Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Tab Gilles : 3/23/2005 1:09:34 AM

$USD & $GOLD Monday 12:09PM post I highlighted the decline in the EUR/USD and gold. We maybe nearing a short term support level soon.


$GOLD Link

$GOX Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/23/2005 12:02:38 AM

OEX Stocks that were sold the most during sell programs on Tuesday were C, MSFT, JPM, HIG, MDT, PFE, CCU, SBC, RTN, HD, LTD, BAX, WMT, GS, AXP, EK, VIA, HON, WFC, T, AIG, VZ, RSH, TXN, MEDI, NSM, ALL, CL, HPQ, BAC, AMGN, DIS, ORCL, HET, TWX, MO, AA, HNZ, INTC, KO, MCD and MMM.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 11:59:09 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program selling at $+5.24 and set for selling at $+1.90.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 11:40:46 PM

June Crude Oil Futures (cl05m) $56.15 -1.00% (30-min delayed) .... looks like oil prices are about to "rest." Link Continuous Oil ($WTIC) and conventional $0.25 box chart at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/22/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 7:36:53 PM

How far do you guys see the euro falling? June futures currently has a BEARISH vertical count hinting at 1.265. Chart from Dorsey/Wright & Associates at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 7:08:12 PM

Today, at 09:31 AM EST we reviewed how to calculated a BEARISH vertical count from the point and figure chart. Then at 10:58:07 reviewed BULLISH vertical count. In the chart below (DIA) we perform an old bullish vertical count (difference is we multiply by a scale factor of 3). However, as the DIA now moves above $100, our box scale changes from $1 increments to $2 increments. At these higher prices, a $1 move becomes "less meaningful," thus the PnF chartist will change box size to $2 increments. As such, we need to calculate the BULLISH vertical count in two different steps, but still add to the base X.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 6:35:05 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) Point and figure chart at this Link with the Sep. $96 put and April $112 Put observation overlay. As James Cramer would say ... "sold to you at $105.40, but I'll reel you in and I'm a buyer at $96."

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 6:01:30 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.53 -0.84% ... closing most active options at this Link where from 02:11 PM EST benchmark, I've placed PINK numbers to represent where that option ranked just minutes prior to FOMC announcement. $107 becomes a point of influence (RED SQUARED), while more than likely, the MAR06 $112/$114 calls were married and rose from less than 6 contracts having been traded. $104 may also become a point of influence this summer (summer doldrums) if I were to split the middle on those Sep. $96 Puts and April $112 puts. Here is the Link to the option chain captured at 02:11 PM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 5:08:28 PM

5-year yield ($FVX.X) up 56.2 bp since last 25 bp rate hike. 10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 47.0 bp since last 25 bp rate hike. 30-year yield ($TYX.X) up 31.0 bp since last rate hike. Would represent yield curve flattening and more negative for equities. U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) down 0.16 since last Fed rate hike.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 4:59:00 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link February 2nd Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 4:44:21 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 4:18:14 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 4:08:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... I did not profile any trades today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:58:20 PM

Corning (GLW) $10.95 -1.20% ... could have seen the last of $11.00. Time will tell.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:55:42 PM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $11.01 -0.54% ... back at prior bullish entry from 03/03/05 and very profitable bullish swing trade. Meanwhile... back at the mine. AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 206.21 -2.24% now at top of sector loser list.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 3:48:30 PM

QQQQ is back to the lows after failing at 36.25. The 30 and 60 min cycles are in gear to the downside, in sync with the daily downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:47:06 PM

Networking Index (NWX.X) 204.28 -1.18% Link ... breaking below their 09/28/04 relative low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:37:36 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.96 -0.43% ... breadth negative at 23:7. C $44.71 -2.31%, AIG $56.55 -2.31%, INTC $23.07 -1.78%, AXP $51.36 -1.7% .... BA $57.41 +1.0%, DD $51.79 +0.80%, MO $63.63 +0.53%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 3:36:02 PM

QQQQ's finding resistance at yesterday's low despite the deeply oversold short cycle oscillator. 7200 tick SMA resistance is dwon to 36.30 here, and the 30 and 60 min cycles remain bearish below it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:34:44 PM

Chiquita Brands (CQB) $27.64 +5.09% Link ... "going ape" and showing some relative strength. Sales up with company citing higher prices after flooding in Central America. Still some room to its currently building bullish vertical count of $48.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/22/2005 3:29:24 PM

We need a rally now in the last 30mns

Marc Eckelberry : 3/22/2005 3:28:38 PM

YM Trade Exit Point Alert -
Lower stop to 10509. Risk takers only from now on.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/22/2005 3:27:07 PM

NDX and COMP holding above key support. Imight lower that stop.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:26:02 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 207.10 -1.82% Link ... plunging below both 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/22/2005 3:24:41 PM

Stopped out of MSFT long at 24.08. -.08

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 3:17:53 PM

QQQQ has just broken yesterday's low on a steep spike. 30 min channel support is down to 37.15, followed by the old confluence from October in the 35.80 area. QQQQ is bearish below 7200 tick SMA resistance at 36.37.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:15:14 PM

June Fed Fund futures (ff05m) 96.92 -0.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:12:06 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 3:05:45 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link . So far, the higher dollar is hitting bonds, gold and equities. However, the drop in equities pales beside the sharp rise in yields and the dollar. And, while silver and oil got slammed, gold is down only .72% here- make that .90% to a new low of 427.40 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:04:29 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:03:32 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,179.01, DIA $105.13, QQQQ $36.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 3:01:51 PM

U.S. Energy Systems (USEY) $1.85 +70% ... selling some long here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:59:12 PM

DAILY S1s holding support for major indices. BIX.X 348.73 -1.01% weaker.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:56:02 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,179.50, DIA $105.18, QQQQ $36.38

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:51:44 PM

US Dollar Index chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:50:34 PM

The PPI announced today was 4.7% higher than it was in February 2004.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:47:33 PM

SPY has just broken yesterday's low, leading QQQQ to the downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:44:29 PM

Gold is back to testing yesterday's lows, currently trading 430 off a 429.50 low earlier. Ten year bonds continue lower to 108 13/32, TNX now up 7.4 b ps to 4.599%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:44:18 PM

Bids tough to find. So are up-ticks.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:42:35 PM

Session lows for GE, the Dow and ES futures along with SPY and QQQQ. The move has a trending feel to it, with 30 and 60 min support being broken across the board. 36.45 support is being tested now, below which yesterday's come into view at 36.25 with minor support at 36.37 in between.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:41:13 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,181.44, DIA $105.33, QQQQ $36.45

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:36:13 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:33:53 PM

Daily chart of the TNX- huge bullish engulfing hammer prirnted today: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:30:33 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.60 +0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:29:46 PM

10-year yield alert ($TNX.X) up 6.6 bp at 4.597%

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:27:03 PM

TRIN 1.01 +12.22%

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:26:06 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 4.3 bp at 4.568%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:24:55 PM

Session low for 10-year notes at 108 13/16, TNX now up 2 bps at 4.545%, and euros printed a session low at 1.3169.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:24:03 PM

QQQQ tests lower channel support still lined up at 36.50. The 30 and 60 min channels will turn down if the price holds below 7200-tick SMA resistance at 36.62. Large volume has come in, but the range continues to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:23:14 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,184.71, DIA $105.53, QQQQ $36.58

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 2:22:54 PM

Here's the regression channel for the OEX, as well as the red 21-ema, the blue 100-ema and the green 130-ema: Link So far, the OEX turns down from the resistance, but we've not seen a CCI rejection of the zero line just yet. If you're entering a bearish play on thoughts of a rollover in progress, want to see a new low quickly. If the OEX breaks to the upside, want to see CCI push upward through the zero line.

Have to step away for a while again.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:21:23 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,187.56, DIA $105.78, QQQQ $36.58

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:21:04 PM

QQQQ failed again at 36.75, back to 36.60. Amazingly, the range has yet to break. Link

Jim Brown : 3/22/2005 2:20:50 PM

Link to the full FOMC announcement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:20:00 PM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,189.09, DIA $105.95, QQQQ $36.67

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 2:19:32 PM

OEX still testing the channel's upper boundary, as well as the 60-minute 21-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:19:04 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) ... jumping higher. Down 2.9 bp at 4.504%. (MONTHLY R1) Expect some volatility.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 2:19:03 PM

The OEX is not pushing out of the descending regression channel in place most of this month just yet. Will it roll over toward the bottom of the channel instead?

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:18:57 PM










Jim Brown : 3/22/2005 2:18:20 PM

The decision by the Fed to retain the measured pace language will hold now until the next meeting scheduled for May-3rd. This gets us by the initial three weeks of Q1 earnings and sets us up for a fall into summer if the language disappears.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:17:56 PM

25 bp raise, "measured pace" language maintained.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:16:00 PM

QQQQ chart update at this Link . Announcement due now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:14:19 PM

Dow Diamonds option chain sorted by most active at this Link with VIX.X 13.18 -3.15%

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 2:15:19 PM

Checking back in ahead of the FOMC decision. As I type, the OEX challenges its 60-minute 21-ema at 566.20 and also the top of a descending regression channel in which it's traded since early March. It certainly looks as if it's preparing for an upside breakout through both, but that breakout will take the OEX right up into 566-568 resistance, with other resistance following quickly in about two-point intervals. Several layers of resistance come together in the 572-572.50 zone, so those in bullish positions or considering them--risky, since countertrend--should already know their profit-protecting plans for a test of that 572-572.60 zone. Remember, too, that the first move is not always the last one. If there's an upside pop, bulls do not want to see a quick reversal. This may be a better opportunity to look for a bounce-and-rollover bearish entry than for a bullish one, but short-covering rallies can be sharp and carry far, too.

Jim Brown : 3/22/2005 2:09:34 PM

With the TICKs and A/D line getting stronger by the minute ahead of the Fed announcement it makes you wonder what traders are expecting. There are plenty of rumors today that the Fed could actually jump +50 and drop the measured pace language. I do not see any positive potential for the meeting other than keeping the measured pace language. Interesting market action ahead of the announcement. I believe we could be looking at more short covering than actual anticipation of a favorable result.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:08:54 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:07:24 PM

2-day 50-tick chart of crude oil at this Link - testing channel support here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 2:02:02 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 2:00:45 PM

QQQQ collided with upside channel resistance below the 36.75 resistance line that has held back the advance since yesterday. The pattern of failures off that level has bounces occurring from higher lows since yesterday's session low, resulting in a rough bullish rising triangle below that line. There is no guidance from the intraday cycles, however, because they're chopped up and drifting sideways within the broader daily cycle downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 1:50:41 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.97 x $9.04

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 1:50:02 PM

10-year yield alert ($TNX.X) down 5.3 bp at 4.472%

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 1:48:47 PM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.94 +1.84% ... BLUE #2

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 1:48:38 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link with SPY, ES and YM futures making new session highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 1:47:23 PM

The 24B 4-week t-bill auction went off at a higher high-yield of 2.7%, and generated another soft bid-to-cover ratio of 1.77, up from last week's 1.75 level that was the weakest in 4 years. Despite that, ten year notes have risen back to the highs, TNX now down 4.5 bps at 4.481%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 1:36:02 PM

Session low for crude oil at 56.80.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/22/2005 1:31:37 PM

MSF found a solid bid at that important support. This is very good news for bulls. I'm going to leave the stop at 24.08, just in case we get some noise, but I expect 24.10 to hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 1:29:45 PM

QQQQ has just ticked up 4 cents, crossing the 7200 tick SMA for the first time since falling below it at 11AM. 30 min channel resistance is just above at 36.67, support holding at 36.50.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 1:20:53 PM

Checking in again, I see that the OEX has absolutely flat-lined on intraday charts, MACD flat-lining, too. It's officially on Fed watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 1:14:10 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 1:10:52 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 1:03:23 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/22/2005 12:59:02 PM

LONG MSFT 24.16, stop 24.08.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 12:58:28 PM

Crude oil is trading a very narrow range inside yesterday's range- currently down .40 at 57.05, off a low of 56.875 and a high of 57.55. Ten year notes have bounced back up slightly, TNX now down to a 3.4 bp loss at 4.489%. Gold and silver have given back their earlier gains, gold up 20 cents at 431.60 and silver down .02 at 7.085.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/22/2005 12:57:55 PM

I see MSFT as setting up for a very bullish reversal above 24.10, the 61.8% off Jan 04 low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 12:54:46 PM

Corning (GLW) $11.04 +2.03% ... bounces back to recapture upward trend after yesterday's breakdown. On 01/26/05 UBS upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" (closed $10.95). Then on 02/07/05, Needham upgraded to "strong buy" from "buy" (closed $11.76). Both might be defending those bullish calls.

Tab Gilles : 3/22/2005 12:52:43 PM

Some of my charts are giving me a buy signals on $INDU & $SPX...however, I'm still early on any call and waiting to see FED action before commiting to any call.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 12:46:50 PM

I.D. Systems (IDSY) $11.60 +24.06% ... gets some volume at high of day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 12:44:29 PM

U.S. Energy Systems (USEY) $1.35 +25% ... hmmmm.... U.S. Energy Corp. (USEG) $7.31 -4.44% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 12:41:45 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 12:25:52 PM

Most Actives .... MSFT $24.14 -0.24%, QQQQ $36.58 (unch), CSCO $18.12 +1.0%, ERTS $57.39 -13.63%, JDSU $1.72 +1.17%, SUNW $4.16 -1.18%, SPY $118.67 +0.48%, ORCL $12.52 -1.02%, GM $29.72 +0.13%, AIG $57.06 -1.45%

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 12:22:29 PM

Turning back to the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart before I sign off again for a while, here's what I see: not much, unfortunately. The OEX climbs toward 567.65-ish resistance, with today's pattern when isolated looking a bit like a bullish right triangle with a flat top and higher lows. Perhaps it's pointed up toward a test of that resistance from 566-568. However, if it slips, support lines separate beneath it, and look weaker than resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 12:20:59 PM

Because the volume has dried up, QQQQ's tick chart appears stalled in a sideways short cycle downphase. On the time-driven charts, QQQQ's 30 min cycle indicators are in a corrective downphase, and the 60 min cycle indicators have stalled on a bearish kiss. Because of the lack of volume, the indicators will follow a strong move in either direction. The daily cycle continues to point down. The lack of movement has the intraday Keltner bands tightening, with resistance down to 36.72 and support up to 36.50 QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 12:16:54 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 12:14:36 PM

The OEX rise off yesterday's low still looks like a possible bear flag, and the OEX has still not been able to maintain 60-minute closes above the 50% retracement of the decline that immediately preceded it, at just under 566.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 12:10:14 PM

The SOX is still above the 200-sma, but off the high of the day, pausing below 418-418.60 resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 12:07:56 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 12:02:11 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 12:04:19 PM

Checking in again, I see that my 10:32 supposition might have been right: indices were perhaps already at that point being maneuvered into pre-FOMC decision levels. I note that the OEX is still parked just underneath the daily 100-ema at 565.95. When I look at the 30-minute nested Keltner channels, I see that the OEX has not yet been able to manage a 30-minute close above the Keltner line depicted in my 10:19 post. That line is currently at 566.65. The OEX needs that 30-minute close above that trendline before there's even a minor change in trend.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 11:49:23 AM

Stepping away for 20 minutes.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/22/2005 11:49:12 AM

BUY LU limit 2.80, stop 2.69.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 11:48:59 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 44.91, or 4.491%. YIELD chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link Junk Bond bulls most likely want YIELDS to ease back below 44.25, or 4.425% for junk bonds to see capital appreciation.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/22/2005 11:47:58 AM

LU showing a nice daily bullish divergence and massively oversold. I might enter a trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 11:30:24 AM

Ten year notes continue to weaken, with TNX up to a 2.6 bp loss at 4.499%. Crude oil is down 20 cents at 57.25 off a low of 56.875, while QQQQ is holding within the 10 cent range that has prevailed for most of the morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 11:19:15 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 11:11:57 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 11:07:23 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link . QQQQ has traded very light volume of 23.56M shares so far today.

Tab Gilles : 3/22/2005 11:04:12 AM

ERTS- Electronic Arts Dragging down $GSO. Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 11:02:34 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 11:01:25 AM

Ten year notes remain firm, with TNX holding its 4 bp loss at 4.485%. The daily chart is on a fresh sell signal, with a bearish divergence on the 10-day stochastic. A break of 4.44% would be enough to kick off a new daily cycle downphase, with a break below 4.4% serving as confirmation for ten year bond bulls: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 10:58:07 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $57.38 -0.89% ... point and figure chart with example of Bullish Vertical Count calculation at this Link . Risking $3 to a sell signal at $54, which would negate current bullish vertical count. Potential reward of $52 should AIG achieve bullish vertical count of $110.00. Relative strength chart vs. the Dow Industrials at this Link is negative. Currently on a sell signal and column of O.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 10:46:16 AM

New session low for crude oil here at 56.90, but QQQQ continues to struggle below 36.65.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 10:42:29 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $57.19 -1.22% Link ... taking one (1) of the Jan06 $60 Calls for my personal account. I had profiled puts for this insurer back in October at these levels, should have profiled calls.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 10:33:56 AM

I'm stepping away for a while. Not sure when I'll return, but I'll try to peak at the computer screen when I can and let you know what I see. (I'm supposed to be on vacation, but since a computer is sometimes accessible, I'll try to help out as much as possible.)

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 10:32:29 AM

Are indices being parked at pre-FOMC decision levels already? It's possible. The OEX is being parked being 566-568 resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 10:32:09 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 10:30:05 AM

The OEX, at least, isn't responding much to that climb in the advdec line today. It's still pausing beneath the daily 100-ema at 565.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 10:24:51 AM

Ten year notes have eased off their highs, TNX up to a 4 bp loss at 4.485%. Crude oil is down to a session low of 57.075 here, with QQQQ bouncing back to the 7200 tick SMA.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 10:24:27 AM

Is the TRAN trying to form an inverse H&S? Link If so, it may be time for the TRAN to pull back into a right shoulder formation and steady at the right-shoulder level until we know whether the formation will be invalidated or the TRAN will round up and complete the formation. A caution, though: the TRAN sometimes does away with right-shoulder formations entirely, just moving straight across the neckline area. For now, though, the TRAN pulls back as would be expected.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 10:19:22 AM

A look at the OEX's 30-minute Keltner chart: Link Without that change in trend, the OEX looks vulnerable to 561.90-563.10.

Tab Gilles : 3/22/2005 10:17:15 AM

SMH Semiconductor Holder Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 10:15:36 AM

Volume is light so far, with 14M QQQQ shares traded. QQQQ has lost the rising support line off yesterday's lows and is coming back for a test of the 36.45-.55 chopzone. There is now a double top at 36.75 since yesterday, while intraday direction remains up for grabs within the ongoing daily cycle downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 10:12:44 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 10:10:38 AM

Gold remains firm this morning, trading up 1.2 to 432.60, with HUI +1.46% at 213.91 and XAU +1.04% at 98.8, all retracing part of yesterday's losses.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 10:10:22 AM

Forgot to look at the TRAN earlier. It zoomed higher. Watch for a potential double-top formation or for a press above 3800 to invalidate that. The TRAN is at 3783.74 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 10:05:45 AM

VIX.X 13.55 -0.44% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.95, 13.23, Piv= 13.61, 13.88, 14.26.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 10:02:26 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 10:02:13 AM

The more I look at the OEX's 15- and 60-minute charts, the more the rise off yesterday's low looks like a bear flag. If so, it shouldn't press much higher than a 50% retracement of the decline that immediately preceded it or perhaps a 61.2% retracement at the most. That 50% retracement at 565.93 was tested yesterday and the OEX may be trying to retest it now. The 61.8% retracement is at 566.81, so a move past that level would certain warn bears that something else was going on. I would say that bears could watch for a breakdown from that flag, but the advdec line's level and its trajectory don't support the idea of a bearish play at this time.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 9:55:44 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just announced a 3.75B overnight repo to replace the 11.25B expiring repo from yesterday, for a large net drain of 7.5B for the day.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:54:44 AM

No decline in the advdec line yet. Just a steadying.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:52:44 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner channels don't give clear evidence this morning. The OEX's candles are caught in a web of Keltner lines, but without any clear weighting of support over resistance or vice versa. There's the slightest hint of resistance being stronger than support, but only a hint.

Mark Davis : 3/22/2005 9:52:05 AM

Congrats Linda!

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 9:52:01 AM

QQQQ failed at yesterday's high, but another attempt from a higher low would set up a bullish triangle below 36.75. The 30 min channel is ticking up, but the cycle picture remains choppy and directionless. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:51:13 AM

Excuse my typos this morning. I wanted to be here for readers as long as I could, but I'm working on about two hours' sleep and, more happily, with a less-than-12-hour-old granddaughter in my arms.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:50:09 AM

The SOX also faces its daily 100/130-ema's, I just noted, both near 520.60. Scanning the chart, it appears that these averages do have some relevance to the SOX's trading pattern, with multiple opens, closes, highs or lows at those averages over the last months. Daily CCI turns higher from below the zero line, but hasn't crossed the zero line or produced any of a number of recognized CCI signals for bullish entries, so evidence is mixed as to the SOX's ability to climb over those averages.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:45:54 AM

The OEX's daily 100-ema holds as resistance. So far.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:42:30 AM

The RLX gains this morning.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:41:30 AM

When researching the Asia/Europe report, I noted some semi-related weakness, but the Deutsche Bank upgrade to ASML must have mattered more. The SOX has pushed above the 200-sma and 50-sma, still facing the 200-ema at 423.53.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:38:59 AM

The BIX isn't moving far yet, still near the flat-line level.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:38:31 AM

The OEX is still caught between its daily 100-ema at 565.94 and its 130-ema at 563.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 9:37:34 AM

Session high for ten year bonds at 109 11/32, with TNX now down 4.6 bps at 4.479%, a 1.02% drop this morning.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 9:35:43 AM

Checking in for a few minutes. The OEX climbs within its flag like formation on its 15-minute chart, toward 565.40-566 resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 9:33:34 AM

QQQQ breaks its morning high here, back above the 7200 tick SMA at 36.61. Upside channel resistance lines up at 36.77, support at 36.43. The opposition of the 30 and 60 min oscillators suggest chop, failing a break of the channel range.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 9:33:23 AM

Alcan (AL) $40.03 +0.62% ... looks like a "buy" here with a target of $42.45, stop below yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 9:31:03 AM

Netflix (NFLX) $9.31 ... two questions. One regarding NFLX and the other regarding how to calculate bearish vertical counts. Chart of NFLX at this Link . This stock is a "sell" in my opinion with upside risk to $13.50 and downside risk to $0.00. Relative Strength Chart vs. NDX.X at this Link , which has been negative/weak since mid-February is currently on a "sell signal," but column of X. Would initiate 1/2 bearish positions, round to full on NFLX bounce to $11.00 (3-box reversal into overhead supply).

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 9:19:22 AM

Session high for May crude oil at 57.45 and gold at 432.5. QQQQ is trading 36.61, stuck in yesterday's chop with the 30 min cycle ticking lower against the 60 min cycle ticking higher.

Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2005 9:09:07 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.06 and set for program selling at $+2.52.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 8:58:37 AM

From the Financial Times:

GE Capital, a unit of General Electric, has withdrawn a $2bn loan facility for General Motors and its suppliers days after credit rating agencies warned that the carmaker could be downgraded to junk bond status.


Jane Fox : 3/22/2005 8:45:25 AM

A great big Congratulations to Linda and we all hope new mom and baby are doing well.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 8:32:38 AM

Bonds and equities are holding their gains, and the sudden pop 4 minutes before the scheduled release looks like a "prelease" trade, for what it's worth. QQQQ has gone positive, +.02 at 36.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 8:31:29 AM

PPI +.4% vs. .3%, prior +.3%.

Core PPI +.1% vs. 0.0% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 8:26:00 AM

Session highs for ten year year bonds, ES and NQ here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/22/2005 7:45:06 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1186, NQ 1489.5, YM 10577 and QQQQ -.08 at 36.50. Gold is down a dime at 431.50, silver +.039 at 7.144, ten year bonds +.1719 at 109 13/64 and crude oil -.15 at 57.30.

We await the PPI and Core PPI data at 8:30, est. .2% and unchanged respectively.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 7:13:49 AM

As of 10:51 last night, I am a grandmother for the fourth time, to Corinne Grace, 7 pounds. I will be away from the MM most of today and perhaps tomorrow, too, but will stop in when I have time. Some of you may know that when my third grandchild was born just a year ago last week, it was quickly apparent that something was wrong, with her fragility eventually being diagnosed as due to a life-threatening metabolic disorder. It's with relief and happiness that I report that Corinne Grace is a vigorous baby who shows no signs of sharing her cousin's disorder.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 7:07:34 AM

Monday's OEX action was inconclusive. Here is the daily Keltner chart: Link Here are the daily 100/130-ema's: Link The OEX's 60-minute 21-ema at 566.60 has retarded upward movements since 3/15, so a breakout above that MA on a 60-minute closing balance would possibly signal a change in tenor, but if an upside breakout above that MA occurs, bulls should have profit-protecting plans in place near 568, 570, and 572.50. Bears will be looking for a rollover at one of those levels, but they'll want to see the climb continue to look bear flag-ish.

Of course, the warning must be offered that pre-FOMC meeting, technical setups might not see follow-through as indices get maneuvered toward important resistance or import support.

Linda Piazza : 3/22/2005 6:53:46 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei closed lower, as did most other Asian markets. Many European markets trade lower, too. Our futures moved sideways to slightly higher into the European open, dropped, and now try to recover, most near the flat-line level. As of 6:19 EST, gold was unchanged, and crude, down $0.06 to $57.40. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Despite an attempt to move into positive territory during the early afternoon session, weakness in chip-related stocks weighed down the Nikkei. The index closed down 37.84 points or 0.32%, at 11,841.97.

Most other Asian markets closed lower. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.66%, but South Korea's Kospi was one of the few Asian bourses to gain, climbing 0.12%. In South Korea, GDP rose a less-than-expected 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, but still rose at the fastest rate in a year. Q4 GDP slowed 3.3% from the year-ago growth. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.05%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.42%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.96%.

Most European markets fall, too, with broker upgrades and news driving many stocks. Upgrades included a Deutsche Bank upgrade to semi-conductor equipment maker ASML, a Lehman Brothers upgrade to insurer Allianz, and a Morgan Stanley upgrade of Schering. Morgan Stanley cautioned that investors were wrong to take Schering's colorectal cancer drug out of the forecasts just yet, although Schering announced yesterday that it was delaying filing for regulatory approval after a trial failed to produce a statistically significant increase in progression-free periods.

In other stock-specific news, German hypermarket operator Metro beat profit expectations and rose. British mobile operator O2 fell after disappointment with its outlook. The Bank of Ireland climbed after affirming an earnings outlook in line with expectations and plans to trim jobs. Investors in U.K. metals and materials group Johnson Matthew weren't so happy with in-line expectations, however, especially when coupled with a slight drop in expectations for its pharmaceuticals group. Forklift and industrial gasses manufacturer Linde rose after giving an upbeat outlook. SAP appears to have lost out on its bid to acquire Retek, with Oracle apparently being the victor.

As of 6:47 EST, the FTSE 100 fell 19.60 points or 0.40%, to 4,913.90. The CAC 40 fell 15.27 points or 0.38%, to 4,017.73. The DAX fell 6.71 points or 0.16%, to 4,289.65.

Market Monitor Archives