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Jeff Bailey : 4/8/2005 12:46:53 AM

Cendant (CD) $20.95 Link ... late Wednesday, compay updated guidance after recent spinoff of mortgage unit. Story at this Link I would reiterate a bullish longer-term look, however, should we get a chance to sell the three (3) CD May $25 Calls for $0.40 I would look to exit that position.

Jeff Bailey : 4/8/2005 12:49:17 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $28.71 +0.41% Link ... S&P reiterates 3 STARS "hold" rating and raises target to $29 from $25 based on its discounted-cash-flow and relative valuation metrics.

Jeff Bailey : 4/8/2005 12:48:40 AM

Sony (SNE) $40.54 +1.35% Link ... said late Thursday that it sold more than 500,000 PlayStation Portables (PSPs) in its first two days of marketing in the U.S. The gadget, which is being targeted at adults, can also play movies and music. Sony is selling the units for $249 and hopes the new product will help the company regain some ground against Apple Computer's (AAPL) $43.56 +2.90% Link iPod mucic player.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:53:34 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.40 and set for program selling at $+1.94. If you would like to watch these execution levels the symbol is $PREM.X for those using QCharts.

OI Technical Staff : 4/7/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 6:01:21 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 5:18:49 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 5:06:30 PM

Closing Internals at this Link recent action at the NYSE now has the more intermediate-term 10-day NH/NL ratio reversing up the needed 3-boxes (44%). Shorter-term (5-day) and intermediate-term (10-day) bullish leadership resumed. NASDAQ trailing (as usual) and would currently take a 34% reading to reverse up 3 boxes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 4:44:11 PM

MapInfo (MAPS) $12.90 +5.65% ... strong on the Autodesk (ADSK) $33.21 +3.55% earnigns today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 4:32:58 PM

QQQQ ... $36.94 +1.20% ... going by at $37.03 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 4:30:00 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link Today's Activity ... Day trade shorted shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) at $$23.61, stopped $23.70. ($-0.09, or -0.38%) Day trade long shares of Intel (INTC) at $23.28, stopped at $23.32 ($+0.04, or +0.17%) Explanation for those new to the MM ... in the above LINK and MM Portfolio, those securities labeled "benchmark" is the PRICE the underlying security was trading when the FIRST option trade was profiled. The Cost is displayed in order for traders to get a feel/observation of how much capital would be required if X-number of shares were shorted (if long put) or bought (if long call), where number of option contracts would represent an equivalent number of shares in the underlying benchmarked security. The only STOCKS currently OPEN PROFILED in the portfolio (as if an actual trading account) are 200 shares of ALTI and 200 shares of MVK. The TRIN indication may be helpful on an intra-day basis when checking in on the portfolio when I update during the day. The VIX.X indication may be helpful intra-day, but more useful over time to see the impact (good or bad) on various option premiums PROFILED in the portfolio. This information may also be USEFUL to traders that trade other ideas they generate on their own.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 4:01:05 PM

Intel (INTC)

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 4:00:33 PM

Well, I can't stop typing "broadening formation," but I can stop typing "below the resistance offered by the daily 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 3:54:46 PM

For reference as the OEX pulls back, the OEX's daily 21/100/130-ema's are at 564.69, 564.76 and 562.60, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:52:46 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL)

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:52:07 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $28.59 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:51:46 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $23.74 +1.75% ....

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:51:03 PM

Bullish day trade exit/stop alert on Intel (INTC) $23.32 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 3:49:22 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase has made it to the top of its range and is showing a slight downtick from overbought territory, opposed to the still-climbing and not-overbought 60 min cycle. Ditto the daily cycle upphase, which, despite only nominally higher highs and lows for the day, is also pointed higher. Current 30 and 60 min channel resistnace are at 36.98-37.00, and barring an upside trending move in the 30 min cycle, the day highs and the 30 min cycle highs should be in. A break below 7200 tick SMA support, being tested now, would kick off the new 30 min downphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 3:46:42 PM

The TRAN found support today on its 30-sma and the 50% retracement of the rally off the January low, bouncing back up through the 50-sma. Yet, it's still in the descending regression channel, not breaking up through that channel yet. It's still in a downtrend off the March high. Sure would feel better about the sustainability of any rally if the TRAN were participating more fully.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2005 3:38:20 PM

Dateline WSJ Just how high would oil prices have to rise in order to tip the U.S. economy into recession?

Last summer, one-third of economists who participated in The Wall Street Journal Online's economic forecasting survey said a recession would follow if crude-oil stuck in between $50 and $59 a barrel -- exactly where futures prices have traded since late February.

But the economy isn't in peril today and, in the latest forecasting survey, the economists have changed their minds. None feel that $50 oil will trigger a recession. Thirty-one percent said they feel oil would have to be sustained at $80-89 a barrel to snuff out growth, while 48% believe crude would have to top $90.

Despite some recent spikes in oil prices, the economists don't expect energy prices to reach levels that would endanger the economy. In crafting their forecasts for growth this year, the economists, on average, say they have assumed that oil would remain at around $47.46 a barrel.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 3:37:03 PM

The upper boundary of the OEX's broadening formation has now risen to just under 570. Historical resistance might still be found at 566-568.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:38:14 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.61 +1.55% ... looks just like Intel (INTC). DAILY R2 at $32.69. WEEKLY R1 higher at $32.79. Just above May's "Max Pain" theory of $32.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:34:16 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $32.61 +1.55% ... looks just like Intel (INTC). DAILY R2 at $32.69.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:33:27 PM

June Crude (cl05m) $55.40 -2.61% ... looks to have settled right at its DAILY S2. Intel (INTC) $23.39 ... DAILY R2 just ahead at $23.43. QQQQ $36.90 +1.09% ... little "doji" on its 5-minute chart with open/close at $36.91 (MONTHLY Pivot). Break to new session high could see DAILY R2 quick.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 3:31:03 PM

OEX resistance near 566.58 (15-minute closing basis) appears to be firming now. We'll find out soon, as the OEX is rising to test it. The three-minute chart is beginning to show some Keltner-style bearish divergences.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:28:26 PM

No buy/sell program premiums since that one sell premium at 01:05-01:10 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:26:22 PM

SPX 1,190.60 +0.55% ... just barely traded its MONTHLY Pivot (1,191.13)

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:24:56 PM

QQQQ $36.90 ... 3,000,000 shares for the 5-minute interval of 03:00-03:05, with QQQQ $36.89-$36.95.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:23:31 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Intel (INTC) $23.39 +1.47% ... to $23.32. I will not be carrying this one overnight as I will be out of the office all day tomorrow (funeral).

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 3:20:59 PM

The SPX again tests the converging 30-, 50- and 100-ema's. That looks like pretty tough resistance, but if the SPX is going to rise into a right shoulder for a potential H&S on its daily chart, before we know if the formation is going to be rejected or roll over into a right shoulder, symmetry suggests that it might rise as high as 1218 or so over the next week or two. There is no guarantee that the SPX will rise into that right shoulder, so this test is important to watch.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 3:20:10 PM

QQQQ $36.92 +1.15% ... should go out at the high of the day. Intel (INTC) $23.38 +1.43% ... just off its high of the day $23.42. BLUE #3 right here with BLUE #4 as an achievable target at $23.47.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 3:16:35 PM

100 tick chart of QQQQ at this Link . Yesterday's (and Tuesday') lows held, but by less than 5 cents, and yesterday's high was broken, but by no more than 5 cents. The bulls have held it together, but today's action as it currently stands (barring a meltup into the close) has been very close to a sideways move.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 3:11:50 PM

The OEX again erases the breakout signal. Again, as I cautioned this morning, I want to reiterate that this doesn't mean that the OEX can't climb. Obviously, it can. However, any climb is more vulnerable to being stopped by resistance than it would be otherwise.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 3:05:35 PM

OEX falling back already below the breakout level on the 15-minute Keltner channels, which suggests that the resistance is holding.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 3:04:53 PM

New breakout being attempted on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart. Bulls want this to hold and not to leave only a candle shadow above the breakout level by the close of this 15-minute period. That's currently at 566.46.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 3:03:35 PM

Yesterday's high has now been broken for QQQQ. 30 min channel resistance is currently 36.99, 60 min resistance 36.95. Unless price breaks below 36.80 from here, those levels should continue to rise.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 3:00:48 PM

Headlines:

3:00pm US FEB. CONSUMER CREDIT RISES 3.1% ANNUAL RATE

3:00pm US FEB. CONSUMER CREDIT RISES $5.5 BILLION

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 3:00:34 PM

Today has been a day when potential bearish formations keep setting up, but don't confirm, so the bullish underpinning remains evident. However, I continue to urge those in bullish positions to have profit-protecting plans for OEX 567-568, and even as low as the current 566-ish level, too, as I warned earlier. The OEX has moved above the daily 100/130-ema's, but only inched above the 4/01 high, not exactly inspiring confidence, and it won't break out of the broadening formation for a couple of points yet, if it does break out. That makes all this going on within that broadening formation, and trading is iffy within those.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 2:58:58 PM

QQQQ's pegged to the high of the day with the Consumer credit report due in 1 minute.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 2:51:52 PM

So far, the OEX has not been able to create a new breakout signal as it tests the Keltner resistance at 566.30-566.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 2:49:37 PM

Big sell spike here at the highs- looks like 1.2M QQQQ shares within 100 ticks: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 2:48:14 PM

Don't forget the Consumer Credit report due in 12 minutes, est. +7.5B.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 2:46:54 PM

Back to find QQQQ challenging yesterday's high. A break here will restore a bullish picture cycle-wise, with this morning's higher low forming the other piece of the daily cycle puzzle. The 30 min cycle is pointing north, as is the short cycle.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 2:43:06 PM

Next potential 15-minute Keltner resistance on the OEX is from 566.17-566.31 now. Bulls want to see 15-minute closes above this level, while bears want to see 15-minute closes beneath it.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 2:31:27 PM

So far, the nearest Keltner resistance near 564.86 is holding on 15-minute OEX closes. Next support is near 564 and next resistance is from 565.69-566.12.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 2:19:49 PM

The OEX did move down to test the next Keltner support near 563.90 (563.94 low) as Keltner channels had suggested it would do. (See my 1:48 post.) Now it's rising from that support to test resistance again, at the current 564.90-ish level and then higher, at 565.86-566.16. As was true yesterday after the OEX created a breakout signal and then erased it, it's going to be this test of resistance that tells us much about what to expect. Bears now want it to find resistance on 15-minute closes below the Keltner line currently at 566.16.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 2:18:10 PM

Crude oil is stalled at current levels, currently down 3% at 54.175.

Stepping away for 15 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 2:08:04 PM

The SPX has been one of the first indices to challenge the converging 30-, 50- and 100-sma's on the daily chart, with those averages all converging from 1191.43-1193.30, in a tight, less-than-2-point range. We can see that same converging of these averages on many indices, including the OEX. So far, the SPX has pulled back today (and other days) from this test, but that range might be watched. Daily CCI is attempting a timid push above the zero line. Bulls don't want to see a strong downthrust that might turn that tentative bullish sign into a bearish zero line rejection.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 2:03:32 PM

Crude oil is up off its 53.875 low to 54.15 here, -3.04% for the day with 27 minutes left in the Nymex day session.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 2:01:47 PM

100 tick QQQQ chart update at this Link with QQQQ now chopping sideways below 7200 tick SMA resistance, the first such extended perioud. A break of 36.66 is needed to seal the deal for the 30 min cycle rollover.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 2:00:00 PM

I was surprised to see that the Russell 2000 wasn't performing better today than it is. It's risen, but it hasn't yet topped yesterday's intraday high, although coming close enough to create an equal-high situation, almost a triple-top situation. It is currently off today's intraday high. It hasn't confirmed the double-top formation by a push through the trough between the two highs, at 614.43, but it's definitely pulled back.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 1:48:59 PM

The OEX did not hold at first Keltner support, but instead moves down toward support near 563.90. Resistance firms near 566.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/7/2005 1:45:19 PM

Buying DELL August 40 calls at $1.30 at 200 ema support.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 1:43:39 PM

QQQQ breaking 7200 tick SMA support here. Bears need a break of 36.66 to kick off the 30 min cycle downphase.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 1:40:10 PM

After tumbling since midday yesterday, the TRAN has been climbing this morning, at first zooming up and then appearing to settle into a corrective move higher. It's retraced a little more than 38.2% of the plunge, perhaps headed up toward the 50% retracement at 3711.72, but I'm wondering about the Fib bracket. It doesn't show strong correspondence to the places at which the TRAN is consolidating on its way up off the low. A Fib bracket off the last part of the plunge, beginning on the 2:30 fifteen-minute candle yesterday, seems to show better coherence, with the TRAN currently consolidating at that 50% level at 3705.65, with the TRAN currently at 3702.40 and dropping a bit. The formation could still be a bear-flag climb off the low, then.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 1:38:10 PM

QQQQ 100-tick chart update at this Link with the previous high not broken, leaving an intraday double top at 36.85. Session low for ten year notes as I type at 109 13/32, with TNX up 4.2 bps at 4.478%.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/7/2005 1:37:27 PM

COMP key support is 2012 going into the close.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/7/2005 1:36:00 PM

I'm a buyer of DELL on any pullback to 38.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 1:29:54 PM

Big drop in QQQQ volatility today, QQV -4.72% at 15.56.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 1:28:41 PM

The just-about-to-be-completed 60-minute OEX candle is not a bullish one. It's come at the top of a climb and has left a long upper shadow behind. It's not a reversal signal in and of itself, but should be watched.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 1:25:53 PM

I'll be away for the next hour or so, but should be back by 03:00 PM EST ... "for the most important hour of the day!" - Tyler Mathisen

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 1:25:52 PM

Make that 53.95 for crude. QQQQ retesting the previous high.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 1:23:59 PM

New low for crude at 54.10, now -3.13%. Gold and silver have ticked negative, but nothing like the pasting being administered to oil.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 1:23:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 1:19:48 PM

Daily chart of May crude oil: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 1:19:07 PM

The OEX attempts a bounce now. Bulls will want to see it push above 565.97-566.05 on 15-minute closes to create a new breakout signal. Bears want it to abort any rise at all, but to continue 15-minute closes beneath that zone if it does rise.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 1:16:55 PM

New low for crude, now down 2.69% at 54.35. Despite the steep drop in bonds, QQQQ is holding the rising 7200 tick SMA, though not by much. A break below 36.66 is the goal for bears here, so long as the current high doesn't get broken first. Volume remains light for QQQQ at 45.4M shares so far. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 1:15:04 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) that recent sell program premium makes some sense. Here's the chart of es05m I showed early yesterday morning, which we follow on an ongoing basis. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 1:10:30 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) surging ... up 3.0 bp at 4.466%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 1:10:20 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- OPEC crude production in March rose to 250,000 barrels a day to 29.83 million b/d, according to a survey by Platts released Thursday. The survey indicates that production by 10 OPEC member countries with quotas exceeded by around half a million barrels per day the new 27.5 million b/d limit agreed to at a March 16 OPEC meeting. Saudi Arabia had the biggest single output increase with 150,000 b/d to 9.4 million b/d, said Platts.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 1:09:53 PM

The OEX has now erased the breakout signal on its 15-minute chart. That doesn't mean that it can't continue to climb, but it does mean that overhead resistance can now have the chance to firm and hold back advances. First Keltner support may be giving way as I type, with the OEX violating the ascending regression channel off yesterday's low. Next support is near 563.75-564.02.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 1:06:56 PM

Looks like somebody else not all that impressed.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 1:06:39 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,188.26, DIA $105.24, QQQQ $36.74

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 1:05:37 PM

Unimpressed from the bullish side with NASDAQ internals.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 1:06:02 PM

The OEX is back below the breakout zone on the 15-minute chart, but this 15-minute period has only just begun and hasn't closed yet. Still, it's not a sign that bulls want to see. The OEX hasn't breached its ascending trendline off yesterday's low yet, either, with that line again at about the same level as first 15-minute Keltner support at 565.19.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 1:05:01 PM

TRIN 1.07 -5.30% ... did see high of day at 1.13 as the majors moved to highs of session. Would strongly suggest selling into that strength.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 1:01:59 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 1:01:48 PM

QQQQ still never made it to yesterday's high. Because the daily cycle upphase is predicated on higher daily highs and lows, the failure to break fresh ground is telling. Note also that volume is light for QQQQ, another potential sign of weakness. A lower low (below 36.42) is the next condition bears want to see fulfilled. But first, support at the last intraday high at 36.79 needs to break. Session lows for bonds as I type here, ZN futures down at 109 9/16 and falling. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:58:57 PM

Brokers (XBD.X) 146.20 +0.27% ... best of session.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 12:57:55 PM

Breakout level on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel holding so far, but only tentatively.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:56:53 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) whips back higher now. up 0.5 bp at 4.441% ... asset reallocation?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:55:11 PM

Updated 2-day chart of Nymex crude: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:52:31 PM

e-mini S&P (es05m) 1,194.00 +0.39% (10-min delayed) ... testing that "zone of resistance" from 1,194.60-1,195.75

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:52:48 PM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link , reversing from the channel top. First support is the prior high at 36.79.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:50:35 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $23.77 now

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:50:06 PM

Intel (INTC) $23.26 +0.91% ... "just like" the QQQQ perhaps. DAILY R1 $23.24 with WEEKLY Pivot $23.20 and WEEKLY R1 $23.46. Yesterday's high was $23.31.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 12:49:52 PM

There's been a breakout on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, like yesterday morning's. This time, bulls want to see the OEX hold onto the breakout level on 15-minute closes, with that level being currently at 565.80. It didn't hold on yesterday. Coming down to test the breakout level now. If it does hold, the upside target is 568.02, but if in bullish positions, I'd be protecting profit from 567-568 and maybe even begin being particularly careful as low as 566, already hit.

Tab Gilles : 4/7/2005 12:48:22 PM

$SOX.X Semiconductor Index has been stuck in a sideways range 410/420. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:48:11 PM

QQQQ $36.84 +0.90% ... pegged its MONTHLY Pivot yesterday. Still tentative here, but seeing some volume on that move above WEEKLY R1/DAILY R1

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 12:44:49 PM

Some commented yesterday that Santomero's comments could be market moving. Maybe they did have some impact.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:44:03 PM

Here's the only candidate I've found so far to correlate with the drop in crude oil prices: Link

NEW YORK, April 7 (UPI) -- The recent run-up in the price of crude oil has lasted long enough and gone high enough to prompt Saudi Arabia to vow a matching rise in its output.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 12:43:57 PM

The OEX has now moved above the 4/01 high. Bulls now need profit-protecting plans in place for 567-568, as I've been suggesting. Bulls do not want to see a quick reversal now.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 1:14:55 PM

Is this impacting markets? Prepared text for Philly Fed Santomero's talk on monetary policy is released, with Santomero terming inflation concerns well contained. One source terms his talk less hawkish than before, as he notes this time that the Fed should be slow and cautious in moving. This gives the same flavor as the Fed's "measured" comments.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:45:36 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Intel (INTC) $23.28 here, stop $23.18, target $23.49.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:40:37 PM

May crude is at 54.45. Looking for news.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:40:17 PM

Bulls are running away with the session here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:39:38 PM

QQQQ $36.79 gets some volume to the upside.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:39:33 PM

Crude is plummeting, down 2.1% at 54.675. The bid gapped upward on the QQQQ 100 tick chart, revisiting the session high as I type. Channel resistance lines up at 36.82 for the 30 and 60 min channels.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:37:40 PM

New low for Nymex crude, -1.34% at 55.10, breaking yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:37:29 PM

QQQQ $36.74

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:37:16 PM

Bearish day trade stop alert ... NVDA $23.70.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 12:36:53 PM

Is that an inverse H&S just being confirmed on the advdec line's five-minute chart?

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:35:36 PM

2-day 30-tick chart of May crude oil here. So far, an inside day. I don't know what happened to the volume this morning, however. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:33:27 PM

New session lows for crude oil, down .375 at 55.475 just now as QQQQ flips back above the 7200 tick SMA.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 12:32:25 PM

Potential double-top and H&S formations on the OEX 15-minute chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 12:28:37 PM

The OEX has been testing the first 15-minute Keltner support at a line currently at 564.53, with that support so far holding. The OEX is still testing a right-shoulder level for a potential H&S, not yet having either invalidated it or convincingly rolled down into a right shoulder, either.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:27:15 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $23.59 +1.11% ... day trader's chart at this Link with some tie into today's QQQQ action.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:22:08 PM

First downside break of the 7200 tick SMA for QQQQ today, with the 30 min cycle top ticking 2 cents lower to 36.83. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:20:47 PM

Nymex crude oil up a dime at 55.95 here. Gold has given back its gains, with June gold flat at 429.10, silver +.006 at 7.124. HUI and XAU are drifting in positive territory, +.6% at 201.41 and +.45% at 93.9 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:14:59 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 12:14:37 PM

The OEX rises again to test 15-minute Keltner resistance, the top of a shoulder for a potential H&S, the daily 100-ema, etc.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:12:03 PM

QQQQ's bouncing here to challenge the ongoing short cycle downphase. A failure below the day high will confirm it, while a break above will whipsaw it to the upside.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 12:11:16 PM

I've spoken about a potential H&S on the OEX's chart and there are potential H&S on some other indices, too. The TRAN had one, too, a sloppy one, confirmed this morning. The TRAN more than met the downside target.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 12:03:44 PM

Ten year treasuries have weakened further, TNX now up to a 2.2 bp loss at 4.414%. ZN futures are down to a .1406 gain at 109 27/32.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 12:01:53 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 11:57:56 AM

100-tick QQQQ update at this Link with the short cycle in a new downphase, the 30 min cycle upphase stalling, and price holding right on rising 7200 tick SMA support. Another few cents of downside for another few minutes should be enough for a new 30 min cycle downphase. Note that yesterday's high was never revisited- the first violation of the daily cycle upphase, if it holds.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 11:56:43 AM

The OEX continues to ease lower off the 15-minute Keltner resistance, but it hasn't even broken the ascending trendline off yesterday's low yet. That ascending trendline would hit at about the same level as first Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, at about 564.29. If the OEX is strong, it will continue 15-minute closes above this Keltner line.

Remember that a H&S remains possible, but also that all of this is occurring within a broadening formation, as daily 100/130-ema's are being tested. Lots going on and lots of possibilities to be weighed here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:57:07 AM

Bearish day trade short alert ... for NVIDIA (NVDA) $23.61 here, stop $23.70, target $23.25.

Tab Gilles : 4/7/2005 11:55:24 AM

EVV Eaton Vance Limited Duration Fund Retesting recent lows at $17.50. Would like to see a lower low and a bullish divergence on the MACD/RSI. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:51:25 AM

I have to leave from 01:30-3:00 today and am hesitant to profile any day trades if I'm not here to follow them. I still may profile a trade with clear stops, targets, but won't be around to issue stop/target al_rts.

Tab Gilles : 4/7/2005 11:50:47 AM

XLB Basic Materials Sector Bounced off 100-ema/ crossed over 50-ema. MACD(crossover) & RSI rising. BULLISH! Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 11:50:39 AM

QQQQ testing 7200 tick SMA support here, with the short cycle oscillators rolling over. Volume is light so far.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:45:37 AM

Nyer Medical (NYER) $3.08 -9.67% ... #1 "unusual volume" stock getting slapped today. Back to yesterday's gap up.

Tab Gilles : 4/7/2005 11:43:19 AM

For those interested in trading sectors of the market and using leverage, (I use the Profunds, Rydex is good too). I've provided a link with the sectors I track and their relative funds. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 11:40:26 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link showing no fireworks on the support line break so far, with the key 7200 tick SMA support untested so far. A short cycle downphase is due to commence- the break of 36.66 should be sufficient to kick it off.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:39:27 AM

Travelzoo (TZOO) $46.30 -3.74% ... DAILY S2 here. WEEKLY S1 at $45.12.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 11:38:22 AM

The OEX is turning down from 15-minute Keltner resistance and it doesn't appear to have yet invalidated the potential H&S just yet. Watch for potential support at the Keltner line currently at 564.17. Bulls want to see continued 15-minute closes above this level, or at least above the lines currently at 563.30. Below that, a test of the neckline of the H&S might be possible.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:33:49 AM

Brokers (XBD.X) 145.76 -0.02% ... slip red and just below their DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:37:17 AM

Looking at a possible day trade short in NVIDIA (NVDA) $23.49. Acting "funky" at daily pivot. DAILY R1 up at $23.68. QQQQ was tentative up at its DAILY R1

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 11:28:55 AM

Only a 1 cent break, but the first today. 7200 tick SMA support is at 36.66, which bears need to break in order to stall the young 30 min cycle upphase.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:28:03 AM

eBay (EBAY) $36.73 -1.21% ... gets defensive. Low of day.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 11:28:01 AM

QQQQ is testing rising intraday trendline support here at 36.73. So far, every test today has resulted in a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:26:19 AM

Gap Inc. (GPS) $21.83 +1.01% ... stock gapped lower at the open, traded $21.05, but rebounds here to high of day.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 11:25:14 AM

Bonds are edging lower, TNX up to a 2.8 bp loss at 4.408%. Crude oil is hovering a tick above unchaged, currently 55.875.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 11:24:36 AM

As the OEX approaches that 15-minute Keltner resistance at 565.42, support is beginning to soften a little. Nearest support is at 564.03, and, if the OEX is strong, it will find support there on any pullback (on a 15-minute closing basis). If it's not quite as strong, it may fall back toward next support just above 563. Below that, and we need to start watching again for a possible confirmation of the potential H&S on that 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:22:12 AM

IBM (IBM) $88.44 -0.64% ... defensive... low of day.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 11:17:48 AM

Nymex crude oil ticks green, up .05 at 55.90. The session low was 55.575.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 11:14:39 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link with price walking up beneath the rising intraday cycle channel resistances. Rising trendline support is up to 36.73.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 11:14:08 AM

The OEX approaches 15-minute Keltner resistance at 565.43, on a 15-minute closing basis. Yesterday, the OEX did break above this and create a breakout signal, only to turn down again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:10:44 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 11:08:49 AM

You know, I think I spoke too soon when I said in the chart annotations in my 11:06 post that the H&S on the 15-minute chart had been invalidated. Don't think it has been yet. Still watching.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 11:06:57 AM

An OEX 60-minute chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 11:01:55 AM

First sign of trouble for intrday QQQQ bulls will be a break of the rising trendline under today's rise: Link . The 30 min cycle will hold its upphase so long as QQQQ holds above the 7200 tick SMA, currently at 36.63.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 11:01:52 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 10:56:01 AM

Payless Shoe (PSS) $14.75 -7.63% ... sharply lower after reporting March same store sales grow 1.4% in March. Analysts were looking for +4%.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 10:52:47 AM

OEX potential H&S, in danger of being invalidated: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 10:52:46 AM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) alert 7,219 +0.38% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 10:52:40 AM

New high for QQQQ testing the 61.8% retracement of yesterday's range: Link . Breaking it as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 10:52:11 AM

China Yuchai Intl (CYD) $9.80 +34.3% ... medium duty diesel engine mfg. in China.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 10:44:55 AM

Nymex crude is down to a 30 cent gain at 56.15.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 10:42:24 AM

Ah, one of those competing bearish and bullish formations days. There's also an inverse H&S on the OEX, this one on the five-minute chart, possibly already confirmed with a descending neckline around 563.45, but with the OEX coming back down to retest the neckline. Another possibility is that it has a horizontal neckline and still lacks a right shoulder, and is moving down now into that right shoulder, the interpretation that I probably prefer. That means we have an unconfirmed inverse H&S (five-minute chart) and an unconfirmed regular H&S (15-minute chart), with today's rise toward the neckline of the inverse formation constituting part of the right-shoulder formation on the regular one.

The point is that this conflicting evidence adds to the conflicting evidence by some sector indices declining and testing support and some testing resistance. Mixed-up stuff, with evidence to reassure and scare both bulls and bears.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 10:47:06 AM

Starbucks (SBUX) $49.83 -4.41% ... April "Max Pain" theory is $50 ($5 increments). Most active options at this point are the Apr. $50 Puts (2,707:9,788), Apr. $50 Call (2,191:4,356), May $55 Call (1,230:3,157), Apr. $47.50 Put (446:3,720). The Jan07 $50 Puts (VPR-MJ) are bidding $5.90, but have not seen any action today.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 10:41:27 AM

QQQQ 100 tick update at this Link showing a shallow pullback off the 36.70 channel touch, bouncing from 36.60 support. Those channels are rising with price holding above the 7200 tick SMA support line.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 10:34:37 AM

The OEX attempts to break above an appropriate right-shoulder level for the potential H&S. The 15-minute chart shows that resistance has weakened some, with resistance at 564.41 and 565.29. Support is trying to firm beneath the OEX. It hasn't invalidated the H&S yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 10:31:36 AM

Ten year notes have firmed, TNX now down 3.8 bps at 4.398% and testing 4.4% support for the first time in this daily cycle downphase: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 10:28:43 AM

There's a potential H&S forming on the OEX's 15-minute chart, neckline at about 562.55, but needing to be confirmed by a move below yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 10:26:30 AM

Starbucks (SBUX) $50.04 -4.02% ... newly updated Form 8-K/A filed today at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 10:22:59 AM

The TRAN and RLX are weak, but testing potentially strong support. The BIX is testing potentially strong resistance (38.2% retracement of the fall off the March high). Some tech-related indices post small gains, but within congestion zones. Mixed evidence. No wonder there's congestion.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 10:19:00 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 10:17:07 AM

The TRAN is turning down again through the descending regression channel that it formed off the early March high. The 50% retracement of the climb off the January low is at about 3673.59, with the 50-dma at 3691.63 and the 100-ema at 3680.13. With the TRAN at 3696.66, a test of these various levels of support is in the making. A fall through them, confirmed by a decline below the 3/29 low, would suggest a further decline through the descending regression channel and a drop to the 61.8% retracement of the rally off the January low, at 3621.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 10:17:06 AM

Session high for 10 year notes, TNX -3 bps at 4.406% and ZN at 109 59/64.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 10:16:20 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 36.70 here, testing 60 min channel resistance with 30 min resistance at 36.72. With the short cycle indicators now overbought, we should begin to see some resistance assert itself.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 10:13:14 AM

Perhaps predictably, the RLX has again fallen to test its 200-ema and -sma's, with those averages at 423.84 and 422.19, respectively, with the RLX at 424.51. This test might be watched because of the RLX's sometimes impact on other indices.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 10:11:53 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 10:11:39 AM

Nymex crude oil is up .475 at 56.325, 45 cents off the intraday high.

Tab Gilles : 4/7/2005 10:10:35 AM

MURPHY OIL (MUR) On 4/1 10:56AM I posted this chart of MUR, indicating that the Long Legged Doji and possible followup rise towrds $104. Link

Well....we're hitting that $104 level currently. Question now is will MUR breakout of this channel? Break over recent high of $105? Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 10:09:43 AM

The OEX still tests the 60-minute and daily 100/130-ema's.

Remember that the OEX has still not retraced even 38.2% or 50% of the decline off the March high, with those levels at about 567.20 and 570.98.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 10:06:29 AM

A 7.75B overnight repo from the Fed brings the net to a 3.75B add for the day. QQQQ has broken the previous high and is now testing 36.66 resistance, 4 cents above which is the 60 min channel top. That channel should continue to rise, however, if current price levels hold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 10:05:53 AM

VIX.X 12.87 -2.12% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 12.63, 12.96, Piv= 13.21, 13.54, 13.79.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 10:02:26 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 10:01:52 AM

Headlines:

10:00am U.S. FEB. WHOLESALE INVENTORY-SALES RATIO UP TO 1.18

10:00am U.S. FEB. WHOLESALE SALES FALL 0.4%, MOST IN 2 YEARS

10:00am U.S. FEB. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 0.6% V 0.8% EXPECTED

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:57:09 AM

Starbucks (SBUX) $49.94 -4.20% ... 1.64 million. Note session low of $49.55 pegging my bearishly fit 38.2% from 02/03/05 low close. I think it will break it and SBUX eventually trade mid-$20's.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 9:56:56 AM

The OEX attempts an upside breakout out of the descending regression channel it established yesterday.

Tab Gilles : 4/7/2005 10:01:18 AM

XLB Basic Mterials MACD & 100 -ema entry point. Link Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2005 9:55:29 AM

Jonathan I love the slip of the tongue in your 9:53 post.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 9:55:41 AM

Here's what the daily Keltner chart shows: The OEX is currently testing Keltner resistance at 563.41. Several times over the last week, the OEX has tested or pierced this daily resistance, but has always closed beneath it. If it should break through this resistance, strong resistance also exists at 567.31-567.71. This matches known historical S/R., so any in bullish trades should be aware of strong resistance at the current level and then near 567-568. The current level is also the top of a descending regression channel from yesterday.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 9:54:43 AM

QQQQ failed to break 36.60 resistance, but has so far held the 7200 tick SMA support line, currently trading sideways just above it. A violation of this 10 cent 36.50-.60 range should get things moving. The short cycle continues to point up, but is stalling from the recent pullback.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 9:53:08 AM

8 minutes until Wholesale inventories, est. .7%. No work from the Fed's open market desk yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:53:05 AM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 1.6 bp at 4.420% ... DAILY S1 (44.21). Looking 4.35% in not to distant future.

Tab Gilles : 4/7/2005 9:47:56 AM

$USD 84.42 -0.26 ; Gold Bid 427.80/ Ask 428.30 +1.10 +0.26% $GOX Link

EUR/USD Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:46:18 AM

Starbucks (SBUX) $50.37 -3.35% Link ... challenging its 200-day SMA. Bears would like to see stock close below $49.57 on heavy volume of at least 10 million.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 9:46:11 AM

The OEX is testing the top of its descending regression channel, established beginning yesterday morning. Potential support still exists near 561.72-562.24 and then at 560.66 below that.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 9:43:16 AM

The three-minute Keltner charts suggest that the OEX might drop toward 562.83 (hit as I was typing) or perhaps even 562.23-562.34.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 9:42:26 AM

As it did yesterday morning, the OEX is so far testing the daily 21/100/130-ema's that have been providing resistance for so long, with those averages at 564.46, 564.71 and 562.62.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 9:40:57 AM

QQQQ 100 tick chart update at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:40:37 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 1.1 bp at 4.425%. Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.02 -0.66% ... bid/ask $9.03 x $9.09. Eaton Vance Ltd. Duration (EVV) $17.52 +0.11%

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 9:39:23 AM

The Fed has 12B in expiring repos today, based on 9B in 14-day repos and 3B in overnights. So far, 8B has been added in new 14-day repos, leaving 4B with which to deal at the 10AM announcement.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 9:37:58 AM

So far, the OEX is finding resistance at the 50% retracement of yesterday's last plunge and also at the 15-minute Keltner resistance gathering from 562.88-563.14. Support gathers near 561.70-562.13.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 9:35:55 AM

The 50% retracement of the last plunge yesterday is being tested now, with that level at about 563.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 9:34:49 AM

A short cycle upphase is in progress for QQQQ, and the 30 min cycle downphase is finished barring a break back below the 7200 tick SMA at 36.52. Current 30 and 60 min channel resistance line up at 36.69.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:34:29 AM

Alcoa (AA) $30.99 +3.06% ... trading now. DIA $104.91 -0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:33:49 AM

Alcoa (AA) ... delayed open... indicating $30.86-$31.01.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 9:33:41 AM

The OEX opens within the likely bear flag rising off yesterday's late-day low. It pushed above a 38.2% retracement of the last plunge of the day, toward the 50% retracement, and was immediately knocked back. It may be just widening that flag, but bulls don't want to see a low below yesterday's.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 9:30:43 AM

Session highs for gold and silver here at 430 and 7.175 respectively, HUI opening green.

Tab Gilles : 4/7/2005 9:29:57 AM

SPX/VIX 60 minute chart Hit resistance at 1190. Link

$NYSI - NYSE Summation Index Yesterday after close it signaled a positive reversal. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:27:05 AM

Starbucks (SBUX) $52.13 ... ticking at $50.74.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:24:03 AM

BioSource Intl. (BIOI) $6.75 ... higher at $9.06 after Bio-Rad Laboratories made an unsolicited offer to purchase BioSource Intl., a fellow maker of diagnostic test kits, for $8.50 per share in cash. The deal looks valued at about $82 million.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:21:19 AM

Identix (IDNX) $5.04 ... higher at $5.60 after company said it has been awarded a contract valued in excess of $8 million from the Los Angeles County Regional Identification Systems (LACRIS). Full release at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:17:03 AM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) down 0.3 bp at 4.433%

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2005 9:14:36 AM

Pfizer PFE $26.86 ... plunged to $23.80 in last 10-minutes, now $25.55 after government tells company to withdraw Bextra.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 9:10:39 AM

Once again, I have to use the words "broadening formation" and "below the resistance of the daily 21/100/130-ema's and above the support of the 200-sma and -ema's when describing the OEX's action. Although the OEX did close minimally above the 130-ema, it closed below the 21- and 100-ema's after having pierced them intraday. It left a long upper candle, never a bullish sign. However, it did close the day just above the 60-minute 21-ema after having rolled back down through the 60-minute versions of the 100/130-ema's. That's about the only bullish hope that appeared. That 21-ema is at 562.04.

Unfortunately, each day just prolongs the time in which the OEX trades within its recent congestion zone. There's been no breakout. When the OEX heads up to the top of that zone, things look more bullish-except when that test is quickly rebuffed as it has been a couple of times this month-and when the OEX heads down to the lower end of that zone, matters look more bearish. Neither is true yet, in my opinion: matters are congestion-ish.

With that said, the OEX entered this congestion zone headed down, and the prolonged failure of the OEX to break higher despite the presence of the supporting 200-ema and -sma's begins to look concerning for OEX bulls. The daily chart looks like a H&S in the making, lacking a right shoulder, so logic has told me that there ought to be at least an attempt to bounce up into a right shoulder, even if nothing more happens. However, bulls are going to be leery of buying when they're staring at a potential H&S and the bounce has not been a quick one.

Keltner evidence is mixed across several time frames, too, not giving a clear picture, but that's typical of congestion zones. Here's what the OEX's 15-minute chart shows: The OEX is being squeezed between building Keltner support near 561.68 and building resistance near 562.88-563.23. Both look about equally weighted, with perhaps some slight weighting in favor of support holding rather than resistance. If that resistance doesn't hold, then the OEX is just continuing that test of the daily 21/100/130-ema's at 564.60, 564.74 and 562.55. If there should be a sustained breakout above those MA's, confirmed by a move above the 4/01 high, then 567-568 would be next strong resistance, and bulls should have profit-protecting plans in place for that test. A 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 560.57 would tentatively set a downside target of 555.65.

Don't feel as if you have to trade, however. You can wait out this congestion zone until there's a clear breakout. Nothing wrong with that.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 9:09:42 AM

Session high for gold here at 429.70, +.60. Bonds are holding flat. QQQQ is trading 36.56, +.06. The 30 and 60 min cycles continue to point south, neither having reached oversold territory. On this basis, it would be reasonable to expect yesterday's strong selling to continue this morning. However, the daily cycle upphase continues to point higher, and this is a mitigating factor that would cause the intraday cycle downphases to abort early. For this reason, a failure to break 37.41 QQQQ, which held yesterday, will suggest that we've seen the brunt of the intraday downphases. A break north of 36.65 would confirm their upside reversal and re-confirm the daily cycle upphase.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 8:50:42 AM

Bonds have reversed, TNX now positive, +.4 bps at 4.44% with ZN futures at session's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 8:34:23 AM

QQQQ is up to a 1 cent gain at 36.51, NQ -4.5 at 1488.5. Ten year notes are off their highs but still positive, TNX -1.1 bps at 4.425%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 8:32:46 AM

Headlines:

8:30am DOE: GASOLINE TO AVERAGE $2.28 A GALLON THIS SUMMER

8:31am DOE: SUMMER GASOLINE TO PEAK AT $2.35/GALLON IN MAY

8:31am DOE: DIESEL PRICES TO AVERAGE $2.24/GALLON THIS SUMMER

8:31am DOE: GASOLINE MARKETS SEEN TIGHT THIS SUMMER

8:31am DOE: GASOLINE DEMAND TO RISE 1.8% THIS SUMMER

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 8:31:43 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. CONTINUING CLAIMS AT 4-YEAR LOW

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 90,000 TO 2.69 ML

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVG INITIAL CLAIMS FLAT AT 336,500

8:30am U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 19,000 TO 334,000

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 8:31:13 AM

I believe that the downgrade is minor news for WMT, but that this story might have more to do with this morning's weakness:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Senate and House were set to separately consider legislation this week that would put limits on Chinese imports unless Beijing allows its currency to become more flexible.

Sens. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., introduced an amendment Wednesday to a State Department appropriations bill that would slap a 27.5% tariff on Chinese imports if China doesn't revalue its currency within 180 days.

Lawmakers have expressed growing frustration over China's refusal to weaken the yuan's peg to the dollar. They contend that the tie has left the yuan significantly undervalued, putting U.S. manufacturers and workers at a disadvantage and contributing to the sharp rise in China's trade surplus with the United States.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 8:26:26 AM

Session lows across the board for equities.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 8:14:34 AM

A sudden spike up in ten year treasury futures, ZN to a new high of 109 11/16, with QQQQ diving to a new low at unchanged. If this was a "pre-release" of the initial claims data, my guess is that the report will disappoint. We'll find out in the next 15 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 7:52:52 AM

The BoE left rates unchanged at 4.75%.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 7:49:00 AM

The ECB has left rates unchanged at 2%. Currently, June euros are up .24% at 1.293.

Jonathan Levinson : 4/7/2005 7:39:50 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1189.25, NQ 1491, YM 10517 and QQQQ +.07 at 36.57. Gold is up a dime at 429.20, silver is down .027 at 7.091, ten year notes are up .031 at 109 47/64, and crude oil is up .725 at 56.575.

We await the 8:30 release of Initial claims, est. 330K, then at 10AM Wholesale inventories, est. .7% and at 3PM, Consumer credit, est. 7.5B.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2005 7:14:24 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei closed modestly lower, with many other Asian bourses climbing. European markets are mixed as both the U.K. and eurozone central banks make rate decisions. Both are expected to keep rates steady. Our futures spiked near the European open, but then dropped down to near the flat-line levels. As of 5:40 EST, gold was down $0.70, and crude, up $0.72. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped slightly higher at the open, but then began falling, eventually tumbling 70 points into negative territory. It bounced throughout the afternoon, eventually closing lower by 16.17 points or 0.14%, at 11,810.99. One economic release showed that foreign investors had been net sellers of Japanese equities last week.

Other Asian markets were mixed, but with more gaining than losing. The Taiwan Weighted declined 0.69%. South Korea's March consumer sentiment rose to 102.2 from February's 99.4. A reading above 100 means that optimists outnumber pessimists. One article notes that this is the first reading above 100 for more than two and a half years, although consumer sentiment numbers have been rising for three months. Also in South Korea, the central bank noted a gradual recovery but labeled construction investment sluggish. The central bank kept rates steady. The Kospi gained a modest 0.09%. Singapore's Straits Times gained a stronger 0.49%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.30%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.87% as the central bank approved the setting up of fund management units in three banks, an expected move.

European markets are mixed this morning as both the U.K. and eurozone await rate-hike decisions. Expectations are that both central banks will leave rates unchanged. Both the U.K. and the eurozone have seen some weak economic data over the last month, leading to the expectations for the steady rates. Retailers have been in focus both in the eurozone and the U.K. The CEO of German retailer KarstadtQuelle stepped down, citing a lack of trust with the company's board, with the stock's prices rising afterward. U.K. pharmacy retailer Boots Group also climbed in early trading after announcing that it will sell the Boots Healthcare International division and consider a sell and leaseback deal for 300 of its stores, but also issued a profit warning. The airline sector was also in focus as airlines reported airline traffic data. Air France-KLM and EasyJet rose after those reports.

As of 6:59 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 20.60 points or 0.42%, to trade at 4,968.00. The CAC 40 had gained 14.51 points or 0.35%, at 4,121.50. The DAX had lost 5.11 points or 0.12%, at 4,374.07.

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