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Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 1:25:05 AM

June Crude (cl05m) $55.15 +0.36% ... up 20 cents after OPEC suspended talks on production increase. OPEC President Sheik Ahmed Fahd al Ahmed Al Sabah, who is also the minister of Kuwait, said the cartel would be watching prices, but since prices haven't risen the cartel needs to be patient. However, Ahmed Al Sabah said that while a supply crunch does not seem likely, he believes there will be an increase in production at the end of Q2 because the market will need it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:47:19 AM

Short Interest ... here's the link to the NASDAQ site. Enter the symbol of the stock/security you're interested in next to the "ADD" button, then click it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:28:33 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.62 and set for program selling at $+1.96.

OI Technical Staff : 3/29/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 5:17:04 PM

Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 4:56:25 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 4:49:02 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 4:31:19 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link Today's Activity .... Swing trade bullish call and bought two (2) of the Semiconductor HOLDRs SMH Nov. $32.50 Calls (SMH-KZ) at the offer of $3.20. Swing trade covered call and sold two (2) of the Semiconductor HOLDRs SMH Apr. $32.50 Calls (SMH-DZ) at the bid of $0.55. (now do NOTHING until April Expiration) Swing trade bearish puts and bought two (2) Apple Computer AAPL July $42.50 Puts (QAA-SV) at the offer of $4.20.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 4:15:26 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $104.08, SPY $116.58

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 4:14:10 PM

S&P Futures (sp05m) 1,168.00 -0.79% (30-minute delayed) ... downside alert here at 61.8% retracement (08/06/04 settle to 03/07/05 settlement). Chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 4:00:09 PM

The OEX will end the day at or near its 200-sma, as I thought it might. We might expect a bounce attempt tomorrow morning, but I'll be looking at overnight developments before I post my first OEX update tomorrow morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 3:59:39 PM

Look for a break north of 36.05 QQQQ to stall the downphase and regain the previous triple-bottom support (now resistance). Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:58:33 PM

VIX.X 14.67 +6.69%

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:56:34 PM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... selling two (2) of the Semiconductor HOLDRs April $32.50 Calls (SMH-DZ) at the bid of $0.55. SMH now $32.11 -1.38% and breaking below upward trend.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 3:52:17 PM

QQQQ testing lower 30 and 60 min channel support right here at the 35.94 low.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 3:52:56 PM

The OEX is heading down toward next 15-minute Keltner support at 555.12, so bears need to keep those profit-protecting plans in place, but that supporting line slopes down strongly, and I always thought a break through the 200-ema might mean a test of the 200-sma, with that average at 553.61. The OEX might not have time to hit that average today, though, and traders then need to make the decision as to whether they'll take partial or full profits if the OEX ends the day just above the 200-sma. At this point, I don't see this as an opportunity to get long, however. Futures traders are feeling somewhat different, so read their posts as well and make up your own mind. Trading futures and options offer differences, however.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:50:58 PM

NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 7073.51 -0.81% alert ... see chart in MM from 03/24/09 at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 3:45:52 PM

QQQQ has printed its third consecutive gravestone doji, looking to finish again at the lows but this time, on higher than average volume with 102.5M shares already traded. The daily cycle oscillators remain on bullish kisses despite the intraday downside whipsaw, with yesterday's low broken. The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators continue to point south, and should of a break above 36.20, they will maintain their bearish bias. While it's tempting to bottom fish for the daily cycle low, falling knifes are dangerous. So far, all of the bounce attempts since last week have failed below the 36.60-.64 resistance zone, and daily cycle bulls will want to see that broken before turning their backs on the downphase. New lows printing as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 3:35:34 PM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart suggests: As long as the OEX continues with 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 557.53, it's vulnerable down to 555.24. A close above that Keltner line stabilizes the smallest channel but doesn't turn it higher yet. A close above 558.71 would be needed to do that. Bears should continue to follow the OEX lower with their stops, having a profit-protecting plan in place for that test of 555.24 if it should occur.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:33:49 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 195.80 -0.80% ... session low and starting to slip below longer-term upward trend (11/26/01 to 3/13/03 pullback), where this trend was tested and held on 02/08/05 and my then targeted low of 193.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 3:30:55 PM

Gold continues to hold its fractional gain, with HUI and XAU both negative, -.78% at 195.85 and -.64% at 92 respectively. QQQQ is back to the lows, retesting a triple bottom with the short cycle upphase whipsawing back south. Bulls need to break the former bounce high at 36.20 before trusting any suggestion of strength here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:30:28 PM

VIX.X 14.38 +4.58% ... WEEKLY R1 on that sell program.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 3:30:24 PM

Bounce attempted, but as one of the Futures writers just noted, it's not convincing yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:29:36 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,166.26, DIA $104.09, QQQQ $36.07.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:29:02 PM

RedEnvelope (REDE) $8.43 -27.32% ... never heard of this one before, but #2 on the percentage loser list.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:28:04 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.10 -0.66%, SPY $116.65 -0.57%, MSFT $24.05 -0.61%, INTC $23.14 -0.68%, CSCO $17.75 -0.78%, HPQ $21.57 +8.99%, SIRI $5.35 +1.32%, MCIP $23.80 +3.74%, JDSU $1.61 -1.22%, ORCL $12.28 -1.20%, AIG $58.30 +2.24%, LU $2.71 +0.37%

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 3:21:45 PM

OEX testing the double-bottom level.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:20:57 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $21.56 +8.99% ... session highs and does get trade at its "Fiorina close" of $21.53. (see 01:51:42 post/chart)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 3:17:41 PM

QQQQ 100-tick update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:15:54 PM

I've exited the one (1) AIG Jan. $60 Call (WAPAL) I bought on 03/22/05. High premiums and will use past trade in HPQ to be cautious at this point.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 3:15:43 PM

The OEX broke below the latest bear flag's support, but now bears need confirmation by a new LOD.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:11:05 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 3:10:32 PM

The cash bond market has closed, with TNX finishing higher by 3.3 bps at 4.591%. ZN futures chart at this Link , daily TNX chart at this Link .

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 3:08:29 PM

The OEX moved higher than a 50% retracement of the latest drop, to a 61.8% retracement, but now turns down. It's tentatively holding to this newest, small bear flag's support and to the 200-ema at 557.27.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 3:02:24 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 3:00:00 PM

A short cycle upphase is now in progress within the stalled 30 min QQQQ channel. A break above 36.20 should kick off a 30 min channel upphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:57:09 PM

The OEX's five-minute chart is now showing a bounce that looks a bit more corrective, forming up into a small bear flag. It's now at the 557.70 level that marks the 50% retracement of the last dip from the 1:35 high, so bears would like to see it break down soon.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:53:03 PM

The OEX is so far resisting plunging below its 200-ema and -sma. That's been my worry all day, my reason for not being more aggressive with suggesting new bearish trades for all but the risk-takers who make their own decisions anyway.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 2:52:28 PM

QQQQ is testing declining 7200 tick SMA resistance here, with the 30 min channel bottom trying to stabilize. A break above 36.15 will stall the 30 min channel downphase, next resistance 36.23-.25. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 2:49:18 PM

Semiconductor Mfg. Intl. (SMI) $9.50 -3.16% Link ... session low and setting up for test of major support after the struggling Chinese chip maker said late this afternoon that it has lost patience with the U.S. government and declared that the company would have to look elsewhere to borrow money to buy American chip making equipment. SMI wanted the U.S. Export-Import Bank, a government agency that promotes U.S. exports, to act as guarantor for a $769 million loan. Micron Technology (MU) $10.05 -1.17% Link has been protesting aid to China's chip industry.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:47:19 PM

Nasdaq drops quickly below its 200-sma. Hint of what could happen on the OEX, too? So far, it's showing few signs of following, still clinging to its 200-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 2:46:34 PM

May crude went out +.15 at 55.20, off a high of 54.475.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:45:02 PM

Jeff, I've traded 40 or 50 contracts in one issue at a time and maybe 60 a time or two, but I believe +12,000 is above my trading accounts' capability. Or my heart's.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:43:03 PM

The advdec line continues to drop.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 2:41:31 PM

There was some "unusual" action in those AAPL July $42.50 puts yesterday, which looked to be combined with some call selling. I thought maybe you (Linda) were rounding off a trade this afternoon.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 2:38:33 PM

QQQQ's 7200 tick SMA resistnace is down to 36.18 here- if the next plunge doesn't come in the next few minutes, the 30 min cycle downphase will stall if prices makes it above the falling SMA line.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:38:07 PM

What I've feared today is seeing the OEX trapped for a day or two between the 200-ema and 200-sma, and I'm still not sure that's not going to happen.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:36:29 PM

Laughing, Jeff. No, I haven't looked at Apple today. (See Jeff's 2:20 posts.)

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:31:55 PM

The OEX bounces from above 556. The three-minute Keltner channel suggests that 557.60 might be tough resistance, but this bounce hasn't looked corrective so far, so there's some possibility it could bulldoze through that resistance. For now, I'd guess not.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 2:28:44 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 3.7 bp at 4.587% and sitting right on its WEEKLY Pivot. Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.73 +1.27% ... still under its WEEKLY Pivot of $8.75. Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.45 -0.28% .... "coiling" at session lows still.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 2:26:15 PM

The 200% retracement off the bottom of yesterday's range is down at 36.93 QQQQ, with the 30 min channel support now below 36 as well. The bullish cross on the daily cycle noted earlier this morning has "undrawn" itself on the intraday whipsaw- in that timeframe, a break below 36.00 has next support at 35.80, followed by 35.40.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:21:47 PM

Today, the OEX performed a picture-perfect test of the top of the bear flag and a rollover from there. While I was noting the rollover at the time, the advdec line's strength kept me from suggesting that any but aggressive and risk-taking traders who know what they want to do anyway enter bearish trades. The real clue was Jane's--that while the advdec line was climbing, it hadn't reached the previous day's high, but I don't know that I would have felt comfortable with a rollover play anyway for any but aggressive traders with the 200-ema and -sma lurking right below. Turns out it really was a picture-perfect entry. Options decay and there was the chance that the OEX could just remain trapped in that consolidation zone another day or two. Now bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place here and for 556 and 554, if they're touched.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 2:20:53 PM

Linda .... was that you taking down 12,360 of those Apple July $42.50 puts at 01:30?

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 2:17:26 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:17:24 PM

Bounce fails and the OEX heads right back to test Wednesday's low and the 200-ema. The OEX is just below that average now, and looks vulnerable to 555.72 on the 15-minute Keltner chart--perhaps rather quickly, and to the 200-sma at 553.62 on the daily chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 2:15:27 PM

QQQQ update at this Link finding support at the premarket lows. This action so far looks like a bear flag/"b" distribution at the lows, and it will take a break above the descending 7200 tick SMA now at 36.25 to confirm otherwise.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 2:11:23 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:09:56 PM

The OEX is bouncing from the double-bottom level, but I don't know that I'd call the bounce a strong one. It's reflexive right now.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 2:06:33 PM

Wednesday's OEX low was 557.09, with the OEX dropping below that level as I type. Those in bearish positions now have confirmation of the rollover at the top of the bear flag and the bear flag breakdown, but those bears don't want to see the OEX bounce quickly from the double-bottom level. The OEX may now be vulnerable down to its 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 2:04:53 PM

Breaking it now on the print below 37.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 2:03:47 PM

Double bottom for QQQQ here at the premarket low: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 2:02:32 PM

Big sell spike here on QQQQ, approx. 1.3M shares within 100 ticks, testing premarket levels here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 2:02:22 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:59:00 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes. A break below Wednesday's low on the OEX might suggest a test of the 200-sma at 553.63.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 1:57:38 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.26 -0.22%, MSFT $24.16 -0.16%, SPY $117.11 -0.17%, INTC $23.25 -0.25%, CSCO $17.81 -0.44%, MCIP $23.79 +3.66%, SIRI $5.34 +1.13%, AIG $58.56 +2.70%, JDSU $1.61 -1.22%, HPQ $21.20 +7.12%, SUNW $4.07 +0.99%

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:55:23 PM

For reference, the OEX's 200-ema is at 557.22, and the 200-sma is at 553.63.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:53:00 PM

The BIX is pulling back from its fourth day of testing 350 and being unable to maintain that level. It remains within its recent consolidation pattern, however. Those hoping for further declines on the OEX would want to see a BIX breakdown accompany or lead an OEX breakdown.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 1:51:42 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $21.46 +8.43% ... chart with recent CEO news and benchmarks at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:48:15 PM

The OEX is still trying to steady at the bear flag's support, above the 200-ema, but resistance is now firming slightly, at 559.50, again at 560.45 and then higher.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:39:31 PM

The OEX is still trying to steady at the bottom of its flag and at Keltner 15-minute support. The quick drop separated Keltner resistance lines, so if the OEX should pop higher rather quickly, it might be able to make it through some before they converged into firm resistance. As I type, resistance seems strongest between 559.74-561.75, a rather broad range for Keltner lines.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 1:35:07 PM

QQQQ is showing a bullish divergence in the short cycle Macd and TRIX oscillators, but below 36.35, I'm skeptical of any bullish indicators. The 30 min channel downphase has been joined by the 60 min as well, and any short cycle bounce will be corrective. Back above 36.35, the 30 min downphase will stall, and the short cycle bulls will be confirmed- at current levels, it just looks like noise. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:32:54 PM

The TRAN, another leading index I watch for OEX, SPX, and Dow behavior, also drops heavily, falling straight to possible 15-minute Keltner support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 1:32:28 PM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.44 -0.34%. WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $17.26, $17.55, Piv= $17.92, $18.20, $18.56.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:31:34 PM

If you're not watching both sides of the Monitor, Keene has just noted that Russell 2000 futures have dropped below last Wednesday's low. So has the cash index.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 1:29:27 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.74 +1.39% ... best levels of the session, perhaps on strong Treasury auction. Key level here with WEEKLY Pivot at $8.75 and that sliver "zone of resistance" at $8.73-$8.74 from my retracement work.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 1:27:03 PM

The results of the 4-week bill auction are in, with 17B of debt auctioned at a high rate of 2.65% and generating a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.41, the highest since the Feb. 1st auction. Ten year treasuries are up, TNX down 3.1 bps at 4.593%.

QQQQ finally let go of the 37.32-.35 confluence and has broken down to the bottom of the 30 min channel at 36.20. The short cycle has been trending in oversold for the past half hour.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:20:49 PM

The OEX is attempting a bounce from the flag's support, but it's not yet determined whether it can maintain a bounce. Those who might have entered earlier based on the test of the upper boundary of the flag should have profit-protecting plans in place here, but I still don't feel good about a bullish entry here.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:16:50 PM

I don't think I'd be tempted to buy potential support here as the OEX tests the flag's support and approaches the 200-ema, too. Not with the advdec line doing what it's doing.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 1:16:22 PM

Swing trade bearish put alert taking two (2) of the Apple Computer July $42.50 Puts (QAA-SV) for my MM Profiles here at $4.20 offer. AAPL $42.15 -0.89% here.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:14:08 PM

The OEX is dropping toward the flag's support, near 558.40. It's doing that as we approach the stop-running time of day, so if there's a break of that support, bears will not want to see a quick reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 1:11:57 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 3/29/2005 1:10:07 PM

Wow, Jane, now you're really challenging the ol' noggin. Too many days sitting in front of charts has fried a bunch of brain cells (or was it all the drinking in my younger Navy days?). I don't remember any of the actors in the show, but I do remember the song.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2005 1:09:03 PM

Just a bunch of oldes but goodes here in the monitor.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:08:16 PM

Yes, Keene, I thought it was from "Rawhide." Now you're dating yourself, too!

Jane Fox : 3/29/2005 1:07:59 PM

Keene indeed it was Rawhide. Wasn't it with Clint Eastwood?

Keene Little : 3/29/2005 1:04:32 PM

Linda, wasn't "rolling, rolling, rolling" from 'Rawhide'?

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 1:02:41 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 1:02:11 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 1:01:12 PM

I just dated myself, didn't I, in that 12:59 post? For those younger than my ancient years, the "rolling, rolling, rolling" reference was to music that introduced a Western television program in the late 50's or early 60's, I believe.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 12:59:24 PM

Rolling, rolling, rolling. Or, rather, coiling, coiling, coiling. As I suspected when I saw the OEX setting up into an equilibrium position on the 15-minute Keltner charts, the OEX is coiling between support and resistance, inside the possible bear flag.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:58:11 PM

S&P 100 (OEX) ... quick look at bottom 33 performers for first quarter of 2005 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:54:48 PM

S&P 100 (OEX) quick look at top 33 performers for first quarter of 2005 as well as 52-week (YrNet%) performance (not verified). P/L % is derived from 12/31/05 Close. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 12:49:51 PM

QQQQ failed on the bounce below 36.40 and has pulled back to retest the previous low at 36.32. The short cycle is certainly taking its time turning.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 12:46:31 PM

Ten year bond futures continue to hang within the morning's range between 108 13/32 and 108 37/64, with TNX trading both sides of 4.6%. The 4-week bill auction results come out within the next 20 minutes, and we should hopefully get some movement after that.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 12:40:39 PM

The SOX is still below its 200-sma, slightly, but really just hovering near it. Daily oscillators such as MACD, RSI and even CCI are beginning to look a little more bearish, but not conclusively so. Bulls will not be cheered by all those spiky candles, but the SOX hasn't yet broken below its version of a likely bear flag, either.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:50:15 PM

It could be a VERY good month for the IRA (last couple days very kind with AIG and HPQ) .... if Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.71 +1.04% would get in gear.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:39:21 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $20.63 +4.16% ... session high WEEKLY R2. "sold to you at $20.62" as Mr. Cramer would say.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:35:42 PM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) 560.15 +0.08% ... either side of WEEKLY Pivot again today. Percentage gainers in this market cap weighted index are HCA $52.38 +7.18%, HPQ $20.60 +3.84%, AIG $58.67 +2.89%, DAL $4.07 +2.26%. Percentage losers are ATI $23.20 -3.53%, BNI $53.97 -1.80%, RSH $24.77 -1.55%, NSC $36.93 -1.46%

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 12:33:43 PM

The OEX's daily Keltner chart shows that until the OEX begins producing daily closes above 563.70 and, even better, above 569.80, it remains vulnerable to further losses.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 12:30:03 PM

The short cycle downphase is looking bottomy here for QQQQ, with the 30 min channel rolling over against the 60 min channel upphase. If the short cycle bulls can hold 36.35, then a higher intraday low will suggest another strong upphase to follow. Look for a break above 36.45 to confirm that upphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:25:27 PM

NCR (NCR) $36.33 -4.01% Link ... diving on the Hurd news.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 12:22:18 PM

Turning to a three-minute Keltner chart for a closer-in look at the OEX, I see that resistance looks far stronger than support, with a suggestion that the OEX could drop back toward 558.90. A bounce first, up toward 560.40-561 isn't precluded.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:20:54 PM

Will be looking to sell long some HPQ bought yesterday should HPQ trade WEEKLY R2 of $20.60. (for those that bought the rumor and want to sell the news)

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:19:08 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $20.30 +2.57% ... as rumored yesterday (see MM 03/28/05 02:27:20), CNBC saying it has learned that Mark Hurd named company's new CEO. Stock jumping on the news.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 12:17:47 PM

QQQQ testing 36.35 support here on a sharp break lower.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:14:05 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 12:11:26 PM

The OEX turns down, now about in the middle of its flag-shaed rise.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 12:10:34 PM

QQQQ has lost the 7200 tick SMA support line and is trading both sides of 36.45 confluence. A break from here targets 30 min channel support at 36.37- with confluence support just below at 36.35. Link

Tab Gilles : 3/29/2005 12:07:45 PM

SONY (SNE) Yesterday's 11:09 AM post I asked if Sony was a possible short canidate?

Chart from yesterday. SNE Link

SNE today Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:04:14 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/29/2005 12:03:36 PM

XLB Back on 3/16 I posted this XLB chart. Link

Here's the current XLB chart. Link DD Link DOW Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 11:59:51 AM

Daily USD Index chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 11:56:51 AM

The OEX is inching below the Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, but if it truly is settling into an equilibrium position, it will move easily across converging central channel lines as it bounces from side to side of a narrowing range. The 15-minute chart suggests that the range will probably be narrower than 5 points, currently from above 558.54 to 563.31, but perhaps even narrower than that.

Basically, all that tells us is that the OEX is inside a bear flag, still adhering to the upside and downside parameters of that flag, so it's not new information. Just corroboration.

Tab Gilles : 3/29/2005 11:56:01 AM

The lower Consumer Confidence reading has caused a pull back on the Dollar after its recent run. Not sure though if this is just short covering on gold, or if it will bring more buyers. Guess everyone is still watching rates and Fed moves in coming months. However, the threat of inflation that has recently served to puff up the Dollar seems to have paused for now.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 11:50:35 AM

Crude oil is down .15 here at 53.90, with the CRB up .76 to 308.12 on strength in lean hogs, silver and cocoa futures. Gold is down to a session low at 426, with XAU ticking negative and HUI fractionally positive.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 11:43:22 AM

As the three-minute Keltner chart suggested, the OEX is rising, but traders need more than $0.50-0.75 targets. Unfortunately, the 15-minute chart still shows nearest resistance near 562, up to 563.35, looking about equally firm as nearby support, at 561, down to 560. The OEX may be settling into an equilibrium position on that chart, so that we might find it trading in an increasingly narrow range before a breakout.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 12:26:14 PM

Swing trade bullish call option alert ... Taking two (2) of the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) Link Nov. $32.50 Calls (SMH-KZ) at the offer of $3.20 for my MM Profiles. SMH $32.60 +0.12% here. According to NASDAQ, short interest rose to 34,996,730 on March 15, its highest level since April of last year (37,191,848).

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 11:40:11 AM

The short cycle downphase looks to be roughly half way done, with price so far holding above nearest support at 36.45, with the 7200 tick SMA now overlapping that confluence level. This shallow pullback is good news for the bulls so far, but it would be moreso if the 36.60-.64 zone had been cracked first. So long as the bulls can prevent the bears from regaining the ground that they lost this morning, the next short cycle upphase should do it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 11:34:15 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.49 +0.41%, MSFT $24.18 -0.08%, SPY $117.68 +0.31%, INTC $23.30 (unch), MCIP $23.72 +3.4%, JDSU $1.63 (unch), AIG $59.22 +3.89%, CSCO $17.95 +0.33%, SUNW $4.08 +1.24%, SMH $32.56 (unch)

Tab Gilles : 3/29/2005 11:33:58 AM

Linda, you bring up a valid point on the daily $SOX chart on your 11:04:02 AM post. Just annotated a chart on those observations. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 11:33:15 AM

On a three-minute chart, the OEX's pullback from the HOD looks like a bull flag and the support just under 561 looks stronger than nearest resistance, suggesting a possible push up to test 561.50 or even 561.85, but perhaps not before another retest of the 561 level.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 11:30:39 AM

The RLX hasn't been able to build on yesterday's gains, at least not so far.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 11:29:59 AM

For may days, the TRAN has been printing a series of candles just above the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the January low and has been finding support at its 30-dma over the last four days, too. That's where it is today, too, with a so-far doji perched at those levels of potential support. The TRAN is maintaining this rather shallow retracement of the rally, but it can't seem to get any upward traction, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 11:29:24 AM

April gold is up .60 at 426.60, off a high of 428, with HUI down to a .68% gain at 198.73 and XAU +.36% at 92.92. Crude oil is down .25 at 53.80, with QQQQ bouncing from 36.45.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 11:21:13 AM

Currently, the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows nearest resistance and nearest support about equally weighted, with that support just under 561 and that resistance just above 562, up to 563.40.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 11:22:14 AM

June Crude Oil futures (cl05m) $54.30 -0.87% ... session low and slips juuuuuust under my 61.8% retracement of $54.51, which has found buyers since Wednesday. (see 3/22/05 MM post) Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 11:17:33 AM

The short cycle downphase has kicked off, with QQQQ pulling down on so far lower volume. Rising 7200 tick SMA support is up to 36.43. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 11:17:06 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 11:11:30 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link . Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 11:04:02 AM

Studying the SOX's daily chart, I see the SOX finding support on its 200-sma, but currently with a small-bodied candle at that support--not exactly great strength being displayed. Daily CCI hooks down, an early bearish sign if it holds into the close today. MACD tries to flatten, with the histogram improving. If you can sort through those mixed signals and tell me the one that's the most predictive, then you're doing better than I am. An absolute river of MA's streams above the SOX, and it's been regularly failing in its attempt to push above them, but that's about all we can say for now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 11:02:58 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 11:02:01 AM

Ten year treasuries are bouncing off a higher intraday low at 108 13/32 (basis June ZN future), with TNX currently -2.3 bps at 4.601%.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:58:28 AM

The Keltner and bear-flag resistance is holding, with the OEX turning lower from that resistance, but so far, the internals aren't showing much corroboration. Those risk-takers and aggressive traders among you have already made up your minds what you want to do and when you want to do it, but there's just not enough corroboration for me to suggest that traders enter new bearish positions here, still not so far above the 200-ema's support.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:57:10 AM

QQQQ is holding just off the highs, with a short cycle downphase due to commence. So long as the pullback holds north of the 36.40, the 30 min channel upphase will hold. It would take a break below 36.35 to kick off a new 30 min cycle downphase. Link

Tab Gilles : 3/29/2005 10:48:51 AM

$SPX/$SPXA200 Here's a comparison chart looking at the $SPX and it's stock trading over their respective 200 ma's. Is the market losing strength? (divergence) Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:48:47 AM

The OEX attempts another breakout above the 60-minute 21-ema, but it's already hitting Keltner resistance that extends up to 563.42 on the 15-minute chart. The top of the potential bear flag is near that level, too. Difficult to imagine that there will be a rollover with the advdec line performing so strongly, however, so be careful about entering new bearish positions on a presumed rollover that hasn't come yet. Watch for candlestick or other signs of a rollover, and I sure would like more corroboration from the internals before I believed that a rollover was in progress.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:51:20 AM

Starbucks (SBUX) $52.97 +1.51% ... edges above its trending lower 50-day SMA ($52.71) and trying to get back above its trending higher 21-day SMA ($53.01). I didn't catch the "chatter" on CNBC this morning regarding restaurant stocks having to restate some earnings from leases (most likely synthetic), but it is this fundamental-based analysis that has had me thinking SBUX at risk. However, technicals not reflecting MARKET all that worried at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:47:43 AM

QQQQ and NQ are printing the first ticks of a bullish cross on the daily chart. Provided that QQQQ holds north of 36.35 support, this should be enough to kick off the daily cycle upphase. Next goal for bulls is to break 36.60-.64 resistance.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:45:55 AM

Advdec line still rising.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:45:54 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $15.27 +2.07% ... sessiion high. Right about where bulls headed for the exit in my bullish trade on 03/16/05.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:44:37 AM

Kellogg (K) $43.23 +0.95% ... retraces all of yesterday's late-session decline.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:43:34 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.05 +0.25% ... yesterday, this is where "bids disappeared" late in the session.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:40:51 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:40:49 AM

New session highs, with QQQQ testing 60 min channel resistance at 36.52, the 30 min channel top rising to 36.56.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:41:51 AM

Dumping a day trade long in AIG $59.30 +3.99% here at BLUE #6. Still holding the Jan. $60 Call (WAPAL) though.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:36:45 AM

I see the OEX as stuck between important MA's and historical S/R levels, with those MA's being the resistance at the daily 100/130-emas and the support at the 200-ema and 200-sma. Their importance is corroborated by the fact that the OEX has been consolidating several days between those averages, so it's difficult from this vantage point to give more weight to one or the other. On intraday charts, the OEX's pattern since Wednesday looks like a bear flag, corrective. On daily charts, the formation looks like a presumed-to-be-bearish "b" distribution formation. Yet, anyone gazing at those daily charts can also see the possibility for a H&S, with the right shoulder still to be formed. I honestly don't think it's possible to know whether the OEX will break to the upside or the downside out of that "b" distribution pattern, and so we just have to wait to see. Those with a strongly bearish bias might want to enter bearish positions on tests of the top of the presumed bear flag, selling resistance, but they sure would need some validation of a rollover in progress and sure would need a strong exit plan. Those with a strongly bullish bias might want to buy at the bottom of the bear flag's support, but they really, really need to have evidence of a bounce and a strong exit plan if proven wrong.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:35:06 AM

Tenet Healthcare (THC) $12.09 +8.04% Link ... this morning's gap higher open (see HCA) came just above WEEKLY R2 ($11.45).

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:32:24 AM

QQQQ intraday chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:31:53 AM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $59.65 +1.3% ... today's action has XOM reclaiming #1 spot in the OEX weighting with General Electric (GE) $35.88 -0.25% slipping back to #2.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:30:51 AM

Those who might be in bullish plays should be particularly careful in the 563-564 region, if the OEX should rise that high. The top of the flag and other resistance comes to play within that zone.

Those feeling all-out bullish should note that the OEX has still not produced a resounding 60-minute close above the 60-minute 21-ema, although it closed near it or slightly above it yesterday. That MA is at 561.03.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:26:53 AM

QQQQ $36.44 +0.27% .... According to NASDAQ short interest fell to 194,693,849 by March 15, with days to cover at 2.07. 02/15/05 short interest was 213,449,488 with days to cover at 2.08.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:26:10 AM

The OEX heads up now to test the top of its recent consolidation zone and the daily 21/100/130-ema's at 567.75, 565.31 and 562.77.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:26:05 AM

Another new high for QQQQ, with rising 30 min channel resistance up to 36.51, where it intersects with the 60 min channel top. Bulls need to hold north of 36.35 for the channels to continue their rise- the 60 min is trying to turn up now.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:25:37 AM

As Jane had mentioned earlier, the advdec line has improved, just now gapping higher on the five-minute chart as I watch.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:24:43 AM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $117.57 +0.22% ... According to NASDAQ, short interest rose to a 52-week high of 108,788,773 as of March 15 with days to cover at 1.85. This is up from 02/15/05 short interest of 88,123,560 and days to cover of 1.66.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:23:37 AM

The Fed took its time, but has just announced a supplemental 5.75B overnight repo, bringing the day's net drain down to just 250M.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:22:00 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.81 +0.05% .... according to NASDAQ, short interest as of March 15 was 10,700,107 with days to cover at 1.86. This is down from February's 12,407,389 shares short, with days to cover at 1.95.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:20:13 AM

Ten year treasuries have pulled back off their intraday highs of 108 37/74 (basis June ZN contract), with TNX up to a 3.2 bp loss at 4.592%. ZN bulls/TNX bears want to see TNX below 4.57%-4.58% support: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:16:53 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $58.50 +2.59% ... BLUE #4 here. BLUE #6 and DAILY R2 at $59.37.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:15:22 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/29/2005 10:11:27 AM

March Consumer Confidence just checked in at 102.4, down from a revised figure of 104.4 in February... While the data has had little impact on stocks, bonds have extended early morning gains in response, as the 10-year note is now yield 4.59%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:11:03 AM

VIX.X 13.63 -0.87% .... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 13.31, 13.51, Piv= 13.63, 13.83, 13.95.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:09:59 AM

An annotated daily chart for the OEX: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:08:44 AM

QQQQ has cleared 7200 tick SMA resistance and is back into yesterday afternoon's range. 30 min channel resistance has risen to 36.45 from its earlier low. 36.27-.30 should now act as support.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:06:09 AM

The OEX remains within its potential bear flag. Hasn't broken down and is trying to steady above the bear flag's support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:05:17 AM

iVillage (IVIL) $6.03 +2.03% ... spiked to $6.13 on volume.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:04:15 AM

The BIX hasn't broken out of its consolidation zone at the bottom of its steep decline this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:04:04 AM

Ten year treasuries have edged higher, with TNX down 3.5 bps at 4.589% here. Crude oil is up .075 at 54.125, gold +.50 at 426.50.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:03:45 AM

Like the OEX, the Dow remains poised just above its 200-3ma, with the 200-sma below that, at 10,377.18.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 10:02:27 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:02:18 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:01:25 AM

First reaction on the OEX is a small bounce, but nothing much yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 10:01:27 AM

Consumer confidence 102.4 vs. 103 exp., prior revised up from 104 to 104.4.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 10:00:52 AM

To reiterate, OEX Keltner support at the 558.40-ish region with a drop below 558.40 breaking below the bear flag's support. Resistance a little less firm than before, but looking stronger near 561.50-563.20.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:58:38 AM

If the OEX's 558.37 fifteen-minute Keltner support is violated on a closing basis, next support is now at 556.18 on that chart.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:57:58 AM

Be wary if the first move after the release is quickly reversed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 9:59:00 AM

HCA Inc. (HCA) $52.79 +7.94% Link ... surging after raising guidance. Linda may have already noted that HCA has been the best performing stock in the S&P 100 (OEX.X) so far this year. With today's gain, now up 32.51% since its 12/31/04 close! Weakest performer? Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 9:53:22 AM

The Fed has just announced a 3B 3-day repo, for a net drain of 6B today.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:52:35 AM

Ahead of the 10:00 release, the OEX heads back to 15-minute Keltner, bear flag, and MA support. It might get parked there at support just before the release.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 9:52:47 AM

The Fed is owed 9B in overnight repos from its primary dealers, and there's a 4-week bill auction today as well. A large repo will be required just to hold the open market desk's bias at neutral- the announcement is due any minute. As well, the Consumer confidence report is due to be released in 8 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:50:26 AM

The ascending trendline off Wednesday's low is at today's LOD, so in addition to bouncing from Keltner support and from just above the 200-ema, the OEX bounced from its possible bear flag's support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 9:51:10 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $58.12 +1.92% Link ... those Jan. $60 Calls (WAPAL) looking good now at $4.80 bid. Support above $54 looks to have held and early trade at $58 gets a 3-box reversal higher. Still risking $4 to potentially make $52. Relative Strength versus the DIA still bearish/weak, so small positions only! RS chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 9:44:49 AM

Session highs for QQQQ and ZN bond futures here- SPX and Dow joining in as I type. Upper 30 min channel resistance for QQQQ is at 36.48.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:43:22 AM

The OEX did bounce from that same configuration of Keltner support that it's been bouncing from, as I suggested it might do in my 9:36 post. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance is near 560.70-560.90 and again from 562-563.25, and looks stronger than support. However, the urge to position portfolios ahead of the 10:00 number may overwhelm what's on the chart.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 9:41:06 AM

Morg. Stanley Healthcare Index (RXH.X) 441.29 +1.79% ... strong move out of the gate and an all-time high! Overhead supply should be limited.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:39:16 AM

The Nasdaq slips beneath the 200-sma, but not below last Wednesday's 1985.22 low just yet. The Nasdaq is now at 1989.50.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 9:38:44 AM

Merck (MRK) $31.82 +0.18% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 9:38:21 AM

April gold is holding a 20 cent gain at 426.20, a dime off its session low with HUI +.35% at 198.09 and XAU +.17% at 92.75. QQQQ continues to struggle with resistance at yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 9:38:18 AM

Pfizer (PFE) $25.87 -1.37% ... gaps lower after saying regulators approved its depo-subQ provera 104 treatment for pain associated with endometriosis.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:37:56 AM

The SOX is back to its 200-sma again after several days of dropping off its early morning HOD.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:37:24 AM

The TRAN has dropped down to its 30-dma again, with that average prompting bounces over the last couple of days. Will it today?

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:36:02 AM

The OEX has hit the 15-minute support I mentioned in my first OEX-related post. The OEX has been bouncing from this paritcular support over the last few days, so a bounce attempt might be possible. Be careful ahead of the 10:00 numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 9:35:26 AM

Creo Inc. (CREO) $16.15 -0.24% ... Eastman Kodak (EK) $32.18 -0.89% saying it has received a second request from the Dept. of Justice for information about the company's proposed acquisition of the image software developer. On January 31, EK said it agreed to acquire CREO for $980 million in cash.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 9:32:31 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $57.25 +0.42% ... Maurince R. "Hank" Greenberg confirms he has decided to retire as nonexecutive chairman.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 9:29:23 AM

QQQQ has recovered to a 7 cent loss at 36.27, returning to yesterday's low which is now acting as resistance in the premarket. 7200 tick SMA resistance is just overhead at 36.30, above which the steep 30 min cycle downphase will stall.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 9:27:37 AM

Trader Note ... yesterday I mentioned that Taylor Devices (TAYD) $4.79 had ramped from $3.50 to then trade a session high of $6.44. Fellow trader Brian sent me an e-mail that the stock was probably boosted by yesterday's Tsunami warnings.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2005 9:23:22 AM

QQQQ $36.34 ... it is a rather quiet pre-market trade. QQQQ is most active at 3.189 million and it took two 400,000 share blocks at $36.24 to have the QQQQ on top of this morning's most active list.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2005 9:16:24 AM

Dateline WSJ The price of oil futures slipped in New York trading yesterday, amid what Dow Jones Newswires called a "lack of fresh bullish fundamental news to start the new trading week." Light, sweet crude oil for May delivery closed at $54.05 a barrel, down 79 cents. And Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a prescient forecaster of oil's steady rise since early last year, asks if the above-$40 a barrel prices in place since July is supported by market fundamentals or is the result of speculative fervor -- which would add oil to "a long list of financial bubbles." That notion of an oil-price bubble is tied to the "popularity of passively long commodity funds," CERA says, and the historical link between U.S. crude inventories and prices adds to the impression of a bubble. But the real source of the rising prices -- spare production capacity coupled with seemingly insatiable growth in demand wrought by economic expansion in China and the U.S. -- suggests it is supply-demand fundamentals that provide the real price support. CERA expects that strong demand to remain in place through 2006, as well as the "risk of $60 to $80 oil."

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 9:00:34 AM

After the steep drop through the early part of March, the OEX has for four trading days been forming a rectangular trading pattern with support roughly at the 200-ema at 557.21 and with resistance roughly at Thursday's and Monday's highs at just under 562.60. Such formations obviously serve the purpose of consolidating recent losses. They're sometimes part of a "b" distribution form, with an expected break to the downside, but this one is a bit complicated since it's forming right on top of the 200-ema at 557.21, with the 200-sma just below at 553.61 and with historical and Keltner support through that region. The OEX's daily and weekly chart patterns hint at a potential H&S, with a right shoulder still to be formed, so logic might suggest a bounce although chart characteristics don't yet point to one. Daily MACD shows only the slightest hint, in the form of less negative histogram levels, of any improvement, however, being fully bearish. CCI has been turning up the whole time that the OEX consolidates, with the upturn so far not resulting in a bounce. All these chart characteristics are also complicated by the fact that these levels have been reached ahead of today's March Consumer Confidence number, due at 10:00. I'd be careful about taking a position ahead of that number.

As I did yesterday, I see a possibility of the OEX running up into a right-shoulder formation or just keeling over, dropping below the 200-sma. The daily Keltner chart suggests that the OEX remains vulnerable to 555.75 at least, and to a much lower downside target if it produces a daily close below the Keltner line currently at that level. Here's what the 15-minute Keltner chart shows: Resistance looks stronger than support, so that the OEX looks vulnerable to the 558.70-ish zone and then to the 556.40-ish area if that first support should fail on a 15-minute closing basis. Nearby resistance is near 561 and then from 562.25-563.25. Currently, either of those two resistance levels looks stronger than the support on which the OEX ended the day, so at least 558.70 looks possible. A drop much below that will violate the rising trendline that the OEX began forming on Wednesday, and make that rise look like a bear flag. Until and unless the OEX breaks below its 200-sma, however, I believe that any downside move might be a juttering, difficult-to-trade move. A confirmation of the end-of-day weakness on the Nasdaq, closing it just below its 200-sma, might make a decline stronger, however, and we might watch how the Nasdaq performs relative to that 200-sma as a clue as to whether the OEX might hover near that important MA or just crash through it today. An OEX drop through the 200-sma confirms any weakness suggested by a break through the ascending trendline off Wednesday's low and a break above 562.60-563.00 suggests that bears should stand aside and wait for the next rollover entry. For OEX options players, I don't see a strong risk/reward setup for a long play.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 8:48:44 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from its gap down open, now up to a 10 cent loss at 36.24. This bounce, sharp as it is, needs to clear back into yesterday's range in order to stall the ongoing 30 min cycle downphase. Intraday chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 8:25:07 AM

Ten year notes are strong this morning, with TNX -2 bps at 4.604% and ZN marching higher above upper keltner resistance, a sign of a trending move in the intraday cycles. Daily TNX chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/29/2005 7:38:33 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1173.75, NQ 1474.5, YM 10474, QQQQ -.20 at 36.14. Gold is up .70 at 426.70, silver +.054 at 6.969, ten year notes +.1406 at 108 3/8 and crude oil +.10 at 54.15.

We await the 10AM release of Consumer confidence, est. 103.

Linda Piazza : 3/29/2005 7:21:22 AM

Good morning. Last night, the Nikkei was hurt by worse-than-expected economic numbers and closed almost 200 points lower. Other Asian markets declined. European markets decline, too, with oil majors dropping. Our futures dropped as Asian markets opened and have coiled since then. As of 7:12 EST, gold was up $0.40, and crude, up $0.11. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Yesterday, I mentioned one market watcher's conclusion that ex-dividend action on the Nikkei could erase 60 points from its value, with last Friday having been the last day that stocks had to be owned in order to collect the dividend. The Nikkei set about erasing those points on its way to triple-digit losses on Tuesday, helped by negative economic news. February's household spending fell a more-than-expected 4.1%, and unemployment rose to 4.7%. Retail sales declined 2.7%. Expectations had been that household spending would drop only 2.9%, and unemployment would stay steady at January's 4.5% rate. Some claimed that the number can be volatile, but investors in Nikkei stocks sent that index 192.48 points or 1.63% lower, to a close of 11,599.82. At one point early in the afternoon session, the Nikkei had dropped more than 200 points.

Despite raising its expected group pretax profit, Nippon Oil Corporation's stock was one of the losing issues. So was Sony, after a U.S. court ruling that it must pay damages to Immersion Corp. for patent infringements related to technology employed in PlayStation, PlayStation 2, and other products. Canon inched higher ahead of its shareholders' meeting Wednesday.

Other Asian markets turned lower, too. The Taiwan Weighted declined 1.45%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 1.92%. South Korea's February industrial production fell a seasonally adjusted 4.6% against expectations of a rise of 1%. Production was down 7.3% from the year-ago level. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.78%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.36%. China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.42%.

Most European markets turn lower, too, with oil-related issues being among the decliners. In the U.K., February's Mortgage Lending number was in line with the initial estimate, but mortgage approvals and average home prices both rose, suggesting to some that the bottoming-out process might have been completed. In France, the March Business Sentiment Survey unexpectedly dropped to 101 from February's 104. One source characterized the declines as broad based across all components. February's French Producer Prices rose 0.3% from January's, 3.1% year over year. Energy and food accounted for most of the increase. Also damaging sentiment in Europe were disappointing profits from Ahold.

It was a day for M&A news on Europe. Deals included Spain's Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's bid for the stake in Italy's Banca Nazionale del Lavoro not already owned; speculation about a joint bid for the U.K.'s Rentokil by two venture capital groups; speculation about four companies who might bid for MTS, owner of a European government bond trading system; speculation on Dutch bank ABN Amro's possible bid for shares of Italian bank Banca Antoveneta; and a launching of a bid by French bank BNP Paribas to obtain the shares in French retailer Galeries Lafayette not already owned. Shares of Reuters were dropping this morning due to its inclusion as one of the four companies possibly trying to buy MTS. Other stock-specific news included confirmation by French specialty chemicals company Rhodia that the AMF French markets regulator has launched an inquiry into possible accounting rule infringements during the time that French Finance Minister Thierry Breton was serving on the company's board of directors. GlaxoSmithKline received FDA approval for a once-monthly oral table for postmenopausal osteoporosis, but still dropped in European trading, hit by negative sentiment. The co-promoter and developer of the tablet, Roche Holdings, did eke out a small gain in early trading.

As of 7:12 EST, the FTSE 100 had fallen 24.90 points or 0.51%, to trade at 4,897.60. The CAC 40 had fallen 24.81 points or 0.61%, to trade at 4,053.50. The DAX had fallen 26.41 points or 0.61%, to trade at 4,317.19.

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