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Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:10:10 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.66 and set for program selling at $+2.06. For the week of 03/14-3/18, program trading averaged 71.40% of the NYSE volume. Buy Programs were 48.65% of the total program trading volume. Sell Programs were 51.35% of the total program trading volume. Pure index artitrage (when a buy/sell premium was generated) was 11.40% of the total program trading volume.

OI Technical Staff : 3/28/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:53:41 PM

I'm doing research for the Asia/Europe report tomorrow morning and note that in Japan, February's household spending dropped more than expected and unemployment rose, rather than staying steady at January's rate, as had been expected. Retail sales dropped, too. The numbers were disappointing, and, that, coupled with ex-dividend selling of stocks, has hit the Nikkei tonight.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:34:30 PM

Reader Question: Thoughts on oil?

Response: I don't watch oil as closely as some do, but your question was forwarded to all of us writers. You might consider addressing your question to Tab Gilles, who does follow oil quite closely and often has insightful observations based both on fundamentals and chart characteristics, or you might watch for one of his frequent posts on crude.

However, I had recently taken a look at crude costs and will mention what I've seen as long as there's an understanding that this is not investment advice, but merely a discussion of chart characteristics taken out of the context of fundamentals. On the daily chart, crude appears to have met an upside target for a continuation-form rough inverse H&S, and is now pulling back within the rising regression channel that was established beginning in late December. The bottom support of that rising channel is roughly congruent with the 30-dma, currently at $53.72, so there's a chance that crude costs could again bounce from the linked 30-dma and bottom channel support, as it did in early February. Daily CCI has not yet turned up to indicate a bounce in the making, and so there might be at least another day of testing that 30-dma before we know whether CCI will turn up and prices climb again within the channel or prices will break through support instead.

What if prices fall and the contract closes below the 30-dma and that channel? There's obvious historical and MA support from $49-51.00. On a weekly chart, I've noted that the 30-week moving average has had some importance in the contract's trading behavior. There's tentative bearish price/MACD divergence on that weekly chart, suggesting that it might be time for some sideways trading or for the contract to retreat and retest that 30-week MA, currently at $47.88 but still rising sharply, to re-establish support. I suspect that by the time that crude could flatten or retreat toward the 30-week MA, that average might have risen closer to that $49-51.00 potential support zone. Before anyone talks about flattening or retreating to test deeper support, however, the contract has to break out of that rising regression channel, and it hasn't yet done that.

We all know that prices can continue rising while bearish price/MACD divergence continues, of course.

These are just some chart observations that may or may not be helpful. The crude contract, as you know, is more dependent on geopolitical and economic developments than many. If China should announce some program meant to radically slow its economy, some might conclude that demand for all commodities might drop, including crude. If an OPEC member suggests that prices should quickly escalate above $60.00 and stay there the rest of the year, speculators might bid the contract higher. So, chart characteristics are helpful, but have their limitations in this contract more than in most. Perhaps some of the other writers might have different responses, and I look forward to reading them as you might, also.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 6:09:17 PM

Kellogg (K) $42.83 +0.02% ... like many stocks in the last 60-minutes of trade, bidders vanished from high of day $43.39 to the close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 5:42:27 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 4:53:18 PM

Closing Internals at this Link . With three (3) days left in the month, NYSE volume is averaging 1.71 billion shares per day, up 11% from February's 1.54 billion. NASDAQ volume running a slow 1.83 billion per day, down 6% from February's anemic 1.94 billion per day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 4:40:52 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 4:06:19 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity initiated/revised stops for GLW and MRK positions. (see 10:19:29 AM EST and 10:30:17 AM EST)

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 4:01:13 PM

The Nasdaq inched down below the 200-sma at the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 4:00:58 PM

Session lows for QQQQ just printed, but not yet testing Thursday's 36.24 low.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 3:58:46 PM

The OEX is falling toward tentative 15- and 30-minute Keltner support, but that's light support only, and the OEX remains vulnerable to lower values after failing to push through resistance. We'll take a closer look tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:57:06 PM

QQQQ $36.36 +0.24% ... just off session low of $36.34 and first undercut of WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:56:01 PM

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 415.92 (unch) ...

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 3:54:17 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Trading on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange was halted Monday due to an elevator fire near the trading floor, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:52:15 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.47 -4.63% ....

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:51:36 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 198.18 -0.58% .... losing their luster toward the close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:49:25 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.95 +0.48% ... WEEKLY Pivot .... again. AIG $57.04 +2.57% , GM $28.28 -3.48%

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:47:40 PM

Merck (MRK) $31.80 -0.21% ... slips to lows of the session.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 3:45:57 PM

Today, the OEX has traded within a rectangular consolidation pattern that's been building with the daily 200-ema serving as rough support and with today's and Thursday's highs serving as rough resistance. No breakout, barring something exciting happening in the last few minutes of trading.

Remember that we have March consumer confidence tomorrow (not U of Michigan version, though), and some might take positions ahead of that into the close. With today's action, it's hard to guess whether those will be long or short positions.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 3:41:59 PM

Today's action has so far held a higher low from Thursday's print, but failed to even tag the high. Volume is a fraction of Thursday's weak 77.7M, with just 53.4M QQQQs traded so far. The 30 min cycle has rolled over from a lower oscillator low, but it's far from decisive given the light volume. Barring a sharp move before the close, we will have an inside day on light volume, strongly suggesting a strong break tomorrow. The daily cycle suggests that it will be to the upside, but because the daily cycle upturn occurred on Thursday's and today's light volume gains, even that signal is iffy.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:38:07 PM

Herley Industries (HRLY) $17.02 -0.81% ... lows of the session. Company announcing it has received a modification (follow-on) to an existing contract in excess of $3.3 million with the Navy to supply Tactical Instrument Landing Systems for both the F/A-18F and E-2C Naval aircraft.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 3:38:04 PM

The OEX still can't break to the upside or the downside. The RLX still looks strong. The SOX again has fallen back from its early morning HOD. The BIX hasn't quite been able to maintain 350, although it does maintain most of the day's gains so far. Mixed evidence. No wonder the OEX traders are stymied.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 3:34:35 PM

Another dive below rising intraday support for QQQQ: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:34:20 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 500.51 -1.14% ... lows of the session and lone sector loser.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:32:22 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,176.86, DIA $104.97, QQQQ $36.42.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:33:21 PM

Parker Hannifin (PH) $59.73 -11.6% Link ... motion control products maker lower and sharp break of 200-day SMA (64.41) after lowering outlook.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 3:27:31 PM

The OEX still just prints candles along its 60-minute 21-ema, as it's been doing since the first hour of trading concluded.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:23:30 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $57.19 +2.85% Link ... session highs after The Wall Street Journal reports company is likely to sever all ties with Herb Greenberg.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 3:16:41 PM

TNX closed higher by 3.4 bps at 4.625%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:14:44 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 3:13:22 PM

So far, the OEX sees an immediate (next 15-minute candle) reversal down through the 15-minute 100-ema after pushing up and testing the 100/130-ema's. That's not what bulls want to see, but it hasn't closed this 15-minute period yet and is trying again to push above the 100-ema, at 561.82.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2005 3:06:55 PM

Dateline CNN Fifty people died on the island of Nias, near the epicenter of a massive earthquake off Indonesia, a government official told CNN.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 3:06:52 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 3:04:37 PM

QQQQ never broke 36.55, and is now selling back to the 7200 tick SMA at 36.49. The narrow sideways range has the short cycle oscillators chopped up, with no directional bias. Volume has yet to clear 50M shares, compared with the 97.8M average.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 2:59:54 PM

It also looks as if the OEX is going to produce its first 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 561.58 since 3/15, another small sign of a change in trend. Remember, though, that the OEX is going to hit Keltner resistance that looks stronger at about 565 on the 30-minute chart, lower on the 15- and 60-minute charts. I mentioned this morning that an upside breakout would soon slam into further resistance.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 2:52:26 PM

The OEX has punched above the 15-minute 100-ema for the first time since 3/15. It hasn't produced a 15-minute close above that average and instead is still within testing distance of it, especially since it hasn't broken above the 130-ema, but this is still its first attempt to move above that average. The 100-ema is at 561.81 and the 130-ema is at 561.57. Bulls do not want to see a quick reversal now.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 2:46:50 PM

Session highs for Dow and SPX futures here, QQQQ and NQ holding back.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 2:44:11 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,178.79, DIA $105.13, QQQQ $36.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 2:44:08 PM

QQQQ has whipped back above the rising intraday trendline and 7200 tick SMA support here. The zone between 36.35 and 36.55 feels like a blender. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 2:43:28 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.11 +0.64% ... best levels of the session. Short covering cited.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 2:38:52 PM

Still no 30-minute OEX close above the Keltner line currently at 561.55, resistance for the OEX since 3/15.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 2:36:33 PM

Bonds have slid back, giving back their slight post-auction gains with TNX back to 4.63%, up 3.9 bps.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 2:40:18 PM

iVillage (IVIL) $5.79 +0.87% Link .... session high and challenging trending lower 50-day SMA here. Stock found some buyers last week on IAC/Interactive (IACI) $21.58 +2.32% news that it was purchasing Ask Jeeves (ASKJ) $27.30.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 2:34:36 PM

I'm watching the TRAN as a sort of first responder today, but it's consolidating, too. The 15-minute chart hints at a potential H&S with a neckline at 3744.88 or so, but with the right shoulder not yet looking fully formed. A move above 3780 would invalidate the formation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 2:34:08 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.97 +0.50% .... either side of its WEEKLY Pivot so far today. AIG $56.94 +2.39% now atop today's component percentage gainers. GM $28.57 -2.49% still stuck in reverse.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 2:32:25 PM

I think that potential inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, forming in a congestion zone, has now extended the right shoulder so far in time that we can discount the formation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 2:32:26 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $55.15 -0.89% (30-minute delayed) ... still below WEEKLY Pivot ($55.87) here and did find some buyers at my 61.8% $54.51 on word of Tsunami warnings for Asia Pacific region.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 2:27:20 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $19.60 -1.06% ... some chatter that new CEO could be names as early as tomorrow. One name being mentioned is NCR CEO Mark Hurd, where NCR's stock has surged 322% since Mr. Hurd took over.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 2:23:25 PM

New LOD for the advdec line.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 2:23:15 PM

QQQQ's lost 36.45 support and is coming in for a test of channel support, with the 30 min channel ticking lower to 36.35. A short cycle downphase is in progress, and despite the low volume chop, this break looks bad for bulls following the failure at 36.55.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 2:22:13 PM

Most Actives .... QQQQ $36.43 +0.44%, MSFT $24.32 +0.16%, SPY $117.50 +0.31%, CSCO $17.97 +0.50%, INTC $23.47 +1.29%, LEXR $5.62 -11.07%, LU $2.72 -1.44%

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 2:17:11 PM

The OEX still trades sideways out of the descending regression channel, with sideways trading after a breakout--either an upside or a downside one--still suspicious. The 15-minute 100/130-ema's are at 561.81 and 561.61, and appear to be playing a part in capping upside moves.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 2:10:59 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 2:04:09 PM

Steep drop back below the 7200 tick SMA for QQQQ, currently challenging 36.45 support: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 2:02:59 PM

Tentative downturn in the advdec line.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 2:02:17 PM

No OEX 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 561.56. It still holds as resistance on a 30-minute closing basis.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 2:02:04 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 1:56:47 PM

QQQQ's shaping up for an even lighter volume day than Thursday's 77.7M. So far, 38.1M shares have changed hands approaching 2PM.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 1:56:17 PM

There's potential for the OEX to produce the first 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 561.58 since 3/15, but if so, it looks like the close above that Keltner line would be a minimal one and perhaps not of great importance. Still, with the advdec line turning up, albeit slowly, this might bear watching. The OEX is at 561.54 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 1:56:12 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.50 -3.47% ... speculative gold/copper producer remains weak, suggests speculative gold bugs not looking for a bottom at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 1:52:28 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 199.38 +0.02% ... edge green.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 1:50:30 PM

The daily cycle has ticked up to a bullish kiss for QQQQ, with the 30 min cycle stalled in its upphase. Despite the shallow break below the 7200 tick SMA earlier, the 30 min cycle never turned down, only stalling briefly. On this basis, QQQQ has a bullish bias above 36.45, with current channel support lined up 8 cents below that.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 1:38:01 PM

I've mentioned before that the RLX is either remarkably sensitive to market developments or perhaps even leads them at times. It's easy to see where the RLX support comes in, and where strong resistance is likely to be, just by an examination of the moving averages: Link Market bears would perhaps like to see the RLX keel over beneath its 200-sma, in blue on that chart, and below Thursday's low. Bulls would like to see a sustained push above the 50-dma, in pink on that chart.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 1:34:11 PM

The BIX is above 350, but not yet above Thursday's intraday high.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 1:31:19 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 1:30:38 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.93 +0.46% ... comes back for another challenge of WEEKLY Pivot. Breadth holding positive at 25:5.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 1:26:08 PM

The TRAN threatens to slip below its daily 21-ema, an average that does show some importance on the TRAN's chart for many months. The day is far from over, of course, but this should perhaps be watched. The 21-dma is at 3753.71 with the TRAN at 3754.48 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 1:20:14 PM

After peeking above the 7200 tick SMA briefly, QQQQ has slipped back below. The 36.55 line is once again intraday resistance, and with QQQQ tading both sides of the 7200-tick line here, bulls will want to see 36.55 cleared before trusting even short cycle strength from here. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 1:17:26 PM

Thanks, Marc, in refernce to my 1:15 post. I had read earlier that it was a false alarm, but then read the "visual confirmation" part, so didn't realize that was old, too.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 1:16:22 PM

Most actives ... QQQQ $36.51 +0.66%, SPY $117.63 +0.41%, MSFT 24.35 +0.32%, LEXR $5.66 -10.44%, CSCO $18.05 +0.95%, INTC $23.58 +1.72%, LU $2.73 -1.08%

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 1:16:15 PM

Bulls will have noticed that there's a sort of inverse H&S-ish formation on the OEX's intraday charts. It's roughly formed, setting up in the midst of consolidation, but it may bear watching. I'm not sure where to place the neckline, but I'd estimate at about 562.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 1:14:17 PM

My forex trading platform is offering visual confirmation (from their windows) that NYC police have cordoned off Time Square, but not much beyond Time Square, with the report being that they're investigating a suspicious package.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 1:12:13 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 1:09:18 PM

That 60-minute 21-ema isn't defining support or resistance so much as it's just telling where the OEX is likely to close any 60-minute period. It flattens and so does the OEX. MACD on that chart still turns higher, so that I'm getting a different kind of contrarian indicator from the MACD than from the advdec line. The MACD turns higher, but the OEX can't make any forward progress, regardless, which should be telling us that bulls don't have the needed strength. But the advdec line keeps moving lower, although it might be trying to steady as I type, but prices don't really move far, which should be telling us that bears don't have the needed strength to drive prices lower despite that negative advdec line. So, it's a stalemate.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 1:08:47 PM

The 13-wk and 26-wk t-bill auctions are over. The 19B 13-wk auction generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.5 with a high rate of 2.78%, a mere 2.5B of which went to indirect bidders (foreign central banks). The 17B 26-wk auction generated a bid-to-cover of 1.99 with a high rate of 3.09%, with foreign central banks taking 3.9B of the total sold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 1:02:59 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 1:01:19 PM

Here's the conclusion from my first OEX-related post this morning: I don't yet see any bullish divergences on the 30-minute chart to show that it's likely for the OEX to bounce, but futures are indicating at least a steadying attempt is underway. If a bounce occurs either from Thursday's close or from a dip toward Wednesday's low, look for a potential failure near 564-565 or 570.50-572. Based on the chart evidence, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rolling over and new leg down today, either, without much of a bounce. Charts say that's possible, although instinct tells me that it's time for a bounce. I think that chart evidence (indicative of underlying developments) and instinct are probably warring with more people than with me today, and that might be one reason for this non-action.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 12:59:43 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , still on very light volume. Ten year bonds are firming as the treasury auctions come to a close, TNX now down to a 3 bp gain at 4.621%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 12:56:08 PM

June Crude Oil futures (cl05m) 30-minute itnerval chart with my bullishly fitted 38.2% retracement (PINK) and recent WEEKLY Pivot levels at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 12:49:56 PM

One 60-minute view of the OEX: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 12:48:46 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 12:42:46 PM

Nymex crude is trading sideways here, down .70 or 1.28% at 54.15. Gold is up 1.1 at 425.90, with HUI -.37% at 198.61 and XAU +.04 at 93.01.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 12:40:11 PM

I'm puzzled. There's still no 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 561.61, the line that's stopped OEX advances since 3/15. The advdec line still drops. In light of the continued holding of this Keltner resistance (and other resistance) and the continued dropping of the advdec line, I would expect support to give way, but it hasn't. At the slightest attempt, the OEX bounced again. So is this bearish or bullish? I'm confused and others might be, too, and we might see some choppy action as a result.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 12:40:08 PM

ETF Heatmap at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 12:37:50 PM

Earthquake map spotlighting activity in Pacific Rim last hour at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 12:29:17 PM

Taylor Devices (TAYD) $6.15 +84.29% ... atop today's percentage gainer list. No news that I can find.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2005 12:26:48 PM

Dateline CNN U.S. agency urges evacuations along coasts of countries on Indian Ocean due to tsunami fears after 8.2 earthquake.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 12:26:11 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link . 30 min channel support lines up with the 60 min channel bottom at 36.35, edging lower despite the bounce off 36.40 support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 12:23:44 PM

Bonds haven't budged for the past hour, with TNX just ticking down to a 3.5 bp gain at 4.626% as the treasury auction gets underway. Awaiting the 1PM results.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 12:19:13 PM

The OEX did not quite meet the 559.71-ish downside target for its three-minute H&S, but it came close. This means that bears were able to set up a bearish formation, confirm it, and then almost push the OEX low enough to meet the downside target. So far, that's still not a good sign for those hoping for a many-day bounce.

The advdec continues lower.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 12:11:19 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 12:07:26 PM

A gap down on the OEX's three-minute chart, with the OEX immediately bouncing to fill it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 12:06:43 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,175.26, DIA $104.77, QQQQ $36.46

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 12:04:45 PM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link showing little movement despite the break of 7200 tick SMA support. Volume remains very light, with 30.1M shares traded so far today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 12:03:12 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 12:02:37 PM

The advdec line still isn't steadying. Maybe, though, at some point, if the OEX continues to trade sideways while the advdec line drops, that will begin to look more bullish than bearish. Early in the day, the advdec line's drop was occurring while the OEX was still climbing, and that looked bearish. Conflicting information, still.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 12:01:05 PM

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) $8.45 +0.83% ... off session high of $8.51 after Tsunami warning issued for six countries in northwestern Pacific.

Tab Gilles : 3/28/2005 11:55:46 AM

EUR/USD Dollar continues to climb and is nearing downtrend again...trendline. Is this a short term bounce within a longer term decline as Buffet/Gates forecast? I believe that the EUR/USD will trade with in 1.25 and 1.35, perhaps spiking up to 1.40. $USD 60 minute Link $USD weekly Link EUR/USD daily Link GLD Link $GOX Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:55:14 AM

Without a strong bounce, it looks as if the OEX is going to close this 30-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 561.68, a Keltner line that has topped out 30-minute moves since 3/15.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 11:53:41 AM

Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $4.09 -3.08% Link ... scheduled to present at the Stephens Nanotechnology Investor Conference to be held April 5-6 at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Pasadena, CA. CEO Dr. Alan Gotcher scheduled to speak April 6 at 10:30 AM EST.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:52:31 AM

Advdec line still drops.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 11:46:38 AM

QQQQ has just ticked below the 7200 tick SMA support for the first time today, stalling the 30 min cycle upphase: Link . It will take a move below 36.40 to turn the channel back down from here.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:45:19 AM

No bounce yet. The downside target of that confirmed H&S on the OEX's three-minute chart is about 559.71.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:42:18 AM

Depending on where you place the neckline, a H&S has either just been confirmed on the OEX (which I believe it has) or is about to be confirmed. The three-minute chart shows, however, that the OEX is approaching potential support. Confirmed or not, it may be time for a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 11:38:56 AM

USA Truck (USAK) $23.98 +7.96% Link ... strong bounce from its rising 21-day SMA ($22.08). Stock exceeded its prior bullish vertical count of $23.50 in March. Recent trade at $22 has stock on a "sell signal." Bulls would like to see trade at $27 to get stock back on a "buy signal" with a new bullish vertical count constructing to .... $37. PnF chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:37:14 AM

The OEX is still trading sideways out of that descending regression channel. I don't trust sideways breakdowns and I don't trust sideways upside breakouts, either. We need to see some further sign of strength to believe in the bounce, particularly with the advdec line doing what it's doing.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 11:36:25 AM

Good news for local telephone service providers: the FCC has ruled that states can't force local providers to offer "naked" DSL service to customers. That is, telcos can't be required to offer high speed internet service to customers who use other providers of local phone service.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 11:33:19 AM

Yellow Roadway (YELL) $62.08 +2.78% Link ... gaps above its trending higher 21-day SMA ($60.81) after testing trending higher 50-day SMA ($57.25) last week. Stock has exceeded its bullish vertical count of $56.00.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:32:04 AM

Still no OEX 15-minute close above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 561.01 and 561.88, although the OEX continues to challenge those averages.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:31:20 AM

Still no 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 561.71.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:29:05 AM

SOX still positive, still off the HOD.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:28:10 AM

Nasdaq still between the 200-sma's support and the 200-ema's resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 11:27:22 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link testing rising 7200 tick SMA support here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 11:24:44 AM

Brookstone (BKST) $16.45 +15.92% Link ... jumps after the gadget retailer siad latest quarterly profits rose 3% after a surge in direct-marketing sales. Sharper Image (SHRP) $16.41 +2.88% Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:19:10 AM

Now that we have some 15-minute candles behind us today, here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows: The OEX is balancing on Keltner support from 560.76-560.93, finding support there on 15-minute closes. Resistance is trying to firm somewhere near 562.60, but is perhaps configured just now so that a strong push--really strong--could get through that resistance. At the same time, support below that 560.76-560.93 level is thinning and looking weaker, so that if the OEX falls through that support, it could perhaps fall to 558.30 or perhaps low enough to test Wednesday's low. MACD flattens, not giving much help in determining whether the resistance test or support test will come first.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 11:18:25 AM

Session low for Nymex crude at 53.825, -1.87%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 11:14:57 AM

Movie Gallery (MOVI) $30.05 +24.89% ... surges after Blockbuster (BBI) $8.88 -6.13% dropped its bid for Hollywood Entertainment (HLYW) $13.15 -6.93%. BBI's move now frees MOVI to purchase HLYW.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 11:13:55 AM

SNE has announced that it has been ordered to stop selling PlayStation units in the US and to pay $90 million in damages for patent infringement to Immersion Corp. The infringement arises from SNE's use of technology to make game controllers vibrate in response to events in its video games. The order is stayed by the appeal that SNE says it will launch, and so the company will continue selling PlayStations in the meantime.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:11:44 AM

The advdec line has been declining since the second ten minutes of the trading day today. That's not good. Bulls need to pull it together or courage will flee and indices will roll over.

Tab Gilles : 3/28/2005 11:09:24 AM

Is Sony (SNE) a short? Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 11:09:08 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Thursday's Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/28/2005 11:08:03 AM

$SOX & $NDX charts Will the semi's lead the rally for the $NDX? Link Link Link Link Link

Tab Gilles : 3/28/2005 11:05:03 AM

Is inflation picking up? With the Fed looking to raise rates more aggresively if it does...lets take a look at the XLB:XLF chart. Now over 1.0 Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 11:05:33 AM

QQQQ continues to press higher, but the advance is hesitant, with 30 min channel resistance only now reaching Thursday's afternoon high. Daily cycle bulls want to see this level at least tagged and preferably broken to confirm the young upturn on the 10-day stochastic. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 11:02:33 AM

No OEX 30-minute close above the Keltner level needed to indicate a change in trend. The OEX also does battle with the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 562.04 and 562.94, respectively.

Tab Gilles : 3/28/2005 11:01:56 AM

Interesting look at a annotated 5 year chart of GE and the Five and 10 year Note-($FVX & $TNX) and my observations. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 11:01:51 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/28/2005 11:00:02 AM

Key word of the day is TREND As Linda brought up on this weekend's Market Wrap, key indexes are testing long term trendlines. Here are several charts. $SPX Link $OEX Link $MID Link $RUT Link $NYA Link $GOX Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:59:13 AM

Corning (GLW) $11.01 +1.38% ....

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:58:17 AM

Extreme Networks (EXTR) $5.74 -1.37% ... set to test curling higher 200-day SMA ($5.69). Company "blew away" quarterly earnings back on 01/19/05 after stock closed at $5.88.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 10:57:09 AM

Bonds are firming slightly, TNX easing off its its highs to a 3.7 bp gain at 4.628%. Link This is a very tricky spot for yields, with the TNX showing a bearish stochastic divergence against ongoing steep gains for the TNX. A close below 4.52% would likely kick off the overdue daily cycle downphase, but for now, the trend continues to point up.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:56:23 AM

Solectron (SLR) $3.80 -11.03% ... gaps lower to new 52-weeker after contract manufacturer issues disappointing outlook.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 10:54:14 AM

The OEX needs to show a 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 561.75 before it even begins to change the trend on a Keltner basis. It will be touch and go with the 30-minute period to end in a few minutes. The OEX is at 561.61 as I type, off the high of this 30-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:53:12 AM

Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) $6.23 -24.17% ... lower after company said its lung cancer drug Targretin failed to meet goals for improving overall and two-year survival in two of its main studies. First Albany, which earlier this year had boosted its rating and price target on the stock on hopes for the new drug now lowering its rating to "neutral" from "buy" due to the trial's results.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 10:48:40 AM

The OEX is now attempting a breakout above the descending regression channel in which it's spent much of this month, but it's tentative and sideways as yet. The SOX has again fallen back off its high of the day, back below the daily 100-ema. The Nasdaq is still between its 200-sma and 200-ema. The BIX is testing 350, but not yet maintaining values above that S/R levels. Still mixed evidence.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:48:05 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.53 +0.71%, LEXR $5.70 -9.65%, CSCO $18.10 +1.23%, SPY $117.77 +0.53%, MSFT $24.37 +0.37%, LGND $6.19 -24.78%, AIG $56.93 +2.37%, SIRI $5.30 -0.37%, INTC $23.59 +1.76%

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:45:02 AM

I'm hoping that 10523, weekly pivot, is the spot that holds us back until further data comes out.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:43:47 AM

YM Trade Exit Point Alert -
Short 10523, lower stop to 10529.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:40:22 AM

QM bidding and we should get at least a 20 point drop.?

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:39:16 AM

YM Trade Entry Point Alert -
Short now 10523, stop 10533.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:38:10 AM

QM dropping, bears are in trouble.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 10:37:49 AM

QQQQ bounced from 7200 tick SMA, never breaking below, and is now challenging its prior session high. A break above 36.55 targets the current 30 min channel top at 36.62. The 30 and 60 min cycles, which have aborted their downphases several hours early, will remain bullish with price above 36.44. Crude oil is breaking below 54 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:37:14 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.65 +0.3% ... edges above prior session high for first time in 13 sessions. WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $8.11, $8.35, Piv= $8.75, $8.99, $9.39.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:33:40 AM

Looks like my earlier short entry would have worked. 10520, 10523 and 10526 was just too much for now for bulls.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 10:32:31 AM

The OEX 60-minute close was below the 60-minute 21-ema. See my 10:06 post for a chart. On a 30-minute Keltner chart basis, there has yet been no 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently 561.74, so there's no breakout as yet on that score, either, although that breakout level is being tested, too.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:31:55 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.97 +0.50% ... edges above WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 10:29:14 AM

The TRAN climbs today, too, but within a potential bull flag without a breakout yet. Last week,, the TRAN balanced on the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the January low, with that retracement near 3727.50. Wednesday, the TRAN pierced that level in intraday trading, but then bounced. The 30-dma also looks like potential support with that MA at 3727.08. The 50% retracement is near 3675.50. It looks as if nothing all that bearish has happened on the TRAN, but there are still signs that the TRAN may be topping out: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:26:14 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 10:25:09 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , holding above the 7200 tick SMA line but without any conviction.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:24:56 AM

All riding on QM now, can't get belwo 54.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:22:12 AM

COMP loses 200o.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:30:17 AM

Bearish swing trade place stop alert ... Will lower a stop on the bearish short in the underlying shares of Merck (MRK) $31.87 (unch) .... Lower stop to $32.30 from $32.60. If stop is triggered, will also buy back the three (3) MRK April $30 Puts (MRK-PF) at the offer. WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $31.31, $31.59, Piv = $31.97, $32.25, $32.63.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 10:19:51 AM

The OEX is in danger of closing this first 60-minute period below the 60-minute 21-ema again, with that average's importance shown on the chart linked to my 10:06 post.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:19:29 AM

Bearish swing trade place stop alert ... for Corning and the eight (8) GLW Aug. $10 Puts (GLW-TB) ... will place a stop on these options at $0.25 per contract.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 10:21:51 AM

Nymex crude is lower by .55 or 1% at 55.30 here. Gold has ticked positive, up .30 at 425.10, with HUI and XAU down .44% at 198.47 and -.18% at 92.8 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:15:14 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $56.29 +1.20% ... now a percentage gainer among the Dow 30. DIA $104.80 +0.34% ... just under WEEKLY Pivot with breadth holding positive at 24 to 6. GM $28.96 -1.16%. SBC $23.72 +1.80%, INTC $23.49 +1.38%, HD $38.46 +1.13%.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:13:20 AM

If QM reverses, we drop and close that gap

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:11:44 AM

There is a scalp short belwo 10511.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:11:38 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 10:06:40 AM

The OEX tests its 60-minute 21-ema, an average that has been important resistance (on 60-minute closes) through much of March, and also tests the top of the descending regression channel in which it's traded most of this month. Soon after breaking out, if it does, it will hit 563.50-564-ish historical resistance, but this would also be one place to watch for a rollover: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:04:44 AM

YM Trade Exit Point Alert -
Cancel short entry. QM dropping

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:04:37 AM

VIX.X 13.61 +1.41% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.70, 13.06, Piv= 13.32, 13.68, 13.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 10:03:02 AM

QQQQ is holding the 36.47 support level, though volume is light at 11.3M shares so far. 30 min channel support is up to 36.27, resistance up to 36.60.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 10:01:48 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 10:00:00 AM

YM Trade Entry Point Alert -
Short YM at 10521, stop 10529.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:59:13 AM

My original supposition for thinking that it might be time for an OEX bounce of perhaps several days' duration was countered by some Keltner evidence, but here's what my impressions had been as last week closed. First, we'd seen a big drop and it just appeared time for a bounce. Then, the OEX had hit the 200-ema and that appeared to be a place from which a bounce might be expected, especially since the OEX hit that average just slightly ahead of the January lows. Lastly, the OEX may be forming a H&S on the daily chart (with the nice-to-have bearish price/MACD divergence as the head was formed). It's still lacking a right shoulder, though, and Thursday's close at these potential support levels would be an appropriate neckline level. So, it just seemed logical to me to expect a bounce attempt into at least a right shoulder, but Keltner evidence wasn't so positive that was going to happen. Now, I'm waiting and watching, not inclined to suggest participating in a countertrend bullish play while Keltner evidence of a bounce is so dubious.

As are others, I'm watching the Nasdaq's behavior with relationship to its 200-sma and -ema's, at 1992.91 and 2013.46, with the Nasdaq having spent much of the last 7 trading days trapped between the two averages.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 9:58:29 AM

Digital Impact (DIGI) $3.47 +51% ... agreed to be bought by Acxiom for $140 million. Acxiom will pay $3.50 per share.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 9:57:46 AM

Ym is above it and at 62% 10511

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 9:56:03 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just announced a huge 9B overnight repo against no expiries, for a net gain in that amount. This could be in preparation for the treasury auctions later today, but in any case, should contribute to the bullish case for equities today. Note that bonds are still negative, TNX +4.1 bps at 4.632% currently.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:50:36 AM

Last week and the week before, the OEX's daily 100/130-ema's proved important to watch. Those averages are now at 565.42 and 562.81, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:49:20 AM

The OEX needs a 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 561.79 to indicate a change in trend, from a Keltner outlook, anyway.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 9:47:23 AM

30 and 60 min channel resistance for QQQQ line up at 36.57 here, with the 30 min cycle turning up. That cycle should remain bullish above 36.41. The key test for daily cycle bulls, however, will come at Thursday's high of 36.64.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 9:47:22 AM

SunGard Data Systems (SDS) $34.68 +9.88% ... Consortium, led by technology-focused investment firm Silver Lake Parterns buying the company for $11.3 billion. Under terms of the agreement, SunGard stockholders will receive $36.00 in cash for each share they hold.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:44:56 AM

Tepid gains on the RUT as it tests the 618-ish resistance level.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 9:42:22 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.79 +0.33% ... updated bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link . Breadth positive early with 23 advancers versus 7 decliners. AIG $55.01 -1.07% is the lone percentage loser on reports that up to 12 executives have been subpoenaed in SEC probe.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:40:57 AM

The BIX gains today, but it's still inside the consolidation zone at the bottom of its drop. No breakout yet.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:38:57 AM

Crude down to $54.31.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:36:39 AM

Looking at the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, I note first resistance at 559.73, with next resistance at 560.60-561.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 9:34:32 AM

Headline:

9:32am ABC AMERISOURCEBERGEN DOWN 10% AT $55

ABC issued a profit warning this morning, announcing that fiscal Q2 earnings will miss expectations of $1.10 EPS and estimating earnings of $0.75-.85 per share. For the full year, the company forecasts earnings of $3.10-$3.50 per share, down from its previously projected $4.00-4.10 range.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:33:24 AM

So far, the SOX does follow through on semi-related gains in Asia, although the SOX has a history lately of climbing early in the session and then failing to maintain those gains.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:32:31 AM

OEX attempting to steady on thirty-minute Keltner support and on the 200-ema.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 9:26:37 AM

If we dip, I plan on trying thel ong side.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 9:23:01 AM

Note a massive resistance for YM between 10520 and 10523. Daily R1 and weekly pivot. That would be a great short target, especially if we didn't close the gap.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 9:47:33 AM

Thursday afternoon's 30 min cycle downphase looks to be aborting early under the influence of the upturning oversold daily cycle. If bulls can clear 36.47 QQQQ from here, the 30 min channel should turn up. The channel bottom is at 36.23, with first support at 36.30 if the 36.37 support level fails.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 9:20:32 AM

R is 10495,10497 and 1501.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 9:19:58 AM

Session low for 10-year treasuries, with TNX up 3.9 bps to 4.632%. The treasury will be auctioning 3-month and 6-month bills today, the results of which will be reported shortly after 1PM.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2005 9:18:57 AM

We have a nice gap to close for YM, down to 10471.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2005 9:16:22 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.58 and set for program selling at $+2.58.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 9:02:04 AM

Here's my update on the OEX, based on chart characteristics. I have to tell you that last night when I turned to study the charts, I was surprised at the chart configurations. I had expected to reach a sound "it's time to bounce and maybe bounce for a few days to a week" conclusion, but that's not what I found. However, I have to temper what you're going to read in these paragraphs with the information that the futures are modestly higher (although I haven't compared them to fair value to see if they're above fair values) and semi-related stocks performed well in Asia. If we get follow-through on the SOX today, that should help market sentiment. So, with all that said, here's what I saw when studying OEX charts last night:

Let's take a top-down look at the OEX based on Keltner evidence. The OEX last week produced a bearish red candle that descended to possible weekly support at 554.07-556.23. This support may be strong enough to produce a bounce attempt, but the week ended with a tentative weekly histogram print below the zero line and with no candlestick or other sign yet that the steadying had begun. Next weekly support can be found at 542.77, a level it seems difficult to imagine the OEX touching without at least a bounce attempt first. However, the OEX needs to produce weekly closes above a Keltner line currently at 570.28 before it erases that as a potential downside target. For now, bearish price/MACD divergences, the negative MACD histogram level, and other signs battle the tentative support seen here, with the outcome as yet unknown.

The daily Keltner chart also shows the OEX struggling to maintain potential support, but here the support may look even weaker. Resistance lines snake down toward the 564 level, but as of late last week, even the nearest 559-ish resistance was proving tough, and the MACD was fully bearish. Looks as if a bounce--likely to be repelled at 564-565.50 or maybe 570.50-572--or just a straight-down fall toward 529.00 is possible on that chart.

The thirty- and sixty-minute Keltner charts also show the OEX approaching potential support, but at least in the case of the 60-minute chart, those supporting lines still turn lower, perhaps allowing the OEX to slide down along them. The OEX needs a 30-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 561.97 to change the downward trend on a Keltner basis.

Bulls obviously want to see a bounce begin today, especially those who positioned themselves for such a bounce last week. I don't yet see any bullish divergences on the 30-minute chart to show that it's likely for the OEX to bounce, but futures are indicating at least a steadying attempt is underway. If a bounce occurs either from Thursday's close or from a dip toward Wednesday's low, look for a potential failure near 564-565 or 570.50-572. Based on the chart evidence, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rolling over and new leg down today, either, without much of a bounce. Charts say that's possible, although instinct tells me that it's time for a bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 8:59:13 AM

The US Dollar Index cleared 84, pulled back lightly, and is moving sharply higher since 8AM: Link . April gold is down to 423.70, -1.10 on solid volume of 677 contracts. Euros are down .62% to 1.2899, CAD futures -.55% to .8178.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/28/2005 7:22:57 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1178.75, NQ 1484.5, YM 10490 and QQQQ +.15 to 36.42. Gold and silver are lower, ten year bonds down .125 to 108 21/64, and crude oil is down .45 to 54.40.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 3/28/2005 6:49:23 AM

Good morning. A firming dollar helped the Nikkei to a modest gain in overnight trading, with exporters leading the gain. Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more losing than gaining. Among those gaining was South Korea's Kospi, boosted by its semi-related stocks. Most European markets remain closed this morning. Our futures climbed modestly just after opening last night and then flat-lined at that level most of the night. As of 6:40 EST, gold was down $0.30, and crude, down $0.41 to $54.43. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After rising 15 points in Friday's trading, the Nikkei opened in the red Monday, but soon climbed into positive territory again. For the rest of the day, it steadied at the level reached by the end of the morning session, closing higher by 31.20 points or 0.27%, at 11,792.30. A firming U.S. dollar helped, with exporters and especially chip-related issues leading the climb out of negative territory. However, Friday was the last day stocks had to be owned in order to garner dividends, and some sold stock Monday, capping gains, with one article saying that the Nikkei could be impacted by as much as 60 points due to ex-dividend reactions. Other economic news included February's output from the top five auto manufacturers, with that output rising 5.5% year over year. Out of the top five, however, production by Mazda and Mitsubishi fell. In stock-specific news, Sony has this morning announced plans to appeal a U.S. District Court ruling Thursday to suspend sales of its PSP or PlayStation Portable and fork over $90 million in damages to Immersion Corp. in a patent case.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more bourses losing ground than gaining ground. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.28%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 1.28% with its semi-related stocks rising. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.33%. Hong Kong's market was closed. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.46%.

Almost all European markets remained closed for a holiday.

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