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Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:56:55 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) 1,181.00 +0.10% ... quiet. Up 1.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:56:09 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.00 +0.67% ... session highs. June Gold (gc05m) $425.70 -0.07% ... down $0.30 and session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:40:41 PM

Congratulations to Roy Williams and the UNC Tar Heels after their thrilling 75 to 70 win over Illinois for the men's NCAA Basketball Championship!

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:23:21 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) ... Chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:22:36 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) up 1.25 at 1,181.00 as Illinois battles back to tie UNC with just 2:01 left.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:21:17 PM

NDX Stocks that were sold the most during sell programs executed by program trading firms on Monday were WYNN, MCHP, PETM, MOLXE, AMGN, KLAC.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:21:49 PM

OEX Stocks that were sold the most during sell programs executed by program trading firms on Monday were GM, MMM, MO, UTX, GE, JPM, MER, CSCO, BAX, INTC, TYC.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:18:23 PM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.35 and set for program selling at $+1.62.

OI Technical Staff : 4/4/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 9:55:19 PM

Congratulations to the Colorado College Tigers as they advance to the Frozen Four after trailing Michigan 3-0. The Tigers mounted a spectacular comeback to win 4-3. The Tigers will face the Denver Pioneers, last year's NCAA Champions in the national semifinals on Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 7:26:06 PM

CMGI $1.92 -3.03% ... bid/offer $2.00 x $2.02 on Instinet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 7:07:45 PM

Starbucks (SBUX) $51.41 +0.29% ... slips to $51.00 on light after-hours volume. Company files Form 8-K with material change in managment. Form 8-K at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 6:50:36 PM

CGI Holding (AMEX:THK) $4.25 +7.59% Link ... PnF is near-term bearish after giving double bottom sell signal at $4.25. Vertical count bearish to $2.00 and it is going there if it breaks bullish support trend at $3.50. "sold to you at $4.25." Stock at $4.80 on Cramer interview. I'd be a seller.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 6:33:09 PM

Balanced Benchmark Fund ... #shares when rebalanced on 03/31/05. (+) signify more of the asset class was purchased, while (-) signify some of asset class was sold during rebalancing. Cost comes to $11,806.86, which is roughly equivalent to the 03/31/05 VALUE. Link Note: I've also re-benchmarked June Crude Oil (cl05m) from its 03/31/05 price.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 5:18:13 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 4:55:11 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 4:50:10 PM

Closing Internals at this Link Note: Today's 135 new lows at the NASDAQ is the largest since 03/29/05 (44:132) , but far fewer than the 235 found in August 2004.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 4:08:21 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... swing trade bullish stopped in shares of CMGI (CMGI) at $2.93. ($-0.14, or 6.76%). Day trade short the underlying shares of Corning (GLW) at $11.09, but was stopped out at $11.12 ($-0.03, -0.27%).

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:57:25 PM

I'll be taking off for several hours in the middle of the trading day tomorrow, but should be around for the Asia/Europe update and the open. See you then.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:55:44 PM

The OEX has erased its breakout from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:55:18 PM

The SOX looks as if it will likely close the day below the 200-sma again.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:50:18 PM

Today continues another day trading within the broadening formation on the daily chart. The OEX broke above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, but is dropping back down to them again.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 3:47:02 PM

Session high for MSFT here, +.58% and lagging the QQQQ which continues to hold near the top of its 36.55 bull flag range. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:43:52 PM

Advdec line is above zero now, at 68 as I type.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 3:41:30 PM

Semis and biotechs still lagging and need to get some juice going.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 3:40:13 PM

SOX finding a bid above 409, 38% yaer over year fib. This is good news for semis. COMP above 200 dma.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:40:07 PM

The OEX's daily chart shows fairly strong resistance from 561.34-563.45, on a daily closing basis, with more resistance above that, from 567.98-569.27. Without a daily close above that first zone listed, vulnerability to the 200-sma remains, at least according to the daily Keltner chart.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 3:35:23 PM

INTC back at 23, the 200 dma. MAY 22.50 call, bought Friday at 1.15, is now 1.15 at the ask after all the hoopla of today. Set a stop at .60.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:34:24 PM

A minimal OEX 15-minute close 15-minute 100/130-ema's and now the OEX attempts to move up toward the 560.75-ish upside target for the inverse H&S. A 15-minute Keltner resistance level currently lies at 561.48.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 3:34:35 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) 104.26 +0.20% ... updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link VIX.X 14.10 +0.07% ... DIA Most Active Options ... April $104 C (1,929:5,894), April $104 P (1,180:8,951), April $107 C (971:7,945), April $106 C (926:8,238)

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 3:27:09 PM

QQQQ 100-tick update at this Link testing flag resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:26:40 PM

The OEX again pushes above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Will it hold this time? The 15-minute Keltner chart labels this iffy, but not impossible.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:22:01 PM

The upside target for that OEX inverse H&S is about 560.75.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 3:17:57 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $53.71 +5.41% ... found buyers from $51.25 after The Wall Street Journal reported New York Attorney General Spitzer said company still has change to settle inquiries.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:15:01 PM

The OEX still tests the 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 3:11:42 PM

The 300 minute stochastic measuring the 30 min cycle is approaching overbought territory, still pointing steeply north, and the 60 min has yet to reach the midpoint of its range. Bears better hope that the current flag off the highs isn't a bull flag atop the right side of a bullish cup and handle formation. With the 30 min, 60 min and daily cycles all in gear to the upside, this is prime time for bulls. A break below 36.30 will be trouble for the 30 min upphase, while the 60 min channel bottom is at 36.20 support currently. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 3:11:29 PM

Today is more zooming around inside the broadening formation: Link The OEX is caught between the support of the 200-ema and -sma's and the resistance of the daily 100/130-ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 3:10:05 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 3:02:49 PM

AIG popped on the news from Spitzer's office to the effect that the A-G NY sees the possibility of a settlement with AIG, rising nearly 4 points from 51 to a high of 54.95, pulling back at 54.03 currently.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 3:02:28 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 2:59:02 PM

No sooner did I upload the 2:55 post than the OEX pushed above the 15-minutr 100/130-ema's, but it's still just testing so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 2:56:18 PM

May crude went out at 57, -.275 for the day. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 2:55:39 PM

So far, the OEX still finds resistance at its 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:54:01 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.57 -2.28% ....

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:52:35 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 197.66 -2.68% ... WEEKLY Pivot levels ... 192.29, 197.71, Piv= 200.70, 206.12, 209.11.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 2:50:39 PM

The OEX faces 15-minute Keltner resistance, with support below at about 558.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 2:50:15 PM

7200 tick SMA support rises to 36.30 QQQQ here. The short cycle is overbought and trending, flatlined at the top of its range. The 30 min channel will continue to point north with QQQ above 7200 tick SMA support. 36.40 is first intraday support, with former resistance at 36.45 currently being tested from above. Volume has picked up but is well below Friday's levels. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:49:45 PM

TRIN 0.98 -51% ... day traders will have to use their 5-MRT techniques today with DAILY Pivot levels skewed as they are.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:44:36 PM

VIX.X 14.36 ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:44:14 PM

QQQQ $36.49 +0.78% ....

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:43:45 PM

Corning (GLW) $11.15 +0.08% ... h/o/d

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:43:16 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $57.90 -0.66% (30-min. delayed) ... after test of DAILY Pivot ($57.80).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:41:17 PM

Here is why we rallied:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Semiconductor Industry Association said Monday that worldwide chip sales showed an almost 16% year-over-year improvement in February, with retail revenue remaining solid in the face of rising gas prices that typically hamper consumer spending...The SIA said February's chip sales totaled $18.1 billion, up 15.8 percent from the year-ago figure of $15.6 billion. February's results were down slightly from January's revised revenue figure of $18.4 billion. SIA officials said the overall results were encouraging, as February is a typically slow month in the chip sector, with many consumers having already bought many of their major chip-powered electronics products during the prior Christmas shopping season. In particular, microprocessor sales grew by 11% from February 2004, while sales in dynamic random-access memory have risen 36% and some specific circuits for wireless applications increased 53%. The group also said chip inventories will likely come in at $700 million for the recently completed first quarter, down from $1.6 billion in the third quarter of 2004. The SIA said such figures suggest that excess inventories are not a factor in current industry sales. Doug Andrey, an SIA analyst, added

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:38:58 PM

If the DOW could close above 10434 it would be a major turn around for bulls. COMP 1993 of course, would be th eicing on the cake. AD line improving, but still negative.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 2:38:10 PM

The RLX is still leading the way for the OEX, as it did earlier, now having already charged through its 100/130-ema's. Like the OEX, it is still mired within its recent consolidation pattern, however, topped by the 30- and 50-sma's.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:37:12 PM

If we could all be as forgiving as the pope was, there would be no wars.
By SUZAN FRASER, Associated Press Writer ANKARA, Turkey - Mehmet Ali Agca, who shot and seriously wounded Pope John Paul II in 1981, said from his Turkish prison Monday that he was mourning the death of his "spiritual brother" and wanted to attend his funeral.
The pope, who died Saturday, met with Agca in an Italian prison in 1983 and forgave him for the shooting. The pontiff had also received Agca's relatives several times in recent years, meeting his mother in 1987 and his brother in 1997.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 2:36:50 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 2:33:52 PM

The OEX still pauses beneath the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 559.41 and 559.85, respectively.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:33:36 PM

AD line is still negative. This is not quite right. Stand by.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:32:04 PM

DOW is finding resistance at 200 ema. Pullback time now.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:31:24 PM

INTC 23.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:31:51 PM

Corning (GLW) $11.12 -0.17% .... steady... DAILY Pivot at $11.18.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 2:31:21 PM

Session highs again, with QQQQ breaking above by a penny as the 30 min channel rises higher. The upside keltner violation is usually bearish, except for when it's in line with the oscillator direction and the price holds near the highs after the initial break. In this case, the bounce came from above 36.30 support, after a shallow pullback. Confluence resistance at 36.45 is in play now, above which 36.55. QQQQ has now reversed all of Friday's losses from the 11AM decline.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:30:41 PM

They rotated HEAVILY into NQ. Very bulish.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:30:39 PM

QQQQ $36.46 +0.74% ... session high! Could get some short covering action now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:29:54 PM

DIA $104.27 +0.21% ... session high.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:29:48 PM

DOW above 200 day ema and that is the short covering here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:29:31 PM

VIX.X 14.35 +1.84% ... session low

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:29:14 PM

Bears are getting toasted. Sorry, Mark...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:28:54 PM

Most Actives .... QQQQ $36.37 +0.46%, AIG $53.90 +5.71%, SPY $117.42 (unch), LU $2.64 -2.58%, MSFT $24.16 +0.16%, INTC $22.93 -0.34%, CSCO $17.63 -0.39%, ORCL $12.67 +1.11%, ELN $3.76 +11.24%, SIRI $5.44 -2.15%, JDSU $1.59 -1.86%, MWD $58.91 +3.58%

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2005 2:28:13 PM

Jeff, I traded QQQ 36.36 all last year. January opening day 2004 close and it is a benchmark. Long above, short below.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:25:02 PM

QQQQ $36.36

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:24:43 PM

Bearish day trade stop alert ... for Corning (GLW) $11.12

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:23:38 PM

PHF $8.96 +0.78% ... AMEX narrowing at $8.91 (2000) x $8.95 (800). DAILY Pivot $8.89

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 2:22:35 PM

I'm not so sure that the RLX has broken above the neckline for its inverse H&S. It's better formed than the OEX's appeared to be, with the ascending neckline therefore easier to see. Makes me wonder a bit about the validity of the OEX's breakout. The TRAN is just now testing its previous HOD and not looking particularly strong as it does. The OEX has passed some tests in the forms of 15-minute closes above particular MA's or Keltner lines, but I'm as leery of follow-through potential to the upside as I was of follow-through to the downside. This action within a broadening zone is just difficult to gauge.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:20:47 PM

QQQQ $36.36 +0.44% ... now bound between WEEKLY Piv and DAILY Piv. Bullish move would push to session high and bulls could stage rally to the close. Goooooood pressure point here. Who will flinch?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 2:18:02 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:16:01 PM

Corning (GLW) 11.09

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 2:14:08 PM

The neckline for the OEX's inverse H&S was probably just under 558, at about 557.80, so the OEX is consolidating just above the breakout level above that neckline. The upside target would be about 560.75, if met. The 7-minute Keltner chart, a chart that does often have some relevance on the OEX's behavior, shows that the OEX is also doing battle with potential Keltner resistance at about 559.26, with the HOD having pierced this resistance before the OEX fell back slightly.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:13:24 PM

VIX.X 14.39 +2.12% ... testing session lows now. DIA $104.16 +0.10% ... just off session/afternoon high of $104.29.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:12:19 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 2:10:41 PM

Bonds have declined, with TNX pulling up to just south of unchanged here, -.4 bps at 4.445%. QQQQ is holding just off its 36.41 high, pulling back from the upper Keltner band violation on the 30 and 60 min channels.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 2:10:24 PM

The OEX was stopped at the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 559.41 and 559.86.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 2:05:32 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 2:01:45 PM

The move just broke upside keltner resistance. It should be bullish if QQQQ can hold above 36.30 for any pullback.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 1:59:27 PM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel shows: The OEX is currently testing 15-minute Keltner resistance from 558.22 to the current level, with a 15-minute close above that resistance possible during this period. Next resistance is at 559.75.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:58:43 PM

VIX.X 14.50 +2.90% .... DIA $104.16 +0.10% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 1:57:42 PM

QQQQ coming in for a retest of the session highs here: Link . Bulls need to break or hold close to the 36.30 area to turn those channels up for a change.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:57:19 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for Corning (GLW) $11.08 -0.53% ... to $11.12.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 1:56:24 PM

The OEX has been testing the previous HOD, having completed a first 15-minute close above the 15-minute 21-ema since Friday morning. Just above the previous HOD as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:54:13 PM

CMGI Inc. (CMGI) $1.92 -3.03 ... DAILY S1

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:53:40 PM

eBay (EBAY) $37.83 +2.05% ... high of day and DAILY R1 here.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 1:45:27 PM

The failure to confirm the triangle breakdown by reaching a new LOD was telling, followed quickly by buying that's sending the OEX up to test the top of the symmetrical triangle, with that test going on at the OEX's current 557.80 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 1:45:25 PM

QQQQ breaking north out of the pennant apex, but on light volume. Link

Mark Davis : 4/4/2005 1:44:17 PM

Linda if that was your stop-running push it was to the upside

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:41:09 PM

VIX.X 14.66 +4.04% .... DIA $103.79 -0.24% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 1:36:24 PM

Upper pennant resistance got tested for QQQQ but did not break. May silver is printing a session high here at 7.04, +.53%. HUI and XAU still solidly in the red, however, -2.59% and -1.86% respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:35:35 PM

DIA $103.80 ... lifting from $103.60.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:35:02 PM

Little buy program just a second ago.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:33:42 PM

No buy/sell program premiums so far today. Not even at the opening tick.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 1:32:13 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link testing lower pennant support above channel support of 36.01-.03.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:30:23 PM

Corning (GLW) $11.07 -0.62% ... post-profile h/l has been $11.13-$11.04

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 1:30:01 PM

No new LOD for the OEX as yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:29:31 PM

VIX.X 14.74 +4.61% .... steady... steady...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 1:26:42 PM

May crude is back to the 58 level, currently up 1.13% at 57.925. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:26:22 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.60 -0.43% ... WEEKLY S1 just below at $103.32.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:31:14 PM

VIX.X 14.73 +4.54% ... per Linda's 01:21:26. WEEKLY R1 just ahead at 14.87. DAILY R1 right here (14.71)

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:23:39 PM

1,000 each at $8.93, then $8.96 for PHF. Offer now H/O/D $8.98 (2,800 AMEX)

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 1:22:21 PM

The OEX broke down out of the symmetrical triangle, and now is bouncing right up to retest the resistance. Bears want to see a rollover now.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 1:21:26 PM

VIX breaking out?

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 1:20:21 PM

I have long, long had a S/R band on one version of an OEX daily chart from 555.50 to 562.50. I don't remember why I first put it on my charts, but I do know that it had come from a study of monthly charts, and that this zone has come into play over and over since late last year. In October, the OEX broke up through the lower part of this zone, hesitated a while and then moved up from it. In December, the OEX came back down nearly to that lower end of this band before moving up again. And now it's been testing it again. It's possible to see a potential H&S on the daily chart now, with a neckline at about that level, and with a right shoulder now lacking. In the TRAN at least, we've seen a number of inverse H&S's and regular H&S's just do away with the right-shoulder building exercise. I've been wondering lately if, now that almost all market participants now recognize H&S's, there's not a greater tendency to bail out without the whole process of the last-to-know participants sending prices up into the right shoulder. However, even with that sometimes forget-the-right-shoulder mentality, it must be noted that the OEX sits on potential support from various sources. Bears should be aware of the bounce potential while still watching for a breakdown.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:21:11 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.57 -0.46% ... breadth negative at 22:8. PG $53.61 +1.90%, JNJ $67.79 +1.40% with UTX $99.56 -1.36%, PFE $25.81 -1.30%, BA $58.05 -1.25%, MO $64.38 -1.22%, AA $29.93 -1.15%, DD $50.30 -1.04%, INTC $22.77 -1.04%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:17:55 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) slips to low of session. Down 2.4 bp at 4.427%. PHF $8.90 +0.11% ... $8.90 x $8.93 Analysis .... more "defensive" at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 1:17:04 PM

Session high for ten year bonds here, TNX now down 2.4 bps, but QQQQ is diving back to test the previous low. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 1:11:00 PM

The OEX is coming down to retest the support of its symmetrical triangle visible now on its 15-minute chart. Since this triangle forms after a steep drop, it may be a continuation pattern ahead of another drop. The fly in the ointment here is the 200-sma just below, of course, as well as the fact that all of this is occurring within a broadening formation in which no chart development should be given too much trust. Those who want to play the break, if one should occur, first want to see a new LOD soon after the breakdown and then a quick move below the 3/29 LOD at 555.05, and then should definitely have profit protecting plans in place for the 553.77-554 level, with 553.77 being the 200-sma. Not much downside to get a play working before the 200-sma would be hit, is it? The bottom of the broadening formation is now at about 553, and that's another level from which a bounce might be mounted, so any in bearish positions should be made before that level is tested, too, if it is.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:10:17 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 1:06:23 PM

The t-bill auction results are in- the 6 month bills generated a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.24 on 16B accepted, with a high rate of 3.035%. The 3 month auction generated 2.42 bids tendered for each accepted on a total of 18B accepted, with a high rate of 2.735%. Currently, the ten year yield is down 1.6 bps at 4.435%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 1:02:01 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 1:00:03 PM

Really interesting chart, Tab, in your 12:49 post. I usually think of weekly MA crosses as occurring rather late into the movement, but your comparison of VIX MA crosses to SPX movements didn't show the 2002 VIX MA cross coming late, ahead of the SPX move higher, but rather preceding it. Of course, these are just a couple of instances here, but if MA cross is just as telling this time, the information could be ominous in its predictions for SPX behavior, couldn't it?

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 12:54:39 PM

We're having one of those coiling kinds of days. Whether that's a valid but messy inverse H&S building on the OEX or not, it is also perhaps a symmetrical triangle at the bottom of the decline, narrowing now toward its apex, with top resistance at about 557.90 and bottom support at about 556.20.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 12:50:36 PM

Still no OEX 15-minute close above the 21-ema yet.

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2005 12:49:49 PM

Here's an interesting chart using the $VIX weekly 10 and 40 moving averages as a back drop to the $SPX. Not sure how much weight this carries, just found it interesting. Comments welcomed. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 12:48:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2005 12:46:39 PM

Home Dept (HD) Testing support/resistance level. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 12:45:46 PM

Session high for ZN bonds here at 109 3/4, with TNX down 2 bps at 4.431% now. Updated daily chart at this Link with treasury auction results due in approx. 20 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 12:39:59 PM

Back to find QQQQ testing 7200 tick SMA resistance from below after bouncing from a higher low at 36.10. The short cycle is trying to turn up, and a break of 36.20 should do it. From here, a run through the session highs would provide the higher high and higher low needed to restore a 30 and 60 min cycle upturn. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 12:38:44 PM

The OEX is now coming up to retest the 15-minute 21-ema, an average that has been stopping it on 15-minute closes since Friday afternoon. That average is at 557.31, with the OEX currently at 557.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 12:31:30 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 12:31:12 PM

Most Actives .... QQQQ $36.15 0.13%, SPY $116.93 -0.42%, LU $2.61 -3.32%, AIG $51.04 +0.17%, INTC $22.80 -0.91%, MSFT $24.05 -0.24%, ORCL $12.60 +0.55%, CSCO $17.56 -0.79%, ELN $3.62 +7.10%, JDSU $1.57 -2.48%, SIRI $5.40 -2.87%, CVX $57.64 -2.81%

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 12:27:35 PM

The OEX is testing the right-shoulder level for its messy potential inverse H&S.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 12:25:14 PM

Ten year notes continue to drift higher, ZN futures printing a session high here at 109 23/32, with TNX down 1.4 bps at 4.437%. I expect the auction results at 1PM to get things moving again. Meanwhile, QQQQ has drifted through 7200 tick SMA support and is leading the short cycle and 30 min channel lower. If this is an accumulation phase along the bottom, the buyers are doing a great job of concealing their intentions- this latest failure feels quite bearish. Whether this decline ends at a higher or lower low against the prior 36.03 low will be key.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 12:20:33 PM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) $58.90 +1.04% (30-min. delayed) ... just above my 80.9% fitted retracement ($58.63) .... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $51.51, $54.93, Piv= $56.81, $60.23, $62.11.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 12:13:01 PM

Bearish day trade short alert ... for Corning (GLW) $11.09 -0.44% here, stop $11.15, target $10.94.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 12:12:05 PM

An OEX drop much below 556 would invalidate the potential inverse H&S.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 12:10:05 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 12:09:46 PM

News from my forex source includes tanker tracker Petrologistics' report that March production by OPEX countries and Iraq may have risen by 100,000 barrels per day. Saudi shipments fell. As one of the other writers notes, both the Nigerian government and oil unions in that country have warned that strikes might start next week.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 12:07:15 PM

QQQQ volume is much lighter than Friday's huge 143.9M shares, but still better than at other lulls we've seen recently, just about to cross 50M shares. The put to call ratio is high, above 1.0 for the past hour and above .95 for the 1st hour. The 60 min cycle, having run lower all Friday and this morning, is showing a slight uptick from oversold, but the bounce is taking its sweet time. A break above 36.35 should be ebnough to resolve the uncertainty to the upside- or, below the session low, to the downside. The intraday cycles continue to favor a bounce, but if it doesn't happen soon, this sideways chop will cause the intraday cycles to begin trending.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 12:02:19 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 12:01:05 PM

I can see the possibility that some indices are trying to form inverse H&S's at the bottom of their drops, including the OEX, but many are rather roughly formed.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 11:54:46 AM

200-ema resistance and 200-sma support: that pretty well describes the dilemma for OEX traders studying the charts.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 11:51:54 AM

The RLX is getting dragged back below its 15-minute 21-ema again. It may not be leading anything anywhere if this keeps up. Ditto with the TRAN.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:51:10 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.84 -0.20% ... its April "Max Pain Theory" is currently tabulated at $106 in $1 increments. Price weighted components and their "Max Pain" and increments at this Link Note: DJX "Max Pain" is $106 and $1 increments.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 11:48:28 AM

Crude oil is back up to 57.80, +.92% or .525. Ten year bonds remain strong, however, TNX currently -1.5 bps at 4.436%. We await the results of today's 3-month and 6-month treasury bill auctions to be posted just after 1PM.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 11:41:54 AM

QQQQ testing 7200 tick SMA support here. A failure at these levels will throw the daily cycle buy signal from last week into doubt- with only a few days to the upphase, a bull trap is far from out of the question. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 11:40:09 AM

Still no 15-minute OEX close above the 15-minute 21-ema, currently at 557.61. The RLX and TRAN have begun producing 15-minute closes above these averages. Are they leading the way higher? I'm not finding any other indices maintaining values above this MA this morning, although I of course have not scanned them all. The BIX, Nasdaq, SOX, and SPX are some of the others I've scanned.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 11:32:52 AM

Today, for the third time this month, the VIX has been testing the 1/24 high of 14.72. The VIX is pulling back slightly from that high. Strange to think of VIX values in the 14.50 level as being high, isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:27:50 AM

April Max Pain Theory levels .... Cendant (CD) $20.40 +0.44% ($22.50), Corning (GLW) $11.04 -0.89% ($12.50), SMH $31.98 -0.31% ($32.50), Apple Computer (AAPL) $40.61 -0.68% ($30.00), Maverick Tube (MVK) $33.35 +1.36% ($30.00), SanDisk (SNDK) $27.98 +0.75% ($25.00) Note: April expiration is next Fiday 04/15/05. Also Income Tax Deadline. According to Stock Trader's Almanac, Dow up 7 of last 8 years with 2001 the lone loser.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 11:22:07 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link . The 30 min cycle should continue to strengthen and convert the 60 min cycle if price holds above the 36.14 level (7200 tick SMA and declining trendline support).

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 11:17:54 AM

Here's the reason I've been watching the 15-minute 21-ema, as possible resistance. It's the red MA on this chart: Link Note the tentative CCI move above zero. That will turn from a positive into a negative, though, if CCI moves back below zero, since it will then be a zero-line rejection.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:17:19 AM

QQQQ $36.21 +0.02% ... just off session high of $36.31. Bulls tentative/patient below WEEKLY Pivot. Bears remain confident. PHF $8.93 +0.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:11:39 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Friday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 11:07:32 AM

The OEX did complete a 15-minute close above the Keltner channel line needed to stabilize its smallest Keltner channel. It's above the 200-ema. Now it needs to close this period above the 15-minute 21-ema at 557.74 to further show a first inclination of a change in short-term trend. Remember though, that the OEX remains within its broadening formation, and that trading becomes more volatile as it moves further out in that broadening formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 11:06:32 AM

Session low here for Nymex crude at 57.075.

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2005 11:04:07 AM

EUR/USD Bouncing off of 200-ema of 1.2822.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 11:02:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 11:02:09 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update Link challenging the early morning highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:59:20 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 345.46 -0.82% ... didn't get first tick until 10:00-10:05 AM EDT.

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2005 12:13:46 PM

MURPHY OIL (MUR) After a Long Legged Doji candle last week Murphy Oil has had a nice pop up, targeting $104/$105 near top of descending channel. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:58:10 AM

Nymex crude is holding at a .175 gain at 57.45, off a record high of 58.275 this morning. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:57:20 AM

The Dow needs to close this 15-minute period above the Keltner line currently at 10,386.68 to stabilize its smallest Keltner channel. It's having a little difficulty with that resistance after having punched through during the 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:55:12 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) ... with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link where we tie in "junk bond" and PHF. From here... "think equities" and your pivot levels based on future price action of PHF.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:51:15 AM

QQQQ managed to hold the 7200 tick SMA for the retest from above m and is now breaking the prior bounce high and trying to regain 36.20 resistance. This remains a weak picture given how long the intraday upphases are taking to get in gear, but at least the bottom didn't drop out, with the current intraday low 36.03. If bulls can hold above the 7200 tick SMA, the bulls should begin to return.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:47:59 AM

So far, as of the last 15-minute period just completed, the TRAN, Dow and OEX are all failing to produce 15-minute closes above the Keltner line needed to stabilize the smallest Keltner channels on their charts, to keep them from continuing to point lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:40:46 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:39:57 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.93 +0.44% ... here's a different look at PHF and "junk" where I've tabulated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement levels. I'll follow with the benchmark 10-year in a minute. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:39:14 AM

Remember, that for the OEX, at least, any move higher is just a move up through the difficult-to-trade broadening formation.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:38:40 AM

OEX 200-ema, which has shown some relevance in recent trading is at 557.29. The 15-minute 21-ema is at 557.80, so we can expect some resistance in that zone from those. Bulls want to see sustained values above 558, then.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:36:47 AM

Strong bounce on the RLX, too, although it's not yet above its 15-minute 21-ema at 423.92. It's at 422.88 as I type, still rising.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:35:30 AM

QQQQ is ticking above 7200 tick SMA resistance here for the first time today. Bulls need to hold north of 36.12 to turn the 30 min cycle channel back up.

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2005 10:32:33 AM

$SOX Followup to 3/29 11:33AM post were I projected a 400 downside target on the SOXX. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:31:55 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Supreme Court on Monday ruled that creditors may not seize Individual Retirement Accounts when people file for bankruptcy, giving protection to a nest egg relied upon by millions of Americans.

Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:31:22 AM

The 15-minute 21-pma's are coming into play as resistance for some indices, or did both Friday afternoon and this morning. For the OEX, that average is at 557.91; the TRAN, at 3685.20; the RLX, at 423.79; and the Dow, at 10,409.66.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:28:58 AM

Headline:

10:27am SUPREME COURT: IRAS CAN BE SHIELDED FROM CREDITORS - AP

Looking for the full story and will post it when located.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:28:26 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:27:24 AM

Gold and silver remain weak, -2.60 at 425.70 and -.063 at a session low of 6.94, with HUI slammed for 2.56% to a low of 197.91, XAU -1.88% at 92.24.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:23:27 AM

The RLX low from 3/24 was 420.82. The RLX is at 421.26 as I type, with a low of 421 so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:22:08 AM

The short cycle downphases have reached oversold territory, with the 30 and 60 min channels downticking now. QQQQ has broken Friday's low, and bulls here are rapidly running out of time to leverage the oversold readings from Friday's close. The daily cycle oscillators are losing their upthrust, and a 30 min cycle whipsaw to the downside would be extremely bearish. An immediate bounce off the short cycle oversold readings could restore the upside bias from Friday's close and set the current lows up as a throwunder. But failing that, and very soon, even the intraday bulls are in hot water. Below 35.95-36, next nearest confluence, we'll have a bearish trending move.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:22:14 AM

Altair Nanotech (ALTI) $4.18 +16.75% ... signs agreement with Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. Story at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:21:29 AM

RLX easing below its 200-sma. This is still potential bounce territory, but market bulls of any stripe don't want to see the RLX keel over here.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:20:18 AM

The TRAN is now bouncing from that 15-minute support I mentioned earlier, up to test the Keltner resistance now at 3679.49. Without a 15-minute close above that line, the TRAN's smallest Keltner channel will continue to turn lower. The TRAN is at 3673.55 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:18:48 AM

The RLX tests its 200-sma, only about $0.30 above it now. That average is at 421.81, with the RLX at 422.09 and dropping.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:17:14 AM

Bullish swing trade stopped in shares of CMGI (CMGI) $1.90 -4.04% at $1.93.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:15:49 AM

The OEX's support softens on the 15-minute Keltner chart. The Dow's and TRAN's performance did prove somewhat prophetic, which was one reason I had looked at them.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:15:28 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2005 10:14:42 AM

Sony (SNE) Back on 3/28 11:09AM mentioned that Sony was a possible short around $41. Sony continues it's delcine. Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:14:11 AM

As just one bit of anecdotal evidence concerning tech-related jobs, I've been following a group of guys who graduated in the early to mid 90's from prestigious schools, all with advanced degrees in software engineering or development. First, they were courted all over the country and could have had any job they wanted, with high salaries and perks. For a while a few years ago, all 6-8 of them had lost their jobs, some multiple jobs. Then, as spending picked up a bit, a few got jobs, but at lower pay and with fewer perks. Currently, all are employed and most have advanced again. One heads a department that has been gaining new contracts and needs to hire two new employees, which he can't find. He lost another to a head hunter last week. He's spending a majority of his time currently just trying to fill staffing needs. This is in Austin.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:11:30 AM

Bonds are back to positive, TNX down .1 bps at 4.45%. Bouncing along declining 60 min channel support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:10:09 AM

VIX.X 14.59 +3.54% ... Daily Pivot Levels ... 12.35, 13.25, Piv= 13.82, 14.71, 15.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 10:08:03 AM

Session lows across the board here. 30 min channel support drops to 36.00 QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:07:55 AM

The OEX heads down to test a Keltner configuration of support that both the TRAN and the Dow have broken through, yet that support still looks relatively firm on the OEX. It's from 556.12 to 556.49. Not sure whether to expect it to hold, as the chart suggests it might, or to break, as the TRAN and Dow suggest it could.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:05:45 AM

The TRAN is at 15-minute support and may bounce, but that supporting line descends sharply, so this support is tentative at best. The TRAN's smallest channel on this chart will continue pointing lower as long as the TRAN continues 15-minute closes beneath 3681.42.

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2005 10:05:13 AM

EUR/USD Target 1.2728 Link

GLD, target nearterm $42. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:04:09 AM

The Dow sometimes adheres rather well to its 15-minute Keltner channel's support and resistance. Here's that that shows: There's a vulnerability to 10,343.75, with continued 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 10,396.38. On 15-minute closes above that line, the breakdown signal is erased.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:03:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:01:35 AM

The OEX tests Keltner support on the 15-minute chart and now approaches Friday's low of 556.28, although it's not there yet. Keltner support could hold it up ahead of a touch of Friday's low.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 10:00:12 AM

The OEX is moving lower again, with 15-minute Keltner support at 556.09-556.53.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 10:33:26 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.73 -0.30% ... edges below Friday's low. Should trade WEEKLY S1 from here. IF ... PHF above $9.10, would go long the DIA at WEEKLY S1.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 9:58:53 AM

The Fed has announced a 6.25B overnight repo replacing 5.75B expiring for a 500M net add.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 9:57:07 AM

The OEX might have broken below the likely bear flag's support, but it's not falling away far after it's done so. Investors appear reluctant so far to send it lower, probably due to that 200-sma below at 553.77. That's a tricky place to enter a new short or stay in a current one.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 9:55:05 AM

The US Dollar Index has broken Friday's high Link , with currencies, metals and equities weak this morning.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 9:53:40 AM

The RLX again tests its 200-sma and -ema this morning, currently between the two. Sustained trading below the 200-sma would not be a good thing for the non-tech indices, with the 200-sma currently at 421.81 and the RLX currently at 423.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 9:51:50 AM

Session lows again for the Dow futures with QQQQ pulling lower and holding below the 7200 tick SMA at 36.20. The failure just now had the 30 min cycle channel bottom drop to the 36.08 where it joins the 60 min bottom. A failure to bounce in the next 10 minutes will jeopardize the weak 30 min cycle upphase from Friday's close.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 9:47:34 AM

So far, the 15-minute 21-ema has been holding back the OEX today, just as it did Friday afternoon. There's a minimal break of the supposed bear flag's support, but the OEX is even now trying to jump back above that support. Not sure it will be successful. Fairly firm 15-minute Keltner support tries to converge at 556.30-556.62.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 9:45:53 AM

QQQQ advanced there as the Dow futures made a new lows, currently up to a 1 cent loss.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 9:44:43 AM

Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.78 -1.11% ... declares monthly dividend of $0.1261 per share. The announcement reflects a reduction in the monthly dividend. The dividend will be paid on 04/08/05 to shareholders of record on 04/11/05. The ex-dividend date is 04/07/05.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 9:43:02 AM

The TRAN drops to the convering 100- and 50-sma's again this morning. These averages have been supporting the TRAN for a week, so a sustained break through them would signal a change for the TRAN. They're at 3675.95 and 3677.24, respectively, with the TRAN at 3675.44.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 9:41:00 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart at this Link with QQQQ turning the short cycle lower here on a retest of the morning lows.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 9:40:16 AM

Royal Dutch/Shell Group (RD) (SC) ... Goldman Sachs cutting to "underperform" from "in line." While firm expects the shares to remain well supported by a technical squeeze ahead of index re-weighting due in July, it things investors should use the technical strength as a selling opportunity, saying the shares could come under pressure in second half of '05.

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2005 9:41:07 AM

$NDX/$NASI One of the best indicators that I use on market direction has been the Summation Index or $NASI. It has not yet given a reversal signal, but is at levels where a buy reversal signals have occured. Link

$MID Similarities to that of the $SPX chart. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 9:36:40 AM

The OEX is doing battle with the 15-minute 21-ema at 558.57, with this average having stopped it late Friday afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 9:36:10 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $52.00 +2.06% ... upgraded at Smith Barney and Morgan Stanley.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 9:34:47 AM

QQQQ has 30 and 60 min channel support lined up from 36.07-36.10, a few ticks below Friday's lows. Intraday bulls need to see these levels hold for any retested.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 9:34:32 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $103.98 -0.06% ... with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 9:31:46 AM

The OEX does bounce. The 15-minute Keltner chart shows that next resistance will likely converge near 559.75-560.70.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 9:30:43 AM

The OEX opens at the 200-ema.

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2005 9:30:17 AM

$SPX 1 year chart showing short term rally and then a possible decline? Link

SPX 6 year weekly. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 9:24:31 AM

Unocal (UCL) $64.35 ... lower at $60.40 after agreeing to be bought by ChevronTexaco (CVX) $59.31 for about $16.4 billion in cash and stock. Shares of ChevronTexaco (CVX) are marked lower at $58.74. ChevronTexaco expects oil-equivalent production from the combined portfolios during 2006 to average about 3 million barrels per day. Unocal's 1.75 billion barrels of oil-equivalent proved reserves would increase ChevronTexaco's reserve base as of the end of 2004 by about 15%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2005 9:16:58 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.53 and set for program selling at $+1.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 9:15:06 AM

Ten year bond futures have eased off their lows and are back to unchanged at 109 17/32, with TNX up 0.7 bps at 4.458%. Updated daily TNX chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 9:02:36 AM

Session low for euro futures at 1.2887, -.32%, and gold at 427.10, -.28%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 8:52:30 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle is still showing an uptick from Friday afternoon, despite this morning's dive to Friday's low. The 60 min cycle is still in a downphase, but has flattened, while the daily cycle remains in an upphase. A break through Friday's low would abort the 30 min cycle upturn and likely stall the daily cycle upphase. But as on Friday, the short cycle and intraday bias remains to the upside.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 8:36:45 AM

Last week, the OEX moved further out within its broadening formation and closed the week within that formation: Link In my opinion, all that was accomplished last week was a validation of the tendency to see more volatility as broadening formations broaden. Until the OEX breaks out one direction or the other, trading is likely to become even more difficult to gauge.

Many other indices remained mired in consolidation patterns, too. Currently, an OEX upside breakout would be constituted by a move above about 566.60-566.80. That upside breakout would immediately be met by a river of MA's from 568-570 and by historical S/R at that level, too. I'm concerned about the possibility of limited upside as the OEX might move into a right shoulder for the potential H&S formation on its daily chart, then flatten for a while before deciding whether to invalidate the formation by rising further or to round down and confirm the formation.

A downside breakout of the broadening formation would be constituted by a move below 553.50, which would take the OEX below the 200-sma, corroborating a downside breakout below the 200-sma. It would be risky to enter a new bearish trade just ahead of a test of both those levels of potential support, but if there should be an OEX bounce and if internals should be bearish, traders could look for a bounce-and-rollover entry. Just remember how difficult it is to maneuver within a broadening formation and keep your trading account intact. As I type, a bounce does not look like the most likely event at the opening.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 8:31:08 AM

Session lows for gold at 427.50 and QQQQ -.06 at 36.14.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 8:24:05 AM

Session high for Nymex crude at 58.25, +1.75%, a new (not adjusted for inflation) record high.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2005 7:57:18 AM

Good morning. Crude costs are the major story this morning. The Nikkei declined under the weight of those costs, although other Asian markets were mixed. European markets head lower, too. Our futures are negative, having begun tumbling about 6:30. As of 7:15 EST, gold was 428.00, and as of 7:20, crude was $59.11. This weekend, OPEC's president reportedly offered that OPEC could increase its quota by 500,000 barrels a day as early in May and then increase it by the same amount in the third quarter, with the aim being to keep prices low enough to keep from stifling economic growth. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped lower in early trading and coiled throughout the day. It closed lower by 56.09 points or 0.48%, at 11,667.54. Higher crude costs hurt sentiment. Oil-related stocks rose. In stock-specific news, Matsushita Electric Industrial and South Korea's LG Electronics have reportedly agreed to a settlement on a patent dispute involving plasma display panels.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.15%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.06%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.66%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.16. China's Shanghai Composite declined 1.68%. China has reportedly stood up against Australian miner BHP Billiton's demand for a freight premium on iron ore, but the miner also reportedly isn't backing down, so this might be one trade battle to watch in the coming days.

Most European markets trade lower. The EU Commission trimmed its GDP growth projections for 2005 and 2006 to 1.6% and 2.1% respectively, down from the previous 2.0% and 2.2%. Country-by-country breakdowns peg Germany as the straggler again. In this spring economic projection, the EU Commission used a $50.9 per barrel cost of crude to make computations. This report pegged economic risks as weighted to the downside, and cited inflation expectations of 1.9% for this year. One source said this brings the EU Commissions forecasts in line with those of the ECB, and so therefore is not a controversial report.

Miners gain in the U.K. Oil and gas giant BP gave first quarter projections, including a drop in refining margins quarter over quarter, citing the currency impact as one reason, but gained after the report. A report said that profitability among British private non-financial companies stood at 13.4% in Q4, down slightly from the previous quarter's 13.5%, but bringing 2004 profitability up 13.4% as compared to 12.8% for the previous year.

Higher oil prices pressured equities in Europe, too, but helped Royal Dutch/Shell Group to an early gain despite a downgrade to an underperform rating by Goldman Sachs. Many automakers declined, reacting to those higher crude prices. March sales figures had been released Friday, with Porsche Cars North America and DaimlerChrysler seeing rises in U.S. sales and BMW and Audi seeing declines over last year's levels. DaimlerChrysler announced a new chief operating officer. M&A activity has been noted among Italian telecommunications companies.

As of 7:53 EST, the FTSE 100 was down 33.50 points or 0.68%, to 4,880.50. The CAC 40 was down 40.43 points or 0.99%, to 4,039.65. The DAX was down 44.37 points or 1.01%, to 4,329.16.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/4/2005 7:40:41 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1174, NQ 1475, YM 10406 and QQQQ -.01 at 36.19. Gold is down .30 at 428, silver -.036 at 6.967, ten year notes -.1562 at 109 3/8, and crude oil is up .90 to 58.175.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Market Monitor Archives