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OI Technical Staff : 3/21/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 5:00:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 4:55:10 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 4:43:30 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 4:05:14 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... I did not profile any trades today.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 3:52:55 PM

What do you do if you entered an OEX play today? Barring a strong move in the last few minutes of trading, the OEX looks likely to end the day between its daily 100-ema and 100-sma. It might end the day near the middle of its 15-minute Keltner channels, with those channels still pointing down. The RLX appears to be heading toward a close above its 200-sma and -ema after having tested them today. The TRAN may be printing a doji at the bottom of a drop, just above its 38.2% retracement of the rally off the January low. The SOX may end the day with a doji, but perhaps with a doji at or just below the 200-sma--check as the close draws nearer. The BIX bounced strongly off 350, but now trades only near the midpoint of the day's range.

Mixed evidence, some weighted more toward the bearish side than the bullish and some just inconclusive. Some indices certainly attempt bounces, some show indecision through doji at the bottom of drops and some . . . are just inconclusive. I still think that a bounce ought to be attempted (and then shorted), but today's action proved disappointing to those hoping to see a bounce. That bounce-and-rollover entry might not be afforded to traders wanting new bearish entries, and profits may not be to those who have already entered bullish trades on hopes of a bounce. There's just not enough evidence either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 5:03:25 PM

Uranium on the cranium ... with USEG $7.89 +22.36%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 3:43:28 PM

Today's zigging and zagging has chopped up the 30 min cycle oscillators for QQQQ- still in a bullish position and on bullish divergences from last week's lower lows, but without any great conviction. NQ needs to break 1500, while QQQQ has confluence resistance to 37.00. The daily cycle continues to point south, despite today's bullish hammer from a lower low. All in all, a perfect recipe for chop and indecision ahead of the Fed.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 3:39:03 PM

Those in bullish OEX plays (countertrend, so especially risky with options), want to see the OEX close the current 15-minute period above 564.97. They want to see the OEX close the day above the daily 100-ema at 565.98.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 3:32:36 PM

The TRAN has done a lot of zooming around today, with the net effect that it's coiling into a triangle on the 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 3:28:26 PM

Breakout on the OEX's three-minute chart, toward 566.87. It's not much evidence, but is some. OEX headed up again as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 3:20:32 PM

The RLX maintains values above its 200-sma and -ema after testing them today.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 3:19:58 PM

The SOX is still below its 200-sma. Bulls really want to see the SOX above that average. So far, however, the daily candle is a doji at the bottom of a decline: potentially a reversal signal. The OEX's doji Friday didn't do much for it today, though, did it?

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 3:19:35 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 3:18:29 PM

QQQQ is getting sequeezed higher below 37.62 resistance, holding above the 7200 tick SMA resistance. This rising triangle setup should break higher, confirmed with a break back above the 37.65 level. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 3:14:24 PM

So far, the 15-minute Keltner resistance from 565.44-565.58 still holds.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 3:08:45 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 3:02:22 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 3:01:49 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 2:57:37 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 2:53:34 PM

Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance near 565.50 is the next hurdle for the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 2:47:08 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , clearing the 7200 tick SMA but stalling below the morning low. Nevertheless, the bounce was sharper than the flaggy decline that preceded it, and a break back above 37.65 should see confirmation for a strong short cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 2:43:58 PM

The OEX hit the three-minute Keltner resistance near 565.30. Now bulls want to see it hold above 564.40-564.60 support.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 2:39:03 PM

Slight change in tenor, then. The OEX erases Keltner-style bearish divergence on the three-minute chart. This is just slight divergence so far.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 2:37:43 PM

Rambus (RMBS) $17.13 .... NITE gets a partial fill at the bid. NITE says he/she is a seller at $17.22-25.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 2:35:10 PM

Rambus (RMBS) $17.20 +31.17% .... NITE $17.12 looks to be a chaser.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 2:35:04 PM

The OEX has been showing Keltner-style bearish divergence on each rise toward three-minute Keltner resistance. If th's to continue, the OEX will not produce a three-minute close higher than the line currently at 564.71. If it does produce a higher close, perhaps the tenor has changed, but look for next resistance near 565.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 2:34:09 PM

SPY is bouncing back above its 7200 tick SMA resistance as QQQQ holds below, currently up at 36.57. So far, price is respecting the lower 60 min channel support (grey keltner90 channel), but the failure to bounce is turning the channel lower. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 2:33:40 PM

Rambus (RMBS) $17.10 +30.33% ... Chicago up at $17.00. NITE bidding $17.10 here

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 2:31:24 PM

Rambus (RMBS) $17.12 +30.48% ... day trade bulls may be trying to front run a bid in Chicago and NITE ($16.98). Both have been patient at that level.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 2:27:29 PM

Dickie Walker Marine (DWMA) $1.70 +37.09% ... spotlight this percentage gainer. On Feb. 3, DWMA announced proposed offer to acquire Intelligent Energy Holdings PLC. On Friday, Intelligent Energy said it demonstrated utility of its "CORE" technology and unveiled the world's first feul cell motorbike.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 2:20:29 PM

I'm still wondering about a potential equilibrium position on the OEX's three-minute chart, with the OEX oscillating in a tight range. For now, resistance still looks far stronger than support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 2:17:47 PM

QQQQ is breaking 36.50 support here, now below the flag support line and testing the intersection of 30 and 60 min channel support. With the short cycle oversold at the bottom of its range, a break below current levels would be very bearish- the more likely outcome is a bounce, but bulls don't want to lose 36.45.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 2:15:30 PM

The three-minute Keltner chart was telling the truth. Resistance was stronger than support. Three-minute support at 563.66 and then again at 562.81.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 2:14:41 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.53, SPY $118.12, QQQQ $36.49.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 2:11:20 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 2:10:58 PM

I've turned to the OEX's three-minute Keltner charts. Those show the OEX rising to test resistance, but also show that the resistance looks stronger than nearby support. Their evidence may not be particularly trustworthy, however, as the OEX is settling into an equilibrium position on this time interval's chart. When that happens, all channels line up within each other, around the central average. That means that many Keltner lines tend to line up near the middle, looking like firm resistance or firm support, as the case might be, but the OEX ends up moving across them rather easily in a tight range.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 2:05:16 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link with lower flag support being tested here.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 2:04:34 PM

The SOX turning down again from its 200-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 2:02:36 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 1:58:21 PM

The advdec line meanders in a sideways fashion. The OEX is between the 100-ema and 130-ema. It's right in the middle of the bottom half of the 15-minute Keltner channels, with MACD flattening. I'd love to say that I could see from this evidence that the OEX was headed this way or that way, but the evidence just isn't there. My gut impression this morning was that the OEX would attempt a bounce from its test of the 100/130-ema's, perhaps with a test of the 130-ema to yet be accomplished. We got the test of the 130-ema, but I'm certainly not impressed with the bounce attempt. I thought 566-568 would likely be the first resistance we ought to watch for a potential rollover, but we're just seeing sideways trading.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 1:52:36 PM

Currently, the OEX is below the daily 100-ema, above the 130-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 1:51:52 PM

I missed the 1PM treasury auction results- 20B of 3 month t-bills auctioned at a high rate of 2.8% generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.8, and another 18B of 6 month t-bills went at 3.035%, generating a bid-to-cover of 2.21. Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took approx. 7B of the 38B total.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 1:45:59 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , now testing the 7200 tick SMA from below.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 1:43:40 PM

So far, the SOX has not been able to maintain values above its 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 1:43:19 PM

More damage for the CRB today, now down 6.62 at 312.58 on weakness in cocoa, silver and wheat futures. The US Dollar Index rmains very strong, still up 1.09% against euro futures today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 1:29:14 PM

Most Active .... QQQQ $36.57 +0.16%, MSFT $24.23 -0.32%, SPY $118.22 -0.26%, ORCL $12.51 -0.23%, ASKJ $28.10 +15.92%, INTC $23.53 +0.55%, SDS $30.96 +24.04%, SMH $32.47 +0.06%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 1:28:50 PM

QQQQ lost the 36.59 support and is now holding below still-rising 7200 tick SMA resistance at 36.62. The 30 min channel has stalled in its rise, with the short cycle in a corrective downphase so far. 36.50 is next support, and unless the bears give a big push, the short cycle should be just starting to bottom by the time QQQQ reaches it.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 1:26:24 PM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner charts show the OEX in danger of slipping back to test lower Keltner support from 562.40-563.40. The pullback looks a bit like a bull flag pullback, but evidence is still far from conclusive on this chart. That resistance near 565.50-565.80 continues to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 1:13:59 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 1:05:11 PM

For those using Quotetracker whose intraday chart has just been flattened by the bad QQQQ tick to 38.60, click on the intraday chart and hit CTRL-SHIFT-H together a couple of times until the bad tick disappears.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 1:04:37 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link QQQQ tentative below WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 1:02:27 PM

Tab, the information on the yuan came from the news release on the currency trading platform I use. I'm looking for verification through other sources, such as www.forexnews.com, but I haven't found it yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 1:01:52 PM

QQQQ has just broken back below this morning's 36.65 confluence, but the real test for the 30 min cycle spike will be at 36.59, the current level of the 7200 tick SMA. A boucne from there would target the upper descending flag resistance line, possibly the handle of a 2-day 100 tick bullish cup and handle formation. Bears need a hard break down below 36.59 from here to invalidate the pattern. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:59:11 PM

I was having difficulty with the link on my 12:58 post. I decided to just list the information shown on that post.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 12:53:55 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:58:22 PM

A look at the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel shows that the OEX faces 15-minute Keltner resistance at 565.58-565.91. A 15-minute close above those Keltner levels suggests a climb to 568.50, where the OEX would face tougher resistance. Note, however, that such a 15-minute close above the Keltner resistance now being face was soon reversed last Friday. Any who are in bullish positions need to be protective of profits from 566-568. Note also that the OEX's support is now trying to firm from 562.60-563.40 or so.

Tab Gilles : 3/21/2005 12:45:13 PM

Thanks for the news Linda...what source did you hear that from?

Jane Fox : 3/21/2005 12:41:11 PM

Linda that is huge news!

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:39:55 PM

News in China is that the government will widen its trading bands and peg it to a basket of 8 currencies, rather than just the dollar. The report in the Beijing Daily did not specify a time, but it's been speculated for a time that the yuan will begin trading against that basket of currencies in May, so there's some thought that perhaps the widening of the trading band might happen then, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 12:39:06 PM

QQQQ pulled back fro 36.75 and is now bouncing from the morning's high, now support, at 36.65. 30 min channel resistance has risen to 36.80, with the 7rising 200 tick SMA currently up to 36.54.

Tab Gilles : 3/21/2005 12:40:18 PM

$FVX.X Everyone is talking about the 10 year rate...what about the 5 year? Interesting chart... Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:34:10 PM

TRAN still trying to bounce from above the 38.2% retracement of its rally off the January low.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:33:26 PM

SOX above the 200-sma, barely, below the 50-sma at 418.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 12:25:36 PM

The CRB is getting hammered along with gold, currently down 5.6 at 313.60. April gold is bouncing off a nominal new low at 429.90, currently -9.10 at 430.5. The miners are holding at a 2.54% loss for HUI and a 2.49% loss for XAU at 211.72 and 98.05 respectively.

Tab Gilles : 3/21/2005 12:24:29 PM

$NDX.X Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:24:23 PM

According to the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, the next hurdle is the resistance currently at 566. We knew that anyway, however, with the daily 100-ema at 565.97. Potential resistance gets tougher from 566-568.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 12:18:20 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/21/2005 12:14:16 PM

EUR/USD chart Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:13:39 PM

This morning, the RLX has been testing its 200-sma and -ema's. Currently bouncing above both.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:13:14 PM

SOX breaking above the 200-sma. Let's see if it holds.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 12:10:55 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/21/2005 12:10:44 PM

$GOLD chart Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:08:17 PM

The SOX bounced somewhat strongly, right up to retest the 200-sma again, with that average at 415.82 and the SOX at 415.07 as I type. May be an important test to watch.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 12:06:47 PM

The advdec line still climbs. It's climb looks a little bear-flag-like, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 12:05:50 PM

QQQQ has far exceeded the slowly-turning 60 min cycle and is currently poking above the 30 min channel top as well. A failure to dive back below 36.53 almost immediately here will suggest a strong upside trending move for these cycles. QQQQ is bullish above 36.50-.53.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 12:02:37 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/21/2005 12:09:57 PM

$USD & $GOLD On Friday (10:40 AM post), I presented a $GOLD and EUR/USD chart, indicating that shortterm trend had been broken and a decline was coming. Well, today's news --- -from Bloomberg "The dollar rose the most in 2 1/2 months against the euro after Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam suggested Asian central banks shouldn't rush to boost euro holdings at the expense of the U.S. currency." Link

$GOX Link EUR/USD Link

$GOLD Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:58:36 AM

OEX 566-568 might now be resistance. Watch carefully on any bounce.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:55:36 AM

Advdec line still trying to climb. As far as the OEX, we haven't yet seen a first 15-minute close above the 15-minute Keltner line currently at 563.91, a needed first sign of a steadying.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 11:54:42 AM

QQQQ's pullback from 36.50 found support at 36.45, and the higher lows have caused the 30 and 60 min channel tops to begin rising, with 30 min resistance up to 36.53.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 11:47:05 AM

Session low for April gold here at 430.70, -8.90 or 2.02%. Crude oil is down .30 at 56.95.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:43:41 AM

Advdec line still trying to rise. Some early signs of a potential bounce, but not a lot of substantiation as yet as to whether a bounce can hold.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:42:39 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute nested Keltner channel chart shows: The OEX created a breakdown signal a little more than an hour ago, but it hasn't dropped far since creating that signal. The current 15-minute period, it's testing the brekadown level, at 562.96. A 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at that level erases the breakdown signal, but that doesn't mean that it will necessarily climb. The Keltner support all still turns lower, and the OEX would need sustained 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 563.96 to even begin to flatten that support beneath the OEX. Bears should certainly be following the OEX lower with their stops, however, as risk of a bounce increases the lower the OEX goes.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 11:36:39 AM

QQQQ's short cycle upphase has kicked off, with 37.40 being tested now as the 30 min channel ticks up. Upside channel resistances looks like 36.50, the current intersection of the rising 30 min and declining 60 min channel tops. Provided that 36.35 holds as support, that level should rise.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:34:22 AM

OEX still trying to steady at its daily 130-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 11:28:18 AM

Rambus (RMBS) $17.36 +32.4% ... just off BLUE #4.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:25:50 AM

Advdec line trying to steady.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 11:24:49 AM

QQQQ breaks above its declining 7200 tick SMA resistance here at 37.36. Upside 30 min resistance is at 37.45, but the channel has stopped its decline. QQQQ bulls want to see price clear 37.40 to begin generating some upticks in the 30 min cycle.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:21:49 AM

VIX at 13.89, approaching levels not seen since January.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 11:20:51 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) ... slips red with fraction bid for benchmark bond. YIELD off 0.2 bp now at 4.509%. Pacholder High Yield (PHF) bid/offer $9.11 x $9.14.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:17:04 AM

The BIX is trying to bounce from above 350.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:16:36 AM

The TRAN still trades just above the 38.2% retracement of its rally off the January low.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 11:15:45 AM

Session high for June ZN futures at 109 5/64, with TNX down to a .2 bp gain at 4.513%, heading back toward unchanged after its earlier gains.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 11:24:55 AM

Starbucks (SBUX) $51.54 -1.86% ... stock I noted as bearish for longer-term LEAPs puts on Friday. I think bears smell more than coffee brewing here. Look for concernes to build regarding company's accounting and synthetic leases. Technicals have 200-day SMA ($50.40) rising and hasn't been tested since SBUX broke above in February 2003.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:13:30 AM

Support didn't hold. According to the 60-minute Keltner chart, 561.52 support is next, but that support appears tentative since the supporting line still turns lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 11:11:01 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 11:10:22 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 11:09:36 AM

No sign of strength for gold yet, with April futures down 7.30 at 432.30 here, HUI -2.48% at 211.83 and XAU -2.36% at 98.18. May crude is down .325 at 56.925, with the CRB extending its loss to 3.17 here at 316.03.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:07:19 AM

The OEX is now at Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, but that support turns lower and hasn't yet flattened under the OEX. It's still iffy as to whether the OEX will be able to climb, but it's reached potential support from several sources: this 15-minute Keltner support, the daily 130-ema and a downside target from one version of a H&S. I have not checked Fib levels yet to see if one of those is being tested.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 11:02:50 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 11:01:37 AM

Is the OEX's 60-minute H&S downside target being met? Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 11:00:09 AM

QQQQ is back to 36.35, exceeding its previous high and strengthening the short cycle uptick trying to form. A break above the declining 7200 tick SMA at 36.40 will stall the 30 min channel downphase and kick off the short cycle upphase, if the bulls can do it from here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 10:56:29 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.40 -0.57% ... breadth negative at 27:3. AIG $57.93 -3.07%, C $45.77 -2.32%, HD $37.95 -2.40% .... HPQ $20.26 +0.79%

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 10:53:21 AM

Rambus (RMBS) $16.85 +28.27% ... if looking to day trade RMBS, I'd use a 5-MRT from the second 5-minute trade ($16.11-$16.51).

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 10:49:49 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:49:09 AM

The OEX still tests the 130-ema on the daily chart. I'm still watching the advdec line for a sign of steadying, if nothing else, but I'm not seeing it yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 10:45:33 AM

Corning (GLW) $10.96 -1.26% ... slips below upward trend. "right shoulder" of reverse h/s begins to grow into ear.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:42:07 AM

The TRAN is only a few points above the 3725-ish 38.2% retracement of its rally off its January low. Potential bounce point? The 50% retracement is at about 3673.59.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 10:42:00 AM

QQQQ fell quickly once 37.35-.38 broke, and is now testing that level from below. The declining 7200 tick SMA resistance is above at 37.47, and both the 30 and 60 min cycles should remain bearish below it.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:39:14 AM

The OEX tests its daily 130-ema.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:35:11 AM

Just checked the OEX's 60-minute Keltner channel again and I note that the OEX is now facing potential Keltner support after all. It looks vulnerable to 561.63 until and unless it can produce 60-minute closes above the line currently at 566.04.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 10:33:57 AM

Volume is coming now on the decline- this looks news driven, but other than the explosion at the Ford plant, I've seen nothing yet.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:33:43 AM

The OEX's daily 130-ema is at 563.06. As I mentioned earlier, the OEX's 60-minute Keltner channel suggests it will get there.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 10:32:24 AM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $7.39 +14.9% ... here's my only chart with a PINK fitted 38.2%, which I've used from ALTI past observation. One trader is still long and these would be my suggested stops at this point. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:27:47 AM

The OEX tests Friday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 10:25:37 AM

From Marketwatch:

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- An explosion rocked the Ford Motor Co. (F: news, chart, profile) Rouge plant in Dearborn, Mich., early Monday, resulting in some fatalities, MSNBC reported. The recently renovated Rouge plant assembles the F-150 pickup, one of the Ford's best selling products. Ford officials were not immediately available to comment on the accident or its scope.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 10:24:59 AM

May crude is up .15 to 57.40 while ten year treasury yields drop to a 1 bp gain at 4.521%. QQQQ just lost 37.40, ES futures are testing the bottom of 1188-89 support and YM is testing 10600. The 30 min cycle upphase rolled over several hours early.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:24:26 AM

Advdec line still headed down. There's no sign of steadying yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 10:24:07 AM

Rambus (RMBS) $16.25 +23.8% ... updating revenue guidance ... Now sees Q1 sales between $37-$38 million, down from previous forecast of $38-$42 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 10:22:30 AM

Rambus (RMBS) $16.26 +23.8% ... higher after it and Infineion announced they have settled their patent infringement dispute. The companies did not provide details of the settlement in a news release, saying only that they agreed to dismiss all pending litigation and have released each other from all existing legal claims. Under the licensing deal, Infineon will pay Rambus $5.9 million each quarter starting in November and continuing through 2007. After 2007, Infineon may make additional payments up to $100 million, but only if Rambus enters into certain licensing agreements with other computer memory manufacturers. Infineon also has the option of acquiring other Rambus licenses under a "most-favored customer" status.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:20:44 AM

On the 60-minute Keltner chart, the OEX looks vulnerable to 561.83-563.93, so a test of the daily 130-ema looks possible, from a Keltner standpoint anyway.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 10:19:39 AM

No strength for QQQQ despite the bullish divergent 30 min cycle upphase that is only now starting to roll over. 30 min channel support is descending, now to 37.38, lining up with bollinger support on the daily chart. A failure here at the lows of the year will have next support in the 35.80-36.00 level on the daily chart, back at support from October 2004.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:16:43 AM

The advdec line has closed this morning's gap, still headed down.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 10:14:36 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:14:05 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart suggests potential downside to 563.67-564.95.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:09:50 AM

The OEX is following the BIX down into a retest of Friday's low. Still watching the OEX with respect to the daily 100/130-ema's, with the 130-ema down at 563.08.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 10:09:45 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link Friday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 10:08:36 AM

Session low for QQQQ, approaching 30 min channel support at 36.42. The 30 min cycle upphase from Friday afternoon will survive the dip if we see a bouce within the coming minutes- note that post-op-ex adjustments will affect the markets this morning, and there's the FOMC announcement tomorrow as well.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:07:27 AM

That first tentative hope didn't last long, did it? The OEX turns immediately back below the Keltner line currently at 566.39.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 10:06:26 AM

For all the anxiety in the currency markets ahead of the FOMC announcement tomorrow, TNX is up only 1.4 bps at 4.525%. This move is far smaller than what's occurring in the USD Index this morning.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:04:52 AM

BIX dipping minimally below Friday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 10:01:48 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 10:01:47 AM

First sign of hope for the bulls. The OEX bounced back above the 15-minute Keltner line currently at 566.49 before the close of the last 15-minute period.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 10:01:29 AM

QQQQ is swinging back up to test the 37.60-.61 level here. Preliminary keltner projections have resistance at 36.68, if the current bounce from 36.53 can stick. The BTK is strong this morning, but the bounce in the broad markets is so far weak overall.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 9:59:11 AM

VIX.X 13.45 +2.29% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.75, 12.94, Piv= 13.26, 13.45, 13.77.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 9:58:32 AM

BIX headed down this morning, not quite at Friday's low. Again, not a great sign yet for bulls. While we may be seeing some early opex-related trading, we're not seeing what bulls most hoped to see.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 9:55:56 AM

So far, the SOX has not been able to break back above its 200-sma, not a great sign for bulls.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 9:54:55 AM

The Fed's large 11B weekend repo expires today and has just been replaced with an 11.25B overnight repo, resulting in a net add of 250M for the day.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 9:53:24 AM

The OEX is testing the daily 100-ema at 565.99.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 9:52:52 AM

L-3 Communications (LLL) $70.25 -6.38% Link ... defense contractor under pressure after saying it has come under federal criminal investigation after one of its units supplied defective parts used in military emergency radios.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 9:51:17 AM

Bulls want to see a bounce back above the Keltner line currently at 566.42 before the close of this 15-minute period. Currently, the OEX looks vulnerable to 563.78-565.12 without that quick bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 9:47:27 AM

QQQQ lost support at the former 36.60-.61 high and is bouncing from Friday's confluence at 38.56. I'm flying blind without intraday data- should have my channels up within the next 45 mins or so.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 9:48:02 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 82.86 +0.88% ... strong above its WEEKLY R1 into tomorrow's FOMC meeting. AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 211.72 -2.53% ... sector loser early and sets up for test of converging 200-day SMA (209.66) and curling higher 50-day SMA (209.15).

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 9:45:50 AM

The bounce has stalled for gold, still down 6.8 at 432.80 on strong volume of 825 contracts so far. HUI is down 2.55% at 211.68, XAU -2.26% at 98.28. The CRB is also getting hit, currently down 1.93 at 317.27, with silver, cocoa, gold and live cattle futures leading the decliners.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 9:45:24 AM

The OEX looks likely to end this first 15-minute period above the Keltner line currently at 566.40, maintaining the hope that the OEX will keep its smallest Keltner channel pointed higher. At this point, that hope is somewhat questionable, however, as the first 15-minute's candle was a bearish engulfing candle, engulfing Friday's last 15-minute period's candle. Some evidence negative; some hesitantly positive. I'm not sure the dip is over.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 9:38:47 AM

SOX coming up to challenge its 200-sma at 415.82 with the SOX at 415.39 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 9:36:34 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.00 +0.03% ... updated with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 9:36:26 AM

Those hoping for an OEX bounce want to see 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 566.47.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 9:32:58 AM

Immediate downturn in the OEX. Watching the daily 100/130-ema's at 566.00 and 573.20 for potential support. Has to be a bit disappointing for bulls hoping to see a bounce up from Friday's doji.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 9:28:42 AM

Despite talk from Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam to the effect that Asian central banks should not rush to move to euros over dollars, as well as speculation about the accelerated removal of the Fed's "measured pace" language, treasury yields have dropped to a mere .4 bp gain for the ten year note yield at 4.515%. Gold has bounced to 432.80 after touching a low of 431.30, currently down 6.80 or 1.55%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 9:26:40 AM

QQQQ just touched a session high of 36.61, making good on the oversold upturn in its 30 min cycle as of Friday's close. On the 30 min and daily charts, upside confluence resistance is in the 37.05-.15 area. I'm without Friday's data for some reason, and therefore will be without intraday keltner channels for approximately the next hour.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 9:28:52 AM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $6.44 Link ... #7 on this morning's most active and jumping to $6.72. Note: Nearing its PnF chart's bullish vertical count of $7.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 9:29:28 AM

ONYX Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) $32.73 Link ... jumping to $36.57 and #4 on this morning's pre-market most active list. ONYX and Bayer Pharmaceuticals said that they will get an accelerated approval from the FDA for their experimental kidney cancer treatment (BAY 43-9006) after meeting a surrogate endpoint in a late-stage clinical trial.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 9:30:24 AM

Ask Jeeves (ASKJ) $24.24 Link ... gaining $3.46 to $27.70 and is this morning's most active after company confirmed they've reached an agreement with IAC/Interactive (IACI) Link to be acquired for $1.85 billion in stock. IACI slipped $0.56, or 2.5%, to $21.73.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2005 9:15:51 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.00 and set for program selling at $+2.82.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 8:55:31 AM

Thursday and Friday, the OEX consolidated near horizontal S/R and the daily 100/130-ema's: Link Friday's daily candle produced a doji, a potential reversal signal. Friday, the OEX also tested daily Keltner support in a configuration that prompted a bounce in January: Link The OEX may be ready to attempt a bounce from those daily 100/130-ema's, but it perhaps also remains vulnerable to a drop to the 130-ema. Any bounce should be considered a countertrend bounce until proven otherwise. Those who want to participate in a bullish play want to see internals supporting such a play and a majority of indices headed higher. Lately, we've seen many days when the Dow, SPX, and OEX might initially head higher, but techs might head lower, or days when the TRAN and BIX attempt a bounce, but no other indices follow. Days like that sometimes guarantee choppy market behavior until the indices line up more closely. On days like that, it's difficult to anticipate whether the bullish indices will pull up the bearish ones, or the bearish ones pull down the bullish ones. Anyone in a bullish play should have profit-protecting plans in place first for a test of the 50-dma near 571 and then near that converging resistance on the daily Keltner chart near 572.40.

Remember that there could be some initial volatility this morning due to opex settlement activity. Ideally, you'd like to see that volatility over before entering any position. We'll need to take a look once the markets open before any kind of downside play is considered. It's possible that the OEX could break to the downside out of the recent consolidation rather than to the upside, as many anticipate, but my gut feeling is that the OEX might at least have a stop-running attempt at a move higher before such a break-a throwover kind of move. Those anticipating entering a bullish position should be aware of that possibility, ready to jump back out of a play or take quick profits if that appears to be happening.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 8:48:29 AM

The US Dollar Index continues higher after a strong night, currently up to 82.90: Link . April gold is down 7.70 to 431.90 here, a 1.75% decline, May silver down 3.40% ro .251 at 7.14.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 8:32:51 AM

Session low for ten year treasuries here at 108 29/32, TNX up 2 bps to 4.531%. Euro futures are also at a session low of 1.3209. April Gold is down a whopping 6.10, losing 435 support. Next support is at 430 on the daily chart, being both confluence and Bollinger support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/21/2005 7:48:37 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1191.5, NQ 1493, YM 10638 and QQQQ +.06 at 36.57. Gold is down 3.5 to 436.10, silver -.123 to 7.27, ten year notes -.0938 at 108 31/32 and crude oil -.725 at 56.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for releast today.

Linda Piazza : 3/21/2005 7:11:57 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei was closed for a holiday Monday. European markets trade modestly higher, and our futures are modestly higher, too, having oscillated around the flat-line level most of the night. As of 6:56 EST, gold was down $3.50, and crude, up $0.16 to $547.40. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

A 7.0-magnitude earthquake hit Kyushu, Japan Sunday morning, killing at least one and injuring 500, according to news sources. Manufacturers located in the region also began assessing the damage to their facilities. Late news available through the Nikkei Net Interactive suggests that factories were not damaged.

The Nikkei was closed for a holiday. Japan's February trade balance and the minutes of the last Bank of Japan meeting were to be released today, but no news services, including the Nikkei Net Interactive, covered those numbers. Perhaps their release was postponed.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more gaining than losing. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.25%, but South Korea's Kospi slipped 0.05%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.14%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng inched higher by 0.04%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.30%.

Many European markets trade somewhat timidly this morning. European finance ministers met over the weekend, with the interpretation that the meeting resulted in a weakening of the Stability Pact. Building-related stocks and pharmaceuticals were in the news. U.K. builder Wolseley gained after earnings, and Swedish-Swiss group ABB soared after announcing an agreement reached with asbestos claimants. Drugmaker Schering dove after announcing that an investigational colorectal cancer drug did not show statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival rates, with Novartis dropping as a result, too. Bayer and Onyx Pharmaceuticals had better results to report in longer progression-free survival for their kidney cancer drug, with Bayer inching up as a result. A number of media companies have announced M&A plans, with SAP reportedly leading European stocks higher after Oracle threw a hitch last week into SAP's plans to acquire Retek.

As of 6:54 EST, the FTSE 100 has gained 15.90 points or 0.32%, at 4,939.20. The CAC 40 has gained 2.69 points or 0.07%, to trade at 4,053.46. The DAX had traded at 4.22 points or 0.10%, at 4,331.40.

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