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Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:53:55 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) down 0.50 at 1,188.50. See you in the morning!

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:52:17 PM

QCharts' Hot List of NASDAQ-listed stocks showing "unusual volume" on Wednesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:45:29 PM

QCharts' Hot List of NYSE-listed stocks showing "unusual volume" on Wednesday Link JNC $34.01 -0.49% Link (volume, no price action), NRU $23.30 +0.17% (volume, no price action), ATN $12.97 -0.30% Link (volume, no price action) .....

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:32:48 PM

Thursday's Stock Trader's Almanac quote of the day .... "Institutions tend to dump a stock in a single transaction and buy, if possible, in smaller lots, gradually accumulating a position. Therefore, many more big blocks are traded on downticks than on upticks. - Justin Mamis

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:26:42 PM

Did you know that the Chinese New Year began on 02/09/05? 2005 is the "Year of the Rooster." (I wanted to make sure it wasn't the "Year of the Rat")

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:19:34 PM

Possible "I smell a rat alert" ... Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) $3.76 -4.56% ... on Monday, ALTI and Advanced Battery Technologies (OTC BB: ABAT) $1.45 -12.12 announced they had signed a mutually exclusive agreement whereby Advanced Battery Technologies would incorporate Altair's battery electrode nano-materials into ABAT's existing polymer battery products. Source: Altair Nanotechnologies: Link Now, a recent 10-K Link filed just last week by ABAT said, "Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. is a holding company with one subsidiary: Cashtech Investment Limited, a British Virgin Islands corporation. Cashtech Investment Limited has only one asset, which is 70% of the capital stock of Heilongjiang ZhongQiang Power-Tech Co., Ltd., a China limited liability company ("ZQ Power-Tech"). Advanced Battery has only two employees: its Chairman and its Secretary. ZQ Power-Tech has 360 employees. 28 are involved in administration and 8 in marketing." One question raised today is "where did ALTI come up with ABAT employing 1,200 people?" (see ALTI press release and LINK #1) While ALTI's previous press releases regarding their "breakthrough" technology for extending lithium battery life is what attracted me, and perhaps other investors to the stock on 02/10/05 and my original bullish profile, I grow concerned as to some of ALTI's recent press releases, and the TIMING of these releases (when the stock shows weakness). As such, I want to CAUTION bulls that this stock should NOT be a CORE position holding. Still long 200 shares in the MM Profiles with STOP firm at $2.60. This should give ALTI plenty of time to clarify their recent press release or get some BIGGER players to sign on to their technology. Who are you Mr. Fu? (Carefully read ABAT's 10K - Liquidity and Capital Resources regarding Mr. Fu's newly acquired stock holdings in ABAT)

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:38:07 PM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $4.62 and set for program selling at $+1.92.

OI Technical Staff : 4/6/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 9:44:05 PM

Headline from Associated Press ... Gap Shares Dip Despite Upgrade ... Weekly Interval chart of GPS $21.61 -1.32% at this Link . A little "head and shoulder-ish" perhaps.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 8:44:59 PM

Cree (CREE) $24.76 +8.07% Link ... two consecutive strong sessions after violation of bullish support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 8:38:48 PM

Network Appliance (NTAP) $28.45 +4.55% Link ... #37 on today's most active. Gets an upgrade from Morgan Keegan after recent backfill of November's gap. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 8:32:51 PM

QualComm (QCOM) $35.12 -1.48% Link ... #27 on today's most active. It isn't looking all that healthy.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 8:15:46 PM

Anheuser Busch (BUD) $45.65 -3.77% Link ... notable 52-week low on the NYSE after the company lowered earnings outlook.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/6/2005 7:57:54 PM

Good one Jeff (oil trade Bush). The irony is that the goverment bid up prices last year by being big buyers and refusing to release. Turn out they were right, but upset a lot of traders that were short...

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 7:44:00 PM

Congratulations to the "Lady Bears" after Baylor wins the Women's NCAA Basketball title, handily defeating Michigan State 84 to 62.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 7:03:19 PM

Today's low in the QQQQ (DAILY S1) came at 03:32 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 7:03:08 PM

Today's low in the SPY of $118.18 came at 03:32 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 6:19:26 PM

Ooooo James Cramer ... I like your sudden change of tune on SBUX $52.13 +0.75% ... now lower at $51.27. Starbucks saying March same store sales rose just 6%. Analysts were looking for an 8% gain. Reuters story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 6:13:58 PM

Ooooo James Cramer ... I like your sudden change of tune on SBUX $52.13 +0.75% ... now lower at $51.27.

Mark Davis : 4/6/2005 6:05:59 PM

LOL Jeff! That has to be the post of the day.
Jeff Bailey for President!

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 5:53:15 PM

Some final ticks ... AA $30.53, AL $38.02, DELL $38.56, AAPL $42.46, SMH $32.08, QQQQ $36.62

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 5:47:06 PM

I had a dream last night... that I was named head of Energy Department. In that dream I advised President Bush that he might "solve" deficit and oil prices by selling oil futures short, then releasing strategic oil reserve and sell oil bought at substantially lower prices over the years for BIG profits (use profits to pay down deficit). Once oil back at $30, begin locking in gains on futures short (further pay down deficit with gains), buy additional front month contracts at lower prices for re-build of strategic reserve. I think the alarm clock went off just as I was "taking the 5th" in front of Congress' special task force.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 5:31:26 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 5:02:27 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 4:50:44 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 4:42:52 PM

Alcan (AL) $37.50 +2.40% ... ticking at $38.02.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 4:41:23 PM

Alcoa (AA) $29.98 (unch) ... delayed reaction to earnings now finds AA higher at $30.75. Bugger fell to $29.60 on initial reaction.

Mark Davis : 4/6/2005 4:36:58 PM

One last chart... note the swing high at 1190.50. I would be surprised to see ES take that out in the overnight session, considering the +3.75 point bounce off LOD. We are short from 1190, stop 1192 so I am going to leave the play open for now... Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 4:36:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... Day traded long shares of Alcoa (AA) at $30.08, but exited shy of target at $30.33. ($+0.25, or +0.83%). Day traded long shares of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $4.50, but was stopped out at $4.45. ($-0.05, or -1.11%) Day traded short shares of Alcan (AL) at $37.50, exited prior to close at $37.60 ($-0.10, or -0.27%)

Mark Davis : 4/6/2005 4:32:50 PM

Here is the latest 5-min chart update. Note the broken downtrend line and the fib retrace numbers. At this point I would be happy to exit the short from 1190 at 1188 (38.2% retrace) for +2... Link

Mark Davis : 4/6/2005 4:28:33 PM

Jonathan... very nice call on the QQQQ support level at 36.42. They tagged it to the penny. You can't get any better than that!

Mark Davis : 4/6/2005 4:25:44 PM

The bouncing ball game continues. It is looking like I should have taken my own advice and exited at 1186. Hopefully some of you did when I said conservative traders take +4. I will probably hold the short now and hope for a pullback to exit. We are still profitable on the play by .50 and that was a pretty steep spike after the close. I just talked to Marc on the phone and he is ticked off about closing his long play... can't say that I blame him. He had a great entry and closed it out too soon but he still grabbed a big chunk of the rally. Congrats Marc! (we can't all be perfect but you did very well). Time to start over again... sigh

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 4:18:15 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $28.59 +2.18% ... went out at high of session (BIG volume at the close). $28.55 here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 4:16:16 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $42.33 +1.05% ... also higher at $42.48.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 4:14:43 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $38.14 -2.53% ... higher at $38.54 after reaffirming quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 4:13:36 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $104.95, SPY $118.55

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 4:01:20 PM

QQQQ just broke the descending resistance line, just testing declining 7200 tick SMA resistance and breaking above as I type. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 4:02:22 PM

Alcoa (AA) how about $30.00 +0.06% ... I will have to remember todays trade when Alcan (AL) reports its earnings. Evidently should have been looking LONG AL today, not AA. Way too much hard work for what I/we didn't get, but should have gotten.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 3:58:26 PM

And he/she will probably mark it to the close at $37.50. Alcan (AL) $37.55

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:57:41 PM

As far as I'm concerned, everything that's occurred since March 22 is just consolidation after the OEX moved below the daily 100/130-ema's. Just consolidation. No outcome yet. Sadly.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 3:57:36 PM

He's got us/me to the close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 3:57:16 PM

Bearish day trade close out alert ... for Alcan (AL) $37.60

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:53:49 PM

Of the indices I watch frequently, the TRAN is one of the first to close a 60-minute period back below the 60-minute 21-ema. The TRAN is spending this period retesting that average, at 3719.34.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:52:00 PM

Mark, I'll be glad when I can stop typing "broadening formation" and "below the resistance of the daily 100/130-ema's and above the support of the 200-sma and ema's." See Mark's 3:32 post. Crazy trading conditions.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:43:04 PM

OEX bulls do not want to see the OEX end the day below the daily 100/130-ema's again today after piercing those averages again today.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:40:43 PM

We're seeing the expected bounce from just above Keltner support at 561.65. Next resistance is trying to firm between 562.89-563.36, but it's not yet rock-solid resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 3:39:22 PM

100 tick QQQQ chart update at this Link

Mark Davis : 4/6/2005 3:32:53 PM

Just what I was thinking Linda. It's about time for a +10 point spike to blow everybody out again. These wild swings will end at some point and the market will move strongly in one direction or another but we still don't know which way and probably will not until it becomes visible in the rear view mirror. Having said that, it looks pretty bleak for the bulls at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 3:31:13 PM

The Nasdaq is down to unchanged here, with QQQQ and NQ leading lower. QQQQ continues to walk its way lower beneath trendline and 7200 tick SMA resistnaace, currently at 36.65-.67. The 30 min cycle oscillators are roughly halfway down their usual range, suggesting a continuation of this weakness into tomorrow morning. However, the daily cycle upphase has yet to register the current decline, and will not provided that yesterday's low is not violated. For that reason, 36.40-.42 will be a key support test.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:29:36 PM

Those OEX traders who might have entered bearish plays today when the OEX's 15-minute Keltner support began softening should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of the 561.65 Keltner support. This configuration of support prompted Tuesday's midday bounce. Not sure how far the OEX might bounce this time--after all, it's still inside that broadening formation--but a bounce might occur again. Didn't at the last level of Keltner support, though.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 3:24:25 PM

TRIN 1.25 +43% ... high of day

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 3:24:05 PM

QQQQ $36.47 -0.24% ... has now "failed" back below daily pivot. See earlier morning postings.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 3:23:04 PM

Alcan (AL) $37.46 +2.29% ... for those using 5-MRT in combination with your DAILY Pivot levels, I'm using that second 5-minute interval from $36.57 to $36.81. Note BLUE #5 would mark high of day at $37.59.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:21:42 PM

OEX 15-minute Keltner support being tested now, and already looking slightly weaker. Bears hoping to see 561.56, the next downside Keltner target, want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 563.72. However, the daily 100-ema and the neckline of the H&S visible on the five-minute chart are both being tested, so there's potentially some support here. That long upper shadow certainly does not look great on the daily chart, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 3:21:34 PM

Session lows printing now, violating the double-bottom for QQQQ. Current 30 min channel support is at 36.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 3:18:35 PM

QQQQ 100-tick update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:15:14 PM

The OEX drifts slowly and reluctantly down toward next Keltner support just below 563 on the 15-minute chart. Since this is also near the neckline of a H&S, this is not what bulls want to see, but bears would certainly like to see a bit less reluctance to approach that neckline, too. Without a sell program to drive the OEX lower, that 562.96-ish level looks strong eough to prompt at least a small bounce, perhaps up to 563.86, but if bulls get too scared as that neckline is approached, there could be more of a stampede out of positions. As now configured, though, a small bounce at least seems possible.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 3:12:01 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:09:02 PM

The OEX now sports a well-formed H&S at the top of its climb on the five-minute chart. The neckline is somewhere between 562.85 and 562.77, depending on how it's drawn.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 3:06:09 PM

QQQQ just printed a double bottom at 36.55. A break above 36.60 could attract the buy-bots playing this well-worn formation, and should be sufficient to kick off the overdue short cycle upphase as well.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 3:04:29 PM

Ten year notes closed -3.4 bps at 4.436%. Daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:03:11 PM

The OEX broke out of that symmetrical triangle to the downside, and now approaches 562.95-563.19 next potential 15-minute Keltner support. A 15-minute close beneath that support sets a potential downside target of 560.67-561.63.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 3:03:07 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 3:00:56 PM

Fed speaker Santomero is to appear tomorrow, his topic "Making Monetary Policy: What Do We Know and When Do We Know It?" I'm not certain when he's to speak yet, but that talk could be market moving. Lacker is also to speak, on consumer financies.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 3:00:15 PM

We've got 4,600 bid on instinet at $37.48 and then $37.49 so be patient. Saw similar action in AA up at $30.34.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:58:50 PM

Triggered short alert ... for Alcan (AL) $37.50

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:57:54 PM

The OEX's five-minute chart now shows a coiling symmetrican triangle, narrowing now toward its apex.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 2:57:38 PM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:54:08 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.01 +0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:53:09 PM

Alcoa (AA) $30.10 +0.40% .... Alcan (AL) $37.54 +2.51% ....

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:52:32 PM

SOX trying to maintain values above the 200-sma again. The SOX, like many other indices, remains mired in a weeks-long consolidation zone.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:50:17 PM

Strongest nearby Keltner support on the OEX is near 562.92-563.12 and strongest nearby Keltner resistance is from 564.94-565.19. Earlier, Keltner charts gave a fairly clear view that support was weakening, but the picrure is not so clear right now. So far, the OEX finds resistance at a Keltner line currently at 564.02, and that's not what bulls want, but that's the most evidence we have right now and it's not conclusive. I believe this is because of 60-minute and daily 100-ema support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 2:47:07 PM

QQQQ rolled over from the declining resistance line, but needs to break lower out of the flag/wedge for another shot at the session lows. The 30 and 60 min channels continue lower, with support for the 60 min channel at 36.55, 30 min support at 36.47. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:46:35 PM

Bearish day trade short setup alert ... for Alcan (AL) $37.55 +2.53%. Go short on a trade at $37.50, stop $37.70, target its Daily Pivot of $36.87.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:43:29 PM

So far, first Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, at 564.08, holds.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:41:34 PM

Alcoa (AA) $30.01 +0.10% ... getting "kicked in the can" now.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:33:59 PM

Nearest Keltner resistance is holding, at least temporarily, for the OEX. Bulls don't want to see this resistance hold.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:35:20 PM

Corning (GLW) $11.74 +4.35% ... good gravy ... I guess that option action was BULLISH. Seeing Reuters report that LCD glass shortages may worsen in 2005. Story at this Link Ya think somebody got the "heads up" to this story yesterday afternoon?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 2:31:45 PM

Crude oil has dropped to negative territory, down .225 at 55.825 at the Nymex close. TNX is up to a 3 bp loss, but QQQQ as broken upward, now testing declining 7200 tick SMA resistance at the trendline, 36.65 currently. Look for the new short cycle upphase to start if it breaks above it.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:30:18 PM

The OEX tests first Keltner resistance at 564.07, with bulls wanting to see a 15-minute close above that resistance and bears wantin the opposite. Keltner resistance at about 565.14 is trying to firm, but so is support near 562.83-563.30.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:26:19 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:22:33 PM

QQQQ $36.59 +0.08% ... still holding above its DAILY Pivot of $36.55 at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:21:54 PM

June Crude (cl05m) $57.30 +0.35% (30-min delayed) ... just under its DAILY Pivot of $57.43.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:20:56 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) down 3.2 bp at 4.438% ... session low has been 4.426% and just above DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:19:20 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.07 x $9.10

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:18:12 PM

Here's what the Dow's 15-minute Keltner chart has to say about support and resistance. It shows the Dow vulnerable to a pullback to 10,482.39-10,490.61 as long as it's producing 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 10,507.24. A test of that resistance should prompt at least a small bounce, and it will be the action of the Dow near that line currently at 10,507 that will tell us whether further declines or a retest of the day's high are more likely.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:18:14 PM

SIRI $5.44 ... nope. RED #3 at $5.34, DAILY S2 $5.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 2:16:19 PM

Crude oil is down to a .05 gain at 56.10, while TNX is holding near the lows, down 3.6 bps at 4.432%. QQQQ is holding in what is either a "b" distribution flag at the lows, or consolidating for an oversold short cycle bounce. A break of either 36.62 or 36.52 should provide a resolution- past that, the key range to watch is from 36.50-36.70.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:15:21 PM

Sirius (SIRI) $5.46 x $5.47 ... we may have gotten day trade "stop hunted," but difficult to say at this point. Hindsite is always 20/20.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:15:04 PM

SOX pulling back below the 200-sma again.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:08:58 PM

The OEX is rising to test nearest 15-minute Keltner resistance, currently at 564.16. Resistance at 565.1 firms a big more, but so does support at 562.78. A failure to produce 15-minute closes above that nearest Keltner support will continue the flattening of the smallest Keltner channel on that chart, however.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:07:51 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:05:49 PM

The Russell 2000 drops to a test of its 60-minute 100-ema after pushing above it today. A decline below it, confirmed by a move below the 21-ema on that chart, at 615.10, would be ominous. The shape of the RUT's pullback from its test of the 4/01 high does not have a corrective look, at least not as seen on the 60-minute chart, so that evidence, at least, is not encouraging to bulls, although the retest of the 60-minute 100-ema isn't particularly surprising.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 2:02:18 PM

There was a big surge of volume on the decline, with QQQQ bouncing from a low of 36.50. Descending intraday trendline resistance is down to 36.67 currently, with the 7200 tick SMA chasing it down, currently at 36.73. The breach of the lower keltners is generating the current bounce, but with the 30 and 60 min cycles due for a downphase, any bounce below the SMA would be corrective within it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 2:01:59 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 2:02:05 PM

As I suggested earlier, the Keltner configuration that has been supporting the TRAN today did not hold on the latest test. However, the TRAN has now reached another level of potential Keltner support and may attempt a bounce again. So far, it has not been able to push outside the descending regression channel on the daily chart, however.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:59:28 PM

I love Keltner charts. That softening of the support was ominous for the OEX. Now the OEX has reached down to test next Keltner support with any hope of being firm. Traders might look for a potential bounce or bounce attempt here, and how high it goes or whether it even happens will tell us much. I still wouldn't be surprised to see 561.50 tested, perhaps not until after a retest of 564.30 or so.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:56:48 PM

I've been thinking that the OEX needs to break up toward 570 or perhaps even 578 or so, to form a right shoulder for its potential H&S on its daily chart, before we know if it's going to invalidate that formation or roll down and confirm it. I'm just not certain that it's going to do that today or even at all. I've had this S/R band on my charts for many months, and the OEX just hasn't broken out on a daily closing basis yet: Link One problem for me is that anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of TA can recognize a potential H&S in the making now, and some indices, notably the TRAN have begun just doing away with the right shoulder occasionally.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:55:34 PM

Alcoa (AA) $30.25 +0.90% ... Sirius (SIRI) $5.46 -2.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:51:49 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,185.26, DIA $105.00, QQQQ $36.58

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:51:15 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $5.45

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 1:51:09 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 1:49:47 PM

Treasuries have strengthened, with ZN futures printing a session high here at 109 25/32, TNX down 4.4 bps at 4.426%. Crude oil is up .20 at 56.25, off its high of 56.875.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:48:19 PM

QQQQ $36.63 +0.19% ... lows of session here. SEBL -9.95%, BEAS -4.69%, EBAY -2.12%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 1:47:38 PM

Back to find QQQQ breaking 37.67 and testing the low as I type. 30 and 60 min channel support coincide at 36.60. A weak bounce below 36.70 will confirm the downturns in the 30 and 60 min cycles- the trick is that the short cycle is now buried in oversold and needs to either bounce or start trending.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:47:26 PM

On the OEX 15-minute chart, resistance continues to firm and the OEX drops a little, toward softening support. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to 562.77 or even 561.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:43:00 PM

Don't like that QQQQ action ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:42:13 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert for Alcoa (AA) $30.33

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:39:15 PM

The TRAN currently tests the Keltner configuration on its five-minute chart that's been holding up all day today. Each TRAN swing high today has produced Keltner-style bearish divergence, however, so I'm not certain that support will hold for the TRAN this time. That support is at 3735.46 on a five-minute closing basis.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 1:32:38 PM

QQQQ update at this Link . Stepping away for 15 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:31:22 PM

While the OEX did not quite complete its potential evening-star configuration on its 60-minute chart, the last three candles, including the just-completed one, lend themselves to anything but a bullish interpretation. First, there was a tall white candle, then a doji, and last a small-bodied red candle with an upper shadow. That red candle should have been a bit taller itself, dipping a bit further, to have completed the evening-star pattern. All of this is occurring at the 60-minute 100/130-ema's as well as the daily versions. Careful bulls. This is a little scary with 15-minute Keltner support also softening.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:21:37 PM

If the OEX doesn't move soon, Keltner resistance overhead from 564.93-565.31 will firm up. However, we're approaching the stop-running time of day, so a move isn't out of the question. Support continues to soften, however, offering a potential warning to bulls. Mixed evidence again, as the shape of the pullback looks like a bull flag and the OEX clings to current Keltner support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:19:32 PM

DIA $105.14 +0.52% ... sideways, but holding just above DAILY R2 since 11:00 AM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:16:50 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Alcoa (AA) $30.39 +1.36% ... to $30.29

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:17:04 PM

The TRAN continues to challenge the top of its descending regression channel, chart linked to my 10:02 post. There's a kind of rough H&S on the top of the five-minute chart, however, not yet confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:14:16 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 1:10:35 PM

QQQQ bouncing from 36.67-.70 support to retest short cycle resistance. That downphase is still in progress, but a break above 36.80 would change that. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:07:37 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:07:12 PM

I forgot to mention earlier that the pullback in the OEX at least from that 4/01 high looks like a bull flag, part of that mixed evidence we're seeing. So far, the OEX is clinging to first Keltner support, but support beneath that thins, showing that it's softening somewhat. Bulls want to see a push back above the breakout level, near 564.93, on a 15-minute closing basis. There's danger that former support could now become resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:05:25 PM

Alcoa (AA) "groundhogging" at $30.35 +1.23%

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:04:31 PM

Russell 2000 turning down from its test of the 4/01 high, too, although the downturn may be only a test of the 60-minute 100/130-ema's that it broke through earlier today. Those are at 617.20 and 618.80, respectively. Bulls have got to be nervous today, and I'd suggest that you continue to protect any bullish profits you might have.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 1:04:14 PM

Nymex crude has backed off its highs, currently up a dime at 56.15. Ditto bonds, with ten year yields up to a 3.2 bp loss at 4.437%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 1:01:18 PM

It's like pushing a boulder up the hill isn't it? AA $30.34

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 1:01:03 PM

The OEX is now closing below the breakout level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, putting that upside target into doubt. Support thins below the currently level, near first Keltner support at 564.51. Bulls need to see this hold or a test of 562.55 or 561.32 might be in store.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 12:56:07 PM

Watching another, bigger potential H&S on the advdec line.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 12:54:43 PM

Earlier support at 36.67-.70 QQQQ support being tested now on a quick drop.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 12:50:00 PM

15-minute Keltner support is trying to firm up under the OEX from 564.58-564.82, but the OEX still challenges that 4/01 high, unable yet to push above that level. It's maintaining the breakout level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, but only barely.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 12:48:11 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with price edging sideways/lower. The 30 min cycle is ticking lower, but bears need to see a break of 36.65 to rule out what appears to be a good likelihood of an upside whipsaw. The short cycle downphase is growing bottomy after a so-far weak/corrective decline off the high.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 12:45:39 PM

The Russell 2000 still hovers just beneath the 4/01 high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:47:54 PM

June Crude (cl05m) $57.45 +0.61% (30-min delayed) .... its DAILY Pivot Levels ... $56.18, $56.61, Piv= $57.43, $57.86, $58.68. Trader's note: floor session low has been $56.30. Analysis: From day trader's perspective, this may keep equity bulls cautious. Indices have been holding near DAILY R2s, but not much bullishness above.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:44:04 PM

QQQQ $36.78 +0.60% ... "floundering" at its DAILY R2

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:39:58 PM

Alcoa (AA) $30.32 +1.13% ... back to test DAILY R1. DIA $105.18 +0.56% ... looking over its shoulder and saying "C'mon baby... c'mon"

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 12:39:17 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 12:39:05 PM

The OEX is attempting another bounce from the breakout zone on the 15-minute Keltner chart, another test of the 4/01 high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:37:52 PM

Little buy program here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:36:40 PM

Sirius (SIRI) $5.50 -1.61% ... my 5-minute interval chart has MACD at -0.002 and juuust under zero. Bulls need a kick if its to go into orbit.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:33:48 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 7,210 +0.55% ... another test coming at that 7,218-7,220 level. Sellers hit it hard on Friday. It would currently take a 44% reading for the 10-day NH/NL ratio to see a 3-box reversal higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 12:30:00 PM

QQQQ's pullback off the high has relieved the short cycle of its overbought readings, despite the weak price traction. 36.67-.70 support hasn't been tested yet. While the 30 and 60 min cycles will be looking for a downphase, the bears will need a lot more than they're currently showing to get a more significant downphase started.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:28:43 PM

Maverick Tube (MVK) $33.15 +2.25% ... nice bid today from WEEKLY Pivot ($32.49) and correlative conventional 38.2% retracement ($32.50) from 10/19/04 low to recent highs of $36.89.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 12:26:26 PM

Both the Russell 2000 and the OEX (maybe others, too) are pulling back from tests of their 4/01 highs, but not pulling back far yet. The OEX still hovers at/slightly above the breakout level on the 15-minute Keltner chart. A tentative upside target of 567.39 still remains, but this breakout is tenative as of yet, too, and difficult to trust so far. Continue to guard profits if in bullish trades.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:23:07 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Alcoa (AA) $30.28 +1.00% ... to $30.20. DIA $105.08 +0.46% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 12:21:44 PM

Session high for gold here, as well as ten year bonds at 109 49/64, TNX -4 bps at 4.43%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 12:18:51 PM

Session high for Nymex crude here, +1.1% at 56.675.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 12:17:13 PM

Gold and silver are as quiet as bonds today, holding their gains but off their highs, currently +1.20 at 428 and +.092 at 7.135 respectively. HUI is up ,21% at 199.47, XAU +.42% at 93.17. The CRB is down .37 at 308.40 despite strength in coffee, wheat and natural gas futures, with the USD Index just below its overnight highs. Refreshable USD Index chart at this Link .

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:12:26 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 12:12:04 PM

The OEX is still hovering at the daily 21- and 100-ema's. Bulls do not want to see the OEX now fall below the 130-ema's at 562.58, now that the OEX has touched the 100-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:08:55 PM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $16.07 +1.06% ... strong move here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 12:08:04 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update, with bad tick to the high of the day: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 12:05:28 PM

The OEX hovers at the breakout level on the 15-minute channel, not yet breaking down below it and not yet moving up from that level. Mixed evidence, too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 12:01:56 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 12:01:29 PM

QQQQ has just ticked below 7200 tick SMA support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 11:59:09 AM

Ten year bonds weakening slightly with TNX up to a 2.8 bp loss at 4.442%, ZN futures up .2031 at 109 43/64 here. Crude oil is firm, up .20 at 56.25, current high 56.325.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:58:51 AM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert for Alcoa (AA) $30.28 +1.00% ... to break even $30.08.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:57:09 AM

DIA $105.14 +0.52% ... just above its DAILY R2. Cognizant of "sold to you" level. Could always turn into a "buy it all back from you!"

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:55:31 AM

Alcoa (AA) $30.34 ... DAILY R1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:52:01 AM

Sirius (SIRI) $5.50 -1.61% ... thinking too... if PHF can hold a close ABOVE its WEEKLY R1, then may well hold SIRI overnight if it hasn't achieved my bullish day trade target.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 11:50:17 AM

Despite a downtick in the overbought short cycle oscillators, QQQQ is bouncing from previous resistance at 36.80, with the 7200 tick SMA rising to 36.79 here. The 30 min and 60 min cycles remain bullish, with resistance up to 36.93-.98 currently.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:47:27 AM

The OEX again tests the breakout level on the 15-minute chart, with that breakout level now being 564.47 on a 15-minute closing basis. Be careful if in bullish positions as many indices test their 4/01 highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:46:31 AM

Alcoa (AA) $30.26 +0.93% ... its WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $28.80, $29.54, Piv= $30.18, $30.92, $31.56.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:43:44 AM

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $5.50 -1.61% ... will note WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $4.99, $5.27, Piv = $5.51, $5.79, $6.03.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:36:33 AM

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $5.50 -1.61% ... day trader's chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:35:43 AM

Alcoa (AA) $30.26 +0.96% ... high of day

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 11:35:02 AM

I've reset the trendlines to fit the intraday 30 min cycle rise, and it looks like a rising wedge above 36.86 support. A break of that level on volume would project to a possible low at the bottom of the formation, currently 36.63. 7200 tick SMA support is at 36.77, below which the 30 min cycle upphase will stall. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:33:12 AM

The OEX continues testing the daily 21- and 100-ema's, inching up toward a test of its 4/01 high. So far, the 15-minute Keltner breakout signal remains valid, with a potential upside target now at 567.29. Be careful, though, if in bullish positions as this 4/01 high is tested.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:30:20 AM

The RUT has just inched a few cents above the 4/01 high. Market bulls of any stripe now want the RUT to hold onto that 620.74 high from 4/01 and do not want to see a quick reversal again, especially not one below the 60-minute 100-ema at 617.17.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:28:13 AM

The OEX has been spending this 15-minute period testing the breakout level on the 15-minute Keltner chart, finding support so far at the needed breakout level, currently at 564.32. It's also testing the 4/01 high, with the 15-minute candle itself coming awfully close so far to a tweezer-top reversal signal. Mixed evidence, but bulls want to more evidence lining up on the bullish side, fast.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 11:21:06 AM

Nymex crude just set a new high at 56.30, currently back to 56.225. The move corresponded with the downtick in equities off the highs. Bonds haven't budged.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 11:19:36 AM

QQQQ 100-tick update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:19:30 AM

RUT still testing the 4/01 high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:19:06 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 11:18:28 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan urged Congress Wednesday to limit the size of the multibillion-dollar portfolios held by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, warning that simply creating a strong regulator would not suffice.

Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:17:18 AM

There was an OEX 15-minute close above the breakout level, but the OEX tests the 4/01 high. This is a delicate point, and I'd be careful with my bullish positions, not letting profitable ones turn into losing ones. The OEX has not retraced even 38.2% of the decline off the March high, so we have to consider any bounces to be possible countertrend ones for now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:16:22 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) alert $9.10 +1.11% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 11:13:58 AM

Treasuries have held steady, not advancing with the spike in equities, TNX currently down 3.8 bps at 4.432%. Crude oil is currently down .325 at 55.725, off an earlier high of 56.025.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:13:32 AM

Attempted breakout on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart. Bulls want to see a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 564.14, and then will set a tentative upside target of 567.20 if that's accomplished. That 567-568 level was already known historical resistance, so have profit-protecting plans in place for that test, if it comes.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:11:32 AM

RUT moving ever closer to a test of that 4/01 high. In fact, I'd consider it testing that level now. There's CCI bearish divergence, but that can be erased if RUT prices keep rising.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:08:55 AM

The OEX has moved up into a test of the 21- and 100-ema's on the daily chart, with the 100-ema currently at 564.78 and the OEX currently at 564.71. So far, this is just a test. Those currently in bullish positions should be watchful at this level and should also have profit-protecting plans in place for the 567-568 level, if reached.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:07:25 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $5.50 here, stop $5.45, target $5.70.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:05:43 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,187.61, DIA $105.10, QQQQ $36.85

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 11:06:00 AM

The short cycle for QQQQ has been declining since just after 10AM. Needless to say, it has been weak and corrective- bullish. Session highs breaking as I type, 36.85 60-min channel resistance being tested here. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:04:16 AM

There's been neither a confirmation nor an invalidation of the potential H&S on the advdec line. Instead, it's just flattened, the potential formation fizzling.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:03:25 AM

The Russell 2000 is moving up toward a test of the 4/01 high at 620.74, with the RUT at 619.51 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 11:01:48 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 11:05:33 AM

I mentioned several days ago the possibility that the OEX might be narrowing its broadening formation into a diamond shape at the bottom of its decline. Certainly looks as if that's what the Dow is doing, doesn't it? These are usually reversal patterns, although at least one source, Thomas A. Meyers' The Technical Analysis Course, notes that this pattern "normally appears at market tops and not at market bottoms, since it requires a relative active (high volume) environment to develop." Not sure it's a valid formation.

Any formation should be watched for the direction in which it breaks, no matter the direction that one might think it should break.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:54:14 AM

The OEX is climbing higher, but doing so underneath next Keltner resistance, if that makes sense. It's not breaking out yet, questioning whether that resistance will at some point turn it lower again to retest stronger support. Currently, first support is at 563.11, at a line at which the OEX found support just about 15 minutes ago. Supporting lines are beginning to separate somewhat, however, with the result that support may be softening just a little. That's a preliminary assessment for now, but should be watched.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:52:22 AM

QQQQ has shot back above the broken intraday trendline after the initial dive, with the 30 min cycle upphase stalling but still in progress. 60 min channel resistance is up to 36.85, 30 min resistance up to 36.90. 36.67-.70 remains the key support area for bulls here if the price fails to break the previous 36.80 high on this bounce.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:50:50 AM

Still watching the potential H&S on the advdec line.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:50:03 AM

The RUT attempts a push higher.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:46:02 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:44:11 AM

I'm watching a potential H&S on the advdec line to see if it's confirmed (still lacking a right shoulder) or invalidated.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:43:50 AM

Headline:

10:42am AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE DATA DELAYED FOR 30 MIN

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:43:36 AM

The TRAN still tests the top of its descending regression channel. See my 10:02 post for a chart.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:42:24 AM

Update on the Russell 2000 chart from earlier: Link As I said earlier, I wouldn't trust that inverse H&S breakout until and unless the RUT sustained numbers above the April 1 high, which it hasn't not done. It's so far still finding resistance at the 60-minute 100/130-ema's. CCI tentatively flattens, although it hasn't turned lower yet. Still some mixed evidence here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:39:29 AM

2-day 30 tick chart of May crude oil at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:39:19 AM

The RLX still turns lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:37:39 AM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Alcoa (AA) $30.13 +0.50% ... to $29.95.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:37:09 AM

First 15-minute Keltner support being tested. A 15-minute close below this support will flatten the Keltner channels, but as I type, the OEX is trying to steady at that support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:36:16 AM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,183.65 +0.19%, DIA $104.82, QQQQ $36.67 (session high $36.81)

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:36:03 AM

So far, the OEX still hesitates at 15-minute Keltner (and other forms) resistance. Oops. Begins the downturn toward the Keltner support I mentioned, currently at 562.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:36:15 AM

Support line break for QQQQ here, retesting 36.67 support on a sharp drop. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:34:49 AM

One source I have says that gasoline inventories were expected to fall 1.3-2.0 million barrels, so the actual decline is more than expected.

By the way, Greenspan currently speaks on regulation of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, with the talk being available on Bloomberg TV.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:33:42 AM

Headlines:

10:31am US DISTILLATE SUPPLIES UP 0.7M BBLS IN LATEST WEEK: DOE

10:31am US GASOLINE SUPPLIES DOWN 2.1M BBLS IN LATEST WK: DOE

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:33:23 AM

Nymex crude currently holding just above the lows, down 1.16% at 55.40, current low 55.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:32:00 AM

Headline:

10:30am CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 2.4M BARRELS IN LATEST WK: DOE

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:30:58 AM

QQQQ $36.76 +0.54% .... bears would get aggressive on failure back below DAILY Pivot, target correlative DAILY S2/WEEKLY Pivot at minimum.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:29:50 AM

TRIN 1.05 +22.09% ... BEARISH divergence from this indicator here. Get the feel bears are trying to leverage off of DAILY R2s into EIA data.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:27:58 AM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:27:15 AM

Alcoa (AA) $30.18 +0.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:27:55 AM

DIA $104.95 +0.32% ... snug against DAILY R2. Breadth positive at 23:7.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:25:03 AM

With a number of 15-minute bars behind us now, here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart is showing: The OEX is facing the configuration of Keltner resistance that has been turning it back all this week, with that resistance currently at 563.70-563.80 on a 15-minute closing basis. On this test of that resistance, there's slight Keltner-style bearish divergence, but that can still be erased with a push higher. This test may be suggesting a pullback to 562.80 to retest support. The smallest Keltner channel still points higher, but a 15-minute close below 562.80 would flatten that channel. It looks as if support might then firm up somewhere near 561.25 or so, at least enough for a bounce attempt.

Take this with a grain of salt as the reaction to the inventories numbers may override these chart characteristics.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:22:53 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 415.03 +1.24% ... back above WEEKLY Pivot first time this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:21:10 AM

Ten year bonds holding the bulk of their gains, trading just off the session highs, with ZN up .2344 or .21% at 109 45/64, TNX -3.4 bps at 4.436%. On the daily chart, the TNX is holding below the descending trendline that coincides with the daily cycle downphase. That downphase has room to run, but bollinger support is close below at 4.411%: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:19:59 AM

Intra-day "moment of truth" just 11 minutes away.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:18:59 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.04 +0.44% ... updated chart of PHF from earlier this week with MONTHLY/WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link and quickly approaching $9.08-$9.09 key levels of resistance.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:16:13 AM

This test on the Russell 2000 might be important to watch: Link Note the inverse H&S confirmation, but I wouldn't be convinced ahead of a sustained move above the 4/01 high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:13:01 AM

Alcoa (AA) $30.23 +0.83% ... still under BLUE #1 which has marked session highs. Energy data just ahead at approx. 10:30 AM EDT.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:12:11 AM

The RLX opened this morning at its converging 30- and 50-sma's, and currently turns lower from that test. CCI has made a tentative cross above the zero line, however, and MACD made a tentative bullish cross, but from below signal. A strong downturn through the recent consolidation pattern could turn that CCI signal into a zero-line reversal, however.

If the RLX should manage a sustained move above its 50-sma at 433.90, next resistance will be reached near 440, with a best-fit descending trendline located there, as well as the bottom of January's gap lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:12:03 AM

TRIN 1.03 +19.76% ... creeping higher. DIA $104.92 +0.31% ... DAILY R2 just ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:10:32 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:08:29 AM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link . The persistence of 36.67-.70 support has the 60 min cycle channel joining the 30 min cycle to the upside, with resistance creeping up to 36.75, while for the 30 min cycle it's up at 36.87. So long as 36.67 support holds, both resistance levels should continue to rise as the cycles trend upward within the dominant daily cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:07:47 AM

Advdec line still climbing, currently at its highest level since 4/01, but that 4/01 mention isn't a particularly fortuitous one, considering what happened that day as the advdec line climbed above 3,000. The advdec line isn't there yet this morning, at only 2,206 as I type (according to my charting service).

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:06:02 AM

VIX.X 13.38 -2.19% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 13.45, 13.58, Piv= 13.79, 13.92, 14.13.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:04:35 AM

The OEX still pauses at the 60-minute 100-ema. It's being parked at resistance ahead of the inventories number.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 10:02:54 AM

Crude oil has reopened and is trading at the 55.425 low, -1.12%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 10:02:34 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 10:03:30 AM

The TRAN tests important resistance this morning. This chart is a bit confused, but you can see that the TRAN is currently testing the top of a descending regression channel. Within this channel, the TRAN had previously fallen to a 50% retracement of the rally off the January low and bounced from that level, near 3673.59. It also bounced from the converging 50- and 100-sma's. That suggests that an upside breakout could still be a breakout above a bull flag, but market bulls of any stripe don't want to see the TRAN find resistance here (or at the 30-sma) and then fall back through that 50% level. Link The inventories number may assume some importance today with the TRAN's behavior and the market's in general.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 9:58:50 AM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 4.2 bp at 4.428% .... Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.04 +0.44% ... Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.58 +0.11% ... shorter-term durations may be losing favor should Fed discontinue rate hikes. Last week I noted EVV cut its monthly dividend.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 9:57:08 AM

The BIX climbs today, too, currently above yesterday's high. The BIX climbs within a formation that might be a rough bear flag, however, not yet having retraced even 38.2% of the last drop, off the March high.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 9:55:34 AM

The Fed's open market desk has rolled the expiring 3B repo with a 3B overnight repo, no net change for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 9:54:19 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 9:54:02 AM

Gold and silver are holding positive, gold up 1.40 at 428.20 and silver +.069 at 7.112. HUI is up .41% currently at 199.84, XAU +.32% at 93.08.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 9:51:23 AM

The OEX still battles the 60-minute 100-ema. Sixty-minute CCI still turns higher, still not at extreme levels, either, so it's still possible that the OEX will rise or continue to challenge this resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 9:49:44 AM

36.67-36.70 QQQQ holding for the pullback: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 9:46:24 AM

The OEX hesitates at the 60-minute 100-ema, but hasn't pulled back strongly yet. CCI still turns higher. We could see a rally higher or a continued testing of this level, but bulls don't want to see a 60-minute close below the 21-ema at 560.69.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 9:45:16 AM

Alcoa (AA) $30.17 +0.63% ... day trader's chart at this Link along with yesterday afternoon's "sell program premium" observations.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 9:44:20 AM

The last time the 60-minute 100-ema was pierced was during the first hour of trading on 4/01. You can imagine my hesitancy at believing whole-heartedly in this rally, especially as it comes within a broadening formation. Link

Tab Gilles : 4/6/2005 9:54:54 AM

The Home Depot (HD) Weakening housing market with interest rising perhaps? Spring is suppose to be the peak sales time for HD, yet they see weakness? How strong is retail and housing? Watch Support/Resistance level at $37.50.Flat to weaker growth for Home Depot By William Spain, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 4:24 PM ET Jan. 13, 2005 CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Home Depot is apparently facing slightly lower growth in 2005 as the retail giant set targets for double-digit increases in sales and earnings that, while robust, will be below this fiscal year's pace. On Thursday morning, Home Depot (HD: news, chart, profile) said it expects fiscal 2005 sales to rise between 9 percent and 12 percent, and earnings per share to grow 10 percent to 14 percent on a same-store sales bounce of 4 percent to 7 percent. The company will also open 175 new stores and pony up $3.7 billion in capital spending.... Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 9:38:25 AM

Bullish trade long alert for Alcoa (AA) $30.08 +0.33% here, stop $29.70, target $30.57.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 9:37:06 AM

Advdec up strong, but not advdecv. I'm interested on Jane's take on this as I'm not used to watching advdecv as closely as Jane might be.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 9:35:39 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart at this Link . Bulls need support at 36.675-36.70 for a sustained/trending upside move from here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 9:34:16 AM

Daily TNX chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 9:34:02 AM

The OEX tests daily Keltner resistance as well as the daily 21/100/130-ema's. It's above the 130-ema, below the 21- and 100-ema. The OEX also tests the important 60-minute 100/130-ema's, at 563.34 and 564.68. The upper boundary of the broadening formation is now at just over 568, so any in bullish positions should certainly have profit-protecting plans in place if that level should be tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 9:32:26 AM

Headlines:

9:30am FNM , FRE GREENSPAN: FANNIE, FREDDIE LIMITS WON'T HURT HOUSING

9:30am FNM , FRE GREENSPAN BACKS LIMITS ON FANNIE, FREDDIE MTG. HOLDINGS

9:30am FNM , FRE GREENSPAN BACKS NEW FANNIE MAE, FREDDIE MAC REGULATOR

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 9:32:04 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $42.40 +1.24% ... strong open.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 9:31:56 AM

Ten year treasuries are strong, with ZN futures up .25 at 109 23/32, TNX down 3.6 bps or .81% at 4.434%. Daily TNX chart to follow.

Tab Gilles : 4/6/2005 9:28:26 AM

Jeff I agree market should be strong today. Eaton Vance EVV Coming down to retest recent lows, as it did last year. Link Pacholder PHF Nice chart, strong. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 9:27:45 AM

Pre-market most actives ... MCIP $24.85 -0.63%, SEBL $8.13 -11.14%, RIMM $71.06 -4.35%, SIRI -1.96%, OXGN $4.27 +14%, NYER $3.12 +15%, NTAP $28.20 +3.6%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 9:25:19 AM

QQQQ is holding its gains, pegged right at the top of the 30 min cycle channel, just below the 60 min channel top. The strength from yesterday afternoon aborted the 30 min cycle downphase and the resulting upphase continues. However, the 60 min oscillators have yet to join in, setting the stage for a choppy-to-weak open if QQQQ fails to break 37.70. However, any weakness will be corrective within the broader daily cycle, reversing from above yesterday's low. Putting it all together, a failure to break 36.70 should see consolidation, either sideways or in a light pullback for the morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 9:23:27 AM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 3.6 basis points at 4.434%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2005 9:22:42 AM

Could be a strong day for equities ... e-mini S&P futures (es05m) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 9:18:17 AM

Beginning Monday afternoon, I began speculating that it might be possible for the OEX to narrow its broadening formation into a diamond shape. Because of that possibility, I was watchful for a possible tightening of the OEX's range that might extend a day to a few days. So, after returning last night after traveling to look at charts, I wasn't surprised to see the OEX having ended the day again below its daily 21/100/130-ema's after attempting to punch up through the 130-ema. Those averages are at 564.79, 564.78 and 562.55, respectively. The OEX also remains above the 200-sma and -ema's, at 553.82 and 557.37, respectively. It's caught between support and resistance. Until there's a clear breakout one direction or the other, we're in for more miserable trading conditions, I believe. Although the broadening formation's boundaries are now wider than those averages listed above as support and resistance, I believe breakouts through those averages now serve as well as those broadening trendlines as parameters for those breakouts.

There's a problem with an upside breakout. The OEX hasn't even seriously approached either the 38.2% or 50% retracement of the decline off the March high, with those at about 567.20 and 570.98, respectively. An apparent upside breakout will soon slam into those resistance levels, and a bounce can't begin to be considered truly bullish until it has maintained values above the 50% retracement, at least. Therefore, even after a breakout, any upside movement must for a time be considered countertrend.

Futures action suggest that we might see another retest of the 21/100/130-ema's this morning.

Tab Gilles : 4/6/2005 9:14:12 AM

$USD/$GOX Testing the 85 level on the Dollar. Question now is will the Dollar strength continue and gold decline? Or will the Dollar's longerterm slide remain intact? Link

Gold 9:09AM; BID $424.90 / ASK $425.40; +0.80/ +0.19%; low 423.80/ high 425.70

EUR/USD @ 1.2854 $USD 84.80

Tab Gilles : 4/6/2005 8:47:23 AM

NDX Nasdaq100 Bullish Divergence Link $NASI Nasdaq Summation not giving reversal confirmation as of yet. Link

Jane Fox : 4/6/2005 8:24:19 AM

Date line CNN Prince Rainier of Monaco has died at age 81, the palace reports.

Linda Piazza : 4/6/2005 7:25:24 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei climbed last night, as did most other Asian markets, helped by a decrease in crude prices. European markets trade somewhat timidly this morning as various economic numbers are released. Our futures climbed during the overnight session, dipped strongly about 5:00, and now test double-top levels. As of 5:45 EST, gold was up $1.20, and crude, down $0.17 to $55.87. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Three main impacts on the Nikkei Wednesday were Alan Greenspan's speech terming the rise in energy prices a frenzy, saying they may moderate, an actual decline in crude prices overnight, and the Bank of Japan leaving rates unchanged, as expected. One article notes that this is the first time in more than a year that the rate-change decision wasn't unanimous.

The Nikkei opened near the flat-line level and climbed Wednesday. It stopped climbing early in the afternoon session and closed just off its high of the day, up 52.85 points or 0.45%, at 11,827.16. Exporters rose while some oil-related issues declined. After a report from UBS AG claiming that earnings at Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. would benefit from increased freight traffic from Asia and North America, shipping-related issues rose. Toshiba also rose, benefiting from reports that it sold its position in a joint venture mobile phone business in China to Nanjing Postal Telecommunications, exiting the mobile phone business in China.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but more rose than declined. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.11%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.56%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.37%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.36% despite 1.5% and 1.6% losses in PetroChina Co. and Sinopec, respectively, with these being oil and gas producers. China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.94%.

European markets trade somewhat timidly this morning, off their highs of the day. Most benefited from lower crude prices in early trading. The eurozone's March retail sector PMI rose to 48.5, climbing from February's 47.3, but remaining under the benchmark 50 contraction/expansion number. Germany's number climbed above the benchmark 50, to 52.4. As happened yesterday with service-sector PMI's, Germany and Italy showed improvements while France and Spain weakened. The eurozone's February retail sales rose 0.3% month over month, rising more than expected. The 0.5% month-over-month rise in non-food items was less than January's 0.8% rise, but still the numbers were good overall. However, Germany's February Manufacturing Orders came in much weaker than expected, at a decline of 2.6% month over month. This did match the whisper number, however. This number questions Germany's economics minister's claim for a gradual economic recovery, some feel.

Other influences are news in the pharmaceutical/healthcare sector and Siebel's warning Tuesday night. Competitor SAP dropped in early trading. In the pharmaceutical sector, Roche, Genentech and Biogen Idec announced that a Phase II study of a drug for rheumatoid arthritis met its primary endpoint. Serono, however, discontinued two clinical trial programs for its Onercept after sepsis occurred in two patients and one died. German company Fresenius Medical Care fell after the U.S. Department of Justice subpoenaed its U.S. subsidiary in an investigation into various aspects of its anemia management program.

As of EST, the FTSE 100 had lost 2.30 points or 0.05%, to trade at 4,940.60. The CAC 40 had gained 11.40 points or 0.28%, to trade at 4,099.34. The DAX had gained 3.89 points or 0.09%, to trade at 4,366.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/6/2005 7:05:43 AM

Equities are higher, with ES trading 1187.75, NQ 1495, YM 10503 and QQQQ +.13 at 36.69. Gold and silver are up, as are ten year treasuries, +.125 at 109 19/32. Crude oil is down .275 at 55.775.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

I have to leave and will be back at the cash open.

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