it from turning further down. It's trying this 15-minute period. It's had a few 15-minute closes above this particular Keltner line but hasn't been able to sustain them until now at least.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 2:25:38 PM

That was a higher low at QQQQ 36.40 just now, and the short cycle's trying to turn up, but it feels like it's laboring. Link Bulls need a break above 36.52 here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 2:25:01 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 2.9 bp at 4.499%. March "Max Pain" was 4.75%, June "Max Pain" currently tabulated at 4.25%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 2:21:44 PM

Corning (GLW) $11.03 -2.47% ... sets up for test of upward trend.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 2:15:57 PM

No OEX 15-minute close above the Keltner line needed to stabilize the smallest Keltner channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 2:15:41 PM

QQQQ current day 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 2:14:08 PM

Earlier in the week, UCLA's annual Anderson Forecast claimed that the U.S. could see a recession as early as next year, a release earlier in the week noted. Only a dramatic rise in capital spending or exports would change that outlook, the group noted. The group did note the recent uptick in exports and found that development at least hopeful. The housing sector could be the first to weaken, perhaps as early as the second half of this year. Today, the ECRI's weekly leading index rose 0.5% for the week ending March 11, raising the smoothed annual growth index from last week's 3.0% to 3.6%. A rise in mortgage applications and fall in jobless claims led to the increases. ECRI director Achuthan's outlook is in stark contrast to that seen by the UCLA group, with Achuthan claiming that growth will accelerate in the second half of this year.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 2:11:33 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 2:07:05 PM

Watching the OEX's 15-minute Keltner line currently at 565.87. The OEX tests it now, but hasn't been able to produce consistent 15-minute closes above this line. It needs to do so in order to stop the smallest channel's descent and will need to close above 567.60 to begin turning it higher again.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 2:02:18 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with 7200 tick SMA resistance lined up with the prior range high at 36.52.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 2:01:44 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 1:57:06 PM

IBM (IBM) $89.15 -0.79% ... still defensive.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 1:49:05 PM

Careful, all. IB's east coast server just dropped out for a few seconds.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 1:46:29 PM

OEX's 130-ema is at 562.99, 60-minute downside target at 562.56, and daily Keltner support at 564. So, potential weakness to 562.50-563, but a need for bears to be careful that the OEX could find support soon, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 1:45:29 PM

Session lows across the board as ES 1188 lets go, QQQQ testing the year low. 30 min channel support is down to 36.35. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 1:32:38 PM

It's either a "b" distribution flag/wedge at the lows, or a beautiful low volume bottom for QQQQ, double bottom for the Dow. QQQQ needs to clear 36.55 to give the oversold short cycle uptick room to breathe and invalidate the "b" flag interpretation.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 1:30:17 PM

Early this morning, I displayed a chart that showed that the OEX was testing its important daily 100/130-ema's at 565.94 and 563.00, respectively, suggesting that the OEX might trade in a choppy fashion near these important averages for another day or more before deciding on final direction. Here's a look at what's happening from the perspective of a daily Keltner chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 1:28:06 PM

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $1.73 -0.57% ... 52-weeker. Don't want to show this one to shareholders as first-quarter draws to a close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 1:26:06 PM

Corning (GLW) $11.11 -1.85% .... session low.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 1:22:29 PM

Ten year notes are rising, with TNX down to a 2.4 bp gain at 4.494%. Gold is back to negative, -.70 at 438.50. Crude oil is up .225 at 56.625 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 1:15:07 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link with 30 min and 60 min channel support both declining to 36.41. 7200 tick SMA resistance is down to 36.57.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 1:12:18 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 1:04:46 PM

As suggested in my 12:29 post, the OEX's support as seen on a three-minute chart was weaker than the resistance. There had been some doubt about the OEX's ability to confirm that inverse H&S, and there was reason to be doubtful. The 60-minute chart suggests that the 562.77 downside target remains possible, but I wouldn't count on my happening as it should today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 1:01:58 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 12:58:41 PM

A new low for QQQQ here. Descending channel support currently lines up at 36.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 12:52:31 PM

The TRINQ has climbed to 1.21 as the lower wedge support line broke for QQQQ, and while the short cycle upphase is still intact, a break below the 36.52 low would be enough to reverse it, bringing it into sync with the 30 min, 60 min and daily cyle downphases. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 12:44:43 PM

Intraday 30-tick chart of SPY at this Link , also sporting a neutral pennant below yesterday's decline.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 12:44:19 PM

The OEX's three-minute chart suggests that the OEX is trying once again to form an inverse H&S, descending neckline at about 567.25. The OEX has already formed a second right shoulder, though, so there's some question about the formation being able to confirm or meet its upside target if confirmed. That upside target is a little less than two points above the breakout point.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 12:35:04 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 12:38:32 PM

Filled on the SBUX Jan07 $50 Put at $5.22. SBUX $52.06.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 12:29:44 PM

Dialed down to a three-minute Keltner chart to see if it might provide more information than the 15-minute or 60-minute. It doesn't. Support might look slightly weaker than resistance and the OEX does drop as I type, but the difference in support and resistance isn't marked.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 12:26:22 PM

Starbucks (SBUX) $52.05 -0.17% ... taking one (1) of the SBUX Jan 07 $50 Puts (VPR-MJ) at the offer of $5.30 in my personal account.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 12:23:25 PM

April gold pulls back above 440 here, while HUI and XAU hold their losses, -.86% at 218.25 and -.63% at 100.97 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 12:14:50 PM

The OEX has maintained its breakdown signal on its 60-minute chart, but just barely. It's resisted falling toward the downside target created and instead the 60-minute candles spring higher from support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 12:14:30 PM

QQQQ just broke above 7200 tick SMA resistance again, in a surprisingly resilient short cycle upphase. The rising resistance line is up to 36.69. While I doubt that the short cycle bulls have enough strength to do it, a break above that level would stall the 30 min cycle downphase and possibly the 60 min as well. The TRINQ is neutral at .91 here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 12:13:36 PM

Turkish Investment Fund (NYSE:TKF) $16.70 +6.09% ... bouncing after near-test of mid-December range. Heavy volume last two sessions looks "quarterly rebalance"

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 12:09:18 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 12:04:10 PM

BIX trying to steady, but so far just walking down its 15-minute Keltner channels; TRAN doing the same; RLX, too; SOX about the same.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 12:02:37 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:59:24 AM

Mammma.com (MAMA) $3.78 +22.5% (Update) ... engages new auditor and recoonfirms late filing of financial statements.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 11:59:00 AM

Crude oil is up a tick at 56.425, 45 cents off its high and 45 cents off its low. The CRB is down for the second day in a row despite strength in cocoa, crude oil and FCOJ futures today, while gold has made it to positive territory, up .30 at 439.50.

Tab Gilles : 3/18/2005 11:58:07 AM

$NDX Testing 40 week-ma. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 11:56:01 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows: The OEX is still near the middle of the lower half of the nested Keltner charts. The smallest Keltner chart tries to straighten, but threatens to keel over again. Support and resistance appear about equally weighted, so that it's difficult to say which will hold. Still no clarity. I still wouldn't feel compelled to enter either a bearish or a bullish play.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 11:52:28 AM

QQQQ is back down to the lows after failing to crack 36.67 resistance. This is obviously a bearish development in light of the synchronized downphases in progress here, but the absence of a complete wipeout suggests more strength than might otherwise be apparent. This morning is prime time for bears, but so far the slight uptick in the short cycle is enough to stem the 30 and 60 min downphases within the daily downphase. If the bulls can avoid losses below 36.45, then the 30 min cycle downphase will begin to appear corrective, setting the stage for a stronger upphase to follow. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:53:04 AM

Mamma.com (MAMA) $3.70 +18.97% ... surges higher from $3.00 last 15-minutes. Volume brisk. WEEKLY Piv= $3.39, R1 $3.62, R2 $3.97.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:47:08 AM

Krispy Kreme (KKD) $7.68 +4.20% ... might benefit from some near-term short covering. Testing 50-day SMA here. Big opening 5-minute from $7.45-$7.70. Volume light.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:43:35 AM

Citigroup (C) $46.33 -1.92% ... sharply lower and testing its 200-day SMA ($46.34) on volume.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 11:42:43 AM

The OEX produced a first 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 567.25, but now turns down below it again. With only a few minues left in this 15-minute period, it looks as if it might close below it this period.

Tab Gilles : 3/18/2005 11:37:23 AM

SMH 50% test on Fib Retrace. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:34:46 AM

Genesco (GCO) $28.19 -1.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:34:19 AM

Nike (NKE) $86.26 -0.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:33:58 AM

Reebok Intl. (RBK) $35.24 +1.5% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:33:34 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $15.07 +1.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:33:07 AM

Stride Rite (SRR) $13.78 +4.23% ... coverage initiated by Brean Murray with "hold" rating.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:31:29 AM

TiVo (TIVO) $5.84 +5.22% ... somewhat of a "Nike swoosh" to the upside after a flat open. $6.00-$6.02 looks to be a near-term point of resistance.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 11:27:22 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:23:31 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 11:21:59 AM

On the last 15-minute low, bullish-style Keltner divergence showed up. However, the OEX has not yet produced a 15-minute close above 567.22, the first tentative sign it needs to produce to start turning its smallest Keltner channel on this chart higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 11:21:47 AM

Dashing out to the bank and hoping to be back within 20 minutes.

Tab Gilles : 3/18/2005 11:21:40 AM

$SPX getting partially changed today. Link Any comments?

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:18:27 AM

CTI Molecular Imaging (CTMI) $20.32 +15.91% ... Siemens AG to acquire the maker of scanners used to detect cancer and other diseases for $1 billion. The deal valued CTMI at $20.50 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:09:43 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/18/2005 11:13:16 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Is MUR setting up for a double top and a bearish divergence? Just projecting here...but, follow me if oil is heading for $60 bbl, which many have called for. Would that coincide with MUR retesting it's recent high? Just speculating mind you, but it would set up a nice short perhaps? Let's keep an eye on this one. Link Link

I've targeted the XLE to pullback towards the 50-ema followed with the 100-ema. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 11:07:12 AM

Two days ago, the TRAN confirmed a H&S on its 60-minute chart and then spent some time coming up to retest the neckline. It didn't quite hit the neckline again before falling. I've been noting for some time that the TRAN is overbought on a weekly and monthly basis, overbought to the degree that's its reached envelope levels that usually mark major turning points for the TRAN. Last week, I also warned that the TRAN had produced a doji as the weekly candle, the second candle in a possible evening-star pattern. If the TRAN ends the day anywhere near the current level, it will have completed that reversal signal on the weekly chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 11:06:25 AM

QQQQ intraday chart updated at this Link passing 7200 tick SMA resistance as I type, on the way to a retest of 36.67 resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 11:02:17 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 10:57:11 AM

Still expecting some strange trading behavior today.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 10:56:08 AM

April gold is up to unchanged at 439.20 despite the USD Index holding near its highs: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 10:54:42 AM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $52.07 -0.47% ... settles illegal immigrant case and has agreed to pay $11 million to settle federal allegations it used illegal immigrants to clean stores. "We're happy that Wal-Mart may finally be putting this shameful chapter to rest with the federal authorities and we expect them not to focus on the people who were shamefully exploited from around the world," said James Linsey, who is representing the workers in a civil suit against the company that is still pending in New Jersey.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 10:51:05 AM

Potential for downside to OEX 563 still exists, but this is opex Friday, when anything goes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 10:50:12 AM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 2.2 bp at 4.492% and bound between DAILY R1/Daily R2 early. Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.19 -0.54 b/a $9.19 x $9.21.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 10:49:03 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle is roughly halfway through its downphase, with the 60 min cycle just kicking off its own downphase in the past few minutes. With the daily cycle pointed south as well, that leaves the potential for serious damage before the close if bulls can't get back above the 36.67-.70 zone in a hurry. QQQQ is bearish below that level, with the 30/60 min and daily cycles in synchronous downphases.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 10:46:01 AM

OEX dropping to the daily 100-ema at 565.96.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 10:46:00 AM

Gold is up off its lows, down .80 at 438.8 and bouncing from 435.90, which is the top of the 435-6 confluence. 438 support has been broken, but did not act as resistance for hte bounce. HUI and XAU are both down, but it's only a .75% and .71% loss respectively. Nymex crude is up .35 at 56.75 here, 20 cents off its session high.

Tab Gilles : 3/18/2005 10:40:12 AM

The dollar has rallied and sold-off this year between optimism about the U.S. economy and the upward direction of U.S. interest rates and pessimism over the United States' ability to finance its record current account deficit. Such pessimism eased this week after data showed net capital inflows into the United States surged to $91.5 billion in January, the second biggest inflow on record and more than enough to finance the nation's current account deficit. The market is expecting 25 basis points and will get it on Tuesday, but there is a significant risk there will be a change in the statement to be more hawkish.

$GOLD has broken below shortterm trend and is likely to test the $434 level as indicated on chart. EUR/USD continues to decline, watching 1.3093 as strong support. (see daily and hourly charts) $GOLD Link EUR/USD daily & hourly Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 10:39:06 AM

The OEX now rests on 60-minute Keltner support, the daily 100-ema. The 60-minute Keltner chart shows that prices have set a tentative downside target of 562.96, but there's that daily 100-ema, too.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 10:37:33 AM

No sooner did I note that the advdec line had been steadying since 10:00 than it fell through the possible bear flag it had been forming and dived. I like to watch these formations on the advdec line, too.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 10:36:29 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $83.11 +2.37% ... QQQQ $36.53 -0.46%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 10:36:24 AM

QQQQ's back to the lows- breaking them now as I type. Bonds are weak as well, TNX +3.3 bps 4.503%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 10:32:41 AM

QQQQ intraday chart updated at this Link with the 60 min channel ticking down to join the 30 min cycle downphase.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 10:31:46 AM

The advdec line has been trying to steady since 10:00, since the release of the University of Michigan sentiment numbers. Think someone could have known in advance that those numbers were going to be soft?

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 10:21:05 AM

QQQQ's bounce fell shy of the now-declining 7200 tick SMA at 36.72, and the 60 min cycle which had been holding its upphase has finally stalled. Bulls need to break back north within the next few minutes to avoid it joining the downphasing 30 min cycle. Current channel support is 36.45 for the 30 min cycle, 36.55 for the 60.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 10:19:53 AM

The OEX pauses above the daily 100/130-ema's. Those are located at 566.00 and 563.13, respectively. The 60-minute Keltner channels suggest that there's a possibility although not yet a probability that the OEX could fall toward that 130-ema before finally steadying. The 100-ema is powerful support, however, also located near 60-minute Keltner support, and no breakdown signal has yet been created. The OEX's presence near these MA's is one reason that I believe that the OEX might need to consolidate for a while. If it's going to break down below these averages, it's likely to take a while. If it's going to bounce from them, bulls might need some evidence of steadying before they feel willing to pick their bruised selves up and buy again.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 10:20:24 AM

Able Energy (ABLE) $14.30 +9.74% ... recognizes recent stock price surge and heavy trade volume. Management excited about these developments and is "gratified" that the market has recognized the inherent value of the company. However, other than information previously made public, management not aware of any circumstances, which they can attribute to stock's rise.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 10:12:20 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 10:08:48 AM

The OEX is consolidating right at that red horizontal S/R in the chart linked to my 9:16 post. So far, the kind of choppy day I feared, and we've yet to see the bullish tenor that I thought might have a slight edge over bearish establish itself.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 10:07:50 AM

Current session low is 36.54, and the short cycles are buried in oversold for QQQQ. Bulls need to clear the broken support line at 36.66 to overcome the assumption that this will be a deadcat bounce/bear flag off the low.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 10:06:13 AM

The dip may be due to slightly softer than hoped U of Michigan Sentiment numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 10:02:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 10:01:09 AM

Correction: I missed a 5B 4-day repo also expiring today, which results in a net DRAIN of 1.5B, and not a net add as I mistakenly reported.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 10:02:00 AM

The Fed has just announced a large 11B weekend repo to replace the 7.5B expiring, for a net add of 3.5B for the day.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:56:16 AM

Here's what the OEX's 60-minute Keltner chart shows: The OEX now pauses at potential 60-minute support at 568.13, with bulls wanting to see continued 60-minute closes above that Keltner line. However, the OEX continues to print 60-minute closes below the Keltner line currently at 568.65. That keeps the smallest Keltner channel pointed down and continues the risk toward a Keltner line currently at 566.82 and then perhaps lower, if the OEX breaks through that.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:59:47 AM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $6.27 +20.07% ... hot again today. Just seeing yesterday's news that company filed formal request with State of Utah for an operational license to reopen and operate the Shootaring Canyon Uranium Mill. Spot price for uranium concentrates (U308) have increased during the past year from $10.00 per lb. to $21.25 per lb.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 9:55:16 AM

If QQQQ loses this rising support line, next stop is at 36.54, being current 30 min channel support lined up with yesterday's low.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:54:21 AM

RLX weak; BIX strong but pausing now; TRAN weak; SOX now weak, but at the double-bottom level (from yesterday). Weakness trumps strength so far in these indices at least.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:50:59 AM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.52 +7.85% ... announced that two papers have recently published studies that illustrate the improved durability of Altair's titanium dioxide nanoparticles, when used as a coating on titanium metal or other high performance alloys. Story at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 9:50:15 AM



Expectation was for 94.9.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 9:49:21 AM

QQQQ update at this Link . Michigan sentiment due now.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:48:09 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channels show or don't show: The OEX approaches Keltner resistance from 569.04-569.38, just below the neckline for its inverse H&S. MACD still flatlined. That resistance is not particularly firm, but support under the OEX looks even weaker.

Remember we're awaiting U of Michigan sentiment numbers in a few minutes, too.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:43:48 AM

BIX climbing strongly, having confirmed its inverse H&S. Again, mixed evidence. I'm not feeling confident of any direction. Are you? If not, stay out.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:42:30 AM

Advdec line dropping, too. Drop and pop day? Difficult to tell. The SOX says one thing; the TRAN another.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:41:20 AM

The SOX is trying to hold up at the equal low (from yesterday afternoon) level. This despite a low book-to-bill number last night and despite overnight information from Japan that demand for Japanese chip-making devices was likely to slow. Mixed evidence from some indices today. More reason for caution.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:41:07 AM

California Micro Devices (CAMD) $5.75 -21.34% ... Downgraded at AG Edwards to "hold" from "buy" after company previewed a weaker-than-expected Q4 outlook late Thursday. Company said it sees a loss of 4 to 6 cents per share on revenue of $13.8 million to $14.5 million. Analysts were looking for earnings of $+0.04 per share on sales of $15.2 million.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:39:33 AM

Nix the potential bullish tenor. The TRAN's behavior certainly throws doubt on that.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:38:56 AM

Careful, bulls. TRAN absolutely diving.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:37:08 AM

United Tech (UTX) $103.64 +1.28% ... wins European Commission's permission to buy Britain's Kidde for $2.8 billion in cash.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:35:17 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.46 -0.32% ... Europen Union saying MSFT is not complying with last year's ruling.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:33:52 AM

The TRAN's close yesterday and open this morning was low enough that it throws the whole inverse H&S sceneario out. Still could be forming a higher low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:32:39 AM

Isonics (ISON) $3.20 +11.12% ... Homeland Security Division signs technology agreement with Russia's top nuclear research institution.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:30:44 AM

The OEX opens slightly lower but heads up immediately. Too soon to tell much.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:30:14 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $42.25 ... called higher at $43.33 with Morgan Stanley upgrading to "overweight" with $60 price target.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:29:06 AM

RadioShack (RSH) $27.71 ... marked lower to $25.99 lowering its profit outlook on slowdown in wireless sales.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:27:36 AM

Oracle (ORCL) $13.16 ... lower at $12.98 after company said its CFO Harry You is leaving the company ater just eight months.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:26:16 AM

PalmOne (PLMO) $24.05 ... lower at $22.00 and among this morning's most active with company's outlook disappointing investors. Bear Stearns ups its rating to "peer perform."

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 9:17:25 AM

Yesterday morning, I posted this chart (red 21-ema, blue 100-ema and green 130-ema) and mentioned that I expected the OEX to either bounce slightly or consolidate: Link There was a small bounce that consolidated some of the recent losses. Now what? Friday is more difficult. We've had one day of consolidation-an easy enough event to predict-but was one day enough of a consolidation or are more needed? That's more difficult to say, especially with an opex Friday ahead of us. My gut feeling is that we may need at least another day or two of consolidation at those important daily 100/130-ema's before a final direction is decided. Again, that consolidation doesn't mean that the indices in general and the OEX in particular won't move, but that it might move in unpredictable ways, with upside or downside targets set but not met.

Unfortunately, the often-reliable 15-minute nested Keltner channels don't give a clear picture, either. The closing value was in the middle of the lower half of those nested channels, with both nearby support and nearby resistance spread somewhat thinly. It was difficult to give more weight to either the support or the resistance. MACD flattened. That shows that as of the close, chart characteristics were showing that final direction hadn't been decided yet.

A potential inverse H&S can be seen on that chart, neckline at about 569.90. It should be a bit worrisome for bulls that the OEX spent all afternoon trying to form a shoulder and then push up through that neckline, without ever being able to do so. The upside target would be at about 573.60 if the formation were confirmed, but for now this has to be considered a countertrend move, so we shouldn't necessarily count on the upside target being met. The OEX will run into mid-channel Keltner resistance at 571.30-571.65. That mid-channel resistance is still turning lower, however, and soon might match up with the neckline area.

I'll be watching for something to develop as the markets open, but for now, I see a likelihood of another untradable day, but perhaps with more of a bullish than a bearish bias for the day. Might be famous last words, either about it not being tradable or the slight favoring toward a bullish rather than a bearish bias.

Jeff Bailey : 3/18/2005 9:15:01 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.51 and set for program selling at $+3.24.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 9:05:54 AM

Session high for QQQQ here at 36.82, just clearing 7200 tick SMA resistance at 36.79. The 30 min cycle had rolled over as of the close, and will stall if bulls can hold at or above these levels for approx. 10 minutes past the cash open. It will take a sustained move above 36.88 resistance to turn the channel back up. Upper resistance for both the 30 and 60 min cycle channels is at 36.91.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 8:57:17 AM

Ten year treasuries continue to rise, with TNX now up 3.8 bps at 4.508%. The US Dollar Index is also firm Link with gold and silver hanging near their earlier lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 8:33:53 AM

Equities and bonds remain nearly unchanged following the data, with April gold creeping slightly higher to a 2$ loss at 437.20 off a low of 436.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 8:33:05 AM

Export prices ex-ag. +.1%, prior .9% revised up from .7%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 8:31:15 AM







Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 8:26:51 AM

Ten year treasuries have opened lower, with the TNX up 2.7 bps at 4.497% in the opening minutes of the cash market. Equities are mostly unchanged approaching the 8:30 data.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/18/2005 7:38:53 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1195.75, NQ 1502, YM 10670 and QQQQ +.10 at 36.81. Gold is down 1.70 to 437.5, silver -.057 to 7.35, ten year notes -.125 at 109 1/8 and crude oil -.125 at 56.275.

We await the 8:30 release of import prices ex-ag. and import prices ex-oil, prior .7% and .2% respectively, and at 9:45, Michigan Sentiment, est. 94.9.

Linda Piazza : 3/18/2005 6:57:15 AM

Good morning. In addition to our weak SEMI book-to-bill number, a Japanese release showed that Japanese chip-manufacturing device sales fell in February, but Japanese investors ignored any worries engendered by that number. The Nikkei zoomed up in early trading and closed a little more than 100 points higher. Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more gaining than losing. European markets currently post gains, and our futures currently show modest gains. As of 6:48 EST, gold was down $1.50, and crude, down $0.08 to $56.32. The dollar has firmed against many currencies. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

March's Telerate (not the Bank of Japan's version) Tankan manufacturers' DI rose to 18 from February's 9, although major non-manufacturers' measured 16, down three from the previous month's. The Minister of Finance warned that oil prices should be watched, but claimed that Japan's economy was more resilient to higher crude prices than it had been in the past, a claim being made in other countries. Is this beginning to sound like the "it's different this time" statements we began to hear about high p/e ratios in late 1999 and early 2000? Investors expressed little skepticism, though, sending the Nikkei shooting higher in early trading. Within the first 90 minutes, it had reached its high of the day, and then drifted sideways to slightly down the rest of the day. Ahead of a three-day weekend, the Nikkei closed higher by 104.31 points or 0.89%, at 11,879.81.

Media shares such as Fuji Television extended recent gains. JAMA estimated that full-year 2005 demand for Japanese cars would increase 1.9%, and both these factors helped sentiment. A firming in the dollar against the yen helped, too, and exporters gained.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but more closed up than down. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.19%, but South Korea's Kospi declined 0.03%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.68%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng inched 0.08% higher. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.29%.

Most European markets climb, with gains in automakers helping to lift the bourses after a number of upgrades to sector stocks. In Germany, Chancellor Schroeder has unveiled his tax-cut plan. The economy minister of Europe's biggest economy spoke, too, noting the problems that currency issues and oil prices could cause, but also mentioning Germany's strong export growth. In company-specific news, SAP gained, benefiting from Oracle's increased offer for Retek Inc., a company that SAP also hopes to acquire. Investors appear happy that SAP's plans could be thwarted. In the U.K., bullish sentiment was also helped by insurer Friends Provident Group's operating profit forecasts.

As of 6:46 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 25.10 points or 0.51%, to 4,947.20. The CAC 40 had gained 18.94 points or 0.47%, to trade at 4,051.01. The DAX had gained 17.77 points or 0.41%, to trade at 4,333.69.

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