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OI Technical Staff : 3/24/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 7:13:35 PM

Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link Note: I'm using today's 03:00 PM EST tick for the Dollar's weekly close, but it will continue to trade through Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 4:49:08 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 4:37:52 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity ... I did not profile any trade today. Weekly Trade Blotter ... I did not CLOSE out any trades this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 4:00:18 PM

Session low for QQQQ at 36.27, with 30 min channel support now lined up at 36.25.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 3:54:49 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.45 +0.03% ... at a preliminary close of $104.50 I'd calculate next week's pivot levels as $103.03, $103.77, Piv = $104.94, $105.68, $106.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 3:53:33 PM

Today feels anything but bullish, but the fact remains that there's a higher high and a higher low following yesterday's doji star. That doji resulted from a swift rejection at the lows, which lows coincided with an oversold daily cycle. Failing a break of yesterday's low early next week, 1st kicked off by a break of 36.25 QQQQ, the daily cycle will likely print a buy signal next week to kick off a new daily cycle upphase. While that upphase may prove to be merely corrective, the bias will nevertheless shift from bearish to bullish on the key daily cycle.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 3:52:40 PM

Time to make a decision as to whether to hold over a long weekend, and it's a decision that's going to be more difficult than usual to make. The OEX verges on a breakdown signal on its daily chart, but it has not (as of this writing) produced such a signal. It looks at this writing as if the OEX is going to produce a gravestone doji at the bottom of a drop, following yesterday's doji. This could be part of consolidation pattern forming before another drop, but also signals uncertainty about sending the OEX lower without an opportunity to test resistance and see if it's going to hold. I see a thorny branch of Keltner lines above the OEX on that daily chart, perhaps suggesting a choppy rise if there is a bounce. Those lines have not yet converged into rock-solid resistance, but a few more days of consolidation would do the trick, with that resistance likely forming between 564-566 or 570.50-572.00. If the OEX is going to bounce very far, it needs to do so early next week and strongly next week or it's going to be trapped in all those thorny resistance levels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 3:42:27 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.46 +0.04% ... back near unchanged. AIG $55.48 -2.16% and XOM $58.89 -1.98% defensive toward their close.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 3:40:02 PM

It's possible that the OEX could remain caught in this tangle of Keltner lines through the end of the day. Link A daily close below the line at about 556.40 would create a new breakdown signal. Even if the OEX should continue to bounce, the thorny lines could make the bounce choppy and unpredictable, which is why I don't like countertrend plays. I would imagine that the 554-556 level will be defended, though and then bears will need to wait patiently for another rollover entry.

For now, those in bearish plays should have profit-protecting plans in place for 558 and again near yesterday's low, if the OEX should find support at one of thsoe levels.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 3:36:09 PM

QQQQ is breaking decisively below the rising expanding wedge support lineat 36.43, and while volume is shaping up to be among the lightest of the year, it's predominantly on the sell side here. 30 min channel support is down to 36.35 and falling, but 36.25 remains the key support below which the daily cycle's uptick will begin to "undraw" itself.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 3:35:22 PM

The OEX is falling after its breakdown through the flag's support. Bears should remain cautious, ready to take quick profits if offered.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 3:34:11 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X)

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 3:32:16 PM

The TRAN has nearly erased yesterday's losses.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 3:31:44 PM

The SOX is maintaining values above the 200-sma, but still can't maintain values above the 50-sma. Perhaps that's because the 100-sma and 200-ema lurk just above that average. There's a river of MA's above the SOX. It needs a strong surge to move through them and stay through them.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 3:28:00 PM

I just don't feel comfortable with the shape of the advdec's stall, as it had started to round over but then just flattened a bit. I'm not seeing the confirming weakness in the advdec line that I'd like to see. I remain wary of a potential trap for bears.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 3:25:35 PM

Checking back in, I see that the OEX is breaking below the support of its bear flag rise off yesterday's low, but the break has been minimal so far. Those engaging in a bearish play on this break will not want to see a quick reversal back above the ascending trendline off yesterday's low and should be aware of the possibility that the OEX might find support again at yesterday's low or above it. The OEX has, however, printed two 60-minute doji below or at the 60-minute 21-ema and the top of the descending regression channel in which the OEX has traded most of this month. It's now printing a confirming candle showing weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 3:25:25 PM

Couldn't get the push. Thought they might try to peg at session high toward the close. Still time, but move "should have" been made back above BLUE #4 at $6.79.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 3:21:31 PM

raising stop to $6.69 on LEXR

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 3:15:57 PM

Lexar Media (LEXR) $6.77 +114% ... taking 1,000 long here in personal account, target $7.42 toward the close. Stop under BLUE #3 ($6.60).

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 3:14:43 PM

QQQQ intraday chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 3:12:36 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 3:08:08 PM

A spike lower here came within 2 cents of testing lower rising expanding wedge support and combined 30/60 min channel support for QQQQ at 36.42.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 3:03:15 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 3:00:22 PM

Looks like a breakout for program trading activity on the NYSE, with the latest week's program trades averaging a whopping 71.4% of the total: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:55:14 PM

Pathmark Stores (PTMK) $6.03 +34.8% ... pecentage gainer comes to test opening highs. Volume building.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 2:52:31 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:49:37 PM

Synergy Brands (SYBR) $4.27 +39.54% ... correction to early post. #2 on percentage gainer, not the most active list.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 2:42:50 PM

The SOX is losing its rising intraday support as well on the break of 419.25, dropping to a .83% gain at 418.32 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 2:36:58 PM

QQQQ is back below 7200 tick SMA support on the break below 36.55. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:42:25 PM

Synergy Brands (SYBR) $4.07 +32% ... jumps to #2 most active. No news that I can find, but volume heavy at 1.65 million. Average daily volume about 60K.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:31:02 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 349.51 +0.37% ... have been either side of WEEKLY S1. Not much of a directional signal to the upside considering Treasuries calming a bit in today's trade-shortened session.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:28:34 PM

II-VI Inc. (IIVI) $17.70 -0.84% Link ... after a 2:1 stock split.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:27:21 PM

Activision (ATVI) $16.71 -1.82% Link ... after a 4:3 stock split.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:26:06 PM

Beazer Homes (BZH) $52.57 +1.46% Link ... after a 3:1 stock split.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 2:24:32 PM

The US Dollar Index is firm again today, still not clearing the resistance band just above 84, but showing no weakness at the highs for the daily cycle upphase. The bullish stochastic divergence I've underlined results from bullishness in the longer cycle as well, and accounts for the sharp move off teh lows. A break above this week's resistance has next resistance at 84.5, then at 85.3. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:20:19 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $16.09 +2.81% Link ... upgraded to "above average" at Caris & Company today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:12:42 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $16.69 +2.96% ... high of the day and moves up to #6 on today's most active.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:11:51 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 2:05:54 PM

May crude oil futures are trading again, with IB quoting the Nymex contract higher by .80 at 54.60, +1.49%. Gold and silver on the Ecbot remain closed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 2:02:41 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 1:59:44 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with QQQQ bouncing from 7200 tick SMA support on a burst of volume.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 1:44:58 PM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $6.32 +6.39% .... sitting on that 61.8% retracement. Price action highly correlated to market psychology with oil prices. Today's 5-MRT BLUE #5 pretty close to $7.00 and PnF chart's bullish vertical count that was achieved on Monday.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 1:43:37 PM

QQQQ is bouncing from above the 7200 tick SMA and rising to challenge the short cycle downphase resistance at 36.57.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 1:38:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 1:27:12 PM

QQQQ extends its slow motion slide off the 36.62 top, with 7200 tick SMA support at 36.50. Volume is running very light, with less than 4M QQQQs traded in the past half hour. The short cycle oscillators have turned down, but the 30 min cycle will hold an upside bias until price breaks south of 36.50. So far, there's little conviction in the light volume: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 1:18:09 PM

Genentech (DNA) $58.86 +1.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 1:13:25 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 1:05:21 PM

The cash bond market has closed for the holiday weekend, with TNX -1.6 bps at 4.591%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 1:02:01 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 1:00:02 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:57:01 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $56.11 -1.04% ... just noticing that stock hasn't been able to trade ABOVE prior session high for 11 sessions (including today).

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:52:59 PM

Starbucks (SBUX) $52.49 +2.04% ... bugger strong today and sets up for test of rising 21-day SMA and falling 50-day SMA at $52.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 12:50:59 PM

QQQQ pulls back from the 36.60-.64 confluence, but in slow motion on the tick chart, with volume light at 48.7M.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:50:40 PM

Buy Program Premium just about 15-minutes ago (first of the day). Came at about SPX 1,178, DIA $105.00

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 12:49:19 PM

The CRB is negative again, down .44 at 306.07 with coffee, natural gas and silver leading to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:45:57 PM

VIX.X 13.05 -7.18% ... just under WEEKLY Pivot for first time this week. I studied last night's option chain for DIA and couldn't come up with anything that I had conviction behind. Did see a late sell of 1,000 contracts in the April $105 puts right at the close, and at the bid, but that was it. Looks like that was a winner trade. DIA $105.07 +0.63% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 12:39:49 PM

Session high for QQQQ here, headed for 36.65 which is nested 30 and 60 min channel resistance, and printing a bad tick to 38.60 as I type. Quotetracker users can click ctrl-shift-h over the chart until it disappears.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:38:08 PM

Speaking of volume .... see volume spike of 1,000,000 shares 12:00-12:02 PM EST take place in American Intl. Group (AIG) $56.22 -0.84% at approximately $56.19. "Has to be" sell induced in my opinion after stock traded up at $57 at open, then plunged to as low as $56.00, stabilized, then the volume. Banc of America removed AIG from its focus list citing legal risks. BofA replaced with Nike (NKE) $83.78 +2.87%. Hmmmm.... shoes!

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:33:34 PM

News of large block trade in Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $59.07 -1.69% ... intra-day volume study looks like it may have been crossed at $59.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 12:32:46 PM

Session high for GE here as ten year notes drift lower. QQQQ is holding above rising 7200 tick SMA support, now at 36.50. The short cycle is less overbought than it was on the last attempt at the 36.60-.64 confluence. Link

Tab Gilles : 3/24/2005 12:28:54 PM

SMH Semi's performing nicely today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:25:34 PM

Comcast (CMCSA) $33.69 +0.38% Link ... will replace Sears (S) in the S&P 100 ... congratulations Comcast, you've made it to the "big time!"

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:22:50 PM

Continuous Gold ($GOLD) Link ... on conventional $2-box, bearish vertical count building to $404 Tab. $418 looks to be critical support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 12:21:16 PM

Ten year treasury yields continue to chop along below 4.59%, with TNX currently up to a 2.1 bp loss at 4.586%. The 30 min cycle has yet to turn, but the oversold intraday cycles favor a bounce above 4.56% support. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:18:21 PM

Sears/Kmart ... with merger complete, the merged company will trade under the NASDAQ stock symbol of SHLD and Sears Holding Company. SHLD will replace Sears (S) in the S&P 500

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:31:23 PM

General Electric (GE) $36.05 +1.54% ... presses best levels of the session after raising Q1 outlook. Takes over #1 spot in S&P 100 market cap weighting. Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $59.00 -1.79% slips back to #2.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 12:14:55 PM

Back to find QQQQ breaking upward out of what appeared to be a small bear flag and clearing back above the 7200 tick SMA. The 30 min cycle downphase has aborted, and a break above the 37.60-.64 confluence would confirm a new upphase. With pre-holiday volume light, that resistance should be strong, as it was this morning- but with the daily cycle trying to turn up from oversold and the intraday-cycle bears fumbling the ball, a higher high and higher low today would be just what the bulls want to see.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:12:29 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/24/2005 12:04:51 PM

Jeff, I'm targeting gold at 200-ema $420. and the EUR/USD at 1.2739 level. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 12:03:41 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 11:57:17 AM

Harmony Gold (HMY) $8.01 -5.87% Link ... looks set to test multi-year low of $7.51. Volume building.

Tab Gilles : 3/24/2005 11:51:53 AM

Yesterday Jeff and I brought up 2 closed end funds, PHF & EVV. Just to expand on EVV, which I follow... Link

Here's a hourly chart of EVV and the Five Year $FVX. Note the bullish hourly divergence on EVV. Link

EVV/FVX daily chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 11:48:07 AM

Adaptec (ADPT) $4.66 -7.35% Link ... notable new 52-weeker and nearing bearish vertical count of $4.00. RBC Capital Markets comes with a downgrade after the network storage provider lowered guidance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 11:47:32 AM

Stepping away for 15 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 11:48:23 AM

This will likely be my last post before leaving. Here's what I see: The OEX still remains within the potential bear-flag, and is perhaps rising another time to test the 60-minute 21-ema at 561.76 and the top of the rising regression channel. It's also testing, at the same time, the 50% retracement of the last plunge, off Tuesday's high, with that number at about 561.77. It's going to be increasingly troublesome for bulls if they can't move the OEX above that 50% retracement and out of that descending regression channel. Trouble is, I'm not so sure how much downside there might be, either. Daily Keltner support can be found near 556.50, and it would take a strong thrust through that level to keep from being drawn back by that magnetic support. So, I can imagine a scenario in which the OEX does plunge below yesterday's low, perhaps down toward 554, but then quickly reverses again, closing back above that daily Keltner support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 11:45:14 AM

Session low for silver at 6.93 and euros at 1.2978. Gold is holding negative, with HUI -1.1% at 199.71 and XAU -.69% at 93.27.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 11:44:08 AM

Most Actives ... LEXR $6.57 +107.25%, QQQQ $36.47 +0.57%, MSFT $24.30 +0.53%, CSCO $17.97 +1.23%, SPY $117.56 +0.46%, ORCL $12.45 -0.47%, INTC $23.48 +0.38%, YHOO $31.77 +2.91%, LU $2.76 +1.84%, SIRI $5.36 -1.29%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 11:40:45 AM

Nymex crude is trading 53.625 here, off a low of 53.45.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 11:32:04 AM

Dialing down to a five-minute OEX chart, I see that the OEX earlier completed a H&S on this chart, neckline at the five-minute 100-ema. That average is now at 560.44 and the OEX is coming up to test it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 11:30:31 AM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $54.50 -0.43% (30-minute delayed) ... bouncing along that 61.8% retracement.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 11:25:11 AM

QQQQ is holding below 7200 tick SMA resistance at 46.47, bouncing off the now descending 30 min channel support. This is a very choppy morning so far, but QQQQ will be bearish on a 30 and 60 min cycle basis so long as it stays below the 7200 tick SMA. The uncertainty arises from the oversold daily cycle, which is just starting to try to turn up.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 11:16:08 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 11:15:35 AM

Advdec line is in danger of keeling over. Watch this and then watch the OEX's supporting trendline off yesterday's low to see if bear-flag support is breaking. I'd be very careful with a bearish play, if so inclined, though, because of the potential that it's only going to go low enough to re-establish where support. A drop through yesterday's low would perhaps look more damaging than a mere bear flag break.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 11:13:32 AM

Time to take a look at nested Keltner channels to see what they show us. I'm looking at 30-minute versions because they've shown some relevance to OEX trading over the last week or two. If the OEX should close the current 30-minute period below a line currently at 560.21, these channels suggest a dip toward 558.00-558.40. If it should close this 30-minute period above that Keltner line currently at 560.21, the charts suggest a push up toward 562.00-562.50. At that level is the Keltner combination of lines that has been stopping the OEX on thirty-minute closes over the last week or two. If the OEX produces 30-minute closes above those lines, the chart suggests a push toward Keltner lines now at 566.50-567.25, but those lines still descend and might be closer to 565.50-566 before the OEX could test them.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 11:08:57 AM

Netflix (NFLX) $8.91 -3.04% ... dives below $9.00. Trader question from earlier this week.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 11:08:27 AM

As I surmised it would do, the OEX is turning down within the potential bear flag it's forming, but it hasn't yet broken through that flag's support, and I'm not sure that we know yet whether it will do so or not. I suspect that we'll see another push up toward 561.80-563.00 before we know for sure.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 11:08:15 AM

Quick plunge back below 7200 tick support and now testing the lower 30 min channel support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 11:06:14 AM

QQQQ is back below 36.50 and is now testing rising 7200 tick SMA support at 36.46.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 11:04:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 11:00:32 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 1.8 bp at 4.589%. WEEKLY R1 finds yield support (selling) early on. Dashed green upward trend is LONG-TERM trend from the June 2003 low to March 2004 pullback. Chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 10:59:34 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:53:46 AM

The OEX still has not made an upside breakout above the 60-minute 21-ema and the top of the descending regression channel that's been in place most of this month, but neither has it fallen below the potential bear flag's support. May be time for a red candle within the flag's formation. Draw a trendline under yesterday's high and watch for a trendline break as a break of the flag's support, but be aware that a move might be just to retest yesterday's low and establish it as support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 10:47:24 AM

Session low for gold here at 424.40, -1.10, with HUI -1.41% and XAU -.93% at 93.03.

Jane Fox : 3/24/2005 10:47:10 AM

DAteline CNN U.S. Supreme Court refuses to intervene in Terri Schiavo case. Lower court decision to remove feeding tube stands.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 10:44:45 AM

Research in Montion (RIMM) $76.00 -0.71% Link ... slips into gap.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 10:39:11 AM

30 min channel resistance is up to 36.64 QQQQ here with the short cycle upphase maxxing out in overbought territory. If 36.50 holds on a pullback, then it will begin trending as the 30 min and 60 min cycles work higher- but the odds favor resistance at 36.64 holding for the first try at least.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 10:36:08 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:33:56 AM

I'm going to be away for a chunk during the middle of the day. I'm still officially on vacation, but staying near the computer as much as possible to help out when I can. I'll post as frequently as possible until I leave, shortly before noon.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 10:31:39 AM

QQQQ printing a high volume break of 36.50- bulls need to hold north of this level. The 30 min cycle has turned up, with 7200 tick SMA support up to 36.42.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:31:44 AM

The OEX pushes up toward that 60-minute 21-ema and the top of the descending regression channel again, with the 21-ema at 561.99 and the top of the channel at about 563.20.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:29:58 AM

The advdec line has paused, but hasn't really pulled back.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 10:29:23 AM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 7,154 +0.38% ... Here's an updated bar chart with two conventional retracement and pattern recognition at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 10:27:43 AM

Ten year treasuries have eased off the highs, with TNX back up to a 2.4 bp loss at 4.583%. Ten year treasury bulls need to see a break of 4.56%, but the 30 min cycle is getting bottomy at current levels. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:25:10 AM

The OEX has still not been able to move above the 60-minute 21-ema or the top of the descending regression channel in place for most of this morning, but still stays inside the potential flag formation. No upside breakout but no downside breakdown, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 10:18:49 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , coming back for a test of 7200 tick SMA support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 10:14:17 AM

NASDAQ NH/NL Chart updated through yesterday's trade at this Link . Yesterday's daily ratio was 21.3%. Its lowest reading for 2005.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:13:31 AM

There does appear to be some hesitation as the OEX approaches its 60-minute 21-ema and the top of the descending regression channel that has been in place most of March as sellers come on the scene again, but the OEX isn't really drawing back too much.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 10:11:45 AM

NYSE NH/NL Chart ... updated through yesterday's trade at this Link . Yesterday's daily ratio was very "oversold" at 7.6%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 10:10:15 AM

Crude oil is up .375 at 54.175 here. Gold is up a dime at 425.60, with HUI +.49% at 202.92, XAU +.46% at 94.35.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 10:10:06 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:08:28 AM

OEX bulls want to see a first 60-minute close above 560.25 to begin to stop the descent of the smallest of its Keltner channels on that chart.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:06:18 AM

So far, the OEX's actions have fit those needed to complete a morning-star reversal pattern on its daily chart. The day is far from over, however, and the OEX has yet to have pushed above the 60-minute 21-ema and the top of the descending regression channel in which it's traded over the last couple of weeks. No confirmed change in trend just yet, then, while the possibility of such a change is maintained.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:02:41 AM

Dow just over 10,500, Nasdaq just over 2000: both still withing "testing" levels. Important tests going on.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 10:02:28 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:01:52 AM

The BIX climbs strongly, now having topped yesterday's high. Bulls want to see the BIX maintain values above $350.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 10:01:38 AM

Headlines:

9:59am U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES SET RECORD IN SOUTH

9:59am U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES BEATS EXPECTATIONS OF 1.14 MLN

9:59am U.S. FEB. NEW HOME INVENTORY RECORD 444,000

9:59am U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES AT 2ND HIGHEST EVER

9:59am U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES UP 9.4% TO 1.226 MLN

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 10:01:15 AM

QQQQ spikes up here to 36.50. Upper channel resistnace for both the 30 and 60 min cycles is at 36.55, but a break of 36.50 would violate strong confluence resistance from Tuesday and yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 10:00:40 AM

SOX at its 50-sma again.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 9:59:20 AM

Advdec line still climbing. As some of the futures writers have been noting, lately the advdec line has been more reliable a market guide than the TRIN. Right now, its trajectory isn't supporting the idea that the OEX is likely to roll down at the resistance pinpointed in my 9:55 post.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 9:58:53 AM

The Fed's open market desk has announced an 8 day repo of 6.5B, which results in a net add of 1.25B against the 5.25B expiring.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 9:55:46 AM

I'll be watching carefully as the OEX tests the red 21-ema on this chart and the top of the descending regression channel. Link A breakout here should have bears standing aside for a while, to see where the climb ends. Bulls should be aware of the possibility of a rollover again.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 9:52:48 AM

VIX.X 13.39 -4.76% .... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 13.44, 13.74, Piv= 14.18, 14.48, 14.92.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 9:51:55 AM

The OEX has today again been testing the 38.2% retracement of the last plummet, off Tuesday's high, with that retracement just under 560.70. The OEX has not yet been able to maintain values above that retracement, but may be aiming toward the 561.77 level that's the 50% retracement. The formation in which it's climbing off yesterday's low still looks like a potential bear flag on the 60-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 9:47:27 AM

QQQQ breaks lower below 7200 tick SMA support at 36.36. 36.25 support is next, below which the 30 min cycle downphase will confirm: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 9:47:05 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.77 +0.32% .... back to WEEKLY S1 here. Breadth positive at 25:5. Gainers have GM $29.16 +1.74% Link GE $35.87 +1.09% Link and CAT $94.31 +0.71% Link Losers are SBC $23.27 -0.55% Link AIG $56.49 -0.37% Link

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 9:42:44 AM

SOX again dealing with the 50-sma, which has seemed to be as stiff a resistance level as the 200-sma over the last week. That 50-sma is at 418.93, with the SOX currently at 416.73.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 9:41:19 AM

Darden Restaurants (DRI) $29.95 +9.42% Link ... new 52-weeker after strong earnings report. Approaching its PnF chart's bullish vertical count of $31.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 9:35:47 AM

The OEX's 60-minute 21-ema is at 562.03 this morning, with this average having stopped the OEX (on 60-minute close) since 3/15.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 9:33:34 AM

Wild Oats (OATS) $10.51 +13.48% Link ... company's Schedule 13D filing with SEC showed investor Ronald Burkle owns 2.62 million shares of OATS common stock.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 9:33:03 AM

The Fed's open market desk has 14.25B in various repos expiring today. So far, a 9B 14-day repo has been announced, leaving 5.25B with which to deal at the 10AM announcement of shorter-term operations.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 9:32:58 AM

The SOX is above the 200-sma again.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 9:32:04 AM

The OEX opens where those hoping for a morning-star pattern hope it will open and it climbs, but it's early yet and we've see some early morning climbs soon reversed lately.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 9:31:48 AM

TNX is up off its lows, currently down 2.5 bps at 4.583%. Still awaiting the new home sales data at 10AM. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 9:30:53 AM

QQQQ dips at the cash open, with a downside spike printed to 36.30 a minute ago: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 9:29:48 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $30.87 Link ... higher at $31.90 and #2 among this morning's most active after company's board OKs $3 billion stock buyback.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 9:30:21 AM

Lexar Media (LEXR) Link jumps 95% to $6.19 and is atop this morning's pre-market most actives after a California court ordered Japan's Toshiba Corp. to pay Lexar $380 million in damages on ground Toshiba was liable for theft of trade secrets.

Jeff Bailey : 3/24/2005 9:17:57 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.05 and set for program selling at $+2.22. OEX Stocks that were sold the most during Wednesday's sell programs were EXC, MDT, MER, WMT, HD, JMP, SO, FDX, AXP, MCD, HAL, VIA, MWD, IP, HIG, XOM, HON, AA, TWX, PEP, C, USB, GS, HNZ, HPQ, AIG, SLB, BHI, DIS. NDX Stocks that were sold the most during Wednesday's sell programs were PCAR, ADBE, VRSN, WYNN, EXPD, SSCC, CHRW, NTLI, RIMM, ERTS, SBUX, LAMR, AMZN.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 8:44:42 AM

The current bounce has QQQQ back to 36.44, not yet touching the 36.50 overhang that held back yesterday's advance. The 30 min cycle oscillators are still pointing south, though the channel is flattening because of the premarket bounce above 7200 tick SMA resistance. The bulls need to clear 36.50 after the cash open to reverse that downphase. The NQ futures are showing the first daily cycle bullish kiss in many weeks, and the bias will soon be shifting to the upside. The question is whether the 30 min downphase will be able to run its course for the next few hours, or whether it will abort here. A break of either 36.50 or 36.25 will tell the story.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 8:43:42 AM

The OEX ended Wednesday having produced a near-doji at the bottom of a steep decline, with that doji produced on the 200-ema at 557.24. Today, market watchers will look for signs that the OEX could produce a morning-star formation at support. Such a formation would be produced if the OEX opened at or above Wednesday's close and then moved up from there. With the OEX also having bounced slightly from Keltner support on the daily chart, such a bounce or further consolidation remains a possibility, and futures action currently supports such a possibility.

Daily Keltner lines are not yet converging close enough that it's possible to tell where resistance might be strongest, but, according to the chart, it exists near 560.70, 563.90, 567.09, 570.97 and 573.48. I'd like to add another level to watch, the 60-minute 21-ema, currently at 562.15. This MA has been capping upside moves for a couple of weeks. Bears seeking new entries would want to watch for a rollover at one of those levels.

However, one possibility that the daily chart presents is that the OEX could be forming a H&S at the top of its climb. If so, the OEX could even climb up to the right shoulder level near 578 before flattening and then deciding on final direction, but bears would want to see a flag-shaped climb. Such a flag-shaped climb might produce choppy trading conditions, and likely upside seems somewhat difficult to assess, but those who engage in a risky countertrend bullish play should pay particular attention to the 60-minute 21-ema and then 564-567 level as potential rollover levels.

What if the OEX doesn't open at or above Wednesday's close and climb from there, despite what futures suggest? The OEX has been falling through a descending regression channel, and Wednesday turned down from the midline of that regression channel. It may still be susceptible to rolling down into a retest of Wednesday's low. Remain aware of that possibility.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 8:34:35 AM

Bonds have strengthened along with equities, TNX -2.2 bps to 4.588%, with QQQQ up .19 to 36.45. Gold and silver remain weak, gold down .70 to 424.80 here, though oil is holding its gains, +.575 to 54.375.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 8:31:42 AM

Headlines:

8:29am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 31,000 TO 2.67 MLN

8:29am U.S. 4-WK. AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 3,500 TO 321,750

8:29am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 3,000 TO 324,000

8:30am U.S. FEB. CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT ORDERS UP 32.1%

8:30am U.S. FEB. DURABLE GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.6%

8:30am U.S. JAN. DURABLE ORDERS REVISED TO -1.1% FROM -1.3%

8:30am U.S. FEB. DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS FALL 1.6%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/24/2005 7:43:40 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1178.75, NQ 1484.5, YM 10503 and QQQQ +.12 at 36.38. Gold is up .20 at 425.70, silver -.055 at 6.93, ten year bonds +.17 at 108 17/32. and crude oil is up .575 at 54.375.

We await the 8:30 release of durable orders, est. +.8%, initial claims, est. 315K, and at 10AM, New home sales, est. 1.15M.

Linda Piazza : 3/24/2005 7:21:36 AM

Good morning. Conflicting economic outlooks offered by two releases produced coiling action on the Nikkei last night. The Nikkei closed modestly higher, with other Asian markets producing mixed results. European markets mostly trade in positive territory. Our futures have climbed throughout the night. As of 6:39 EST, gold was $428.10, and crude, $55.25. CSFB raised its oil price forecast almost $8.00, and noted that crude prices should remain above $40.00 for several years, through 2009. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Japan's first quarter business survey, a survey of big firms, fell 0.6%, down from the previous quarter's 2.1%. Hopes had been for a 4.1% rebound. Those big firms expect capital spending to drop 7.4% year over year, but expected to see recurring profits rise 8.2%. The results fueled worries that the Japanese recovery might be plateauing. A review of the tertiary and all industries activity indices beat expectations, however, with the January tertiary industry activity index rising 2.2% from December's number and the all-industries figure rising 2.4%. Heavily weighted retail and wholesale figures propelled the tertiary industries number higher, and January's growth in industrial production helped send the all-industries figure higher. This number had been greeted more enthusiastically. The Nikkei soon broke into positive territory after Thursday's open, but spent the rest of the day coiling. It closed higher by 6.85 points or 0.06%, at 11,745.97.

Many exporters rose, but Toshiba fell heavily after Lexar Media won damages against Toshiba and Toshiba America Electronic Components. The case involved breach of fiduciary duty and theft of trade secrets related to flash memory technology.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted declined 0.31%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 1.08% after a report that Macquarie Securities had cut the rating on the country's shipbuilding industry. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.30%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.05%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.54%.

Most European markets trade in the green. BP turns lower in the U.K. after yesterday's Texas City plant explosion. In stock-specific news, Deutsche Bank revised lower its 2004 net profit due to the settlement of the WorldCom litigation, but ameliorated any negative reaction by also noting that it would raise its dividend by 13%, trim board compensation and seek permission from its board to initiate another stock buyback program. Prudential rose after it announced that Chief Executive Jonathan Bloomer would be replaced by Mark Tucker, a move that Bloomer understandably found disappointing. Luxury goods maker Hermes International reported earnings, with FY 2004 net profit dropping, but operating profit beating earlier guidance. Reinsurer Scor dropped after its earnings announcement. Perhaps of interest to U.S. investors, General Electric mulls over an offer for NIB Capital Bank NV, a Dutch commercial lender and investment bank, with GE trading higher in pre-market trading.

Various German states are reporting March CPI figures, with the pan-German number to be released at a time not yet announced. Some states are reporting increases in the 0.3-0.4% range, with fuel costs blamed for the rise.

As of 7:04 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 14.30 points or 0.29%, to 4,924.70. The CAC 40 had climbed 27.28 points or 0.68%, to 4,059.69. The DAX had risen 12.15 points or 0.28%, to 4,329.35.

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