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Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:29:08 AM

e-mini S&P (es05m) up 0.50, or +0.04% at 1,186.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:49:04 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.59 -0.22% is down 0.19. June Gold (gc05m) is up $0.80, or 0.18% at $427.40.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:46:29 AM

June Crude Oil (cl05m) down $0.20, or -0.35% at $56.90, but just above its WEEKLY Pivot of $56.81. Wednesday's low so far has been $56.65.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:27:42 AM

NDX stocks that were bought the most during Tuesday's buy programs were YHOO, PIXR, MEDI, NXTL, CHIR, CTSH, COST, TEVA, PDCO.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:26:39 AM

OEX Stocks that were bought the most during Tuesday's buy programs were HCA, MEDI, RTN, NXTL, OMX, GD, JNJ, DELL, MSFT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:25:11 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.56 and set for program selling at $+1.82.

OI Technical Staff : 4/5/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 6:37:50 PM

Nope... the "sold to you" level for the DIA (see 03/22/05 at 06:35:05 PM EST) was $105.40.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 6:33:52 PM

$104.47...$104.47....$104.47 ... why does that look familiar?

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 6:30:55 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 6:02:58 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.47 +0.99% ... updated intra-day chart with "sell program premium" tie at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 6:01:59 PM

Hey... that afternoon "dip" in MSFT to $24.33, that came on that sell program. Hmmmm... earlier today I though buy program set up for MSFT to trade $24.50 and bugger pegged it. While we never got "short" at $24.55, that sell program low was $24.33 and a penny within my day trader short target of $24.34. Might develop a range tomorrow for MSFT, where break of range signals further direction. Might need it with EIA data due out tomorrow. Things can get crazy.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 5:47:08 PM

Boy... you look around at some stocks and you can see that sell program can't you? DIVERGENCE would be stocks that DON'T show the sell program.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 5:45:27 PM

The option action in Corning (GLW) didn't come until 02:50-02:55 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 5:41:06 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) intra-day observations made at this Link and tie with earlier Market Monitor observations and tonight's after-hours block trades being billed out at "net $118.17."

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 5:42:59 PM

Large Block(s) Alert ... seeing two (2) 500,000 share blocks of SPY printed at 04:42:51 and 04:43:22 at $118.17. Also see 2,000,000 blocked at 04:33:57 at $118.17. Might well be pre-expiration positioning. Will look for $118.17 in Pivot Matrix.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 5:12:34 PM

Closing Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 5:00:54 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 4:44:46 PM

Corning (GLW) suspicious option action today. 2,000 contracts traded in the April $10 puts (GLW-PB) at the offer of $0.05 (OI 102), while 2,005 traded in the Aug. $10 Puts (GLW-TB) (OI 14,411). I say "suspicious" as the action in the April $10 Puts looks to be the OPENING of a position with OI just 102. Confusing to me is the selling at the BID (maybe large put buyer getting good execution from market maker for size, but have to assume seller). I can't figure out why somebody would be buying April $10 puts so close to expiration. Maybe market maker using the August $10's as "hedge" against buyer in the April $10s?

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 4:34:57 PM

palmOne (PLMO) $24.72 -2.63% ... lower at $24.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 4:30:33 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $41.89 +1.93% ... steady at $41.87.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 4:28:47 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $74.40 -0.99% ... getting "rammed" lower at $74.40. QQQQ $36.56 +0.27% ... ticking higher at $36.60.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 4:16:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... Day trade short shares of Corn Products (CPO) at $21.31, but closed out well shy of target at $20.83. ($0.48, or +2.25%). Stopped out of the eight (8) bearish puts in Corning GLW Aug. $10 Puts (GLW TB) at the bid of $0.25. Five (5) ($-0.35, or -58.33) and three (3) ($-0.15, or -37.50%).

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 4:00:56 PM

Corning (GLW) $11.28 +0.26% ... final alert ... CBOE just called me back and there WAS valid trade in the GLW Aug. $10 Puts (GLW-TB) at the bid of $0.25. As such, the eight (8) puts profiled are stopped at the bid of $0.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 3:34:24 PM

Bearish day trade close out alert for Corn Products (CPO) $20.83 offer.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 3:23:45 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 3:20:38 PM

Hercules Inc. (HPC) $14.63 +1.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 3:13:57 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for Corn Products (CPO) $20.76 -19.72% ... to $20.90.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/5/2005 3:08:09 PM

INTC bulls would love a close above 23.11, PDH.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 3:06:53 PM

Bearish put stop alert for ALL the Corning GLW Aug $10 Puts (GLW-TB) at the bid of $0.25. It's all being crossed from $0.25-$0.30. Corning (GLW) $11.23 -0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 3:03:29 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 3:03:03 PM

I need to step away and will most likely be gone until the session close. Updated QQQQ chart at this Link . Based on my observations at 2:49:27, a break of either the high or low should be directional, but the intraday cycle setup favors a downside break.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 3:00:32 PM

They made a run for us didn't they? CPO now back lower at $20.96.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:58:36 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.42 +0.78% .... good "pulse stock" today. Afternoon low ... $24.33. (see earlier postings) I'm thinking "not as strong, but just as weak" as analyzed. A QQQQ trader might be wise to make similar intra-day observations. Especially day traders of the QQQQ.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 2:57:05 PM

Ten year treasuries have recouped most of their losses, currently down 1 bp at 4.466% with 5 minutes left in the cash session. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:55:38 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert for Corn Products (CPO) $20.95 -18.98% ... to $21.17.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/5/2005 2:55:01 PM

Daily chart of INTC, ready to rock if above 23.24: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/5/2005 2:49:58 PM

Switch to Market Monitor: INTC support looks soid at 23 now and our MAY 22.50 calls at 1.15 should hold up well. We need a break above key resistance at 23.24 to really light a fire.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 2:49:27 PM

Amazingly, the 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are hanging on sell signals, but have yet to get moving in their downphases. I believe that the light volume is responsible for the indicators' stall, but it's going to depend on whether the day high or the day low breaks first. With both the 30 and 60 min oscillators flashing sell signals in overbought territory, the intraday bias is to the downside- only a very strong upside trending move from the daily cycle would be sufficient to trend the 30 and 60 min cycles in overbought territory. We might have to wait until tomorrow for a resolution.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:46:54 PM

See those 89 contracts traded in the Corn Products (CPO) $20.98 -18.87% ... April $20 Puts (CPO-PD) today at $0.25? I think that's got to be a NAKED seller. Open Interest on this contract is zero (0). $20 +/- $0.25 = $19.75-$20.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 2:33:16 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with QQQQ back to the 7200 tick SMA line, up 8 cents for the day on 52.8M shares so far compared with the 98.5M average for the full day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:32:51 PM

Most Actives .... JDSU $1.49 -5.69%, QQQQ $36.54 +0.24%, MSFT $24.43 +0.82%, LU $2.55 -2.67%, INTC $23.06 +0.56%, PFE $26.95 +3.93%, SPY $118.05 +0.35%, CSCO $17.69 +0.11%, ORCL $12.46 -1.81%, SMH $32.03 -0.09%, SIRI $5.58 +2.56%, AMAT $16.01 -0.24%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 2:25:46 PM

Session low for Nymex crude, -.925 at 56.075.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 2:23:41 PM

I believe the Fed's repo adjustments are made between 2PM and 3PM, and in this case it's a respectable 3.25B net drain. Other than that, this is the only negative ticker headline during that period:

2:20pm GM MOODY'S RATING FOR GM DEBT IS 1 NOTCH ABOVE JUNK STATUS

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:23:18 PM

A "doozy" of a sell program premium from 02:15-02:20 had premium falling to $0.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:18:12 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 2:18:23 PM

Rising support has just broken for the first time since 2:30PM yesterday, with resistance now at 36.50 QQQQ. The drop stopped at 30 min channel support of 36.44, but failing a strong bounce, that level will decline from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:13:24 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 2:12:56 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 2:08:05 PM

Nymex crude is currently -1.27% at 56.275.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:05:04 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,181.24, DIA $104.53 +0.29%, QQQQ $36.55 +0.24%

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:03:31 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert .... for Corn Products (CPO) $21.25 -17.82% ... to $21.57.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 2:02:26 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 2:02:03 PM

QQQQ is drifting toward the highs here. Without the program trades, there would be next to no volume. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 1:50:42 PM

Headlines:

1:48pm GREENSPAN GIVES NO GUESS AT OIL IMPACT ON ECONOMY

1:48pm GREENSPAN: CRUDE INVENTORIES COULD EASE PRICE FRENZY

1:48pm GREENSPAN SEES CRUDE INVENTORY BUILDING

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 1:45:35 PM

Corn Products (CPO) $21.25 -17.82% ... our "friend" on Instinet that was showing that 400 at $21.09 was moving up his/her bid at $21.24. (see 01:25:02 post)

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 1:39:58 PM

The metals are pulling back with equities here, as are bonds, TNX up 2.2 bps at 4.478%. Crude oil is down .575 at 56.425, having dipped as low as 56.10 at the day low. HUI is 19 cents in the green at 198.49, XAU +.37 at 92.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 1:35:15 PM

QQQQ is holding along the 7200 tick SMA, going net nowhere within the sideways 30 and 60 min channels. Volume is very light at 43.8M shares so far, less than a third of Friday's volume and not yet half of yesterday's 100.1M shares.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 1:33:35 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.42 +0.78% ... updated day trader's chart at this Link . So we didn't get our bearish entry. Still might be a useful observation if a day trade bull is long, nearing his/her bullish target and sees a "bad tick."

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 1:28:11 PM

Bearish day trade cancel setup alert ... for Microsoft (MSFT) $24.39 +0.66% and bearish entry of $24.55. Hasn't seen the light above $24.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 1:25:42 PM

Still stuck on the call. 100 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 1:25:02 PM

Corn Products (CPO) $21.21 -17.98% ... here's my Ameritrade Level II and Instinet (not the specialist) readings from just minutes ago. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 1:20:14 PM

Corn Products (CPO) $21.23 -17.90% ... let's keep an eye on $21.10 should CPO see some trade there. While I think that "bad tick" was a program for destiny at $20.10, it could be that $21.10 and $20.10 is typo error. If CPO breaks below $21.00, then begin to get some conviction toward $20.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 1:12:45 PM

Crude oil just printed a session low at 56.175.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 1:12:08 PM

Phone call here- back in a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 1:11:09 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 1:03:58 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 12:53:32 PM

Maverick Tube (MVK) $32.83 -1.41% Link ... back at bullish profile entry point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 12:46:56 PM

Corn Products (CPO) Day Trader's chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 12:46:16 PM

Steady as she goes for ten year notes, with ZN -.1406 at 109 27/64, TNX up 1.6 bps at 4.472%. Nymex crude is down to a .35 loss at 56.65, just off the 56.45 low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 12:40:43 PM

Day trade short alert ... for Corn Products (CPO) $21.31 -17.59% here, stop $22.05 to begin, target $20.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 12:38:32 PM

QQQQ has drifted above declining 7200 tick SMA, stalling the 30 min channel downphase. The toppiness in the longer intraday cycles suggests that the next move will be to the downside. A break above 36.70, the current location of the 60 min channel top, would violate that analysis by kicking off an upside intraday trending move. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 12:32:00 PM

Red Hat (RHAT) $11.03 -4.00% ... hugging low end of day's trade. Riding WEEKLY S1 ($11.02) since 10:35 AM EDT. RED #3 of 5-MRT at $10.98, so "little zone" from $10.98-$11.02.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 12:28:17 PM

QQQQ $36.55 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 12:27:29 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.45 +0.90% ... did you see that? Just traded $24.50, then got a little selling down to $24.50. Might get a "retail" pop to $24.55, maybe bring in some short-term momentum bulls, but then have computers really let'em have it, then momentum bulls turn seller back to $24.34 where "bad tick" originated from.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 12:25:17 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.46 +0.94% ... day trader's chart at this Link with observation of "bad tick" and show bearish day trade setup.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 12:16:29 PM

Bonds have recovered a few ticks from their session lows, TNX down to a 1.8 bp gain at 4.474%, with crude oil down .125 at 56.875. QQQQ has risen back to 7200 tick SMA resistance, currently dead center between 30 and 60 min channel support and resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 12:11:03 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 12:02:17 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link . The failure to cross the 7200 tick SMA has the 30 min channel downphase reasserting itself, support falling to 36.36. The 60 min channel looks like it's "jumped the shark" as well. A break below 36.45 will generate the first downticks.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 12:02:14 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 11:57:32 AM

Bearish day trade setup alert ... for Microsoft (MSFT) $24.43 +0.82% ... let's go short IF we get trade at $24.55, stop $24.60 and target a decline back to $24.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 11:53:51 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link currently testing 7200 tick SMA resistance from below with a short cycle upphase trying to kick off.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 11:45:50 AM

Session low for ten year notes here, TNX +2 bps at 4.476% with ZN bonds at 109 13/32. Crude oil is down .10 at 56.90.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 11:44:27 AM

CGI Holding (AMEX:THK) $4.24 -0.23% ... mentioned this one after last night's Cramer show on CNBC. Not a "day trading" stock. Trades like PHF doesn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 11:39:41 AM

Statasys (SSYS) $28.21 -1.26% Link ... may be a bearish play on the MENT warning. SSYS's PnF chart is bearish and recently broke bullish support trend. Vertical count is bearish to $21.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 11:40:18 AM

Mentor Graphics (MENT) $10.71 -21.53% Link ... downgraded by Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo Securities after the electronic design automation (EDA) products maker warned that Q1 sales would be weaker than expected.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 11:32:40 AM

The advdec line has been turning down since shortly after the open. The OEX's 130-ema still holds as resistance. About to take off for at least several hours if not the rest of the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 11:31:39 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from its 36.45 low, but needs to clear 36.55 in order to stall the 30 min cycle downphase. The 60 min cycle has stopped rising, but it will take a test of lower 36.40 support in order to generate the first downticks. Below that, the fibonacci levels line up well with price confluence, at 36.35, 36.28-.30, then at 36.20. However, with the short cycle entering oversold territory, the odds favor some kind of short term bounce before the longer intraday cycles get more aggressively in gear to the downside. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 11:20:17 AM

GLW $11.25 (unch), SMH $32.01 -0.15%, AAPL $41.89 +1.94%, SNDK $27.92 -0.10%

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 11:19:28 AM

Technology really struggling here. QQQQ $36.50 +0.08%, MSH.X 453.29 -0.19%

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 11:19:04 AM

The OEX's three-minute chart shows the potential for a H&S, with the formation as yet lacking a right shoulder. The OEX is approaching possible support on this three-minute chart, at about 561.50, and resistance gathers in the right-shoulder level, near 562.40 or so. Watch for this possibility to confirm.

I'll be signing off for at least a few hours and possibly for the rest of the day soon. I'll try to check back in mid-afternoon, if the opportunity presents itself, but the schedule depends on how quickly several appointments get settled.

I'm seeing the OEX find resistance where it's found it for a couple of weeks, at the daily 21/100/130-ema's, near 564.80 and 562.54. The broadening formation has broadened further, of course, with top resistance now just under 568 and bottom support now under the 200-sma. I'm wondering about the possibility of a narrowing of that broadening formation into a diamond shape, but that's just one possible scenario. Right now, I'm just not seeing strong indications as to what will happen. Sometimes we see mixed signs when the OEX isn't going anywhere, and maybe that's what's going to happen today, too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 11:15:28 AM

SOX.X 409.77 +0.08% ... reversing course after coming within a frog's hair of WEEKLY Pivot/DAILY R2 correlation. I've got session high as 413.96.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 11:10:44 AM

A new short cycle downphase is underway, with QQQQ holding below 7200 tick SMA resistance at 36.57. The 30 min channel is just beginning to tick lower, with the lower support pulling back to meet rising 60 min channel support at 36.40. The opposition of these two longer intraday cycles often results in sideways price chop as the channels get in gear.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 11:09:22 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Monday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 11:04:44 AM

Still no breakout on the OEX's 15-minute chart. The daily 130-ema still holds as resistance, although several days since 3/22, it has broken above that average, only to subside again.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 11:04:12 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 11:01:53 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 10:57:52 AM

Zn bond futures have weakened further, currently lower by .125 at 109 7/16, with TNX up 1.7 bps at 4.472%. Crude oil is lower by .075 at 56.925.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 10:52:54 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 111.48 -0.47% ... edges below Monday's low. The DDX.X traded either side of its WEEKLY Pivot (112.27) yesterday. SanDisk (SNDK) $27.97 +0.07% ... WEEKLY Pivot levels ... $26.14, $26.97, Piv= 27.70, $28.54, $29.26.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 10:49:41 AM

Software stocks weak after RSA Security (RSAS) $12.49 -21.29%, which sells enterprise security solutions, said revenue in the March quarter will range from $74-$76 million, well below prior guidance of $81-$84 million.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 10:49:40 AM

Keene, I've read various reports about diamonds at the bottom of a decline. I'm working from out of town, and so don't have access to my books, so can't tell you who says what, but one source says they are most often topping formations, but can (rarely) be bottoming ones. All sources (on my bookshelves) list them as indicative of emotion-based trading, just like broadening formations.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 10:47:31 AM

Sharp break lower for QQQQ here, the first violation of 7200 tick SMA support since the cash open. Link

Keene Little : 4/5/2005 10:46:43 AM

Linda, you mention an interesting idea about the possibility for a diamond pattern to form at the lows. I haven't studied these patterns much except that I know they're bearish at tops. Are they also good reversal signals at lows?

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 10:46:34 AM

The OEX did not produce a breakout signal on the last 15-minute period, closing beneath the breakout level. That makes it vulnerable to a pullback to 561.38 or perhaps even 560.20 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 10:44:20 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 10:39:28 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.60 +0.38%, PFE $26.77 +3.23%, MSFT $24.32 +0.37%, INTC $23.15 +0.85%, SPY $118.23 +0.51%, CSCO $17.67 (unch), SMH $32.23 +0.53%, LU $2.61 -0.38%, ORCL $12.59 -0.78%, AIG $54.23 +1.74%, SIRI $5.47 +0.42%, ELN $3.76 +2.73%

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 10:39:50 AM

Keene's and Marc's thoughts about consolidation ahead of the inventories number tomorrow (see the Futures side) fits with the possibility that broadening formations sometimes narrow into diamond shapes before a breakout. Here's a case where fundamentals might be meeting some tendencies on the charts. As I said earlier, though, there's no evidence that the OEX will narrow down. It's just a sometimes thing with these broadening formations. In fact, I'm still not seeing strong indication of final direction today.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 10:38:19 AM

Here's one I missed at 10AM:

DJ Challenger: March US Job Cuts Fall 20% From February NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Job cuts announced by U.S. corporations in March fell sharply by 20% from the previous month to 86,396, the lowest number since August, according to a Challenger, Gray & Christmas report released Tuesday.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 10:36:30 AM

During the last 15-minute period, the OEX pulled back, but not far enough to complete an evening-star pattern. The 15-minute Kelnter chart suggests that if the OEX ends the current 15-minute period above a Keltner line currently at 562.37, it will set a tentative upside target of 566.85, but the daily 21- and 100-ema's lie between the current level and that one, and those averages have proven important over the last couple of weeks. Not certain yet that the OEX will be able to maintain the breakout through this 15-minute period as yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 10:28:10 AM

QQQQ still holding above 7200 tick SMA support: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 10:28:09 AM

I'm working on too little sleep. I've been thinking all day today that today is Wednesday and that we're awaiting crude inventories.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/5/2005 10:26:41 AM

INTC needs to get above 38% and trendline R at 23.24. It is a big wall, but watch out above should it break it.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 10:23:28 AM

Bonds have weakened slightly, with TNX up .8 bps at 4.464% currently and ZN futures down .0625 at 109.5. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 10:21:08 AM

I need to reload my QCharts as I'm not getting any intra-day bar chart feed this morning. I'll be back.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 10:17:17 AM

The OEX's last 15-minute candle was a small-bodied candle sitting on top of a rise. OEX bulls do not now want to see the OEX fall during this 15-minute period, completing an evening-star pattern.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 10:13:23 AM

7200 tick SMA support is up to 36.54, 3 cents below QQQQ's current price. The short cycle upphase has stalled on the sharp drop, but it will take a break of the SMA line to reverse it. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 10:10:21 AM

OEX is at the daily 130-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 10:09:42 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 10:07:40 AM

OEX bulls now don't want to see the OEX now produce a reversal signal on the 15-minute chart. For several days, it's been producing reversal signals after breaking minimally through the Keltner resistance configuration that it just broke through this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 10:06:18 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 10:02:22 AM

The Fed has announced a 3B overnight repo to replace 6.25B expiring, for a net drain of 3.25B today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 10:02:15 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 10:01:26 AM

Advdec line still climbing. If I remember what I read correctly, gasoline inventories are expected to decline this morning, and some sources are again expressing doubt that oil-producing countries will be able to bump up production as much as they say they're going to do. Is that what others are reading? Crude coils ahead of that inventories announcement.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 9:56:56 AM

The OEX now approaches the daily 130-ema, with this average having stopped advances on daily closes since 3/22. I wouldn't be surprised to at least see a test of the 100-ema at 564.78, though.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 9:56:33 AM

SOX.X $412.92 +0.86% ... edges above DAILY R1. Should go WEEKLY Pivot/DAILY R2 here.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 9:55:30 AM

The OEX is pushing against 15-minute Keltner resistance, bulging it outward, but not yet breaking through it as it did (temporarily) on the last two tests of this Keltner configuration, last Wednesday and Thursday.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 9:55:25 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 9:54:02 AM

QQQQ has broken the premarket high and stopped just short of the 60 min channel top at 36.64 with a new short cycle upphase underway. The USD Dollar Index remains weak, with gold and silver higher by .31% and .68% at 427.40 and 7.073 respectively. HUI is currently up .93% at 200.14, XAU +.8% at 93.19.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 9:51:07 AM

VIX.X 13.91 -1.41% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 13.48, 13.80, Piv= 14.28, 14.60, 15.08.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2005 9:49:53 AM

Greenspan is scheduled to talk at the Petrochemical Conference today from 11:30 to 2:00.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 9:49:35 AM

Remember that I'm watching to day to see if the OEX actually narrows into a triangle, transforming that broadening formation into a diamond, something that occasionally occurs. If that's going to happen, then we might have a day or two before that narrowing is completed. A miserable day or two. There's no proof yet that it will happen, but it's just a sometimes occurrence with these broadening formations.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 9:47:28 AM

Napster (NAPS) $7.22 +17.02% ... said it ended its fiscal Q4 with more than 410,000 subscribers, adding 143,000 during the period, representing sequential subscriber growth of more than 53%. The company now expects revenue for the fourth quarter ended March 31 of $16.5 million to $17.5 million, up from a prior estimate of about $15 million. Analysts, on average, were expecting sales of about $14.6 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 9:44:04 AM

QQQQ is holding within its opening range, above 7200 tick SMA support at 36.48. A break above the 36.57 should see a quick run to combined 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 36.65. The short cycle has been in a corrective downphase since yesterday afternoon, and has room to run higher should the session high break. A move below the 7200 tick SMA would have a good chance of testing 36.35. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 9:43:33 AM

The OEX's daily 21/100/130-ema's are at 564.70, 564.76 and 562.53, respectively. These could be key to watch today, although the top of the broadening formation has now moved above these averages.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 9:39:25 AM

The OEX also approaches Keltner resistance on the 15-minute Keltner chart, with that resistance at 561.87.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2005 9:38:55 AM

Pfizer (PFE) $26.74 +3.16% ... forecasted 2005 earnings of $2 per share excluding one-time items, compared with analysts' expectations of between $1.99 and $2.35. Last year, PFE earned $2.12 per share (ex-items).

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 9:36:08 AM

The OEX currently tests daily Keltner resistance from 561.20-563.40. If it can close the day above the lower end of that resistance, it's got a start on stabilizing the smallest Keltner channel, but it's far too early to know whether that might happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 9:35:30 AM

A sea of green at the open. Notably in the red is May crude oil, -.425 at 56.575.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 9:33:48 AM

When I look at the OEX's chart on various time frames, I see it in the middle. In the middle of support and resistance, in the middle of its 15-minute Keltner channels, just in the middle. I don't see clear indications as to which direction it's likely to head, either. Tough to gauge here.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 9:32:19 AM

The OEX opens this morning at the 15-minute 100-ema and climbs, but hasn't topped yesterday's high. It's testing that level.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 9:10:27 AM

QQQQ broke yesterday's high this morning and is currently holding right on it within the still rising but overbought 30 min cycle. The break of yesterday's high satisfies half of the higher-high-higher-low requirement for the daily cycle upphase. That upphase, which kicked off last week, faltered briefly at yesterday's lows but did not abort. However high the cycle is able to drive the price is an open question- but for the moment, it continues to point north, and a rough average would have its influence continue for another one to two weeks. A higher low today will help confirm it.

Meanwhile, the intraday cycles are pointed up, but spent most of their energy yesterday. That suggests a weaker intraday bias than yesterday, when they were oversold and turning up. A break below 36.40 should be sufficient to kick off a new 30 min cycle downphase. In light of the daily cycle upphase, the 30 min cycle should be corrective or sideways-down. A stronger 30 min downphase will throw the current daily cycle bullish bias into question.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 8:35:00 AM

Bonds are holding unchanged, with TNX up .3 bps at 4.459% here just past the cash open. QQQQ has risen to 36.56, gold has ticked green while CAD and euro futures are hilding light losses, -.09% and -.13% respectively.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 8:25:05 AM

Once again, the OEX ended the day yesterday in its recent congestion zone, between the resistance offered by its daily 21/100/130-ema's at 565.05, 564.83 and 562.55, respectively, and the support offered by its 200-ema and -sma's at 553.78 and 557.32. The OEX ended the day right in the middle of that broadening formation, right between potential support and potential resistance. As these broadening formations broaden, trading often gets more volatile for a few days, with prices literally zooming from one side to the other of the formation. Then, occasionally but not always, something different happens. The former broadening formation narrows into a diamond shape. The slightly higher low reached yesterday gives the slightest hint that may be happening. If so, traders will be able to form a better idea of when a breakout may have occurred, but we just don't know yet if that narrowing into a diamond is really happening.

Daily oscillators don't yet give strong hints of final direction. The daily Keltner chart suggests that as long as the OEX continues producing daily closes beneath the Keltner resistance currently from 561.31-563.45, it remains vulnerable to a test of the 200-sma or perhaps slightly lower. A daily close above that resistance would hit further resistance from 567.98-569.32.

The sell-off into the close yesterday wasn't encouraging to bulls, but just brought the OEX back into the mid-channel area on the 15-minute chart, and futures steadied after the cash close. Keltner lines on that 15-minute chart are arrayed in such a manner as there is neither strong support or strong resistance. I don't see a firm signal either direction as yet, but rather typical difficult-to-trade conditions often seen within a broadening formation. One of these days the OEX is going to break out one direction or the other. Hasn't happened yet.

I'll be around for the open, but then will be gone for a big chunk of the middle of the day. I hope to return by the close, but am not certain that will happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/5/2005 7:44:55 AM

Equities are higher, ES trading 1182, NQ 1489, YM 10459 and QQQQ +.05 at 36.51. Gold is down .60 at 425.50, silver -.056 at 6.969, ten year notes are down .1094 at 109 29/64 and Nymex crude is lower by .45 at 56.55.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 4/5/2005 6:35:11 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei posted a triple-digit gain last night, its exporters buoyed by this week's strength in the U.S. dollar and last night's comparative weakness in crude prices. Many other Asian markets were closed for a holiday, but among those open, most declined. European markets trade higher, digesting a host of economic releases and news that Tony Blair will call an election in May after a poll showed his party's lead slipping. Our futures flat-lined most of the night. As of 5:46 EST, gold was $426, and as of 5:53, crude was $57.70, just off a test of the double-bottom level on a 15-minute chart. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher Tuesday morning on its way to a triple-digit gain. The Nikkei closed higher by 106.77 points or 0.92%, at 11,774.31. The dollar's strength Monday improved appetite for exporters, and crude's slip from Sunday night highs helped, too. Economic news wasn't so cheery, however, with February's household spending falling 3.7% on year. Issues related to domestic demand, such as department store companies, declined on the news.

Other Asian markets declined, with many closed for a holiday. The Taiwan Weighted, South Korean Kospi, and Hong Kong Hang Seng were closed. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.13%, and China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.93%.

European markets gain ahead of this Thursday's ECB meeting. The ECB is not expected to raise rates, and many speculate that the ECB may be on hold for a while due to mixed data and high oil prices. Many economic numbers came in today, including the U.K.'s March Nationwide House Price Index, rising 0.5% month over month, erasing all of February's losses. This number was stronger than expected, suggesting that housing prices may be stabilizing. However, the three-month figure still continues to decline, now at 9.7%, down from February's 12.1%.

In other economic news, Italy's March Services Sector PMI rose to 52.7 from the previous 51.6, a bigger rise than expected in the headline number. That was due to a rise in business expectations and new business, but employment fell to 49.7. France's March Services Sector PMI fell to 55.4 from February's 57.2, joining Spain in producing disappointing numbers. The breakdown in France's result shows many differences from Italy's, with the new business component falling, although remaining above the benchmark 50, and employment growth accelerating. Business expectations also rose. In Germany, March Services PMI surprised to the upside, rising to 51.8 from February's 50.4. Business expectations rose sharply to 59.4 from the previous 53.7. New business rose, too, but remains under the benchmark 50, at 49.00. Employment also remained under 50, but climbed to 49.5. For the eurozone, March Services Sector PMI remained unchanged, beating expectations. Employment rose to 51.3 from the previous 50.6. One source notes that this is the highest employment reading in three years. For the eurozone, however, the new business and outstanding business indices fell. Business expectations soared to 67.5. A Eurozone Composite Index fell in March, to 52.5 from February's 53.1, with new orders decreasing and employment holding steady. For the U.K., March's number was a strong 57.0, up from February's 55.1 and much above the expected 55.0. New business and business expectations rose. Employment climbed to a much stronger 52.0 from February's 50.5. Prices charged slipped and input prices weren't much changed.

Not all the news impacting markets is economic. In the U.K., Prime Minister Tony Blair will call a general election May 5 after a new poll showed the opposition party conservatives gaining strength among those who are likely to vote, with Blair's labour party slipping. Most now believe that Labour will win the vote, and Blair will ask for reelection. Blair is to approach the Queen today to begin the process by dissolving parliament.

Stock-specific news included private investment firm Hellman & Friedman's stock purchase agreement to sell Zurich Financial Services Group's wholly owned Universal Underwriters Group to an investment group that Hellman & Friedman leads. Other deals included French Zodiac Group's decision to buy a privately held U.S. company, C& D Aerospace, as a step in better positioning itself in the aircraft cabin systems equipment niche. Zodiac was climbing in early trading. Speculation arose that French company Thales would begin discussions with state-owned shipyard group Direction des Constructions Navales now that Alcatel, 9.1% stakeholder in Thales, decided not to oppose the deal despite not being convinced of its merits. Thales climbed in early European trading. Insurer Swiss Life revealed earnings and suggested a dividend after not paying one for three years.

As of 6:17 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 16.30 points or 0.33%, at 4,913.00. The CAC 40 was higher by 18.00 points or 0.44%, at 4,070.30. The DAX had climbed 14.08 points or 0.32%, to trade at 4,355.47.

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