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Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 11:48:23 PM

Don't forget to turn your clock ahead one hour for Daylight Saving Time before you go to bed on Saturday night.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:17:27 PM

Last 3 weeks WEEKLY Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:03:29 PM

Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link ... Friday's INDU/DIA range was that for the week. You're not seeing things.

OI Technical Staff : 4/1/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 5:53:00 PM

Closing Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 5:39:43 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 5:21:42 PM

Mental State of Mind ... I want to blabber a little bit, while some thoughts are fresh in my mind, and perhaps you can relate to some of the following. Trading stocks/options is very "mental." Today was probably NOT a good day for me to try and trade. Last WEEK was not a good week for me to trade. Why? The Pope doesn't sound as if is health is good, Terri Shiavo dies, and this morning I learn that a long-time friend of mine passed away this morning. At times, we as traders will have our mental powers drained by things that are going on outside the markets we're trading. I've learned that I tend to get "angry" and perhaps do things I shouldn't when I'm not into it mentally. Last week was one of those weeks. Yes... I understand that subscribers "want trades," and may not necessarily care that Jeff is having a tough day, or week. Believe me, I understand this, and do my best to try and shut out things that don't involve the markets. But I do want YOU to know that I understand MY mental limits, how I act/analyze things as a trader, and I do try to "get control of myself." Maybe I'm headed for the psychiatric ward. (grin) I guess I want to let you know that I'd rather DO NOTHING than risk YOUR money on something I'm not thinking clearly on. I've said before, I'm MUCH MORE RISKY with MY MONEY than I am with other peoples money. Anyhow... sometimes a trader is best off NOT trading when their mental state of mind isn't the best. Now... today's trade in SanDisk (SNDK) was NOT an "angry trade." I've been keeping an eye on it the past couple of weeks (bugger has held up well as the QQQQ trades weak) No... but when I hear that BBY $50.60 -6.31% had warned, I thought back to late last year when I was bullish on SNDK in the lower $20's and was targeting upper $20's. Remember (12/01/2004 (SWQ-DX)) .... Holiday shopping, demand for digital cameras, and thought of demand for flash memory chips? Maybe that's about to calm as we near what may once again be the summer doldrums.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 4:45:34 PM

MONTHLY Trade Blotter of CLOSED trades at this Link The XMSR trade close out on 02/28/05 not included in March's monthly total. I find it useful to review my trades, see where I was, what I was thinking, then look where I (they are now) and make adjustments to analysis if needed. I did not make any trade profiles the week of 03/21/05-03/25/05. I (Jeff Bailey) am "satisfied" with current trade results, but would be critical of my DNA and HPC analysis. This is just one analyst's/trader's opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 4:30:30 PM

Weekly Trade Blotter of CLOSED trades at this Link with March, Q1 and YTD totals.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 4:11:49 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $117.38, DIA $104.06.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 4:28:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Acitivity Swing trade bearish put in SanDisk (SNDK) and took two (2) of the SNDK July $27.50 Puts (SWQ-SY) at the offer of $2.95. WEEKLY Trade Blotter of CLOSED positions with March, Q1 and YTD totals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 4:00:36 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $3.60 +0.84% ... 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 3:53:48 PM

The SOX is going to end this week below its 200-sma again, but it's still inside a consolidation pattern, too. Lots of indices still mired inside their recent consolidation patterns.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:54:03 PM

Cramer's down 2 cents now. ALTI $3.59 . Yes... I'm down more than that from most recent $4.87.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 3:53:08 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link , drifting through declining resistance. 30 min channel resistance has risen to 36.39, where it currently lines up with flattening 60 min resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:51:21 PM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $3.57 (unch) ... battles back.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:50:05 PM

Huh... eBay (EBAY) $37.19 -0.18% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 3:48:28 PM

For those not watching CNBC, they're noting that the Vatican has said that an announcement is to be made shortly in reference to the Pope.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:46:33 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $27.80 (unch) ...

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 3:47:10 PM

The rise looks corrective on the OEX's 15-minute chart, but that doesn't mean that the OEX won't climb the rest of the day. Bears, especially, need to make a decision about holding over the weekend or not. Remember that the OEX is still inside the broadening formation. Today's action was bearish, but it's action occurring within the broadening formation, when I already warned that prices could zoom from one side to the other, and it's action between the support of the 200-ema and -sma and the resistance of the 100/130-ema's. Although I distrusted this morning's rise and wasn't surprised to see the OEX turn down through the formation again today, I really don't think anything has been proven by today's actions except my already expressed view that trading action gets more volatile as these formations expand.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:44:34 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) at its WEEKLY Pivots with my bearishly fitted 38.2% at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:38:21 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.04 -0.90% ... updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 3:37:09 PM

The 30 min cycle oscillators are trying to turn up beneath the influence of the now-oversold 60 min oscillators for QQQQ. The daily cycle is up for grabs, given that the Macd has flipped down from yesterday's buy signal and the 10-day stochastic is still on a buy signal but ticking lower and looking uncertain. The current sideways-lower range hs prevented the short cycle from running up, and as such there are bullish divergences forming there. Overall, the immediate path of least resistance looks higher, if QQQQ can break above 36.35. However, the 30 min cycle upphase will need to get good traction to restore the daily cycle upphase to this week's prior glory- a weak bounce on Monday would create a good likelihood that this week's buy signals were a bull trap.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:34:03 PM

June Crude futures (cl05m) here's my updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 3:31:13 PM

There was no 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 557.54, but support is trying to snake under the OEX's current position. The OEX is trying to stabilize. It might not make it, but it's trying and the rest of the afternoon's direction isn't yet clear.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 3:21:38 PM

Readers, I also posted mistakenly to the Futures side at 3:00, 2:43 and 2:35. It doesn't make much sense to switch those posts at this late date, but here at least is the 3:00 one, which I'll now delete from the Futures side, as I particularly wish this one had appeared on the right side since it was pre-bounce when originally entered: OEX resistance is trying to firm at 557.23-557.70. Potential downside target of 554.31 is still in place, but as I've warned all day, bears should be making profit-protecting plans. Because that 554-555 level is known historical support (from the 29th, at least), some might want to take partial or full profits as that is approached, if it is. Some might want to begin stepping out of partial positions soon, depending on trading style and account parameters.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:20:54 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $40.99 -1.63% ... similar to QQQQ action, AAPL stuck its head just above DAILY S2, got chopped off.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 3:20:36 PM

100-tick QQQQ chart update at this Link . The cash bond market is closed, with TNX finishing lower by 4.5 bps at 4.451%. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:20:05 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $27.67 -0.46% ... right at its DAILY Pivot from underneath.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 3:18:15 PM

Sorry, readers, but Jane just let me know that I've been posting on the Futures side instead of the Options one. Here's my latest post: Careful, bears. This bounce is above preferred resistance on the 15-minute chart. If there's a 15-minute close above 557.65, that sets up the possibility of stabilizing the smallest Keltner channel. It doesn't turn it higher again, but it could show that shorts are beginning to cover into the close or that bulls are trying to buy the dip ahead of a test of Tuesday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:18:04 PM

QQQQ $36.23 -0.92% .... stuck its head back above DAILY S2, but got "chopped off."

Marc Eckelberry : 4/1/2005 4:01:20 PM

INTC tapped the 200 dma and if the market rallies on Monday, it will be a nice trade. Below the trendline now, so I'm a little worried of the lack of bounce, but it should happen soon. DOW double bottomed off January low. Again, I would not place big bets agaisnt bulls going into April.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:16:16 PM

I tend to agree with you Marc ... (short-term)

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:13:55 PM

AAPL $41.05 -1.48% ... see that price bid?

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:13:34 PM

SNDK $2767 -0.46% ... see that price bid?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 3:12:34 PM

QQQQ ticks above 7200 tick SMA resistance here, challenging upper descending triangle resistance as I type. 36.35 is the location of the current 30 min channel top.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:12:45 PM

That looked like a buy program to me. QQQQ $36.28

Marc Eckelberry : 4/1/2005 3:11:26 PM

The bullish divergence on DOW is solid and the AD line suggests this selling not as strong as it seems. I like techs right here, especially INTC.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/1/2005 3:10:32 PM

Buy INTC MAY 22.50 calls at 1.15.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:10:04 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 3:02:58 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 3:01:10 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with a large sell program just fired off, nearly 1.5M shares within that 100 tick bar.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 2:59:25 PM

Get ready for the "hour of truth." DIA $103.77 sits on critical WEEKLY S1. Bond market about to close.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 2:51:35 PM

Breadth isn't as awful as it might otherwise feel, with declining volume outpacing advancing volume just over 2:1 on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq. There are 51 new highs to 50 new lows on the NYSE, 52 new highs to 103 new lows on the Naz.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 2:45:21 PM

QQQQ is back below 36.20, with 30 min channel support down to 36.08. The 200% retracement off yesterday's low is at 36.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 2:40:24 PM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $5.79 -3.17% ... lack of bullish speculators in this market? Or oil price overdone? Maybe USEG overdone after achieving bullish vertical count.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 2:37:14 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 202.73 +0.43% ... challenge yesterday's highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 2:33:56 PM

May crude oil is closed at 57.30, +1.90 or 3.43%: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 2:32:36 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.21 -0.98%, SPY $117.07 -0.75%, AIG $51.30 -7.43%, INTC $23.06 -0.73%, MSFT $24.15 -0.08%, CSCO $17.89 (unch), ELN $3.37 +4.01%, JDSU $1.61 -3.59%, XYBR $0.22 -45.2%, ORCL $12.61 +1.04%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 2:28:44 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 2:21:05 PM

May crude is back below 57, currently +2.75% at 56.925.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 2:20:55 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 2:16:34 PM

Remember that the OEX remains within its broadening formation and anything and everything can and does happen within those formations. So far, the 15-minute Keltner charts have worked perfectly to suggest what's going to happen, but as the day draws to a close and institutions take first-day-of-quarter positions, that might change.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 2:16:30 PM

The 30 min cycle for QQQQ is as oversold as it's been in nearly 3 weeks, while the 60 min cycle continues to work its way lower. So far, the declining upper resistance line on the descending QQQQ triangle has held back every bounce, and a break above 36.32 will be the first sign of trouble for bears. Above 36.45, a 30 min cycle upphase would kick off. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 2:16:05 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 2:14:15 PM

Bears should keep profit-protecting plans in place. The OEX continues to slip lower along its smallest, descending Keltner channel on its 15-minute chart, but it does so reluctantly. The 554.54 downside support may still be an appropriate target, but bears still most want to see 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 558.50 to keep faith in that downside target. Support is firmer between 560-560.20, but softening somewhat from about an hour ago.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 2:08:16 PM

June Crude Oil alert 58.65 +3.95% (30-minute delayed) ... trades my fitted 80.9% retracement.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 2:03:37 PM

RLX testing its 200-sma now after having broken below the 200-ema again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 2:03:08 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 2:02:23 PM

Bears are so far getting their wishes on the OEX. It's trying desperately to cling to Keltner support, but that support refuses to firm enough to hold up the candles.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 1:59:17 PM

QQQQ's breaking 36.21 now. 30 min channel support is down to 36.10.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:59:14 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $40.73 -2.23% ... could get clocked again intra-day. 5-minute pennant breaking down and has been finding sellers at WEEKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:53:54 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,171.23 , DIA $103.92, QQQQ $36.20

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 1:53:49 PM

Session low for QQQQ, testing descending triangle support here at 36.21. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 1:51:57 PM

Bears most want continued 15-minute closes beneath 558.94. The OEX has erased the breakdown signal, but its smallest channel still remains turned lower. Resistance at 560.36-561.36 remains strong, but will soon soften as the lines are beginning to separate.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:50:59 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 2.2 bp at 44.74, or 4.474%. Whipsaw today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:48:35 PM

Perhaps a sacrificial lamb ... but to give traders some feel, I've been bidding five (5) of the GLWTB at $0.30 all day and no fill to this point. GLW $11.21 +0.71%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:46:01 PM

11 sell program premiums vs. 1 buy program premium so far today.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 1:45:41 PM

Crude oil is holding near the highs, up 3.66% at 57.425. TNX is down 2.2 bps at 4.474%, with QQQQ holding above the 36.21 level on big volume of 104.9M so far, already surpassing yesterday's and average daily volume.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:41:54 PM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.96 -0.66% ... softening up a bit and DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:40:41 PM

QQQQ $36.28 -0.82% ... about the third testing of DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:39:03 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $27.64 -0.57% ... watch $27.50 and see if traders don't pull the plug.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 1:37:28 PM

The OEX breaks toward the next 554.73 downside target on the 15-minute chart. This will be a test of Tuesday's low. Bears still don't want to see a quick reversal, especially as this newest break comes as the stop-running time of day approaches. Keep profit-protecting plans in place.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:36:24 PM

Sell Program Premium ... several today. SPX 1,171.13 , DIA $103.91

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 1:33:50 PM

The broken pennant is looking like a descending triangle for QQQQ, with a third test of 36.21 support shaping up here. If so, then a break of that level should see 30 min channel support decline from its currentl 36.15 level. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:27:07 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) and shapshot of components sorted by their PRICE weighting. Largely AIG. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 1:25:06 PM

QQQQ just failed at descending upper pennant resistance again: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 1:22:32 PM

Depending on what happens over the next 10 minutes, there's a possibility of the OEX forming a doji as the latest 60-minute candle. Bears would rather not see a doji at the bottom of today's decline, but it's a visual expression of indecision and not a decisive vote for a turnaround. It would still need confirmation from the next period's candle. As I warned as the OEX tested 559, however, profit-protecting plans need to be in place, whatever that might mean for your particular trading style.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 1:19:49 PM

Bears want to see the OEX maintain 15-minute closes below 559.58 but certainly below 561.38.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:19:54 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link Note: New highs have stalled and new lows build from yesterday's 01:00 reading

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 1:10:30 PM

RLX still at its 200-ema, just above its 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 1:09:13 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link bouncing off the 36.21 low and regaining the pennant apex.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 1:07:35 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 1:03:42 PM

New breakdown signal (although tentative) on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, with a new potential target of 554.95. First resistance is at 558.43, next at 559.76 and stronger resistance just over 561. Bears should continue profit-protecting plans as this breakdown signal is still tentative.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 1:00:00 PM

I mentioned in an earlier post that I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX turn down through its broadening formation after being rejected on its attempt to break out, and here's what's been happening: Link That 555 level is a potential downside target on the 15-minute Keltner chart, to be confirmed as a target if this current 15-minute period closes below a Keltner line currently at 558.54. It will have been set only tentatively, however, so bears should be making plans to protect profits. Note that the OEX is just in the middle of that broadening formation, so crazy trading conditions might still exist.

Tab Gilles : 4/1/2005 12:58:43 PM

Jonathan....great longterm chart on AIG.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 12:56:49 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , breaking lower pennant support here. Channel support has edged lower to 36.18.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:54:58 PM

At this point, we just have to wait and see what happens next on the OEX. It's trying to firm, but possibly forming another "b" distribution pattern such as the one it broke below about 45 minutes ago. Nearby support possibly looks strong enough to at least temporarily steady the OEX, but that's uncertain. The 561.50-561.75 level looks strong enough to stop advances, too, with 560.24 also serving as resistance.

As I type, the OEX breaks lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 12:57:24 PM

33 year log-scale quarterly chart of AIG. This quarter represents the first break of a 30+ year trendline: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 12:46:28 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:46:11 PM

This is a potential bounce-or-keel-over point for many indices. Bears should have profit-protecting plans in place. For the OEX, resistance is now at the current level, then at 560.35, and then even stronger near 561.60.

Tab Gilles : 4/1/2005 12:44:23 PM

Jonathan, that doji on the $TNX reflects the uncertainty of the market on which direction inflation is going to take on the differing data the reports gave us this morning.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:43:56 PM

The TRAN drops again toward its LOD, and is now just below 3700 again, at 3696.80, but above the converging 50- and 100-ema's that have been supporting it this week.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:43:08 PM

RLX sits on its 200-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 12:42:29 PM

Updated 100 tick QQQQ chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/1/2005 12:40:55 PM

Linda, here's an annotated $RLX chart. I agree that the 200-ma's may not hold here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 12:38:01 PM

Bullish swing trade adjust stop alert ... for CMGI Inc. (CMGI) $1.96 ... lets lower our stop 2 cents to $1.93. But that's all I'll give it.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 12:37:54 PM

Ten year note yields have flipped back to negative here, TNX -.7 bps at 4.489%. Huge doji on the daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:36:34 PM

First resistance now for the OEX (Keltner) is at 559.13, with next resistance above that at 560.57. Bears want to see 15-minute closes below 560.57 to keep the smallest Keltner channel pointed lower.

Jane Fox : 4/1/2005 12:32:49 PM

Dateline CNN Vatican says pope's condition has worsened, breathing has become shallow.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 12:32:17 PM

New lows for the Dow and SPX futures here, but QQQQ and NQ remain several ticks off their lows. QQQQ has 30 and 60 min channel support lined up at 36.20 currently, with a new short cycle downphase underway. Bulls need to regain 36.47 to turn the 30 min cycle back up.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:31:38 PM

Potential breakdown now on the OEX's 15-minute chart, without a quick bounce.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:29:54 PM

Firmest resistance for the OEX on the 15-minute chart is still up at 561.10-561.82, but nearest resistance is at 559.54. Without 15-minute closes above that firm resistance, the OEX will turn its smallest Keltner channel lower on this chart, pointing it down toward 555.00. There's no breakdown and so no new setting of this potential downside target as yet, but the OEX is trying. It's still in danger of being boomeranged up to retest resistance, though.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 12:29:35 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $50.96 -8.06% ... getting drilled now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 12:26:56 PM

Bearish swing trade put alert ... Taking two (2) of the SanDisk (SNDK) $27.68 -0.43% July $27.50 Puts (SWQ-SY) at the offer of $2.95.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 12:23:57 PM

NYSE Comp. ($NYA.X) 7,149.93 -0.24% ... here's my updated bar chart where I wanted to quickly get view after the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio reversed up 3-boxes. Analysis with 10-day NH/NL also noted. Chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:23:43 PM

As the OEX approaches/hits the next downside target, let's look at what the Keltner charts say about resistance, if it should bounce. Currently, next slight resistance is at 559.55, with next resistance above that near that zone that was holding it back earlier.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:21:02 PM

RLX just above its 200-ema and -sma's, at 423.68 and 421.73, with the RLX at 424.79. There's bounce potential here, but watch this indicator index for signs that it might drop below those averages.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 12:20:30 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:19:43 PM

BIX now below 350 again.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:19:21 PM

Downside target now at 559 for the OEX. Bears should be aware of bounce potential from that zone, but overhead resistance still looks relatively firm.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 12:16:23 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 12:17:01 PM

Ten year bonds have so far failed at unchanged, with TNX currently up .8 bps at 4.504%. Nymex crude is up 1.9% here, .325 off the intraday high. QQQQ is edging lower, with the short cycle upphase stalled.

Tab Gilles : 4/1/2005 12:12:14 PM

Here's 2 interesting charts, candle formations and ma's. XLB & XLE Link Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:10:51 PM

Advdec line turning down from what might have been a bear flag. Didn't retrace far, if it was, though. Is it just reforming into a wider bear flag?

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:09:26 PM

The OEX's 15-minute nested-Keltner-channel resistance has held. Bears now want to see a drop through 560 as confirmation, with continued vulnerability down to 559.08. I'd be watchful for a potential bounce attempt from that level, if it's reached, unless there's a quick plunge through it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 12:07:57 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link I added the Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) to the market watch ... just above PHF and closer to 30-year yield. Say.... right between the longer-dated 30-year and "junk"

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 12:07:16 PM

Volume has fallen off considerably here, but it's still running very heavy today, with 79M QQQQs traded so far, compared with 86.7M total for all of yesterday and the 96.9M average.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:06:56 PM

The TRAN has been finding support all week this week at its converging 50 and 100-sma's on the daily chart, with those averages at 3675.70 and 3674.83, respectively. That's also near a 50% retracement of the TRAN's rally off the January low, with that 50% retracement at 3673.59. Market bulls don't want the TRAN to drop below that 50% level and sustain values below it. The TRAN is at 3712.58 as I type, with a day's low of 3686.91.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 12:03:13 PM

So far, OEX 15-minute nested-Keltner-chart resistance still holds.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 11:58:25 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:56:36 AM

The OEX tests that resistance on the 15-minute chart. Just took a look at the Dow, too, and, like the TRAN, immediate resistance hasn't firmed up as it appears to have done on the OEX. First resistance is at 10,489.55 on that chart. Hmm. That supposition that OEX resistance might hold would be a stronger one if these other indices were also facing analogous converging resistance lines. If a strong bounce gets going elsewhere, it won't matter much what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:52:57 AM

As has been happening a lot lately, the TRAN's 15-minute Keltner chart gives a completely different picture. The TRAN's done a bit of zooming around today, as have many other indices, but Keltner resistance has not firmed up for the TRAN the way it has for the OEX. It looks as if first relatively firm resistance for the TRAN does not occur until just under 3730, although there's other resistance before that. Nothing--either resistance or support--can be pointed to and said to be particularly firm.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 11:52:37 AM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) updated daily interval bar chart with new MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/1/2005 11:51:49 AM

$GOX/EUR/USD Hourly chart Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 11:51:19 AM

Ten year note yields are dropping, currently down to a 0.4 bp gain at 4.5%, with ZN futures up to a .0625 loss at 109 13/64.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:50:48 AM

So far, resistance still holds on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart. Remember that we're talking about holding on 15-minute closes. That resistance has now turned lower to 561.63-561.99.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:44:19 AM

So far, that 561.64-562.03 (new values) resistance showing up on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart is holding. Vulnerability to 560.20 and even to 559.08 remains as long as the OEX can't produce 15-minute closes above that resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 11:40:22 AM

QQQQ failed below 36.43 on that run, but a short cycle upphase kicked off on hte bounce. A break below 36.30 should be enough to stall it, while a break above 36.47 for 5 minutes or better would kick off a new 30 min cycle upphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 11:34:32 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $104.70 -0.27% ... just re-testing DAILY S1 from below. Session low has been that 104.47 level from WEEKLY Pivot retracement and lower "yellow zone of support." Today's high of $105.62 came just under WEEKLY R1 of $105.64. Pretty good tie to my previous work from evening of FOMC and option activity analysis.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 11:28:03 AM

QQQQ $36.37 -0.54% ... day trader's chart at this Link ... Should NOT come back above DAILY Pivot ... unless PHF $8.87 +0.33% blows above $9.00.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:27:31 AM

A look at the OEX's daily nested Keltner channel chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:22:42 AM

Without a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 562.08, the OEX still looks vulnerable to 559.11.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 11:21:51 AM

QQQQ is rising to declining 7200 tick SMA resistance at 36.39, but even a break above it will be iffy below the 36.46 level (yesterday's lows) that held back the bounce earlier this morning: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:21:36 AM

VIX still generally rising, but still inside today's gap lower.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:20:00 AM

We'll soon see whether that 15-minute Keltner resistance gathering from 561.65-562.10 is really strong enough to stop the OEX (on 15-minute closes). The OEX is at 561.13 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:17:51 AM

The RLX turned down sharply from its test of the converging 30- and 50-dma's. It's now back below 430, heading quickly toward another test of its 200-ema and -sma's, at 423.69 and 421.74. Market bulls want to see a bounce from these averages and not a plunge through them. The RLX is now at 426.18. Watch this index, too, as a first indicator of market strength/weakness.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 11:15:29 AM

Ten year bonds are firming again, TNX down to a 1 bp gain at 4.506%. That move has corresponded with the current bounce in QQQQ off the 36.21 low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 11:13:55 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:13:19 AM

The BIX has erased almost all of this morning's gains, although it does remain just above 350, at 351.57.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 11:11:48 AM

Here's the latest story from Marketwatch just out:

U.S. March ISM services index rises to 63.1% By Greg Robb WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace during March, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index rose to 63.1% from 59.8% in February. The rise was above expectations. Economists were looking for a drop to 59.0%. New orders rose to 62.1% from 61.6%. The employment index slipped to 57.1% from a record high 59.6% in February. The ISM services index was released early. It was scheduled to be released on Tuesday, April 5.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:11:24 AM

Advdec line attempting to steady again, but it's had a mighty fall today. That's why I'd noted its extreme levels earlier this morning. Sometimes we see equities have a blow-out day when the advdec level is so high, but it's a warning of overdone exuberance, too.

Tab Gilles : 4/1/2005 11:11:16 AM

Inflation or not? see page #5 of ISM report for prices paid at wholesale level data. Link Prices Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased March for the 22nd consecutive month but at a slower rate of increase than in February. ISM's Non- Manufacturing Prices Index for March is 65.6 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from the seasonally adjusted 66.4 percent registered for February. In March, the percentage of members reporting higher prices remained at 43 percent, the same as in February, the proportion indicating no change rose 2 percentage points to 56 percent, and the number noting lower prices decreased 2 percentage points percent. The industries reporting the highest rates of increase in prices paid in March are: Agriculture; Transportation; Entertainment; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. No industry is reporting price decreases March. Prices %Higher %Same %Lower Index Mar 2005 43 56 1 65.6 Feb 2005 43 54 3 66.4 Jan 2005 37 59 4 66.6 Dec 2004 38 57 5 73.6 $FVX & $TNX Link Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:06:24 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart shows the OEX vulnerable to 559.15, next support, but likely to attempt a bounce. It should find relatively firm resistance from 561.65 and 562.30. If not, we may not be through with disorderly trading conditions and may be zooming around a bit more. The 15-minute chart suggests that declines are more likely than strong bounces over the near time.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 11:04:39 AM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 11:03:11 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 11:02:25 AM

New headline just out:

10:57am U.S. MARCH ISM SERVICES EMPLOYMENT 57.1% VS 59.6% FEB

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 11:00:29 AM

We should now expect to see resistance in the 561.65-562.30 levels on any OEX bounces.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:59:04 AM

Another headline- trying to re-confirm it from another source:

10:56am ISM RELEASES SERVICES INDEX EARLY, REPORT WAS DUE 4/5

10:56am U.S. MARCH ISM SERVICES 63.1% VS 59.8% IN FEB.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:58:39 AM

I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX head down through the broadening formation now that it attempted and failed to punch through the upper resistance. However, remember the notoriously difficult-to-trade action within a broadening formation. I would not be happy to see this action if I were in bullish plays, however, and it would make me cautious about initiating new ones. The OEX's 15-minute chart now shows it vulnerable to 559.21, which may also happen before I can get this uploaded.

Tab Gilles : 4/1/2005 10:56:26 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Murphy continues climb after Long Legged Doji Wednesday. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:56:23 AM

Cancel Swing trade long alert ... for Altair (ALTI) $3.50 -1.96% at this point (from yesterday)

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:56:06 AM

The OEX's three-minute chart shows that a test of 561.82-562.00 is likely, which won't be big news by the time this is uploaded, since the OEX drops as I type. The support is tenuous, but resistance near 562.40 and then again at 562.79-563.10 is looking firm now.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:55:43 AM

Session high for crude oil here at 56.30, +1.62%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:55:11 AM

CMGI (CMGI) $2.01 -1.95% ... trying to "firm" at psychological $2.00. Long this one in my personal account, but can use as "pulse" for aggression when trading QQQQ. Also use that DIA "sold to you" level as a feel for option/institutional action.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:51:35 AM

QQQQ's daily cycle upphase is based on higher highs and higher lows, which we've had for most of this week. Today's daily candle, still just over an hour old, is a bearish engulfing- actually, a key outside reversal from this morning's higher high. The Macd, which had printed a bullish cross yesterday, is now back to a bullish kiss on the whipsaw, though the 10 day stochastic continues to point up. If QQQQ closes below 36 today, the daily cycle indicators will whipsaw in a bull trap- but for now, in this daily timeframe, the picture remains bullish off the sub-36 daily cycle low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:50:54 AM

Covering a day trade short in the QQQQ $36.33 -0.65% in my personal account here. DAILY S2 $36.28 could find buyers.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:48:36 AM

Bond yields are ticking back up from a higher low, QQQQ rolling over from beneath 36.46. 30 min channel support has caught up with the move, now down to 36.30.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:48:43 AM

The OEX may be trying to form a corrective bounce to retrace some of those steep losses from the HOD. A new LOD of the day would suggest it's lost that battle, though.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:45:21 AM

OEX 15-minute nested Keltner channels are showing a further softening of the support just beneath the OEX. Resistance doesn't look particularly strong, either, though, so next direction may be up for grabs, but just know that yesterday's rock-solid support, mentioned several times as being capable of prompting a bounce, is no longer rock solid. A drop to test it again, at the least, isn't precluded, and the result of the test isn't so certain this time. That support now ranges from 561.26-561.69.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:41:46 AM

So far, the OEX has difficulty now maintaining values above its 130-ema on the daily chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:39:58 AM

QQQQ's stalled at yesterday's low from below, while bonds bounce, with TNX down to a 1.9 bp gain now at 4.515%.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:37:24 AM

The OEX is attempting that bounce now, attempting another move through the daily 130-ema at 562.68, with the 100-ema above that at 565.04. The advdec line is attempting to steady, too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:34:43 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.00 +0.02% ... still doesn't like our "sold to you" level does it?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:34:35 AM

Crude oil is up to 55.80 here, 12.5 cents off the session high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:33:33 AM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $18.11 +0.16% ... Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.95 +1.24% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:32:46 AM

The March ISM number has just been corrected from 63.1% to 55.2%:

CORRECT: U.S. March ISM factory index 55.2% By Greg Robb WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States decelerated slightly in March, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday. The ISM index slipped to 55.2 percent in March from 55.3 percent in February. The drop was not as large as expected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to slip to 55.0. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. (Corrects headline to 55.2 percent, and that index declined slightly.)

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:32:45 AM

This does not inspire confidence in a bullish play, does it? Link Note that the OEX hasn't broken out of its most recent conslidation pattern to the downside, though, so a bounce isn't precluded.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:32:02 AM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) whips back higher. Now up 3.4 bp at 4.530%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:30:06 AM

Huge reversal for bonds, TNX now up 4.4 bps at 4.54%, a .98% gain so far. QQQQ broke yesterday's low, currently trying to find support from an oversold short cycle and lower 30 and 60 min keltner violations.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:30:07 AM

I felt wrong headed being so skeptical this morning, too wrong headed to suggest a bearish entry when the OEX couldn't maintain that breakout level.

The OEX approaches that support I mentioned earlier, but that support is weaker than it looked earlier. There could be a bounce now, but if it can't get over the 100/130-ema's at 562.67 and 565.02, I'd be skeptical of that bounce, too, and perhaps watching for a place to enter a bearish trade, if there's such an opportunity and if internals continue to degrade.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:27:19 AM

QQQQ tests yesterday's low now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:27:56 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $41.26 -1.05% ... diving. Testing rising 50-day SMA here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:25:54 AM

QQQQ is testing rising support off yesterday's lows at 36.55. Below 36.45, a lower low will print from yesterday, the first violation of the daily cycle upphase since it started. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:24:34 AM

The OEX has erased its breakout signal on the 15-minute chart. Nearest resistance is 563.53. Nearest support is from 561.68-562.25, with that support looking weaker than it did yesterday, but still firmer than nearby resistance. A bounce from that level might be expected, but I'm not sure how high we should expect it to go.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:24:28 AM

CMGI (CMGI) $2.03 -0.97% ... action here suggests to me that there are few bullish speculators at this point. DAILY S1 here.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:21:51 AM

After punching through the daily 100-ema, the OEX now drops back to test the 130-ema at 562.69, with the OEX currently at 563.09. Bulls don't want to see a sustained decline back below the 130-ema after the 100-ema was tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:21:48 AM

Ten year notes go negative, TNX +0.3 bps at 4.499%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:21:45 AM

S&P Insurance (IUX) 295.98 -1.11% ... see AIG.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:21:04 AM

Amazing action in the USD Index this morning: Link . Daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:20:26 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) 53.51 -3.51% Link ... very bearish here. Breaks major support

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:17:55 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:16:29 AM

VIX climbing, but just climbing into this morning's gap.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:16:02 AM

Ten year bonds are dropping here, TNX down to its pre-employment data levels, currently -.6 bps at 4.49%.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:15:36 AM

Advdec line dropping; advdecv line climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:14:30 AM

QQQQ bounces from the 30 min Keltner violation. Former trendline/7200 tick SMA support is now resistance at 36.74-.77.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:14:20 AM

Buy Program Premium .... SPX 1,185.84, DIA $105.29.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:13:04 AM

Here's how the OEX looks with respect to its broadening formation and the reason for my caution: Link Trading within a broadening formation is notoriously difficult and I don't see a breakout yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:11:17 AM

Best Buy (BBY) $52.39 -2.99% ... warns on quarter. (see AAPL)

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:10:37 AM

An evening-star formation is possible on the OEX's 15-minute chart. The OEX is testing support now, however, and a sharp push higher is possible here, but it also looks likely that, evening-star or not, the OEX will have erased its breakout signal on that 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:10:28 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $41.56 -0.19% ... sharp decline last couple of minutes. On volume.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:09:42 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:09:07 AM

QQQQ plunges below support, breaking the lower 30 min channel band here: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:09:02 AM

I don't want to be one of those bears to whom Mark refers in his 10:05 post on the futures side (smile), but I do not yet see a breakout on the OEX's broadening formation. Wouldn't call myself a bear, but I would definitely call myself a skeptical person here about any breakout having yet occurred for the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:07:58 AM

TNX has given back half its earlier gains, currently down 2.9 bps at 4.467%. Daily chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:06:59 AM

The OEX is back inside the broadening formation.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:06:46 AM

Depending on how the upper trendline is drawn, the OEX is either dropping back inside the broadening formation--not good--or is just retesting the breakout level.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:06:16 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1187.60, DIA $105.41

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:05:05 AM

Another bounce from the trendline for QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 10:02:54 AM

The OEX is still having difficulty maintaining that broadening-formation breakout.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:02:50 AM

The Fed has announced a 3 day 5.75B repo, for a net drain of 3.75B today.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:01:53 AM

Headlines:

10:01am U.S. MARCH ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX ABOVE 55.0% EXPECTED

10:01am U.S. MARCH ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 63.1% VS 55.3% FEB

10:00am U.S. FEB. PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION RISES 1.1 PERCENT

10:00am U.S. FEB. PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION RISES 0.1%

10:00am U.S. FEB. CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 0.4% VS 0.7% EXPECTED

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 10:01:34 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 10:01:05 AM

Session lows for gold and CAD futures here. Euros are down .38% at 1.2933, off a low of 1.292.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 9:58:54 AM

Another pullback to the trendline of the broadening formation on the OEX's 60-minute chart. Still reserving judgment.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 9:58:42 AM

QQQQ failed at yesterday's high on this last attempt, declining now but so far on diminishing volume. 7200 tick SMA support is up to 36.74, just below the rising trendline that supported the last bounce. Below that, the 30 min cycle upphase will stall. Data due in 2 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:56:15 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.55 +0.53% ... not a lot of option action. May $103 Calls $3.60 are most active at 100:490.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 9:56:08 AM

The RLX is today still testing those converging 30- and 50-sma's that I've been mentioning over the last few days. Those averages are just under 434, with the RLX at 431.48. There's also a best-fit descending trendline near 440.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 9:54:55 AM

The BIX is posting strong gains, above yesterday's high and above the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the mid-February high. Bulls want to see those gains maintained after 10:00.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 9:54:42 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 9:53:37 AM

Construction spending and ISM Index due in 7 minutes, est. +.6% and 54.9 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:53:15 AM

CMGI (CMGI) $2.07 +0.97% ... quiet

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 9:53:03 AM

Michigan sentiment 92.6 vs. 92.5 exp.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:52:36 AM

"Get back in their Maverick Tube (MVK) $32.90 +1.19% .... Iceman needs you."

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 9:51:46 AM

The 15-minute nested Keltner channels now suggest an upside target of 567.51 for the OEX. The OEX is having difficulty maintaining the breakout from the broadening formation, however, and we still have ISM in a few minutes, so take any such upside target with a grain of salt. I'm personally reserving judgment as yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:51:08 AM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 201.63 -0.11% ... sector "loser" and this isn't all that bad.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:50:09 AM

Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 854.03 +2.35% ... sector winner early.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:48:50 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.51 +0.49% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 9:48:43 AM

The OEX is testing the daily 21- and 100-ema's, with those at 566.35 and 565.10, respectively, and with the OEX at 565.58.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:48:16 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.92 +0.90% ... kicking in here.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 9:47:39 AM

Advdec volume +3000, an extreme level. Could be a buying frenzy all day, of course. I'm not used to watching the advdecv as much, and it's certainly not showing the same exuberance. Maybe Jane or one of the others has a take on that.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:47:35 AM

VIX.X 12.97 -7.48% ... plunging ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 13.40, 13.70, Piv= 13.86, 14.16, 14.32.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 9:46:24 AM

The Fed has a total of 9.5B in various repos expiring today. Awaiting the 10AM announcement.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 9:44:58 AM

Here's why you should be very careful about assuming a breakout from a broadening formation and why they're so difficult to trade: Link The OEX may be in the process of breaking out (it's moving up again), but this is a tentative breakout from a best-fit, best-guess upper trendline, and it may not be a breakout yet at all.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:44:32 AM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $18.05 -0.16% .... not unlike "junk bonds" ... not much reaction being shown here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:43:35 AM

QQQQ $36.75 +0.50% ... DIA 105.42 +0.40% ... SPY $118.75 +0.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:42:28 AM

TRIN 2.51 +101.61% ... spike to 10.57. Somebody selling into that opening tick buy program.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 9:40:01 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , approaching rising trendline support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:37:43 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.49 +0.47% ....

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:36:45 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.81 -0.33% ... not as bullish as I would have thought. Equity bulls should be cautious on the major indices gap higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 9:34:44 AM

QQQQ is holding well above 7200 tick SMA support at 36.66 currently, with the 30 min channel climbing to a top of 37.10 currently. My chart has premarket spikes to 36.96 currently. The 30 min channel remains bullish above the rising SMA, within the new daily cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 9:34:35 AM

The OEX is attempting to push above 15-minte Keltner resistance. Bulls want to see a first 15-minute close above 564.34 to confirm a breakout on that chart, and possible move toward 567.39. As I write, that close looks more than possible, but we can see some surprising moves in early trading. The top of the broadening formation is also being currently challenged, at least according to my best-fit trendline, so the OEX is up against possible strong resistance here in the 565 zone.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:32:34 AM

Merck (MRK) $32.65 +0.86% ....

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 9:31:49 AM

The OEX moves up within the broadening formation on its 60-minute chart, up toward the daily 21 and 100-ema's, at 566.22 and 565.07, respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 9:31:16 AM

New lows for gold futures here, June gold -2.8 at 428.20. HUI opened a few seconds ago +.07 at 201.93, XAU not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:30:22 AM

Hollywood Entertainment (HLYW) $13.22 +0.37% ... Carl Icahn has increased his stake to 10.84%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:26:32 AM

Pre-market Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.80, XYBR $0.21, SPY $118.56, TASR $10.81, HLYW $13.20, ELN $3.42, NOK $15.65.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:21:30 AM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) plunged to as low as 4.398%, but now down 5.1 bp at 4.445%. (WEEKLY S1) at 4.478%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2005 9:17:56 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.68 and set for program selling at $+2.22.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 9:00:59 AM

Session low for April gold at 427.30, -1.30, with June gold -1.5 at 429.50.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 8:57:51 AM

The OEX ended the day with a small-bodied candle following a tall white candle. That small-bodied candle, a visual signal of indecision, occurred just beneath/at the daily 100/130-ema's, at the top of a broadening formation that's forming on top of the 200-ema and -sma's. Powerful resistance, powerful support.

Any time you see a broadening formation, run. Their reputation as being difficult to trade is well earned. Often, as they widen, prices zoom from one side to the other in a single day. Competing bullish and bearish formations set up. Formations confirmation but there's no follow-through in the direction of the confirmation.

This broadening formation is particularly difficult because it set up at the end of the quarter. Today may begin to tell the tale, then. Here's my best guess at the trendlines defining the formation: Link Futures are higher this morning, not damaged by the lower-than-expected jobs number. Bad news is good news, since it lowers expectations for aggressive rate hikes? Currency traders certainly are interpreting the news that way this morning.

Bulls will want to see a breakout above 565, but remember that the whole point of a broadening formation is that it broadens. An apparent breakout is soon reversed. If the broadening formation is breached and you enter a play, be ready to jump back out again if there's a quick reversal. This possibility is strengthened by the fact that we still have the important March ISM to be released and by the presence of presumed strong resistance in the 567-568 zone and then a couple of points above that.

Only the most adept scalpers with spare cash to burn should consider trading the OEX while the OEX is trapped within that broadening formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 8:54:02 AM

TNX is testing gap support at the 4.4% level, currently -7.5 bps at 4.421%. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 8:52:24 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with the 30 min cycle in an early upphase above 36.63.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 8:47:02 AM

A big downside spike from the USD Index Link with CAD and EUR futures in the green. The weakness in gold and silver futures this morning (-.30 at 428.30 for April gold and -.047 at 7.135 for May silver) is out of place and frankly puzzling.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 8:32:41 AM

TNX is down 8.5 bps at 4.411%, a 1.89% plunge this morning. QQQQ is up .22 at 36.72, crude oil +.45 at 55.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 8:31:52 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. MARCH AVERAGE WORKWEEK FLAT AT 33.7 HOURS

8:30am U.S. MARCH FACTORY JOBS DOWN 8,000

8:30am U.S. MARCH RETAIL JOBS DOWN 10,000

8:30am U.S. MARCH AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.3%, 2.6% Y-O-Y

8:30am U.S. MARCH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.2% VS 5.4% IN FEB.

8:30am U.S. JAN NONFARM PAYROLL UP 124,000 VS 132K PREV

8:30am U.S. FEB NONFARM PAYROLLS UP REV 243,000 VS 262,000 PRE

8:30am U.S. MARCH NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 110,000 VS 221K EXPECTED

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 8:31:06 AM

Nonfarm payrolls 110K vs. 220 exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 8:30:48 AM

Looks like a negative jobs number with yields diving. Awaiting the headline.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 8:27:59 AM

Ten year bonds are holding in the green, with TNX down 1.1 bps at 4.485% currently. Employment report due out in 3 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/1/2005 7:42:52 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1188, NQ 1497.5, YM 10556 and QQQQ +.15 at 36.72. Gold is down a dime at 428.50, silver -.041 at 7.141, ten year notes down .0312 at 109 15/64, and crude oil +.425 at 55.825.

We await the 8:30 release of nonfarm payolls, est. 220K, unemployment rate, est. 5.3%, hourly earnings, est. .2%, average workweek, est. 33.7, at 9:45 Michigan Sentiment, est. 92.5, and at 10AM, construction spending, est. .6% and the ISM index, est. 54.9.

Linda Piazza : 4/1/2005 7:00:49 AM

Good morning. Although the headline tankan survey of business sentiment number disappointed, investors focused on the projections portion and sent the Nikkei higher on the first day of trading in the new fiscal year. Most other Asian markets gained, too, as do European markets. Our futures post solid gains ahead of the jobs number. As of 6:39 EST, gold was down $1.10, and crude, up $0.30 to $55.70. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

In its first trading day of the new fiscal year, the Nikkei gapped almost 80 points lower and then began a steady and steep climb into positive territory, finally closing more than 133 points off its low of the day, with banks helping to lead the index to gains. The Nikkei closed 54.68 points or 0.47% higher, at 11,723.63.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment was released, falling to 14 in March, down from December's 22. Predictions had been for another 22 number, no change from December's. Confidence among large manufacturers fell for the second quarter in a row, staying steady among non-manufacturers. Confidence among small manufacturers also fell. The survey revealed that the pace of capital spending increases by manufacturers might slow, although capital spending itself might increase. Global demand, increasing crude costs and currency moves contributed to the decrease. Some consider this information as corroborating recent economic numbers suggesting that Japan's recovery is stalling, but others focused on the projections portions of the survey, which were generally more optimistic.

Most other Asian markets closed higher, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.38%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.68%. South Korea's Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy released figures for custom-cleared exports for March, saying those exports rose 14.2% for the year. Demand from the U.S. and China expanded. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.11%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng was one of the few bourses to close lower, slipping 0.19%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed a hefty 3.58%.

European markets trade higher, too. German retailers released sales figures, with some of those retailers reporting sales higher and benefiting from the report. February's retail sales showed no change, however, from the previous month's, although they did climb 1% from the year-ago level. U.K. miners helped lead U.K. bourses to gains, benefiting after a Brazilian miner negotiated a big jump in prices for iron ore supplied to ThyssenKrupp Stahl. Many auto manufacturers gained, despite likely higher costs of steel. One auto manufacturer not participating in European gains is DaimlerChrysler, dropping after it revealed costs for the reorganization of its Smart car unit and also recalled 1.3 million Mercedes-Benz cars for problems with batteries and alternators. In other stock-specific news, pharmaceutical company Roche rose after announcing that the European Union had approved its Xeloda drug as an adjuvant therapy for stage III colon cancer.

As of 6:49 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 30.70 points or 0.63%, to trade at 4,925.10. The CAC 40 had gained 8.21 points or 0.20%, to trade at 4,075.99. The DAX had gained 24.92 points or 0.57%, to trade at 4,373.69.

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