Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 10:23:21 PM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.52 and set for program selling at $+1.92.

OI Technical Staff : 3/30/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 6:11:32 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 6:00:33 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 5:30:00 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 4:14:28 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity .... Stopped out of the swing trade short for 312 shares of Merck (MRK) at $32.30. ($-0.30, or -0.94%) Stopped out of the three (3) swing trade MRK April $30 Puts (MRK-PF) at $0.10 per contract. ($+0.20, or +66.67%) Day trade shorted shares of eBay (EBAY) at $37.59, closed out at $37.19. ($+0.40, or +1.06%).

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 4:07:02 PM

The chop zone that has held along the top of today's range has resulted in a weak rollover in the overbought 30 min cycle oscillator, opposed to the upturned, oversold daily cycle. The 10-day stochastic is on a buy signal, not yet confirmed by the Macd which is on a bullish kiss. The 30 min cycle bias is down, but unless the bears have a whole lot more conviction than they showed this afternoon, the 30 min cycle downphase should be corrective and abort either early, or from a higher low, or both. A bounce from 36.25 or better would confirm the daily cycle upphase and set up QQQQ for a break above today's highs in a new daily cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 3:55:19 PM

eBay (EBAY) $37.46 +3.76% ... with BRUT showing size all the way from $34.18 at the bid. Was watching him, but didn't think he was all that serious. Then suddenly .... Leve II can come in handy sometimes, but you really have to watch on a minute-by-minute basis and try to figure out what everyone's position is.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:53:20 PM

It looks as if today's OEX daily candle will nearly qualify as a bullish engulfing candle. It didn't engulf all of yesterday's lows due to that gap higher this morning.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:51:23 PM

The OEX has broken out above the neckline of a rough continuation-form inverse H&S visible on its five-minute chart. It's so roughly shaped that I'm not sure it's valid, particularly as there didn't appear to be bullish divergence as the head was formed. So far, the OEX gains, however.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:49:14 PM

Earlier, the RLX turned down from the neckline of a large inverse H&S visible on its 30-minute chart, formed through the last couple of weeks. It's rising toward that 529.00-529.30-ish neckline (depending on how you draw it) again, at 427.75 as I type, with 30-minute oscillators flattening and not giving many clues as to whether the RLX will confirm or reject that formation.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:46:04 PM

NDX now testing its 200-ema. This average does have some relevance on the NDX's chart, as both January and February lows were tests of this average, currently at 1492.23.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:44:46 PM

The BIX is above 350, but still within the vaguely flag-ish, almost rectangular consolidation pattern, top just under 352. Currently, the BIX is at 351.29.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 3:42:35 PM

Session highs for ten year bond futures and crude oil here, with QQQQ holdings its 10 cent range between 36.60 and 36.70. The 30 and 60 min channels are stalled and sliding sideways here.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:40:24 PM

Without a quick reversal, the TRAN has risen above the appropriate right-shoulder level for the new lumpy-headed version of a H&S it had appeared to be forming. It never met the downside target for the other, confirmed H&S with an ascending neckline. Once again, bearish formations are not seeing follow-through, at least not yet. Triple-top level being tested, though, for today in this index.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:38:28 PM

Weird action on the advdecv line. I'm not certain whether the data is good or not.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 3:32:23 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 3:33:16 PM

Bearish day trade close out alert for eBay (EBAY) $37.19 +3% ... here. BRUT might be a buyer toward the close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 3:28:56 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.11 +1.01% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:28:15 PM

Bulls will have noticed an inverse H&S forming on the 15-minute OEX chart, with the head at yesterday's low. The trouble is that it began forming in a consolidation zone and it's roughly formed. If valid, and I'm not at all certain that it is, the neckline would be at about 562.60.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 3:28:15 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $56.81 -2.31% ... sets up for another test of session low and WEEKLY Pivot after S&P cuts it rating on the company's debt.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:21:26 PM

The advdecv line still climbs.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 3:17:21 PM

May crude oil is open again for the evening session, trading a high of 54.075 here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 3:17:02 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for eBay (EBAY) $37.35 +3.46% ... to $37.51.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 3:11:36 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:10:40 PM

All that zooming around on the OEX means that the 15-minute Keltner lines have just been scattered everywhere again.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:08:45 PM

The OEX doesn't have anything so well ordered as a potential H&S to watch on that five-minute chart. It's zooming around.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 3:07:30 PM

If the TRAN is just rising into a new H&S on the five-minute chart, this one with a lumpy head formed of the original head and right shoulder from the already confirmed H&S, it should flatten in the current 3718-3720 zone.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 3:06:12 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 3:04:25 PM

May crude finished lower by .325 at 53.90, but posted a nice reversal off the 52.50 low: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 2:59:24 PM

A forex news service notes that this week's bullish sentiment among advisory newsletters declined for the third week in a row, and is, at 51.6%, at its lowest since late September. The spread between bulls and bears narrowed to 23.6 percentage points. This source notes that, historically, this is still a rather wide spread, but it has narrowed from the year-ago level. This source speculates that high recent short interest may be leading to some short-covering as the month comes to an end, but doesn't express great optimism for next week's market behavior.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:57:39 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for eBay (EBAY) $37.40 +3.61% .... to break even.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 2:55:38 PM

$SPX 15 minute chart. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 2:54:41 PM

The TRAN's five-minute pattern looks different than the OEX's and many other indices'. The TRAN appeared to confirm a H&S at the top of its climb, with an ascending neckline. It fell to a Fib level we watched earlier today, the 50% retracement of the most recent plummet, at about 3710, and the TRAN now attempts to bounce. There's a possibility that a new H&S neckline could be drawn at this level, with the former head and right shoulder forming a lumpy head for the new formation. If so, a bounce up toward 3718-3720 might be in the making. That would constitute a retest of the first neckline as well as the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 2:53:50 PM

QQQQ bounces from 36.50, retesting 36.60-.64 from below here. The 30 min channel should continue to turn lower below 7200 tick SMA resistance at 36.66. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:53:52 PM

June Crude Oil futues (cl05m) $54.70 -0.45% (30-minute delayed) ... big comeback here. We just looked at it! (see 01:44:59)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 2:51:44 PM

TNX looks to close in the next 10 minutes just off its low of the day, currently -3.3 bps at 4.558%. Lower rising support on the daily chart didn't break despite today's gravestone doji: Link

Mark Davis : 3/30/2005 2:49:51 PM

Jeff that is exactly what I am worried about. Once a pattern becomes obvious to everyone it usually changes. The question is "Can we pull off a late day fade 4 day in a row?" I talked with Keene a couple of days ago and we both noted you can "out contrarian" yourself, i.e., you think you are being contrarian but everybody else is being contrarian also, which puts you "in the crowd"... Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 2:48:18 PM

A morning star pattern similar to the one that Mark pointed out in his 2:37 post on the Futures side was produced by the OEX, too, and then immediately reversed. Are we beginning to see bullish formations fail now?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:48:17 PM

Starbucks (SBUX) $52.44 -0.24% .... choppy today. Back lower here. Was thinking I was going to get this one shoved down my throat today from the put side. May still. How many cups of coffee does it take to equate a gallong of gasoline? (This is one thing I've actually thought about. Do I buy coffee on the way to work, or put gas in the tank?)

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 2:45:53 PM

Lots of zooming around that's difficult to identify as a specific pattern on the top of the OEX's climb. However, such zooming around, with increasing volatility, is sometimes seen as a sign of emotion-based trading and is usually considered more bearish than bullish when it comes at the top of a climb. Just think of how consolidation usually looks, for example, and compare it to this pattern. Still, we've already seen some "usually bearish" formations break to the upside today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:45:23 PM

Apple (AAPL) $42.31 +1.36% ... it fades a bit. Didn't quite get to its WEEKLY Pivot ($42.84)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 2:44:48 PM

QQQQ lost 36.60 support and is drilling both the 30 and 60 min channels lower. 36.50 is next intraday confluence, but the surge in volume suggests that the short cycle downphase isn't done yet- just approaching oversold territory now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:43:35 PM

Now is when a day trade bear needs to be a little careful. What we've seen the past several sessions is the "afternoon fade." Once everyone picks up on it, that's when things can change. Look around... EVV $17.66 +0.51%, PHF $8.72 +0.57% ... get a feel.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:41:03 PM

eBay (EBAY) $37.49 +3.85% ... day trader's chart at this Link ... thinking about VIX.X observation (see 02:32:40) and its action.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 2:38:33 PM

XLB To expand on my earlier post today on XLB. Link

Take a look at Monsanto (MON) Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:34:51 PM

eBay (EBAY) $37.56 +4.04% ... buyers still firm at BLUE #6 ($37.47).

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:32:40 PM

VIX.X 13.89 -4.14% ... day trader's chart with WEEKLY/DAILY Pivot levels from QCharts at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 2:29:58 PM

It doesn't look as if the OEX is going to truly confirm the evening-star pattern during this 60-minute period. The shape of the candles are right, but the decline this 60-minute period wasn't quite deep enough. Still, the formation isn't bullish, either, leaving us in a quandary, as we have been most of the day.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 2:25:10 PM

That quick reversal in the OEX during the stop-running time has now itself been reversed.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 2:25:04 PM

QQQQ testing lower channel support, lined up with the 36.60 line here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:23:22 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 2:20:07 PM

QQQQ has lost 7200 tick SMA support for the second time here, with ten year treasuries dropping as well, TNX up to a 2.8 bp loss at 4.563%. QQQQ's failure came from a slightly lower low- bears need to see 36.60 broken to avoid the short cycle downphase stalling out.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:17:56 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.10 +0.98% ... breadth positive at 29:1. AIG $57.41 -1.35% ... woop... AA $29.56 -0.03% just inching negative.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:16:32 PM

VIX.X 13.78 -4.89% ... did just kiss its WEEKLY Pivot in last 20 minutes. SPX 1,179.03 +1.17% here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:14:53 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 2:09:13 PM

INTC Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 2:03:44 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 2:06:47 PM

ZN bonds dipped below their 30 min cycle midpoint and then dojied back up, just as QQQQ was bouncing from 36.62, currently back above the 7200 tick SMA. Despite a nominal new high from ES just now, QQQQ needs to overcome combined 30/60 min resistance to restart the 30 min upphase. So far, the short cycle downphase has been corrective and weak. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 2:01:14 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 2:00:37 PM

I'm not seeing any weakness in the advdecv to corroborate the downturn, and there's an immediate bounce attempt. This was a downturn from the top of the recent consolidation level, but it came during the prime stop-running time of day.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:57:46 PM

Now it's time to snap a Fib bracket on the rise off yesterday's low. On the OEX, the 38.2% retracement is at 559.40 and the 50% at 558.57.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:55:21 PM

The SOX tests the confirmation level for the H&S on its five-minute chart, dipping below the five-minute 21-ema for the first time since early this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 1:54:23 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:49:08 PM

Careful, traders. We're in the prime stop-running time of day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 1:49:27 PM

Bearish day trade short alert for eBay (EBAY) $37.59 here, stop $37.80, target $37.01. WEEKLY R2 right in here at $37.59. BLUE #6 at $37.47.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:47:17 PM

The SOX rounds over at the right-shoulder level for the potential H&S on its five-minute chart. As it does, it's approaching the five-minute 21-ema from which it's been bouncing all day today. That average is at 418.45. CCI has dipped into negative territory, but hasn't produced many bars at negative levels and might still turn up quickly, signaling a zero-line rejection. Still watching to see if that happens or if the SOX confirms the H&S.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 1:46:41 PM

QQQQ just broke the 7200 tick SMA for the first time today. Support is next at 36.60-.65 QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:48:48 PM

So far, the OEX isn't declining during this 60-minute period, not moving to confirm the evening-star pattern that might have been confirmed this period after the 11:30 hour's strong gain and the second hour's doji. Neither has it resumed a strong gain, in fact slipping a little. Still watching.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 1:44:59 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) review and updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link My (Jeff Bailey's) mindset here is that traders are now "square" and somewhat neutral. Taking it easy, and not overly aggressive with any trade.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:41:57 PM

The SOX, too, has been bouncing from tests of its 5-minute 21-ema, currently at 418.39, complete with CCI zero-line-rejections with each bounce. However, I note when studying that five-minute chart, that there's a potential for a topping H&S at the top of today's climb on that five-minute chart (different from the 60-minute continuation-form one I mentioned earlier). A push to a new high will invalidate it. A drop below 418 would confirm it. It's small with a small downside target, but watching whether it confirms or is rejected and meets its downside target if confirmed should give insight into the short-term strengths or weaknesses of the market.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 1:40:21 PM

QQQQ feels like it's trading on much lighter volume than it actually is- currently, 71.4M shares have traded, aiming for a lighter session than yesterday's big 119.6M but should still come in at or above the average of 96.5M. Price continues to hold on the 7200 tick SMA line, but not breaking below despite the short cycle downphase in progress for the past 2 hours.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:34:02 PM

The TRAN has been pulling back. All day, it's been finding support on its five-minute 21-ema, with CCI zero-line-rejections accompanying each test of and bounce from that average. The still in progress test looked a little different, with candle shadows piercing the average, the average flattening, and CCI moving below the zero line now for more than three bars before attempting the current upturn. So far, prices behave well, but keep a watch on the TRAN as a first responder to a change in sentiment.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 1:32:29 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) ... updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link .... Under the backdrop of growing economy, LOWER yields in SAFER Treasuries should give investors INCREASED appetite for YIELD in RISKIER high grade corporates (EVV) and eventually "junk" (PHF). That is .... growing economy and low rates of inflation. Remember the old saying .... "the Fed moves in 7?"

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:30:23 PM

During the just-completed 60-minute period, the OEX formed a doji at the top of a climb. You know what to watch for during this next 60-minute period.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 1:27:30 PM

ZN bond futures are edging back to their session highs, currently trading 108 3/4 off a high of 108 25/32. QQQQ is edging lower, however, ticking below 7200 tick SMA support as I type but not yet breaking free. If high yields present the same drag as high oil, then weakness in QQQQ alongside a rising ZN/declining TNX is divergent. If one of the two is lying, my guess would be the small market- QQQQ. If so, then this sideways decline off the high should resolve to the upside. Bulls want to see 36.60-.64 hold for any retest.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 1:20:40 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:19:56 PM

The OEX's quick zoom higher has skewed the 15-minute Keltner chart's evidence, scattering the Keltner lines. It's facing resistance on that chart at about 562.17 at a double-top level from 3/28, but the Keltner resistance doesn't look so firm that it's impossible for the OEX to break it. At the same time, support hasn't had an opportunity to firm, either, with nearest support scattered from 559.85-560.99, a rather wide range.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 1:17:53 PM

WEEKLY Pivots all around with QQQQ and SOX.X stronger. VIX.X 13.73 -5.24% juuuuust above its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 1:17:31 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:15:12 PM

I dislike days like these when we see competing bearish and bullish chart setups. That's one of the reasons I don't like to trade movements that might be countertrend ones. As I study the SOX and dial down to that 60-minute chart, there's the price/MACD bullish divergence on the last swing low that Tab has already mentioned and that was also evident on the TRAN's chart. However, the SOX is still within its recent consolidation pattern and there's a hint of a continuation-form H&S setting up. A push much above 420 would invalidate the formation. Tab has great insight into the charts he tracks and I don't trust continuation-form H&S's, but that doesn't mean that I won't watch this one, either for a confirmation or invalidation.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 1:09:13 PM

Nice move Jeff, I figured at least a 15% gainer on interest and capt gains on the next leg up here for EVV. Just keep an eye on that $FVX. Also, I believe next dividend payout is 4/7/05.Dividend & Yield: 1.61 (9.19%)

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 1:07:45 PM

QQQQ tests rising 7200 tick SMA support here at 37.67, with the 30 min cycle channel hanging in the balance: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:07:08 PM

The advdecv (volume) does continue to advance as indices climb, though, so perhaps I should be watching that, too, as Jane suggests doing.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 1:05:37 PM

I hear you Linda, as you know, I like to use the Summation Indexes as a confirmation to the trend of the market. For the Nasdaq - $NASI, for the $SPX, $NYSI. I wouuld like to see a reversal signal either today or this week to back up some other signals as a confirmation. So, I can understand your cautious stance. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 1:05:20 PM

Tab ... I'm VERY glad you brought this type of fund to my attention. Fits in with asset classes in the "Beetle's Balanced" and important view from bond market in the scope of economy/Fed/inflation. I picked up some EVV at $17.60 this morning for the IRA.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 1:04:43 PM

Bonds remain firm. TNX is down 2.3 bps at 4.568%. This remains above the trendline I've been using since last week. I've added a second, tighter line that ignores the lower doji shadows- by that measure, the uptrend was broken by this morning's drop. The bearish divergence on the 10-day stochastic suggests that a break of the lower support line could result in a sharp move down from there. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 1:03:38 PM

Lots of times I see the advdec line's shape mimicking that of the OEX or SPX, but it's not today and that has me worried.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 1:03:04 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 12:59:27 PM

I see those divergences, Tab, and noted the one visible on the TRAN. Particularly on the OEX, I see the possibility of the OEX bouncing from the 200-sma, into the right shoulder level for its possible H&S on the daily chart, so I see lots of reasons, some just logic-based, some chart-based, for the OEX in particular to bounce, maybe for a few days or even a week or two. However, something isn't feeling just right, either, so I'm not feeling all that bullish. I guess you'd have to say I'm feeling countertrend-ish. Smile. I wouldn't be surprised to see markets just keel over, either.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 12:59:04 PM

Jeff....nice chart and observations on EVV.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 12:56:05 PM

$GOLD/NY Spot 12:53PM Bid/ $427.40; Ask /$427.90; +1.90; +0.45% Low/425.40; High 428.10

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 12:52:58 PM

Linda...think you're on to something here with the bullish divergences on the 60 minute charts. Just ran some on the major indexes, INDU, SPX,OEX, NYA, COMPQ, & NDX. Same formations. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:52:44 PM

Eaton Vance Ltd Duration (EVV) Chart/thoughts at this Link . EVV looks to hold higher grade CORPORATES and keeps maturities shorter-term.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 12:49:42 PM

Despite my watching for signs of bearish divergence, I'm aware and you should be, too, that bulls have been ruling today on the OEX. Despite a number of 15-minute candles showing upper shadows, the OEX never really pulled back, even minimally, before shooting higher again. An attempt to set up a bearish evening-star formation under resistance was met with enough buying to reject the formation. We're seeing one of those days when bearish formations begin to set up, a new entry appearing to be on the verge of confirming, when there's another push higher. That signals danger to bears, and the pattern needs to change before bears consider new entries. Markets have declined quite a while, and should be able to get a strong short-covering relief rally going if the gains get away from the bears, so you could get beat up trying to enter on apparent rollovers. With that said, I'm watching for signs of such a rollover, especially with the OEX currently retesting the top of its recent consolidation pattern. This has been a good place until now to sell resistance for a quick scalping-type play, but will it be now?

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 12:47:54 PM

Despite the lack of movement, QQQQ is in a weak short cycle downphase that looks corrective so far. Link If so, a break above the session high just a few cents away, would reverse it early and set the stage for the next meltup. Current 30 min channel resistance is up to 38.83, and continues to rise- note that the price has yet to print south of the 7200 tick SMA today.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 12:43:06 PM

If the OEX should fall below 561 before it reaches a new high, it will have shown bearish divergence of the type I mentioned in my 12:31 post.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:37:12 PM

Correction to 12:34:57 post. That was a "bad tick" at $17.90. EVV $17.70 +0.73%. I'll follow with a chart I put together late last night.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:34:57 PM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.90 +1.87% ... trades 61.8% of bearishly fitted 38.2% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:32:45 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $3.84 -4.47% ... mentioned in BusinessWeek. Good article on the business of nanotechnology at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 12:31:27 PM

As the OEX has climbed today, it has formed a rising regression channel, with support currently at about 560.50 and resistance currently at about 562.15. Over the last hour, the OEX has been retreating only to the midline of that rising regression channel, not even to bottom support, accelerating its gains. Not seeing any signs of bearish divergence yet. With a rising channel, that occurs when next approaches to the top of the channel fall short.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 12:30:04 PM

Gold and silver have firmed along with equities, with April gold currently up 1.5 at 427.70 and May silver +.163 at 7.15. HUI and XAU are up 1.38% at 198.61 and 1.01% at 92.85 respectively, with crude oil -2.44% at 52.90.

QQQQ is bouncing from its first test of 36.65, currently back to 36.70. A lower high would suggest a more aggressive retest of immediate support to follow.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:28:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 12:28:20 PM

An OEX evening-star confirmation now looks unlikely during this 15-minute period.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 12:26:06 PM

Headline:

12:24pm MAGNITUDE 6.3 TEMBLOR HITS OFF WEST COAST OF N SUMATRA

No details yet.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 12:23:34 PM

There's the potential for an evening-star pattern to be completed during the current 15-minute period, but it hasn't been completed yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:22:48 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 2.6 bp at 4.565%. Looking 4.5% here. Updated daily interval bar chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 12:19:14 PM

QQQQ update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:15:21 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 12:15:21 PM

Tab, I was just noting something like that (bullish divergence) on the TRAN's chart, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 12:09:19 PM

We have buy signals on the daily QQQQ and NQ charts, with bullish crosses from the 10-day stochastics. The Macd has yet to confirm, but a close at or above current levels should do it. These are the highest prints in nearly two weeks for QQQQ.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 12:34:38 PM

Linda....not sure on bearish flag. However, the $SOX 60 minute chart is setting up a support/resistance level, could prove to be a bullish breakout here. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 12:05:40 PM

The OEX also tests a 60-minute Keltner line that has held as resistance on 60-minute closes since 3/09, with that line currently at 561.75, right at the inverse H&S's upside target. That 60-minute chart shows bullish price/MACD divergence on the last swing low this week, but the new bullish cross is from below signal and tentative as yet. Still waiting to see how this resistance is treated and where a relief rally might stop. As I noted this morning, the Keltner setup was such that it was difficult to tell where it might stop if it got past the first resistance level, which it did.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:02:34 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 12:00:11 PM

The OEX approaches the upside 561.60-ish target from the confirmed inverse H&S. I'm still noting that the advdec line isn't following the pattern of the index gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 11:59:44 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart at this Link . This is last ditch for the daily cycle bears, if QQQQ can get back below 36.60-.64 confluence.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 12:00:18 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 418.89 +2.12% ... edges above yesterday's high. After pullback kiss of WEEKLY Pivot intra-day, WEEKLY R1 looks achievable.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:58:43 AM

New high on the TRAN, so the pullback was shallower than I'd thought it might be--only to the five-minute 100-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 11:49:30 AM

QQQQ is testing upper 30 min channel resistance at the level that stopped the rally attempts last week- do or doo-doo time for the bears with the daily cycle turning up.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:46:18 AM

As others may have already noted, the Nasdaq is again testing its 200-sma, having inched just above it. Similar test underway on the NDX, but the SOX has moved above its 200-sma but a greater amount. All remain within recent consolidaiton zones, however.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 11:45:57 AM

buy program

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 11:44:24 AM

Eaton Vance Limited Duration Income Fund (EVV) Jeff and I brought up 2 income funds on Thursday. He tracks PHF and I track EVV. I highlighted the $17.50 level as an entry point. As indicated on this chart. Link Present EVV chart Link Present $FVX chart Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:42:30 AM

I'm just not entirely convinced yet of the sustainability of the OEX's climb. Immediately after it climb back above the former support of the bear flag, it halted and began forming 15-minute candles with upper shadows, which it continues to do. This may just be consolidation, but these rows of spiky candles usually suggest at least a small pullback. On the OEX, that might be a pullback to 558.75 or so. A dip below that would bring the OEX back below the former support again.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 11:41:34 AM

QQQQ update at this Link . With the short cycle ticking lower, volume falling off, and 7200 tick SMA support up to 36.49 and rising, a break of either 36.49 or above 36.64 should be directional.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:40:15 AM

The TRAN continues to show bearish divergence on the five-minute chart with respect to the CCI indicator.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:37:31 AM

Tab, I'm not sure it has legs, either, but that bullish divergence you were pointing out in the first of the two charts at least did a good job of predicting today's bounce. I always like looking at your charts. Do you think that's a bear flag being depicted on the second or something more bullish?

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:35:03 AM

The TRAN is declining, as I suspected it might do, but for now, it's just retesting the five-minute 21/100/130-ema's. I still wouldn't be surprised to see it decline toward 3700 again.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 11:33:42 AM

Bonds have firmed again, with TNX back to testing the rising daily support line after a rejection at unchanged earlier this morning: Link

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 11:32:29 AM

Linda...here's a followup $SOX chart I posted yesterday @ 11.33AM. Not sure as of yet if this bounce today has legs? Link Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:24:44 AM

The OEX's 15-minute candles are producing upper shadows, so there may be a pullback, but there's no proof as yet that it will be anything other than a shallow pullback toward 558.75. Could be lower, but there's just no proof yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 11:23:58 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:23:22 AM

Time to look at the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart and see what it says. Not much. It's kind of a mess right now. Support is trying to firm up beneath the OEX, from about 558.77-559.23, but it doesn't yet look particularly strong, and resistance is trying to firm up, too, near 560.80, but that looks even more ambiguous.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 11:32:22 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert ... for Merck (MRK) $32.30 +0.87% here. Also closing out the previously sold MRK April $30 Puts (MRK-PF) at $0.10 per contract.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:17:44 AM

The RLX is testing the top boundary of the recent consolidation zone building above its 200-sma, but it looks as if its linked 30- and 50-sma's might provide strong resistance if it does attempt a move higher. Those averages are near 434.80 with the RLX currently at 428.44.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 11:16:10 AM

QQQQ has drifted plungelessly through the lower rising wedge support line, holding above 36.50. Crude oil is back up to 53, off a low of 52.675.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 11:15:29 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 11:11:22 AM

The US Dollar Index continues its bounce above 84 support but below yesterday's range. Intraday chart at this Link . Daily chart at this Link .

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 11:07:25 AM

The TRAN has not been able to build on the move above the five-minute 100/130-ema's, and in fact hovers near the 130-ema. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback toward 3700-3705.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 11:05:46 AM

June Crude Oil futures (cl05m) $54.00 -1.72% (30-minute delayed) .... plunging.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 11:05:20 AM

ENTRY LEVEL HIT ON XLB- MATERIALS SELECT SPDR As I posted yesterday, 3/29/2005 12:03:36 PM. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 11:02:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 11:00:41 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.55 +1.38%, INTC $23.28 +0.56%, SPY $117.29 +0.64%, MSFT $24.12 +0.83%, SIRI $5.52 +2.60%, HPQ $21.63 -0.73%, JDSU $1.60 (unch), CSCO $17.97 +1.23%, ORCL $12.58 +2.44%, AMAT $16.66 +2.14%

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:58:54 AM

QQQQ is edging back from 36.60-.64 resistance, but the upward surge today has restored the daily cycle to its preliminary bullish cross. It's just noise with QQQQ below 36.64, but the daily cycle wants to turn up from these levels. Meanwhile, the short cycle is way overbought and trending. 7200 tick SMA support is at 36.40, and as long as price holds above it, the 30 min cycle will remain bullish and the short cycle will continue to trend.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:56:21 AM

Depending on where you place the neckline for the OEX's confirmed inverse H&S, the upside target is somewhere around 561.60. Like the TRAN, however, five-minute CCI is not confirming the upside move.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:53:21 AM

The TRAN did produce a five-minute close above the 100/130-ema's, but it continues to show pronounced bearish divergence as it climbs when compared to the CCI. I have absolutely no other evidence to suggest that a pullback will occur, but remain watchful for it anyway. The TRAN has a habit sometimes of overrunning targets, so I'm wondering if it might not still reverse. Makes me wonder about the rally's sustainability, in this index at least.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 10:51:54 AM

MURPHY OIL (MUR) Been awhile since I said anything about this chart. But, as Jim has mentioned, oil should be purchased on a pullback. I agree and here's where I see MUR going and entry points. Link

$WTIC trading down on EIA report today. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:51:13 AM

QQQQ is retesting yesterday's high here, now working on resistance to 36.64. That level has capped every rally attempt since last week.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:50:18 AM

That sure looks like a bearish rising wedge on the advdec line.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:49:31 AM

TRAN now pushing above the 130-ema, and those hoping the markets bounce today will want to see it maintain that push higher through this five-minute period.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:47:17 AM

The reaction to the inventories number pushed the TRAN out of its consolidation zone from this morning, but only into the zone between its 100-ema and 130-ema. It hasn't been able to clear both, particularly not on a five-minute closing level. The 100-ema is at 3709.24 and the 130-ema at 3715.31, with the TRAN currently at 3711.70. Still watching for either a push above these averages, important in the TRAN's behavior or from a failure from them.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 10:45:53 AM

AAPL and SMH look almost identical on 5-minute intervals (21-pd SMA, 50-pd SMA, 200-pd SMA) Darned near identical in WEEKLY Pivots too.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:43:43 AM

QQQQ update at this Link . If 36.44 breaks hard with a surge in volume, then the intraday bear wedge interpretation will project a move to 36.23.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:42:28 AM

Silver has extended its gains, now up 1.3% at 7.078, despite the lack of movement in gold at 426.50. The miners are holding fractional gains, not doing much either. The same goes for ten year bonds, TNX -1 bp at 4.581% and still holding above the daily rising trendline. All the action is in equities this morning.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:42:02 AM

The BIX is climbing now, but still within its recent consolidation zone. It's at 348.44, with each attempt to push above 350 being rebuffed over the last week.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 10:42:01 AM

Frontier Airlines (FRNT) $10.46 +13.08% Link ... Denver-based discounter upgraded to "buy" at Merrill.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:39:58 AM

Quick reversal in the making or is the OEX just pausing on the support of its five-minute 100/130-ema's?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 10:39:23 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.55 +1.18% ... right back at yesterday's bullish entry. WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $31.65, $32.15, Piv= $32.52, $33.02, $33.39.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 10:37:47 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 415.09 +1.2% ... back at WEEKLY Pivot here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:35:06 AM

QQQQ has surged past rising 30 min cycle resistance at 36.50, correcting the potential short cycle bearish divergence noted earlier. 7200 tick SMA support has risen to 36.35. The 30 min cycle will remain bullish above that level, but the key test remains at teh 36.60-.64 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:33:14 AM

Headlines:

10:31am DOE: GASOLINE SUPPLIES DOWN 2.9 MILLION BARRELS

10:32am MAY CRUDE FUTURES DIP BELOW $53 A BARREL LEVEL

10:31am MAY CRUDE OFF $1.23 AT $53 A BARREL

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:32:45 AM

Immediate surge on the OEX on the news. That definitely pops it above the inverse H&S neckline, but be watchful of a quick reversal.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:31:55 AM

Headline:

10:30am DOE: CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 5.4 MILLION BARRELS

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:30:34 AM

Sesssion low for Nymex crude at 53- awaiting the data right now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 10:32:30 AM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 49.34 +4.33% ... sector upgraded.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 10:31:24 AM

SONY (SNE) Sony is bouncing back today after a big drop yesterday. I raised the question if Sony was a short on Monday (11:09AM post). It did drop to the $39.40 level,as indicated on this chart Fib retracement. Link

However, will the decline continue to the lower end of the ascending channel? Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:29:02 AM

The advdec line attempts to climb again.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:28:40 AM

The TRAN also pauses just beneath its five-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages at 3709.14 and 3715.42, and with these averages clearly having relevance in the TRAN's trading behavior. It was from a test of these averages on 3/10 that the TRAN fell away into the steep decline. Those averages are now at about the 50% retracement of that steep decline, with the TRAN finding support this morning at the 38.2% retracement, but pausing beneath the 50% one.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:26:34 AM

Besides the resistance offered by the former support of the bear flag, the OEX faces resistance at its five-minute 100/130-ema's this morning, with those averages at 558.84 and 559.15.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2005 10:25:48 AM

The action in the gold market doesn't give the impression that longs are rushing back into the market on the long side. In fact, given the recent weakness in gold, it might be a victory for gold just to have halted the downward pattern of prices seen for most of March. Bottomline, the gold market clearly needs a resumption of the downside action in the Dollar just to respect recent support of $427. The German government continues to press for IMF gold sales to fund debt relief. Therefore, one should continue to be neutral on gold unless the June Dollar falls back below 84.00. EUR/USD Link $GOX Link GLD Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:22:04 AM

There may be a lower high in the making on the advdec line, but the OEX continues to test the former support of its bear flag, violated yesterday, and continues to push higher into the inventories numer.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 10:19:59 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 10:14:13 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:13:08 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link . Price has to hold north of 36.34 long enough to allow the short cycle stochastic to catch up to the move- a decline from here will result in a bearish short cycle stochastic divergence.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:11:37 AM

The OEX and some other indices have reached a new HOD. The advdec line has not. That's divergence, if it continues.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:09:27 AM

Depending on how you draw the neckline for that inverse H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, the OEX may be testing/pushing above it right now, with the OEX at 558.79, testing the bear flag's support.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:08:22 AM

There's a potential for an inverse H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, with this morning's pullback constituting the right shoulder.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:07:43 AM

And there goes the OEX, testing the day's high and about to test the former bear flag support at about 559. It did stabilize at the 38.2% retracement of the day's range. Gotta love those Fib brackets.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:07:22 AM

QQQQ breaks the previous high on a burst of volume- upper 30 min channel resistance is at 36.45. 7200 tick SMA support has risen to 36.20.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:06:27 AM

The BIX remains within its recent trading range, too, a possible "b" distribution pattern. The BIX is nearer support than resistance, though, not joining in any gains today. That's a problem for those hoping for a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:05:08 AM

The RLX is another index that's been testing its 200-ema and -sma, and the bounce this morning began at the 200-sma. It's still inside the recent trading range, however, not having broken out. That range is narrowing on the daily chart. Time for a breakout soon?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 10:02:33 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 10:02:08 AM

The OEX hasn't stabilized yet, although it's still holding above the 38.2% retracement of the day's range.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:01:24 AM

The Fed had 5.75B in overnight repos expiring and has just announced an 8.25B overnight repo, for a net add of 2.5B for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 10:00:07 AM

The markets feel tentative this morning with the move in equities relatively strong. Tdn year bonds are trading both sides of unchanged, with gold, silver and the miners positive but with only minor moves. The US Dollar Index tested 84 support again and held, but like with the TNX, the bounce is far from convincing so far.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:59:33 AM

The OEX is at a 38.2% retracement of the day's range as this first retracement period of the day draws to a close. Those hoping for a bounce now want to see the OEX stabilize at this Fib level and move up again, and they want to see the advdec line do the same. The OEX earlier climbed just under the former support for the bear flag, and this would be another classic place at which to enter a new bearish position, especially since this also constitutes a test of the 200-ema, but, once again, internals aren't giving bears the go-ahead signal.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 9:56:55 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.45 +1.30% ... testing its 21-day SMA here. Short interest building to 115,137,133 as of 03/15/05 with days to cover at 2.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 9:54:29 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $56.71 -2.56% ... gives back all of yesterday's gains after the company said it had found instances of improper accounting and will delay its annual report filing with the SEC for a second time.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:52:12 AM

The OEX does pull back from the 15-minute 21-pma, but the pullback hasn't been much so far. Here are some Fib numbers snapped on the day's range so far, with the comment that these are approximate since the bracket was snapped rather than the numbers calculated. I might have been a hair off placing the bracket. A 38.2% retracement of the day's range so far is at 557.59, a 50% retracement at 557.33, and a 61.8% retracement at 557.06. Those hoping for a bounce (perhaps including bears who want a new entry) want to see the OEX hold above the 50% retracement in this first retracement of the day. They don't want to see the OEX come down and fill that gap.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 9:51:03 AM

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $1.57 -1.25% ... all-time low here.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 9:48:52 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , pulling back to test premarket resistance turned support.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:48:29 AM

Perhaps some of you didn't catch Marc's comments in the overnight session or my Asia/Europe update this morning, but OPEC ministers decided against an immediate increase in production yesterday, deciding that any increase would be postponed to the summer months, so that the inventories number will perhaps draw even more attention than usual, especially with last week's explosion at a major gasoline refining facility.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 9:47:42 AM

I'm having some problems with quote feeds this morning and currently running blind.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:46:45 AM

The OEX pauses at its 15-minute 21-ema, perhaps beginning a pullback. The depth of this pullback will tell us about bullish/bearish determination ahead of the inventories number, but perhaps won't be particularly useful in telling us what will happen afterwards--unless there's a big, big move, that is.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:45:25 AM

SOX jammed up underneath its 200-sma. Has tested it already, but hasn't yet been able to maintain values above it. This still looks as if the SOX is within a consolidation zone.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:42:48 AM

As we enter the period for the first retracement of the day, the OEX still tests the 15-minute 21-ema. Those hoping for strength today will want to see that first retracement cover only 38.2%-50% of the morning's range. Bears will want to see evidence of another rollover in the making, and they'll want it corroborated by a rollover in that very strong advdec climb. A rollover looks unlikely right now, and maybe before the inventories numbers are released, at least.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 9:38:23 AM

So far no weakness from QQQQ, once again rising above the 30 and 60 min channels and indicating trending strength. QQQQQ is bullish above 36.20, and above 36.10, the 30 min channel upphase remains intact.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:37:55 AM

The OEX now tests the 15-minute 21-ema at 558.26. (Level cited earlier was in error.) Bears want to see this or 559 hold as resistance.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:33:49 AM

Currently, the OEX climbs above the 15-minute Keltner line currently at 557.07, but it hasn't had a 15-minute close above it, of course. Next resistance is trying to firm from 558.72-559.28, near the former support of the bear flag the OEX broke through yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 9:33:04 AM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.75 +1.02% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:31:30 AM

Immediate climb on the OEX toward the bear flag's former support, now at about 559, with the 15-minute 21-ema at 559.18 and still moving down.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 9:30:03 AM

Micron Technology (MU) $10.12 ... gaining 22 cents to $10.34 after posting a profit of $0.17 per share in the latest quarter. Sales rose 32% to $1.3 billion.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:28:21 AM

This week, on both the 28th and 29th, the OEX rose to test the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and then fell away yesterday from the second failed test. These averages, now at 560.60 and 561.32, might be particularly important to watch today. The 15-minute 21-ema is at 558.26.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2005 9:25:09 AM

Kos Pharmaceuticals (KOSP) $32.85 .... jumping higher to $39.05 on news that it and Barr Pharma (BRL) $47.68 are negotiating a settlement over a patent on KOSP's cholesterol drug Niaspan. The two drugmakers have been battling over Barr's bid to sell a generic or copycat form of Niaspan, which had sales of more than $300 million in 2004.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 9:22:36 AM

The GDP deflator was revised up from 2.1% to 2.3%- expectations were for no change.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 9:06:04 AM

The 30 min and 60 min cycles have ticked up on the premarket bounce, but it will take sustained strength after the open to confirm them. QQQQ has broken above the 30 and 60 min channel tops at 36.22, and the current pullback is so-far corrective, based on the keltner violation. If price doesn't fall quickly below the 7200 tick SMA at 36.09, these channel resistance levels will continue to rise, setting up QQQQ for a more substantial bounce. At current levels, QQQQ has erased all its losses from 2PM yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 9:07:49 AM

The OEX ended Tuesday between the 200-ema and the 200-sma. It had broken below the rectangular consolidation pattern that had been bounded at the bottom by that 200-ema, proving that the OEX remains in a sell-the-rallies mode. The close was below January's swing low.

That 200-sma's support is problematic for bears, however, especially since the Dow also ended the day just below its 200-ema and above its 200-sma, and the SPX ended the day above both the 200-sma , and -ema, presenting the possibility that all could bounce from these tests of their 200-sma's. The SOX and Nasdaq were no respecters of their 200-sma's, however. Nor was the NDX, as Marc pointed out earlier on the futures side of the Monitor, so perhaps the best thing to do is just to look at Keltner evidence.

The Keltner daily chart shows that the OEX ended on potential Keltner support at 554.91, but that support appears somewhat flimsy, the Keltner line still turning lower. The OEX might still attempt a bounce from it, as it did the last time it touched it Tuesday afternoon, but if so, bears should again watch for a rollover beneath the 563 level. A breakout above that resistance on a 15-minute close suggests that 570.20 or so might be tested, but both currently look stronger than support.

For a closer-in look, I noted that the OEX also ended the day on 15-, 30-, and 60-minute Keltner support, with that support at 555.05 on the 15-minute chart, and the OEX was attempting a bounce from that level. A Keltner line now at 557.08 had stopped advances all Tuesday, so bears would like to see that Keltner line's resistance hold, although other resistance exists to stop the OEX if it doesn't. These numbers are provided to help you make exit decisions if currently in a bearish play, however, with such decisions dependent on your entry, account parameters and trading style. If that particular Keltner line doesn't stop the OEX on a bounce this morning, if one should occur, Keltner lines have separated somewhat and the OEX might be able to slip higher, without a clear setup on this chart as to which Keltner line might stop it. It's not clear from this interval whether the OEX might be stopped before the 563 level that the daily chart shows as resistance, if it manages to bounce above that first resistance. Bears might want to step aside and watch if the OEX should bounce strongly above 559, the former bear flag's support, and especially if it bounces above 562.60-563.00. A bounce up to test that bear flag's support and a failure from there would be a classic type of setup.

A break much below 554.70 (60-minute chart) to 555 (15-minute chart), maintained through a 15-, 30- or 60-minute close, would set up breakdown signals on those charts, but breakdown plays might be problematic. Bears want to see quick follow-through and don't want to see a quick reversal after such a supposed breakdown. A daily close below those levels would set up a breakdown situation on the daily chart, with a downside target 528.60.

My impression has been that a push below the 200-ema likely means that the OEX might test the 200-sma at 553.62, too. Whether or not there's a bounce attempt from that average probably depends on a large degree on what's happening with other indices, particularly with the closely watched SPX and Dow either verging on or in the midst of analogous tests. If in bearish positions, follow the OEX lower with stops, but have profit-protecting plans in place for the current MA test. Those wanting new bearish positions might watch for a bounce-and-rollover entry or else an entry on a break below the 200-sma, although breakdown entries are riskier than bounce-and-rollover ones. In a climate like this, you have to be willing to be wrong and get out if you are.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 8:57:41 AM

Rising daily support on the TNX has held for the first test, with TNX rising to unchanged here at 4.591%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 8:41:50 AM

Session high for gold and silver here, +.70 at 426.80 and +.063 at 7.05 respectively. Crude oil is down a dime to 54.125.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 8:35:07 AM

Equities have edged up, ditto gold +.40 at 426.50, with bonds easing lower to a 1.5 bp gain here. QQQQ is up .24 at 36.29.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 8:32:17 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. Q4 BEFORE-TAX PROFITS LARGEST SINCE Q2 1987

8:30am U.S. Q4 BEFORE-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS RISE 13.4%

8:30am U.S. Q4 GDP UNREVISED AT 3.8%, BELOW 4.0% EXPECTED

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 8:34:13 AM

Treasuries have opened strong again today, with TNX currently trading lower by 1.7 bps at 4.574% and testing rising daily trendline support. Link GDP data due now.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 8:22:05 AM

The US Dollar Index eased off its highs yesterday but bound support at 3AM at former resistance at the 84 level: Link . Currently, June euro futures are up .12% at 1.2965, while CAD futures are down .19% at .8248. I suspect that the euro's strength derives in part from this story Link , but the gain this morning is minor.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/30/2005 7:45:08 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1172, NQ 1478.5, YM 10454 and QQQQ +.21 to 36.26. Gold is down .50 to 425.60, silver is up .04 to 7.027, ten year notes are up .1719 to 108 11/16, and crude oil is down a nickel to 54.175.

We await the Q4 final GDP and chain deflator at 8:30, est. 4.0% and 2.1% respectively.

Linda Piazza : 3/30/2005 7:39:26 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell heavily in early trading after disappointing economic news, but moderated its losses by the close. Most other Asian bourses traded lower, as do most European markets this morning. Still, our futures climbed throughout most of the overnight session, now, as of 7:00 EST, just off their highs reached near the European open. As of 7:00 EST, gold was at $428.70, and crude was at $54.96, with OPEC ending talks Tuesday on an immediate raise in production, saying that such a production increase might instead occur during the summer. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Japan's February Industrial Production fell a seasonally adjusted 2.1%, much deeper than the expected 1.1-1.2% drop. Machinery and electronic parts comprised the biggest drops, and the decline in industrial production hit steel-related issues on Wednesday. The Japanese ministry calculated that March and April's numbers would rise, but by mid-morning, the Nikkei had dropped more than 90 points. The Nikkei climbed off that low of the day, and saw a burst of buying at the close. It closed lower by 33.94 points or 0.29%, at 11,565.88, with Nippon Steel and Mizuho Financial Group both dropping more than 3%.

Most other Asian markets declined. This week, both South Korea and Singapore had already released industrial production numbers that showed declines. The Taiwan Weighted traded a modest 0.05% lower, but South Korea's Kospi fell 0.37%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.21%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng was one of only two Asian bourses to gain, climbing 0.10%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.88% and is now at multi-year lows again. Overnight, the government warned of a bubble in housing prices, saying that such a bubble was a threat to economic stability. The government said that local councils should take steps to cap gains in housing prices.

Most European markets decline, too. In the U.K., the March CBI Distributive Trades Survey proved weaker than expected, with the headlines sales balance falling from February's +2 to a -9 figure. The expectations balance fell from February's +14 to +3. Orders volume fell from -1 to -12. The weak number suggested to some that the Bank of England's rate hikes were having an effect on consumer spending, and that next week's meeting might not result in another rate hike. Ex-dividend moves also hurt U.K. bourses, as did Emap's revelation that the environment in advertising is tough, especially in the French division. Across Europe, OPEC's decision not to immediately rate production hit airline stocks. In stock-specific news, another M&A action involved an Italian bank this week, with ABN Amro announcing its bid amount for the rest of Banca Antonveneta that it doesn't already own, and with ABN Amro falling sharply as a result. ABN Amro also said that Q1 operating profit will come in below the last-year level. In other stock-specific news, French utility Suez divested itself of all its shares of Dutch-Belgian bank Fortis. Alcatel fell after an earnings report.

As of 7:27 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 24.10 points or 0.49%, to 4,894.90. The CAC 40 had fallen 15.35 points or 0.38%, to 4,066.30. The DAX had dropped 20.49 points or 0.47%, to 4,331.40.

Market Monitor Archives