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Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:42:14 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:52:21 PM

Good Gravy! I thought it might be a good day for corporates, but ... Eaton Vance Ltd. Durations (EVV) $18.08 +2.43%. Bugger closed almost smack in the middle of that $18.03-$18.17 "yellow zone" didn't it. The reason I say "good gravy" is I tend to think of the EVV as roughly equivalent to the LQD $109.59 +0.34% (but with shorter-dated maturities) in the Balanced Benchmark. You wouldn't think today's action was short covering either. According to NASDAQ, EVV short interest was just 9,720 shares on 03/15/05, down from 02/15/05 short interest of 180,111. "Get'r done!"

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 10:42:46 PM

June Crude (cl04m) $56.61 +0.33% (30-min. delayed) ... was talking to a trading buddy of mine on the phone. I can't say that Goldman's call was "front run" by traders, but suspicious nonetheless. No volume in the June contract late yesterday, which if anything, suggests "no sellers." Maybe Goldman's traders just smiled yesterday afternoon and tucked their hands under their armpits (Nah.... I aint got no oil for sale). Floor trade this morning opens right above WEEKLY Pivot ... now that's suspicious. Link Here's a Reuters article regarding Goldman's thoughts/analysis Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 10:06:18 PM

I don't know who wrote this evening's Market Wrap, but it was a beauty. Oh! It was Jane Fox. Very good.

OI Technical Staff : 3/31/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 8:51:02 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) daily interval bar chart with updated/new MONTHLY Pivot Retracement at this Link Note: Several of the "yellow" zones are nearly identical to those shown in recent charts with different WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivot levels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 8:25:04 PM

First Quarter Volumes ... for Q1 2005 the NYSE averaged roughly 1.628 billion shares per day. This is up from the same quarter 2004 where volumes averaged 1.490 billion shares per day. NASDAQ volume for Q1 2005 averaged roughly 1.978 billion shares per day. Nearly identical to the 1.975 billion shares per day in Q1 of 2004.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 8:10:33 PM

Sector Bell Curve bullish % that traders/investors can use in combination with OEX info at 08:06:24. Comparison at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 7:30:15 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 6:36:00 PM

Altair Nanothech (ALTI) $3.57 -8.22% .... falls to $3.50 on "lightning round." Cramer doesn't like it.

I do ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 6:17:58 PM

I think both were "financials." AIG and C.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 6:16:27 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) ... 03/31/05 benchmarking of top 50 weighted stocks in this market cap-weighted index. Do you see the two (2) swing stocks that likely provided the difference between + and -? Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 6:31:54 PM

James Cramer noting you can't borrow a share of GM Link . A couple of weeks ago I alerted traders I couldn't find a share of ELN Link to short for day trading. (As you may know, I do NOT carry any biotechnology short positions overnight unless HEDGED with a call option)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 8:06:24 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) fell 2.33% in the first quarter of 2005. Here are the top 50 Q1 performers (P/L %) from their 12/31/04 close Link and the bottom 50 Q1 permormers (P/L %) from their 12/31/04 close Link Note: Those symbols with "**" denote the stock is also a component of the Dow Industrials. Caterpillar (CAT) is not an OEX component. Here is a sector bullish % bell curve from Dorsey/Wright and Associates with 12/31/04-03/31/05 comparison. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 5:29:12 PM

Balanced Benchmark Fund at this Link from 12/30/2004 rebalance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 5:08:43 PM

Hmmmm.... NYSE-listed Corning (GLW) $11.13 +3.05% Link , Cendant (CD) $20.54 +0.04% Link and newly added Maverick Tube (MVK) $32.51 +1.4% Link (see NYSE NH/NL observations)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 4:59:01 PM

Closing Internals at this Link Note: At today's close, the NYSE NH/NL 5-day ratio finds a 3-box reversal higher NYSE NH/NL ratio chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 4:40:04 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... Swing trade long 1/2 bullish position in shares of Maverick Tube (MVK) at the offer of $32.82. Swing trade long 1/2 bullish position in shares of CMGI Inc. (CMGI) at the offer of $2.07.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 4:03:32 PM

Sell Program Premium .... DIA $104.89, SPY $117.93

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 4:00:02 PM

No doji for the OEX today, but still a small-bodied candle that's a near doji.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 3:50:17 PM

The OEX's H&S formation on its 15-minute chart is somewhat oddly formed, so that I'm not sure whether it's been confirmed or not. The sharp drop this 15-minute period suggests that it has, but there's Keltner and 15-minute 100/130-ema support just below the current OEX position, too, so that I wouldn't yet consider it confirmed. Remember that all of this is going on within a broadening formation, where trading patterns are just whacky.

I wondered this morning in my first OEX-related post if this rally business was going to all fall apart tomorrow or even this afternoon. The OEX certainly hasn't fallen apart, yet, but I think it's important not to form too many bullish conclusions, either, as we complete this last trading day of the quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 3:42:03 PM

Bond market action a little too bullish into tomorrow's nonfarm.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 3:41:39 PM

The OEX has turned down again toward that mid-channel Keltner support that has prompted bounces all day. The support looks a little less firm than earlier, although it yet again might be strong enough for at least a tepid bounce, that might be beginning as I type. This view is complicated by a possible H&S shape on that chart, not quite confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 3:41:04 PM

Closing out personal day trade short in the QQQQ $36.55 here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 3:26:42 PM

Most Actives .... ELN $3.25 -53.29%, QQQQ $36.65 -0.24%, SPY $118.31 +0.11%, MSFT $24.26 +0.41%, JDSU $1.68 +5%, MCIP $24.95 +2.04%, BIIB $34.76 -9.33%, INTC $23.25 -1.02%, CSCO $17.92 -0.61%, Q $3.63 -3.71%

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 3:26:36 PM

The OEX is bouncing from the first Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, with that support currently at 562.78. So far, it still hasn't broken out of the broadening formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 3:20:04 PM

I need to step away in a few minutes for the remainder of the session.

The daily cycle picture puts a bullish edge on the day's indecisive doji noted by Linda. The failure of the 30 min and 60 min cycle bulls to retrace yesterday's gain is what permitted the slower Macd to confirm yesterday's stochastic buy signal, and the daily candle maded it to a higher high and has so far printed a higher low from yesterday. QQQQ should remain bullish on a daily cycle basis above today's low.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 3:15:54 PM

A doji on the top of a tall white candle: Is that what we're going to get today on the OEX? It's important to remember, however, that this formation is occurring in a consolidation pattern--a broadening formation--and not at the top of a prolonged climb. It's not a positive sign, but perhaps doesn't have the same significance that it would have if it came at the top of a climb. That doji signifies indecision, and who isn't undecided as to what will happen next?

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 3:13:48 PM

Light volume for QQQQ here, with price stalled just above the 7200 tick SMA, and for the entire day, with 73.6M shares traded so far, 25M shares away from the average daily volume and 42M shares away from yesterday's volume.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 3:04:35 PM

The OEX hesitates at the double-top area, also under the top resistance of the broadening formation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 3:02:36 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 3:01:40 PM

7200 tick SMA support is at 36.60 currently, pointed higher along with the 30 and 60 min cycle channels. The short cycle indicators are overbought, but given the 30, 60 min and daily cycles favoring upside, there's a better-than-average likelihood of an upside trending move for the short cycle.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:58:53 PM

TRIN 1.08 +89.47% ... just tested 1.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:58:15 PM

QQQQ $36.66 -0.21% .... tentative at WEEKLY R1 .... for now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:56:18 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.19 -0.14% ... just off its morning high of $105.32.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:55:34 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.87 +1.60% ... highs of session here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:55:09 PM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.97 +1.81% ... highs of session here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:54:07 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) darts to low of session. Down 6.8 bp at 44.90, or 4.90%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:47:52 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert .... taking 1/2 bullish position in shares of CMGI (CMGI) $2.07 -3.27% here, stop $1.95, target $2.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 2:47:28 PM

QQQQ breaks north of 36.66 confluence, which should now act as support witht eh 30 min cycle channel pointing north. The 30 min downphase ended early, confirming the daily cycle upphase. On the daily chart, the Macd has joined the 10-day stochastic on a bullish cross.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 2:46:48 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 3:49:17 PM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $15.88 +2.38% Link ... busting a move. When will JP Morgan come with their upgrade?

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 2:42:38 PM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner cnannel shows resistance at 563.77, near the HOD. The top of the broadening formation on the 60-minute chart is at about 564.75, depending on the version of the trendline you prefer.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:42:32 PM

Starwood Hotels (HOT) $60.00 +0.10% ... NASDAQ reports short interest of 5,015,385 with days to cover at 3.31. Up from the 02/15/05 short interest of 4,371,463 and days to cover of 2.57.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:40:32 PM

Starwood Hotels (HOT) $60.00 +0.10% ... could get some short squeeze action on failed h/s top pattern. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 2:39:19 PM

Session high for ten year treasury futures at 109 1/4, TNX -6.2 bps at 4.496%, a 1.36% decline for the day. Crude oil is up 1.40 at 55.40, 60 cents off its intraday high.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 2:33:43 PM

QQQQ tests 36.66 resistance here, unbroken since 10AM: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:30:31 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 5.6 bp at 4.502%. Mid-session yield high of 45.24, or 4.524 came juuuuust above DAILY S2, but got gobbled up by bond bulls.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 2:29:16 PM

No weakness for the CRB here, +4.12 at 315.14, led to the upside by natural gas, crude oil, heating oil and cocoa futures.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:28:32 PM

Pacholder High YIELD (PHF) $8.85 +1.37% ... session low has been firm at $8.75.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 2:28:26 PM

For reference again, the OEX's daily 21/100/130-ema's are at 566.50, 565.11 and 562.74, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 2:27:16 PM

The OEX has now broken out of its triangle formation to the upside. Bulls don't want to see a quick reversal. The OEX remains within its broadening formation, however, and trading patterns are squirrelly within it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:28:00 PM

QQQQ $36.62 -0.27% ... not a bank in the bunch. BIX.X 352.33 +0.23% back test its WEEKLY R1. QQQQ day trade bear needs to be al_rt here. Feel some pressure building.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 2:25:32 PM

50 tick 2-day chart of crude oil approaching the 2:30 close: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 2:20:48 PM

No weakness for bonds whatsoever, with ZN futures holding a tick off the highs at 109 3/16, TNX down 5.5 bps at 4.503% here, a 1.21% decline today. Note the confirming Macd bearish cross on the daily chart to accompany the trendline break: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 2:20:25 PM

If that was a bear flag that had been visible on the OEX's three-minute chart, the OEX broke below it and then immediately bounce again--that stop-running move I mentioned as possible. Now the OEX has pushed to the top of that flag and tests that, and it doesn't so far look any more successful at pushing out of that coil to the upside. The 15-minute Keltner chart shows light resistance at 563.06 and then again, somewhat stronger, at 563.70. Support is still firm enough for some type of bounce near 561.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 2:16:21 PM

Back to find QQQQ bouncing off 7200 tick SMA support, bad news for the 30 min cycle downphase and just what daily cycle bulls want to see. 36.65 is resistance that held from 10AM onward, and represents the first goal for 30 min cycle bulls: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 2:12:49 PM

The TRAN may be beginning to make its way down toward a test of 3700.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:11:55 PM

QQQQ $36.56 -0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:11:35 PM

Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 612.49 -0.39% ... moves to low of session here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 2:06:29 PM

QQQQ $36.58 -0.40% ... here's 30-minute chart with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels. Also pointing to EBAY, AAPL, SBUX observations of where they trade withing their own WEEKLY Pivot levels. Mixed feel, but highly computerized .... Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 1:53:15 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.01 -0.31% ... Stock Trader's Almanac notes last day of March, Dow down 8 of last 10, with average decline -0.7%. First day of April has Dow up 8 of last 10.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 1:50:31 PM

The BIX is holding above 350, but that's sure not a pretty daily candle so far.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 1:48:49 PM

We're approaching the stop-running time of day, so there's always the chance that we'll see a throw-over type of move, soon reversed. Not all stop runs are reversed, of course. The purpose of those movements is to test whether support or resistance is going to hold (well, if you're a generous kind of person, you think that's the purpose), so if it does, the movement continues in the direction it began. It's just a testing time of day, though, so be aware of what's happening.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 1:45:56 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 1:44:52 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.51 -1.15% ... right on the WEEKLY Pivot here. Week's range has been WS1-WR1.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 1:43:13 PM

QQQQ update at this Link , failing below 36.60 but holding the 7200 tick SMA as the 30 min cycle downphase begins to flatten. This would be an early abort to the 30 min cycle downphase if it reverses from here, confirming the upturn in the daily cycle.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 1:40:29 PM

Like the advdec line, the OEX just coils today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 1:39:53 PM

Maverick Tube (MVK) 30-minute interval chart at this Link ... little pennant forming.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 1:34:44 PM

Crude oil is holding its gains, +1.6 at 55.60 here. 2-day 50-tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 1:33:49 PM

The OEX breakout isn't holding.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 1:32:57 PM

The OEX bounced from the support of the potential bear flag on the three-minute chart, and it's bouncing hard enough that it throws the "bear flag" conclusion into some doubt. After hovering near nearest resistance on the 15-minute chart, this bounce brings the OEX above it, where resistance softens somewhat. Next resistance is at 562.96 and then at 563.68 on this chart, with this zone known to be historical S/R, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 1:32:29 PM

QQQQ breaks sharply above the descending trendline here, testing upper descending 30 min channel resistance at 36.62: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 1:23:39 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) screen capture of 30-minute interval chart with QCharts' WEEKLY PIvot levels as well as Level II. SIZE is an anonymous market maker, where buyer/seller can keep his/her identity "secret." CINN is regional, AMEX is regional, ARCX is an ECN where a lot of orders are routed, SCHB is the Schwab institutional desk, ETRD is *e-trade, BOFA is Banc of America ... Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 1:23:39 PM

The OEX could be forming a small bear flag on the three-minute chart. If that's what it is, the support is about to be tested, with that support at about 561.85.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 1:12:13 PM

Still watching the advdec line for clues. It's not giving many, coiling since the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 1:08:14 PM

QQQQ backs away from the descending trendline overlapping the 7200 tick SMA: Link . Crude oil is up to 55.675 now, +3.10%, while ten year treasuries are hovering near their intraday highs, TNX currently -4.8 bps at 4.51%: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 1:07:40 PM

Darned it if BRUT isn't in there at $41.69 x $41.71. (quick glance just for a note)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 1:05:01 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $41.70 -2.57% ... just had its first 30-minute interval chart close below WEEKLY S1 ($41.72) this week.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 1:02:51 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 1:02:28 PM

The OEX still moves up from its bounce off the 561-ish Keltner support. It's just-completed 15-minute candle closed right on the next Keltner resistance, leaving some doubt as to whether the OEX can move above that resistance or not. The OEX is currently at 562.24, with that Keltner resistance at 562.19, just below.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 12:58:12 PM

Sharp bounce from QQQQ here of the 36.44 low, testing 7200 tick SMA resistance and the declining intraday trendline with the short cycle oscillators oversold and trying to turn up. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 12:56:15 PM

Hmmmm... speaking of Mr. Cramer .... see 03/22/05 post at 06:35:05 PM Link . Yesterday's high in the DIA was .... $105.41. Pretty close eh? ("eh" is Canadian for Huh?)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 12:45:44 PM

eBay (EBAY) who's BRUT? Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 12:41:39 PM

QQQQ $36.44 -0.68% ... still yet to trade correlative DAILY S1 and WEEKLY Pivot. EBAY right here at $37.17 with BRUT looking neutral.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 12:37:29 PM

The TRAN's 15-minute Keltner chart looks different than the OEX's. On that chart, resistance looks stronger than support, with the TRAN looking likely to eventually test 3700 if not lower. There's a possibility that the TRAN will bounce first, but resistance near 3718 or higher, near 3725-3730, looks as if it could stop it. The TRAN has a potential H&S, either on the verge of being confirmed if you consider it having formed a stunted right shoulder, or still needing a right shoulder if you consider that just part of the head formation. The TRAN can and does reject H&S formations, but this isn't building any sense of strength in this index, and, by extension, some of the others. This is especially true with the BIX having been slapped back from its HOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 12:37:02 PM

Updated 100 tick QQQQ chart with intraday trendlines at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 12:33:47 PM

The OEX bounce from just above 561 has been tepid so far, threatening not to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 12:32:57 PM

Starbucks (SBUX) $51.72 -2.06% ... trades WEEKLY Pivot here. (world's most expensive cup of coffee or gas in your tank? Synthetic leases?)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 12:31:21 PM

eBay (EBAY) $37.16 -1.40% .... did anyone listen to James Cramer last night discussing "end of quarter mark up" and hinting SEC should be on the alert?

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 12:30:31 PM

The OEX is still jammed underneath the daily 21/100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 12:30:00 PM

Whatever it was I saw, Mark, it's about the only thing I can see clearly today. (See Mark's 12:22 post.) I think broadening formations have a well-earned reputation as being difficult to trade, with all kinds of crazy action going on as they move outward and broaden more.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 12:26:56 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle downphase is roughly half-way down its range, and the 60 min cycle is in gear to the downside, making this prime-time for bears. QQQQ needs to stay south of the 7200 tick SMA at 36.55, and preferably (for bears) get some momentum going to the downside. Despite the lower intraday highs and lows, this decline is much choppier than yesterday's bounce that preceded it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 12:24:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Mark Davis : 3/31/2005 12:22:57 PM

Linda you win the toaster oven. You saw it before I did.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 12:20:09 PM

The OEX now tests the 561-ish support that has continued to look strong on the 15-minute Keltenr chart. It will be the bounce from this level, if there is one, that tells us about strength or weakness. Bulls will want to see a quick move and 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 562.27 and preferably above 563.74. Bears want to see a bounce quickly fail.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 12:17:07 PM

The BIX drops further, now at their low of the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 12:16:53 PM

Session lows in the futures despite the uptick in bonds, with TNX down 5 bps to 4.508% here. QQQQ is retesting the 36.49 lows as I type. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 12:16:32 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 12:06:48 PM

The BIX pushed up to a 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 3/07 high, but was slapped back sharply. That's not a great sign, either, but the BIX has been showing tentative price/CCI bullish divergence on the daily chart. No price/MACD divergence, however. The lower low this month was accompanied by a lower MACD low, too.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 12:05:03 PM

So far, the OEX is producing a doji right along the daily 130-ema. Bulls do not want to see the OEX end the day with that doji after yesterday's tall white candle, but the day is far from over.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 12:04:39 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:58:43 AM

Swing trade long alert for 1/2 bullish position in shares of Maverick Tube (MVK) $32.83 +2.40% Link here, stop $29.00, target $43.00.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 11:53:17 AM

The OEX is falling far enough that it threatens to invalidate the potential inverse H&S on the three-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 11:52:56 AM

Ten year treasuries are weakening here, with ZN down to a .3438 gain at 109 3/32 and TNX -3.8 bps at 4.52%. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 11:41:30 AM

Crude oil is up 2.41% to 55.30 here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:41:13 AM

Bullish add to position setup alert for Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $3.55 -8.74% ... will look to add another 200 shares should ALTI trade $3.36. Stop $2.60.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 11:39:53 AM

The RLX is above 430 again, pressing toward the high of the day, but also toward likely resistance at about 434.35-434.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 11:37:47 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link easing back from 36.66 resistance. This rangebound action resolves itself against the bears because it's taking place during the 30 min cycle downphase. There should still remain a few hours left of the downphase, but the choppy drift lower isn't going to be sufficient to overcome the buy signal in the daily cycle stochastic from yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 11:35:56 AM

Not much movement either direction as the OEX seems stuck between support and resistance. I dialed down to a three-minute nested Keltenr chart to give some insight, but the Keltner lines there don't give much, either. When movements tighten, it's sometimes helpful, but just isn't today. There is a rough inverse H&S visible on that chart, however, not yet confirmed. It looks as if there was an attempt to confirm it a few minutes ago, but the OEX fell back again.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:31:51 AM

Whack! 3,800 at the offer of $17.92.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:31:22 AM

Eaton Vance Ltd Duration (EVV) $17.87 +1.24% ... bidder in Chicago comes up at $17.90.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:27:32 AM

NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2001.32 -0.21% ... a 2000 pin at end of Q1.

Tab Gilles : 3/31/2005 11:27:03 AM

EUR/USD UP Link

$GOX & GLD UP Link Link

USD 60 minute Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:25:09 AM

June Crude Oil (cl04m) $56.15 +2.48% ... with thought/analysis regarding this morning's CNBC interview with pit trader. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 11:21:48 AM

QQQQ clears its descending 7200 tick SMA resistance at 36.58, extending the bounce from the 36.49 low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:19:45 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.11 -0.21% ... above its 03/22/05 FOMC close of $104.53.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:18:39 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.87 +1.60% ... matches its 03/22/05 FOMC close here.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 11:16:49 AM

Next resistance, as pointed out by the OEX's 15-minute nested Keltner chart, is at 563.61. This looks a bit firmer than it did this morning when tested.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:14:53 AM

QQQQ $36.57 -0.43% .... comes back to DAILY Pivot. Watch those corporates! Hunger for yield and some confidence toward economy being shown. What's Goldman Sachs thinking about economy if they see oil at $100? Strong demand is my thought.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:13:23 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/31/2005 11:10:20 AM

$FVX & $TNX DOWN Link Link

Thus, EVV & PHF are up as Jeff pointed out. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:04:13 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 11:03:00 AM

The RLX was not able to maintain its HOD above 430, but it's hovering just below that, at 429.92 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 11:01:31 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with QQQQ now bouncing a few cents from the 36.492 low. 30 min channel support has dropped to 36.45, and the 60 min channel is finally starting to tick down. It's still a weak 30 min cycle downphase, and bears need to see some selling below 36.50 to challenge that bullish corrective interpretation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 11:01:05 AM

Will be looking to cover a day trade short in personal account from early morning in QQQQ $36.53 -0.54% on a dip back to DAILY S1.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 11:00:17 AM

One source is calling the headline Chicago PMI number not credible, despite some anecdotal signs of strength.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 10:57:45 AM

The OEX perhaps heads down toward the 561 level that the 15-minute Keltner chart marks as firm support, for now. If it does head down to that support and does bounce from it, bulls will want to quickly see 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 562.31 or there's a risk of a H&S forming.

Tab Gilles : 3/31/2005 10:50:21 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Bouncing off of Fib Retracement and yesterdays long legged doji followed by a gap up today testing 10-ema. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 10:48:53 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 10:50:51 AM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.92 +1.52% ... gets trade at DAILY R1. 10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 4.3 bp at 4.514% and just below its DAILY S2. (note: benchmark bond's yield is right back at recent FOMC announcement level) Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.85 +1.37% ... juuuust above its DAILY R2 of $8.83, but really either side.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 10:43:29 AM

On the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, support near 561 still looks firm.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 10:45:21 AM

Crude oil is holding at 55.20 currently. Headlines:

10:40am APRIL HEATING OIL HITS AT A RECORD $1.638 A GALLON

10:41am APRIL GASOLINE AT A RECORD $1.62 A GALLON

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 10:37:54 AM

The US Dollar Index broke south of 84 support this morning, but has bounced back to retest the overnight confluence resistance to 84.15. Daily chart at this Link , with a refreshable intraday chart at this Link .

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 10:33:23 AM

Most actives ... ELN $3.08 -55.87%, QQQQ $36.63 -0.27%, SPY $118.15 -0.02%, BIIB $34.20 -10.79%, MSFT $24.21 +0.2%, JDSU $1.61 +0.62%, CSCO $18.00 -0.16%, INTC $23.32 -0.72%, SYMC $21.45 -1.69%, SIRI $5.57 -1.76%, SMH $32.63 -0.79%.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 10:32:55 AM

An OEX daily chart showing some of what's happening now: Link

Jane Fox : 3/31/2005 10:30:44 AM

Dateline WSJ In a scathing report, a presidential commission said Thursday that America's spy agencies were "dead wrong" in most of their judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction before the war and that the U.S. knows "disturbingly little" about the threats posed by many of the nation's most dangerous adversaries.

The commission called for dramatic change to prevent future failures. It outlined 74 recommendations and said President Bush could implement most of them without action by Congress. It urged Mr. Bush to give broader powers to John Negroponte, the new director of national intelligence, to deal with challenges to his authority from the CIA, Defense Department or other elements of the nation's 15 spy agencies.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 10:29:17 AM

QQQQ bounced from a low of 36.53, currently back to 36.62 with the 7200 tick SMA pulling lower to 36.66. 30 and 60 min channel support are lined up at the low of the day, and the 30 min cycle downphase is starting to look corrective above the 36.50 level. If so, then this would be a bullish confirmation of the daily cycle upphase that printed its stochastic buy signal on yesterday's rally.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 10:28:33 AM

Nara Bancorp (NARA) $14.77 -14.37% ... percentage loser at the NASDAQ after the bank holding company said it will restate 2002 earnings. Late yesterday, company said it discovered it had paid its former president and CEO $600,000.00 reimbursement for automobile and country club expenses, which was not properly accounted for.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 10:23:12 AM

Gold and silver have eased off their highs, XAU and HUI down to a .59% gain at 93.78 and +.75% at 200.65 respectively. Oil remains firm, +2.36% at 55.275, while CAD and EUR futures have pulled back to .8267 and 1.2987 respectively. The CRB is strong today, up 1.41 at 312.43, led by cocoa, crude oil and sugar futures.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 10:20:07 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 10:20:22 AM

I'm looking at the OEX's 15-minute chart, and that support near 561 looks firm. That doesn't mean that the OEX will head up all day, but it might mean that we'll see at least some kind of bounce from that level or even from slightly above it since it looks so firm. Unless the behavior of the advdec line improves, I sure wouldn't feel good about buying that bounce yet, especially not since it would be buying a bounce inside and near the top of the broadening formation. If the advdec line really keels over, we could even see a strong thrust down pierce that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 10:17:20 AM

Advdec line rolling over, slightly below yesterday's LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 10:13:35 AM

QQQQ 100-tick update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 10:12:51 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 10:12:47 AM

Here's the broadening formation I wanted to show you earlier: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 10:11:14 AM

The evening-star formation on the OEX's 15-minute chart looks like a distinct possibility now, without a strong bounce during the last third of that period. The OEX does approach next 15-minute support at 562.36, so a bounce is possible. Without that bounce, the OEX will not only have completed the evening-star pattern, but it will also have erased this morning's tentative breakout signal on this 15-minute chart. Stronger support is near 561.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 10:05:58 AM

The Fed has announced a 4-day 4.5B repo for a net drain of 750M. However, the door is still open for an overnight repo to supplement these longer-term repos- the latest announcement I've seen has been 10:30AM, and I'll continue to watch for further activity.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 10:05:48 AM

The OEX perches on the breakout demarcation on the 15-minute nested Keltner chart. The decline is somewhat troublesome after the last 15-minute period's doji, but we saw several of these tentative almost-evening-star formations quickly reverse higher yesterday, so this is just a sign for bulls to be cautious and aware. The OEX has not broken out of its broadening formation, by my estimation. I'll tell you the truth: once you recognize a broadening formation in the works, it behooves all but the most adept scalpers with money to burn to just stay out until there's a clear break one direction or the other. The trading pattern gets weirder and weirder the further into one that prices move.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 10:04:44 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 10:04:08 AM

Session high for crude oil here at 55.25, with ten year treasuries lower, TNX up to a 4.3 bp loss at 4.515%. QQQQ is holding at 36.66, trading both sides of the 7200 tick SMA. The 30 min cycle bias is down, but it's taking its sweet time getting in gear. Bears need to see a break of 36.50 support.

Tab Gilles : 3/31/2005 10:01:58 AM

$SOX.X I ran both the Keltner Channel and Bollinger Bands and my interpetation. The upper and lower bands are considered as extremes of the price movement and are a warning that price exhaustion may be occurring. Buy signals occur when the price is below the lower band and sell signal occur when price exceeds the upper band. Using the MACD, RSI and CCI for oversold and overbought levels. My only concern currently, and Linda brought this up the other day. Is that we may see the same formation occur as it did back in January. I would say that one could take a position here on the semi's and add if it does form a bullish divergence. Bascially as not to miss out on any move. Also if there's a break over 420 resistance one could add there also. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 10:01:09 AM

Help wanted index 41 vs. 41 exp.

Factory orders +.2% vs. .5% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 9:59:50 AM

Headline:

9:58am MARCH CHICAGO PMI AT 69.2% VS. 60.4% FORECAST

Tab Gilles : 3/31/2005 9:56:43 AM

Just reported Terri Schiavo has just passed away.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 9:56:33 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart currently shows: The OEX broke out above a channel marked by a top boundary currently at 563.15. Since breaking out, the OEX pauses just above that channel line. Support is at that channel line, at 562.25, and much stronger at 560.70-561.13. Bulls would rather not see the OEX pull back all the way to that much stronger support, however, because doing so would erase the breakout signal. If the breakout signal is maintain, the channels set a tentative upside target of 567.01. This was known historical S/R. As of this writing, however, the OEX was retreating back toward that channel line, so it's uncertain whether the breakout signal will be maintained.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 9:55:04 AM

VIX.X 13.70 ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 13.27, 13.49, Piv = 13.90, 14.12, 14.53.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 9:51:52 AM

My broadband connection is currently too slow to allow me to upload charts, but one version of the upper trendline (best fit) that defines the broadening formation at the bottom of the OEX's decline, 60-minute chart, shows that upper trendline currently at about 564.25. The OEX is testing/about to test that trendline.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 9:50:57 AM

Gold and silver are holding their gains, April gold at a session high of 428.50 here, with HUI +1.75% at 202.63 and XAU +1.5% at 94.62.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 9:50:16 AM

Help-wanted index, factory orders and Chicago PMI due in 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 9:47:46 AM

RLX at 431.66.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 9:47:24 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 9:46:43 AM

Just got an al_rt I'd set here on the RLX. It's pushing above 430, out of its recent consolidation pattern, but will then soon slam into resistance in the form of its descending, converging 30- and 50-sma's, both near 434.30-434.50. The RLX is at 430.65, and I've noted a lot of congruence with the behavior of the non-tech indices and the RLX. We've got the initial upside break, which needs to be maintained, but then the important test coming up. Since late December, the RLX has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, and is far from having broken out of that pattern yet, but we do need to see corroborating strength in the RLX to help us feel good about any short-term bounce potential in the OEX, I think.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 9:45:55 AM

Party City (PCTY) $15.91 +20.07% ... company saying it has been approached about potential merger. CEO Nancy Pedot resigned.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 9:42:46 AM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.78 +0.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 9:42:11 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.87 +1.60% ... could be a strong day for corporates.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 9:41:37 AM

Keene, sorry it's taken me so long to reply to your comment about the OEX's broadening formation, but I'm working from out of town and having difficulty with connectivity issues. The wireless connection here is down, and I'm working off someone's unsecured wireless connection (why would people leave these unsecured?) with a whopping speed of 1.0 Mbps. I'm doing dances here trying to get any charts to pull up at all, waiting for the connection to be re-established where I am.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 9:40:24 AM

QQQQ is back below 7200 tick SMA support, but the 30 min channel has yet to turn down. The 30 min cycle downphase should kick off during the next 10minutes if price holds below 36.70. A break below 36.50 will be required to confirm it.

Tab Gilles : 3/31/2005 9:38:52 AM

Oil spiking today in this comment by Goldman Sachs. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 9:37:25 AM

The OEX opens near its close, jammed under the daily 21/100/130-ema's, with those averages at 566.50, 565.11, and 562.70, respectively. The OEX has been testing these averages at the top of its range for a week now, and the test could continue today. As I said earlier in the week, the (until-yesterday) drops back after testing these averages proves their importance as resistance but we have known 200-ema and 200-sma below as support, too, and it's difficult to judge the strength of one against the other. The recent consolidation pattern corroborates the difficulties others are having with the same judgments. A break above that 21-ema or at least the 100-ema might be needed to signal something more than ongoing consolidation.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 9:36:59 AM

The Fed has 13.25B in expiring repos, and has so far added 8B via 14-day repo, leaving 5.25B with which to deal at the 10AM announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 9:37:07 AM

Western Digital (WDC) $12.56 +12.44% ... raising Q3 outlook and now expects to earn between $0.29-$0.31 per share for the 3-months ended April 1, substantially higher than its January forecast for profit of $0.16-$0.19 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 9:32:19 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) sharply lower and down 5.8 bp at 4.500%.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 9:29:32 AM

Updated daily TNX chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 9:28:02 AM

Session high for ZN bonds here, with TNX -5.9 bps at 4.496%, a 1.27% decline today.

Keene Little : 3/31/2005 9:27:11 AM

Linda, speaking of broadening formations at the top of a move, how's this one on OEX's 10-min chart? Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2005 9:27:43 AM

Elan Corp. (ELN) $6.98 ... plunges to $3.00 and is this morning's pre-market most active after it and Biogen/Idec (BIIB) $38.35, which is also lower at $34.57 and #2 on this morning's most active list, confirmed that a third patient taking their suspended drug Tysabri had contracted a rare neurological disease.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 9:19:43 AM

If we have a negative opening and turn down from there, that may well renew the possibility that yesterday's OEX bullish engulfing candle (not classic, but nearly) was just part of a broadening formation. I've mentioned before that as broadening formations move further out, prices tend to zoom in a volatile manner from one side of the formation to the other. Broadening formations aren't as common after declines as they are as topping formations, but they do form at bottoms. Question is: which way will it break? I've read contradictory information. I know and you know already that they're a sign of emotion-based trading and instability. I've read, however, that they can be bottoming formations. For now, bears should probably take that bullish engulfing candle at face value, until proven that they should do otherwise, but bulls should remain wary, too, of the possibility of a tall red candle that zooms to the other side of the broadening formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 9:12:01 AM

The bloom is off equities, with QQQQ back to a 3 cent gain at 36.76 and the futures going flat/negative. However, TNX is still down 4.4 bps at 4.514%, a .97% decline. While the 30 min cycle continues to call for a deeper correction in equities, the persistent strength in bonds does not look bearish for equities.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 9:03:26 AM

Before continuing this post, I want to note that I'm troubled by the failure of U.S. futures to build on overnight gains in global bourses. As Keene said earlier, in different words, something is rotten in Denmark. Perhaps it was just hesitancy ahead of this morning's numbers, but I'd be watchful if in bullish positions. The rest of this post was prepared yesterday after the close, but that overnight action should temper those other observations.

Yesterday, the OEX very nearly completed a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, suggesting that it might indeed rise for several days or even a couple of weeks into the right shoulder level for its potential H&S on the daily chart. This has been a possibility all week, but no chart characteristics supported such a possibility until yesterday. With such a bounce possibly being a countertrend, tricky-to-trade move that will shortly be followed by more consolidation at the right-shoulder level, even if the OEX is to eventually reject the formation, trade on the bullish side with care. If inclined to trade a possibly countertrend move, look for the best pullback entries possible. Pullbacks to and bounces from the 15-minute 21/100/130-ema's might be one entry to consider, but make sure there is a bounce and that internals support your play. Those averages are currently at 561.02, 560.68, and 561.14, respective. Be willing to be wrong and jump out of a play if necessary.

All this potential short-term bullishness is tempered by the worry that we might be seeing some end-of-quarter and end-of-month shortcovering. from high levels of short positions. The whole shebang might fall apart tomorrow. Or even this afternoon.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 8:51:46 AM

May crude has just broken 55, +1.94% at 55.05 off a high of 55.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 8:37:58 AM

Euro and CAD futures are also spiking, CAD +.54% at .8268, a session high, with euros back above 1.3, +.46% at 1.302 currently. Crude oil is also up big, +1.53% at 54.825 for the May contract.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 8:33:25 AM

Big move higher in bonds, TNX down 4.4 bps to 4.514%, ZN up to 109 5/32. QQQQ is up .11 to 36.84, NQ trading 1502.5 and just off its session high of 1503 and QQQQ 36.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 8:32:07 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 66,000 TO 2.6 MLN

8:30am U.S. 4-WK. AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 8,500 TO 336,000

8:30am U.S. FEB. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.2%, 1.6% Y-O-Y

8:30am U.S. FEB. PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.3%, UP 2.3% Y-O-Y

8:30am U.S. FEB. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.3% VS 0.4% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. FEB. CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.5% VS 0.6% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 20,000 TO 350,000

Jonathan Levinson : 3/31/2005 7:44:40 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1186, NQ 1500, YM 10564 and QQQQ +.04 at 36.77. Gold is up .80 to 427.70, silver +.045 at 7.191, ten year bonds +.0625 at 108 13/16, and crude oil +.25 at 54.25.

We await the 8:30 releases of initial claims, est. 320K, Personal income, est. .4%, personal spending, est. .5%, and at 10AM the Chicago PMI, est. 60.5, Help-wanted index, est. 41 and Factory Orders, est. .5%.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2005 7:30:53 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted a triple-digit gain, and other Asian markets gained, too. Helped by encouraging economic news, European markets currently post gains. Perhaps of some slight concern to U.S. bulls, our futures did not follow through on overnight gains, having flat-lined, dipped slightly near the European open, and now climbed back to the flat-line levels as this report was begun. Perhaps there's just some hesitancy ahead of U.S. economic numbers. As of 6:48 EST, gold was $430.50, and as of 6:53 EST, crude was $55.05. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

On its last day of the fiscal year and ahead of tomorrow's important tankan business sentiment index, the Nikkei gapped higher Thursday morning, helped by a decline in crude oil prices during yesterday's session. Micron's report of better-than-expected earnings helped semi-related stocks, too, as did a Moody's Investors Service upgrade of ratings on Advantest and Tokyo Electron. In stock-specific news, Nippon Oil announced a stock buyback program to be accomplished in April and raised its net profit forecast.

After that gap higher, the Nikkei coiled through much of the day then broke out of that coil to the upside, still closing off the high of the day. It posted gains of 103.07 points or 0.89%, to close at 11,668.95.

Other Asian markets gained, too. The Taiwan Weighted climbed 0.80%, and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.07%. Singapore's Straits Times closed higher by 0.86%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng increased by 0.68%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.74%.

European markets gain this morning, too. In the U.K., housing prices increased 7.9% in the year through March, far below the expected 8.6% increase. That's a case when not meeting expectations for growth is good news, since it suggests that the Bank of England might not need to be as aggressive in raising rates. French statistics agency INSEE raised its seasonally adjusted estimate for Q4 GDP to 0.9% from the previous estimate of 0.8%, and its 2004 estimate to 2.4% from the previous 2.3%. Throughout Europe, airlines and car manufacturers gained although crude did, too. One stock in the news was Elan Pharmaceutical, gathering a sell rating from Deutsche Bank after the British Pharmaceuticals company reported a second death from a rare brain disease among patients taking its Tysabri drug, now withdrawn from the market. Elan lost more than 52% in trading today. Its partner is Biogen Idec. In other stock-specific news, medical products maker Smith & Nephew has been subpoenaed by the U.S. Attorney office in New Jersey to produce documents detailing its agreements with doctors. Merrill Lynch issued a sell rating on European defense company EADS, mentioning currency issues among other pressures on the company. J.P. Morgan cut German reinsurer Munich Re's rating to a neutral one on value concerns.

As of 7:15 EST, the FTSE 100 gained 18.80 points or 0.38%, to trade at 4,919.50. The CAC 40 had gained 17.03 points or 0.42%, to trade at 4,081.64. The DAX had climbed 16.31 points or 0.38%, to trade at 4,363.83.

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